Todays retail sales 1.8% ahead of the expected 0.8%, seems to have had an impact.
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Todays retail sales 1.8% ahead of the expected 0.8%, seems to have had an impact.
AUD crossrate hasnt change much tho...
Welcome BackOffice.:)
Technically 7008 had the possibility to
act as support with Fib50 @ 6990 just below
lending a hand.
1.0986 is a Gann resistance for AUD/NZD
arco
Monetary Policy Statement
no real surprises again - still have tightening bias, with an acknowledgement from our independent lever puller that, despite what the pollies are saying - that the tax cuts won't be inflationary - they will tighten again if fiscal loosening proves inflationary (IMO it will, especially if National's tax cuts are implemented)
Only curious forecast is the TWI track.....
If the TWI follows that downward trajectory, then you can be assured of a tighening in the OCR, IMOQuote:
quote: 2H05 1H06 2H06
90-Day Bill (Avg) 7.25% 7.25% 7.25%
NZD TWI (Avg) 69.50 66.25 63.25
CPI (Annual) 3.50% 4.00% 3.25%
This little gem may be the cause of the hesitation to simply hoover the Kiwi post announcement
What they seem to be implying is that NZD will underperform on general rallies of majors vs USD, and/or "outperform" on sell-offs
Xerof
Morning Chaps
Thanks for that insight Xerof.
Technically.
The figures I stated yesterday held support.
EOD. Nice strong white candle which may be
heralding the start of Wave 3 of Wave 3 if
my EW counting is correct.
arco
Arco, agreed.
An EOD close above 7090/95 would provide some comfort for a nice trendy wave 3 move towards Claxby Pluckacre:D:D
The rally from 0.6866 to 0.7123 was impulsive (5-wave), with the recent retracement to 7010 being corrective (3-wave), according to an EW mate of mine.
Stops on any longs should now be just below recent lows around 7010
Xerof
Morning Xerof
I'm not an EW purist but I believe W3 of W3
is supposed to be a strong one.
We shall see.
http://www.genuki.org.uk/big/eng/LIN/ClaxbyPluckacre/
arco
Hehe,
thanks for the geographic guidance.
Yes wave 3 should get us well over the equator, into Lincolnshire, and maybe a cleansing ale at the Marmion Arms in Haltham?
Xerof
Xerof
Ah, the Marmion Arms
http://www.thealetrail.co.uk/images/marmion.gif
Not too familiar with that particular pub,
(its near Horncastle),but I do know the Red Lion
at Revesby quite well. (It's just up the road from
Claxby Pluckacre where my grandfather once lived).
arco
Looks like NZDUSD may stay above 0.7 for a while.
- NZ$500 million Eurokiwi overnight 14/9/2005
- Talk in market of NZ$3.9 billion Uridashi on way next few days
- Cullen talking about higher OCR with tax cuts
Interesting article on Stuff
'Whopper' current account deficit set to inflate further
21 September 2005
By KATE PERRY
New Zealand posted the worst annual current account deficit ever in the June year, an amount equivalent to every New Zealander overspending by nearly $30,000.
The $11.89 billion annual deficit was the worst in dollar terms, Statistics New Zealand said today.
Economists estimate the deficit equates to 8 per cent of GDP – the second worst behind a 9.0 per cent deficit during the first oil shock in 1975.
The deficit, also known as the balance of payments and measuring all transactions with the outside world, will worsen as our petrol bill swells.
"It's a whopper," said Goldman Sachs JBWere economist Shamubeel Eaqub. "The very large and worrying deficit reflects the imbalances facing the New Zealand economy."
The June quarter deficit swelled to $2.85 billion, $1 billion higher than the March and June 2004 quarters.
The deficit has to be bridged by borrowing from overseas and economist warn foreign investors may be leery of lending when the deficit gets too big. When that happens, the New Zealand dollar is likely to plunge.
AdvertisementAdvertisementFirst NZ Capital economists expect the deficit to peak at 9 per cent of GDP next year, far exceeding Reserve Bank forecasts. RB governor Alan Bollard projected in his quarterly Monetary Policy Statement last week that the deficit would reach 7.25 per cent at the end of next year and stay there for a couple of years. Even at 7.25 per cent, Dr Bollard said the deficit would be unsustainable.
