How did the sugar trade work out as a short?
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How did the sugar trade work out as a short?
it was profitable thanks Steve but in hindsight I should have held it longer... I was a little overleveraged to be honest so banked things too soon.
Peat, how would you rate the book so far in terms of application?
Steve - I am still enthusiastic about its strategies even if it wouldnt be unfair to criticise it from a a writing perspective. I have no regrets about buying it.
I've done a lot of research and reading over the last few years and of course fibonacci was there lurking but this is the first book that makes me think I can use it successfully. Note that I'm not necessarily succeeding at using it yet but I seem to have grasped the tool a lot more convincingly in my head from reading it.
I'm seeing turning points at various fib levels in so many graphs. Even the NZD (which they say is not a good technical trade) and admittedly is killing me a bit at the moment appears to conform.
No system will ever be perfect. So much is dependent on entry rules , stop levels, emotional containment etc....
http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/8007/slamaf3.png
Hi Peat,saw your "U" comment on the other thread,yep some ok u's there,we are looking at much the same thing just from a different angle.
Using the KISS system there was a simple trend line trade on the third daily candle on both these pairs.
Cheers
Miner
Hi All
Its party time.......
Broadband has now been connected (at great expense).............
(Yeah Telecom stuffed up again, and I had to get a computer nerd to sort it out).
Anyway...a few xtras for you.........
News items for this week.
04-30-07 8:30am et USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
05-01-07 10:00am et USD ISM Manufacturing Index
05-02-07 8:15am et USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
05-03-07 8:30am et USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q (p)
05-03-07 9:30pm et AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
05-04-07 8:30am et USD Nonfarm Employment Change
GTA -arco
Good your back Arco[8D].
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
Thanks......(trust all is good with you my friend, and the forex gods are looking kindly upon your a/c).
Its been hard (as the bishop said to the actress), ...........
but all those phone calls and countless arguments with many mindless employees at TC eventually resulted in a 'port' becoming mysteriously available. (I cant even hope to explain how loud do you really have to scream to get something happening).
All I can say is - keep bothering TC, and get yerself a case number so that you dont have to repeat the same story 1000 times.
arco - speeding along at 11.00 mbps - at last :D
do you really get 11 MB/s thats faaast.
From Jyske Bank
Yesterday we saw the CPI from US to be
lower than expected. The sluggish economy
is helping to tame inflationary pressures
and brings forward the most likely
time for a cut in rates. The interest rate
differential should move in favour of
Europe and drive European currencies
higher.
Today’s key events
• 10:30, Jobless claims, GBP
• 10:30, Unemployment rate, GBP
• 11:00, CPI, EUR
• 14:30, Housing starts, USD
• 15:15, Industrial output, USD
• 17:00, Fed’s Kohn speaks
Hi Peat
Yes it always seems to say 11, and hopefully thats
what I'm getting.
And, now although a little late
- a few news items for this week.
Tue May 15 4:30am et GBP CPI y/y
Tue May 15 8:30am et USD Core CPI m/m
Tue May 15 9:00am et USD Long Term TIC Flows
Tue May 15 6:45pm et NZD PPI Input q/q
Wed May 16 4:30am et GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
Wed May 16 5:30am et GBP BOE Inflation Report
Wed May 16 9:15am et USD Industrial Production m/m
Wed May 16 7:50pm et JPY GDP Deflator y/y (p)
Thu May 17 7:00am et CAD Core CPI m/m
Fri May 18 4:30am et GBP Retail Sales m/m
Fri May 18 8:30am et CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
Here you are Peat
Killing 2 birds with one stone.
A 10 pip scalp on the Aussie...and 11 mbps
Aussie could go lower of course, but hopefully
not the mbps
http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/8075/audnw4.gif
regards - arco
hmmm wireless tho, so thats probably your local network connection from your lappy to the router , not your connection to the internet as such.
go to http://www.nzdsl.co.nz/module-Speedtest.phtml
and do a speed test there see what ya get
I got this :
Download Speed: 1465 kbps (183.1 KB/sec transfer rate)
Upload Speed: 69 kbps (8.6 KB/sec transfer rate)
nice little scalp - its good the way oanda shows the trades on the chart, MarketMaker doesnt do that.
Thanks Peat
Just checked and its giving 2408 download, and 126 upload
regards - arco
yeh thats more like the standard internet speed 2.5 MB/s down ; 128k up.
I get that speed sometimes too depending on when i do the test. good to see you're no more special than the rest of us arco heheh.
Good site peat
Download Speed: 4089 kbps (511.1 KB/sec transfer rate)
Upload Speed: 1925 kbps (240.6 KB/sec transfer rate)
;)
Cable
Cheers
Slam
Hi chaps,a "U" trade?,eur/jpy hourly looking to go back and test 163.88ish,usd/jpy is looking better and through on the daily,so eur/jpy should follow,anyway see how we go.
