OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[couta1]

Second time today it just got smaked down to $1.12 on volume, big game player in action here, fascinating to watch.

[Beagle]

Second time today it just got smaked down to $1.12 on volume, big game player in action here, fascinating to watch.

Is Kashin swinging his trunk...lol, sorry couldn't resist :D

[couta1]

Is Kashin swinging his trunk...lol, sorry couldn't resist :D I reckon the Elephant whisperer has been having a few gentle words in Kashins ear.

[Food4Thought]

I reckon the Elephant whisperer has been having a few gentle words in Kashins ear.

Wowsa... how good is that upswing SUM goes up and I assume the sell offs are partially buying OCA with their wins. I know I've done it... a bit blown away at the moment for some serious wins. Was half half with OCA and SUM but I can't keep that ratio if SUM carries on swinging higher and higher...

well I can... yet that involves breaking my long term strategy and still see more positive territory for OCA as I see them as serious gold.

[warren]

And they are now in the process of selling off the Polish port in GIF ii. They don't appear to be wanting to sell it too cheaply either according to this:

https://inframationgroup.com/emea-macquarie-readies-major-port-sale

I reckon they won't be selling OCA off too cheaply either, but just that's my opinion.[/QUOTE]

Too right they wont!!! OCA will be a tiny, tiny little interest to this giant. They can already see it will be bigger than Ryman:) and their little 79 cents will be a strapping $13 so its hold, hold, hold especially when the the elephant is not MAC but its something that has never, ever occurred in the history of the world and it nearly all has to go back to the Market. As I see it the market will double and double again in the next 25 years. It has to unless this tidal wave of $$$$$$$$$$$$$ is gonna sit in the banks gathering dust.

$9.5 trillion Australian super system and growing fast
50 billion in NZ Kiwisaver and growing
40 billion in the Cullen fund and growing

[winner69]

From numbers produced by MBIE on Skilled Migrants and those with Essential Skills there are more chefs than aged care nurses and aged care / disabled nurses.

Don’t think Burger King people are chefs

[Maverick]

Trading halt!!! 15% of Macquarie being unloaded. At last McCashin (great name by the way Beagle) is starting to cash-in.
Will be on the edge of my seat to see the terms but whatever it is at least it is underway.

[bull....]

the sell down begins 15% now 42% to go lol

[Maverick]

The way I understand it is that there is a trigger percentage rule when someone is buying a bulk amount like this. That is, that if they buy more than say 20% (or whatever it is) of a company in a single blow they have to offer all shareholders the same terms. So with that "vague " understanding them the 15% sale makes good sense. I`d be curious if anyone had more clarity on this?

[minimoke]

Damn. I had a buy order sitting in the queue at $1.13.

[Xerof]

$1.08 appears to be the price.

[Joshuatree]

What lies ahead, an abattoir? Selling at a top, $1.14 with a discount of 5% =$1.08 for this first tranche, I dont feel like racing to a golden chalice dressed up as a trough in this round.

[King1212]

$1.08 appears to be the price.

how come $1.08? Thanks

[minimoke]

how come $1.08? Thanks
Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure: On 4 September 2018,OHHL entered into a block trade agreement (attached to this notice) with Deutsche CraigsLimited and Craigs Investment Partners Limited, First NZ Capital Group Limited andMacquarie Securities (NZ) Limited under which OHHL appointed Deutsche Craigs Limitedand Craigs Investment Partners Limited, First NZ Capital Group Limited and MacquarieSecurities (NZ) Limited to manage and underwrite the sale of 95,000,000 ordinary sharesin Oceania held by OHHL for NZ$ 1.08 per share. As a consequence of that agreement,there is also a qualification on the power of OHHL to dispose of, or control disposal of, suchshares. Settlement of that sale is expected to occur on 7 September 2018.

[King1212]

Sorry...did not read that page...

[Beagle]

Each time Quadrant placed some of their SUM shares the SP rose very nicely thereafter. History suggests this is a great time to buy. Fundamentally the shares are VERY CHEAP for an investment in this sector with its long term demographic tailwinds. Kashin living up to its name as expected.

[winner69]

Beagle(?) and others at the end of town queuing up to buy these cheap ones

[Beagle]

Beagle(?) and others at the end of town queuing up to buy these cheap ones

Definitely trying to get my snout into some. Its a bookbuild and $1.08 is the floor, that's all I know at this stage.

[winner69]

Lucrative day for the brokers

[percy]

Lucrative day for the brokers

And us investors.....

[Lawstudent05]

And us investors.....

Hi Team,

Could someone if they have time, explain in laymans terms what is happening with the trading Halt?

Whats the pros and Cons to OCA? Does this mean the price will push down to $1.08 on 7th of Sept? Ie market will be flooded with a bucket load of shares?

As always thanks to anyone who replies, note wont be selling but just wanting to learn and understand.

Cheers

[King1212]

Hi Team,

Could someone if they have time, explain in laymans terms what is happening with the trading Halt?

Whats the pros and Cons to OCA? Does this mean the price will push down to $1.08 on 7th of Sept? Ie market will be flooded with a bucket load of shares?

As always thanks to anyone who replies, note wont be selling but just wanting to learn and understand.

Cheers

it normally will go down,just like ARVIDA, down to $1.15 before go up again...but this case Macquarie has more than 50%.. plenty to off load...it will create a bit of hang over...

[LAC]

For non holders, like myself. Will I need to go to the likes of Craigs if I wish to participate?

[Beagle]

For non holders, like myself. Will I need to go to the likes of Craigs if I wish to participate?

Yes I think you would need to have a broking contact and account with them already. Bid floor confirmed at $1.08. Process followed is a standard bookbuild with bids at $1.08 or higher. This placement will be at a maximum discount to yesterday's closing price of ~ 5% and I think it will be at a lower discount than that i.e. the bookbuild match process will probably be slightly north of $1.08. I see this organised placement as is a very positive thing for the SP and expect it will rerate fairly quickly afterwards.

[Joshuatree]

I think you do need to have a relationship with Craigs etc. As Beagle said the floor is $1.08, but interest is high is what im hearing and there may be very little discount to current prices;MAQ time things to get the best deal for them hence selling at a top with an overhang avalanche to follow. I dont think their timing is good for me so i will watch this mature bull market and wait for a better price a little further down the trail.

[percy]

I have bid $1.12.
I expect the price will be closer to $1.10.
All successful bidders end up paying the same price.
Deals like this help to recoup the Craigs brokerage charges I pay.

[Joshuatree]

FWIW my broker has a hold and 1 year target price of $1.18.

[minimoke]

I have bid $1.12.
I expect the price will be closer to $1.10.
All successful bidders end up paying the same price.
Deals like this help to recoup the Craigs brokerage charges I pay.One of the disadvantages with my el cheapo direct broking account. I'll miss out and have to wait till market re-opepns

[Blue Skies]

One of the disadvantages with my el cheapo direct broking account. I'll miss out and have to wait till market re-opepns

Me too. Any idea how long this process will take & when OCA market will reopen?

[Beagle]

Me too. Any idea how long this process will take & when OCA market will reopen?

Highly likely the market will start trading again tomorrow morning. My understanding is the bookbuild closes at 5.00 p.m. today.

[BlackPeter]

Me too. Any idea how long this process will take & when OCA market will reopen?

Just re-read the announcement. Share will trade again latest by tomorrow morning, i.e. announcement likely to be later today - or alternatively coming with tomorrows opening.

[Maverick]

I`m hopeless at understanding the legal transaction like these announcements (companies selling shares to holding companies with all but the same names etc) but if somebody is bored who can understand the legalese can you clarify my understanding...
The way I read it the guts are;
Toady Macquarie have sold 15% of their shares to NZ share brokers who will ring up their clients today to on sell them.
The share brokers are going to pay Macquarie $1.08.
Therefore none will actually get traded on the public NZX.

So Basically it's a 15% placement from Macquarie to a NZ broking firm who will on sell them to their own clients.

[Beagle]

I`m hopeless at understanding the legal transaction like these announcements (companies selling shares to holding companies with all but the same names etc) but if somebody is bored who can understand the legalese can you clarify my understanding...
The way I read it the guts are;
Toady Macquarie have sold 15% of their shares to NZ share brokers who will ring up their clients today to on sell them.
The share brokers are going to pay Macquarie $1.08.
Therefore none will actually get traded on the public NZX.

So Basically it's a 15% placement from Macquarie to a NZ broking firm who will on sell them to their own clients.

That's almost it. Brokers will work with their clients in a bookbuild whereby they're invited to place their bid at a price and quantity that they want them at with a minimum of $1.08 bid. Brokers will charge their clients brokerage at standard rates for those that are successful with their bid and brokers also earn fees from Macquarie as the vendor which is why Winner69 quite righty suggested its a good day for brokers. Some investors will sell existing shares in other companies to fund their purchase making it an even better day for brokers but other canny investors knew this placement was coming and have funds already reserved for it.

[dabsman]

Dont waste your time with ASB. not participating...

[Lawstudent05]

Just looked at Craigs Updated View on OCA today - just released.

Target Price of $1.18

Consensus estimates
Average - $1.20
High - $1.26
Low - $1.13

4 partners were polled.

[sb9]

Dont waste your time with ASB. not participating...

They're useless...hope in future there'll be another player out there who can offer online broking services.

Sorry to digress...

[trader_jackson]

Just looked at Craigs Updated View on OCA today - just released.

Target Price of $1.18

Consensus estimates
Average - $1.20
High - $1.26
Low - $1.13

4 partners were polled.

All the brokers, those especially who now have shares to offload, will no doubt suddenly become more ambitious about OCA, and accordingly target prices will rise.

But not to ambitious yet because there is still 40 odd percent to offload


Forsyth are the ones at $1.13 - no wonder they didn't get the call up to participate. Too busy directing clients to ARV although you wouldn't think so given it is still more undervalued than OCA at its previous closing price.

[Maverick]

That's almost it. Brokers will work with their clients in a bookbuild whereby they're invited to place their bid at a price and quantity that they want them at with a minimum of $1.08 bid. Brokers will charge their clients brokerage at standard rates for those that are successful with their bid and brokers also earn fees from Macquarie as the vendor which is why Winner69 quite righty suggested its a good day for brokers. Some investors will sell existing shares in other companies to fund their purchase making it an even better day for brokers but other canny investors knew this placement was coming and have funds already reserved for it.

Thanks Beagle for replying and clarifying it all. Well summarized.
Whatever the next few weeks has in store for the SP, I see it as the beginning of a sensible exit by Macquarie which will leave OCA unimpeded by the overhang for us remaining shareholders. I`m glad their getting onto the exiting process rather than lingering for a few years.
The fact they have now lost control of the company leads me to suspect the unloading the remaining 40% will be forthcoming untill they are fully out.
I believe Macquarie have bought a terrific business to the NZX and I believe everyone, including the residences themselves, has and will win out of this.

[Joshuatree]

They're useless...hope in future there'll be another player out there who can offer online broking services.

Sorry to digress...

For the same brokerage?.Get real, have a full service broker as well.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Beagle for replying and clarifying it all. Well summarized.
Whatever the next few weeks has in store for the SP, I see it as the beginning of a sensible exit by Macquarie which will leave OCA unimpeded by the overhang for us remaining shareholders. I`m glad their getting onto the exiting process rather than lingering for a few years.
The fact they have now lost control of the company leads me to suspect the unloading the remaining 40% will be forthcoming untill they are fully out.

