Yep - I'm just really comfortable owning this stock.
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Yep - I'm just really comfortable owning this stock.
Sellers have just dried up below $3.70
Looks like were heading for that $4 mark once end of year financials are out,Ryman trending down over last few days (see my thoughts on that over at last comment on Rym thread) what I'm really enjoying is for every cent Sum goes up I get an extra $1500 on the unrealized profit column so very happy
Looking forward to postive results, everything historically has been tracking along well. I sold my portion at 3.600, played around with Wynard, now purchased back in for the long haul.
A good Idea to hold this stock. If you hold it long enough you will be able to afford to retire into one of their villages.:t_up:
NIce graphs, especially when compared to the Green line. What website are they from?
The 3 month one is influenced by the drop in RYM in the last few days, ignore that and RYM was even. Therefore a bit harsh to judge just on that - they cant be 100% positively correlated. One does have to wonder if being in an international index is effect RYM as Couta suggests. It will be interesting to see how they compare (add MET in there too) going forward.
Disc: happy to be holding all three in roughly equal amounts, especially when looking at the green line. It has been an outstanding sector.
Thanks Turmeric for the charts. I checked the ft.com site. They do some pretty good comparative charts. You can produce a chart with sum, met and rym plus the NZX50. They have a 5 year max though. I would attach screen caps here but I am not sure if I would be breaching their ToS. Interesting to see that over 5 years, even MET's returns exceed the NZX50.
IMHO Sums growth outstripping Ryman will be solely Dependant on the Aussie expansion success or not,if Ryman are successful in Aussie then the compounding factor comes into play which will drive growth exponentially but this comes with cautions because although success may appear just that don't forget that true running costs of operating in Aussie won't be known until the care centers are fully operational and with all the extra costs with compliances and higher pay rates and union involvement etc it will take a year or two to see if all of this will affect bottom line profit,if it does it may turn out that their NZ operation ends up subsidizing the Aussie one,but because of where Sum is at in its growth curve and with what its got lined up I'm predicting you'll get more return from Sum than Rym in 2014
Forgot to mention that Sums divvy should increase this year also
See my post #1897 on Rym thread to check out how progress in Aussie going,I personally believe Rym will succeed in Aussie they are well researched savvy operators but the question remains will that success add to or take away from their NZ success in terms of bottom line profit and annual growth rate?
Couldn't resist with the trusty old linear regression channels - both RYM ans SUM have been perfectly behaved for a long period of time
Since July 2012 RYM shareprice been increasing at 1.04% per week (or 5 trading days) while since Jan 2012 SUM has been increasing at 0.95% per week
Sum been at it longer (that is within a rising channel) but RYM has slightly the higher rate of increase but both a re pretty healthy over an extended period of time.
I see no reason to sell either or to rebalance between the two
There are things going for each that the other has. I think that RYM will always be seen to be 'overvalued' compared to the 'undervalued' SUM. As such until some bad news from either or external shocks that will affect both both will continue their steady rises - at about the same rate. The trend / numbers are saying this.
Nice work winner but I don't think the graphs allow for the fact that Sum has only recently started lining all its ducks up with its large strategically placed land bank,in house design and having been considerably undervalued until recently compared to Rym,of course both are excellent choices
Agree all good things happening
Maybe these things were needed to keep the trend going, a bit of renewed momentum - the trend was getting a bit weak wasn't it
Maybe these things will be the start of a new steeper uptrend ....even steeper than 1% a week
Maybe the worlds markets will collapse in the next few months (May maybe) and all shareprices willfall(to give future buying opportunities)
Who knows what will happen
I'll be topping up on the upcoming news, hope the above doesn't happen!!
Bless you Winner..I believe I have posted in the past that this is all surreal...no share price escalation goes on for ever..despite that logically it should....like if it were so simple then buying shares would be a no brainer ????...like elderly care shares and make a fortune yes....so far all good...but life is not like that...do any of us remember BIL RJI baycorp...THL....so what am I saying ..not sure but winner you are right...."who knows what will happen "....yes I hold MET RYM SUM...and am happy...but honestly folks the party aint going to last for ever...it never has....troy
I do sincerely hope not Couta, what I total disappointment it would be for a great company like SUM, still in a solid enduring growth phase, to constrain what their growth rate could be by distributing larger dividends.
