OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Bjauck]

A lot of people's settings are set to American English. But you are right it's boring and you raised it in the first place and not for the first time. But it's boring. 藍
Quite a few posters on the Board use American spellings and/or idioms. Perhaps the under 50’s especially have been influenced by an American English dominated internet. Maybe American English is trendier than British Commonwealth English? I’ve certainly noticed more Kiwis use “gotten’ instead of “got” than when I was at school (1980’s).

[ronaldson]

Quarter million traded at 63c at market close. First sign of legs for a while. Now that the dust has settled on the index exit a rerate could be in order?

[WAIKEN]

I agree Ronaldson
I see OCR as a takeover target
Manipulation downwards pre the removal from the index
Shades of Metlife for me
I dont believe we have seen the end of a bid for Arvida either.

[winner69]

Maybe market happy now Brent is going

Market cap up $55m since the announcement of his ‘resignation’

[Baa_Baa]

Maybe market happy now Brent is going

Market cap up $55m since the announcement of his ‘resignation’

14.5% in 6 days, blink and you'll miss it. $0.55 looks like a gift now doesn't it?

[winner69]

14.5% in 6 days, blink and you'll miss it. $0.55 looks like a gift now doesn't it?

Sure does

Be +30% next week and that’s only back to the low 70’s

Months time +60%?

[Balance]

Quarter million traded at 63c at market close. First sign of legs for a while. Now that the dust has settled on the index exit a rerate could be in order?

Interesting price action indeed.

Now why would the big buyers wait until market close to pay up rather than accumulate at the lower levels right through the day?

Looks like the reverse action of what was happening when the index selling was taking place - ie. sellers waited for bids to build up and then, sold to the bids.

Now we have buyers waiting for the offers to build up and then, compete to buy at the close.

[Balance]

Sure does

Be +30% next week and that’s only back to the low 70’s

Months time +60%?


34m shares traded yesterday so pretty much bang on with the calculation of the number of shares to be exited indeed.

Same broker contact made the point to me yesterday that they estimated that of the 21m shares traded since the MSCI index announcement, most of the stock were either shorts or institutional sell down.

Obviously, their selldown were done in anticipation of a much lower price yesterday to cover shorts or portfolio reset.

And they have done well -sp was 70c when MSCI announcement was made - so a nice 15.7% gain and progressively lower gains for those who sold at 70c etc etc and have reset or covered at 59c yesterday.

Where does the sp go from here?

His view is that the sp will go back to 65c and then, the traders who got set at 59c will take their profit. Then, industry & company specific developments and fundamentals will take over to determine the next price level until OCA reports its results.

Happy trading, folks!

65c by end of the week and $1.00 next vweek when takeover is announced, W69? :p

[Baa_Baa]

65c by end of the week and $1.00 next vweek when takeover is announced, W69? :p

You forgot the CR :D which is apparently almost inevitable :eek2:. It's a Traders stock now, let them have their fun, or have punt on the side yourself, a bit of chump change it might be but 15-30-50% maybe more, upside risk might be worth a fling. It's what the traders have been holding out for, or maybe they're in already, into the very short term uptrend. No reason a long can't have a fillip on the side as well.

Who would've known a boring LT investment like a retirement company would provide so much SP volatility over the past 3-4 years as to attract the traders attention. But it has, that's the fact, and to those inclined it presents brilliant short medium term momentum trades. They just make a bob for the short termers, or boost the long term returns if you get it right.

Fascinating times when a whole sector disconnects from long term underlying fundamentals and goes feral on the sharemarket, over a sustained and obvious period of time. Must be rewards in there for those who can distinguish between the two. A case study in the tensions between patience and impatience.

[ValueNZ]

Fascinating times when a whole sector disconnects from long term underlying fundamentals and goes feral on the sharemarket, over a sustained and obvious period of time. Must be rewards in there for those who can distinguish between the two. A case study in the tensions between patience and impatience.
Yeah fascinating, an incredible opportunity for people like us who have a long term mindset. Just accumulate now, relax, and watch the voting machine turn into scales.

And the longer the SP stays disconnected from the underlying fundamentals the better off we are. :t_up:

[Bjauck]

Yeah fascinating, an incredible opportunity for people like us who have a long term mindset. Just accumulate now, relax, and watch the voting machine turn into scales.

And the longer the SP stays disconnected from the underlying fundamentals the better off we are. :t_up: It is well time for this Cinderella to leave the scullery and to go to the ball!

[nztx]

It is well time for this Cinderella to leave the scullery and to go to the ball!


On her own or on an unidentified suitor's shoulders after putting the contributions jar around first ? :)

[winner69]

……

Fascinating times when a whole sector disconnects from long term underlying fundamentals and goes feral on the sharemarket, over a sustained and obvious period of time. Must be rewards in there for those who can distinguish between the two. A case study in the tensions between patience and impatience.

Patience v impatience

Patience ….loving hope hoping like anything you are right and the market is utterly wrong and hoping like anything that things will come right …whatever right is …one day

Impatience ….in this context those in for a quick buck

[Bjauck]

Patience v impatience

Patience ….loving hope hoping like anything you are right and the market is utterly wrong and hoping like anything that things will come right …whatever right is …one day

Impatience ….in this context those in for a quick buck
We definitely need the patience of Job with OCA.

[dubya]

I'm particularly interested to see if the Directors (who are all under water with their Holdings) have been buying during the recent share price weakness?!

[Daytr]

John Key thinks property prices will double in the next 10 years. Seems optimistic, but I wouldn't bet against him.

This would put the profit of resales on steroids.
Ride the macro!
Or ignore it and just be lucky.

[Baa_Baa]

I'm particularly interested to see if the Directors (who are all under water with their Holdings) have been buying during the recent share price weakness?!

If they have been buying, or selling, they they are obliged to provide a disclosure notice.

[Balance]

I'm particularly interested to see if the Directors (who are all under water with their Holdings) have been buying during the recent share price weakness?!

Long and wrong. Why would they buy more?

[winner69]

barfoot and Thomson sold 633 residential properties in Auckland in February.

Up 54% on February last year

Good signs for Oceania

[jagger]

John Key thinks property prices will double in the next 10 years. Seems optimistic, but I wouldn't bet against him.

This would put the profit of resales on steroids.
Ride the macro!
Or ignore it and just be lucky.

Land values may well double but it's a common mistake to conflate land value and dwelling value.
Key makes the same mistake here.

Centrally zoned land is likely to inflate over time as there is more demand to live close to jobs and well-located amenities.
But if zoning is relaxed on that land to allow for more dwelling yield, to the extent dwelling supply exceeds demand, then dwelling values may decrease in real terms.
We've seen it in Wellington as a shift in sales mix to apartments has meant the simplistic measure of 'property' prices has been flat.

Which actually isn't a bad thing in a country with one of, if not, the most obscene price-income ratios in the world.
Cheerleading housing shortages caused by artificial zoning restrictions that prohibit the market from functioning is a particularly toxic kiwi trait. Mostly exhibited by elder generations.

In terms of what that means for RV operators, they'll likely build as many 2 bedroom apartments as possible under zoning permissions so are more exposed to dwelling price indices.

[nztx]

Gee -- all this talk of takeovers & deep value .. just couldn't help myself - had to get a few lamp posts onboard to get OCA onto the active watchlist ;)

[Daytr]

Land values may well double but it's a common mistake to conflate land value and dwelling value.
Key makes the same mistake here.

Centrally zoned land is likely to inflate over time as there is more demand to live close to jobs and well-located amenities.
But if zoning is relaxed on that land to allow for more dwelling yield, to the extent dwelling supply exceeds demand, then dwelling values may decrease in real terms.
We've seen it in Wellington as a shift in sales mix to apartments has meant the simplistic measure of 'property' prices has been flat.

Which actually isn't a bad thing in a country with one of, if not, the most obscene price-income ratios in the world.
Cheerleading housing shortages caused by artificial zoning restrictions that prohibit the market from functioning is a particularly toxic kiwi trait. Mostly exhibited by elder generations.

In terms of what that means for RV operators, they'll likely build as many 2 bedroom apartments as possible under zoning permissions so are more exposed to dwelling price indices.

Fair point, all though the cost of building has also increased quite dramatically, especially in the last decade.

[bull....]

John Key thinks property prices will double in the next 10 years. Seems optimistic, but I wouldn't bet against him.

This would put the profit of resales on steroids.
Ride the macro!
Or ignore it and just be lucky.

highly unlikely in my opinion they will double without a corresponding increase in wages or opening up to rich foreigners to buy all the housing stock and turn nz ers into a renting nation.
anyway this fellow who has a track record like key says this


Tony Alexander: Rate hike rumours put brakes on the housing market


https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-unfounded-rate-hike-rumours-put-brakes-on-the-housing-market-45103

and my opinion is flat market all year .... no good for RV stocks

[Daytr]

highly unlikely in my opinion they will double without a corresponding increase in wages or opening up to rich foreigners to buy all the housing stock and turn nz ers into a renting nation.
anyway this fellow who has a track record like key says this


Tony Alexander: Rate hike rumours put brakes on the housing market


https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-unfounded-rate-hike-rumours-put-brakes-on-the-housing-market-45103

and my opinion is flat market all year .... no good for RV stocks

Deleted .....

[winner69]

Up the Wahs, this is our year

Oceania faithful chant 'this is our year'

First game of season and Warriors go 12 nil up over the Sharks ......but end up losing 12-16 to a team they often beat

One fan commented 'Piss poor leadership and discipline and the expected stink attitude will suggest a rough 2024 for the warriors'

Methinks it's going to be one long year for both Wahs and Oceania faithful .....no championship for one and a languishing share price for the other.

[bull....]

New reports suggest New Zealand's housing market is stalling with "flattish" growth in the first half of the year expected

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/03/housing-market-stagnates-in-new-reports-from-bnz-new-zealand-home-loans.html

[bull....]

New Zealand's average dwelling value increased by just $351 in February According to the QV House Price Index (HPI)

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/126783/new-zealands-average-dwelling-value-increased-just-351-february-aucklands-average

hammertime if property stagnates or declines

[Daytr]

New Zealand's average dwelling value increased by just $351 in February According to the QV House Price Index (HPI)

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/126783/new-zealands-average-dwelling-value-increased-just-351-february-aucklands-average

hammertime if property stagnates or declines




Seems the tone on interest rates has significantly softened since the RBNZ last meeting. Banks easing rates slightly since then.
I think we are through the worst of the housing market.

[thegreatestben]

Refixing the lot at the beginning of April. I’ll be leaving it til the absolute last minute the way things are going.

[Balance]

New reports suggest New Zealand's housing market is stalling with "flattish" growth in the first half of the year expected

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/03/housing-market-stagnates-in-new-reports-from-bnz-new-zealand-home-loans.html


Let's do a 'stock take' of the factors behind the property market :

1. Super low interest rates drove the property market boom over 2020 to 2022 when the market peaked.

2. Offshore buying drove the property market before then - especially China buyers.

3. Strong migrant flows also drove the market before 2018.

Fast forward to today :

1. Days of super low interest rates are over - reversal of boom back to more realistic levels. What is realistic level?

2. Ban on overseas buyers still in place. China buyers are grappling with their own property problems in any case.

3. Migrant flows are very strong - record levels - but 'quality' of migrants such that majority cannot afford NZ house prices. Hence, the rental squeeze because that's all that the workers from Philippines, India, Fiji and South America can afford.

Still plenty of supply of properties out there (record listings according to Barfoot & Thompson) - aided by tens of thousands of NZers leaving for Australia as they mostly leave a house to sell or a property to be rented out.

So how likely are we to see the property market boom again? And when?

PS. Don't listen to the banks too much as they have a very deep vested interest in keeping property prices up. They are nursing some serious default issues at present with developers and mortgagees.

[Baa_Baa]

Let's do a 'stock take' of the factors behind the property market :

1. Super low interest rates drove the property market boom over 2020 to 2022 when the market peaked.

2. Offshore buying drove the property market before then - especially China buyers.

3. Strong migrant flows also drove the market before 2018.

Fast forward to today :

1. Days of super low interest rates are over - reversal of boom back to more realistic levels. What is realistic level?

2. Ban on overseas buyers still in place. China buyers are grappling with their own property problems in any case.

3. Migrant flows are very strong - record levels - but 'quality' of migrants such that majority cannot afford NZ house prices. Hence, the rental squeeze because that's all that the workers from Philippines, India, Fiji and South America can afford.

Still plenty of supply of properties out there (record listings according to Barfoot & Thompson) - aided by tens of thousands of NZers leaving for Australia as they mostly leave a house to sell or a property to be rented out.

So how likely are we to see the property market boom again? And when?

PS. Don't listen to the banks too much as they have a very deep vested interest in keeping property prices up. They are nursing some serious default issues at present with developers and mortgagees.

What is the point you’re trying to make on this thread, OCA?

How does that affect cashed up retirees moving into OCA retirement homes, villages and apartments?

[Balance]

What is the point you’re trying to make on this thread, OCA?

How does that affect cashed up retirees moving into OCA retirement homes, villages and apartments?

If you think the state of the property market has no impact on unit sales of retirement villages, then there’s no relevance in my post.

I happen to think that there is a direct impact as all the retirement village operators have paid up for expensive land and developed costly units in the last 2 years plus more to be completed - they require most retirees to sell their existing residences at equivalent high prices to buy the completed RV units.

St Helier of OCA is a case in point - where are all the wealthy cashed up retirees queuing up to buy the 121 units starting from the $1.7m one bedroom unit? They are waiting for their Kohimarama & St Heliers property prices to go up (again) so they can afford to buy into the St Helier.

If I am wrong in my assessment, please let us know.

[winner69]

What is the point you’re trying to make on this thread, OCA?

How does that affect cashed up retirees moving into OCA retirement homes, villages and apartments?

