OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Baa_Baa]

Man we were doing so well in earlier, discussing OCA…sharing ideas on how we can look at value, things to look out for.

How does the conversation literally always deteriorate into fighting? Every time.

lol.

We're getting there, much closer than ever before. Problem is or may continue to be, we will never land on a consensus as to the 'value' of OCA.

As a thought experiment, think about it like this. If Kianga Ora decided to buy us out at fair value now, to convert all of our properties to community homes, rooms and rentals, what would 'fair value' be right now? What would you 'value' that buyout at, if you were the Kianga Ora procurement person?

I suggest Kianga Ora because they're not interested in profit like a private equity, another RV, going concern investor, would be. They'd just look at asset value, strip out all the revenue, liabilities, debt, operating expenses etc, and pay just what they thought the remaining assets were worth.

OCA reckon the assets are worth $2.8b, but you'd have to subtract all the other stuff.

What do you think they would offer, now, to purchase all of the OCA assets?

[SailorRob]

Sailor: you don’t need a target price. Thank you ValueNZ for explaining that for me. If you have a target price show me 10 years of returns or your view is worth nothing.

Also sailor: to me it’s worth $2 lol..


My comment was meant to convey that unless you can show us 10 years of returns that prove it, you are probably not good at precisely valuing businesses.

[Baa_Baa]

I have not even thought about it. But of course at some price I would sell. No idea what that is, not even ball park.

I agree, I've never thought about a price for OCA that I would sell at, like why would you unless you were trading the shares, which I'm not.

[SailorRob]

How do you arrive at the minimum market cap of $1.5B?

Based on assumptions on likely increase in total asset value net of debt?

Doing a DCF is impossible I think for the reasons you pointed out earlier. And as Munger once said, he never once saw Warren do one.


Basically with this type of thought process;

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-OCA-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=1032199&viewfull=1#post1032199

[ValueNZ]

We're getting there, much closer than ever before. Problem is or may continue to be, we will never land on a consensus as to the 'value' of OCA.

As a thought experiment, think about it like this. If Kianga Ora decided to buy us out at fair value now, to convert all of our properties to community homes, rooms and rentals, what would 'fair value' be right now? What would you 'value' that buyout at, if you were the Kianga Ora procurement person?

I suggest Kianga Ora because they're not interested in profit like a private equity, another RV, going concern investor, would be. They'd just look at asset value, strip out all the revenue, liabilities, debt, operating expenses etc, and pay just what they thought the remaining assets were worth.

OCA reckon the assets are worth $2.8b, but you'd have to subtract all the other stuff.

What do you think they would offer, now, to purchase all of the OCA assets?
I like the thought experiment but Kainga Ora is probably not the best example of a buyer since they are known for paying above market value to acquire properties.

[SailorRob]

Remember Rawz, I said I don't know what it's worth, you replied saying that is NUTS and you cannot believe I could be so stupid, and you have a target for everything, implying that you can value these businesses. So I said show us your results... And of course you wont as they prove the very opposite.

[SailorRob]

I like the thought experiment but Kainga Ora is probably not the best example of a buyer since they are known for paying above market value to acquire properties.


Took the words off my keyboard.

[Baa_Baa]

My comment was meant to convey that unless you can show us 10 years of returns that prove it, you are probably not good at precisely valuing businesses.

Who is good at precisely valuing businesses? Rawz seems a good guy but he conflates value with market price, per share. The market doesn't 'value' the business, it just prices it. Is the market price (cap), 'right' all of the time, no it's not most of the time. Right there is our advantage, we can decide whether market price equates to our interpretation of value, and buy, hold, or sell our holdings.

People who live in the market price tend not to have too much concern for the value of the business, they tout metrics like P (price) E (earnings), etc rather than value investors who are only interested in the delta value to market as to whether now is time to get some, get more, hold, or get out.

[Baa_Baa]

I like the thought experiment but Kainga Ora is probably not the best example of a buyer since they are known for paying above market value to acquire properties.

Well discount it by whatever you think they pay above market value. Maybe they're not as silly as most think they are, and factor that discount into their offer.

What do you think their offer would be? +/- a bit

[SailorRob]

Who is good at precisely valuing businesses? Rawz seems a good guy but he conflates value with market price, per share. The market doesn't 'value' the business, it just prices it. Is the market price (cap), 'right' all of the time, no it's not most of the time. Right there is our advantage, we can decide whether market price equates to our interpretation of value, and buy, hold, or sell our holdings.

People who live in the market price tend not to have too much concern for the value of the business, they tout metrics like P (price) E (earnings), etc rather than value investors who are only interested in the delta value to market as to whether now is time to get some, get more, hold, or get out.

Who is good at precisely valuing businesses?

Nobody - this is my point.

[ValueNZ]

Well discount it by whatever you think they pay above market value. Maybe they're not as silly as most think they are, and factor that discount into their offer.

What do you think their offer would be? +/- a bit
I don't feel confident speculating what their offer could be. Again I think KO would pay a premium to book.

I think what's better to figure out is what OCA would be worth in a liquidation scenario where you sell assets at a discount. I might have a go at that in the morning when I'm sober :blink:.

[Rawz]

I would love for someone to put forward a valuation of OCA.

I can’t. Which is exactly why I wouldn’t invest in OCA. I have no idea what metric to value this beast. I suspect most don’t and only ‘feel’ its deep value but won’t have a clue when it’s fair value or overvalued.

I invest in TWR because it’s trading half the earnings multiple as its listed peers.

I invest in 2CC because its sustainable dividend yield is far too high compared to other dividend stocks and/or term deposit rates. Additionally is on an unfairly low earnings multiple compared to its closest peer, TRA.

So for these example investments I have made, I have a very good idea of where fair value is and where overvalued is. (There are other metrics like debt levels and positive news cycles etc that I use to invest but just keeping it simple for now).

How are you guys valuing OCA?

[SailorRob]

I would love for someone to put forward a valuation of OCA.

I can’t. Which is exactly why I wouldn’t invest in OCA. I have no idea what metric to value this beast. I suspect most don’t and only ‘feel’ its deep value but won’t have a clue when it’s fair value or overvalued.

I invest in TWR because it’s trading half the earnings multiple as its listed peers.

I invest in 2CC because its sustainable dividend yield is far too high compared to other dividend stocks and/or term deposit rates. Additionally is on an unfairly low earnings multiple compared to its closest peer, TRA.

So for these example investments I have made, I have a very good idea of where fair value is and where overvalued is. (There are other metrics like debt levels and positive news cycles etc that I use to invest but just keeping it simple for now).

How are you guys valuing OCA?

This has to be a piss take.

[ValueNZ]

I would love for someone to put forward a valuation of OCA.

I can’t. Which is exactly why I wouldn’t invest in OCA. I have no idea what metric to value this beast. I suspect most don’t and only ‘feel’ its deep value but won’t have a clue when it’s fair value or overvalued.

I invest in TWR because it’s trading half the earnings multiple as its listed peers.

I invest in 2CC because its sustainable dividend yield is far too high compared to other dividend stocks and/or term deposit rates. Additionally is on an unfairly low earnings multiple compared to its closest peer, TRA.

So for these example investments I have made, I have a very good idea of where fair value is and where overvalued is. (There are other metrics like debt levels and positive news cycles etc that I use to invest but just keeping it simple for now).

How are you guys valuing OCA?
Discounted cash flows

[mistaTea]

Discounted cash flows

How have you managed to estimate those?

[SailorRob]

Discounted cash flows

You must have other commentary on his post, save me the work.

I think he's taking the piss but not sure.

[ValueNZ]

You must have other commentary on his post, save me the work.

I think he's taking the piss but not sure.
He is not taking the piss Rob, he is a good representation of your average market participant. Can you remember his post about OCA having above 30% gearing or something like that as a reason not to invest... Most people are not thinking about cash flows but instead different metrics. Imagine buying something because it's half the P/E of it's peers, or because it's got a sustainable dividend yield.

That's all I've got.

[Rawz]

You must have other commentary on his post, save me the work.

I think he's taking the piss but not sure.

How about you put your valuation up here instead of your typical condescending no value add reply..

Make it ‘clear and concise’, as you say.

We are all waiting sailorboy

[Rawz]

He is not taking the piss Rob, he is a good representation of your average market participant. Can you remember his post about OCA having above 30% gearing or something like that as a reason not to invest... Most people are not thinking about cash flows but instead different metrics. Imagine buying something because it's half the P/E of it's peers, or because it's got a sustainable dividend yield.

That's all I've got.

Dude, sailor has you so gassed up it would be funny if not so sad. Don’t be his lap dog and fail the good character test as he does multiple times a day.

[nztx]

Dude, sailor has you so gassed up it would be funny if not so sad. Don’t be his lap dog and fail the good character test as he does multiple times a day.



Do try to be kind .. all other contributions & views on here might be considered reasonably "discounted" :)

[mike2020]

How about you put your valuation up here instead of your typical condescending no value add reply..

Make it ‘clear and concise’, as you say.

We are all waiting sailorboy

To be fair he is replying to a quote about 2cc and TWR, while they both may have decent metrics of late and I have held both at different times they have not been exactly shining examples of stable investment. In fact far from it. I could have made similar comments about HGH or PGW a couple of years ago. Way better div payers than OCA...and I was quite a fan of both, no longer hold either.

Just out of interest how long was MET in the dumps before it was taken over? I see cost control happening in care, and with what looked to be extra funding going into the health system from the budget, I heard some talk of an aging population in a breakdown of health spending so I figured some must be directed towards care. OCA is 10% of my portfolio and it is free carried but I feel there is huge opportunity in the not-too-distant future and when the mood changes it will change quickly.

Apparently Treasury are forecasting interest rate cuts around September but Orr was talking 2025. People are buying houses and two I looked at yesterday were moving into a village. Although all this deep diving into the accounts counts, what happens on the ground matters.

[mistaTea]

I have come to believe there is a Dandelo (do ya ken it?) in all of us.

We must not feed it.

Let’s see how long we can go without feeding our inner Dandelo today.

[SailorRob]

How about you put your valuation up here instead of your typical condescending no value add reply..

Make it ‘clear and concise’, as you say.

We are all waiting sailorboy


Sorry Rawz, I just thought your comments on why you bought Tower and 2CC were asinine and with a process like that you will get yourself in a world of trouble.

On valuing OCA, one of the ways I think, which will probably be out of left field for many, would be to take the current asset base, being NTA plus the float (as roughly these are the assets who's returns fall to the equity)

I'd look how they have grown over the last 5 years and then halve that rate going forward over the next 5 to come up with an asset base number 5 years out. I would then look at what is required to generate a 10% return from here on the current cap and convert that into a return on the asset base 5 years out and see how that looks.

Alternatively I would take the current total asset base and figure that the returns generated off those assets go two ways - to the equity and to the debt holders. I would then think about what return I want as an equity holder and figure out what the debt holders will take and then look at the returns required off the asset base to satisfy both those needs. Then I would try and think about how this looks going forwards.

Another way would be to consider the differences between NPAT, underlying earnings and comprehensive income, think what each is telling you and how they have changed over the years and pick the one which encompasses the real economic returns over time and then compare that to current market cap and form an opinion of roughly what that number looks like a few years out.

But the return on assets is very simple and if current management cant achieve a low single digit return, then someone can. We also have example cases of what similar assets have generated and as Baa_Baa pointed out we could even consider what the assets could return in a different form of usage.

There is no point and no need to get too fancy or specific, this is the beauty of it.

This video (https://x.com/david_katunaric/status/1792307523577319839) is probably the greatest contribution I have ever made to ShareTrader I would watch it VERY carefully a few times and take notes, really think about it.

[Rawz]

Thanks sailor, that’s a good approach and post. I knew you had it in you, getting harder and harder to pry this type of info of you.. if you ever actually run the valuation exercise you should post it up here.

You may not like to compare industry peer earnings but it works well for me and has been very profitable, so no need to worry about me

[Daytr]

How about you put your valuation up here instead of your typical condescending no value add reply..

Make it ‘clear and concise’, as you say.

We are all waiting sailorboy

Didn't Sailorboy say it was worth $2 recently?
ValueNZ I think mentioned $3.60 I believe.

For the record I valued it at 99c a few months ago, but I would reduce that now to around 90c after the latest report.

SailorBoy, plus the 'float' again!
Jeeeze you OCA fans love to double dip & that's just bad manners.

[SailorRob]

Didn't Sailorboy say it was worth $2 recently?
ValueNZ I think mentioned $3.60 I believe.