I'd much prefer they instead nudged the 2015 target build rate of 300units/year forward a little, IMHO that would be in the better interests of long term SUM investors.
The FY12 dividend was $5.4M, compared with $72.2M invested in new villages, I know it's a coarse assessment but the build rate could have been circa 7.5% higher.
Was able to increase my holding from 2000 to 5500 today and hopefully will be able to top up another 2k soon. Lets see if I get 3rd time unlucky and SUM goes into a downtrend after i buy =( highly doubt it but I feel cursed sometimes.
Anyway I agree with MAC hopefully they keep the divi small and reinvest in new villages or increasing their land bank even further.
Just a wild guess.
I think they will increase the dividend by 50% to 3.75c.
February last year the share price was about $2.50 with a 2.5c dividend. SUM has gone up about 50% since then, so 3.75c dividend is my prediction.
Hi troy and a happy new year to you
Yes we are in surreal times .....I only do these charts to track trades and to let me know when to start looking to sell. The RYM and SUM and the DLX charts are 'surreal' examples of just holding and watching. The DIL chart was a great example of staying until the trend changes.
Trend theory says that a primary trend stays in place until things (either stock related or external) happen to change that trend. For Rym and Sum I think it more likely external factors will be the thing that changes that the trend, something like a general market correction.
I have this filed away to remind me time and again why the trend is your friend. It is from an article on Dow Theory -
Many traders and investors get hung up on price and time targets. The reality of the situation is that nobody knows where and when the primary trend will end. The objective of Dow theory is to utilize what we do know, not to haphazardly guess about what we don't know. Through a set of guidelines, Dow theory enables investors to identify the primary trend and invest accordingly. Trying to predict the length and the duration of the trend is an exercise in futility. Hamilton and Dow were mainly interested in catching the big moves of the primary trend. Success, according to Hamilton and Dow, is measured by the ability to identify the primary trend and stay with it.
As you say troy this cant go on forever. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rym at 5 bucks something and Sum at 2 bucks something in the future. If so i will have sold and the current charts become irrelevant, they would have done their job and probably new charts will need to start with new trends.
Yes ...who knows what may happen next ..the charts don't predict that
Troy nice to hear from you again - God bless
Happy New Year Share Trader readers. Great to see SUM doing well and heading North at a smooth rate. The up and coming results will be favorable and I imagine all those SUM employees who get SUM shares included in their employee incentives package will be ensuring that this year results and next years are results to be stoked about. Good luck to all the investors out there this year. Hope 2014 is a positive one for you. Remember to enjoy life when and while you can, you never know when a quick change will happen. Cheers
Going below the line is a signal to (consider) selling. discipline or ill discipline that decision becomes subjective, mainly because I hate being trigger happy. In RYM case when it went below the most it went below was 11 cents so a bit of wait and see stopped the selling.....the ill discipline bit is when do you actually sell then.
Different stddev to make the channels best fit with the price action .....in theory the channel lines need to contain all prices in the trend - ie line up the highs and/or lows (but not necessary both. On the SUM chart the prices are above the upper channel line - I just being lazy and not changing the std dev to make them all fit.
When can we expect the next announcement from SUM?
Of course. The next announcement was always going to be an SSH by ACC.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/246350
I wondered what was affecting the price yesterday.
Looks like they've made a typo in the announcement. The % holding has changed but the number of shares has not.
Retirement sector taking a bit of a downward slide in the last while reasons?
ACC confident about the announcement?
Sorry Mrjeems, not sure what you mean there.
There's also a rather sad story about a Canadian rest home in the Herlad this morning. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=11191345
I wouldn't think this would have an impact, but you never know. The volumes aren't big.
Am i reading the SSH wrong (have i been reading all SSH's wrong?)
