If the symmetrical triangle pattern is to be believed (and I'm not saying that it should) then this should go no lower than 59. Maybe one last lower support test before a breakout?
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If the symmetrical triangle pattern is to be believed (and I'm not saying that it should) then this should go no lower than 59. Maybe one last lower support test before a breakout?
Have rejumped on to the train, have my doubts about your symmetrical triangle ( one good news, or bad news .. will blow all that quasi intellectual charting, guess work out of the water ).. but happy to wait for the report.
so im under the impression they have to release a report by the end of this week. am I correct
Morning team! Wondering what people are hoping for / expecting to see in the report? What would people consider "bad news" or for that matter "good news"?
Affirmation of numerical guidance which I understand to be FY14 revenue USD5.0M, FY14 gross margin USD4.1M. This along with schedule confirmation of their US lab build, staff training, and ramp up, sales team roll out, I believe may cement a primary trend that may well remain in place for some time.
I would guess at this stage it would be more''getting the ducks in a row''rather than much in the way of sales figures.
[We still haven't heard a peep from Australian sales]
I would think it would be gradual market penetration.
If,however ,they won a contract with someone ,then it would be far more explosive.
Up! Down.... Up! Down...
Back at levels where I start to consider possibly buying more... Hmm, what to do.
patience people, lets not forget they are probably only reporting UP TO march. didnt get the go ahead until then anyway. Next one will be a whole lot more interesting .
Cheers :)
I'm also happy to disclose I'm a "happy holder" too Sparky. Been in for about 3 years so am in no hurry and believe the long term payoff for patience will be worth it. I'll only get a bit nervy if the SP drops below about 24c.
I've today blown the dust off the July 2011 capital raising presentation to gauge how PEB have been tracking,
- CLIA Licence was to be achieved between November 2012 and January 2013
- Launch of tests in the proposed Pennsylvania Lab was scheduled for March 2013
- First year (FY14) numerical guidance was provided. Rev US$5M & gross margin US4.1M
From announcements we already have it would seem that PEB management have largely satisfied their objectives thus far, not an easy task in consideration that their schedule has being to an extent at the mercy of US regulators, hats off to them I say, they've done well !.
The market has had a smudge under two years now to consolidate this guidance and schedule.
It would seem totally peculiar to me if some folk would have somehow imagined that any revenues could be raised prior to PEB actually opening their primary business laboratory when planned.
I'm hoping we do see an irrational SP dip, perfect opportunity to top up, I'll be in.
Hancocks, all the evidence on the diagnostic capability of CX Bladder and the size of the markets and the generally accepted notion by those that matter that CX Bladder is the best thing for patients (compared to the existing alternatives), I can't see why there wouldn't be a significant utilisation of this test - ie - sales. I mean, who wouldn't use CX Bladder and why? Who wouldn't pick up a $100 note that they stumbled upon????
In a perfect world that would be true,but there are alot of variables we probably couldnt begin to fathom.
Still,you have got to do the best with in info that you have,but keep a level head at the same time.
The irony is that the SP could suffer even with fabulous news if the outside share market takes a big hit.
Stay positive but keep the feet on the ground and always be on the lookout for potential flaws as well as the good achievements.IMHO
As a matter of interest,apparently Bill Gates makes so much money per Hr that he would actually lose money by taking the time to bend down and pick up a $100 note[especially a $NZ note]LOL
If PEB ever got to the level of ARNA at 9.00us or VVUS at 15.00us I would for one be a very happy chappie. Looking back a bit you can see that they have been around a while (1998, 2001) and the initial hughforia saw them both go to 40.00us. Suspect I may have cashed in by then if PEB did that, after all a couple of million could be quite handy. :)
Sold Arna today for a small profit. PEB (in the red still) and NEU (re even)on ASX my stocks in this sector now; considering placing half of NEU into CZD. NEU conceived by Auck University.
Certainly some selling pressure from at least two big sellers today. Will be interesting to see where this goes.
hey johnny did you get the message I sent you re PEB?
Well if I'm not mistaken, the Prelim report must released tomorrow based on the NZX rules. At worst, we get no update on what's happening in the US and sales in Aus and NZ are as expected. At best, we get a good update on the US (deals made etc) and sales in NZ and Aus are well above what was expected.
Either way, will probably keep the rollercoaster going on it's wild ride.
Any one have any clues on what this means in terms of Australia?I thought we might get a bit of news on how things were going there.
Obviously no health boards on board yet but what about other sales?
Obviously DHB's and hospitals are trying to make savings where ever they can given the constraints on government spending. But this is not confined to NZ. US health providers and insurers will also be doing the same.
Fantastic announcement this morning, cements health professional belief in the product, should provide some confidence to the market that PEB guidance for US sales is achievable.
