Are they working when other staff are not?
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Ross Taylor as part of an interview
Attachment 11243
I work for a Fletchers owned business. The first 2 weeks of lock-down were paid at 100% (special leave), the second 2 weeks 65%. This averages out to 80% over the first month. If the lock-down extends we go to 50% for 4 weeks then 30% for the next 4 weeks. That's the 12 week plan.
What the media fail to mention is that they have also developed an app that we can use to attribute leave days owing to use to bring our pay up to 100% if we wish. Also no pay will never drop below the governments $585 (i think) per week.
My take on the execs is they are still working so a 30% cut is more than likely higher than the cut I will receive and I'm not working!
The HR and payroll personnel are working crazy hours to try and bring this all together, but I think they've done a great job.
Personally I am feeling thankful and lucky to be in an industry where I still have a bloody job to go back to, a family member and partner worked for an airline and both lost their jobs on the same day.
Good to hear Fletchers getting something right.
Not quite the 91% paycut of the FEDEX CEO though.
Ive heard 2nd hand that Lloylds may have reasons not to pay out on the Convention centre disaster. No verification whats ever of this.
And you have no useful info to add. anyone else heard anything?
At $3.20 I figured investing would be well worth the short term gamble - however, I just couldn’t put money on a company built on sand.
No probs with that. Better watch your back you are the ultimate faker on here ,no one more similar to trump can i think of.:t_up:
I was asking if any one had heard anything.
Asked some one else today too and their thoughts were that there maybe some suspected variance between insurance payouts and what FBU have to come up with for the conference centre fire as well. But thats prob not new, i havnt followed closely.
A friendly caution to be careful about spreading or helping to spread unfounded rumours for your attention - take it whichever way you want.
I always qualify my source - reliable or otherwise.
You are free to ignore it of course but don’t stoop to personal attack on another thread away from the one on Trump.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...evel-3-pm-says
"Businesses only accessed by the staff, and without a customer function, such as building and construction or forestry could open under strict health and safety and physical distancing rules"
As expected, NZ will follow Australia in allowing building & construction activity to operate.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12325217
"Mega-comeback for $60 billion forecast for construction & building sector .... Tens of thousands of workers in New Zealand's $60 billion-a-year construction and infrastructure sectors could return later next week if the level 4 alert status is reduced to level 3, according to two sector leaders."
So the sector will not only benefit from a return to work but will get a major boost from the government - $12 billion already committed with many more billions to follow.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/bus...ovid19-carnage
"But with the Government confirming that construction will be able to resume when Level 3 begins, Fletcher Building, Metro Performance Glass and Steel & Tube are expected to pick up well."
Expect brokers to be pushing their recommendations of stocks to benefit from Level 3 in the week ahead.
Ralph Waters had zero experience in the building and construction industry. By applying what he termed basic business principles, he effected the massive turnaround of FBU in his time.
So experience in the sector is not necessarily the be all and end all of success.
Bonanza time post-lockdown for FBU.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12325841
"The amount of government support Fletcher Building is getting through the coronavirus crisis goes considerably beyond the $66.3 million in wage subsidies."
"The company won't say what proportion of its workload is government contracts, claiming that is "commercially sensitive," but it's obvious much of its Higgins subsidiary, which specialises in roading and other infrastructure, includes a hefty number of both central and local government contracts."
Etc
Etc
Up to each investor to assess really.
One thing I have learnt over the decades is that a change in top management and board takes time to effect changes in a company. Even for companies with strong underlying operations which had been mismansged.
Ralph Waters was certainly mindful of that when he took charge of the company all those years ago - sp was $1.27 when he took over as CEO.
In the meantime, market will mark time by sticking to the view that nothing is ever going to change.
I still remember that RBD was never ever going to recover after a decade of mismanagement. Sp got down to 56c and it’s largest shareholder, AMP sold out.
The rest is history.
PS. I sold out of RBD too soon with the benefit of hindsight after buying in at 60c. ;)
There are some CEOs (& leaders) out there who talk the good talk, and they talk so well & so confidently that everyone gets hoodwinked by them.
They get found out though - always a matter of time if they stay long enough.
