has ATM been cleared to sell milk powder in China...seem to recall they were one that hasn,t reached registration yet
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has ATM been cleared to sell milk powder in China...seem to recall they were one that hasn,t reached registration yet
From an ongoing business perspective the pending strategy for entry into the US is more significant about here and a much bigger long term market too.
For nearly a year we waited for the working group to assess options, I went to Auckland for the AGM in November and heard that the working group were still assessing, but, it now seems that they do have a plan, we just await some form of deal to be closed and the announcement to be made.
From the February HY report: “The Company has determined to progress North America as its next growth initiative and has established a working group plan for this opportunity” – C J Cook, Chairman
My humble view is that a replication of the ATM owned processing plant in Australia would be a good model to clone on a grander larger scale for the US and Canada, but we could equally see a series of JV’s, or perhaps, with the North American market being so large with widely distributed incumbent dairy companies we could even see M&A options come into play also.
http://www.dairyreporter.com/Manufac...lk-brand-in-US
A capital raising, yes do I hope so, a nice hefty discounted rights issue to fund a new US construction oriented growth option would be my preference, whilst existing revenues streams continue to be used to expand the other growth markets. A rights issue would be a fantastic top up opportunity for shareholders about here.
Existing revenue streams are sustainably matched to and are funding the present 2016 growth targets and expansion toward them. It’s been refreshing IMHO to see a company like ATM pumping every skerrick of cash into growth rather than hoarding it or worse paying it out as dividends.
I suspect though that we may just see JV's announced for the US with joint capital funding, possibly like the UK Muller Wiseman JV, but, I wouldn't rule out a zero capital M&A deal if the board is ready and open to such a consideration at this early stage in ATM’s business plan.
http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-...eview-2012.pdf
Snapiti, below is a post from MAC posted last week. I think you will find he is fully aware that a capital raising may be needed for a big push into the US, while Australian sales and profits are funding push into UK & China.
In fact MAC is on record saying he would like to see this capital raising sooner rather than later, providing the company has a clear marketing strategy and goals. I agree with him and would also support that. After all this is a small fledgling company with aspirational goals and clear strategy to achieve them. Some of us like that.
No wonder the A1 competition in Australia are squawking, ATM success is hitting their bottom line and they cannot develop their own A2 products as the A2 Milk Company own the IP and the patents.
ATM don’t just have the first mover advantage when they enter a new market like the US, effectively the A2 Milk Company is the market.
So, when all those big US dairy companies like DFA or Kraft, even some of the multinationals too like Nestle look at Australia what they must see is ATM taking all but a 10% market share in an extraordinarily short period of time, and within a fresh milk market that has been shrinking for 10 years, and with a 50% price premium on across the counter sales.
The US and Australia are relatively similar markets, much more so than when compared to Europe. Both have large territorial dairy companies with predominantly A1 herds and thus similar uniform levels of BCM7 intolerance. Both fresh milk markets are shrinking and are under similar pressures.
When the big US companies see the A2 Milk Company heading their way, right about now, why would they all not want a piece of that A2 action. But, the only way they can get access to it, is to become the lucky joint venture partner, or, to take an ownership stake.
It’s probable that there is a heightened awareness in the US at present, not only just from all the media releases, but while Geoff and the team are presently talking to incumbents in regard to establishing herd conversions, milk processing capabilities, assigning distributors and working on forward retail agreements.
Who knows what those big US dairy companies may do, but I bet they like A2 ?
Doesn't relate to ATM directly but an interesting read;
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...-farming-model
ATM stronger today? Has the trend turned?
I'm in
Hoping that it is not a dead cat bounce:confused:. But topped up anyway.
so its gone from the micro and added to the small?
be interesting see what happens now that it closed on the uptrend line, a fall would confirm trend down a move higher confirms a false break down
Hey the other reason moose is i bought a 2 litre bottle today to test:)
Yeah I have started buying it tastes nice. But that might be after years of light blue milk because of the boss in the house wanting to be slim.