Don't forget the call ....it's all about sales sales and even more sales

REINZ Feb data out soon .....we'll get a feel for how the number of sales are going ...still at very low levels

[Daytr]

Let's do a 'stock take' of the factors behind the property market :

1. Super low interest rates drove the property market boom over 2020 to 2022 when the market peaked.

2. Offshore buying drove the property market before then - especially China buyers.

3. Strong migrant flows also drove the market before 2018.

Fast forward to today :

1. Days of super low interest rates are over - reversal of boom back to more realistic levels. What is realistic level?

2. Ban on overseas buyers still in place. China buyers are grappling with their own property problems in any case.

3. Migrant flows are very strong - record levels - but 'quality' of migrants such that majority cannot afford NZ house prices. Hence, the rental squeeze because that's all that the workers from Philippines, India, Fiji and South America can afford.

Still plenty of supply of properties out there (record listings according to Barfoot & Thompson) - aided by tens of thousands of NZers leaving for Australia as they mostly leave a house to sell or a property to be rented out.

So how likely are we to see the property market boom again? And when?

PS. Don't listen to the banks too much as they have a very deep vested interest in keeping property prices up. They are nursing some serious default issues at present with developers and mortgagees.

The workers you refer I.e from the Philippines, Fiji etc are they part of the immigration numbers? Or are most of them on RDO visas I.e seasonal workers.

You are right that many immigrants can't afford housing in NZ, but from what I am seeing anecdotally after a year or two which is about how long it takes to get their permanent residency they have saved enough for a deposit.
It probably depends what part of NZ they are based, but the area I live has very expensive real estate.

Most if the other points you raise have been the case for some time. Some of those are likely to improve particularly interest rates.
The Government will also reintroduce tax deductibility for investors in a year's time.

[Bjauck]

The workers you refer I.e from the Philippines, Fiji etc are they part of the immigration numbers? Or are most of them on RDO visas I.e seasonal workers.

You are right that many immigrants can't afford housing in NZ, but from what I am seeing anecdotally after a year or two which is about how long it takes to get their permanent residency they have saved enough for a deposit.
It probably depends what part of NZ they are based, but the area I live has very expensive real estate.

Most if the other points you raise have been the case for some time. Some of those are likely to improve particularly interest rates.
The Government will also reintroduce tax deductibility for investors in a year's time. From what I have seen, the immigrants from the “third world” are motivated to try to save. If not here then in Australia.

However as well all know the boom in NZ house prices has been predicated on the constraints of new housing supply failing to keep up with the demand from immigration, coupled with a tax system generally favouring capital gains rather than income and particularly favouring the returns from leveraged investor housing in an inflationary market for house prices.

The new government seems to be keen on trying to keep that environment, including allowing more foreign buyers (not to be confused with demand from immigration). How long house price inflation let alone real (in excess of cpi inflation) house price inflation can be maintained is any one’s guess.

I don’t think the ORA system necessarily needs a inflationary housing market, in real terms, to be profitable for suppliers or appealing to consumers. Provided the ORAs are priced appropriately and demand for them is maintained.

[Balance]

The workers you refer I.e from the Philippines, Fiji etc are they part of the immigration numbers? Or are most of them on RDO visas I.e seasonal workers.

You are right that many immigrants can't afford housing in NZ, but from what I am seeing anecdotally after a year or two which is about how long it takes to get their permanent residency they have saved enough for a deposit.
It probably depends what part of NZ they are based, but the area I live has very expensive real estate.

Most if the other points you raise have been the case for some time. Some of those are likely to improve particularly interest rates.
The Government will also reintroduce tax deductibility for investors in a year's time.

RDOs are not included in migration numbers as the migrate numbers are for those coming into NZ for > 1 year. Includes those on temporary visa however - ie. work and student.

The influx of 260,000 migrants (not net) into NZ in the last year is unprecedented and you will find that most will not be able to scrap together a house deposit even after 5 years, let alone get a loan from a bank!

How much do nurses, bus drivers, factory workers, labourers and care givers get a year? Plus many send money home to support their families.

House behind me is a transit home for care givers from the Philippines & Korea - absolutely lovely people (the smell of their cooking can be rather over-powering in the mornings! Kimchi!) so know them well.

[Daytr]

RDOs are not included in migration numbers as the migrate numbers are for those coming into NZ for > 1 year. Includes those on temporary visa however - ie. work and student.

The influx of 260,000 migrants (not net) into NZ in the last year is unprecedented and you will find that most will not be able to scrap together a house deposit even after 5 years, let alone get a loan from a bank!

How much do nurses, bus drivers, factory workers, labourers and care givers get a year? Plus many send money home to support their families.

House behind me is a transit home for care givers from the Philippines & Korea - absolutely lovely people (the smell of their cooking can be rather over-powering in the mornings! Kimchi!) so know them well.

Yep, I think it's a mix, some come with money I.e from the UK, SA to a lesser degree, others don't.
But if they are renting and that's some of the reasons why rents have sky rocketed in recent times, this will in turn attract investors once the tax deductibility returns. In my area a 4 bdr house is renting for circa $1000 per week!

Some of the other points you raise are looking in the rear view mirror, I.e things I was looking at 18 months ago that would bring about a downturn in the market. That has already happened with prices down 20% in some areas. Has it finished? In the short term maybe, maybe not.

But one thing I am sure of is that there are more buyers than sellers out there.

[jagger]

highly unlikely in my opinion they will double without a corresponding increase in wages or opening up to rich foreigners to buy all the housing stock and turn nz ers into a renting nation.
anyway this fellow who has a track record like key says this


Tony Alexander: Rate hike rumours put brakes on the housing market


https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-unfounded-rate-hike-rumours-put-brakes-on-the-housing-market-45103

and my opinion is flat market all year .... no good for RV stocks

Tony Alexander and track record hahaha :lol:

October 2021
Tony Alexander Update - berating the latest HPI forecasts from the RBNZ & Treasury
https://www.ffgl.co.nz/latest-news/tony-alexander-update-october-2021/

"The problem with models is that ... predictions get generated and relied on which in hindsight are preposterous"

"This is perhaps what happened in May this year when both the Reserve Bank and Treasury predicted that house prices over the coming year to June 30, 2022,
would only increase by about 1%. Their forecast price gain was achieved in just the first two weeks of July, and since May average NZ house prices have risen by 5.4%."

"A key reason for the poor forecasting performance of the two groups with the greatest number of economists in one place is likely to be excessive belief in the impact
which their policies have in the housing market and perhaps the economy overall."

*Emphasis added by me

Nek minute.

June 2022
REINZ House Price Index

"HPI indicates that housing market value nationwide has lifted 0.7% year-on-year"


Never forget.
This guy is a paid up industry shill.

[jagger]

The workers you refer I.e from the Philippines, Fiji etc are they part of the immigration numbers? Or are most of them on RDO visas I.e seasonal workers.

You are right that many immigrants can't afford housing in NZ, but from what I am seeing anecdotally after a year or two which is about how long it takes to get their permanent residency they have saved enough for a deposit.
It probably depends what part of NZ they are based, but the area I live has very expensive real estate.

Most if the other points you raise have been the case for some time. Some of those are likely to improve particularly interest rates.
The Government will also reintroduce tax deductibility for investors in a year's time.

Really, immigrants from the third world moving to a country with some of the highest living costs in the world, and earning in most cases less than median wage (~25/hr) are able to save a deposit?

Honestly I'd love to see the stats on that because if it's just vibes then it's totally (TOTALLY) lacking in perspective of how hard it is living on a wage like that in NZ at the moment.

Most of these people will have next to no disposable income remaining at the end of a work week, especially if they live in Auckland.
Then what? You think they are able to save, let's be generous and assume 5% of $600k, $30,000 within 1-2 years?

Really? People really believe this happens?
Are we that brain damaged by our obscene real estate market?

[mike2020]

It does happen, I literally know people from the Philippines who have bought here, some fairly recently. I also know how hard they are finding todays interest rates and I know a few renting who find it even harder. A percentage of them do not plan on retiring here, over 50%. Not stats just people I talk to. They now consider they had a better quality of life back home, see the irony?

They don't tend to spend large like kiwis do. Most have kids in school here and are on two incomes and often one is a higher earner with a trade.

[Bjauck]

It does happen, I literally know people from the Philippines who have bought here, some fairly recently. I also know how hard they are finding todays interest rates and I know a few renting who find it even harder. A percentage of them do not plan on retiring here, over 50%. Not stats just people I talk to. They now consider they had a better quality of life back home, see the irony?

They don't tend to spend large like kiwis do. Most have kids in school here and are on two incomes and often one is a higher earner with a trade.
It is sad though that many families with both parents working hard cannot establish their own homes here. And sad too that many young Kiwis stay overseas for longer and not just for a few years of OE. Coming home to raise a family in a stand alone house with a garden for the kids is beyond reach for many without wealthy parents. So why not stay in an apartment overseas.

I guess it is why this coalition want to open up the housing market more to local investors and rich overseas based buyers again, ‘coz locally based buyers who just want to buy a home just don’t have enough money to keep this Ponzi-like scheme afloat.

[Bjauck]

Back down goes the share price. OCA is really a stock for traders at the moment.

[Daytr]

Really, immigrants from the third world moving to a country with some of the highest living costs in the world, and earning in most cases less than median wage (~25/hr) are able to save a deposit?

Honestly I'd love to see the stats on that because if it's just vibes then it's totally (TOTALLY) lacking in perspective of how hard it is living on a wage like that in NZ at the moment.

Most of these people will have next to no disposable income remaining at the end of a work week, especially if they live in Auckland.
Then what? You think they are able to save, let's be generous and assume 5% of $600k, $30,000 within 1-2 years?

Really? People really believe this happens?
Are we that brain damaged by our obscene real estate market?

I wasn't referring to immigrants from the 3rd world unless you call the UK & South Africa 3rd world.
But I have also across plenty of immigrants from Europe & the States. There are also a lot of Kiwis that have returned home in the last few years after successful careers overseas.

And not all immigrants are earning minimum wage either.

And some immigrants, especially some farm workers are provided with accommodation, so actually they can save a lot of what they earn.

[Balance]

I wasn't referring to immigrants from the 3rd world unless you call the UK & South Africa 3rd world.
But I have also across plenty of immigrants from Europe & the States. There are also a lot of Kiwis that have returned home in the last few years after successful careers overseas.

And not all immigrants are earning minimum wage either.

And some immigrants, especially some farm workers are provided with accommodation, so actually they can save a lot of what they earn.

South Africa is definitely not 1st world in the same league as UK!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/immigration-boom-rolls-on-but-record-number-of-kiwis-left-in-2023/T3ZQPZHEWBF3VF5OYTMFNJBYEI/

"The net migration gain in 2023 was mainly driven by citizens of India, the Philippines, China, Fiji and South Africa."

[Joshuatree]

I wasn't referring to immigrants from the 3rd world unless you call the UK & South Africa 3rd world.
But I have also across plenty of immigrants from Europe & the States. There are also a lot of Kiwis that have returned home in the last few years after successful careers overseas.

And not all immigrants are earning minimum wage either.

And some immigrants, especially some farm workers are provided with accommodation, so actually they can save a lot of what they earn.
Correct and they work hard,I know some ,husband and wife,he has two jobs.They don't know what the word holiday means and they spend very little on luxuries like eating out.Fast savers this example.

[Balance]

Back down goes the share price. OCA is really a stock for traders at the moment.

There is no conviction behind OCA's bounce from the index sell down - 30m+ shares are a lot for the market to absorb but absorb the market will until OCA's sp bottoms out.

Traders cannot sell forever.

[Balance]

Absolutely wonderful btw to have that female loser, Joshuatree, in Ignore.

So very very satisfying! :t_up:

[bull....]

There is no conviction behind OCA's bounce from the index sell down - 30m+ shares are a lot for the market to absorb but absorb the market will until OCA's sp bottoms out.

Traders cannot sell forever.

just buy then sell non - stop 1c bid / offer is all it takes over time to make lots. OCA good trader stock. i be surprised if OCA, RYM , ARV dont go new lows at some stage

[Joshuatree]

Absolutely wonderful btw to have that female loser, Joshuatree, in Ignore.

So very very satisfying! :t_up:

It's great being rent free in BlubberBalances head👍😉

[winner69]

Good news …REINZ report huge increase in number of sales in February v February last year. Auckland was standout.

More momentum in sales activity and getting back to historical levels

Good for OCA as sales, sales and even more sales are needed

And prices pretty good as well
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Web/Web/News/News-Articles/Market-updates/REINZ_February_data_More%20sales_prices_rise_activ ity_builds_in_property%20market.aspx?name=REINZ_Fe bruary_data_More%20sales_prices_rise_activity_buil ds_in_property%20market

[Balance]

just buy then sell non - stop 1c bid / offer is all it takes over time to make lots. OCA good trader stock. i be surprised if OCA, RYM , ARV dont go new lows at some stage

Why would they make new lows?

Market has already valued in further falls in property market values in their share prices - beyond the current state of the market.

[Bjauck]

Absolutely wonderful btw to have that female loser, Joshuatree, in Ignore.

So very very satisfying! :t_up: How is gender relevant?

[Bjauck]

Good news …REINZ report huge increase in number of sales in February v February last year. Auckland was standout.

More momentum in sales activity and getting back to historical levels

Good for OCA as sales, sales and even more sales are needed

And prices pretty good as well
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Web/Web/News/News-Articles/Market-updates/REINZ_February_data_More%20sales_prices_rise_activ ity_builds_in_property%20market.aspx?name=REINZ_Fe bruary_data_More%20sales_prices_rise_activity_buil ds_in_property%20market The market had been subdued leading up to the election. A relief rally now that the government has changed and the new government is introducing policies to bolster house prices.

[Balance]

Good news …REINZ report huge increase in number of sales in February v February last year. Auckland was standout.

