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Too dark to be shifting Ash
Hoop, firstly I would like to salute you for drawing a chart with a log price axis - everybody should be doing this.
Secondly I am appalled that you should write "Trying to make technicial analysis sense out of SUM is difficult..."
It goes up and it goes down where is the difficulty? You are just using the wrong model.
Thirdly I am even more appalled that you also wrote "..So how do you know which break will be geniune in the future ... ?"
You know as well as I do that TA does not accurately predict the future (neither does FA for that matter), it is a percentages and profit protection game.
But you know your current sell conditions for SUM surely?
If it meets them you sell don't you?
Then you are on the look out for (re)entry conditions and you continue to ply your TA rules, updating them as you learn.
Just for you here is a chart (and not like yours so full of stuff that it is difficult to see anything :p).
Attachment 5485
If the SP hits that second line up then start selling and if it hits the bottom line sell up completely. (And then watch it turn round and climb again maybe?)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger