Yep some of my many orders today got cross matched by the broking company and didn't hit the depth chart, I reckon there are a few big sellers currently.
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"overseas perspective he brings"
Born here, 3rd generation to a family of accountants, lawyers and military. If I did not have an NZ passport; I would not have been lucky enough shelter here in the waka too.
It is just having spent time overseas and first landed in Holland in my early 20's, one adjusts to one’s environment. I was sent to Europe by Swedish and Dutch immigrants in the early 1980’s.
Amsterdam was a wonderful city to live in before the tourists over ran it a decade or so later.
OCA:
OCA is a very interesting stock. Thank you to M for sharing his extremely well researched information here on the forum.
OCA - BBB - Beagle busy buying :t_up:
That MACD indicator thingummy not looking flash at the moment, same as a lot of other shares though.
Hope the good SUM sales numbers out today reignites interest in the sector and this flows over to Oceania
OCA needs all the help it can get -- going nowhere by itself
Demand at this price for OCA by certain individual's could be high as they have cash to deploy after selling WHS.
They are the sort of trading rotations one would often execute in the GFC.
When your mind is processing a lot of information in a crisis your Gamma's waves will swamp your Alpha and Beta.
The question for the current fair value is the expected NTA value?
Buyers and sellers in equilibrium so all good.
Announced at todays update.
”Sweeping vaccine mandate for teachers and most healthcare workers … including aged residential care staff“
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...kato-northland
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I think it is a terrific move by the government to mandate full vaccination for ALL health care workers, including retirement/elder care (and education for that matter). Removes any doubt, that from December 1st, all workers in health care are fully vaccinated and have the best protection available for our most vulnerable population. No jabs no job.
I expect this will alleviate some of the tension in the market around concern for Covid getting into the retirement/care sector.
I agree completely and am shocked as there is nothing in justakiwi's post that is offensive imo. I would like to know who would stoop to giving bad rep for something so innocuous, not to mention it being a great story. I'm very proud of justakiwi and I don't even know them, their story I have recounted to my children, as motivation for what can be achieved in building ones wealth by investing, from nothing. The only thing justakiwi has ever hinted at being remorseful about is to not have started sooner.
It will be interesting for sure. I didn't see any mention of exemptions for those with medical reasons not be be vaccinated. I can't imagine they could force staff in that category to be vaccinated OR to have their employment terminated. Perhaps they will get around it by mandating masks (to be worn always, not just at certain lock down levels).
I will be interested to see what happens at work as there is one staff member I know of who has made it very clear they will not be vaccinated (not for health reasons). Going to be very interesting to see how upper management handles it.
The negative rep was given by Crypto Crude simply because he has bucket loads of cash and JAK doesn't, check it out for yourself and be disgusted, i see he also gave you another one not long ago for similar reasons, extremely uncool.
The only contraindication to vaccination with the Pfizer jab is anaphylaxis to the vaccination. To be clear we need as many people vaccinated as possible, 15% of the population are under 12, we need 5 year old and upwards to get vaccinated, awaiting FDA report later this month. Also to get the job done properly we all need a third vaccination 6-9 months after the second one.
There are some other legit reasons one might choose not to have the vaccination. We have a gentlemen in our rest home who is turning 105 at Christmas. He chose to pass on it, and I feel that is a legitimate decision for him. We have another resident who has had negative reactions to various vaccines in the past, so she too has chosen not to have it. Again, a legitimate reason for not having it.
Every other resident has had both doses.
My concern is visitors. Down the track, are we going to check visitors vaccination status, and insist that they always wear a mask and continue to only visit their family/friend, in their rooms - forever? Vaccinated visitors to have the freedom to visit anywhere in the home, and no need for masks?
If I recall correctly, at the 4pm press conference, Ashley Bloomfield mentioned there would be some exemptions for those with medical reasons but didn’t go into much detail.
Edit: here it is https://youtu.be/IibIYDX533o?t=2289
Extremely pleased to see govt mandated vaccination for health workers.
Many anti-vaxers who think they will qualify for a medical exemption to the Pfizer vaccine, in fact won't, was reading maybe 100 people in whole of NZ.
Heard of 1 Aucklander who's still refusing to get vaccinated assume their asthma will give them an exemption. Absurd!
The vaccine even safe for people having chemo, surgery, organ or bone marrow transplants, though with appropriate timing.
The only possible reason is an extremely unusal allergic reaction to 1 of the ingredients (PEG) which is common in most cosmetics and soaps, shampoos, skin creams etc, so they would be well aware of it.
