http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11953403
Some of this might be reflecting onto HEARTLAND.
Printable View
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11953403
Some of this might be reflecting onto HEARTLAND.
Not good really.
Price becoming erratic..
So many do not really understand HBL..
Disc. Hold.... Onwards and Upwards..
Market thinks they will ...that's good. If so $65m won't be enough.
But give them a bit of time - it's all calculated on a weighted average basis anyway
No worries ...except that too many might hock off their cheap shares. No longer term view those punters ....just in for a quick buck
Too late to buy / sell now. In a trading halt until book build done.
Didn't participate due to being unemployable and the failure of Forestlands to pay out.
Have enjoyed the ride over the years especially having shares in CBS and buying more at around 55c some years ago.
Will probaly have sell out sometime in the future until then its all good.
$2.02 for any extras in the bookbuild, hardly a rollicking bargain, lets see if the sp holds up after halt finishes
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...803/271622.pdf
Nice professionally handled capital raise that was fair to all parties. Other companies would do themselves and their shareholders well by taking note of how well this was handled and when the times comes following a very similar methodology. SP was well supported throughout the process at and around just over the $2 mark so the book build price shouldn't be a real surprise to anyone.
So a little 32 cent per share bonus for those who didn’t take up their rights
Pretty big divie if you look at it that way ...or a decent Xmas present for somebody
So if the sp drops below 2.02 then those that did not take up the issue will be better off than those who did. The rise on the last day looks a bit suspicious to me.
Maybe I have things about face.?
The sp is a bit of a game to me,as I am neither a buyer or seller of HBL.
What I am looking at is HBL's capacity to keep growing eps,which will leave them in the position to keep paying increasing dividends,which will grow my income.
Each capital raise has seen HBL increase ROE and eps.I expect this trend to continue.
Great to see a high percentage take up of 82%. Although the original dog Arvida had a 90% take up...
And with the help of a bit of what seems "highly suspicious" jump to $2.07 right before the book build, a very high premium to the capital raising price.
Looking forward to seeing a double digit EPS increase. It needs to when it is trading at these sorts of multiples
Now just waiting for the unexpectedly expected profit upgrade to come through.
Good to see another bank getting into diversity – way to go.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11958237
“Adrian Orr seen as a politically savvy choice as Reserve Bank governor
The New Zealand dollar's rally on news that Adrian Orr would be the next Governor of the Reserve Bank was a sign of relief in financial markets.
"Adrian Orr is more politically savvy than the recent governors, and more aligned with Labour ideology and policies," said Christina Leung, principal economist at NZIER.
"As a leader, he is inclusive and will likely champion more diversity within the Reserve Bank," she said.”
There was me thinking the article was going to be about how the NZ dollar rallied on the back of a nicely managed bank capital raise.
Bit no. You post an article about a man getting a top job. You post speculation lacking evidential support "likely champion diversity" - look at how he succeeded at this at National Bank and Westpac. As for being "inclusive" don't get me started.
But back on topic (if you want to bore us with "diversity" there is another thread in teh off topic forums) how will the markets react today. I'll be happy if day ends at $2.05
Interesting situation developing at UDC with the investing public withdrawing large amounts of investment support, which really shouldn't be a surprise to ANZ given the potential change of ownership and possibly considerably lower credit rating to be forthcoming. ANZ having to step into the breech and provide heaps more funding support, the exact opposite of what they are trying to achieve with this sale. https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...+December+2017
ANZ appear to have dug themselves a bit of a hole with this and no doubt are hoping it will eventually proceed...but will it ? Reports I have seen on CNBC a while back are that investment bankers in some US financial institutions have been instructed to stop work on HNA deals on the basis of the seriousness of their concerns over HNA's debt structure and its sustainability.
Meanwhile Heartland have been raising a lot more capital this year....hmmmm...could be an interesting 2018 coming up.
