If omnicron is found to have low symptoms could be good for markets.
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If omnicron is found to have low symptoms could be good for markets.
looks like the mini meltdown is back :scared: anyway the volatility continues
here's bloomberg things to watch in 2022. im sure there be plenty other things pop up as well next year not listed in there take
What Could Possibly Go Wrong? These Are the Biggest Economic Risks for 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...conomy-in-2022
....and as at today this reasonably tight trading range (4600 - 4750) is STILL in play. The 4600 level especially is still being respected by the market, with the market bouncing off it today, yet again - making an intraday low.
FED talk tomorrow could be direction setting??
4500 key level im watching.
another interesting thing at the moment is insider selling
SEC Chair Gary Gensler wants stronger insider trading rules as executive stock sales hit records
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/sec-...-in-stock.html
another important consideration for todays fed meeting
Wholesale prices measure rose 9.6% in November from a year ago, the fastest pace on record
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/whol...on-record.html
:scared: might want to buy everything you want now before price rises on everything go up big next yr
Is that sleigh bells I can hear? Is Santa coming?
Hopefully he'll make it to the NZX50...no MIQ for the S&P 500 so it's easier to get to
markets being rational now ? nasdaq getting hammered i dont understand they only go up
forgot to mention did anyone notice the rotation last 2-3 weeks into utilities wow somethings up ? not the nz market utilities the us utilities
Santa being waved off, disappointing. Oil still heading up so a silver lining.
I look at using interest rates to control inflation like a mobius strip. Once you get around enough, you are back where you started. When everyone starts to increase interest rates, inflation will get worse. Inflation is like a room full of mousetraps, once the start to go off, its so difficult to slow it down. I can see as interest rates start to rise, prices and wages will rise even more to offset the increase. Only a very large and fast increase in interest rates will start to control inflation. Then we will know it as house prices come back, and the economy will be stagnant. I saw it way back around the middle 80s with Rogernomics. It was a most unpalatable move for everyone. Cant see any government acting that responsibly anytime soon. Just my opinion. I am probably a lone voice in the wilderness with this one.
some might argue the US is behind the curve :scared: as far as raising rates goes.
tricky situation for all for sure
rising inflation and to combat it we need to slow growth and money printing
ominicron just going to make supply chains worse and maybe inflation get worse ahh
what they gonna do and what the markets going to do :scared: 2022 the yr of big swings ?
Absolutely big swings lol
Turkeys financial system collapsed
Countries losing faith in the US dollar as the reserve currency
US to stop stimulus soon, interest rates rising, OMI set to spread, hospitals overwhelmed, more lockdown's.
Germany, Brazil set for negative GDP.
A substantial amount of record-high debts so on so forth
Largest Hedge Fund holder Ray Dalio, fires warning shots
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mar...ot-11639578847
Oh dear, futures are red.
In saying that they're so unpredictable they will probably turn green later on.
USD is surging. So much for the demise of the dollar. King 👑 Dollar still reigns in times of trouble lol
Poop or pop
looks like a pop
anyway next days to end of mth is historically the most bullish period for wall st. lets see if history repeats.
I should add on a small sample historically when you have a very volatile december on this small sample january has been positive so again lets see and remain nimble.
I still see a volatile yr 2022 as my pick overall
A few more days to go.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/23/sant...eek-ahead.html
This has been a fun thread. Lets hope the other markets start pulling their weight in the months ahead. Happy New Year to you all.
jan another volatile mth again so far.
whats that saying
dont fight the fed
NOTHING to see here folks - all is NORMAL - move along .....
brought to you by a large scale asset purchase programme from a reserve bank near you.Quote:
Hannibal is at the gate, ya'll, when these wind up. Use your eye to the line of best fit to see where international interest rates will be. Real estate, long dated tech, RV, and a lot of retail will be punished in due course.
It highlights how extreme monetary policy is but will central banks be able to change course? Destroying the value of money might be easier than letting house prices fall. Everyone I talk to seems happy or oblivious to it. A dollar might be worth 10% less by the end of the year but who would know? A 10% fall in house prices would be front page news.
fed well behind the curve expecting the unexpected this yr
The NZD took a monster dump and oil exploded "to the upside" (it went up, lol).
