OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ValueNZ]

You're giving the market too much credit, Winner. The NZX has a poor track record when it comes to pricing equities, especially for stocks like OCA with relatively low liquidity. Just a few months ago, the market valued OCA at a market cap of only $370 million, despite having net assets of over $1 billion. It was practically free money for anyone with an ounce of courage.

It's surprising to see this thread almost fall off the first page. All the bears have gone extinct, it’s a shame because their posts were quite entertaining to read.
We must be nearing the end of the Sharetrader cycle. We've already got a few bears on board. Just watch this thread go bananas over the stock - what people here wouldn't touch at 50 cents, they'll be ecstatic to pick up for $1+. And I'll be damn sure to bring up their old posts.

[X-men]

Last auction!!! OCR meeting next week

[Habits]

We must be nearing the end of the Sharetrader cycle. We've already got a few bears on board. Just watch this thread go bananas over the stock - what people here wouldn't touch at 50 cents, they'll be ecstatic to pick up for $1+. And I'll be damn sure to bring up their old posts.

Yeah whatever, you already know how investors are erratic, so whats the point of being a smart arse about it, unless of course they are in denial

[Daytr]

You're giving the market too much credit, Winner. The NZX has a poor track record when it comes to pricing equities, especially for stocks like OCA with relatively low liquidity. Just a few months ago, the market valued OCA at a market cap of only $370 million, despite having net assets of over $1 billion. It was practically free money for anyone with an ounce of courage.

It's surprising to see this thread almost fall off the first page. All the bears have gone extinct, it’s a shame because their posts were quite entertaining to read.

Agreed as the market certainly over valued it at $1.60.

Hey but nothing has changed right?
Except what is external to the company....
The real test will come with the next company results to see if there is an improvement or the bottom line has continued to deteriorate.

Is Orr prepared to front run the US on rates? Maybe. We will see this coming week.

[Baa_Baa]

$557m market cap vs $2800m total assets 🤣

[Greekwatchdog]

Agreed as the market certainly over valued it at $1.60.

Hey but nothing has changed right?
Except what is external to the company....
The real test will come with the next company results to see if there is an improvement or the bottom line has continued to deteriorate.

Is Orr prepared to front run the US on rates? Maybe. We will see this coming week.

Remember that $1.60 came when Assets were inflated because of Covid. Go look at how the whole market was priced then They borrowed cheap to build at a very low interest rates that don't mature until 2028. Great work by management for me. As for the share price, for those who have added at the lows great work, enjoy your reward when you sell

I will open the OCA draw when I sip my 2013 Te Mata Coleraine.

[Daytr]

$557m market cap vs $2800m total assets 🤣

Really!
Wow just highlights how big their liabilities are.

[Daytr]

Remember that $1.60 came when Assets were inflated because of Covid. Go look at how the whole market was priced then They borrowed cheap to build at a very low interest rates that don't mature until 2028. Great work by management for me. As for the share price, for those who have added at the lows great work, enjoy your reward when you sell

I will open the OCA draw when I sip my 2013 Te Mata Coleraine.

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Agreed they structured their borrowing well, but they haven't reduced it, in fact it's increased which could be a problem depending on where rates are when it's time to roll it.

[Baa_Baa]

Check out these tailwinds

[Greekwatchdog]

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Agreed they structured their borrowing well, but they haven't reduced it, in fact it's increased which could be a problem depending on where rates are when it's time to roll it.

None of the stocks were worth what the were trading at, just the way the crazy market was.

I am expecting debt to start reducing from now, more weighted to 2nd half, but only the Senior management and board no that.

[Greekwatchdog]

Check out these tailwinds

The tsunami is coming

[Cupsy]

The tsunami is coming

Wow that sounds ominous, and is that bad for oca? (tsunamis generally are not good are they?)

[Greekwatchdog]

Wow that sounds ominous, and is that bad for oca? (tsunamis generally are not good are they?)