Cheers
miner
Hi Miner (and Slam - long time no see)
Miner
I had a short term signal to go long at 163.33 but I
will be watching the area 163.71-163.80 for a possible
bear Gartley (and AB=CD) termination.
regards - arco
Evening Arco ta for that,I went long at 163.44,on a first thought trade(often the best as in think to much and you blow it) as fired up the screens this arvo and first thing I thought was there is a nice "U".
Just moved stop to break even,if it tests my target will probably creep up behind it to see if it goes through as usd/jpy looks ok.
Went long on this a couple of days ago at 162.84(same thing first thought) but was looking at the daily for a big "U",but put an even stop on overnight and got stopped out.
But ok as first two trades for ages as still sick and feel like death,but have now got an appointment to see the surgeon,then fingers crossed the opp,when sorted will be back into it,system working well though so good.
Hope your trading going ok.
Cheers
Miner
Evening Miner
Just devoured one of the wifes excellent chicken curries [:p]
and now back on line to see Eur.Jpy still going strong +42,
but currently testing the harmonic points. Tight stop now.
(Posssible Tweezer Top - 30 minutes).
Trust you will soon be able to get those problems sorted.
Best regards - arco
Lucky for some:D,had to cook my dinner:(,now moved stop up to 163.54 ( thought at worst bank 10 pips) was 30 pips on the table a few mins ago but will give it a wee bit of room and see how we go,more of a back on the horse trade after a long break for me,and usd/jpy (daily) looks ok.
Cheers
Miner
Morning Arco,well stop got hit last night as it got beaten back around your numbers,will look for it to head further north today though as usd/jpy is looking ok,see what they are like on the daily change,my direction was right so that is the main thing.
Cheers
miner
Hi Slam I see we have new power charts,are they working for you?,or am I just the lucky one again:(.
Cheers
Miner
Hi All
Here are some news items for this week that might affect trading.
Wed May 23 4:30am et GBP BOE Meeting Minutes
Wed May 23 6:45pm et NZD Trade Balance
Thu May 24 4:00am et EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
Thu May 24 8:30am et USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Thu May 24 10:00am et USD New Home Sales
Fri May 25 4:30am et GBP GDP q/q (p)
regards - arco
Hi MinerQuote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
Hi Slam I see we have new power charts,are they working for you?,or am I just the lucky one again:(.
Cheers
Miner
Sorry haven't been watching forex for a few weeks now, but yes, new and improved charts, not.
If you are having probs with them, try updating your Java engine
http://www.java.com/en/download/installed.jsp
that is the link if you are using sun java.
(you will be able to tell by the icon in your taskbar. dbl click on it and it will tell you what brand and version)
If you use MS jave machine, it should update when windows updates.
but I would suggest using the sun one.
Let me know if you still have problems.
Has youre trading station been locking up as well?
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam,ta for that but upgraded java today and charts still don't work,as for trading station usd/chf just changed as I type was stuck on 123.07(back on it now) for half an hour or more.
Talked to FXCM and they said others having chart problems also,so looks like it's the old wait until they sort it story.
Cheers
miner
The new systems working well now since I removed a few indicators.....
http://www.themaddashforcash.com/tro/TrippyChart.jpg
chortle chortle.
thats a trippy chart , looks like a mad dash for cash!
no trades right now... kinda knackered after a long day fighting IT fires. didnt even have time to look at the charts today at work [:I]
Hi Slam are you still having trouble with power charts?,they start ok but as soon as you go to set up what you want they drop the connection off.
Cheers
miner
Found this,just about as good as power charts http://www.avafx.com/tp/
Cheers
Miner
Hi MinerQuote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
Hi Slam are you still having trouble with power charts?,they start ok but as soon as you go to set up what you want they drop the connection off.
Cheers
miner
Got real problems with the trading platform as well atm.
opens then locks up, cant do a thing.[B)]
Lucky I have no positions
May have to do a re instal of everything
Cheers
Slam
B#mmer,when you get the platform sorted have a look at the link for charts(free demo) but more importantly(for me anyway) other than a couple of things the same as power charts.
Cheers
Miner
Just in case you need a kidney anytime..........
Welcome to Pakistan, the world's kidney bazaar
Indebted farmers sell them for about $2,500
November 13, 2006
BY SADAQAT JAN
JANDALA, Pakistan -- Nassem Kausar has done it. So, she says, have her sister, six brothers, five sisters-in-law and two nephews.
Each has sold a kidney to a trade that has led Pakistan's media to dub the country a ''kidney bazaar.''
