Well that’s nice to read, Mav. I bought some more yesterday to add to my ever growing pile. Thought $1.52 was reasonable buying
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Well that’s nice to read, Mav. I bought some more yesterday to add to my ever growing pile. Thought $1.52 was reasonable buying
Thanks Mav.. I've just had a wee look on Trade Me. It's certainly all go at Eden. I'm figuring, there's not a.lot of time for sales this half, unless pre sales as you have pointed out, but it certainly looks another classy piece of work. Very impressive. Cheers for heads up.
On another note, I've just taken my very elderly mother in law supermarket shopping. Holy heck, what a wake up call for me. It's normally me zipping around the isles getting the job done. When on the other foot, anyone moving faster than a snail seems reckless and hellbent on running my mother in law over. Just walking the length of an isle was mission. It's got me thinking how elderly really can struggle in a fast moving world and how great OCA and other operators are at providing a safe havens for them. I see why they don't care about fee structures and all that. They just want to feel safe. Anyway, OCA and others doing a great service I reckon. As I said, a real wake up for me.
Weird share price movement today. To me it looks like 2 maybe 3 holders sold a decent parcel which removed price support then a bunch of people have decided they better sell quick and applying downwards pressure. Strange behaviour as no new information. I'm tempted to top up. Any thoughts out there?
Maybe Earl and Stockton selling more shares...
Pick up a few at $1.47 couldn’t resist , be all right long term.
There's nothing I can see that's unusual in the trading data today, no big crossings off-market or any very large on-market trades, just steady downdraft all day and a 2 cent dump into the close.
Volume overall was also modest. There's an increasing number of very small / low value trades each day.
Bit unusual to see chart gaps on OCA, especially on no news (that I'm aware of), last down gap on open was the cap raise announce at $1.30 when the SP was about $1.39 at the time.
So no clues that I can see, maybe some got triggered by the fall through 50EMA and then again through the 100EMA. Interesting it landed perfectly on the 61.8% Fib retrace.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+27+Sep+2021
AIR up 3.5% and OCA down about the same. Very strange times. Delta blues sending people a bit loopy ?
My day is best summed up with this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d1_mBBmOZg
Interesting article I just read, which supports my predictions re a future dementia crisis.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...r-year--report
Providers need to start planning for this now. I also think they need to re-think current models of care for dementia. This would be my dream model. I would love to see OCA take the lead with something like this.
https://thehawthorndale.co.nz/
Having tried to get my Dad, suffering from dementia, into a care home in the UK a few years ago, I wish I could have found something like that justakiwi
Can only think this sell off is as a result of the threat of increasing interest rates. And if course the future hyperinflation and collapse of the money supply. OCA as I see it is well placed to weather most financial future adjustments. After all they have just raised over a 100mill at 3%, and last I heard people are not going to stop getting older. Hyperinflation will only benefit residential villages as soon they wont be able to build anymore at todays prices.(even though we all think they are currently exorbitant) I believe many older people will preempt selling their properties and moving into residential care while residential property is at a high. So who is selling, perhaps margin traders, borrowers who financed their share purchases, small holders, panickers, etc. When do we start buying? If it gets below $1.40 I am all in, even though I am so overweight in OCA.
In a market where its getting harder to find undervalued stocks, OCA looks like a winner to me.
Not complaining about the current SP, provides an opportunity for a top up.
I am wondering if some investors have been spooked by The Retirement Village Residents Ass. Claim that The Retirement Companies run a quasi-Ponzi schem (with respect to ORAs). For some, they may see that as adding an element of political risk if Labour take up the lance to try to supposedly act as a warrior for fairness. Adding in the current hyper-inflated state of residential property values may be enough for some to be cautious.
Oceania has definitely passed a great point. Witnessing at a few villages. The hastings branch has sold all of their new villas with half moving in now and the others due for completion soon. Refurbished units have all sold and for the first time they have a waiting list. The next two results are going to be a great sign of whats to come.
Currently I think the share price is undervalued and I see it at around $1.75. By November next year I'd like to see it around $2.40. But I think I'm bring Conservative. 😊
Must be due an update on Acquisition and Land Bank add. Tons of cash in the bank earning sweet FA.