This will be good for the sector

[ValueNZ]

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Correct.

It was probably worth well north of that.

[Daytr]

Correct.

It was probably worth well north of that.

Funny guy, if you want to be taken seriously I suggest not posting crap.

[ValueNZ]

Funny guy, if you want to be taken seriously I suggest not posting crap.
Not posting crap :scared:

And I seriously could care less if I'm taken seriously on an anonymous forum

[ValueNZ]

Really!
Wow just highlights how big their liabilities are.
Those "liabilities" are better than equity. :scared:

[Habits]

Check out these tailwinds

I used to think I wanted to live forever (100+), I cant see myself lasting anywhere near that. People I know who have lived a healthy lifestyle are actually worn out and dying early 80s

[Baa_Baa]

Those "liabilities" are better than equity. :scared:

This seems to be a difficult concept for some to get their heads around, just because accounting standards insist on ORA being held on Balance Sheet as a liability.

They would rather focus on minutiae of operational cashflows, of 'care' that isn't the real business (property), or the debt which is well within acceptable norms of large scale property developers and easily sustainable at secured interest rates.

They seem immune to any notion of the ORA being non-callable, ever-growing, never repaid by company shareholders, held at no interest, and leveragable for growth. Or the tailwind of massive increases in addressable market for decades to come.

All because they don't like the person who brought it to their attention, when actually it's been in plain sight since RYM invented it decades ago.

[Daytr]

This seems to be a difficult concept for some to get their heads around, just because accounting standards insist on ORA being held on Balance Sheet as a liability.

They would rather focus on minutiae of operational cashflows, of 'care' that isn't the real business (property), or the debt which is well within acceptable norms of large scale property developers and easily sustainable at secured interest rates.

They seem immune to any notion of the ORA being non-callable, ever-growing, never repaid by company shareholders, held at no interest, and leveragable for growth. Or the tailwind of massive increases in addressable market for decades to come.

All because they don't like the person who brought it to their attention, when actually it's been in plain sight since RYM invented it decades ago.

Baa_Baa you have a vivid imagination.
Making up the rationale of others.
You are talented.

[Baa_Baa]

Baa_Baa you have a vivid imagination.
Making up the rational of others.
You are talented.

Thank you Daytr, but I don't need others to rationalise OCA to make my investment decisions, nor do I need to imagine anything. It's all there in the numbers, plain and simple. I do have a large stake, relatively, which is doing very well thanks to the 'market' which in these early recovery days has realised it seems, that an ARV buyout at 0.83 (to them) is a good deal, but to me it's a cheap as cop out.

We know you don't like the protagonist, but it'd be no reason not to look a bit deeper into why these RV's will be super successful for shareholders in the medium to longer term. And the market cotinues to gift us unimaginably low entry and accumulation prices.

[X-men]

OCR cut next week? Exciting!

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129057/david-hargreaves-previews-forthcoming-ocr-review-which-all-attention-revolves-around

[Daytr]

Thank you Daytr, but I don't need others to rationalise OCA to make my investment decisions, nor do I need to imagine anything. It's all there in the numbers, plain and simple. I do have a large stake, relatively, which is doing very well thanks to the 'market' which in these early recovery days has realised it seems, that an ARV buyout at 0.83 (to them) is a good deal, but to me it's a cheap as cop out.

We know you don't like the protagonist, but it'd be no reason not to look a bit deeper into why these RV's will be super successful for shareholders in the medium to longer term. And the market cotinues to gift us unimaginably low entry and accumulation prices.

My comment had nothing to do with value or the company, just your last paragraph where you seem to think you know what other people think. As I said, talented! 😅

Remember my valuation back 4 - 5 months ago was 99c and that's when most were saying no interest rate cuts to at least mid 2025.

If sales pick up which they should it will have a dramatic improvement on company performance, hey but that's the macro. But it might also paper over the cracks.