Great news. Lots of the sellers have now disappeared. Still a prelim annual report to come today :)
That was exactly the announcement I was looking for. Partnering with a hospital as a full trial run of their test and testing facilities. If their product is as good as it appears, I expect others to follow suit.
I suspect other hospitals will be watching with baited breath...
Oh yes, plus I like the bit "Discussions are under way with another DHB..."
This is the bit I liked:
Quote:
Cxbladder, the first commercial diagnostic cancer test launched by Pacific Edge, has gained recognition for its accuracy from leading urology practices in Australia, New Zealand and the United States.
"Clinicians in all three countries are using Cxbladder as a quick, cost effective and accurate measure to identify those patients presenting with haematuria who have tumours requiring further treatment
You have to hope that the benefits of CxBladder become incredibly obvious pretty promptly otherwise this DHB is going to spend two years gathering data and then sitting down to write a report for discussion at the next board meeting about whether it is worth adopting it long term.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
*"little by little, over time the mountain is climbed" (not literal)
......PERSONALLY I PLACE THIS EXCITING NEWS WAY AHEAD OF THE OPENING OF THE US CLINIC. BASICALLY WHAT WE HAVE NOW IS GOVERNMENT ENDORSEMENT OF CX BLADDER.AND WHAT THIS WILL NOW DO FOR THE COMMERCIALIZATION OF THE PRODUCT (both here AND off-shore) CANNOT BE MEASURED. WHEN (not IF) RESULTS FLOW THROUGH (we all know those results) I would expect every DHB will be obliged (as a cost saving exercise) to climb on board. The cost savings will be so large they might be able to re-start full meals for all over-night patients!!
report is out
Its fairly unexciting. The biggest news was earlier in the day I would have thought.
Excellent result !
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Small sales will hopefully translate into big sales with the new marketing and partnership drives going on around the place. Onwards and upwards.Quote:
Sales this year have been steady but small in number and are expected to increase steadily off the back of these 'user-programs' during the coming year.
Not sure what people were expecting sales to be, but a $6,949,878 loss compared to a budgeted loss of $7,148,661 would indicate they are progressing as planned.
Since I got told of yesterday for not reading a 3 paragraph announcement I feel bad in bringing this up but:
Current year other revenue all relates to interest on cash.
However, interest on cash in the prior year is only $342 so there must be something else in 'other' to make it up to $449k
Am I missing something?
2012 Other Revenue:
Interest: $341k8
Grant: $106k7
2012 Trading Revenue:
Cxbladder Sales: $9k6
Licence Fees: $163k5
Other: $24k9
So as you can see the minimal accounts as issued today hide a lot of detail which you will thus have to wait for the final report to discover.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
It seems that the demand of this kind of products all over the world is led by the government. The adoption of new technologies is regulated by the government. The local market is strongly coordinated by the government. Cracking the government wall is indeed not so easy as cracking a peanut shell. The patients need to be patient. The shareholders need to be patient.
Masfen knew what he was doing....
I can't believe the lack of revenue, are they giving them away?
can anyone point me to decent data on forecast sales numbers, price, and net per unit return to PEB?
Very pleased to see PEB management on schedule against commitments made two years ago, this says a lot about the quality of their team to me. But they certainly seem to be stressing some by not having runs on the board, not that we should have expected any yet.
The potential of this stock remains enormous providing significant technology risk doesn't come into play. Running some numbers this afternoon I could easily see this as a $5 stock at FY16, provided PEB can meet guidance provided in there 2011 capital raising documentation.
Dej, perhaps we will see some further short term volatility as a lot is being taken on trust at present, but I largely agree with moosie, the SP won't be at these levels for long.
5:17pm, 29 Nov 2011 | HALFYR
Steady progress is being made in the market place with the uptake of the Cxbladder by clinicians and the company is working with the Canterbury District Health Board, CDHB, to get Cxbladder recognised as part of the clinical guidelines. Completion of a successful outcome with CDHB could reasonably be expected see Cxbladder readily available to urologists and approximately 400 general practitioners, (GP's) in the Canterbury region as part of the District Health Boards clinical process.
Would like to know how this is going?
I found it interesting that they specifically stated that management still expects the 200,000 tests per annum to be reached by the end of the 5th year. They have been on the ground drumming up sales for a while now, so they probably have at least some indication as to how it's going to go. I don't think they would specifically say this if they now realised that it was unrealistic.
I regret headlining the drop in year on year Trading Revenue now, seems to have made one or people a bit nervous.
Last year was made up of:
Cxbladder Sales: $9k6
Licence Fees: $163k5
Other: $24k9
for a total of $198k
This year is down all of $16k and you do not know the breakdown (of course it would help if PEB gave a bit more detail).
But strip out the other, assume licence fees are a one-off and maybe this year is direct sales and royalty payments from licence holders and you may have good growth in sales.