I believe Macquarie have bought a terrific business to the NZX and I believe everyone, including the residences themselves, has and will win out of this.

I believe terrific MAQ know how to extract maximum value for themselves and their timing is key to doing just that.Clever also to dump near the very top in tranches . Too rich for me at this stage of the cycle and ive got my eyes on something hugely discounted, over the ditch in the same sector instead..

[Beagle]

I believe terrific MAQ know how to extract maximum value for themselves and their timing is key to doing just that.Clever also to dump near the very top in tranches . Too rich for me at this stage of the cycle and ive got my eyes on something hugely discounted, over the ditch in the same sector instead..

At $1.14 I have them on a forward PE of just 11 which I see as remarkable value for this high growth sector. Yes Kashin will probably live up to its name again at some future date for another tranche but for the near future this placement removes the overhang and I am expecting a rerating accordingly.

[percy]

But wait there's more...!!!
OCA have been trading at a discount because of the over hang.
Now the discounted over hung shares are being off loaded at a discount.
Two discounts are better than one.....lol.

[winner69]

But wait there's more...!!!
OCA have been trading at a discount because of the over hang.
Now the discounted over hung shares are being off loaded at a discount.
Two discounts are better than one.....lol.

Will they continue to trade at what is seen to be a ‘discount’ because there’s still an overhang

If

[peat]

... less of an overhang tho :t_up:
I have a bid in but a stingy one, as I already have some exposure. so not overdoing it, but always keen for a bargain with quality.

[Beagle]

But wait there's more...!!!
OCA have been trading at a discount because of the over hang.
Now the discounted over hung shares are being off loaded at a discount.
Two discounts are better than one.....lol.

:lol: :lol: You're in top form today !

Agree 100% Maverick, onward and upward from here and everyone is a winner including the residents. Talk about a feel good investment !

[percy]

... less of an overhang tho :t_up:
I have a bid in but a stingy one, as I already have some exposure. so not overdoing it, but always keen for a bargain with quality.

Not knowing what I am doing my broker is putting in multiple bids for me.
I will get more at the lower bids, and fewer at the highest bid.?
Yet we all pay the same set price./
Offcourse I said "Yeah right go for it."...…??...lol.

[percy]

:lol: :lol: You're in top form today !

Agree 100% Maverick, onward and upward from here and everyone is a winner including the residents. Talk about a feel good investment !

Yes agree..

[Joshuatree]

I wish you well guys but with all the euphoria generated i just hope you havn't been played like a fiddle by MAQ .

[Xerof]

Not knowing what I am doing my broker is putting in multiple bids for me.
I will get more at the lower bids, and fewer at the highest bid.?
Yet we all pay the same set price./
Offcourse I said "Yeah right go for it."...…??...lol.

The Funds will bid higher to get volume done percy, I think thats the logic.

Everything below the book-build price misses out. Retail tend to try for a cheap deal, whereas wholesale know this is a great opportunity to pick up a decent parcel at one price, with no mucking about waiting for liquidity, and will bid it higher.

With still 40% to go, they may not be too aggressive for the first tranche. lets see how it pans out.

Nearest the pin? I'll say 1.11

And I'll also say, IMO, it's been the Funds churning this around ad nauseam, ensuring it didn't run away before this block sale took place. It clearly has not been McCashin selling it on-market

[percy]

I wish you well guys but with all the euphoria generated i just hope you havn't been played like a fiddle by MAQ .

As always a case of doing your own research.
I trust my own, and back myself buying putting my hand up for more OCA.

[percy]

The Funds will bid higher to get volume done percy, I think thats the logic.

Everything below the book-build price misses out. Retail tend to try for a cheap deal, whereas wholesale know this is a great opportunity to pick up a decent parcel at one price, with no mucking about waiting for liquidity, and will bid it higher.

With still 40% to go, they may not be too aggressive for the first tranche. lets see how it pans out.

Nearest the pin? I'll say 1.11

Thank Xerof.
I can make sense of it.
I think my highest bid is $1.12.

[Joshuatree]

I'll say $1.12 -13(plus commission).

[Maverick]

The Funds will bid higher to get volume done percy, I think thats the logic.

...And I'll also say, IMO, it's been the Funds churning this around ad nauseam, ensuring it didn't run away before this block sale took place. It clearly has not been McCashin selling it on-market

Yeah , I reckon! I've been watching this one very closely and up until a week ago it seemed very apparent someone or someones where trying to hold the SP price down. Quite the opposite of Macquarie trying to push it up to flog off. I thought the way the selling bids had settled to normal trading late last week that either the game had finished and the deal done or whoever it was had run out of bullets. Either way I figured, without the suppression, the SP was in for a good week.

Normally I try to focus on the business first and the shareprice 2nd, but this is pretty damn exciting to be part of. How sad is that.

[Beagle]

The Funds will bid higher to get volume done percy, I think thats the logic.

Everything below the book-build price misses out. Retail tend to try for a cheap deal, whereas wholesale know this is a great opportunity to pick up a decent parcel at one price, with no mucking about waiting for liquidity, and will bid it higher.

With still 40% to go, they may not be too aggressive for the first tranche. lets see how it pans out.

Nearest the pin? I'll say 1.11

And I'll also say, IMO, it's been the Funds churning this around ad nauseam, ensuring it didn't run away before this block sale took place. It clearly has not been McCashin selling it on-market

Good post and I'd say that's right on the money.

[couta1]

As always a case of doing your own research.
I trust my own, and back myself buying putting my hand up for more OCA. I'm not getting too excited until tomorrow to see how many I got or didn't get. The book build closed at 4pm so shes all over Rover unless it was undersubscribed (Highly unlikely) more likely it was oversubscribed and scaling will apply.

[couta1]

Thank Xerof.
I can make sense of it.
I think my highest bid is $1.12. Final price will be the average of all the bids, the more high bids just drive the average up at the end of the day, lots of bids at $1.08 would keep it lower.Lol.

[Blue Skies]

Looks like not going to get trampled on by the pachyderm after all, just keep calm :eek2: https://www.facebook.com/100009982270994/videos/576245439384860/

[percy]

Looks as though the price is $1.10.

Now I will just have to wait to see how many I brought.

[Beagle]

Looks like not going to get trampled on by the pachyderm after all, just keep calm :eek2: https://www.facebook.com/100009982270994/videos/576245439384860/

WOW what an awesome video. Be interesting tomorrow to see how many if any I managed to get my snout into.

[Blue Skies]

Be interesting tomorrow to see how many if any I managed to get my snout into.[/QUOTE]

Good luck Beagle & thanks for clarifying several things today.

Looks like when the market resumes there's currently only a handful under 115.
Will be interesting to see the SP at close tomorrow though it's long term am looking at.

[winner69]

So a $1.10 ...suppose that’s a bargain of sorts

[couta1]

So a $1.10 ...suppose that’s a bargain of sorts Beagle and I bidded $1.10 yesterday morning as we agreed that was a fair price. It's been scaled as I suspected so will wait and see how many we got.PS-Remember after the recent good result some were happy to dump at $1.10 after it hit $1.16 in the morning.

[minimoke]

I've still got my order sitting there at $1.13 - will wait to see how things pan out.

[Maverick]

Looking back at when SUM had its main shareholder sell up in 2013 I don't think this first OCA placement will actually do much to the share price at all.

I am certainly excited to see the announcement and am very pleased Macquarie have shown their hand and actively exiting but I don't think much will change today.
SUM had a majority shareholder who had 56% and they sold theirs off in the same way as this first tranche of OCA. The SUm situation seems identical to OCA. They sold 19% in the first round followed by a second wave of 14% 2 months later and the last wave of 23.2% 5 months after that.

The first SUM placement was at a 7% market discount, the share price rose about 15% over the following month. The second wave was a discount of about 2.5% and the share price gave up half of its recent 15% rise almost instantly. The third wave and the last I haven't figured out what discount it sold at yet, the share price gave a small insignificant rise but quickly gave that up.

All in all the SUM share price was pretty unaffected by the exiting of its cornerstone holder. The SUM share just keep steadily climbing almost unaffected at all.

[limmy]

For those of us who aren't as knowledgeable about these placements, what would you expect the price to be ?

1) a bit or significantly higher or lower on opening today ?
2) any expected movements within the day
3) closing higher or lower than the $1.14, halt price ?

I'm trying to understand the mechanics in this process.

Cheers.

[BlackPeter]

Looking back at when SUM had its main shareholder sell up in 2013 I don't think this first OCA placement will actually do much to the share price at all.

I am certainly excited to see the announcement and am very pleased Macquarie have shown their hand and actively exiting but I don't think much will change today.
SUM had a majority shareholder who had 56% and they sold theirs off in the same way as this first tranche of OCA. The SUm situation seems identical to OCA. They sold 19% in the first round followed by a second wave of 14% 2 months later and the last wave of 23.2% 5 months after that.

The first SUM placement was at a 7% market discount, the share price rose about 15% over the following month. The second wave was a discount of about 2.5% and the share price gave up half of its recent 15% rise almost instantly. The third wave and the last I haven't figured out what discount it sold at yet, the share price gave a small insignificant rise but quickly gave that up.

All in all the SUM share price was pretty unaffected by the exiting of its cornerstone holder. The SUM share just keep steadily climbing almost unaffected at all.


For those of us who aren't as knowledgeable about these placements, what would you expect the price to be ?

1) a bit or significantly higher or lower on opening today ?
2) any expected movements within the day
3) closing higher or lower than the $1.14, halt price ?

I'm trying to understand the mechanics in this process.

Cheers.

Just read Mavericks well researched post ...

[limmy]

Thanks Black Peter.

[winner69]

For those of us who aren't as knowledgeable about these placements, what would you expect the price to be ?

1) a bit or significantly higher or lower on opening today ?
2) any expected movements within the day
3) closing higher or lower than the $1.14, halt price ?

I'm trying to understand the mechanics in this process.

Cheers..

Rate it’s going so far none of these apply (if $1.14 was the base)

In reality 1) was neither of those ...answer being unchanged

2) and 3) still to be decided by the market

Your guess is as good as anybody’s

[limmy]

Yes W69, people seem to have accepted $1.14 as the standard on-market price from now on.

I'm wondering if there are some people who might have obtained huge parcels at $1.10, with borrowed cash, needing to sell some of their existing holdings to fund their purchase ?

[Rossimarnz]

Put a bid in at $1.12 through FCNZ. Was allocated 2/3rds of what I bid for at $1.10. Pleasing outcome

[couta1]

Put a bid in at $1.12 through FCNZ. Was allocated 2/3rds of what I bid for at $1.10. Pleasing outcome Yep, got 70% of what I bid for.

[Blue Skies]

Given that uncertainty around the overhang must have acted as a hand brake on the SP & now with first tranche sold (& well supported ) so can see a clear path forward, and with v safe fundamentals & reasonable divy, my intuitive guess is a gradual careful climb to low/mid 120's over next few weeks.
Why would anyone sell at these levels just when much uncertainty removed & the outlook so promising?
Plus so much money in super funds, bank deposits etc looking for a safe home with better returns.
Of course having stuck my neck out will probably be proved totally wrong :)

[BlackPeter]

Interesting - I got all the shares I asked for at 1.10 :t_up:. I do feel privileged, but maybe I just didn't asked for that many ;) or my broker got a larger allocation;

[percy]

Interesting - I got all the shares I asked for at 1.10 :t_up:. I do feel privileged, but maybe I just didn't asked for that many ;) or my broker got a larger allocation;

I was more than happy to receive 91%.

ps I did put in for 50% more than I wanted...
Have ended up very "well positioned",but broke.!...lol.
Just as well the HBL divie is due on the 21st.

