Got my full of HGL for now. Just a waiting game till the end of January for update.Don't want to be too greedy, left some for you. Have been visiting a couple stores lately to monitor progress....busy,busy,busy:t_up:.
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Definitely not something to be trifled with that's for sure :D I think I got to 38 cps without any persuasion or special sauce a while back...if I overindulge I might imagine those two numbers around the other way LOL.
P.S. Anyway speaking of Christmas and gift giving...HLG the gift you give yourself that keeps on giving...can we please have a brief hiatus in all the positive posts, I'd like to stuff a few more into my own Xmas stocking as close as possible to $3.00.
So we've spent a lot of time talking about the positives which there are plenty :)
Playing devil's advocate here. What do you think the potential risks to hallensteins over the next year aside of the obvious competition. Anything you think COULD hamper the share price?
I conducted an informal survey with my clients regarding their expectations of December retail.
I gave them four choices with 1 being times are tough and 4 being Spectacular
The results were
- 2% (Times are tough)
- 38% (Normal)
- 44% (Good times-retail therapy tonic of choice)
- 8% (Spectacular)
- 8% No opinion expressed
......you did say anything?
Thank you for playing Devil's advocate here, hopefully I can beat the SP down 10 cents on a temporary basis so I can buy some more on the cheap, oh my goodness did I really say that out loud :blush:
1. Currency could hurt them, when it was circa 64-5 cents last year it hurt, they're going fairly short with forward cover so a sharp currency drop could even have an effect this financial year
2. A possible fall in consumer confidence caused by any major factor including a material increase in interest rates
3. Rising mall rents
4. Competition opening up at a greater rate than HLG are able to meet with refreshed store formats, (refreshing of store format has boosted sales in stores near where new competition has opened up)
5. Very unseasonable weather, e.g. wet / coldish summer, hot dry autumn, record warm winter temperatures, or all the preceding.
Yeah they're in desperate trouble with all those new competitors mate...according to quite a few commentators on here a few months back HLG were headed down the same path as Pumpkin Patch LOL.
Please hit my buying bid tomorrow, all donations to the hounds welfare fund gratefully received :D
I felt that way when I sold out at 2.72c about 4 months back at a small profit, hoping they would fall back to where I bought in at 2.61 to 2.69c., av=2.65c. There were a few people pumping back then, so had to buy back in from 2.89 to 3.16= 3.02 av...... join the club....pump pump pump.
Great thoughts Roger.
Its one of those odd ones where I want it to go down before it goes back up so I can buy some more!!! Are we being too greedy....up up and away I say!!
One thing I really like about Hallensteins is their honesty in announcements. They seem to be very transparent and admit when they've had disappointing years. I like that. I go to the future with a lot of confidence and you know what, it feels good being an investor in a clothing company that battles off the big guys:cool:
NZD tumbles to 6 month low v USD
At least HLG are making heaps during the important busy part of the year
Anyway - NZD will be back in the 70's soon
No worries
Just wondering whether the recent WHS announcement (revenue growth but margin squeeze) might apply for HGL as well? Pretty sure anyway that the SP might have a wee dip over he next couple of days ... time to accumulate - or not?
From the Chairman's address seven days ago at HLG's agm.
"Sales 10% ahead of last year.Gross margin is also up and the season so far is showing very strong growth."
We remain "well positioned,"and from what I hear of Christmas trading so far,I am sure we can up grade that to "very well positioned."
Think i will unsubscribe from their deals.They are coming relentlessly , daily, rejigging, reworking their deals; frenetic, urgent. not sustainable imo; turned me off reading them. Maybe its just for the buildup to xmas.
While the HLG bulls continue to get excited, it seems WHS is not finding the Christmas trading conditions quite so favourable.
"The Board of The Warehouse Group advise that performance in the lead up to Christmas has been below expectations and while the next few weeks are an important trading period, it is unlikely that the year to date shortfall will be fully offset. Adjusted Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) for the Group for the First Half of Financial Year 2017 (H117) ending on 29 January 2017 is expected to be between 10%-15% lower than the same period last year, which is between $41.0m and $38.5m."