They still need to work on what they are returning on assets. Apparently to some that doesn't matter. 🙄

[ValueNZ]

They still need to work on what they are returning on assets. Apparently to some that doesn't matter. 
Of course a RoA is important! It's just that we don't extrapolate a couple bad years of earnings out to infinitum to determine what these RV's are worth.

Historically these RV companies have a rather poor return on assets, mid single digits, but their RoE have been excellent due to the leverage effect of the ORAs.

The float ain't worth sh1t if they can't make a return on it.

[winner69]

…..if sales pick up which they should it will have a dramatic improvement on company performance, hey but that's the macro. But it might also paper over the cracks.

……


Hope the new CEO doesn’t find too many cracks and do something about them with big write downs.

Apparently Suzanne found a big crack at Bupa a few years ago which cost them about $25m

[thebusinessman]

Of course a RoA is important! It's just that we don't extrapolate a couple bad years of earnings out to infinitum to determine what these RV's are worth.

Historically these RV companies have a rather poor return on assets, mid single digits, but their RoE have been excellent due to the leverage effect of the ORAs.

The float ain't worth sh1t if they can't make a return on it.

I may have missed a press release but are we all ignoring the fact that SailorRob has ValueNZ's login details and now just posts his usual style and substance under Value's username?

[mike2020]

I may have missed a press release but are we all ignoring the fact that SailorRob has ValueNZ's login details and now just posts his usual style and substance under Value's username?

Not even close to the same detailed analysis sr offered.

[ValueNZ]

Not even close to the same detailed analysis sr offered.
Yeah true.

But my posts aren't nearly as insufferable to read as yours are.

[winner69]

Heartbreak for Warriors as they go down 34-32 in extra time to the Dolphins. Big comeback to draw level after normal time but effort to no avail. Fans are gutted but some are still in hope that miracles happen and this will still ‘be our year’ …other fans are more realistic and accept this is not to be but say we have the team blah blah and 2025 will be the ‘this is our year’. UP THE WAHS …maybe not.

Oceania share price was down 2 cents last week and closed at 77 cents. Fans were rather quiet, probably still basking in the glory of the last few weeks. However the cheerleaders came out at end of week reminding us of the impending tailwinds like next weeks rate cut etc and there was even mention of tsunamis. So the future is looking all good and the next step up is imminent. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

A casual observer would say ‘this is our year’ is all over for the Warriors and looking a bit uncertain for Oceania who need a lot of external factors to go their way….and w won’t be hearing anything from the company itself until November so hoping things are actually going OK

[mike2020]

Yeah true.

But my posts aren't nearly as insufferable to read as yours are.

Not always true. Unnecessary jibe though it was a simple statement of fact.

[winner69]

OCR could be cut by 50 basis points to 5.00%. ..l with more to come later in year

That’ll see OCA share price soar

[Antipodean]

OCR could be cut by 50 basis points to 5.00%. ..l with more to come later in year

That’ll see OCR share price soar

OCR has a share price? Where do I sign up?

[winner69]

OCR has a share price? Where do I sign up?

Ha ha …funny what predictive text does ..or maybe just my bad

Then again OCR could mean Oceania Capital Raise

[Greekwatchdog]

Heartbreak for Warriors as they go down 34-32 in extra time to the Dolphins. Big comeback to draw level after normal time but effort to no avail. Fans are gutted but some are still in hope that miracles happen and this will still ‘be our year’ …other fans are more realistic and accept this is not to be but say we have the team blah blah and 2025 will be the ‘this is our year’. UP THE WAHS …maybe not.

Oceania share price was down 2 cents last week and closed at 77 cents. Fans were rather quiet, probably still basking in the glory of the last few weeks. However the cheerleaders came out at end of week reminding us of the impending tailwinds like next weeks rate cut etc and there was even mention of tsunamis. So the future is looking all good and the next step up is imminent. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

A casual observer would say ‘this is our year’ is all over for the Warriors and looking a bit uncertain for Oceania who need a lot of external factors to go their way….and w won’t be hearing anything from the company itself until November so hoping things are actually going OK

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

[Ferg]

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

Yeah I'm not understanding the link to the Warriors. Winner has previously said something about it being a study into the psyche of supporters but I'm still not getting the relevance and I'm not seeing any 'cheerleading' as such. But I suppose it is interesting to know what is happening with a rugby league team I neither support nor follow, but the relevance to OCA is a bit tenuous.

