Just confirming what I've been saying for a while on here now, a ripper of a year on the domestic front coming up.
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Hey couts - a neat looking plane parked up at WLG
Seems to be this Guns n Roses Airline
More competition for AIR?
Hi Winner,
Agree on your $60 oil average last year.
In late January 2016 when Brent oil hit a low ~ $30 barrel based on the conference call I listened into at their interim result in Feb 2016 I understand AIR very astutely went to their maximum allowable, (within their own pre-determined criteria) forward cover position on oil. I believe in Q1 FY17 AIR were enjoying utilizing that extremely well timed forward cover which together with more use of more fuel efficient planes augers well for some ongoing CASK improvement in IH FY17. CASK price pressure will be felt with higher fuel prices since then. They were also running the little Beechcraft 1900 planes last year that are fuel hungry for their size and have been on record saying they were losing $1m a month of that fleet last year which isn't repeated 1H FY17.
As we move into 2H FY17 they have recently taken delivery of another 3 Dreamliners (9 in total now) and are exiting their remaining fuel hungry 767's this half from March so we should see ongoing fuel efficiency gains this half, offset by slightly higher fuel prices but augmented by better yields, (recall the CPI data link I posted last week showing the substantial increase in international airfares in the last quarter of 2016).
I'm happy with my pick of ~ $240m, (its good for a bean counter to be conservative) and as I mentioned by e.mail last week I feel $260-280m is on the cards for 2H FY17.
Just my old steam powered abacus...probably miles off...we'll know a lot more in a few weeks when they report and I'll probably be miles out lol
You could well be right and the profit could be ~ $300 and CASK could really surprise to the downside. I think its possible CASK could be as low as 8.6 - 8.7 cents. Maybe we both get a big surprise in a few weeks :)
(Cask is cost per available seat kilometer in case anyone is wondering)
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d...endar-2016html
Good for AIR, THL and some other stocks.
Looks like another drop in SP today. Must be that 2.09 valuation.
Dodgy valuing going on. More transactions. More cuts. I suppose.
I was going to sell some but I'll just take my 10c divi then
Whats the general view on the 2.09 valuation anyway. Accurate or not?
In the eyes of the analyst who did the calculation very accurate
Just that others use diferent assumptions and some are driven by sentiment ...and disagree
One of my scenarios based on long term cyclical trends is that we will see $1.50 again - thats accurate as well .....but most disagree
What's your accurate guess?
Based on PE and Price/Book around the 2.14 to 2.16 mark. But im new at thus game and an yet to master better methods to master intrinsic value.
Air NZ just closed at 208 cents same price as yesterday on ASX and almost on par with NZX closing price(210Cents)...Late revival in ASX? or short covering? any guesses?
NZ dual citizens now free to travel to US
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11792372
Nice one mate. I went bird watching last evening at Auckland airport with a lovely set of binoculars my Mum gave me for Christmas. Huge number and variety of AIR birds were looking superb in the warm summer evening sun as they took off and others landed. Very pleasant way to pass an hour or so of time. A real hive of activity. Loaded up my broker call account with some more capital this morning.
Might look to buy some more if the result is a good sound one like I think it'll be.
An idea for Air NZ to ponder:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/8...in-with-owners
I suspect my big Jessie-girl would be living up to her name on a flight, but if I had to I'd rather have her in the cabin than have to sedate her, crate her and put her in the hold.
Am I right in my thinking that lower volume than the average volume coupled with an increase in SP is a warning sign? Im thinking that if volume goes up above average then the SP will follow and visa versa. Am I on the right track?
It's called the Couta effect, not documented in TA manuals specifically but comparable with divergence where one indicator (volume in this case) contradicts share price movement.
Lol just teasing, it is a divergence, which is a TA warning, but has nothing to do with our friends love affair with AIR.
Haha, thanks. So today AIR had significantly lower volume compared to the average and had a slight increase in SP. Does this signal anything or is a one off event ok. What i mean is, to see actual divergence, do we see it appear over time rather than over a single trading day.
You're talking TA now, any divergence is a warning, either way, if it continues over time the warning is re-enforced or strengthening.