But NZer's spending heaps more on Christmas this year
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11769543
Stop scare mongering - HLG doing just fine while Warehouse lost their way
2016 30 cps
2015 31 cps
2014 28.5 cps
2013 33.5 cps
2012 33.5 cps
2011 31 cps
2010 31 cps
Pretty consistent isn't it !
Come on now, someone take out 3.14-3.15 and see how far it will go:t_up:......3.18-3.19?
Why would anyone buy WHS their business model has been proven to be broke since the last CEO jumped ship.
Interesting to note H&M and Zara at Sylvia park are so full they are losing customers to alternatives as people are sick of waiting for changing rooms and checkout..generally good for everyone else in the mall...overactivity results in increased activity for others and spillover sales to HLG....
Yes, and that little HLG shop is pulling in $20,000+ per day leading up to Christmas. Wonder how much the other 128 Gla. Hal. and storm stores are doing? Maybe 20,000 x 129 =$2,580,000 per day? x 12 days leading up to Christmas = $30,960,000. Correct me if I'm wrong. Noticed some one took out most of 3.14 before close yesterday:t_up:. It appears the sellers are holding off and the buyers are creeping up to meet their selling price.
Maybe $5.50-$6.00 long term, maybe 3.16-3.20 short term. If you have look at 10 year chart it appears to be in 3-4 year cycles, and it looks like we are entering a new up cycle. With all this talk of this seasons sales predicted up 10% from last year, who knows where it will go with the end of January update:t_up:. What do you think percy, $6 buy end of next year?
Palms Mall quiet this morning. Glassons and HB all but empty. Kathmandu same.
Retail pressures unlikely to ease in new year: experts
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...w-year-experts
'The arrival of big brands like Zara and H&M into Australia had a "seismic impact" on the country's more established retailers and the same could be expected in New Zealand as those brands widened their reach.' read between the lines.
Buffett "the best competitive advantage is when you have no competitors"
I just can't see how you do that in retail. It's too hard to protect your own patch.
There will always be competition wether Zara is the competition or Glassons is the competition but each will have their place neither will ever have a sole trading moat.
Sales up but at what cost having 40% off everything in store when I walked past doesn't bode well for those margins. still think holders here are seriously underestimating impact new players are having on HLG.
Not in the current reporting window. H & M second NZ store will open in Christchurch next year around September....so slow ramp up...Top Shop will have its third NZ store at that time in Christchurch. Look how long in has taken them to establish three stores one each in the main cities ...
Then come to Australia. Where I shop the novelty aspect of Zara has dissipated. Both shops have customers Zara caters for the 6'2" models and is expensive. Glassons is more generous with their portions and more reasonable with their prices. Both operate in the same patch neither have sale signs on their windows.
My bet the stores that are being opened in the major centres are drawing punters from HLG highest turnover stores in the country. Internally this would be easy to quantify the impact but why would HLG provide this to market.
people are flocking far and wide to the likes of ZAra and H&M my bet they are disrupting HLG usual catchment area. It's not my cup of tea to drive right across Auckland to a particular store but people are doing it. As others have pointed out they have had fairly static earnings on a EPS basis so perhaps they will continue to stay on if not ahead of the curve.
You're welcome mate. Over the last few months HLG has gone from $2.70 to over $3.10 and paid a 16.5 cent fully imputed divvy and all against a backdrop of a soft market overall which is down about 8% from its high in early September. HLG up just on 21% including the dividend, outperforming the market in relative terms by approx. 29%. The commentary at the very recent annual meeting was extremely positive. Those people that were repeatedly warning us of the effects of new competitors a few months back have got this badly wrong.
Except glassons have struggled with profitability in Australia, that should tell you something about the impact of additional competition.
