I'm picking it'll break that 225 barrier today, just a guess :)
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Hi couta, you should know that the 4 traders consensus is a 12 months target, which means that the analysts assume this stock to slightly drop over the next 12 months. Sure - they are not always right (who is?), but these things do happen (stocks dropping). Did this never happen to your investments ;)?
At least AIR gave them their money back .....butwhat a disappointment
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel...-booking-error
Just booked all our flights to Q/Town for our 2 winter excursions this year, it's going to be a cracker of a year for Air on the domestic front this year with all that's going on plus your normal tourism, bring it on.
Stats NZ on the growth in visitor numbers for November said thevstrongest growth in visitor numbers in percentage terms came from Argentina. Tourists from there rose by 223%
good on you AIR - making it easier to visit NZ with those new flights. Good for AIR and good for NZ
Pays to be a bit clever when you're booking with AIR especially when you're in the provinces.
The best price on their website travelling from Napier to Queenstown and return in mid-February was $366 each way! Those flights were via Wellington and/or Christchurch and were the only ones quoted online.
A quick check on the cost of a multi-stop trip flying via Auckland saved me $76 getting there and $156 coming back. Total travel time including stopovers was the same for either of the options. Still very expensive but felt good beating the system!
Good tip for anyone in the provinces Pierre!
Queenstown has lots of flights/seats to Auckland but struggle through Welly or Chch. Sometimes pays to go north to go south!
PT what do you make of the latest op stats seems to be more of the same being flying more for less $$$
Or we could talk about air here couta on the correct thread ........
Recommend by Paper Tiger :)
https://resizing.flixster.com/ia1DdG...MDA7NjQxOzk0OQ https://resizing.flixster.com/wgo4Ap...A7MzM3NTs1MDAw https://resizing.flixster.com/pv3Q00...MDA7NjkwOzkyMQ
Waiting to watch (Jackie Chan, Matt Damon & Shah Rukh Khan respectively):
https://resizing.flixster.com/xvsUzV...A7MTQwMDsyMDc0 https://resizing.flixster.com/5q5frA...A7MTI5OTsxNzMy https://resizing.flixster.com/IJuAs5...MDA7Njk0OzkyNQ
Due to a conflict of interest I am currently unable to comment on Air New Zealand.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/
Seems average pre tax analyst estimate for FY18 has been revised up and is now $495m. They're estimating an average of $503 for Fy17 in the mid point of the companies own forecast.
I think you can treat the average analyst forecast for FY19 of just over $400m with a grain of salt at this stage.
I like the way it's holding 220 today, sets up for a move higher into 230s ready for earnings.
Anyone know the release date?
hopefully it can still close at 220... not looking good this afternoon
A few will no doubt be cashing up while its had a good recovery and some avoiding the unknown with upcoming 6 month interim results perhaps?
If there are like me.. already sold a third with another third will trigger under certain SP movement. I think a lot will have already altered what was an oversized parcel on the recovery.
I think the reporting result will be ok and will not be our concern however our mate Trump may make it a traders paradise shortly, may be worth the title, the year of the trader in time :-)
I thought about it but I don't hold as much as I used to when it was performing well or when catching the knife on the down fall. I think with tourism the way it is competition may not have the substantial impact, still there as per operating stats but I think the interim results will be reasonable and suggest a good divvy although after the last generous special maybe the purse strings will be a bit tighter looking ahead at potentially more challenging times.
Yep, Trump is a loose canon, a tweet here and there can bring many to their knees in an instant.
Bought back in today at $2.17. Only a modest holding. Hopefully an as expected div. I look forward to hearing everyones thoughts over the coming days. Just a quick one, when are results expected?
Just noticed that consensus and recommendations on 4traders slipped during last week. New 12 month consensus is $2.10 (down from $2.16) and new recommendation is a straight "hold" (5 down from 5.4); Analyst revenue assumptions dropped by roughly $30m for each of the next 3 years and EPS assumptions (minus 1 cent) as well as dividend assumptions for this year (slightly) reduced;
SP pattern could develop into a new "mini" H&S - but what do I know?
couta, with all due respect ... while it is easy and fashionable to beat up analysts, for the bunch of stocks I follow they hit the target price to roughly 60% over the last handful of years (meaning that the SP reaches or exceeds the consensus value at least once in the 12 month forecast window, excluding any shares where they predict a fall). This means, they are not perfect, but their predictions do add value.
