OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ValueNZ]

You're giving the market too much credit, Winner. The NZX has a poor track record when it comes to pricing equities, especially for stocks like OCA with relatively low liquidity. Just a few months ago, the market valued OCA at a market cap of only $370 million, despite having net assets of over $1 billion. It was practically free money for anyone with an ounce of courage.

It's surprising to see this thread almost fall off the first page. All the bears have gone extinct, it’s a shame because their posts were quite entertaining to read.
We must be nearing the end of the Sharetrader cycle. We've already got a few bears on board. Just watch this thread go bananas over the stock - what people here wouldn't touch at 50 cents, they'll be ecstatic to pick up for $1+. And I'll be damn sure to bring up their old posts.

[X-men]

Last auction!!! OCR meeting next week

[Habits]

We must be nearing the end of the Sharetrader cycle. We've already got a few bears on board. Just watch this thread go bananas over the stock - what people here wouldn't touch at 50 cents, they'll be ecstatic to pick up for $1+. And I'll be damn sure to bring up their old posts.

Yeah whatever, you already know how investors are erratic, so whats the point of being a smart arse about it, unless of course they are in denial

[Daytr]

You're giving the market too much credit, Winner. The NZX has a poor track record when it comes to pricing equities, especially for stocks like OCA with relatively low liquidity. Just a few months ago, the market valued OCA at a market cap of only $370 million, despite having net assets of over $1 billion. It was practically free money for anyone with an ounce of courage.

It's surprising to see this thread almost fall off the first page. All the bears have gone extinct, it’s a shame because their posts were quite entertaining to read.

Agreed as the market certainly over valued it at $1.60.

Hey but nothing has changed right?
Except what is external to the company....
The real test will come with the next company results to see if there is an improvement or the bottom line has continued to deteriorate.

Is Orr prepared to front run the US on rates? Maybe. We will see this coming week.

[Baa_Baa]

$557m market cap vs $2800m total assets 🤣

[Greekwatchdog]

Agreed as the market certainly over valued it at $1.60.

Hey but nothing has changed right?
Except what is external to the company....
The real test will come with the next company results to see if there is an improvement or the bottom line has continued to deteriorate.

Is Orr prepared to front run the US on rates? Maybe. We will see this coming week.

Remember that $1.60 came when Assets were inflated because of Covid. Go look at how the whole market was priced then They borrowed cheap to build at a very low interest rates that don't mature until 2028. Great work by management for me. As for the share price, for those who have added at the lows great work, enjoy your reward when you sell

I will open the OCA draw when I sip my 2013 Te Mata Coleraine.

[Daytr]

$557m market cap vs $2800m total assets 🤣

Really!
Wow just highlights how big their liabilities are.

[Daytr]

Remember that $1.60 came when Assets were inflated because of Covid. Go look at how the whole market was priced then They borrowed cheap to build at a very low interest rates that don't mature until 2028. Great work by management for me. As for the share price, for those who have added at the lows great work, enjoy your reward when you sell

I will open the OCA draw when I sip my 2013 Te Mata Coleraine.

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Agreed they structured their borrowing well, but they haven't reduced it, in fact it's increased which could be a problem depending on where rates are when it's time to roll it.

[Baa_Baa]

Check out these tailwinds

[Greekwatchdog]

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Agreed they structured their borrowing well, but they haven't reduced it, in fact it's increased which could be a problem depending on where rates are when it's time to roll it.

None of the stocks were worth what the were trading at, just the way the crazy market was.

I am expecting debt to start reducing from now, more weighted to 2nd half, but only the Senior management and board no that.

[Greekwatchdog]

Check out these tailwinds

The tsunami is coming

[Cupsy]

The tsunami is coming

Wow that sounds ominous, and is that bad for oca? (tsunamis generally are not good are they?)

[Greekwatchdog]

Wow that sounds ominous, and is that bad for oca? (tsunamis generally are not good are they?)

This will be good for the sector

[ValueNZ]

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Correct.

It was probably worth well north of that.

[Daytr]

Correct.

It was probably worth well north of that.

Funny guy, if you want to be taken seriously I suggest not posting crap.

[ValueNZ]

Funny guy, if you want to be taken seriously I suggest not posting crap.
Not posting crap :scared:

And I seriously could care less if I'm taken seriously on an anonymous forum

[ValueNZ]

Really!
Wow just highlights how big their liabilities are.
Those "liabilities" are better than equity. :scared:

[Habits]

Check out these tailwinds

I used to think I wanted to live forever (100+), I cant see myself lasting anywhere near that. People I know who have lived a healthy lifestyle are actually worn out and dying early 80s

[Baa_Baa]

Those "liabilities" are better than equity. :scared:

This seems to be a difficult concept for some to get their heads around, just because accounting standards insist on ORA being held on Balance Sheet as a liability.

They would rather focus on minutiae of operational cashflows, of 'care' that isn't the real business (property), or the debt which is well within acceptable norms of large scale property developers and easily sustainable at secured interest rates.

They seem immune to any notion of the ORA being non-callable, ever-growing, never repaid by company shareholders, held at no interest, and leveragable for growth. Or the tailwind of massive increases in addressable market for decades to come.

All because they don't like the person who brought it to their attention, when actually it's been in plain sight since RYM invented it decades ago.

[Daytr]

This seems to be a difficult concept for some to get their heads around, just because accounting standards insist on ORA being held on Balance Sheet as a liability.

They would rather focus on minutiae of operational cashflows, of 'care' that isn't the real business (property), or the debt which is well within acceptable norms of large scale property developers and easily sustainable at secured interest rates.

They seem immune to any notion of the ORA being non-callable, ever-growing, never repaid by company shareholders, held at no interest, and leveragable for growth. Or the tailwind of massive increases in addressable market for decades to come.

All because they don't like the person who brought it to their attention, when actually it's been in plain sight since RYM invented it decades ago.

Baa_Baa you have a vivid imagination.
Making up the rationale of others.
You are talented.

[Baa_Baa]

Baa_Baa you have a vivid imagination.
Making up the rational of others.
You are talented.

Thank you Daytr, but I don't need others to rationalise OCA to make my investment decisions, nor do I need to imagine anything. It's all there in the numbers, plain and simple. I do have a large stake, relatively, which is doing very well thanks to the 'market' which in these early recovery days has realised it seems, that an ARV buyout at 0.83 (to them) is a good deal, but to me it's a cheap as cop out.

We know you don't like the protagonist, but it'd be no reason not to look a bit deeper into why these RV's will be super successful for shareholders in the medium to longer term. And the market cotinues to gift us unimaginably low entry and accumulation prices.

[X-men]

OCR cut next week? Exciting!

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129057/david-hargreaves-previews-forthcoming-ocr-review-which-all-attention-revolves-around

[Daytr]

Thank you Daytr, but I don't need others to rationalise OCA to make my investment decisions, nor do I need to imagine anything. It's all there in the numbers, plain and simple. I do have a large stake, relatively, which is doing very well thanks to the 'market' which in these early recovery days has realised it seems, that an ARV buyout at 0.83 (to them) is a good deal, but to me it's a cheap as cop out.

We know you don't like the protagonist, but it'd be no reason not to look a bit deeper into why these RV's will be super successful for shareholders in the medium to longer term. And the market cotinues to gift us unimaginably low entry and accumulation prices.

My comment had nothing to do with value or the company, just your last paragraph where you seem to think you know what other people think. As I said, talented! 😅

Remember my valuation back 4 - 5 months ago was 99c and that's when most were saying no interest rate cuts to at least mid 2025.

If sales pick up which they should it will have a dramatic improvement on company performance, hey but that's the macro. But it might also paper over the cracks.

They still need to work on what they are returning on assets. Apparently to some that doesn't matter. 🙄

[ValueNZ]

They still need to work on what they are returning on assets. Apparently to some that doesn't matter. 
Of course a RoA is important! It's just that we don't extrapolate a couple bad years of earnings out to infinitum to determine what these RV's are worth.

Historically these RV companies have a rather poor return on assets, mid single digits, but their RoE have been excellent due to the leverage effect of the ORAs.

The float ain't worth sh1t if they can't make a return on it.

[winner69]

…..if sales pick up which they should it will have a dramatic improvement on company performance, hey but that's the macro. But it might also paper over the cracks.

……


Hope the new CEO doesn’t find too many cracks and do something about them with big write downs.

Apparently Suzanne found a big crack at Bupa a few years ago which cost them about $25m

[thebusinessman]

Of course a RoA is important! It's just that we don't extrapolate a couple bad years of earnings out to infinitum to determine what these RV's are worth.

Historically these RV companies have a rather poor return on assets, mid single digits, but their RoE have been excellent due to the leverage effect of the ORAs.

The float ain't worth sh1t if they can't make a return on it.

I may have missed a press release but are we all ignoring the fact that SailorRob has ValueNZ's login details and now just posts his usual style and substance under Value's username?

[mike2020]

I may have missed a press release but are we all ignoring the fact that SailorRob has ValueNZ's login details and now just posts his usual style and substance under Value's username?