''We do this because of our poverty,'' said Kausar.
A kidney nets the donor $2,500, sometimes less than half that amount, while recipients -- some 2,000 a year -- pay $6,000 to $12,000, compared with $70,000 in neighboring China.
Critics blame an economic system that enmeshes farmers in chronic debt, forcing them to sell their kidneys, and say the trade should be banned. The government says it is taking action.
Illegal in U.S.
In the United States, donating kidneys for money is banned. But the International Society of Nephrology has suggested expanding the pool of kidney donors by legalizing payment of about $40,000 to donors.
At least 20 transplant clinics exist in Pakistan, and 10 percent of the patients are foreigners, many from the Middle East and ''one or two'' from Europe, said Bakhsh Ali, a senior official at the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation.
Donors need check-ups
The government has drafted legislation to ''regulate'' kidney transplants, monitor surgeries and ''encourage family donors,'' said Health Ministry official Athar Saeed Dil, who has helped draft the proposed law.
He declined to say if an outright ban was planned, but Mukhtar Hamid Shah, a prominent surgeon who opened a transplant center in 1979, said the government plans to outlaw donations for money by non-family members and impose seven-year prison sentences on surgeons who break the law.
The Sindh Institute's Ali said donors need constant check-ups to keep their blood pressure and sugar under control and protect the remaining kidney.
'I cannot run'
But some donors said they received no follow-up care.
''I pant. I cannot run. I cannot pick up heavy things,'' said Allah Yar, a 50-year-old farmer who has suffered poor health for seven years since selling a kidney.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/world/1...-kid13.article
Thats probably more true than the internet myths that circulated a while back such as...
"My friend's cousin's sister Fiona (Editors note: Fiona is not her real name. Her real name is Mary Ann Jedson) was vacationing in New Orleans. She met a man at a bar and they started talking. They hit it off and he bought her a drink.
The next thing she remembers is waking up in a bathtub filled with ice. There was a phone next to the bathtub with a note taped to it that said 'Call 911.'
Fiona did this and explained the strange circumstances to the 911 operator. The operator, well familiar with organ harvesters asked Fiona to slowly reach behind and feel if there is a tube protruding out of her back. To her horror she found one, luckily the 911 operator had all ready contacted the ambulance and Fiona was saved."
In three years, 25 per cent of all foreign-exchange trading will be conducted with algorithmic trading, up from 12 per cent now, says the Aite Group.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10443567
This was a movie about 3 years ago from memory...Quote:
quote:Originally posted by peat
The next thing she remembers is waking up in a bathtub filled with ice. There was a phone next to the bathtub with a note taped to it that said 'Call 911.'
Fiona did this and explained the strange circumstances to the 911 operator. The operator, well familiar with organ harvesters asked Fiona to slowly reach behind and feel if there is a tube protruding out of her back. To her horror she found one, luckily the 911 operator had all ready contacted the ambulance and Fiona was saved."
my book (mainly using daily/weekly graphs) suggests 4 days high/low as your trailing stop but obviously that would be adjusted to whatever period you were viewing eg 4hrs, or 4 x 15 min, or. it says put the stop below the previous valley (for a long).Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Dazza
what kind of trailing stops do people use/suggest?
im a bit lost as to what that means
care for an example pls?
for a short , take the high of the last 4 periods (days , hours , whatever time frame you used to generate you buy signal - say for last night I think you were using 15 min - ) and once the target objective has been reached if the price goes above that high of the last 4 periods then you are stopped. if price keeps going lower you keep adjusting the stop down to the high of the last four candles.
I probably need a diagram for the peak/trough method - I'll have to do that later from home.
Dazza
Heres a diagram based on CBL (as stops) prepared awhile back, and connected to a short trade mentioned here on ST 26/04/2005 : 3:54 PM. It shows count back lines based on 3 periods. Follow the numbers (i.e 1 below relates to 1 above and shows where the stop goes, and so on). For more info google Guppy Count Back Lines.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.a...59&whichpage=1
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v5...2005AUDCBL.gif
Hope that helps - arco
Dazza
This shows how to get in and out using an auto system 2/CBL on Metastock.
2CBL is a bit tight IMO, and I prefer to use 3/CBL.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v5...s/Euro2CBL.gif
ic ill study on it a bit
Guppy Multiple Moving Average
also that as well
With FX, charts, anyone manage to use ATR properly
for eg
using an ATR of 14, on a 15 minute chart, it gives me like 4 pips etc however 7 hours ago it was 12 pips
i read somewhere that people use 2ATR as their stop loss as well etc
ok i can see the counting back on your first chart, with the 2CBL
however when does one count back? if doing manually you would do it on completion of every candle stick right?
obviously when you are not online, you dun do it, so when u come back online, you just count back 2 or 3 sticks and replace ur stop order mark.
would that be one of the reason why there is a big gap between marks 3 and 4?