Looking at AIR: consensus forecast for December 2016 (i.e made in December 2015) was $3.03. While AIR's highest SP in this month was $2.20, the share reached a high in January 2016 of $3.23 ... i.e. selling at that time you would have made money trusting the analysts ;)
As well - as far back as I can see picked the analysts for AIR in the past always target prices too high (if we look not a the 12 month period, but only at the target month). Over the 12 month window, they have been surprisingly accurate for AIR (in most 12 month periods in the last year less than 10% deviation from the target). Why do you think this suddenly changed?
Concentrating on the negative there BP. http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/ Forecast net profit before tax for FY18 is now $501m the same as for FY17, so a significant upgrade from the expected profit decline that most analysts have previously been forecasting for FY18. Their FY19 guess, (yes it really is a guess that far out in this industry), has also gone up slightly to $422m. FY18 is consistent with my view that yields are stabilizing and that the initial period of intense competition from new entrants to the N.Z. market won't last forever. Forecasts are consistent with their ability to pay 20 cps fully imputed dividends for the next three years contemporaneously with completing their major fleet modernization program.
Did you notice that on the relevant table the FY18 EBT is higher than the FY18 EBIT (negative interest?) and that EBIT & NPAT for FY18 is less than FY17 (*)? They might have mixed up some numbers, somewhat invalidating your positive assumptions for 2018.
What I want to point out - you are very welcome to be optimistic and put your money where your mouth is ... but it might be a good idea to review whether this optimism is based on solid data or just finger trouble.
(*) disclosure ... a friendly fellow poster who wants to be unnamed pointed me to this issue before I saw your post :);
Well the Nervous Nellies are back.!
The sp ,$2.18, has fallen below the 200 day EMA [moving average] $2.20.
We live in interesting times.?
Yes, the chart looks ominous. Hoop nailed the top, question is where to from here.
LOL good luck with that approach mate and everyone knows we're mates so you know I mean that...but please be aware that your approach isn't recommended. See the section about diversification.
http://www.biblemoneymatters.com/wha...out-investing/ Joshua 1 V7 (be strong and courageous)...needs to be balanced with other advice contained in the good book.
P.S. I was going to e.mail you the above link mate but I decided others might also benefit from some of the wisdom in the link.
Still no sign of those op stats for Dec 16...
You tube " Eva b77w LAX"
ATC tape of recent departure LAX where EVA nearly buried one of their aircraft in the hills to the north
December monthly update is in.
Looks to be in line with forecast, yield per passenger better. On flights with good synergies, high frequency and lower costs, lower RASk's are OK.
Can someone please take the time to educate me on what RASK, ASK, and RPK is and what we are looking for in these to assess performance. Thanks in advance.
RPK is revenue per passenger kilometre, but aircraft may be only half full that is why they also report load factors.
RASK revenue available seat kilometre, ie capacity. On routes that have lower costs usually associated with higher frequencies lower RASKs are acceptable.
Thanks peat. So a higher RASK means more profitable and a reduction in RASK means they have been less profitable from the previous update or time period. Is that correct?
Group wide RASK down 9.3%. Group wide yield down 7.9%. They have made 1.4% in cost savings. Or is my logic flawed?
monthly stats are starting to paint a picture of competition starting to bite.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11788663
Passenger revenue in the first six months of Air New Zealand's financial year has fallen sharply, even when the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations are eliminated.
In an update to the NZX, the country's national airline said for the financial year to date, short haul passenger revenue through its preferred metric had fallen 6.3 per cent, while long-haul passenger revenue had slumped 14.3 per cent.
Air New Zealand's preferred metric is passenger revenue divided by the total capacity for the period, what it terms RASK.
