I believe there will be a writedown of Goodwill that the market does not expect.
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No news is good news, if final results fall into their guidance then shares will worth more than current level.
Mmmmh, s/p back above 60 DMA on BIG vol, looking promising ; says he reaching for the anti hex bottle.
My first NZX purchase in a long lonnnggggg time .... ST hold
trading through 30-60 day MA
Overall NZX bores me to tears ....but hoping this trade will spike my interest once again
[IMG]https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2015-07/12/17/enhanced/webdr07/anigif_enhanced-26515-1436735211-2.gif?downsize=715:*&output-format=auto&output-quality=auto[/IMG]
Thanks 777 ; still haven't sussed out this basic tool:ohmy:
Has this woofer with feathers turned around???...
Disc:.. hold none
It climbed 11 cents before the last report too and we all know how that went. I'm optimistic, but I'm not expecting a stellar report. My predictions are 34 - 36 million NPAT, with 10% or so NPAT growth predicted in the next year.
I'm keen to hear more about exporting progress.
Dividend wise maybe another 4 cents?
Happy with the market close good solid support ..another 2017 divie be brilliant .. to drive towards my sell price>>>>>
Without realising, I have found myself in a rather large position in TGH averaging around 107, the rebound off the markets overreaction was blatantly obvious last month, unsure why so many were poopooing the idea.
Looking forward to lower end of guidance... 4c dividend and a conservative forecast this time round.
Good on you Hardt (And sincerely meant).
You should not make the assumptions however that the rebound is sustainable (until it really is).
Also, investors have choice to invest and you will find this revealing (I believe you also have the stock) - I found myself for example with a rather large position in another stock (knowingly) and there is no contest which stock I prefer to be in.
One has not disappointed the market, consistently delivers and is on a solid international growth path. The other has disappointed the market, been frugal with the truth and has limited growth upside.
Choose between ATM and TGH - no contest.
2,800,000 went through at 117 at 1110 so there is some confidence out there.
But someone just bought them at 117 who have confidence. ..
That is the beauty of the sharemarket. For every buyer, there must be a seller. For every seller, there must be a buyer.
I agree whenever there is a market meltdown commentators say everyones selling but any number are buying!
"For every buyer, there must be a seller."
In this case the market maker?
If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
Depends on how many supplejack are holding it up and if they can, its a maul; very noisy:t_up:
Actually, share prices move on the day depending on where the balance of buying and selling resides.
More sellers than buyers, price goes down.
More buyers than sellers, price goes up.
Punters like to comfort themselves when prices are falling that for every seller, there's a buyer. Actually true but sellers have to move down to meet buyers' price and vice versa.
Yep Balance...These comfort punters should google "buyers market"....anyway for now at least TGH market have changed to a sellers market..
The price has moved from its 1.05 bottom to today at 1.21 which happens to be part of the bear/bull resistance zone price (1.21 is the closing day resistance line)...Going above this 1.21 line one should exercise caution for the margin of error as the intraday resistance line is at 1.23)...So a price above 1.23 indicates a higher high and puts a check on the downtrend and puts the bear on notice (chartwise a strong buy signal)..If the price fails to break though the 1.21/1.23 resistance and falls away, it marks the end of another sucker rally and one should expect the downtrend to continue and the price to revisit and put pressure on the 1.05 bottom..
Currently at 1.22
Disc: on watchlist
Really though Hoop it all depends on the annoucement on Tuesday doesn't it. A good result and trend upward will continue, a bad result and it will go back down. People are taking positions at the moment expecting a fairly solid result in line with guidance. It completely depends on the result where this goes.
I suspect market expects a result at the bottom end of the forecast - and in the absence of a downgrade to date, I agree TGH will most likely deliver towards bottom end of forecast (Ogden resigning is indicative of that).
The outlook is what is critical - abatement of competition and discounting, export market growth and payment of dividend from cashflow rather than debt.
Yes that is what concerns me. I've certainly noticed the clean break up through the 100 day MA like a lot of others have but...Ogden wouldn't have resigned without very good reason I would have thought, so maybe some people are counting their chickens before they've hatched ? One things for sure, although some people recently buying at $1.07 might be feeling a little clucky, poor beleaguered IPO investors sure aren't !
Its just that chickens (due to their rubberiness) bounce higher than cats.
I already have 30% of my net worth ( of my short life's work ) in ATM, I'm not comfortable with putting anything more down, no matter how well I have done with them so far.
Quants on Tegel are solid, disregard the previous overly optimistic forecasting and just look at the numbers, explosive growth is never going to be available in a #1 market leader in NZ... Organic growth domestically and moderate export growth including a well above market dividend is all there.
Very much looking forward to the results next week, as previously stated the 105-110 entry opened up a 20-30% upside in the couple months. If the results land anywhere in the wide forecast.
Either way, it was a solid pick that many took advantage of early with very little downside in my opinion ( uncertainty breeds bargains ).
Tegel was due for rebound after slide in their stock prices. There is a value in chicken. Did Forsyth Barr upgrade to outperform in April 2017? I think so. Long term fundamentals are intact barring they don’t see any strong competition.