Dazza
In the case of a short you need a lower low before you re-calculate the SL. (Longs are calculated in the reverse - ie. higher high).
arco
Well first day watching for a while and see usd/jpy and eur/jpy have had very nice runs,hope someone got a bit of them?.
Cheers
Miner
If you look at the hourly on usd/jpy and eur/jpy you will see a couple of great U trades,so the type of set up to look for,as once they have turned at the top of the U it's a fairly safe bet that they will continue to the bottom of the U.
Cheers
Miner
Late entry but up 30 odd pips on the eur/jpy hourly U,usd/jpy doing the same.
Cheers
Miner
Burgernomics
Its official - NZ has the dearest burgers in the world
http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ory_id=9448015http://www.economist.com/images/20070707/CFN628.gif
Will the last person to leave please turn out the light
http://www.sevenoaksart.co.uk/images/bulb04.gif
you mean this forum or NZ ?
yeh sorry Arco but as you might have guessed from a private communication I'm pretty much done with forex now. In time my interest might resume from an academic point of view but right now not even that. I'd stay interested even if it broke even for me as I would like to continue in a hobbyish way, but its not smart for me to keep pouring money into it. My ultimate stop loss has been hit. I will still glance at the goings on here but wont have an opinion on much coz clearly that opinion has been wrong too often.
someones doing ok tho !
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10450882
Hey miner
you ok up there with all this rain?
Slam
Hi Peat
Seems little point in posting much now as most of the forex posters have disappeared into the blue yonder, and theres no feedback.....and I cant see much point in this becoming just an 'arco blog'
I know there are lots of lurkers on here, but a forum should be exactly that - a forum
If a few more people start conversing, I can be more active here
regards - arco
yeh I can understand that arco... where will you post mostly you think?
this happened outside my apartment the other day.
its a scaffolding fallen down on cars queued at the lights on Kitchener St
http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/1317/smashhx6.jpg[/URL]
Morning Peat
I will not be posting anywhere else at the moment.
If I do I will PM you through ST. Sharetrader was
always a very friendly site and I made a number of
personal friends of the years. Other forums dont seem
to come close.
If you need any info you can PM me.
regards - arco
Hi Arco/Peat
Yes has been quiet here for a while.
I have been doing allot outside of forex for quite a while now, but always watch this thread with interest.
For me it is a matter of having no valuable input.
(or you could say " better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool, than open it and remove all doubt:))
As I said a few post back, I am gearing up for another run at it, but I fear that I may be in the same situation as peat, ie investing to much hard earned dosh into this learning experience.
My problems is exits, I pick up the pip's ok, just to squander them on second guessing.
(fear and greed)
Anyhow, once I am up to speed, I will attempt to post some of my thoughts.
Arco, in no way think of this as a plea for you to keep posting, I totally understand your view and would feel the same.
gta
slam
Hi slam I was in Auckland until yesterday,got home to only one tree across the driveway and a defrosted fridge freezer as the power only just came back on.
As for your last post to me FX can often be a take the money and run game as there will always be another trade,so if you get in profit creep a stop up behind it,if you get taken out and it does more bummer but you still made some $$$ and just look for the next trade which will soon be along.
Not trying to criticize but rather pass on what I have learnt the hard way,also eur/jpy and usd/jpy are allot better pairs to play than others,tidy give good runs etc,watch them and you will see what I mean,eur/jpy is the one I play 90% of the time.
Cheers
Pat
Tim Knight founded Prophet.net, considered by Forbes and Barrons to be the #1 technical analysis site (sold in early 2005 to INVESTools, where he is the SVP of Technology now). Tim has been trading actively since 1987 and focuses mostly on option positions. He is a dyed-in-the-wool technician, leaning heavily on marked-up charts for his analysis.
IMO Quite an interesting blog if you ever have any spare time.........
http://tradertim.blogspot.com/
Beware........
Pump-and-dump scammers turn to Excel - Scammers using excel to bypass spam filters
http://www.computerworld.com.au/inde...0;fp;16;fpid;1
yeh its yet another job for us server admins to patch the Office applications as well.... more and more monthly security vulnerabilities are Office related.
(I make a living from MS slackness) ;)
Kiwi went over 81 !!! 1900 pips in two months.... butterflies or not isnt that just too much??
I dont think Bollard should hike. I reckon he could easily justify not hiking by saying he needs time to wait and let his recent hikes take more effect.
But I forgot - I vowed not to have an opinion anymore lol.