More momentum in sales activity and getting back to historical levels

Good for OCA as sales, sales and even more sales are needed

And prices pretty good as well
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Web/Web/News/News-Articles/Market-updates/REINZ_February_data_More%20sales_prices_rise_activ ity_builds_in_property%20market.aspx?name=REINZ_Fe bruary_data_More%20sales_prices_rise_activity_buil ds_in_property%20market

Auckland is where it really needs to happen to drag the property market up further. Still too many NZers leaving for Oz and selling out according to our local B&T real estate agent. Says it is making her wonder if she should do the same herself!

Meanwhile, anyone notice that there is a big step change in interest rates for OCA even while debt levels grow ever bigger?

2022/2023 : Interest is charged using the BKBM Bill rate plus a margin and line fee. Interest rates applicable in the
year to 31 March 2023 ranged from 4.05% to 7.52%(March 2022: 2.48% to 3.7%).

Debt 2022 - $383m
Debt 2023 - $558m

2024 : Interest is charged using the BKBM Bill rate plus a margin and line fee. Interest rates
applicable in the six month period to 30 September 2023 ranged from 7.05% to 7.13%.

Debt Sept 2024 - $621m (going higher as capital commitment of $88m)

So expect interest cost to increase to around $23m for the next half year.

[Balance]

How is gender relevant?

JT is a indoctrinated female devotee of Clueless Cindy - nobody is allowed to write anything remotely negative about Cindy without JT jumping into the deep end.

[Greekwatchdog]

So again OCA thread gets personalised with stupid attacks and not respecting others views without name calling. When is admin to do something about this? This thread is so Toxic. No wonders posters are leaving. Grow up and take your childish dribble elsewhere.

[Balance]

So again OCA thread gets personalised with stupid attacks and not respecting others views without name calling. When is admin to do something about this? This thread is so Toxic. No wonders posters are leaving. Grow up and take your childish dribble elsewhere.

I have already placed JT on Ignore but she persists in hanging around like a bad smell from the Ardern sewer. What do you suggest we do?

[Greekwatchdog]

I have already placed JT on Ignore but she persists in hanging around like a bad smell from the Ardern sewer. What do you suggest we do?

Not engage or comment. Walk away. Both sides.

[Balance]

Auckland is where it really needs to happen to drag the property market up further. Still too many NZers leaving for Oz and selling out according to our local B&T real estate agent. Says it is making her wonder if she should do the same herself!

Meanwhile, anyone notice that there is a big step change in interest rates for OCA even while debt levels grow ever bigger?

2022/2023 : Interest is charged using the BKBM Bill rate plus a margin and line fee. Interest rates applicable in the
year to 31 March 2023 ranged from 4.05% to 7.52%(March 2022: 2.48% to 3.7%).

Debt 2022 - $383m
Debt 2023 - $558m

2024 : Interest is charged using the BKBM Bill rate plus a margin and line fee. Interest rates
applicable in the six month period to 30 September 2023 ranged from 7.05% to 7.13%.

Debt Sept 2024 - $621m (going higher as capital commitment of $88m)

So expect interest cost to increase to around $23m for the next half year.

Looks to me like there's a bigger operating loss to be reported for F2024?

No possibility of dividends for a while?

[Poet]

Auckland is where it really needs to happen to drag the property market up further. Still too many NZers leaving for Oz and selling out according to our local B&T real estate agent. Says it is making her wonder if she should do the same herself!

Meanwhile, anyone notice that there is a big step change in interest rates for OCA even while debt levels grow ever bigger?

2022/2023 : Interest is charged using the BKBM Bill rate plus a margin and line fee. Interest rates applicable in the
year to 31 March 2023 ranged from 4.05% to 7.52%(March 2022: 2.48% to 3.7%).

Debt 2022 - $383m
Debt 2023 - $558m

2024 : Interest is charged using the BKBM Bill rate plus a margin and line fee. Interest rates
applicable in the six month period to 30 September 2023 ranged from 7.05% to 7.13%.

Debt Sept 2024 - $621m (going higher as capital commitment of $88m)

So expect interest cost to increase to around $23m for the next half year.

$225m of the total $620m debt is the fixed rate bonds (2.2% and 3.2%) so no interest cost increase there. Interest is only variable on $400m of the debt.

Finance costs for 6 months to September 2023 were $8.6 million. Not sure how you see them jumping to $23m for the current half year. Maybe $20m for the whole year?

[mfd]

Isn't the majority of their debt those very well timed cheap bonds?

[Balance]

$225m of the total $620m debt is the fixed rate bonds (2.2% and 3.2%) so no interest cost increase there. Interest is only variable on $400m of the debt.

Finance costs for 6 months to September 2023 were $8.6 million. Not sure how you see them jumping to $23m for the current half year. Maybe $20m for the whole year?

Thanks for clarification. :)

I make it now $25.8m for full year.

$17.2m for next half year + $8.6m for 1st half year :

$395m bank debt X 7.1% = $28m/2 = $14m
$225m bonds at 2.5% & 3.30% = $6.4m/2 = $3.2m

OCA has done very very well locking in those wonderful rates on the bonds!

[winner69]

OCA sales this half should be pretty good …Even Mav May have under estimated

Sales volumes picking up nicely, and not that far off normal levels……Brent won’t be able to use the old slack property market excuse if sales are disappointing

Updated chart

[Balance]

OCA sales this half should be pretty good …Even Mav May have under estimated

Sales volumes picking up nicely, and not that far off normal levels……Brent won’t be able to use the old slack property market excuse if sales are disappointing

Updated chart

If things are going well, why would he quit?

[Greekwatchdog]

If things are going well, why would he quit?

Maybe he wants to do something else, a little less stressful. Maybe spend more time with the family. Been a hell of a few years for the RV sector with C19 and all the challenges it thru at them. We are not robots Balance

[thegreatestben]

Perhaps they have heard the feedback about comms and relationship with shareholders. He might have figured out he's not a CE and happier being a CFO or go be a CE better suited to being a bean counter.

[jagger]

Correct and they work hard,I know some ,husband and wife,he has two jobs.They don't know what the word holiday means and they spend very little on luxuries like eating out.Fast savers this example.

I'm not disputing that they work hard.
The opposite in fact.

This tired absolute nonsense about not having 'luxuries' like coffee or whatever then voila you have a deposit to purchase a house worth 10x your income within 2 short years just, again, speaks to a total (TOTAL) lack of perspective on house prices vs income now.
Usually comes from a generation who got theirs a long time ago on a single income and have been banking tax-free capital gains on easy street ever since.

[jagger]

If things are going well, why would he quit?

'Quit' seems like a very liberal euphemism for what happened here.

[ValueNZ]

Back down goes the share price. OCA is really a stock for traders at the moment.
I'm no trader but I'm loving OCA's volatility. Got some more through at 60c yesterday.

[ValueNZ]

Thanks for clarification. :)

I make it now $25.8m for full year.

$17.2m for next half year + $8.6m for 1st half year :

$395m bank debt X 7.1% = $28m/2 = $14m
$225m bonds at 2.5% & 3.30% = $6.4m/2 = $3.2m

OCA has done very very well locking in those wonderful rates on the bonds!
If you think their bond debt is wonderful wait till you find out about their ORA debt...

[nztx]

I'm no trader but I'm loving OCA's volatility. Got some more through at 60c yesterday.


You're what ? .. plus or minus 3c or 5c in past month ? ;)

might need a team of safecrackers to discover if the deep value can be extracted any time soon though

Remember - all them Bonds & Bank monkeys need to be repaid sometime if the can doesn't get kicked
further down the road instead ;)

[winner69]

Oh dear, Wahs throw away a good lead and record another loss. Win less in this years NRL

But one dedicated loyal fan said ‘we played bloody well, and that’s exciting for the rest of the season’ ….remember the cry ‘this is our year’

It also seems that the Wahs fan base has grown over the last few weeks. All in anticipation of this being their year.

The parallels between Wahs fan and an Oceania fan are rather spooky

Let’s hope it ‘is our year’ for both ….Wahs the champions and Oceania share price well over $1

But it could be a long depressing season for both …..but then Valuenz will be happy still buying OCA at 60 cents

Up the Wahs

[Greekwatchdog]

I must have missed something. Correlation between RV stock such as OCA and Rugby League Team such as NZ Warriors?

Gosh this thread has some crap on it

[winner69]

I must have missed something. Correlation between RV stock such as OCA and Rugby League Team such as NZ Warriors?

Gosh this thread has some crap on it

A study into fan base behaviour mate …..has relevance …..and please greekwatchdog don’t get offended by me saying you are one of the participants in this study

[Greekwatchdog]

A study into fan base behaviour mate …..has relevance …..and please greekwatchdog don’t get offended by me saying you are one of the participants in this study

I have to be honest W69, I am not a Warriors fan. More a Phoenix lad myself....

Look forward to your further Analysis...

[winner69]

I have to be honest W69, I am not a Warriors fan. More a Phoenix lad myself....

Look forward to your further Analysis...

Phoenix are going great guns this year ….Wellington Phoenix that is …you bare your chest when winning?

[Greekwatchdog]

Phoenix are going great guns this year ….Wellington Phoenix that is …you bare your chest when winning?

LOL No but like most Greeks very passionate about their team.

[winner69]

Warriors coach after losing last night …..”Effort is only going to get us so far. There is so much effort for two weeks, we’re trying so hard, but we’ve got to execute that stuff.”

Is Brent saying something like “Effort is only going to get us so far, we’re trying so hard, but we’ve got to execute that stuff, like sell sell sell like never before”

[Bjauck]

No need to read the sports pages now. There are so many strings to the OCA thread!

[RTM]

No need to read the sports pages now. There are so many strings to the OCA thread!

Well at least with sport one gets an update every weekend on how things are going.

The pages of comments on Oceania in the absence of any new data from the company is mind blowing really.
What is it they say about idle hands ?

[mistaTea]

Based on the latest Annual Report, several areas of concern or attention emerge. These concerns primarily relate to the challenges faced by Oceania due to external environmental and market conditions, as well as the strategic decisions and operational aspects that could impact the organisation's future performance and sustainability.

Might help 'explain' the current market capitilisation (which some believe is mispriced).

The main areas of concern include:



Economic and Market Challenges: The report highlights the challenging economic environment characterised by a slowing residential property market, labor shortages, and severe weather events. These factors have impacted Oceania's financial performance and operations. The slowing property market, in particular, could affect the valuation of Oceania's assets and its ability to generate sales and resale gains, critical components of its revenue.
Weather Event Recovery: The report details significant impacts from unprecedented weather events, notably Cyclone Gabrielle, affecting operations and requiring considerable resources for recovery efforts. While Oceania's response demonstrates resilience and community support, repeated or more severe weather events in the future could pose ongoing risks to operations and financial stability.
Financial Performance and Liquidity Concerns: Although Oceania reports an increase in total assets and underlying EBITDA, there is a noticeable decrease in operating cash flow from $105.5m in the previous year to $70.2m. This reduction reflects lower new sales and investments in future growth. Additionally, the current level of drawn-down debt and bonds ($557.8m) alongside a relatively modest amount of cash on hand ($7.4m) could raise concerns about liquidity, especially if the market conditions deteriorate further or if unexpected costs arise.
Debt and Financial Management: The report mentions Oceania's strategic capital management and its focus on cash generation and balance sheet management amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. The balance between investing for growth and managing debt levels will be crucial, especially if the economic environment becomes more challenging.
Operational Costs and Maintenance Expenditure: While Oceania has a relatively new portfolio that helps control operating costs and maintenance capital expenditure, the need to fund repairs and maintenance to maintain an appropriate level of condition and refurbishment is mentioned. The financial implications of maintaining high standards across its facilities, especially in a context of economic challenges and potential labor shortages, could impact profitability.
Sustainability and Climate-Related Risks: The report outlines Oceania's commitment to sustainability, including efforts to reduce environmental impact and manage climate risks. As regulations and expectations around sustainability and climate risk disclosures tighten, Oceania will need to continue investing in sustainable practices, which could entail significant costs.
Labor Shortages and Employment Practices: The report discusses the impact of labor shortages, particularly in clinical staff, on operations. Addressing this challenge, especially in the context of competitive wages and immigration settings, will be critical for maintaining the quality of care and services.


*** Research augmented using an AI assistant to provide focus and clarity.

[Baa_Baa]

Based on the latest Annual Report, several areas of concern or attention emerge. [...]

What is the source for this commentary please?

[mistaTea]

What is the source for this commentary please?

Deductions from reviewing the most recent Annual Report (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/24143744/OCA-Annual-Report-31-March-2023-1.pdf).



Economic and Market Challenges: These were highlighted in the "Letter from the Chair" section, where the Chair discussed the challenges faced by the company, including the slowing residential property market, labour shortages, and severe weather events.
Weather Event Recovery: Details on the impact of weather events and the recovery efforts were discussed in the "Weather event recovery" section, providing insights into the challenges faced and the community's response.
Financial Performance and Liquidity Concerns: Financial performance, including the increase in total assets and underlying EBITDA, alongside the decrease in operating cash flow and details regarding debt levels, were covered in the "Letter from the Chair" and the "Financial Performance" sub-sections within the document.
Debt and Financial Management: Strategic capital management and the focus on managing debt levels amid economic uncertainty were discussed in the "Letter from the Chair" and "Strategic Capital Management" sections.
Operational Costs and Maintenance Expenditure: Information on operating costs, maintenance expenditure, and the need for funding repairs and maintenance were mentioned in the "Letter from the Chair" section.
Sustainability and Climate-Related Risks: Oceania's commitment to sustainability, including efforts to manage environmental impact and climate risks, was detailed in the "Sustainability" section of the report.
Labor Shortages and Employment Practices: The challenges posed by labor shortages, particularly in clinical staff, and the impact on operations were discussed in the "Letter from the CEO" and "People Capability" sections.