When foreign exchange is eliminated, group-wide RASK fell 9.3 per cent, while yields, which represent passenger revenue per passenger kilometre flown fell 7.9 per cent.
For the month of December, Air New Zealand flew 1.59 million people, an increase of 5.4 per cent on the year earlier, although its aircraft weren't as full as a year earlier, with 83.5 per cent of all seats sold, down 1.5 per cent on December 2015.
This was mainly due to a fall in sales on flights to Asia, Japan and Singapore. 86.3 per cent of seats were sold on these services, down 5.6 per cent on a year ago. The airline had increased services in this region by 10.8 per cent, reflecting a new seasonal service between Japan and Osaka.
The percentage of seats sold on flights across the Tasman and the Pacific fell 2.7 per cent to 78.4 per cent. This was due to capacity rising faster than demand, with some routes switching to a larger aircraft and growth on the Perth and some Pacific Island routes.
Air New Zealand reported its best full year earnings in its 76-year history in August for the financial year which ended on June 30, 2016. Earnings before significant items and tax rose 70 per cent to $806m. Staff were paid a bonus to reflect the record results, while shareholders got a special one-off dividend.
At the time, the airline warned the outlook ahead was less rosy due to increased competition and rising fuel prices. It said it expected operating earnings for the 2017 financial year in the range of $400m to $600m.
The details are contained in the airline's monthly update to investors, which details December's market conditions. Air New Zealand's financial year runs from the beginning of July to the end of June. It's full half-year financial results are due to be released on February 23.
Air New Zealand declined to comment.
Shares of Air New Zealand rose 0.2 per cent or half a cent to $2.195. They've fallen 0.2 per cent since the start of the year.
Yawn,Yawn boysy, it's all baked into the current price and then some.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/251976.pdf
Looks reasonable to me and I it looks to me that they're on track to meet the mid point of their profit guidance. If it were not so I believe they would have provided updated guidance by now.
As long as they are within the guidance which was itself as wide as a 747 they can do as they please I would of thought. One has to question what result has me market and the outlook going forward priced in ?
That's correct Roger, any major deviance from their forecast numbers would've prompted a trading update from the company. I think most of lower level of earnings are pretty much built into current sp and commentary at HY earnings next months re future outlook will determine how far the price can go.
That The Herald story gave the impression that revenues were down heaps - short haul 6.3% and long haul 14.3%. Using words like slumped implies disaster stuff.
Better get Paper Tiger to point out that things are not that bad eh = RASK is not revenues
How much revenues down PT - need an update we do
I think you might just have to "wing it" mate as Paper Tiger said a while back that he couldn't comment due to a "conflict of interest" Maybe he's on assignment with Tiger Airways :)
Anyway for what its worth the numbers looked slightly better in December than they did in November including year to date numbers.
Half year result is out in less than a month, on 23 February and I am sure we'll get a clear picture of how the year is progressing then and in the meantime this hound won't be panicked by any silly herald reporting and remains content to sit by the food bowl waiting for his next feed.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c...kiwi-gainshtml
Inflation for the December quarter. excerpt
Quote:
Other transport costs also rose in the quarter, with international air fares up 11 percent and domestic fares rising 9.7 percent on heightened demand ahead of the holiday period. On an annual basis, international air fares fell 5.7 percent and domestic prices were down 1 percent.*
Still holding 100% of my portfolio. Almost Feb. ... guess I have to plan to sell at least some to pay the dang tax man
It is on days such as today, one's mind turns to "Snow Patrol's" great hit "Run."..........lol.
Nothing disingenuous about the article it was pulled straight from the nzx release. Those here claim competition was built into the share price could very well be mistaken when the company outlook is released in February. If load factors continue to fall and they fly further for less I suspect the financial pain has only just started for air NZ.
http://caroleschiffer.com/realtor/wp...ent-5-1-16.jpg
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
It's all guru analyst at Craigs fault - lowering their target and taking a pessimistic view on this years earnings
Seemsworried about the $10/barrel increase in fuel costs
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0...s-analystshtml
Ok it dropped 3% when I posted.... I'll stay quiet
Closed on the 100 day EMA
Notice he also said, In the medium term, it's prospects remain solid and it's well positioned for the longer term due to its quality product, market position and demand growth. Things some of us are already well aware of, he did forget to mention reducing Capex though but we'll let him away with that aye.