Hi Peat
Yes the Kiwi has had an amazing move - no doubt about it.
But its a hard move to stop - as I said many weeks ago.
Anyway, congratulations go to the big brown moth - perfect harmonics.
cheers - Scott;)
Dear All,
What packages do you use?
Have been using Icon FX but thought that there was abetter way to approach this.
Interested in real time feed etc
Thanks
aurelian
I use Oanda for real time (and Metastock for EOD)
rgds - arco
I use CMC for real-time Forex & Metastock for EOD
Lots of lurkers around perhaps?
Sharetrader moves up 173 places to No 38 on the 'most visited Forex Websites'
http://www.forexontop.com/search/index.php
you find some interesting websites Arco !
yeh I'm around and still making wrong calls.... see NZD thread lol
put a small amount in my account again so I can have a flutter when I feel ready. Tempted to try my hand at shorting the Dow , but we'll see.... certainly an increase in volatility lately. Central banks pumping out billions of liqudity isnt something you see every day.
Amazing to see Aud/Jpy back below 100 again after I made the big call to short it back there and it promptly went up 800 pips.
Hi Peat
Good to see you are still around, and wishing you good fortune with your trades.
Havent read this free e-book yet...but it looks like it may be interesting....
....... As you progress from page to page you'll see the importance of Phantom's insight on trading as I have over the years. Trading is not as we all thought. Few have ever approached his methods in trading. How do you measure the worth of a man or women I still ask myself after that short walk to the top of the hill. Here is a trader who is the best trader I have ever known and perhaps the best trader in the world. We will measure his worth by his deeds and insights into trading! Yes, that's how we will size up Phantom of the Pits.
Phantom of the PIts - Art Simpson
http://www.mypivots.com/articles/boo...f%20the%20Pits
arco
Lloyds TSB is to pay out $12.5m (£6.25m) for its alleged part in a $100m-plus foreign currency scam in the United States.
Though not admitting liability, the British bank has agreed a settlement to compensate victims of the fraud in a US class action suit in the name of Ralph Gonzales, a private investor. Man Financial, the futures and derivatives trader spun out of Man group in July and now called MF Global, has agreed to pay $4.1m in the same case - again without admitting guilt.
The class action alleged that Lloyds TSB, Man Financial and the Californian accountancy firm Kaplan, Swicker & Simha aided and abetted a breach of fiduciary duty and fraud and contravened sections of RICO - the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organisations Act.
Mr Gonzales was one of more than 300 investors who bought into a currency scheme sold between July 1998 and February 2003 by Moshe Leichner and his son Zvi. In messages on internet bulletin boards, the two promised investors they would gain 2-4% a month by foreign currency dealing through their companies - most prominently Midland Euro Exchange. They took in an estimated $130m, including $40m from clients of one Florida investment adviser.
But the Leichners were operating a Ponzi scheme, where high returns are possible only if more and more new investors can be found to put in cash to pay out to scheme members who want to quit.
According to Debra Wong Yang, a Californian federal prosecutor, less than 20% of the money was actually invested. The rest was spent by the Leichners on themselves. They bought boats, houses and luxury cars as well as hiding away millions in secret offshore accounts.
Even though the US regulator, the National Futures Association, had barred Midland Euro from business in October 2001, and Zvi Leichner had been personally suspended in March 2000, the pair continued to enjoy banking and other financial facilities.
In 2003, the Leichners were arrested by the FBI. They pleaded guilty to wire fraud, money laundering and operating an illegal Ponzi scheme. Moshe was sentenced to 20 years, his son to 11 years.
Investors sued organisations they claimed had aided and abetted the Leichners - albeit unwittingly. After the Lloyds TSB and Man settlements, they expect to see about 30% of their money returned.
"The bank admits no liability," Lloyds TSB said. "The settlement has been reached to put an end to the distraction and expense of litigation."
http://money.guardian.co.uk/news_/st...149687,00.html
gotta say
the markets are insane!!!
Kiwi back into the 69's now
Aud/Jpy 95 !
Unlilke y'day there are a few greens on the homepage of http://www.findata.co.nz
but its still pretty much a complete bleed....
Enjoy....relax
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEc4YWICeXk
hhmmm thats how you fill your time , well how about this one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-prfAENSh2k
Nice - safer than trying to catch falling knives......
Long lost Xerof
Welcome Back Xerof
arco
Does anyone have an explanation why there was a big spike in the currency graphs this morning. I thought it may have been just the NB graphs but it appears on NZ Forex as well. The top of the spike is not a logical value but because of it the graph for the rest of the day is very flat.
http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/econom...nge/nzdtwi.htm
777
On Oanda the charts looks OK. There was a move up to fib 618 of
yesterdays NZD.USD down move but it was over a 5 hour period.
rgds - arco
Fed dropped their discount rate
I really was watching the Dow using 2 min candles and it jumped 300 points !