Black Monday for 99.2 per cent of all vehicle owners and 100 per cent of all consumers.
Hmm...the governmedia is strangely silent about the highest fuel prices this country has ever seen. Its much higher than in 2018 when the governmedia was very keen to make all sorts of announcements...and accusations.
No, no. The last thing we need from this governmedia is another market intervention which seems to always end up making things worse. The new responsible lending laws for example, have caused real issues for so many people.
However, if fuel prices keep rising, the Governmedia is going to have to blame someone else so will again initiate a series of announcements and reviews to find the guilty party. Anything to take attention away from the monster taxes that nztx mentions above (good point nztx) and things like the oil and gas exploration ban. Now of course I realize that NZ has no control over oil prices but less than two years ago the Governmedia took ownership of fuel prices and introduced measures it said would create greater competition in the fuel market and reduce the price of fuel - up to 30 cents a litre in some cases (lol). So they can't really throw their hands up now and say "it's nothing to do with us!".
In terms of Black Monday, I'm guessing (what would I know so this is just a guess) that out of control energy prices and inflation in general will be kind of a big deal over the next few years and dominate every aspect of politics and be the major factor in investment returns.
Is this the new "beat up the government" thread mixed with conspiracy theories?
Isn't it interesting that right wing political losers always tend to finger-point to the media instead of acknowledging that it just was their fault that they didn't manage to set up a convincing alternative last election time.
This is a democracy, work harder and provide a viable alternative and positive constructive opposition instead of just blaming others for the weaknesses of your ilk.
@Maclir You may have already seen this by now. This article sets out just how high petrol has got and yes, even accounting for inflation, we are at an historical high for petrol
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...storical-highs
Brent has just ticked over to the highest price since 2014. Exciting times for sure.
And on top of all that, US futures are down big.
Where's the demand for all this petrol?
Break up the cartel...
No no .. Taxing them out of existence with every non descript duty, levy and other add-on in the name
of paying some other unconnected dreamed up excuse should do the trick .. have to follow the official
line, don't we ? ;)
Don't worry about looking at who pays the inflated trumped cost at the end of the line .. that doesn't matter one ioata either ;)
Has an Auckland Cycleways levy been added & attached yet or does that come out Auckland's chop of the regional action passed on ? :)
It's almost as if these same issues are happening in America too or something.
I was meaning the middle-east/russia cartel (maybe a tax on dictators would be good).
With NZR abandoning NZ for Fuel Refining onshore here, surely the Cartels are all gone from our shores ? ;)
If they haven't, then why have Fafoi & mates not already woken up and dealt to them ? :)
Wonder how they will fare dealing to Offshore based Wholesale Supplier Cartels ? :)
Too hard, Didn't See It, or didn't want to know ? :)
Perhaps a new Cartel Import Tax may fix the job to pull them into a Govt prescribed straight line? ;)
Guess who will be paying that on top too, if it ever happened ? :)
I wonder what this could be over, hmmm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv08kNB_9S8
energy the best sector to be in so far this yr
$100 oil they saying whats that about $3 + at the pump in NZ , jeez unheard off i have to park the boat in storage at those prices
another red day again in NZ ? starting the year off as last yr finished as a poor performing market. at least so far this yr we are in good company with most markets in the red this yr.
whats that saying
so goes jan so goes the yr
I expect a very challenging year for typical broad based buy and hold strategies. Don't fight increasing rates. Definitely pockets of value in select stocks however, so there is money to be made. So the sky certainly isn't falling, but good stock pickers will be the winners.
Been my thought since MAY last year I've been shifting away from the PM Gold Sector to energy metals - U308, Lithium , Ni , Copper ... and for the first time in many Years Loading up in O&G companies .. IMHO these resources will continue to perform as other like TECH, banking fall
IDNA which has a PE ratio below the slug DJI is taking a hammering for some reason.
I may as well take on more, idk.
