Compared to other Health Care providers OCA is currently about .40c under valued in my view. Deluded covid mania seems to be adversely affecting share price.
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Compared to other Health Care providers OCA is currently about .40c under valued in my view. Deluded covid mania seems to be adversely affecting share price.
This is the standout dog of my portfolio in 2021. Shares have gone backwards after starting the year at $1.45 we are now underwater for 2021 and going nowhere....I feel a song coming on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFgayzZ5KTM
2021 the year OCA bounces up and down and every day feels like groundhog day...watching grass grow would be more exciting !
Suppose I have to hang in there and grind it out.
What’s up with this thread? So bearish.
Nothing has changed. No negative announcement.
Just buy more and hold for long term.
Its called venting your spleen. Must admit I am perplexed. All the analysts love it and the average target price is $1.71 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...268/consensus/ more than 21% north of the closing price today. Why isn't some big institution taking this by the scruff of the neck and buying it up ?
Beagle might have to simply play possum in the headlights for a while, (his most loathed game).
Come in Couta1...you know you want some at this bargain price, get into it mate !
Its hard to fathom how this was trading at $1.32 Dec 31, 2020 with all the increase in housing over the last 18 months. Its up $0.09 cents in this period. I am left scratching my head if we have got this so wrong or there is just a big holder just selling. Still $100m in the bank from bond offer so we must be due some announcement soon on where they are spending. One thing I wish the board would approve is quarterly updates too market.
Yeah, I couldn't agree more. 6 months is too long to wait. Arvida have quarterly investor news updates updating on a number things and SUM have quarterly sales data. OCA desperately need to lift their game on engagement with shareholders because the natives are getting restless.
A lot of selling pressure. I am expecting a disclosure notice very soon for Earl and or Mark, also surprised that OCA hasn't made an announcement about any acquisitions, considering they raised money through the bond issue quite quickly... Covid delay?
TA wise, I see that OCA is around 3.0 Standard deviations from the 150 day linear regression line and is also showing bullish regular divergence on the daily chart (CCI) and hitting the linear regression line for the weekly chart. I topped up a little more ($1.41), I see this as an overdone sell-off. Other operators haven't seen their SP move, so can only put it down too aggressive selling by the guys mentioned above, fundamentals haven't changed as far as we have been made aware.
Quarterly updates would be nice. As you mentioned in a post a while back Beagle, expect this year to be slow and painful with the SP and that it has been.
Been very wary of this stock from the first sets of published accounts and the chart just doesnt look right.
if the P&L required numerous break outs that require study and then questions back to the company accountants if starts to set off little bells.
And every set published after that changes it format, well.
If they are transparent great but they dont look it. Looks a mess.
It will be by the 30th of November but nothing more specific than that has been announced as far as I know. See “Key Dates” in https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre
I must say how rational and together everyone has been during this fall. ALL excellent posts and opinions guys.
Yes, it's all a bit of a mystery why the SP is currently so low. It's in the same market as the others, particularly ARV which it usually is lumped with, are doing just dandy. I'm going over my workings and can't see why OCA might turn in a poor report.
Its Care profit is very predictable and while not overly profitable in isolation, it is a stable income.
I've got the care profit at $13.5m (up 28% from PCP).
Village profit is the tricky one this period as they are predominantly selling down Nelson and Christchurch apartments. These are not that lucrative as far as new sales margin goes (when compared to Auckland) but will come into their own downstream as resales much later. This has been well signaled by OCA.
They did get Eden-Auckland delivered early this HY but Auckland's lockdown and winter will be dragging on that delivery`s new sales progress. This however will have time to shine in HY2. So these sales will be the big variable in this HY1.
Village profit will most likely be flat ( but higher prices and Eden sales just may surprise to the upside ) Whatever the lockdown effect is on HY1 we can assume will just transfer into HY2 so overall this the full year should still be up at least 20% YOY at $60m.( analysts are saying around about the same thing too)I have had to make no changes to my workings for this FY.
I also maintain mid next year at a PE20 expectations of the SP is still $1.90
So while I am still unwavering on the fundamental value of OCA I do find the current market trading activity surprising but also fascinating.
For several weeks now the average “buy” order sizes are tiny, around 1,500-3,000 per parcel ( most unusual - is it just Sharesies orders making it to market?) While the average “sells” lined up are the usual amounts on average around at least 15,000 .