Thank you Arco for your reply. It was a big day for currency on Friday and the graph looked a bit odd to me.
some of you may know the theory that I have worked with from a book called , Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders by Robert Fischer. Essentially it states that retracements from fib extns are tradeable back to the previous fib level. It worked beautifully on the DOW this morning on a 5 minute candle timeframe giving 50 or more points.
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/4...1082007og6.jpg
Shot at 2007-08-20
and here in the other direction it went thru the 261 a bit, hit the 100 from the previous graph and bounced strongly , the green candle was the signal in at 13053 out at 13079. a smaller movement this time but hey pips is pips.
http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/6...2007re8.th.jpg
DO any of you huys do the carry trade?
Its looks pretty attractive.
The US guys have bailed but the Japanese retail market will probably see it as a good opportunity to buy in cheap.
I read that there were $3.5b Uridashi maturing this month, from the upwards currency move its doesn't look like its unravelling.
Short yen long Aussie may be safer as the Aussie economy is a little more stable the NZ?
Any thoughts?
hi hairdresser, i would say at present the carry trade thing is too close to call ,suddenly its all about risk rather than economic fundementals . the carry trade block is now coupled very closely to equity markets which will remain very volatile for a while to come. the carry trade was a one way bet in a unique low risk enviroment which has certainly turned, so im not so sure yield is king any more. i have dipped my toe in nz aus market last few days but the rebound feels as though its lacking momentum so looking to get out .
Thanks I've just been reading about the good returns the US funds have been getting on the. Looks to good to be true. But I expect the US to get back into it and the dollar should get a nice run up.
I've never played the currency but theres still a lot of Japanese yen floating around looking for a home.
hey peat , i like your charts , how do you post a chart avoiding those thumbnails
I just use the command Alt-Printscreen and then paste it into MSPaint. Save it as a jpeg file then host that file on imageshack . If the image was a large one then I need to tell imageshack to resize it for me if I didnt resize it myself. Then you get the link off imageshack and place it it in your post. Imageshack also offers thumbnails as in my most recent picture.
Some people use other image hosting websites and say its easier but nothing that difficult about imagehack I reckon.
Practice a bit until you get it right - this forum allows you to edit or delete your posts so theres no harm in practising.
But after typing all that I now see that the upgrade to sharetrader allows you to use them as a host....
just click on manage attachments in the additional options section when you're making a new post.
Evening chaps a friend wants me to look at nzd/gbp and nzd/eur for them but I don't have those pairs with the charts I use,so can someone give me a link to some (free) charts that do ?,don't have to be anything flash.
Hope you are all making good pips,I have been grabbing a few with eur/jpy last few days,great pair to trade.
Cheers
Miner
dont know any that use those miner.
Heres todays gem from BlackSwanTrading
FX Trading – Another calm before the storm?
The bad boys at the Federal Reserve are sure looking good right about now. Their little surprise discount rate maneuver last Friday has really quieted down financial markets this week.
Not only are global equity markets rebounding, but the currencies have stabilized as well. What’s being most closely watched is how the Japanese yen is performing.
Practically a fool-proof indicator, the yen moves inversely with risk-taking. If risk-taking is prevalent in the marketplace, yen are being borrowed and the value of yen falls. If risk is being pared back, then yen borrowings are being repaid and the value of yen rises.
After surging as much as 10% since the end of June, investors are wondering, “What’s up with the yen?”
All week it’s slowly drifted lower versus the buck. In fact, it’s nearly touched a 38% retracement of its most recent rally.
Ta anyway Peat,if anyone else knows of where I can get charts for these pairs that would be great,I just presume there must be charts but if someone knows for a fact that there isn't then let me know.
Peat hope your back trading and doing ok ?,eur/jpy is a great tidy pair to trade,look at the last few days,some easy pips for this game.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
EUR/NZD GBP/NZD Chart http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts.../?cmbChart=NZD
sometimes you have to hit the refreash button to get a connection after selecting a new pair
Hope this helps
Slam
...... all these sharetrader meetings ,hey why cant we have a party too ,we could have it in the back of Arco's white Bentley .
Ta slam but was after one's with the nzd first,may not be able to get them ?,anyway hope all is well in your neck of the woods.
Cheers
Miner
MINER Yahoo Finance will give you some simple ones for up to 5years. Just set up a portfoilio like NZDAUD=X then click on symbol and click on the time frame you want from selection just below chart
An interesting read from Rob Grespi of Forexbastards
Due to the recent market volatility, provoked by the sudden "subprime loan debacle", many subscribers have been interested to know my personal view on this subject, especially that it is something I have been talking about for the last 4 months. But before I go on with this little dissertation I want you to understand that I don't pretend to be an economist, I simply use "basic economics 101", which is something our financial leaders maybe should use.
