I prefer to stay with attractive consumer related stocks having their major uptrend intact. Commodity stocks also can give some moderate return when they have some technical rebound.
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I prefer to stay with attractive consumer related stocks having their major uptrend intact. Commodity stocks also can give some moderate return when they have some technical rebound.
Percentage Gain / Loss
SP High SP Now $ + / - % + / -DOW $18351.000 $15973.000 -$2378.000 -13%S&P500 13 Feb $2134.000 $1864.000 -$270.000 -13%NASDAQ 13 Feb $5231.000 $4337.000 -$894.000 -17%NYSE 13 Feb $11254.000 $9029.000 -$2225.000 -20%Russell 2000 13 Feb $12.960 $9.537 -$3.423 -26%Shanghai 13 Feb $5176.000 $2763.000 -$2413.000 -47%Gold 13 Feb $1920.180 $1246.510 -$673.670 -35%NZX50 13 Feb $6324.000 $5933.000 -$391.000 -6%
Nice comparison on markets and gold. Actually, NZ market has done well.
I believe end of 2016 or beginning of next year, we can get some clue for bear market in some markets. There are some short term weak supports for GOLD. Still gold prices should go down in 2016/17. Oil should average around $35 in 2016/17. Oil cannot stay below $30 for a long period.
DOW also can rebound to certain level. If it can pass 19,000 it might ended up breaking 20,000 and 21000 as well.
Can strength of the Dow Jones Transportation Average send DOW much higher? Divergences indicate a possible change in trend. It is time to pay close attention to DOW transports as well.
I don't think anything has changed MW. The only thing I would say is that the bear market or recession perhaps has been so well telegraphed that it then may not be as bad as it might have been. I've shorted the DOW & Brent again, been a good trade to date, but I'm aware the DOW hasn't broken down either.
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................
Update of my 25 Jan 2016 post:
My above commentary says it all...
Note:..16500 resistance line becoming a strong area + Fib 38.2% (support?/resistance? ..within the margin of error) + EMA50 (resistance) = conjunction area...
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2018022016.png
Will the Fed move or won't it? Will it tighten or loosen? The mystery deepens!
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKCN0VS2OQ
I believe the market has already factored in fed rate hike. Am I right?
Billionaires are starting to bottom fish in some stocks. Seth Klarman, gorge Soros, David Tepper, Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett all either added more or initiated new stakes in stocks. Situations where good funds are doubling on stocks are bullish. Gathering in stocks and sectors by good hedge funds is bullish.
We will wait and see.
This potential Honeywell merger isn't helping my DOW short!
You should be happier today Daytr....
DOW squeezed passed the strengthening 16500 resistance yesterday (giving the investor bulls some hope) only to fail at the next resistance today, the MA50 line at 16600...
Failing at significant resistances is a typical bear market rally signature therefore adding another confirmation that the DOW is operating in a bear tide.
DOW currently at 16420 -199 -1.21%
Yeah I did pretty well, shorted DOW, Oil & long gold a few days back. Got out a little early but still did very well.
I was/am very wary being short growth with the G20 looming.
Expecting to see a rally prior G20 that gets disappointed post.
Well we have seen the G20 rally and it looks like its already starting to fade.
Used the outside break to re-short Brent & the DOW.
Suddenly, DOW 17,000 is in sight. It is going to be very interesting month next month. Oil should average around $35/38 in 2016/17. Oil cannot stay below $28 for a long period.
I think we now see the DOW pushed back down post G20. No real traction from the meeting and more talk around risk of a Brexit.
It is going to take 10 years to extricate itself from the EU. Brexit has both positive and negative implications. Overall, it won’t make big difference. UK might build new economic alliances with other regions as well which include the USA, New Zealand, South Korea and Australia.
It doesn't really matter what you or I think, its the market perception that counts & the perception is a Brexit would have massive implications for the UK, Europe and global growth .
Wow big risk on night! Funny gold was surging prior, and then growth assets took off. I had some small shorts in place that got knocked out, only to be reset closer to the highs. I'm not a believer in this rally, but I respect it. If oil is allowed to go higher still then we will see a continuation of the rally.
I suggest this is a sucker rally and things will turn rather quickly to the negative again. But perhaps I'm the sucker.
No No you are not the sucker..
You use the strategy given to you by the market (you play the cards that Mr Market deals to you)...When in a bear market cycle, you use bear market strategies when in bull market cycle you use Bull Market strategies..
