OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ValueNZ]

You're giving the market too much credit, Winner. The NZX has a poor track record when it comes to pricing equities, especially for stocks like OCA with relatively low liquidity. Just a few months ago, the market valued OCA at a market cap of only $370 million, despite having net assets of over $1 billion. It was practically free money for anyone with an ounce of courage.

It's surprising to see this thread almost fall off the first page. All the bears have gone extinct, it’s a shame because their posts were quite entertaining to read.
We must be nearing the end of the Sharetrader cycle. We've already got a few bears on board. Just watch this thread go bananas over the stock - what people here wouldn't touch at 50 cents, they'll be ecstatic to pick up for $1+. And I'll be damn sure to bring up their old posts.

[X-men]

Last auction!!! OCR meeting next week

[Habits]

We must be nearing the end of the Sharetrader cycle. We've already got a few bears on board. Just watch this thread go bananas over the stock - what people here wouldn't touch at 50 cents, they'll be ecstatic to pick up for $1+. And I'll be damn sure to bring up their old posts.

Yeah whatever, you already know how investors are erratic, so whats the point of being a smart arse about it, unless of course they are in denial

[Daytr]

You're giving the market too much credit, Winner. The NZX has a poor track record when it comes to pricing equities, especially for stocks like OCA with relatively low liquidity. Just a few months ago, the market valued OCA at a market cap of only $370 million, despite having net assets of over $1 billion. It was practically free money for anyone with an ounce of courage.

It's surprising to see this thread almost fall off the first page. All the bears have gone extinct, it’s a shame because their posts were quite entertaining to read.

Agreed as the market certainly over valued it at $1.60.

Hey but nothing has changed right?
Except what is external to the company....
The real test will come with the next company results to see if there is an improvement or the bottom line has continued to deteriorate.

Is Orr prepared to front run the US on rates? Maybe. We will see this coming week.

[Baa_Baa]

$557m market cap vs $2800m total assets 🤣

[Greekwatchdog]

Agreed as the market certainly over valued it at $1.60.

Hey but nothing has changed right?
Except what is external to the company....
The real test will come with the next company results to see if there is an improvement or the bottom line has continued to deteriorate.

Is Orr prepared to front run the US on rates? Maybe. We will see this coming week.

Remember that $1.60 came when Assets were inflated because of Covid. Go look at how the whole market was priced then They borrowed cheap to build at a very low interest rates that don't mature until 2028. Great work by management for me. As for the share price, for those who have added at the lows great work, enjoy your reward when you sell

I will open the OCA draw when I sip my 2013 Te Mata Coleraine.

[Daytr]

$557m market cap vs $2800m total assets 🤣

Really!
Wow just highlights how big their liabilities are.

[Daytr]

Remember that $1.60 came when Assets were inflated because of Covid. Go look at how the whole market was priced then They borrowed cheap to build at a very low interest rates that don't mature until 2028. Great work by management for me. As for the share price, for those who have added at the lows great work, enjoy your reward when you sell

I will open the OCA draw when I sip my 2013 Te Mata Coleraine.

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Agreed they structured their borrowing well, but they haven't reduced it, in fact it's increased which could be a problem depending on where rates are when it's time to roll it.

[Baa_Baa]

Check out these tailwinds

[Greekwatchdog]

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Agreed they structured their borrowing well, but they haven't reduced it, in fact it's increased which could be a problem depending on where rates are when it's time to roll it.

None of the stocks were worth what the were trading at, just the way the crazy market was.

I am expecting debt to start reducing from now, more weighted to 2nd half, but only the Senior management and board no that.

[Greekwatchdog]

Check out these tailwinds

The tsunami is coming

[Cupsy]

The tsunami is coming

Wow that sounds ominous, and is that bad for oca? (tsunamis generally are not good are they?)

[Greekwatchdog]

Wow that sounds ominous, and is that bad for oca? (tsunamis generally are not good are they?)

This will be good for the sector

[ValueNZ]

Yep, but it wasn't worth $1.60.
Correct.

It was probably worth well north of that.

[Daytr]

Correct.

It was probably worth well north of that.

Funny guy, if you want to be taken seriously I suggest not posting crap.