In the case of FBU, it is inexcusable & unfanthomable that the directors were so hoodwinked by Adamson & several executives under him that they had no idea that two of FBU's key divisions were cratering into the abyss. Anyway, the debacle & sorry saga have been very well documented so let's not spend too much more time dwelling on it.
The fact that FBU is still around bears testimony imo to how profitable and well positioned the other business divisions FBU are. Backs up what Ralph Waters said all those years ago when he took over as CEO - "It has not been a difficult task to return Fletcher Building to better results because the underlying business was very sound and there was a core of competent managers."
Missing for sure is the core of competent managers but that has been fixed in the last two years by the many changes in management.
Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett both famously said that it’s smart to “invest in a business any fool can run, because someday a fool will.”
Anyway, I have seen many companies get into trouble over the decades - News Corp, Fletcher (3 times in the last 30 years!), Westpac Bank, BHP, RBD, DIL, Air NZ etc etc - as long as the underlying businesses are sound, good management can turn the businesses around.
FBU's biggest weakness has always been the ego of its CEOs to use the earnings & cash flow of its highly profitable and oligopolistic NZ operations to expand overseas.
Hugh Fletcher did it with UK Paper & expansion into Australia, Ralph Waters did it with Laminex in the US, Amatek in Australia and Jonathan Ling did it with Crane in Australia.
Adamson had the misfortune of having to manage the problematic acquisitions when he became CEO, took his eye off the ball in NZ and blew the B&I divisions up!
Parred back to NZ, FBU has always been a very profitable business.
So it's upwards imo from here for a number of years if or until FBU acquires overseas again - then, get the hell out!
Down 5% so far today,think I might tuck a few away for a long term hold
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121...g-roof--report
Sky City NZICC fire caused by an accident.
Guess there's no more scope for any doubts about the insurance claim anymore despite the roofing contractor wanting a further review of the accident (which has already been peer reviewed).
Government is certainly giving priority to the building & construction industry and to big projects to kick start after the L4 lockdown is lifted next week.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/f...ects-in-stages
Took the opportunity to invest a few as well.
Watch out for the Aussies still selling FBU down in the afternoons.
Pretty cool stuff..
Fletcher Building turns to NZ developer for contact-tracing and Covid-19 safety app
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12330520
let me assure you that FBU's various failures within their operations have nothing to do with the quality of their third party vendors. Very tough on the small operators they are. Was just talking about this with someone having to renegotiate their FBU annual contracts and FBU drove the 'everybody is doing it tough' argument hard out, and really screwed things down.
Financials are usually sorted in the first 4-5 working days of each month right. How interesting that the price has dropped $0.35 since Wednesday ($3.20 as I type), equating to some 10%. I wonder how their prospects look after closing off April and re-forecasting May and June.
Also makes me wonder if there's an announcement around the corner.
True, but if I look on the other hand on many recent announcements of infrastructure projects which happen to take now at least 6 months longer due to 5 weeks of Covid 19 level 4 shutdown (like e.g. Wellington Transmission Gully or SH1 South of Christchurch) - I would be very surprised if FBU would not have caught the fast slipping deadline virus (FSDV) as well. They have a lot of big projects going on, they have a lot of experience in delivering late and above budget and they are normally one of the first organisations catching the FSDV due to chronic mismanagement and negligible and often incompetent governance.
I recon there is a good chance the next cluster of bad news will pop up soon. Hey - we are talking about FBU after all ...
Well ... yeah.
Can't argue with FBU's track record (unless we want to try and distinguish "bad" from "abysmal").
That said, what are the odds that, sooner or later, management will adopt a radical new approach and run the business with the intent of making a profit? :eek2:
Or they can hide their mismanagement in the COVID cluster truck and get the Government to bail them out. At least that is what I am hoping as I took a small holding (against my better judgement) on the basis that surely they must get a boost out of the Government raining money on construction projects. It may not be the short term investment I was hoping for!
You are right ... I expect them as well to pick up lots of new contracts from the government. Problem is just - in the past they never did as bad as when they had lots of work .. more opportunities to screw up.