The most common and very efficient Bull Market Strategy is the simple Buy and Hold method..Because a Bull market lasts a long time (av4years) most use Long Term Buy and Hold Strategy.
Bear Market Strategies are not simple some are complex and require Education and skills..
The DOW is not yet officially in a Bear Market Cycle..Some of Us ( I included) think this bear tide is stage 1 Bear Market Cycle Phase which has been abnormally long..that length of time is disconcerting..which makes some wonder if the market weakness is due to a sleeping bull...Alternating strategies on the emotional highs and lows of the Market tends an investor to create mistiming problems, causes doubt, a loss of confidence, self blame..
Bulls are back. If everything goes well Dow could pass 18,000 and 19,000 and could expect some of the active months in April and May in stock markets globally. Coming months are very crucial.
http://fortune.com/2016/03/04/dow-jones-17000-2/
Dow Climbs Back Above 17,000
Yes the bulls are doing well.... gone past the 17000/17200 road block zone after a little pause to recognize the resistances..and today it tested the breakout (17200) before the FED news. That bounce off the 17200 strengthens that new support.
The next test is the 4.5 month Primary down trend line currently at 17470.....This downtrend line (17470) is one of the big milestones, above it is the first confirmation (1st of 2) that this 2 month weakness is a bull market correction and not a bear down wave..
Before one puts their party hat back on... 2 things
1....Even though this milestone is close (<1%) The Dow still has to get above this confirmation point
2....The Bollinger Bands are tightening suggesting a near future change of trend (end of the rally) and/or change of acceleration.
Dow closed at 17325 +74 +0.43% with the news that the FED is softening its rate increase stance by holding rates steady and only seeing 2 rate hikes this year now
Yes Hoop you are right.
Madam Chair Yellen is very intelligent. She knows how to act and take decisions (with her team) according to the situation after taking consideration of the most important economic factors in the world. Fed’s decision will bring some stability not only to the USA but also to other countries including emerging and frontier countries. As I said before some stocks should break their 52 weeks high and their life time high again globally specially undervalued stocks having strong earning outlook.I think fed might raise rate most probably in 2017 than in 2016.
US indices are well over valued considering the economic backdrop. The fact that the Fed is being so careful on rates says not all is ok.
Bubbles on bubbles caused by free money.
Sorry I'm a fundamentalist at heart and there is something very, very wrong with the global economic picture in my view.
Not saying you can trade to it, but I do like how gold has been behaving.
Dow smashed 17500 and it turned positive for 2016 as well. Whatever the reason, global markets are bouncing back after yearly low in February 2016. It is true stocks can go higher and higher in bull markets still it is better not to become too greedy or too optimistic. Globally, money is simply flowing from one bearish sector into the bullish ones. We could see some sort of rotation as well. In short, it is wise to stay with stocks which can beat both bull and bear. Currently, USA stocks are leading. We should see bullish trend while having some volatility in global stocks markets which include emerging and frontier markets. As I said before year of 2016 is going to be another year of opportunity for disciplined and patient investors. They already got some great opportunity during last two months.
Certainly is an impressive run-up, plowing through resistance at every point for the past 5 weeks. Will be interesting to see if that shallow down trend resistance line holds next week. Everything looking toppy right here.
Attachment 7941
Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?
Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (Bulkowski). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..
Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..
VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period
** 14% / √12 = 3.46%
Time for a reality check?
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazona...ar_18_2016.pdf
Seems we're of the few who take notice at the moment, while the majority are relishing in the invincible NZX (good on them, make hay while it shines), but DOW has made a remarkable run, previous few days topping patterns, today slamming into resistance at the 176XX trend line. Currently futures are off the pace pointing to a breather. I have ST support at 17400-17300, or if the formation breaks 17000, 16750. A break above 176XX and 17970 (100%retrace) is in play with the all time high above that. MA's seem to have no bearing on price performance at the moment.
Attachment 7952
Could be the end, of the up trend? Whole up-move is on declining volume, RSI over bought turnover, STO turnover, money flow looking OK. Respect of the descending trend line looks like a top is in however falling through the steep rising pennant and back test to previous support suggests some life in this yet, as of Friday. I reckon it'll have another go at the descending trend line from the high before anything significant happens. Either way, it's close now.