Not even close to the same detailed analysis sr offered.

[ValueNZ]

Not even close to the same detailed analysis sr offered.
Yeah true.

But my posts aren't nearly as insufferable to read as yours are.

[winner69]

Heartbreak for Warriors as they go down 34-32 in extra time to the Dolphins. Big comeback to draw level after normal time but effort to no avail. Fans are gutted but some are still in hope that miracles happen and this will still ‘be our year’ …other fans are more realistic and accept this is not to be but say we have the team blah blah and 2025 will be the ‘this is our year’. UP THE WAHS …maybe not.

Oceania share price was down 2 cents last week and closed at 77 cents. Fans were rather quiet, probably still basking in the glory of the last few weeks. However the cheerleaders came out at end of week reminding us of the impending tailwinds like next weeks rate cut etc and there was even mention of tsunamis. So the future is looking all good and the next step up is imminent. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

A casual observer would say ‘this is our year’ is all over for the Warriors and looking a bit uncertain for Oceania who need a lot of external factors to go their way….and w won’t be hearing anything from the company itself until November so hoping things are actually going OK

[mike2020]

Yeah true.

But my posts aren't nearly as insufferable to read as yours are.

Not always true. Unnecessary jibe though it was a simple statement of fact.

[winner69]

OCR could be cut by 50 basis points to 5.00%. ..l with more to come later in year

That’ll see OCA share price soar

[Antipodean]

OCR could be cut by 50 basis points to 5.00%. ..l with more to come later in year

That’ll see OCR share price soar

OCR has a share price? Where do I sign up?

[winner69]

OCR has a share price? Where do I sign up?

Ha ha …funny what predictive text does ..or maybe just my bad

Then again OCR could mean Oceania Capital Raise

[Greekwatchdog]

Heartbreak for Warriors as they go down 34-32 in extra time to the Dolphins. Big comeback to draw level after normal time but effort to no avail. Fans are gutted but some are still in hope that miracles happen and this will still ‘be our year’ …other fans are more realistic and accept this is not to be but say we have the team blah blah and 2025 will be the ‘this is our year’. UP THE WAHS …maybe not.

Oceania share price was down 2 cents last week and closed at 77 cents. Fans were rather quiet, probably still basking in the glory of the last few weeks. However the cheerleaders came out at end of week reminding us of the impending tailwinds like next weeks rate cut etc and there was even mention of tsunamis. So the future is looking all good and the next step up is imminent. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

A casual observer would say ‘this is our year’ is all over for the Warriors and looking a bit uncertain for Oceania who need a lot of external factors to go their way….and w won’t be hearing anything from the company itself until November so hoping things are actually going OK

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

[Ferg]

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

Yeah I'm not understanding the link to the Warriors. Winner has previously said something about it being a study into the psyche of supporters but I'm still not getting the relevance and I'm not seeing any 'cheerleading' as such. But I suppose it is interesting to know what is happening with a rugby league team I neither support nor follow, but the relevance to OCA is a bit tenuous.

[Perky]

im emotionally invested in the wahs and financially invested in OCA.

What they both need to be successful is a “kicker”

The wahs have not iced several games this year by missing goal kicks in regular time and field goals in golden point..
They need to go back to the All Blacks mantra of the 1980s where the first player picked was G Fox…goal kicker

OCA needs some financial kicker to get their sales humming.

I think once the “kicker” kicks in Winner can report much better Monday morning debriefs…lol

What a Kicker Does and How It WorksKickers are characteristics that are introduced to a transaction in order to "get the deal done," since they are only for the advantage of lenders and are used to increase the anticipated return on their investment (ROI).

[Daytr]

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

No sense of humour this one.


Yeah I'm not understanding the link to the Warriors. Winner has previously said something about it being a study into the psyche of supporters but I'm still not getting the relevance and I'm not seeing any 'cheerleading' as such. But I suppose it is interesting to know what is happening with a rugby league team I neither support nor follow, but the relevance to OCA is a bit tenuous.

Really? To anyone without an axe to grind its obvious. I don't have a position and see the stock value higher over time but still can easily spot the over exuberance of some and irrational cheer leading of others.

It wasn't long ago that a certain prolific poster and super fan was posting that up was down and basically nothing could go wrong. Bad new was good news, it didn't matter if they lost money day to day.
I could go on. And he wasn't alone.

New sales, oRAs, resales, DMF, non-callable loans, interest free, I'm sure I have missed something...
It's just amazing with all that going for it that OCA isn't valued at $5 Bln. 🤣

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064778]No sense of humour this one.


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064778]No sense of humour this one.


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

I'm wrong & then you go and confirm I'm right.
Sounds like you are wound up a bit tight mate. Lighten up.

[blackcap]

Time to lighten up people. Some non PC jokes.

https://goodoil.news/comedy-corner-offensive-fun-244/

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1064787]

I'm wrong & then you go and confirm I'm right.
Sounds like you are wound up a bit tight mate. Lighten up.

Ah ha, how did you make that sort of assumption? Trying to read between the lines? LMAO

[winner69]

Duplicated ……

[winner69]

[QUOTE]


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

Could say even though the Warriors have won nothing big for 25+ years they have a loyal and faithful fan base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year now but the fans believe they have the goods to be champs next year

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

[Daytr]

Ruins the joke when you have to explain it Winner. But keep up the routine, you'll make the Edinburgh Festival yet.

[winner69]

Ruins the joke when you have to explain it Winner. But keep up the routine, you'll make the Edinburgh Festival yet.

No daytr no Edinburgh festival for me …leave that honour to Melanie …she’s pretty cool and kicking up acstorm.

Aiming much higher ….. a published academic paper from London School of Economics

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1064787]

Could say even though the Warriors have won nothing big for 25+ years they have a loyal and faithful fan base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year now but the fans believe they have the goods to be champs next year

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

We all know that OCA was going to be a slow burner W69. For gods sake they were repositioning the portfolio just before covid, then wallop.

Nothings changed except the short term trader looking for a quick dollar, and you momentum whingers being unhappy with the share performance as for whatever reason the share price didn't do what you were lot were expecting.

Go figure.

[Cupsy]

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

Except "they" is not everyone, for those others who are interested in understanding the embedded value in the business, as opposed to share price action alone, it is not quite the flipflopping bandwagon fandom.

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=winner69;1064802]

We all know that OCA was going to be a slow burner W69. For gods sake they were repositioning the portfolio just before covid, then wallop.

Nothings changed except the short term trader looking for a quick dollar, and you momentum whingers being unhappy with the share performance as for whatever reason the share price didn't do what you were lot were expecting.

Go figure.

That's one way of looking at it.
Another is you could have had your money elsewhere for the last 7 years, doubled it and invested now in OCA at the same level, or perhaps 1/3rd lower only a few weeks ago.

[Ferg]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.

[thegreatestben]

May 2020, built up a haul over time. Averaging at 76c now

[Cupsy]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1064815]

That's one way of looking at it.
Another is you could have had your money elsewhere for the last 7 years, doubled it and invested now in OCA at the same level, or perhaps 1/3rd lower only a few weeks ago.

Except in reality you can only luck the market in that way, not time it in a planned fashion. Although admitadly it does always seem easy looking back in time (what's the saying.... Hindsight is 20/20 vision, or something to that effect).

[Greekwatchdog]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.

I first entered at IPO, bought alot during the free fall at start of covid. I have added on occasions over last few months. My average is $0.613

[Habits]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.

Bought low sold high after covid. Since re-invested under $1, not sure of avg cost. Luck more than management

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064819]

Except in reality you can only luck the market in that way, not time it in a planned fashion. Although admitadly it does always seem easy looking back in time (what's the saying.... Hindsight is 20/20 vision, or something to that effect).

Not at all.
Housing rocketed under low interest rates, it was clearly signaled that interest rates were going to rise swiftly. In fact Orr stole Ardern's line of go hard go early, he couldn't have been more clear.

Luck had nothing to do with it, looking at the macro and listening to what we were being told at the time was all that was required.

[ValueNZ]

[QUOTE=Cupsy;1064823]

Not at all.
Housing rocketed under low interest rates, it was clearly signaled that interest rates were going to rise swiftly. In fact Orr stole Ardern's line of go hard go early, he couldn't have been more clear.

Luck had nothing to do with it, looking at the macro and listening to what we were being told at the time was all that was required.

So how many houses did you buy during the period of ultra low interest rates, and which property stocks did you sell short when you "knew" the property market was going to fall.

[Curly]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.
Had firm allocation from broker at float and progressively bought more over time. Sold large portion at $1.35 and withdrew sell order once price dropped and received comments on here “one of the faithful have left us”. Have re-purchased at lower levels. Do miss Maverick’s reasoned posts. Cheers Mav.

[Perky]

Bought first lot August 2018. Bought some at covid lows and Covid highs ..haha…ave price 0.74 Qnty 200k

Been an average investment so far but bought with a 20 year time frame so no long term worries.
My exit plan is to sell a few years before peak oldies population forecasts unless something meaningful changes investment case.

