OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[mistaTea]

AIRflost is over $2 billion

And they get to keep a fair chunk of that when they cancel flights

So as Snowie says AIR has a better float than OCA ….subtle

My favorite Sky TV must have some float too I guess.

They offer annual subs for Sky Sport NOW... so all that cash up front is some awesome float eh.

Christ, now that I think about it - I can see float everywhere I look!!

[Balance]

Ever expanding is a big call, as construction costs have exploded while property prices have taken a hit as we have seen. Perhaps over the long run that figure will increase, but there are a lot of variables at play. And we should stop bandying around the term float, because I think it is incorrect and misleading.

Refit costs is another issue. Do RV operators fit the whole bill for this or do they charge departing residents for some of it?

Anyway, unlike the insurance industry (which actually does produce float, and can reinvest that money into anything they want) RV operators can only really invest their earnings (which is all the DMF is) from reselling units to build more units and hope the ponzi scheme can continue forever. In the meantime, using their earnings (plus a lot of debt) to build more units is expensive, takes a lot of time, is subject to all sorts of regulation, and depreciates.

The only companies that do produce float - insurers - have none of that. Another key difference.

But anyway, I will probably just get more -ve rep for not agreeing that OCA has float and is the most undervalued and awesome company on the NZX!

Agree with you, MT.

I have stated before and will do so again - huge assumption made by posters here that the 'float' has been profitably invested when the evidence is that it has not been in the last 2 years.

OCA along with Ryman had bought ever more expensive land and developed ever more costly RV units at a time when property values have plummeted - something that the institutional market has priced in but not so many retail investors.

Also, they have been using ever more debt to develop the new units and pay dividends as they are not generating enough cashflow to pay operating costs.

[ValueNZ]

Ever expanding is a big call, as construction costs have exploded while property prices have taken a hit as we have seen. Perhaps over the long run that figure will increase, but there are a lot of variables at play. And we should stop bandying around the term float, because I think it is incorrect and misleading.
WTF? Show me a single year where any of the major RV players have had their refundable occupational right agreement account fall. Not just "long run" it will increase, but year over year consistently.

Refit costs is another issue. Do RV operators fit the whole bill for this or do they charge departing residents for some of it?

Anyway, unlike the insurance industry (which actually does produce float, and can reinvest that money into anything they want) RV operators can only really invest their earnings (which is all the DMF is) from reselling units to build more units and hope the ponzi scheme can continue forever. In the meantime, using their earnings (plus a lot of debt) to build more units is expensive, takes a lot of time, is subject to all sorts of regulation, and depreciates.

I think you've called it a ponzi before, but it's so blatantly wrong... In a ponzi, investors are paid out using new investors money (Zero sum), where as investors in the RV industry are paid out of earnings. These RV's do not need continuous expansion to not collapse as you imply, as soon as they finish up development and sell off the remaining units watch the cash roll in.

The only companies that do produce float - insurers - have none of that. Another key difference.

Huh? Plenty of companies produce float, it is fairly rare, and none have it in the proportions that the RV industry has, but it does exist. Subscription models generate float, Roblox generates float, gift cards generate float, basically anything that collects cash before a service is given. Hell even landlords generate a small amount of float through a bond.

But anyway, I will probably just get more -ve rep for not agreeing that OCA has float and is the most undervalued and awesome company on the NZX!
Read above.

[ValueNZ]

My favorite Sky TV must have some float too I guess.

They offer annual subs for Sky Sport NOW... so all that cash up front is some awesome float eh.

Christ, now that I think about it - I can see float everywhere I look!!
Yep, never actually looked at the accounts of Sky TV, but they would generate some float.

Look at you, learning so fast!

[Daytr]

Ever expanding is a big call, as construction costs have exploded while property prices have taken a hit as we have seen. Perhaps over the long run that figure will increase, but there are a lot of variables at play. And we should stop bandying around the term float, because I think it is incorrect and misleading.

Refit costs is another issue. Do RV operators fit the whole bill for this or do they charge departing residents for some of it?

Anyway, unlike the insurance industry (which actually does produce float, and can reinvest that money into anything they want) RV operators can only really invest their earnings (which is all the DMF is) from reselling units to build more units and hope the ponzi scheme can continue forever. In the meantime, using their earnings (plus a lot of debt) to build more units is expensive, takes a lot of time, is subject to all sorts of regulation, and depreciates.

The only companies that do produce float - insurers - have none of that. Another key difference.

But anyway, I will probably just get more -ve rep for not agreeing that OCA has float and is the most undervalued and awesome company on the NZX!

The expansion I refer to is the number of units being built. This is funded by a mixture of debt, sales, resales & net DMF proceeds.

If OCA stopped building and just collected the profit from sales, resales & net DMF proceeds, they would start building the float that SailorBoy referred to and he then lept to the conclusion that they would invest this ever building float as insurance companies do.
But that's a big leap as I think it's more likely OCA would pay dividends.
Either way it would be a substantial amount of free cash over time.

[Habits]

My favorite Sky TV must have some float too I guess.

They offer annual subs for Sky Sport NOW... so all that cash up front is some awesome float eh.

Christ, now that I think about it - I can see float everywhere I look!!

Would appreciate if you dont use the C word thanks. PS dont use the muslim A word either

[ValueNZ]

deleted...

[Lego_Man]

Mohammed was certainly a man of interesting proclivities.

[Daytr]

Yep, never actually looked at the accounts of Sky TV, but they would generate some float.

Look at you, learning so fast!

Yep but if I pay for a full year's subscription rather than monthly, I pay circa 20% less.
So the 'float' as you put it, is very expensive finance.

[winner69]

Warriors 24 Sea Eagles 24 …a DRAW. Coach not entirely happy. Fans happy as a draw is almost as good as a win but they would have preferred to see the team play to full potential and have another win but next week all will see the real us v the Dragons. Sill on track for this to be our year


Oceania share price held up around 64/65 last week (actually down) so a Ho-hum week (like a draw). Fans say at least it didn’t drop too much and things still looking good and sales, sales and even more sales must be happening. Still on track to be our year and share price to go over $1

UP THE WAHS …..C’MON OCEANIA …this is our year

[Habits]

nntracknforbthisvto = on track for this to ... be our year

Am with you onbthag hehe

[winner69]

nntracknforbthisvto = on track for this to ... be our year

Am with you onbthag hehe

Sorry mate …had eye surgery the other day and seem to miss the space bar a lot

[alokdhir]

Sorry mate …had eye surgery the other day and seem to miss the space bar a lot

Too much screen time mate ...eyes are more important then enlightening masses ...take care buddy ...stay away ...we will understand :t_up:

[Habits]

Sorry mate …had eye surgery the other day and seem to miss the space bar a lot


Bugger that's eyeful, I mean awful. You take care until mended. We enjoy your witty posts W69

[Aaron]

Interesting article in the herald this morning explaining that there is not much money in care units.

Beagle and others have been telling us this for a long time.

[mistaTea]

Interesting article in the herald this morning explaining that there is not much money in care units.

Beagle and others have been telling us this for a long time.

Link?

Whoever wrote it obviously doesn’t understand float! LOL.

[alokdhir]

Interesting article in the herald this morning explaining that there is not much money in care units.

Beagle and others have been telling us this for a long time.

There is not much money but good demand for care units ...it helps selling thus increase float and so on ...not every aspect of business shud be profit centre on its own ...need see. best outcome for business as a whole....so if offering care units leads to growth then it helps ...also I believe OCA have an advantage over competitors in this area .

[Aaron]

Link?

Whoever wrote it obviously doesn’t understand float! LOL.

Can't seem to find the article on the online version. Sometimes they will print business desk articles that do not show up in the herald online.

The float would not relate to the care business, if I understand it correctly it relates to the development side. I assume the float is the chunk of money the village operators get to use while they wait for the tenants to cark it. If you have reinvested into more and more expensive land and then building more and more expensive villages paying smaller and smaller returns, I do not know if it is that big of an advantage. I guess it will over time assuming the next 30 years is like the last 30 years.

I imagine rate cuts now while inflation is still running hot would do wonders for the retirement village operators share price.

Here is a link to another article this morning. Inflation at 4% or 33% over the top end of Adrian's target or 50% over the mid range. The article is about when economists think that rates will be cut, which really is all we need to know in the world of speculating. Iranian drone strikes on Israel, that might hurry it along unless rising petrol prices push up prices generally. Bad news is good news, so Monday might be a good day for stocks.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/how-far-has-inflation-fallen-with-new-data-due-wednesday-economists-place-their-bets/ANW6B3SWFZECJPYUUWZKU3IIWI/

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429532

Sales

Oceania has had strong new sale volumes with a circa 20% increase and resale volumes have increased circa 14% over the 12 month period to 31 March 2024 compared to the twelve month period to 31 March 2023. Oceania is also pleased with increased enquiry levels compared to previous periods, as well as welcoming private paying care residents into The Helier.

Divestments

Oceania has continued progress with its divestment programme since the FY2024 interim results in November 2023, when the sale of two Auckland sites was announced. Oceania settled the sale of a parcel of land in Nelson, in December 2023, and a further three sites are currently under contract for sale, at various stages of completion. The three current transactions are on track to complete in the first quarter of FY2025. This will bring the total number of sites exited, divested and closed since the start of FY2024 to nine, with aggregate gross sales proceeds of circa $40m and in line with book value.

Developments

Oceania has completed a total of 182 development units in the 12 months to 31 March 2024. In FY2025 Oceania intends to complete deliveries of a further 224 units at Elmwood in Manurewa, Awatere in Hamilton and Waterford in Hobsonville Point.

Executive Leadership and Appointments

Two recent appointments have been made to Oceania’s Executive Team with Claire Fisher joining the team on 15 January 2024 in the role of Chief Legal and Risk Officer and Tracey Taylor on 28 February 2024 in the role of Chief People Officer. CEO Brent Pattison said “We are delighted to welcome both Claire and Tracey to the team. Both individuals bring a wealth of experience and complete the Executive Team.”

Reporting Matters

The full year financial results to 31 March 2024 will be announced to market on Friday 24 May 2024.

This announcement has been authorised for release by Oceania’s board of directors.

[thegreatestben]

Looks like they heard the message on communication

[Greekwatchdog]

WOW I am going to go have a drink. An update from this lot is worth celebrating.

[winner69]

Seems Oceania only sold about 69 new units in second half of year H224 …..new sales about the same as H223

No wonder a bit light on real detail …hopefully thinking the market will go into raptures with some big numbers

Continued growth in resales is good …..but the new sales not good.

Maverick ..am I about right …please check for me

If right you disappointed?

[ValueNZ]

Seems Oceania only sold about 69 new units in second half of year H224 …..new sales about the same as H223

No wonder a bit light on real detail …hopefully thinking the market will go into raptures with some big numbers

Continued growth in resales is good …..but the new sales not good.

Maverick ..am I about right …please check for me

If right you disappointed?
Your math is correct Winner. About 69 new sales.

[bottomfeeder]

Divestment of surplus properties for near book value. Maybe dividends will resume. I would say any rumours of a CR should now be buried for a long time. But as usual, the SP just doesnt feel the love.

[Balance]

Seems Oceania only sold about 69 new units in second half of year H224 …..new sales about the same as H223

No wonder a bit light on real detail …hopefully thinking the market will go into raptures with some big numbers

Continued growth in resales is good …..but the new sales not good.

Maverick ..am I about right …please check for me

If right you disappointed?

I make new sales to be 154 units vs 128 units in F2023 - still way down on the 184 units & 222 units in F22 and F21 respectively.

No mention of average sale price and margins - could be bad news lurking there.

[Greekwatchdog]

I make new sales to be 154 units vs 128 units in F2023 - still way down on the 184 units & 222 units in F22 and F21 respectively.

No mention of average sale price and margins - could be bad news lurking there.

Why compare F21 & F22? Market is totally different beast then too today. It was free money back then and property sector was on steroids'. Its not today

[Daytr]

I think the announcement is tracking the Wah's performance of the weekend nicely.
Sales volume reasonable considering the market, margins no doubt lower but they forecast that.

Let's call it a come from behind draw.
Golden point to come at the end of May.

[bull....]

pretty average , at least they did a update that's an improvement. margin update would have been good

[winner69]

Property market not too bad last quarter. Number of sales in March 24 Qtr v Dec 23 Qtr were UP (REINZ data)

So comparing March 24 Qtr v Dec 23 for RV outfits

Number of New Sales -
ARV UP
OCA DOWN
SUM UP

Number of Resales -
ARV UP
OCA DOWN
SUM UP

Property showed a bit more life in March quarter. ARV and SUM saw more sales than December but OCA have reported less sales.

Supply not an issue as all say they have plenty of stock on hand

Something not quite right with OCA selling less while others are selling more. I'm trying to make sense of it but struggling.

Wonder why that's why Brent was a bit vague in the announcement ...almost a non announcement ...but it keep me occupied for a while ...and Speedy Az still got his walk.

No RYM numbers yet

[winner69]

One thing about PR companies is they can produce glowing reports out of not very good news …and One Plus One is one of best outfits around.

They sure did a good job for Oceania this time

[winner69]

Share price down today

But then majority of stocks are down today

Even BAI is down …but BLT is up on their announcement

[bottomfeeder]

Strange scenario. Bond Interest rates down, and all the SPs are down. It's War on the horizon. You would think NZ is just about as far as you can get from the effects of war, that money would be pouring into NZ.

[ronaldson]

Not the most exciting announcement for holders but the main positive for me is that the strategy of divesting facilities which provide only care beds or are signifiicantly overweight with care beds and lack future development opportunity continues to be implemented, even if in three instances settlement will occur in the current quarter (Q1 FY25).

NZ's economic circumstances are clearly such that spending on the aged care bed subsidy will be significantly constrained for the foreseeable future and as the Herald article today confirms will not provide a realistic return on capital invested. And, dare I say it, nurses are being "rerated" in terms of remuneration entitlement but that exascerbates the problem for sector operators. So the approach by the listed RV entities is sensible/pragmatic in context. But the pivot away takes time, incurs costs, and is sensitive to manage. I think the FY25 financial statements will better disclose the net benefits of such actions to OCA.

We will have to wait until May to find out how it has really been in FY24.

[ValueNZ]

OCA down 6c from 67c last Tuesday. Who doesn't like a good bit of volatility :t_up:

Going to get in another buy order asap.

[mistaTea]

OCA down 6c from 67c last Tuesday. Who doesn't like a good bit of volatility :t_up:

Going to get in another buy order asap.

I immediately think of the legendary Phaedrus when I see this.

[Bjauck]

Strange scenario. Bond Interest rates down, and all the SPs are down. It's War on the horizon. You would think NZ is just about as far as you can get from the effects of war, that money would be pouring into NZ.
The small NZ sharemarket is a frontier market, not a safe haven. And OCA is a frontier stock, that has legacy “public care” beds, with a right wing government with a policy of reducing taxes; constraining public spending. So OCA would have to produce a Very good update just to stand still. Even under the previous leftist govt, public care beds were a liability.

