topped out right around the $12 lol be interesting if stays in the range
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topped out right around the $12 lol be interesting if stays in the range
Bet you had a fun day 😀 Intraday double top = first and second chance to scalp the decent swing. Behaving nicely on TA isn't it. Might have another shot at breaking out tomorrow, a bounty for day traders albeit a pricey head share gives little margin for missing a move.
Good day for the A stocks , my ATM up 6.1%, 68c, fab
My APX up 12% ,$1.38, thunderbirds are go.
my read bottomed around that 10.40 same area as in late may. lets see what happens now resistance was around 11.80 - 12 currently consolidating in 11.70 - 12 on the 5 and 15 , see which way it goes. good reward to risk trading around the edges of the range otherwise its to much chop and risk anything in the middle. ranges make for good reward / risk , longs and shorts intraday.
https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/a2-milk-...en-grow-faster
"A2 Milk has pushed out its break-even point in the United States by a year because distribution growth has been much faster than expected.
Managing director Jayne Hrdlicka says that means the company is seizing the opportunity to build a larger business which means spending more in the short-term.
“The distribution growth is now much faster than we had expected and the opportunity is there right now,” Ms Hrdlicka says.
“What happens when you accelerate distribution growth is you’re investing a lot in building up those points of distribution which then means that it takes a bit longer to get the rate of sales up across all distribution points to deliver the profit momentum that’s inherent in a more established position,” she says."
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...651/285117.pdf
They are increasing their stake
News on Walmart is now selling A2 milk over in States.
https://www.thedailytimes.com/busine...cfc210c4a.html
Hi MauroNZ. The market is always a forward looking beast. Average analyst forecast shows a forward PE of about 30 at the current price which I think is pretty reasonable for such a high growth company. You need to look at the EBITDA loss of (nearly $30m from memory) on U.S. operations to understand that the PE could be lower if they were not investing heavily for future growth.
Honestly I think this is a bit of a lottery where to from here in the very short term. Once we have more data in terms of first half sales for FY19 we'll be in a far better position to understand how their growth is currently tracking. Long term they are probably a good hold but could range trade in the ~ 10.50 - $12 range for a while.
As others have been.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bulli...003452713.html
Didn't take long before the Aussie robots kicked in.
Xero is catching up to the total value of this company. They just passed $50 Australian dollars per share valuing them just over $7 billion, while A2 is $7.8 billion...... all quoted in aussie dollars. Crazy times we live in
You will get your 'wrong' eventually. It is certain that what SP would do either up or down. :)
It is a long term hold for me and its future of A2 looking bright still.
BTW that has so much talk on radio talk show and on the net about prices of milk and different tastes of milk... I love this country! It seems likes a lot of interest and debate over milk.
15 minutes of bargains to go. Australia about to wake up and hopefully get us over $12 today. (they are in a bit of a political frother lather at the moment so should get into SML as well)
Edit. Cant say we weren't told. AUD$11.03 before we knew it
Off topic but is anyone else having issues with anz securities at the mo?
12 holds again
nice triple top in aus too see if we can smash it below 10.60
bottomed out perfectly at 10.58
consolidating at the 50% retracement of the days range currently after that move peaked at the 61%
Back in California after 6 months and now they stock it at WholeFoods in Palo Alto..
Attachment 9875
I'm following A2 USA on their facebook page, and the numbers of likes has increased substantially.
Reviews interesting as well.
Doesn't matter what any scientific reports says. It's the customer's opinion that counts. Even if they may go against every fact presented. It's a sad state of affairs in general but for A2 Milk and other 21st Century snake oils it's great.
discl. happy holder
But will it hold again...
"Trading on a PEG of 0.9x in FY19 and FY20, we maintain our Add recommendation and have increased our share price target."
https://www.morgans.com.au/Blog/2018...ss-all-metrics
Are we forgetting that GS is a brokering business? Them reducing their stake = strong bids buying off them. It's when a broker becomes a substantial holder that's when nobody's buying.