Hoop said - VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period
Bugger - unlikely to see a new all time high then in next month ....but could get pretty close
DOW made a clean breakout and close above the descending trend line resistance, now support. Refer previous chart. Target 17977 being 100% retrace of the Nov 3 2015 high. Impressive, especially if it continues up to test the all time high 18351 19 May 2015. Other big US indices are a bit behind DOW's recovery but trending in the same direction.
Yes. DOW has taken the lead in the USA. Markets from the USA to Asia pacific region have become somewhat active now.
Should be an interesting week coming up, after 5 days of price weakness but the Golden Cross (50EMA crossed up through the 200MA) suggests otherwise. Indicators have all turned over, could be a top is in with the DOW after the past few weeks of stellar performance.
Attachment 7967
DOW is getting closer to 18,000.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marketnewsvideo/2016/04/13/dow-movers-vz-jpm-2/#4bce88057243
Dow Movers: VZ, JPM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/18/inve...000/index.html
Wild ride: Dow tops 18,000 for first time since last July
Technicians seem to be doubting their tea leaves
Twiggs also : On the fourteenth he said "I remain wary of this rally but will heed Jesse Livermore's advice: never argue with the tape", but more recently said "I remain wary of the current state of the global economy and will continue on the defensive. This is not a classic bull market.
Me too!
I see an enormous W
Attachment 7991
Believe the chart eh?
A classic looking W double bottom pattern (bullish), nice down-trend line breakout-up and currently testing the Neckline resistance, with a weekly close just above at 18003 (significant?). Pattern probability suggests a breakout-up of the neckline here would go easily to the all time high.
On the doubt side, all indicators diverging, not a good sign. Outside the chart, reflecting on the US economy, and who is actually buying (and selling) this rally, it's no wonder the doubt creeps in. It looks so toppy (price) and unstable (indicators).
Attachment 7992
dyodd
@peat in as much as the double bottom reversal shows, the pattern has been bullish forming a W, rising to the neckline. Whether that can breakout-up is another matter, you may be right that it goes bear here.
Here's an update on the table I posted 22 Feb, now including 23 Apr and the Change. Sure has been bullish for the US and NZ equities indexes, though not so for Gold.
Attachment 7993
It is interesting to see DOW is holding 18,000 despite Microsoft’s fall.
Don't let the W shape alter your perceptions it is this shape at the moment..charts are full of w actions both during uptrends and downtrends but most go unnoticed as they are insignificant.. many are just continuation events which really sums up the prediction outcomes of W movements..
When an "can't miss seeing" pronounced W happens all shorts of predictions pop up in the media, many look to the revision mirror and see sharp W corrections and an optimist sees a sharp rally extending through to new highs or a pessimist sees an impending crash when the W shape is played out..
There isn't much info on W but there is some recognition that the big w is a chart pattern, strangely the big w has a much lower middle rally point so really it should be called small w as people refer to a big w as a capital W which in the alphabet has a high middle rally point...
Why isn't a W recognised widely as a chart pattern is strange..one answer from me could be that the W are really other patterns such as a formed double bottom (bullish pattern) or a triple tops (bearish pattern) still in progress..so you can see how different investors can take different predictive views...
While the right hand side W was still forming ...this last DOW rally had a doubtful rising wedge pattern (S&P500 pronounced pattern) ..This sharp uptrend ended about a month ago (downward breakout of the rising wedge, but..against many TAers it has kept going up abeit in a much slowing upward rounding type trend to this present day full W shape...
Although I'm in the long term bear camp (still am)..Arfter the rising wedge break I actually thought this slowing trend to flat line or possible slow declining trend may play out over the following month (19th March to 19th April) and did not think a crash would happen for the following month up to 19th April 2016
This little prediction turned out nicely for me as most still favoured either a another sharp fall/crash or a continuation of a rapid uptrend to smash through resistances to new record highs and even higher within a couples of weeks...
My belief is still the same.. I'm been very amazed and impressed by Wall St resilience against most odds..but..Until I see a record high (above the margin of error) I will still view the DOW as being in a Bear Market Cycle (stage 1) not a sleeping bull,,therefore view any rally as a sucker rally and therefore I will always be cautious...Remember sucker rallies are notorious as they can suck in the best of us into thinking the worst is over..that's why they call it sucker rally..They are rare but I have seen a full retracement including a small record high sucker rally..
Equally as interesting is the massive upside gains in some of the DOW30 stocks, for example Caterpillar gained over twice as much % as MSFT lost. Have a look ... http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/ Makes you wonder who's selling and who's buying. Plenty of speculation lately about that.
Yes. It is also very interesting.