Ugh was ment to reply to someone, should stop posting from my phone
H&M and Zara will bring the crowds good news HLG will get plenty of spill over
not sure I buy that argument tim23 Zara and H&M are taking sales off HLG. Outside of xmas there will be no spillover why go to HLG when the product at Zara and H&M is cheaper, more fashionable and better quality. I know I've asked the question before but who here even shops at HLG and for what reason ?
Have decent sweats - even OK for oldies and I bought one the other day at a Hallensteins next door to an awful almost spooky Topman. And Hallensteins appeared to be cheaper. I don't think I am part of Top Man's target group anyway.
Does it matter if shareholders on here buy from HLG stores? Many punters do shop there to the tune of $230m a year so can't be all bad.
I don't buy any Trilogy stuff and Ecoya candles are a complete ripoff but that doesn't stop me buying Trilogy shares.
Good on you Roger:t_up:. You tell'im off. The only winners here at the moment are the sh:cool:. I'm quite happy sitting here waiting for next update...end of Jan. and at 10% yld., no problem here. Now gotta decide what to do with that nice $10,000+ div from couple weeks back;). Forgot to mention my latest holding is in the green $8000:D.
It seems to be compulsory to quote the above post when being on the not so negative side of things and you do seem to have upset one or two people just a little I do think your view is, how shall I put it, rather narrow.
This is a common fault and not just with you, people fail to see the big picture and that is what you should do your valuations of the future on.
So whilst there may be an element of truth in what you keep banging on about, there are even alternative outcomes for this little bit that you have your blinkered view focused on and then there is the rest of the environment and the outcomes for HLG.
But when all is said and done, usually a lot is said and only a little done, my current valuation for HLG, which I do hold, is a little under the current share price.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
The other thing worth noting is H&M, Zara and the likes aren't expanding quickly and are very unlikely to given the size and cost of their stores.
Worst case scenario they'll be in all the main centers in a couple of years, however New Zealand has strong population growth, a good economy and Hallensteins has far more reach across New Zealand than most clothing competitors.
I'm 25 and the truth is I wouldn't travel far for clothes. I'll either buy online, or where the most convenient store is. I think most other people in my age group would be the same (especially men).
I do think the uplift in Sylvia Park Hallensteins / Glassons will be largely because of the increased foot traffic for apparel in that area. I've heard about some of my friends who have gone to Sylvia Park to see H&M and have bought a few things from them and a few things from Glassons. Once the extra foot traffic dies down I'd be interesting to see if sales performance drops YOY in Sylvia Park for Glassons & Hallensteins, however I doubt this will have a significant effect on year end profit. It is also possible that the performance in Sylvia Park actually increases, but other stores experience a small decline.
The last thing I want to mention is I've been very impressed by Hallensteins marketing this Christmas. I've recieved several emails from them with great discounts to products. The product line seems a bit more fresh than it used to. They're hoping on board with Chinos ect and are very good and getting you to buy extra products. For example one pair is $70 but two is $100. This way they make a bit more profit overall, albeit at a lower margin.
Boysy - I buy work shirts and trousers from the company and they are just fine was at sylvia park the other day and Zara is in no way cheaper.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...w-year-experts
Thanks boysy; good to have an opposing, contrary opinion. Retail can be so cutthroat and competitive; a good reminder. HLG has handled and coped very well over the years and has a n online marketing setup at the mo which is just full noise ahead. A lot of their deals aren't really; just cunningly restructured over and over(hallensteins anyway); becomes the automatic go to place for the mainly young targeted punters or their mums.Im an aberration.
Just got some more at 3.03. last chance for a Christmas bargain :eek2:
Boxing day sales booming - HLG probablybdoingbwell.
HLG popular pick in Stocktastic for 2017 - with noodles, percy et al picking it must have bright prospects
Have unsubscribed from HLG deal emails. Serious overkill has turned me right off to all the frenetic bulldust "deals". Many of them are just the same deals rephrased over and over; e.g. T-shirts. Credibility probs;trying too hard for very short term gain. just my aging opinion which may well be irrelevant as their main target mkt are young men/ teenagers.