[Perky]

im emotionally invested in the wahs and financially invested in OCA.

What they both need to be successful is a “kicker”

The wahs have not iced several games this year by missing goal kicks in regular time and field goals in golden point..
They need to go back to the All Blacks mantra of the 1980s where the first player picked was G Fox…goal kicker

OCA needs some financial kicker to get their sales humming.

I think once the “kicker” kicks in Winner can report much better Monday morning debriefs…lol

What a Kicker Does and How It WorksKickers are characteristics that are introduced to a transaction in order to "get the deal done," since they are only for the advantage of lenders and are used to increase the anticipated return on their investment (ROI).

[Daytr]

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

No sense of humour this one.


Yeah I'm not understanding the link to the Warriors. Winner has previously said something about it being a study into the psyche of supporters but I'm still not getting the relevance and I'm not seeing any 'cheerleading' as such. But I suppose it is interesting to know what is happening with a rugby league team I neither support nor follow, but the relevance to OCA is a bit tenuous.

Really? To anyone without an axe to grind its obvious. I don't have a position and see the stock value higher over time but still can easily spot the over exuberance of some and irrational cheer leading of others.

It wasn't long ago that a certain prolific poster and super fan was posting that up was down and basically nothing could go wrong. Bad new was good news, it didn't matter if they lost money day to day.
I could go on. And he wasn't alone.

New sales, oRAs, resales, DMF, non-callable loans, interest free, I'm sure I have missed something...
It's just amazing with all that going for it that OCA isn't valued at $5 Bln. 🤣

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064778]No sense of humour this one.


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064778]No sense of humour this one.


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

I'm wrong & then you go and confirm I'm right.
Sounds like you are wound up a bit tight mate. Lighten up.

[blackcap]

Time to lighten up people. Some non PC jokes.

https://goodoil.news/comedy-corner-offensive-fun-244/

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1064787]

I'm wrong & then you go and confirm I'm right.
Sounds like you are wound up a bit tight mate. Lighten up.

Ah ha, how did you make that sort of assumption? Trying to read between the lines? LMAO

[winner69]

Duplicated ……

[winner69]

[QUOTE]


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

Could say even though the Warriors have won nothing big for 25+ years they have a loyal and faithful fan base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year now but the fans believe they have the goods to be champs next year

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

[Daytr]

Ruins the joke when you have to explain it Winner. But keep up the routine, you'll make the Edinburgh Festival yet.

[winner69]

Ruins the joke when you have to explain it Winner. But keep up the routine, you'll make the Edinburgh Festival yet.

No daytr no Edinburgh festival for me …leave that honour to Melanie …she’s pretty cool and kicking up acstorm.

Aiming much higher ….. a published academic paper from London School of Economics

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1064787]

Could say even though the Warriors have won nothing big for 25+ years they have a loyal and faithful fan base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year now but the fans believe they have the goods to be champs next year

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

We all know that OCA was going to be a slow burner W69. For gods sake they were repositioning the portfolio just before covid, then wallop.

Nothings changed except the short term trader looking for a quick dollar, and you momentum whingers being unhappy with the share performance as for whatever reason the share price didn't do what you were lot were expecting.

Go figure.

[Cupsy]

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

Except "they" is not everyone, for those others who are interested in understanding the embedded value in the business, as opposed to share price action alone, it is not quite the flipflopping bandwagon fandom.

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=winner69;1064802]

We all know that OCA was going to be a slow burner W69. For gods sake they were repositioning the portfolio just before covid, then wallop.