More worried about the warriors than OCA

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064836]

So how many houses did you buy during the period of ultra low interest rates, and which property stocks did you sell short when you "knew" the property market was going to fall.

For a young kid I would be concerned about your memory? Early onset dementia?
Already asked by you & answered by me.
And it was a dumb question the first time.

[Cupsy]

[QUOTE=ValueNZ;1064838]

For a young kid I would be concerned about your memory? Early onset dementia?
Already asked by you & answered by me.
And it was a dumb question the first time.

Seemed like a Rhetorical question to me.

[Ferg]

Thanks for the replies everyone - that is much appreciated.

It appears some investors have taken advantage of a falling price and actively managed their investment. So comparing Warriors fans to OCA holders as if they had only been in since IPO is one of many possible views. Although it is a view that is not reflective of a number of current holders. This has been a good investment for some of us. So it's not surprising the 'Wahs' comparison doesn't resonate with everyone.

As they say: form is temporary....

[winner69]

……

As they say: form is temporary....

Form is temporary, class is permanent

You implying Oceania has class Ferg

But then they say you are only as good as your last game …hmmm

[Daytr]

Form is temporary, class is permanent

You implying Oceania has class Ferg

But then they say you are only as good as your last game …hmmm

I find it interesting that those who say there isn't a comparison as they bought here & sold there and yet like a true fan they feel the need to comment.

Jason Paris would be proud. 😅

[ValueNZ]

For a young kid I would be concerned about your memory? Early onset dementia?
Already asked by you & answered by me.
And it was a dumb question the first time.
I guess you just hate money. I mean when you have the ability to know the direction of the property market, and not take full advantage of that with leverage, there's no other explanation... Unless you're blowing smoke

[ValueNZ]

Also fûck the wahs

[winner69]

Also fûck the wahs

Now now value …that’s not nice

Cupsy mentioned Oceania’s embedded value …. and like a true fan said something like it’s better understanding the embedded value in the business, as opposed to share price action alone. Yep Oceania’s embedded value of 71 cents is impressive and then on top of that they have $400m of unsold stuff.

The Wahs also have significant embedded value. That being the enormously talented of class players in the squad. As Ferg inferred class (embedded value) will always prevail

[bull....]

OCA / warriors
under performers but provide great entertainment

[winner69]

OCA / warriors
under performers but provide great entertainment

….provided by large faithful and loyal fanbases

[Perky]

Fun fact for Value since he swore at the fans and it’s a quiet day for oca shares today…

The warriors have been involved in 24 golden point games since 1995 the second most only behind cowboys.

All that free entertainment over and above what we payed to watch in normal time.

Wow…that some embedded value right there

Keeping the faith here on both

my oca shares just a slow burn for the next twenty years so plenty of time to watch the wahs in the meantime and let the shares do there thing

Imagine if Jonny Wilkinson was a warrior…just rolled him out for golden point drop kicks

[Ferg]

Cupsy mentioned Oceania’s embedded value …. and like a true fan said something like it’s better understanding the embedded value in the business, as opposed to share price action alone. Yep Oceania’s embedded value of 71 cents is impressive and then on top of that they have $400m of unsold stuff.

The Wahs also have significant embedded value. That being the enormously talented of class players in the squad. As Ferg inferred class (embedded value) will always prevail

There is only one true dictionary: fan (https://www.oed.com/dictionary/fan_n2)


A fanatic; in modern English (originally U.S.): a keen and regular spectator of a (professional) sport, originally of baseball; a regular supporter of a (professional) sports team; (hence) a keen follower of a specified hobby or amusement, and (gen.) an enthusiast for a particular person or thing.
I'm not sure pointing out the fallacy of someone's else's argument or pointing to facts makes someone a 'fanatic'....? And putting up counter-facts to some of the trolling rubbish wouldn't qualify as cheerleading either. But each to their own I suppose.

I'm glad you know the rest of the quote w69 - it could apply to a true Warrior like Shane Johnstone*, or a team, or a company - accordingly it is best to ignore the daily SP fluctuations** and focus on the underlying business.

* gotcha - lol
** With the caveat that SP fluctuations can be used to an investors advantage.

[ValueNZ]

Watching sports is for losers... Nothing is more boring than watching people aimlessly run around on a field for hours. Akin to watching paint dry, or grass grow.

The link between OCA and the Warriors is non-existent and I have no clue why it's always brought up here.

[Perky]

Xxxx deleted

[winner69]

Xxxx deleted

Interesting point

[Mrbuyit]

Bought first lot August 2018. Bought some at covid lows and Covid highs ..haha…ave price 0.74 Qnty 200k

Been an average investment so far but bought with a 20 year time frame so no long term worries.
My exit plan is to sell a few years before peak oldies population forecasts unless something meaningful changes investment case.

More worried about the warriors than OCA

I'm in pretty much the same ballpark as far as first investment and current average. The worst purchase prices have been via DRP. Probably should pay more attention to decide when to take shares vs dividend payment.. / if oca ever start paying their shareholders again.

[winner69]

Talking of embedded value this was posted on other channel -

ARV had embedded value of $1.72 and the takeover was $1.70. If you follow the same methodology through and OCA got taken over for a fraction less than embedded value the takeover would only be at 70 cents.

Interesting

[bottomfeeder]

Talking of embedded value this was posted on other channel -

ARV had embedded value of $1.72 and the takeover was $1.70. If you follow the same methodology through and OCA got taken over for a fraction less than embedded value the takeover would only be at 70 cents.

Interesting
I dont quite understand the theory of embedded value as it would pertain to a retirement village. It is used to value an insurance business which amounts to NAV plus present value of future profits or thereabouts. Relevant because the value of an insurance company is not held in its assets but its earnings. How OCA would be just above 70 cents would beat me as the NAV is around $1.40 maybe.

Anyone explain it to me and no doubt a few others.

I was always taught that to value a property owning company you would use a NAV. No doubt this would have factored in it the detrimental effect of rates of return on NAV if below the norm or conversely above the norm. Its not as if OCA net earnings are that ridiculously low.

[Daytr]

I dont quite understand the theory of embedded value as it would pertain to a retirement village. It is used to value an insurance business which amounts to NAV plus present value of future profits or thereabouts. Relevant because the value of an insurance company is not held in its assets but its earnings. How OCA would be just above 70 cents would beat me as the NAV is around $1.40 maybe.

Anyone explain it to me and no doubt a few others.

I was always taught that to value a property owning company you would use a NAV. No doubt this would have factored in it the detrimental effect of rates of return on NAV if below the norm or conversely above the norm. Its not as if OCA net earnings are that ridiculously low.

Aren't they? Earnings I mean based off NAV.

[Cupsy]

Talking of embedded value this was posted on other channel -

ARV had embedded value of $1.72 and the takeover was $1.70. If you follow the same methodology through and OCA got taken over for a fraction less than embedded value the takeover would only be at 70 cents.

Interesting

Out of curiosity what is the post number or date of the post, I'm too lazy to search.(sorry I was assuming it was ARV thread, is that correct?)

[Ferg]

I dont quite understand the theory of embedded value as it would pertain to a retirement village. It is used to value an insurance business which amounts to NAV plus present value of future profits or thereabouts. Relevant because the value of an insurance company is not held in its assets but its earnings. How OCA would be just above 70 cents would beat me as the NAV is around $1.40 maybe

For OCA the embedded value (EV) is the value of a subset* of a blend of future cash flows and/or profits coming to OCA. The difference to the insurance industry method you mentioned is the exclusion of NAV. We can't count NAV + EV for RV's given that would double count elements that are in both calculations.

Per page 24 of the OCA presentation (found here (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/29220213/FY2024-Results-Presentation-vFINAL-1-1.pdf)), "The embedded value in our portfolio .... will underpin the future realisation of cash flows from deferred management fees and resale gains".

EV for OCA in the presentation is $517m or 71c per share. This includes $261m of management fees already charged to clients that have not exited their Occupation Right Agreement (ORA) as at year end, plus $256m of unrealised resale gains, assuming all qualifying units can be resold on average at a price higher than that paid by the current tenants.

*I tagged 'subset' above because what is not included in the EV calculation are the unrealised development margins on newly developed units not sold at year end (note the realised gain on the first sale of a unit is called 'realised development margin' per the underlying P&L). Such units are excluded from the EV calculation. Note that OCA deduct the value of 'unsold stock' of $396m in their EV calculation when arriving at their $517m. This $396m is made up of a majority of newly built units and a minority of units bought back from residents for whatever reason (e.g. they may be decommissioned or converted etc). Most of that $396m will come to OCA as a real cashflow via ORA receipts - assuming the newly built units sell at forecast prices.

