Has Russel earned his million bucks bonus yet
Wasn't it 40 days over 4 bucks or something
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Has Russel earned his million bucks bonus yet
Wasn't it 40 days over 4 bucks or something
So Collins is up 90% since 15th February 2015? Ah well, good on shareholders who took that ride. Over more years the outperformance (if any) against RBD is perhaps not so good. I think we can both agree that generally both have been more than satisfactory investments over more recent times.
SNOOPY
RBD has both ends of the market covered, if the down turn comes people will go for the cheaper option for takeaways and buy more pizza's if not KFC and carls will do well
Is this share close to peaking, or do people expect to see continued performance in line with historical gains?
As a shareholder I would say the best growth years are over. There will be a big one off charge this year in recognition of Russel's $1m - after tax - bonus. Operationally everything is coming together in a most favourable way. KFC is going better than ever. Even dear old Starbucks is looking better. And most of the low hanging fruit from the Pizza Hut turnaround and sell down are picked.
So I predict a steady dividend , increasing in line with inflation. That means no big share price gains. But the dividend yield would suggest no great share price falls either. I intend to continue to hold.
Growth over and above inflation will depend on how the roll out of Carl's Junior goes, and any new food chains management decide to develop. Management's record in this regard is patchy.
SNOOPY
Taco Bell is very good product & process...amazed it never has come here...
Pizza Hut, KFC and Taco Bell are all master franchise brands owned by YUM foods in the USA. Restaurant Brands were set up with a strong position in KFC and Pizza Hut already established in New Zealand. Come franchise renewal time, YUM I think it is fair to say become rather unhappy with RBD's performance in NZ. IIRC there was talk of letting RBD continue to hold the PH and KFC franchises for another ten years, but without the previously expected right of further renewal. This wake up call was enough to galvanise RBD management into action. They embarked on a nationwide project of KFC refurbishment (only now approaching completion) and Pizza Hut transformation from a dine in restaurant chain,with takeaway option, to a takeaway deli style chain only. In recent years RBD has become more of a darling of master franchise holder YUM, pointing the way for how to turn around other overseas markets.
Before RBD took on Carl's Junior, they were actively evaluating Taco Bell. At last year's AGM, Chairman Ted said that Taco Bell was again under consideration for NZ. However, I am not sure that Taco Bell is a 'natural' for downunder. The Taco Bell brand lasted eight years in Australia before it was pulled in 2005. Thus I regard Taco Bell as not the potential cash cow in NZ that some see. I am sure a couple of restaurants could be made to work in Auckland. But that hardly justifies the cost of setting up a national chain.
It is probably politically a good move for YUM to see that RBD keeps reevaluating Taco Bell. I don't think YUM wants to upset RBD these days. And if YUM farmed out Taco Bell to another operator, Russel and Ted might get upset. I sincerely hope that Taco Bell does not come to NZ,as RBD does not need the distraction, whether they end up operating Taco Bell in New Zealand or someone else is the operator. All in all, I think Harvey's comment that 'RBD has first right of refusal', is probably the best way of thinking about it. But the best outcome, I believe, for RBD will be if Taco Bell does not come here.
SNOOPY
Interesting. Thanks Snoopy.
There would be a time at some point in the future where they will need to grow the business further, if not Taco Bell, what could the next chain be? Or do you think they would just buy out one of their competition?
Kind of looks like Starbucks will be let go at some point as they aren't really investing in the outfits of those stores. if that happens they would have to invest in another big name, any ideas what that could be?
I often wonder how much RBD can continue to be re-rated by the market
Its PE ratio keeps going up and up and on current price and consensus earnings the PE is over 17
Earnings have been a bit lumpy over the last few years as well and even F16 isn't going to be much higher than 2011 .... but PE has gone from ~10 to ~17. Nearly all the gains in share price over that time has come from a more positive market view of the company (higher PE) than the company actually growing profits
Dividends drive the price? if so when interest rates inevitably rise I wouldn't want to be holding RBD at these lofty multiples
Last few years been good, I not complaining ..... but watching those charts
See what I mean belwo
I went to the last AGM. Tough talking Ted said RBD were now known internationally as the 'go to' guys for an overseas chain wanting to establish here. They get approached all the time, so get first dibs at many new prospective concepts. I think there was some mention of a sit down restaurant chain they were evaluating; "Hooters NZ" by RBD anyone? Who knows, but there are plenty of prospects out there.