[ValueNZ]

Funny guy, if you want to be taken seriously I suggest not posting crap.
Not posting crap :scared:

And I seriously could care less if I'm taken seriously on an anonymous forum

[ValueNZ]

Really!
Wow just highlights how big their liabilities are.
Those "liabilities" are better than equity. :scared:

[Habits]

Check out these tailwinds

I used to think I wanted to live forever (100+), I cant see myself lasting anywhere near that. People I know who have lived a healthy lifestyle are actually worn out and dying early 80s

[Baa_Baa]

Those "liabilities" are better than equity. :scared:

This seems to be a difficult concept for some to get their heads around, just because accounting standards insist on ORA being held on Balance Sheet as a liability.

They would rather focus on minutiae of operational cashflows, of 'care' that isn't the real business (property), or the debt which is well within acceptable norms of large scale property developers and easily sustainable at secured interest rates.

They seem immune to any notion of the ORA being non-callable, ever-growing, never repaid by company shareholders, held at no interest, and leveragable for growth. Or the tailwind of massive increases in addressable market for decades to come.

All because they don't like the person who brought it to their attention, when actually it's been in plain sight since RYM invented it decades ago.

[Daytr]

This seems to be a difficult concept for some to get their heads around, just because accounting standards insist on ORA being held on Balance Sheet as a liability.

They would rather focus on minutiae of operational cashflows, of 'care' that isn't the real business (property), or the debt which is well within acceptable norms of large scale property developers and easily sustainable at secured interest rates.

They seem immune to any notion of the ORA being non-callable, ever-growing, never repaid by company shareholders, held at no interest, and leveragable for growth. Or the tailwind of massive increases in addressable market for decades to come.

All because they don't like the person who brought it to their attention, when actually it's been in plain sight since RYM invented it decades ago.

Baa_Baa you have a vivid imagination.
Making up the rationale of others.
You are talented.

[Baa_Baa]

Baa_Baa you have a vivid imagination.
Making up the rational of others.
You are talented.

Thank you Daytr, but I don't need others to rationalise OCA to make my investment decisions, nor do I need to imagine anything. It's all there in the numbers, plain and simple. I do have a large stake, relatively, which is doing very well thanks to the 'market' which in these early recovery days has realised it seems, that an ARV buyout at 0.83 (to them) is a good deal, but to me it's a cheap as cop out.

We know you don't like the protagonist, but it'd be no reason not to look a bit deeper into why these RV's will be super successful for shareholders in the medium to longer term. And the market cotinues to gift us unimaginably low entry and accumulation prices.

[X-men]

OCR cut next week? Exciting!

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129057/david-hargreaves-previews-forthcoming-ocr-review-which-all-attention-revolves-around

[Daytr]

Thank you Daytr, but I don't need others to rationalise OCA to make my investment decisions, nor do I need to imagine anything. It's all there in the numbers, plain and simple. I do have a large stake, relatively, which is doing very well thanks to the 'market' which in these early recovery days has realised it seems, that an ARV buyout at 0.83 (to them) is a good deal, but to me it's a cheap as cop out.

We know you don't like the protagonist, but it'd be no reason not to look a bit deeper into why these RV's will be super successful for shareholders in the medium to longer term. And the market cotinues to gift us unimaginably low entry and accumulation prices.

My comment had nothing to do with value or the company, just your last paragraph where you seem to think you know what other people think. As I said, talented! 😅

Remember my valuation back 4 - 5 months ago was 99c and that's when most were saying no interest rate cuts to at least mid 2025.

If sales pick up which they should it will have a dramatic improvement on company performance, hey but that's the macro. But it might also paper over the cracks.

They still need to work on what they are returning on assets. Apparently to some that doesn't matter. 🙄

[ValueNZ]

They still need to work on what they are returning on assets. Apparently to some that doesn't matter. 
Of course a RoA is important! It's just that we don't extrapolate a couple bad years of earnings out to infinitum to determine what these RV's are worth.

Historically these RV companies have a rather poor return on assets, mid single digits, but their RoE have been excellent due to the leverage effect of the ORAs.

The float ain't worth sh1t if they can't make a return on it.

[winner69]

…..if sales pick up which they should it will have a dramatic improvement on company performance, hey but that's the macro. But it might also paper over the cracks.