The strong domestic economy has fuelled the spending spree, with consumer demand for cheap imported goods on the rise along with a rising petrol bill.
Growth in imports outstripped exports leading to a deficit in the goods balance of $721 million.
The value of goods exported in the quarter was $7.86 billion, while the value of good imported was $8.58 billion.
Import prices were up 1.5 per cent between the March and June quarters, driven by petrol and petroleum prices, which rose 23.6 per cent.
The deficit on investment income was $2.6 billion, as the strong economy translated into improved corporate profits and higher dividends. This in turn led to a pick-up in dividend flows to offshore owners of New Zealand companies.
The widening deficit is expected to weigh on the New Zealand dollar in the medium term, but not have a big negative impact in the short term.
ASB economist Kate Skinner said it was likely to have an impact on the kiwi dollar at some point next year.
"Rather than being the initial catalyst, a widening current account deficit is likely to exacerbate the depreciation in the New Zealand dollar caused by either a strengthening US dollar and, or, a deteriorating growth outlook for New Zealand."
The currency market was focused on the US Federal Reserve's 11th rate rise. After the current account release the New Zealand dollar initially dipped to US69.65c from its US69.79c opening but later recovered.
International credit rating agency Standard & Poor's said it was unperturbed by the size of the deficit.
"From our point of view, it is a concern and a weakness in relation to the credit-worthiness of the Government, but it's not a huge weakness because there are sufficient mitigants," Fharad Jain a director of S&P's sovereign and public finance ratings unit, said.
He said half of New Zealand's foreign debt was denominated in New Zealand dollars and of the rest, about 90 per cent was hedged.
"Also, Government financials are in a strong position, so if a high current account were to result in a currency deterioration, and as a result, impact on the private sector or the banking sector, the Government has enough flexibility to support that. "Whilst it's a concern, we don't think it's an excessive risk that will affect the rating in the immediate future."
Mr Jain said the agency was also not unduly worried about a loosening fiscal position as a result of prom
kiwi quite shakey perhaps....
even martin@global-view commented and he has been mute for quite some time.
Peat, GCM's been about, but on the pay to view side of GVI.
Has been quiet there too really and today would be his most vocal for a long time.
NZD - everyone wants to sell it...but...plenty of demand still, despite:
election mess
Current account woes
'banana republic' quote from a local bank economist, trying for the 8% depreciation in a day that the AUD took when Keating used that phrase
so we wait for something to happen.
My best suggestion given its current state of torpidity is to trade the break...and don't get transfixed with which direction that might be
http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/589/nzd4uq.jpg
Xerof
Probably worth repeating the info here (from the Chit-Chat thread).
In the long term we have to remember NZD has come a long way from Oct 2000 when it reached a low of .3905. The recent high may be hinting at a triple top, and a fall from that on Fibonacci retracement values say of 50% would equate to a drop to circa .5700. That may tie in with the resistance area of 6/5/1999 - .5663
In the short term NZD looks vunerable if it breaks the major Gann at 6836 and it could then continue down on a Butterfly final leg to btw 6700-6800. (with minor Gann @ 6714)
arco
possibly, there's a few bits of data out this week that may catalyse such a move
This may give it a nudge down
Slam
"[22:47 NZD/USD: August Trade Balance A NZD1.105bln Deficit] Against a median
market forecast of NZD850mln. This continues the run of disappointing NZ data."
Morning Slam
Reuters EOD - Shwoing a nice touch on the Major Gann line 6836, and looks like it could break soon. Ideal low risk limit entry just below the pivot/Gann IMO.
arco
Hi arco
I jumped on about 2 mins before the above announcement so dropped stop to entry (6864)
Dumb luck[8D]
Cheers
Slam
Closed short
Looking for a bounce:), may not be a big one imo
Cheers
Slam
Back in again[:I]
Just in time for that nice red candle
Kiwi not getting much bounce these days.