Next week will be the busiest week for earnings. Some of the stocks to watch are DuPont, GE, CAT, IBM, MCD, JPM, VX, WMT and UTX.
It is kind of rotational bull market that we are going to see in global stocks markets in 2016. It should be value stocks over growth stocks.
My next target for DOW is 18500 after this earnings season. Hope that earnings will not disappoint us.
Which of those companies is not buying back their own shares? And of those who are, which are using debt to buy back? This I think is at the nub of the capital appreciation and needs to be understood as to whether the US equities rise in recent times is sustainable. Conversely, who is selling to the buyers? Are they China, Canada, Europe .. unloading their vast holdings of US equities, into the last desperate phase of a market appreciation? Intriguing times these are, and those immediately ahead of us. It all looks very fragile to me.
Good observation Baa Baa. Stock prices can go up or down due to more than one reasons. Some want to support their own shares. Not only some of the most sophisticated investors but also private equity firms were buying back their own shares.
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/303762...ed-bull-market
Have central banks restarted bull market?
Thanks, good article. Great line about the head wanting to buy but the discipline preventing it.
These two I found interesting as well:
Who the Heck Is Buying the US Stocks that Chinese and other Foreign Investors Are Massively Dumping? http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/19/who...ively-dumping/
This Also Happened the Last 2 Times before Stocks Crashed http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/18/fin...arket-crashes/
Thank you for some valuable links. We can clearly see notable rising trend for USD despite selling US bonds and stocks.
How about high frequency trading,formula trading, algorithmic trading and fund trading? They also can move stock indexes and futures market at least for the short run. Fundamentals are very weak for grain. However we saw sudden spike in commodity futures recently and now they are tumbling again. What cash markets are doing is the opposite of futures.
Who were the big soybean and grain buyers? Funds have been participating with derivative trading, plus futures trades along with Over the Counter trading. Large fund traders have become smarter.
Over the past seven years China has become a centre of economic attention. When China buys or sells, their large transactions also affect markets. There is a talk, at some point they will sell 15 percent of their stockpiled corn.
AT some point we should see bear market. In other words over valued Assets should readjust at some point. Value stocks should outperform growth stocks in 2016.
Batten down the hatches me hearties, there's a storm brewing
Central banks still have plenty of oil to pour on troubled waters. If successful they should destroy cashed up investors like myself before risk takers and borrowers are affected. I keep getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again only to have them dashed time after time.
Central banks still have plenty of oil to pour on troubled waters...for an increasing number of commentators the central banks continued meddling is their fear...
Having a Low interest rates and easy monetary policy period for too long breeds lazy inefficient investing..This school of thought which was pooh poohed years ago is gaining some renewed popularity.
..getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again...Aaron are you implying now is a good investment opportunity time?
In early 2007 the DOW was around 14000 and the Earnings/share peaked at about $85 (S&P500 value) which is about the same as now (($90ish/S&P500 share), except the DOW is now at 18000.. Hmmm.. If I can remember correctly, after the crash in 2008, everyone agreed how overvalued the DOW was in 2007...It's wonderful with hindsight...ehh
Apologies Aaron..it seems I got lost in translation :p:confused:
Sorry..I thought you mean't today prices had opportunities similar to those opportunities back in 2009...
All good Hoop.
I like Stanley Drickenmiller here is his current advice.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druck...-own-gold.html
I also like how he points out that current seniors are ripping off the young and yet to be born generations in the US. I imagine we have parallels in NZ. (see his youtube clips)
Also he points out easy money and low interest rates are designed to boost the stockmarket to create the "wealth effect" but in reality it is mostly helping the wealthy. A bit like "trickle down" and other dumb theories that have proven to be bull****.
@RBAdvisors: .@ICI: $8B outflow from equity funds last week.$8B into bond funds. Rates must be going up soon.
What do you think about following?
According to Bond-fund manager Bill Gross“Interest rates will stay low for longer, asset prices will continue to be artificially high.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...e-easing-views
Gross Sees QE4 Ahead as Citi Says Investors Revive Easing Views
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ashing-bankers
Gross Sees Helicopter Cash for Economies From Central Banks
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/bill-...ock-picks.html
Bill Gross picks... stocks!
Wrote this in the 19th March and since then the DOW has ranged traded around 17450 - 18100 .... ~3.5%...nice:)...except 14% ÷ √12 = 4.04% not 3.46% Ha!!! :D..no one pick it up as wrong ..but it was close enough.
