👍
Also a benefit to those participating in the SPP to have the sp below $2.50!
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with no expansion of the bubble coming soon.. and the fire about to rage out of control in the US , earning about to report in the USA. It could be that the stock tanks under the 2.40 for a short time and you MAY be able to top up more on market but its a slim chance. Low on the GFC was about 2.50 ish.
the big sell orders have been pulled...
moving back up 2.54... its as vol as ever.. wonderful trading stock.. DISC: we never sold ... sadly... we usually do...
A couple more data points notched up. The VWAP was quoted at $2.40.46 for 30th June ($2.34 with the 2.5% discount) and $250.67 for 1st July ($2.44 with the 2.5% discount). That last figure surprised me with the share price closing at $2.59. However there were a couple of big crossings at $2.39 first thing in the morning that must have skewed the average. If the second part of the dibble theory holds, that higher price should stick for the next couple of days, denying those small shareholders a sub $2.50 entry via the share plan. Let's see what happens.
SNOOPY
if you study the last 10 years of prices you will see plenty of entry points to trade. Well there is now another 10 years to trade and a world that is very very unstable.
Filled and sent off my SPP form online, will find out on 8th (wed) how much of what I asked will I get.
If todays VWAP stays roughly where it is now, looks like the new shares will be issued at about a 2% (5 cent) discount to the offer of two weeks ago
June 29 VWAP 252.51
June 30 VWAP 240.46
July 01 VWAP 247.47
July 02 VWAP 255.71
July 03 VWAP 260.15 (at present)
5 day average: 251.26ish
Less 2.5% = $2.45 ish per share
We have the last two data points. These are $2.5631 for 2nd July and $2.5961 for 3rd July. Those figures reduce to $2.50 and $2.53 respectively. So the average for all five data points is:
The dibble theory is confirmed! Albeit the share price rise, after discount, does not seem high enough to get past that $2.50 target figure.
($2.46 + $2.34 + $2.44 + $2.50 + $2.53)/ 5 = $2.45
That is the same answer as 'dubya' gets, so it must be right!
Actually I think some of those Blackrock shares were not crossed until the morning of the next day. So they stacked the price on 1st July as well.
But hang on a minute. What does the offer document actually say about the alternative option to the $2.50 price?
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(b) a 2.5% discount to the volume weighted average market price of the Shares traded on the NZX over the five business day period prior to and including the Closing Date, rounded down to the nearest cent.
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That reads like all of the trades over five days are being lumped into one big mixing bowl when it comes to working out the average. If that were to happen, then the shadow of the Blackrock dump would be cast over all the five days of trading. If that is how the calculation is done then we can expect a lower share issue price than $2.45. Surely this can't be right though? Wouldn't that leave the whole process ripe for manipulation by the 'big boys'?
SNOOPY
Snoops — yes your last paragraph is correct ...one big mixing pot with all 5 days sales in it.
hmm should have bought in multiple folios and transferred off market after all...
"prior to and including the Closing Date"
well done snoopy... you hopefully are the winner!!!
sorry about that...
Blackrock buying back??
1:50:19 pm 1:50:19 pm 260.5 5,000,920 0.5 $13,027,396 1
Interesting to see how many shares I will get, before the SPP, I owned 2 shares, I submit for $17,000 worth of shares. Will we know by lunch time tomorrow?
well done NOCASH!
I already am heavily invested in SKC at less than $2.50 average cost so I only applied for $5k. Based on my shareholding I expect to get it all even if it is pro rata.
No oversubscriptions according to 22nd June announcement. Looks like you can expect to be issued a maximum of around 25% of your holdings as of 16th June in the SPP, maybe a little more if lots of holders don't apply.
Final price for SPP $2.38 with 91% uptake, looks like most will get what they applied for.
Looks like I was wrong - well undersubscribed so should be some extras floating around. Punt has paid off.
Damn..I should have applied for more..
What does it mean for me with 2 Sky City shares, I will get the Full $17,000 That I applied for?
There are only 6000 retail shareholders approximately - I should have looked at this statistic before making a decision.
90% of shares are owned by 83 large institutions. Retail shareholder had an advantage here over large shareholders in increasing their shareholdings
I will get 10K worth of shares I applied for.
Yes. You will get all that you applied for.
I just think that most retail investors appetite for risk is very low at the moment. There have been so many SPP lately that many will be running low on funds. I’ve put 6 figures into SPP and buying opportunities in the last couple of months. You have to draw a line somewhere.