Snapiti mentioned on another thread the possibility of an A2 takeover. From A2s own front page:
"originally all dairy cows produced milk containing only the A2 type of beta-casein protein"
Snapiti says
"Only way to get your hands on this monopoly is to buy out the company."
I say:
How can a natural product be a monopoly that a company can protect? Granted the A2 brand name has real value, and is a great trademark to have. Perhaps there is some patented technology around the DNA testing that A2 use to identify the right cows? I am not familiar enough with A2 to definitively answer that.
But all a savy US corporation needs to do is to start marketing "natural all American buffalo milk", A2 under another name, and the A2 monopoly ends, as do their US prospects. To me the underlying IP is entirely in the marketing box with little food science that can't be replicated. To me 80c is far too much to pay for just a brand (albeit a very good one) that will require truckloads of new cash to reach its potential. Not saying A2 can't do it. Just saying that there are better opportunities elsewhere for investors than buying A2 shares near current levels (80c).
SNOOPY
There is nothing to stop someone selling buffalo milk of Jersey cow milk for that matter, but they cannot brand any product as being A2, they cannot test the cows or milk as being A2, and thus cannot demonstrate that any product is BCM-7 protein free without legal issue. ATM have enforced their patents successfully in the past.
Attachment 5856
Attachment 5857
Attachment 5858
Thanks for the A2 slides Mac. I now see all the patents that A2 have in Genotyping A2 animals, amongst the other IP that I wasn't fully aware of before.
My main point though still stands. I was not to seriously suggest that getting milk from buffalo is a serious threat to A2 in the United States. My point was that A1 was a genetic mutation in the first place, some five to ten thousand years ago when man was in the very early stages of farming. Animals exist that are still naturally A2. I picked on the buffalo simply because AFAIK they have never been seriously farmed by man and so are an obvious breed of 'cattle' that are likely still A2. I am not familiar enough with other bovine breeds to tell you what other A2 cattle is out there. Scottish Highland Cattle might be a more realistic example of a breed that has been more recently domesticated?
I accept all the points you have made reinforcing the strong brand protection of A2. And the likelihood that tests to determine whether particular cows are A2 also come under A2 IP and so provide an extra layer of intellectual property protection against would be A2 freeloaders.
My argument rests on the premise that A2 is the more natural beta-casein state. Thus is you have a breed of cattle that have never had the A1 mutation, there is no need to test for A1, and therefore no need to infringe any A2 patents for genotype. If a species remains such that the resulting milk is in its natural beta-casein state (dubbed A2 by A2 Milk Limited, but there is no need to call it that), then that could be a sufficient marketing message in itself.
"Quality milk unaltered by 5,000 years of the human hand"
I feel a marketing campaign coming on, that completely bypasses all of A2's IP.
SNOOPY
I would expect the a2 board and their PR people to emphasise that the A1 spin is by a PR company previously hired to sell tobacco and alcohol. No credibility.
There are two or three decades now of scientific debate now over the patenting of genetics. One outcome is generally accepted such that a gene cannot generally be patented only discovered, however, how that gene or characteristic is used in a process and/or as a brand is patentable.
Someone else may discover BCM-7 free animals, most Jersey cows are, but they would incur patent infringement in branding any product from those cows as A2, and they would incur infringement in several other areas for which ATM hold patents including the animal categorisation test process.
As much as you may wish this not to be the case Snoopy your efforts in knocking ATM are unfounded, and well just wrong, and this has been proven through legal challenge, precedence, and through nearly a decade of market application without issue in Australia, New Zealand and now in Europe and China.
Wishing for something that may knock the heads off tall poppies to your satisfaction does not make the facts disputable, but thank you for the opportunity to debate.
I've always enjoyed reading Keith Woodford articles and blogs, esp on rural issues
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/
He has been a long time supporter of and expert on A2
Goats milk is (A2). Many people drink it because they have problems digesting (A1) cows milk and may switch to A2 as it's about half the price of goats milk (a quick check of an online NZ supermarket - goats milk $4.50 per litre, A2 $4.90 for 2 litres).