This tells me a big seller/s have got off market “sell” orders sitting on the desks at the broking houses that are being satisfied “off market” by any semi decent sell order that comes in and gets hoovered up at a broker's desk before going to market - thus avoiding NZX fees. Notice the big regular daily off market trades happening. This has the effect of frustrated sellers having to accept whatever they can get on market from the tiny “buy” nibbles on the NZX platform. Even a few sell orders quickly overwhelms any small buyers causing constant downward pressure.
We have seen this behavior a few times before but usually only last about a week. This time its 2 weeks and counting so it must be a big order. Logically at some point this big order will complete and normal “buys”' will make it to market again and then all functioning efficiently once again. IMO the share price will rise rapidly at this time.
But despite my pointless little theory, it is still essentially a big seller/s however the process is being executed.
We can see from all the many clues amongst its peers that industry wide things are going gangbusters. All NZ results on any measure are stronger than ever.
I have studied to great depth all aspects of this company and when broken down to small parts it's very logical and predictable. Other than one of its new acquisitions sitting on a pile of asbestos I personally don't fear OCA has some dark secret and someone else knows something that we don't. (Greg T doesn't seem worried either).
Whatever happens over the next month ,on late November results day, I'm expecting to see it in the early $1.60s
sorting this stock out is almost a full time job and from MR M posts it must be his near full time occupation.
Almost need a development magazine of their own as these retirement villages become bigger and bigger.
Waltz, you hit the nail on the head, it is. Its taken me 3 years to get it dailed in.
it's only fair to share some of that hard work as my contribution in exchange for the many excellent posters on Sharetrader offering their own expertise and opinions.
Thanks Maverick for putting in the time again. As you put it certainly is a mystery having purchased Oceania and Arvida shares at the same time some time ago and both working on similar models just can’t see why there is such a vast difference in gain in share price. Have noted there has been big orders off market and someone constantly feeding for sale side and lots of buyers on small amounts. Having purchased a couple of top ups myself I’m amazed that purchases aren’t in droves, there isn’t much else on market at present at a reasonable price. If Greg T doesn’t seem worried that’s peace of mind that man knows his stuff only have to look at his background. Thanks again Maverick.
It is good to read your post for a bit of perspective.
From the recent dividend payment from another company, I topped up yesterday with a purchase of 2,100 shares via Direct broking (satisfied by 3 transactions!). While not a large purchase I didn't think it was tiny...
However it is all relative :cool:
An investor may go over weight on a stock if their research has the depth to match the percentage of their portfolio allocations.
No doubt about it MR M has but in the "Mahi".
" three $20 orders"
ok .......:confused:
Unsure if anyone has posted these before but quite cool to see pics of the flagship location.
https://www.argon.co.nz/portfolio-it...ania-waimarie/
From marketscreener
SUM share price currently 1% higher than average target / ARV 5% lower and OCA 18% lower.
Guru analysts pretty clued up ..... seem about right with ARV and SUM but obviously totally optimistic and had their judgement clouded by the hype generated
If they took their rose tinted glasses of they probably come up with something like $1.50 as a target and be in line reality (like with SUM and ARV)
don't we only believe 'consensus' average targets when we want to
Not everyone has buckets of cash sitting around ready to use when an opportunity arises like this one. If you have ever read anything I have posted, you know my situation. Sharesies made it possible for me to get back into investing, on a below average income. Not all my orders are this small, but if I have a spare $20 or $30, why would I not use it to buy additional shares?
Every dollar invested is a dollar working for me. My portfolio has grown from $2000 just over two years ago, to $22,000 today. I could never have achieved that without the ability to place small orders.
Price relativity to NTA is a big factor to be considered here. Profit is driven off the back of property gains so bang for your buck buying really close to NTA seems like the best strategy to me. Mav tells us OCA are building more independent living apartments in the years ahead which I see as a good thing. Other operators are building more care suites...ironic wouldn't you say ?
I buy in '$5' increments on 12 shares, every... single... day. I say '$5' as its higher or lower depending on the movement - more if its lower, less if its higher, as I'm value averaging in. Allows you to act like a bot to get a low average buy price (only takes 3 minutes a day to get all the trades done). I dont have a lump sum either (for this portfolio) - so invest slowly what you've got when you can. You'd get slaughtered in fees on any other platform.
I think the Sharesies type platforms are underrated with how many more strategies you can try.
average trade this morning is about vol 15000.
to make money on the platforms likes Direct you need to buy at the best rate.
bigger buying support starting to play in.