[couta1]

Interesting - I got all the shares I asked for at 1.10 :t_up:. I do feel privileged, but maybe I just didn't asked for that many ;) or my broker got a larger allocation; There would have been a minimum amount and anything under that wouldn't have been scaled I'd say.

[Ggcc]

Looks like it maybe a high of $1.14 for the day. A big order comes and takes at $1.14 and many more get slapped down at $1.14. I will wait patiently and see where the sp may head

[Beagle]

Looks like it maybe a high of $1.14 for the day. A big order comes and takes at $1.14 and many more get slapped down at $1.14. I will wait patiently and see where the sp may head

I think that's very wise. A small percentage of investors won't be able to resist playing the arbitrage of selling at $1.14 and booking a tiny profit after brokerage each way, but I think the vast majority invested for the medium / long term because this is a compelling growth opportunity no matter how you slice and dice it. Very happy to get some allocation and I'll be holding long term as I've seen what's happened with SUM other stocks like RYM and only mugs sell early.

[minimoke]

Very happy to get some allocation and I'll be holding long term as I've seen what's happened with SUM other stocks like RYM and only mugs sell early.I cant think of any better retirement plan. Already hold RYM, bought into SUM recently and today got 70% of request for OCA at $1.10 and picked a few more up at $1.13. Come retirement this pig wont know when to either keep rolling in the muck or keep snout in the trough. And once I stop pigging out I hoping I'll get a shareholder discount to move into one or others properties depending on my state of mind at the time.

[whatsup]

So how many bought off brokers and sold on market to fund the purchase today for .03 profit ( less tax if there is any ) ?

[minimoke]

Still not enough to ignite any interest on the ASX. Zero trades so far and only 3 buyers / sellers. Just wait until this one gets onto their radar!

[peat]

I was too stingy to get any at the $1.10 price.
Never mind OCA is 6% of the portfolio already and with SUM at 13% I dont want to be too overweight in the retirement sector

[dabsman]

As an aside - how many broker relationships do you guys run? How do you manage it? ASB seem to never lead any placement or underwrite anything but they have my margin account so its dead easy. Any advice?

[Joshuatree]

Two for me
ASB for trading
Craigs for investing
Also clear and transparent for the IRD and accountants.

[percy]

I just deal with Craigs for both NZ and Australia.

[Ggcc]

Wow what a day to offload shares the whole market is down 1.4%. Oceania is doing better than most others.

[peat]

Wow what a day to offload shares the whole market is down 1.4%. Oceania is doing better than most others.
TLS is doing pretty good considering it revised guidance downwards :confused:

so volume on OCA is 96.45 million guess that ties up. .

I use a few brokers :

two for shares, (ASB Sec , and Craigs)
one for forex (Oanda)
one for CFD's (CMC)

[couta1]

TLS is doing pretty good considering it revised guidance downwards :confused:

so volume on OCA is 96.45 million guess that ties up. .

I use a few brokers :

two for shares, (ASB Sec , and Craigs)
one for forex (Oanda)
one for CFD's (CMC)

TLS and CNU with big profit drop just highlight how mental the market can be. PS-OCA looking to hit $1.12

[Beagle]

Good solid feel to OCA at this level based on compelling fundamentals. I see underlying earnings of 11.5 cps (up 37%) for FY19 based on the dramatic uplift in the number of units to be developed and delivered this year. This puts OCA on a forward PE of just 10. I think this truly compelling given their proven business model, stellar care reputation which is second to none and well defined pipeline of consented developments looking further out than FY19.

The possibility of PE expansion in the year ahead is VERY high in my opinion. I see a minimum of a 5% dividend yield this year so shareholders are being paid reasonably well to enjoy strong growth. Happy holder and now have a slightly bigger position than SUM other well proven company.

On a day like today I tell myself to embrace volatility and remind myself that these are needs based business's trading with massive strong demographic tailwinds for the foreseeable future.

I really see very little prospect of material downside from here but over the long run there are very few opportunities to build wealth over time that come along that are as attractive as this one. In case anyone has missed it...just bring up the graph for SUM and RYM for the last 5 years and then ask yourself if you'd like to get in at close to the ground floor with this one.

[Joshuatree]

Are you slipping Roger and advising people to buy? i sure hope not.

[couta1]

Good solid feel to OCA at this level based on compelling fundamentals. I see underlying earnings of 11.5 cps (up 37%) for FY19 based on the dramatic uplift in the number of units to be developed and delivered this year. This puts OCA on a forward PE of just 10. I think this truly compelling given their proven business model, stellar care reputation which is second to none and well defined pipeline of consented developments looking further out than FY19.

The possibility of PE expansion in the year ahead is VERY high in my opinion. I see a minimum of a 5% dividend yield this year so shareholders are being paid reasonably well to enjoy strong growth. Happy holder and now have a slightly bigger position than SUM other well proven company.

On a day like today I tell myself to embrace volatility and remind myself that these are needs based business's trading with massive strong demographic tailwinds for the foreseeable future.

I really see very little prospect of material downside from here but over the long run there are very few opportunities to build wealth over time that come along that are as attractive as this one. In case anyone has missed it...just bring up the graph for SUM and RYM for the last 5 years and then ask yourself if you'd like to get in at close to the ground floor with this one. Very well summed up, IMO this will double in value over the next 3 years but decide for yourself. PS-Im guilty of selling both SUM and RYM too soon and don't intend repeating the same mistake 3 times.Lol.

[Beagle]

Yeap, could easily double I reckon mate or quite possibly a fair bit more. 37% earnings growth this year followed by 20% in FY20 and FY21 (1.37 x 1.2 x 1.2) = 1.97 times your money and that's without any PE expansion at all, off by all comparisons in this sector, a very low PE base at present.

I'm sure you do Joshuatree, but not everyone on here understands the fundamentals or the effect of compounding underlying earnings growth. Just doing a bit of vision casting on where this could go and there's a fair bit of supporting historical evidence with SUM other great companies in this sector to support my thesis.
I really think its very important to look at least 5 years ahead on what a company might be valued at and in that regard I see this company having the genuine prospect of replicating the stellar gains of other great retirement stocks in their early years.

[minimoke]

I'll keep it simple. $2 in two years, $3 in 3 years and $5 in 5 years (with divis along the way)

[percy]

I'll keep it simple. $2 in two years, $3 in 3 years and $5 in 5 years (with divis along the way)

I concur...……………….lol.

[Maverick]

I was too stingy to get any at the $1.10 price.
Never mind OCA is 6% of the portfolio already and with SUM at 13% I dont want to be too overweight in the retirement sector
Hi Peat. I'm a wanganui lad too. Can I buy you a coffee sometime? Look me up under wanganui electricians if your keen. I'm the guy with all the silver vans with the blue lighting all over them ...R
ps. I don't think you can have too many SUM,ARV or especially OCA. (Funny how no one ever includes MET?)

[Joshuatree]

Yeap, could easily double I reckon mate or quite possibly a fair bit more. 37% earnings growth this year followed by 20% in FY20 and FY21 (1.37 x 1.2 x 1.2) = 1.97 times your money and that's without any PE expansion at all, off by all comparisons in this sector, a very low PE base at present.

I'm sure you do Joshuatree, but not everyone on here understands the fundamentals or the effect of compounding underlying earnings growth. Just doing a bit of vision casting on where this could go and there's a fair bit of supporting historical evidence with SUM other great companies in this sector to support my thesis.
I really think its very important to look at least 5 years ahead on what a company might be valued at and in that regard I see this company having the genuine prospect of replicating the stellar gains of other great retirement stocks in their early years.

I agree re a long term story. And to a friend(who holds big $ of NZ shares) who rang me yest asking about this OCA offer, ive said ," what you dont have ANY of these retirement /care prop stocks at all, get some now"!. But as a holder i want a much better discount before i top up so happy to wait for the possible opportunity. IMO I dont see the s/p going up at all much in the next year with this very mature bull mkt , volatility ahead,and prop prices dropping.

[Beagle]

RBNZ look like they might be lowering the OCR. All the evidence suggests on a national average basis real estate is still increasing nicely. I do agree this bull market is mature but there are definitely pockets of value out there so I was very happy to double down at $1.10. Not much of a discount but that's reflective of value already on offer at $1.14 in my opinion.

SUM and RYM had a forward PE of around 30 in their early years...just a thought...

[minimoke]

,and prop prices dropping.Probably for a different thread. But that may not be a bad thing for the sharemrket. As people get out of property they have to put their money somewhere. Term deposits hopeless, crypts too risky, metals up and down. Leaves the sharemarket - more demand. (add to that prospect of lower interest rates NZ's traditional high divvy will be attractive)

[Traderwannabe]

I just deal with Craigs for both NZ and Australia.

Can you trade with Craigs online? How much brokerage do you pay?
Im currently using ASB but trading on the ASX is expensive... $30 a trade is their minimum

[herbert240]

To those who got allocated shares through their broker can I ask roughly how many you were able to obtain. I presume it was several hundred thousand?

[minimoke]

To those who got allocated shares through their broker can I ask roughly how many you were able to obtain. I presume it was several hundred thousand?Dont know where you would get that assumption. We are not all moneyed high rollers here!

By deduction I reckon those that asked for 10,000 or less probably got a full quota. Those that asked for more got scaled. The more you asked for the greater the scaling.

[Rossimarnz]

Dont know where you would get that assumption. We are not all moneyed high rollers here!

By deduction I reckon those that asked for 10,000 or less probably got a full quota. Those that asked for more got scaled. The more you asked for the greater the scaling.

I am definitely not a high roller. I asked for 1500 shares and was allocated 1000. I bought through FCNZ.

[Ggcc]

Dont know where you would get that assumption. We are not all moneyed high rollers here!

By deduction I reckon those that asked for 10,000 or less probably got a full quota. Those that asked for more got scaled. The more you asked for the greater the scaling.
You just made me laugh out loud. Great post.

[minimoke]

I am definitely not a high roller. I asked for 1500 shares and was allocated 1000. I bought through FCNZ.Did you ask at $1.10 or a higher number?

[Rossimarnz]

Did you ask at $1.10 or a higher number?

I bid at $1.12

[LAC]

To those who got allocated shares through their broker can I ask roughly how many you were able to obtain. I presume it was several hundred thousand?

Several Hundred thousand:scared: (well that assumption, def doesnt include me...)

[herbert240]

Dont know where you would get that assumption. We are not all moneyed high rollers here!

By deduction I reckon those that asked for 10,000 or less probably got a full quota. Those that asked for more got scaled. The more you asked for the greater the scaling.

I got that assumption from my broker when we were having a general discussion on investments including Oceania. We never actually discussed numbers but I got the impression that they weren't interested in small investors for these sorts of issues so thanks mimimoke (and others) for enlightening me on that point. I will be better prepared next time.

[percy]

Can you trade with Craigs online? How much brokerage do you pay?
Im currently using ASB but trading on the ASX is expensive... $30 a trade is their minimum

You are best to approach Craigs and negotiate with them.
They are a lot more expensive than ASB and ANZ Securities.
I would not be able to trade in Aussie unless I used Craigs.Transfering funds,taking up rights issues, and banking dividends, I would find impossible to do,as I am not computer savvy.
So yes a lot more expensive,however it suits me, and I do get generous allocations to new issues and placements,as well as access to their research.