A second thing missing is the increase in DMF revenues accruing to OCA from higher resale prices. OCA have higher resale prices in the EV calculation but carry a DMF value of $261m based on current prices. If a unit is resold at a profit then by definition it will have DMF charged on day 1 at a higher rate, so at a minimum OCA could include the increased value of DMF for the first year of resales given they are charged in advance. Keep in mind the current DMF value may have been set up to 7 years ago or more for independent living units, and the new DMF value could have 7 years or more inflation added via a higher ORA resale value.

The third thing missing is the unbilled components of DMF on the current ORA contracts. OCA charge clients their management fee in advance and they have only accounted for the DMF that has been invoiced so far in the EV calculation. Based on actuarial tables etc, OCA know a number of clients will be charged in periods after year end for DMF but these are not included in the EV calculation. For instance, invoiced DMF of $261m represents 21% of ORAs banked of $1,260m as at March 2024. There is potentially another x% of [30%-21%=] 9% of $1,260m that will also be charged to clients, where x is the % of clients who are still in occupation when the future years of their ORA contract rolls around. x will be over 90% for independent living units, and a lower percentage for care suites. Say 70% of clients get charged for another year then that is another $79m of EV [rough calculation being 70% x 9% x $1,260].

It is pretty complicated and I have purposely left out a couple of factors to not confuse everyone any more than I have! For instance, their definition of 'realisation of cash flows' is not what the average layman would think it is.

Re: Arvida comparison
Comparing the Arvida offer price to their EV and then saying the EV of OCA would be a fair price is [how to say this politely?] an "interesting" way of looking at it. Especially considering the Arvida Board rejected an earlier offer at the same price. Arvida appear to use the same method of adding DMF and resale gains but I am not sure if the methods underpinning those calculations are identical to OCA's methods. Furthermore, thinking fair value of ARV = ARV EV, therefore fair value of OCA = OCA EV assumes everything else (and I mean everything else) is identical. Such an assumption is [how do I say this politely?] naive.

[Cupsy]

Quality post thank you Ferg, that was next level. I'm not sure whether or not I kicked off some of the EV conversation. In case I did, I should admit it was sloppy terminology on my part, I was actually meaning intrinsic value, or more specifically an individuals determination of value (which in my opinion will likely vary from person to person, and for most of us is unlikely to be exactly perfect). I was trying to convey that I personally have no interest in using market pricing as a measure of value, (which I get the impression some ppl on here do).
I also don't see the link between the wahs and OCA, unless maybe if you are using market price as your yard stick.
Anyway possibly is a very good example of highlighting why the terminology used is so important.

[Perky]

Thanks Ferg. I learn something every time you post…really appreciate how you try and explain things to us with only basic accounting knowledge.
Thanks again…can’t give you more reps but big thumbs up.

[davflaws]

Kia ora Ferg
Thank you for your informative and very clear explanation.

[Getty]

Xxxx deleted

Yeah, I've deleted my share of Castlemaine 4X too!

[bull....]

I dont quite understand the theory of embedded value as it would pertain to a retirement village. It is used to value an insurance business which amounts to NAV plus present value of future profits or thereabouts. Relevant because the value of an insurance company is not held in its assets but its earnings. How OCA would be just above 70 cents would beat me as the NAV is around $1.40 maybe.

Anyone explain it to me and no doubt a few others.

I was always taught that to value a property owning company you would use a NAV. No doubt this would have factored in it the detrimental effect of rates of return on NAV if below the norm or conversely above the norm. Its not as if OCA net earnings are that ridiculously low.

embedded value is subjective. therefore not the best way to value OCA. DCF of the future cashflows of each village is the best method

[Ferg]

embedded value is subjective. therefore not the best way to value OCA. DCF of the future cashflows of each village is the best method

I came to the same conclusion last night that embedded value is subjective......but you said it in much less words. Although I think it is subjective based on what is included and excluded in that calculation, given they are using future cash flows as a base. Village assets are already valued using DCF on the Balance Sheet; the value of completed village assets is $1.6b as at March 2024 which equates to $2.25 per share.

P.S. Thanks for the positive feedback davflaws, Cupsy & Perky. I'm sharing the knowledge so we can hopefully have informed discussions.

[bull....]

I came to the same conclusion last night that embedded value is subjective......but you said it in much less words. Although I think it is subjective based on what is included and excluded in that calculation, given they are using future cash flows as a base. Village assets are already valued using DCF on the Balance Sheet; the value of completed village assets is $1.6b as at March 2024 which equates to $2.25 per share.

P.S. Thanks for the positive feedback davflaws, Cupsy & Perky. I'm sharing the knowledge so we can hopefully have informed discussions.

As I understand it there not doing DCF on all the villages by a external person as the cost would be prohibitive so even when they say DCF it is a subjective calc done by OCA on the remaining villages. I enjoy reading your posts too ferg.

[X-men]

Here we go..lift off....0.25 cut

[winner69]

OCA share price over 80 cents heading to 90 cents as soon as punters get organised

[winner69]

Up 2 cents already …..as X-men says we have lift off

[allfromacell]

RYM up almost 4%, OCA will be over the 80c soon and then away flying to $1. Basil is probably buying back in as we speak. Winner probably looking to pick up a few more too, that's good.

[winner69]

RYM up almost 4%, OCA will be over the 80c soon and then away flying to $1. Basil is probably buying back in as we speak. Winner probably looking to pick up a few more too, that's good.

Yep, always good buying in the 60’s

Be over $1.20;after full year results announced …..more rate cuts property market getting a boost ……and having a lucky CEO

Will talk about $1.50 plus when we get to $1.20.

Valuenz take a note of post number so you can pull up some time in future

[Perky]

What i find fascinating is you could buy these shares for 0.64c last month…now people are paying 0.79c

Thats a 23% increase in 1 month
The interest rate has only decreased 0.25%

Surely the sheeple could read any newspaper and see interest rates had peaked and it was only a matter of when they dropped and how much.

The smart money has already moved before today surely.

Need to investigate this winner in your analysis of the fans behaviour for your uk university paper.

edit. Maybe I’m under estimating the ARV buy out bump here.

[ValueNZ]

What i find fascinating is you could buy these shares for 0.64c last month…now people are paying 0.79c

Thats a 23% increase in 1 month
The interest rate has only decreased 0.25%

Surely the sheeple could read any newspaper and see interest rates had peaked and it was only a matter of when they dropped and how much.

The smart money has already moved before today surely.

Need to investigate this winner in your analysis of the fans for your uk university paper.
You could pick up shares from the minnows for only 50c last month.

And that's exactly what I was doing.

[Panda-NZ-]

This company still has takeover potential doesn't it.. unlike rym.

NZX transaction fees are too high so I have to pick between: NPF, RYM and this.

First world problems. ;)

[ValueNZ]

This company still has takeover potential doesn't it.. unlike rym.

NZX transaction fees are too high so I have to pick between: NPF, RYM and this.

First world problems. ;)
But you just sold OCA...

You must really love taxes and donating money to your brokerage.

[Panda-NZ-]

But you just sold OCA...

You must really love taxes and donating money to your brokerage.

I did but times change, my love. Rym up 6% in one day and a surprise OCR cut with the sell side on OCA not being as cluttered.

I must make my selection before 4pm.

edit: OCA is the chosen one!

[X-men]

Last auction...we will never see this dog trading under 80c!!!!

Grab it while still hot!!!!

[Daytr]

For OCA the embedded value (EV) is the value of a subset* of a blend of future cash flows and/or profits coming to OCA. The difference to the insurance industry method you mentioned is the exclusion of NAV. We can't count NAV + EV for RV's given that would double count elements that are in both calculations.

Per page 24 of the OCA presentation (found here (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/29220213/FY2024-Results-Presentation-vFINAL-1-1.pdf)), "The embedded value in our portfolio .... will underpin the future realisation of cash flows from deferred management fees and resale gains".

EV for OCA in the presentation is $517m or 71c per share. This includes $261m of management fees already charged to clients that have not exited their Occupation Right Agreement (ORA) as at year end, plus $256m of unrealised resale gains, assuming all qualifying units can be resold on average at a price higher than that paid by the current tenants.

*I tagged 'subset' above because what is not included in the EV calculation are the unrealised development margins on newly developed units not sold at year end (note the realised gain on the first sale of a unit is called 'realised development margin' per the underlying P&L). Such units are excluded from the EV calculation. Note that OCA deduct the value of 'unsold stock' of $396m in their EV calculation when arriving at their $517m. This $396m is made up of a majority of newly built units and a minority of units bought back from residents for whatever reason (e.g. they may be decommissioned or converted etc). Most of that $396m will come to OCA as a real cashflow via ORA receipts - assuming the newly built units sell at forecast prices.

A second thing missing is the increase in DMF revenues accruing to OCA from higher resale prices. OCA have higher resale prices in the EV calculation but carry a DMF value of $261m based on current prices. If a unit is resold at a profit then by definition it will have DMF charged on day 1 at a higher rate, so at a minimum OCA could include the increased value of DMF for the first year of resales given they are charged in advance. Keep in mind the current DMF value may have been set up to 7 years ago or more for independent living units, and the new DMF value could have 7 years or more inflation added via a higher ORA resale value.