So it's not just cows milk drinkers that are a target for A2.
iceman, that's the New Zealand Way.
Parmalat will wait until the first set of bad news after which the share price will hit $0.65, then offer about $0.95/share.
There will then be an independent report explaining that this is a 40% premium to the current share price.
Many who have bought in at under $0.80 will accept.
A2 can then be added to the long list of New Zealand companies bought out for far less than their true value.
Sigh. . .
This could help demand for infant formula ..
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=11264148
Interesting reading albeit most of it has been canvassed on here before http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/ne...ectid=11264151
I see that Milford Asset Mngmt have just increased their holding. They partially sold down earlier this year to take profits but now they are back in again. They must see long term prospects from here.
http://www.pura.com.au/a2protein/?state=nt
With A2's successful implementation into Australia, the big boys are starting to take action.
A2 should be thanking their competitors for the free advertising, a great way to draw customer attention to the products.
Bring on the legal action.
Lion are effectively adding both to the endorsement and to the promotion of the benefits of A2.
I suspect this might help Lion slow the drift to ATM a little, perhaps they may add a few converts from their A1 competitors whom overall form 90% of the market.
Though, the exposure they are adding within the market can only be good for the only company that can produce the 100% real thing. Even if all the milk companies promoted their products as “containing A2”, ATM would always have the marketing advantage.
The normalisation of A2 by A1 milk companies may even potentially open the door for ATM to go from being a novelty brand product with an associated cap on market share to, over time, becoming a main stay shelf product with greater market share potential.
Although, at the end of the day, if you want to buy A1 free milk then 50% free milk is not going to do it.
If you want to buy decaffeinated coffee in the supermarket whilst doing your weekly shop, you wouldn’t necessarily want to buy “coffee that contains decaffeination”, if you want to buy what you really want.
MAC I am not convinced this concerted effort by Lion and parmalat will slow A2M´s inroads into the market.
I think its great that this debate is now in mainstream and frontpage media. It increases the exposure of A2 milk and the debate about its benefits. Those that are already buying A2 milk for health reasons, whether perceived or real, will not be changing back to buy milk that only “contains” A2 protein.
That market segment that is already or is likely to be willing to buy A2 will be doing so for health benefits and will be better educated about the differences between A1 & A2 than the average person. Even if the benefit is still being debated, most people that have or suspect they have problems with A1 milk, will go with the benefit of the doubt and buy A2. Especially if it relates to their children.
It could also be argued that those that can afford to pay the extra $$$ for A2, will be more likely to do so after taking interest in this debate and studying it for themselves. Those swayed by these ads, probably never were real potential A2 customers anyway !
The good thing is that A2M is now on the big radar screens. Interesting times !
Discl.. Accumulating
But the A2 sales in China is still not good so far.
Well Milford would certainly agree Iceman having just increased their holding to 12.2%, I've been topping up too over the last couple of weeks.
I do wonder also if all this increased competitive focus has the Australian Dairy Companies both reassessing their market positions and running the numbers on takeover possibilities also.
My DCF provides me with a valuation for ATM of $1.10 (+43%). There may not be a better time for the Australians, or, for the big US Dairy Companies too for that matter given the prospective market entry exposure.
Has anyone an up to date top 20 shareholder list at their fingertips.
if the big boys are squeeling then you can be assured A2 is hurting their sales and most consumers will see their media campaign as bully tactics but there is some large sell orders on nzx which would suggest some share holders are a little worried
That's all great publicity, and it's finally forcing A2M to change its sales pitch which will really annoy the big boys in Australia and also Fonterra in NZ. In the recent past, A2M has tried to avoid confrontation with the mainstream industry by merely promoting the A2 protein as being good for you as if it were some kind of healthy additive, instead of emphasising the real point which is that A1 protein is bad for you. Now the company has had to come out and say it clearly for consumers.
