OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Greekwatchdog]

Agree Ferg about the ‘poorly worded’ view

I understand the extract posted here is from a much fuller report.

In my opinion that extract is not how FB analysts usually write / comment …..to the extent it just does not seem to be there doing.

A couple of posters have mentioned was it AÍ generated?

So I have asked FB (after outlining what I think) ‘ …do any of your analysts use AÍ to generate all or part of your company reports?’

Be interesting if there is a response

Disc: not a FB client or have I read that full RYM report (just the extract posted here)

Only thing missing was their graphs which I didn't include.

[allfromacell]

Opportunity to buy below $0.60 is fast evaporating. V shape recovery back to $1 looks ON following RYM price action. :t_up:

Up the Wahs

[Daytr]

Opportunity to buy below $0.60 is fast evaporating. V shape recovery back to $1 looks ON following RYM price action. :t_up:

Up the Wahs

99c to be precise. 😉

[allfromacell]

99c to be precise. 

Are you in now Daytr? Or waiting for some arbitrary indicator higher to tell you its safe?

[X-men]

Wait for bull signal...lol....

Boat already sailed bull ..

Sayonara!!!

[Daytr]

Are you in now Daytr? Or waiting for some arbitrary indicator higher to tell you its safe?

No, I did look at RYM at $3.42 but got a bit greedy and also didn't want to pull money from resources stocks.

Even though RYM is now up 25% in that time my resources stocks have done even better.

I'm not overly bullish like some, as I think there are still some fundamental issues both OCA & RYM need to address.

[ValueNZ]

It's a poorly worded article as a whole but what the analysts are trying to say is that given the ORA effectively does not have to be repaid for 30 years and there is no interest on it during that time, then the discounted value of the ORA today is around 10% of the current book value when you consider the time value of money. The ORA is classified as a debt according to IFRS accounting rules, but the FB analysis says that an ORA is similar to a long dated 'account payable'. In summation, FB are saying IFRS accounting throws up some anomalies for RVs. In addition, FB stated the RV assets are unlikely to be overstated, but the liabilities certainly are overstated.
If I have interpreted that correctly then Forbar is saying the true liability is 90% lower, or 1000% overstated.

But I don't even think that seeing it as a liability is the correct way of thinking about it. Only in the technical GAAP sense it is.

The ORA provides massive cashflows in relation to equity growing at a 15% CAGR, at low risk and with no interest. Surely you'd call that an asset, not a liability from a economic utility perspective...

[ValueNZ]

Only thing missing was their graphs which I didn't include.
I'd be interested in seeing those if you wouldn't mind uploading them here or PMing me :t_up:

[ValueNZ]

I have cash saved up again to buy more if I wanted, but my pockets are so full of OCA that I'm not sure that I'm willing to buy more at 59c lol.

Probably just anchoring and I'd be smart to buy more at 59c irregardless of it's very large size in my portfolio.

Decisions, decisions...

[thegreatestben]

C'mon ValueNZ, I added another 50k shares yesterday - go big or go home.

[Rawz]

I have cash saved up again to buy more if I wanted, but my pockets are so full of OCA that I'm not sure that I'm willing to buy more at 59c lol.

Probably just anchoring and I'd be smart to buy more at 59c irregardless of it's very large size in my portfolio.

Decisions, decisions...

If OCA has the most upside out of all the stocks on your watchlist then i see no problems going in for more.
Every new dollar should go where the best return is.

I only hold 3 stocks. Some people like 15-20 stock diversification. I personally like to keep it focused.

[thegreatestben]

If OCA has the most upside out of all the stocks on your watchlist then i see no problems going in for more.
Every new dollar should go where the best return is.

I only hold 3 stocks. Some people like 15-20 stock diversification. I personally like to keep it focused.

Same here Rawz, has been good following your posts and picks but purely spectating. Patience and a long runway with confident picks.

[ValueNZ]

C'mon ValueNZ, I added another 50k shares yesterday - go big or go home.
Since Feburary, I've added about 40k shares.

Not a lot compared to the big fish here but a fućk ton for me.

[thegreatestben]

Since Feburary, I've added about 40k shares.

Not a lot compared to the big fish here but a fućk ton for me.

amazing! I wish I had been doing the same at your age, I'd be long retired if I got started earlier. I'm just lucky I bought a house at 24 to get me exposed to investment, debt, etc...

[winner69]

There we have it …back to 60

Now heading to 70:…good stuff

share price is up 16% from recent lows, inflation is falling, property market is bottoming - some rising, and the gap to NTA is closing. Buying cheap OCA might soon be a thing of the past so don’t miss out at 60 cents

OCA …you can’t have too many (or something like that)

[ValueNZ]

"There’s no way a macro-forecaster can produce a forecast that correctly incorporates all the many variables that we know will affect the future as well as the random influences about which little or nothing can be known"
- Howard Marks

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-folly-of-certainty

Well clearly Howard Marks hasn't met Daytr :eek2:

[Daytr]

"There’s no way a macro-forecaster can produce a forecast that correctly incorporates all the many variables that we know will affect the future as well as the random influences about which little or nothing can be known"
- Howard Marks

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-folly-of-certainty

Well clearly Howard Marks hasn't met Daytr :eek2:

If you knew anything about trading you would know you don't need to.

Still waiting for answers to my pretty fundamental questions.
No? Nothing?

Sorry but you can't look up up a Buffett quote or anyone else in these situations, you actually have to think for yourself.

[winner69]

Thomas Edison quipped “Vision without execution is hallucination.”

If still around today that’s probably what he’d say about Oceania

[Greekwatchdog]

Just out of interest, how many of you traders bought in at the lows of $0.50???

[Cupsy]

superfluous to requirement

[winner69]

What part of the vision is not being executed winner?

Probably most of it

An old wise guy once advised people not to talk about their big-deal plans until AFTER they were fulfilled. Talking about them almost feels like doing them. Talking about them still gives us the sacred dopamine hit, which if done too much, interferes with us actually getting to work, often disastrously.

Get the gist

[Cupsy]

superfluous to requirement

[Cupsy]

superfluous to requirement

[allfromacell]

Probably most of it

An old wise guy once advised people not to talk about their big-deal plans until AFTER they were fulfilled. Talking about them almost feels like doing them. Talking about them still gives us the sacred dopamine hit, which if done too much, interferes with us actually getting to work, often disastrously.

Get the gist

An excellent post from Winner back in 2022.


Sentiment poor and Oceania the poor cousin of the sector on valuations (even Radius trades on high multiples) because Oceania doesn’t tell a very good story ….and communication is pretty poor. Nothing really to get excited about is there.

Price = fundamental value +/- hype …and no hype around Oceania (besides a small group on ST) that makes market movers excited …and for them to start buying.

And Oceania seem quite content with this state of affairs …stuff all promotion of the company

Telling a story is important, executing equally important though eh. In my view OCA are much better at selling themselves these days. Happy with most of the execution, asset values have soared, private / premium healthcare is the right direction... They just need to realize all that embedded value now.

[ValueNZ]

An excellent post from Winner back in 2022.
Telling a story is important, executing equally important though eh.
Sorry, no that post stinks.

It is not the role of the board to hype up the share price, in fact I'd be angry if they did. Their job is to maximise shareholder value, not price, that is it. The market price will eventually follow (and if it doesn't, you'll be able to accumulate shares at rock bottom prices!)

[ValueNZ]

What do you need to know about trading?
That it is a fools game ;)

[allfromacell]

Sorry, no that post stinks.

It is not the role of the board to hype up the share price, in fact I'd be angry if they did. Their job is to maximise shareholder value, not price, that is it. The market price will eventually follow (and if it doesn't, you'll be able to accumulate shares at rock bottom prices!)


A good story creates a positive feedback loop, where increased interest and investment lead to higher share prices which attracts more investors, easier to raise capital etc. IFT is an example of a company who does this really well.

[Cupsy]

superfluous to requirement

[ValueNZ]

A good story creates a positive feedback loop, where increased interest and investment lead to higher share prices which attracts more investors, easier to raise capital etc. IFT is an example of a company who does this really well.
Not more investors necessarily, just that the shares are transacted at a higher price. A buyer has a seller after all.

Easier to raise capital sure, but you also get rid of the ability to buyback shares which is value accretive where the share price is dirt cheap.

[winner69]

Share price entrenched over 60

Heading towards 200MA which seems about 64

Break through that and heading to 52 week high of 80 ….that be a 60% gain from lows

[Daytr]

What do you need to know about trading?

That's more than one post and deserves it's own thread.

Only fools dismiss things just because it's not their bag or more likely from a position of ignorance. It's fine if it's not for them but there's a lot of ways to make money.

Anyway, probably the one biggest thing besides all the technical side, analytical skills etc is to have discipline and admit when you are wrong, which can be easier said than done.

You don't actually have to get it right the majority of the time if you have good discipline, but obviously it helps.

I have three portfolios
1) short term trading derivatives, fx, commodities, indicies etc.
2) share investing short to medium term.
3) Longer term investing where I switch in & out of various portfolios, sectors & indices.