You're most welcome. I see on 4traders there's been some major broker revisions to forecast and now rated outperform with an average price target of $12.91. https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MI...022/consensus/
As an aside, NZX market in enquiry state due to problem with X-Stream.
Save everything to the cloud they tell us. Its safe there and you can access it at any time. Little birdie tells me vast numbers of doctors and healthcare providers systems were inoperable yesterday and caused chaos across medical practices throughout the country. Blame the Russian hackers I suppose....
https://news.sky.com/story/china-may...limit-11483634
Some more beautiful news :t_up:
Not really news and not necessarily a guarantee for an increasing number of children. China's problem is that more than one generation grew now up as single child without siblings - being part of a large family is not anymore the cultural standard. As well - the number of women in child bearing age in China is rapidly declining.
Maybe ATM should export to Africa - plenty of young people in need of milk (any, as long as it is clean) over there;)
Nice to see the share price continue upward on the ASX. Tomorrow looks like another bright start to the day. Of course I could be singing a different tune tomorrow night. I am still happy and holding
Hi guys,
I've been following this thread (along with the others that are relevant to my portfolio) for a long time now but I don't post because I feel like an idiot, so please be nice. I'm interested in people's opinions on where ATM is headed in the short term, although I guess the definition of "short term" depends on your trading horizon but I need to pick an exit in the next little while. I am an investor with a modest holding of ATM, which because of its recent success makes up nearly half my portfolio. I got in early (53c) and got a few more at $2.10 so have done really nicely and would love to hold on tight and continue to ride it north, however I am building a house and want to knock as much off the mortgage as I can (I know in the long run I will make more out of ATM than I will pay in interest but really need to keep the mortgage small in order to service it). So long story short - I will be selling down my entire portfolio over the next six months, herein lies the question. Am I going to be better off holding on as long as I can and hope that on the day/week/month I need the money the price is better than it is today, or do I pick a good number (and I don't know what a good number looks like at the moment) and jump ship when that happens?
I understand the basics of how fundamental and technical analysis works and seem to be doing okay despite the fact I am not an expert in either and don't use either to their potential.
What are your thoughts?
Cheers,
Adam
seems to be tracking nicely from the breakout , see balamy result is out now for reading
mtge free house and then shares was always my thinking , now i borrow against the house to buy shares lol
Congrats on an excellent hold. My high-level approach would be to sell sooner, rather than later as you have a specific need for the money. It's been on a good run since the profit announcement and may continue as people re-rate the stock. There is also likely to be more passive fund buying as ATM enters a FTSE mid-cap index over the next month. At a more detail level, my TA says it should meet resistance around $14.00. Ideally, you run a Trailing Stop Loss so that you benefit from continued moves up (if any) but protect the downside. The challenge is setting the stop level so that you don't get stopped out on one of the wild intra-day swings we regularly see. It is always easier to sell in a rising market than a downdraft, so leave a few cents for the next guy. Another approach could be to aim to sell say 20% each month for next 5 months, with a stop-loss around each tranche. That way you will likely get a good average, no matter which way the market goes.
Same boat. I only started this year because the ASB started charging me for make extra mortgage payments so I though I'd stick my spare cash on the stock market. Next thing I was emptying the revolving credit account. So far this year I am up about 2 months pay (which sounds impressive except I don't get much pay!). So what began as cursing the bank turned into a why didn't they do that 2 years earlier!
Adam - I would work out how much you want and work backwards to the share price that will give you that exit strategy.
im no investment advisor , but my thinking for me was i had all this equity in the house which wasnt earning anything so as long as a wasnt silly in how much i borrowed at 5% (cheaper than a margin loan) and i invested in good div shares they would pay off my loan over time and i might make some growth as well. i started doing this in 2008 by the way i wouldnt do it now as the market has run a long way since then. i might do it again after the next crash though.