[Blue Skies]

I am definitely not a high roller. I asked for 1500 shares and was allocated 1000. I bought through FCNZ.

Just curious if you don't mind me asking, what was the brokerage FCNZ charged on those 1000 shares?

[BlackPeter]

Just curious if you don't mind me asking, what was the brokerage FCNZ charged on those 1000 shares?

I can't answer the question on FCNZ ... however -

I bought my allocation through Chris Lee (I am one of his clients). I asked for and received a parcel worth $15k up to a SP of $1.11, and he didn't charge any brokerage at all.

I do assume though, that the underwriters are paying him a fee.

edit: above information was correct at the time of writing, but unfortunately just a billing error from Chris Lees office - I ended up paying 1.25% brokerage - check:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=728392&viewfull=1#post728392

[Rossimarnz]

I can't answer the question on FCNZ ... however -

I bought my allocation through Chris Lee (I am one of his clients). I asked for and received a parcel worth $15k up to a SP of $1.11, and he didn't charge any brokerage at all.

I do assume though, that the underwriters are paying him a fee.

I paid $60 brokerage through FCNZ. I know that is expensive but I attribute much greater value to their advice and access to opportunities than I do to the cost of the brokerage I pay. I am investing for my children so have a long investment horizon and consider the brokerage costs as my gift to my kids.

[Blue Skies]

I can't answer the question on FCNZ ... however -

I bought my allocation through Chris Lee (I am one of his clients). I asked for and received a parcel worth $15k up to a SP of $1.11, and he didn't charge any brokerage at all.

I do assume though, that the underwriters are paying him a fee.


Thanks BP, that's great, i wonder if nil brokerage was standard for everyone who got an allocation?

If brokerage was charged on 1000 shares, it would hardly be worth it.

I only use ANZ Securities so didn't bother with the allocation, but did want more shares & bought another 20,000 @ 113 yesterday which cost me about $64 in brokerage & was curious if by the time Craigs or FNZC etc brokerage was added to the 110 there was v little difference ?

[Food4Thought]

Probably for a different thread. But that may not be a bad thing for the sharemrket. As people get out of property they have to put their money somewhere. Term deposits hopeless, crypts too risky, metals up and down. Leaves the sharemarket - more demand. (add to that prospect of lower interest rates NZ's traditional high divvy will be attractive)

OCA will get a huge amount of attention from this cash if houses are sold off and deposits are put elsewhere.

Don't forget retired folk are risk averse and this stock will have many great signals for a steady return with limited risk.

I am delighted with how many shares there are as I see OCA having the potential for a large share holder diversity and reach.

This one is for the long term hold with many more positive signs then negatives IMO.

I also contemplate the potential for OCA to be bought out by a larger retirement operator to diversify their business with the easy sweep of a well established entity into their ummmmbrella. Not only a potential from kiwi firms, and other large companies interested in this sector. Health funds, pharmacies, retirement funds (kiwi saver etc, other pension funds) the opportunity to buy a large establishment of functioning businesses.

Good day!

[Blue Skies]

I paid $60 brokerage through FCNZ. I know that is expensive but I attribute much greater value to their advice and access to opportunities than I do to the cost of the brokerage I pay. I am investing for my children so have a long investment horizon and consider the brokerage costs as my gift to my kids.

Good on you Rossimarnz, your kids are fortunate & the brokerage will be money well spent when the SP has doubled, tripled & more in the coming years.

[Joshuatree]

Well done to the Vampire Kangaroo as the Brits call MAQ. How long before the next dump of shares, im guessing not long as this one went to ready buyers.Be good to get the overhang out of the way for sure.

[winner69]

Does this mean Craigs kept some of the cheap shares for themselves

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/323568/286375.pdf

[BlackPeter]

I can't answer the question on FCNZ ... however -

I bought my allocation through Chris Lee (I am one of his clients). I asked for and received a parcel worth $15k up to a SP of $1.11, and he didn't charge any brokerage at all.

I do assume though, that the underwriters are paying him a fee.

Just to set the record straight. This information (no brokerage) was correct at the time of posting. However - his office sent me later on Friday a "replacement bill" indicating that they had to charge brokerage due to the NZX charging them as well. I.e. I ended up with something like 1.25% brokerage on top of the share price. Much more brokerage than I would have paid for a normal trade with my usual broker (ANZ Securities - but they didn't offer the opportunity to buy into this sell down), but still a wee gain compared to what I would have paid when buying the shares on market.

[Blue Skies]

Just to set the record straight. This information (no brokerage) was correct at the time of posting. However - his office sent me later on Friday a "replacement bill" indicating that they had to charge brokerage due to the NZX charging them as well. I.e. I ended up with something like 1.25% brokerage on top of the share price. Much more brokerage than I would have paid for a normal trade with my usual broker (ANZ Securities - but they didn't offer the opportunity to buy into this sell down), but still a wee gain compared to what I would have paid when buying the shares on market.

Thanks BlackPeter, it's an interesting question when on the one hand we're given the opportunity for a discounted buy, but on the other hand the offer is restricted to a few specific brokers who charge significantly higher brokerage than direct brokers like ANZ Securities (which is all I use) wiping out much of the advantage. Am not suggesting they shouldn't be paid extra for their research/work but just looking at it purely from cost point of view.

Just a little anecdote , I was talking to a share broker a couple of months ago, and he knew stuff all about OCA, & I ended up telling him it was one to watch. Was a bit surprised, thinking he was supposed to be the well informed expert, which I most definitely am not. If it was a horse race, he was only aware of the old favourites out front RYM, SUM, MET & not watching the exciting young filly OCA showing great potential, just getting into stride gaining in confidence & coming in fast down the back strait.:)

[percy]

Sharebrokers are like posters here.
You get the good,the bad and the ugly.

[horus1]

A good full research broker charging at 1% is well worth it.

[Ggcc]

I am hoping on $1.10-$1.12 for these shares on market. If I don’t get that price I will win anyway with the shares I own and I will assign that money to another share or leave as cash. As for brokers unless IPOs just use your own head and do the research. From what I hear people who use brokers tell them just do what you would invest in. If you are investing lots of money would you not want to save money and do it yourself???. I spoke to someone from Forsyth Barr and they did not tell me something I already did not know. They just assure you that you are investing in the correct share and charge you a lot more than ANZ Securities. The only thing brokers do well is not use emotions. They don’t generally love a share

[LAC]

Those using Craigs, do they provide their paying clients with a quarterly or half yearly report on their analysis of other stocks? Like their research or view of whats hot and whats not? If so, is it any good?
Just trying to figure out if I should become a client purely so that I dont miss out on things Insto's get over using ASB/ANZ.

[Blue Skies]

Just to clarify, wasn't expressing an opinion here about the pros & cons of using a share broker for general trading.

Simply curious & keen to reassure myself in this specific case, hadn't lost too much by buying (once market resumed) at slightly higher price via ANZ Securities with lower brokerage v the lower price allocation with slightly higher brokerage. Appears it was about $200 extra

[peat]

Those using Craigs, do they provide their paying clients with a quarterly or half yearly report on their analysis of other stocks? Like their research or view of whats hot and whats not? If so, is it any good?

Its not overly predictive but its comprehensive research. I find it useful even if I don't act on what they say.

[Maverick]

ok....got nothing today that's new or interesting to add here, It's just time to comment for the sake of it.
Basically it's "sing when your winning" kind of thing. OCA (and its share price) is running like clockwork. It just chugs away and a predictable and orderly ascent as it builds its villages. The first sale of the 95 million shares has gone extremely well. The market seems to have absorbed it without blinking (thats $105 million over a few days- outstanding!).
If it was to exactly follow summersets selling of its first tranche then the OCA SP should climb a week after sell down (today) to about $1.30 over the next month.
Personally, I don't think it will climb that high yet as it's a bit of a stretch for such a young company. Although it totally is worth that IMO.
Anyway.... just happy with the real progress of the company's build rate and achievements. Now just have to practice some patience as Beagle has mentioned.

[minimoke]

Its been chugging along quite nicely the past few days. Flushing out the profit takers at the $1.13 / $1.14 mark. Now they seem to have gone we have trades today at $1.15. Hopefully this is the start of a long, regular and monotonous climb in SP - with the occasional profit taking set back.

[whatsup]

WOW, 1.2 mil shares just gone through knocking on the door of $1.16 ATH !!!

[Beagle]

Its been chugging along quite nicely the past few days. Flushing out the profit takers at the $1.13 / $1.14 mark. Now they seem to have gone we have trades today at $1.15. Hopefully this is the start of a long, regular and monotonous climb in SP - with the occasional profit taking set back.

Great company with outstanding growth prospects. I have earmarked more funds for McKashin's next potential move. I don't think there's any doubt this is a $2 stock, the only debate is which year ? My pick is 2021.

[Maverick]

Great company with outstanding growth prospects. I have earmarked more funds for McKashin's next potential move. No doubt FCNZ is presently taking the brakes off, (yes they were selling and appeared to be capping the price until recently) in preparation for that at some stage in the future. I don't think there's any doubt this is a $2 stock, the only debate is which year ? My pick is 2021.

Yep, agree...the maths are pretty easy, SP $1.15x 20% growth 2019 x 20% growth 2020 x 20% growth 2021 =$1.98 in the spring of 2021.
I`m actually thinking the growth will be more 25% yoy but it just seems too optimistic to actually model that amount.
RYM was actually 30% annual SP growth for the first 6 years
SUM was actually 25% annual SP growth for the first 6 years

[Maverick]

Great company with outstanding growth prospects. I have earmarked more funds for McKashin's next potential move. No doubt FCNZ is presently taking the brakes off, (yes they were selling and appeared to be capping the price until recently) in preparation for that at some stage in the future. I don't think there's any doubt this is a $2 stock, the only debate is which year ? My pick is 2021.
Just curious Beagle, do you mean they deliberately cap the SP or was it that they just were saturating the market which naturally capped the SP? Also I was wondering how you know it was specifically FCNZ?

[Beagle]

Just curious Beagle, do you mean they deliberately cap the SP or was it that they just were saturating the market which naturally capped the SP? Also I was wondering how you know it was specifically FCNZ?

I was chatting about this to Couta1 just recently and he reckoned there was a substantial shareholder notice with attachments which showed they'd been selling a huge amount on market in the lead up to the placement. I'll see if I can find it and post a link. I might have got my wires crossed though, wouldn't be the first time lol
All I can find on public record is this, can't seem to see the attachment will full details of the timing of sales and purchases. Excerpt from SSH notice posted 5/9/18

During the 4 months prior to 4 September 2018 First NZ Capital Securities Limited in the ordinary course of business purchased 4,419,847 OCA ordinary shares for a gross consideration of $5,008,733 and sold 4,690,171 OCA ordinary shares for a gross consideration of $5,308,965.

They were certainly "working it" in terms of trading it but as to the timing of buys and sells I can't find the detail. Acknowledge that their buys and sells were of similar volume so unless sells were heavily weighted towards the latter part of that period the price suppression would have been insignificant so in the apparent absence of any further detail I will edit my earlier comment to be fair to FCNZ.

[whatsup]

OCA capped now @ $ 1.16 will slosh around here for a while now, dammmm !

[winner69]

OCA capped now @ $ 1.16 will slosh around here for a while now, dammmm !

...could go into the 120s quickly from here

[couta1]

...could go into the 120s quickly from here Couta says it's worth $1.36 give or take a few cents.