The third thing missing is the unbilled components of DMF on the current ORA contracts. OCA charge clients their management fee in advance and they have only accounted for the DMF that has been invoiced so far in the EV calculation. Based on actuarial tables etc, OCA know a number of clients will be charged in periods after year end for DMF but these are not included in the EV calculation. For instance, invoiced DMF of $261m represents 21% of ORAs banked of $1,260m as at March 2024. There is potentially another x% of [30%-21%=] 9% of $1,260m that will also be charged to clients, where x is the % of clients who are still in occupation when the future years of their ORA contract rolls around. x will be over 90% for independent living units, and a lower percentage for care suites. Say 70% of clients get charged for another year then that is another $79m of EV [rough calculation being 70% x 9% x $1,260].

It is pretty complicated and I have purposely left out a couple of factors to not confuse everyone any more than I have! For instance, their definition of 'realisation of cash flows' is not what the average layman would think it is.

Re: Arvida comparison
Comparing the Arvida offer price to their EV and then saying the EV of OCA would be a fair price is [how to say this politely?] an "interesting" way of looking at it. Especially considering the Arvida Board rejected an earlier offer at the same price. Arvida appear to use the same method of adding DMF and resale gains but I am not sure if the methods underpinning those calculations are identical to OCA's methods. Furthermore, thinking fair value of ARV = ARV EV, therefore fair value of OCA = OCA EV assumes everything else (and I mean everything else) is identical. Such an assumption is [how do I say this politely?] naive.

Good post Ferg.
Does the DMF figures include the future refurb costs?
The management fees you refer to, does that $216M include the cost of administering those services or is a net figure above cost?

Cheers Daytr

[Daytr]

I guess you just hate money. I mean when you have the ability to know the direction of the property market, and not take full advantage of that with leverage, there's no other explanation... Unless you're blowing smoke

If that makes you feel better, believe it.

[tim23]

What i find fascinating is you could buy these shares for 0.64c last month…now people are paying 0.79c

Thats a 23% increase in 1 month
The interest rate has only decreased 0.25%

Surely the sheeple could read any newspaper and see interest rates had peaked and it was only a matter of when they dropped and how much.

The smart money has already moved before today surely.

Need to investigate this winner in your analysis of the fans behaviour for your uk university paper.

edit. Maybe I’m under estimating the ARV buy out bump here.

The Arvida takeover was the catalyst.

[Perky]

Yes, I think you’re clearly right.
Still a 5% move in share price from start of trading today to end …seems a bit of irrational exuberance.
Surprised so many RV stocks jumped on a cut…plenty more pain in economy to come I think.

[winner69]

Last auction...we will never see this dog trading under 80c!!!!

Grab it while still hot!!!!

Yep …..never see OCA under 80 cents again

One can never have too many OCA

[winner69]

As expected that OCR rate cut yesterday has given RV sector share prices a boost

RYM up 5.6% from Tuesday’s close
SUM up 5.5%
OCA up 3.9%

Golly gosh that long standing “pecking order” seems to be still in place ….many metrics over the years come out in that order (RYM/SUM generally outperform ARV/OCA)

There’s a “pecking order” in the NRL as well …… Storm, Panthers generally near the top with Warriors generally near the bottom.

Spooky eh

Tomorrows another day …things might change

[limmy]

Seems to have lost momentum after hitting 80c ?

[Panda-NZ-]

Got to polish up the PR lines to make OCA a takeover target.

This company is strategically positioned in the NZ retirement space.
Ready to leverage the buoyant NZ property market to deliver superior value for the insitutional investor.
Needs-based business offers infrastructure-like stability, a welcome addition to a portfolio.

Meh someone just buyout this company for it's NTA. I'm ready.. :)

[ronaldson]

Seems to have lost momentum after hitting 80c ?

Quite a big volume currently scheduled to go thru at market open at 80c today might suggest otherwise?

[allfromacell]

Yesterday a significant chunk of the 0.80C wall got eaten, it does look likely that we'll be breaking through today. Feels like today will be a good day for OCA.

$1 here we come! Up the Wahs!

[ValueNZ]

Got to polish up the PR lines to make OCA a takeover target.

This company is strategically positioned in the NZ retirement space.
Ready to leverage the buoyant NZ property market to deliver superior value for the insitutional investor.
Needs-based business offers infrastructure-like stability, a welcome addition to a portfolio.

Meh someone just buyout this company for it's NTA. I'm ready.. :)
Stop trying to get rich quick. A buyout at NTA would be too damn low anyway!

[Panda-NZ-]

Yesterday a significant chunk of the 0.80C wall got eaten, it does look likely that we'll be breaking through today. Feels like today will be a good day for OCA.

$1 here we come! Up the Wahs!

Yeah there was 1.2m at 80c at one point.


Stop trying to get rich quick. A buyout at NTA would be too damn low anyway!

Only my mother tells me what to do. :)

[Panda-NZ-]

Once the 280k is cleared it won't take much to zoom to one buck. Maybe even the sharesies crowd could do it.

[winner69]

Fibonacci levels are fascinating ….nature plays a big part in investing …they indicate likely levels of support / resistance as price retraces.

If you take the high of 160 cents and the reçent low of 50 cents as the then the Fibonacci retracement levels are -

76 cents was 23.6% retracement ……about that the other day when rates cut …. Burst through that resistance
92 cents is 38.2% retracement ….heading there now …maybe next week
105 cent is 50% retracement ……not that far off
etc etc

All looking good


Maybe BaaBaa could put up one of his cool charts showing this .. please BaaBaa

[Baa_Baa]

Fibonacci levels are fascinating ….nature plays a big part in investing …they indicate likely levels of support / resistance as price retraces.

If you take the high of 160 cents and the reçent low of 50 cents as the then the Fibonacci retracement levels are -

76 cents was 23.6% retracement ……about that the other day when rates cut …. Burst through that resistance
92 cents is 38.2% retracement ….heading there now …maybe next week
105 cent is 50% retracement ……not that far off
etc etc

All looking good


Maybe BaaBaa could put up one of his cool charts showing this .. please BaaBaa

OCA Fib Retrace https://invst.ly/161w80 Enjoy :)
Also, the Golden Cross (50EMA up through 200EMA) happened on 8th August.

[ValueNZ]

Overthinking, overanalyzing, separates the body from the mind
Withering my intuition, missing opportunities and I must

[winner69]

Overthinking, overanalyzing, separates the body from the mind
Withering my intuition, missing opportunities and I must

So your investment in OCA is based on gut feel rather than any other consideration of what "value" might be.

[Cupsy]

So your investment in OCA is based on gut feel rather than any other consideration of what "value" might be.
He has made it pretty clear he follows the value investment principles imo, seems pretty clear, the user handle says it fairly well I would have thought.

[allfromacell]

Fascinating reading all the posts from when the SP was in the low 50s. I don't like quoting old posts but lots of lessons there.

That chart is beautiful, thanks Baa_Baa

[Leemsip]

market is so boring today got to Winner is stooping to baiting ValueNZ.... need some earnings calls next week so we get some real action.

[winner69]

He has made it pretty clear he follows the value investment principles imo, seems pretty clear, the user handle says it fairly well I would have thought.

Was only responding to Value quoting something about analysing withers one intuition leading to missed opportunities ….

[Cupsy]

market is so boring today got to Winner is stooping to baiting ValueNZ.... need some earnings calls next week so we get some real action.

I don't think he would intentionally bait anyone, he is just in touch with his emotions, and maybe wears his heart on his sleeve.

[Cupsy]

Was only responding to Value quoting something about analysing withers one intuition leading to missed opportunities ….
Oh I just assumed he really liked the band, and the song.

[winner69]

Oh I just assumed he really liked the band, and the song.

Yes, a very overtly intricate song from Tool …..need to listen to listen to it again tonight …though not really a Tool fan

[Greekwatchdog]

Yes, a very overtly intricate song from Tool …..need to listen to listen to it again tonight …though not really a Tool fan

I would have thought you would be watching those duds play tonight.

Down the Wahs

[winner69]

I would have thought you would be watching those duds play tonight.

Down the Wahs

Not a Wahs fan …just a casual interested observer …

[Greekwatchdog]

Not a Wahs fan …just a casual interested observer …

Nope, lost interest in them with all the politics. I don't see a championship team there as players have an issue, mental strength. They are too fragile up top

[ValueNZ]

Was only responding to Value quoting something about analysing withers one intuition leading to missed opportunities ….
The lyrics in the song Lateralus by Tool have the Fibonacci sequence in the Syllables, which is what made me think of the song.

When you look at random sets of data looking for something, you'll be able to find it all over, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily useful information. Hence the Overthinking, overanalysing in the context of TA. The withers my intuition is what is instinctive, you are buying apart of a business so what matters matters is price you pay and the discounted cash flows.

[ValueNZ]

So your investment in OCA is based on gut feel rather than any other consideration of what "value" might be.

Not at all.