This may just be a simple indication of lower volume punters, relative to the bigger funds/brokers, lining up for the excellent dividend regardless of share price.
The long holds will be loving the exposure to dividends earnings and less concerned about day to day share price movements.
That's probably the difference between capital sensitive investors and longer term earnings oriented investors.
Makes sense. Thanks everyone. I think Im more of an earnings kinda guy. But just trying to understand all sides really.
If AIR ever allow falcons to buy seats on their planes, will be the day I sell my shares.
I'd imagine it would create an extraordinary amount of extra cleaning work for the aircraft interiors. Naughty Basil has been known to love marking his territory so I can't see dogs being allowed in the main cabin as being very practical from an operational perspective with the tight turnaround times airlines are working too these days.
https://scontent-nrt1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...f2&oe=590F888A
This guy got the idea after traveling on JetStar
Our mate Christopher probably pleased he and AIR no longer involved with Virgin
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=996367
As am I :)
Really looking forward to AIRs results. I am actually thinking it will be pretty decent and in the upper range of guidance. I know there is increased competition and discounting going on but I cant get past the increase in RPKs and load factors all looking pretty solid. Domestic being the good income earner that is has been is only 0.1% lower load factor despite >7% increase in ASKs and RPKs and >5% increase in passenger numbers.
Internationally stats are looking alright so it will come down to how heavy the discounting is impacting on revenue but from my perspective looking at pricing yes there has been some good bargains but follow through on looking at them and it seems the numbers are limited.
Thinking about buying some more but AIR has a decent bite at times and I am a bit shy as a result.....
I hear that Air NZ have formed a tiger team to come up with plans to mitigate any potential damage under different scenarios if Trump's actions change the way the world travels.
Added to which, the CEO's of the big 3 international airlines in the USA (Delta, American, United) have jointly approached the Government to review the 'Open Skies' policy that (so they say) have unfairly advantaged the big Middle Eastern Airlines (Emirates, Etihad, Qatar) and the supposed help they get from their Governments.
Who knows what policies President Trump will suddenly announce that favour the US airlines everywhere. Anything is possible at the moment.
Gearing still at 4.5 times equity after all that capital raised in 2016 Ouch !! I always said that capital raise was the bare minimum. Virgin are still in a vulnerable financial position.
I am very pleased AIR extricated themselves from any financial association with them. Code sharing is fine but if get into bed with a dog, you wake up with fleas !
Only problem being you are code sharing with a cash strapped airline . I always worry about maintenance etc with airlines that are struggling financially .Much prefer just to be on AIR.NZ
Wonder if Christopher did some deep thinking over the holidays and decided that for Air New Zealand to take that next step it's time to pivot.
I'll be reading his presentations closely to see how often he uses the word pivot in 2017
A year ago when AIR share price was hovering around 300 Luxon's halo shone brightly
He then disappointed a few and some said his halo was pretty tarnished
Current view - halo all bright and shining again?
Been in the job for a while now - I reckon he looking around for another job. Should have taken that Fonterra job a year ago.
Just noticed that analyst confidence keeps dropping: They sliced another percentage or so off the estimated revenue for the years to come, and a bit more off the EPS estimates. 12 month target price is now $2.09 (the trend is not a pretty sight), recommendation a weak hold (4.58 out of 10);
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...407/consensus/
SP scratched a fast dropping MA200 - is this what an uptrend looks like?
Attachment 8659
Been in an uptrend for the last 4 months or so from ~ $1.70 and still clearly above the 100 day MA - no worries.
Well I always said AIR are well to get shot of Virgin and getting their stake away at ~ A31 cents wasn't too shabby in the circumstances. AIR will book a reasonable profit on disposal in the current half to be reported soon on their remaining stake which if I remember correctly was written down to about 21 cents as at balance date 30 June, which they also subsequently sold for ~ A31 cents.
Both good results for the sale when the SP at the time was languishing in the low - mid 20 cent range and with the benefit of more hindsight a satisfactory result with Virgin hitting all time lows today of 19.5 cents and looks to be headed even lower.
Various posters who I shall not name suggested Chris Luxon was a hot head and were crazy to sell their stake, one or two posters even suggested VAH with its still extremely stretched balance sheet was a better bet than AIR going forward.