Many of our settlements at work have been delayed purely due to lockdown. Everyone wants to get these deals done but hard to satisfy some of the conditions.
Here’s hoping it’s as simple as that if there are any delays.
yeah I’m waiting for what they are buying as well, I’ve been buying while the share price action is ho-hum; I’m overweight on a big fat position - but as a long term holder 5+ years; I can’t see this share letting me down.
And this morning gives another 165k reasons property is going to continue heading north.
I just have to share this again - my morbid fascination with numbers, trends and weird relativities continues - some say bring in the man in the white coat to see what's wrong me with
Another month and again SUM share price outperforms the OCA share price.... to the point where never before (since OCA listed) as the OCA share price as a % of SUM share price been so low
Market must have some reasons why I loves SUM heaps more than OCA
Logically the line can't continue forever - ie until OCA goes to zero.
I have both SUM and OCA - heaps more SUM than OCA. Apparently this OCA is past the point of inflection, has a great business model, is on the verge of greatness and is very cheap. I sort of believe that and plan to move some SUM to OCA but while this trend continues why bother.
So in some respects the chart is some form of crude combined FA / TA analysis which might signal when I should start reweighting holdings in this sector. Cool eh
OCA done OK since listing - up 78% or 14%pa but SUM up 192% or 27% in same time
I agree winner69. OCA shows a lot of promise but at the end of the day it is a smaller business than market leader RYM followed by SUM. The premium is justified in my opinion for both of these companies with SUM edging ahead based on growth and premiums achieved in last few years. I have been a long term invester in all 3. OCA has a high proportion of aged care which is less profitable but also gives diversified incomes streams.
Hey W69. Love your work. Very generous to share your data with the plebs.
By chance have you measured how much is just market re-rate? SUM just trading on better and better multiples.. And OCA trading on less maybe?
Don't suppose you have OCA NTA as a % of SUM NTA over the years?
And OCA keeps getting cheaper…….. maybe wait a bit longer and people can buy at $1.40
Looks like 2021 is the year the OCA ship starts to turn around? OCA NTA as a % of SUM nta starts to increase in 2021, previous 4 years it decreased.
Maybe this inflection point talk is true? If FY22 NTA grows quicker again then maybe OCA will be on its journey to 2x nta valuation like SUM
OCA is ready for its next run. I'm expecting a 20% slow gain before a small retracment of 5 to 10%. Signs everywhere this company is past the point now. Just outside forces slowing down the move.
Interesting article in NBR
https://nbr.us18.list-manage.com/tra...c&e=ed8d49c762
Paywalled but one paragraph in particular struck me
This is Andrew Barclay Head of Goldman Sach - advisers to EQT talking
“A lot of people would have looked at [Metlifecare] and said, ‘Oh, well, that was obvious to anyone’, but actually putting strategies together for how you buy the first thing, and what's the second thing you buy, and the third thing, it all takes a lot of time and a lot of thought.”
$2.50 and they can have all mine...but Maverick may hold out for $3.
Where is it going to be in 10 years with the much talked about shortage in retirement facilities?
Mr B "6"
well., diversify and hold for the long term then.
Recently we sold AUS tourism only to have to buy back in 2 weeks ago as AUS market ignored delta...
And there is the lesson..The market is going to look through the virus as new modified vaccines and treatments arrive over the next 5 years.
NZ failed to do an expensive Dubrovnik and now it plan your own defense.
These retirement villages are sitting ducks until vaccines kill off transmission which they currently dont do 100 percent.
Somebody is selling, but from experience, I know that alternatives to retirement villages and in particular, high care units, are few and far between. Kids lead too busy lives, and the houses they own are far too inadequate to house an elderly dependent relative. And even if they could, the care required for an aging increasingly health concerned relatives is far too onerous to consider. We may get some fluctuations in the SP, in the short term, but when it does go up it will be fast. Let us not forget they have locked in a relatively low interest loan, for a considerable period, to enable them to operate in a higher interest rate environment. Not sure how low they will go, but has to be a good long term holding.