You on the other hand? Well. "Cough Cough" ME TODAY

[ValueNZ]

Fascinating reading all the posts from when the SP was in the low 50s. I don't like quoting old posts but lots of lessons there.

That chart is beautiful, thanks Baa_Baa
Not just from when the SP was in the low 50's, but also at the peak in 2021. Look at some of the people who were buying then, who now ghost the thread, or occasionally post about how terrible OCA as a company is.

[winner69]

The lyrics in the song Lateralus by Tool have the Fibonacci sequence in the Syllables, which is what made me think of the song.

When you look at random sets of data looking for something, you'll be able to find it all over, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily useful information. Hence the Overthinking, overanalysing in the context of TA. The withers my intuition is what is instinctive, you are buying apart of a business so what matters matters is price you pay and the discounted cash flows.

Fascinating what you say about that song. Thanks for telling us Value, appreciate it.

"Intuition" got me into Me and intuition along with watching the squiggly line turn down get me out with a profit.

[winner69]

Warriors lose again, this time to Sea Eagles 24-10. The dream of ‘this is our year’ is over for 2024. Fans are gutted but putting on a brave face and saying they’ll keep cheering the team on in the last few games. Loyal fans sticking with Up the Wahs and looking forward to 2025

Oceania share price went ballistic and closed the week up 5 cents at 82 cents. Rate cuts helping the cause. Investors are now talking about where the market might take the share price …like $1.00 and higher. They not saying much about how the company itself is performing …just letting the market reprice the shares.

A casual observer agrees all over for the Warriors this year and thinks next year will be a disappointment as well. Oceania share price on fire but the company itself has to demonstrate in November half year update they deserve the rerating by delivering on their strategy.

[Habits]

The commonality of SP and Warriors was good until Oceania and the rest of our market started to cheer up, the Warriors continued their usual pattern. What the warriors need now is an interest rate cut, a unbiased ref would help. But until then they're going separate ways with OCA weekly wins

[Greekwatchdog]

Warriors lose again, this time to Sea Eagles 24-10. The dream of ‘this is our year’ is over for 2024. Fans are gutted but putting on a brave face and saying they’ll keep cheering the team on in the last few games. Loyal fans sticking with Up the Wahs and looking forward to 2025

Oceania share price went ballistic and closed the week up 5 cents at 82 cents. Rate cuts helping the cause. Investors are now talking about where the market might take the share price …like $1.00 and higher. They not saying much about how the company itself is performing …just letting the market reprice the shares.

A casual observer agrees all over for the Warriors this year and thinks next year will be a disappointment as well. Oceania share price on fire but the company itself has to demonstrate in November half year update they deserve the rerating by delivering on their strategy.

If your expecting a good First Half result in Nov then you will be disappointed, and then you will compare OCA to the highly disappointing Warriors season, can't wait for that. Sigh.

[X-men]

That is not important..the main is the OCR cut....uncle orr said... another 2 cuts this year.

The market is a beast..they are valuing oca in the next 6months to a year

[Daytr]

If your expecting a good First Half result in Nov then you will be disappointed, and then you will compare OCA to the highly disappointing Warriors season, can't wait for that. Sigh.

Well they drew the first half, it was the 2nd half that was disappointing. I'm sure Winner can provide much more detailed analysis. 🤣

[Greekwatchdog]

Well they drew the first half, it was the 2nd half that was disappointing. I'm sure Winner can provide much more detailed analysis. 藍

80 minute game, no points, no finals, just another disappointing season.

[winner69]

Warriors might be looking for new sponsor if Jason reallly peeved

Oceania Warriors sounds good

Betcha plenty of fans in Oceania villages would be cheering them along

[Panda-NZ-]

Rich boomers have cash reserves ($300b) where they will notice the interest rates going down soon.

OCA is a business they will have an affinity with along with their first love of owning an investment property.

[Grimy]

Warriors might be looking for new sponsor if Jason reallly peeved

Oceania Warriors sounds good

Betcha plenty of fans in Oceania villages would be cheering them along

I see Summerset sponsor the NZ GT car race series. Perhaps you can do a correlation of some sort there?
I'm not sure how valuable the coverage/advertising for them there is.

[winner69]

I see Summerset sponsor the NZ GT car race series. Perhaps you can do a correlation of some sort there?
I'm not sure how valuable the coverage/advertising for them there is.

Gave some Summerset residents a real thrill as per Facebook post

Probably more excitment than watching the worms in the worm farm at a Oceania village

[winner69]

I see Summerset sponsor the NZ GT car race series. Perhaps you can do a correlation of some sort there?
I'm not sure how valuable the coverage/advertising for them there is.

Summerset brand manager said -


“As a brand that is about retirement being a time for new adventures and the freedom to pursue your hobbies and passions, partnering with motorsport was a perfect fit."

[Grimy]

Summerset brand manager said -


“As a brand that is about retirement being a time for new adventures and the freedom to pursue your hobbies and passions, partnering with motorsport was a perfect fit."

Maybe a better fit than I first thought. Thanks for those Winner.

[winner69]

Good news from REINZ on July property sales - The total number of properties sold in New Zealand increased by 14.5% year-on-year, from 5,070 to 5,806, and by 19.7% compared to June 2024, from 4,851 to 5,806.

So market activity (number of sales) still pretty robust …getting back to more normal levels

Prices ‘tumbling’ says one commentator ..but activity is key when it comes to Oceania

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Web/Web/News/News-Articles/Market-updates/REINZ-July-2024-data-Green-shoots-appear-in-New-Zealands-property-market.aspx?name=REINZ-July-2024-data-Green-shoots-appear-in-New-Zealands-property-market

[thegreatestben]

New CEO getting straight to business.
https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/436401

[winner69]

Talking of sales Suzanne obviously has quickly noticed sales efforts not what they should be and appointing a Chief Sales and Marketing role reporting to CEO.

Good to see she going to ‘sharpen their focus’ on sales

And Anita already left the premises

OCEANIA ANNOUNCES EXECUTIVE TEAM CHANGES

Oceania Healthcare Limited (NZX, ASX, OCA) advises changes to the executive team including the disestablishment of the Chief Operating Officer role.

A new executive position Chief Sales and Marketing Officer has been created. As part of this change, the Operational Team will temporarily report to Andrew Buckingham, Chief Property Officer and Clinical Care will report to the Chief Executive Officer.

Suzanne Dvorak, CEO said that “These structural changes are designed to sharpen our focus on sales and clinical care, setting us up for future strategic growth. Additionally, we're considering other functional changes to best position us for the future. The newly created Chief Sales and Marketing Officer will have full responsibility and accountability for Sales & Marketing. The elevation of sales to the executive level will provide renewed focus for Oceania in this key area.”

As part of this restructure, Anita Hawthorne concluded her role at Oceania Healthcare on Friday, 16 August 2024. The Board thanks Anita for her contribution to Oceania.

[winner69]

Didn’t we all get excited a few months ago when they appointed a new Sales Manager

Wonder what’s happened to her

[Rawz]

Straight out of the new CEO playbook.

[winner69]

The new GM of Sales, big ask.
15073


Wonder if Fiona is the new Chief Sales …or is she just a has been now?

[winner69]

Straight out of the new CEO playbook.

What’s on next page …a whole lot of writedowns or something

[bull....]

bit of a worry when they create a new position for sales :scared: must be sh.t at the moment ?

[bull....]

bit of a worry when they create a new position for sales :scared: must be sh.t at the moment ?

sh.it sales ?

[Panda-NZ-]

Customers will come to them for their needs based service.

Still, may as well add to the clutter on daytime TV about seniors funeral insurance, life cover, mixed in with some cultural awareness ads funded by govt.

[ronaldson]

Last 5 trading days have averaged a 1c per day increase in the on-market price. Is there a slow realisation this stock is undervalued?

[bottomfeeder]

Last 5 trading days have averaged a 1c per day increase in the on-market price. Is there a slow realisation this stock is undervalued?

Certainly "was undervalued" markedly. Needs reinstatement of dividend to bring it where it should be.

[Panda-NZ-]

Moreso interest rates.

And an institutional investor may run the ruler over this soon..good value for someone with patience.

[bull....]

since this is the home of the warriors

It will be sad': Shaun Johnson on final Warriors home game
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/08/20/it-will-be-sad-shaun-johnson-on-final-warriors-home-game/

be a big one eh OCA might hit 90 on the win

[winner69]

since this is the home of the warriors

It will be sad': Shaun Johnson on final Warriors home game
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/08/20/it-will-be-sad-shaun-johnson-on-final-warriors-home-game/

be a big one eh OCA might hit 90 on the win

Yep, Warriors getting rid of the those who are past their best and hung around too long …….but like Brett ‘deciding’ to resign and that Anita been told don’t come Monday. They say new blood usually improves performance.

Maybe Helier will be renamed Brent's Palace for a week or so

[bottomfeeder]

Moreso interest rates.