Recently the VIX has broken out of its 13-16 range and now around 21..
This indicates the DOW and S&P500 are going to be more volatile (21 ÷ √12 = 6.06%) within the next 21 days. (VIX broke out 10 days ago)
A 6% swing would present a breakout of the DOWs present trading range (17450 - 18100) ...a breakout would cause other market physics variables to come into play so the % rise or fall could end up being a lot more than ±6%..
On the DOW chart the Bollinger Bands are presently squeezed so a change of trend direction in the near future is indicated....For the last 3 months the DOW has been trendless, so the Million Dollar question.."Is the DOW going to go up and create another record high or down?"..
Trendless price lines on charts make TA indicators unreliable so Charting giving 50/50 odds isn't really much help ....In the media (as usual) we have the optimist chartists producing the indicators that only show upwards and the pessimistic chartists producing the indicators that show the downwards..
Brexit results tomorrow..so.. will the market rally or has it already bought the rumour and ready to sell the fact..
Bollinger bands snapped...its down folks.. big time..
The DOW futures fell over 700 and has since recovered about 300 of that 700 and stablising...the recovery is back above the broken bull/bear support line at around the 19th May intraday low of 17331 and close of 17435...so if the DOW can hold above that bull/bear line (17435) then the bulls are still in control and the DOW not totally TA broken
Opportunity I would suggest. I bought the FTSE when was down 9%, got a 5% bounce & closed out. Got long the DOW after a pull back. Think the doom and gloom over Brexit is completely overstated. Obviously interest rates now stay low for longer and perhaps even lower than now. Equities more attractive. Mainland European indices I think are far more vulnerable than the UK or US.
Still bulls are alive and well. Next target is 19,000.
This is the top!
https://image-store.slidesharecdn.co...-original.jpeg
:cool:
Well one thing that does normally foretell a top is thin trading & that's certainly what we are seeing. The Microsoft result was pretty stellar so probably extended the run a little.
Sell in May and go away ......so thy say
Thats why volumes are light?
But going to cost heaps more to buy back in October
Volumes are light because few companies posted stellar results, those that did were (just) enough to continue the index. Nothing about old wives tales or sayings, this is a toppy market with very few standout performers holding it up. VIX should tell the story soon enough, imo. Ripe for a plucking, have you checked the balance of shorts?
A weekly Bollinger would be nice, sipping on a glass of fine bubbly, but from a chart perspective the Bollinger bands are a key indicator. Any time the price moves towards and then away from the 2.5 standard deviations which are the upper and lower Bollinger bands, is time to take notice. DOW weekly takes a lot of the daily noise out, though this week it decided to pull away from the upper Bollinger band. This portends a topping with sideways and possibly downside to follow, perhaps a back test of the all time high breakouts. It is a caution signal. Don't ignore the Bollinger bands, they are very helpful indicators of highs and lows.
Attachment 8182
Easy Money... Gurufocus post arrived in my email this morning...here is the website address. http://www.gurufocus.com/news/429977/how-much-do-interest-rates-affect-the-markets-pe-ratio.
Ben Reynolds seems knowledgeable as he mentions (since 1971)...because before that, interest rates did not correlate with the Equity Market.
..therefore theoretically, interest rates is not a primary driver of the sharemarket....inflation is..It is important for sharemarket investors to remember their Theory as some time in the future when the FED (for reasons not yet known) may have to look towards other methods to smooth out (manipulate) market/economy volatility (gravitate away from Monetary Policy), when that happens the interest rate factor driving todays sharemarket may become less significant.
Haven't read his other work yet but it is here
Every chance of the Dow hitting some crazy numbers this year. Large tech stocks are powering ahead Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet & Facebook - some impressive results over the past few days. New highs for Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook. Was sweating a little on Amazon's numbers (you never know how spectacular the result will be) ... but very happy with the end result and nice gain after some shorters bailed in extended trading.
Even non tech stocks like J & J, Honeywell etc doing well and other super powered conglomerates
Financials and retailers (in general other than online like Amazon) will be the biggest drag on the DOW and this really because the margins are so low
and Im not a bear on the Dow
Bear
Who would know from a fundamental perspective? That has been screwed for many years, decades even, with economic theories all going to hell and monetary policy makers desperately trying to find ways to prop up economies and at the same time hide the incomprehensible sovereign debt overhang as a consequence. Better minds than mine can grapple with that.