Nothings changed except the short term trader looking for a quick dollar, and you momentum whingers being unhappy with the share performance as for whatever reason the share price didn't do what you were lot were expecting.

Go figure.

That's one way of looking at it.
Another is you could have had your money elsewhere for the last 7 years, doubled it and invested now in OCA at the same level, or perhaps 1/3rd lower only a few weeks ago.

[Ferg]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.

[thegreatestben]

May 2020, built up a haul over time. Averaging at 76c now

[Cupsy]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1064815]

That's one way of looking at it.
Another is you could have had your money elsewhere for the last 7 years, doubled it and invested now in OCA at the same level, or perhaps 1/3rd lower only a few weeks ago.

Except in reality you can only luck the market in that way, not time it in a planned fashion. Although admitadly it does always seem easy looking back in time (what's the saying.... Hindsight is 20/20 vision, or something to that effect).

[Greekwatchdog]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.

I first entered at IPO, bought alot during the free fall at start of covid. I have added on occasions over last few months. My average is $0.613

[Habits]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.

Bought low sold high after covid. Since re-invested under $1, not sure of avg cost. Luck more than management

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064819]

Except in reality you can only luck the market in that way, not time it in a planned fashion. Although admitadly it does always seem easy looking back in time (what's the saying.... Hindsight is 20/20 vision, or something to that effect).

Not at all.
Housing rocketed under low interest rates, it was clearly signaled that interest rates were going to rise swiftly. In fact Orr stole Ardern's line of go hard go early, he couldn't have been more clear.

Luck had nothing to do with it, looking at the macro and listening to what we were being told at the time was all that was required.

[ValueNZ]

[QUOTE=Cupsy;1064823]

Not at all.
Housing rocketed under low interest rates, it was clearly signaled that interest rates were going to rise swiftly. In fact Orr stole Ardern's line of go hard go early, he couldn't have been more clear.

Luck had nothing to do with it, looking at the macro and listening to what we were being told at the time was all that was required.

So how many houses did you buy during the period of ultra low interest rates, and which property stocks did you sell short when you "knew" the property market was going to fall.

[Curly]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.
Had firm allocation from broker at float and progressively bought more over time. Sold large portion at $1.35 and withdrew sell order once price dropped and received comments on here “one of the faithful have left us”. Have re-purchased at lower levels. Do miss Maverick’s reasoned posts. Cheers Mav.

[Perky]

Bought first lot August 2018. Bought some at covid lows and Covid highs ..haha…ave price 0.74 Qnty 200k

Been an average investment so far but bought with a 20 year time frame so no long term worries.
My exit plan is to sell a few years before peak oldies population forecasts unless something meaningful changes investment case.

More worried about the warriors than OCA

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064836]

So how many houses did you buy during the period of ultra low interest rates, and which property stocks did you sell short when you "knew" the property market was going to fall.

For a young kid I would be concerned about your memory? Early onset dementia?
Already asked by you & answered by me.
And it was a dumb question the first time.

[Cupsy]

[QUOTE=ValueNZ;1064838]

For a young kid I would be concerned about your memory? Early onset dementia?
Already asked by you & answered by me.
And it was a dumb question the first time.

Seemed like a Rhetorical question to me.

[Ferg]

Thanks for the replies everyone - that is much appreciated.

It appears some investors have taken advantage of a falling price and actively managed their investment. So comparing Warriors fans to OCA holders as if they had only been in since IPO is one of many possible views. Although it is a view that is not reflective of a number of current holders. This has been a good investment for some of us. So it's not surprising the 'Wahs' comparison doesn't resonate with everyone.

As they say: form is temporary....

[winner69]

……

As they say: form is temporary....

Form is temporary, class is permanent

You implying Oceania has class Ferg

But then they say you are only as good as your last game …hmmm

[Daytr]

Form is temporary, class is permanent

You implying Oceania has class Ferg

But then they say you are only as good as your last game …hmmm

I find it interesting that those who say there isn't a comparison as they bought here & sold there and yet like a true fan they feel the need to comment.