For this disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 7,127,653
(b) Total in class: 83,776,155
(c) Total percentage held in class: 8.508%
For last disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 7,977,963
(b) Total in class: 83,776,155
(c) Total percentage held in class: 9.523%
Does this not infer they have sold DIL?
We could be seeing a nice top up opportunity here right before the full year, softness in the Chinese economy doesn't affect Summerset's business at all, not one little bit, the respectful oldies just keep doing what they do, as do the good SUM folk working hard in the villages.
I would have thought that softness in the Chinese economy is relevant for SUM as it would be to the NZ economy as a whole. Simply put a bad or worsening Chinese economy will mean less income internationally. Given the highly leveraged NZ property market, this would result in a more than proportionately softer NZ property market. The retiring folk would have less money to buy into a retirement village.
So the Dating credit rating agency is hardly followed outside of China,business as usual after a small blip,keep building those units
I mean Dagong,these predictive spelling tablets are a pain
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...w-on-Summerset
FB rated SUM a hold. I find it interesting that the centres take a while to reach profitability. I would have thought that given the demand they would be largely filled by the time construction was completed. Pre sales are usually a major component of any development. At least they are "well positioned".
Great buying opportunity here today for those who have some spare money,get them while you can:cool:
You never know with the brokers which stocks they are flipping for clients at any particular time also, international or domestic.
What has been overlooked by Forsythe Barr, in their article at least, is the sales and marketing advantage Summerset have over the competition with their long standing position as the award winning market leader in the sector.
It may not be as hard to fill these new villages as some may think.
How low do people see SUM going this time? sub 3.20 by last double-bottom or around 3.35 via upward trend? (Not sure if i'm doing this charting thing right, be happy for any corrections/suggestions/advice!)
Attachment 5398
Hi there
I'm new to this share trading game, but I have experience in data analysis for scientific time series data.
One thing I've noticed in clip's plot as well as the plots on Direct Broking that I think is strange is that you plot moving average to the end of the sampling window, whereas in my work I always plot it to the middle of the window. Thus, the MA calculated for today in a 30 day window would register at 15 days before today.
Plotting it to the end of the window means that peaks and troughs are displaced from when the actual peaks and troughs occurred.
That's likely because it is using the default settings of 5/10 day MA's, I did not increase it as I normally would when using a 6 month sample size - Was only looking at the SP line in the above chart to draw the lines over it. (Again I am new to this as well so not sure if what I have done is correct or accurate :) )
Nice try, but the price drop is not specific to Summerset. Its a general mini-panic, fuelled by herd mentality. Nothing has changed for Summerset, which has been undervalued for far too long, so I doubt it will drop much further and will be one of the first to recover. IMHO>
At last .....SUM outperforming RYM today ...at least % wise
Hopefully people are selling because of a general downturn and not like sheeple because a broking company thinks its going to cost a little more to get care centers up and running,why do they think that the care centers are built after the independent units are built and sold? Cash flow of course,accounting 101 here
If I may be forgiven for being a little bold, their release did seem to ring a little of timely bias also, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear they have a client ready to buy the dip.
Only Forsyth Barr would attempt to spin a view that an increase in build rate from 200 to 300 in 2015 is somehow bad news.
As an addendum;
If in four week’s time SUM report an entirely unlikely drop in gross margins due to the new villages not being adequately utilised or not yet productive, as Forsyth Barr suggest, I shall print this post out and eat it, someone do remind me.
Forsyth Barr...Promoted Credit Sails CDO's to elderly retired investors as a safe investment... resulting in a multi million dollar settlement with clients based on grossly misleading sales tactics.
Forsyth Barr Promoted Feltex to its clients as a strong buy.
Forsyth Barr couldn't help get their hands very dirty in the South Canterbury Finance fiasco.
Forsyth Barr consistently underperform year after year in the compartive stock picking stakes with their competitor stockbroking firms.
I used to deal with them years ago... My opinion is they have very little credibility as a firm.
More interested in what ACC are doing to be honest...buying at $3.50 and selling at $3.66 recently suggests anything outside that range is an opportunity.