I think mom and pop investors don’t want to take risks. New (younger) retail investors and the sharesies crowd are being seduced by the biotech and software companies at the moment although clearly there are a few sharesies investors jumping in here too with SKC
Did not apply personally as I'm already hitting the tip of my ML limit, as well as SKC is already over 5% of my personal portfolio. But applied I did for maximum, on our other account trading as a company. Just to balance that other portfolio. All is just good for the spp price.
lock down in aus might have some downward pressure.
thanks for reminding me wrong state. I dont visit that land much , cousins reside there so i better pop over again one day not to soon. im just jealous at all those retail investors who got one of the best deals on the market in a long time...:) DISC: Hold but at a higher price.....:sleep: from last year. The man with 2 shares did well. Best strategy ever....deserves applause.:t_up:
I'm a pretty happy camper too. I managed to get a decent parcel at $2.39 when Blackrock sold down at close last week. Had to pay a bit of commission tho.
Possibly more good luck than good management :)
I've got allocated what I applied for, all of $15k worth :t_up:
Well im not warren buffet but i would not sell any of the newly allocated share for 5 years at least if your average price is under 2.50. Snoopy and others might disagree but i see is has stated he was going to "full his boots". Not often snoopy is so bullish on a stock. Check his statements here over the last 5 years or so.
Pretty good long term chart I reckon (covid excluded)
Attachment 11757
Yes dubya i hope you are right and they had put much nicer seats in at the bar in hamilton, very comfortable now. I dont gamble on the machines but sometimes i think i might gamble a bit on stocks but i usually only trade the boring ones with a good balance sheet and pay a dividend and i leave the growth to younger generation. Most of our time is spent on software anyway not stocks.
Have to work on those headings, maybe relevant in 2006, maybe relevant now. Had to think a bit. Dont like to do that much these days.
If you login to to the registry, it will show your newly allocated shares already.
They have not sent email communications and won't until Monday 13th.
Is anyone panicking? The share price has been dropping in the last 3 trading days in a row... are we heading back to $210's ? Oh no..... i'm playing with Revolving Credit mortgage money :(
This is why i did not take up the cap raise. DISC: hold in 2 portfolios. About to prehaps start trading this soon in another company portfolio... Its doing exactly what i hoped it would... perfect and right on que.
Good to see Rob Campbell getting his full allocation in the NZX DISCLOSURE OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGERS INTERESTS announcement today.
I knew Rob wouldn't let a good buying opportunity like this SPP go astray.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/356231
My gut feeling said....SP will stay at current level or even lower...till at least early next year. As we don't see any international tourism....as Qantas cancelled all international flights till March 2021.
The only revenue stream is from casino depand on locals n online. F n b....just to cover or break even. Hotel... mostly school holidays...events...all companies are cutting Costs.
Recent headline said.... redundant staffs are angry because SKC applied extended wage subsidy.
So yeahh....long journey ahead
Well....if one can storm it up n put it on the drawer then would be fine......
but how how many can do that....looking at your stock under the water....especially the world is uncertain
in 2025? im expecting well over 4 dollars. If you look at eh GFC graph SKC i think was one of the slower climbers out of the great recession. Im expecting a very slow climb back. But there were plently of people on the first nights of level one in hamilton enjoying the food and the bar for a night out.
I was in hospitality sector before....let me tell u....the margin of hospitality business is little....u might see busy but making little 2 to 4 percebt of total revenue if u lucky
I agree with KING , the climb for skc will be even slower than GFC due to the big spending international party crowd for auckland and tourism is not there for the next 24 months?
looks like it could rise a bit here from that wedge
but the pattern is overbearing on it
Attachment 11784
Thanks for the graph, I got out at 2.55 today. Uncertainly times brings uncertain sell, I hope i don't regret it when Xmas comes around.. if the share prices goes over $3.00 before during or before Xmas Silly Season, i will be sad :(
I think you made a good decision Nocash. Refer to SKC chart.even during the tourism booming n dividend paying ....the SP was hoovering around $3.80 to $4.
I am really tempted to buy on too...but considering with bleak forecast tourism sector .....I don't think SKC is a good place to put your money
Updated guidance from SKC
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358329
“ SkyCity’s normalised earnings results for FY20 are expected to remain within, and be at the upper end of, the previous guidance ranges.
Reported earnings will be higher than previous guidance as a result of higher estimates for the insurance proceeds for the damage to and reinstatement costs for the New Zealand International Convention Centre and Horizon Hotel arising from the fire. Offsetting this increase in reported earnings, and as previously advised, SkyCity proposes to recognise an impairment of Adelaide Casino’s book value of A$150 million (NZ$161 million).
SkyCity will release its full FY20 financial results on 3 September 2020.
