Some nut just bought about 930,000 shares post close.........
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Some nut just bought about 930,000 shares post close.........
Oh absolutely and totally without a doubt, it was actually a 2,860,947 share buy that went through after the close, someone clearly wanted to lock it in before the weekend, should be interesting to see what next week brings.
I think Physic was responding to Seeweed and Black Knat's wee scientific debate.
I would only point out that when it comes to science there is a very fine line between genius and insanity, perhaps crazy not to give something good a try, perhaps a genius for doing so.
NT001, why would someone like Nestle not takeover ATM completely for the IP and then use their power to promote and distribute a2 milk but at a mainstream level giving them a seriously good point if difference over say Danube. It actually doesn't take long at all to test/build an a2 herd so would be a smart move. And why not spend $30m driving the price down to get the whole company $300m cheaper?
The other thing is there's still no SSH notices from a seller but also not from any BUYERS. Could someone be buying and selling to themselves to drive the price down for a takeover?
It's all possible, NBT, who knows? I certainly agree there may have been some circular trading to drive the price down. Your scenario does have some logic and we need to watch for it, although I've recently tended to doubt its viability and that's why I advanced my reasoning. Good to keep all these options under discussion though.
Actually it appears about 450k of those went through in trades 9-27 of normal afternoon trading at 55c, and the rest, about 2.4m, were picked up in 10 further trades at the same price after the close. What's going on? Someone selling to/buying from themselves as NBT suggests?
No, I think in the absence of any SSH notices it is just some selling pressure from punters holding long positions in XRO etc needing to cover margin calls.
There is a possibility that a group of smart arses working a jump or two ahead of the market seeing what is happening to the long covering, and using the borrow and buyback technique in anticipation of further selling pressure in the more illiquid stocks such as ATM where there are bigger bangs for the same buck on the downside. Here, only small amounts of shares sold a have a large impact on price. I still see that as a long shot though...highly speculative.
The only other possibility but less likely, is the take over possibility. Don't know if this is a good strategy either because I'm sure freedom foods, and other major shareholders would have to be looking at a price of $2.00+ therefore a little bit of manipulation to drive the price down in the short term would not make a single bit of difference to an offer price IMO.
FWIW I pulled the following trading totals in ATM from Yahoo.com for the six months April 17-Oct 17, correlating them with the fall in share price over that period.
April 17-30 (10 days) 13,774,100 shares SP fall 85c to 81c
May (22 days) 44,229,000 80c to 78c
June (21 days) 50,863,000 78c to 69c
July (23 days) 21,331,400 70c to 65c
August (21 days) 21,907,000 63c to 64c
September (22 days) 25,193,500 62c to 58c
October 1-17 (13 days) 8,686,800 59c to 55c
Six-month total 185,984,800 85c to 55c
Trades equivalent to 28% of the company’s 660,066,979 shares on issue have taken place in six months.
There were three days, in May-June, when trades exceeded 10m shares, and there have been three other days when they were approx 6m or above. The last really big trading day was 26 August (8.25m)
What does the correlation show NT?
Remember free float is 422 million shares so effectively 44% of shares churned in 6 months. Take into you and MAC haven't sold that's nearly an annualised 100% churn.
Remember also that one (if not 2) of those high volume days was Milford selling.
Don't all those numbers just suggest a long steady sell down over the last six months? Often this is a sign that price is just adjusting to fair value. Nothing more or nothing less than that and no conspiracy theories needed, just speculation drove the shareprice to unrealistically great heights and 55/60 cents really is a fair price.
In the absence of any profits how fair is 55 cents value? At $363m market cap ATM is at more than 6 times book value and trading at more than 3 times sales. Even if it had a NPAT margin of 16% it would e trading on a PE of 20. All seem to suggest current price more than 'fair'
I just waiting for maybe buying at a discount to this 'fair' price
Just picked up a bottle of A2 to try over the coming week as lactofree was out. Certainly not selling as fast as the Lewis Road stuff, but then again what is (do they put crack in it?)