For the record I valued it at 99c a few months ago, but I would reduce that now to around 90c after the latest report.

SailorBoy, plus the 'float' again!
Jeeeze you OCA fans love to double dip & that's just bad manners.

I said somewhere north of 2.

And you said you valued it at around 99c.

Which describes you perfectly.

Wouldn't you just say around $1?

Around 99c 🤣

[SailorRob]

Thanks sailor, that’s a good approach and post. I knew you had it in you, getting harder and harder to pry this type of info of you.. if you ever actually run the valuation exercise you should post it up here.

You may not like to compare industry peer earnings but it works well for me and has been very profitable, so no need to worry about me

To be fair, OCA is the business I understand the least out of my holdings.

I know nothing about tower, but I'd understand the business better than I do OCA.

[SailorRob]

Didn't Sailorboy say it was worth $2 recently?
ValueNZ I think mentioned $3.60 I believe.

For the record I valued it at 99c a few months ago, but I would reduce that now to around 90c after the latest report.

SailorBoy, plus the 'float' again!
Jeeeze you OCA fans love to double dip & that's just bad manners.

Float the only reason I own, it's the holy grail.

[Daytr]

I said somewhere north of 2.

And you said you valued it at around 99c.

Which describes you perfectly.

Wouldn't you just say around $1?

Around 99c 🤣

Always trying to spruik even a cent. 🤣😉
TBF that's 99c was where my calcs came to at the time, but as I say I would now value it at 90c.
Still a healthy premium to what it is now.

North of $2, maybe one day, but its not what it's worth right now.

[ValueNZ]

Sorry Rawz, I just thought your comments on why you bought Tower and 2CC were asinine and with a process like that you will get yourself in a world of trouble.

On valuing OCA, one of the ways I think, which will probably be out of left field for many, would be to take the current asset base, being NTA plus the float (as roughly these are the assets who's returns fall to the equity)

I'd look how they have grown over the last 5 years and then halve that rate going forward over the next 5 to come up with an asset base number 5 years out. I would then look at what is required to generate a 10% return from here on the current cap and convert that into a return on the asset base 5 years out and see how that looks.

Alternatively I would take the current total asset base and figure that the returns generated off those assets go two ways - to the equity and to the debt holders. I would then think about what return I want as an equity holder and figure out what the debt holders will take and then look at the returns required off the asset base to satisfy both those needs. Then I would try and think about how this looks going forwards.

Another way would be to consider the differences between NPAT, underlying earnings and comprehensive income, think what each is telling you and how they have changed over the years and pick the one which encompasses the real economic returns over time and then compare that to current market cap and form an opinion of roughly what that number looks like a few years out.

But the return on assets is very simple and if current management cant achieve a low single digit return, then someone can. We also have example cases of what similar assets have generated and as Baa_Baa pointed out we could even consider what the assets could return in a different form of usage.

There is no point and no need to get too fancy or specific, this is the beauty of it.

This video (https://x.com/david_katunaric/status/1792307523577319839) is probably the greatest contribution I have ever made to ShareTrader I would watch it VERY carefully a few times and take notes, really think about it.
Thanks for reposting that clip SailorRob. Sounds like you have a title for a Oceania writeup if you end up doing one... "Phil Fisher-type growth company at a Ben Graham-like price"

[ValueNZ]

Didn't Sailorboy say it was worth $2 recently?
ValueNZ I think mentioned $3.60 I believe.

For the record I valued it at 99c a few months ago, but I would reduce that now to around 90c after the latest report.

SailorBoy, plus the 'float' again!
Jeeeze you OCA fans love to double dip & that's just bad manners.
I'm pretty sure I said OCA is worth at a minimum $2.50 at some point. Don't remember ever mentioning $3.60, but quote the post if you can find it.

[Daytr]

I'm pretty sure I said OCA is worth at a minimum $2.50 at some point. Don't remember ever mentioning $3.60, but quote the post if you can find it.

You could be right, I thought I remembered $3.60, but too many posts to scroll through to verify.

Either way it's just not worth anywhere near that. Maybe in a few years, 5 years... who knows. But not currently.

[ValueNZ]

You could be right, I thought I remembered $3.60, but too many posts to scroll through to verify.

Either way it's just not worth anywhere near that. Maybe in a few years, 5 years... who knows. But not currently.
I don't remember ever actually saying $3.60, but it's not that absurd of a valuation. OCA is sitting on $4 per share of assets growing at a 15% CAGR, so that's something to have a think about.

[Daytr]

I don't remember ever actually saying $3.60, but it's not that absurd of a valuation. OCA is sitting on $4 per share of assets growing at a 15% CAGR, so that's something to have a think about.

So you think its possibly worth more than Ryman is currently valued.
$2.6Bln and making $40 - $50Mln a year.
That's not thinking, that's dreaming.

[winner69]

Warriors have the bye this week so no game for them. Fans reflect on where they are on the table …12th but only a win or two from the top 8. So finals football on the card and fans still saying ‘this is our year’ UP THE WAHS

Oceania share price down 3 cents (5%) last week. Not a good week after the excitement of the results announcement. But the fans are still happy and if anything they are becoming even more convinced that this is our year with share price doubling. The cheer leaders are bringing the mob with them with ‘deep value’ talk. GO OCEANIA

A casual observer would be saying this is not our year for either of them and saying maybe that’s 5 years or more away.

[Lease]

We still haven't seen our genius Maverick turn up since OCA results were out.

Maverick, we need your expertise decode on OCA results, and your insights on OCA's future.

[SailorRob]

Even more fun is that the market 'values' (prices) OCA at a paltry $398m market cap. Unbelievable, sitting on $2.8 billion total assets, + around ~$900m 'float', less debt at ~$600m (I can't be bothered looking up the exact numbers), and probably some other things to factor in, but wow, look at the delta between market cap and actual value.

Go figure, how is that even possible? Thank goodness for inefficient markets, it's a value investors dream.


So the way I read this is that he is saying they are sitting on 2.8 mil assets plus 900 mil of that is float and take out the debt.

But I agree it could be seen the other way.

But from studying Baa_Baa's posts over the years, he understands it like I do and will not have meant to add the 900 to the 2.8 bil

[Baa_Baa]

So the way I read this is that he is saying they are sitting on 2.8 mil assets plus 900 mil of that is float and take out the debt.

But I agree it could be seen the other way.

But from studying Baa_Baa's posts over the years, he understands it like I do and will not have meant to add the 900 to the 2.8 bil

Yeah my bad, poorly worded. The $1b of refundable ORA sits in liabilities on the balance sheet, so technically it's an offset against assets. But in practice the refundable ORA's are never actually refunded in TOTO and in fact grow, as a non-callable, interest free, bucket of money that can be leveraged by the company.

[winner69]

IF you are taking out those revalutions you may also want to reverse out the depreciation and impairments as well, which would make things less worse.

You can play the game of what you wish to adjust for when forming your 'true' picture of how the company is doing....
But I have to say that my analyses of the accounts shows that this is poorest performance in the last four years!

Finally got round to updating my OCA file ….would have to agree with Snowie in that overall this is the poorest performance in recent years

[winner69]

It's only profitable because the 'Total comprehensive income' is skewed by +$60.7m Village Operations "change in fair value of investment property", and a +41.2m Care Operations "gain on revaluation of property, plant etc". Neither of these are 'real income' so if they were taken out, the +$70.5 total falls to a -$31.5m 'Comprehensive loss'.

So the questions I have are: a) is it plausible that combined property has achieved a revaluation upwards of +$102m, esp in the current property market?, and b) should these revaluations be included in an income statement at all?

Good questions BaaBaa

And maybe this where daytr got his 30m/40m operating loss number from

[Baa_Baa]

Good questions BaaBaa

And maybe this where daytr got his 30m/40m operating loss number from

Depends on whether you're looking at the Income statement, or the Cashflow statement, but net net, OCA is profitable.

What, from your previous post makes you conclude "that overall this is the poorest performance in recent years"? Would you mind sharing your analysis?

[ValueNZ]

Depends on whether you're looking at the Income statement, or the Cashflow statement, but net net, OCA is profitable.

What, from your previous post makes you conclude "that overall this is the poorest performance in recent years"? Would you mind sharing your analysis?
Also depends on how you define profit. I think the underlying NPAT is the most representative of economic reality. Underlying NPAT is essentially Profit After Tax – Fair Value movement of Investment Property + Realised gain on resales + Realised development margin. 15137

Although I have no clue why they are adding back depreciation... So maybe take $10m off their reported $62m figure.

[winner69]

That guy Harvey Specter who started this thread nearly 10 years ago was an interesting character

[SailorRob]

That guy Harvey Specter who started this thread nearly 10 years was an interesting character

Tell us about him winner

[winner69]

Also depends on how you define profit. I think the underlying NPAT is the most representative of economic reality. Underlying NPAT is essentially Profit After Tax – Fair Value movement of Investment Property + Realised gain on resales + Realised development margin. 15137

Although I have no clue why they are adding back depreciation... So maybe take $10m off their reported $62m figure.

They started doing that a few years ago as it ‘better reflected care performance’ but cynically one could say it was done to make the Underlying NPAT look better off

[ValueNZ]

They started doing that a few years ago as it ‘better reflected care performance’ but cynically one could say it was done to make the Underlying NPAT look better off
You're right.

We just need to make our own adjustments, because that's a real expense that decreases profit. $52m on $400m market cap for a company growing like Oceania is damn cheap anyway.

[SailorRob]

You forgot to add the $950M of 'float debt' :t_down:

You're quite the analyst eh Snow.

[winner69]

A Wahs fan sent me this saying ….probably applies to the Oceania fandom as well -

“Inside every opportunity is a disappointment ready to happen”

[SailorRob]

A Wahs fan sent me this saying ….probably applies to the Oceania fandom as well -

“Inside every opportunity is a disappointment ready to happen”


We know, we get it 'Winner' you've lost a lot of money, you're bitter, you thought you were a genius but it was just the lowest rates in 5000 years. But your whinging is tiresome.

Post some analysis rather than pathetic weeping.

[Baa_Baa]

We know, we get it 'Winner' you've lost a lot of money, you're bitter, you thought you were a genius but it was just the lowest rates in 5000 years. But your whinging is tiresome.

Post some analysis rather than pathetic weeping.

Yes, like why is this the worst result in years? Maybe Snowie can chip in and help Winner explain this terrible result, worst in years.

[Baa_Baa]

My only guess as to why Winner and Snowie reckon this is the worst result in years, is like RYM, they reckon OCA have been fudging the results for years and are hiding a massive comprehensive loss behind obfuscated accounts, like RYM's comprehensive $246m loss, from a $419m profit the year prior (along with with RYM begging for mercy saying they'll fix all that for next time).

[SailorRob]

My only guess as to why Winner and Snowie reckon this is the worst result in years, is like RYM, they reckon OCA have been fudging the results for years and are hiding a massive comprehensive loss behind obfuscated accounts, like RYM's comprehensive $246m loss, from a $419m profit the year prior (along with with RYM begging for mercy saying they'll fix all that for next time).


I very much doubt they think that deeply Baa_Baa.

I think they look at the stock chart to form their views.

[ValueNZ]

SailorRob and Baa_Baa, what do you think about using Underlying NPAT (with depreciation of care suites subtracted) as a measure of Oceania's profit in a given period?

[Baa_Baa]

I very much doubt they think that deeply Baa_Baa.

I think they look at the stock chart to form their views.

Both Winner and Snowie have been around for decades and are very astute investors, and traders. I'll give them credit for that which is why I'm interested in why both of them think this OCA result is the worst in years. Neither of them have elaborated why?

[Baa_Baa]

SailorRob and Baa_Baa, what do you think about using Underlying NPAT (with depreciation of care suites subtracted) as a measure of Oceania's profit in a given period?

On every measure OCA report they are profitable, so Underlying NPAT is just one of them. Removing depreciation would imply also removing reference to assets fair value movements, like I think Snowie suggested.

Buffet said, I think, that depreciation is a real cost, or expense, so removing depreciation per se might not be a good thing, without removing reference to assets value movements as well.

Anyway, I don't see a case so far to restate the accounts, on every measure OCA are profitable, unlike RYM for example who have made whopping comprehensive loss.

I think you need to reference what statement you are concerned about, is it the income statement, the cashflow statement or perhaps the effect on the balance sheet as well?

