be a couple hundred cases per day by end of month , be able to miggle on the beach with the other covid carriers pretty soon with a r factor over 1
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Yeap...people living outside Auckland have no idea what its like here.
Living under the threat of the Covid bomb feels like living under this...gives others some idea what its like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ds6mvK4olQ4
But...our forbearers fought wars for years in the trenches...all we have to do is fight this Covid war from the couch...or the ICU hospital bed if there's any left that are available :eek2: so I suppose its not so bad...
Better buck my tone up...can't have others feeling the real Auckland blues...
As you were Ladies and Gents...its all good, $3 in 3 years according to Couta1's neighbor...what could possibly go wrong lol
OCA report half year next month so i've done some sums
H!22 Underlying earnings to be about $36m (heading towards $80m full year.... eps 11 cents)
Book Value September estimated to be $1.41
so share price should be $1.75 by Christmas and over $2.00 come full year announcement May next year
"terrible grammar "
no Gamma on this stock.
some alpha coming according to WinnerGrinner.
But SUM other stock did produce the alpha.
very small font though..
Yes...I think the real NAV (Net Asset Value) including developments in progress and all units valued at current sale prices, (not arbitrarily heavily discounting unsold ones like CBRE does) will be very close to that figure but what they report will be somewhat less.
Those that believe that you get the most grunt in this sector by buying right on the real NTA should find this a compelling buy at this level....but I am wondering more and more if customers really want the "resort style" facilities that the others provide....but best ignore me today...just another groundhog day of living in Cindy's prison waiting for the Covid bomb to inevitably hit and wondering if Mrs B who staunchly refuses to vaccinate will survive the hit. Yeah, life's "just marvelous"...
I hope she changes her mind beagle.
My wife has lots of friends overseas who's family never got a chance to get the vaccine (didn't exist in scale then). They lost alot around them. The stats for vaccinated and unvaccinated overseas speak huge volumes in how effective it is. It may not stop you catching delta but the long term effects are horrible. I had a work colleague catch the originsl here in nz in the first put break. His whole family were fine but he ended up in hospital and didn't return to work till 1 month after the first lockdown has ended. You can imagine he had no problems going to get the vaccine when his time in the line came
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elepha...oint_Reyes.jpg
Unhappy shareholders barking.
I would love to think you are right Winner , that would be truly awesome but I'm thinking you're a tad optimistic.
Agree with your book value though.
Lockdown will affect this HY and the other big thing is that they are selling down their new stuff mostly in Nelson and CHCH. They don't make nearly as much new sale margins down there.
Since you've got the ball rolling, my expectations are as follows, (hy1-21...hy1-22...%difference)
Care profit 10.5m...13.5m...+28%
village profit 34.8m...31.3m...-10%
underlying profit 23.6m...25.1m...+6.3%
* note that general overheads come off the 2 profit segments which is why care and village profits don't add up to make underlying profit.
Like most of the analysts my FY profit is also $60m or so....+20% yoy.
This year the rising care profit saves the day for the falling village profits (village profits will be less this time as in the PCP 1HY21 was mostly expensive AKL apartment selling).
Beagle, you're very good at this, what say you? or are you too depressed today and just gone for the sauvignon.
Feel a bit better, (off a very low base this morning), after a good walk. My Mum used to say its not good to skite but yes I have got the last three reports regarding underlying profit, full year FY21, half year FY21, and full year FY20 very close, thanks for noticing.
To be completely honest with you this time I haven't given the half year underlying profit a lot of thought. The truth is with all their care suites and care beds and the way they report profit on those outside of underlying profit, this makes comparison with the other sector players far more difficult and invalidates direct comparisons between them on the basis of same.
With the dismal share price performance this year i am zooming out and taking a more macro focused approach on total comprehensive income, (Winners preferred approach) and looking at how that will grow in the years ahead.
I think you, I and Winner are very closely aligned on where we see the real net asset value as at 30 September, (very close to the share price) so this gives maximum bang for buck in terms of leveraging total comprehensive income in this sector over the medium to long term.
Its better for my head with where the shares price currently is to take a macro medium - long term perspective and to be honest I don't think a micro underlying profit focus for this half year when at least a quarter of it was under lockdown level 4 or 3 is especially helpful. They can continue building under lockdown level 3 so that's good but there will have been delay's with settlements and extra PPE costs so its hard to get a read on this one but my instincts, (based on all the anecdotal evidence from other sector participants and what they've reported), tell me you're probably a lot closer to the mark than Winner, not that underlying profit is especially important or the most relevant profit measure for this company.
I think its a VERY good thing that they building a lot more independent living apartments over the next few years and that's a trend I hope Brent will continue going forward from there. Their recent village acquisition in Hobsonville was a "full feature" village and I think that's what retiree's really want. I hope Brent heads more down that track with new villages they build from scratch, like the one at Pukekohe.
Long term its hard to see how you can go wrong with this one but its been a difficult year to see the share price going nowhere. I suppose after last years excitement, (I loaded up in the 60's and 70's and doubled my money), I probably should have had pretty modest expectations this year.
(Notice how I neatly avoided your question...I should be a politician lol).