……


Hope the new CEO doesn’t find too many cracks and do something about them with big write downs.

Apparently Suzanne found a big crack at Bupa a few years ago which cost them about $25m

[thebusinessman]

Of course a RoA is important! It's just that we don't extrapolate a couple bad years of earnings out to infinitum to determine what these RV's are worth.

Historically these RV companies have a rather poor return on assets, mid single digits, but their RoE have been excellent due to the leverage effect of the ORAs.

The float ain't worth sh1t if they can't make a return on it.

I may have missed a press release but are we all ignoring the fact that SailorRob has ValueNZ's login details and now just posts his usual style and substance under Value's username?

[mike2020]

I may have missed a press release but are we all ignoring the fact that SailorRob has ValueNZ's login details and now just posts his usual style and substance under Value's username?

Not even close to the same detailed analysis sr offered.

[ValueNZ]

Not even close to the same detailed analysis sr offered.
Yeah true.

But my posts aren't nearly as insufferable to read as yours are.

[winner69]

Heartbreak for Warriors as they go down 34-32 in extra time to the Dolphins. Big comeback to draw level after normal time but effort to no avail. Fans are gutted but some are still in hope that miracles happen and this will still ‘be our year’ …other fans are more realistic and accept this is not to be but say we have the team blah blah and 2025 will be the ‘this is our year’. UP THE WAHS …maybe not.

Oceania share price was down 2 cents last week and closed at 77 cents. Fans were rather quiet, probably still basking in the glory of the last few weeks. However the cheerleaders came out at end of week reminding us of the impending tailwinds like next weeks rate cut etc and there was even mention of tsunamis. So the future is looking all good and the next step up is imminent. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

A casual observer would say ‘this is our year’ is all over for the Warriors and looking a bit uncertain for Oceania who need a lot of external factors to go their way….and w won’t be hearing anything from the company itself until November so hoping things are actually going OK

[mike2020]

Yeah true.

But my posts aren't nearly as insufferable to read as yours are.

Not always true. Unnecessary jibe though it was a simple statement of fact.

[winner69]

OCR could be cut by 50 basis points to 5.00%. ..l with more to come later in year

That’ll see OCA share price soar

[Antipodean]

OCR could be cut by 50 basis points to 5.00%. ..l with more to come later in year

That’ll see OCR share price soar

OCR has a share price? Where do I sign up?

[winner69]

OCR has a share price? Where do I sign up?

Ha ha …funny what predictive text does ..or maybe just my bad

Then again OCR could mean Oceania Capital Raise

[Greekwatchdog]

Heartbreak for Warriors as they go down 34-32 in extra time to the Dolphins. Big comeback to draw level after normal time but effort to no avail. Fans are gutted but some are still in hope that miracles happen and this will still ‘be our year’ …other fans are more realistic and accept this is not to be but say we have the team blah blah and 2025 will be the ‘this is our year’. UP THE WAHS …maybe not.

Oceania share price was down 2 cents last week and closed at 77 cents. Fans were rather quiet, probably still basking in the glory of the last few weeks. However the cheerleaders came out at end of week reminding us of the impending tailwinds like next weeks rate cut etc and there was even mention of tsunamis. So the future is looking all good and the next step up is imminent. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

A casual observer would say ‘this is our year’ is all over for the Warriors and looking a bit uncertain for Oceania who need a lot of external factors to go their way….and w won’t be hearing anything from the company itself until November so hoping things are actually going OK

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

[Ferg]

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

Yeah I'm not understanding the link to the Warriors. Winner has previously said something about it being a study into the psyche of supporters but I'm still not getting the relevance and I'm not seeing any 'cheerleading' as such. But I suppose it is interesting to know what is happening with a rugby league team I neither support nor follow, but the relevance to OCA is a bit tenuous.

[Perky]

im emotionally invested in the wahs and financially invested in OCA.

What they both need to be successful is a “kicker”

The wahs have not iced several games this year by missing goal kicks in regular time and field goals in golden point..
They need to go back to the All Blacks mantra of the 1980s where the first player picked was G Fox…goal kicker

OCA needs some financial kicker to get their sales humming.