[Beagle]

Couta says it's worth $1.36 give or take a few cents.

Wasn't it 1 SUM = 5 OCA so should be $7.70 / 5 = $1.54 :t_up:...or is SUM heinously overpriced.
No worries mate, you'll get your chance to buy SUM again at $6.50...just hang in there till 2020, it'll be there after the two for one share split :p

[winner69]

Wasn't it 1 SUM = 5 OCA so should be $7.70 / 5 = $1.54 :t_up:...or is SUM heinously overpriced.
No worries mate, you'll get your chance to buy SUM again at $6.50...just hang in there till 2020, it'll be there after the two for one share split :p

No no no .....it’s 10 OCA = 1 RYM ( actually should be 11:1 if we were more accurate but 10:5:1 looked a more beautiful ratio

OCA then $1.24-$1.37

SUM is the outlier at the moment ....reverting to the mean though

[couta1]

No no no .....it’s 10 OCA = 1 RYM ( actually should be 11:1 if we were more accurate but 10:5:1 looked a more beautiful ratio

OCA then $1.24-$1.37

SUM is the outlier at the moment ....reverting to the mean though Deep in that channel aye winner.PS-Where is that updated version of that beautiful reversion chart by the way?

[winner69]

Deep in that channel aye winner.PS-Where is that updated version of that beautiful reversion chart by the way?

I’ve found it Couts

Update soon ....just to show that SUM at $7.00 or lower is on the cards

[couta1]

I’ve found it Couts

Update soon ....just to show that SUM at $7.00 or lower is on the cards Sounds good mate, I'm just about to crack open the last of the ciders that Beagle bought me in Q/town to celebrate that reversion.

[winner69]

Sounds good mate, I'm just about to crack open the last of the ciders that Beagle bought me in Q/town to celebrate that reversion.

Did he shout you some Good George stuff ....or the bottom of the barrel stuff

[couta1]

Did he shout you some Good George stuff ....or the bottom of the barrel stuff Somersby, Premium European Cider, bottled in Auckland.

[winner69]

Somersby, Premium European Cider, bottled in Auckland.

Had some of that in some English pub last year ..OK at best but probably local apples

Amazed how much NZ cider in the supermarkets over there

[Ggcc]

Somersby, Premium European Cider, bottled in Auckland.
How long does this little wager last for between you and beagle

[noodles]

CEO, Earl Gasparich, will be presenting to NZSA in Auckland on Wednesday, 19th Sep 2018.

Details here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10844-NZSA-Auckland-Meetings-and-Events&p=729164&viewfull=1#post729164

[Beagle]

How long does this little wager last for between you and beagle

Just a one off on that one but I am keen to wager his other relativity theory that TRA is worth $3.80+ doesn't come to pass anytime in the next 12 months !


CEO, Earl Gasparich, will be presenting to NZSA in Auckland on Wednesday, 19th Sep 2018.

Details here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10844-NZSA-Auckland-Meetings-and-Events&p=729164&viewfull=1#post729164


Thanks Noodles. Will try and make this one.

Just catching up on the news this week. Impressive that Liz Coutts bought another 350,000 shares in the placement and now owns 800,000 and
Greg Thomlinson bought 2,000,000 shares.

[value_investor]

Great company with outstanding growth prospects. I have earmarked more funds for McKashin's next potential move. I don't think there's any doubt this is a $2 stock, the only debate is which year ? My pick is 2021.

I have moved some more funds into OCA since the result came out. I've been quiet dormant moving funds since the start of the year, but this one is one of the best stocks in terms of value.

I'll have to agree with you, maybe even earlier if you include the dividend yield over the next few years. I just wished it had a DRP but I think that would reduce its price even more right now.

I think the aging populating situation playing out is still very very early which is good news for holders. I can see the aged care part of the business really getting that scale in a few years.

[Maverick]

They were certainly "working it" in terms of trading it but as to the timing of buys and sells I can't find the detail. Acknowledge that their buys and sells were of similar volume so unless sells were heavily weighted towards the latter part of that period the price suppression would have been insignificant so in the apparent absence of any further detail I will edit my earlier comment to be fair to FCNZ.[/QUOTE]

Thanks for getting back Beagle. I've been watching the buying and selling patterns like a hawk over the months and have been interested in the obvious share price capping at certain times. That's all just a bit of a sideshow to help with the waiting.
was thinking about it yesterday and one point us OCA fans don't bang on about enough is that apart from the enormous growth path,directors buying in, low debt, low PE, blah blah blah is that right now it pays out about 50% of profits which equals 4.1% gross.
That would be considered a reasonable return to many people.
However you slice and dice it "You just can't have too many OCA."

[Beagle]

4.1% is the historical dividend yield mate. I am forecasting ~ 5.5% this year (taking into account the rise in underlying profit) and steadily growing from there...not too shabby is it :) P.S. Think I'll put my hand up for heaps more next time McCashin makes a move.

[Beagle]

Small top up this morning at $1.16. I think McCashin's next move won't be until the late $1.20's and the shares are simply too cheap on any thorough FA at the current level. Sell side starting to wither away too so I thought I'd get on with the job of increasing my stake further.

[couta1]

Small top up this morning at $1.16. I think McCashin's next move won't be until the late $1.20's and the shares are simply too cheap on any thorough FA at the current level. Sell side starting to wither away too so I thought I'd get on with the job of increasing my stake further. The handbrake has been loosened, sit back and enjoy the long term ride by doing nothing except adding if one wishes.

[minimoke]

Small top up this morning at $1.16. I think McCashin's next move won't be until the late $1.20's and the shares are simply too cheap on any thorough FA at the current level. Sell side starting to wither away too so I thought I'd get on with the job of increasing my stake further.Just as well you did - now popped to $1.18!

[BlackPeter]

Small top up this morning at $1.16. I think McCashin's next move won't be until the late $1.20's and the shares are simply too cheap on any thorough FA at the current level. Sell side starting to wither away too so I thought I'd get on with the job of increasing my stake further.

Probably a wise move not to wait for Macquaries next sell off. I'd think as well that they will want to get (and will get) next round more for their shares.

Thought about buying some more as well, but first - still short of cash after buying the last lot ... and than are SUM and OCA anyway already my largest holdings .. and at some stage do I need to start reminding myself about the benefits of diversification ;);

[Beagle]

Just as well you did - now popped to $1.18!
Wasn't enough with the benefit of hindsight, hindsight can be a cruel taskmaster...
Those canny investors who got some placement at $1.10 must be feeling pretty chipper this morning eh mate :)

[winner69]

The handbrake has been loosened, sit back and enjoy the long term ride by doing nothing except adding if one wishes.

Next sell down by Macquarie will be around $1.50 ....early next year

[couta1]

Next sell down by Macquarie will be around $1.50 ....early next year HaHa and with the discount you will get them for $1.40.Lol.

[winner69]

HaHa and with the discount you will get them for $1.40.Lol.

OCA a winner over the next year ...a bigger certainty than WINX.AU and better odds

[winner69]

Is today an all time high?

Blue skies ahead ....will be a big week I reckon

[Beagle]

Is today an all time high?

Blue skies ahead ....will be a big week I reckon

Yeap, all time high on solid volume. Sit back, set the spinnaker and autopilot and enjoy a lovely following breeze as we sail towards a more successful future all the while knowing OCA's residents are receiving the very best care standards in the industry making this arguably one of the most highly ethical investments available on the NZX. Talk about a win-win situation !

[winner69]

Yeap, all time high on solid volume. Sit back, set the spinnaker and autopilot and enjoy a lovely following breeze as we sail towards a more successful future all the while knowing OCA's residents are receiving the very best care standards in the industry making this arguably one of the most highly ethical investments available on the NZX. Talk about a win-win situation !

Sounds like we can’t lose eh mate

I reckon your 2 bucks will happen much sooner than you expect

No worries

[Beagle]

Sounds like we can’t lose eh mate

I reckon your 2 bucks will happen much sooner than you expect

No worries

I'd be happy with $2 in 2021 or even 2022 keeping in mind we'll be enjoying a ~ 5.5% dividend yield this year, growing each year along the way. I'd rather set pretty conservative expectations these days but if its earlier than that I won't be complaining lol That expectation doesn't include any PE expansion of a current low base so there's every chance that's a really conservative expectation right there as well because as they build a good track record of growth some PE expansion is probably to be expected.

Looks like a one way bet where you can't possibly lose..which usually makes me a bit nervous but the directors and some senior management have heaps of skin in the game so are highly motivated so I reckon you can sleep well at night with this one...at least as well as with any other share and probably far better than most.

Maybe Maverick is right in post #1897 when he boldly suggested "However you slice and dice it you just can't have too many OCA"

[Baa_Baa]

Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out?

[winner69]

Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out?

I think you answered the question for some of us ...and I have often been called a 'permabear' and a 'gloom and doom merchant' and such things on this site and rightfully so.


There will be a big crash (the great reckoning) one day .....this half cycle has been going far too long

[couta1]

Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out? When is this disaster coming, this year, next year or the one after? PS-The 10-2 yield curve will guide the way.

[McGinty]

Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out?

Good question BB and I agree the next reckoning will be a shocker.

In my case I will stick to my system (based on TA signals). If the global music starts to slow down, then the TA should give us a heads up (as the smart money move to the sidelines) before it stops.
I'm never getting married to a stock (been to many ugly break-ups), so only ever looking to enjoy the good times and sit out the bad.

Topped up in OCA today (now my largest holding), but still in 1/3 cash as there are less opportunities out there at the mo.

[winner69]

When is this disaster coming, this year, next year or the one after? PS-The 10-2 yield curve will guide the way.

Not much between 2 yr and 10 yr rates at the moment

[couta1]

Not much between 2 yr and 10 yr rates at the moment Around a year away from inverting aye winner, might run for the hills when it hits the zero line.

[percy]

I think you answered the question for some of us ...and I have often been called a 'permabear' and a 'gloom and doom merchant' and such things on this site and rightfully so.


There will be a big crash (the great reckoning) one day .....this half cycle has been going far too long

NZX Index 10 years ago was 3187.
………………….5..years …………….4740.
…………………..3 years...………….5648
…......………...on Friday...……….9270
Over the past 10 years the index has nearly tripled.
Most serious investors would have quadrupled their money over that time.
I know the past four years I have been nervous,and altered my portfolio to "high conviction" stocks,baring in mind, the stocks that recovered quickest after GFC were stocks that continued to pay increasing dividends.
Opportunities are still there for us.Eleven days ago I brought OCA at $1.10, [to add to my existing holding].Today OCA are $1.18 an increase of 7.27%,.That would take me two years or more to earn with bonds or bank deposits.A no brainer.
Today should the NZX fall 20%, it would drop to 7416, which would still be 31% higher than it was 3 years ago,.
A market correction would bite me if GNE,HBL,MEL,MVN,OCA,PGW,TRA and SPK stopped their divies for more than 2 or 3 years.
So long as their divies keep up, and or grow, their share prices are only academic to me.Fun to watch yes,but the end game must be attaining a portfolio that affords you to retire,without ever having to sell any shares to live on,and being able to rely on increasing dividends to support your lifestyle.

[Patient Panda]

A great post Percy. The opportunity cost of not being invested is high. Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

if you are paying more attention to how your actual businesses are doing and the cash and value they are generating a correction or shareprice fluctions really will not bother you much if at all

[Beagle]

A reminder that OCA is a needs based business not a wants based business.