Basically, when it gets to be complicated and does not make sense, chances are it isn't right. However I am convinced that they basically complicate the principles of a healthy economic logic so that the average unaware person gets lost and therefore doesn't ask any questions in fear of sounding stupid, or they just repeat what they hear on the media to sound educated during cocktail parties.
I told my subscribers in the room that the recent hasty moves from the Fed, (from several massive injections of cash into the market to the recent 1/2 point rate cut was a desperate and hasty move. This "patch the holes" moves, is rendering the market a great disservice, and it will make things a lot worse for the long term.
Basically, the Fed is adding water pump to a sinking ship, instead of fixing the holes, and eventually the ship will sink anyway, because nothing has been fixed. But I don't think they care, they need to make the masses feel better now, because they need a happy consumer to keep on buying crap.
However as harsh as it sounds and as painful as it will be (but not a politically popular move) it is a needed economic cycle, needed to purge the excess and this imbalance that have been created in order to begin a new healthy, and lasting positive economic cycle. The "band aid solution" ( "instant feel better") will only delay the inevitable and once it comes, instead of going thru a "mild and short recession" it will be a lot more painful possibly creating if not a depression but at least a SEVERE long and VERY painful recession .
This credit debacle is far more serious than most even begin to realize, and here is why I think so:
I have been talking for quite a while now (way b4 all this emerged) that we are at a critical credit and liquidity imbalance , and it goes all the way down to the low income consumer. Our consumption society as a whole is now mostly based on borrowed money, practically no one nowadays has the discipline to save his cash to buy XYZ item or a car or take a vacation. Most spend more time planning "credit vacation" than they spend planning healthy finances.
For example I have witnessed in both Europe and the US (I have lived in both continents long enough and have the advantage of knowing both very, very well) and observed consumption habits on both continents and the similarities are very scary, of course the US is by far still the "the leader of the pack".
In general I have observed that families with medium limited incomes were basically shopping on credit most of the time, either for clothes, cars, food, electronics, and vacation. During X-mass time I was amazed to see so many getting trapped in the "buy now pay later" ingenious concept of stores, not to mention store's credit cards which of course are a dangerous sucker trap. Nowadays just about everything they have in their house doesn't belong to them, but to the financing company, and that includes X-mass toys and vacation they took 2 years ago that they are still paying for, and of course expensive cars.
In my parent's days they saved for everything. But at the end whatever they had in their house was 100% paid for, their vacation was 100% paid for, and they still managed to save some hard cold cash for rainy days.
Today the people not only don't have a decent nest egg, they just don't have any, but they drive Mercedes, BMW's, have entertainment centers that would make George Lucas look like a hobo....
In my parent's days whomever was driving an expensive car (well most of the time) really could afford it and actually had money. Today I see in Europe for example, 20 year old kids making 1.500 euro/month at best driving expensive automobiles. Basically, this consumption society is completely out of whack and is imbalanced.
So when it comes to people and real estate, why are we so surprised? It is the same mentality, they have used their overpriced houses like an ATM machine, courtesy of clever and creative financing method to either make some other ludicrous over priced real estate acquisitions they can't afford (hell, they could barely afford the first one in the first place if it had not been for ("creative mortgage facility"), or buying all types of useless adult toys, not to mention extravagant home improvements or vacations.
They bought into the nonsense of these realtors and the media that real estate would go up indefinitely, these realtors, most of whom are no more than improved shoes salesmen and Tupperware housewives have been taught in an 8 hours seminar learning the cookie cutter classic economic theories why real estate will always go up. The funny thing is I hear the same logic being used in the US and in Europe. They all must attend the same 8 hours seminars, and all become economic experts at the end of it, why not!!! They have certificates of completion to prove it...And the media is basically owned and operated by the ones that want the mass to consume and spend for the benefit of some other companies they own. "The basic Asylum runs by its patients"
Now you might think what is then the relationship with subprime loan? well here it is in a nutshell: ( I will simplify the process for you):
This is what Banks, and financial institutions do (which are more worried of making short term money to obtain fat bonuses and fat executive salaries):
They borrow money in Yen (Japan has the lowest interest rate of all industrialized country) actually at almost 0 %, and they either invest in equity and debt markets around the globe (also creating a bubble on borrowed money, btw), and also they loan that borrowed money to other financial institutions that create all sort of "exotic mortgages", and "credit facility", you name it. Then some other layers of financial institutions re-package all these different forms of loans into high yield financial instruments to be parceled out and sold back to the financial institutions that had borrowed money in the first place. Basically, they are creating a gigantic credit Ponzi scheme on borrowed money with the consumer as its base for guarantee, and since the consumer himself is over extended, I don't need to tell you what will happen next.
