Completely agree there is negative sentiment based on historic performance but here lies the opportunity.
The data gives me confidence that this time is different. Two key points:
#1 it is only until very recently you have been able to derive from the announcements how profitable MCP actually is compared to OP.
#2 The seedling growth cycle takes around three years, meaning the 2021 pollination activity which makes up the seedling supply for 2023 is already taking place. As per the results announcement, the activity saw an unprecedented number of flowers, giving a significant boost to 2023 volumes. This is of course subject to inherent weather risk but does provide confidence that MCP supply is indeed increasing and this is the key driver of earnings.
Take the time to put some numbers behind these two points and their impact on earnings, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.