[Baa_Baa]

Deductions from reviewing the mose [sic] recent Annual Report (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/24143744/OCA-Annual-Report-31-March-2023-1.pdf). [...]

Ok, thanks, so the comments are almost a year old now and pertain to the year prior to their release. Most seem pretty generic for the whole listed RV industry. I wonder how much has changed since then, though we'll find out soon enough.

[mistaTea]

Ok, thanks, so the comments are almost a year old now and pertain to the year prior to their release. Most seem pretty generic for the whole listed RV industry. I wonder how much has changed since then, though we'll find out soon enough.

Yes the next lot of results will be telling, one way or the other.

Most of the points I outlined definitely apply to all RV's in a generic way, but the key ones to watch out for are those specific to the economy.

I note even Winnie discussed the economy after his speech yesterday and has pointed out that growth is far lower than anything they could have anticipated. That is going to be a big drag.

If you ignore the weather issues they faced at the last report as well as the generic environment and sustainability stuff, then some key areas for current and would-be investors to hone in on in the next report:



Economic and Market Challenges
Financial Performance and Liquidity Concerns
Debt and Financial Management
Operational Costs and Maintenance Expenditure
Labor Shortages and Employment Practices


5. will be a big one as I expect this is going to get worse before it gets better. Australia still actively poaching our nurses etc.

[ValueNZ]

Based on the latest Annual Report, several areas of concern or attention emerge. These concerns primarily relate to the challenges faced by Oceania due to external environmental and market conditions, as well as the strategic decisions and operational aspects that could impact the organisation's future performance and sustainability.

Might help 'explain' the current market capitilisation (which some believe is mispriced).

The main areas of concern include:



Economic and Market Challenges: The report highlights the challenging economic environment characterised by a slowing residential property market, labor shortages, and severe weather events. These factors have impacted Oceania's financial performance and operations. The slowing property market, in particular, could affect the valuation of Oceania's assets and its ability to generate sales and resale gains, critical components of its revenue.
Weather Event Recovery: The report details significant impacts from unprecedented weather events, notably Cyclone Gabrielle, affecting operations and requiring considerable resources for recovery efforts. While Oceania's response demonstrates resilience and community support, repeated or more severe weather events in the future could pose ongoing risks to operations and financial stability.
Financial Performance and Liquidity Concerns: Although Oceania reports an increase in total assets and underlying EBITDA, there is a noticeable decrease in operating cash flow from $105.5m in the previous year to $70.2m. This reduction reflects lower new sales and investments in future growth. Additionally, the current level of drawn-down debt and bonds ($557.8m) alongside a relatively modest amount of cash on hand ($7.4m) could raise concerns about liquidity, especially if the market conditions deteriorate further or if unexpected costs arise.
Debt and Financial Management: The report mentions Oceania's strategic capital management and its focus on cash generation and balance sheet management amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. The balance between investing for growth and managing debt levels will be crucial, especially if the economic environment becomes more challenging.
Operational Costs and Maintenance Expenditure: While Oceania has a relatively new portfolio that helps control operating costs and maintenance capital expenditure, the need to fund repairs and maintenance to maintain an appropriate level of condition and refurbishment is mentioned. The financial implications of maintaining high standards across its facilities, especially in a context of economic challenges and potential labor shortages, could impact profitability.
Sustainability and Climate-Related Risks: The report outlines Oceania's commitment to sustainability, including efforts to reduce environmental impact and manage climate risks. As regulations and expectations around sustainability and climate risk disclosures tighten, Oceania will need to continue investing in sustainable practices, which could entail significant costs.
Labor Shortages and Employment Practices: The report discusses the impact of labor shortages, particularly in clinical staff, on operations. Addressing this challenge, especially in the context of competitive wages and immigration settings, will be critical for maintaining the quality of care and services.


Next time write it up yourself misteaGPTea. This sort of generic crap could only come from AI.

[mistaTea]

Next time write it up yourself misteaGPTea. This sort of generic crap could only come from AI.

Why is it 'crap'? These are issues Oceana are facing and it is not unreasonable to think it is impacting the sentiment (and therefore market valuation) as investors tread with caution?

I have done the work in reading through the important details, though like some others I also use assistants to help me remove all the noise and bs out of my own writing to make it more succinct and punchy.

Getting nailed for living in 2024 and using the available tools to improve communication is not something I was expecting. The information presented (which will be useful to everyone with an open mind) is valid I think, so not sure the issue?

Or is the problem that I am the one sharing the information?

[winner69]

MrT ….that was a good summary and points are still relevant

Well done

[Baa_Baa]

Next time write it up yourself misteaGPTea. This sort of generic crap could only come from AI.

Nice catch, one prefers reading individuals unique commentary, rather than an annual report stuffed into an AI with the question "what could possibly go wrong" .. LOL.

More a question of the motive I think. What of value could come from dredging up a report from the previous financial year and getting an AI to summarise the worry beads.

[mistaTea]

Nice catch, one prefers reading individuals unique commentary, rather than an annual report stuffed into an AI with the question "what could possibly go wrong" .. LOL.

More a question of the motive I think. What of value could come from dredging up a report from the previous financial year and getting an AI to summarise the worry beads.

Wait a minute... are you guys actually serious?

We are all waiting for the next report to come out... and all we have to go on is the last report as well as general commentary in the media about the state of the economy...

And rather than consider the very real challenges I have been able to outline after going through the last report... your takeaway is that I have used an online assistant to streamline my thinking as a reason to disregard it?

You guys need to wake up - a lot of other people who you are competing with are using all sorts of technologies to augment their research techniques.

If you have anything to say about the areas of concern I have raised (which the market as a whole appears to agree with) I would be keen to learn about that.

If not - then put a sock in it :D

[thegreatestben]

I think a simple, courteous thing to do is provide a disclaimer when ctrl + c, ctrl + v from AI.

[winner69]

Wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of what Oceania put out is from ‘online assistant’ anyway …if not they use ctrl + c and ctrl + v a lot

[mistaTea]

Wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of what Oceania put out is from ‘online assistant’ anyway …if not they use ctrl + c and ctrl + v a lot

All these tools do is augment the work you are doing, not replace the work.

[Baa_Baa]

Wait a minute... are you guys actually serious?

[...]
And rather than consider the very real challenges I have been able to outline after going through the last report... your takeaway is that I have used an online assistant to streamline my thinking as a reason to disregard it? [snip]

Not sure how you could leap to that conclusion, or that 'we' don't use AI, it's just that we don't pretend it's our own work, without attribution. There's truckloads of AI PDF summarisers, and they ALL give a different answer.
:eek2:

https://smallpdf.com/ai-pdf#r=app

Who are the top 10 insider shareholders?
Top 10 Insider Shareholders:
Elizabeth Coutts: 1,902,507 shares
Alan Isaac: 311,389 shares
Dame Kerry Prendergast: 361,297 shares
Sally Evans: 143,584 shares
Gregory Tomlinson: 27,882,244 shares
Robert Hamilton: 40,500 shares
Peter Dufaur: 77,169 shares

What are the key concerns, challenges and risks?
Key Concerns, Challenges, and Risks:

Climate Resilience: Addressing climate risks and opportunities, especially in the context of the building and construction sector.
Interest Rate Risk: Monitoring and managing cash flow and interest rate risks associated with long-term borrowings.
Material Impacts: Evaluating and prioritizing actual and potential impacts on the environment, society, and economy, including human rights.
Sustainable Practices: Ensuring sustainable procurement choices and supply chain practices to minimize environmental and social impacts.
Regulatory Compliance: Understanding and adhering to the regulatory environment to ensure sustainable custodianship of assets and benefit to customers



What are the key highlights, positives, potential?
Key Highlights, Positives, and Potential:

Financial Performance: Achieving a total asset value of $2.5bn as of March 2023, indicating growth and financial stability.
Operational Excellence: Completing 233 units and care suites in FY2023, demonstrating efficiency in project delivery.
Sustainability Initiatives: Increasing green building ambition, measuring greenhouse gas emissions, and linking sustainability performance to remuneration.
Resident Experience: Focusing on delighting residents with hospitality-inspired services and leading in resident experience delivery.
Strategic Pillars: Aligning business goals with strategic pillars of Offer, Resident Experience, People Capability, and Growth for sustainable growth and value creation.


What is the one single most significant thing that I should be most concerned about as a shareholder?
Most Significant Concern for Shareholders:

Existence of Significant Estimation Uncertainty: The audit highlighted the importance of the existence of significant estimation uncertainty, especially in property assumptions, which could lead to material differences. Shareholders should closely monitor and understand how these estimations impact financial decisions and performance.


What could possibly go wrong?
Potential Risks and Challenges:

Market Volatility: Fluctuations in the property market could impact asset values and investment returns.
Regulatory Changes: Shifts in regulations or policies could affect operations and profitability.
Interest Rate Fluctuations: Changes in interest rates may impact borrowing costs and financial stability.
Natural Disasters: Weather events or natural disasters could disrupt operations and infrastructure.
Competition: Increased competition in the sector may affect market share and profitability.


What could possibly go right?
Potential Positive Outcomes:

Strategic Growth: Successful implementation of growth strategies could lead to increased market share and profitability.
Sustainable Practices: Embracing sustainable practices may enhance reputation and attract environmentally conscious investors.
Innovation: Investing in innovative technologies and practices could improve operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.
Market Expansion: Expansion into new markets or sectors may diversify revenue streams and drive growth.
Resilience: Building resilience to external factors like climate change and regulatory changes could ensure long-term sustainability and success.

[mistaTea]

Not sure how you could leap to that conclusion, or that 'we' don't use AI, it's just that we don't pretend it's our own work, without attribution. There's truckloads of AI PDF summarisers, and they ALL give a different answer.
:eek2:

https://smallpdf.com/ai-pdf#r=app

Who are the top 10 insider shareholders?
Top 10 Insider Shareholders:
Elizabeth Coutts: 1,902,507 shares
Alan Isaac: 311,389 shares
Dame Kerry Prendergast: 361,297 shares
Sally Evans: 143,584 shares
Gregory Tomlinson: 27,882,244 shares
Robert Hamilton: 40,500 shares
Peter Dufaur: 77,169 shares

What are the key concerns, challenges and risks?
Key Concerns, Challenges, and Risks:

Climate Resilience: Addressing climate risks and opportunities, especially in the context of the building and construction sector.
Interest Rate Risk: Monitoring and managing cash flow and interest rate risks associated with long-term borrowings.
Material Impacts: Evaluating and prioritizing actual and potential impacts on the environment, society, and economy, including human rights.
Sustainable Practices: Ensuring sustainable procurement choices and supply chain practices to minimize environmental and social impacts.
Regulatory Compliance: Understanding and adhering to the regulatory environment to ensure sustainable custodianship of assets and benefit to customers



What are the key highlights, positives, potential?
Key Highlights, Positives, and Potential:

Financial Performance: Achieving a total asset value of $2.5bn as of March 2023, indicating growth and financial stability.
Operational Excellence: Completing 233 units and care suites in FY2023, demonstrating efficiency in project delivery.
Sustainability Initiatives: Increasing green building ambition, measuring greenhouse gas emissions, and linking sustainability performance to remuneration.
Resident Experience: Focusing on delighting residents with hospitality-inspired services and leading in resident experience delivery.
Strategic Pillars: Aligning business goals with strategic pillars of Offer, Resident Experience, People Capability, and Growth for sustainable growth and value creation.


What is the one single most significant thing that I should be most concerned about as a shareholder?
Most Significant Concern for Shareholders:

Existence of Significant Estimation Uncertainty: The audit highlighted the importance of the existence of significant estimation uncertainty, especially in property assumptions, which could lead to material differences. Shareholders should closely monitor and understand how these estimations impact financial decisions and performance.


What could possibly go wrong?
Potential Risks and Challenges:

Market Volatility: Fluctuations in the property market could impact asset values and investment returns.
Regulatory Changes: Shifts in regulations or policies could affect operations and profitability.
Interest Rate Fluctuations: Changes in interest rates may impact borrowing costs and financial stability.
Natural Disasters: Weather events or natural disasters could disrupt operations and infrastructure.
Competition: Increased competition in the sector may affect market share and profitability.


What could possibly go right?
Potential Positive Outcomes:

Strategic Growth: Successful implementation of growth strategies could lead to increased market share and profitability.
Sustainable Practices: Embracing sustainable practices may enhance reputation and attract environmentally conscious investors.
Innovation: Investing in innovative technologies and practices could improve operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.
Market Expansion: Expansion into new markets or sectors may diversify revenue streams and drive growth.
Resilience: Building resilience to external factors like climate change and regulatory changes could ensure long-term sustainability and success.



That is a cool tool.

I went back and added a disclaimer as per the suggestion by thegreatestben to avoid issues and will do so in the future.

I misunderstood and thought you took issue with the AI/assistants/pdf readers.

These days I don't think twice about it. At work my productivity has gone way up.

Just today I was working on a document (that has been growing and growing for the last week or so)...I felt that it was rambling on and on but was struggling to figure out how to cut it back. Got my handy online assistant to read it and make suggestions and Christ Almighty, the version it spat out was so much better than my waffle fest.

[winner69]

Wonder what the output would be if the downloaded printable version of this thread was feed into one of those tools

Anybody game to try

[mistaTea]

Wonder what the output would be if the downloaded printable version of this thread was feed into one of those tools

Anybody game to try


Sure, GPT-4 provides this when asked for an overall summary of the report I attached. As you will see it does not replace the human component in doing research but it augments it and can help you focus if you use it well.

************************

The Oceania Annual Report for the year ending 31 March 2023 provides a comprehensive overview of the company's financial and operational performance, alongside its strategic objectives and sustainability efforts. Key highlights from the report include:


- **Positioning for Future Growth**: Despite facing economic challenges, labor shortages, and severe weather events, Oceania has demonstrated resilience and strength, delivering solid financial performance. The company saw an increase in its Unaudited Underlying EBITDA to $80.0m, up 5% from the previous period, and total assets increased to $2.5b. This growth is attributed to the maturity of their portfolio, increased deferred management fee (DMF), resale gains, and ongoing development across 11 sites.