And an institutional investor may run the ruler over this soon..good value for someone with patience.
A lot of hype about reserve bank lowering the cash rate. Word on the street and in the US is that inflation has not been beaten yet.

[peat]

hobsonville not ready till later this year?

[winner69]

Warriors lose again, this time to Bulldogs 34-18. Fans not happy as it was the refs fault once again. Team played well but you can’t beat the ref. Fans turned out en masse to see Shaun’s last game and went home thinking 2025 could be their year even without Shaun annd after they’ve made a few changes to the team and strategy. All is not lost UP THE WAHS

Oceania’s share price was up 2 cents and closed at 84 cents. At least the market (ref) not holding them back these days …increases nothing to do with company performance.. Fans been pretty quiet this week, suppose they are still revelling in these new good times. The new boss made some team changes this week as she was probably aware that Oceania has to prove themselves if the share price is going to worthy of ‘this is our year’ status.

Casual observer says it’s all over this year for the Wahs and fundamentally they need to improve if 2025 is not going to go the same way. Oceania is being buoyed by a favourable market but that can change quickly so they still need to demonstrate that they are a good company worthy of a rerating ….will that come in November half year announcement?

[Daytr]

Warriors lose again, this time to Bulldogs 34-18. Fans not happy as it was the refs fault once again. Team played well but you can’t beat the ref. Fans turned out en masse to see Shaun’s last game and went home thinking 2025 could be their year even without Shaun annd after they’ve made a few changes to the team and strategy. All is not lost UP THE WAHS

Oceania’s share price was up 2 cents and closed at 84 cents. At least the market (ref) not holding them back these days …increases nothing to do with company performance.. Fans been pretty quiet this week, suppose they are still revelling in these new good times. The new boss made some team changes this week as she was probably aware that Oceania has to prove themselves if the share price is going to worthy of ‘this is our year’ status.

Casual observer says it’s all over this year for the Wahs and fundamentally they need to improve if 2025 is not going to go the same way. Oceania is being buoyed by a favourable market but that can change quickly so they still need to demonstrate that they are a good company worthy of a rerating ….will that come in November half year announcement?

On point summary Winner as always.
You may have your critics but that's only because they are true OCA fans that only see the upside. 😉

Market conditions may well mask team performance for 2025, perhaps a bit like having the wind in the first half only to find it's done a 180 in the 2nd.

[ValueNZ]

On point summary Winner as always.
You may have your critics but that's only because they are true OCA fans that only see the upside. 

Market conditions may well mask team performance for 2025, perhaps a bit like having the wind in the first half only to find it's done a 180 in the 2nd.
Still holding out for the magical 42c Daytr? :D

[Ferg]

Can we take the rugby league commentary to an off topic thread and area?
It has no place here.
Thanks.

[Greekwatchdog]

Can we take the rugby league commentary to an off topic thread and area?
It has no place here.
Thanks.

Couldn't agree more. Make me wonder what sort of commentary we get should OCA give us a mediocre half year result in November.

[winner69]

Couldn't agree more. Make me wonder what sort of commentary we get should OCA give us a mediocre half year result in November.

All the signs are suggesting that be case in November

SUM report next week ...might give us some insights

[Daytr]

Still holding out for the magical 42c Daytr? :D

You really didn't understand the humour in that post and repeating over & over is not doing you any favours. It's a very good book. Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy

[Greekwatchdog]

All the signs are suggesting that be case in November

SUM report next week ...might give us some insights

Maybe not as it will only cover first 3 months of year for OCA. Whilst in same sector they are quite different. We may get an idea on how sales are going but I suspect market is already looking thru that towards first half of 25.

[Cupsy]

Can we take the rugby league commentary to an off topic thread and area?
It has no place here.
Thanks.
I agree, perhaps a fandom thread somewhere else

[thegreatestben]

Also not a fan

[winner69]

You really didn't understand the humour in that post and repeating over & over is not doing you any favours. It's a very good book. Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy

OCA share price today 84 cents .... Deep Thought says thats twice 42 ....must mean something

Spooky

[Daytr]

OCA share price today 84 cents .... Deep Thought says thats twice 42 ....must mean something

Spooky

That's the answer, but no one knew the original question. 🤣

[Bjauck]

OCA share price today 84 cents .... Deep Thought says thats twice 42 ....must mean something

Spooky Yikes, a cosmic alignment has arrived. This OCA thread has resulted in the answers to everything in this Universe and for an alternative one too! Next stop on the hyperspace by-pass is $1.26.

[davflaws]

Yikes, a cosmic alignment has arrived. This OCA thread has resulted in the answers to everything in this Universe and for an alternative one too! Next stop on the hyperspace by-pass is $1.26.
Engage the improbability drive!

[Curly]

Engage the improbability drive!
Should be there now based on Arvida’s price.

[winner69]

Should be there now based on Arvida’s price.

Good old saying in price is what you pay, value is what you want the spreadsheet to come up with.

[Panda-NZ-]

Engage the improbability drive!

Wee.
Need to focus the orbital laser on the one buck. No doubt another 1mil units on the sell side as humans like really simple numbers (can't sell at 99c).

[Daytr]

Weee.
Need to focus the orbital laser on one buck. No doubt another 1mil units on the sell side as humans like really simple numbers (can't sell at 99c).

I never like round numbers for that very reason.

[limmy]

Took profit at 0.84 already. May decide to sell more, recovering all my original capital and leave the profits as freebies within my portfolio which contains other freebie stocks.

[winner69]

Should be there now based on Arvida’s price.

There being $1.26 …..so you really saying only real hope for a decent OCA share price is for a takeover to happen

[Curly]

There being $1.26 …..so you really saying only real hope for a decent OCA share price is for a takeover to happen
No, a successful takeover would rob shareholders of OCAs true future share value. However, given the extent of directors with skin in the game I would hope they would not allow a takeover to succeed as Arvida did. A takeover attempt would not necessarily be a bad thing as it would clarify the true value of OCAs share price as it has done for Arvida.

[thegreatestben]

No, a successful takeover would rob shareholders of OCAs true future share value. However, given the extent of directors with skin in the game I would hope they would not allow a takeover to succeed as Arvida did. A takeover attempt would not necessarily be a bad thing as it would clarify the true value of OCAs share price as it has done for Arvida.

I concur with this, the worst thing that could happen for me would be to lose the ability for OCA to be a long term investment. I was looking at the top shareholder list this morning and I like to think there's enough players there to fend off any quick sugar hits.

[Daytr]

I concur with this, the worst thing that could happen for me would be to lose the ability for OCA to be a long term investment. I was looking at the top shareholder list this morning and I like to think there's enough players there to fend off any quick sugar hits.

So you are saying that you couldn't take a quick 50% gain from the current share price and 150% increase from the lows & find a place to reinvest that money elsewhere?

Wow!

[winner69]

Could say unless there’s are ‘greater fool’ around a takeover is unlikely in short term

[Panda-NZ-]

No, a successful takeover would rob shareholders of OCAs true future share value.

When are we going to see that... 2030.

Give me money. Ideally now or in the short-medium term. I'm selling otherwise.

[Rawz]

I listened to this podcast Investing Across the Life Cycle w/ Aswath Damodaran (theinvestorspodcast.com) (https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/investing-across-the-life-cycle-aswath-damodaran/) yesterday while cleaning the house.

Thought I would share it as people are talking about long term holds.

The podcast explores the different stages a company goes through over the years and talks about investing in these stages. the guest wasnt a fan of holding forever and used an example of his holding in amazon which he bought 8 times and sold 7 times.

[thegreatestben]

So you are saying that you couldn't take a quick 50% gain from the current share price and 150% increase from the lows & find a place to reinvest that money elsewhere?

Wow!

OCA for me is a long term, I'm not incensed by it being something other than that. Seeing Limmy take a profit just posts above for example, good for him.

[winner69]

Scott on Summerset's half year result -

Scoullar said getting closer to the upper end of the guidance was because of a lot of incoming residents selling their homes and moving in at a faster-than-expected rate.

That bodes well for Oceania first half performance

[daveypnz]

Need some enthusiasm to push through 0.85

[winner69]

From SUM half year ….Care Revenues up 22% but Care Expenses up 30% …….pushes EBITDA into negative territory

Govt subsidy increase not high enough

Doesn’t bode well for Oceania half year announcement come November

[winner69]

Another award coming up for The Helier and Oceania

https://bestawards.co.nz/spatial/healthcare-wellbeing/peddlethorp-1/the-helier/?fbclid=IwY2xjawE6HYhleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHeKDiAmyI4VI 1R0CTukgy50zSrOwtzuOdAneYGLOXCVcGyNxGg-wLPezqQ_aem_Spb16XWK5XRNQTGOV7Hozg

[bull....]

From SUM half year ….Care Revenues up 22% but Care Expenses up 30% …….pushes EBITDA into negative territory

Govt subsidy increase not high enough

Doesn’t bode well for Oceania half year announcement come November

yep sum mentioned care was bad for margins

[winner69]

Metlife Care posted a solid result / performance. ….and making good use of the $2.5 billion float

Bodes well for Oceania reporting in November

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/436974/425828.pdf

[Perky]

Thanks for posting. Bull will be along shortly to point out net gearing 39.6% is worst in sector ( if I remember correctly) and even higher than that dog share OCA.