That will surely worry the big boys and could even trigger some takeover thoughts, but my feeling is that a lot of A2M's shares are held by people like me who are very dedicated to the cause and know this issue has got a long way to go yet. Iceman is probably right - $5 a share would be giving it away. I'd love to see who are the main holders at present, but my guess is that quite a few will have not forgotten how Fonterra and the Food Safety Authority tried to shut A2C down in the past.
Let's remember, A2 milk sales here and in Australia are just being driven by the ANECDOTAL discovery by consumers that A2 milk is easier to digest than ordinary milk with A1. That's really almost just a side-issue. A2 Corp initially didn't even know about this beneficial aspect of their product and were even reluctant to promote it because of advertising laws. But it has proved awfully useful.
Meanwhile they're still working on the far bigger issue with A1, that it is statistically associated with heart disease and diabetes. The clinical science is gradually getting closer and closer to proving A1's actual (and probable causal) connection with these diseases as well as other major health issues such as autism and even cot deaths. That's what will really scare the mainstream industry, and quite a few NZ dairy farmers who see this are quietly switching towards A2 production already.
As for A2 formula sales to China, this is probably a temporary minor blip. Once Synlait gets its new facilities certified, A2 Platinum should be all go. The real action at the moment is still in milk in NZ-Australia, rather than formula in China, but eventually formula could be huge because according tomy reading the main age-group susceptible to the longterm health risks of A1 would seem to be up till 2 years.
Perhaps some backfire potential for Parmalat is fair, I'm erring toward agreement with you Iceman, it may well on balance become an overall net positive matter for A2 sales.
Prime time media exposure, a flourishing of the A1/A2 debate, consumers seeing through and avoiding disingenuous competitors, the A1 competition (Lion) endorsing and normalising the A2 protein proposition.
http://www.pria.com.au/priablog/is-b...sue-management
Thanks for the link to this interesting article MAC.
It is a not so veiled warning to Parmalat & Crosby Textor to not make "extravagant claims or unfair comparisons ".
This is the part I really like:
"However such an approach on its own is not only questionable in terms of effectiveness, it also smacks of desperation and failure to understand that issue management demands a lot more than just media. With A2 milk now on sale in the United States and reportedly pushing into Parmalat’s home market in Europe, a negative media strategy alone is no adequate response to strong competition and very effective marketing."
Interesting times indeed !
Another interesting point of note is that they state ATM as having a 9% market share, ATM reported they had got to 8.0% at HY14 reporting.
One would hope that reporters reporting on public relations would have sourced their facts correctly, onward, upward and on track toward, maybe ahead, of the 10% FY15 market share target.
“It’s no wonder Parmalat are getting nervous. Locally produced A2 brand has gone from zero in 2007 to 5% of Australia’s fresh milk market today. More importantly A2 now holds 9% by value of the important supermarket milk market, and is the only milk brand in the top 20 products sold by Coles and Woolworths.”
http://www.pria.com.au/priablog/is-b...sue-management
Remembered I'd read it before so searched and found a summary of a fairly recent paper published in the European Journal of Nutrition. It includes A1A2 in its study, which I assume may be of interest now with some competitors marketing milk "containing A2".
The mice didn't enjoy it as much !
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/2...une-reactions/
Thanks Ice ; that is a compelling article to me ;I've been a little sceptical on A2 and its health benefits ,..until now.
With food intolerances and allergies being all the rage I see a strong future for A2 but I have a lot of shares and I almost wish I had sold at the high and bought back in...
Decent volume of 11+million shares traded today without depressing the price {any further}. Maybe the bottom is in or Milford are still buying.
Originally posted by Joshuatree Thanks Ice ; that is a compelling article to me ;I've been a little sceptical on A2 and its health benefits ,..until now.
Yes, this article is most informative and somewhat comforting for those of us who have invested in this company, what with all the recent anti and pro comment on the a2 proposition and the assault on it from the Aussie competitors and their PR minions.