- **Focus on Care and Village Strategy**: Oceania continues to be a leader in providing high-quality residential care services, investing heavily in the care suite model to maintain attractive returns on capital. The company is innovating in care models, including the introduction of a fully privately funded care center. They are also focusing on developing independent living villas as part of their strategy to maintain a strong development and sales pipeline.


- **Sustainability Efforts**: Oceania is committed to sustainability, with goals related to environmental impact reduction, resident wellbeing, employment practices, and governance ethics. The report outlines their updated Sustainability Framework for 2023-2030, focusing on integrating sustainability into their strategy and growth initiatives.


- **Weather Event Recovery**: The report provides a detailed account of Oceania's response to unprecedented weather events in the North Island in early 2023, showcasing their efforts to support residents and staff during these challenging times.


- **Financial Performance**: The financial highlights section indicates that Oceania's total assets were valued at $2.5bn, with a total comprehensive income of $34.5m for the year ended 31 March 2023. The report details the operational, developmental, and financial achievements over the year, including securing resource consents for new units and care suites and the completion of several units and care suites across various locations.


- **Strategic Capital Management**: Oceania focuses on optimizing its capital structure and management to support growth and value creation, including reviewing its portfolio for optimal capital allocation and recycling cash within the business.


The report concludes with a forward-looking perspective, emphasizing Oceania's commitment to improving the resident experience, capital management, sustainability, and positioning itself for future growth. It reflects on the challenges faced during the year, including the impact of weather events and economic pressures, while highlighting the company's resilience and strategic responses to these challenges.

[mistaTea]

When I asked what is the single biggest problem facing OCA:

*******

The single most significant problem facing Oceania, as detailed in their Annual Report for the year ending 31 March 2023, arises from a confluence of challenges, including a decelerating residential property market, labour shortages, and severe weather events.

Among these challenges, labour shortages have been particularly pronounced and are highlighted as a substantial issue, notably impacting the provision of high-quality residential care services. This labour shortage has been exacerbated by closed borders, confusion regarding immigration policies, and wages that are not competitive on an international scale, particularly affecting the recruitment of clinical staff. This issue critically impacts Oceania's capacity to sustain the high level of care and service that forms the core of its operational ethos and model.

*******

All great stuff, and when you then read through key parts of the document and add that to your knowledge of the NZ economic issues as a whole... I think the interest rates/residential real estate market as well as the labour shortage are going to be big ongoing issues for the sector as a whole.

[winner69]

The place where AI mines the vast majority of its content is, of course, the Internet. But as more and more of the Internet is AI-created content, it’s basically cannibalizing itself.......leading to what some call "model collapse"

[Daytr]

Wait a minute... are you guys actually serious?

We are all waiting for the next report to come out... and all we have to go on is the last report as well as general commentary in the media about the state of the economy...

And rather than consider the very real challenges I have been able to outline after going through the last report... your takeaway is that I have used an online assistant to streamline my thinking as a reason to disregard it?

You guys need to wake up - a lot of other people who you are competing with are using all sorts of technologies to augment their research techniques.

If you have anything to say about the areas of concern I have raised (which the market as a whole appears to agree with) I would be keen to learn about that.

If not - then put a sock in it :D

Well said.

[mistaTea]

The place where AI mines the vast majority of its content is, of course, the Internet. But as more and more of the Internet is AI-created content, it’s basically cannibalizing itself.......leading to what some call "model collapse"

I think AI is brilliant, such a useful tool...but you do have to be very careful how you use it.

A lot of bias can creep into the results it produces, depending on your input and which resources if it referencing.

So if I just load up one of the AI tools and ask it "Why is OCA.NZ such a piece of crap?" it will scan the internet and come back with all sorts of misguided bollocks.

If you can control which resource it is using (in this example just the last Annual Report) and are careful with what you ask it to do for you then the results can be illuminating. It can find things you might have glossed over.

Will be interesting to see where the tech goes. Right now it is brilliant at helping with text-based work. So if someone at work sends me this bohemeth of a document to read over, you better believe I am getting AI to read it for me and summarise the important points I need to focus on.

Next will be the abilty to 'watch' video content for you. All those recorded Teams meetings you could not attend and do not have the time to go back and watch? AI, cliff notes please!

Like any tool, if you just use it with a random scattergun approach I suspect it would be worse than useless. But if you find a way to get it to work for you it can be a powerful assistant.

Preaching to the converted for most I suspect :D

[mistaTea]

Wonder what the output would be if the downloaded printable version of this thread was feed into one of those tools

Anybody game to try

Plugged in the most recent 100 posts and asked for a summary.

**********

The thread from the Oceania Group discussion on retirement villages spans several topics, with posts dating from March 14, 2024, to March 18, 2024. The conversation begins with a focus on the real estate market's impact on Oceania Group (OCA), highlighting a significant increase in property sales and momentum, which is good news for OCA given its reliance on sales. There is a detailed discussion on OCA's financials, specifically its debt and interest rates, indicating concern over rising interest rates and their effect on the company's financial health.


Several posts address internal issues within the thread, criticizing it for becoming toxic and urging members to respect differing views without resorting to personal attacks. Some members express frustration over the thread deviating from its intended focus on OCA and veering into off-topic discussions, including personal grievances and unrelated subjects like sports.


Financial analysis and speculation about OCA's future performance are recurring themes. There's a detailed breakdown of OCA's debt structure, interest rates, and the potential impact on its financial statements. Some members are optimistic about OCA's sales performance and its implications for the company's stock price, while others remain cautious, pointing out the challenges posed by the economic environment, such as labor shortages and interest rate risks.


The conversation also touches on broader economic and market challenges facing the retirement village industry, including the impact of weather events like Cyclone Gabrielle, financial performance concerns, and operational costs. There's a debate over the usefulness and integrity of using AI for summarizing reports, with some members criticizing it for lacking personal insight and others defending its efficiency.


Towards the end, the discussion returns to OCA's business prospects, with members speculating on the company's future based on its past performance, current economic indicators, and internal business strategies. Despite diverging opinions on the use of AI tools and the relevance of certain topics, the thread collectively reflects a deep interest in OCA's financial health, market position, and the external factors influencing its success in the retirement village sector.

[RTM]

I think AI is brilliant, such a useful tool...but you do have to be very careful how you use it.

A lot of bias can creep into the results it produces, depending on your input and which resources if it referencing.

So if I just load up one of the AI tools and ask it "Why is OCA.NZ such a piece of crap?" it will scan the internet and come back with all sorts of misguided bollocks.

If you can control which resource it is using (in this example just the last Annual Report) and are careful with what you ask it to do for you then the results can be illuminating. It can find things you might have glossed over.

Will be interesting to see where the tech goes. Right now it is brilliant at helping with text-based work. So if someone at work sends me this bohemeth of a document to read over, you better believe I am getting AI to read it for me and summarise the important points I need to focus on.

Next will be the abilty to 'watch' video content for you. All those recorded Teams meetings you could not attend and do not have the time to go back and watch? AI, cliff notes please!

Like any tool, if you just use it with a random scattergun approach I suspect it would be worse than useless. But if you find a way to get it to work for you it can be a powerful assistant.

Preaching to the converted for most I suspect :D

With respect to video, the cameras on fishing boats come to mind. From memory a tiny % is reviewed at the moment. And then there is all that surveillance stuff…..

[winner69]

Plugged in the most recent 100 posts and asked for a summary.

**********

The thread from the Oceania Group discussion on retirement villages spans several topics, with posts dating from March 14, 2024, to March 18, 2024. The conversation begins with a focus on the real estate market's impact on Oceania Group (OCA), highlighting a significant increase in property sales and momentum, which is good news for OCA given its reliance on sales. There is a detailed discussion on OCA's financials, specifically its debt and interest rates, indicating concern over rising interest rates and their effect on the company's financial health.


Several posts address internal issues within the thread, criticizing it for becoming toxic and urging members to respect differing views without resorting to personal attacks. Some members express frustration over the thread deviating from its intended focus on OCA and veering into off-topic discussions, including personal grievances and unrelated subjects like sports.


Financial analysis and speculation about OCA's future performance are recurring themes. There's a detailed breakdown of OCA's debt structure, interest rates, and the potential impact on its financial statements. Some members are optimistic about OCA's sales performance and its implications for the company's stock price, while others remain cautious, pointing out the challenges posed by the economic environment, such as labor shortages and interest rate risks.


The conversation also touches on broader economic and market challenges facing the retirement village industry, including the impact of weather events like Cyclone Gabrielle, financial performance concerns, and operational costs. There's a debate over the usefulness and integrity of using AI for summarizing reports, with some members criticizing it for lacking personal insight and others defending its efficiency.


Towards the end, the discussion returns to OCA's business prospects, with members speculating on the company's future based on its past performance, current economic indicators, and internal business strategies. Despite diverging opinions on the use of AI tools and the relevance of certain topics, the thread collectively reflects a deep interest in OCA's financial health, market position, and the external factors influencing its success in the retirement village sector.

Well done Mistatea

Shows that AI is still learning ….hasn’t grasped the concept of the relationship between the Warriors and Oceania yet

Give it time ….it’ll catch on soon enough

[bottomfeeder]

Cmon OCA, if Arvida can sell a 30mil property at 3% below valuation, Im sure you can sell one of your superior properties, which are surplus to requirements.

[winner69]

Deleted ..duplicate

[winner69]

This is quite interesting

What the birth of the spreadsheet teaches us about generative AI

https://timharford.com/2024/03/what-the-birth-of-the-spreadsheet-teaches-us-about-generative-ai/

[mistaTea]

Well done Mistatea

Shows that AI is still learning ….hasn’t grasped the concept of the relationship between the Warriors and Oceania yet

Give it time ….it’ll catch on soon enough

I too was disappointed that it did not end its note with "Up the Wahs".

Anyway, maybe that will be GPT-5.

[mistaTea]

This is quite interesting

What the birth of the spreadsheet teaches us about generative AI

https://timharford.com/2024/03/what-the-birth-of-the-spreadsheet-teaches-us-about-generative-ai/

Well, what does AI say about Tim's piece on AI?

******
The passage reflects on the historical impact and evolution of the digital spreadsheet, starting with its bewildering introduction in 1979. Initially, users were perplexed by VisiCalc, the first digital spreadsheet, as they were accustomed to manual calculations. Despite a lukewarm reception, VisiCalc, introduced by Dan Bricklin and his team, eventually became a groundbreaking tool that transformed accounting and data management. The digital spreadsheet accelerated tasks that previously consumed hours or days into mere seconds, symbolizing a significant leap in productivity and efficiency. This transformation is compared to the potential impact of generative AI in modern times.


The narrative outlines two main lessons from the spreadsheet revolution. First, it demonstrates how rapidly appropriate technology can revolutionize industries, as digital spreadsheets did for accounting, enhancing productivity immensely. Second, contrary to fears of job displacement, the number of accounting and auditing roles increased significantly from 1980 to 2022, suggesting that while technology automated arithmetic tasks, it also created opportunities for more strategic and analytical work.


The text also explores the uncertain future impact of generative AI on the labor market and workplace dynamics, questioning whether it will democratize productivity or leave mundane tasks to humans. Early indications suggest generative AI could boost productivity across skill levels, especially for less skilled staff. However, the pace of change in AI technology raises concerns about its long-term implications, drawing parallels to how spreadsheets are sometimes misused due to a lack of understanding of their underlying functions. This misuse underscores the risks of widely adopted technologies when operated without adequate knowledge or caution, offering a cautionary note on the unbridled adoption of generative AI.

[Panda-NZ-]

It's interesting to see what is actually under threat in real time. They said creatives would be among the safest.

But it's authors, artists, actors and even journalists (esp online blog types) that are first on the chopping block.

[mistaTea]

It's interesting to see what is actually under threat in real time. They said creatives would be among the safest.

But it's authors, artists, actors and even journalists (esp online blog types) that are first on the chopping block.

Prob need to create another thread dedicated to AI…

But…

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/03/18/apple-in-talks-to-license-googles-gemini-for-generative-ai-bloomberg.html

It must be Wayne’s World time because when I saw this headline all I could do was keep yelling out SHWING!! over and over again.

[Rawz]

When’s SailorRob back? Or has he forsaken us?

[jagger]

The place where AI mines the vast majority of its content is, of course, the Internet. But as more and more of the Internet is AI-created content, it’s basically cannibalizing itself.......leading to what some call "model collapse"

Sounds like what passive investing / EFTs are doing to capital markets.

[winner69]

Sounds like what passive investing / EFTs are doing to capital markets.

Good point jagger……cannabalising itself eh

[winner69]

Hey Mistatea, have you found an AI thing that can read between the lines ….like this is what they really meant but couldn’t really say it because it’s not good positive stuff.

That would be really valuable ….most of the narratives that companies churn out are in ‘code’ and have hidden meanings

[Daytr]

Well done Mistatea

Shows that AI is still learning ….hasn’t grasped the concept of the relationship between the Warriors and Oceania yet

Give it time ….it’ll catch on soon enough

Nice to have a good giggle! 🤣

[Balance]

Buyers’ market continues :

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/126861/housing-market-looks-set-end-summer-season-big-overhang-unsold-stock

The housing market is facing a mountain of uncertainty in the form of unsold stock as it heads towards the end of its peak selling season.

Unless there is an enormous surge in sales in March, and there doesn't appear to be any sign of that happening at this stage, the housing market looks set to be heading towards winter with a large overhang of unsold stock that's likely to weigh heavily on buying decisions and prices.




https://www.interest.co.nz/property/126861/housing-market-looks-set-end-summer-season-big-overhang-unsold-stock

[mistaTea]

Hey Mistatea, have you found an AI thing that can read between the lines ….like this is what they really meant but couldn’t really say it because it’s not good positive stuff.