FY20 Results ($m) Previous Guidance
Reported EBITDA 440-480(1)
Reported NPAT 330-360(1)
Normalised EBITDA(3) 185-205
Normalised NPAT(3) 52-67
FY20 Results ($m) Updated Guidance
Reported EBITDA 346-349(2)
Reported NPAT 234-236(2)
Normalised EBITDA(3) 199-202
Normalised NPAT(3) 65-67
(1) Before any potential impairment of Adelaide Casino’s book value.
(2) Includes the proposed impairment of Adelaide Casino’s casino licence value.
(3) For an explanation on SkyCity’s approach to non-GAAP adjustments, refer to SkyCity’s result presentations at https://www.skycityentertainmentgrou...esentations/.”
surely you cant give guidance with an estimated insurance claim?? insurers are notorious for whittling away unsettled claims
A good solid rise today, up almost 9%.
Great to see. Hopefully the start of the long haul back towards $4.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...193/330024.pdf
Good result all things considered.
Interesting to note that SKC temporarily crossed over the 50% fib level in intra-day trading, this is first break in over 2 months, last time this happened it went to $3 pretty quick.
It should be noted that it did close under 50% so it may be a false break out, will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.
Particularly after mid-day.
Before the Australian market opened at mid-day, SKC looks to have traded in a tight range around 255-258, up slightly on recent trading and yesterday's close but nothing particularly unusual. Between mid-day and 1pm the price took off and reached 275 before slowly heading down for the rest of the day and getting down to around 263 then closing at 267. Certainly looks like those over the ditch liked the result more than their kiwi counterparts. Where the price goes may depend on which market has more price setting power.
thats always been the case with sky city. It never used to do anything until well into the afternoon with HK coming on line ... silly aussie punters did not read the bottom line.... the profits will stay down for another 6 months at least..
the hamilton sky city champagne bar is shut except for special hired events.. there are no champagne drinker in hamilton , best bar ever built in hamilton and its basically always shut or empty..
used to be a great place to take your german or swedish french visitors... well there are still some nice outdoor country places... hamilton gardens cafe looking a bit sad these days..
Investors Mutual Fund were busy buying y'day....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/359269
Aussi looks to open lower.. the local sharies people probably dont know the price is set from this point on from the overseas exchanges
big dif today between NZ and AUS /250 over and 2.76 here
should have bought there and sold here..
sharies people driving it up here? amazing
Does not seem to have much impact though, currently NZ 2.75..
yes very disappointing it did not sell off... still our other holdings will benefit when div resume..a 2025 story for return to 4.50 prehaps or sooner.
DISC: holding well under that thank goodness... never hold a casino for long... its a trading stock.
I'm not much of a chart follower, and it's probably a pretty simplistic view. but the 5 year chart excluding covid is pretty damn steady. Plus the dividends along the way.
I think it'll get back up there, maybe not super quickly, but I've been wrong many times before. :)
It's got to be a good yield stock going forward (surely?) and the company finances are in great shape following the capital raise(s) and the insurance payouts coming to some fruition.
Attachment 11923
That chart says this is not a growth share but a reliable cash engine, Casino's aren't going out of fashion and should return to normal SP in what, a year or so? The yield is on offer now, for those who don't mind the ethical investment thing, or the long burn no growth with reliable returns. Personally I wouldn't buy a sideways forever share, even for the dividend. Not sure about the ethics of investing in peoples frailty either.
"no growth" i think with the new developments they have slow growth!
If the get back to 3-50, 4 dollars in 24 months its a range trade.
If you rebought at 2 dollars well done.
Yes it has certain ethic questions but it not weapons development and its similar to horse betting i think.
we only trade this one , when it returns to our cost price..we will be selling as usual. Banks also are trading stock always. air line as well now unfortunately...
in the mean time we will be extending the back office software its a time to develop for the new future.
Fair enough. A lot of punters seem happy to tie money up for 7 years in a low yield, no growth bond (that is not risk free) these days. If I were inspired to put a few k away for 7 years to generate a little revenue I'd prefer something whose yield might at least match inflation (and that is easy to trade). Not sure if SKC is ideal but would prefer it to latest SUM bonds.
nasdaq about to start selling off.. the market will go down on options the DOW and SP will get downward pressure. It should provide some vol in all stock indexs including the NZX..
$3 on the horizon...
Stock is pricing next years dividend. If you study this stock over a long period of time and i mean long you will see its one of the most tradeable stocks on the NZX.
last 5 months has been the best trading market in living memory.
The 3 weeks fabulous, yesterday perfect and today well , it just cant get any better than this can it?