Good for you JB. I was piling into oil in August/September 2020. That's sounds great but I completely mistimed my entry (naturally!) and was down 20 per cent at one point. If you check out the charts of XLE/VDE/IXC in that period, there was a big whoosh down and then the vaccines came along. It's sunny uplands now of course.
A lot of NZ funds are proudly ESG and have near ZERO exposure to energy, the best performing sector last year and this year to date. As long as energy is working, market down turns will be particularly hard for these funds. And if we have a 10 year commodity super cycle, then it's even worse for them. Of course the oil price could collapse tomorrow so this is far from a one way bet.
There was a good commentator on World Wide Exchange last night who said we really don't want oil much higher than it is now. $100 oil will bring too much drilling.
some of the best returns have been from oil , coal , uranium etc dirty energy.
last night energy up us only sector , today asx energy up preety much only sector , oil futures painting another high as we speak heading to 100 this yr maybe even this half ? on the plus
the higher they go the better alternative green look eh
The higher oil goes the more serious we will get going green rather than all this greenwashing,so go high oil( am holding a few energy stocks ATM)
An electric bicycle ?
Maybe art and coins are something which can protect from inflation.
search ancient roman or greek coins on ebay.
*Needs to be legitimate ones though.
Many of the bad roads are where there are no railways so in many instances using railways is no alternative. Some years back when dealing with NZ Rail re bulk freight they were very unforthcoming in wanting us to pay for rail wagons and pay for sidings. It was far cheaper and more convenient to use road transport even though we would have been happy to use rail if it stacked up and we did so elsewhere. Lack of state highway maintenance especially bridging has been a disgrace in recent years! There are bridges that should and would have been replaced years ago that keep being deferred by the current administration.
Well then don't say that there's not an alternative or that petrol is some kind of "necessity".
Electric scooters are another one with decent range.
I do our weekly shop by bike, quite straightforward to fit everything in a couple of pannier bags and maybe a bungee cord for bulky items. Cheaper, bit of fresh air and exercise, and no stress parking the car. It's a huge waste of energy taking a car with you just to pick up a couple of bags of food.
bike riding be very popular soon following the petrol price at $4 a litre. is that after russia invades or the houthis blow up every pipeline in saudi.
anyway the nzx is wanting to be the leader again as the worst market in the world :scared: currently only being beaten by rut and nasdaq
That link here the other day. Increased fuel prices by $1 and the US consumption falls enough to make the world carbon neutral. So that isn't going to happen.
Well this is the problem ... how slow and hard is it to build a house in NZ at present(this is not just a NZ problem) ....or Buy a new car (we have been waiting for 8months for new "Kia Sorento")
Even though we are living through a so called "Great Pandemic" the earth gains more than 1mill humans per week .... add in the amounts of dirty poor rural folks coming into cities in the likes of CHINA -India ,African nations etc ... they all want to have what the Yanks have.. Cars ...
I heard on CNBC from an expert energy analyst ...that they see higher daily oil demands next year than pre-COVID !!!
Also add in the picture we have heads of Energy exporter nations stating a dire need of continue investment of $500bill per year just to keep pre-covid production demands meet ...
But as we have seen from may head of nations ...the talk of no need to invest in dirty fossil fuels ..are own knobs in power ...call for the stopping of O&G exploration in NZ etc ...
Expensive fuel prevents all from owning fossil fuel cars, problem solved right JB? Let them cycle, I heard there is an oversupply of ride share bikes in China so they shouldn't have any problems. Of greater concern is the social unrest closer to home that a spike in fuel prices could have. 91 is up at least 50 cents in the last few years, the French have rioted for less...
after being up big US markets now all in the red , usually not a good sign. 4500 big support if / when it goes could get ugly.
by the way russell has broken down from its 6 mth old consolidation. not good sign
The answer is very poor.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles...-not-to-invest
This sell off feels nasty. I'm pretty much fully invested so have to take my lumps in this round. Yes, I could sell my small allocation of bonds to reinvest but I'm not doing that unless we see a 20 per cent drop or more in the major indexes. Looking at a 5 year chart of the S&P 500, this recent action hardly registers.