[ValueNZ]

On every measure OCA report they are profitable, so Underlying NPAT is just one of them. Removing depreciation would imply also removing reference to assets fair value movements, like I think Snowie suggested.

Buffet said, I think, that depreciation is a real cost, or expense, so removing depreciation per se might not be a good thing, without removing reference to assets value movements as well.

Anyway, I don't see a case so far to restate the accounts, on every measure OCA are profitable, unlike RYM for example who have made whopping comprehensive loss.

I think you need to reference what statement you are concerned about, is it the income statement, the cashflow statement or perhaps the effect on the balance sheet as well?
We're on the same page with depreciation. When I said to subtract depreciation, that's because they add it back in (+) when calculating Underlying NPAT.

Anyway I only ask because IFRS profit includes changes in fair value of property, and don't include realised gains on sales and development margins. Underlying NPAT seems to be the better measure for that reason.

[SailorRob]

Both Winner and Snowie have been around for decades and are very astute investors, and traders. I'll give them credit for that which is why I'm interested in why both of them think this OCA result is the worst in years. Neither of them have elaborated why?

I've never seen either of them post anything remotely interesting but I'll take your word for it.

[Rawz]

I've never seen either of them post anything remotely interesting but I'll take your word for it.
Another ban coming your way. No loss for STr.

[SailorRob]

Another ban coming your way. No loss for STr.

What rule have I broken? Just the truth for me personally.

Perhaps you can help?

I am willing to change my mind if given evidence.

[Snow Leopard]

Both Winner and Snowie have been around for decades and are very astute investors, and traders. I'll give them credit for that which is why I'm interested in why both of them think this OCA result is the worst in years. Neither of them have elaborated why?

As I said previously there are many ways of dicing the accounts to get a better view of reality, all have their limitations and approximations but in comparison to recent years both 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit are significantly less.

The fact that both figures are off is not good.

[Cupsy]

As I said previously there are many ways of dicing the accounts to get a better view of reality, all have their limitations and approximations but in comparison to recent years both 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit are significantly less.

The fact that both figures are off is not good

Risk, any downturn in regional or national market conditions are listed as a property market risk.

[Daytr]

As I said previously there are many ways of dicing the accounts to get a better view of reality, all have their limitations and approximations but in comparison to recent years both 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit are significantly less.

The fact that both figures are off is not good.

Well summarized.
It's something I have been banging on about, probably far too much.

[Baa_Baa]

As I said previously there are many ways of dicing the accounts to get a better view of reality, all have their limitations and approximations but in comparison to recent years both 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit are significantly less.

The fact that both figures are off is not good.

Can you show us what you include in your calcs of 'true underlying' operational cashflow and 'true underlying' operational profit?

[ValueNZ]

Reading this thread in early 2021 is interesting. Euphoria, everyone getting rich, can't have enough, etc.

Compare that to todays thread. Everyone is skeptical, claims of unprofitability that fly in the face of the FS, too much debt.

The forward return from here will be way higher than in 2021, the time to be euphoric and load up is now.

[ValueNZ]

If you were holding in Feb 2021 @ $1.60 or close to it, and thought you would get a 10% CAGR from there in 10 years that'd be a share price of $4.15.

Had you bought two years later @ $0.90 and thought nothing significantly changed in your thesis, in 8 years the share price would be $4.15, well that'd be a CAGR of 21%.

If you bought your shareholding today @ $0.54, still believing nothing significantly changed in your thesis, in 6.5 years, well that'd be a CAGR of 37%.

I kid you not.

[SailorRob]

Reading this thread in early 2021 is interesting. Euphoria, everyone getting rich, can't have enough, etc.

Compare that to todays thread. Everyone is skeptical, claims of unprofitability that fly in the face of the FS, too much debt.

The forward return from here will be way higher than in 2021, the time to be euphoric and load up is now.

If possible can you repost euphoric posts from 2021 from today's biggest fear mongers?

[Rawz]

If you were holding in Feb 2021 @ $1.60 or close to it, and thought you would get a 10% CAGR from there in 10 years that'd be a share price of $4.15.

Had you bought two years later @ $0.90 and thought nothing significantly changed in your thesis, in 8 years the share price would be $4.15, well that'd be a CAGR of 21%.

If you bought your shareholding today @ $0.54, still believing nothing significantly changed in your thesis, in 6.5 years, well that'd be a CAGR of 37%.

I kid you not.

This is why we keep telling you it’s better to buy when the SP is low

[winner69]

Reading this thread in early 2021 is interesting. Euphoria, everyone getting rich, can't have enough, etc.

Compare that to todays thread. Everyone is skeptical, claims of unprofitability that fly in the face of the FS, too much debt.

The forward return from here will be way higher than in 2021, the time to be euphoric and load up is now.

I posted this bit of advice from an investing guru (can’t remember who) back in 2021 - “When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.”

[ValueNZ]

If possible can you repost euphoric posts from 2021 from today's biggest fear mongers?
These are just a few I've found, I'm sure there's others. Beagle holds the position that OCA is a bad investment at 55c on the other channel btw.



So back on topic

With a booming property market (even the RBNZ wants it to keep going up) and low interest rates and with Oceania's plans coming to fruition the future is bright

For believers in relativity theory OCA share price at least $2.40 next year

YOU CAN'T HAVE TOO MANY OCA


And then we will able say ‘we’ll never see $1.50 again’
OCA - the share you can’t have too many of (unless one has self imposed portfolio weighting limits)



I am comfortable one year hence from here at 18 times forward earnings = 18 x 10.3 cps = $1.85 updated target price early 2022. Over time as they prove their growth rate I expect that multiple will expand to about 20 times as they prove over a number of years they can grow eps at a CAGR of something like 15%. We could see eps of 20 cps in FY26 and the market pricing the company on a forward basis in late 2025 at 20 times that number = ~ $4.
As I said earlier, the real money will be made by those with the patience to hold this for at least 5 years which is what I intend to do.


If we see strong and reliable growth in OCA's eps in the years ahead, (one broker has FY26 estimated at 19 cps) we could see a PE in the mid 20's applied to that multiple and given the market is always forward looking that opens up the prospect of 25 times 19 cents ($4.75) being recognized as early as 2025.


Still trades at a discount to what I consider fair value but not cheap enough for me to buy more. It is currently my #3 holding on the NZX


Fundamentally I value it at $1.68 right here, right now, with a modest $1.71 for a year hence.

[winner69]

Deleted ..thought better of it

[ValueNZ]

This is why we keep telling you it’s better to buy when the SP is low
Low compared to what ;)

[Cupsy]

Reading this thread in early 2021 is interesting. Euphoria, everyone getting rich, can't have enough, etc.

Compare that to todays thread. Everyone is skeptical, claims of unprofitability that fly in the face of the FS, too much debt.

The forward return from here will be way higher than in 2021, the time to be euphoric and load up is now.

Hey value, if we put things in context from then as well, we've really had two things play out that are highlighted as risks.
1. Covid, no one being able to go to work during lockdowns must have seen development risks bear out, not to mention inflation costs on developments.
2. Property downturn post covid, another risk playing out, and the two pretty much back to back.

So I guess for a holder pre these events, you may well be pretty gutted, all be it that these problems arent necessarily due to a flawed business model or inherent fault in the business right? (given these risks were well recognised?).

[Cupsy]

Value me ol mate …..they were great posts weren’t they

Generated a lot of ‘euphoria’ …….and they did the trick …plan worked …got punters buying

Winner I really enjoy many of your posts, but after seeing some of those older ones, I'm thinking maybe your posts should come with some kind of statement of position, like "I used to really like this but now not so much" well I don't know what but maybe something.

[Rawz]

Winner I really enjoy many of your posts, but after seeing some of those older ones, I'm thinking maybe your posts should come with some kind of statement of position, like "I used to really like this but now not so much" well I don't know what but maybe something.

If you have followed this thread (well before your join date of Jan 2024) you will see both Beagle and W69 comments get darker and darker on OCA as each half year and full year update came in..
I guess the business never performed as they had hoped and they have posted about it on this thread. Bulls turned to bears. (in for a trade no doubt).

Even long-term investors (not traders) like Mav, you can see the tone in his posts changing to one of maybe frustration(?) as each reporting period comes and goes. And Mav hasnt commented here since the last update, when normally he always does....... thats saying something. Or maybe just doing it in private with his trusted circle. Away from the squawking seagulls lol

[allfromacell]

I see some an insider buying over at RYM. Suitor negotiations must be really heating up at OCA to not see anything similar.

[SailorRob]

That is absolutely legendary work ValueNZ. By reading posts from 2021 you are learning more than you could by reading many books on investment psychology.

Just beggers belief. I knew Snow Lepper was full of it but by god have you exposed them.

This evening I will share what I was saying about OCA in 2021.

[Rawz]

So the $917,647,000 Deferred management fee/refundable occupation license item on the balance sheet is essentially an interest free loan that cannot be called and is only paid back once the next lot of money has come through. It is a thing of immense beauty and the key to understanding the industry.

So it allows them to massively increase the amount of property they own and develop, at no cost or risk. Also worth noting here the terms and rate on their actual conventional debt which is outstanding, one bond is I think 2027 at 2.3% and the other 2028 at 3.3%. So massively negative in real terms.

So a conventional developer like you or I in simple terms, to build a million dollar house, we have to first get a million dollars, then build the house and then to build another one we either have to sell the first, or go to the bank and borrow against the first and maybe get 800k if we are lucky and subject to handing over the title to the first one to the bank and paying interest and introducing all kinds of risk.

OCA has their cake and eats it, they 'sell' the first house for more than a million while still owning it and don't pay any interest on the money they get and they don't have to pay it back (they keep a ton of it too) until it's been 'sold' again, and they do this until the cows come home and then do it some more. So they can never get into trouble with this type of liability, and it reminds me of float in the insurance industry which is fought over like crazy. Only this is way better as float is heavily regulated and you have to put up your own capital too.

Then as they develop more they get more of this free money and develop more... It's one hell of a business, and everyone is missing it as they think you're buying the net tangible assets but no, you are also buying the free billion dollars. I've never seen it discussed here but it's the real key to the business model.

Hey Sailor, this post was when you first introduced the float to the thread (good work). Back in Nov 2022. Think after 18 months we all agree how to value it. i.e. like its acceptable to most (not all) to exclude it from the NTA calc.

Market however still dont get it (clearly) as the SP is down 32% from the SP at time of post (80 cents) to today's 54 cents.

One reason for the drop could be something you also discussed back then. The fact that all the profits are stuck on the balance sheet. 18months later still stuck it seems. I.e. need sales sales sales to unlock the income from the balance sheet and transfer it to the PnL. People just not as patient as you maybe

(nb. in between all your attacks on other STr members you do end up posting some quality for those less learned.)

[winner69]

Updated this chart

They say one day they will be cashflow +ve ….line will start going up then. All funded by new capital and debt

OK …yes assets have grown over this period but ……

[SailorRob]

Hey Sailor, this post was when you first introduced the float to the thread (good work). Back in Nov 2022. Think after 18 months we all agree how to value it. i.e. like its acceptable to most (not all) to exclude it from the NTA calc.

Market however still dont get it (clearly) as the SP is down 32% from the SP at time of post (80 cents) to today's 54 cents.

One reason for the drop could be something you also discussed back then. The fact that all the profits are stuck on the balance sheet. 18months later still stuck it seems. I.e. need sales sales sales to unlock the income from the balance sheet and transfer it to the PnL. People just not as patient as you maybe

(nb. in between all your attacks on other STr members you do end up posting some quality for those less learned.)

Agreed Rawz, thanks.

[ValueNZ]

deleted....

[ValueNZ]

Hey value, if we put things in context from then as well, we've really had two things play out that are highlighted as risks.
1. Covid, no one being able to go to work during lockdowns must have seen development risks bear out, not to mention inflation costs on developments.
2. Property downturn post covid, another risk playing out, and the two pretty much back to back.

So I guess for a holder pre these events, you may well be pretty gutted, all be it that these problems arent necessarily due to a flawed business model or inherent fault in the business right? (given these risks were well recognised?).
Yes and consider how the business has grown despite these events.

[winner69]

Deleted…….

[Bjauck]

Winner I really enjoy many of your posts, but after seeing some of those older ones, I'm thinking maybe your posts should come with some kind of statement of position, like "I used to really like this but now not so much" well I don't know what but maybe something.
I think W69 uses a bit of an irony in some of his posts. Every post on this forum comes with the implicit disclaimer that you should do your own research, or pay a professional for advice.