[winner69]

Oceania the star of the day ….share price up 5%

Not a sector thing

ARV up 1%
RYM flat
SUM down 1%

Fans chanting OCEANIA, GO YOUR BEAUTIFUL THING

Bodes well for a Warriors win tomorrow night

[Panda-NZ-]

Interesting history reminder:

Macquarie bank sold their shares in OCA for $1.20 four years ago.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/oceania-healthcare-stake-sold-for-3014-million/2DVAQOILGYBUMYEH4XNRM3IQBA/


The 251 million shares were sold for $1.20 a share in an underwritten sell-down., a 4 per cent discount to the last close of $1.25 on the NZX. Oceania shares' net asset backing at Nov. 30 was $1.15.

Oceania NTA is now $1.42 and share price 60 cents.
I couldn't help myself but get in on the action recently with my own purchase.

[Panda-NZ-]

Controlling runaway costs was my main concern and it looks to be easing with inflation lower helped by less pressure to lift wages.

[bull....]

Wait for bull signal...lol....

Boat already sailed bull ..

Sayonara!!!

good luck , nice bounce from oversold. my trading money was tied up elsewhere.

[X-men]

Where bull??

[bull....]

Where bull??

heaps on dro.asx as i mentioned on black monday thread nearly a 10 bagger for early birds , 100 % + return in a mth when i mentioned it. im out now though , also woodside which ties up alot of funds and few others so i missed oca bounce :scared: i be back to trade it again some day.

[ValueNZ]

Interesting history reminder:

Macquarie bank sold their shares in OCA for $1.20 four years ago.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/oceania-healthcare-stake-sold-for-3014-million/2DVAQOILGYBUMYEH4XNRM3IQBA/



Oceania NTA is now $1.42 and share price 60 cents.
I couldn't help myself but get in on the action recently with my own purchase.

No need - the market is assessing it's value for me. 59 cents.

Panda, I thought you were a EMH nut. Price = Value, as you're saying above.

[ValueNZ]

That's more than one post and deserves it's own thread.

Only fools dismiss things just because it's not their bag or more likely from a position of ignorance. It's fine if it's not for them but there's a lot of ways to make money.

Anyway, probably the one biggest thing besides all the technical side, analytical skills etc is to have discipline and admit when you are wrong, which can be easier said than done.

You don't actually have to get it right the majority of the time if you have good discipline, but obviously it helps.

I have three portfolios
1) short term trading derivatives, fx, commodities, indicies etc.
2) share investing short to medium term.
3) Longer term investing where I switch in & out of various portfolios, sectors & indices.
Hey Daytr, what are the CAGR's of each portfolio across say 6 years. If one is better than the others, why not just stick with that one.

[ValueNZ]

"Politics and economics are two such fields, and investing is another. No one can predict reliably what the future holds in these fields, but many people overrate their ability and attempt to do so nevertheless" - Howard Marks

Reminds me of a certain someone who likes to post here....

[winner69]

Oh my gosh. The Warriors lose last night to the Raiders 20-18. That’s their 10th loss for the season and chances of ‘this being our year’ diminishing. However chief fan Jason still has hopes “ It’s been one of those seasons for the @NZWarriors so far. We have the team, coaches and management to go all of the way - but just can’t put it together for 80 minutes. Now is the time for us fans to really show our support and lift the team. .Massive effort from Mitch and Kurt. Great game from RTS. Fantastic to see the next generation coming through who would have learned a lot from tonight. #KeepTheFaith #UpTheWahs” UP THE WAHS

Oceania on other hand had a great week. Share price was up a whooping 5 cents to 60 cents. Fans getting pumped now and saying the 80 cents where it was at the eginning of the year not that far off. Fan Baa_Baa noted ..’probably bottomed, inflation is falling, property market is bottoming - some rising, and the gap to NTA is closing. Buying cheap OCA might soon be a thing of the past’. Others say we have the goods etc there are reports of many fans buying more of this treasure. This is our year …OCEANIA, GO YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

The casual observer would say it’s looking grim for the Warriors but there is a glimmer of hope. For Oceania. But both must try harder .

[Daytr]

Hey Daytr, what are the CAGR's of each portfolio across say 6 years. If one is better than the others, why not just stick with that one.

Do you have memory lapses?
You keep asking the same silly questions looking to score points and even when I answer them you don't acknowledge the answer and you don't answer questions I put to you.

I know you miss you antagonistic mentor, but perhaps learn to accept that others actually know a thing or two as well and that there is more than one way to make money.

However, I will answer your second question.
The three portfolios serve different purposes.

Trading, my smallest portfolio generates cash to help pay the bills etc, I e it's part of my annual income.

Midterm investing in equities is all about generating high returns where possible and building up a growing portfolio. Typical hold term 3 - 12 months.

The longer term indices investment is my retirement fund and I ride waves and then switch to cash or to a different portfolio.

On average they all work well and the good thing about having three strategies is there is always somewhere to make money, not just sitting on your hands to wait for a stock to turn around etc.

The other is it provides access to a much wider range of investments other than just equities and trade on a macro level that has high liquidity, a bit like my recent JPY trade, but it could be commodities, the NASDAQ or Vol. etc.

[dubya]

One of Oceanias better ads.
From today's Christchurch Press.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/350336173/continuing-live-life-she-loves

[Panda-NZ-]

Panda, I thought you were a EMH nut. Price = Value, as you're saying above.

Profitability is most important and that looks set to improve with a reduction in wage demands.
A new govt is in which is looking to supress wages across the board (and yes it will bring inflation down and increase jobless numbers).

All three are good from oceania's perspective.

[bottomfeeder]

One of Oceanias better ads.
From today's Christchurch Press.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/350336173/continuing-live-life-she-loves

Very little point of difference in RVs, except location. Oceania adds are helping advertising for all RVs. They need to stop and target their adds better.

[percy]

One of Oceanias better ads.
From today's Christchurch Press.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/350336173/continuing-live-life-she-loves

I thought the ad was the cleverest I have every read.
Using someone whose career was finance and investment was a masterpiece.Conveyed The Bellevue was a sound choice.
Fact she was looking for a friend but decided it was perfect for herself may encourage people who had been thinking of looking at a retirement village,to look at The Bellevue..
Then the fact if she ever needed care she would be able to remain at The Bellevue.
Ticked all the boxes for me.Location,security,care,privacy,etc.

[Cupsy]

superfluous to requirement

[winner69]

Where bull??

Managing his zillion dollar portfolio …and loving it

[X-men]

That what I like about Bull....
Nothing....

[ValueNZ]

That what I like about Bull....
Nothing....
Your posts are of much higher quality, right x-men?

[X-men]

Lol..shut up..U are just a college kid...your holding is just couple hundred dollars...lol

Me and bull has a special relationship...we go to the bar n lap dance every now and then

[ValueNZ]

Lol..shut up..U are just a college kid...your holding is just couple hundred dollars...lol

Me and bull has a special relationship...we go to the bar n lap dance every now and then
You mentioned before that you hold 2000 shares...

Unless you've bought more, I hold many multiples more shares than you do. More than 15x less than 40x.

Better apply for more shifts at the local Maccas X-men so you can catch up.

[thegreatestben]

You mentioned before that you hold 2000 shares...

Unless you've bought more, I hold many multiples more shares than you do. More than 15x less than 40x.

Better apply for more shifts at the local Maccas X-men so you can catch up.

I dunno VNZ, Maccas don't pay much and Bull might be paying pretty well for a lap dance.

[ValueNZ]

I dunno VNZ, Maccas don't pay much and Bull might be paying pretty well for a lap dance.
That'd be all well and good, but with the English skills of a 10 year old, I don't think x-men can get anything better than a job at Maccas.

[Daytr]

That'd be all well and good, but with the English skills of a 10 year old, I don't think x-men can get anything better than a job at Maccas.

Nice to see you have adopted all the worst traits of your mentor SailorBoy.
I suppose you are still a child so acting like one isn't all that unreasonable.

[X-men]

Lol college boy...U have a more to learn from your trader koro...me n bull...

[ValueNZ]

Nice to see you have adopted all the worst traits of your mentor SailorBoy.
I suppose you are still a child so acting like one isn't all that unreasonable.
Nope just the appropriate response to being told, and I paraphrase "shut up as you're at uni and only hold a couple hundred dollars worth of shares"

Well that's not accurate, I hold a hell of a lot more than that and X-men is doing many multiples worse than to an 18 year old only working part-time.

[thegreatestben]

Daytr is the white knight we never wanted or asked for.

[X-men]

If U can figure out 1+1=11....then U all good to go.. college boy. Lol

[Daytr]

Nope just the appropriate response to being told, and I paraphrase "shut up as you're at uni and only hold a couple hundred dollars worth of shares"

Well that's not accurate, I hold a hell of a lot more than that and X-men is doing many multiples worse than to an 18 year old only working part-time.

My one is bigger than yours. 🤣🤣🤣

[Daytr]

Daytr is the white knight we never wanted or asked for.

Is that the royal we?
Wah fans at their best.
Oh the analysts and the market finally get it and that's why there's a turn around. We were right all along. 🤣

Nothing to do with Adrian Orr's comments on interest rates eh.

[davflaws]

Give it a rest you guys.

Lets try and keep this thread for analysis and respectfulk discussion. Go over to the Off Market Discussions or Elections Forums and fill ya boots if personal abuse and that nonsense floats ya boat.