I think the passage of time has shown Chris Luxon took the bull by the horns and did extremely well to extricate the company from Virgin at a satisfactory price and sweep the floor clean of previous management's flawed Australian expansion strategy.
In addition I note AIR paid out the full proceeds of the sale as a special divvy last year. I for one am very pleased as a shareholder this money is in my pocket rather than still invested in Virgin. I suspect the Government feels exactly the same way.
Yep American Airlines are absolutely terrified of sand state airlines. Offering Americans flights in modern clean planes at reasonable prices would cause a stampede of customers.
A sort of Mexican stand-off has devloped with sand state airlines well aware the American airlines own the best congressmen that money can buy. So far they have limited their routes to and from the US to ones the American carriers don't fly to avoid provoking a reaction.
It will only take someone to flinch before undertakers start carrying airlines up Boot Hill for burial.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Looks like a bit of a down trend here. Looking forward to results day.
I am thinking about some more again.... Have a bit more confidence in a good interim result and update and think the drop of late is purely a TA response following the charts and should have thought harder about selling mid 2.20s....
Wondering what the strategy/reasoning is behind AIR pulling out of the "Commercial partnership that supposedly made it easier to put people on each others planes" ?
Workingdad, not my place to say but personally I advise patience... outcomes may be chaotic for a while. Seems the Trumped-effect is spreading and what he sees as good for his bowl of warm milk, may in fact be turned to curdled sludge by external factors.
Arc, they were providing cheap domestic seats to their opposition with that agreement, they don't need to do that, any punters Qatar bring here will still by and large have to use Air to travel around NZ anyway, except for the ones that choose to fly Jetcrap on the limited routes it provides.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...eace-23837316/
Much ado about very little. AIR and their shareholders did okay by taking a hardline commercial approach with Virgin. I suspect if Qatar are getting catty over this its them that's on the losing end of this change to the airlines commercial arrangement.
Naturally....
Mention of US airline lobbying the other day so will link to an update for anyone interested...
http://www.northjersey.com/story/tra...ouse/97652976/
That much touted Singapore - Canberra - Wellington won't be worrying AIR too much
Reckon 25% full on Canberra - Wellington leg
http://australianaviation.com.au/201...form=hootsuite
25%, depending on passenger mix would barely cover the fuel costs let alone crew, landing fees e.t.c.. It will be interesting to see how long Singapore last with this service into N.Z.
It would be a real blow to Infratil's runway expansion plans if another airline pulled out of international routes ex Wellington wouldn't it !
Hubbing international flights from Chch and AKL only as AIR suggests is the only way to go...seems like they have this bang on the money.
So the subsidy per passenger is 4 times as much as their forecasts mmmmm no worries us poor old ratepayers here to bail out yet another poor commercial decision by WCC...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/7616...ayers-millions
Why should residential ratepayers pay for incentives so that business in Wellington can theoretically benefit from having more tourists that theoretically wouldn't come to Wellington hubbing through Auckland or Christchurch anyway ? How does this benefit Wellingtonians generally ?...talk about drawing a long bow !
Just to point out that you should not believe everything you read in the papers.
Oct 16 Singapore Airlines Load Factors
Wellington - Canberra 62.0%
Canberra - Singapore 75.1%
Singapore - Canberra 90.8%
Canberra - Wellington 57.4%
Nov 16 Singapore Airlines Load Factors (just released)
Wellington - Canberra 63.4%
Canberra - Singapore 79.3%
Singapore - Canberra 85.4%
Canberra - Wellington 60.8%
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
So we are a couple of weeks away from earnings and SP is hanging around the $2.10 area after going up to $2.27 a few weeks ago.
As volatile as Air NZ can be, what do you think the +/- % variance may be after results and guidance is communicated? At this stage, 4 months away from year end, I would hope they have a very good feel for end of year profit number so hopefully they will be able to tighten the range of their forecast.
What is the market expecting? A revised guidance to the bottom of the range may send the SP down potentially by about 10%. If we get above the midpoint, I think it goes higher than $2.27 and a surprising result toward the top of the range might have the SP heading for $2.50.
Interesting times...
Singapore Airlines have deep pockets. I bet there's an accountant somewhere that can make it look worthwhile.