Jeremy Grantham Doubles Down on Crash Call, Says Selloff Has Started
He says 50% crash
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ff-has-started
Cool, thanks. Definitely keeping what little dry powder I have dry.
China's already been hit hard with Xi's common prosperity edict.
Their stocks didn't fall much after corona but did after GFC.
Chile, turkey ETFs also beaten down.
if you believe biden he reckons putin going to invade ukraine .
oil shock anyone as russia second biggest oil exporter
Oil prices have already shot up to seven-year highs in recent days. A conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which the White House has warned could be imminent, would have the potential to drive them much higher.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/b...tin/index.html
They have a small window of a few weeks due to the weather.
https://www.wionews.com/world/biden-...-report-444048
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...isers-say.html
The modern battle of Agincourt .
Cashed in re 10% of my shares this week,taking profits and building more cash as a precaution ,less risk for me now and some great lower entry opps later hopefully.
That's a big call. Did you buy today?
It's kinda sad thou. There was a post on a FB group yesterday with one person asking what to do now that their kiwisaver is down 40% because of this high risk ark bs. Clearly didnt know what he was investing in, likely followed some dumb post on FB back when people were posting about mega returns during arks glory days. Others post screenshots of their kiwisavers down 40% as well, in some sick form of solidarity. Then all the fan boys come out and say hold, buy more, just a dip, long term view etc. No actual fundamentals stated, just throwaway lines. One person said $80k down in actual dollars, his profile pic suggested he was late 30's. sad! Kiwisaver is supposed to plod along and compound at 8% every year for decades. Double digit returns some years for a bonus.
If I was to, I would only put a small amount of my own managed portfolio (2%) into an ark fund. But would never ever put my nest egg kiwisaver fund into it, let alone 100% of it!!
I am getting very excited looking forward to "PYOTBD" Percy's year of the big dividends.
Kicks off with SEK's 13cps fully imputed on the 23rd of Feb.Bought more SEK on Thursday.
I expect increased dividends from HGH and SFF [Silver Fern Farms] .
Steady dividends from GNE and SPK.
Perhaps modest divies from DGC and STU.
And a few good divies from a number of Aussie small caps I hold.ACF,ADA,JYC,PTB,SEQ,SHM,and XRf.
Excellent. Jeremy Siegel definitely thinks dividend payers are the place to be during these troubled, high inflationary, times.
@Rawz. I can't take my eye off Ark. I agree that's it's fine to have an allocation of high risk money in a portfolio upwards of 5 per cent max in my case but ones whole kiwisaver fund? The AARK etf has certainly "disrupted" people's retirement accounts over the last year. To be honest if the people are mostly in their 20s and early 30s it will be a great financial lesson and they'll have plenty of time to right the ship.
Sure we don’t know yet, if the current sell-off has reached its nadir. Those whose balances are down by 40%, by how much were they up the previous couple of years?
After the 2020 share sell-off there was a spike in KiwiSaver transfers from high risk to conservative funds. Those switchers effectively locked in their losses prior to the share price recoveries. However hindsight is 20:20 vision.
I am not sure if KiwiSaver is “supposed” to have returns as you suggest. Nothing is guaranteed, and schemes state that annual returns can go down as well as up. I guess over the long run returns average out but individual years can have returns that vary considerably especially for the funds that involve a higher risk. Most schemes have different funds available according to risk tolerance. If you had KiwiSaver from its beginning, you would be aware that annual returns can be negative, especially if you had units in a fund that was not conservative. Granted you would probably need to be mid 30’s or older to have personal experience of that.
Omicron: NZ moves to red light tonight
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...3I5RPGAI4IFOA/
Quote:
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has confirmed New Zealand will move to the red traffic light setting at midnight tonight.
Nine Covid cases in Motueka are confirmed to have the Omicron variant, prompting the decision, Ardern said.
They attended a wedding in Auckland on January 13 along with a funeral, an amusement park and the Sky Tower in the following days. These events had well over 100 people.
Omicron is now circulating in Auckland and possibly the Nelson area, if not further, Ardern said.
could be an interesting week - as it spreads in both islands now
should be another wild week , buckle up