However, as an old advert man myself and now a man on the land, I would urge the management of the company not to be lulled into any false sense of security by benignly accepting that ‘any exposure (either pro or con) has got to be good!’
They should now be on the front foot IMHO with the facts (no fibs) but in a consumer friendly manner, not too much ‘high scientific’ fact. For the average consumer, the science is of little interest, it is how the product affects/benefits them that is what they want to know, and in plain, everyday language too. So, I would recommend that a major awareness campaign (not advertising) be undertaken, if not already, to every possible media entity (even all newspapers world wide regularly abound with articles extolling healthy food and beverage consumption etc) detailing the healthy/beneficial aspects of the a2 experience and the fact that for many, many people around the world, whose bodies cannot tolerate milk, a2 will hopefully/probably ‘solve the problem!’
Just look at how ‘topical’ and ‘everyday’ is the non-glutin option. In depth media articles, specialist recipes and specialist products are the norm and have you noticed the premium price these products command? The average fast food customer probably couldn’t care less whether their hamburger bun is ‘glutin-free’ but the thinking consumer who wants to live longer and happier, surely does want to know and is prepared to pay the premium prices for the products their bodies need! This is tailor-made a2 territory too isn’t it?
The ‘antagonists’ in Australia shouldn’t be ignored – sales, market share, reputation and profits are their drivers and they have might and deep pockets on their side so they are not to be underestimated. What we are seeing in Aussie will be no doubt replicated in a2’s other markets too I suspect and sooner rather than later!
There are a plethora of magazines everywhere that expound everything ‘healthy’ and it is to these entities that I would be telling the a2 story. If handled correctly, non paid advertising will result and be more readily accepted by media and customer alike, as ‘fact!’ I’m sure a2 is not contemplating an advertising campaign (I hope not) for it is not a skirmish they will win – they will be outspent and buried by the competition IMHO.
Patient fact and awareness backed up by any research in ‘plainspeak’ to the food/health media would be my approach.
I must say, for whatever the reason, I do find it incongruous that a2 has no presence in this country so recent articles in the NZ Herald and on 9 to noon on Radio NZ probably meant nothing to their respective audiences! Shame!
Quick ATM calcs
Shares on issue - approx 655 million
Required return - 7%
Current shareprice = 75c
0.75 x 0.07 x 655000000 = call it $35 mil PA profit required
YR report for period ending 31 Dec 13 has a profit of $640000, however this includes marketing costs of over $5 mil (of which over $3 mil was for new markets which eventually won't be required - and no doubt much higher than eventually required admin costs etc associated with developing the new markets) which could be knocked out to get an idea of profitability. So all other things being near enough to equal, they could easily/conservatively have turned a $5 mil profit by reducing these costs.
$35 mil required profit / $5 mil = 7 times the current situation to make the investment justified.
All the revenue (more or less) came from Australia in this report. Another words they need to replicate what has happened in Oz another six times.
Population of Australia (current market) - approx 23 mil.
Percentage of market - Approx 8%
Population of USA 318m, China 1.35 Billion, UK 63m
They've done well in Australia and I wouldn't expect them to be able to make the some in roads into China due to the obvious such as reachability and income levels etc. However I think it's fairly obvious there's probably six times the Australian situation in the US and UK alone, meaning anything sold in China balances any risk and provides upside on the 7%.
NBT
I see they have a couple of patents due to expire over the next couple of years. I know very little about patents, does anyone know if these can be renewed?
Milfords buy in at these price levels is a fairly good endorsement of the company IMHO.
NBT
Hi NextBigThing,
When it comes to the patent dates, ATM quote the earliest expiry date for each and qualifies with an explanatory note – “Earliest expiry date indicated. The actual date will vary between territories”.
A couple of the early NZ patents may have a couple of years to run, the offshore territory patents probably much longer. Plenty of time to comfortably entrench the brand internationally.
http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-...eview-2012.pdf
many regards, Mac
I’m not a patent lawyer and thus am not qualified to offer an opinion.