Might have lost some juicy fare payers here ....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11798218
Gerry Brownlee will "love" their tiny 29 inch pitch seats :D Seriously, I wouldn't worry, its probably just window dressing for the lefties. Govt is the major shareholder in AIR and their Koru lounge facilitates are what government employees and business people expect.
Brownlee would prob place a cheek each on two seats and only notice at the end of the flight that he's got two tourists stuck to his bum ,after intensely watching repeats of Orwells 1984.
Mr Dore still grumpy over these ATRs on WGN and CHCH route ...andI don't blame him
But shareholders come first - stuff customers in pursuit of ever greater profits.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel...n-trunk-routes
The difference is a degrade in service not the same as what was available decades ago..nearly every element of the experience has been degraded..people moan about no proper Koru lounge in regional section at CHCH..to a mile and half walk out on the tarmac..most likely longest walk in NZ to an airplane through to flight noise, seats comfort.. time of flight..risk of flight re weather in winter..etc... not able to take a coffee out of the cafe crap lounge they now have..all have been a common complaint etc... works ok when you have exess demand however that can always change in time plus EI management tells you these people will consider all options in other purchases and customer loyalty goes out the window...
Mr Dore needs to get a life as well as doing a bit more study of aircraft types and where each type should be used to its best advantage. Stuff have nothing worthy to publish when they continue to rehash old stories over and over(I notice a lot of their articles stay up for a week at times which backs up this viewpoint)
Mr Dore as a holder of a private pilot's license should have a rudimentary understanding of the fact that different aircraft types are better suited to different roles.
The ATR600 is extremely well suited to short hops of a distance from Chch to Wellington, (I haven't checked the charts) but I would have thought this is a similar distance that AIR flies them on their routes AKL to Napier and AKL to New Plymouth among many others..
If I remember correctly the flight time is only about 10 minutes difference compared to an A320 but the use of ATR600's means AIR can operate with far higher and more convenient frequency.
I guess he better not catch an AIR ATR flight from AKL to Nelson which at a scheduled flight time of 1 hr 25 minutes would have him bleating like a seal pup lost from its mother. Suppose he expects an A320 on that route too. If he doesn't like it I suggest he flies on Jetheaps relics or brushes up on his cross country skills and flies his own plane.
Let me guess...because he has a few skills with his private pilot's license he thinks he knows best how to run AIR N.Z. :lol:
Raz - that walk would do you a lot of good. If you feel really morally offended by the walk you could ask for wheelchair assistance :p
Food for thought.
Flight distances
Wellington to Christchurch 190 miles, (short enough that the difference in flight time ATR v A320 isn't especially material for most people)
Auckland to Wellington 306 miles (long enough that most people would notice the significant extra time an ATR600 would take) Nelson flights on an ATR have a scheduled time of 1 hr 25 for 316 miles so Wellington would be at least 1 hr 20 seeing its only 10 miles shorter v the 1.00 hr on an A320. (20 minutes is a noticeable increase in flight time for a domestic flight in my opinion).
Auckland to Napier 217 miles (longer than what Dore is complaining about but obviously Napier is a small regional city and couldn't sustain A320 services economically.
Auckland to Nelson 316 miles (fairly long flight for an ATR in N.Z. although the plane type is capable of well over double that distance), obviously this length flight 1 hr 25 would have Dore in a real frenzy.
Wellington to Invercargill 477 miles and AIR's longest flight within N.Z. in terms of scheduled time at 2 hours 10 min on a Q300. You don't suppose Invercargill residents might think they're entitled to first dibs on any expanded A320 service ? I guess the serial complainer better not shift to Invercargill or the Chatam Islands !
Further, if I remember correctly AIR are in the process of retrofitting their ATR's with highly advanced new navigational systems at a cost of twenty something million that will significantly improve their operational capabilities in adverse flying conditions, so bleating about their operational reliability should diminish soon too.