Whither poor oldies in the future?

[Daytr]

OCA down 6c from 67c last Tuesday. Who doesn't like a good bit of volatility :t_up:

Going to get in another buy order asap.

Are you now trading this stock?

[ValueNZ]

Are you now trading this stock?
No I am not.

[850man]

Well the market took to today's update like a cup of cold sick... down 3c or 4.69%

[Rawz]

Well the market took to today's update like a cup of cold sick... down 3c or 4.69%

Whole market down on what i assume is geo political risks.

[bull....]

OCA down 6c from 67c last Tuesday. Who doesn't like a good bit of volatility :t_up:

Going to get in another buy order asap.

rich studend eh
how much pocket money you spending each time

[ValueNZ]

rich studend eh
how much pocket money you spending each time
Not pocket money lol, I have a part time job whilst studying at uni.

1k each transaction usually.

[mistaTea]

Not pocket money lol, I have a part time job whilst studying at uni.

1k each transaction usually.

What platform are you using? What are the fees?

[ValueNZ]

What platform are you using? What are the fees?
ASB securities for NZX purchases (so only OCA). They are $15 for $1000, $30 over $1000 but less than $10000, and 0.3% for anything above that. Yes, that's more generally more expensive than Sharesies but I wanted to be able to participate in the DRP program. ASB is probably a bit cheaper than Jarden Direct for me (only spending 1k each time), but Jarden Direct is cheaper for anyone making decent sized trades.

I use Interactive Brokers for everything else. Nothing is cheaper than IBKR I think.

Edit:

15033

[mistaTea]

ASB securities for NZX purchases (so only OCA). They are $15 for 1000, $30 over 1000 but less than 10000, and 0.3% for anything above that. Yes, that's more generally more expensive than Sharesies but I wanted to be able to participate in the DRP program. ASB is probably a bit cheaper than Jarden Direct for me (only spending 1k each time), but Jarden Direct is cheaper for anyone making decent sized trades.

I use Interactive Brokers for everything else. Nothing is cheaper than IBKR I think.

Edit:

15033

That’s still 1.5% a pop. Trying to beat the indexes by 1.5% long term will be hard. Most professionals can’t do it.

As Bogle would say, fees matter.

[mistaTea]

That’s still 1.5% a pop. Trying to beat the indexes by 1.5% long term will be hard. Most professionals can’t do it.

As Bogle would say, fees matter.

Yes IBKR is dirty cheap.

[ValueNZ]

That’s still 1.5% a pop. Trying to beat the indexes by 1.5% long term will be hard. Most professionals can’t do it.

As Bogle would say, fees matter.
Very true. I need to consider whether I need to save up more each time (say 5-10k) and risk having the share price run upward, or continue what I'm doing. Cheers.

[thegreatestben]

I wouldn't sweat it too much ValueNZ, at your age I was busy buying carparts and motorcycles and haven't really got anything show for it than memories. I hope you keep making posts at 25, 30, 35 years of age etc, not to rub peoples faces in it but showing that you don't have get it perfect, you just have to stick to it and start as early as possible.

[Ferg]

Looking at the numbers released today, here are the volumes per half year (HY) and the Year on Year % change (YoY%):

15035

In summary H1 was up 13%, H2 was up 19% and the full year is up 16%. 2 minor red flags being the relatively low number of new sales in H2 at 69 (up 2 on last year) and the 182 new units developed in FY24 versus 153 new sales. This points to more stock build for new units. Hard to say for the resales stocks given we don't know the number of departures.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars brief review

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations. 2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current subdued housing market. While recent commentary on its ‘The Helier’ development has been constructive, it appears the remainder of its new sales inventory is proving a tougher sell in the current housing market. But OCA continues to hold prices steady, and any uptick in sales activity is likely the positive catalyst the stock needs to sell its inventory and reduce debt. We still remain of the view that net debt should fall in FY25 and see this update more as a delay in its turnaround rather than a cancellation. Encouragingly, further non-core site sales at book value provide further support to its book valuation. OCA trades at ~0.45x book value and we retain our OUTPERFORM rating.

What's changed?




Earnings: FY24/FY25/FY26 underlying earnings down -24%/-9%/-4% on slower new sales
Target price: Decreased to NZ$0.95 (from NZ$1.02) due to lower annuity EBITDA and higher net debt.


New sales — solid sales at The Helier, softer elsewhere


OCA reported 2H24 new sales comfortably below our expectations, this is despite solid sales at its flagship The Helier development. In February OCA stated in news articles it had applications for/had sold 20 apartments and four care suites at The Helier, up from six in November (only one was settled in 1H24). These sales achieved in the six months since opening constitute ~25% of the apartments at The Helier. We believe this is a solid result, however, this implies OCA sold ~50 units from its other new sales inventory of ~330 units in 2H24. We view this as soft despite volatility in new sales period to period and the current subdued housing market backdrop.

Sales of non-core sites at book value encouraging


OCA's sale of three further non-core sites and a land parcel at book value is encouraging. This provides another data point to support the book valuations; with OCA trading at less than half its total book value we see valuation as attractive. It had seven sites held for sale at its 1H24 result and has sold four of these over the period (only one land parcel settled in 2H24). Of the NZ$40m in proceeds achieved, NZ$13m was received in 1H24, we estimate ~NZ$2m will be received in 2H24 and the remainder in 1H25.

Build rate guidance in-line, net debt higher on lower sales proceeds


OCA's FY24 deliveries and FY25 build rate guidance were in-line with our expectations and company commentary at its 1H24 result. As a result of the soft sales our net debt estimate increases and we move our expectation of peak net debt forward six months from 1H24 to FY24. Unsold new stock remains elevated for OCA and any pick up in housing market turnover will likely be the catalyst needed to sell through this and drive: (1) a reduction in net debt, (2) an uplift in earnings, and (3) a likely re-rating of the stock.

[Daytr]

So they are valuing OCA at 94 - 95c, pretty similar to my valuation of 99c.

Operational performance will be key.
Are they operating at a profit?

[winner69]

As one who can extrapolate from incomplete information my forecast F24 Underlying Profit is $60.1m ...slightly more than F23 ...even though they sold heaps more

Difference between me and Forbars $45.6m extrapolation is my development gains number is a lot higher than their’s

Come end of way all will be revealed

[Balance]

For Bars brief review

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations. 2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current subdued housing market. While recent commentary on its ‘The Helier’ development has been constructive, it appears the remainder of its new sales inventory is proving a tougher sell in the current housing market. But OCA continues to hold prices steady, and any uptick in sales activity is likely the positive catalyst the stock needs to sell its inventory and reduce debt. We still remain of the view that net debt should fall in FY25 and see this update more as a delay in its turnaround rather than a cancellation. Encouragingly, further non-core site sales at book value provide further support to its book valuation. OCA trades at ~0.45x book value and we retain our OUTPERFORM rating.

What's changed?




Earnings: FY24/FY25/FY26 underlying earnings down -24%/-9%/-4% on slower new sales
Target price: Decreased to NZ$0.95 (from NZ$1.02) due to lower annuity EBITDA and higher net debt.


New sales — solid sales at The Helier, softer elsewhere


OCA reported 2H24 new sales comfortably below our expectations, this is despite solid sales at its flagship The Helier development. In February OCA stated in news articles it had applications for/had sold 20 apartments and four care suites at The Helier, up from six in November (only one was settled in 1H24). These sales achieved in the six months since opening constitute ~25% of the apartments at The Helier. We believe this is a solid result, however, this implies OCA sold ~50 units from its other new sales inventory of ~330 units in 2H24. We view this as soft despite volatility in new sales period to period and the current subdued housing market backdrop.

Sales of non-core sites at book value encouraging


OCA's sale of three further non-core sites and a land parcel at book value is encouraging. This provides another data point to support the book valuations; with OCA trading at less than half its total book value we see valuation as attractive. It had seven sites held for sale at its 1H24 result and has sold four of these over the period (only one land parcel settled in 2H24). Of the NZ$40m in proceeds achieved, NZ$13m was received in 1H24, we estimate ~NZ$2m will be received in 2H24 and the remainder in 1H25.

Build rate guidance in-line, net debt higher on lower sales proceeds


OCA's FY24 deliveries and FY25 build rate guidance were in-line with our expectations and company commentary at its 1H24 result. As a result of the soft sales our net debt estimate increases and we move our expectation of peak net debt forward six months from 1H24 to FY24. Unsold new stock remains elevated for OCA and any pick up in housing market turnover will likely be the catalyst needed to sell through this and drive: (1) a reduction in net debt, (2) an uplift in earnings, and (3) a likely re-rating of the stock.


In other words, another profit downgrade.

And if I recall correctly, the 'solid sales' at its flagship The Helier were actually negotiations (or words to that effect) for 20 apartment sales?

[Daytr]

As one who can extrapolate from incomplete information my forecast F24 Underlying Profit is $60.1m ...slightly more than F23 ...even though they sold heaps more

Difference between me and Forbars $45.6m extrapolation is my development gains number is a lot higher than their’s

Come end of way all will be revealed

Yeah I am referring to operational profit, not profit from builds and resales etc.

[winner69]

Yeah I am referring to operational profit, not profit from builds and resales etc.

If operational profit means day to day profit from looking after people and running villages no doubt it will be a LOSS …but we’ll never know

But as long as the float has grown no worries eh

[ValueNZ]

That’s still 1.5% a pop. Trying to beat the indexes by 1.5% long term will be hard. Most professionals can’t do it.

As Bogle would say, fees matter.
Just coming back to this, realised you meant beating an index 1.5% YoY which is absolutely not true.

The 1.5% is just a transaction fee not a yearly fee.

To beat a hypothetical return of an index at a 8% CAGR over 30 years, I would need to generate a return of at least 8.06% CAGR after that 1.5% transaction fee at the start.

[ValueNZ]

I wouldn't sweat it too much ValueNZ, at your age I was busy buying carparts and motorcycles and haven't really got anything show for it than memories. I hope you keep making posts at 25, 30, 35 years of age etc, not to rub peoples faces in it but showing that you don't have get it perfect, you just have to stick to it and start as early as possible.
Cheers man.

Nothing wrong with making memories either. I just derive a lot of satisfaction from the process of investing and learning about companies, so it's hard for me to justify spending money on cars and other things.

[ValueNZ]

So regular 8c EPS seems likely? Thats an earnings yield of 13.1% (0.08/0.61).

That plus growth of the float around likely ~12%, it's really hard to complain too much.

That's despite being in a depressed property market.

[Rawz]

So regular 8c EPS seems likely? Thats an earnings yield of 13.1% (0.08/0.61).

That plus growth of the float around likely ~12%, it's really hard to complain too much.

That's despite being in a depressed property market.

You need to have a look at TWR and their float. EPS and float forecast to grow quicker than OCA. And their earnings yield is 16% based on recent forbar research.

[Daytr]

If operational profit means day to day profit from looking after people and running villages no doubt it will be a LOSS …but we’ll never know

But as long as the float has grown no worries eh

The way I look at it. If, and I say if the day to day operations is running at a loss it eats into the profit made from DMF, sales, resales etc.

[mistaTea]

Just coming back to this, realised you meant beating an index 1.5% YoY which is absolutely not true.

The 1.5% is just a transaction fee not a yearly fee.

To beat a hypothetical return of an index at a 8% CAGR over 30 years, I would need to generate a return of at least 8.06% CAGR after that 1.5% transaction fee at the start.

I was making an assumption that you are buying shares at $1K a pop throughout the year, every year.

But yes you are right, because the fee is ‘one and done’ each time you execute a BUY order it only pings you for that year in terms of being a drag on your return.

ASB (and all the others) are expensive.

[Balance]

The way I look at it. If, and I say if the day to day operations is running at a loss it eats into the profit made from DMF, sales, resales etc.

A cursory glance of OCA's financials will tell anyone (except you obviously) that OCA runs its day to day operations at a loss - especially cash flow wise.

And that the company had been using debt to pay dividends and cover the day to day operating losses.

[mistaTea]

For Bars brief review

Oceania Healthcare's (OCA) FY24 sales update was below our expectations. 2H24 sales softened from a solid 1H24 and is illustrative of the current subdued housing market. While recent commentary on its ‘The Helier’ development has been constructive, it appears the remainder of its new sales inventory is proving a tougher sell in the current housing market. But OCA continues to hold prices steady, and any uptick in sales activity is likely the positive catalyst the stock needs to sell its inventory and reduce debt. We still remain of the view that net debt should fall in FY25 and see this update more as a delay in its turnaround rather than a cancellation. Encouragingly, further non-core site sales at book value provide further support to its book valuation. OCA trades at ~0.45x book value and we retain our OUTPERFORM rating.

What's changed?




Earnings: FY24/FY25/FY26 underlying earnings down -24%/-9%/-4% on slower new sales
Target price: Decreased to NZ$0.95 (from NZ$1.02) due to lower annuity EBITDA and higher net debt.


New sales — solid sales at The Helier, softer elsewhere


OCA reported 2H24 new sales comfortably below our expectations, this is despite solid sales at its flagship The Helier development. In February OCA stated in news articles it had applications for/had sold 20 apartments and four care suites at The Helier, up from six in November (only one was settled in 1H24). These sales achieved in the six months since opening constitute ~25% of the apartments at The Helier. We believe this is a solid result, however, this implies OCA sold ~50 units from its other new sales inventory of ~330 units in 2H24. We view this as soft despite volatility in new sales period to period and the current subdued housing market backdrop.

Sales of non-core sites at book value encouraging


OCA's sale of three further non-core sites and a land parcel at book value is encouraging. This provides another data point to support the book valuations; with OCA trading at less than half its total book value we see valuation as attractive. It had seven sites held for sale at its 1H24 result and has sold four of these over the period (only one land parcel settled in 2H24). Of the NZ$40m in proceeds achieved, NZ$13m was received in 1H24, we estimate ~NZ$2m will be received in 2H24 and the remainder in 1H25.

Build rate guidance in-line, net debt higher on lower sales proceeds


OCA's FY24 deliveries and FY25 build rate guidance were in-line with our expectations and company commentary at its 1H24 result. As a result of the soft sales our net debt estimate increases and we move our expectation of peak net debt forward six months from 1H24 to FY24. Unsold new stock remains elevated for OCA and any pick up in housing market turnover will likely be the catalyst needed to sell through this and drive: (1) a reduction in net debt, (2) an uplift in earnings, and (3) a likely re-rating of the stock.


Got my Personal AIssistant to dig into the FBar commentary for me since I am just too damned busy being lazy.

You are all very welcome.

*********
FBar's commentary on Oceania Healthcare's (OCA.NZ) fiscal year 2024 (FY24) sales update provides a nuanced perspective on the company's recent performance and future prospects. The critique below examines the strengths and weaknesses of their analysis:


Strengths of the Commentary:


1. Detailed Contextual Analysis:
- FBar adeptly sets the context by comparing the second half of the fiscal year's sales performance with the first half, highlighting a softening market. This comparison is crucial for understanding the cyclical nature of real estate and healthcare facility sales, particularly in a subdued housing market.