Interestingly UDC make about the same profit (actually a little more) than Heartland .....but on much lower levels of lending
ANZ head honcho says it’s ‘a great little business’ ....probably just as biased as Heartland shareholders who say that a ‘a great little bank’
Most probably because UDC do not do Reverse Equity Loans,and lacks HBL's diversity of both lending and borrowing. .
And yes the ANZ head honcho is correct UDC is "a great little business",and would be, as I have often stated, a great fit with HBL,but not at the price HNA were/are prepared to pay.
Although I think it would be a great fit,HBL is achieving great organic growth on it's own,so the need to buy UDC is diminishing .
We know the REL business in Australia is growing well ,and I would be interested to know how their "open for" products are tracking in Australia.
[QUOTE=Beagle;696180]Interesting situation developing at UDC with the investing public withdrawing large amounts of investment support, which really shouldn't be a surprise to ANZ given the potential change of ownership and possibly considerably lower credit rating to be forthcoming. ANZ having to step into the breech and provide heaps more funding support, the exact opposite of what they are trying to achieve with this sale. https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...+December+2017
ANZ appear to have dug themselves a bit of a hole with this and no doubt are hoping it will eventually proceed...but will it ? Reports I have seen on CNBC a while back are that investment bankers in some US financial institutions have been instructed to stop work on HNA deals on the basis of the seriousness of their concerns over HNA's debt structure and its sustainability.
o acquire Singapore's CWT shares from 'dissenting shareholders'
Reuters ReutersDecember 12, 2017
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Chinese conglomerate HNA Group has exercised its legal rights to acquire all shares from "dissenting shareholders" of Singaporean logistics firm CWT Ltd, as it moves to close the $1 billion (£0.8 billion) acquisition.
HNA Belt and Road Investments Singapore, an HNA group company, will offer S$2.33 ($1.73) per share in cash to the CWT shareholders who have not accepted the tender offer, HNA's financial advisers said in an announcement on behalf of the company on Monday.
The price is the same as was offered to other CWT equity holders, valuing the deal at S$1.399 billion ($1.04 billion).
The announcement comes against a backdrop of concerns about rising financing costs at indebted HNA, an airline-to-property conglomerate, whose $50 billion worth of deal-making over the past two years has sparked intense scrutiny.
Pressure on the group's finances has risen after the Chinese government told major banks in June to review their credit exposure to the conglomerate and a handful of other non-state companies.
HNA first announced in April its intent to buy CWT, whose businesses include logistics services, commodity marketing, financial services and engineering services and was incorporated in 1970 as a private arm of the Port of Singapore Authority.
After completion of the "compulsory acquisition" of dissenting shareholders' shares, CWT will become a wholly owned subsidiary of HNA Belt and Road Investments, according to Monday's statement.
Got my shares and about 50% of over
50% of what you applied for as extras ??
Same here - got just over half what I asked for
Yip, just over 50% of the cash amount I added for extras.
How were you notified, I haven't heard a squeak
I haven't received any formal notification, but just checked Link and can see the extra shares there.
Ah yes, can see a wee few more in there alright, righto northwards it is !
Did you guys do yours online or the old mail system...ithought they were going to post the offers but mine never arrived,did manage to do mine online after much cursing and swearing so all good but the next cash raise may not arrive either
Got the email offer and filled out the online application. Money was gone the next day and my shiny new shares appeared in Link services the day they said they would. I am not sure that I trust the post anymore. NZ Post don't seem that excited by their own service.
And sp hasn't dropped back to 2.02 or worse so my conspiracy and manipulation theories can be put to bed !
Ah ok maybe I ticked something I didn't,t really read who knows
I'm with Percy on this one. $3 is mind boggling.. No reason for it to go there so quickly..
Unless of course HNA renege on their purchase.. At present they are throwing money around with gay abandon..
With a current share price of 0.355 cents HK.. Possible .... Such things dreams are made of ..
Holy crap. $2.14 this is one crazy bull market
I was expecting it to float with the $2 mark and have some resistance before actually pushing through it in 2018 but I guess not. I'm continually a bit flabbergasted by how the bull is behaving, not just with HBL but I have a few examples from the year.