[Greekwatchdog]

Thanks for posting. Bull will be along shortly to point out net gearing 39.6% is worst in sector ( if I remember correctly) and even higher than that dog share OCA.

Yes and he will also fail to look into that the interest on that debt is very low and not sure to expire until 2028. Good/Bad management. You be the judge

[Greekwatchdog]

Look here the ex boss sold some.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/436967/attachment/425832/436967-425832.pdf

[Rawz]

Look here the ex boss sold some.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/436967/attachment/425832/436967-425832.pdf

looks like lapse of options?

he would never sell something so undervalued...?

[Bjauck]

Look here the ex boss sold some.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/436967/attachment/425832/436967-425832.pdf You need to read the linked item to make sure your heading is not deceptive.

[Greekwatchdog]

You need to read the linked item to make sure your heading is not deceptive.

Sorry yes.

[X-men]

Surely OCA will benefit if Arvida delisted?

[winner69]

Yes and he will also fail to look into that the interest on that debt is very low and not sure to expire until 2028. Good/Bad management. You be the judge

Good/bad management …I’d say lucky with the timing

[Greekwatchdog]

Good/bad management …I’d say lucky with the timing

There is something to understand where the market was at Winner and knowing what was going to happen. My call is Good Management and happy with it. Now time to reduce it. Lets see if they can do it.

[winner69]

There is something to understand where the market was at Winner and knowing what was going to happen. My call is Good Management and happy with it. Now time to reduce it. Lets see if they can do it.


I still say good fortune (rather than lucky) ….. their capex spend was increasing at quite a rate through 21 and 22 and they made a couple of acquisitions .,,,,, needed cash so followed the.
trend set by others and issued bonds (as well as a capital raise) along with increased bank debt.

I say timing was very fortunate in that rates were low at the time

I say we agree to disagree eh

[Cupsy]

I still say good fortune (rather than lucky) ….. their capex spend was increasing at quite a rate through 21 and 22 and they acquired a few things .,,,,, needed cash so followed then trend and issued bonds (as well as a capital raise) along with increased bank debt.

I say timing wasvp fortunate in that rates were low.

I say we agree to disagree eh

Your post seems a little jaded.

[ronaldson]

Surely OCA will benefit if Arvida delisted?

Interesting thought, given the quantum of funds to be reinvested.

I looked at the 5YR charts for RYM, SUM, OCA and ARV itself in and around late October 2020 when MetLifeCare was delisted due to the takeover and it is clear RV stocks were rising sharply in the lead up when the offer terms (ultimately reduced from $7 to $6 ) were known, but it is difficult to gain full insight due to the price recovery then in progress from Covid lows. The impact once the offer consideration was actually paid is less obvious as momentum was starting to stall.

[limmy]

I should clarify that I do see future potential in OCA. I've only sold about 40% of my original holding in OCA. There is a good chance that the Fed Reserve will cut interest rates in September, following which our own Reserve Bank will be likely to follow suit. Hence there is a good possibly of further price gains in OCA. I sold 40% of my OCA to reduce my overall exposure to equities, along with other stocks that I also own as a defensive approach against the current volatile situation in the northern hemisphere. I first bought my OCA shares in April 2022 at $1.05, and continued to buy in 2023 and 2024. OCA has been a loss making stock from the start till this month. Hence, it was time for me to reduce exposure. Hope this helps ?


OCA for me is a long term, I'm not incensed by it being something other than that. Seeing Limmy take a profit just posts above for example, good for him.

[ronaldson]

Another SPH Notice from ForBar today indicating they/associates have acquired another 1% of OCA, being roughly 7.3m shares, in the last four weeks or so. So they have picked the recent market price uptick/reset.

[winner69]

Extended hours on NZX today. …often see weird things happen to OCA share price on these days

Might close at 91 cents

[limmy]

Extended hours on NZX today. …often see weird things happen to OCA share price on these days

Might close at 91 cents
Almost the reverse has happened. Closed at 0.81.

[winner69]

Almost the reverse has happened. Closed at 0.81.

Bugger eh …but’ll open at 84 next week

[limmy]

Bugger eh …but’ll open at 84 next week Especially after For Barr has just increased their holding by 1%

[winner69]

Bugger eh …but’ll open at 84 next week

Got to put the Arvida money somewhere eh

[bottomfeeder]

Almost the reverse has happened. Closed at 0.81.

Perhaps Forsyth has had their fill. May see the SP go back to .70. Forsyth will now sit back and wait for the takeover offer to come in.

[limmy]

Perhaps Forsyth has had their fill. May see the SP go back to .70. Forsyth will now sit back and wait for the takeover offer to come in.
That's possible too.

[winner69]

Warriors had a last gasp 30-28 win over Sharks last night. Sent retiring guys out in a blaze of glory and cheered the fans up. They now reflect on what could have been if things had gone their way throughout the season. ….and looking forward to next year being ‘it’s our year’.

Oceania share price fell 3 cents this week to close at 81 cents. Followers were rather quiet this week but a few reminded all the future is all good. Bit of a void at the moment with no company news until November so share price wil be driven by market sentiment.

Casual Observer says Warriors will reflect on the year that was and bulk up their talent for next season. Oceania share price dependent on market sentiment and hopefully they’ll produce a good result in November.

Next month or two going to be a quiet time for both Warrior/Oceania fans/followers

[winner69]

Ryman seem to be finding sales hardtop come by in these ‘challenging’ times and even say ““Given the continued uncertainty around market conditions in the near term, we believe a prudent step is to seek amendments to some of our financial covenant levels for upcoming testing periods. We are in positive discussions with our lenders who remain very supportive of the business. We expect to update the market on the outcome of this in the coming weeks.”

This doesn’t bode well for OCA half year announcement

In a few years time though OCA might benefit from RYM putting prices uo

[X-men]

Look like buyers are thinning out ..79c next support

[winner69]

Development not keeping up with demand in sector say JLL …..report here and lots of charts to salivate over
https://www.jll.nz/content/dam/jll-com/documents/pdf/research/apac/new-zealand/jll-research-retirement-village-whitepaper-2024.pdf

And a Retirement Commision study shows with the declines in home ownership and an ageing population modelling predicts there will be around 600,000 New Zealanders aged 65 and over needing to rent a home by 2048 – a 100% increase on 2022 levels.

The silver tsunami going to make things difficult in NZ for both old home owners and renters

[Perky]

Interesting..

If you bought ARV for $1.70 and then found some loose change down the back of the couch and bought OCA for $1.20 and created a business called ARVOCA which cost you $2.90

You would have a similar size business to RYM or SUM at a pretty good price.
No exposure to Australia…but maybe that’s an advantage?

[X-men]

No support...sp could dip back under 80c

[winner69]

No support...sp could dip back under 80c


Sure has X-nen …it’s 78c at the moment

Maybe punters worried there might be a capital raise soon …… esp since that topic seems to building steam with RYM after their announcement yesterday

[Daytr]

Interesting..

If you bought ARV for $1.70 and then found some loose change down the back of the couch and bought OCA for $1.20 and created a business called ARVOCA which cost you $2.90

You would have a similar size business to RYM or SUM at a pretty good price.
No exposure to Australia…but maybe that’s an advantage?

I think exposure to Australia has been a good thing as their property market hasn't had the same slowdown as NZ has.

Also RYM have a considerably lower staff per resident ratio than OCA, not sure about ARV.

[bottomfeeder]

Sure has X-nen …it’s 78c at the moment

Maybe punters worried there might be a capital raise soon …… esp since that topic seems to building steam with RYM after their announcement yesterday

Out come the naysayers. The old capital raise? again. I think its the old pump and dump. Sold quite a lot in the eighties, will be looking to buy back in the middle sixties.

[winner69]

Seems few Warriors fans have lost the faith after this bad season and moving on ……but if next season starts OK they’ll be back

Maybe that’s what happening with some Oceania supporters now …. had enough and selling up. But they might rejoin the fan club if things look better in the future

[winner69]

Out come the naysayers. The old capital raise? again. I think its the old pump and dump. Sold quite a lot in the eighties, will be looking to buy back in the middle sixties.

Not waiting for 42 cents ……

[bottomfeeder]

Not waiting for 42 cents ……
Its so hard to pick a bottom. Have to start somewhere and follow the falling knife. Maybe a bit premature, rising ever so slightly.

[winner69]

Out come the naysayers. The old capital raise? again. I think its the old pump and dump. Sold quite a lot in the eighties, will be looking to buy back in the middle sixties.

Debt was up to 38.3% at March

Probably higher now but need to wait until November to find out

Wouldn't surprise me punters are getting a bit worried

[X-men]

Well .if OCA needs to raise capital...it is better now or never....while the sp still 80c... better than before