That would be really valuable ….most of the narratives that companies churn out are in ‘code’ and have hidden meanings

GPT-4 has a gift for you winner.

Question

Can you take a look at the Charmain and CEO letters in this Annual Report and read between the lines? Can you detect if anything is being implied or alluded to that I should know about?

Analysis and Answer

After reviewing the letters from the Chair and CEO in the Annual Report for Oceania Healthcare Limited (OHL) for the year ending 31 March 2023, here are the key insights and interpretations that delve beyond the explicit content:


### Letter from the Chair (Elizabeth Coutts)


- **Resilience and Adaptability**: The Chair underscores OHL's resilience and adaptability in the face of a challenging economic environment, which includes a slowing residential property market, labour shortages, and severe weather events. This suggests that while the company has successfully navigated these challenges, such conditions may continue to pose risks to OHL's operations and financial performance in the future.


- **Financial Performance and Growth Focus**: The discussion on solid financial performance, marked by a 5% increase in Unaudited Underlying EBITDA, indicates that OHL is on a stable financial footing. The emphasis on ongoing development across 11 sites and the completion of several projects signals a strategic focus on growth, particularly in care services and independent living units. However, the mention of "broadly unfavourable changes in valuation assumptions" could imply concerns about market volatility and its impact on property valuations.


- **Strategic Divestments and Capital Management**: The decision to exit arrangements with Airedale Property Trust and sell two smaller Auckland care sites may indicate a strategic realignment to focus on more profitable or core assets. This could also suggest a proactive approach to capital management, aiming to enhance financial flexibility and invest in areas with higher returns.


- **Environmental and Social Initiatives**: The Chair’s mention of sustainability commitments, including joining the Science Based Target initiative and working towards climate-related financial disclosures, underscores an increasing focus on environmental responsibility. This may reflect broader societal expectations for corporate sustainability and could enhance OHL's reputation and stakeholder relationships.


- **Governance and Stakeholder Engagement**: The ongoing engagement with residents and stakeholders, and the establishment of a Sustainability Committee, underscore a commitment to governance and sustainability. This could be seen as a strategic effort to bolster trust and transparency, crucial for long-term success.


### Letter from the CEO (Brent Pattison)


- **Navigating External Challenges**: The CEO outlines how OHL has navigated external challenges, including weather events and the economic impact of labour shortages and inflation. This narrative of resilience reinforces the message from the Chair but also underscores the external risks to operational stability and cost management.


- **Strategic Pillars and Innovation**: The detailed discussion on strategic pillars—Offer, Resident Experience, People Capability, and Growth—demonstrates a comprehensive approach to achieving sustainable growth and improving service offerings. The emphasis on innovation, particularly in care services, could indicate a competitive strategy to differentiate OHL in the healthcare and retirement living sectors.


- **Operational Adjustments and Market Conditions**: Comments on adjusting to market conditions, including the cooling residential property market, suggest adaptability but also hint at potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum and development timelines. The focus on premium offerings, like The Helier project, might reflect a strategy to attract a niche market segment amid broader market uncertainties.


- **Commitment to People and Culture**: The attention to employee engagement, training, and development highlights the importance of human capital in OHL's strategy. This focus on being an employer of choice could be crucial for addressing labour shortages and ensuring high-quality care and services.


In summary, the letters convey a message of strategic growth, resilience in the face of challenges, and a commitment to sustainability and stakeholder engagement. However, they also hint at underlying challenges related to market conditions, operational risks, and the need for continuous innovation and adaptation. These insights could be valuable for investors, stakeholders, and partners in understanding OHL's strategic direction and potential areas of focus in the coming years.

[Balance]

Buyers’ market continues :

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/126861/housing-market-looks-set-end-summer-season-big-overhang-unsold-stock

The housing market is facing a mountain of uncertainty in the form of unsold stock as it heads towards the end of its peak selling season.

Unless there is an enormous surge in sales in March, and there doesn't appear to be any sign of that happening at this stage, the housing market looks set to be heading towards winter with a large overhang of unsold stock that's likely to weigh heavily on buying decisions and prices.


https://www.interest.co.nz/property/126861/housing-market-looks-set-end-summer-season-big-overhang-unsold-stock

Going to be a slow grind for the property sector to get back into favour.

Latest developer/property company to suspend payments to investors :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/oyster-fund-194m-profit-turns-to-225m-loss-pastoral-house-payments-stopped/GHH5NL44FFEMFFQN34J7D44CBQ/
paywalled

Property devaluations pushed a major property syndicate into negative territory, from a $19.4 million profit into a $22.5m loss, when $13.9m of gains on real estate turned into $28.7m paper or unrealised losses.

And investors in the Pastoral House fund, which owns a Wellington office block, got no payments from October.

Nor can they withdraw their original investment, which for one couple was initially $1 million.

[winner69]

That’s very good mistatea …..thank you for doing it

Proactive capital management ….hmmm … cap raise?

Greater communication with stakeholders ….more shareholder updates?

Oh dear ….now I’m reading between the lines of what GPT-4 reported

[Antipodean]

There seems to be plenty of people ready to post negative stories about the property market here, specifically only on OCA for reasons, but remarkable silence on any news story providing evidence to the contrary. Would that be a 'balanced' approach?

Also great to see the continual mention of capital raise anytime, despite assertions from the company multiple times it is not necessary. However maybe chatgpt knows (or hallucinates) in a more 'winning' manner?

[allfromacell]

There seems to be plenty of people ready to post negative stories about the property market here, specifically only on OCA for reasons, but remarkable silence on any news story providing evidence to the contrary. Would that be a 'balanced' approach?

Also great to see the continual mention of capital raise anytime, despite assertions from the company multiple times it is not necessary. However maybe chatgpt knows (or hallucinates) in a more 'winning' manner?

Recent commentary from listed providers has reported 10% increase in sales over last year. Most recently MET & SUM. OCA's most recent update was regarding 'pleasing' numbers of sales at The Helier.

RYM has been the exception stating difficulty to make sales in construction sites (who knew?). Recent REANNZ data has shown increasing volumes as well so no real reason to panic on the sales front imo. Things may not be booming but sales are definitely going through...

[mistaTea]

There seems to be plenty of people ready to post negative stories about the property market here, specifically only on OCA for reasons, but remarkable silence on any news story providing evidence to the contrary. Would that be a 'balanced' approach?

Also great to see the continual mention of capital raise anytime, despite assertions from the company multiple times it is not necessary. However maybe chatgpt knows (or hallucinates) in a more 'winning' manner?


Well, I plugged your response to AI to see what 'it' would make of it.

*****

Dear Antipodean,


Thank you for your engaging feedback. Your perspective is indeed valuable, and it offers a great opportunity for deeper discussion. It's crucial to approach analyses with a balanced perspective, and your point about the tendency to focus on negative narratives, especially concerning the property market and Oceania Healthcare (OCA), deserves attention.


The review of OCA’s Annual Report, including the letters from the Chair and CEO, aimed to provide a comprehensive overview that acknowledges both the challenges and the strategic responses by OCA. The mention of potential risks, including those related to the property market and capital raises, was intended to reflect the breadth of information presented in the report, which indeed includes OCA’s own assertions about its financial health and strategic direction.


Your observation about the “remarkable silence” on positive developments is well taken. OCA's efforts in navigating a challenging environment, its strategic investments, and sustainability initiatives, among other achievements, underscore the company's resilience and forward-looking approach. These successes should be celebrated and form a critical part of the narrative.


Regarding capital raises, the intention was not to speculate but to analyse the content provided in the annual report contextually. It's important to rely on the company's official communications for such financial decisions. OCA’s reassurances about the state of its finances and the non-necessity of a capital raise are indeed pivotal pieces of information that stakeholders should consider.


The goal here is not to 'win' an argument but to foster a constructive dialogue that enriches our understanding. Your feedback serves as a reminder of the importance of highlighting both challenges and achievements to provide a more nuanced and balanced view.


Once again, thank you for contributing to the conversation. Let’s continue to engage in discussions that challenge our thinking and deepen our insights.

[Balance]

There seems to be plenty of people ready to post negative stories about the property market here, specifically only on OCA for reasons, but remarkable silence on any news story providing evidence to the contrary. Would that be a 'balanced' approach?

Also great to see the continual mention of capital raise anytime, despite assertions from the company multiple times it is not necessary. However maybe chatgpt knows (or hallucinates) in a more 'winning' manner?

So you only want good news rather than all pertinent news?

Did you not consider that the ‘negative’ property news could be the reason why the sp of OCA has fallen back after the initial bounce from the index selldown? Balanced investors prefer to know what’s happening out there with the critical factors influencing share prices.

Market is dynamic and reacts to news and developments in the market.

I think you have come to the wrong forum if you just want ‘positive’ news.

Dis. Bought during index selldown at 59c.

[winner69]

Wahs have another big game tonight

Their coach believes his group’s best “is better than most in the NRL’’, but they are just not “doing it long enough’,’ and the Warriors head coach hasn’t losing any sleep over that statistic

That’s like Brent saying Oceania “is better than most of other in the RV sector on NZX” but they are “just not selling enough units” but not losing any sleep over that statistic

Up the Wahs ……. Go Oceania …this is our year….NRL champions and share price well over a buck

[Rawz]

As long as they both finish top 8 it’s all good. Fans can be happy with that effort.

[Antipodean]

I want all the news, good and bad. This thread seems to largely be a negative echo chamber at times. Glad to see the commitment to turn it around.

Also, hilarious AI response :)

[Rawz]

I want all the news, good and bad. This thread seems to largely be a negative echo chamber at times. Glad to see the commitment to turn it around.

Also, hilarious AI response :)

Remember when it was a positive echo chamber. What was it- "OCA- can never have enough" lol omg what were we thinking

[mike2020]

Barking mad? 😁

[winner69]

Warriors have a good win, first of the season. One fan says ‘first of many, this is our year …NRL champs’

Oceania fan thinks sales going well ….and will continue …..’this is our year and share price well over $1 reflecting how good our company is.’

UP THE WAHS

[Daytr]

I want all the news, good and bad. This thread seems to largely be a negative echo chamber at times. Glad to see the commitment to turn it around.

Also, hilarious AI response :)

Hi Antipodean, if you want to counter the negativity then post accordingly.
I don't think you can ask people to change their tune just for the sake of it.

I suspect the vultures are swirling more on this thread due to the ridiculous over confidence of the likes of SailorRob & others in relation to this stock. The absurdity that the company or property market could do no wrong that would impact the long term value due to the 'float' was just well absurd.

I don't own stock, not short stock and I do believe in the long term, this could well be a very good investment, however it's not without risk particularly right now & with Chris Bishop saying he wants to "flood the market" won't be helping confidence in RV stocks.

OCA need to conserve cash and strengthen their balance sheet, so the best thing they could do is slow development or even pause until they have sold down more existing completed stock.

[davflaws]

Hi

OCA need to conserve cash and strengthen their balance sheet, so the best thing they could do is slow development or even pause until they have sold down more existing completed stock.

Has anybody done any analysis of how the 'lead time' of their development program might influence a decision to slow or pause it in relation to sales performance?

[Maverick]

Has anybody done any analysis of how the 'lead time' of their development program might influence a decision to slow or pause it in relation to sales performance?
Daytr and Daveflaws , you both raise a really good point today.

OCA have always said they would produce 250 to 330 units over the years. ( oooh, remember those days…. when any RV just had to buy a paddock, say they are increasing build rate and the share price would jump.)

OCA have never said they are throttling build rates but IMO they most certainly are…
They usually had a little over 500 units on the go at any time. Now they still have that number but in a VERY short time when some deliveries complete over the next few months they will have half that on the go. There is no mention of what will replace those completions, which they normally would have. Even Frankton`s earthworks seem to have fallen off the “under construction “ schedule.

They are cutting back and seem to have significantly reduced their current build ambitions, although have not said so. They have some excellent sites ready to pull the trigger on when ready such as Milford, Frankton and numerous others but looking 6 months out they have not committed to bugger all of that new development.

This is all good news for the immediate and medium term stakeholders as this will do wonders to their balance sheet.
They are a unique position of having 2 years of stock using appropriate sales rates for this market , currently ready for sale.

OCA historically spent capex of c. $80m HY ( and a higher number lately as they finished the Helier and CHCH) so it would seem fair this would reduce to say c. $50m . The net effect on the cash flow henceforth should be very healthy.
(IMO There should be plenty of cash floating around to resume the dividend.)
Yes, I have some healthy numbers but given OCA are in the middle of this change and will be temporary, they are pretty meaningless to state here.

These can only be rough figures as they are entirely dependent on what the directors set as build targets. At any moment they could easily resume construction at pace should they choose but until they ramp up again the money will be rolling in nicely.

I would hope some corporate expenses reduce too as they back off the build rate. Perhaps they will want to retain their staffing as they will want to resume building at some point. We will have to wait and see about that.

We know that should they stop spending on new stuff and just finish their work in progress, sell what they have over the next 2 years, then they could all but pay off all debt. It does seem for this moment in time that is their direction.

As a long term shareholder but also who wants the dividend to resume. To me and Daytr, this is an obvious path they have chosen for now.

Naturally , development will resume at some point, they are poised ready to go. In the interim for up to the next 2 years OCA are in a sweet position of turning their surfboard around and ride the wave (cash in) that they have created underneath them.

[Daytr]

Daytr and Daveflaws , you both raise a really good point today.

OCA have always said they would produce 250 to 330 units over the years. ( oooh, remember those days…. when any RV just had to buy a paddock, say they are increasing build rate and the share price would jump.)

OCA have never said they are throttling build rates but they most certainly are…
They usually had a little over 500 units on the go at any time. Now they still have that number but in a VERY short time when some deliveries complete over the next few months they will have half that on the go. There is no mention of what will replace those completions, which they normally would have. Even Frankton`s earthworks seem to have fallen off the “under construction “ schedule.