Perhaps investment companies such as Forsyth Barr have helped to depress the price in the short term with their re-ratings. If that is the case, then perhaps we should be thanking them for creating such a buying opportunity for us?
As far as how far SUM will fall, it is almost impossible to predict so I don't even bother to try. Given the strong sales announced and the great long-term track record of the company, I'm continuing to buy on the current weakness. A risk yes, but relatively low IMO and after all, risk is what this game is all about.
Well said its amazing how gullible people are as they hold companies like FB in oracle status,great buying op for those with some money,ACC will be back in for more soon for another trade for some quick profit soon as we all anticipate the upcoming results for the year,interesting FB say accumulate Ryman and hold Sum I think the reverse should apply IMHO
The article regurgitated on Stuff this morning - actually this is worded even more strongly.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...-for-investors
Does anybody else find the line of reasoning flimsy? They're essentially saying I better sell up because SUM is expanding their operation.
Forsyth Barr - SUM would not build if there wasn't a demand. I suspect they are better placed to make this assumption than you are. Also, brand new units seem to appeal to the retirement folk I know.
As far as minimum wage rises go, this is just another thing management will handle carefully. Some cost may have to be passed onto the residents, but I suggest this won't impact demand for Summerset units.
If you applied Forsyth Barr's reasoning to other companies you wouldn't invest in anything. I for one back SUM management over Forsyth Barr.
I look at it this way, if that is absolutely the best Forsyth Barr can come up with as a means of knocking the stock down so their clients get a good short term buy, then Summerset is doing really very very well as a going concern.
DISC: Downgrade of Forsth Barr to Morningstar status.
Its really annoying when these so called experts talk so much crap,the demand is massive and ever increasing and we all no that except FB of course,as for the minimum wage issue that case is far from becoming law at this point in time and the likes of Sum and Rym are well able to take this in their stride as opposed to the smaller companies and not for profits,this will have zero impact on building new units or reselling existing ones
Normally I would be horrified to see an article like this and the resulting declining shareprice. However this time all I can think about is at what point I will grab another chunk of these. FB produced no concrete information imho that would point to SUM not being consistently and quietly successful.
How about some of those numbers;
Net margins have been improving steadily for SUM since the IPO as the company has become self-sustaining, this does actually of course incorporate all those opening and ramping costs of new villages as they have come along.
The build rates have increased in that time from 100, to 150, to 200 and the goal is for 300 units/year in 2015, who knows beyond that. We haven’t seen a drop in margins Mr Forsyth Barr due to that ramp rate acceleration, in fact margins are going up really rather quickly!
As the fleet of villages continues to expand net margins will continue to improve, my estimate for the February report is for a net margin of 62.5%.
It is easy to forget that it is still relatively early days for SUM compared to the more mature RYM and MET companies and that the SUM business is much earlier in its growth phase and is also on a much steeper curve.
It’s all in the future for SUM, there is a lot of forward growth potential for this company.
Attachment 5401
Nice chart mac and impressive trend
Can't quite reconcile the numbers - how do you define Net Margin
Ok but some would use the Total Income line and not the Total Revenue line as the denominator, assuming this is what you have done.
Problems with using such ratios on these typos of companies. Never mind as long you are consistent it shows a good trend. If fair value number is really high you could even get over 100%,
Forsyth barr are correct that hospital services do not make money for a start But they do give a complete package and will well justify the position Summerset have taken over the medium /long term
Nearly down to its 50 day MA. If it drops below, I maybe tempted to top up.
Good to see FB re-assessing their view and position of a couple of weeks ago,
Summerset appeared to be hitting all its goals in terms of new developments in the retirement village sector.
"The key with them is how their margins are doing and whether they are achieving them."
Summerset is also on Forsyth Barr's list of 10 companies which it expects to have earnings per share growth in excess of 20 per cent.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11198168
Now they’ve seen the light, ........, they’re forgiven;
DISC: Reinstatement of Forsyth Barr from Morningstar status
Summerset appeared to be hitting all its goals in terms of new developments in the retirement village sector.