AIR always seems to do this to me. Buy in, SP falls heavy, sell and it climbs. Am I cursed.....
You are entitled to your opinion boysy just like you were when you were so adamant that HLG was going to be a train wreck but is now up over 30% including the dividend and all that since you so adamantly made your very negative point of view clear on numerous occasions.
I am very comfortable with my viewpoint that the press article was at the very least very poorly articulated, (I don't feel the need to spend endless ages unpacking exactly why on here) and in such a manner as to give a disingenuous viewpoint that revenue had fallen off a cliff.
You need to interpret data my friend...you simply cannot take it at face value and just like your pet store's such as H&M haven't destroyed HLG, Air Asia X, Jetheap and the other cheap and nasty airlines aren't going to destroy AIR. I will enjoy my AIR dividends just as much as my HLG ones :p
I disagree with Craigs assessment. Yields are already firming in response to slightly higher fuel prices since Sept and yield and fuel price is inextricably linked.
sold some in the closing auctions last week at 2.24 and 2.27, bought 'em back in the closing auction today at 2.12
do what you think's right
Updated Paper Tiger's numbers seeing his lips are sealed
Year on Year Cumulative Revenue Comparisons:
Short Haul:
Jul: 99.36%
Aug: 99.26%
Sep: 99.18%
Oct: 99.65%
Nov: 99.30%
Dec: 98.48%
Long Haul:
Jul: 99.99%
Aug: 98.62%
Sep: 98.07%
Oct: 97.13%
Nov: 96.21%
Dec: 93.24%
He said the maths were easy- easy enough for me I hope. He might break his seal of silence if I have them wrong.
As PT has said in the past some good news and some not so good news
Short haul better than November - that's good
If my maths are further correct passenger revenues will be down $8m or 3.8% on prior year
Not as much as the Herald were suggesting
Well, I'm hearing that the Trumposity is about to sign a rescindment of the ESTA regulations, so henceforth anyone wanting to visit the USA will have to attend a mano a mano interview at an American embassy, I'm thinking that this isn't going to be great for AIR. Thoughts?
From the table accompanying the Dec release - all figures for the group, i.e. total sales and are as follows where X = last year to date sales.
RPK's are up 5.5% so X x 1.055 = 1.055. "Removing the impact of foreign exchange group wide yields YTD have decreased 7.9%"
Therefore 1.055 X at 7.9% lower average yield gives 1.055 x .921 = X = 0.971655 a 2.83% passenger sales decline in $Kiwi.
Note you do not need to account for lower loads as this is already factored into RPK's, i.e. RPK's are not revenue per available seat kilometers (RASK's).
Therefore passenger sales have fallen 2.83% in currency adjusted dollar terms for the year to date, (a vastly different figure than what has been inaccurately reported today). That still leaves freight, engineering and other sales and the profit they made on the disposal of their stake in VAL this half as compared to the carrying value as at 30 June 2016.
Of course they flew further but were using more efficient planes and fuel was cheaper than last year.
Customer revenue in the six months to 31/12/2015 was $2,308m, so I'm expecting circa $65m reduction in gross sales.
I think people are losing sight of the fact that profit of $801m before tax for the Fy16 year was heavily skewed to the fist half with $457m in 1H FY16 and only $344m in 2H FY16.
Of course this years yields will look worse, you're comparing two starkly different sets of circumstances, 1H FY16 when AIR had very little competition to 1H FY17 when competition is the diametric opposite.
That said even if all those sales came straight off the bottom line they made $457 before tax in the first half last year so $457 - $65m = $392m this half.
Of course I'm not suggesting that will be the number but the purpose of this post is to highlight the heralds folly and the folly generally of reading too much into the yield decline.
I know someone will ask me to put my gonads on the line pretty soon and ask what my estimate is of 1H Fy17 profit before tax so to preempt that I'll put it out there... I'm estimating $240m before tax.
