Exactly. I have yet to meet a person who can accurately pick a top or a bottom. I don't thing such a person exists.
Printable View
COO and CFO added to their holdings
Asia CEO and ex CEO reduced holdings quite a bit
Usually the market has a hissy fit when Geoff sells 9 odd mill nzd of A2.
The world’s so happy at the moment we could see $13.50 at least today
One thing when the world’s so happy fundamentals means didly squat ...that’s a bonus
Thanks for all the opinions, I'm glad I could generate some discussion. From here I will be looking to take some off the table this week and see where it goes next week (fingers crossed for $14). I got out of THL yesterday and will also be trying to get a good off-ramp for FPH and SUM in the next couple of months. That will leave me with two penny dreadfuls in the bottom drawer because it is not worth selling them at a loss.
I concur with BP & Iceman
Dorkus
Check this out
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NZX-BLT/technicals/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ASX-BSR/technicals/
The problem is I have 500K shares in losers that total value is about $9k...
$9k doesn't buy much ATM and I think one day they will/might be worth something. For the money, it is worth holding on to them (for me anyway) in the hope that they one day take off. If it was the difference between being able to pay the mortgage or not then I'd definitely be cashing them up, but at ~3% of my portfolio it's not really worth it.
Fair enough. I’d point out though that $9k of losers will buy you $9k of ATM or other winners. The market certainly appears to be favouring quality growth stocks and in my view ATM,FPH,SML,SUM,HBL,MFT and THL (more risky) fit that criteria.
But only you know your personal situation so ignore us and stick to your own well considered conviction.
You’ve obviously done well so good on you
Hope isnt a great investment strategy. I've hadmy losers. Held onto them in hope. Hope got me nowhere - other than them becoming worth evn less.
Think of it this way. When your loosers do (if!) start to turn how much do you expect them to increase in value. 10%. 20%, 50%? and in what sort of timeframe. 1 year. 2 years, 5 years?
Howabout cashing up and putting them into something that gives you confidence will increase. Eg I have every confidence, based on available information, that ATM will be worth $20 within my 5 year window. I sold PPH (after loosing confidence) and put the money into ATM. In 20 days they have gone up $2.52 or 24%. In the meantime PPH has gone up 7%. Why would I want PPH in my bottom drawer?
Looks like we've had our moment of wealth. With profit takers now pillaging our new found gains.
I once bought some some shares and they dropped in price so i bought some more and then they dropped so i bought some more and so on till i had 160,000 for $80,000 but they kept dropping but the hole was getting deeper so I stopped digging, but dreams can come true and the price started to climb so when they got to around 85 cents I decided to sell and was ready to put guru along side my name...only trouble was this company became a big seller of some odd milk powder to China...aussie sales took off and now there starting in America...you may have heard of them...why didn't I sell half and keep half....so if your valueless shares do take off,don't rush to sell...did I learn..hell no,had 1500 xero shares for 75 cents each and sold when they doubled in price...some guru eh....still sun still comes up every morning
Been out all morning helping Mrs Beagle and came back fully expecting a reasonable pullback as after 3 straight days of meteoric gains it simply doesn't seem plausible we'll get another one. Stocks seldom go up steeply in a straight line. Pleasantly surprised things tracking along so nicely which augers well for the future as this stock has a history of being like a whores drawers.
I know the feeling. Like you, I now know never to sell ALL my shares of a winner. Yes get your money back and some profit, but dont dump them. When I look back over my 25 odd years of sharemarket investing, I'm pleased with most of my well considered purchases. Not as pleased with some of my emotionally charged sales. We live and learn
You wouldn't - in hindsight. But a long time ago, I put a small proportion of my portfolio into PEB, PLX, BLT, and ATM. I was punting on a small loss against a big win. I got lucky, or something. Now I look at the red for the first three and console myself with the massive gain on ATM. I have put the first three "punt"s in the bottom drawer because the brokerage on getting out at this stage is a significant proportion of the value that remains, and any one of them could go ballistic at some stage in the future. I would acknowledge that this is gambling rather than investing, but ATM dealt me a royal flush. .
Theres more good advice. A few years back had to fund the build of a house. Shares went on the block. But not all of them. Kept a few back. This is my Portfolio One. All (except oneshare) have returned over 300% over time since then. The other, RYM has remained on a stella trajectory
Its a bit grubby when you get sell down notices released to market at 4:58pm
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...098/285821.pdf
Payed $126k and cashed in 12 million (give or take). Not bad, and I am sure is worth every single dollar. It is just that people in her elevated seats tend to see peaks earlier than us mere mortals, but I am sure she just wanted the money (s. above) - and of course is she entitled to it.
I feel two ways about where if you work hard you should be paid well and then I have another thought how much is paid well? How do we morally judge someone as to how much they are getting paid? $16.50 minimum wage and directors of companies or workers that do really well they get paid a hell of a lot more............... I am happy with all directors, but even they might think they are overpaid at some stage or lucky to be working with such a great team.
There will be rules as to when they can sell them and I am sure she will have complied with them.
probably fall on the news , such a big insider sale from such a key person.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12116434
Embrace the volatility and buy on the dips.