I agree entirely... I have built my portfolio over the last 10yrs and am not prepared to risk it with where I see global markets heading in the medium term. There will still be money to be made when this bull cycle turns bear but you will have to be a lot more careful than over the last few years, especially if you have bet the house on it. My 2C.
Who knows ? The world is a very uncertain place. Anything from China getting upset with Winston to a biological issue with our dairy herd could affect them.
If it was me....I would put in a sell price...say 12.99 ...and sit back and see what happens. If they didn't sell in say 3/4 weeks...I would ease it back a bit. Getting mortgage free / or under control is important, especially if interest rates start to go up. If they sold I would be very happy with myself even if they continue to increase a bit. You have done really well with them. Congratulations/
Once your mortgage is where you want it....you can always make another decision then with respect to investing in the market.
Well done.
Good luck.
RTM
My advice to my clients is you should aim to be mortgage free no later than 55. Getting too long in the tooth to take risks with one's home after that and that includes using one's home equity to borrow on other rental properties. With only 10-15 years to go till retirement one is best to avoid leverage altogether after 55 in my opinion. Obviously people don't pay off mortgages overnight so its best to have a goal of being debt free by 55 and work towards it.
Debt is a good tool to build wealth with in your 20's, 30's and 40's in my opinion but like all things, in moderation. (my 2 cents)
Oh. Borrowing to buy a fancy boat is not smart debt...take a word from the wise who has been there and done that in their 30's.
Depends on how much your borrowings are as a percentage of your total portfolio, mine are about 15 %. Borrowing at 5% or under is fine in the current market, by the time you claim the interest as an expense your still going to do well by placing the money in solid high divvy yielding companies.
Like Bull I wouldn't be worried about borrowing against the house as long as the cash flow of all the investments can be easily managed.My view is an investor learns most about investing by just doing it & I wouldn't be worried about the next crash.By investing in the here & now,you can learn the smarts to be better positioned with 'knowledge' for the next bull market.Is Buffet worried about the next crash?NO.Why?He invests in good companies and doesn't get concerned about the daily noise of share price movements.
Adam is asking about selling ATM though.. paying down a mortgage or investing is not the question.. he's already made that choice and now he has to move the invested money back to the mortgage. so anyone else got advice on how to sell ATM? picking a number you like doesn't seem that helpful - I could pick $150.. i love that number - but there's very little chance ATM gets there in the next 6 months, I think!
On the back strong reporting from Bellamy's across the ditch , I'm picking ATM could surge past $13 mark today if shorts are in a hurry to cover.
Dont worry about that. I am content taking that role - frees everyone else up to post and learn what ever they like
Following ATM is like being on a roller coaster. If you are a trader then money to be made short term. I'm not - I'm taking a long term view. That is five years. Happy with the ride . But I would be very nervous if I know I had to exit by a certain date. I'd sooner exit on my own terms.
I'd be inclined to keep riding the highs on the way up. Come up with a number off this high and that's when you sell. Be content with your gain but don't get greedy.
Long term I see ATM doing better than 5% per annum (or the prevailing mortgage interest rate. Especially when dividend kicks in. So the question is how best to utilise your capital
Alternative to reverse mortgage borrowing would just be getting a broker that offers margin lending or consider CFD derivatives. You can leverage up as much as 8 times with the cost of borrowing smaller than the mortgage rates probably..
If I was you Adam in your situation I would be selling a third of your holding now, wait a week and sell another third, if the price starts dropping then sell the rest.
Yes has to decide for himself.
How about picking a number based somewhere around a recent low - sell if it drops to that price before the funds are needed, if not sell when required.
I would follow in similar steps. Whether it goes up or down you need to be content with your profits.
Many times you hear “had I just waited”, or “damn I should have acted sooner”. I can tell you I never get it right when it comes to selling. It always does the opposite to what I want haha