[Daytr]

Give it a rest you guys.

Lets try and keep this thread for analysis and respectfulk discussion. Go over to the Off Market Discussions or Elections Forums and fill ya boots if personal abuse and that nonsense floats ya boat.

Fair call davflaws

[ValueNZ]

I've said this before, but this thread is an incredible read. I highly suggest going through the years and seeing which posters were/were not buying, and what they are doing now. Lots of people who were ramping up the stock before are now bearish, despite OCA now being far better value then when they were ramping. No doubt when this puppy is $1.50 and rising, we'll hear from these individuals how incredible the value is and how they are buying more.

Anyway that said next week I'm going to pick up what is probably the final parcel for awhile, unless OCA gets cheaper again.

[winner69]

Looks like the bargain of the century, even if one has to pay a 'premium' after listing


Hey Value ….this from IPO time many years ago

[Cupsy]

superfluous to requirement

[Rawz]

OCA open at 80 cents?

[Leemsip]

reckon going higher today... end the day at $1?

[winner69]

OCA open at 80 cents?

Value taking early retirement?

[Leemsip]

Good to see the conviction paid off for Value. Well played that man.
Needs to take a victory lap or 2...

Thank goodness SR isnt here... would be unbearable... lol

[Rawz]

reckon going higher today... end the day at $1?

The Arvida takeover sets a precedent of 0.83x of NTA which for OCA is $1.41.

So OCA takeover price is $1.41 x 0.83= $1.17 per share.

Say OCA should trade at a 20%-30% discount to takeover price then SP can be $0.82-$0.93 per share :cool:

Congrats holders. Whatever happens the bottom is surely in and onwards and upwards :t_up:

[allfromacell]

Makes you wonder if the recent boost in SP for the sector has been driven by takeover rumors.

[Rawz]

Good to see the conviction paid off for Value. Well played that man.
Needs to take a victory lap or 2...

Thank goodness SR isnt here... would be unbearable... lol

SR bought at the bottom and bet big by all accounts. He deserves a lot of credit. Who knows if he was here maybe he would be humble? lol

And yes credit to ValueNZ sounds like he loaded up recently as well.

Happy for them both.

Lets all get rich together

[Bikeguy]

SR bought at the bottom and bet big by all accounts. He deserves a lot of credit. Who knows if he was here maybe he would be humble? lol

And yes credit to ValueNZ sounds like he loaded up recently as well.

Happy for them both.

Lets all get rich together

Good points, can learn or receive valuable information even if the person delivering it is not someone we would particularly like…

[winner69]

An overseas outfit liked Arvida’s float so buying it

Just need the market to appreciate Oceania has a float (a big one) as well …and acknowledge floats are very valuable

[Daytr]

SR bought at the bottom and bet big by all accounts. He deserves a lot of credit. Who knows if he was here maybe he would be humble? lol

And yes credit to ValueNZ sounds like he loaded up recently as well.

Happy for them both.

Lets all get rich together

Surely not? SR & VNZ want the price to go down.
This is that last thing they have said they want... until it's not of course.

SR also said he hadn't gone big and it was a small part of his portfolio, unless of course he has bought since.

SR also said he wouldn't sell for a takeover premium as it would likely undervalue the long term value of the company.

Anyway we'll done to everyone who has bought recently.

So ARV take over is at a 65% premium.
A 65% premium to OCAs shareprice is 99c.
Hmmm where I have seen that number before. 😉

[thegreatestben]

Great start to the week, open looking healthy. I’m really pleased for VNZ, I think we should all be proud to see young kiwi’s taking this path.

[ValueNZ]

With all the talk on here, for a moment I thought it was OCA being taken over :eek2:

And yes Daytr, I still prefer a lower price.

It is also a significant portion of SR's portfolio.

[ValueNZ]

SR bought at the bottom and bet big by all accounts. He deserves a lot of credit. Who knows if he was here maybe he would be humble? lol

And yes credit to ValueNZ sounds like he loaded up recently as well.

Happy for them both.

Lets all get rich together
Together? You've bought some OCA?

[ValueNZ]

SR also said he hadn't gone big and it was a small part of his portfolio, unless of course he has bought since.
It was a small part of his portfolio but he has bought quite a lot in the low 50's, his average price is now 63c and OCA makes up 10%+ of his portfolio.

He was going to allocate an additional 2-3% of his portfolio in OCA on Friday, but didn't like seeing the price go up. Massive lesson there for everyone...

[Rawz]

Together? You've bought some OCA?

No don't hold.

'Lets all get rich together' was something i said on the HGH thread the other day. like a motto

[winner69]

With all the talk on here, for a moment I thought it was OCA being taken over :eek2:

And yes Daytr, I still prefer a lower price.

It is also a significant portion of SR's portfolio.

Reaction is such that punters are hoping like anything Oceania will also be subject to takeover activity sooner than later

[bull....]

It was a small part of his portfolio but he has bought quite a lot in the low 50's, his average price is now 63c and OCA makes up 10%+ of his portfolio.

He was going to allocate an additional 2-3% of his portfolio in OCA on Friday, but didn't like seeing the price go up. Massive lesson there for everyone...

it was a massive part of his portfolio , thats why he carried on like a big baby when ever oca was negatively talked about. his wealth was declining rapidly and so his retirement fund.

[ValueNZ]

it was a massive part of his portfolio , thats why he carried on like a big baby when ever oca was negatively talked about. his wealth was declining rapidly and so his retirement fund.
I reckon we should compare your 5 year CAGR with his

[bull....]

I reckon we should compare your 5 year CAGR with his

you would need to know the standard deviation of his cagr to know if it has bee wild risk taking or sensible investing. of course the same could be said for me or anyone

[Rawz]

..
He was going to allocate an additional 2-3% of his portfolio in OCA on Friday, but didn't like seeing the price go up. Massive lesson there for everyone...

what is the lesson here for everyone?

Dont wait around and just buy?

[Daytr]

I reckon we should compare your 5 year CAGR with his

Well going by his 2nd largest investment being up an entire 11% we are shaking in the proverbial boots.
I commend him & you for making money and I hope you make good money as I did when I said his buying at 52c was good buying.

My recommendations at the time were RYM over OCA and ARV if you were looking for a takeover target...

[Daytr]

what is the lesson here for everyone?

Dont wait around and just buy?

Go on buy it now, at a takeover premium level.
This could go another way. OCA missed out on not being the takeover target and reverts.
Or perhaps there is more appetite out there, otherwise you are relying on the OCA management to turn things around or the property market to turn, led by interest rate cuts, I imagine the latter will be the driver.

[allfromacell]

Still fantastic value at $0.70. I would buy more if I didn't already have far too many.

I expect all listed RVs to dissappear off the NZX over the next 5 years.

[alokdhir]

what is the lesson here for everyone?

Dont wait around and just buy?

Lesson maybe call it best value buy under $ 1 then it bounces off 50% of value buy zone and start gloating ...lol

[ValueNZ]

you would need to know the standard deviation of his cagr to know if it has bee wild risk taking or sensible investing. of course the same could be said for me or anyone
Standard deviation is NOT a good measure of risk.

[ValueNZ]

what is the lesson here for everyone?

Dont wait around and just buy?
The lesson is to not wait around trying to get a better price, when you can already buy at a great price. The price you pay is of course very important, but it's not necessarily the best idea taking the risk of not buying at the current price as it may shoot up quickly as it has done with OCA.

It's like if someone offered you $1 at 15c, and you said "Well it was 13c last week, I think I'll wait for it to drop back down." Well it might happen, is it worth taking the risk when there is already a great value proposition at the current price?

Anyway it's a mistake we all can easily make, SailorRob thought it was worth mentioning his mistake here.

[Cupsy]

Good to see the conviction paid off for Value. Well played that man.
Needs to take a victory lap or 2...

Thank goodness SR isnt here... would be unbearable... lol

Well the amount ppl poopood sailors ideas he would be entitled to some "I told you so" imo. Not sure he would do that though, a lot of you miss the forest for the trees in a lot of what he says. Still not sure what his last ban was for?

[X-men]

NZx is stuffed! All companies are being taken over....

Money from arvida...will go to OCA...sum and rym

[Perky]

Sailor got banned because he was always on starboard

When sailboats approach on different tacks the boat on the starboard is the stand on vessel with right of way.

[Cupsy]

Sailor got banned because he was always on starboard

When sailboats approach on different tacks the boat on the starboard is the stand on vessel with right of way.

What is that supposed to mean?

[Balance]

Congratulations to those who kept their conviction and bought at the low 50c! Well done!

[Daytr]

Sailor got banned because he was always on starboard

When sailboats approach on different tacks the boat on the starboard is the stand on vessel with right of way.

He always 'thought' he was on starboard even when on port or cast in irons.

[Perky]

Sailor was always right… its a joke or pisstake.

because a boat can’t sail directly into wind they zig zag up the course spending time on starboard tack and port tack
when you are on starboard tack you have right of way….when you are on port tack…you have to give way to other boats on starboard tack

its like the rules of the road but for on the water

discl. I’m a sailor…I would say SR is a much superior investor than me….but I reckon I would keep him honest in a yacht race lol
discl. hold plenty oca

[Toddy]

Yeah, good on those investors that kept the faith.
Was always going to go up, but I was thinking it would be another year away as the NZ economy is so sick.