That ESTA was a good money spinner for them but cant imagine it being good for the US economy to shut down tourism like that which Trump as much as a loose cannon he is there does seem to be an impetus on anything good for the USA economy. I certainly wont go there once my current ESTA runs out or is cancelled if they implement anything like that..... So yep, AIR and other airlines on those routes will no doubt feel some effect.
Bit of an ugly day for AIR, plenty cashing in on the gains after riding the SP up and as we know, FA doesn't seem to account for much when it comes to AIR, what will tomorrow bring, bargain hunters or more jumping ship? I am not putting any money on it that's for sure.
Good points Roger. Only time will tell but my analysis points to Craig's being overly negative. There's still almost 5 months of the year to go but my guess based on RPKs, yields, fuel, more efficient planes etc is they they'll make $500-550m NPBT. I'd say I'm $100m more optimistic than Craig's but one of us will be wide of the mark.
I wonder if travel to Wellington was impacted by the earthquakes since November.
I for one used to travel to work with AIR NZ every two weeks to NZ Post House. Since the earthquake I've been just twice as our building was impacted. I noted that prices to Wellington dropped over November and December to Wellington as not as many businesses were travelling there (where AIR NZ often charge as much as $350 one way) on peak flights.
That may have a small impact on total domestic revenue. I imagine things will be back to normal now as businesses get back to offices.
Agree, great work Roger and i share your sentiments Arbroath, many have overlooked just how good Air are going to do on the domestic front this year. I'm amazed that people give an analyst so much kudos and sell down because of his opinion, I almost feel sorry for them.
Whichever way you slice and dice the numbers 10c divvy for this half is sure thing I reckon.....
Seems to be tracking along ok so far today. Bigger volume buying in than selling. Will be interesting to see what happens in Friday afternoon trading.
Not at all mate. 2H incorporates the busy summer season and yields on tickets sold have been firming lately, (remember there's an average two month lag between ticket sale and travel date). A lot of the shoulder season fares in October / November were sold a few months earlier when oil was low and competition was very hot. This summer season the tourists are here in record numbers and I predict when future monthly stat's come out you'll see yield looking comparatively better than it has been YTD.
Actually mate we're starting to see evidence of that already. In the November operating stat's group yield YTD was down 8.6% compared to last year and in the December stat's group yield YTD was down 7.9%. Conclusion, ticket sales towards the back end of the IH must have been at quite a bit better yields to move the YTD yield needle that much in just one month (Dec).
I think we'll continue to see that YTD yield decline reduce as the year goes on. I think $260-$280m is on the cards for 2H FY17.
That's the one, there is going to be so much going on, on the domestic front for the rest of this year that the 2nd half will definately be better in my opinion, plus if the summer is anything to go by then we are in for a cracker winter and ski season. Disc-In top up mode today.
Couta. The possibility of the weather patterns being good for winter (skiing, travel, visitors...etc) are not certain. There was less rain fall and more wind over the last winter. Climate change will create seemingly chaotic events buried amongst a background trend line. What will emerge over the next 5 years is larger and longer lasting storms.
After being astounded with this number the other day I've done some sums and now reckon you are a bit light with your $240m (which signals they haven't been any more efficient than last year)
Using your passenger revenue forecast (known within a few million) and assuming no great change in other revenue streams total revenues will be about $2.63 million
CASK has been improving over the last few years (efficiencies etc) and if we use a CASK of 9.0 cents (H!16 was 9.4 and H2 was 9.1) and plugging in numbers for finance costs etc one comes to an NPBT of $310m
Whatever MOPS has been could upset that CASK assumption. MOPS was US$60/barrel in H1 last year so maybe about the same this year. But if no improvement in CASK and it is same as last years 9.4 cents then NPAT will be about $230m
Whatever I reckon H1 could be around $300m which would set up a good full year result.
Praying for a good CASK - as no doubt AIR are else they will need to rewrite the Slides on CASK and CASK Improvement which they proudly touted at last announcements.