But yeah, maybe the new CEO does his magic and all the problems disappear. If this happens (I am not saying it does), then he would be one of a very small number of CEO's worth their huge salary. Time will tell.
Oliver Mander rave on FBU
Seems sort of bullish on them
https://nzherald.co.nz/business/news...ectid=12332262
Dunno about 'rave'...their history is fairly mediocre as we all know. And their complexity is awful.
But they are in the middle of a big 'fixit' job on their business, so Covid-19 might be the excuse they need to go further. Plus they have 'momentum'on their existing business change.
Who knows. Definitely a case of DYOR!!
Hey all, how can we find any information what projects and buildings Fletcher is currently working on, also where they working during lockdown at all? I'd like to see them showing some signs of productivity, they seem to keep getting hammered and i might have to average down some more...
Interesting. Just wondering based on what information and research you are investing into them, if you don't know what they are doing? Personally I prefer to invest in companies where I did this research (and no, I didn't with Fletchers).
If I would want to know what they are doing these days and what the status of their projects is I probably would stat with their web page - it does contain (though smeared over many pages) the names of most of their big projects. A web research on the individual names will give you the status of these projects.
Here would be a start for some of their top infrastructure projects:
https://www.fletcherconstruction.co....infrastructure
But obviously there is more.
Have fun ... and let us know what you have learned when you are finished, will you?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...228/322681.pdf
Maybe these guys have done the research for us ?
This is one long dismal story
If you want to stay happy don’t read
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...360/322838.pdf
30% decline in residential construction going forward wow and as previous mentioned companies would use the wage subsidy as a window to make people redundant
So is Fletcher going to tank again today? This is one of the worst 'stocks' ever... always bad PR and people seem to hate them, now Covid 19 is going to hit them big!?
Still gonna hold my shares though... :cool:
It might actually go up a bit, market loves cost cutting measures especially those fixed costs around head count, just as many other companies are doing SKC, STU to mention a few. Surprised to note though that Aus revenue was around 90% pre-covid level in Apr and zilch in NZ.
If share price tanks on open it be a good buy at 10.10am
Excuse or reason? Maybe a bit of each but Fletchers is not the only employer sending workers to the Jobseeker benefit. Just a very big one.
A predicted 30% cancellation of already issued residential building consents will hit developers and the construction sector very hard. We will have to see how that works out over the next few months, but to be sure Fletchers has taken into account government tipping cash into the sector. Cash announced or not yet public as Fletchers will have been closely involved in government discussions.
We have a social welfare mindset Labour government - it's all about control and people needing the government to make decisions for them. Hence, the most restrictive lockdown in the world (self-acknowledged by Cindy) rather than trust that NZers can operate businesses in a safe manner.
So quickly we forget how it was like with Helen Clark - total control & social engineering on a grand scale until she was turfed out for wanting to regulate even shower heads!
Fletcher gets into trouble just about every ten years and NZers love to put the boot in, deservedly so because the company gets fat, lazy & arrogant with the CEO pursuing their egoistic offshore expansions.
Great opportunity to get back in and ride the upside - which has happened each time but maybe, this time is different! :eek2:
Not to worry Balance. Minister Robertson reckons it will be growth in the economy that pays back the rather large borrowing, not increased taxes. While that is good news for the fast shrinking number of net taxpayers, how many actually believe it?
Even if they do believe, perhaps they don't realise how fluid capital is. As France found out to its cost, and NZX will be watching nervously to see how many successful companies decamp for greener pastures.
It really just seems you enjoy politicking under the guise of a rational discussion, your contempt of any Labour led government is poorly hidden and your posts on this topic really carry little weight given their lack of balance and objectivity.
We get it, you dislike this government and are perhaps not favourable to female leadership but really the broken record routine is well....broken.
I would rather have travelled the road we have been on than the Swedish social experiment that on a comparable population basis would have us today at a death toll of 1796 people. Life is precious and unlike reviveable economies once dead always dead.
Hindsight will be a wonderful thing.
Yup - as expected, compare with the worse rather than the best. Why is it that The Australian government can trust their building & construction sector to operate in a safe manner but not NZ?