Last time there was a rebound back up to the long term trend was in Dec 16 and I don't think I need to tell you what happened next.
Simply the original prob was an increase in volumes in the industry by the main producers esp Inghams and Tegel. The mkt wasn't big enough to cope hence a glut. All their feed is imported and global feed is in oversupply hence cheap; this is what started the ramp up.. Global demand for chicken is good however atm due to bird diseases etc, overseas.If tegel has ramped up its exports that will be helpful.
Its also thought by some that Tegels estimates re sales and profits were exaggerated in the IPO by the Sellers.
Promotors originally were talking $2.50 for the IPO float. This could give some investors a clue as to their greed. Greed usually manifests itself in others ways too...like creative forecasting and in some cases attempts to bend the GAAP rules around reporting to artificially inflate one years results to make things look better / head off any potential litigation against the promotors creative forecasting.
You would hope that the veracity of a thorough audit would sort any and all of these issues out thoroughly wouldn't you...but consider this...all those audits of finance company books during the GFC could really be completly relied upon to detect fraud, error and deliberate corporate malfeasance couldn't they and the finance company Trustee's did such a "wonderful" job protecting investors money didn't they ! Something smell's a little "off' in the kitchen which is probably why Mr Ogden jumped ship.
Roger the tainter; classic very smelly piece.:t_up:
http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultr...st-meat-soars/
NZ Appetite for Chicken Breast Meat Soars
There is shortage in lamb meat. There is a shortage of lamb exports from Australia and NZ. Lamb prices are rising. Beef prices are solid and consistent but with the dairy payout picking up, cull cow numbers are expected to drop. Therefore, cheap chicken will have more demand globally in the coming months. 2017/18 is going to be another chicken year globally as well as in New Zealand. Today, I visited one meat shop and I hardly found any lamb meat there. So far New Zealand lamb has performed strongly for the last six months. New Zealand is the world's largest exporter of lamb meat. A drop in lamb slaughter rates in New Zealand has pushed up prices to multi-year highs in export markets.
All cyclical - farmers cut back lamb production in response to low prices in previous years, prices go up due to lower supply and guess what happens? Farmers cut back supply even further as they rebuild stock numbers, accentuating the supply shortage situation! Lamb prices move from high to low in a 3 year cycle. Beef prices are only back to their average over the last 7 years.
Chicken prices certainly look really good internationally. However, New Zealanders have always paid a huge premium over prices in other countries. Go to Asia and chickens are cheap as.
Consumption growth > Glut
Not true, Hardt.
Why prices have been under pressure.
Agree with you however that if consumption can continue to grow, price dynamics will change.
Those in the industry will tell you however that there are huge production facilities coming through in both NZ and Australia.
If supply outpaces growing demand then you still just end up with lower prices. Inputs and Outputs in business tend to be lagging factors and don't actually react instantly, put that along with management who are adamant that the situation will change and there is no end to the supply, but there is limited number of people in NZ and amount that can be exported. Just like the stand off between oil suppliers not too long ago, no one would back off until everyone was suffering detriment, though unlike oil these chicken producers aren't gonna hold meetings to talk about this one.
Glut GLUT GLUT cluck cluck. Thats why production went over the top. Glut GLUt Cluck. About the 4 th year of bargain grain.
Grains piled on runways, parking lots, fields amid global glut | Reuters
Finally, it is showing some positive momentum and currently it is trading around $1.21. Tegel Group Holdings has a significantly low debt on its balance sheet. Long term investors should study their financial soundness.
52 week 1.05 - 1.80
If you remember, this higher share price would have been associated with a smaller number of shares being issued for the same total share of the company. The range of total value being offered was $299-344 million. To quote the share price offered in isolation is at best misleading.
Yes,and pretty irrelevant to the price that is being offered now anyways:eek2:.Still in the red holding a few but i sold majority after IPO at a loss and bought AIR:)
I found another interesting link.
https://claytonnewsreview.com/taking...-shares/63412/
There are four analysts are covering in the current year and two have recommend as buy. If I am correct even Forsythe Barr Upgraded to OUTPERFORM in April 2017. They expect better year in 2018 according to following link. Is it a good price to buy now?
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/T...lysts?p=TGH.NZ
Please note that I don’t have any shares of Tegel but I am following eagerly it now.
Sold my trade for small profit on friday .....@1.21 .....be interesting to see if it retraces to purchase price
Dropped by 4.5% ahead of results. What will happen tomorrow is anyones guess. There'll be suprises in store I'm sure.
Yes dropped right away to the close ... glad I took my trade ..not to greedy (for once!!!!)
Could well be a smart BUY on the close
No matter which way it goes there will be a gap come tomorrow morning.
So will it be chicken breasts, chicken heads or the bishop nose today?
I see some souls bailing out yesterday ahead of the results today - do they know something (insider trading stuff) or are they simply nervous despite all the bravado talk?
34.2 million NPAT and 4.10 cent dividend. Growth expected next year. In line with my expectations. Pretty happy overall and expect a decent day ahead of trading.