Of course we try to find an easy typical fall guy "Wall Street" for creating all these derivative instruments, all they did is they found an opportunity and ran with it to make money.
The real "crew of culprits "are the highest and also the lowest level on the food chain, the higher ones: well, we vote for them and the mass buy into their self serving demagogic promises and speeches, the lowest one is the consumer gullible naivety, and greed.
Almost all financial experts want us to believe that whatever the fed is doing is good. Think again.
This will not save the people that are about to lose their homes, this will not save the basic overextended consumer, since most all exotic Mortgage and credit companies are closing their doors anyway, and even the conservative ones are now on "survival mode", they will not cut any slack to the overextended and delinquent consumer, on the contrary. No matter how much liquidity the FED is pouring and no matter how many times they cut rates. The surviving institutions are now in contraction mode, too busy doing damage control or even saving themselves. The only money they will loan back in the market will be to people that don't need it.
The only thing you will see will be fake "dead cat bounces" but at the end the real estate is "cooked" (actually it has been cooked for over 2 years , the masses just didn't know it yet and still don't even know it or to what extend it will be cooked). Houses that are sold today for 2 million dollars they will be lucky to get 1 million for it, and if they even get that.
Keep in mind that in the next year another $700 billion or so of "adjustable mortgage are due to reset, that is over $170 billion more than this year, and more adjustable mortgages will be reset after 2008.
This massive liquidity and credit imbalance which started over that last 20 years or so is only about to enter a severe readjustment and it has barely just begun. I just don't know how long and how it will play out, but it will play out.
Of course the Fed/government will play some of its "voodoo" economic short term magic tricks just in time to benefit some "crooked, lying, greedy, performing monkey ass politicians" election or re election, and it will make the "masses" feel better in short term, just in time to cast their vote, all this trumpeted by their favorite interested (paid off or own) accomplices "cheer leaders", the media.
Also don't forget, because it is related and will play a major role in this grand skim of things, that the US is running an unprecedented account deficit , basically in less than 8 years the current US administration have borrowed more money than any other administration put together, so if the country enters a severe recession ( which I think it will ) not only the US government does not have a "nest egg" but it has blown its wad by already overextending itself "debt wise" and in a period of decent economic time I may add, (for their own benefit btw, but that is another subject all together) .
So when we finally enter this severe recession the US government has already blown most of its "borrowing options"(during the good times), the only option it has left will be to go much deeper in debt rendering the US dollar as valuable as the pesos, the consequences of that will also be severe, and they will have to raise taxes drastically, just to pay the " bar tab" of the previous administration. So when I hear deficit don't matter they will re think that theory very soon, but of course the "fearless leaders" who left the restaurant with this "orgy tab" will be out of office by then, enjoying their pontificated retirement and collecting book deals, consulting deals, speech deals, and other corporate deals they worked out before, leaving the already over extended US taxpayers to pick up the "orgy bill" (via increased taxes) for decades to come. Hell, the US taxpayers are still paying for the S&L debacle they don't even know it, but trust me there (that was when Mr. Bush senior was VP, interestingly enough, most best S&L debacle asset that went into auctions were picked up at ridiculous bargain prices by some of Mr. Bush Senior's friends .The public was only allowed to bid for the chairs and tables and the bailout package was provided again- courtesy of the taxpayers.
Quote - DA...... all these sharetrader meetings ,hey why cant we have a party too ,we could have it in the back of Arco's white Bentley .
DA - sounds like an possible idea for the FX guys and gals to get together for a
Sunday morning coffee maybe - AKL city-Ponsonby-North Shore-suggestions?
Anyone else interested?
If so DA can perhaps start a thread
rgds - arco
i would come along if it was central ...
twould be nice to meet people.
bring your own butterfly.
is there still that cafe in high st called Fibonacci?
evening guys , count me in i've got me red carnation ready
OK - 3 so far.
Amazing name for a Cafe Peat - have you tried their fare?
Fibonacci Cafe
43 High St
Auckland Central
Auckland City
09-359 9115
Make mine a number 1618 please, with a 786 on the side.
If Miners around he might be persuaded to come along.
I popped on once to praise the name to the person there but no I never have partaken.
i'll check its status tomorrow and report back.
I'll keep an eye on your arrangements - might be able to jack up a 'visit' to Auckland....providing the exchange rate is favourable
Xerof
hey xerof , if your coming from a far then i think we can do a bit better than a coffee morning