Their emails are really quite excessive. I've received around 30 this month from them and 2 on Christmas day!!
It's a shame because the marketing is actually quite good, it's just defeated by excessive communication (and too many deals).
Short is sweet. They could learn a thing or two by The Iconic. I get two or so emails from them a month and they've got the balance of communication much better.
I might email Hallensteins feedback. Will let you know how I go.
I think this is a problem when subscribing to newletters.
I have had to unsubscribe to a great number from, Hannahs to Fin data,Morningstar,Mauldrin,Finnance News etc.
As for Linkdin,Facebook, and Twitter, the only great news was Lady Gaga sent everyone a Merry Xmas note.Still can't figure out if I am following her,or whether she is following me???.
Doesn't sound like you've been getting their emails Biscuit? Few bargains ; just the same deal in a different way over and over; for T shirts anyway .And twice a day. Def overkill for ME. And wonder if the younger set will turn off as well with this repetition. But as I've said, i have been impressed up until now with HLG leaving no stone unturned in the marketing dept; instore and online.
Yes, I get plenty of emails from HLG. I ignore them, they just get sent to trash with all the other emails I don't want to look at. I only buy stuff when I need it. So, when I need a T-shirt (probably never actually - so lets say socks), Mrs Biscuit will say "all your socks have holes in them, you really need to go and buy some more". At that point, or several months later depending on how long I can hold out, I will check up on my HLG emails and keep an eye out for a "bargain". Then I'll buy a dozen identical socks and anything else I might need in the next twelve months. So, for me their system works quite well - I know they are out there with a bargain any time I need them. I guess it is overkill and a negative thing if you are at all times poised and waiting for a really good deal, then you will become disappointed and frustrated. So, maybe not a good marketing strategy overall? I don't know, at least they are in your face to some extent and I know from the many long and vexing conversations I have had with Mrs Biscuit, many people are absolute suckers for a "sale" no matter how illusionary the "sale" really is. With all the money Mrs Biscuit has saved in sales, it is quite surprising to her that we have not retired years ago.
Good grief the frugal kiwi way...however if you have woman as clients..then invest in seriously sharp clothes..you do not have to be good looking however a well dressed man does start from a position where your client will have an open mind you can work with. Best investment you will ever make, my tip or good turn for the day.
Yes, good advice I know. I'm blessed with a job in academia and I can generally turn up to work with holes in my socks, my shirt inside out or food dropped down the front of my shirt as I and other academics do on occasion. It just does not seem to matter so much in that sphere. But yes, I know that a good scrub up and sharp clothes (ironed and not inside out or round the wrong way, or with holes, or faded or from the fifties) goes a long way to smooth ones way through life. But unfortunately some of us just are not made that way.
Delightful; gave me a smile:t_up:. While we are on task; i have an extreme quirk which drives my daughter crazy. More often then not i put my t shirt on inside out , back to front or both. Haven't gone off with a tea towel on my shoulder though but a few nights ago walked down to pick my daughter up from the gym and then walked behind her a few steps and activated the multicoloured LED battery operated xmas lights that i had threaded in and out of my white shirt and over my wide brimmed hat. When she did look back at me her instinct kicked in and she sprinted off.:t_up:
Forever emblazoned in my/ her mind.A Minties moment.
Shaping up to be a fairly chilly summer. Hopefully that doesn't impact sales too much
Share price on fire today
HLG going to be a star in 2017
And back up to $3.15. I'd put that down to thin, "holiday mode" trading.
Its been doing that for the last month or so and agree it's mainly because of thin trading which isn't a bad thing. Not many people are selling Hallensteins and buyers are likely waiting for the Xmas trading announcement to see if they dip their toes in the water.
Hoping for a good Xmas trading announcement and this will be $3.50 before the next divvy payment I'm sure.