How so Winner, you don't have to go through security so that's some time saved there. Raz flies business and occasionally first class on Emirates...too used to the high life :p
There's nothing quite like the smell of aviation fuel filling your lungs as you walk out on the open tarmac, the rush of cold air blowing down the runway... really gives you a sense of how they used to do it in the days of old...some people need to harden up a bit :)
ATR's actually have a flying range of 1500km and Air Tahiti run theirs non stop from Pape'te to Nuku Hiva, a distance of 1400km. Perhaps Mr Dore should ponder this on his next flight between WGTN and ChCh, stop bleeting and be thankful:cool:
Boarding time and exit time on the A320 is longer than the ATR, plus the time to go through security screening (not required on the ATR). Unloading time of the ATR is less than the A320 (fewer bags). Total time from dropoff at Wellington to taxi rank at Christchurch is about the same A320 or ATR. I would rather have the frequency of flights to suit my timetable rather than try and fit in with less flights. Seating on the ATR is fine for 60 minutes and there are none of the dreaded middle seats such as on the A320.
I flew to Oamaru in 1973. The first part of flight from Auckland to Christchurch was exciting on a jet plane, and it had a jet motor on each wing, and went really fast, not sure what sort of plane it was. The second part of the trip from ChCh. to Oam. was on a DC3, what a laugh, but a good experience. Think there were only a very few of us on the DC3, less than 4 people from memory:).
Remember those DC-10s, the 3 engine job with the third engine mounted on the tail.
Air New Zealand had a bad experience with one of those planes
Probably be lumbered with one of those ATR jobs next week going to springsteen in Chch
With a bit luck might even score seat 1A
But for $59 can't really complain
I understand the economics of it and just highlight the psychology of customers. Its alway worse having a service degraded than never having had it at all at that standard. People accept one element of change however in this case there is several factors that are grating people that all changed at once..I know a number a people are really bitter and twisted by it!
It cost AIR in other ways..like how people decide/do long haul ex Christchurch and Wellington. So it can cost brand value in return for what for now appears bottom line advantage... the tradeoff is the premium AIR can get long haul. It doesn't worry me as I send an underling to Wellington and just don't visit.
Swiss Air (code share singapore airlines direct out of chch) has my private dollars for a family reunion mid year and I hear budget conscience and young people are doing EU via China Southern... prices under 1k return to EU including free hotel if layover is great than eight hours... is popular..as a mini stop over. I'm hearing very little good on the 787 configuration with most airlines including ours. AIR will not be able to maintain a premium price if it is not going to present a premium product offering. Prices have taken another step down..watching very closely...
This code share subsidy thing is interesting ..going with star alliance partners is so much cheaper than booking direct with Singapore airlines..yet you get in essence the same product.
Raz some people you know may very well be bitter and twisted by the changes,but going by 90% of the comments on stuff in response to the article, most people are happy to use the ATR on a short route. PS-You know the old saying, you can please some of the people most of the time ,but you can't please all of the people all of the time.
Big party in Dunedin tonight as both Air NZ and Jetstar grounded
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel...t-in-the-lurch
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/govern...tract-b-199363
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11799517 Interesting difference between how passengers from each airline were treated. Jetstar's back up and so called service standards turning into a fiasco...that's something "new" isn't it !
Sure although you try to not hack off your frequent, high value clients/customers in any business I'm involved with:)
Robomo, as frequently flyer, can't relate to that timing at all, also bags coming out are more determine by the number of flights landing concurrently...
Gee, people need to just accept they have the flight options they have because AIR is a business just like others and no doubt balance out the will to keep regulars happy and the bottom line.
The whinny people can go fly Jetstar and really have something to winge about, suck it up cupcake!!
I've flown the ATR 600 heaps of times to Napier which at 217 miles is longer than the sector we're debating. Its a huge step up from the old Fokker F27 Friendship days and vastly quicker than the old DC3 flights I remember.
I think they're a thoroughly modern turboprop and actually prefer seeing the view from 16,000 feet than about 35000 feet in an A320. The only criticism I can think of is the seats are a bit hard. I kind of like the whole turboprop thing getting a whiff of aviation fuel in your nostrils as you walk out on the tarmac.
Still inappropriate.
We live in a polite ,respectful country.
Have in-laws from the states staying with us-atm touring the country and spending lots us dollars.
I felt proud when they commentated how polite people were-starting at customs.
They wondered why we had no intention of visiting the states!