Jason Paris would be proud. 😅

[ValueNZ]

For a young kid I would be concerned about your memory? Early onset dementia?
Already asked by you & answered by me.
And it was a dumb question the first time.
I guess you just hate money. I mean when you have the ability to know the direction of the property market, and not take full advantage of that with leverage, there's no other explanation... Unless you're blowing smoke

[ValueNZ]

Also fûck the wahs

[winner69]

Also fûck the wahs

Now now value …that’s not nice

Cupsy mentioned Oceania’s embedded value …. and like a true fan said something like it’s better understanding the embedded value in the business, as opposed to share price action alone. Yep Oceania’s embedded value of 71 cents is impressive and then on top of that they have $400m of unsold stuff.

The Wahs also have significant embedded value. That being the enormously talented of class players in the squad. As Ferg inferred class (embedded value) will always prevail

[bull....]

OCA / warriors
under performers but provide great entertainment

[winner69]

OCA / warriors
under performers but provide great entertainment

….provided by large faithful and loyal fanbases

[Perky]

Fun fact for Value since he swore at the fans and it’s a quiet day for oca shares today…

The warriors have been involved in 24 golden point games since 1995 the second most only behind cowboys.

All that free entertainment over and above what we payed to watch in normal time.

Wow…that some embedded value right there

Keeping the faith here on both

my oca shares just a slow burn for the next twenty years so plenty of time to watch the wahs in the meantime and let the shares do there thing

Imagine if Jonny Wilkinson was a warrior…just rolled him out for golden point drop kicks

[Ferg]

Cupsy mentioned Oceania’s embedded value …. and like a true fan said something like it’s better understanding the embedded value in the business, as opposed to share price action alone. Yep Oceania’s embedded value of 71 cents is impressive and then on top of that they have $400m of unsold stuff.

The Wahs also have significant embedded value. That being the enormously talented of class players in the squad. As Ferg inferred class (embedded value) will always prevail

There is only one true dictionary: fan (https://www.oed.com/dictionary/fan_n2)


A fanatic; in modern English (originally U.S.): a keen and regular spectator of a (professional) sport, originally of baseball; a regular supporter of a (professional) sports team; (hence) a keen follower of a specified hobby or amusement, and (gen.) an enthusiast for a particular person or thing.
I'm not sure pointing out the fallacy of someone's else's argument or pointing to facts makes someone a 'fanatic'....? And putting up counter-facts to some of the trolling rubbish wouldn't qualify as cheerleading either. But each to their own I suppose.

I'm glad you know the rest of the quote w69 - it could apply to a true Warrior like Shane Johnstone*, or a team, or a company - accordingly it is best to ignore the daily SP fluctuations** and focus on the underlying business.

* gotcha - lol
** With the caveat that SP fluctuations can be used to an investors advantage.

[ValueNZ]

Watching sports is for losers... Nothing is more boring than watching people aimlessly run around on a field for hours. Akin to watching paint dry, or grass grow.

The link between OCA and the Warriors is non-existent and I have no clue why it's always brought up here.

[Perky]

Xxxx deleted

[winner69]

Xxxx deleted

Interesting point

[Mrbuyit]

Bought first lot August 2018. Bought some at covid lows and Covid highs ..haha…ave price 0.74 Qnty 200k

Been an average investment so far but bought with a 20 year time frame so no long term worries.
My exit plan is to sell a few years before peak oldies population forecasts unless something meaningful changes investment case.

More worried about the warriors than OCA

I'm in pretty much the same ballpark as far as first investment and current average. The worst purchase prices have been via DRP. Probably should pay more attention to decide when to take shares vs dividend payment.. / if oca ever start paying their shareholders again.

[winner69]

Talking of embedded value this was posted on other channel -

ARV had embedded value of $1.72 and the takeover was $1.70. If you follow the same methodology through and OCA got taken over for a fraction less than embedded value the takeover would only be at 70 cents.