As for 200,000 tests in 5 years time, it is far too early to know that the target can or can not be achieved, you will just have to watch the reports as they come out.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Ha haa, I aren't nervous ...
I think the past year all concentration has been on getting the US lab up and away with the right staff in place to drive the product over there. Now that they have the staff in the US (and are handing off the growth drive to them), they can refocus into driving growth in home markets. Makes sense to me.
The BIG indicator of course will be at the end of this year. If sales are floundering at that stage, they better have some good reasons for it or the SP will be heading back south of 30c.
But my money is on their success and 200k tests per year in 5 years looks easy to me considering the number of tests conducted worldwide and the excellence of their product.
Xerof, the forward five years sales guidance is per link below, pages 27 & 28. Hope you’re sitting down if you haven’t seen these before.
PEB didn't provide FY13 guidance, I took this to mean we wouldn't have much if any. Any present sales data seems to be just noise given the big picture for this company.
enjoy & regards,
Mac
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/images/...esentation.pdf
Well it would appear CxBladder's main rival, Predictive Bioscience's Certndx, has just gone under.
From: http://www.biocentury.com/dailynews/...ve-biosciencesQuote:
The decision by a CMS contractor to deny coverage for bladder cancer diagnostics fromPredictive Biosciences Inc. (Lexington, Mass.) has caused the molecular diagnostic company to close its doors and lay off its 91 employees, CEO Pierre Cassigneul told BioCentury. He said the company is not viable in the absence of Medicare coverage, noting that Medicare represents about half of the market for Predictive's CertNDx bladder cancer diagnostic tests and many private payers mimic Medicare's coverage and reimbursement policies. Predictive's three bladder cancer tests are marketed in the U.S. as laboratory-developed tests, which are not subject to FDA approval.
In January, the Medicare contractor responsible for Ohio, where Predictive Bioscience's CLIA-certified laboratory is located, stopped paying claims for the company's tests, Cassigneul said. The contractor, CGS Administrators LLC, had previously been reimbursing about $380 per test. In April, CGS informed Predictive that resumption of coverage would be contingent on the company producing evidence of clinical utility, Cassigneul told BioCentury. He said a study to demonstrate the utility of CertNDx to predict bladder cancer recurrence could take two years to conduct, and "our investors are not willing to go further in supporting the company." CGS could not be reached for comment.
Predictive was founded in 2006 and has raised $77 million from Flybridge Capital Partners; Highland Capital Partners; Kaiser Permanente Ventures; New Enterprise Associates; and ProQuest Investments. Cassigneul said the company was "on track for $14.5 million" in 2013 revenues before losing Medicare coverage. Predictive's revenues were $1 million in 2011 and $4.2 million in 2012.
More interesting info in threads on this board: http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=701
From what I can tell, it turns out that their test was bit of a flop. I'm not certain of this though, still looking for some solid details. If they were on track for $14.5mil in sales, then I can't see Cxbladder having too many issues reaching targets if their product is as good as it claims. I guess it also points out potential risks for PEB too.
Thanks MAC, and Hancocks
I don't see any guidance figures at all, only a series of penetration % examples, which of course look spectacular at the high end. See the disclaimer 1. in the small print on page 27
I want to wait for the full report, and some commentary, and perhaps even wait a year to see a track record, before entering.
XEROF
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...oss-us-beckons
Don't think I'll sell just yet.
Interesting about Predictive Bioscience. I'm picking the difference between their product and CXBladder is that Pacific Edge have done the hard yards in terms of developing their product so they were able to provide catergory one clinical trial data. Good enough to be published in the American Journal Of Urology.
As has been mentioned previously on this thread, medical specialists can be a conservative lot, so getting the science right and providing the proper clinical evidence is essential in launching a new product. There might be some frustration regarding revenue to date, but things look to be on track to me.
All good barney. One thing that concerns me is the fact that they have this name of Pedusa. Bit too much like the mythical Medusa, the young lady with the snake encrusted bad hair day whose countenance could only be observed by using a mirror. However, upon reflection, I suppose the snake is all part of the medical symbol. Just hope it all doesn't become a near myth or a load of old cobras
and with a spare 14.5 million worth of business trying to find a home now it could get very interesting very quickly. If it turns out that PEB has blown the major US opposition out of the water at this stage with a superior test package or at least has something more suitable available then I see them becoming a benchmark in this field worldwide.
[QUOTE=barney;409943]http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...oss-us-beckons
This sounded interesting...
"Mr Darling said Cxbladder had several applications for a number of variations within diagnosing bladder cancer, and the company was in negotiations with several parties, but he was unable to identify them yet."
That was a bit of a suprise Hancocks, 25 staff already with another 14 to be hired in coming months. It just shows how much work they have been doing and how far they have come in a reasonably short time. Hats off to David Darling and co.