Yes...there is real risk in this sector...I am pleased to have halved my exposure a few months ago. But still hold a decent sized holding in SUM and OCA. The risks as I see it:
a) Covid 19. With the best will in the world...it will get into some of the villages.
b) Real Estate Prices....which could be impacted by a)
c) Regulatory Exposure....esp if Lab get a third term.
Probably others. Happy holder with reduced exposure and a nice profit reinvested elsewhere.
"houses they own are far too inadequate to house an elderly dependent relative."
yes and holding SUM of this sector is a good idea.
Its plan your own defence now..
The mood from an national editor in an email this morning said it all...they had realised the game was up..would have cost billions to keep it out and that would have needed to be invested last may 2021.
Europe will be open next July August in a big way if delta hasnt morphed again.
It may, but residents are significantly better protected from covid, than they would be living out in the community. Aged care providers take huge precautions, even when national levels are reduced. We are at Level 2 here in the South Island, but our rest home is operating somewhere between Level 2 and 3. Staff and visitors must wear masks at all times. Visitors are by appointment only, must sign in, use hand sanitiser, and can only visit in the resident's room. All but three of our residents are fully vaccinated. Any resident with cold symptoms is isolated to the room and must have a negative covid test before coming out. Staff with cold symptoms must stay home until they have had a negative test.
If I were an elderly person right now, I would feel far safer living in an OCA facility than in my own home or living with family.
Sheesh OCA taking a hammering. I've been buying the dip as they say you should do.. however the dip keeps dipping!
Looking at the OCA chart ASB provides. Blue SP line looks to have dropped below Red 180MA line. My understanding is thats not good.
Jeez - SP is still above MA200 and appears to even bounce back upwards. But of course it will (as any other stock) keep jittering with whatever the international markets do.
MA180 means little to most people, but whatever indicator you choose - you need to give markets a second (or minute, or hour, or day) to sort themselves out before you get jittery. They call this "confirmation of indicator". If you don't it is just the broker who makes the money ... same as in the casino - the bank wins always :);
No need to get excited - yet.
Still better - just imagine the SP in 10 years from now, smile and go for a walk ...
Monday 04 October, 2021
Dear residents and family members,
One more week at Level 2 over and done with.
Let’s keep doing what we’ve been doing to support our friends in Auckland and the Waikato.
Thanks to everyone for following the rules, wearing those masks and keeping your distance – your hard work is paying off.
This week we’ve got some more great speakers lined up for you, with art, exercise and ancestry on the agenda.
Importantly, and in response to the ongoing presence of Delta in the community, we have made a change to visitation arrangements for our residents who are in care.
Please see the details below and contact your Village Manager if you have any questions or concerns.
Arrangements for non-vaccinated visitors to our care residents
At Alert Level 2, we have re-opened our village care centres for visit, but you would have noticed some extra precautionary measures.
As each week passes with the Delta variant in the community, we continue to actively look for ways to ensure we are keeping our residents safe. With this in mind, and out of an abundance of caution, we are now requiring anyone who is unvaccinated who wishes to visit their loved ones in our care centres to contact the Village Manager so a suitable COVID-safe visit can be arranged.
This will include:
- The visit occurring in a dedicated and separate space outside of the care centre
- Our team providing full PPE for the visitor to wear
- Shortened visits only, and
- Our team cleaning the visiting area between visits.
We also respectfully request that people do not bring in under 12s to the care centre until we start to see the number of vaccinations in the general population increase.
If you are visiting a resident in palliative care, we will work with you to allow this to happen. Once again, please talk to the Village Manager.
Please be aware that you may be asked for evidence of vaccination when making your entry declaration.
This is a high risk time for us while we wait for better vaccination rates in the community but we want to assure you that we will make every effort to provide a COVID-safe visit while we continue to look for ways to keep our residents safe.
Otherwise, for anyone who is vaccinated who wishes to visit a resident in care, the process remains unchanged. This includes having a temperature check and wearing a mask, with visits limited to two people at a time.
Visitors to our serviced apartment residents are also required to check in, have a temperature check and wear a mask.
This is because our serviced apartments are positioned close to our care centres and many serviced apartment residents receive care services from our team.