[SailorRob]

I think W69 uses a bit of an irony in some of his posts. Every post on this forum comes with the implicit disclaimer that you should do your own research, or pay a professional for advice.

Yep but then you can claim every disaster post as oh I was kidding

[Bjauck]

Yep but then you can claim every disaster post as oh I was kidding Don’t rely on any posts to make any investment decisions. They are just chit-chat.

[winner69]

Another updated chart …Underlying NPAT over the years

Hardly an inspiring story…the result of selling heaps more and making about the same year after year

[Cupsy]

I think W69 uses a bit of an irony in some of his posts. Every post on this forum comes with the implicit disclaimer that you should do your own research, or pay a professional for advice.

I like the irony and wahs posts, but I thought it would be handy to understand how his views may have changed over time (i feel like knowing gives a bit more context to some of his posts), but then maybe that should be on the ppl new to the forum to read the thread from the start (daunting task?).
And yes, what you say about research and advice is a given imo.

[Cupsy]

Another updated chart …Underlying NPAT over the years

Hardly an inspiring story…the result of selling heaps more and making about the same year after year

To be fair though, it does depend on the story as viewed by the individual as to how inspiring it is, and there is an element of beauty being in the eye of the beholder i think. The prospectus talks about them targeting a medium term build rate, presumably to soak up demand from declining not-for-profit operators (and any growth in demand), with a demand period from 2016 to 2026 of estimated annual required extra beds.
So one could look at growing assets over this time frame as a measure of how inspiring the story is. Also one can look at price to personal view on intrinsic value, others who have been holders for a longer period and at higher prices will have there own point of view also. And there is probably a large number of other views with regard to how someone looks at it as to how inspiring it is or isn't.

[ThaiJohn]

I've bailed. Had enough.

[kiora]

I've bailed. Had enough.

I admire some peoples patience ( with NTL as well?)

Patience can be the antithesis of returns when investing.

[SailorRob]

I've bailed. Had enough.


Hi ThaiJohn, what have you bailed to? Can you give us a brief outline of the asset you have bailed to and its expected future returns to you, I may follow you if you have found something better.

[ValueNZ]

I've bailed. Had enough.
Had enough? Of what, bliss? Buying dollars for a lower and lower amount?

You've turned what is a massive advantage (market quoted prices), into a massive disadvantage.

Of course unless you've found something better like SailorRob said, but I doubt it.

[bull....]

I've bailed. Had enough.

sometimes it is good to bail and look at better prospects. As they say if you overpay for future cashflows today , future returns will be lower.

[RTM]

I've bailed. Had enough.

May he/she means from ShareTrader ?

[bull....]

May he/she means from ShareTrader ?

oh bailed because of winners comments ?
they realized they were sucked in by the ramping off beagle and co on OCA

[Daytr]

Hi ThaiJohn, what have you bailed to? Can you give us a brief outline of the asset you have bailed to and its expected future returns to you, I may follow you if you have found something better.


Had enough? Of what, bliss? Buying dollars for a lower and lower amount?

You've turned what is a massive advantage (market quoted prices), into a massive disadvantage.

Of course unless you've found something better like SailorRob said, but I doubt it.

How about just try respecting their decision and leave them be.
No doubt ThaiJohn has cemented a loss, could be significant, at least in percentage terms & is hard enough to stomach without you two spruikers chipping in.

People don't have to reinvest their money anywhere. Sometimes they just want to stop bleeding cash & stop worrying about losing more. Either way it's their business.

We should encourage participation on this site but with SailorBoy jumping down poster's throats more often than not, they probably think why bother.

[Rawz]

How about just try respecting their decision and leave them be.
No doubt ThaiJohn has cemented a loss, could be significant, at least in percentage terms & is hard enough to stomach without you two spruikers chipping in.

People don't have to reinvest their money anywhere. Sometimes they just want to stop bleeding cash & stop worrying about losing more. Either way it's their business.

We should encourage participation on this site but with SailorBoy jumping down poster's throats more often than not, they probably think why bother.

Sailors reply was actually good and you can see where he was going with it.

Values reply was his dreamland stuff of ‘it’s good when the price goes down’. Not helpful

[SailorRob]

How about just try respecting their decision and leave them be.
No doubt ThaiJohn has cemented a loss, could be significant, at least in percentage terms & is hard enough to stomach without you two spruikers chipping in.

People don't have to reinvest their money anywhere. Sometimes they just want to stop bleeding cash & stop worrying about losing more. Either way it's their business.

We should encourage participation on this site but with SailorBoy jumping down poster's throats more often than not, they probably think why bother.

Unless they sell and spend, then they by definition must reinvest somewhere.

My question was, where, as if anyone knows something better I need to know.

Happy to keep educating you.

[Daytr]

Sailors reply was actually good and you can see where he was going with it.

Values reply was his dreamland stuff of ‘it’s good when the price goes down’. Not helpful

No one knows what ThaiJohn is feeling right now. That is a good reason to leave it be.

Just because a spruiker wants to score points is not a good reason.
Whatever SailorBoy comes up with is pure speculation anyway.

[Daytr]

Unless they sell and spend, then they by definition must reinvest somewhere.

My question was, where, as if anyone knows something better I need to know.

Happy to keep educating you.

Your insincerity is only surpassed by your lack of empathy.

[kiwical]

Unless they sell and spend, then they by definition must reinvest somewhere.

My question was, where, as if anyone knows something better I need to know.

Happy to keep educating you. Well over the past year OCA has declined 31.5% in SP. Nearly anywhere could be better than that over the same period. Even the weakest bank term deposit or savings account should yield 5% Wouldn't that be better?

[SailorRob]

Well over the past year OCA has declined 31.5% in SP. Nearly anywhere could be better than that over the same period. Even the weakest bank term deposit or savings account should yield 5% Wouldn't that be better?

Of course, but he/they sold now, not a year ago.

[SailorRob]

No one knows what ThaiJohn is feeling right now. That is a good reason to leave it be.

Just because a spruiker wants to score points is not a good reason.
Whatever SailorBoy comes up with is pure speculation anyway.

Ahh I see he's a gold mine mate of yours. Explains a lot!

I wonder what will be the better investment, OCA or NTL 🤣🤣

[Rawz]

Ahh I see he's a gold mine mate of yours. Explains a lot!

I wonder what will be the better investment, OCA or NTL 藍藍

Sailor, any progress on your valuation of OCA?

[ValueNZ]

OCA hit 53c this morning. Punters are still capitulating.

[SailorRob]

Sailor, any progress on your valuation of OCA?

I thought I provided it? At least the methodology?

[Sideshow Bob]

OCA hit 53c this morning. Punters are still capitulating.

231 shares through at $0.53.

[Daytr]

Ahh I see he's a gold mine mate of yours. Explains a lot!

I wonder what will be the better investment, OCA or NTL 🤣🤣

As I've been one of the biggest critics of NTL for around 10 years, perhaps they are both rubbish....

[davflaws]

Happy to keep educating you.

Your analyses are insightful and valuable. Your posts and contribution to the discussion would be even more so if you could drop the provocation.

The discussion actually works better when we all make an effort to treat each other well. I yield to the temptation to be snarky far too often, and usually feel slightly ashamed of myself afterwards, 'cos it doesn't inform or enlighten, and discourages others from participating.

[ValueNZ]

231 shares through at $0.53.
I don't normally pay attention to volume :p

[Rawz]

I thought I provided it? At least the methodology?

Yeah just the methodology. Thought you were going to run the exercise and come up with a value?

[ThaiJohn]

Hi ThaiJohn, what have you bailed to? Can you give us a brief outline of the asset you have bailed to and its expected future returns to you, I may follow you if you have found something better.

Cold beer and hookers.

[SailorRob]

Cold beer and hookers.

I guess you're not kidding.

I hear your goal was to own a million shares in a company, and you achieved it with NTL. Only to get them reduced to 100k shares. At least you achieved your goal.

[Rawz]

Cold beer and hookers.

Haha good stuff. More pleasure than holding OCA thats for sure

[ThaiJohn]

Haha good stuff. More pleasure than holding OCA thats for sure

I mean, do you know how hot it gets over here? Bugga water.

[ValueNZ]

I mean, do you know how hot it gets over here? Bugga water.
Just brew some of your own beer, and pocket the shares ;)

Good money saver.

[Daytr]

Cold beer and hookers.

And squandered the rest no doubt... :)

[Bikeguy]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1055429

“We should encourage participation on this site “

I really like the intent you express in your post,

I am pretty new to shares but feel I gain a-lot from reading the views and information provided by the more experienced and very financially astute posters,

It is sometimes sad to see people who are clearly very intelligent and skilled conducting themselves in ways that remove from the respect they earn with their intelligent and generous posts about various companies.

[bull....]

new lows :scared: :scared: results not well received by market

[ThaiJohn]

new lows :scared: :scared: results not well received by market

I'm getting a better return with the hookers and beer.

[Balance]

I'm getting a better return with the hookers and beer.

Old saying … ‘man who fishes in foreign ponds catches crabs!’ :scared:

[bull....]

I'm getting a better return with the hookers and beer.

lol , those lunch menu's there are good fun

[mistaTea]

lol , those lunch menu's there are good fun

Just bull**** those who say you can't enjoy a decent creampie for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

[Ggcc]

How low can this BLO++Y share go??? I am not a shareholder but I keep seeing it go lower. Sad for holders.

[SailorRob]

How low can this BLO++Y share go??? I am not a shareholder but I keep seeing it go lower. Sad for holders.

Not sad at all, it's bloody great.

[Balance]

How low can this BLO++Y share go??? I am not a shareholder but I keep seeing it go lower. Sad for holders.

Holders have not figured out yet that OCA has a long long road ahead to repair its balance sheet and to become operationally profitable.

[RTM]

Not sad at all, it's bloody great.

How low did it go in the COVID drop ?

[Baa_Baa]

Holders have not figured out yet that OCA has a long long road ahead to repair its balance sheet and to become operationally profitable.

What would you suggest a "holder" does, under the circumstances. Not advice, just a suggestion. Should they book a modest to enormous loss (as people assume all holders have) and hopeful of a buy-back even lower than 0.53? Or maybe book the loss and move on, to what? Or hold and suffer the ignominy of further losses, but miss any turn around? Or something else?

[Baa_Baa]

How low did it go in the COVID drop ?

$0.38 was the lowest price. It recovered 130% to $0.88 in 17 days. Then carried on for another 82% to $1.60 in the next 302 days

[Ggcc]

Not sad at all, it's bloody great.
I agree if you are holding longterm there will be light at the end of the tunnel eventually. I held and sold most for $1.50 and the rest between $1.04-$1.25. I redistributed that into shares (of which most have gone up) and an actual house. My house has not dropped 60% in value, even from the peak. I like my shares going up.

I got "lucky" with Task and my value doubled overnight. I must admit if you feel good about an investment not to let it go and I feel this is the instinct you have with OCA.

[Bjauck]

I'm getting a better return with the hookers and beer.
Dane Coles is a top bloke I believe.

[Meister]

Both of the recent OCA polls on sentiment from forum posters (good idea by the way given how chaotic this thread is) were very positive overall, which is curious as I don't really get a very positive impression from this thread overall. We have a couple of exuberant posters counterbalanced by some significant detractors it seems, but not many middle of the road types. Quietly confident perhaps? Stage shy? Don't want to get personally attacked for posting? Or just not much to say, business as usual, carry on and check back in a few years?

For the detractors I wonder at what price it becomes viable, or indeed if there is no price worth paying as there is no confidence in OCA's long term viability? I haven't heard anyone go quiet that far yet?

For the exuberant among us I would ask what it would take to shake your faith but I think that has actually been covered before and the answer was more or less nothing, take it down to $0 :eek2:

[Cupsy]

Both of the recent OCA polls on sentiment from forum posters (good idea by the way given how chaotic this thread is) were very positive overall, which is curious as I don't really get a very positive impression from this thread overall. We have a couple of exuberant posters counterbalanced by some significant detractors it seems, but not many middle of the road types. Quietly confident perhaps? Stage shy? Don't want to get personally attacked for posting? Or just not much to say, business as usual, carry on and check back in a few years?

For the detractors I wonder at what price it becomes viable, or indeed if there is no price worth paying as there is no confidence in OCA's long term viability? I haven't heard anyone go quiet that far yet?