Yes. Premium to NTA of OCA as at 31/03/21 of $1.20 and not including work in progress on developments 8 cps and discount on unsold units about another 8 cps, so adjusted fair value NTA as at 31 March 2021 was about $1.36 and the real estate market has gone up very strongly since then so OCA trading right on, or very close too fair normalized value NTA at $1.41. On the other hand the closest is ARV at 46% premium to NTA, (will be a bit lower if you normalise it like for OCA) and SUM 2.1 x NTA and RYM 2.7 x NTA.
We know the real earnings with OCA is the net increase in NTA + dividends paid during the year ;)
Continuous supplier @ 1.42 .... in lots of 50,000
Mark Stockton still had 1,700,000 shares not long ago, Earl 1,000,000 - I honestly think this is just overhang and they've both decided to sell.
Marks Linkedin mentions he resigns from his role to pursue other exciting opportunities - needs the money most likely.
I have just spoken to my broker who said that their well respected analyst is not so positive on Oceania and thinks that there is institutional selling due to the risks that he’s highlighted. Unlike Rym or Sum it’s a high care model (was nearly half) so real pressure on wages plus the added CVD costs. Also the risks of capital gain are to the downside with interest rates on the move. He thinks it will continue to go down in price.
when delta infects the retirement villages and it will ( big risk factor ) , stocks in the sector will re-act downwards
In australia the latest outbreak has been led by unvaxed workers
Delta variant drives concerns about outbreaks at long-term care facilities
the unvaxed workers are spreading it rife
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...ities-n1275566
Retirement village operators have been advised that they cannot require staff to be vaccinated, unless the staff member occupies a “high risk” role
Some large villages require new employees to be vaccinated. Ryman Healthcare introduced that in April last year and Summerset Group also now requires that of new employees
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...d-to-residents
the market will re-act to the first signs of contagion in villages and in fact it already is with the sector not per-forming at all the last mth since the govt change of strategy from elimination to living with it
Officials in some states have begun sounding the alarm about outbreaks among long-term care facilities and nursing homes as delta variant fuels cases.
Deleted ..... letting it go
Fair comment, bull. .. and investors live with the consequences. Vaccination for new employees only is dumb.
Hopefully our government will mandate vaccinations for all aged-care workers. Seems stupid not to.
"He thinks it will continue to go down in price."
Mr M might have done more work on this than the insto's. Its a very difficult one to call unless you have very well developed models and you almost have to know every site developed and the speed of conversion.
Its so complex it almost like the PM's advise on visiting friend level 3 against Dr Blowfelds advise.
More scenarios then Einstein can model.
Situation is surely risky for the retirement villages then before thats why they giving u this opportunity SP ...Can go lower if it becomes more ugly or reality is more bad then whats built in current SP .
Investors at present need think ahead ...Will they come out only bruised or fully intact or badly hurt with current CVD situation in NZ ...other countries examples are showing that this will turn out to be minor blip and things will return to normal after we at NZ also get used to CVD around ...its new for us at the moment .
Fantastic post! :t_up: Well done JK.
It is all relative to each persons situation.
I have a small portion of my holdings through Sharsies, perhaps around 10-15%. Some of the companies I hold in Sharsies are the same as other holdings, but use it for bit of a play and follow companies with a XS holding that might have an eye on. Probably will also use it more for ASX/US holdings.
Also have it for my daughter, and while she doesn't have alot of interest in it currently, the money would be in the bank earning next-to-nothing. Some of the holdings and divvies are really quite small, but can re-invest cheaply and easily. Some have been as small as a couple of bucks.
Bought her another couple hundy dollars of OCA this morning as long term hold.
There is always a risk that covid will get in. But as I have said before, the vast majority of residents and staff will already be fully vaccinated. Hopefully, that will reduce the risk of anyone who gets it, getting seriously ill. Yes, no doubt some will, but I am hopeful that most will not.
Secondly, also as I have said before, providers will continue to put restrictions in place as needed, regardless of what is happening outside in terms of levels. They will always err on the side of caution.
And finally, even if the worst scenario happens, the people living in these villages/care facilities, have nowhere else to go. This is their home. So, the likes of RYM, SUM and OCA will continue to exist. They provide an aged care service that is needed. We cannot do without them. So yes, there may be temporary "set backs" but in the long run, they will be fine.
JMHO for what its worth.
Short term down trend is showing ....wall of sellers @ 1.42 ....Will they try to break 140s ??
Shall we buy the dip ? Keeping adding in small lots ...all the way to what ? 1.30 or 1.20 ....Bull says $ 1.00 !!!! :scared:
Hope he’s not one of these ‘analysts’ that are setting up a big short
Like those evil ones who produce outrageous reports mentioning things like obscure financials hiding accounting discrepancies, overstating asset value, holding land that can’t be developed etc etc and other bad things that they can think up.
