Not the same quarterly I’m looking at… unless I'm looking at the wrong place?
EDIT*
Ah I see now - looking at the ASX release not the NZX one - my mistake.
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Therein lies the fineprint - Approved in principle...
As frustrating as it is with the time it's taking for the traffic planning, I'd rather that any foreseeable problems such as vehicle bottlenecking, unexpected vehicle breakdowns or emergency vehicle access are planned out well in advance of mining activity started.
We don't want another Pike on our hands - That incident has had an influence on NTL with the H&S and traffic planning.
I'm getting a bit sh*tty with speed of progress as well but, we all know the drill.
Council inspector comes to your site to view progress, note down what you need to do, you pay to get necessary works done, resubmit to council, new council inspector comes to your site and finds a flaw with your earlier progress that previous inspector had no qualms with, you pay to get additional things sorted, lather, rinse, repeat.
Someone sold 80,000 shares for $320 into 0.4c line, likely to make sp appear weak.
Edit*
Aaaand someone (else?) put it straight back up to 0.5c...
I can only hope that once the road is complete then the electrical reticulation ,ventilation , reinforcement and what ever else is needed for this mine to operate has already been designed,ordered and delivered so that there are no further delays. These guys have to start digging out gold. Unfortunately it would be worth betting that this will not happen as I do not have much faith in the management and directors.
There might be a mentality here that if they don't do anything they won't make mistakes. They need to set deadlines and no excuses.
TMP is a big issue at the moment for investor confidence. It was approved in principle way back in 13/04/2016 (NZX annoucement). Also just going back through that it mentions an independent review which found
"The independent report showed that volumes of vehicular and non-vehicular are low and that the level of vehicle movements contemplated by NTL will have an insignificant effect on the efficiency and safety of the roads in question"
If the effects are insignificant, what is the massive hold up? Did council put a bunch of burdensome requests on NTL - cause reasons? Did something change between now and then?
Looking back we also have this statement from that announcement.
"The granting of the Traffic management plan demonstrates that NTL can progress its plans under the resource consents granted by HDC"
Hmmm, bugger.
We can only hope that the below statement from the recent quarterly activities means we will have a positive announcement for this in near future (ideally well prior to next quarterly).
"... and having completed the preliminary roadway design, the focus remains on agreeing the final road design parameters with local council."
Hence, TMP completion is crucial to confidence going forward.
"The granting of the Traffic management plan demonstrates that NTL can progress its plans under the resource consents granted by HDC"
If this isn't misleading by leaving out "in principle" it is certainly presenting the information in the best possible light haha.
2017-2025 Predictions:
1. Hauraki Council demand major upgrades to roadway not anticipated by NTL including possible work to the bridge adjacent to SH2
2. If any site work commences protests featured on the national news due to possible effects on Karangakahe Tourist Park and residents
3. AMER walks after realising that unless resource consent issued for full scale mining being involved doesn't move the needle
4. Treatment of ore becomes an issue
5. If the project isn't abandoned another capital raise is required for bulk sampling commences
I believe NTL deserves to trade at a discount to cash holdings. A lot of this has to do with the companies performance but also New Zealand red tape and public perception of mining which will make it difficult to ever start mining let alone be profitable.
All right, I'll bite :)
#1 Hauraki Council has no basis to demand any of that, and has been working with NTL throughout the multi year process so far. Councillors like good new job stories which NTL could be.
#2 Will occur, but it won't stop the re opening of the mine. Not all of NZ opinion is against mining, just a vocal minority. Remember the last attempt to take on NTL at court? Summarily dismissed for lack of any evidence.
#3 Amer didn't get the cheap deal that they wanted, they may yet walk away but what do we lose? As far as we know - nothing.
#4 Possible, always issues to be overcome.
#5 A risk for any speculative stock isn't making money. NTL have all the money and time to achieve what they have advised.
I disagree re discount to cash holdings - there is certainly value to progress so far (even if we would like to be further progressed).
Antipodean... For some reason I have decided to keep following and ride the directors of this company... Its a bit of a "going short" project... I am actually one of the few shareholders who haven't made a loss on this over the years which makes it a bit strange haha
Is anyone else is willing to go on record with their 2017 predictions??????????
I have obviously gone extremely bearish... but I could be wrong
1 cent by Dec 2017, provided an actual TMP gets formalised and announced.
I'd actually be happy with that.
With regards to TMP, I wonder if the continuous review of roadway design implies the need for a separate roadway each for the entry and exit of mine?
This coming back to my post yesterday about the potential for bottlenecking?
Having one way in and also one way out of the mine would be safer should unexpected events occur?
I’ll give it a shot. All based on current information – outlook hazy.
1. NTLOA will lapse
AUD 0.02 = NZD 0.0208 * 2,076,995,855
Mcap would have to get north of $43.2m to make conversion worthwhile - won't happen until phase 1 mining commences which isn't scheduled until 2018.
2. Amer will leave
Recent wording in announcements – maybe NTL is not going to just sell cheap control to them.
Still unsure what they are bringing to the table
3. TMP will be approved
Prior to May so it can be included in next Quarterly
4. Protests once bulk sampling commences.
As everything is legal and permitted work will continue.
5. PFS will be released
6. SP NZD 0.01 or higher by Christmas
PFS/Bulk sampling/Rahu – lots of irons in the fire.
Another capital raise is almost for certain unless Amer brings something to the table of benefit. I'm having my doubts anything will come of it.
NTL only have half the cash they need to get going (In reality probably well less than half)
But they should be good for this year and progress will be made which should have a positive influence on the share price....
I'll go for 0.8 by years end.
You are absolutely correct. Off hand statement of mine . And you right , mining is not my strong point . Thanks for the advice . One in ,one out would be wise choice of roading. I would be concerned about the amount of trucks over the bridge though , if that is a route . It currently is 2 lane .
Emailed the district council the other week asking what the delay in processing the TMP, wasn't really expecting anything but received a response today:
"Hello, your query has been passed to me for a reply. Council is awaiting information, from New Talisman Gold Mines LTD, which is required to allow this matter to be progressed."
Not sure how to take that, is the council being picky and making more requests to NTL, or are NTL taking their time with the application?