For the exuberant among us I would ask what it would take to shake your faith but I think that has actually been covered before and the answer was more or less nothing, take it down to $0 :eek2:

To be fair, posting one way or another changes nothing, actions speak louder than words.

[Rawz]

Holders have not figured out yet that OCA has a long long road ahead to repair its balance sheet and to become operationally profitable.

Yes I agree, nothing is going to change until interest rates drop and kicks off the property cycle again. The only way rates are going to drop is a bit more pain in the economy. That means business doing big layoffs or liquidations, higher unemployment rates and then increased mortgagee sales.

I like to invest in businesses in a good news up cycle which basically means the company announcements are positive. Examples are expansion, market share gains, profit upgrades etc. the only two NZX stocks I hold is 2CC and TWR, these tick all the boxes. Got ridiculed for holding these but I just laugh lol as they are performing extremely well.

Lastly like you say OCA balance sheet is not strong and this is hurting the SP. again I got mocked by the usual two when I said I don’t invest in companies nearing 40% leverage but this situation (weak economy) is exactly why. Just too risky for the SP. other reason is with a weak balance sheet the dividend always gets cut in a weak economy. See if OCA had a strong balance sheet they wouldn’t have to temporarily cut the div, so at least holders could ride through this with an income coming in.

[RTM]

$0.38 was the lowest price. It recovered 130% to $0.88 in 17 days. Then carried on for another 82% to $1.60 in the next 302 days

Ta, I did buy more on the way up, but missed the low by a bit.

[ValueNZ]

How low can this BLO++Y share go??? I am not a shareholder but I keep seeing it go lower. Sad for holders.
I'm hoping it hits all time lows and some.

In fact if anyone wants to straight up donate their shares to me I'm good with that too.

[SailorRob]

Yes I agree, nothing is going to change until interest rates drop and kicks off the property cycle again. The only way rates are going to drop is a bit more pain in the economy. That means business doing big layoffs or liquidations, higher unemployment rates and then increased mortgagee sales.

I like to invest in businesses in a good news up cycle which basically means the company announcements are positive. Examples are expansion, market share gains, profit upgrades etc. the only two NZX stocks I hold is 2CC and TWR, these tick all the boxes. Got ridiculed for holding these but I just laugh lol as they are performing extremely well.

Lastly like you say OCA balance sheet is not strong and this is hurting the SP. again I got mocked by the usual two when I said I don’t invest in companies nearing 40% leverage but this situation (weak economy) is exactly why. Just too risky for the SP. other reason is with a weak balance sheet the dividend always gets cut in a weak economy. See if OCA had a strong balance sheet they wouldn’t have to temporarily cut the div, so at least holders could ride through this with an income coming in.


ValueNZ I'll let you handle this one, I can't be bothered but you could have a field day.

[SailorRob]

Both of the recent OCA polls on sentiment from forum posters (good idea by the way given how chaotic this thread is) were very positive overall, which is curious as I don't really get a very positive impression from this thread overall. We have a couple of exuberant posters counterbalanced by some significant detractors it seems, but not many middle of the road types. Quietly confident perhaps? Stage shy? Don't want to get personally attacked for posting? Or just not much to say, business as usual, carry on and check back in a few years?

For the detractors I wonder at what price it becomes viable, or indeed if there is no price worth paying as there is no confidence in OCA's long term viability? I haven't heard anyone go quiet that far yet?

For the exuberant among us I would ask what it would take to shake your faith but I think that has actually been covered before and the answer was more or less nothing, take it down to $0 :eek2:


My faith would be shaken by a higher share price.

[Rawz]

The OCA thread gets a lot of attention, its a STr favourite. Reading here you could think the SP drop is end of the world stuff. But holders need to remember we are in a bear market and there are a heap of other well-known names doing WORSE for holders than OCA over the last 12 months:

OCA down 33%
HGH down 37%
WHS down 37%
FBU down 39%
RYM down 40%
THL down 49%
RBD down 50%
DGL down 52%
CVT down 53%
MHJ down 56%
PGW down 62%
SML down 75%

OCA actually doing pretty good!



TWR up 36%
2CC up 170%

[Rawz]

ValueNZ I'll let you handle this one, I can't be bothered but you could have a field day.

ValueNZ is not your pet. You cant just order him around. Also let other people give him advice. Its weird when you post stuff like "he doesnt need advice from you", like you are the only one to teach him. Its like you are grooming him or something.

ValueNZ, if Sailor ever invites you onto his boat for a 'private lesson' RUN, RUN AWAY.........

[SailorRob]

I agree if you are holding longterm there will be light at the end of the tunnel eventually. I held and sold most for $1.50 and the rest between $1.04-$1.25. I redistributed that into shares (of which most have gone up) and an actual house. My house has not dropped 60% in value, even from the peak. I like my shares going up.

I got "lucky" with Task and my value doubled overnight. I must admit if you feel good about an investment not to let it go and I feel this is the instinct you have with OCA.


OCA has not dropped 60% in value, only in price.

Your house was never worth in value anything like what you paid or what you could sell it for now, just lucky the price is. The value of it is far far lower.

Shares going up means lower returns, unless you can recycle into other cheaper shares or you are in liquidate and spend mode it isn't helpful.

The biggest problem in my life has been Berkshire (by far my biggest holding) going up to $400.

If My Berkshire shares had not gone up from $250 then my life would be easy, simple and I would be far more wealthy in the long run.

[SailorRob]

ValueNZ is not your pet. You cant just order him around. Also let other people give him advice. Its weird when you post stuff like "he doesnt need advice from you", like you are the only one to teach him. Its like you are grooming him or something.

ValueNZ, if Sailor ever invites you onto his boat for a 'private lesson' RUN, RUN AWAY.........


Yes I should have said what I meant 'advice from you will be massively damaging to him and you should refrain from giving it'

I will get around to providing you with the valuation, the market can give you the price.

[Balance]

ValueNZ is not your pet. You cant just order him around. Also let other people give him advice. Its weird when you post stuff like "he doesnt need advice from you", like you are the only one to teach him. Its like you are grooming him or something.

ValueNZ, if Sailor ever invites you onto his boat for a 'private lesson' RUN, RUN AWAY.........

Haha … good one! :t_up:

SailorRob to ValueNZ - ‘do you know what a float is?’

ValueNZ - ‘when OCA’s sp is sinking?’

SailorRob - ‘you got it! Come aboard my floating Sampan!’ :eek2:

[Rawz]

Yes I should have said what I meant 'advice from you will be massively damaging to him and you should refrain from giving it'
well you're the one that got him to put 70% of his portfolio into OCA at 80 cents. That was not good advice.

[Toddy]

The OCA thread gets a lot of attention, its a STr favourite. Reading here you could think the SP drop is end of the world stuff. But holders need to remember we are in a bear market and there are a heap of other well-known names doing WORSE for holders than OCA over the last 12 months:

OCA down 33%
HGH down 37%
WHS down 37%
FBU down 39%
RYM down 40%
THL down 49%
RBD down 50%
DGL down 52%
CVT down 53%
MHJ down 56%
PGW down 62%
SML down 75%

OCA actually doing pretty good!



TWR up 36%
2CC up 170%

Brilliant post.
Who would ride any of these stocks down so low. Stop losses would have kicked in some time ago.

Just think, if you are off by half (50%), then no problems. When interest rate drop over the next couple of years then your stock prices will double(100%). Right?. Back to square one.

[Baa_Baa]

Shares going up means lower returns, unless you can recycle into other cheaper shares or you are in liquidate and spend mode it isn't helpful.

The biggest problem in my life has been Berkshire (by far my biggest holding) going up to $400.

If My Berkshire shares had not gone up from $250 then my life would be easy, simple and I would be far more wealthy in the long run.

I think you've reached the mindfark level that few are going to comprehend or understand.

Value investing is an anathema to a share trader who is chasing the latest capital gain. The two will never agree. That said, we are in a market that is now skewed towards value investing, albeit very few seem to understand that, as their trading options continue to be reduced.

[Toddy]

I'd stick to the farming.

The only down stock I have owned in the last 2 years is Skl. I bailed at 13 percent loss. No biggie.

[ValueNZ]

ValueNZ is not your pet. You cant just order him around. Also let other people give him advice. Its weird when you post stuff like "he doesnt need advice from you", like you are the only one to teach him. Its like you are grooming him or something.

ValueNZ, if Sailor ever invites you onto his boat for a 'private lesson' RUN, RUN AWAY.........
What a disgusting post.

Rawz, how much of a loss did you realise on OCA?

[mike2020]

OCA has not dropped 60% in value, only in price.



Your house was never worth in value anything like what you paid or what you could sell it for now, just lucky the price is. The value of it is far far lower.

Shares going up means lower returns, unless you can recycle into other cheaper shares or you are in liquidate and spend mode it isn't helpful.

The biggest problem in my life has been Berkshire (by far my biggest holding) going up to $400.

If My Berkshire shares had not gone up from $250 then my life would be easy, simple and I would be far more wealthy in the long run.

Apparently $1000 invested in IFT 30 years ago left untouched would be $171000 today. I was told there was an initial investor at a recent meeting put 10k in at the ipo. I remember you could buy a house in some places for 10k then and it won't be worth 1.71 ml now. Possibly a third of that. I put 12k back then into a commercial property syndicate and the projected dividend was 14%. Much less and lost 20% capital over 5 years. Would have been 2ml plus with IFT.

Pretty sure if you look past today OCA is going to be a huge win for the brave. But the average time frame of investment here is between 2 days and a year or two. Use of capital etc etc. I think all data points to holding over trading long term.

[ValueNZ]

well you're the one that got him to put 70% of his portfolio into OCA at 80 cents. That was not good advice.
I had close to 100% of my NW in OCA stock prior to joining this forum.

[ValueNZ]

Well that’s nice to read, Mav. I bought some more yesterday to add to my ever growing pile. Thought $1.52 was reasonable buying
Sheesh OCA taking a hammering. I've been buying the dip as they say you should do.. however the dip keeps dipping!

I see it back at $1.60 soon

I bought the dip. But then it kept dipping. Now 10% of my portfolio and yes a lot of uncertainty.

But only weak hands would sell now..

Only weak hands would sell now eh Rawz?

More than willing to own at $1.60 in 2021, but not at 52c. Rawz, please do not try to give me any further advice. Your idiocy will make me want to slam my head against the wall.

Cheers.

[Balance]

What would you suggest a "holder" does, under the circumstances. Not advice, just a suggestion. Should they book a modest to enormous loss (as people assume all holders have) and hopeful of a buy-back even lower than 0.53? Or maybe book the loss and move on, to what? Or hold and suffer the ignominy of further losses, but miss any turn around? Or something else?

Presumably anyone putting money into any stock does so with specific views in mind of what are the value drivers of the stock - ie. macro and micro factors.

As the macro and micro factors unfold, the market will respond (properly or improperly) accordingly.

To me, one must then assess the developments against one’s own value drivers.

Then, act appropriately - be it but, sell or hold.

The market can be wrong - that’s a fact and some of the best gains I have ever made had been when the market was wrong - eg. Serko at 29c. Most of the times, the market is right - eg. Hanging onto ATM and only bailing out when 50% of the gains had been pared back.

The key is to assess the stock continuously against one’s value drivers.

So in the case of OCA, I bailed out the stock I bought during the 30m+ index selldown when the results announced was much much worse than expected. My value driver was a good result or one in line with market expectations.

Look back at how OCA has disappointed from one result to another, year after year and how the macro environment has worsen but holders kept holding.

Is it too late to bail out?

Really it is up to each holder to judge against their value drivers. If they think that their value drivers are intact, by all means hold!

[Rawz]

Only weak hands would sell now eh Rawz?

More than willing to own at $1.60 in 2021, but not at 52c. Rawz, please do not try to give me any further advice. Your idiocy will make me want to slam my head against the wall.

Cheers.

There is not a lot of point looking back at my old posts as I did not really understand investing back then.

All I can say is I made my fair share of mistakes and had my fair share of wins.

Started in 2020 and only feel like I have found a strategy that works for me in these last 12 months.

No need for you to slam your head against a wall pal.

[Toddy]

Is it too late to bail. If I held them now I would just keep them in the bottom drawer and bank the experience. There is limited downside.
OCA will fly at some stage. Just like during the GFC, people still got older. Then as soon as the confidence returned to the property market people moved. Demand exceeded supply.

This time will be no different. The only time you trip yourself up is if you need to liquidate your share investment.

[Rawz]

How do you feel about Apple Computers (little company in the US you may not have heard of) super scary leverage %?