Although, either you could be right, or Simpson Grierson could be right, time will tell.
The IP has been subjected to an independent legal review which concluded that the portfolio is strong and well balanced to deliver commercial value in both the short and long term:
“A2C’s intellectual property is balanced across a variety of rights, with strength throughout the supply chain. Chain of title and rights are well documented, allowing a solid basis for exploitation and enforcement” - Simpson Grierson
http://aboutthea2milkcompany.com/wp-...eview-2012.pdf
Does anyone know how Milford operate, in that will they generally try and do all their buying in a short period and release a SSH notice once they've finished, or is it more of an ongoing thing?
What I'm trying to work out is are they still going to be buying or whether that might be it for a bit?
So from the following SSH notice, you're saying they bought approx 10 mil shares in one day, as opposed to buying up over a week etc
ATM 16/06/2014 15:07 SSH REL: 1507 HRS The a2 Milk Company Limited SSH: ATM: SSH - Milford Asset Management Limited Disclosure of movement of 1% or more in substantial holding or change in nature of relevant interest or both Section 23 and 24, Securities Markets Act 1988 Relevant event being disclosed: Change in nature of relevant interest Date of relevant event: 13th June 2014 To: The New Zealand Stock Exchange And: A2 Corporation Limited Date this disclosure made: 16th June 2014 Date last disclosure made: 5th June 2014 Substantial security holder(s) giving disclosure Name(s): Milford Asset Management Limited Contact details: Mark Ryland, Risk and Compliance Manager, contact: (09) 921 4746 E-mail: mryland@milfordasset.com Summary of substantial holding to which disclosure relates Class of listed voting securities: Ordinary Share Summary for: Milford Asset Management Limited For this disclosure, -- (a) total number held in class: 90,750,981 (b) total in class: 660,066,979 (c) total percentage held in class: 13.75% (note, relevant interests held by the manager as follows): Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (3.32%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), Milford Dynamic Wholesale Fund (2.44%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), NZ Equities Wholesale Fund (3.23%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), Trust Investments Sustainable NZ Share Fund (0.37%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), Waikato Community Trust (0.26%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), New Zealand Superannuation Fund (2.95%), (Custodian - New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited) Mercer Trans-Tasman Shares Trust (1.18%), (Custodian - BNP Paribas Securities Limited). For the last disclosure,-- (a) total number held in class: 80,417,812 (b) total in class: 660,066,979 (c) total percentage held in class: 12.18% (note, relevant interests held by the manager as follows): Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (3.32%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), Milford Dynamic Wholesale Fund (2.28%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), NZ Equities Wholesale Fund (2.68%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), Trust Investments Sustainable NZ Share Fund (0.31%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), Waikato Community Trust (0.21%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians), New Zealand Superannuation Fund (2.41%), (Custodian - New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited) Mercer Trans-Tasman Shares Trust (0.97%), (Custodian - BNP Paribas Securities Limited). Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure under the instructions to this form: Milford Asset Management Limited undertook the below on market transactions: [please see attachment for details of transaction] Additional information Nature of connection between substantial security holders: NA Address(es) of substantial security holder(s): Milford Asset Management Limited, Level 17, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland 1140, New Zealand. Name of any other person believed to have given, or believed to be required to give, a disclosure under the Act in relation to the securities to which this disclosure relates: NA Declaration I, Mark Ryland declare that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, the information contained in this disclosure is correct and that I am duly authorised to make this disclosure by all persons for whom it is made. End CA:00251631 For:ATM Type:SSH Time:2014-06-16 15:07:50
4 SSH changes since February, see the attachment. They are progressively purchasing.
Re 8 million bought from 5th to 13th june.There is another page there that itemises this.
Nextbigthing ......open up the full notice ...the PDF that comes with it
The details are all in there ....by day/tranasction
The announcement yesterday .....go to the last page
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/195425.pdf
lol, they seem to have cocked it up in terms of consideration for the number of shares purchased each day. NZX Discipline - large fine, public thrashing.....