Yes Winner, I think you and Harrie have probably got it right, between you. In posting those transaction totals I was not suggesting a conspiracy, just noting the facts which I agree support your interpretation. As I pointed out myself in post 2195, there was no obvious rational basis for the SP surging into the 90s, and in view of what's been happening elsewhere (XRO etc) an adjustment was hardly surprising.
Fair price? On your figures the SP is overpriced. MAC and I would say otherwise and he has TA to support his view, I've really only got a lot of faith in the company and its science assets. The market's a bit against ATM at the moment, and I still don't discount takeover of some kind, although for what purpose I can't quite see. Good time for long-term holders to accumulate, I'd say. Tomorrow could be interesting.
Yes Winner, I think you and Harrie have probably got it right, between you. In posting those transaction totals I was not suggesting a conspiracy, just noting the facts which I agree support your interpretation. As I pointed out myself in post 2195, there was no obvious rational basis for the SP surging into the 90s, and in view of what's been happening elsewhere (XRO etc) an adjustment was hardly surprising.
Fair price? On your figures the SP is overpriced. MAC and I would say otherwise and he has TA to support his view, I've really only got a lot of faith in the company and its science assets. The market's a bit against ATM at the moment, and I still don't discount takeover of some kind, although for what purpose I can't quite see. Good time for long-term holders to accumulate, I'd say. Tomorrow could be interesting.
I think you mean FA rather than TA NT001, I honestly couldn’t do what you do, invest on faith and science alone, the money wouldn’t leave the bank, I have to do the numbers, anally run the DCF and other models, even that’s not enough, there has to be good forward growth prospects, good management, market research and a focused strategic plan.
I’m happy to continue to hold ATM for several years or until the fundamentals alter, no sign of that at this time, I’ve topped up recently and am content with my spread, would be topping some more right now if I wasn’t already at my diversification limit. It’s a dip and opportunity from fair value that should never have occurred, and that’s no reason not to take advantage.
I agree with you W69, apart from trying to dispel conspiracy theory, technically it would appear that ATM is close to "fair value" based on the ratio analyses you have calculated. We have all done those calcs but as everyone knows todays fair value is tomorrows discounted price in some cases.
The question has to be around market growth potential and the belief that ATM can capitalise on opportunities and significantly increase its sales revenue. The market SP definitely moved on anticipation of growth expectations earlier this year. The market is telling us now that expectation of growth has been less than convincing to date, and that until it reads otherwise ATM will be discounted to around technical "fair value".
I accept MAC's DCF models but these are based on forecasts and forecasts are just that. Forecasts need to be justified by reality. Its all about the faith that this company can forfill its sales revenue targets. Its a bigger leap of faith to be buying in at 90c, but less of a leap at 55c.
I look at the science and the growing anecdotal evidence. I look at the growing market for milk powder and fresh milk in China, (goddam its $16 bil now and expected to grow to $30bil by 2017!) I see without any conclusive scientific evidence A2's share by sales revenue in Australia move to around 10%, I see the massive amount of leverage that can be gained by a diversification of product using A2, I see more discussion around downsides of A1 beta protein etc etc, then I look at the downside. Its still milk, there has been no scientific evidence that it has any detrimental effect, its the closest to mothers milk you can buy, so the worst that can happen is that it will trade at "fair value".
This would have to be the best "fair value" investment around...just keep accumulating.
Anybody have any idea what the cash (investing cash that is) is needed over the next 5 years to make this growth happen.
I note 2013 was $5.8m and 2014 was $7.5m ......what about the next few years?
Just anally updating DCF
Probably will need to reverse engineer growth rates and margins to get anyway near an EV of $660m ($1 a share) and then assess that with my current assumptions.
Yes MAC, I did mean FA, which is an abbreviation describing how much I know about it, as many on this thread will have realised by now. I was lucky to buy in when I had some spare cash and A2Corp was a penny dreadful that sounded like it was onto something interesting and beneficial. I get a lot of fun out of discussing where it may or may not be headed, and would be concerned about a takeover, but I have other things to do in life than worry about managing it technically as an investment. The way you do it sounds interesting.