Write us an essay about it.

They have utilized their balance sheet to invest, buyback huge amounts of stock and pay dividends. Good stuff.

And essentially that is a one off as eventually the bankers/bond holders say no more.

This is what I’m saying with OCA. Will the bankers give them another $600m to build a village (asset)? No. So once you’ve used up that leverage ratio it’s no more. So you can’t grow your assets as quick as you historically did.

[blackcap]

ValueNZ, super valuable time spent scrolling through the 2021 OCA thread, that alone will probably do more for you than your first year at uni, though it wont teach you your white privilege you colonising $astard.

Are you for real?

[winner69]

Hey rawz …wonder if we will need to trawl through some of the current posts in 2028 when OCA share price is 50 cents ……we would be reminded that few kept on telling us that OCA is a great ‘bet’..like one of those can’t lose/fail investments


we should Reply with Quote some of their posts in case they get deleted lol

[Rawz]

Hey rawz …wonder if we will need to trawl through some of the current posts in 2028 when OCA share price is 50 cents ……we would be reminded that few kept on telling us that OCA is a great ‘bet’..like one of those can’t lose/fail investments


we should Reply with Quote some of their posts in case they get deleted lol

We don't need to stoop to those levels..

You know when you are getting overly aggressive posts by holders of a stock that its a warning sign. Didnt Phaedrus have a good post on that way back?

[Rawz]

The last sentence I agree with.

Glad you understand the importance relative to OCA. Forget about Apple.

Now this is one of the most important paragraphs you will ever read in your life... You 'only feel like I have found a strategy that works for me in these last 12 months'. Now you feel like this because some stocks you have bought have gone way up in price.... This is not a reason for you to feel like your 'strategy' is working for you. You'd need to have success against the market for a full couple of cycles to know that, at least 15 years. So without that time having passed the only other way you can know is that you have the correct process irrespective of the outcome.

My strategy is time tested. Its just value investing with a big focus on margin of safety. Nothing new about it.

[ValueNZ]

My strategy is time tested. Its just value investing with a big focus on margin of safety. Nothing new about it.
Yesterday you said this.

I like to invest in businesses in a good news up cycle which basically means the company announcements are positive. Examples are expansion, market share gains, profit upgrades etc.
Now imagine having a conversation with Benjamin Graham, Buffett, Li Lu, or any other successful value investor, and telling them you invest in businesses in a "good news up cycle".

Can you imagine the look on their faces... I can.

[bull....]

Yesterday you said this.

Now imagine having a conversation with Benjamin Graham, Buffett, Li Lu, or any other successful value investor, and telling them you invest in businesses in a "good news up cycle".

Can you imagine the look on their faces... I can.

the difference is rawz wants stock gains , you dont

[ValueNZ]

Are you for real?
Can confirm. I have learnt nothing at university this whole year, so yes having a scroll through the thread in 2021 has probably taught me more.

[Rawz]

Yesterday you said this.

Now imagine having a conversation with Benjamin Graham, Buffett, Li Lu, or any other successful value investor, and telling them you invest in businesses in a "good news up cycle".

Can you imagine the look on their faces... I can.

You won’t understand the good news up cycle bit until you finish uni and work in a few different corporates.

When a company wins it leads to more winning. Bigger bonuses for the sales teams, big team lunches out for the operations teams, more resources for the IT dept etc. the best employees stay and the best at the competition look to jump ship. When you see a company announcing profit upgrades, market share wins etc it’s because they are winning internally and the culture is minted.

Compare to a company constantly announcing bad news.. you know the sales team are missing their bonus, the operations team are getting dominos for lunch and IT dept facing budget cuts. The best employees are jumping ship. The culture is poor. It is very difficult and takes time to reverse this type of company state.

[Daytr]

Anyone Bearish in 2021 got roasted

Anyone Bullish now gets roasted.

Go figure.

You aren't bullish, you & your first mate are in dream land.
Nothing wrong with constructing a bullish argument, but it needs to be based on reality not all the double counting, down is up BS.

I for one, as stated think OCA currently under valued as I think is RYM but neither are without risk.

[Balance]

Since we are revisiting old posts, here's one for the ages - posted on 24 Nov 2022 at the peak of the residential property market :


No question about demand.

Retirees are only going to move into retirement villages if they can afford to.

As property prices are dropping, it will be harder and harder for the retirees to get a good price for their existing homes to buy into retirement villages.

Why RV share prices are so sensitive to the property cycle - so good on the way up and now, nasty on the way down.

NZ is but in the first year of a potential 5 year down cycle.

No big hurry to ride the cycle down.

Amen.

[Balance]

How can it be at peak AND dropping?

You are right - peak was Nov 2021.

[Balance]

Can confirm. I have learnt nothing at university this whole year, so yes having a scroll through the thread in 2021 has probably taught me more.

I learnt plenty from university but never directly from the lectures and textbooks - the learnings come when I apply in real life what I was taught.

And even then, I always know that there are others much much learned and smarter than me to learn from.

[blackcap]

Bloody hell, down to 52 cents today. Something is definitely not right here...

[Daytr]

Big difference bruv if share price goes from 52c to 50c and you get some dividends over 5 years.

Vs from 1.60 to 52c

Do the math bro.

Could be 50c in 2028 yes but won't look at dumb as 160 to 52

How about no dividend and the price keeps sliding.
Do the math Bruv.

[blackcap]

How about no dividend and the price keeps sliding.
Do the math Bruv.

I'm with you on this one Daytr. Starting to look at OCA at these prices, RYM the same but think there is enough time to wait for a better entry point/ lower risk entry time.

[Rawz]

1mill shares traded at 53 cents. Is that you Sailor? (I see you said you moved funds from your US holdings)

[Balance]

deleted deleted

[bottomfeeder]

Cancellation of dividend is the cause of the fall in SP. Most investors feel that it will be six months at least before an interim dividend will be considered and nothing much will boost the SP until then.

At these prices, takeover should not be excluded. Its a real anomaly. Relatively high NTA backing gives OCA a long term edge. OCA really needs to hustle on the divestment of the surplus properties and stop all further development until better times.

[Balance]

Here is what you just deleted;

'Fat chance.

The loud mouth BS artist will wait until OCA has stopped dropping (could be 30c or whatever then) and when the sp finally pulls out of its dive, proclaim to all that he has cornered the market for OCA shares at said level.

Always after the fact.

Talk the big talk but observe how he has behaved since 2022 - all big talk with a big mouth about floats and how wonderful the ever lower sp is but no action'.

Thanks for that.

I posted it but decided to be considerate this morning but since you are happy to repost it, let it stand! :t_up:

I also added to the post which you did not include :

“The float is a sinker.” Or is it a stinker? :t_up:

[Daytr]

That wasn't what Whinger posted.

I think you should be concerned with your own posts.
They are becoming more desperate & erratic every day.

Honestly you & your first mate going through 2021 posts to score points! Jeepers.
Of course Sailorboy has never made a bad call or investment... 🙄

[Entrep]

SR you got one OCA trade right and have been consistently wrong about OCA for many years since. Get some more runs of the board then maybe people would be more inclined to agree with you.

[ValueNZ]

I think you should be concerned with your own posts.
They are becoming more desperate & erratic every day.

Honestly you & your first mate going through 2021 posts to score points! Jeepers.
Of course Sailorboy has never made a bad call or investment... 
It's no coincidence that these bulls that held OCA at $1.60 are now bearish at 52c. They are unable to value or think for themselves, so they let the market do it for them. Except this is exactly the opposite of how you need to approach investing...

[Entrep]

I'm not here to trade or get runs on the board... I'm here to own beyond 2040...

You don't think it's a bit ridiculous to try and call out people who point out the languishing share price and poor performance, but then say your investment horizon is 15 years away!?

On that basis you could claim anything (bull or bear) about any stock! "Hey guys, you just don't get it, yes the share is down 90% but wait until 2040!" It's absurd.

What's more making several posts per day about it. Say 5 x 365 x 15. You've got just shy of 30K more forum posts to go until your thesis comes provable. Again, absurd.

[ValueNZ]

You don't think it's a bit ridiculous to try and call out people who point out the languishing share price and poor performance, but then say your investment horizon is 15 years away!?

On that basis you could claim anything (bull or bear) about any stock! "Hey guys, you just don't get it, yes the share is down 90% but wait until 2040!" It's absurd.

What's more making several posts per day about it. Say 5 x 365 x 15. You've got just shy of 30K more forum posts to go until your thesis comes provable. Again, absurd.
Chances are both Rob and I will be out of OCA by 2040. But you need to approach investing with this longterm mindset...

All the worlds best investors think at least 10 years out.

[Balance]

You don't think it's a bit ridiculous to try and call out people who point out the languishing share price and poor performance, but then say your investment horizon is 15 years away!?

On that basis you could claim anything (bull or bear) about any stock! "Hey guys, you just don't get it, yes the share is down 90% but wait until 2040!" It's absurd.

What's more making several posts per day about it. Say 5 x 365 x 15. You've got just shy of 30K more forum posts to go until your thesis comes provable. Again, absurd.

Try taking up a bet with SR on his assertion about where OCA's sp will be in 2040 as I have.

Watch him try every excuse in the book to get out of the bet. And then, his pathetic attempts at insults. That's how much conviction he has!

The floater is a stinker.

[Entrep]

Chances are both Rob and I will be out of OCA by 2040. But you need to approach investing with this longterm mindset...

All the worlds best investors think at least 10 years out.

That's fine. My point is more you can't argue OCA doesn't look like crap at the moment, and has for a while.

[Daytr]

It's no coincidence that these bulls that held OCA at $1.60 are now bearish at 52c. They are unable to value or think for themselves, so they let the market do it for them. Except this is exactly the opposite of how you need to approach investing...

Who said they are bears?
Pointing out the current reality which you ignore & they have been right about, doesn't mean they are bearish.

Both you & SailorBoy constantly overreact & make bad assumptions.
Hardly the traits of a skilled investor.

[Cupsy]

Cancellation of dividend is the cause of the fall in SP. Most investors feel that it will be six months at least before an interim dividend will be considered and nothing much will boost the SP until then.

At these prices, takeover should not be excluded. Its a real anomaly. Relatively high NTA backing gives OCA a long term edge. OCA really needs to hustle on the divestment of the surplus properties and stop all further development until better times.

I'd prefer they keep the developments going, but maybe reduce debt funding and fund with a higher proportion of ora. (This might reduce further developments). But i want them to be continuing to get as many ora generating assets as possible behind them as time progresses (keep the divi and plow it into more ora generating assets please).

[Rawz]

Chances are both Rob and I will be out of OCA by 2040. But you need to approach investing with this longterm mindset...

All the world’s best investors think at least 10 years out.

Buffetts avg holding period for a stock is less than 2 years. He’s in for gains then out

[Cupsy]

Who said they are bears?
Pointing out the current reality which you ignore & they have been right about, doesn't mean they are bearish.

Both you & SailorBoy constantly overreact & make bad assumptions.
Hardly the traits of a skilled investor.

I'm fairly certain you and most of the negative here are either misguided or stirring for a bit of sport (I have no issue with either by the way provided we are all being relatively respectful to each other). I know this because if a 1.6mil house price dropped to 500k or less, you would snap it up if you had the cash to do so, and stand on the roof tops shouting out about the bargain you got.
And if you were the one who owned the house bought at 1.6mil, the housing market would be a total failure, all and sundry be forewarned about how much of a failure.
If nothing else, this thread certainly highlights the psychological aspect to investing, much like Dremen talks about in his book.

[Entrep]

It looks fine to me, just plodding along nicely just as I expected it to. Nothing really out of the ordinary.

15145

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMWQ5cGZwYzk0YXE0MnNtNHdjOGYwcml oYzIyY3N1cDA0bGNoOGpiciZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/QMHoU66sBXqqLqYvGO/giphy.gif

"Plodding along"

https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbWhydWh1MGxzcDN4ZDY2c2VlbjhwZHZ mZW9xOXc5YTF3bXg1bzFiMiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfY nlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/O5NyCibf93upy/giphy-downsized.gif

[Balance]

I'd prefer they keep the developments going, but maybe reduce debt funding and fund with a higher proportion of ora. (This might reduce further developments). But i want them to be continuing to get as many ora generating assets as possible behind them as time progresses (keep the divi and plow it into more ora generating assets please).