They are certainly cutting back and have significantly reduced their current build ambitions, although have not said so. They have some excellent sites ready to pull the trigger on when ready such as Milford, Frankton and numerous others but looking 6 months out they have not committed to bugger all new development.

This is all good news for the immediate and medium term stakeholders as this will do wonders to their balance sheet.
They are a unique position of having 2 years of stock sales currently for sale.

OCA historically spent capex of c. $80m HY ( and a higher number lately as they finished the Helier and CHCH) so it would seem fair this would reduce to say c. $50m . The net effect on the cash flow henceforth should be very healthy.
(IMO There should be plenty of cash floating around to resume the dividend.)
Yes, I have some numbers but given OCA are in the middle of this change and will be temporary, they are pretty meaningless to state here.

These can only be rough figures as they are entirely dependent on what the directors set as build targets. At any moment they could easily resume construction at pace should they choose but until they ramp up again the money should be rolling in nicely.

I would hope some corporate expenses reduce too as they back off the build rate. We will have to wait and see about that.

We know that should they stop spending on new stuff and just finish their work in progress, sell what they have over the next 2 years, then they could all but pay off all debt. It does seem for this moment in time that is their direction.

As a long term shareholder but also who wants the dividend to resume. To me, this is a very good path they have chosen for now.

Obviously development will resume at some point but in the interim , for the next 2 years OCA are in a sweet position of turning their surfboard around and ride the wave that they have created underneath them.



Mav, they shouldn't have been paying a dividend previously, they should have reduced debt.
It would be completely irresponsible of the management to return paying dividends until they have reduced debt and back in full growth mode. I would like to see them have around $100M more in liquidity, so either increased cash or reduced debt, perhaps a mixture of both.

If the crap hits the fan in the NZ economy, which it might, having liquidity will be key. And I can tell you if that does happen, banks won't be keen to extend further credit.

[Maverick]

Mav, they shouldn't have been paying a dividend previously, they should have reduced debt.
It would be completely irresponsible of the management to return paying dividends until they have reduced debt and back in full growth mode. I would like to see them have around $100M more in liquidity, so either increased cash or reduced debt, perhaps a mixture of both.

If the crap hits the fan in the NZ economy, which it might, having liquidity will be key. And I can tell you if that does happen, banks won't be keen to extend further credit.
We kiwi`s love our dividends. This ain`t USA where where they seem to just want capital growth.

Cast your memory back 3 years and almost everyone was saying borrow more, buy more land, build more.
OCA was bagged for not being aggressive enough
ARV was buying up a storm to the cheering crowd - and just sold one of those $30m deals to repay their exuberance ( for a slight loss). Sorry to single you out ARV ( SUM and RYM were into it too) but ARV is treated like OCAs twin...which it certainly isn't.

Fast forward to now and the mantra has changed a tad.
Essentially OCA is being run by 2 x CFO`s now and IMO are responding appropriately to the new situation while holding on to their original ambitions. (selling premium stuff to the ageing well healed)

None of us know the minds of the OCA directors but they are going to have to balance what you are saying, stakeholders, financiers and the market.

I do think their previous 50% payout of unpat is no longer appropriate now the cash from DHB care profit has dried up. However to go to zero IMO is too extreme . You are probably earning cash elsewhere to have your view but the huge portion on NZSX investors are looking for some immediate reward.

As far as "the crap hitting NZ economy"...too many people struggling too harshly will simply cause lower interest rates. Our entrenched obsession with property just means we can then trot off to pay more at the housing auctions...OCA investors will win with both fundamentals and market sentiment.

But ultimately , now they have $364m of saleable stock...plus reduced capex...there should be plenty of cash driving the balance sheet in the right direction for the banks and analysts.

The dividend lately as taken $8m or so per HY so not a great deal in the current scheme of OCA things but very meaningful to stakeholders. Again, that's what the directors have to balance out.

[Daytr]

We kiwi`s love our dividends. This ain`t USA where where they seem to just want capital growth.

Cast your memory back 3 years and almost everyone was saying borrow more, buy more land, build more.
OCA was bagged for not being aggressive enough
ARV was buying up a storm to the cheering crowd - and just sold one of those $30m deals to repay their exuberance ( for a slight loss). Sorry to single you out ARV ( SUM and RYM were into it too) but ARV is treated like OCAs twin...which it certainly isn't.

Fast forward to now and the mantra has changed a tad.
Essentially OCA is being run by 2 x CFO`s now and IMO are responding appropriately to the new situation while holding on to their original ambitions. (selling premium stuff to the ageing well healed)

None of us know the minds of the OCA directors but they are going to have to balance what you are saying, stakeholders, financiers and the market.

I do think their previous 50% payout of unpat is no longer appropriate now the cash from DHB care profit has dried up. However to go to zero IMO is too extreme . You are probably earning cash elsewhere to have your view but the huge portion on NZSX investors are looking for some immediate reward.

As far as "the crap hitting NZ economy"...too many people struggling too harshly will simply cause lower interest rates. Our entrenched obsession with property just means we can then trot off to pay more at the housing auctions...OCA investors will win with both fundamentals and market sentiment.

But ultimately , now they have $364m of saleable stock...plus reduced capex...there should be plenty of cash driving the balance sheet in the right direction for the banks and analysts.

The dividend lately as taken $8m or so per HY so not a great deal in the current scheme of OCA things but very meaningful to stakeholders. Again, that's what the directors have to balance out.

So as SailorBoy & ValueNZ harped on about,.the float, the float, it's all about the float.

My response to that, was how do you know that OCA will build a float & turn into the investment model he dreamed about?
What if they instead return to paying dividends?
They could obviously do a bit of both, but probably not if they still want to grow the portfolio which they obviously do.

[ValueNZ]

So as SailorBoy & ValueNZ harped on about,.the float, the float, it's all about the float.

My response to that, was how do you know that OCA will build a float & turn into the investment model he dreamed about?
What if they instead return to paying dividends?
They could obviously do a bit of both, but probably not if they still want to grow the portfolio which they obviously do.
The float is already invested and growing at an exceptional rate. It's how they can have such a massive asset base in relation to equity at low risk.

I don't really understand what you're asking there TBH.

[Daytr]

The float is already invested and growing at an exceptional rate. It's how they can have such a massive asset base in relation to equity at low risk.

I don't really understand what you're asking there TBH.

Here's the latest financials.
Can you please point to me what the value of the float is in the report?
From what I am hearing from you, you are saying when they sell a unit & then set aside in cash the 70% they need to pay back at the end of the occupancy and that this cash is invested for a return. Is that correct?

Cheers Daytr

Oceania_InterimReport2024_singles_FINAL.pdf (oceaniahealthcare.co.nz) (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/22071635/Oceania_InterimReport2024_singles_FINAL.pdf)

[ValueNZ]

Here's the latest financials.
Can you please point to me what the value of the float is in the report?
From what I am hearing from you, you are saying when they sell a unit & then set aside in cash the 70% they need to pay back at the end of the occupancy and that this cash is invested for a return. Is that correct?

Cheers Daytr

Oceania_InterimReport2024_singles_FINAL.pdf (oceaniahealthcare.co.nz) (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/22071635/Oceania_InterimReport2024_singles_FINAL.pdf)
14993
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935+45=~970 million in float, which when it comes in is spent on further developing property.

[winner69]

14993
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935+45=~970 million in float, which when it comes in is spent on further developing property.

See daytr ….float is listed in liabilities when it’s really an ‘asset’ . Get it now mate?

[mistaTea]

See daytr ….float is listed in liabilities when it’s really an ‘asset’ . Get it now mate?

Only those who know the secret handshake are able to ‘get it’ winner.

[ValueNZ]

Only those who know the secret handshake are able to ‘get it’ winner.

Just those who don't need to use generative AI to inform their decision making.

[Daytr]

Here's the latest financials.
Can you please point to me what the value of the float is in the report?
From what I am hearing from you, you are saying when they sell a unit & then set aside in cash the 70% they need to pay back at the end of the occupancy and that this cash is invested for a return. Is that correct?

Cheers Daytr

Oceania_InterimReport2024_singles_FINAL.pdf (oceaniahealthcare.co.nz) (https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/22071635/Oceania_InterimReport2024_singles_FINAL.pdf)

Yep that's what I thought.
But it's not some pile of cash compounding in an investment.
It's just the proceeds from what they sold & they have a future liability to payback 70% plus refurb costs.

And as you say it's reinvested into the business, however they also have $600Mln of debt.

The better way to look at it is they are valuing 100% of their portfolio in the balance sheet as they have only sold a right to occupy and then offsetting the 70% as a liability. The DMF is actually 30% not the 70% and that 30% is less refurb costs.

Of course they are using the proceeds from sales along with debt to fund development, that's normal practice, not some mythical float.

When I discussed this with SailorBoy he was talking up the float as if it was some existing pile of cash being invested. By the end of the discussion we were talking about OCA's future ability to build up an actual float, I.e from say half the DMF I.e 15% plus any profits from new & resales, but this would only come about once expansion at least slowed or ceased.

What do you reckon Winner?

[Balance]

Yep that's what I thought.
But it's not some pile of cash compounding in an investment.
It's just the proceeds from what they sold & they have a future liability to payback 70% plus refurb costs.

And as you say it's reinvested into the business, however they also have $600Mln of debt.

The better way to look at it is they are valuing 100% of their portfolio in the balance sheet as they have only sold a right to occupy and then offsetting the 70% as a liability. The DMF is actually 30% not the 70% and that 30% is less refurb costs.

Of course they are using the proceeds from sales along with debt to fund development, that's normal practice, not some mythical float.

When I discussed this with SailorBoy he was talking up the float as if it was some existing pile of cash being invested. By the end of the discussion we were talking about OCA's future ability to build up an actual float, I.e from say half the DMF I.e 15% plus any profits from new & resales, but this would only come about once expansion at least slowed or ceased.

What do you reckon Winner?

As I have assessed and posted before, there are two big assumptions being made with all the listed RVs:

1. That the 'free' refundable ORAs are automatically invested profitably on the asset side. St Helier shows that is not the case. And as has been pointed out by other posters, OCA's care units are a severe drag on operating profits.

2. That the RVs property portfolios are somewhat not subjected to the property cycle. Where other property companies have been taking hits on their property valuations in the last 2 years, the RVs have increased and continuously booked steady increases in property revaluations.

The market (the institutional one being critical in terms of driving the sp) obviously does not agree with the assumptions above - hence, the discount to NAB of 56% in the case of OCA :

Simplistically, OCA's property assets were valued at $2.54 billion as at 30 Sep 2023 vs Equity of $1.02 billion - leverage to upside and downside property valuations of 2.5X. So if the institutional market takes the view that OCA's property assets should be revalued down by 15%*, it can be seen that $381m would reduce Equity down to $639m (NAB down to 88c). 20% would reduce Equity by $508m so NAB would be 71c.

Disclosure:

I picked up some shares during the index sell down at 59c and thought that the sp would be tracking back towards 65c comfortably by now before the profit takers (from the index sell down) lock in their 10% gain. But they appear to be selling out at around current levels. Meanwhile, longer term holders have taken a hammering having bought all the way down and seem unable or willing to load up on much more.

I was looking for the directors and management to load up with more shares during the index sell down - would have been very encouraging but there have been no SPH from any one of them post the index sell down.

So looks like sp is going to range trade around current levels until results in late May.

Traders' stock in the meantime?

[allfromacell]

I was looking for the directors and management to load up with more shares during the index sell down - would have been very encouraging but there have been no SPH from any one of them post the index sell down.



Does anyone knows when insiders are allowed to trade the stock? I suspect not until after the current reporting periods results have been made public

[winner69]

Does anyone knows when insiders are allowed to trade the stock? I suspect not until after the current reporting periods results have been made public

As below so can’t until year end results in May sometime

[allfromacell]

As below so can’t until year end results in May sometime

Thanks a lot, Winner :)

[Balance]

As below so can’t until year end results in May sometime

Unless they seek exemption.

[ValueNZ]

Simplistically, OCA's property assets were valued at $2.54 billion as at 30 Sep 2023 vs Equity of $1.02 billion - leverage to upside and downside property valuations of 2.5X. So if the institutional market takes the view that OCA's property assets should be revalued down by 15%*, it can be seen that $381m would reduce Equity down to $639m (NAB down to 88c). 20% would reduce Equity by $508m so NAB would be 71c.
Good thing no serious investor would value this company off it's equity value. What's important is the cash it can produce.

[Balance]

Good thing no serious investor would value this company off it's equity value. What's important is the cash it can produce.

Serious investor?

[ValueNZ]

Serious investor?
Apologies. Anyone with a brain.

[Leemsip]

Surely the equity value is the markets assessment of the cash OCA can produce.

Flavours of Sailor Rob there, hinting that others arent serious investors. Bit of humility needed, loads of successful investors on here with different strategies. Particularly now, its a funny old time on the sharemarkets generally, lots of sh!t cos going up like crazy. Shame not to join the party IMHO. Cause celebre probably doing ok with crypto this year... awesome

[Bjauck]

Surely the equity value is the markets assessment of the cash OCA can produce.

Flavours of Sailor Rob there, hinting that others arent serious investors. Bit of humility needed, loads of successful investors on here with different strategies. Particularly now, its a funny old time on the sharemarkets generally, lots of sh!t cos going up like crazy. Shame not to join the party IMHO. Cause celebre probably doing ok with crypto this year... awesome

Not with respect to the NZX50. We are on the NZX threads. It is only up by 1.5% (including dividends too) this year, so hardly a crazy increase. That is after a drop last year too. Perhaps your focus is on foreign markets?

[Baa_Baa]

Not with respect to the NZX50. We are on the NZX threads. It is only up by 1.5% (including dividends too) this year, so hardly a crazy increase. That is after a drop last year too. Perhaps your focus is on foreign markets?

