So an optimist could say that ...
MHI is a long way from breaking the long term uptrend that started way back in 1998.
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So an optimist could say that ...
MHI is a long way from breaking the long term uptrend that started way back in 1998.
Yeah I think 1998 is the better reference, there weren't any "higher highs" from the brief 1991-92 NZ market boom all the way to the end of 1998 ('Course the mid 90s were characterized by a tough price war in Australia and the receivership of Prouds).
Yes, an optimist might say that, and continue holding. But a realist would observe the 2 year sequence of lower highs and say "MHI has been a wonderful growth stock in the past, but it has gone nowhere for over 2 years now. I am so glad that I acted on the SELL signal that was posted back in 2004 on page 3 of this thread".
This break of the long-term trendline is no more and no less than the confirmation of other, shorter term trendline breaks. There is now only one warning left should MHI continue to show technical weakness - a break below the previous support at $6.60. What would an optimist say then?
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MHIS830001.gif
Personally I felt the first break was enough to stay out of the share. While I have a lot of respect for MHIs performance, particularly when benchmarked against competitors like ANC, I prefer to love the company rather than love the share. If anyone wants to own MHI, there will be plenty of upside left after they have bottomed out. My pick would be somewhere in the 6's but with uncertain interest rate and inflation considerations, who knows?
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Those who didn't pick up below $7 - Why not?
Those who still didn't pick up between $7 and $7.50 - Why not?
Those still not looking for a few more - Why not?
Those who haven't got a clue what Im talking about should whack current fx-rates into their spreadsheets.
discl: laughing ;)
:D:D:D
as soon as it goes down...
voila!!!
Belg has been a net seller for 18 months
that spreadsheet is about to blow
ROTFLMAO:D:D:D:D:D
Whoa! Did I read that correctly? If you're admitting to selling while ramping then I think that is incredibly unethical...!!!Quote:
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Over the last 18 months I've been an 'unenthusiastic' net seller. (And I've taken advantage of the MHI 'reputation' and indulged in some bounce-back trading. And ramped it here too.)
Posted - 06/02/2005 - At the time when he bought, I think I said ... "buy when management buy?" ... there was little responseQuote:
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Over the last 18 months I've been an 'unenthusiastic' net seller.
Posted - 05/10/2005 - Hope y'all been soaking up the sellers ... I have ... One notes that L.W.P. is stilling buying and the Super has increased their (our?) stake.
Posted - 07/10/2005 - More insiders buying ...
Posted - 15/11/2005 - Almost zero trade for ages.Depth shows buyers but no sellers. And has done for weeks.And today L.W.P picks up more on the biggest trades for ages.A good sign? I hope so.
discl: one of my bigger holdings.
Originally posted by Phaedrus "Look how the OBV continues to rise - this stock is being accumulated, not distributed."
Posted - 21/12/2005 - Very true ...;)
Posted - 10/01/2006 - Under $7.00 works very well for me but I'll take any short-term bottom that presents itself to top up. As you both point out; MHI delivers!
Still, I feel tomorrow could well be unpleasant given that this announce came late in the day and caught many, including me, by supprize. This investor will be looking to buy more though
Posted - 11/01/2006 - Pathetic volume ... just two bids @ 680 and 660 ... Hm ... Time for a cheaky bid ... Ah but how cheaky?:D
Posted - 11/01/2006 - The FA's would now be looking to re-build. Bigger sellers, (with weaker stomachs or foriegn investors looking to get out while the NZD is high), will appear. (At least I hope so )
It ain't all over folks;)
Posted - 13/01/2006 - rmb ... I think you may be moving a bit to early if you just want 2000 shares. That said, if the objective, like mine is 're-stocking', then, IMHO, its a good start;)
Posted - 18/02/2006 - My buying policy given the thin trade is just to pick a point in the downtrend, buy all the time and stop when my original entry point is reached.
Posted - 13/03/2006 - Sooner or later the NZ market is going to cotton onto MHI's value in the event of the NZD going from 70c to 64 against the USD and 93c to 87c against the AUD ... But then, what do I know.
Posted - 23/03/2006 - Those who didn't pick up below $7 - Why not?
Those who still didn't pick up between $7 and $7.50 - Why not?
Those still not looking for a few more - Why not?