Suggest you look closely at how OCA has not only used all the 'float' but loaded up with debt to the point that it now has to sell assets & stopped paying dividends to pay operating costs and interest.

Fine if OCA has invested all the 'float' and debt in good quality assets in demand by the market but it has not imo.

The float has not only been badly invested by management in ever more expensive and costly developments (resulting in more unsold stock) but management has loaded up with debt and gone on a spending spree as well like a classic boom time amateur developer! hardly surprising that Brent has done a runner.

And what happens with over-leveraged developers left with unsold stock?

Meanwhile, suggest you also look at the amortization of DMF and how that has (imo) resulted in front ended recognition of revenues with costs to be covered later.

[Daytr]

I'm fairly certain you and most of the negative here are either misguided or stirring for a bit of sport (I have no issue with either by the way provided we are all being relatively respectful to each other). I know this because if a 1.6mil house price dropped to 500k or less, you would snap it up if you had the cash to do so, and stand on the roof tops shouting out about the bargain you got.
And if you were the one who owned the house bought at 1.6mil, the housing market would be a total failure, all and sundry be forewarned about how much of a failure.
If nothing else, this thread certainly highlights the psychological aspect to investing, much like Dremen talks about in his book.

Well it's hardly misguided if it's been right, which to date has been the case. And as I said in another post I don't see posters such as Winner or Balance overly bearish, maybe short term. But they do point out the potential risks. They just aren't in the ra ra camp like a Warriors supporter, where nothing can go wrong & even if it does, it's actually a positive.

No doubt about the house but that $1.6M house I would get a return on.
The only return OCA are getting is DMF that basically offsets operational losses.

The rest is new sales or resales.

Their NTA is a share price of $1.60 either, I think it's inflated as well.
I still standby my current valuation of around 90c.
See I'm not a bear.

[Balance]

It's no coincidence that these bulls that held OCA at $1.60 are now bearish at 52c. They are unable to value or think for themselves, so they let the market do it for them. Except this is exactly the opposite of how you need to approach investing...

Suggest you do the same, ValueNZ and retest your value drivers for OCA - there is much for you to learn just as there is for the rest of us too.

OCA is no 'virgin' RV company investing its 'float' in good quality developments and assets but a company loaded up with debt and in a different space altogether.


Suggest you look closely at how OCA has not only used all the 'float' but loaded up with debt to the point that it now has to sell assets & stopped paying dividends to pay operating costs and interest.

Fine if OCA has invested all the 'float' and debt in good quality assets in demand by the market but it has not imo.

The float has not only been badly invested by management in ever more expensive and costly developments (resulting in more unsold stock) but management has loaded up with debt and gone on a spending spree as well like a classic boom time amateur developer! hardly surprising that Brent has done a runner.

And what happens with over-leveraged developers left with unsold stock?

Meanwhile, suggest you also look at the amortization of DMF and how that has (imo) resulted in front ended recognition of revenues with costs to be covered later.

[Entrep]

The you might stop losing money...

1. I am not invested in OCA and have not lost any money.

2. Do you know how to read a chart? You have lost money.

[Cupsy]

Suggest you look closely at how OCA has not only used all the 'float' but loaded up with debt to the point that it now has to sell assets & stopped paying dividends to pay operating costs and interest.

Fine if OCA has invested all the 'float' and debt in good quality assets in demand by the market but it has not imo.

The float has not only been badly invested by management in ever more expensive and costly developments (resulting in more unsold stock) but management has loaded up with debt and gone on a spending spree as well like a classic boom time amateur developer! hardly surprising that Brent has done a runner.

And what happens with over-leveraged developers left with unsold stock?

Meanwhile, suggest you also look at the amortization of DMF and how that has (imo) resulted in front ended recognition of revenues with costs to be covered later.

They have invested in growing ora (and dmf, pac and other user pay fees) generating assets, having and increasing those assets is why I'm in the room. There are risks, like with anything in life, the question is at what probability.

[Ferg]

Meanwhile, suggest you also look at the amortization of DMF and how that has (imo) resulted in front ended recognition of revenues with costs to be covered later.

Not quite correct Balance. From the latest AR page 58, in particular the part in green:



Deferred Management Fees
Deferred management fees are considered leases and are payable by residents of the Group’s
units, apartments and care suites under the terms of their ORA or unit title rights. Refer to note 3.4.
Management fees are typically payable on termination of the ORA up to a maximum percentage
of a resident’s occupation licence or unit title rights deposit for the right to share in the use and
enjoyment of common facilities.

The timing of the recognition of deferred management fees is a critical accounting estimate and
judgement. The deferred management fee is recognised on a straight line basis over the longer of
the term specified in a resident’s ORA or the average expected occupancy. The expected periods
of occupancy are based on historical Group averages, for the relevant accommodation they are
estimated to be 7 years for units and premium apartments, 5 years for apartments and 3 years for
care suites from the date of occupation.

P.S. I noticed the phrasing "premium apartments" was not there last year, previously DMF for apartments were all amortised over 5 years. Now premium apartments are 7 years. So in fact, OCA have moved to spreading the DMF revenue from permium apartments over a longer time period, which is the opposite of 'front end loading'.

Note from 2023 AR:

they are estimated to be 7 years for units, 5 years for apartments and 3 years for care suites

[Balance]

Not quite correct Balance. From the latest AR page 58, in particular the part in green:



P.S. I noticed the phrasing "premium apartments" was not there last year, previously DMF for apartments were all amortised over 5 years. Now premium apartments are 7 years. So in fact, OCA have moved to spreading the DMF revenue from permium apartments over a longer time period, which is the opposite of 'front end loading'.

Note from 2023 AR:

Thanks for that, Ferg.

And on average, how long are the residents living on in the various units?

[Balance]

Folks, also consider that OCA's assets can never be created in the future for less than now, or even better, for less than they cost OCA to create.

They just need to be reasonably useful to society and you'll be fine.

Garbage.

Tell that to the developers who are selling their land now for 30% to 40% less than what they paid 3 2 and 3 years ago.

[Cupsy]

Originally Posted by Cupsy View Post
I'm fairly certain you and most of the negative here are either misguided or stirring for a bit of sport (I have no issue with either by the way provided we are all being relatively respectful to each other). I know this because if a 1.6mil house price dropped to 500k or less, you would snap it up if you had the cash to do so, and stand on the roof tops shouting out about the bargain you got.
And if you were the one who owned the house bought at 1.6mil, the housing market would be a total failure, all and sundry be forewarned about how much of a failure.
If nothing else, this thread certainly highlights the psychological aspect to investing, much like Dremen talks about in his book.


Well it's hardly misguided if it's been right, which to date has been the case. And as I said in another post I don't see posters such as Winner or Balance overly bearish, maybe short term. But they do point out the potential risks. They just aren't in the ra ra camp like a Warriors supporter, where nothing can go wrong & even if it does, it's actually a positive.

No doubt about the house but that $1.6M house I would get a return on.
The only return OCA are getting is DMF that basically offsets operational losses.

The rest is new sales or resales.

Their NTA is a share price of $1.60 either, I think it's inflated as well.
I still standby my current valuation of around 90c.
See I'm not a bear.

Ok so "been right", I will agree with you on that if your measure of right is shareprice alone, in that case you are right and my above post is wrong.

[Ferg]

Thanks for that, Ferg.

And on average, how long are the residents living on in the various units?

You're welcome. From the note:

straight line basis over the longer of the term specified in a resident’s ORA or the average expected occupancy. The expected periods of occupancy are based on historical Group averagesIf residents live less than expected then it's a windfall. If residents live longer than expected then it's a loss. Swings and roundabouts is how I see it. I have faith in the valuation and audit methodologies. If there are major observed departures from historical averages, I would expect amortisation periods to be adjusted accordingly. The new method for 'premium apartments' suggests OCA have been proactive in not front end loading DMF revenue recognition on this subset of properties based on something they know.

Where confusion can arise is the profile for charging DMF differs to it's recognition in the P&L. Yes there is front end loading of charging clients (much like insurance is invoiced in advance, not in arrears) but that is not indicative of how the revenue is recognised in the P&L. Hence we have "deferred management fees" on the liability side of the balance sheet which is essentially unearned income - unearned in the sense that it has been charged to the client, but not yet taken to the P&L.

[Balance]

Who was talking about land?

All developers talk about land. Those who don't obviously have too much money to spend but little sense - like OCA with its prolific use of its 'float' and use of debt.

[Daytr]

Folks, also consider that OCA's assets can never be created in the future for less than now, or even better, for less than they cost OCA to create.

They just need to be reasonably useful to society and you'll be fine.

Man you are such a spruiker.
I agree with Balance. Absolute garbage but for a different reason.
Building costs have actually been coming down, not going up, after the spike in costs due to Covid. Just look at what a company like GJ Gardner is offering now.

The Government has also said they want to cut red tape & allow more & cheaper building products to be imported.

So its not impossible to think build costs could reduce by a further 10 or 20%, perhaps more.

[Balance]

Man you are such a spruiker.
I agree with Balance. Absolute garbage but for a different reason.
Building costs have actually been coming down, not going up, after the spike in costs due to Covid. Just look at what a company like GJ Gardner is offering now.

The Government has also said they want to cut red tape & allow more & cheaper building products to be imported.

So its not impossible to think build costs could reduce by a further 10 or 20%, perhaps more.

And have a look at the prices of household appliances as another example too. Post Covid in 2021 and 2022, their prices were in the stratosphere, appliance sellers were booking windfall profits but they have come crashing down in the last year and half.

[Daytr]

Give anexample of what the government have said they want to achieve in cost reduction/red tape and have done so.

Agreed a cookie cutter house might become a little cheaper in real terms, not nominal, but if you think the browns bay development, The Sands, or The Helier can be produced for less.

Dream on Day Trader.

Coz Dreams are free bud.

Mate you are the only one who has been dreaming.

Ignore that risk at your peril as if it happens it will have a material impact on resale margins.

I see you ignored the fact that building costs are actually reducing right now and have been for the last year or so.

[Toddy]

How are the latest Corelogic valuations factored into the OCA SP recovery time frame.

[Entrep]

How are the latest Corelogic valuations factored into the OCA SP recovery time frame.

"That metric is meaningless. In 2040, all real estate valuations and transactions in New Zealand will be carried out in terms of, and indexed against, OCA shares. An Auckland bungalow will probably run you 10 OCA shares by my calculations."

-- Sailor Rob (probably)

[Toddy]

"In 2040, all real estate valuations and transactions in New Zealand will be carried out in terms of, and indexed against, OCA shares. An Auckland bungalow will probably run you 10 OCA shares by my calculations."

-- Sailor Rob (probably)

I think Shaza from the ANZ Bank pretty much said the same thing.

[Entrep]

Be more valuable currency than FBU? Tell us about your special insights there, are they as good as your OCA insights?

Haha, now you're going through my post history? LOL

[Balance]

Haha, now you're going through my post history? LOL

Don’t mind him, Entrep. He is getting desperate now that his floater is actually a sinker.

[blackcap]

wow this thing is going down quicker than the Titanic. $0.52 is just ridiculous considering their super high super safe NTA.

[Balance]

wow this thing is going down quicker than the Titanic. $0.52 is just ridiculous considering their super high super safe NTA.

Retail buying and institutional selling - one way sp action until such time as the institutions stop selling and hopefully, start buying again. Call that the OCA inflection point.

[blackcap]

Retail buying and institutional selling - one way sp action until such time as the institutions stop selling and hopefully, start buying again. Call that the OCA inflection point.

Yep, waiting with interest. At some point there will be very good value here.

[winner69]

Retail buying and institutional selling - one way sp action until such time as the institutions stop selling and hopefully, start buying again. Call that the OCA inflection point.

After inflection points come transformation....so can't go wrong eh mate

Wonder what buzzword the new CEO will come up with

[winner69]

I think the new CEO will soon realise day to day operations are running at a loss so will efficiently envisioneer principle-centered process improvements to reduce costs

[Balance]

After inflection points come transformation....so can't go wrong eh mate

Wonder what buzzword the new CEO will come up with

We have been around, W69 so like Ryman, new CEO will want to start with a clean slate before buzzing us with her visions and missions?

Fully expecting her to talk prospects and outlook down first (very tough out there) and initiate write-downs & provisions. Lots of hard work ahead for her but have faith that she will prevail! Investors have to be patient and give her the opportunity to clean up the mess left behind. Brent already alerted to the clean up ahead, remember?

Nothing like starting from the lowest point!