Mate, when I order my latte I want yummy scrummy A2 in it. None of your wowsery bean curd tofu goo or whatever plant excretion you want to stick in it. A2 - guaranteed to keep you in business!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/f...oing-dairyfree
What an idiot. Some people in business deserve to go broke especially the arrogant ones that think they have "the answer" rather than letting the ones paying for the coffee have the choice. Retail 101 the customer is always right ! What part of the whole facilities thing being owned by a Trust for the community's benefit does he fail to understand for goodness sake...
Sounds like a complete idiot. I had a business which was successful for giving customers the option for what they wanted. I get so annoyed with people pushing their way onto me. If I am the customer, I get to consume what I want.
Actually it is.
As a business owner he has the right to run it how he wants. Free enterprise.
If that doesn't suit the target (or potential) customers then they have the right to not buy from him.
In this case the committee had the right to terminate his contract.
Right business - wrong place really.
I like this comment in the comments section. Sums it up perfectly. This guy is a waste of space, let's get back to discussing ATMQuote:
1. Open a cafe with a landlord that offers free rent, free water, free electricity.
2. Decide that my ideology has such merit that I can fly in the face of conformity, and convince my customers and landlord that there is HUGE demand for coffee without milk.
3. Get shut down by the provider of my free rent, water, and electricity because their patrons aren't ideologues with my idiotic agenda and realise that common sense must prevail.
4. Back on the dole.
Have been doing a decent bit of research on ATM last fews days. We all know its a great company with a bright future, the question for me is what price is good value for this future growth? Would love to hear how you think its growth prospects stack up at current PE.
I’m sure for the next 1-3 years they will continue at their frenzied pace of growth but at what point will the growth curve become less steep and how quickly?
Given that you know its a great company with a bright future and you are sure of the frenzied pace then you have a greater degree of certainty than me.
Perhaps you should come up with some numbers for us, if you are not too busy
Attachment 9890
If I look at what I think this is worth I look into other companies worth. Looking into Xero and their growth and A2 and their growth. I then look at turnover and profits and then I look into their share price and see that A2 should be priced well over $20 given they make a generous profit....................... DYOR please.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...September+2018
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2...-in-augusthtml
August was an interesting month, up 4.4%.
I noted the following interesting movements, (I am sure there are others, these are simply the interesting ones I noted)
HLG $5.10 to $6.29 up 23.3% (my goodness that Aussie fund really likes this company a LOT !)
SML $10.75 to $12.80 up 19.1% (ATM likes it and the market seems to be rerating it to)
ATM $10.40 to $12.62 up 21.3% (Market liked the result and brokers upgraded significantly)
THL $6.10 to $5.60 down 8.2% (Company needs to better articulate how their investment in TH2 will pay dividends in my opinion)
TRA $3.10 to $2.96 down 4.5% (On no news that's a very disappointing SP performance relative to the index for the month)
OCA $1.13 to $1.14 up just 0.9% (Sector has been strong this month lead by RYM, the elephant in the room is suppressing the SP)
I suspect after such a good month September could prove to be more challenging.
I might be tempted to have a crack at one or two of the underperformers above once they settle a bit more as its hard to see the outperformers kicking on much further in the short term, (with the possible exception of Synlait which reports on 19th Sept and could deliver a great result and news regarding a stronger than expected outlook)
Interesting ...but you left SUM out (DOWN a fraction in what you say was a strong sector..hmmm)
So TRA, OCA and SUM a bit of a disappointment while HLG, ATM, SML and RYM good
It seems to be that the laggards don't have a very good 'narrative' and as such don't turn most punters (believers excepted) on compared to the others mentioned who have a good story to tell which excites a lot of punters.
THL - as you say their 'narrative' has become a bit confused and the market is confused (maybe) and don't like it
That's how I see it ..... 'narratives' have become more important than fundamentals such as ratios etc
Got SUM in my July 31 Spreadsheet at $7.60, closed August at $7.68 after shedding a 6 cent divvy so effectively up 14 cents for the month, 1.8%, underperforming the index and that despite Julian being quite clear with his narrative accompanying the half year result. I would say the market was slightly underwhelmed with the result and needs to see more sales on the board.
I'm expecting good things from SUM in the next 6 months and topped up this month. Sometimes after the market has run hot its better to chase the underperformers than what's flavor of the month...
Turners have been all over the country telling their story in a pretty convincing way but their narrative which has been clearly and thoroughly articulated has done nothing to help their share price !
ATM had very, very little to say about the outlook for FY19 and yet their SP has had one of the strongest months of any stock on the NZX in August.
SUM had a fair bit to say about a positive looking second half coming but their narrative didn't help them.
RYM have been as quiet as a church mouse this month but SP up nearly 16%
Beagle — are you trying to anticipate what the average opinion expects the average opinion to be?
It’s interesting there is a tendency of punters to flock to certain stocks, whilst neglecting most others. Does this raises questions for the economic theory of rational investor choice?
