rally from oversold levels ie bear bounce or is it a buy the dip to new highs again
take your pick people and have the tissues ready in case you pick the wrong side
Printable View
rally from oversold levels ie bear bounce or is it a buy the dip to new highs again
take your pick people and have the tissues ready in case you pick the wrong side
Meta shares down 22% in after hours …that won’t help.
Paypal also down 25% .
Aye - its a multifaceted issue and we have but blunt tools. None the less, I believe supply chain issues form only a part of inflation, with the majority of it created by government stimulus that was issued at a vast multiple of the underlying gap in wages post pandemic to its pre-covid trend. Both here in NZ and more particularly in America. Another issue is as the NZD drops lower it will result in higher tradeable inflation, together with services inflation, labour inflation, energy inflation, supply chain etc.
I listened to this podcast on xmas eve by Larry Summers - who was 100% right in his call 12 months ago on what would happen to inflation. It's about 23 minutes long but it's one of the most insightful glances on why we have inflation. What is telling is Summers is not a right of centre economist - he served as Obama's treasury secretary and prior to that was director of the national economic council - so for a democratic leaning economist to be ringing the alarm bells the loudest on inflation then and now certainly grabbed my attention.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sn-t-look-good
(note: ignore the video - click the audio only stephanomics podcast).
I would hope our economy will be more responsive to OCR hikes than in the past. Household debt as a % of disposable income is at all time highs so smaller rises in the OCR should have a higher proportionate impact on disposable income less servicing. The last data I have is at june 2021 and no doubt even higher now.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/...household-debt
At june 2021 it stood at 169% - probably more like 175% now. It's previous all time high was 158% in june 2009.
i think these stocks like netflix , meta etc etc who have missed earnings and have gotten absolutely slammed in the US ( i mean wow the size of these companies and the fall in $ value is incredible ) is a warnings for nzx and asx earnings coming up.
miss and your stock price will plummet big time
cause the other big news this week is the RBA stopping QE and im sure to raise rates soon due to inflation
Reserve Bank to wrap up $350 billion stimulus program this month as economy beats forecasts
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-...ates/100795814
and last night
Bank of England hikes rates in first back-to-back rise since 2004
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/bank...ince-2004.html
The euro jumped against the dollar on Thursday after comments from ECB president Christine Lagarde fuelled expectations of faster monetary policy tightening, although the central bank confirmed its guidance for interest rates and its bond purchase programme.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...gs-2022-02-03/
a flip from dec but confirming the direction they are heading
all in all confirming a large part of the world is tightening now or soon and stocks will need to adjust to a rising rate environment and inflation
Do u know the P/E these big names trade on ...TESLA is 300 ...mind boggling 300 P/E ...and its not a tech company but a manufacturing one ...but people are paying high prices to own future Apple or so . They are not looking to make money in next 2 years but investing for next 30 years ...many traders dont have that perspective of super long term investors like pension funds etc ...they dont care if next year TESLA is $ 400 ...they just know in next 10 years it maybe $ 4000 .
Traders vs Investors is different perspective of investments ..." Time in the market is more important then Timing the market "
Our FPH / MFT are also long term investment grade stocks ...may look pricey at P/E of 30 + to traders but not to investors .