[percy]

A great post Percy. The opportunity cost of not being invested is high. Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

if you are paying more attention to how your actual businesses are doing and the cash and value they are generating a correction or shareprice fluctions really will not bother you much if at all
Time out of the market during the past 10,5 or 3, years has cost dearly.
Yes I try to pay great attention to the business.Is it in the right sector,are the directors honest,do they do what they say they will do.?
Does the business generate solid cash.Does it have a good balance sheet.Why are they better than their competitors?
Having owned my own businesses, I know most days I would have wanted thousands of dollars for them,while some days I would have gladly given them away.!!!
Same with good businesses on the share market.Some days/years people give them away,while other days they pay over the top for poor businesses.
I believe OCA has good directors and management,are in a good sector,have a strong balance sheet,generate cash,will pay an increasing divie,and do what they say they will do.Can't ask for more. than that.

[Vaygor1]

.... So long as [ones] divies keep up, and or grow, share prices are only academic to me. Fun to watch yes,but the end game must be attaining a portfolio that affords you to retire,without ever having to sell any shares to live on,and being able to rely on increasing dividends to support your lifestyle.

Here here Percy. Spot on.

[bull....]

Do you guys ever consider the macro story where NZX and affecting global markets are at all time highs, vulnerable to serious corrections? Or is it just rose coloured spectacles for years hence based on local demographics (which are undeniably supportive). I think that the next great reckoning will not be kind to any share, and consequently have a much more conservative outlook and cautious approach. Or are you so confident in your abilities to exit a disaster, that you might as well ride the wave until it closes out?

ill go with most stocks having a bull market premium , when it ends one day valuations will return to normal and some will have lost a lot of money and some will have kept a lot of money simple as that.

[minimoke]

Today should the NZX fall 20%, it would drop to 7416, which would still be 31% higher than it was 3 years ago,.
A market correction would bite me if GNE,HBL,MEL,MVN,OCA,PGW,TRA and SPK stopped their divies for more than 2 or 3 years.
So long as their divies keep up, and or grow, their share prices are only academic to me.Fun to watch yes,but the end game must be attaining a portfolio that affords you to retire,without ever having to sell any shares to live on,and being able to rely on increasing dividends to support your lifestyle.Which begs the question - how much will teh market correct.

If the market were to correct by 20% today I would lose roughly all gains (exc divi)made over the past 9 months leaving in a Dec 2017 neutral position So that is part of my strategy - have a 20% stop loss.

Part of my strategy is to also look at total gain and try to manage exposure in one single stock so it doesnt exceed that gain. So if one stock goes belly up totally (like CBL) my total loss still leaves me neutral.

My expectation is that by the time I come to retire these stocks will no longer have a need to invest so heavily within teh business and will instead revert to much higher divi yields. Should a 20% correction come before I retire hopefully I have time to recover. If it comes when I do retire I expect that I will be able to release some capital over a year or so without a major impact on long term capital.

OCA fits very, very nicely into these plans

[Maverick]

This is an uncomfortable question that needs to be asked BB, good job.
The responses that have since been forthcoming are ALL excellent from seasoned investors who have without doubt suffered losses and learned from them. Then obviously have adapted their investing style after the pain. Basically, Buy good value that produces solid dividends.
To quote the big man " there is a price at which a company should be bought , a price it should be held and a price it should be sold".
The current market price's most shares in the later category and currently finding something in the "good value" category is quite difficult. OCA is one such gem, at this price.
As an example of the moving valuations, in recent years , shares to attract such "sharetrader" attention by the posters here have been AIR and HLG. Both went through all three categories to the point the posters publicly acknowledged they had gone from keen buyers to reluctant sellers and banked handsome profits (with divis along the way).
Eventually a correction MUST come And there will be pain felt by all, but staying on the sidelines up until now is to lose more. Being invested in good value companies with decent dividends will lose less than overbought "blue chip "stocks that have been pumped up sky high in these good times.
The opinions offered in response to BBs very appropriate question is outstanding and I appreciate you all for taking the time to bother.
Ps. " you just can't have too many oca ...(at this price)"

[winner69]

Around a year away from inverting aye winner, might run for the hills when it hits the zero line.

Couts — The zero line might be sonner then you think
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

Even OCA share price will drop like a lead balloon if there is another ‘reckoning’

[Beagle]

This is an uncomfortable question that needs to be asked BB, good job.
The responses that have since been forthcoming are ALL excellent from seasoned investors who have without doubt suffered losses and learned from them. Then obviously have adapted their investing style after the pain. Basically, Buy good value that produces solid dividends.
To quote the big man " there is a price at which a company should be bought , a price it should be held and a price it should be sold".
The current market price's most shares in the later category and currently finding something in the "good value" category is quite difficult. OCA is one such gem, at this price.
As an example of the moving valuations, in recent years , shares to attract such "sharetrader" attention by the posters here have been AIR and HLG. Both went through all three categories to the point the posters publicly acknowledged they had gone from keen buyers to reluctant sellers and banked handsome profits (with divis along the way).
Eventually a correction MUST come And there will be pain felt by all, but staying on the sidelines up until now is to lose more. Being invested in good value companies with decent dividends will lose less than overbought "blue chip "stocks that have been pumped up sky high in these good times.
The opinions offered in response to BBs very appropriate question is outstanding and I appreciate you all for taking the time to bother.
Ps. " you just can't have too many oca ...(at this price)"

We can all go back to sleep today because you're not going to read a better post than that from anyone. I couldn't agree more and have done handsomely well from the other shares mentioned and agree they're fulsomely priced, unlike OCA.

[Joshuatree]

Ps. " you just can't have too many oca ...(at this price)"

I think MAQ will agree with you and i wonder when the next dump is coming.

Be int to see Brokers valns shared on here
Craigs latest 18/9 is a 1 year target price of $1.18, Their consensus from "3 brokers" is 1 buy and 2 hold with vain target range from $1.13 to $1.22, what others do folks have access to would be of int.

[warren]

Hi commentators. Re the possible "correction". I note no comments on the big new boy in town and he's not going away anytime.
He is the rise of truly enormous state sponsored etc pension funds. Little NZ has $90 Billion already (only thanks to the peoples government getting the two underway). Aussie has $9 trillion (Heavens only knows what that looks like) and the Aussie fund is only the 4th biggest in existence. I gather all these funds are growing rapidly and they all (every single one) lead to Mr Market. I believe the future for good businesses, ethically run, has never ever been better (investment IPO's, Capital issues, Bonds etc) and will remain so for quite some years ? However Lunatic Government borrowing is a matter of concern I sure do agree but Keynes never seemed too worried!

[Beagle]

Very good presentation by Earl Gasparich at the NZ shareholders association Auckland branch meeting this evening.
Posting this while I can remember it. Circa 272 units to be delivered this year up massively from last year.
Delivery is weighted to the second half, about 80 in the first half, balance second half.

Independent living village average stay is 7 years, apartment 5 years and care suite's 2.5-3 years.

License to occupy model on care suites to see a major change in the care mix as they roll out their developments in the years ahead. Moving over time to 60% v 40 care suites v standard care units funded by Govt. License to occupy on care suites involves 10% per annum attrition in elderly folks investment. Much higher churn rate, (opps sorry I know that's a politically sensitive term but lets just go with it and call it what it is) on care suites suggests very good returns for shareholders in the years ahead.

I think they'll do 10-11 cps in underlying earnings this year which puts them on a forward PE of 11.7 - 10.6. This for a fast growing company in a sector with huge tailwinds and in a market where the average forward market PE is just north of 20. Earl Gasparich really impressed.

Disc: I bought even more earlier today, now my #1 position.

[percy]

Thanks to NZSA for putting it on, for Beagle to share.

Interesting to note Greg Tomlinson is a director and a major shareholder in both OCA and HBL.
[not a lot of people know that.!.lol]

[Beagle]

Thanks to NZSA for putting it on, for Beagle to share.

Interesting to note Greg Tomlinson is a director and a major shareholder in both OCA and HBL.
[not a lot of people know that.!.lol]

And he bought 2,000,000 shares in the recent placement. Someone said on here a while back that you can't have too many OCA. When you consider those metrics posted above and the gross yeild this year of over 5% along with their growth prospects, my goodness...I think he's dead right !

[percy]

And he bought 2,000,000 shares in the recent placement. Someone said on here a while back that you can't have too many OCA. When you consider those metrics posted above and the gross yeild this year of over 5% along with their growth prospects, my goodness...I think he's dead right !

Yes compelling fundamentals.



Greg may prefer the 5.29% NET HBL yield.?

[Balance]

Yes compelling fundamentals.



Greg may prefer the 5.29% NET HBL yield.?

Anyone who ever bought anything off Macquarie better be careful. You could suffer losses of EPIC proportions if you are not careful buying anything off them.

[Beagle]

Anyone who ever bought anything off Macquarie better be careful. You could suffer losses of EPIC proportions if you are not careful buying anything off them.

Which retirement company do you think offers a more compelling alternative ? (Note Earl Gasparich had some interesting things to say last night about RYM's share price which basically echo my recent comments on the RYM thread). Maybe he follows the dog :D

[minimoke]

Anyone who ever bought anything off Macquarie better be careful. You could suffer losses of EPIC proportions if you are not careful buying anything off them.Any examples we can look at?

[Balance]

Any examples we can look at?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/9068829/An-Epic-gamble-for-investors

Vwery nice fees for Macquarie but a disaster for those who bought off Macquarie.

[Joshuatree]

Yep ,the kangaroo vampire is ruthless when the scent of money is around just like sharks that can detect a drop of blood in the ocean.

[Balance]

Yep ,the kangaroo vampire is ruthless when the scent of money is around just like sharks that can detect a drop of blood in the ocean.

Macquarie's modus operandi is to accumulate and aggregate operating units of industries (infrastructure, retirement villages, childcare centers etc), leverage them up and then, after a few years of dressing them up, flick to the gullible public at highly inflated prices and with huge fees.

Good on them - it is not called the millionaires' factory for no reason but buying Oceania at this stage of the cycle from them, hmmmmm .....check how much they are making from the deal first.

[minimoke]

Good on them - it is not called the millionaires' factory for no reason but buying Oceania at this stage of the cycle from them, hmmmmm .....check how much they are making from the deal first.Having now just hit $1.20 and with sellers beginning to dry up there wont be too many people upset if they bought into this first tranche

[BlackPeter]

Macquarie's modus operandi is to accumulate and aggregate operating units of industries (infrastructure, retirement villages, childcare centers etc), leverage them up and then, after a few years of dressing them up, flick to the gullible public at highly inflated prices and with huge fees.

Good on them - it is not called the millionaires' factory for no reason but buying Oceania at this stage of the cycle from them, hmmmmm .....check how much they are making from the deal first.

Wouldn't it be much more sensible to ask - "how much is the share worth" instead of "how much money does Macquarrie make"?

Even if we discount the growth potential (given a lack of growth history) - just based on this years earnings ... the current PE is below 10.

Liabilities to assets is below 50% - not outstanding either.

If I take the analysts predictions, the forward PE is 7.4 and the predicted earnings CAGR is above 20% (starting this year) - but hey, if we don't believe the analysts - all this would be anyway just a free bonus.

At this stage do I see a well established care company with a good PE ratio. Any gains from selling the (I think) 300 odd units they plan to complete this year would be free.

I do see them even worst case (no growth) still quite reasonably priced. How much do you think they are worth?