Pretty classy presentation
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/260622.pdf
Pity they mentioned the PFI numbers ....but that's all dusted and forgotten eh
So sell 7k tonnes more chicken for increased sales of $31m but Gross Profit down $2.3m because the cost of sales were up $34m. I thought feed was cheap as at the moment.
So pricing not the only thing affecting margins
Just as well (as some say) the local pricing issues are easing. So F18 better prices will feed straight through to the bottom line ...that's good, might offset the costs side
A pretty much expected result without any surprises.
Solid result nonetheless... 4.1c dividend is great, getting more book for your buck is always a good thing too... Still dirt cheap going forward IMHO, opinions change and so do operating metrics...
Fully imputed too, not bad. I would of liked to hear more about the domestic market and pricing - but seems soft pricing will be around in FY18 too (albeit starting to ease)
I think punters at the moment aren't attracted to Tegel because it might be a great company but because it shareprice is so so cheap. Seen as so cheap thst even vegetarians and animal lovers could be tempted to buy.
Looks like they made it across the line for NPAT, though by the looks of only by having a 53 week time frame and possibly because of 'other revenue' increasing from 48 to 53 million, which could be legitimate or desperate selling to make sure they crossed the threshold. If not for 53 weeks they would not have met their export target and not much growth on the export end of things. Margins are down and vague forecast given for future outlook. Overall it looks alright, looks better dressed than I thought, though still a bit of uncertainty about these guys. Dividend seems alright . Nothing to convince me to be a shareholder, but hope shareholders are happy with this.
I think the lack of forcast is a good thing in away. They've learn from their previous mistakes and providing massive forcast ranges. I'd say they are very confident they'll at least improve NPAT next year, but have decided not to go into any further details to not disappoint the market again.
Then need it to try hide all the issues... they must have dreamed up the PFI because nothing is really that close... but at least most were a bit better than last year... another year of growth on all fronts right? - something they are keen to point out I note... pitty they didn't clearly point out that operating cash flow actually got worse (not way better like they were expecting)... at least we now know why that high flyer on sum other boards decided to quit abruptly.
Good luck to the holders, at least a 4 cent dividend goes some of the way to help for the dozens of cents erased since listing
So it's priced about right currently.
Didn't you just say it was a "great result". Anyway let's see what happens. They have a very dominate NZ market position and there are positives in this stock. Everyone is very keen to crusify them on this site, however if you look at the current SP and results (whilst ignoring the prospectis, which yes deserves to be factored in) there does seem to be value. Someone would need to do some serious convincing to tell me this stock is worth than less than $1 with growing revenues, export growth and 52% NZ market share who has pulled out 34 million NPAT in a massive chicken glut.
"....at least we now know why that high flyer on sum other boards decided to quit abruptly...."
Perhaps my aging years but having had a read through all the .pdfs I still can't find any reference to his leaving? Could someone give me a pointer please?
https://nzx.com/companies/TGH/announcements/300692
"Tegel Group Holdings Limited Chairman resignation" loud and clear on the NZX website (5 May)
A good result considering.I was very slow at joining dots here. TGH from $1.60 to $1.20 since listing and the real beneficiary of adding value to cheap chicken RBD from $5.10 to $5.95 in same time frame:eek2:
... Buy & Hold IMHO ... 6.7% divi using the FY17 yield(should be able to repeat FY18) ... reduction in debt , more automation to continue to lower costs , free range growth ...do like the rebranding ... not going shoot through the roof but I'd be expecting 10-15% return for a YoY hold
Anyone know ex.date for 4.1c divi ?
I'm in for the divvy, result was okay and the stock is quite liquid.
Slide 6 in preso has some nice charts.
If you take their revenue and divide by production ou get a good feel for pricing of the finished product (say yield per tonne)
f17 yield was $6,152/tonne down from $6,252/tonne in F16
Current (average prices) are 5.8% less than FY15
I'd say talk of increased prices is just wishful thinking - chicken is really just chicken after all - winning consumer preference on price.
Yes back in @ 1.16 ...see if I can make another profitable trade ....good to see some support at these levels
End of the day with 60,000+ more kiwis p.a + tourism growth ...and chicken a increasing favourite food choice .... I'd be very surprised to see
TGH not keep on a slow but steady growth path (well till some mega International BUYs them)
Good to see your confidence guys. I'll wait a few days and see where the SP leads before topping up :)
TGH failed at 1.21 (1.23) resistance level..and the FY announcement failed to ignite the sharprice to cause a break out....could be the end of another sucker rally, folks.
On the positive side the chart still seems bullish although weakening as the sucker rally dissipates..
See detailed Chart on the Using TA to time entries and exits thread Post #283
the old 53 week trick eh...fooled some into thinking they'd met guidance but the market overall has voted and seems unimpressed, down 5 cents before the result and 2 cents after it. I'm thinking the shares just like their chicken will be on super special for quite some time. A sustained commodity glut is exactly that no matter how you slice and dice it, just ask the Saudi's or the Russians !
Other than the obvious 53 week trick I wonder if the other beagle has time to go sniffing and digging into their accounts looking for any less obvious accounting tricks, (this hound too busy barking up other trees). Come in Snoopy !