Looks like there might be some more announcements coming in the monthe ahead, if negotiations go as planned.
AGM on August 22nd will be an interesting affair. I think they might need a bigger venue this year.
If we were to assume similar market penetration in NZ/AUS.
Yr1: 0.005*55000/85000(total no. of tests,low/high conservative)
=275/425 (market share)
275/425*320(retail cost,NZ)=88000/136000(total sales yr1)
> actual 198000
Yr2: @ 0.02 > 352000/467500 (total sales). > Actual 182000
Yr3. @0.05 > 880000/1360000 (total sales) > 400/700% increase
The early NZ/Aus growth curve is a little different to the US curve IMHO, as PEB have been boldly attempting to sell concurrently with an R&D or pre-approvals development phase up until now.
If you or I were to sit in a senior urologists or a DHB general managers chair and spin around a few times we may very well realise that the last question we would want to receive is 'why we had committed to a CxBladder test programme that ultimately failed US regulatory approval'.
It is entirley possible that what we have been seeing in the second half of the 2013 year is health professionals waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting for CLIA approval, and now it’s been achieved it's now time for them to commit. The lull or anticipation period may be what we are seeing reflected in the local market FY13 sales figures having dropped slightly. And, sure enough we are only now, post CLIA approval, starting to see DHB's come on board.
Agree that the NZ, Australian and Spanish sales will be a nice sweetener on top of the US sales growth curve.
Ahemmm......., should any of the good folk at PEB ever read this thread, you’re most dedicated and loyal investors would like to request quarterly sales reports from here on forward, then we don't have to guess as above - many thanks.
so we need about 5mil shares then- Id better get back to work:eek2:
I've got 50k to add to that! I am totally coalesced.
Would be interesting to know if Pacific Edge will be trying to capitalise on the shut down of Predictive Biosciences. Assuming everyone that was using CertNDx still wants a product like it, then there is an easy 27,000 test p/a to be sold (Based on $500 per test and the predicted $13.5 million sales for Predictive Biosciences).
That's an interesting bit of analysis. JonnyTheHorse, have you any equally informative data on how long it took Predictive Biosciences to accumulate 27,000 test p/a ?.
Oops, they had forecast $14.5 mil in 2013 sales, so that'd be 29,000 tests. They had revenue of $1mil in 2011 and revenue of $4.2mil in 2012. It looks like people were really starting to take up the test in the last year or so. I'm not sure of the size of the sales force they had, but it makes PEB's early stage sales estimates look quite achievable and realistic (as in my view, PEB have have hired the right people and are really doing things properly).
What I'm getting out of all this is an indication that Predictive were only involved in Ohio. What about all the other states and their thousands of people who need diagnosis. Who is doing the diagnostics elsewhere and with what? Being a main competitor and only involved in one state doesn't seem to add up. The figures do though. say 30000 per state average x50 states is still under the 1,800,000 possible cases per annum from 2011 prospectus. 30000 x $500 from ohio is just above their 14,500,000 projected business for 2013. These figures are well rounded for ease of comparison.
Huge potential for PEB by the looks
Nice quote on that Cafepharama board:
http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/sho...d.php?t=532069Quote:
In an effort to spare my creditability I told all my physicians to order cxbladder from Pacific Edge. They were very thankful for me giving them this information. I feel I am not leaving them hanging.
It must be noted that the posting on that site is anonymous , so it could just be some cunning investor trying to hype us!
That wouldnt be you would it Sparky? The probability of the two words "credibility and hang or hanging " occurring together from two different sources look a tad shall we say "interesting"
A few largish orders are appearing. Must be that clown buying on market again! ;)
http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/resear...U%20112012-018
I recall David Darling saying that they hoped to have a prognostic test ready for market about a year after launching cxbladder in the US. This looks like a clinical trial for such a product.
Good find. It's a study looking at reoccurrence monitoring, whereas the last one was specifically for people presenting with gross hematuria. It is likely that the CxBladder test is exactly the same, but it is also possible that there are one or two extra markers being used.
As an aside, I found this study very interesting: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19913254
Can someone please help me with another bit of education...
I have been noticing a few days now where someone (or a collection of someones) sells about 100k of shares right on 5pm or as close to the end of trading as possible. Can someone please help me understand why this happens? That is, why do some people with large parcels of shares to sell do it right at the end of a day's trading? Is it a particular trading strategy and if so, why?
Many thanks in advance.
Insto's (and some pro traders) prefer to transact at the auctions either at open or close. This provides the zone of most liquidity, and price discovery.
nothing sinister usually, although conspirators seem to think there's more to it than that.
Then of course theres the HFT bots who trade in tiny parcels, often manipulating the closing price, but that is another conspiracy theory!