Why is it that they can trust their hardware & DIY stores to open but not NZ?
Why is it that they can trust their restaurants to deliver takeaway foods but not NZ?
So typical of those who have no ambition beyond being second class and third best.
One word about Cindy & her government - Kiwibuild.
Have you actually done the numbers of infections and deaths per capita, Panda-NZ?
And you need to read more - Australia has been receiving praise as well from similar sources. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/21/australias-leader-is-winning-argument-coronavirus/
Don’t be a frog in a coconut shell - go out and see the world. Or in this case, open up your mind rather than see the world through your star dusted tunnel vision glasses - no doubt given to you by Cindy.
God help NZ if you think NZ is the best. Just like the ABs thought they were the best and the world media wrote them as the best. Well, they did not even qualify for the final - beaten but a second rate team.
It will be a big deal if it persists. If we maintain zero new cases and their outbreak continues to smoulder away, we will be able to unlock more completely, earlier. Like I said, time will tell, but both countries are doing very well compared to most similar countries.
the fact the FBU is laying off 1000 NZers speaks as to the cost of the lockdown.
Like Balance I reckon that cost could have been avoided, but no one knows for sure and contrary to previous poster I dont think time will tell conclusively.
So, will construction builds expected to go down or up in the future? Should they keep people on they don't need? :\
Mmmm nice opportunity coming up at $3 a pop.
I really am surprised that FBU kicked off $3-20 a week ago with the news at that time , I had picked it to go sub $3-00, may be with yesterdays business update I was a little premature, Im still picking that it will be sub $3-00 before too long , not a down ramp just my thoughts!
All those years of terrible mismanagement coming back to haunt FBU. Absolute disgrace.
I think some of the impending downside (which was confirmed yesterday) was already factored into the price pre-announcement, as investors have learned to expect the worst with FBU. You could still very much be right about sub $3. There's plenty of time between now and the next GOOD announcement for that to happen.
Where do you think this bottoms out. $2.90?
The old fletcher's. Still stuck in the 90s huh Balance? This has been a dog for many years now. They coudln't even profit off the last building boom, so imagine how badly they're going to do in a downturn.
I genuinely feel bad for people who own shares in this business :(
It’s not cool to go calling people, the “worst investors ever” as he did in the Plexure forum.. just because you are interest in Fletcher.. (I own some as it’s very good value by the way).
It’s all good! I just joined this forum to enjoy like minded people in NZ chatting and sharing ideas and knowledge.. not to see snarky bullsh*t that you’d find on Stocktwits..
Please take your personal grievances offline.
One question I've been pondering for a while now is, what do we really think is the long term profitability of Fletchers.
Attachment 11625
The trend statement attached is from the 2019 annual report. Two profitable entities, Formica and RTG have been sold so their EBIT needs to be removed from the comparisons ($65- $75m).
So when you consider reduced forecasted construction activity for the foreseeable future, the above point on sold entities, some struggling businesses in Building Products division and Australia, where does that final NPAT number come to, and assuming legacy construction projects are closed off without any further changes to provisions? How about $250m, which gives them a fair market value of $2.5b aka $3 a share.
Anyone care to correct me? I really just don't know what the right approach is to value them.
Putting on nice gains today, one or two big boys seem to be building stake by the looks of it..
Huge volumes in the end of May readjustments for FBU. $290m (83m shares) traded today. With a market cap of $2.89b that's 10% of the company!! The 5-year direct broking chart indicates no other day has been above 15m shares so this is way bigger than normal, even for the end of month/quarter readjustments. I wonder if its just insto's doing their readjustments on steriods or something more interesting?
Thank you - I missed page 63 of this thread. I hope you managed to set yourself up for gains from the reindexing. That explains the volume. The price movement (up) is interesting. Of the companies listed above the changes today were:
FBU Up 7c
NZR Down 3c
SKT Up 0.4c (but the capital raise is probably a bigger influence)
THL Up 3c (but again changing covid-19 impact thinking is possibly a bigger impact)
OCA Up 5c (And interestingly little commentary on that thread about this happening today!!)
NPH Up 18c