[Beagle]

They have well and truly above market average growth prospects yet are trading at half the market forward PE. They are very cheap by any rational fundamental comparison to their peer group listed here. Perhaps one takes a more "balanced" view and remembers that certain managers at a certain investment bank are rewarded for being transaction-ally orientated. The bonus is not paid until the deal is done.

Rather than slag off an investment bank, more importantly we need to focus on the important issue so I reiterate my earlier question today Balance, which company in the retirement sector do you prefer over OCA and why ? Can I pleased have a balanced answer to this important question ?

Second question. How do you think Quadrant feel now about selling their entire stake in SUM ?

[winner69]

Sitting outside (under an umbrella)on a glorious Wellington day over 20 degrees sipping a cold drink (non alcoholic) with my neighbour.

Decided I’d really join the party and tripled my OCA holding. Hype getting too much for me and I didn’t want to miss out.

Neighbour asked what was I doing on the phone. Buying Oceania shares I said. Must be good then he said. I said heaps of people think som a certainty to make you rich they say

He’s just gone home. I think he is going to dump his Turners shares (cost him close to 320) and have a luck at Oceania ...even though I say stick to Term Deposits mate.

Hope I haven’t ruined the party

[minimoke]

He’s just gone home. I think he is going to dump his Turners shares (cost him close to 320) and have a luck at Oceania ...even though I say stick to Term Deposits mate.

Hope I haven’t ruined the partyThe dire THL ship seems to be turning around. And TRA may just have got someone back on the tiller to steer it in a better direction.

(ship analogy obviously doesn't work for OCA - more like a rocket and hopefully not a Challenger)

[percy]

Sitting outside (under an umbrella)on a glorious Wellington day over 20 degrees sipping a cold drink (non alcoholic) with my neighbour.

Decided I’d really join the party and tripled my OCA holding. Hype getting too much for me and I didn’t want to miss out.

Neighbour asked what was I doing on the phone. Buying Oceania shares I said. Must be good then he said. I said heaps of people think som a certainty to make you rich they say

He’s just gone home. I think he is going to dump his Turners shares (cost him close to 320) and have a luck at Oceania ...even though I say stick to Term Deposits mate.

Hope I haven’t ruined the party

OCA's net dividend yield is under half of TRA's,TRA's is fully imputed and paid quarterly.
Your neighbour one of the bowlers?

[RupertBear]

OCA's net dividend yield is under half of TRA's,TRA's is fully imputed and paid quarterly.
Your neighbour one of the bowlers?

Yep thats what worries me as well Percy. Having those bowlers on board has been a bad omen in the past ;)

[percy]

OCA's net dividend yield is under half of TRA's,TRA's is fully imputed and paid quarterly.
Your neighbour one of the bowlers?

Yep thats what worries me as well Percy. Having those bowlers on board has been a bad omen in the past ;)

Not so funny for him, with the next TRA divie due in just over a month's time.

[BlackPeter]

Sitting outside (under an umbrella)on a glorious Wellington day over 20 degrees sipping a cold drink (non alcoholic) with my neighbour.

Decided I’d really join the party and tripled my OCA holding. Hype getting too much for me and I didn’t want to miss out.

Neighbour asked what was I doing on the phone. Buying Oceania shares I said. Must be good then he said. I said heaps of people think som a certainty to make you rich they say

He’s just gone home. I think he is going to dump his Turners shares (cost him close to 320) and have a luck at Oceania ...even though I say stick to Term Deposits mate.

Hope I haven’t ruined the party

This must be the time to buy some more TRA :t_up: - yep, they are already rising ;):

[couta1]

Kashin must be getting tempted to swing his trunk again the way the price is going, I'm ready and waiting to buy more at a discounted $1.15.PS-Winner tell your bowling mates not to sell any TRA, it's going to $3.83 according to the Couta theorum.

[percy]

This must be the time to buy some more TRA :t_up: - yep, they are already rising ;):

The only reliable "buy" signal .!!
Beats any "Golden Cross,""Loud Hound Barking" etc...………………...lol.

[percy]

Kashin must be getting tempted to swing his trunk again the way the price is going, I'm ready and waiting to buy more at a discounted $1.15.PS-Winner tell your bowling mates not to sell any TRA, it's going to $3.83 according to the Couta theorum.

And it really works...……..!..lol.

[Beagle]

Kashin must be getting tempted to swing his trunk again the way the price is going, I'm ready and waiting to buy more at a discounted $1.15.PS-Winner tell your bowling mates not to sell any TRA, it's going to $3.83 according to the Couta theorum.

LOL I'll believe that when I see it !

[couta1]

LOL I'll believe that when I see it ! When it happens you'll be shipped off to Siberia to join the Huskies.

[Beagle]

When it happens you'll be shipped off to Siberia to join the Huskies.

LOL, do they have ski lifts in Siberia :)
Was funny today that I ended up buying your $1.19 OCA shares eh mate. We should talk more often and we could do off market deals and save heaps of brokerage :)

[couta1]

LOL, do they have ski lifts in Siberia :)
Was funny today that I ended up buying your $1.19 OCA shares eh mate. We should talk more often and we could do off market deals and save heaps of brokerage :) Your not getting my remaining ones for $1.19. PS-Will become overbought soon enough and take a dip.

[Beagle]

Your not getting my remaining ones for $1.19. PS-Will become overbought soon enough and take a dip.

Nah...brakes have come off mate and we're on our way to the mid $1.20's. Just remember that when we get to $1.25 you've officially been Beaglized. I might take pity and send you some ointment to help heal the claw marks :p

[Patient Panda]

Love your coined phrases in this thread, first Mccashin now beaglized. :D

[RupertBear]

Kashin must be getting tempted to swing his trunk again the way the price is going, I'm ready and waiting to buy more at a discounted $1.15.PS-Winner tell your bowling mates not to sell any TRA, it's going to $3.83 according to the Couta theorum.

And which year will that be in Couta? :p Ya would be better to sell those TRA, back up ya truck and load up with some SLI mate, its going to be a winner one day...soon...I hope..:D

[Beagle]

Just a bit of (probably not especially relevant history because McCashin are not Quadrant), but looking at the SP graph as best as I can make it out, (others please feel more than free to post exact numbers) but it looks like the SP of SUM went up 17% in the two months between when Quadrant sold their first stake in SUM in March 13 until they sold their second tranche two months later.

OCA Shares at the time of the first placement by MsCashin were trading at $1.14. (1.14 + 17%) = $1.33. If history repeats this recent awakening in the SP of OCA is just the start and we can expect it to be quickly rerated into the low - mid $1.30's whereupon McCashin might get restless.

History never repeats right :cool:

[stoploss]

Just a bit of (probably not especially relevant history because McCashin are not Quadrant), but looking at the SP graph as best as I can make it out, (others please feel more than free to post exact numbers) but it looks like the SP of SUM went up 17% in the two months between when Quadrant sold their first stake in SUM in March 13 until they sold their second tranche two months later.

OCA Shares at the time of the first placement by MsCashin were trading at $1.14. (1.14 + 17%) = $1.33. If history repeats this recent awakening in the SP of OCA is just the start and we can expect it to be quickly rerated into the low - mid $1.30's whereupon McCashin might get restless.


History never repeats right :cool:

It doesn't look like a problem when a major shareholder sells down a stake in a retirement village operator. :)
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6857002/Ngai-Tahu-sells-chunk-of-its-stake-in-Ryman-for-31-7m

[winner69]

The only reliable "buy" signal .!!
Beats any "Golden Cross,""Loud Hound Barking" etc...………………...lol.

Neighbour and his bowling club mates having a bob each way sort off.

Some have sold if not all but a decent chunk of their Turners (at quite a loss) and put it into OCA

They did make a few bob on A2 but then lost some of those gains on Turners but now for some having both Turners and OCA they reckon they are on a winning streak

[percy]

Neighbour and his bowling club mates having a bob each way sort off.

Some have sold if not all but a decent chunk of their Turners (at quite a loss) and put it into OCA

They did make a few bob on A2 but then lost some of those gains on Turners but now for some having both Turners and OCA they reckon they are on a winning streak

Rough figures.I hold 55% more TRA than OCA shares, or over four times dollar value,and remain "well positioned" in both..

[winner69]

Rough figures.I hold 55% more TRA than OCA shares, or over four times dollar value,and remain "well positioned" in both..

I’ll pass that on to them and tell them they are probably well positioned as well.

Hopefully now springs here they’ll spend more time playing bowls than worrying about trying to beat the market

[Timesurfer]

They did make a few bob on A2 but then lost some of those gains on Turners but now for some having both Turners and OCA they reckon they are on a winning streak

My money is on those guys.

[winner69]

Often I see the market a lot clearer when I am away from it.
Most of my best decisions have been made while mowing the lawn.
I hope they see the market clearer while bowling.
Maybe you could tell them the real advantages of investing in companies, that have the capacity to pay increasing fully imputed divies.

Mowing lawns is good for you eh.

Even though my lawn mowing is actually with a line trimmer (no pristine lawns like you percy) and I generally end up cutting the berms in the whole street it is good thinking time.

Kids say get Mr Green in to do them .....lazy buggers .,,...but I say I wouldn’t have any thinking time if I didn’t do the ‘lawns’

Must go and check on the rata soon.

[Beagle]

Rough figures.I hold 55% more TRA than OCA shares, or over four times dollar value,and remain "well positioned" in both..

Its funny isn't it how insights come to you while you're away from the market. The other day it occurred to me that TNR are the exact opposite of the retirement industry. The long term trend is what I'm referring too. Massive long term tailwinds through demographic trends in the retirement industry and massive long term headwinds for Turners due to technology, (widespread pooled use of self driving electric cars is inevitable), not a question of if, just when. I have four times the value in OCA than I do in TRA because, amoung other reasons I like tailwinds a lot more than headwinds. Be interesting over the years ahead to see who gets their call right. I also think Earl Gasparich has the makings of an extremely good leader. There's something about him that I really like.

[Ggcc]

Its funny isn't it how insights come to you while you're away from the market. The other day it occurred to me that TNR are the exact opposite of the retirement industry. The long term trend is what I'm referring too. Massive long term tailwinds through demographic trends in the retirement industry and massive long term headwinds for Turners due to technology, (widespread pooled use of self driving electric cars is inevitable), not a question of if, just when. I have four times the value in OCA than I do in TRA because, amoung other reasons I like tailwinds a lot more than headwinds. Be interesting over the years ahead to see who gets their call right. I also think Earl Gasparich has the makings of an extremely good leader. There's something about him that I really like.
I have spoken with a few people in the know about these electric vehicles that are going to be soon is all in a hurry and they all say the same thing don’t expect it for at least another 15-20 years. We just don’t have the infrastructure to do it unless the Government helps with the rollout of it. TRA will still do well for at least another 10 years and I don’t think at that stage Percy will even care where his money is invested and by that stage TRA will have adapted. I am not a holder of TRA and love the dividend yield, but not the capital decreasing taking place over the years.

[minimoke]

I have SUM (up 58%) and OCA (up 9%) and the two combined are double my TRA (Down 6%) holding

(plus Ryman in another portfolio)

[percy]

Mowing lawns is good for you eh.

Even though my lawn mowing is actually with a line trimmer (no pristine lawns like you percy) and I generally end up cutting the berms in the whole street it is good thinking time.

Kids say get Mr Green in to do them .....lazy buggers .,,...but I say I wouldn’t have any thinking time if I didn’t do the ‘lawns’

Must go and check on the rata soon.

My daughters use Charity Mowing,[me].

[winner69]

My daughters use Charity Mowing,[me].