Rymans new COVID update / New requirements for non-vaccinated visitors.
Fortunately I stopped being a contractor to RYM homes a few yrs ago, another private home rung me up this morning asking when I was coming as I haven't been for 3 months, I asked what their requirements were and the unit manager said to see each resident in their in own room and handwashing after each one, I said that's standard practice anyway so see you tomorrow. Lol
Predicting some things about the future, (your signature line) are actually quite easy and almost a dead certainty.
1. The share price in 10 years will be dramatically higher than it is today.
2. The share price will bounce around a bit and be up and down on a daily basis and it is best not to worry about this
3. The sun will come up tomorrow
4. If the Beagle doesn't have regular walks he will be more stressed and much unhealthier and fatter and a fat and unfit dog is not a happy dog ;)
And I really hope that all works out JustaKiwi. But I also look at our current outbreak, I guess it came from our MIQ facilities (still not identified ? Can't recall ) These facilities supposedly well managed. And of course then we have people and compliance and becoming to familiar with all the rules after working with them for a while....well...I am not at all confident the industry will be able to avoid it..even with great controls and people. Happy with my 50% sized holding. Good luck,
"PPE which is unnecessary"
a science degree friend and health practitioner thought that ...
caught a plane to Thailand, feudal kingdom.... never returned and is still waiting.. his practise closed...
I thought at the time "dont board that plane" but as a health professional and he thought he knew best and i thought he was rolling the dice.
A dutch sport doctor while in rotterdam, said to me "boarders could close" and "its a flue we dont know much about"
I thought hang on, "little flue" , "borders could close" and it was then something in the back of my mind went "get out", walk dont run...
Overkill? id say patients will still be a little nervous.
Mkt has been severe on OCA. ARV still holding at $2.13. A .69c difference between the two stocks. Only . 20c used to seperate them not that long ago. OCA cheap. Been waiting for the OCA surge to $2 but the reverse is happening.
9 months into 2021 and its not doing too well as an inflation hedge. Inflation at decade high of 3.3% per annum and OCA closed today at $1.44, 1 cent lower than it started the year at $1.45. Thankfully a small dividend was paid so in dividend adjusted terms it might just about be keeping pace with inflation. Rating C- and comment from the Dog. Must try harder.
I guess we get to see the report card next month. After wading through endless self congratulatory rhetoric about how they managed to keep Covid out of their facilities and all residents and staff were well looked after...one wonders what the numbers will look like. Maybe 2021 is not to be OCA's year ?...time will tell.
Im accumulating. Anything in the 1.4's is a steal long term.
This is one of my favourites in my portfolio but its actually behind every other stock that i hold. Ive got a TD coming up next month and if this is still in the 1.40's or even 1.30's im going to get a bigger position.
Accumulating, been a while! Love this company
only go over weight if you have information that is factual and supports your convictions.
Chart looks a buy with support levels at 1.30-35.
Sometimes the glorious share market in all its wisdom offers up a gift. Happened not so long ago on EBO dropping to $30 before pushing to $35 real quick. It was discussed as a gift then. Easy 15% gain for those that bought.
I believe OCA is a gift now and easy 15% short term gain on the table.
Back on board been a few years away, have always loved OCA's value proposition.
I bought a few more today.
"Are you people deliberately trying to upset me?"
if your not overweight in the sector it might be worth buying a few more.
Some people think its a bargain right here.
1.30 might be hard to get as they garden borrows will line up along with dump trucks and have to be quick.
Put some orders in now just in case something silly happens in the markets like US fails to lift debt ceiling.
When is its Results date ? No such info on NZX website ... Must be in Oct end or Nov ?
Doggy's keen for lots more right on NTA. The fact is there are VERY few real value opportunities on the NZX so we NEED something to really get our teeth into !
You know the tune winner(n)
Its NPAT , NPAT ,NPAT ..
"MET mk 2"
the number of times stock sell off before hitting its numbers or a market moving event occurs and a perfectly rational decision was made to sell.
Something is making the horses nervous.
Coming up to half year reporting date next month...maybe the company can't find any new greenfield opportunities and just buys its own shares back and mops up some of the keen sellers ?