2. Specific Development Insight:
- The commentary provides specific insights into ‘The Helier’ development, which is useful for investors focusing on granular details of OCA’s portfolio. Mentioning particular developments helps in assessing the company's strategic focus and execution.


3. Balanced View on Sales Strategy:
- FBar notes that OCA has maintained steady prices despite the challenging market, which is a positive signal about the management's confidence in their product and pricing strategy. This could be seen as a strength in maintaining value over simply pushing volumes.


4. Forward-Looking Statements:
- The analysis remains optimistic about OCA's ability to reduce debt in FY25, suggesting a temporary delay rather than a long-term issue. This forward-looking, yet cautious optimism provides a balanced outlook which is essential for long-term investors.


5. Valuation Highlight:
- Pointing out OCA’s trading status at approximately 0.45 times book value offers a clear metric for valuation which potential investors can use as a benchmark for assessing whether the stock might be undervalued.


Weaknesses of the Commentary:


1. Lack of Comparative Analysis:
- While the update discusses current issues with sales, it lacks a comparative analysis with peers in the industry. Understanding how competitors are performing under similar market conditions would provide a more comprehensive view of OCA’s relative performance.


2. Underemphasis on Risks:
- The commentary could benefit from a more detailed discussion on the risks associated with maintaining high prices in a soft market. There is a risk that steady prices could lead to a prolonged period of high inventory if the market does not rebound or if consumer sentiment worsens.


3. Assumptions on Market Recovery:
- FBar’s commentary assumes an uptick in sales without delving deeply into the catalysts or market conditions necessary for this recovery. This oversight can lead to an overly optimistic outlook without sufficient grounding in market realities.


4. Vague on Non-Core Asset Sales:
- The mention of non-core site sales at book value provides some positive news, but lacks detail on the potential impact of these sales on the overall financial health or strategic positioning of OCA.


5. General Statements on Turnaround:
- The analysis concludes with a somewhat vague affirmation of a delayed turnaround. More specifics on what this turnaround entails or the strategic steps OCA intends to take would provide a clearer picture.


Conclusion:


FBar's commentary on Oceania Healthcare provides a fundamentally sound, albeit somewhat optimistic, outlook on the company’s financial health and market position. The analysis excels in detailing the current sales environment and maintaining a balanced view on future prospects. However, it could be improved with a more thorough risk analysis, comparative industry context, and detailed strategic insights. These additions would offer a more rounded and critically robust analysis for potential investors.

[Daytr]

A cursory glance of OCA's financials will tell anyone (except you obviously) that OCA runs its day to day operations at a loss - especially cash flow wise.

And that the company had been using debt to pay dividends and cover the day to day operating losses.

Duh!
I am talking about the Financials due to be released at the end of May, not history.
And I have basically assumed that they are probably still running at a loss, but I prefer to have my information confirmed.

[Snow Leopard]

The way I look at it. If, and I say if the day to day operations is running at a loss it eats into the profit made from DMF, sales, resales etc.

The DMF is part of the operational income. There is no profit on DMF if there is no operational profit.

[ronaldson]

The DMF subsidises the care component.

I think the reason RV listed entities do not breakdown revenue and expenses in their accounts between their two main activities is that it would be clear how profitable 30% DMF actually is in context and that margin would come under pressure from consumer advocates, especially given Ryman have moved to 20%.

[Daytr]

The DMF is part of the operational income. There is no profit on DMF if there is no operational profit.

The DMF is the 30% charged on buyback, not operational.

Day to day operating costs I refer to is running the actual village, I.e day to day costs less fees paid by the occupier.

[ronaldson]

Ironic that the much pined for update has taken any recent gloss off the share price.

Hard to see the actual result, when announced next month, can now do much to fire this up. At least another six months before we see the light in my view. But on-market volume is always there so folk on both sides of the fence.

[winner69]

Claims depressed property market etc etc holding back sales is a red herring to me

If REINZ reported property volumes is a proxy for market activity the last six months has been pretty strong. Market may not be as active as a few years ago but volumes are heading back to average.

The last six months to March volume sales across the country were 22% more than pcp….and that’s reflected in ARV and SUM sales but not OCA’s

Table shows growth in sales for ARV, OCA and SUM compared to general activity in NZ property market

What's happened to OCA new sales over last 6 months ...the 3% stands out as a real outlier eh ...something not right

[winner69]

Ironic that the much pined for update has taken any recent gloss off the share price.

Hard to see the actual result, when announced next month, can now do much to fire this up. At least another six months before we see the light in my view. But on-market volume is always there so folk on both sides of the fence.

That wasn’t really an update ron ….biggest non-announcement I’ve ever seen. Just confirms that shareholders/market per se aren’t part of their stakeholder thinking

If they thought they need to improve communication with shareholders they need to improve a lot

Big fail imho

[ValueNZ]

Ironic that the much pined for update has taken any recent gloss off the share price.

Hard to see the actual result, when announced next month, can now do much to fire this up. At least another six months before we see the light in my view. But on-market volume is always there so folk on both sides of the fence.
All good by me. Another 6 months of accumulation in the low 60c range would be great. Even better if it's in the 50c range.

Good things take time. Less new sales now just means more sales in the future, I have no doubt that OCA will eventually sell down this ocean of unsold stock. The market overreacting to this is something to take advantage of.

[Snow Leopard]

The DMF is the 30% charged on buyback, not operational.

Day to day operating costs I refer to is running the actual village, I.e day to day costs less fees paid by the occupier.

This is one of the weird beliefs (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-OCA-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=1047864&highlight=#post1047864) that I mentioned a while ago.

I refer you to the 2023 FY accounts [link (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/411936/395032.pdf)] page 46, Note 2.2 and particularly the third paragraph (top of right hand column) of the Deferred Management Fees part.

[Daytr]

This is one of the weird beliefs (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-OCA-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=1047864&highlight=#post1047864) that I mentioned a while ago.

I refer you to the 2023 FY accounts [link (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/411936/395032.pdf)] page 46, Note 2.2 and particularly the third paragraph (top of right hand column) of the Deferred Management Fees part.

I read what you referred to and it doesn't change anything imo.
In 2023 OCA earned $39M in DMF and $9M in village service fees.

The average tenure of a unit is 7 years.
1800 units ÷ by 7 years is 257 per year.
$39M ÷ 257 is $152k .
I.e net of refurbishment costs they retain $152k of the 30% of DMF.

The $9M effectively equates to each unit paying $100/week for services.

Thoughts?

[winner69]

Looking at DMF for F23

In revenues there is $70.2m of DFM (accrued). Add care fees, village fees and other stuff total revenue was $247m (including DMF)

Underlying NPAT was $58.5m which included realised gains on sales/resales of $59.3m.

This implies that day to day operations ran at a small loss

Which also implies that all DMF was consumed ……all gone to help pay for looking after and caring for people and contributing to HQ overheads. Nothing left over. It was a fee after all (paid advance);and not really an ‘asset’.

That’s how I see it anyway…in simple abbreviated way

This is how i still see things

[Daytr]

This is how i still see things

Yep makes sense.
And if margins on new sales are also being squeezed that will dent the overall profit.

[Habits]

"Underlying NPAT was $58.5m which included realised gains on sales/resales of $59.3m."

Without the sales and resales there would have been nothing left. The 2022/23 FY was a tough time for housing and property in general

[Baa_Baa]

"Underlying NPAT was $58.5m which included realised gains on sales/resales of $59.3m."

Without the sales and resales there would have been nothing left. The 2022/23 FY was a tough time for housing and property in general

Finally, the realisation is dawning that it's all about sales sales sales, and yes, H2 is a big disappointment, but overall +20% is encouraging. And I don't care about the excuses, there are RV's that are proving that the 'market' is there for RV sales, it's just that OCA aren't getting their share of it lately. And they need it, with such a large backlog of saleable property and a development pipeline that will just add to the backlog.

Something has to change, not just the CEO. The Board has a few very large investor shareholders, surely they must be wondering when the strategy will turn into ROI on their investment? None of the RV's pay even barely respectable ROI (dividends), let alone capital growth. All of them need to realise the market has changed and growth at all costs to investors, is not sustainable anymore. It's time for payback. And it's easy, relatively, to make that happen. The levers to produce investor/owner/shareholder returns are very simple to implement, albeit they take some time to take effect.

What this company doesn't seem to get, and maybe the whole sector doesn't get yet, is who they're working for. It's it's the owners that they work for, the shareholders, and it's not at all unreasonable IMO to expect a decent ROI, EPS, which none of them provide, none of them.

[Daytr]

Finally, the realisation is dawning that it's all about sales sales sales, and yes, H2 is a big disappointment, but overall +20% is encouraging. And I don't care about the excuses, there are RV's that are proving that the 'market' is there for RV sales, it's just that OCA aren't getting their share of it lately. And they need it, with such a large backlog of saleable property and a development pipeline that will just add to the backlog.

Something has to change, not just the CEO. The Board has a few very large investor shareholders, surely they must be wondering when the strategy will turn into ROI on their investment? None of the RV's pay even barely respectable ROI (dividends), let alone capital growth. All of them need to realise the market has changed and growth at all costs to investors, is not sustainable anymore. It's time for payback. And it's easy, relatively, to make that happen. The levers to produce investor/owner/shareholder returns are very simple to implement, albeit they take some time to take effect.

What this company doesn't seem to get, and maybe the whole sector doesn't get yet, is who they're working for. It's it's the owners that they work for, the shareholders, and it's not at all unreasonable IMO to expect a decent ROI, EPS, which none of them provide, none of them.

Well there are discounted sales & sales.
With the amount of time & capital used for each build, you want to ensure you are getting a reasonable return, especially seeing they probably are losing money operationally, something that cannot continue, despite what SailorBoy used espouse.

If OCA'S sales compared to competitors are down but margins higher I wouldn't have such a problem, as they still have the units to sell.
If they have reduced margins the same or more than others, then I have a problem.

[winner69]

UPDATE FROM WARRIORS (Price Sensitive)

The Warriors are pleased to report that after seven games into the season they have had 4 wins and a draw which is about on par with 5 wins at same time last season

The Warriors are also pleased with the increased excitement from fans since they embraced the UP THE WAHS chant

The Warriors continue to build the strength of the team and will continue to do so through 2025

The Warriors welcomed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to the team at beginning of the season. Coach Andrew Webster said ‘We are delighted to welcome Roger back to the team. He bring a wealth of experience and dynamism to the team leadership’

The Warriors will provide another update late May

[Snoopy]

UPDATE FROM WARRIORS (Price Sensitive)

The Warriors are pleased to report that after seven games into the season they have had 4 wins and a draw which is about on par with 5 wins at same time last season

The Warriors are also pleased with the increased excitement from fans since they embraced the UP THE WAHS chant

The Warriors continue to build the strength of the team and will continue to do so through 2025

The Warriors welcomed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to the team at beginning of the season. Coach Andrew Webster said ‘We are delighted to welcome Roger back to the team. He bring a wealth of experience and dynamism to the team leadership’

The Warriors will provide another update late May

Where can I buy shares in these up and coming Warriors? I looked up under the WAH ticker on the NZX and couldn't find it? Someone said to me, no it isn't under that ticker - you have to look under OCA. I wasn't sure what that acronym might stand for: 'Other Capable Athletes'? As an ESG investor I may have had access to them filtered out by my access bot. I don't think Sam Stubbs from Simplicity would tolerate an investment in the Warriors, as they black list stuff connected to the military.

Did a bit of a news search and found that OCA has a head coach called 'Brent'. Is Brent a particularly violent man?

SNOOPY

[Balance]

34m shares traded yesterday so pretty much bang on with the calculation of the number of shares to be exited indeed.

Same broker contact made the point to me yesterday that they estimated that of the 21m shares traded since the MSCI index announcement, most of the stock were either shorts or institutional sell down.

Obviously, their selldown were done in anticipation of a much lower price yesterday to cover shorts or portfolio reset.

And they have done well -sp was 70c when MSCI announcement was made - so a nice 15.7% gain and progressively lower gains for those who sold at 70c etc etc and have reset or covered at 59c yesterday.

Where does the sp go from here?

His view is that the sp will go back to 65c and then, the traders who got set at 59c will take their profit. Then, industry & company specific developments and fundamentals will take over to determine the next price level until OCA reports its results.

Happy trading, folks!

Pretty bang on with the post index selldown share price action - sp actually went as high as 66c for a couple of days and back towards 59c after the update.

Will find out what my broker contact says about the update and likely sp action before the results in May when they return from holiday next week.

At this stage, given the disappointing new sales update, OCA better not report reduced sales value and reduced margins in the results!

Those who took up the CR in 2021 at $1.30 must be wondering if they should be buying more at the current level to 'average' down? :scared:

[X-men]

This dog is sick as

[Balance]

This dog is sick as

Not sick - just needs sales, sales and more sales at good margins.

Especially at The Helier.

[ValueNZ]

And it's easy, relatively, to make that happen. The levers to produce investor/owner/shareholder returns are very simple to implement, albeit they take some time to take effect.
Yes, the question becomes whether to
A, finish up development and put all future cash inflow from new occupational right agreements into stocks and or bonds (Safest option, over 8 years investors today are looking probably at a 30%+ CAGR)
B, continue full steam ahead with development, under the assumption growing demand will allow for both the existing stock and newly developed stock to be sold down (This option possibly has the best outcome for investors, but is built on the assumption that stock doesn't just keep growing)
C, some combination of the both.

That's how I see it anyway, I prefer option C.

[Daytr]

Yes, the question becomes whether to
A, finish up development and put all future cash inflow from new occupational right agreements into stocks and or bonds (Safest option, over 8 years investors today are looking probably at a 30%+ CAGR)
B, continue full steam ahead with development, under the assumption growing demand will allow for both the existing stock and newly developed stock to be sold down (This option possibly has the best outcome for investors, but is built on the assumption that stock doesn't just keep growing)
C, some combination of the both.

That's how I see it anyway, I prefer option C.

You seem to be forgetting something.
Even if they finished their current units in development, sold them and then ceased all further developments the funds wouldn't cover the outstanding debt, in fact I would say it's $200M short.

They are then relying on the DMF from resales which my increase to around $50M a year.
But then they are operating at a small loss.

So where is the pool of funds to start investing?
They need to start operating at a profit.

[mistaTea]

Man, everyone buying now is going to at least double their money no matter what.

My computer told me so.

Stock Prediction Under Different Scenarios: Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA.NZ)


Scenario-Based Stock Price Prediction for OCA.NZ:


Current Market Context:
Oceania Healthcare Limited (Ticker: OCA.NZ) operates in the healthcare and retirement village sectors in New Zealand, which are influenced by demographics, government policy, and economic conditions. Let's explore how various scenarios could impact OCA.NZ's stock price.


Scenarios Considered:
1. Aging Population
- Assumption: Continued growth in the elderly population increases demand for retirement village units and aged care services.
- Impact on OCA.NZ: Positive, as an aging demographic directly benefits Oceania Healthcare’s core business model.