Target companies have seen share prices collapse on the back of these reports …..objective achieved by the author / analyst
Back on board and going long on this one, had to sell some power shares at a loss to do so but hey I'm used to that, it was just too tempting at these prices.
"already be fully vaccinated."
not so, new study out shows fully vaccinated for over 65 is 3 jabs not 2.
Applies to the PHIZZY juice!
OOOPS!!!!!
"Yep, $3 in 10 years will be good"
if thats all SELL.
"positive about the company than you clearly are."
Mr M might be expecting more than 3 dollars in 10 years?
Mr B might also be expecting a little more?
If your looking for a slow growth company than 3 dollars in 10 years is a good return if your expecting stagflation for a long period. Oh thats Sri-Kumar!
Right now the DIV is what?
If their is a healthy cash surplus for the next DIV plus imputation credits then your in the money.
COMPANY->DIVRECEIVED = ?;
This is one stock all Bs are not together ...Mr B positive and has equal holding , Bull is super negative ...looking for $ 1 ...Balance not interested ...W69 seems negative ...not very clear with his intentions here . Couta is positive so Mr B and Mr C along with our best analyst Mav ...BP is also positive and holds lots as per his last disclosure .
Overall a mixed bag ...but I think its a safe bet in long and medium term too ... $ 1.65 by Nov end after results very possible . By then NZ will get used to CVD around too so will be less scared and more prepared :D
"BP is also positive and holds lots as per his last disclosure "
Mr P is missing ...
Well Mr C may we defer to Mr M.
After all he appears to have done as much or more work on this one as any insto and would be happy to attend his on line paid for webnar on the stock.
Mr M appears to know the exact location and progress on each site and any site he doesnt know about there might be a drone over head soon.
suggest we just refer to him as M.
ohhh what have I done ...I made sleepy OCA thread like SKT one ...:eek2:
"negative on OCA "
I have no view at present and defer to M.
Based on the price the markets pays for a Net return on Equity assuming the capital has no cost except opportunity (remember your economics units) WHS is returning a high yield.
If the present WHS and OCA yields continue then MR B might move WHS from a HOLD to a BUY.
If Mrs C has insider information then your conviction on this stock might indeed be high.
For a company that main function is to service a demographic where BOWLS is the hottest sport on closed circuit TV and the LOUNGE goes WILD every friday morning tea time.
Have to say its a credit to the company it has the highest attention rate in the retirement sector on sharetrader.
If yield continues is the catch here ...Even upcoming divvy is conditional ...Mr B got out as he knows the outcomes of conditions ...like ATM gave in AGM 2020 ...full of conditions and we all know what happened in Dec 2020
WHS is getting these multiples for good reason . So u cant take conditional stand " If yield continues " ...then even I will switch all money to WHS as it will pay 10% back every year ...
"So u cant take conditional stand " If yield continues ""
amended statement.
Well afternoon tea and perhaps M could ask OCA what there Bowls attendance and zumba? number are doing.
A happy bunch of settlers in the villages will make for a successful company that will at least hopefully not lose much money.
"Almost 2000 posts and no reputation points. "
they are turned off.
check your general settings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_the_Courtier
If you're not liked among a bunch of out-of-touch elites then you're doing something right.
Though WZ.. the grammar could be improved.
Reading Waltzingironmansinlgesculs posts like doing a crossword. Mostly I find the crosswords easier:t_up:
GAMMA ..
i agree ..
but im busy with french conjugation.
now back to OCA.
M is the person with the numbers and therefore i suggest its a contest between the insto and M.
Was in Nelson recently and it was simply stunning.
Is MR P therefore Panda. If Mr Percy is P and Panda is PD.
i like wz posts they are good for keeping the brain active
think having both long and short views expressed is what investing is about isnt it.
Most of the day is spent debugging CPP written by experts that cant be understood; that processes transactions.
After 30 years of programming languages i dont even remember the english language.
Id Field length.
actually i was hoping they extend the field.
For those wondering why reputation is missing in action it's in your profile setting's.
Note: If you set a flag in a database it doesnt mean its going to be accessed by software every time an API runs.
Thats why on FB your data setting might get bypassed if an rest API is bypassed ; should never happen of course. But how else did all that data get into cambridge ATL hands.
hear hear would appreciate it too
Ok i will type it up first before slapping around the characters.
theres definitely some big player selling . i managed to sneak in a chunky order at 4.59 which prob should have missed the cutoff but got filled after