One thing I've found interesting is Barkers has run it's sale continually since Boxing Day. They have had significant discounts on all clothing. I've never seen Barkers run a storewide sale for this long. I know they cater for slightly different markets, but it makes me wonder if they're struggling a bit.
Weather wise apparently it's been average as so far and very windy, but who knows we'll probably see a good summer Feb to April. As Roger says, historically it's pretty late in NZ.
When will we get the next update from Hallensteins. Late Jan is it?
So I was doing some research last night and had a good read of the Annual Report and ASM. I'm trying to make my own assumptions for NPAT in FY17 if things trend in a similar way for the rest of the year. I appreciate this is a long way out, but thought it would be fun to create some assumptions based on what we've heard so far.
My observations were below:
Hallensteins
Still a very competitive environment and unlikely to see sales growth in FY17. Flat so far this year. They may get a bit more margin from products this year, but competition is resulting in some margin cutting.
My guess is NPAT will be slightly up this year due to a better winter trading period and improved margins due to exchange rates ect. I predict NPAT at 9 million, up from 8.5 million in FY16.
Storm
Sales are actually behind so far this year, but they have opened a new store in Queenstown which should lift revenue and sales.
Guessing NPAT will be flat at .8 million, but for good measure and the new store will round up to 1 million.
Glassons Australia
Here's where the big turnaround will be and where I project long term will come from. In recent announcements, Hallensteins is confident the store will return to profit in FY17. Sales are up over 10% and the stores are seeing a good turnaround.
Guess is NPAT will be between 1 and 2 million, up from a loss of 1.9 million in FY16. I think results will further improve in FY18 which is great for the Group.
Glassons New Zealand
Improved margin is expected to be witnessed in FY17 and sales are up so far. Glassons NZ is always a solid performer and this year should be no different.
Based on the above sales increase estimating NPAT of 6 million up from 5.5 million in FY17.
Overall
Based on fairly conservative estimates and what the Group has announced I'm predicting NPAT for Hallensteins in FY17 in the range of 16 to 18 million. There will definitely be considerable improvement in the Glassons business, with fairly flat sales across Storm and Hallensteins; however higher margins should also improve their respective NPAT performance.
Performance should be fairly in line with the Groups performance in 2013 and 2015 and I would think all going well should support a SP above $3.50.
I don't think so. Reading the report I can't see a lot of profit growth coming from Hallenstein Borthers this year, even with a better exchange rate. They have said sales are flat and margins are still under some pressure.
Glassons AU and NZ will both see a very good performance this year, but I think profits in the 20s will have to wait until FY18, UNLESS Glassons AU pulls out a bigger profit than my forecast ;)
LOL good one mate.
Good post overall mate but have another look at what the company has said recently about Glassons sales performance in N.Z. in terms of margin and substantial sales growth. For my money you're significantly lower than my expectations for Glassons N.Z. Don't forget e.commerce channels too growing at 24% per annum and now representing 7% of group sales.
I hope I'm low overall Roger! I think 16 to 18 million is very conservative and just shows that this is undervalued. If they post over 20 million NPAT historically the SP would go well above $4 so I hope you're right :)
Positively there's a lot of room for growth in AU too. If AU Glassons started posting NPAT similar to NZ, we'd be well into the 20s.
In relation to e-commerce I get a bit confused here. Do they bundle this all into one result for the whole Group, or is it also put into divisional sales? For example if Hallenstein Brothers reports a flat result YOY, but e-commerce is up 7% does that mean that store sales are down and internet sales are up, or are store sales flat and internet sales up?
It's great that e-commerce is growing, but if that's just a transition of existing store sales to online channels it doesn't particularly help if you get my drift.
Jeremy - you said - Performance should be fairly in line with the Groups performance in 2013 and 2015 and I would think all going well should support a SP above $3.50.
So if $16m-$$18m profit (very very conservative) supports $3.50 share price what would $23m/$24m profit support?
Over $5 surely
That's what i'm looking forward to