2. Changes in Government Healthcare Funding:
- Assumption: The New Zealand government alters funding or policies related to elder care and retirement services.
- Impact on OCA.NZ: Variable; increased funding would be positive, while cuts or restrictive policies could pose challenges.


3. Economic Recovery Post-COVID-19:
- Assumption: New Zealand's economy recovers steadily from the COVID-19 downturn, improving overall consumer confidence and spending capacity.
- Impact on OCA.NZ: Positive, as economic uplift generally increases disposable income and the ability for older citizens to invest in retirement living options.


4. Increased Competition in Healthcare Sector:
- Assumption: More competitors emerge in the retirement and aged care sector, offering new technologies or competitive pricing.
- Impact on OCA.NZ: Negative in the short-term due to price pressures and market share dilution, but could be positive if it spurs innovation within Oceania Healthcare.


Predicted Stock Price Range Under Each Scenario:
- Aging Population Scenario: Potential price range of NZ$1.40 - NZ$1.60.
- Changes in Government Healthcare Funding Scenario: Potential price range of NZ$1.20 - NZ$1.50 depending on the nature of policy changes.
- Economic Recovery Post-COVID-19 Scenario: Potential price range of NZ$1.30 - NZ$1.50.
- Increased Competition in Healthcare Sector Scenario: Potential price range of NZ$1.00 - NZ$1.20.


These predictions consider how different macroeconomic, demographic, and competitive scenarios might impact Oceania Healthcare's stock price. However, the actual future prices will be influenced by specific developments and broader market dynamics at the time.


Conclusion:
Investors should use these scenario analyses to inform their investment decisions, alongside keeping abreast of New Zealand's economic indicators, healthcare policies, and competitive landscape changes in the healthcare sector. Maintaining a diversified portfolio and staying updated with sector-specific news will help mitigate risks associated with investments in OCA.NZ.

[Getty]

Where can I buy shares in these up and coming Warriors? I looked up under the WAH ticker on the NZX and couldn't find it? Someone said to me, no it isn't under that ticker - you have to look under OCA. I wasn't sure what that acronym might stand for: 'Other Capable Athletes'? As an ESG investor I may have had access to them filtered out by my access bot. I don't think Sam Stubbs from Simplicity would tolerate an investment in the Warriors, as they black list stuff connected to the military.

Did a bit of a news search and found that OCA has a head coach called 'Brent'. Is Brent a particularly violent man?

SNOOPY
So it seems Andrew Webster of the Wahs is now coaching the OCA's.

Bring on the Kiwi tests!

[peat]

Man, everyone buying now is going to at least double their money no matter what.

My computer told me so.

Stock Prediction Under Different Scenarios: Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA.NZ)


Co Pilot version


15047

[Balance]

You seem to be forgetting something.
Even if they finished their current units in development, sold them and then ceased all further developments the funds wouldn't cover the outstanding debt, in fact I would say it's $200M short.

They are then relying on the DMF from resales which my increase to around $50M a year.
But then they are operating at a small loss.

So where is the pool of funds to start investing?
They need to start operating at a profit.

Few companies (HLG, BGP and STU come to mind) operate with zero debt - in fact, a prudent level of debt optimizes shareholders' returns by lowering the cost of capital.

So it is unrealistic to expect OCA to operate with zero debt and as a property development and investment company, it shouldn't.

The issue for OCA is what should be an appropriate and prudent level of debt.

If you look at OCA's transformative strategy, I believe it has been poorly executed - case in point, I believe that The Helier was a bridge too far for OCA which moved into the super-premium RV market without proper appraisal of how a property downturn would impact on its financials. It used debt to outbid and purchase very expensive land in Kohimarama and a very costly development which is now sapping cash flow and incurring interest costs with diminishing returns.

[ValueNZ]

Few companies (HLG, BGP and STU come to mind) operate with zero debt - in fact, a prudent level of debt optimizes shareholders' returns by lowering the cost of capital.

So it is unrealistic to expect OCA to operate with zero debt and as a property development and investment company, it shouldn't.

The issue for OCA is what should be an appropriate and prudent level of debt.

If you look at OCA's transformative strategy, I believe it has been poorly executed - case in point, I believe that The Helier was a bridge too far for OCA which moved into the super-premium RV market without proper appraisal of how a property downturn would impact on its financials. It used debt to outbid and purchase very expensive land in Kohimarama and a very costly development which is now sapping cash flow and incurring interest costs with diminishing returns.

I for one don't think OCA's debt is that high. $620m on $2.7 billion of assets is pretty low, so long as they are operating within their debt covenants then there is nothing to worry about. I think that they have that under control.

It's worth noting just how low their interest rates for that debt is as well.

I think it'd be smart to wait until the annual report is released before discussing The Helier any further... Don't want to end up with egg on your face again like last year with you confidently predicting a capital raise.

[Balance]

I for one don't think OCA's debt is that high. $620m on $2.7 billion of assets is pretty low, so long as they are operating within their debt covenants then there is nothing to worry about. I think that they have that under control.

It's worth noting just how low their interest rates for that debt is as well.

I think it'd be smart to wait until the annual report is released before discussing The Helier any further... Don't want to end up with egg on your face again like last year with you confidently predicting a capital raise.

Cutting the dividend, slowing and stopping new developments and selling 'surplus' assets as a consequence are all indicative that OCA has too much debt.

The level of debt on assets is but one pertinent measure as to whether debt is too high - what is equally pertinent if not more is a company's ability to service debt and to repay/refinance debt on time.

[ronaldson]

I don't think OCA is "selling 'surplus' assets" as you put it because it has too much debt. It is executing a clear strategy to divest facilities which simply comprise aged care beds and/or are overweight in such beds without good development potential, because these facilities do not offer an adequate return on funds invested.

The fact that the realisation proceeds may be (at least temporarily) used to pay down debt is not indicative that is the underlying purpose or driver of the activity.

The latest announcement is some indication that strategy is finally yeilding the desired outcome, with additional settlements expected this quarter, and it will be interesting when the next set of results are available to see what assets still remain in the "Held for Sale" category. But I suspect we need to wait until the end of FY25 to see the real benefits of both the recent and currently anticipated divestments.

[Balance]

I don't think OCA is "selling 'surplus' assets" as you put it because it has too much debt. It is executing a clear strategy to divest facilities which simply comprise aged care beds and/or are overweight in such beds without good development potential, because these facilities do not offer an adequate return on funds invested.

The fact that the realisation proceeds may be (at least temporarily) used to pay down debt is not indicative that is the underlying purpose or driver of the activity.

The latest announcement is some indication that strategy is finally yeilding the desired outcome, with additional settlements expected this quarter, and it will be interesting when the next set of results are available to see what assets still remain in the "Held for Sale" category. But I suspect we need to wait until the end of FY25 to see the real benefits of both the recent and currently anticipated divestments.

If OCA was just selling 'surplus' assets as one measure to transform its business as announced last year, I would agree with you. But it did not - it announced the dividend cut and the slow down & termination of new developments at the same time.

[Daytr]

Few companies (HLG, BGP and STU come to mind) operate with zero debt - in fact, a prudent level of debt optimizes shareholders' returns by lowering the cost of capital.

So it is unrealistic to expect OCA to operate with zero debt and as a property development and investment company, it shouldn't.

The issue for OCA is what should be an appropriate and prudent level of debt.

If you look at OCA's transformative strategy, I believe it has been poorly executed - case in point, I believe that The Helier was a bridge too far for OCA which moved into the super-premium RV market without proper appraisal of how a property downturn would impact on its financials. It used debt to outbid and purchase very expensive land in Kohimarama and a very costly development which is now sapping cash flow and incurring interest costs with diminishing returns.


I for one don't think OCA's debt is that high. $620m on $2.7 billion of assets is pretty low, so long as they are operating within their debt covenants then there is nothing to worry about. I think that they have that under control.

It's worth noting just how low their interest rates for that debt is as well.

I think it'd be smart to wait until the annual report is released before discussing The Helier any further... Don't want to end up with egg on your face again like last year with you confidently predicting a capital raise.

I don't think the level of debt would be an issue if they were operating at a profit, however OCA are relying on sales & resales to subsidise the operation.

I also wonder if the margins on resales will be squeezed further in the future if the Government manages to reduce the cost of building by allowing cheaper building materials in.

[ronaldson]

I had contact with a rep from Orion point today ( Hobsonville, Auckland and a newly opened quality MetLifeCare facility ) and 2 bed villas are reduced to $1.2m-$1.25m from the previous $1.45m although the 3 bed coastal edge villas remain at $1.95m. Sign of the times to shift product just now.

And the Herald is reporting on the 77yo pensioner who asserts she can't sell so as yield enough to enter a village because the Tauranga CC has just released updated Rating Valuations that are down 10% or so! Go figure.

[Snow Leopard]

I for one don't think OCA's debt is that high. $620m on $2.7 billion of assets is pretty low...

You forgot to add the $950M of 'float debt' :t_down:

[ValueNZ]

You forgot to add the $950M of 'float debt' :t_down:
I certainly did not. The float is interest free and non callable. Easily more valuable than equity.

[Bjauck]

I had contact with a rep from Orion point today ( Hobsonville, Auckland and a newly opened quality MetLifeCare facility ) and 2 bed villas are reduced to $1.2m-$1.25m from the previous $1.45m although the 3 bed coastal edge villas remain at $1.95m. Sign of the times to shift product just now.

And the Herald is reporting on the 77yo pensioner who asserts she can't sell so as yield enough to enter a village because the Tauranga CC has just released updated Rating Valuations that are down 10% or so! Go figure.
It is tough when the vast majority of your assets are sunk in your home. As they are for so many Kiwis.

[Baa_Baa]

Strong close, 169,203 stepping into the Ask at $0.64, up $0.04 6.67%. Don't they say amateurs buy the open and pro's buy the close?

[ValueNZ]

Strong close, 169,203 stepping into the Ask at $0.64, up $0.04 6.67%. Don't they say amateurs buy the open and pro's buy the close?

Damn, I have had a buy order open at 58c for the last couple days. Oh well.

[winner69]

Strong close, 169,203 stepping into the Ask at $0.64, up $0.04 6.67%. Don't they say amateurs buy the open and pro's buy the close?

Wouldn’t surprise me for somebody to come out and mention ‘manipulation’

If the ‘pros’ are keen 66 cents tomorrow?

[Snow Leopard]

Strong close, 169,203 stepping into the Ask at $0.64, up $0.04 6.67%. Don't they say amateurs buy the open and pro's buy the close?

Big volumes at close on many (NZ50 ?) shares today.
Probably some dumb funds rebalancing.

[Baa_Baa]

Big volumes at close on many (NZ50 ?) shares today.
Probably some dumb funds rebalancing.

Oh no, it’s the evil manipulator insto’s holders pumping up the SP to benefit their underwriting the inevitable “deeply discounted” cap raise because OCA is in balance sheet hell with crippling debt they can’t possibly service, buggered cash flow, endless properties they can’t sell, divesting losers too slowly, stupidly continuing developments, buying new property at inflated prices, fudging comms to shareholders.

Did I miss anything? We’re doomed, doomed I tell ya!

[Snow Leopard]

Oh no, it’s the evil manipulator insto’s holders pumping up the SP to benefit their underwriting the inevitable “deeply discounted” cap raise because OCA is in balance sheet hell with crippling debt they can’t possibly service, buggered cash flow, endless properties they can’t sell, divesting losers too slowly, stupidly continuing developments, buying new property at inflated prices, fudging comms to shareholders.

Did I miss anything? We’re doomed, doomed I tell ya!

Yeh, that sums it up quiet nicely. :D

Or, it really needs some PE outfit to come along with a 70c bid to put the long suffering and deluded shareholders out of their misery.

OCA is the new MET.

[Baa_Baa]

Yeh, that sums it up quiet nicely. :D

Or, it really needs some PE outfit to come along with a 70c bid to put the long suffering and deluded shareholders out of their misery.

OCA is the new MET.

Brilliant, I'm sure all the the long suffering and deluded, even doomed, shareholders would leap at a 9% premium buyout to current SP for their shares that are trading at 55% discount to NTA.

[Habits]

It is tough when the vast majority of your assets are sunk in your home. As they are for so many Kiwis.

Of all the older people I've known, those without a house generally have NO assets at all. Owning a house has at least given something to sell

[Bjauck]

Of all the older people I've known, those without a house generally have NO assets at all. Owning a house has at least given something to sell
Sure. However, they have no diversification of assets, and no other assets to fall back on, such as in this case. Hopefully as KiwiSaver matures, it may mean there is more diversification, for more people.

[Habits]

Sure. However, they have no diversification of assets, and no other assets to fall back on, such as in this case. Hopefully as KiwiSaver matures, it may mean there is more diversification, for more people.

Having funds tied up isnt such a bad thing, dumb kiwis are being scammed of their readies by sophisticated rings

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/south-island-cop-northland-pensioner-lose-300k-through-offshore-scam-linked-to-auckland-mum/KMA53DKQNVGUJAO3OJNVS34KTQ/

[Balance]

Sure. However, they have no diversification of assets, and no other assets to fall back on, such as in this case. Hopefully as KiwiSaver matures, it may mean there is more diversification, for more people.

Nothing wrong with houses - been the best investment ever in most Western countries since like forever.

[winner69]

All these young(er) people heading off to Aussie for better life

I hear even more oldies are following them in droves to be close to their kids and grandchildren

Might not be the need for 10s of thousands of new retirement units after all

[allfromacell]

All these young(er) people heading off to Aussie for better life

I hear even more oldies are following them in droves to be close to their kids and grandchildren

Might not be the need for 10s of thousands of new retirement units after all

I have finally got my ducks in a row and am applying, no offers yet though...

[Ggcc]

Nothing wrong with houses - been the best investment ever in most Western countries since like forever.
Plus the one of the only things banks use as collateral. Shares are not worth the same number as a houses value to lend against. I am struggling to get a credit card due to having a low income, yet my wealth is not on the light side.

[Balance]

All these young(er) people heading off to Aussie for better life

I hear even more oldies are following them in droves to be close to their kids and grandchildren

Might not be the need for 10s of thousands of new retirement units after all

Guess Trelise Cooper will not be moving into any of the super-premium RV unit like The Helier anytime soon? Wonder how much she wants for her $10.4m apartment.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/style/350247525/trelise-cooper-selling-home-and-quitting-nz

Fashion designer Dame Trelise Cooper has announced she is selling her Auckland apartment and moving overseas, just weeks after moving into her new home.

Cooper told real estate website One Roof the decision to move was for family reasons and the apartment was therefore no longer needed.

“We’ve come to this new chapter, where we have decided family is very important to us,” Cooper said.

The couple’s apartment will go to auction on May 8 and has a CV of $10.5 million.

[Panda-NZ-]

All these young(er) people heading off to Aussie for better life

I hear even more oldies are following them in droves to be close to their kids and grandchildren

Might not be the need for 10s of thousands of new retirement units after all

I think you can even get NZ super while living there.

https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/countries-and-regions/australia-and-pacific/australia/new-zealand-high-commission-to-australia/living-in-australia/daily-life-in-australia/social-security-benefits/#:~:text=New%20Zealanders%20who%20are%2065,Austral ian%20pension%20payments

No doubt health services (and services all round) would be better and cheaper with both more people and low gst.

