I must admit, been waiting for this day for 30yrs. Always knew it would come again - same s#&t, different decade.
Last time I was out about 2 months prior to the crash, now just got to time this one right.
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If you look at the markets and in particular a rising stock such as RYM,knowing that it has risen so steeply and that the market is jumping on anything looking good,AND you gaze at charts,you will know that they always correct(except with the case of DIL and XRO)but they are special cases.You Never lose money taking a profit,so I would lock in those gains and be pretty chuffed,cos there is a darn good chance the market will correct. The Risk: that ryman have something up their sleeve that you don't know about.
Can I suggest Sparky that this is the same dilemma that folk like my self who have quite significant dosh tied up in res prop's are facing ..given that these as well as have/are increasingly gaining in value....
As we know those folk moving into Ryman facilities have to sell there houses first.......so for me at least I see RYM both as sharemarket beast but also a res property play cheers troy...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by NZSilverhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...post-right.pngSparky what did you do with SUM and what happened there?
That was a Rhetorical Question Sparky...
But great to see your honesty, I think RYM is a hold.
Sparks
- your homework says RYM is a solid long term 'hold', you and nobody else knows what it may be worth one day
- you and some others think it has got ahead of itself pricewise. It probably has been ahead of itself for sometime
- some (even you seem to agree) the market might fall quite a lot - if so when, we don't know
- you seem keen to protect the profits you have already made, or most of them
The adages let profits run / never try to time the market / and as Mr P said the market giveth but the market taketh away just as quick
For stocks that keep rising I have for a long time used a thing called Average True Range (ATR) as a sort of trailing loss'. Google it and see what it means as investapedia or something will explain it better than me
Essentially when a stock is consistently rising over so does the ATR. I use the ATR as the price to sell if the price starts falling. You can have tight 'stops' by using a ATR of 2 or loosen it up a bit by using a factor of 3 or 4. Nothing worse than selling and seeing the price go up again eh. To me a tried and true method that suits me. Like I I like holding stocks for years if they keep rising but I am ready to sell if indicators look like its going to down.. You'll never sell at the top but collect most of the gains.
Here is a chart of RYM with the ATR at 4 (4 times Average True Range) shown. You can see it works well for RYM and would have kept you in for the last few years (my data was a bit wonky prior to 2011 so didn't go back any further). I confess that I don't sell the exact time it hits the ATR but wait a day or two - invariably the price seems to recover. Eventually you will leave a percent or 2 on the table but have made more than that in the times the price has recovered. Would have avoided selling in that recent slight dip.
On this chart the red line is at 5.51 after todays action. I wouldn't sell until it gets back to that price (or higher if the ATR goes up). I don't have any RYM so don't need to decide but sure you will do the right thing
mmm..appreciate the post....how much do you attribute the health of the residential housing market to the SP of RYM....thus far I can only assume that it aint much...cheers...