But we can always bank on those offshore investors with real money showing us the way with buying up cheap investments.

Investing has always been about timing. Which I am completely average at.

[Cupsy]

Sailor was always right… its a joke or pisstake.



No that's Rob, what he does he does to borderline fanaticism, so if you're debating him, he believes he's right and will have hours and hours of research behind him.

[Ferg]

he believes he's right and will have hours and hours of research behind him.

I will back up this statement 100% - in fact I would go further and say he has years and years of research behind him. That is not hyperbole.

[winner69]

OCA share price UP 40% from recent lows …..that’s pretty good

[allfromacell]

OCA share price UP 40% from recent lows …..that’s pretty good

Suzanne Dvorak's first day today, a good start to her tenure.

[ValueNZ]

Suzanne Dvorak's first day today, a good start to her tenure.
Doesn't really change anything from the business's perspective...

[winner69]

Suzanne Dvorak's first day today, a good start to her tenure.


Could call her the $80m lady

[winner69]

Doesn't really change anything from the business's perspective...


Maybe not ….like ARV doesn’t really change things from a business perspective for OCA either

But Suzanne might be bringing good fortune to Oceania …..needs something to go Oceania’s way and she might be that catalyst

Ryman thought they had appointed a good CEO a few years ago but his past life was a bit chequered …..‘unlucky’ it’s called ……and the bad luck continued at Ryman eh

So good Suzanne started on a good footing ….if she is a lucky one and starts presenting a much improved story things might come right for Oceania ….. sentiment is key

[Cupsy]

Maybe not ….like ARV doesn’t really change things from a business perspective for OCA either

But Suzanne might be bringing good fortune to Oceania …..needs something to go Oceania’s way and she might be that catalyst

Ryman thought they had appointed a good CEO a few years ago but his past life was a bit chequered …..‘unlucky’ it’s called ……and the bad luck continued at Ryman eh

So good Suzanne started on a good footing ….if she is a lucky one and starts presenting a much improved story things might come right for Oceania ….. sentiment is key

The value is either there or it is not, the luck you are talking (seriously or in jest... I can't tell which) is the psychological aspect of investing which influences the prices we see. The value has not changed since the stock price was at 50c to now, only ppls opinion of what the value is worth has changed

[thegreatestben]

I think it helps a lot to have a clear runway to allow the business to keep doing what it has been doing.

Confident and competent would be appreciated. Liz and Brett were a dry combo.

[Daytr]

The value is either there or it is not, the luck you are talking (seriously or in jest... I can't tell which) is the psychological aspect of investing which influences the prices we see. The value has not changed since the stock price was at 50c to now, only ppls opinion of what the value is worth has changed

True, but has the value increased or decreased since it traded $1.60? After all the nta has increased substantially in that time.
So what has changed?
Not the business model surely.

[ValueNZ]

True, but has the value increased or decreased since it traded $1.60? After all the nta has increased substantially in that time.
So what has changed?
Not the business model surely.
Holy, I've been saying this for years now.

The business grew it's balance sheet substantially and is worth more, yet the market valued it at >1/3 the price. And thank god for that.

[ValueNZ]

I think it helps a lot to have a clear runway to allow the business to keep doing what it has been doing.

Confident and competent would be appreciated. Liz and Brett were a dry combo.
Brett seemed pretty onto it from what I could tell, same with Liz.

Who says that dry is a bad thing?

[jonu]

OCA share price UP 40% from recent lows …..that’s pretty good

Up the wahs!

If you thought the last 3 months of the OCA thread was entertaining....you aint seen nothing yet!

[Daytr]

Holy, I've been saying this for years now.

The business grew it's balance sheet substantially and is worth more, yet the market valued it at >1/3 the price. And thank god for that.

And yet, going by the premium paid for ARV it's valued at 99c. Seem familiar?

[Cupsy]

And yet, going by the premium paid for ARV it's valued at 99c. Seem familiar?

You are saying your valuation of oca's intrinsic value is the correct valuation?

[Daytr]

You are saying your valuation of oca's value is the correct value?

I would never be that bold & things can change over time. But based on the ARV takeover bid at the moment yes.
Definitely not $2.60.

The problem for OCA is that they weren't the takeover target, ARV was. Is their more appetite? Maybe.

My valuation wasn't based on a takeover but that was possible but on a 12 month horizon with interest rates likely to turn.

[Baa_Baa]

And yet, going by the premium paid for ARV it's valued at 99c. Seem familiar?

That's the ARV offer premium to SP, whereas the offer is discount of 0.83x to NTA, which would equate to $1.17 OCA SP. Still cheap as.

If I had ARV I'd be seriously pissed off with the offer for them, like basically selling out for less than the assets value, let alone future earnings.

[Baa_Baa]

The problem for OCA is that they weren't the takeover target, ARV was. Is there more appetite? Maybe.

A problem for OCA? More like OCA dodged a bullet and hopefully doesn't have such weak kneed Directors as ARV in the event that a takeover offer was made.

So much short term SP this, SP that, thinking around here. Only good thing about the SP is how amazingly cheap it is for anyone with a longer term outlook.

[winner69]

Brett seemed pretty onto it from what I could tell, same with Liz.

Who says that dry is a bad thing?

All I’ll say about ‘value’ is its rather subjective isn’t it

Brett might have been pretty onto it but the business per se and the share price went nowhere during his tenure.

Always had something (often external) to blame ….bad luck / ill fortune and all that …he a bit like the Ryman guy was just unlucky. That doesn’t often change.

Hopefully this Suzanne is blessed with good fortune and it rubs off on Oceania

No comment re Liz

[Cupsy]

All I’ll say about ‘value’ is its rather subjective isn’t it
[/SIZE]

The value is not subjective, figuring out the correct value is another story, and that's making a big assumption that a buyer or seller has even thought about what the value may actually be.

[thegreatestben]

Liz just seemed to read (badly) off a sheet of paper in front of her and Brett seems to know plenty but is not ceo material.

My concern is that they are doing just ok, I’m likely to benefit from it very nicely but I can’t help but think we could be missing out on better use of the opportunity oca has.

Doesn’t need to be over selling it but I’m comparing to Jeff Greenslade from HGH, he really gave me a lot of confidence.

I probably got into OCA for the wrong reasons but SR kept me in and gave me confidence to add.

[thegreatestben]

A problem for OCA? More like OCA dodged a bullet and hopefully doesn't have such weak kneed Directors as ARV in the event that a takeover offer was made.

So much short term SP this, SP that, thinking around here. Only good thing about the SP is how amazingly cheap it is for anyone with a longer term outlook.

Agreed, not a target for takeover because the board have skin in the game and wouldn’t sell out for a quick buck

[ValueNZ]

The value is not subjective, figuring out the correct value is another story, and that's making a big assumption that a buyer or seller has even thought about what the value may actually be.
Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

[Cupsy]

Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

Oh yeah good point, I guess it's easy to get bogged down in details. I was thinking from a earnings growth aspect which in reality will play out only one way regardless of anyone's assumptions, but yeah everyone's required return will be different and their desired time period.

In that case winner I stand corrected.

[Cupsy]

Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

Expanding on what I just wrote, and although present value of future cash flows may be the theoretically correct measure of value, I don't really do it, on account of I'm not really bright enough, for a simpleton like me I'm more likely to introduce more errors and come up with higher levels of inaccurate results.

I've been trying to focus on asset value in combination with earnings power value as outlayed in "Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond (Bruce Greenwald)", and even then I'm not the sharpest.

[Daytr]

That's the ARV offer premium to SP, whereas the offer is discount of 0.83x to NTA, which would equate to $1.17 OCA SP. Still cheap as.

If I had ARV I'd be seriously pissed off with the offer for them, like basically selling out for less than the assets value, let alone future earnings.

Each to their own and I suspect individuals will look at their target exit price depending on where they bought. I.e if you bought in the low 50s you probably have a different perspective than someone who bought over $1. But of course this isn't the way to value a company.


Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

So you are saying no one should value a company? Of course no one can do it exactly, and value can change with circumstances, but you & SailorBoy do like stating the obvious.
But you say you can estimate future casflows...

How has casflow grown in the last few years?

For those who missed my point, NTA has grown all the time the shareprice has lost 2/3rds it's value, so NTA growth is not a driver of the SP and as you rightly point out cashflow is and yet you ignore the growing gap between fees and the running costs of the villages and the gap is roughly what is generated by the DMF.

So where is this cash being generated to drive the share price so much higher than say the premium paid for ARV?

Winner's Warriors supporter's comparison is so on the money. Those claiming victory in the first five minutes and it's for the great strategy identity by it's supporter's, despite the fact that a 40 knot ARV gale is at their back that is due strengthen at haf time and then the they are in the hands of referee Adrian Orr for some favourable decisions.

[bull....]

Standard deviation is NOT a good measure of risk.

come on std dev is widely used in portfolio risk. what metric do you use ?

[allfromacell]

How has casflow grown in the last few years?