[Daytr]

I think you can even get NZ super while living there.

https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/countries-and-regions/australia-and-pacific/australia/new-zealand-high-commission-to-australia/living-in-australia/daily-life-in-australia/social-security-benefits/#:~:text=New%20Zealanders%20who%20are%2065,Austral ian%20pension%20payments

No doubt health services (and services all round) would be better and cheaper with both more people and low gst.

From what I just quickly read if you have lived in Australia as a resident for more than 10 years,.you may qualify for both!
Which seems odd.

[Balance]

From what I just quickly read if you have lived in Australia as a resident for more than 10 years,.you may qualify for both!
Which seems odd.

But you cannot be out of NZ for more than half a year or else, you lose your super?

[ronaldson]

Lots of fishhooks, so take great care before you make any commitments. And the Australian Age Pension eligibility is means tested.

[Panda-NZ-]

Lots of fishhooks, so take great care before you make any commitments. And the Australian Age Pension eligibility is means tested.

NZ super is not though. So if you spent most of your working life here you would get nearly full payment from NZ taxpayers to live in QLD somewhere.

[ValueNZ]

Nothing wrong with houses - been the best investment ever in most Western countries since like forever.
I'd argue purchasing a house is among the worst "investments" someone can make, especially in New Zealand.

It only works out for you as an investor if you leverage tf up and experience multiple expansion.

Productive assets are the way to go, sensibly priced equities or some private interest in a business.

[Panda-NZ-]

You can make a motza on rent... Rents in world class cities like melbourne are lower than in auckland (road cones everywhere, potholes, no public transport) and even Wellington.

[Balance]

I'd argue purchasing a house is among the worst "investments" someone can make, especially in New Zealand.

It only works out for you as an investor if you leverage tf up and experience multiple expansion.

Productive assets are the way to go, sensibly priced equities or some private interest in a business.

Argued all you like but the rise and rise of house prices since the 1970s, easily outpacing inflation, speaks for itself.

Like all investments however, timing is also important however and I certainly did not and would not have bought any property in the last 2 years. Especially in the fringe outlying areas.

[Panda-NZ-]

You can make a motza on rent... Rents in world class cities like melbourne are lower than in auckland (road cones everywhere, potholes, no public transport) and even Wellington.

Increasingly, no public services are offered by any city in NZ these days.

Look at the libaries in Australia for a comparison which are mostly free to use.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Library_Victoria
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Library_of_New_South_Wales

[RTM]

I'd argue purchasing a house is among the worst "investments" someone can make, especially in New Zealand.

It only works out for you as an investor if you leverage tf up and experience multiple expansion.

Productive assets are the way to go, sensibly priced equities or some private interest in a business.

I told my wife for about 45 years that houses were a bad investment. Consequently the five family homes we owned (now in No 5) were our only exposure to real estate. She was right, as always, should have invested in more, although to be honest, I couldn't be bothered with the hassle and we did really well with the family homes we owned. All of them. So that's my experience. Who knows what's ahead ? But it is certainly easy to leverage up on real-estate, even if you're not really understanding what you are doing. Harder to do with other classes of investment.

[thegreatestben]

It's tough RTM, what you don't see is the challenges people have had while holding those properties. I am in the opposite position and I'm all in, sort of second wave too. I still own my first home and have done for 12 years now. I was mortgage free and I had the opportunity to subdivide as I was rezoned to medium density. I'm now loaded to the gills as I hold 3x homes and close to 2m in mortgage. I just refixed for 6 months on the lot at 6.95% and my interest only bill is $10,200 a month. Having to top up $1000 a week as rent doesn't come close after all the costs (mostly rates and insurance).

It's been tough, I am looking at all my investments and wondering why I bother lately.

[Daytr]

Argued all you like but the rise and rise of house prices since the 1970s, easily outpacing inflation, speaks for itself.

Like all investments however, timing is also important however and I certainly did not and would not have bought any property in the last 2 years. Especially in the fringe outlying areas.

And the biggest advantage is the gains are tax free.

[Panda-NZ-]

And the biggest advantage is the gains are tax free.

& indeed underpins the value of this sector and REITs.

Look for a bloodbath should National do what both the IMF & OECD recommends for us on tax.

[Rawz]

It's tough RTM, what you don't see is the challenges people have had while holding those properties. I am in the opposite position and I'm all in, sort of second wave too. I still own my first home and have done for 12 years now. I was mortgage free and I had the opportunity to subdivide as I was rezoned to medium density. I'm now loaded to the gills as I hold 3x homes and close to 2m in mortgage. I just refixed for 6 months on the lot at 6.95% and my interest only bill is $10,200 a month. Having to top up $1000 a week as rent doesn't come close after all the costs (mostly rates and insurance).

It's been tough, I am looking at all my investments and wondering why I bother lately.

that sounds stressful.

Wifey and I owned a rental and came to the conclusion we didnt need the stress in our lives. Just wanted 1 mortgage on our home and try get rich on good PAYE jobs and investing in the sharemaket.
We cleared bugger all when we sold it but i tell you what.. when we got our first decent dividends from 2CC vs topping up the rental it was bliss.

the dividend was spent on a queenstown holiday with the kids and a $800 robot vacuum that doesnt work that well lol. Lifes much more enjoyable now.

[Bjauck]

Nothing wrong with houses - been the best investment ever in most Western countries since like forever. Sure. A big golden egg for many. You just have to hope that you don’t have a cracked one. You cannot sell just a couple of rooms if you need some money. Also if there is a major issue, or public works nearby, it could make it difficult to sell. Whilst accepting the benefit of home ownership, other nations have also recognised the benefits of a diversification of assets, and have encouraged it.

[Bjauck]

Increasingly, no public services are offered by any city in NZ these days.

Look at the libaries in Australia for a comparison which are mostly free to use.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Library_Victoria
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Library_of_New_South_Wales
Auckland has a great free online service for its books, and emagazines.

[RTM]

It's tough RTM, what you don't see is the challenges people have had while holding those properties. I am in the opposite position and I'm all in, sort of second wave too. I still own my first home and have done for 12 years now. I was mortgage free and I had the opportunity to subdivide as I was rezoned to medium density. I'm now loaded to the gills as I hold 3x homes and close to 2m in mortgage. I just refixed for 6 months on the lot at 6.95% and my interest only bill is $10,200 a month. Having to top up $1000 a week as rent doesn't come close after all the costs (mostly rates and insurance).

It's been tough, I am looking at all my investments and wondering why I bother lately.

Yep, that does sound stressful. Good luck, hope it works out.

[Baa_Baa]

The Helier Private Care Residences now open.

15052

[Habits]

Plus the one of the only things banks use as collateral. Shares are not worth the same number as a houses value to lend against. I am struggling to get a credit card due to having a low income, yet my wealth is not on the light side.

Struggling to get a cc WTF?! Those cards are one of the banks best earners, is this all due to the CCCFA F***ken nannie state

[mistaTea]

Struggling to get a cc WTF?! Those cards are one of the banks best earners, is this all due to the CCCFA F***ken nannie state

CCCFA is the biggest bs out.

I worked on a project for a finance company when it came out. Way over the top.

Rather than tighten up on the dodgy loan sharks, Labour hit the nuclear button.

[Grimy]

Struggling to get a cc WTF?! Those cards are one of the banks best earners, is this all due to the CCCFA F***ken nannie state

I don't think it's anything new.
40 years ago I was in the same position. Reasonably high net worth, guarantors, but low income. I had left my job to travel. Plenty of money in my account, but the bank didn't want to know.
If I'd applied the day before leaving work it wouldn't have been a problem.
Sorry. A bit off topic.

[Ggcc]

Struggling to get a cc WTF?! Those cards are one of the banks best earners, is this all due to the CCCFA F***ken nannie state
It is ridiculous. I don’t believe the banks are at fault for this. If it doesn’t work I will be ok lol, it is just nuts. They don’t take capital wealth and gains into account, don’t class Airbnb as income and don’t class dividends as secured income 🤣

[winner69]

Jeez, “WARRIORS IN SHOCK LOSS TO DRAGONS” the headline reads. Actually thrashed is better description. Fans a bit shocked as well as things were going in right direction up to last night. But fans say just a blip and good to get the bad game for the season behind us. … and it’s all up from here and this year will still be our year. UP THE WAHS

Oceania share price down 1 cent last week even though they came out with a good sales announcement. Fans thought it was really good news and got excited when ‘the pros’ pushed the share price up one day. Still down for week but fans saying the market will see the ‘value’ here and the share price will stil be over $1 by year end.

A casual observer might say 1) the Warriors aren’t really much better this year than they were the last couple of years and the season will just be an average one and 2) as Oceania sales were disappointing and not as good as peers it’s hard to see it’s share price moving much this year

But keep believing ….UP THE WAHS …. and OCEANIA IS THE ONE ….this is our year, yes it is.

[Daytr]

Yeah the Wahs are a tough watch, a bit like the OCA share price limping along.

[Snoopy]

Jeez, “WARRIORS IN SHOCK LOSS TO DRAGONS” the headline reads. Actually thrashed is better description. Fans a bit shocked as well as things were going in right direction up to last night. But fans say just a blip and good to get the bad game for the season behind us. … and it’s all up from here and this year will still be our year. UP THE WAHS

Oceania share price down 1 cent last week even though they came out with a good sales announcement.


OCA share price down, and the WAHs lose? I didn't realise the result of these games was pre-determined in advance! I always thought the game result was determined on the field. That just shows how little I know about league. I might have to get into sports betting, now I know how it all works.

I went to the OCA website to find out more about the rules. I read that players under 70 are not allowed. That seems to be a bit of a strange rule for Brent to implement. Maybe if he put a few younger members in the team, the WAHs would perform better?

SNOOPY

[mike2020]

Yeah the Wahs are a tough watch, a bit like the OCA share price limping along.

People watching The Warriors and expecting a different result is the definition of what? It saddens me to say I have friends who are true followers of the Wahs. My guess is they have too much time on their hands.

OCAs year was 2021. Next cycle is 2025 after rates are cut?

[Habits]

People watching The Warriors and expecting a different result is the definition of what? It saddens me to say I have friends who are true followers of the Wahs. My guess is they have too much time on their hands.

OCAs year was 2021. Next cycle is 2025 after rates are cut?

Ive always believed that stocks are forward looking by six to nine months... ill have to rethink that view

[Daytr]

OCA share price down, and the WAHs lose? I didn't realise the result of these games was pre-determined in advance! I always thought the game result was determined on the field. That just shows how little I know about league. I might have to get into sports betting, now I know how it all works.

I went to the OCA website to find out more about the rules. I read that players under 70 are not allowed. That seems to be a bit of a strange rule for Brent to implement. Maybe if he put a few younger members in the team, the WAHs would perform better?

SNOOPY

Perhaps it's not just a precursor...


People watching The Warriors and expecting a different result is the definition of what? It saddens me to say I have friends who are true followers of the Wahs. My guess is they have too much time on their hands.

OCAs year was 2021. Next cycle is 2025 after rates are cut?

Yeah I have friends like that as well. Got to admire their commitment & enthusiasm. The Warriors must be doing something right to garner such loyal shareholders... I mean supporters. 🤣

[Balance]

The Helier Private Care Residences now open.

15052

No mention of how many private care residents?

"CEO Brent Pattison call the “private care model”, costing around $3500/week or $182,000/year. The exact weekly fee will depend on the level of care required but the concept is to provide hospital-standard rest home and palliative care for residents at the luxurious end of the market."

Gulp!

[Bjauck]

The Helier Private Care Residences now open.

15052
As a shareholder this is a ray of good news. It is a fantastic place from what I have seen from the outside and from publicity.

However, I wonder if the deputy Mayor of Auckland will turn up when the more standard Wesley Care Centre closes. I hope standard care beds receive Council attention too.

[Rawz]

After the poor sales update from OCA I should have known the Wahs would lose. Could have made easy money from the TAB.

[Maverick]

Seems Oceania only sold about 69 new units in second half of year H224 …..new sales about the same as H223

No wonder a bit light on real detail …hopefully thinking the market will go into raptures with some big numbers

Continued growth in resales is good …..but the new sales not good.

Maverick ..am I about right …please check for me

If right you disappointed?
Hey Winner,
I've been out of coverage and away from my stuff.

I'm incredibly disappointed. With sales clues from SUM and ARV sales and the general thawing of the housing market sales should have been 2hy of 55-65. Instead it appears we are around 35-40 . Up until we have had covid issues, understaffing of care, weather events, lockdowns …whatever.
This time there is no excuse, no reason . I'm gob smacked.

We have been told enough to believe about 15 Christchurch should have sold, maybe 15-20 Helier (sales “pleasantly surprising” as I recall) , then Hamilton is going well now so maybe another 10-15 . Add a few reminants from Eden and then Tauranga in full swing , say 12 ….thats 55-60 …..how the heck do we only sell c. 35-40???

It's possible that the sales result, which is a combo of new apartments and care suites could actually comprise good apartment sales and very poor care suite new sales. Perhaps the new care suites are locked up with grandfathered residents , or maybe sold as PACs or perhaps they weren't actually quite ready for occupation as indicated . ie Blenheim is definitely delayed, Helier seems to have only just opened.

Another thing is that while HY1 had very good sales volume , they were lower value and lower margin whereas Hy2 had high value and high margin….so net profit may not be too bad.

This is just me clutching at straws when in all likeness they just had sucky apartment sales.

It is not possible to untease this further until we get more info so for now it does look reasonable that we are going to get , at the very best, a flat result.

I think for now , that Forbar is spot on that things will only pick up with OCA when the property market properly turns.

I can't help but wonder that Brent's exit and these sales / strategy are related. I do take comfort that some directors are heavily invested in OCA and they will be having the same WTF feelings.

I'm not selling yet, there is still good stuff in the result and at play but I am bitterly disappointed at this point with these sales numbers. Also at $0.62c all this has been priced in. After reworking my numbers based on this update I agree with the analysts TP of slightly under $1 by Christmas. When the sales finally do pick up (they will at some stage as the product always used to sell ok) then we are away but when that is,is the big question.

Baa baa has rightly said its all about sales sales sales and this result is showing is that aint now.

[Grimy]

Anecdotal, but I've had three neighbours move to retirement villages in the past 6 months. One to a Metlife village and two to privately owned ones.
My sister has her name down for a Bupa village.
Not one of them had considered an Oceania village. I understand that with my sister as not one nearby, but for the others Oceania seemed to be off their radar.
I'm West Auckland, which isn't catered for by Oceania unless you go to Hobsonville, or towards town, which is a bit of a gap in the market I feel.
But all three looked around other parts of Auckland as well as West, and one has gone to Mt. Albert, so moving out of area wasn't really a barrier.
I'm a long time holder, but although they seem to be doing the right things generally, sometimes things just don't seem quite right.
Perhaps it's priced as it is for a reason.....
As has been said - sales are everything to get this company going.