There was also mention of having another go overseas: Australia perhaps? I couldn't help notice at the AGM how old the longest serving director director, Danny Diab, looks these days. A successful Pizza Hut Entrepreneur in New South Wales in his day, but Danny has to be over 40 now. Being an old fart around the board is good as that is an appropriate avenue down which to distill your experience. But actually operating your own business at Diab's age? Come on! His back would break under the strain of three or four Pizza boxes! This is 2016, not 1987! Danny may have the body of a quadragenarian, but in these digital days that equates to the brain of a nonagenerian. Danny the dinosaur is well overdue for retirement. And what better vehicle to tip those NSW based Pizza Hut franchises into than RBD? A few of those older KFC franchise holdouts in New Zealand have done that to RBD over the last couple of years. The Victorian venture showed how not to run Pizza Hut in Australia, so -lessons learned- a return to Australia, and Pizza Hut, would see RBD immediately up to speed. Remember, you read it here first!
SNOOPY
I doubt Danny as a successful multi-store franchisee needs to work in any of his Pizza Hut stores in Sydney. He is extremely well respected and has been a senior figure representing the franchisees interests with Yum in Australia. I doubt a sale by a existing Director of his business interests to the group could be done without shareholder approval and even if it went to a vote, there are a shipload of shareholders who vividly remember the corpse that RBD left the last time they crossed the ditch. Especially when they funded it with the proceeds of the Sale and Leaseback of a number of KFC outlets where they had previously owned land and buildings.
Hooters, IMHO, is a dog. The 5 Australian outlets went to voluntary administration last year and was eventually bailed out by one of the passive investors in that business after the operators "didn't do a good job." If you can't make a buck with 3 outlets in Western Sydney and one on the Gold Coast selling wings, ribs, beer and Jack Daniels with waitresses in skin tight T Shirts and Orange shorts then it won't get off the ground here.
Taco Bell pulled back overseas expansion plans the last time RBD kicked the tyres - I vaguely recall it was about 2011 when the US business had a lot of bad press about how much beef actually was actually in their meat filling and what grade it actually was.
Disc - I hold RBD but I agree with Snoopy that the PE doesn't make sense unless you think CJs is going to return a KFC level of return at some stage
Fast food is an easy business to grow. Sure NZ is saturated and anything new is competing against yourself, but there are other avenues to explore. Gluten free, cafes, healthy takeout, classy takeout, delivered weekly lunches, etc. These ideas came to me as far as I could to type, I think with any brain power and knowledge applied, it shouldn't be hard.
Ideas are easy, actually setting up a QSR business and growing are difficult... otherwise you would know who the following are:
Uncles
Pennylanes
Red Rooster
Homestead
Chicken Spot
Pizza Haven
Spawn
Gobble
All of these have come and gone... Georgie Pie as a concept was dead rather than as a product line at McDonalds.
There's a squillion of them. It's a tough game.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...taurant_chains
Wikipedia gives a list of mainly American failures, but down under we've had Pie World come and go as well as Georgie pie. There's ben a few others.
Who could forget the Big Tex chain that extended from Paraparaumu in the south, through Levin and all the way to Foxton. :t_up: I used to shout myself a weekly burger ("hold the onions") after my Friday night job as a school boy.
PS. I didn't have a job as a school boy -- that would be weird -- I was a school boy with a job.
Some of you said this would happen
RBD buys biggest KFC franchisee in NSW
This time WILL be different eh - Russel is in charge
https://www.nzx.com/companies/RBD/announcements/278770