For those who missed my point, NTA has grown all the time the shareprice has lost 2/3rds it's value, so NTA growth is not a driver of the SP and as you rightly point out cashflow is and yet you ignore the growing gap between fees and the running costs of the villages and the gap is roughly what is generated by the DMF.

So where is this cash being generated to drive the share price so much higher than say the premium paid for ARV?



It's mostly sitting on the balance sheet easily recorded in NAV. Everyone knows OCA is sitting on a large amount of unsold stock. This will be turned into cash as property volumes pick up.







Winner's Warriors supporter's comparison is so on the money. Those claiming victory in the first five minutes and it's for the great strategy identity by it's supporter's, despite the fact that a 40 knot ARV gale is at their back that is due strengthen at haf time and then the they are in the hands of referee Adrian Orr for some favourable decisions.

This reads like all the people who told me I was just lucky to buy crypto early. It's all luck.

As a proud Warrior fan I can tell you that takeovers and interest rate cycles changing were always part of the thesis for buying OCA.

It's been about buying a stock criminally undervalued because of market sentiment. Yes we'll take a victory lap when the stocks up 40%.

Up the Wahs!

[bull....]

one should be asking if oceania is such good value why it was not the takeover target considering arv and oca are similar out of all the RV'S

[X-men]

Doesn't matter bull..SP is already at 71c

[winner69]

Intrinsic value is the present value of the estimated future cash flows, discounted at whatever rate an individual chooses. So value is pretty subjective as it depends on assumptions and the discount rate chosen. It's certainly no exact science - hence why Daytr giving a 99c intrinsic value estimate is so absurd.

But say you require a high return, make conservative assumptions, and require a decent margin of safety, well then you're bound to do well.

I don't claim to know exactly what OCA is worth (no one can), but I am certain of one thing - OCA is worth a hellva lot more than $440m.

Hey Value ….. several analysts use a thing called Annuity Earnings to assess RV values

Seems to be a de facto DCF

Any idea how they ‘calculate’ this?

[Daytr]

It's mostly sitting on the balance sheet easily recorded in NAV. Everyone knows OCA is sitting on a large amount of unsold stock. This will be turned into cash as property volumes pick up.

This reads like all the people who told me I was just lucky to buy crypto early. It's all luck.

As a proud Warrior fan I can tell you that takeovers and interest rate cycles changing were always part of the thesis for buying OCA.

It's been about buying a stock criminally undervalued because of market sentiment. Yes we'll take a victory lap when the stocks up 40%.

Up the Wahs!

Then you are misinterpreting what I am saying.
I have said it was undervalued for quite some time, if the property market looked like improving, but the drivers of change in sentiment wasn't going to be the business model, or that suddenly the market has a light bulb moment.

It was going to be about the macro environment and that trigger, which could be a false start but I doubt it, was Adrian Orr's recent statement on the outlook for interest rates.

So, I suppose for those who ignore the macro, then yes they got lucky. Those who could see that the current cycle is coming to an end and bought on that basis, well done.

The same could be said for those who sold after the Covid sugar rush & those who held even though we were entering a very sharp increase in interest rates and you didn't have to predict that, Adrian Orr told us as much, remember he borrowed the phrase, go hard, go early.

So I totally agree re your first statement of unsold stock. But what if Orr had said rates needed to go back up? Anyway we are in agreement it's the macro driving change in sentiment and market value.

[ValueNZ]

come on std dev is widely used in portfolio risk. what metric do you use ?
I think of risk in terms of the likelihood of permanent loss of capital, or long run underperformance. So no one metric per se, but a combination of factors that give me a general idea of the level of risk.

Volatility in the downward direction is not a permanent loss of capital.

[ValueNZ]

Expanding on what I just wrote, and although present value of future cash flows may be the theoretically correct measure of value, I don't really do it, on account of I'm not really bright enough, for a simpleton like me I'm more likely to introduce more errors and come up with higher levels of inaccurate results.

I've been trying to focus on asset value in combination with earnings power value as outlayed in "Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond (Bruce Greenwald)", and even then I'm not the sharpest.
Yeah I don't do proper spreadsheet DCF's either, you can get close in your head anyway. The beauty of this game is it doesn't require complex math.

I've done DCF's in the past, just to learn and understand the model.

[X-men]

So much money coming from Arvida.....!

[Old mate]

You’ve changed your tune pretty quickly from dog stock, dog stock

[X-men]

Always my dog stock..lol

[thegreatestben]

(X-)Men's best friend?

[X-men]

Always ... anything make money...

[Daytr]

I think of risk in terms of the likelihood of permanent loss of capital, or long run underperformance. So no one metric per se, but a combination of factors that give me a general idea of the level of risk.

Volatility in the downward direction is not a permanent loss of capital.

The last statement is correct only if the shareprice recovers, but also applies in an upward move. Nothing is made or lost until it's crystallized, and in ARV's case it has been crystallized for shareholders.

[ValueNZ]

I've bailed. Had enough.
You managed to almost perfectly time the bottom. Hope the hookers and beer were worth it mate.

You also said this in Feb 2022

Remember what Warren Buffett says....: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

My guess is you bought the very top, and sold the very bottom. Yikes. Thanks for playing.

[Daytr]

You managed to almost perfectly time the bottom. Hope the hookers and beer were worth it mate.

You also said this in Feb 2022


My guess is you bought the very top, and sold the very bottom. Yikes. Thanks for playing.

That's a spiteful post. Straight out of your mentor's book.

[allfromacell]

Agreed. Poor form. Absolutely no need to rub people's face in it

[Panda-NZ-]

Congrats to all recent investors... zooming to one buck.

[ValueNZ]

Agreed. Poor form. Absolutely no need to rub people's face in it
Maybe.

Regardless of whether I should have framed my post better, it's absolutely a lesson we should all learn from. It'll be a very hard lesson for ThaiJohn no doubt.

Apologies for the insensitivity ThaiJohn.

[Panda-NZ-]

Apologies for the insensitivity ThaiJohn.

Say it like you mean it young man. That apology could have been generated by AI.

How about a paragraph, addressed properly, stating where you went wrong.

[hey_homes]

Great news for those who bought in the recent doldrums. Also encouraging news for myself, who bought when the price was waaaaaay higher. Still a way to go though, so I won’t be breaking out the Lindauer just yet.

[bottomfeeder]

Great news for those who bought in the recent doldrums. Also encouraging news for myself, who bought when the price was waaaaaay higher. Still a way to go though, so I won’t be breaking out the Lindauer just yet.
Would be great if it went to a buck, but I would expect a drop again as it has nearly gone up 50% in two weeks and the exuberance doesnt last. Unless there is a takeover being considered.

[Daytr]

Congrats to all recent investors... zooming to one buck.

Needs to hold the 50% retracement level first.
Let's see if the current impetus holds over the next few days.

[winner69]

Bought quite a few more this morning to add to what was a modest holding

Fundamentals still suck but hey why not ride the market sentiment …it’s one of those stocks and has been good to me over the years. OCA owes me nothing

And new CEO might be the one who brings good fortune to Oceania

Be $1 soon

[alokdhir]

Bought quite a few more this morning to add to what was a modest holding

Fundamentals still suck but hey why not ride the market sentiment …it’s one of those stocks and has been good to me over the years. OCA owes me nothing

And new CEO might be the one who brings good fortune to Oceania

Be $1 soon

OCA about to become positive for the year ...yes still down 1 cent from Jan ...after so much heavy lifting ....time for pull back soon ...but I am sure u wud have gone by then ...:t_up:

[Cupsy]

Bought quite a few more this morning to add to what was a modest holding


I'm truly gobsmacked, have you no conviction man, your negative outlook appears to have changed with a flip of the coin. Nothing has changed fundamentally with this company.

[ValueNZ]

The last statement is correct only if the shareprice recovers, but also applies in an upward move. Nothing is made or lost until it's crystallized, and in ARV's case it has been crystallized for shareholders.
Exactly... Buffett hasn't made a single cent until he sells his Berkshire shares and converts them to PAPER.

Oh wait.

[winner69]

I'm truly gobsmacked, have you no conviction man, your negative outlook appears to have changed with a flip of the coin. Nothing has changed fundamentally with this company.

Yes indeed, fundamentals still not that great

But sentiment has changed eh …like nothing can go wrong

That $1 not far away

[bull....]

yea i used to rant 1 before 2

[ValueNZ]

I'm truly gobsmacked, have you no conviction man, your negative outlook appears to have changed with a flip of the coin. Nothing has changed fundamentally with this company.
If you think this is bad, check out the ME today thread... Whiner pumping a worthless stock only for it to fall something like 99.5%

[winner69]

Just changed my signature as a reminder not to get too carried away

OCA could easily get back to $1.50 plus …one never knows

[ValueNZ]

Winner are you Jim Cramer?

[alokdhir]

yea i used to rant 1 before 2

Did u see 50 Cents coming ...I am sure u did not ...that was the killer and made all this look so nice ...started the year @ 76 Cents ...now 75 Cents and all so excited ...including W69 :p

[bull....]

Did u see 50 Cents coming ...I am sure u did not ...that was the killer and made all this look so nice ...started the year @ 76 Cents ...now 75 Cents and all so excited ...including W69 :p

no not a yr or more ago but only towards the end. i posted as around 90c my valuation on this thread when it was well over $1 a long time ago.

winner showing his fomo

[Daytr]

Exactly... Buffett hasn't made a single cent until he sells his Berkshire shares and converts them to PAPER.