[Maverick]

Historically , selling delivered apartments fully down has always taken OCA about 2 years to do. A bit more or less depending on the fervour of the market. If we add the current 24HY1 + HY2 then surprisingly they are still within that 2 year metric when considering their available stock. It’s just that HY1 sales were rather good , it kind of set false expectations, certainly for me.
One could argue that selling apartments things too fast now would create a deficit in stock next year as next deliveries are a wee while away. May as well hang out for top dollar. ( that’s me really clutching at straws to understand this )

Don’t think I’m justifying this poor result but it may no be quite as bad as it first seems AS LONG AS ITS A ONE OFF. These apartments always used to sell ok, so no reason to think they suddenly have become undesirable.

I remain confused however for how it is even possible to sell so few given the market warming and OCAs stock levels and stage of sell downs. Then coupled with their public statements they have made in the last 5 months. Something just doesn’t add up in all this.

These fy24 sales are actually still in keeping within the standard 2 year sell down period they have proven ever since they were NZX listed (although fluctuating up and down per 6 months). So I remain ( albeit rather unhappily) in limbo on this result until we are told more.

[Daytr]

Sign of things to come. 5.99% 2 year rate is considerably lower than the major banks are offering.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/127378/challenger-bank-sbs-jumps-mortgage-market-big-splash-aiming-snare-outsized

[winner69]

Good to hear from you Mav.

Certainly doesn’t look like they sold 55 apartments in 2nd half eh?

You say “Something just doesn’t add up in all this.” …..I mentioned the same the other day

Whatever it was a weird announcent …so vague and open to so much conjecture …not good

[ValueNZ]

Historically , selling delivered apartments fully down has always taken OCA about 2 years to do. A bit more or less depending on the fervour of the market. If we add the current 24HY1 + HY2 then surprisingly they are still within that 2 year metric when considering their available stock. It’s just that HY1 sales were rather good , it kind of set false expectations, certainly for me.
One could argue that selling apartments things too fast now would create a deficit in stock next year as next deliveries are a wee while away. May as well hang out for top dollar. ( that’s me really clutching at straws to understand this )

Don’t think I’m justifying this poor result but it may no be quite as bad as it first seems AS LONG AS ITS A ONE OFF. These apartments always used to sell ok, so no reason to think they suddenly have become undesirable.

I remain confused however for how it is even possible to sell so few given the market warming and OCAs stock levels and stage of sell downs. Then coupled with their public statements they have made in the last 5 months. Something just doesn’t add up in all this.

These fy24 sales are actually still in keeping within the standard 2 year sell down period they have proven ever since they were NZX listed (although fluctuating up and down per 6 months). So I remain ( albeit rather unhappily) in limbo on this result until we are told more.

I suppose the question becomes how large of a difference does it make to us shareholders if selling down the current available stock takes a bit longer than expected.

I would suggest that the difference isn't too much between waiting 3-4 years instead of 2 years. Let me know if I'm wrong here...

But I don't think it's worth getting wound up over poor(ish) short term results.

You said it yourself, standard 8c per share of earnings gives us roughly a earnings yield of 13%. I would be okay with a forward 13% return in perp, but it's clear to you and I that in say 5-10 years OCA will be earning way more than that. Patience is key.

[Daytr]

I suppose the question becomes how large of a difference does it make to us shareholders if selling down the current available stock takes a bit longer than expected.

I would suggest that the difference isn't too much between waiting 3-4 years instead of 2 years. Let me know if I'm wrong here...

But I don't think it's worth getting wound up over poor(ish) short term results.

You said it yourself, standard 8c per share of earnings gives us roughly a earnings yield of 13%. I would be okay with a forward 13% return in perp, but it's clear to you and I that in say 5-10 years OCA will be earning way more than that. Patience is key.

Waiting another year, not so bad.
Two years and those interest costs add up.

[thegreatestben]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/04/oceania-slammed-as-report-exposes-litany-of-failures-in-care-of-man-who-died-after-complaining-of-terrible-pain.html

[RTM]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/04/oceania-slammed-as-report-exposes-litany-of-failures-in-care-of-man-who-died-after-complaining-of-terrible-pain.html

Jeeze, that sounds just aweful. Everyone’s worst nightmare. Poor fellow.
Sailor-Boy might get some shares at even lower prices, not sure I want anymore.

[winner69]

Mightn’t be as many as punters think the number of oldies who will be able to afford moving into a retirement village

NBR article extract Centrix figures show an alarming trend, with more and more people over 65 still having a mortgage. The number of people stepping into retirement with a mortgage has been growing. In 2018, there were 118,000 people over 65 with a mortgage, rising to 136,000 people in 2023 collectively owing just over $25 billion.

That’s about 17% of over 65s have a mortgage now …maybe 30% in 10;years time way things are going.

[thegreatestben]

Could be read many ways. Does your source indicate the size of mortgages held? I'd keep a line of credit open with the bank even if I was "mortgage free", you never know when you might want to access the equity of your home at short notice without having to ask for permission.

[Balance]

Mightn’t be as many as punters think the number of oldies who will be able to afford moving into a retirement village

NBR article extract Centrix figures show an alarming trend, with more and more people over 65 still having a mortgage. The number of people stepping into retirement with a mortgage has been growing. In 2018, there were 118,000 people over 65 with a mortgage, rising to 136,000 people in 2023 collectively owing just over $25 billion.

That’s about 17% of over 65s have a mortgage now …maybe 30% in 10;years time way things are going.

Good for Heartland’s reverse mortgages business?

[bull....]

terriblr PR and service
no-wonder sales are down

Oceania slammed as report exposes litany of failures in care of man who died after complaining of 'terrible pain'


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/04/oceania-slammed-as-report-exposes-litany-of-failures-in-care-of-man-who-died-after-complaining-of-terrible-pain.html

[mistaTea]

terriblr PR and service
no-wonder sales are down

Oceania slammed as report exposes litany of failures in care of man who died after complaining of 'terrible pain'


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/04/oceania-slammed-as-report-exposes-litany-of-failures-in-care-of-man-who-died-after-complaining-of-terrible-pain.html

Poor b@stard p1ssed himself.

[Bjauck]

terriblr PR and service
no-wonder sales are down

Oceania slammed as report exposes litany of failures in care of man who died after complaining of 'terrible pain'


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/04/oceania-slammed-as-report-exposes-litany-of-failures-in-care-of-man-who-died-after-complaining-of-terrible-pain.html Funding squeeze and lack of staff at fault? His poor wife must have been in hell trying to help him when he was in “respite” care.

[Grimy]

Funding squeeze and lack of staff at fault? His poor wife must have been in hell trying to help him when he was in “respite” care.
Yes. That's the exact opposite of how respite care should work for the partner/family.

[Balance]

Funding squeeze and lack of staff at fault? His poor wife must have been in hell trying to help him when he was in “respite” care.

Market certainly not happy with the revelation - sp under pressure again with bid side looking very thin. Could test previous low of 56c if the sp cannot hold 59c (index selldown).

One too many issues with Oceania's care of the elderly.

Goes back to how and why Oceania was set up in the first place?

Oceania was put together by Macquarie in line with their strategy of aggregating businesses and assets, to flick onto the market for a profit. There's no real vision or underlying philosophy behind the company - a lot of corporate speak & jargon with one single aim - exit for a profit.

[Baa_Baa]

Market certainly not happy with the revelation - sp under pressure again with bid side looking very thin. Could test previous low of 56c if the sp cannot hold 59c (index selldown).

One too many issues with Oceania's care of the elderly.

Goes back to how and why Oceania was set up in the first place?

Oceania was put together by Macquarie in line with their strategy of aggregating businesses and assets, to flick onto the market for a profit. There's no real vision or underlying philosophy behind the company - a lot of corporate speak & jargon with one single aim - exit for a profit.

2019 incident.

"The results confirm that this was an independent incident and not a reflection of the wider culture."

Macquarie exited 2021 (if I recall correctly). The whole business has new strategy and business model since.

This should have no effect on the market. Market is forward looking, not backwards 5 years

[Balance]

2019 incident.

"The results confirm that this was an independent incident and not a reflection of the wider culture."

Macquarie exited 2021 (if I recall correctly). The whole business has new strategy and business model since.

This should have no effect on the market. Market is forward looking, not backwards 5 years

Fair enough but how confident can children be about putting their parents into OCA's RV and care units?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/472492/oceania-care-apologises-for-shocking-treatment-of-woman-in-one-of-its-rest-homes

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/waikato-news/news/whitianga-rest-home-influenza-outbreak-six-dead/HJUC2B4US5DNTJEOHGJTLUWH6I/

[bull....]

Market certainly not happy with the revelation - sp under pressure again with bid side looking very thin. Could test previous low of 56c if the sp cannot hold 59c (index selldown).

One too many issues with Oceania's care of the elderly.

Goes back to how and why Oceania was set up in the first place?

Oceania was put together by Macquarie in line with their strategy of aggregating businesses and assets, to flick onto the market for a profit. There's no real vision or underlying philosophy behind the company - a lot of corporate speak & jargon with one single aim - exit for a profit.

Its not the kind of PR you want in a sales slowdown. might make things even worse :scared: capital raising might be back on the table then

[Baa_Baa]

Fair enough but how confident can children be about putting their parents into OCA's RV and care units?

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/472492/oceania-care-apologises-for-shocking-treatment-of-woman-in-one-of-its-rest-homes

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/waikato-news/news/whitianga-rest-home-influenza-outbreak-six-dead/HJUC2B4US5DNTJEOHGJTLUWH6I/

All of the RV's have isolated incidents from time to time, it is inevitable. This is not exclusive to OCA by any means.

[Balance]

All of the RV's have isolated incidents from time to time, it is inevitable. This is not exclusive to OCA by any means.

Agreed but OCA seems to hog the headlines compared to the other listed RV players? Not good for sales surely!

[bottomfeeder]

Agreed but OCA seems to hog the headlines compared to the other listed RV players? Not good for sales surely!

Very slanted article. The elderley man had so many advanced health issues. He was in hospital for two weeks before he died. Did they blame the hospital? Perhaps Oceania should not take in such patients. They probably should have gone to hospice for respite care. Nevertheless my sympathies go out to the family. But now as he was a very sick man, and in the care of anyone else would probably have died, market cap has dropped by over 20 mill. Just where does that make sense from an isolated incident.

[mistaTea]

Very slanted article. The elderley man had so many advanced health issues. He was in hospital for two weeks before he died. Did they blame the hospital? Perhaps Oceania should not take in such patients. They probably should have gone to hospice for respite care. Nevertheless my sympathies go out to the family. But now as he was a very sick man, and in the care of anyone else would probably have died, market cap has dropped by over 20 mill. Just where does that make sense from an isolated incident.

Jesus Christ.

Thank God you are not in charge of comms or Brand at OCA.

You actually sat down, wrote that out and did not even have a little voice in the back of your mind protesting before you hit the post button.

[winner69]

Don’t think market cap has dropped by 20 mill because of that article

Just punters still wary of OCA overall performance and what might come out in next month results announcement

Sentiment sure is negative at the moment

[bottomfeeder]

Jesus Christ.

Thank God you are not in charge of comms or Brand at OCA.

You actually sat down, wrote that out and did not even have a little voice in the back of your mind protesting before you hit the post button.

Dont see the problem with my post. Rv's are in the business of caring for the elderley. But when the residents become so severely sick, they need specialised hospice care, which RV care staff just cant cope with due to the level of supervision required. RV's should not be a hospice care facility.

[mistaTea]

Dont see the problem with my post. Rv's are in the business of caring for the elderley. But when the residents become so severely sick, they need specialised hospice care, which RV care staff just cant cope with due to the level of supervision required. RV's should not be a hospice care facility.

Christ!!!

OCA should rebrand so say “come on in if yer old but not completely f*cked. Otherwise, bugger off to hospice!”

Be great for sales.

[mistaTea]

Dont see the problem with my post. Rv's are in the business of caring for the elderley. But when the residents become so severely sick, they need specialised hospice care, which RV care staff just cant cope with due to the level of supervision required. RV's should not be a hospice care facility.

This is from the OCA website:

“If your care needs include more complex medical or mobility concerns, then our team can provide full Hospital level care suited to you. Our personalised approach ensures that what you need and want is at the centre of every decision.”

This poor b@stard was in the right place according to the services OCA position themselves as offering.

Have a heart!

[bottomfeeder]

Christ!!!

OCA should rebrand so say “come on in if yer old but not completely f*cked. Otherwise, bugger off to hospice!”

Be great for sales.

Well if you put it in those disgusting terms it sounds terrible. But sometimes there are and should be limits on acceptance of certain clients due to the expertise, facilities and level of care required. Obviously we are dealing with very sensitive clents and their families, who understandably get upset when their elderley relatives pass away. Their condition is not as a result of their care but a natural progression of their age and level of health problems.

On a personal note, I think you should pull your head in with your crude and ignorant language, your level of agression and get some sorely needed help.

[mistaTea]

Well if you put it in those disgusting terms it sounds terrible. But sometimes there are and should be limits on acceptance of certain clients due to the expertise, facilities and level of care required. Obviously we are dealing with very sensitive clents and their families, who understandably get upset when their elderley relatives pass away. Their condition is not as a result of their care but a natural progression of their age and level of health problems.

On a personal note, I think you should pull your head in with your crude and ignorant language, your level of agression and get some sorely needed help.

No, no, no - you aren’t going to turn this around honey.

You needed to pause and take a deep breath before you wrote your original post.

The idea that OCA should not be in the firing line because, in your opinion, this poor geezer was too damned depreciated to be looked after by OCA and should have been shoved into a hospice to die instead is on you.

I would not recommend you invest your money on the RV sector with that kind of attitude to a vulnerable person who has paid OCA for a level of care they assured him and his family they can provide.

Oh aye, you need to pull your head right stuffing in.

[Greekwatchdog]

No, no, no - you aren’t going to turn this around honey.

You needed to pause and take a deep breath before you wrote your original post.

The idea that OCA should not be in the firing line because, in your opinion, this poor geezer was too damned depreciated to be looked after by OCA and should have been shoved into a hospice to die instead is on you.

I would not recommend you invest your money on the RV sector with that kind of attitude to a vulnerable person who has paid OCA for a level of care they assured him and his family they can provide.

Oh aye, you need to pull your head right stuffing in.

Its been dealt with and OCA have had to cop and deservedly as they let that gentleman and family down, but MT this is very isolated. So you procrastinating is nothing more than childish antics at best.

Also your language is Atrocious so maybe tone it down a little.

[bottomfeeder]

No, no, no - you aren’t going to turn this around honey.

You needed to pause and take a deep breath before you wrote your original post.

The idea that OCA should not be in the firing line because, in your opinion, this poor geezer was too damned depreciated to be looked after by OCA and should have been shoved into a hospice to die instead is on you.

