Originally Posted by
BigBob
As someone else said, valuations mean squat right now... it's sentiment that counts and that is at rock bottom! so if you think it's a good time to sell when everyone is bitching and moaning, go ahead and sell....
Despite what a number of posters here seem to think, the PRC tragedy was not caused by NZO's bad management. In fact, they are (and have been) dealing with an unprecedented situation and no matter what they do (and did) they will be criticised by a bunch of armchair company managers who know better!
The way I see it is that:
- NZO has a good income stream from Kupe and to a lesser extent TUI for 15-20 years
- oil prices are likely to increase,
- even though NZO may not have a drilling program next year, there are still plenty of upside potential in the longer term for both TUI and Kupe,
- God knows, they may even make a new discovery.
- and of course, you could also consider them a take-over target at the current price (if you believe in various valuations).
The point I was trying to make to Roger is that if he believes the valuation is 120 (which I think he stated), it is pretty irrational to discount that by 50% to justify selling out at a multi-year low. As per my Buffet quote, I believe that in this sort of situation patience is a virtue...!