In the meantime, TA shows that last weeks breakout from all time highs stumbled at weeks end, then followed through this week including yesterday a back test of the breakout. Fortunately for the bulls that test was positive and current price is still hovering above the previous all time high. Tonight (NZ time) will be interesting though as it does look like there's a slow leak in the DOW which is testing the bulls confidence.
Might be worthwhile looking into the the DOW shorts, from a historical perspective, where are they now and what is the shorts consensus position? This helps to to identify the short sell overhang who are anticipating (hoping) for a breakdown in the DOW because they make their money when it all turns to custard.
BaaBaa quote..."Who would know from a fundamental perspective? That has been screwed for many years, decades even, with economic theories all going to hell...."
To bring the DOW into total perspective forget the economy and all the BS, smoke screens, and mirrors.... Investors have been discussing/arguing that for decades if not for centuries.......Think simple, think secular.
Back in 2006 the question was asked "Where do you think we're headed? The author had a good idea the DOW was entering two decades of slow share price growth...At the time the US economy was entering a boom..With that hindsight 10 years later we know the author was right..
OK..next question...Lets ask the same one now.."Where do you think we're headed? :D
http://www.ifa.bz/wp-content/uploads...ones_chart.jpg
Nice chart, it says invest in the DOW anytime you like and in less than 25 years you'll be doing fine (on a historical basis) but in 100 years from now you'll be in clover. But I'll be pushing up daisies well before the 100 year windfall, maybe even before the 25 year. Sigh.
Interesting interpretation though that a bull market only begins when the highs of the previous bull market are exceeded. Basically it just says buy and wait. And hope you live long enough.
After the Brexit dip a rosy record breaking rally occurred..Reported earnings has dampened the euphoria a bit.
Some media are starting to bang the bear drums again....then along comes this interesting chart pattern..a possible continuation pattern...if the breakout is upward then we may see 20,000 in quick time...
Who cares what the fundamentals says when you have Janet and maybe Mr Trump at the helm..eh?...
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2004082016.png
Update...Today saw all 3 Wall St indices breakout to another record high
DOW chart below
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2011082016.png
Still DOW is unstoppable. My only worrying part is we don’t see rich valuation in some stocks. It is going to be one of the longest rally. It is possible to touch 19,000. However, it can touch even 20,000 according to the following link. Only time will tell us the true story.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...ast-2016-08-10
They will ensure the 'wave' keeps going at least until Hilary is elected - she is the symbolic face of a 'recovering economy' (measured by dodgy job numbers and never-ending adjustments to quarterly GDP numbers) which ensure the money go round keeps going round
But one day .......
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stoc...pple-1.3763837
Apple shares hit 2016 high, bolstering Dow
Following the recent new highs, impressive, but then breakdown below the old high, DOW finds support on the steep high/low trend line. Will it hold? 17,100 says no. 18,350 retest old high says yes. 18,000 is the now battle line.
Weekly chart
Attachment 8309
Zooming in to the Daily chart
Attachment 8308
Yes Baa Baa 18000 is going to be battle line. I completely agree with you.
Support levels loom 18,000 for bullish traders to buy the dip. I believe bullish traders or investors will get some position near 18,000. My medium term target remains to the upside towards 19000 and it can stretch close to 20000.
Analysts have raised their price targets for Dow stocks in recent months because they expect earnings growth in the first six months of 2017.Dow could climb on the strength of a few key stocks and sectors.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/...get-dow-20000/
DOW pulled back perfectly Sept 22 from a test of the falling ST resistance down-trend line. Now it's either on the Feb-Jun rising support trend line (arithmetic scale), or broke down through that same support trend line (log scale). 18,000 support in play again.
Everybody has their own forecasts. We have to stay with our own estimation.
According to following link DOW should touch around 19000 by February or March 2017.
http://longforecast.com/stock/dow-jones-forecast.html
DOW JONES FORECAST FOR 2016 AND 2017
http://www.fxempire.com/indices/dj-30/forecast
Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 Forecast
There is a possibility that DOW can break 18,000. At least it should reach closer to it.
Had a dream run with all this pre-election volatility. Tripled my investment in the last month mostly trading the DOW, Gold, GPB & AUD/NZD cross.
Went big on the DOW twice around the lows in the last few weeks only to see big rallies including last night.
I'm now out except for a small posi in AUD/NZD & WTI.
Clinton wins we see another rally to sell into.
Trump wins, will stay clear until the dust settles.
Either way I don't see too much upside in these markets.