Those who haven't got a clue what Im talking about should whack current fx-rates into their spreadsheets.
discl: laughing
Posted - 05/04/2006 - Officers all topping up.;)
Above is Belgarions string of posts over the last 18 months in MHI...wow what a bull, buy buy buy, wink wink wink
Now, yes now;) he comes out with hey look! I've been an UNENTHUSIASTIC net seller over the last 18 months[:o)] Yes unenthusiastic...I would hate to be in a small room with this maniac when he gets enthusiastic, maybe that eye tick gets worse;););)
I think you have forgotten to cover your tracks Belg...
Do you lie to your friends and family as well?...silly Q don't answer
.... which means he has prob been a net seller of feltex as well .... but still has heaps
We have been sucked in pennywise.... i really feel so foolish now
yeah me too:(, I had so much trust in this guy, followed him down the garden path for 18 months
he's fleeced me
I want a govt. enquiry:D
I have had a pretty good run buying MHI on dips and selling for a profit but I am just a leettle bit worried this time around.
Disc: Bought last week at 7.17
Ouch?!Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus
Yes, an optimist might say that, and continue holding. But a realist would observe the 2 year sequence of lower highs and say "MHI has been a wonderful growth stock in the past, but it has gone nowhere for over 2 years now. I am so glad that I acted on the SELL signal that was posted back in 2004 on page 3 of this thread".
This break of the long-term trendline is no more and no less than the confirmation of other, shorter term trendline breaks. There is now only one warning left should MHI continue to show technical weakness - a break below the previous support at $6.60. What would an optimist say then?
rmbbrave, I'm curious - why, specifically, did you buy MHI, when it has been in a short-term downtrend for a month and a medium-term downtrend for 2 years?
For fun Phaedrus!
For any other poster I wouldn't bother but here is my trading history of MHI.
Bought 7.30 Feb 2005
Sold 7.99 - 8.02 March 2005
Bought 7.61 June 2005
Bought 7.12 Aug 2005
Sold 7.50 Sept 2005
Bought 7.30 Sept 2005
Sold 7.50 Sept 2005
Bought Jan 2006 6.95
Dividend 9cps
Sold Apr 2006 7.39
Bought Aug 2006 7.17
Currently an owner of MHI.
MHI seems to have very short term dips of the SP which then shoots back up to 7.50.
Who knows how long this pattern will last but we'll find out soon enough, I s'pose.
droll...'amusing in an odd way; whimsically humorous; waggish'Quote:
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Very droll.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by winner69
[brWe have been sucked in pennywise.... i really feel so foolish now
yes very amusing...thought the very same thing of your MHI net selling claim...that mirror is looking well polished Belgor...good boy
PS LOVE IT!!! ..absolutely love the non response to your string of rampant BUY calls on MHI...very very satisfying[^]
Belg,
I would say that, based on Pennywises research,you will need to explain your "ramping" posts whilst apparently being a net seller or suffer damage to your reputation as an ethical poster on this site.
Please explain.
"reputation as an ethical poster"
Kiwi, pllleeaseeeeee
this guy 'preaches' ethical only...reputation...bafaarharaarahafaa, too funny. have you read his drunk ravings last night in off topic...oh yeah, he's got a reputation...everyone is calling him a drunk.
we have been outing him for years for the hell of it
:D
See Phaedrus,Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus
rmbbrave, I'm curious - why, specifically, did you buy MHI, when it has been in a short-term downtrend for a month and a medium-term downtrend for 2 years?
Nothing to worry about - closed today at 7.20.
I bought at 7.17, perhaps a little early but it's okay.
Anyone else like the annoucement. I thought it was positive. Big jump in sales in Canada, Good jump in OZ and an ok rise in NZ. The pressure on margins from higher gold prices will be easing with the drop in the spot gold price and I think it looks good going ahead. The Canada operation must be profitable by now and the rollout there can probally take care of its self. Looks as though Canada will have a similar number of stores to NZ in just a few more years. The best news was the Jump in same store sales in both OZ and Canada meaning they are getting the format right. How about an expension into the UK next.
Possible triple bottom at 680 with spikes to 660, RSI divergence, top of range 720 or resistance at 780. May be worth a look.
See also comments on PGC and RBD threads.
George
George-may be better to wait for a clear reversal and buy into an uptrend.Sentiment not good for this stock-3 mths comments points to NPAT being lower than last yr-could go lower.