Oh wait.

That's his worth that changes by the minute.
And Buffett has sold plenty of stock over the years.

[ValueNZ]

That's his worth that changes by the minute.
And Buffett has sold plenty of stock over the years.
The point I was making is this. Wealth is neither created nor destroyed when punters transact at higher/lower prices. You become wealthier over the long run when the intrinsic value of your shares increases.

His "worth" doesn't change by the minute, the marketable price of his shares does though. Berkshire's value as a company only changes about 10% a year.

Also can you provide evidence that Buffett has ever sold a single share?

[winner69]

heaps on dro.asx as i mentioned on black monday thread nearly a 10 bagger for early birds , 100 % + return in a mth when i mentioned it. im out now though , also woodside which ties up alot of funds and few others so i missed oca bounce :scared: i be back to trade it again some day.

Baa_Baa wise words still echoing through my head …. ’probably bottomed, inflation is falling, property market is bottoming - some rising, and the gap to NTA is closing. Buying cheap OCA might soon be a thing of the past’.

No might about it ….Buying OCA cheap is a thing of the past

[ValueNZ]

Baa_Baa wise words still echoing through my head …. ’probably bottomed, inflation is falling, property market is bottoming - some rising, and the gap to NTA is closing. Buying cheap OCA might soon be a thing of the past’.

No might about it ….Buying OCA is a thing of the past
OCA is still cheap, not as good buying as in the low 50's but still damn cheap.

[bull....]

Baa_Baa wise words still echoing through my head …. ’probably bottomed, inflation is falling, property market is bottoming - some rising, and the gap to NTA is closing. Buying cheap OCA might soon be a thing of the past’.

No might about it ….Buying OCA is a thing of the past

lol how does anyone know its bottomed till hindsight ? maybe a dead cat bounce yet. you know winner OCA is a trading stock

[Curly]

After 7 years sp almost at its listing price of .79c. Well below most peoples expectations one would think. Hope thy get it right here on in.

[Cupsy]

After 7 years sp almost at its listing price of .79c. Well below most peoples expectations one would think. Hope thy get it right here on in.

What real evidence is there that they have got it wrong previously if that is your insinuation?

[alokdhir]

What real evidence is there that they have got it wrong previously if that is your insinuation?

MFT 7 years back was $ 23.70 ...OCA same as then ...so surely they got it right ??

SUM was $ 4.91 if apples to apples u favour

[Cupsy]

MFT 7 years back was $ 23.70 ...OCA same as then ...so surely they got it right ??

SUM was $ 4.91 if apples to apples u favour

Covid and then property downturn* bro

[bull....]

the float moves in cycles ... spooky

[Daytr]

the float moves in cycles ... spooky

Comment of the day!

[winner69]

52 week high is 80 cents

That’ll be taken out tomorrow

Heaps of Arvida money still to come OCA way

[X-men]

Once they have enough OCA...the left over money will go to HGH and RYM

[Baa_Baa]

52 week high is 80 cents

That’ll be taken out tomorrow

Heaps of Arvida money still to come OCA way

ARV topped out today as well after the big run-up yesterday, probably better for shareholders to take the certainty of $1.60 now than wait for the uncertainty of 10 cents more in a few months. My ARV's are in OCA now.

[Greekwatchdog]

Once they have enough OCA...the left over money will go to HGH and RYM

You can never have enough OCA, right Winner?

[Baa_Baa]

You can never have enough OCA, right Winner?

Just saying, OCA went green for the current calendar year, up 1.32%. Winners target price would put it amongst the leaders!

[winner69]

Just saying, OCA went green for the current calendar year, up 1.32%. Winners target price would put it amongst the leaders!

Yep, up to 87th out of 172 on the table ….and climbing fast

If Warriors could manage to match this anything could happen in the finals

[ValueNZ]

Not a bad couple of weeks to have a concentrated position in OCA.

I wonder if Maverick will return soon?

[winner69]

…..

Winner's Warriors supporter's comparison is so on the money. Those claiming victory in the first five minutes and it's for the great strategy identity by it's supporter's, despite the fact that a 40 knot ARV gale is at their back that is due strengthen at haf time and then the they are in the hands of referee Adrian Orr for some favourable decisions.

Yep iits turning out to be a great exercise. It has even piqued the interest of my acquaintances at LSE who might provide this thread as raw data to the students as part of their Behavioural Economics / Finance studies …. If so be interesting what conclusions they come to about fandom and investing

[ValueNZ]

Yep iits turning out to be a great exercise. It has even piqued the interest of my acquaintances at LSE who might provide this thread as raw data to the students as part of their Behavioural Economics / Finance studies …. If so be interesting what conclusions they come to about fandom and investing
Oh the irony!

Wonder if they would pull out your posts pumping the stock, followed by despair, followed by pumping, rinse and repeat.

That'd make for an interesting case study.

[Cupsy]

Yep iits turning out to be a great exercise. It has even piqued the interest of my acquaintances at LSE who might provide this thread as raw data to the students as part of their Behavioural Economics / Finance studies …. If so be interesting what conclusions they come to about fandom and investing

David Dreyman books are probably much more useful than this thread, in that regard, I would have thought? .

[Cupsy]

That's his worth that changes by the minute.
And Buffett has sold plenty of stock over the years.

What stock are you talking about? Berkshire?

[Rawz]

Not a bad couple of weeks to have a concentrated position in OCA.



It’s great when stocks go up aye

[Baa_Baa]

Especially when you have a lot of them. :t_up:

[ValueNZ]

It’s great when stocks go up aye
Well let's put it this way. Ideally things go up very quickly, and go down very quickly as to be able to benefit from the fluctuations by adjusting your portfolio accordingly.

My pockets are bursting at the seams with OCA after months of accumulating at rock bottom prices, so to see OCA finally start to see some share price appreciation isn't the worst thing.

[ValueNZ]

It’s great when stocks go up aye
When the general market gets more expensive, that is hell.

[Daytr]

Well let's put it this way. Ideally things go up very quickly, and go down very quickly as to be able to benefit from the fluctuations by adjusting your portfolio accordingly.

My pockets are bursting at the seams with OCA after months of accumulating at rock bottom prices, so to see OCA finally start to see some share price appreciation isn't the worst thing.

That sounds like trading to me, hey but that's a fool's game.

At least you are consistent. 😅

[ValueNZ]

That sounds like trading to me, hey but that's a fool's game.

At least you are consistent. 
I said ideally.

A trader makes financial decisions based on the belief that they think they know the direction the market will be headed in the short run.

An intelligent investor makes his decisions based on the current market price, and what he thinks the business is worth. He doesn't pretend like he knows what might happen in the short-term regarding the stock price, but he may stand to benefit from the folly of Mr Market. The greater the volatility, the greater the potential to transact at advantageous prices hence why I said ideally.

[Cupsy]

Yep iits turning out to be a great exercise. It has even piqued the interest of my acquaintances at LSE who might provide this thread as raw data to the students as part of their Behavioural Economics / Finance studies …. If so be interesting what conclusions they come to about fandom and investing

Speaking on aspects of fandom, I was thinking about words and adjectives describing ppl who always support the winning team and set about to truncheoning the losing team, in relation to investing it would be positive or negative on a particular stock based on the ebb and flow of the stock price.

So far I have:

Flip flopping bandwagon fan, a fair weather friend, a warm water warrior (runs at the posibilty of cold icy water), a fickle fashion follower, a Sunshine supporter, a hype follower, a front runner fan, and a wagon jumper.

Any how, my contribution to the fandom.....
Up the wahs!!! 😁

Disclaimer: meant with the best of comedic intention, in no way designed to offend any person, sports fan or investor.

[Habits]

Meanwhile Tina "you're simply the best" Turner never flags or changes her tune

[Ricky-bobby]

Big chunk (500k @ $0.8) for sale. Say this will put the brakes on the gains we have seen over the past few days. Been fun tho!

[allfromacell]

Big chunk (500k @ $0.8) for sale. Say this will put the brakes on the gains we have seen over the past few days. Been fun tho!

$0.80 would be a great place to take pause and try to cement some of these gains.

You get the feeling a lot of ARV funds are being dumped into OCA without much thought for the price. I think $0.80 is still good long term value but you have to expect a large pullback at some point.

[Daytr]

I said ideally.

A trader makes financial decisions based on the belief that they think they know the direction the market will be headed in the short run.

An intelligent investor makes his decisions based on the current market price, and what he thinks the business is worth. He doesn't pretend like he knows what might happen in the short-term regarding the stock price, but he may stand to benefit from the folly of Mr Market. The greater the volatility, the greater the potential to transact at advantageous prices hence why I said ideally.

But you keep saying you don't know what the business is worth, in your words, nobody does.
Consistency seems to be an issue for you as your thesis changes with the wind.

That's not trading, it's churn. 🤣

You don't think traders look at value?
Some do, some don't and just trade technically.
Best not put things in boxes, especially when your own carton seems to be elastic, which personally I don't think is a bad thing, as being adaptable to conditions is what the 'intelligent' investor would do. (I loved the self adoration by the way).