Attached Herald article referencing almost no one in Australia medically exempt.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cov...CAZACHN5HSAZY/
I think myocarditis (inflammation of the heart) is one of the more serious side effects. But it's a 1 in 50000 chance and most that get it are fine and recover. But from what I understand is if you were to get this reaction you would have had the same thing happen if you caught the virus. It's just exposing a flaw in your body
You are correct. My daughters cardiologist (when checking with him before she had the vaccine, which she was all good to) said that in his professional opinion that any reaction to the vaccine would pale in comparison to what would happen from actually getting the virus, including longer term resulting effects.
A friend in Singapore said take it easy for a couple of days, I saw no harm in it and it seemed like common sense. Not like Russian roulette where one in six die :confused:
On a related subject, has covid made it into any retirement villages in Aus lately? Does anyone know?
I dont believe Covid is a large threat to the successful operation of OCA.
Me neither. Those living in OCA facilities know very well that they are being taken good care of, and that OCA is taking every precaution to keep them as safe as possible. Their families also know this. As do shareholders.
There is always a chance covid might get in, but there will be a comprehensive plan in place for how to manage that, which will kick in immediately, should a case be identified. I have much greater faith in the likes of OCA etc, to manage it efficiently, than I do in my own place of work.
As I have said before, these providers are essential. Nobody else can provide the services/care they are providing. Residents will stay because it is their home. The government will continue to pay subsidies, residents/families will continue to pay their fees, and units/care beds will continue to be sold. The elderly who are currently living in the community will see OCA (and others) as a safer and supported place to live, especially those who currently have no family for support.
I do think OCA and others will have to give thought to how to manage unvaccinated visitors, but I'm sure they are already working on that.
Thank you, I agree and by the way well done on the growth rate of your portfolio. Young or old, much or little, you sharing your investing journey was refreshing because its encouragement to others that its never to late to start investing to build a more resilient financial future for your wellbeing.
Folks, here is the right thread to discuss general Covid matters.
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...avirus/page520
OCA becoming more and more attractive ...1.39 is better then 1.42 to buy :D
WHS ahead today...
long run different story of course. Sky could fall tomorrow.
Looking at the depth, it looks as though the seller maybe be taking a breather or maybe finished. It doesn’t look like there are any large sells between $1.41 and $1.50 currently. $1.39 May have been the last push.
Ah the 'mischievous'. We do need more of them! I have wondered how many people who come into contact with 'mischievous' people become 'mischievous' and join the 'mischievous' movement.
Todays numbers 149 hospitalized since the start of this only 3 vaccinated. Gives you some hope for the vaccinated villages getting through safely.
VACCINATED NOT UN SORRY
It’ll be interesting to see who(s) the seller is.
For Bars latest where I posted on sector had OCA target of $1.90, ARV $2.50.. Cant remember on the other two SUM and RYM.
Not sure a dog counts as diversification mate but the return on investment in terms of love is right off the charts as long as you don't mind dealing with the regular golden and brown "dividends" they produce lol
This takes me back to when we use to discuss SUM vs RYM prices, didn't that change after a period of time! OCA will have it's time.
U need to see the nature of the stock also for going big ...ATM is / was of speculative origin with just 2 years of sharp up move ...where as FPH / OCA are more defensive stocks with FPH having almost 10 years of excellent returns track record while OCA is property based NAV which never goes zero ....50% in OCA is better then 30% in ATM or PX1
Stout close.:cool:
Our Brett ws on radio this morning
Said they and the others waiting for the government to come up with a plan
Really would like to see his residents getting 'rewarded' for getting jabbed by allowing family to come and see them ...or something like that.
Not happy with government - made that clear
At last we are seeing normal , "regular" sized buys getting onto the NZX after 2.5 weeks of absence.
Yesterday could very well be the day the large off market selling completed and normal market function resumes. If it has ( and the brokers aren't just at a tool box meeting this morning ) , then this just might be the finish of the relentless selling.....way too early to be sure though but its looking good so far.
Simple fundamental analysis of OCA - you don't need to know any more.
1) Retirement is here to stay and will continue to grow in to the distant future
2) OCA currently valued at significantly lower multiples than RYM and SUM
so a compelling BUY .... now and probably even in years time so why worry about a couple cents here or there today
BUY BUY ....and its CHEAP CHEAP
Help you guys out with understanding the most complex accounts presented by any company on the NZX.
