Originally Posted by
Baa_Baa
AIR they say is cyclical, I posted a monthly chart recently to try to illustrate. Didn't get much feedback on it, perhaps because the up/down of pre-2012 had a predictability about it (20 month cycle), whereas after that the SP just chewed up three cycle period upwards ending at $3.61 (very close to the third cycle period end - spooky).
Since then the next 20-month cycle down period, has been followed by the current period, also down. So maybe there is a new super-cycle 5-years period. If so, I have technical supports at $1.82 (the .618 fib), $1.72 the recent low, $1.32 (horizontal support and .786 fib), below that is the 2012 low $0.72.
Who knows what all the factors are the make a sector cyclical (and company), TA doesn't help with the 'why' question, but one thing is for sure, this cycle is down, ending October 2020. If it really is now 5-year cycle (currently down), the sub $1 SP is in play.
Hard to believe I bought into AIR in 2012 with great expectations, sold a few years later for a very nice profit then rued not holding as it went to well over $3. Nowadays I couldn't stomach getting back into a gut churning flight on AIR unless it plumbed the depths and presented an opportunity too good to ignore.