"Beware the bull"
Literally take it as you will.
$2.14 ?
Has HBL released it's own cryptocurrency ?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
May be that guy Robertson is about to open an account there for government.
Over half the days turn over in the last minute... Nothing steady about that..
Ramping ??????
Beginning to defy logic..
Time for Percy to get on the phone ..
As near as I can figure it there was a substantial disturbance in the NZX50 yesterday with index rebalancing. With Rod Drury in his "infinite wisdom" deciding that XRO should exit the NZX on the face of it PPH simply replaced it and that was that, (apart from the obvious displeasure of XRO shareholders and pleasure of PPH holders)...but my sense is there is more to it than that.
It looked to me that a large number of stocks in the NZX50 came under serious buying pressure in the last 15 minutes of that closing match process. I suspect there is far more to it that simply PPH replacing XRO in the index and that holdings by tracker funds following that index had to rebalance quite a number of their holdings due to the substantial market capitalization difference between XRO and PPH. This is a highly irregular situation because normally the size of the incoming stock coming into the NZX50 is slightly more than the lowest former ranking NZX50 stock. That's my theory on it anyway but its just a theory and I'm not pretending to know exactly how these index rebalancing process's work. I suspect that any holder who sold at $2.14 on Friday can thank Rod Drury for his kindness and I would put a cider or two on normal market pricing resuming next week.
With all the $2.14 large trades crossing at, and after closing, HBL may not "yet" be aware of who is buying/selling.
Ringing on Monday I would most probably get,"we will have to wait to receive details of buy/sell from Link Market Services, before we know ourselves."
Or else, should they know,they may not be in the position to tell me.They may have to inform NZX?
HBL is trading above Craigs,FNZC and Hobson Wealth's target prices,so it does not appear to be in reaction to an urgent upgrade buy from these brokers.
Often after a rights issue or placement, we see the share price come back towards the placement/rights issue price.This has not been the case with HBL's rights issue.
Like every one else, I may just have to wait and see.
However like Iceman and Janner, I will continue to enjoy sailing along with the strong tail wind.
ps.Since writing this I notice Beagle's post.Makes sense to me.
Didn't Mr Orr get a big cheque from Grant Robertson yesterday?
I am not selling. This is a solid stock which I think will do what it says. Overprice at 2.14 but has a floor at2.02 I think. It is an example of why owning tracker funds have a risk. Market usually goes too high at xmas.
Yeap I hear its also common for the index tracker funds to mop up any shares they are missing from the rebalance on the Monday following the big closing Friday match process. We'll know where the true price is by mid week I would say. Possibly a tad over full value at the current price but then again its getting quite hard to find any real value on the NZX so probably a reasonable hold for 2018 but I don't think total shareholder return next year is going top anything like what it was this year.
There are lots of people retiring and selling their Auckland houses. They need somewhere to put their money and given interest rates are so pitiful, they will look to the stock market as an option for some or all of those funds. Even tho it seems expensive......their options aren't very attractive. So I see them continuing to underpin our sharemarket.
Hey Winner, do you think your old GDT auction price and HBL SP correlation theory still holds any water ? Maybe $2.14 was the top...for a while...
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/dairy-...march-b-211376
Not as strong as it was a while ago but then this what you would expect as the HBL share price behaviour is defying all sort of logic as it soars to record highs and outrageous valuations.
Punters can’t understand why Bitcoins are worth so much - maybe same applies to Heartland,
But we’ll live with that - esp if HBL goes to $2.50 over the holiday break.
That could be an influence - especially if they are moving into a retirement village and if the children or grandchildren already have their own homes. Otherwise buying a smaller but newer home won't leave an awful lot of change from big but old house. Also The Bank of Mom and Pop is often an even bigger part behind many people being able to afford a deposit for a first house these days.
You said it mate. Price does seem very fulsome on a trailing PE of 17...forward PE is probably as high as 16 given all the shares they've issued.