I think once the “kicker” kicks in Winner can report much better Monday morning debriefs…lol

What a Kicker Does and How It WorksKickers are characteristics that are introduced to a transaction in order to "get the deal done," since they are only for the advantage of lenders and are used to increase the anticipated return on their investment (ROI).

[Daytr]

Interesting no one said this was OCA's year and to be honest I would rather invest in OCA than support a bunch of wannbes like the Warriors. Down the Wahs.

No sense of humour this one.


Yeah I'm not understanding the link to the Warriors. Winner has previously said something about it being a study into the psyche of supporters but I'm still not getting the relevance and I'm not seeing any 'cheerleading' as such. But I suppose it is interesting to know what is happening with a rugby league team I neither support nor follow, but the relevance to OCA is a bit tenuous.

Really? To anyone without an axe to grind its obvious. I don't have a position and see the stock value higher over time but still can easily spot the over exuberance of some and irrational cheer leading of others.

It wasn't long ago that a certain prolific poster and super fan was posting that up was down and basically nothing could go wrong. Bad new was good news, it didn't matter if they lost money day to day.
I could go on. And he wasn't alone.

New sales, oRAs, resales, DMF, non-callable loans, interest free, I'm sure I have missed something...
It's just amazing with all that going for it that OCA isn't valued at $5 Bln. 🤣

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064778]No sense of humour this one.


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1064778]No sense of humour this one.


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

I'm wrong & then you go and confirm I'm right.
Sounds like you are wound up a bit tight mate. Lighten up.

[blackcap]

Time to lighten up people. Some non PC jokes.

https://goodoil.news/comedy-corner-offensive-fun-244/

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1064787]

I'm wrong & then you go and confirm I'm right.
Sounds like you are wound up a bit tight mate. Lighten up.

Ah ha, how did you make that sort of assumption? Trying to read between the lines? LMAO

[winner69]

Duplicated ……

[winner69]

[QUOTE]


Wrong daytrader. Who wants to be compared to 25+ years of failure? What have they won? Nothing. Just someone someone trying to be a smart arse. The jokes on the, Down the Wahs again!!!

Could say even though the Warriors have won nothing big for 25+ years they have a loyal and faithful fan base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year now but the fans believe they have the goods to be champs next year

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

[Daytr]

Ruins the joke when you have to explain it Winner. But keep up the routine, you'll make the Edinburgh Festival yet.

[winner69]

Ruins the joke when you have to explain it Winner. But keep up the routine, you'll make the Edinburgh Festival yet.

No daytr no Edinburgh festival for me …leave that honour to Melanie …she’s pretty cool and kicking up acstorm.

Aiming much higher ….. a published academic paper from London School of Economics

[Greekwatchdog]

[QUOTE=Greekwatchdog;1064787]

Could say even though the Warriors have won nothing big for 25+ years they have a loyal and faithful fan base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year now but the fans believe they have the goods to be champs next year

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

We all know that OCA was going to be a slow burner W69. For gods sake they were repositioning the portfolio just before covid, then wallop.

Nothings changed except the short term trader looking for a quick dollar, and you momentum whingers being unhappy with the share performance as for whatever reason the share price didn't do what you were lot were expecting.

Go figure.

[Cupsy]

Could say that Oceania share price has gone nowhere for 7+ years and they have a loyal and faithful shareholder base who live in hope that that will change ….maybe not this year but those fans believe Oceania have the goods and next year will be the year when they will get rich

Except "they" is not everyone, for those others who are interested in understanding the embedded value in the business, as opposed to share price action alone, it is not quite the flipflopping bandwagon fandom.

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=winner69;1064802]

We all know that OCA was going to be a slow burner W69. For gods sake they were repositioning the portfolio just before covid, then wallop.

Nothings changed except the short term trader looking for a quick dollar, and you momentum whingers being unhappy with the share performance as for whatever reason the share price didn't do what you were lot were expecting.

Go figure.

That's one way of looking at it.
Another is you could have had your money elsewhere for the last 7 years, doubled it and invested now in OCA at the same level, or perhaps 1/3rd lower only a few weeks ago.

[Ferg]

I am curious to know who here has been holding OCA since it listed? That might explain the posts of some versus others who bought much later.