It could be that “herding” behaviour within the framework of rational choice is in play. Punters maybe are trying to identify when it is optimal to follow the behaviour of others without regard to their own information.
Some narratives are more appealing than others eh
Just curious - why would you think there would be a framework of rational choice shaping our markets? I guess if this is anything to do with the theory of a rational and efficient market - this has been thrown on the scrapheap of history some time ago. There are some good books about behavioral economy around (written e.g. by R. Thaler / Danny Kahneman). If you don't know where to start - try "Misbehaving" written by Richard Thaler.
Markets are a level 2 chaotic system - and yes, herd behavior is for social animals like us humans a very strong motivator (right or wrong). In terms of understanding whats happening - you are normally able to explain what brought a herd to stampede ... but it is often quite hard to explain why they did run into a particular direction. Might be something like that butterfly in Beijing causing a tornado at the US West coast.
Same with markets - don't try to understand them, exploit them!
Read Thaler’s Nudge ....quite a good read
Maybe a stock is not necessarily popular on account of their inherent value but they become more popular simply because they are already popular
I have a friend whose at LSE in Behavioural Economics - occasionally asks me to guide him to threads on Sharetrader that could provide his students with raw material to help them with their papers
There are a huge number of "systems" or "styles" or "approaches" to investing.FA,TA,Momentum,the stars,contrarian etc.
Flitting from one to another,than another, is a sure way to confusion, and failure.
I have known very successful investors who only invest in booze shares,while others who only invest in property shares.
Once you have worked out what works for you, it pays to stick with it.
I'm in good company then, I read about his Asymmetrical holdings although I've never read any books by him or any of the above mentioned names, I just followed my own style from the start. PS-Have been starting to refine the model over the last year but that has been influenced by this guy named Percy on some random NZ forum rather than Buffet.
Take care,I am looking to avoid reading his posts and putting him on my ignore list,after he turned turtle, and brought MVN, after slagging them for years.!
PS.Get your wife to read you a chapter of either Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch's books, in bed, before you go to sleep at night.
Guarantees sweet dreams, and a good nights sleep.
I couldn't agree more. Any bean counter worth is salt must have a high propensity to be an investor based on the fundamental's and I'm no exception. That said there is a lot of irrational behavior in the market so I like it best when FA and TA are in sync like they presently are with great stocks like SUM, SML and now ATM. I feel quite uncomfortable when TA and FA are badly out of sync like they currently are with TRA which explains why I halved my position at $3.16 before the recent decline. I will stick with the way I do things now..it works for me and besides that its hard to teach an old dog new tricks lol
TRA I have increased my holding since their result in May and their presentations.It has worked for me adding to my "high conviction" shares on any share price weakness.
All started in about 1990 when Smiths City went into receivership.The last day of them being listed, was the day I started buying.
I visited their shops and became an expert on their business.The business was still very well supported by their loyal customers.
I checked the share registry was still operating.Their finance company was still being funded by FPF.Then I approached local sharebrokers to buy SCY shares.They were keen to have a buyer,so they could clean up deceased estates.I found the then Chairman,Bill Revell was happy to speak to me and answer my questions.Over the next 4 or 5 years while they were delisted I built up a substantial holding.
So I do my research and back myself.
Did it with HBL,and have also being doing it over the past 6 years with a company on the NZ USX .
Seems to work just fine.
disc.Was a top 20 SCY shareholder,and currently in a USX company's top 20,but have never made to either TRA's or HBL's top 20.[so far lol].
Happy its worked for you Percy. You're also too old to learn new tricks :) I need to refine my strategy, (take a leaf from your book) and become a more patient investor. If TA and FA stay in line keep holding until they don't. I think that's going to be a strategy that will do my portfolio in shares like ATM, SUM and SML wonders over the long run.
What does L3 mean on Stockness Monster?
Trade went through at 9.07am for $258K.
Was also a trade for SML for $311K at the same time.
Trade No. Time Price Volume Value Conditions
1 1 9:07:08 am 1262 20,500 $258,710 L3
Is $10.50 far off:scared:
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...r-guidancehtml
CEO Ms Hrdlicka welcomes changes that protect intellectual property rights.
be interesting in time how the new china laws affect the daigou trade flows
Not A2M I know but does anyone else have Keytone Dairy KTD (ASX) on their radar? Up 33% yesterday.
Market seemed worried about that briefly and then it would appear that the protection these new IP laws give has given the market some comfort. As everyone knows China has a massive problem with counterfeit products so its good to see them putting some more regulatory protection and framework around that trying to work towards improving that situation.
A2 launches into Costco Southeast USA
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/09/0...isruption.html
A2 Milk Company CEO on dairy disruption
$12.62 now and dropping ?
I saw the product on some cooking TV programme. - i dont watch a huge amount of broadcast tv so this may not be uncommon. but yeh I definitely commend their marketeer.
Know what you mean MM - my poached eggs look more like an octopus than an egg
Do we have another index rebalancing coming up this month?
NZX50 rebalance 21 Sept.
Interesting take on the rural sector and where A2 may fit in it.
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...on-volume-here