Maybe Heartland are about to launch their own cryptocurrency and existing shareholders will get in at the ground floor on another rights issue :)
HBL have had a great 12 months, up 41% from $1.47 a year ago plus dividends plus two lots of heavily discounted rights issues, sees most long term holders nab more than a 50% return overall...and all that on ~ 10% EPS growth...hmmm
UDC sale to HNA unlikely now
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...300/272218.pdf
Wonder if Heartland is part of ANZ's 'strategic options'
Where's Jeff today?
No surprise there winner. And you and Beagle think the SP has reached unexplainable heights !!
There would be grounds for optimism if ANZ were forced sellers but I think they will still want a fulsome price if they decide to continue with selling it at all.
They flicked off some funds management thing the other day in Aussie for a couple of billion odd so I doubt they're too worried by this.
Would some kind poster put the correct link to the David Hargreaves article on ANZ/UDC interest ,co,nz article.
www.interest.co.nz/opinion/91502/david-hi
Although my link comes up error if you click onto David Hargreaves photo in the top right corner, the article will come up.
Funding.Would be a "game" changer for both,and intos would want on board.The sp would head north straight away [over $2.50], and a "huge" rights issue would be well supported.HBL would need to raise about 72 cents per share.ie approx. $400mil.
HBL would most probably need ANZ's support for a year or so, to give them time to get bond depositors onboard.
UDC bond depositors who left because of their worries about HNA, would most probably support HBL as a NZ bank owning UDC.
Re percy post - link to interest.co.nz article re UDC
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/9...al-institution
Yes cheers w69. Not a lot of other contenders besides kiwibank? At a cheaper price too. The mind boggles at the supersize me that would be created.Maximas merrimas :).
Might be easier if ANZ took out HBL, combined it with UDC.
It would make a very attractive business to purchase.
Thats pretty HEARTless / outLANDish beetills. But would have to consider it @$3.32;)
Disappointed that Jeff not recognised in the New Years Honours list. He deserved one for services to banking. After all he has taken something on its last legs to be one of the most successful bank in NZ. Another time maybe
Good to see ‘diversity’ to the fore with the top Honours this time round. More new Dames than new Knights. That’s good ...maybe Heartland are on the track with their commitment to diversity.
In terms of valuation this one is still way over the original guidance given by management. Still not sure if this one will hold over 2.10 like it has done going into January now.
Given with the positive Q1 12% gain in net profit, the market has already priced in an revised upwards guidance by the looks of it. How high can this one go?
This one still amazes me. Not much has changed in relation to company performance or guidance since it was down at $1.20 18 months ago, yet it's nearly doubled in price. It's gone from a low PE with high dividend yield to the highest bank PE and moderate yield. Personally I can't see huge gains this year, but the market is loving growth at the moment and HBL continues to deliver that so who knows.
Agree JeremyALD. It was a great year to be a HBL shareholder last year with a total shareholder return of over 50% inclusive of two deeply discounted rights issues..fantastic returns considering modest EPS growth, really surprising and most enjoyable indeed. Fact is HBL outperformed the NZX50 by well over double the index gain for the year. Disc: Sold out completely at $2.14 in December.
I hold a lot and will not sell. The Management do what they say. It is the only NZ bank and has an advantage over AU banks in that their are imputation credits on the div's. Worth around 2.00
I thought this is what ‘value investors’ like you loved .....buying ‘under valued’ stocks and seeing them be recognised and rerated by the market and making zillions in the process through the rerating on top of profit growth.
You shouldn’t be amazed ...it’s all gone to plan eh
They say true value investors sell when their target price is reached .....is this where you are now with your thinking.
I still hold ....when Jeff mentions $72m plus we’ll see $2.30 plus. That will be soon.
Stop loss . It is the only listed NZ bank which I can buy shares in. You have to be an investor to get the benefits of increases in value it seems to me. Govt ownership puts me of Kiwibank as over the years politicians dont tend to be good owners.