Interesting

[bottomfeeder]

Talking of embedded value this was posted on other channel -

ARV had embedded value of $1.72 and the takeover was $1.70. If you follow the same methodology through and OCA got taken over for a fraction less than embedded value the takeover would only be at 70 cents.

Interesting
I dont quite understand the theory of embedded value as it would pertain to a retirement village. It is used to value an insurance business which amounts to NAV plus present value of future profits or thereabouts. Relevant because the value of an insurance company is not held in its assets but its earnings. How OCA would be just above 70 cents would beat me as the NAV is around $1.40 maybe.

Anyone explain it to me and no doubt a few others.

I was always taught that to value a property owning company you would use a NAV. No doubt this would have factored in it the detrimental effect of rates of return on NAV if below the norm or conversely above the norm. Its not as if OCA net earnings are that ridiculously low.

[Daytr]

I dont quite understand the theory of embedded value as it would pertain to a retirement village. It is used to value an insurance business which amounts to NAV plus present value of future profits or thereabouts. Relevant because the value of an insurance company is not held in its assets but its earnings. How OCA would be just above 70 cents would beat me as the NAV is around $1.40 maybe.

Anyone explain it to me and no doubt a few others.

I was always taught that to value a property owning company you would use a NAV. No doubt this would have factored in it the detrimental effect of rates of return on NAV if below the norm or conversely above the norm. Its not as if OCA net earnings are that ridiculously low.

Aren't they? Earnings I mean based off NAV.

[Cupsy]

Talking of embedded value this was posted on other channel -

ARV had embedded value of $1.72 and the takeover was $1.70. If you follow the same methodology through and OCA got taken over for a fraction less than embedded value the takeover would only be at 70 cents.

Interesting

Out of curiosity what is the post number or date of the post, I'm too lazy to search.(sorry I was assuming it was ARV thread, is that correct?)

[Ferg]

I dont quite understand the theory of embedded value as it would pertain to a retirement village. It is used to value an insurance business which amounts to NAV plus present value of future profits or thereabouts. Relevant because the value of an insurance company is not held in its assets but its earnings. How OCA would be just above 70 cents would beat me as the NAV is around $1.40 maybe

For OCA the embedded value (EV) is the value of a subset* of a blend of future cash flows and/or profits coming to OCA. The difference to the insurance industry method you mentioned is the exclusion of NAV. We can't count NAV + EV for RV's given that would double count elements that are in both calculations.

Per page 24 of the OCA presentation (found here (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/29220213/FY2024-Results-Presentation-vFINAL-1-1.pdf)), "The embedded value in our portfolio .... will underpin the future realisation of cash flows from deferred management fees and resale gains".

EV for OCA in the presentation is $517m or 71c per share. This includes $261m of management fees already charged to clients that have not exited their Occupation Right Agreement (ORA) as at year end, plus $256m of unrealised resale gains, assuming all qualifying units can be resold on average at a price higher than that paid by the current tenants.

*I tagged 'subset' above because what is not included in the EV calculation are the unrealised development margins on newly developed units not sold at year end (note the realised gain on the first sale of a unit is called 'realised development margin' per the underlying P&L). Such units are excluded from the EV calculation. Note that OCA deduct the value of 'unsold stock' of $396m in their EV calculation when arriving at their $517m. This $396m is made up of a majority of newly built units and a minority of units bought back from residents for whatever reason (e.g. they may be decommissioned or converted etc). Most of that $396m will come to OCA as a real cashflow via ORA receipts - assuming the newly built units sell at forecast prices.

A second thing missing is the increase in DMF revenues accruing to OCA from higher resale prices. OCA have higher resale prices in the EV calculation but carry a DMF value of $261m based on current prices. If a unit is resold at a profit then by definition it will have DMF charged on day 1 at a higher rate, so at a minimum OCA could include the increased value of DMF for the first year of resales given they are charged in advance. Keep in mind the current DMF value may have been set up to 7 years ago or more for independent living units, and the new DMF value could have 7 years or more inflation added via a higher ORA resale value.