[Balance]

Get the feeling that the institutions already have an inkling of what kind of action the new CEO is going to take? :eek2:

[Mrbuyit]

Reminds me of that scene in Braveheart..

[Cupsy]

Reminds me of that scene in Braveheart..

Which scene?

[mistaTea]

Reminds me of that scene in Braveheart..

“Some men are longer than others”?

🤣

[mike2020]

I think hed be thinking of the bit near the end where poor Mel gets eviscerated.

[Balance]

Reminds me of that scene in Braveheart..

“Hold! Hold!”

[mistaTea]

Reminds me of that scene in Braveheart..

Daytr: could you crush a man with that OCA STOCK?

SR: I could crush you. Like a werum…

[mistaTea]

Reminds me of that scene in Braveheart..

Ok, no I have it now. It is the rallying speeches we have seen from Sailor Wallace.


****

Sailor Wallace: Sons of NZ! My name is Sailor Wallace...

Value NZ: Sailor Wallace is 7 feet tall!!!

Sailor Wallace: Yes, I've heard! And if he were here, he'd consume the institutional sellers with fireballs from his eyes! And bolts of lightning from his arse!

**bit of a chuckle from the onlookers*

Sailor Wallace: I AM Sailor Wallace! And I see before me an army of my retail investors here in defiance of OCA tyranny! WHAT WILL YOU DO WITHOUT OCA? Will ya hold?!

Winner: No, we will sell! And actually make money investing elsewhere!

Sailor Wallace: Aye, hold and you may die. Sell, and you'll make more money. Fehr utleest eh whale...and dying in your beds, many trades from now... would you be willing... to give all the trades, from this trade to that!, ...for one chance …JUST ONE CHANCE!!… to come back here, and tell those insto sellers... that...

THEY MAKE TAKE OUR GAINS...BUT THEY'LL NEVER TAKE... OUR OCA SHARES!!!

**rapturous applause and general yelling and hooting from the fans**

[mistaTea]

Bloody Legendary

Hopefully everyone can have a bit of a giggle and take the heat out of the usual fighting.

And I do love me a bit of Braveheart. Practically a documentary as far as I am concerned!!

[Balance]

Good one, mT!

And here's where that great movie ended!


https://youtu.be/cCHf8FxqzJc?si=svr8itDY9P3TSh7r

[mistaTea]

Good one, mT!

And here's where that great movie ended!

https://youtu.be/cCHf8FxqzJc?si=svr8itDY9P3TSh7r

I could imagine you as the Executioner telling sailor to…cry out…

But even if the sailor Wallace capitulated, value will be there at the end of the movie to pick up the slack…

“You have LOST with (sailor) Wallace! Now lose with me…”

[Daytr]

Ok, no I have it now. It is the rallying speeches we have seen from Sailor Wallace.


****

Sailor Wallace: Sons of NZ! My name is Sailor Wallace...

Value NZ: Sailor Wallace is 7 feet tall!!!

Sailor Wallace: Yes, I've heard! And if he were here, he'd consume the institutional sellers with fireballs from his eyes! And bolts of lightning from his arse!

**bit of a chuckle from the onlookers*

Sailor Wallace: I AM Sailor Wallace! And I see before me an army of my retailer traders here in defiance of OCA tyranny! WHAT WILL YOU DO WITHOUT OCA? Will ya hold?!

Winner: No, we will sell! And actually make money investing elsewhere!

Sailor Wallace: Aye, hold and you may die. Sell, and you'll make more money. Fehr utleest eh whale...and dying in your beds, many trades from now... would you be willing... to give all the trades, from this trade to that!, ...for one chance …JUST ONE CHANCE!!… to come back here, and tell those insto sellers... that...

THEY MAKE TAKE OUR GAINS...BUT THEY'LL NEVER TAKE... OUR OCA SHARES!!!

**rapturous applause and general yelling and hooting from the fans**

Kudos that's bloody funny. No emphasis on the bloody.

[Balance]

I could imagine you as the Executioner telling sailor to…cry out…

But even if the sailor Wallace capitulated, value will be there at the end of the movie to pick up the slack…

“You have LOST with (sailor) Wallace! Now lose with me…”

Stop it, mT! :D

It's too much laughter even for me this time of the evening!

https://media.tenor.com/wIxFiobxxbIAAAAM/john-jonah-jameson-lol.gif

[mistaTea]

Yeah I have watched Braveheart once or twice.

I often think about how sailor and value first met.

***

Elder (sailor) Wallace: un, wear da ya think yer goin?

Younger (value) Wallace: Ehm goin wid yew!

Elder: ohhh yehr goin wid me are ye?

Younger: *nods*

Elder: *hoisting value over his shoulder” Aye, un a foin ‘elp yehd be twooo…but, eh need yeh ta steyh ere un look after the forum fehr me…whale em eh way…

Younger: aye kun traydh…

Elder: *softly* eh knowwww. Eh know ya kun trayhdd!
But it’s our insulting posts thut mehk us mehn…

[Balance]

Yeah I have watched Braveheart once or twice.

I often think about how sailor and value first met.

***

Elder (sailor) Wallace: un, wear da ya think yer goin?

Younger (value) Wallace: Ehm goin wid yew!

Elder: ohhh yehr goin wid me are ye?

Younger: nods

Elder: *housting value over his shoulder” Aye, un a foin ‘elp yehd be twooo…but, eh need yeh ta steyh ere un look after the forum fehr me…whale em eh way…

Younger: aye kun traydh…

Elder: *softly* eh know. Eh know ya kun trayhdd!
But it’s our insulting posts thut mehk us mehn…

Told you to stop it, mT!

My partner just got upset with me for spilling some of the wine!

https://images.hive.blog/0x0/https://media.giphy.com/media/26FPxFeuN8UA7nqGQ/giphy.gif

[Cupsy]

Hopefully everyone can have a bit of a giggle and take the heat out of the usual fighting.

And I do love me a bit of Braveheart. Practically a documentary as far as I am concerned!!

Rob Roy is where it's at.

[Mrbuyit]

Which scene?

Well, Balance was on board with the scene I was thinking about, but then mistaTea pretty much just clocked this thread.

[Balance]

Well, Balance was on board with the scene I was thinking about, but then mistaTea pretty much just clocked this thread.

'tis a good one eh?

All in the timing. :eek2:


https://youtu.be/iDVuQi4gdtk?si=xBICNsdkdi8qcCSo

[Ferg]

Brent already alerted to the clean up ahead, remember?
The transcript posted by SR had some typos in it. For instance references to IOUs were actually ILUs. And the "cleaning" quote was incorrect, the actual transcript of that sentence is:

"um, we`ve got plenty of um , plenty ahead of us."

Brent repeated the word 'plenty' which was mistaken for 'cleaning'.

[thegreatestben]

Thanks for clarifying Ferg, I thought it a strange comment.

I am currently on the other side of the world so appreciate all for their input.

Except for Daytr as usual.

[Daytr]

Rob Roy is where it's at.

SailorBoy more reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python.
OCA's SP drop is a mere flesh wound...

https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs?feature=shared

[Daytr]

It's the opposite of any kind of wound.

Big order in yesterday, will try again today.

Lower the better.

Perfect on cue performance, you have the part

[Greekwatchdog]

All the noise is coming from you Short Term/Momentum Traders. Your fixation with it is crazy. Just because the share price is falling doesn't mean the companies going broke. I said after result I expected the share price to settle around $0.50 until we see a fall with inflation and the market gets to see when interest rates pencil in when rates start to come down which will be the last quarter of the year for me.

Remember the debt whist high is locked in at a cheaper interest rate until 2028. I wonder what the debt position will be then. Makes me wonder where the share price will be then :)

[Lego_Man]

What a **** show. I believe in this sort of situation, the share price is not actually an attempt to form an accurate valuation of the company as it stands today, it's more a leading indicator of where the market thinks the macro situation is going (particularly re: property prices). Also liquidity flows, as the big wealth managers and fund managers have been downweighting NZ equities to invest offshore (follow the performance trail).

[Leemsip]

Love that SR buying hard here... Double down.... Love the conviction and hope it works out.

I remember some similiar behaviour from Coutts back in the day with ATM. Was a similar much discussed share back then too....

[Daytr]

All the noise is coming from you Short Term/Momentum Traders. Your fixation with it is crazy. Just because the share price is falling doesn't mean the companies going broke. I said after result I expected the share price to settle around $0.50 until we see a fall with inflation and the market gets to see when interest rates pencil in when rates start to come down which will be the last quarter of the year for me.

Remember the debt whist high is locked in at a cheaper interest rate until 2028. I wonder what the debt position will be then. Makes me wonder where the share price will be then :)

With all due respect, I think the fixation is a reaction with the constant spruiking, screwed up logic, up is down, nothing to see here, negatives are actually positives type rhetoric.

I find it interesting that not many shareholders question this sort of hyperbole. The fact they don't suggests to me they are clinging to hope rather than reality.

Having been one of the biggest critics of this absurd logic, I still however have put out a target value of 90c.

[mike2020]

Wow. After all that you see a potential 100% gain to be had. (I'm factoring in a drop to 45 cents)

[allfromacell]

With all due respect, I think the fixation is a reaction with the constant spruiking, screwed up logic, up is down, nothing to see here, negatives are actually positives type rhetoric.

I find it interesting that not many shareholders question this sort of hyperbole. The fact they don't suggests to me they are clinging to hope rather than reality.

Having been one of the biggest critics of this absurd logic, I still however have put out a target value of 90c.

The thing is, these sort of asymmetric investment opportunities do not come around that often. You need a mix of low liquidity, poor sentiment and retail popular shares to get this sort of price action. The cost of living struggles many are facing also help.

There is nothing wrong with being genuinely grateful for the opportunity. It is quite a rare occasion, especially when buying a business backed by real tangible assets.

A reminder, even the post pessimistic analysts rate the stock significantly higher than it's current trading price.

[bull....]

Well said.

lol says the man who thinks these analyst's are s.hit and has said it on this thread.

[winner69]

The transcript posted by SR had some typos in it. For instance references to IOUs were actually ILUs. And the "cleaning" quote was incorrect, the actual transcript of that sentence is:

"um, we`ve got plenty of um , plenty ahead of us."

Brent repeated the word 'plenty' which was mistaken for 'cleaning'.

Hey Rob …where did you get the transcript you originally posted?

[bull....]

remember folk's most of the posters on this thread are bagholders

[Baa_Baa]

remember folk's most of the posters on this thread are bagholders

And the rest are traders sniffing around for an entry. Stands to reason, seems most people see an opportunity, just coming at it from different motivations.

[Cupsy]

One thing is certain, not enough of us are doing a reasonable level of due diligence wrt oca conveyed information (AR etc). The level of misinformation on here really is horrendous.

[Daytr]

Wow. After all that you see a potential 100% gain to be had. (I'm factoring in a drop to 45 cents)

Well 70% actually. Doesn't mean I wouldn't rule out 45c or even 40c in the meantime.
Their reduction in development should see a reduction in debt, I also think the property market will improve in the next 12 months in fact outside of Wellington due to Government job cuts, I think we are already seeing that.

[mike2020]

Well 70% actually. Doesn't mean I wouldn't rule out 45c or even 40c in the meantime.
Their reduction in development should see a reduction in debt, I also think the property market will improve in the next 12 months in fact outside of Wellington due to Government job cuts, I think we are already seeing that.

Are you in Wellington? I have been told the massive lay offs predicted are not happening in any great way.

[Cupsy]

It's horrendous but it's good.

If there was not massive misinformation out there, I'd be broke.

Well I guess that's true, but you'd expect that we'd all be a step up from your average retail investor if we are taking the time to participate on here. But my gosh, some days it's like a book review where a bunch of ppl who haven't read the book (or even seen the movie adaptation) are trying to discuss the plot.

[Daytr]

Nope, but I have heard the opposite.

[Daytr]

One thing is certain, not enough of us are doing a reasonable level of due diligence wrt oca conveyed information (AR etc). The level of misinformation on here really is horrendous.

Hi Cupsy, do you think the market misunderstands OCA and its mispriced?
Or is the current price reflective of the risk and market conditions?

[Daytr]

Come on one of you must want to flog me your scrip at 52. I'm begging.

21 buyers at 52c for less than $150k of shares or $7.1k average per buyer.
Hardly the big end of town...
What's it costing you? A new main sail. :)
Seriously though, I think it's good buying down here, but it doesn't mean its not without risk or that it wont see 'deeper' value next week...