[Daytr]

I'm not wasting my time going through old posts for something that has already been discussed to death. That's something SailorBoy might do and bore everyone shirtless.
What I did say is that the market doesn't agree with you.
The double counting is everywhere. DMF, up front rent, free loans, float, sales, resales.
ForBar hasn't been proven right yet and without a turn in the property market its all moot anyway., not that you would recognize that.

If the model is so great and the macro doesn't matter, why is OCA & RYM trimming back their development model?
Why have they cut dividends?
Why have they sold off undeveloped land parcels?
Why have they replaced their CEOs?
Why in OCA's case is all their DMF being given back in subsidizing the day to day running of the villages?
Their costs have blown out in recent years and not kept pace with fees. RYM is facing a similar issue.

It's because in a favorable macro environment of low interest rates and a rising property market it's easy to lever and make money hand over fist.
Not so much when the macro environment is the opposite, now that macro environment might be changing slowly and it's what I predicted pretty much re interest rates and that the housing market is ahead of the wider economy. I.e. the wider economy will take longer than the housing market to recover, things are likely to look up for the RVs as the SP is starting to reflect.

I'm still waiting for a response ValueNZ.
If you don't have the answers that's all good, just say so.

[ValueNZ]

I'm still waiting for a response ValueNZ.
If you don't have the answers that's all good, just say so.
Because they are leading questions and I cannot be bothered repeating what has already been discussed.

[ValueNZ]

But you keep saying you don't know what the business is worth, in your words, nobody does.
Consistency seems to be an issue for you as your thesis changes with the wind.

That's not trading, it's churn. 藍

You don't think traders look at value?
Some do, some don't and just trade technically.
Best not put things in boxes, especially when your own carton seems to be elastic, which personally I don't think is a bad thing, as being adaptable to conditions is what the 'intelligent' investor would do. (I loved the self adoration by the way).
Intelligent investor is just the term Ben Graham used as a way of describing the actions and thought processes of an individual that is likely to have greater than average market returns over the long run. Not self adoration, my 2 year CAGR is below the SP500.

[kiwikeith]

Intelligent investor is just the term Ben Graham used as a way of describing the actions and thought processes of an individual that is likely to have greater than average market returns over the long run. Not self adoration, my 2 year CAGR is below the SP500.

There is no shame in that, particularly if you are buying dividend yield stocks. In the six months to June 2023 the SP500 rose 10%. That is for 500 companies. However if you strip out 7 of those companies - Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvida, Amazon, Meta and Tesla - the return was actually negative.

I do wonder if the worm will turn. Former stock market behomeths like the oil companies (7 sisters), IBM, Nokia, the telephone operators, Brierley in NZ etc all came back down to earth.

[Daytr]

I'm still waiting for a response ValueNZ.
If you don't have the answers that's all good, just say so.

That's a cop out.

[Daytr]

Intelligent investor is just the term Ben Graham used as a way of describing the actions and thought processes of an individual that is likely to have greater than average market returns over the long run. Not self adoration, my 2 year CAGR is below the SP500.

Fair enough.

[Bjauck]

The low-ball offer for ARV has certainly given a fillip to OCA. My least successful holding is actually now in the blue. Yay. I hope it is not temporary, but who knows in this market.

[bottomfeeder]

You would think if the SP went up by 60%, the Stock Exchange would requuest a please explain if there is any reason, such as a takeover approach. In a cynical way, I hope the SP hasnt been manipulated up to these dizzying heights so quickly in preparation for a capital raise at a decent level.

Why doesnt the company issue any advice or reasons for the increase.

[X-men]

Why raise capital??? OCA doesn't need to raise capital

[ValueNZ]

You would think if the SP went up by 60%, the Stock Exchange would requuest a please explain if there is any reason, such as a takeover approach. In a cynical way, I hope the SP hasnt been manipulated up to these dizzying heights so quickly in preparation for a capital raise at a decent level.

Why doesnt the company issue any advice or reasons for the increase.
OCA doesn't need a capital raise...

[bottomfeeder]

Why raise capital??? OCA doesn't need to raise capital

Everyone wants to raise capital. If OCA doesnt need more capital, why dont they pay a dividend.

[ValueNZ]

Everyone wants to raise capital. If OCA doesnt need more capital, why dont they pay a dividend.
If Berkshire doesn't need more capital, why don't they pay a dividend

[bottomfeeder]

If Berkshire doesn't need more capital, why don't they pay a dividend
Berkshire is a totally different kettle of fish to OCA. Not sure about US taxation compared to NZ either.

[winner69]

Message from Warriors fan Jason - Game day @NZWarriors family. Our journey to the top 8 starts tonight. Lesssssgggggoooo! #UpTheWahs

Oceania fans just as excited ….share price just started heading to $1 plus ….let’s go Oceania they chant

[Panda-NZ-]

I think the rally has stopped now.. 1.2mil shares @ 0.80c will be hard to clear.

Sold and made a nice profit :)

[Ricky-bobby]

I think the rally has stopped now.. 1.2mil shares @ 0.80c will be hard to clear.

Sold and made a nice profit :)

Saw the opportunity and baled as well… small lose for me tho…

[ValueNZ]

I think the rally has stopped now.. 1.2mil shares @ 0.80c will be hard to clear.

Sold and made a nice profit :)
Have fun paying tax on your trade.

You are going to declare your profit as income right...?

[allfromacell]

V shape recovery back to $1 is the most likely outcome. I'd argue it's far too early in the turning cycle to consider selling although I do expect a small correction at some stage.

[Panda-NZ-]

Have fun paying tax on your trade.

You are going to declare your profit as income right...?

I love contributing to a civilised society. I win, you win, everyone wins from my recent trade.

[bull....]

I think the rally has stopped now.. 1.2mil shares @ 0.80c will be hard to clear.

Sold and made a nice profit :)

well done , was your thinking the fundamentals of the company have not changed , but the short term demand for rv stock has changed because of arvida sale ?

[ValueNZ]

I love contributing to a civilised society. I win, you win, everyone wins from my recent trade.
The cronies especially win

[Panda-NZ-]

well done , was your thinking the fundamentals of the company have not changed , but the short term demand for rv stock has changed because of arvida sale ?

Once I new uptrend is established and the 1.2mil cleared I may buy back in (analysts better than me think OCA is still good value). I'm more risk averse.

[ValueNZ]

once i new uptrend is established and the 1.2mil cleared i may buy back in (analysts better than me think oca is still good value). I'm more risk averse.
Your actions are far from being risk averse.

[Panda-NZ-]

Love you too. If you're going to "call me out" (exciting) it's going to require further explanation.

[ValueNZ]

Love you too. If you're going to "call me out" (exciting) it's going to require further explanation.
Risk is the chance of permanent loss of capital. Jumping into a stock because it's risen quickly, then selling it within a week is highly risky.

Swing trading is definitionally risky.

[Panda-NZ-]

So you would recommend I stay long in OCA. How has that worked for an investor in this company (and take your pick of timeframe so long as it's >1yr).

[Baa_Baa]

OCA doesn't need a capital raise...

$10,000 invested on 5 May 2017 will have returned (simple) 30% or $3025 at 4.18% p.a.

Source: Sharesight Sharechecker Performance calculator.

[Perky]

Overseas infrastructure funds like these businesses. MET got bought, now ARV got bought, the trend is in..…good chance in next few years OCA gets the ruler run as its next cheapest cab off the rank.

Are the fundies going to pay a premium for the best in class SUM or the smaller dog that can grow into a bigger dog quicker.
I think holding some OCA alongside SUM or RYM not a bad strategy

[ValueNZ]

At 42c I might get tempted.
Deeper value.
This is why we don't set arbitrary price targets folks. :eek2:

[Leemsip]

Nothing arbitrary about 42.... just ask any hitch hiker

[winner69]

Great win for Warriors over the Tigers 28-16. The Tigers are the worst team in the NRL this year but a win is a win …..and the dream of ‘this is our year’ is still alive. Fans are getting really excited again and can’t wait for another win next week over the Eels. Yes, it feels like this really ‘is our year’. UP THE WAHS

Oceania had a terrific week with its share price ending up 8 cents at 78 cents. Nothing really changed in the company itself except the new CEO started and she might have bought good fortune with her. The big thing was Arvida being taken over and the price just reinforced the cheapness o& Oceania. This saw existing fans buying even more and a lot of new fans joining the bandwagon. It’s beginning to look like this is the year for Oceania, as one observer put it they going great guns with a 40 knot ARV gale is at their back that is due strengthen at half time and then the they are in the hands of referee Adrian Orr for some favourable decisions. What can go wrong.

A casual observer says a positive week for both but wonders if the momentum will be sustained. Interesting week coming up.

[ValueNZ]

Anyone else see Suzanne Dvorak's work experience as a bit of a red flag?

Maybe I am a cynic but seeing chief executive at Save the Children and working for the UN makes me think she might be a left leaning nut.

Oceania is a for profit entity and I hope her decision making reflects that fact.

It would have been ideal if she had spoken at the AGM, so we could gauge where her focus is.

[winner69]

Anyone else see Suzanne Dvorak's work experience as a bit of a red flag?