You’re a good soul percy

Funny how generations have changed. When I was young at home it was expected that I would mow the lawns (amongst other things) and now many like you do these things for the kids.

[percy]

I have SUM (up 58%) and OCA (up 9%) and the two combined are double my TRA (Down 6%) holding

(plus Ryman in another portfolio)

Fundamentals of TRA are sound,the future is bright,so at some point the share price will perform,then outperform.In the meantime, enjoy the quarterly fully imputed divies.I love them..

[Lewylewylewy]

A pool of self driving electric cars, can you imagine the cleaning and fixing involved? (Mile high type club, drunks, nutters, etc) not a car I'd like to take my commute in. Could work if you have your own seat that just plugs in, or seat covers or something, maybe...

The technology is there, the need is there, the people are not. It's a nice idea though.

[percy]

You’re a good soul percy

Funny how generations have changed. When I was young at home it was expected that I would mow the lawns (amongst other things) and now many like you do these things for the kids.

I also operate "Charity Urber"...……………………………………………... solely for the granddaughter.

[peat]

Its funny isn't it how insights come to you while you're away from the market.

Its not just being away from the market. Its emptying your brain while you do something a bit mindless. Its something to do with subconscious brain power reorganising the data.
I get these moments when out cycling or walking - I value them immensely.



OCA - definitely broken out of the range and while predicting is difficult and especially about the future it should easily get to 1.25 or 1.30, maybe more. support now at the 1.10-15 range
large volume from the placement could indicate a reversal but doesn't have to. as Balance said y'day its more useful as a turning point at the bottom.

[Beagle]

Agree 100% Peat, a good walk works wonders in so many ways. On OCA, Don't you love it when TA and FA line up so beautifully :)

[Lawstudent05]

1.22 all time high today

[whatsup]

$1.23 and that sounds very nice !

[Beagle]

This is going into the low - mid $1.30's within 2 months, possibly sooner. Remember you read it from me first.

[Maverick]

This is going into the low - mid $1.30's within 2 months, possibly sooner. Remember you read it from me first.
There certainly has been a lot of buying pressure since round one of the maquarie sell down was done. My humble thoughts are that the 3 broking houses who distributed the 95 million shares have started to seriuosly read about the company and someone/s are thinking " Houston....I think we have something here".

[winner69]

This is going into the low - mid $1.30's within 2 months, possibly sooner. Remember you read it from me first.

No no beagle ....you read it from me first

But I’m hoping for at least $1.40

[Beagle]

No no beagle ....you read it from me first

But I’m hoping for at least $1.40

I won't be upset if you're right lol

[percy]

Of interest.
Full moon in NZ tomorrow night.
Thought so.?...lol.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLmVR1vfZrU Winner and I in full cry :lol: It'll be a $1.50+ after that rendition :lol:

[percy]

That was dreadful...…………………………………..lol.

[RupertBear]

That was dreadful...…………………………………..lol.

I agree....and the howling Beagle will be worse tomorrow...;)

[Beagle]

I agree....and the howling Beagle will be worse tomorrow...;)

Full moon, full cry now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU :lol:
Seriously...I had a good think about this one overnight. I see about 11 cps underlying for FY19. At $1.23 that puts OCA on a current year PE of just 11.2. Long term I just think you can't go wrong buying a top reputation healthcare provider on those fundamental's. As I said last week I am very impressed with Earl Gasparich as CEO. Demographics provide strong tailwinds for this company.
Disc: Done a Couta1 now in terms of the size of my stake and Beaglized him in the process :lol:

[trader_jackson]

$1.23 - great stuff
Arvida going from cheap, to stupidly cheap

[Bjauck]

$1.23 - great stuff
Arvida going from cheap, to stupidly cheap
OCA have had a bit of SP surge recently. I already have a small holding (4% of my share portfolio) in OCA, a larger holding in SUM but nothing invested in ARV. I would like to invest more in one of ARV or OCA but cannot decide between the two. My current preference is to buy a similar size holding in ARV as my holding in OCA.

From ANZ secs:

ARV sp 1.35 nta 1.23 div yield 3.7% p/e 8.76
OCA sp 1.22 nta 0.88 div yield 3.2% p/e 9.6 (Oops it’s already gone up another cent!)

Is ARV now better value than OCA. Or has OCA got better growth prospects?

* I would be a long term investor (at least 5+yrs)

[Beagle]

Underlying profit of ARV to 31/3/18 $33m on 413.9m shares gives 7.97 cps. At $1.35 that puts them on a historical underlying PE of 16.94, similar to SUM who have a vastly longer track record of underlying profit growth.

OCA based on underlying EPS of 8.5 cps from memory even at $1.23 are trading on a historical underlying PE of 14.48.

We know its all about forward PE and I am expecting a very substantial lift in underlying EPS for OCA this year. Long term the churn rate on the care suite model is more than double that of apartments or independent living units so I am expecting long term outperformance in this sector from OCA.

T.J. will tell you ARV are very cheap but I for one am not convinced and see SUM as better value and OCA as much better value and both having at least as good or better growth prospects. SUM's strength is in its independent living model which forms the dominant part of its business.
OCA are at the other end of the spectrum focusing on late stage care. I think the two are very good complimentary holdings.

[Bjauck]

Thanks Beagle for your reply. I have only had exeperience of OCA (via family member) and have seen them developing their model over the years ...TJ and yourself are the yin-yang of ARV commentators!

[Lawstudent05]

Hi Team,

Does anyone have a Buy / Sell screenshot for OCA that they could put up?

[minimoke]

Hi Team,

Does anyone have a Buy / Sell screenshot for OCA that they could put up? Hows this for you

[Lawstudent05]

Thanks for this, some big selling at 1.23, not much after that!

[minimoke]

Thanks for this, some big selling at 1.23, not much after that!Seems fair to conclude that $1.23 is the new base. Onwards and upwards from here.

[trader_jackson]

Underlying profit of ARV to 31/3/18 $33m on 413.9m shares gives 7.97 cps. At $1.35 that puts them on a historical underlying PE of 16.94, similar to SUM who have a vastly longer track record of underlying profit growth.

OCA based on underlying EPS of 8.5 cps from memory even at $1.23 are trading on a historical underlying PE of 14.48.

We know its all about forward PE and I am expecting a very substantial lift in underlying EPS for OCA this year. Long term the churn rate on the care suite model is more than double that of apartments or independent living units so I am expecting long term outperformance in this sector from OCA.

T.J. will tell you ARV are very cheap but I for one am not convinced and see SUM as better value and OCA as much better value and both having at least as good or better growth prospects. SUM's strength is in its independent living model which forms the dominant part of its business.
OCA are at the other end of the spectrum focusing on late stage care. I think the two are very good complimentary holdings.

You are right with all your numbers - however FY18 is now the past, and FY19 will likely show ARV being a fair chunk cheaper than OCA, and possibly even sum others... It is interesting that some brokers are expecting negative EPS for OCA this year... but I am sure we will now both* agree at $1 OCA was too cheap, even with flat FY19 EPS.
We won't bother looking at other ratios as ARV is without doubt cheapest there, eg dividend yeild, price/book etc

*I say both with a * as just a year and a half ago prior to OCA listing at 79c it wasn't the both of us saying OCA was a bargain... it was just me

[Beagle]

I bought OCA at 82 cents after the IPO price settled and initial risk of the float and what might happen to the price thereafter had dissipated. One could argue on a risk adjusted basis this was a more optimal risk reward strategy than investing in the IPO itself at 79 cents. Regarding one broker I won't name who holds a negative view, even a broken clock is right twice a day but more often than not, its hopelessly inaccurate ! I don't pretend to have done any major analysis on ARV...for my money there's SUM companies with a reputation that's been earned over a long period of time based on consistent strong growth trading on a very similar multiple so that's good enough for me. Can't be everywhere in this market but good luck to you with ARV. I did have a look and formed the opinion that yield was okay but it was only a modest growth opportunity.

[couta1]

Seems fair to conclude that $1.23 is the new base. Onwards and upwards from here. Nope, it's overbought so the tide is turning back to $1.18.

[Joshuatree]

My investment advisor/ brokers hasn't changed their metrics
1 year t/p av of $1.18 from 3 analysts with 1 buy and 2 holds

4traders 2 ratings , both hold t/p $1.19
Buying at the IPO of $.79 which is still my average has been the optimal risk reward way to go imo. Will only top up if some sort of black swan event drops the mkt and OCA s/p a lot.

[Beagle]

My investment advisor/ brokers hasn't changed their metrics
1 year t/p av of $1.18 from 3 analysts with 1 buy and 2 holds

4traders 2 ratings , both hold t/p $1.19
Buying at the IPO of $.79 which is still my average has been the optimal risk reward way to go imo. Will only top up if some sort of black swan event drops the mkt and OCA s/p a lot.

That's fine...the same analysts have a consensus view on RYM of $10.60 and the SP is at a 26% premium to that last time I looked.
If we look out ten years, which company is going to do better over the long run ?, one that enjoys a 7 year cycle with its property churn and takes 20% for that or one like OCA that has a 2.5-3.0 year property churn and takes 30% for that ? Then start to consider that OCA has less than half the PE of RYM and has a second to none including RYM, reputation in late stage care and one starts to get the sense of where the future lies for capital gain.

I also like that care suites are at a much more affordable end of the market and that OCA are solely focused on the N.Z. market and not exposed to the Australian market which is currently experiencing some interesting downward price movements. SUM and now MET also considering expanding into a falling Australian housing market...Hmmm. maybe this isn't the right time ? Forbar's so called analysis predicting an EPS decrease for OCA this year is absolute rubbish in my view. For one thing they haven't even considered the dramatic uplift in development units this year.

[Timesurfer]

... the Australian market which is currently experiencing some interesting downward price movements. SUM and now MET also considering expanding into a falling Australian housing market...Hmmm. maybe this isn't the right time ?

Or is it the perfect time?
Might be some bargains going.

[minimoke]

reputation in late stage care and one starts to get the sense of where the future lies for capital gain.
I think this late stage care is worth continuously looking at. Seems to me (so I must do more research) that we are living longer and a combination of better nutrition, better housing and better healthcare / drugs will see us all living longer. But not necessarily better. Theres a train load of senior care having left the station and as each year goes by more passengers get on than get off. And those tracks lead to only one place - increased demand for senior care with dignity.

[Joshuatree]

That's fine...the same analysts have a consensus view on RYM of $10.60 and the SP is at a 26% premium to that last time I looked.
If we look out ten years, which company is going to do better over the long run ?, one that enjoys a 7 year cycle with its property churn and takes 20% for that or one like OCA that has a 2.5-3.0 year property churn and takes 30% for that ? Then start to consider that OCA has less than half the PE of RYM and has a second to none including RYM, reputation in late stage care and one starts to get the sense of where the future lies for capital gain.

I also like that care suites are at a much more affordable end of the market and that OCA are solely focused on the N.Z. market and not exposed to the Australian market which is currently experiencing some interesting downward price movements. SUM and now MET also considering expanding into a falling Australian housing market...Hmmm. maybe this isn't the right time ? Forbar's so called analysis predicting an EPS decrease for OCA this year is absolute rubbish in my view. For one thing they haven't even considered the dramatic uplift in development units this year.

One year is where im focused atm so im waiting for a far better opp to top up at decent discount. the price you pay makes the difference between a very good investment and an ordinary one. Happy with my 79c average atp, its been that very good investment due to the entry price point..