I would not recommend you invest your money on the RV sector with that kind of attitude to a vulnerable person who has paid OCA for a level of care they assured him and his family they can provide.

Oh aye, you need to pull your head right stuffing in.

Expected very little else in reply. More ignorant gutter language with arrogant overtones. Ignorance in the extreme. Not your honey, but obviously you are online from some sort of prison.

Very little profit in the care suites anyway. Why would an RV take on a client with much greater requirements in the way of staff expertise and montoring requirements. About time everyone realised that RV's are not quasi non profit government agencies desperate for a bit of income at any cost. This instance just proves my point.

[Mrbuyit]

What's the endgame for bringing up an unfortunate incident from 5 years ago, clickbait media?

[winner69]

…..

Very little profit in the care suites anyway. ……..

.

Seems there is profit in care ….OCA reported $17k ebita per car bed last report and even Radious mentioned $24k per care bed yesterday

[mistaTea]

Its been dealt with and OCA have had to cop and deservedly as they let that gentleman and family down, but MT this is very isolated. So you procrastinating is nothing more than childish antics at best.

Also your language is Atrocious so maybe tone it down a little.

Yessss, I have been…procrastinating…

Lol.

[ValueNZ]

Market certainly not happy with the revelation - sp under pressure again with bid side looking very thin. Could test previous low of 56c if the sp cannot hold 59c (index selldown).
I'd love the opportunity to buy more at 56c... Anyone else?

[Balance]

Seems there is profit in care ….OCA reported $17k ebita per car bed last report and even Radious mentioned $24k per care bed yesterday

Huge profitability turnaround in Radius Care now that they can get staff and stabilised their debt situation. All about high occupancy when staff numbers allow. Money to be made.

Maybe OCA should merge its care bed division with Radius!

[Bjauck]

Very slanted article. The elderley man had so many advanced health issues. He was in hospital for two weeks before he died. Did they blame the hospital? Perhaps Oceania should not take in such patients. They probably should have gone to hospice for respite care. Nevertheless my sympathies go out to the family. But now as he was a very sick man, and in the care of anyone else would probably have died, market cap has dropped by over 20 mill. Just where does that make sense from an isolated incident.There are funding issues everywhere including hospices. The end of life needs to be imminent. So even though this patient had multiple co-morbidities, they may well have been insufficient for hospice care. The rule of thumb used to be, and it may still be in other nations, that if the expected remaining lifespan was six months or less, then hospice care would be considered. A Hospice would be keenly sought. Not only for the perceived quality of care, but for the fact that there is no charge or means testing

Perhaps the patient should already have been a permanent resident of a rest home hospital. However spouses (usually wives) are often reluctant to send their partners to rest homes.

[Mrbuyit]

I'd love the opportunity to buy more at 56c... Anyone else?
Even better would have been if I didn't buy any at $1 in 2019.

[Bjauck]

Seems there is profit in care ….OCA reported $17k ebita per car bed last report and even Radious mentioned $24k per care bed yesterday
The ministerial briefing at the end of last year from the ACA https://nzaca.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/2023-ACA-Ministerial-briefing.pdf
found that “Factoring in depreciation, amortisation and interest, the survey found that more than half (56%) of respondents’ facilities made a net loss in the 2022/23 financial year (equating to a loss of $4.24 per operating bed day)”

The briefing also found that the EBITDA per occupied bed DAY had fallen from $23.82 in 2017 to $3.94 in 2022. Auckland and BoP have better profit results.

[bull....]

a weekly close under 58c would be a new low on the weeklies ... very bearish and keep my original target from mth's back of covid lows being tested in tact

[Baa_Baa]

a weekly close under 58c would be a new low on the weeklies

Are you sure of that, current weekly low is same as 6 and 7 weeks ago and above 8 weeks ago of 0.55. And to hit your Covid low target, it will have to fall another 0.21 or 35%

No wonder you called yourself bull****.

Brilliant buying opportunity, but I'll wait for the long forecast 1:4 cap raise at 0.50, oh wait, the cap raise might be even more steeply discounted.

[kiwikeith]

Are you sure of that, current weekly low is same as 6 and 7 weeks ago and above 8 weeks ago of 0.55. And to hit your Covid low target, it will have to fall another 0.21 or 35%

No wonder you called yourself bull****.

Brilliant buying opportunity, but I'll wait for the long forecast 1:4 cap raise at 0.50, oh wait, the cap raise might be even more steeply discounted.


A cap raise at 50c per share would not make much sense when the NTA per share is $1.40. Better to raise the cash by selling a couple of villages. Mind you NZL has raised capital at a significant discount to NTA so never say never.

[bottomfeeder]

So deep under water that you cannot see how horrendous your post was.

That was what you took away from the negative press about OCA…

…That the poor b@stard should have taken his sick old arse elsewhere.

Jesus, that’s so bad.

Get a grip man. OCA stuffed up. No ifs or butts.

And it was called out with the findings of the recent report.

Do better.

You just cant let up with the aggression and gutter language can you.

It was not about this poor gentleman " taking his sick ......." it is about OCA recognising the particular type of care he required and the problems he had and saying we havent the expertise to give him the care he needs.

I have had some experience with the elderley moving into a care unit. It is so traumatic for them. They worry that once they are there they will never get out. They feel they are tricked. All they want is to be home again. Then the exaggerations, complaints, problems all come, some real some not so real. Respite care comes when the caregivers need a break because the patient is so debiliated and has so many problems they are difficult to care for.

Now, Tea I understand you may have a great deal of sympathy for this guys situation and feel strongly for him and thus your unfortunate and uncontrolled tirade. But unfortunately Oceania is a business owned by shareholders. The company is not the carer of last resort for a permanent or temporary client, now more of a patient and is under no obligation to be forced into it.

So Tea, I think you should take a chill pill before the site moderator chills you out. Take a step back.

[bull....]

Oceania rest home and nurses at fault after man fell in Tokoroa respite care and later died
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/oceania-rest-home-and-nurses-at-fault-after-man-fell-and-later-died-in-tokoroa-respite-care/DH6K4AXKFRB7VA4MA7CNSWWSIM/

[mike2020]

man repeats himself for dramatic effect!!​

[Rawz]

Is this a new incident or the one 5 years ago?

[bull....]

man repeats himself for dramatic effect!!​

Oceania rest home, nurses slated after lack of medication causes woman's death


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/472477/oceania-rest-home-nurses-slated-after-lack-of-medication-causes-woman-s-death

Oceania rest home and nurses at fault after man fell in Tokoroa respite care and later died

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/oceani...A4MA7CNSWWSIM/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/oceania-rest-home-and-nurses-at-fault-after-man-fell-and-later-died-in-tokoroa-respite-care/DH6K4AXKFRB7VA4MA7CNSWWSIM/)

all over the news everywhere .... PR disaster

[Rawz]

Wtf is going on with Oceania?

[allfromacell]

Wtf is going on with Oceania?

It was over 5 years ago... Bull posted another article from 2022.

Trolls are best ignored, unfortunately this site has very little moderation

[Rawz]

It was over 5 years ago... Bull posted another article from 2022.

Trolls are best ignored, unfortunately this site has very little moderation

One article is of a man that had fall. Another is of a woman that wasnt given her medication. No doubt both incidents date back several years.

Not exactly helpful for sales thou. I assume family members do a basic google search when choosing a retirement home for their parents.

[bull....]

It was over 5 years ago... Bull posted another article from 2022.

Trolls are best ignored, unfortunately this site has very little moderation

both news articles are from last 2 days , not yrs ago fool. obviously you have no understanding of PR.

[winner69]

both news articles are from last 2 days , not yrs ago fool. obviously you have no understanding of PR.

It’s up flashing inbred lights as Breaking News on Stuff right now

[777]

both news articles are from last 2 days , not yrs ago fool. obviously you have no understanding of PR.

This incident was discussed from post 19652 onwards bull hence mike2020's post after yours.

[Greekwatchdog]

Plus there was this in Feb of this year:

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/six-dead-influenza-outbreak-strikes-aged-care-home

And just how do you stop influenza? You are all pathetic. I mean we don't here about the xxx people sadly passing from it outside of the RV's.

We all die even when we live in a Retirement Village. You should all be a shamed of yourselves for Grandstanding on this.

You trolls are pathetic waste of space and air.

[mike2020]

Yip. I have some experience of care homes. Stuff happens in all of them. Outbreaks. Difficult residents. I read recently its one of the most traumatic experiences as people usually end up in care when circumstances are out of their control.

[bull....]

yep first hand experience of a loved one's poor care received. good on the news outlets reporting on it. needs to be brought into the open

the only troll's are the complainers who are underwater there profits

[Greekwatchdog]

yep first hand experience of a loved one's poor care received. good on the news outlets reporting on it. needs to be brought into the open

the only troll's are the complainers who are underwater there profits

Not complaining AND AT THE TIME I WAS HAPPY IT CAME OUT thanks Bull. Processors for OCA to correct. As for my Influenza comment you seemed to have missed my point but then you often do when your called out.

You just need something to do. Maybe you should go watch some screen porn on one of those 12 screens you apparently have.

[Snow Leopard]

...who are underwater there profits

underwater their profits. It is underwater their profits.

[allfromacell]

both news articles are from last 2 days , not yrs ago fool. obviously you have no understanding of PR.

RNZ article was posted in August, 2022 and relates to an incident in 2018.

Did you even read it, fool?

[Baa_Baa]

The concerned posters needn't wait for the news to publish stories, they can read all of the Health & Disability Commissioners' aged care / rest home Decisions here: https://www.hdc.org.nz/decisions/search-decisions/?q=resthome

[Daytr]

I think there are a few people on here who need to calm down.

[kiwikeith]

I think there are a few people on here who need to calm down.

Exactly. I come onto this site to get a range of ideas on various shares - not to be entertained by adolescent mudslinging.

[ValueNZ]

It’s up flashing inbred lights as Breaking News on Stuff right now
Flashing inbred lights?

[winner69]

Flashing inbred lights?

Ha ha …in red lights

[mike2020]

Flashing inbred lights?

I just took that as a commentary on Stuffs journo's

[jagger]

As a shareholder this is a ray of good news. It is a fantastic place from what I have seen from the outside and from publicity.

However, I wonder if the deputy Mayor of Auckland will turn up when the more standard Wesley Care Centre closes. I hope standard care beds receive Council attention too.

This deserves a Tui ad.

Desley is part of the Paritai Dr set with Liz Coutts, the only reason she turns up is because it's mutual social clout for both of them within the circles the operate.
Even Liz won't get her chauffeur to take her across town to Wesley.

[jagger]

Lots of fishhooks, so take great care before you make any commitments. And the Australian Age Pension eligibility is means tested.

As it should be here.
So many bludgers on the WINZ benefit.

[ronaldson]

As it should be here.
So many bludgers on the WINZ benefit.

At what point do you consider somebody receiving our Universal Superannuation Benefit (which is taxable) a "bludger"?

[jagger]

The Helier Private Care Residences now open.

15052

Very strange also that LinkedIn is the most active social media platform for their marketing team.

Is this telling the world about the business' wins or just the Board & C-suite looking for back-slaps from their professional network?

[jagger]

At what point do you consider somebody receiving our Universal Superannuation Benefit (which is taxable) a "bludger"?

The moment they receive their first payment, which comes from an unfunded pool.
Biggest beneficiary line item on the state books.

When we're in a cost of living crisis we have asset-backed millionaires going to the WINZ office to collect their unfunded 'entitlements'.
That's a bludger.

Clear enough?

Laughable that you note it's taxable.
Wow. Very generous of you to hand back a small proportion of the 100% free money handed to you - that's a hard-working taxpayer.

[mistaTea]

The moment they receive their first payment, which comes from an unfunded pool.
Biggest beneficiary line item on the state books.

When we're in a cost of living crisis we have asset-backed millionaires going to the WINZ office to collect their unfunded 'entitlements'.
That's a bludger.

Clear enough?

Aye very clear.

If we ever do change it so that it’s means tested then superannuation becomes a benefit instead of an entitlement.

Perhaps one day this kind of change will be made, but it is a change to a long standing social contract between government and its citizens.

[jagger]

Aye very clear.

If we ever do change it so that it’s means tested then superannuation becomes a benefit instead of an entitlement.

Perhaps one day this kind of change will be made, but it is a change to a long standing social contract between government and its citizens.

You can argue semantics, fact is it's a benefit doled out by WINZ.
And the great irony is people who moan most about people getting hand-outs from the state are collecting cheques that are even more unnecessary every week too.
https://figure.nz/chart/2eIStXKBWssxMIze

The only thing more distasteful about paying it is the current recipients rationalising and being offended by anyone correctly calling it out for what it is.

Heh, that 'one day' is guaranteed to come before, or at least conveniently be timed to coincide with my generation retiring.
Bill English even mooted a date in 2040. Conveniently after the most pandered generation in history are safely across the line.

[winner69]

One and frippence in the pound was deducted from my pay every day of my working life and set aside to pay me superannuation at 65

Michael promised that

[mistaTea]

You can argue semantics, fact is it's a benefit doled out by WINZ.
And the great irony is people who moan most about people getting hand-outs from the state are collecting cheques that are even more unnecessary every week too.
https://figure.nz/chart/2eIStXKBWssxMIze

The only thing more distasteful about paying it is the current recipients rationalising and being offended by anyone correctly calling it out for what it is.

Heh, that 'one day' is guaranteed to come before, or at least conveniently be timed to coincide with my generation retiring.
Bill English even mooted a date in 2040. Conveniently after the most pandered generation in history are safely across the line.

I am just pointing out that making the pension means rest is a significant change to the current social contract we have.

Not saying I disagree with it. It probably is inevitable.

But as it stands, the pension is a universal entitlement (not a dole). I don’t think it is just semantics - it is an important distinction.

[mike2020]

Ah come on, how small minded can people be? You give me 500, I spend it, the people I spend it with spend it and I bet it does so many circuits in a week the GST and PAYE alone cover it. Bene bashing. Almost as bad as elderly abuse, eh Bull :mellow:

Working is more than just money.

A bigger problem is a low wage economy, it is negligibly worth going to work when the costs associated with working are barely even covered by the wage compared to a benefit. I have listened to people from the UK saying this is exactly what is happening there.

[mistaTea]

A bigger problem is a low wage economy, it is negligibly worth going to work when the costs associated with working are barely even covered by the wage compared to a benefit. I have listened to people from the UK saying this is exactly what is happening there.

Agreed. Zero incentive to get off the benefit and work full time when you are effectively working for $4 or $5 an hour.

[Baa_Baa]

“Bellevue is a finalist in the Retirement Living and Aged Care category for the upcoming Property Council New Zealand Property Industry Awards.

The development comprises 68 independent living apartments and 71 assisted living care suites.“

[winner69]

“Bellevue is a finalist in the Retirement Living and Aged Care category for the upcoming Property Council New Zealand Property Industry Awards.