I was hoping someone could shed some light on this for me please, as it makes no sense if you look at each individual transaction. For instance:
13 June 2014, Milford purchased 16,000 shares for $2,416,203.45. That equals $151 / share!
Conversely, 10 June 2014, Milford purchased 1,000,000 shares for $25,801.20.
Yet when you add up all the shares listed in the document from sales between 5 June and 13 June, and also add up the total amount of consideration, then divide them, you get an average price of 77.5 cents per share - which makes sense (if my maths is correct).
The end result of 77.5 cents a share sounds right to me but the individual transactions do not.
Thanks in advance.
bit on embarrassment eh.
I pointed it out to Mark .... clerical transpositions he said .... and hoped that nobody else would notice so he wouldn't have to refile it.
Bet he reverts to the old trick of just saying 'On market purchase of x shares for $y between now and then' instead of a copy and paste out of the system
Thanks winner, that makes sense.
Do companies at a bare minimum have to disclose the number of shares at a particular price over a particular duration, or do they just have to disclose that they now have X% of shares being Y of the total number of shares on issue?
They fill in Form 2 (like the one you see) according to how they interpret the Guidelines (to filling out Form 2)
The full PDF that Milford do showing their transactions is good practice (when they get the detail right)
However disclosures are not always about buying and selling .......but if they clearly state th events giving rise to the disclosure that's all thats needed.
I still think there should be a summary at the top for the quick readers or less bright in this world .....in simple words. Like one sentence " 'Milford has increased in shareholding in ATM from x% to y% by buying z shares on market between then and now'
13 million shares have gone through already this morning!
If it's Milford again soon they might need to change their name to A2Milford or something.
Do we know on whose behalf Milford is buying? Might it be for the Super Fund? I totally agree with the comments about how hard it is for a layperson to figure out the significance of those formal NZX notifications - there should be a plain language statement.
I'm new to this thread but have been holding ATM a long time (fortunately). Do others share my concerns about the number of shares/options that seem to have been allocated to executives etc? I'm opposed to options, bonuses etc and think that with limited exceptions remuneration should be by way of salary package. When a company is operating in several different markets with an incentive needed in each, this could get a bit out of hand.
In the last disclosure the shares were separated across seven funds. So yes part of that was the Super Fund.
Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (3.32%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Milford Dynamic Wholesale Fund (2.44%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
NZ Equities Wholesale Fund (3.23%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Trust Investments Sustainable NZ Share Fund (0.37%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Waikato Community Trust (0.26%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
New Zealand Superannuation Fund (2.95%), (Custodian - New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited)
Mercer Trans-Tasman Shares Trust (1.18%), (Custodian – BNP Paribas Securities Limited).
Shareholders approved said package limits at the last AGM in November.
I’m actually ok with the execs taking these packages, there needs to be a competitive incentive to retain, or in ATM’s case, continue growing the executive team internationally now.
Like most I think, I’ve been impressed with Geoff Babbage in bringing the company to where it is, and in just a few years. Some of the new execs do need to prove themselves a little more though, let’s give them a chance and see as it's early for some.
IMHO It’s better for shareholders in going international with the right leadership rather than with cheaper good local talent but with not the right exp. Many a company has made this mistake.
A side note... Infant formula at my local Coles supermarket has gone from $32 a tin down to $24. What may have caused such a radical drop?? Supply shortage - therefore its going out of date on the shelves? Uptake a bit slow?
You're right, in the past they haven't seemed to have purchased more than a million in one hit (excluding 1.9mil in Feb).
What do the chartists think? Support back in November was about 74c. If it hits 78c today it crosses the MA50. Is that a buy trigger?
Im a novice in T/a but that looks like the lower risk way to buy back/ in sommeller which is what I'm waiting to do Big vol too today. re 13 million million.