Look for the term "Total Comprehensive income" in the presentation. That's the real earnings including all increases in the value of property during the year. The vast majority of earnings come from property so other methods of measuring earnings are far less relevant in my opinion.
Some practice for the forthcoming result next month http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...535/346452.pdf
See page 16 - Total Comprehensive Income $167.8m = total earnings of 23.8 cents per share for the 10 month period (annualized 28.6 cps).
I have learned that if you think of their real earnings any other way you're missing the point that the real value accretion to shareholders comes from property.
Sorry boring back office question. With the change of dates with OCA the dividend that was paid in Feb historically now moved to December? Assuming it has as the August divvy moved to June. I cant find this anywhere but I'm sure would have been announced somewhere.
I dare not dive too deep into the accounts because they can be quite confusing and complex as you say. I instead cheat a bit and read posts on here from the likes of you, Mav and W69 to get a better understanding of the financials.
The highlighted part of your post is why I sold my KPG and ploughed most of it into OCA. A better property co.
Why would you be sure about this? To the best of my knowledge does none of the large NZ retirement villages share capital gains with their residents ... unless they are share holders as well :):
On the bright side for residents ... if the property value drops, they don't need to share the losses either ...
I thought I saw many recent advertisements of new units or house type developments within villages saying buyers get to keep part capital gains too ...also they are resalable property thru them of course ...so thought maybe overall there is some criteria of sharing capital gains ...after all occupants buy their accomodation not rent it
So one can safely assume it will follow long term property appreciation rate of 7% plus some business value appreciation too . So investing in aged care is almost investing in property plus more ...as residents dont get any capital gains as per BP so shareholders get all that !!
Interesting .... haven't seen these ads (maybe you can give us a link?), but anyway - if they propose this now, it is new. None of the retirement villages in NZ used to do that.
And just one other clarification - the residents (nobody calls them occupants ...) do neither buy nor rent their accommodation. What they actually do buy is the right to live in this accommodation for the reminder of their natural life. Different thing.
Back to the income, though - beagles comment above applies, i.e. no matter whether the providers share at some stage part of the capital gains with the residents or not, they will do the accounting for you and tell in their books which part is theirs (and with that the shareholders :);
Thanks BP for your help ...IMO then larger the land and closer its to big city more valuable is that village thus company so the SP ...also they should be as safe a buying residential house for investment ...instead of rent ...u get dividend ...rest all same on business model ...plus EV of aggressive management
OCA's average demographic is 85 years old. The answer to your question is simple. People want the care and support these villages provide with no worries about the maintenance and upkeep of their unit and its grounds. They also want to enjoy the friendships and camaraderie of the village, the common area facilities provided, trips out, village cafeteria and so on. In a nutshell when people get to this age they just want to be "looked after".
Thanks buddy for your help ...fully understood their value and business model ...its almost a failsafe long term investment if done closer to its current intrinsic value of property ...No wonder U and all veterans are so bullish on OCA ..:t_up:
PS : Took a medium position at average 1.41 ...lets c how it behaves in next 2-3 years time frame
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...19b12a0d7d7338
Paywalled
Excerpt "The boss of a retirement village operator is calling on the Government to allow aged care residents to reconnect with their loved ones.
Oceania Healthcare chief executive Brent Pattison says that the current restrictions are weighing heavily on the mental health of his residents.
Under the current conditions, Aucklanders have been allowed to finally start extending their bubbles to include households, but this does not include aged care residents". Contains some very somber personal stories in the comments section of how this is impacting people and their elderly loved ones.
I have some personal experience of this last year when my Mum was locked down for a while in her rest home. It was incredibly tough on her and we really felt it too.
Well done to our man Brent for advocating on the old folks behalf. Not just a brilliant investment banker after all :t_up:
Oceania Head Nurse want residents to be free from lockdown
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/...on-in-lockdown
OMG …..September median house price down 6.5% from August nationally
Better adjust profit models for H2
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...ber%202021.pdf
I guess the bigger picture still looks bright:
If you ask me - residential property is ways too dear in NZ, but our unfortunately not so gifted government does whatever they can to make it still more unaffordable. Bright times for owners of REIT's will continue and the have nots sit deep in the proverbial ...Quote:
Median prices for residential property across New Zealand increased by 15.4% to $795,000 in September 2021 compared to $689,000 in September 2020, according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.
free from lock down?
modellers says aucklands number are going to spike up, not down.
no one is getting out of auckland.
maybe free after xmas from lock downs.
but for over 90 percent double dosed NZ?
not this month.
Housing a bubble? Noooo surely not.