The development comprises 68 independent living apartments and 71 assisted living care suites.“

Winner wil be The Helier

After all the category is sponsored by Oceania

Couldn’t allow a Ryman or Summerset or Metlifecare place win

https://www.propertynz.co.nz/property-industry-awards

[davflaws]

Agreed. Zero incentive to get off the benefit and work full time when you are effectively working for $4 or $5 an hour.

How many unemployed people have you known?

I have dealt with many hundreds. Almost all of them (bar twenty or so) would have preferred to have a job rather than be on a benefit.

[Habits]

How many unemployed people have you known?

I have dealt with many hundreds. Almost all of them (bar twenty or so) would have preferred to have a job rather than be on a benefit.

Work/activity just follows some people wherever they go, others manage to avoid it. For better or worse I'm in the former group and managed to make a few dollars along the way

[Baa_Baa]

Winner wil be The Helier

After all the category is sponsored by Oceania

Couldn’t allow a Ryman or Summerset or Metlifecare place win

https://www.propertynz.co.nz/property-industry-awards

Can always rely on you for a cynical spin. To be sure, Oceania have no say in the judging and frankly as category sponsor I think it will work against them (the optics and all that). Besides, I would doubt that the Helier could win, it is too niche high end, unique and not typical of any other NZ RV's, it's targeting the very wealthy who have no need for government subsidies and want a '5 star hotel' style retirement living with all the bells and whistles. Bellevue on the other hand is pure RV, continuum of care and exceptional quality. I think it has a better chance of winning than The Helier.

[Baa_Baa]

I really wish and would like for all of you who have no interest in discussing OCA here, just far cough. The OCA thread is not a proxy thread for all that ails mankind, nor is it a repository for bored non-never-shareholders to vent their spleen on numerous other unrelated matters. Go away, find somewhere else to express your views on non-OCA matters.

[Toddy]

All of the arguing on here is exactly why I would never consider living in one of these Villages.

From an investment point of view. I will invest at rock bottom prices. OCA is not at the bottom yet as this cycle still has time to run.

[kiwikeith]

All of the arguing on here is exactly why I would never consider living in one of these Villages.

From an investment point of view. I will invest at rock bottom prices. OCA is not at the bottom yet as this cycle still has time to run.

Well you won't know if it has reached the bottom until after it was there. The stock market is a forward looking machine so the share price often rises before the financial results do. OCA is currently trading at 43% of NTA per share. At some point either the share price will rise or there will be write-downs to bring the NTA down.

[Daytr]

Well you won't know if it has reached the bottom until after it was there. The stock market is a forward looking machine so the share price often rises before the financial results do. OCA is currently trading at 43% of NTA per share. At some point either the share price will rise or there will be write-downs to bring the NTA down.

I keep people quoting the NTA.
The NTA is bull****.
They get around 20% back after refurb costs on each DMF. This is the asset valuation on each existing villa. That's it. It might only be a tight to occupy They sold, but the liability of buying back the asset at 70% + reburb costs works out to about 150K per unit and that's future value not npv.

The care suites lose money. Asset valuation?? Zero?? Perhaps a slight valuation as people sign up for villas knowing they have somewhere to go to finish out their days.

Then you have undeveloped land, villas etc less $600M of debt.

The real NTA would be lucky to be the current market cap in my view.

[Baa_Baa]

That is imo disingenuous redefining standard accounting practice of calculation of NTA. From page 35 on the 31 March 2023 Balance Sheet (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/24143744/OCA-Annual-Report-31-March-2023-1.pdf), Total Assets (=Assets minus Liabilities) was $962,260,000 / 724,154,779 shares on issue is $1.32 NTA per share. Today it's reported as $1.40 NTA per share (NZX) (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/OCA).

People can by all means make up their own valuation formulae, but redefining standard accounting practice of calculating NTA isn't helpful.

[Daytr]

That is imo disingenuous redefining standard accounting practice of calculation of NTA. From page 35 on the 31 March 2023 Balance Sheet (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/24143744/OCA-Annual-Report-31-March-2023-1.pdf), Total Assets (=Assets minus Liabilities) was $962,260,000 / 724,154,779 shares on issue is $1.32 NTA per share. Today it's reported as $1.40 NTA per share (NZX) (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/OCA).

People can by all means make up their own valuation formulae, but redefining standard accounting practice of calculating NTA isn't helpful.

Hi Baa_Baa, I'm not redefining anything.
Value is helpful, NTA with the accounting method used is not helpful as a form of value in this instance.
The market doesn't obviously value the accounting NTA and rightly so.

[Bjauck]

You can argue semantics, fact is it's a benefit doled out by WINZ.
And the great irony is people who moan most about people getting hand-outs from the state are collecting cheques that are even more unnecessary every week too.
https://figure.nz/chart/2eIStXKBWssxMIze

The only thing more distasteful about paying it is the current recipients rationalising and being offended by anyone correctly calling it out for what it is.

Heh, that 'one day' is guaranteed to come before, or at least conveniently be timed to coincide with my generation retiring.
Bill English even mooted a date in 2040. Conveniently after the most pandered generation in history are safely across the line. I have no problem with those folk who have paid NZ income tax at the top marginal rate for decades receiving a non-means tested superannuation. I am in favour of the more stringent requirements for NZ superannuation for those who had spent decades of their working life abroad.

The generations after the boomers may well be the first in a long time to be poorer than their elders until some of them then become the wealthiest generation as they start to inherit the boomer wealth, unencumbered by any transfer tax in NZ. For some they may then be able to buy a house. However many of the kiwi millennials may already be in OZ as they are giving up on getting ahead in NZ in the meantime. So the inherited NZ wealth may end up benefiting OZ to a large extent.

However in the meantime wealthy NZ boomers means a good potential market for Oceania’s offerings.

[Bjauck]

All of the arguing on here is exactly why I would never consider living in one of these Villages.

From an investment point of view. I will invest at rock bottom prices. OCA is not at the bottom yet as this cycle still has time to run. I am not sure why the arguing on this Sharetrader thread would put you off living in An Oceania village. I often visit an Oceania village and have never seen the residents shouting at each other from their doorsteps hiding behind masks! The worst I have seen are several complaints from residents in the reception book, stating they had been waiting for a week for the maintenance manager.

Visit Oceania’s villages yourself and have a look at the quality of the units and public amenities.

[winner69]

Oh dear, Warriors lose to bottom placed Titans, who hadn’t won a game all season. Warriors now 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses. Fans a bit disappointed with todays result but keeping the faith …we’re a great team and have the goods to go whole way. This is our year. The year will end on a high.

Oceania had a bad week as well with share price down 3 cents ..one of worst weeks in recent times. In spite of some bad publicity and a few detractors the loyal fans are like Warriors fans keeping the faith and in adamantly defending the company and expressing their confidence in the future prospects and that’s it only a matter of time before the share price moves up strongly.

To a casual observer these comments on social media seem to sum up the Warriors - and the way Oceania is going probably sums them up as well.

Wahs looking like a side believing too much of their own hype, thinking things would just happen for them. They’re not working hard enough

The warriors would have to be the most disappointing team in Australian/NZ sport. So much talent but continue to disappoint. Is it an attitude problem? To many key players going missing when it gets tough? [

It seems this may not be our year after all …for both Warriors and Oceania

But keep the faith …UP THE WAHS and GO OCEANIA

[nztx]

Deep Value concepts work in weird & wonderful ways .. in space of mere two years all the Boy's & Girl's
OCA Buck has mysteriously turned into 60c ;)

The Buck has also stopped spitting out dividends

Time to buy some more ? or not just yet ? ;)

We all know where investment yields have gone during the same 2 year term.

Where was this NZX sharemarket darling sitting immediately following the Covid Era ?

What's changed ? The Rest Home Ops are still basically neutral more or probably less now in the sector, the elderly are still clambering to secure an OCA Village roof over their heads, the ledger tab still records the notional ups & down on what the valuer's assessments point to, there's still allegedly deep value hidden somewhere and a large dallop of interest free occupant dough recorded as a liability on the other slate opposite :)

[Antipodean]

Hi Baa_Baa, I'm not redefining anything.


The NTA is bull****.
[...]
The real NTA would be lucky to be the current market cap in my view.

To me this sounds like redefining NTA as a concept.
However if you substituted your word of 'value' instead of 'NTA' in the second sentence I would understand your point being NTA doesn't reflect the value of the company.
NTA is NTA regardless, and is only one of many yardsticks to measure a company on.




The market doesn't obviously value the accounting NTA
Agree here.



...and rightly so.
Disagree here.


The small update from OCA was good to see, even if it wasn't outstanding news many (including myself) have been keen on more market updates so this of some worth regardless.

About one more month until the full reveal for us all.
Place your bets now...

[Daytr]

To me this sounds like redefining NTA as a concept.
However if you substituted your word of 'value' instead of 'NTA' in the second sentence I would understand your point being NTA doesn't reflect the value of the company.
NTA is NTA regardless, and is only one of many yardsticks to measure a company on.



Agree here.


Disagree here.


The small update from OCA was good to see, even if it wasn't outstanding news many (including myself) have been keen on more market updates so this of some worth regardless.

About one more month until the full reveal for us all.
Place your bets now...

Hi Antipodean, what I am trying to say, perhaps poorly, is that I have seen a quite a few posts referring to the NTA as being some figure oto base the valuation for the company on, when it's clearly not.

Accounting or not, assets are valued, not what they cost but on what they return. If an asset is losing money is it an asset or liability? And more importantly, what is someone prepared to pay for an investment that is losing money.
I am referring to the operational day to day business of servicing villas & care suites not sales & resales etc.

[mfd]

Hi Antipodean, what I am trying to say, perhaps poorly, is that I have seen a quite a few posts referring to the NTA as being some figure oto base the valuation for the company on, when it's clearly not.

Accounting or not, assets are valued, not what they cost but on what they return. If an asset is losing money is it an asset or liability? And more importantly, what is someone prepared to pay for an investment that is losing money.
I am referring to the operational day to day business of servicing villas & care suites not sales & resales etc.

OCAs valuations have been met in their recent divestments, did they happen to pick the 9 properties that were valued correctly and everything else is overinflated by 50%?

"This will bring the total number of sites exited, divested and closed since the start of FY2024 to nine, with aggregate gross sales proceeds of circa $40m and in line with book value"

[ronaldson]

OCAs valuations have been met in their recent divestments, did they happen to pick the 9 properties that were valued correctly and everything else is overinflated by 50%?

"This will bring the total number of sites exited, divested and closed since the start of FY2024 to nine, with aggregate gross sales proceeds of circa $40m and in line with book value"

Circa $40m is only $4.5m each. I doubt you could replace the land and buildings component for that. So the "in business" worth is very little.

I have been wondering who are the acquirers - not just from OCA but the other listed entities who have been similarly divesting. It would be interesting to know, to better understand this part of the sector, as any reporting ( unlike the Strathellen sale in Timaru) of that aspect is rare.

Come to think of it Arran Court (ex RAD, where I am an ex-holder) is not too far away from where I live. I will drop by and enquire.

[mfd]

Circa $40m is only $4.5m each. I doubt you could replace the land and buildings component for that. So the "in business" worth is very little.

I have been wondering who are the acquirers - not just from OCA but the other listed entities who have been similarly divesting. It would be interesting to know, to better understand this part of the sector, as any reporting ( unlike the Strathellen sale in Timaru) of that aspect is rare.

Come to think of it Arran Court (ex RAD, where I am an ex-holder) is not too far away from where I live. I will drop by and enquire.

Without knowing the properties it's difficult to comment on replacement cost. But when there is discussion over whether OCAs book values are reasonable or not, the fact that recent transactions took place 'in line' with book values looks extremely relevant to me.

[percy]

Without knowing the properties it's difficult to comment on replacement cost. But when there is discussion over whether OCAs book values are reasonable or not, the fact that recent transactions took place 'in line' with book values looks extremely relevant to me.

I agree recent sales confirm book values.

[winner69]

Without knowing the properties it's difficult to comment on replacement cost. But when there is discussion over whether OCAs book values are reasonable or not, the fact that recent transactions took place 'in line' with book values looks extremely relevant to me.

Probably been ‘writing down’ the book value of these properties over the last few years …..been quite a lot of impairment $s and who knows the detail of the ‘independent’ valuation of each property

I’d say these 9 properties ‘valued’ as to what they hopefully thought they would get for them

[thegreatestben]

If anyone knows of the land parcel addresses that have been divested and the sale has settled I can have a look - feel free to pm.

[Daytr]

Without knowing the properties it's difficult to comment on replacement cost. But when there is discussion over whether OCAs book values are reasonable or not, the fact that recent transactions took place 'in line' with book values looks extremely relevant to me.


I agree recent sales confirm book values.

How many blocks of villas did they sell off? How many care suite buildings did they divest of in those recent sales? Undeveloped land is not a significant part of the NTA and yes I would hope this is correctly valued in the books.

It's the asset valuation of the operating villas & care suites that I am questioning.

[mfd]

Probably been ‘writing down’ the book value of these properties over the last few years …..been quite a lot of impairment $s and who knows the detail of the ‘independent’ valuation of each property

I’d say these 9 properties ‘valued’ as to what they hopefully thought they would get for them

Convince the valuers to price down the 'listed for sale' properties while still overvaluing the rest? Pretty sneaky, if true. The difference would have to be enormous to justify the current share price.

[mfd]

How many blocks of villas did they sell off? How many care suite buildings did they divest of in those recent sales? Undeveloped land is not a significant part of the NTA and yes I would hope this is correctly valued in the books.

It's the asset valuation of the operating villas & care suites that I am questioning.

That's fair, looks like several of the sales were blocks of land or partially completed sites. There was this from the half year report:

"Oceania has divested, closed and exited leasehold interests at six care centres and villages. The sale of two Auckland sites was completed on 29 August 2023 at an amount above independent valuation."

[forest]

If anyone knows of the land parcel addresses that have been divested and the sale has settled I can have a look - feel free to pm.

Amberwood, 499 Don Buck Rd Massey, West Auckland.
On site approximately 30 Rest Home units of the older style, and approximately 30 high need type or hospital rooms (single) build later maybe early 2000.

Amberwood has a road sign which used to note it was part of the OCA group, this part of the OCA group has been painted over so I assume it is not longer owned by OCA.

[allfromacell]

Amberwood, 499 Don Buck Rd Massey, West Auckland.
On site approximately 30 Rest Home units of the older style, and approximately 30 high need type or hospital rooms (single) build later maybe early 2000.

Amberwood has a road sign which used to note it was part of the OCA group, this part of the OCA group has been painted over so I assume it is not longer owned by OCA.

Looks to be now owned by 'Legacy Healthcare' (https://www.legacyhealthcare.co.nz/amberwood/).

Shareholders are David John GRAINGER and Rosa GRAINGER who also own Sunrise Healthcare Ltd. You can read a text based interview from 2019 with them here: https://businessviewoceania.com/sunrise-healthcare-ltd-just-like-home/

[thegreatestben]

Yes sorry slow reply - the actual owning entity is Star Light Property Limited


Last Official Sale Price: $9,514,423
Last Official Sale Date: 09-May-2023

It settled on 29-Aug-2023, that's 79 working days.