Looks like the babes like it Gingersteps;
http://www.productreview.com.au/p/a2...a-stage-1.html
http://www.productreview.com.au/p/a2...n-formula.html
Perhaps Coles are doing one of those down down down down things they do at present ?
Wow those a rave reviews aren't they! Its definitely not a down down discount as they are marked differently with a red tag. Its not a special either as they are marked with yellow tags. They normal white price tags that go into the plasctic tag holders have been changed so I guess its a long term price change. Perhaps price was the biggest factor in people not buying it.... Interesting to see on the product review site that the RRP is $41.50!! And if you click the "show prices" button it says $189 on ebay for sales in Asia. Wow.
Thanks for that GS, I suspect KW is right, that ATM may well be kick starting market share for platinum now in Australia by taking on the incumbents directly for a while.
Given that the Synlait plant is operating at less than full capacity this year, and not meeting its production output quota, I would not be surprised to hear that ATM might take an opportunity to increase the contracted platinum production rate too.
Hello, Police, I'd like to report a theft. Someone is stealing ATM shares at 72c.
Perhaps the crime is someone selling them at that price.
We must be getting close to receiving an investor presentation on this, hello, Geoff, Susan ?
NORTH AMERCIA MARKET ENTRY
The launch of a2™ brand fresh milk into the United States market has been under consideration for some time and is to be the next priority growth initiative. Given the UK business is now established and showing growth from a small base, the Board considers an entry plan for the USA should now be developed. The Company has strong intellectual property rights and know-how in this market and consumer research confirms the attractiveness of the A2 proposition. In addition, the industry and market dynamics are considered favourable to a market entry strategy for our product.
The plan would involve the Company establishing its activities through a wholly owned USA subsidiary and recruiting a small management team with in-market experience. As part of the development, a2™ brand milk will be showcased at a major natural foods exhibition to be held in California in March.
Any news would be nice at the moment. Going from 5% on my portfolio to -4% thanks to my large ATM holding on average 82 cent buy, brings a tear to my eye right now.
Keeping the faith for now.
I can only talk for myself but i only buy uptrending stocks, and if i buy in and it drops 4% then i have got it wrong and id rather sell out and buy back in when the trend changes. Its a simple stop loss that has saved me thousands, in my short investing time of a year.
I know it goes against what most people say but i find it works for me.
If it was still a bull market id do it differently but in this market environment i feel that tight stoplosses are the best. I have never regretted selling out at a small loss.
Kinda of in the same boat. I usually don't hold stocks I'm making a loss on got rid of mighty river power far to late and lost on it.
I've always ended up making the right calls when trading Xero, Telecom and SLI so was disappointing to to see ATM go into the red.
I think my issue was I saw ATM in the uptrend and brought to try make a quick profit then after buying decided it would be better with my RYM and SUM in my long term holdings.
Right now I'm debating whether to average down ATM, get more RYM/SUM or go AOG on the ASX.
Why average down now? It's in a slight downtrend. The same may happen. Why not wait until it's trending back up and then average down as it's going up.
Unless you really believe in the company as a long term prospect in which case buy as many as you can, a few cents won't matter...
As part of my on going research into any stock I like to talk to people who dislike the stock to get an idea of why and to see if they noticed something I've missed.
So is there anybody out there who thinks ATM isn't a great long term investment and why? What do you see as the big risks to ATM?
Snoopy I know you have previously said it's well overpriced given the current earnings (PE). However I would argue if you look at how well they've done in Australia, how much profit they could be posting and the size of the market left to penetrate (amongst other factors) then a high PE based on current earnings is justifiable.
Thanks in advance. NBT
The ATM chart had a DEATH CROSS on it the other day (50ma / 200ma), usually not a good sign and price action since supports this view.
Just thought you punters might be interested
But some punters think death crosses are BULLISH so no worries
Don't know that there is much wrong with the science as such Black Knat , my understanding was that there were just a lot more drinking it than needed to ? But whatever rocks their boat..
http://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/c...1-and-a2-milk/
Read this black knat it changed my view(thanks snapiti)