Maybe I am a cynic but seeing chief executive at Save the Children and working for the UN makes me think she might be a left leaning nut.

Oceania is a for profit entity and I hope her decision making reflects that fact.

It would have been ideal if she had spoken at the AGM, so we could gauge where her focus is.

C’mon Value … read her full resume ….and there’s no harm in having social conscience as well and helping those less fortunate in her spare time

Best part is … As an Industrial Advisor to EQT Group, Suzanne advised in the acquisition of Stockland Retirement Living and was transitional CEO for the newly rebranded business, Levande – one of Australia’s largest retirement living providers with 10,000 residents and 58 retirement villages (formerly owned by Stockland).

EQT just loves buying retirement villages …maybe she’s a ‘plant’ and takeover Oceania on the horizon

[winner69]

Anyone else see Suzanne Dvorak's work experience as a bit of a red flag?

Maybe I am a cynic but seeing chief executive at Save the Children and working for the UN makes me think she might be a left leaning nut.

Oceania is a for profit entity and I hope her decision making reflects that fact.

It would have been ideal if she had spoken at the AGM, so we could gauge where her focus is.

Better than having an accountant trying to run the place

More empathy to “Believe in Better”

[winner69]

Any of you Oceania fans show your love with branded gear …like ‘Believe in Better’ tees or something

Chief Wahs fan Jason really into it …pity about the company he keeps

UP THE WAHS

[winner69]

$10,000 invested on 5 May 2017 will have returned (simple) 30% or $3025 at 4.18% p.a.

Source: Sharesight Sharechecker Performance calculator.

Many gurus reckon put $x into S&P500 every month and you’ll end up rich

So had a look if this ‘strategy’ applied to OCA

If a punter bought $100 of OCA shares every month since they listed they would have spent $8,700 and now hold 9,100 share …worth $7,100. So a $1,600 capital loss …offset by say ~$1,000 in divies

That punter will just have to persevere with his strategy a few more years …..he’ll come right one day…but on other hand he’s saved $7,100 so not too bad

[winner69]

Many gurus reckon put $x into S&P500 every month and you’ll end up rich

So had a look if this ‘strategy’ applied to OCA

If a punter bought $100 of OCA shares every month since they listed they would have spent $8,700 and now hold 9,100 share …worth $7,100. So a $1,600 capital loss …offset by say ~$1,000 in divies

That punter will just have to persevere with his strategy a few more years …..he’ll come right one day…but on other hand he’s saved $7,100 so not too bad

Did this for IFT as well

You'd have 1,592 IFT shares now worth $17,260

So $100 a month into OCA gives your $7,100 but into IFT its $17,260

Hmmm

[Bjauck]

Overseas infrastructure funds like these businesses. MET got bought, now ARV got bought, the trend is in..…good chance in next few years OCA gets the ruler run as its next cheapest cab off the rank.

Are the fundies going to pay a premium for the best in class SUM or the smaller dog that can grow into a bigger dog quicker.
I think holding some OCA alongside SUM or RYM not a bad strategy NZ and NZ Oldies especially have an awful lot of their wealth wrapped up in their accommodation. Overseas funds want pieces of that pie!

[Daytr]

This is why we don't set arbitrary price targets folks. :eek2:


Nothing arbitrary about 42.... just ask any hitch hiker

Exactly Leemsip.
It's lost on youth who in this case have either no understanding or perhaps sense of humour.

In all seriousness, it will be interesting when the next OCA report comes out to see if much has actually changed.

[Baa_Baa]

Forbar pile on another 7,388,400 shares (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/435329/attachment/423706/435329-423706.pdf) SH 7.174%

[winner69]

Forbar pile on another 7,388,400 shares (https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/435329/attachment/423706/435329-423706.pdf) SH 7.174%


They’ve sold about 30 million ARV shares (say $50m?) lately ….not much going to OCA then

Must prefer RYM

[Baa_Baa]

They’ve sold about 30 million ARV shares (say $50m?) lately ….not much going to OCA then

Must prefer RYM

Maybe, with Forbar at 3.83% of RYM, might be a SH notice over 5% if you're right.

[Bjauck]

They’ve sold about 30 million ARV shares (say $50m?) lately ….not much going to OCA then

Must prefer RYM
Maybe not yet. Perhaps they expect a bit of retracement in OCA’s share price, with a temporary cash pile in the meantime. They presumably don’t want to put too much upward pressure on the price if they want to build a bigger stake.

[winner69]

Bad week for Warriors going down 20-30 to lowly ranked Eels. ‘This is our year’ getting harder to achieve and reached the stage where they need other teams to perform badly while they start winning. But most fans remain optimistic (after all they’ve already bought tickets for future games) as they say they’ve got a team full of talent but just have to play well. However one said ‘ That’s me done about the Wahs this year. Catch yall next season, can’t say this one was fun’ UP THE WAHS

Oceania share price crept up 1 cent last week to close at 79 cents. Fans were rather quiet this week, cheerleaders were very quiet. They were probably basking in the glory of the last week or so and just excitedly waiting for the next step up. That next step is inevitable the fans say so only an another week or so before it starts heading to a buck. GO OCEANIA YOU BEAUTIFUL THING.

A casual observer would say it’s not going to be ‘this is our year’ this year ….maybe it’s going to be next year. Oceania seems to much the same position and next week could be the defining week to see if this is going to be their year.

[allfromacell]

Sales in Auckland going gangbusters, that's good.

"A significant number of buyers were drawn into the Auckland residential housing market in July - attracted by growing confidence that interest rates have peaked. “In July, a growing number of buyers decided that with mortgage interest rates falling and at current prices, now was the time to act,” said Stephen Barfoot, Director of Barfoot & Thompson.
“In what is traditionally the slowest month of the year for sales we sold 902 homes in July, nearly a third more than we sold in the previous month and a quarter higher than in the same month last year. "

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market-reports/2024/july/market-update

[winner69]

Warriors most loyal fan (and a sponsor) Jason said yesterday -

Supporting the @NZWarriors with pride this morning. Very disappointing performance on Friday night. We didn’t defend well or convert our opportunities yet again. Still a lot to play for this season though - and the club needs our support more than ever. #UpTheWahs

I wonder if a Oceania fan will come out and say -

Supporting Oceania with pride. Company performance of late a bit disappointing. We haven’t been selling as many units as we should and we struggle to keep costs under control. Still a lot to look forward to but company performance needs to pick up …and if things are in our favour the share price will follow. Go Oceania

Big news out of Warriors is that star player SJ is going to retire at end of the season. So both Oceania and Warriors have seen key players retire. A casual observer would think that both are past their best and that dreams of ‘this is our year’ won’t come true so decided to move on and give somebody else a go.

Maybe next year ‘is our year’

[bottomfeeder]

Sold quite a few at .79, just wonder where the next low will be to buy them back.

[X-men]

U missed .lol...72c just passed

[bottomfeeder]

U missed .lol...72c just passed

I was expecting somewhere around 60 cents. Oh well may be volatile for a bit longer.

[X-men]

U better buy back now...last chance....OCR meeting next wed...Dow meltdown is not happening..lol

[nztx]

U better buy back now...last chance....OCR meeting next wed...Dow meltdown is not happening..lol


Yeah but what happened to heightened interest riding in to acquire great piles of Rest Home Deep Value ? ;)

Too busy chasing faster money elsewhere ?

[X-men]

Well .. meltdown is not happening..back to 78c...when the market open...

[winner69]

A year ago OCA share price was 80 cents

10 Year Govt was over 5% …..now just over 4% ….and property market is a lot more active than a year ago

But the OCA share price is struggling to get back to 80 cents

interest rates and property market supposedly are key drivers of OCA share price. If so seeing share price not much different than a year ago company performance must be seen to have deteriorated over the last year

[X-men]

Next week.. Wednesday is OCR decision....so should get a confirmation from the Orrs regarding the cut

I reconk it will be .25 cut next week.

The economy is in stress...many small businesses are struggling.. because people is not spending 💰

[Cupsy]

A year ago OCA share price was 80 cents

10 Year Govt was over 5% …..now just over 4% ….and property market is a lot more active than a year ago

But the OCA share price is struggling to get back to 80 cents

interest rates and property market supposedly are key drivers of OCA share price. If so seeing share price not much different than a year ago company performance must be seen to have deteriorated over the last year

The problem is the wagon does not have sufficient hand rails.

[X-men]

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/08/08/another-major-bank-cuts-mortgage-rates-ahead-of-ocr-decision/

[allfromacell]

A year ago OCA share price was 80 cents

10 Year Govt was over 5% …..now just over 4% ….and property market is a lot more active than a year ago

But the OCA share price is struggling to get back to 80 cents

interest rates and property market supposedly are key drivers of OCA share price. If so seeing share price not much different than a year ago company performance must be seen to have deteriorated over the last year

You're giving the market too much credit, Winner. The NZX has a poor track record when it comes to pricing equities, especially for stocks like OCA with relatively low liquidity. Just a few months ago, the market valued OCA at a market cap of only $370 million, despite having net assets of over $1 billion. It was practically free money for anyone with an ounce of courage.

It's surprising to see this thread almost fall off the first page. All the bears have gone extinct, it’s a shame because their posts were quite entertaining to read.