"The key with them is how their margins are doing and whether they are achieving them."
That bit is actually from Brad Gordon of Macquarie Wealth
The Forbar bit is later on in the article
Another downgrade for FB?
I suspect the price has been battered as a result of some investors/traders heading towards other most fashionable stocks as of late. Picked up a few more this morning, looking forward to the results in March.
SUM seems to be looking quite good at this point being fundamentally sound, not that I dabble too much in the TA side, but I did buy a few this morning on behalf of a family member, couldn’t resist buying a dip smack on the primary trendline. Looking forward to the FY on the 25th.
Youroosie_900;461152]MAC you have done well. SUM is at an ebb right now and is a definite buy within the $3.30-$3.35 range based on past oscillationsand charts. Will look great in 3-4 weeks, mark my words.
disc - not holding but looking seriously at buying on the usual weakness. History repeats, repeats, repeats... :)[/QUOTE]
You wont see $3.30 IMHO, she upward from here,strong buy signal Moosie,i might have bought a few more but all my funds are tied up over at sub ground Xro:cool:
Gee, I hope the phrase "great minds think alike" is valid, as I bought in at the open as well. Got tired of waiting at 337 yesterday, so pulled the order, but got them at 335 in the auction.
I’m revisiting today Summerset's long term forecasts including build rate of course;
http://www.summerset.co.nz/assets/In...h-site.sml.pdf
“The company is on track to deliver its IPO forecast of 155 retirement units in the 2012
financial year and now plans to build at least 200 retirement units in the 2013 financial year.“
“Summerset has also upgraded its longer term build rate indicating it is targeting to build 300 retirement units per annum by the 2015 financial year”.
It’s a subtle distinction, ‘in’ versus ‘by’.
I’m just interested in gauging how the market may have treated and absorbed this advice, either way a 50% increase in build rate over the next couple of years is both notable and impressive enough.
Have you interpreted this target as being ;
As delivering 300 units per annum in (during) the FY15 year, or,
As delivering 300 units per annum by (the start) of FY15 ?
If I had written this I would have been meaning 300 units in/during FY15
Corporate speak I use/hear/read BY usually means that year
If it is by some chance meaning FY14 (ie by FY15) you would have thought they would have said 300 in FY14 .... sounds a lot more impressive than by FY15
Agree, and I’ve only found one confirmation buried deep in the FY12 report;
“This strengthening of development processes along with additional banking facilities from our banking syndicate has seen us upgrade our projected build rate to 300 retirement units per annum by the end of the 2015 financial year”.
This suggests that over the next two years the growth rate for SUM is roughly going to be;
Build Growth Rate = (50/200) = 25% pa, good enough.
That’s just growth in new build of course, it's a couple of years of occupancy later that we see high re-sales and turnover.
At 4Q13 the YOY growth rate in re-sales was 64.5% reflecting a surge in turnover from the previous step increase in build rate in 2011.
I see this re-sale rate remaining at higher levels going forward reflecting the acceleration in build rate over the last couple of years
Onward and upward.
Edit: let's respectfully not forget that re-sale turnover to we investors is also respectfully our seniors moving on.
A 10 page brochure in the NZHearld today drumming up buyers for Hobsonville and Karaka.
I have to apologise - I just topped up a bit, hence why it has decided to fall even further. At this price it is a steal so where are the buyers?
hmm... should I wait.. or pounce on this opportunity...
hmm... should I wait.. or pounce on this opportunity...
It is a very peculier dip today given we are likely to see 50% plus in earnings growth in less than two weeks time, I can't help but wonder if it's a correlation thing with RYM breaking down.
A question for the TA’s;
If fundamentally RYM is likely to go flat for a while and SUM is ready for a re-rating to the upside, how to those that just buy and sell the sector correlation resolve this ?
IMHO its just a spin off from Rymans downturn as it may have run a bit ahead of itself,your see the reverse affect occurring upon Sums results,didn't think it would go to or below $3.30 though,great buying for those with spare money,see what happens tomorrow,maybe it will be Mets turn for a drop?