The third thing missing is the unbilled components of DMF on the current ORA contracts. OCA charge clients their management fee in advance and they have only accounted for the DMF that has been invoiced so far in the EV calculation. Based on actuarial tables etc, OCA know a number of clients will be charged in periods after year end for DMF but these are not included in the EV calculation. For instance, invoiced DMF of $261m represents 21% of ORAs banked of $1,260m as at March 2024. There is potentially another x% of [30%-21%=] 9% of $1,260m that will also be charged to clients, where x is the % of clients who are still in occupation when the future years of their ORA contract rolls around. x will be over 90% for independent living units, and a lower percentage for care suites. Say 70% of clients get charged for another year then that is another $79m of EV [rough calculation being 70% x 9% x $1,260].

It is pretty complicated and I have purposely left out a couple of factors to not confuse everyone any more than I have! For instance, their definition of 'realisation of cash flows' is not what the average layman would think it is.

Re: Arvida comparison
Comparing the Arvida offer price to their EV and then saying the EV of OCA would be a fair price is [how to say this politely?] an "interesting" way of looking at it. Especially considering the Arvida Board rejected an earlier offer at the same price. Arvida appear to use the same method of adding DMF and resale gains but I am not sure if the methods underpinning those calculations are identical to OCA's methods. Furthermore, thinking fair value of ARV = ARV EV, therefore fair value of OCA = OCA EV assumes everything else (and I mean everything else) is identical. Such an assumption is [how do I say this politely?] naive.

[Cupsy]

Quality post thank you Ferg, that was next level. I'm not sure whether or not I kicked off some of the EV conversation. In case I did, I should admit it was sloppy terminology on my part, I was actually meaning intrinsic value, or more specifically an individuals determination of value (which in my opinion will likely vary from person to person, and for most of us is unlikely to be exactly perfect). I was trying to convey that I personally have no interest in using market pricing as a measure of value, (which I get the impression some ppl on here do).
I also don't see the link between the wahs and OCA, unless maybe if you are using market price as your yard stick.
Anyway possibly is a very good example of highlighting why the terminology used is so important.

[Perky]

Thanks Ferg. I learn something every time you post…really appreciate how you try and explain things to us with only basic accounting knowledge.
Thanks again…can’t give you more reps but big thumbs up.

[davflaws]

Kia ora Ferg
Thank you for your informative and very clear explanation.

[Getty]

Xxxx deleted

Yeah, I've deleted my share of Castlemaine 4X too!

[bull....]

I dont quite understand the theory of embedded value as it would pertain to a retirement village. It is used to value an insurance business which amounts to NAV plus present value of future profits or thereabouts. Relevant because the value of an insurance company is not held in its assets but its earnings. How OCA would be just above 70 cents would beat me as the NAV is around $1.40 maybe.

Anyone explain it to me and no doubt a few others.

I was always taught that to value a property owning company you would use a NAV. No doubt this would have factored in it the detrimental effect of rates of return on NAV if below the norm or conversely above the norm. Its not as if OCA net earnings are that ridiculously low.

embedded value is subjective. therefore not the best way to value OCA. DCF of the future cashflows of each village is the best method

[Ferg]

embedded value is subjective. therefore not the best way to value OCA. DCF of the future cashflows of each village is the best method

I came to the same conclusion last night that embedded value is subjective......but you said it in much less words. Although I think it is subjective based on what is included and excluded in that calculation, given they are using future cash flows as a base. Village assets are already valued using DCF on the Balance Sheet; the value of completed village assets is $1.6b as at March 2024 which equates to $2.25 per share.

P.S. Thanks for the positive feedback davflaws, Cupsy & Perky. I'm sharing the knowledge so we can hopefully have informed discussions.