See if I jumped the gun or not
Cheers
Slam
Edit Short AUD as well
Slam
I've got a limit short in a bit higher up @ 6823 (Plus one below the pivot if that one misses)
Good luck
arco
Took 10 pips and will try again[:I]
Didn't like the way the USD took a plundge against everything
Never mind
10 pips [:o)]
Slam
Short filled at 6823 on auto pilot - now lets see what happens
(18 fib at 6834)
Tight stop
Sitting on my hands at the moment
The USD is looking a bit week
Could end up with egg on face[B)]
Cheers
Slam
Major Gann at 6836....so if that holds as resistance technically it should be OK.
Tight stop
Cheers arco
my eyes are peeled;)
slam
ok well I'm short at .6828 on your heels arco
will use the .6836 + 10 as a stop point
We got the spike to 6837 - testing my calculated Gann as mentioned at 6836. So fingers crossed Major Gann will not let us down.
Good luck Peat
its starting to look a bit like Gann might be gone but as a measure of steel and a tribute to the volatility of our dear flightless one i will wait for 15 min candle to confirm break of that mark
today (in a more timely fashion than the previous post) from JyskeBank
Quote:
quote:lone olesen - Jyskebank
Another very
important signal of further dollar strengthening is lurking in the
wings as well. NZD/USD is according to our long model on the
verge of breaking several year's uptrend with dramatic slides to
follow on the commodity currency. Until that break
materializes we do though need to see a weekly close below
67.75. In that case NZD/USD will give another boost to a
general dollar strengthening probably leading to a similar
break of AUD/USD's longterm uptrend as well. AUD/USD
does, however, need to break below 73.90 on a weekly basis
before the golden days of AUD will be over for now. As far as
EUR/USD is concerned a definite break of the previous low at
118.70 will confirm my belief that the powerful C-corrective
wave is in force leading the dollar against the EUR to new highs
not seen for a very long time.
Thanks for that Jyske info Peat.
The Gann calc is basically a line drawn in the sand. Troops can venture over the line and retreat back. So whilst on a 15 min chart the line may look broken, on the EOD chart tomorrow it may appear as a spike through the line. I call these ventures 'scouting' parties.
I have noted a short term Bullish Butterfly that is in the wings but it did not look as if it was immediate. Time will tell with this one, but there will probably be a limited response.
arco
out at 6852
if i was stronger equity wise i might hold but that kind of looks a bit like a break out of the 36 area to me ... tho it may end up as merely a reconaissance
i have also re-discovered recently that sleep is quite beneficial as well. [:p]
good nite.
did i mention my lousy timing [B)]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by peat
out at 6852
ANZ now expecting Bollard to raise rates
Morning All
Peat - did ANZ say what the expected rise would be?
NZD. Well the troops are definately camped out on the wrong side of the line, and the last 3 days candles have formed a Morning Star (considered bullish). My stop was also hit, so I will wait to see what transpires today. The Butterfly I mentioned obviously kicked in a smidgeon early.
arco
Bank now expecting rate rises
29.09.05
By Brian Fallow
ANZ National Bank economists expect Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard to raise interest rates next month and again possibly in December as well.
This is a change of view for the ANZ National Bank, which previously, like most other market economists, thought the next move in the official cash rate would be down, although not until later next year.
It arises partly from the National Bank's latest monthly survey of business opinion, which records a jump in inflation expectations, to an average 3.13 per cent from 2.96 per cent last month
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/st...ectID=10347790
Thanks Peat
I've just checked my EOD charts and the pattern now completed appears to resemble a 'Crab' not a 'Butterfly'. This pattern is one of the most precise of all the Harmonic patterns, therefore the implications of this together with the Morning Star give a very bullish flavor at the moment.
Next minor Gann above is at 6958
arco
NZ: GDP for Q2 Up 1.1% Last up 0.6%, median forecast up 0.7%
China and Newzealand are signing a free-trade-zone-agreement..China may have to buy lots of Kiwi Dollars in the future on regular basis all the year around..No lack of natural kiwi dollar buyers
cut and paste from the gvi forum so no actual links to substantiate yet , but the price action suggests something happened!
this may be of interest to some of you
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...overs_by_index
spotting some divergence on the MACD
Just closed long (contrarian in me);)
48pips
Think this may still have some long in it
Cheers
Slam