Apologies off topic, but couldn't resist ... there are 36 shares up over 10% and 79 in the green. 19 are up more than 15% and 9 are up more than 20%. This is since the NZX open 2024. Unfortunately this does not include OCA which is down 18%

[Balance]

Good thing no serious investor would value this company off it's equity value. What's important is the cash it can produce.

Out of interest, do you know how OCA values its assets?

And on what basis?

[Daytr]

According to the last financial report they get two valuations from commercial property brokers.

So the next valuation I assume will wipe out circa $200M plus of asset value + whatever they have completed in that time.
Very approximate.

[ValueNZ]

Out of interest, do you know how OCA values its assets?

And on what basis?
Yes roughly.

The investment properties are recorded at fair value by an independent auditor.

[ValueNZ]

Surely the equity value is the markets assessment of the cash OCA can produce.

Flavours of Sailor Rob there, hinting that others arent serious investors. Bit of humility needed, loads of successful investors on here with different strategies. Particularly now, its a funny old time on the sharemarkets generally, lots of sh!t cos going up like crazy. Shame not to join the party IMHO. Cause celebre probably doing ok with crypto this year... awesome
Shame not to join the party... As in sell what is cheap to buy what is expensive? Thanks for the advice.

[Bjauck]

Apologies off topic, but couldn't resist ... there are 36 shares up over 10% and 79 in the green. 19 are up more than 15% and 9 are up more than 20%. This is since the NZX open 2024. Unfortunately this does not include OCA which is down 18% Original post was ambiguous. I read “cos” as an informal “because”’. However OP may have meant “companies” so fair enough. There is always a wide disparity in performances for various reasons. There are 181 listings on the NZX from big to small. So if some dreadful companies have shot up, maybe some good as well as bad companies have gone backwards…including OCA. Overall the market has been fairly flat so far.

mpg down 27%, peb down 26%, Kmd down 20%, sct down 20%, hgh down 18%. RYm down 18%, SKL down 11% etc.

In NZD terms, and in capital terms European markets are up an average 10% and S&P500 is up 15%

[Baa_Baa]

Original post was ambiguous. I read “cos” as an informal “because”’. However OP may have meant “companies” so fair enough. There is always a wide disparity in performances for various reasons. There are 181 listings on the NZX from big to small. So if some dreadful companies have shot up, maybe some good as well as bad companies have gone backwards…including OCA. Overall the market has been fairly flat so far.

mpg down 27%, peb down 26%, Kmd down 20%, sct down 20%, hgh down 18%. RYm down 18%, SKL down 11% etc.

In NZD terms, and in net terms European markets are up an average 10% and S&P500 is up 15%

What's your point and what does it have to do with OCA? You implied (maybe said in a way) that the NZX is a dog market, when it's not at all for specific shares, it's only a dog if one has a market index, or the shares that the market currently thinks are worth less than they might be through the eyes of a value investor.

But that must surely be the definition of opportunity, seeing value in underpriced shares, and getting some, or some more? If you value a market and its shares by the share price that the market affords it, then you will miss any opportunity to get some, or get rid of some, when the time seems right to do so.

I think that your generalism on this was the undoing of your argument. As far as OCA is concerned, imho it would be wise to ask oneself whether now or around now is a good value investment, be it to get some, or accumulate a few more. I'm in the later having gone overweight OCA. It's cheap, cheap as, and in a year or two from now I expect to be proven right, by the market who right now are mis-pricing OCA, to our advantage.

Carpe Diem.

[Bjauck]

What's your point and what does it have to do with OCA? You implied (maybe said in a way) that the NZX is a dog market, when it's not at all for specific shares, it's only a dog if one has a market index, or the shares that the market currently thinks are worth less than they might be through the eyes of a value investor.

But that must surely be the definition of opportunity, seeing value in underpriced shares, and getting some, or some more? If you value a market and its shares by the share price that the market affords it, then you will miss any opportunity to get some, or get rid of some, when the time seems right to do so.

I think that your generalism on this was the undoing of your argument. As far as OCA is concerned, imho it would be wise to ask oneself whether now or around now is a good value investment, be it to get some, or accumulate a few more. I'm in the later having gone overweight OCA. It's cheap, cheap as, and in a year or two from now I expect to be proven right, by the market who right now are mis-pricing OCA, to our advantage.

Carpe Diem.
You really are making a mountain out of the mole hill that was my post in response to the OP. I misread the OP’s “cos” thinking they meant because. No I did not imply that the NZX is a “dog” market. I am sorry if you inferred that. I am overweight NZ shares currently. As a market I certainly don’t think it has gone up like “crazy” either. It is a stock pickers’ market.

I agree there are some good opportunities as a result of what may may be current mis-pricing. I too have accumulated OCA shares recently.

Carpe ius diem?

[Antipodean]

Not sure why $200 million will need to be wiped. 8% reduction seems pretty steep considering already accounted for much of the previous years market rate falls.
CBRE Limited and Colliers Limited are used regularly for independent valuations of property assets.


...Oceania has over $2.5 billion of assets and, of these, more than 90% of its total assets at 31 March 2023 were property assets carried at fair value as assessed by CBRE Limited and Colliers Limited.


Also worth noting in the same document they advised no need for a capital raise and even headroom for growth if required.

[Daytr]

Not sure why $200 million will need to be wiped. 8% reduction seems pretty steep considering already accounted for much of the previous years market rate falls.
CBRE Limited and Colliers Limited are used regularly for independent valuations of property assets.




Also worth noting in the same document they advised no need for a capital raise and even headroom for growth if required.

Does anyone buy REINZ figures that the housing market is up 5 - 6% in the last quarter or so? Short term data can be misleading.

I would suggest just more houses in a higher price brackets sold in the last months than the previous 12 months.

Prices in the same bracket i don't think have increased at all, they may well have decreased. Sales volume and auction clearances have been poor whilst listings have grown substantially.

[Antipodean]

Didn't mention REINZ - agree their data should always be investigated further.

OCA have a history of more modest increases due to property valudation (FY 23 ~0.5% and FY 22 ~2.0%) so I'm not worried about a sudden revaluation down of their assets - my assertion is that is already accounted for.

We need EPS growth and sales volumes.

[Balance]

Yes roughly.

The investment properties are recorded at fair value by an independent auditor.

I suggest you have a chat with a valuer like CBRE or one of the RVs to find out how they actually value RVs, which are then included in the RVs' accounts.

What I can tell you is that they use a combination of income capitalisation and discounted cash flow (yes, cash flow).

No weighting is given to comparative sales as valuation with RVs is underpinned by the specific strength of the Leases and Tenant covenant, and not the bricks and mortar.

[winner69]

I suggest you have a chat with a valuer like CBRE or one of the RVs to find out how they actually value RVs, which are then included in the RVs' accounts.

What I can tell you is that they use a combination of income capitalisation and discounted cash flow (yes, cash flow).

No weighting is given to comparative sales as valuation with RVs is underpinned by the specific strength of the Leases and Tenant covenant, and not the bricks and mortar.

I’ll repeat it mate …. Yes indeed, cash flows are used in determining the valuations

[Daytr]

I’ll repeat it mate …. Yes indeed, cash flows are used in determining the valuations

What would the cashflows be if they stopped expanding and just completed their existing builds and sold them even for a 10% profit and collected the DMF on resales?

As they are reinvesting profits from new sales & resales into more assets, the increase asset valuation surely does need to be considered.

This is why I get a valuation of around 99c & over time that should grow as long as they continue to make profits from sales & keep operationally at least break even or more.

[Balance]

What would the cashflows be if they stopped expanding and just completed their existing builds and sold them even for a 10% profit and collected the DMF on resales?

As they are reinvesting profits from new sales & resales into more assets, the increase asset valuation surely does need to be considered.

This is why I get a valuation of around 99c & over time that should grow as long as they continue to make profits from sales & keep operationally at least break even or more.

Valuation is an art rather than a science, it is often said. Nothing could be truer imo!

A discounted cashflow valuation takes into consideration a multitude of factors - principal one being cost of capital and the discount rate. A 1% movement there can have have a marked impact on valuation, especially with interest rates where they have been and where they are now.

Then there are the risk factors which are notoriously difficult to quantify and build into the discount rate.

Finally, the short term (1 to 5 years) free cashflows have a proportionally bigger impact than the terminal cashflows (>10 years).

From the above, it can be assessed that the short term (5 years) heavy capital expenditure and ongoing underlying operating losses have the greater impact on the valuation of OCA than say, a mature entity.

As my ex-boss used to coach us young rookies in the game, always ask yourself how long is a piece of string!

[winner69]

Warriors win again. Warrior’s fans getting even more excited. As one fan said ‘we’re on roll, early in the season but no way is this not our year’. Up the Wahs

Oceania fans seem to be getting slightly more excited as well. Cash rolling in from more sales to please the analysts …and the market. Sentiment is changing and share price will end the year well over a buck

The stars are aligning, both are destined to do great things this year. Where one goes the other goes

This is our year

UP THE WAHS

[Balance]

Warriors win again. Warrior’s fans getting even more excited. As one fan said ‘we’re on roll, early in the season but no way is this not our year’. Up the Wahs

Oceania fans seem to be getting slightly more excited as well. Cash rolling in from more sales to please the analysts …and the market. Sentiment is changing and share price will end the year well over a buck

The stars are aligning, both are destined to do great things this year. Where one goes the other goes

This is our year

UP THE WAHS

Absolutely W69!

Here’s to 65c tomorrow!

Cannot wait!

Dis. Invested during index selldown at 59c.

[limmy]

Wishful thinking ?
Well over a buck by the end of the year ?

[bottomfeeder]

Comment redacted.

[Balance]

Absolutely W69!

Here’s to 65c tomorrow!

Cannot wait!

Dis. Invested during index selldown at 59c.

62c rather than 65c today.

Will have to wait for this Sat’s match against the Rabbits, W69?

Hope they do not lose as the win over the weekend has done nothing towards the 65c first target sp point yet!

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar been buying. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428992

Next big announcement for me for the sector will be ARV's Investor update. Normally out early/mid April

[winner69]

For Bar been buying. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428992

Next big announcement for me for the sector will be ARV's Investor update. Normally out early/mid April

SUM sales report early next week will be interesting

[Balance]

SUM sales report early next week will be interesting

61c today.

Disconnect between the WAHs and OCA, W69 so what about the unit sales reports of SUM & ARV with OCA?

[Greekwatchdog]

SUM sales report early next week will be interesting

They just had full year result. ARV have a lot to live up to after the board didn't offer shareholders $1.70 offer. Also ARV is closer to the OCA beast mode than SUM

[allfromacell]

"March was the most active trading month the Auckland housing market has experienced in the past two years," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said. (https://www.interest.co.nz/property/127129/barfoot-thompsons-average-sales-price-rose-111345-march-rising-stock-levels-worry)

Sales volumes continue tracking higher, maybe everything is linked the Warriors after all...

[winner69]

"March was the most active trading month the Auckland housing market has experienced in the past two years," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said. (https://www.interest.co.nz/property/127129/barfoot-thompsons-average-sales-price-rose-111345-march-rising-stock-levels-worry)

Sales volumes continue tracking higher, maybe everything is linked the Warriors after all...

One of comments summarised the report as say .. "top end going gangbusters, mid and lower very much in the doldrums with vendors insane expectations" .. jokers .. lol

[winner69]

"March was the most active trading month the Auckland housing market has experienced in the past two years," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said. (https://www.interest.co.nz/property/127129/barfoot-thompsons-average-sales-price-rose-111345-march-rising-stock-levels-worry)

Sales volumes continue tracking higher, maybe everything is linked the Warriors after all...

Looking good for Oceania ….all will be revealed next month

[Balance]

61c today.

Disconnect between the WAHs and OCA, W69 so what about the unit sales reports of SUM & ARV with OCA?

63c bid!

65c next!

Go the WAHs! Delayed reaction by OCA sp!!!! :t_up:

[Greekwatchdog]

63c bid!

65c next!

Go the WAHs! Delayed reaction by OCA sp!!!! :t_up:

I fell the disappointment for the Wahs as this miss out again in Sept. One wonders what that means for OCA come Half Year Result in November 24/25.

HMMM

[winner69]

ARV put this chart in their update

The sector pecking order now seems to be SUM with a gap to ARV and RYM OCA the laggards

OCA will be up the top when they do this chart next time …….UP THE WAHS …this is our year

[winner69]

OCA share price up this week at 65 cents

Good omen for a Warriors win tomorrow

C’MON OCEANIA …..UP THE WAHS …this is our year

[Balance]

OCA share price up this week at 65 cents

Good omen for a Warriors win tomorrow

C’MON OCEANIA …..UP THE WAHS …this is our year

74 next target - 3c with each Warriors win!

Go you good thing!

Dis. Bought during index sell down at 59c.

[ValueNZ]

74 next target - 3c with each Warriors win!

Go you good thing!
Hopefully back down to 56c so I can get some more for dirt cheap.

[nztx]

Hopefully back down to 56c so I can get some more for dirt cheap.


Anyone sighted signs of the deep value coming to the surface with OCA yet ? :)

[Greekwatchdog]

Anyone sighted signs of the deep value coming to the surface with OCA yet ? :)

I personally believe the lows of 2/3 weeks ago are it, Todays ARV Investor update was positive and I personally feel the market will be pleasantly surprised with the FY result in May. OCA have scaled back there build rates and have plenty to sell

[Greekwatchdog]

74 next target - 3c with each Warriors win!

Go you good thing!

Dis. Bought during index sell down at 59c.

And how long do you see yourself in OCA Balance? Trade or medium/long term?

[nztx]

I personally believe the lows of 2/3 weeks ago are it, Todays ARV Investor update was positive and I personally feel the market will be pleasantly surprised with the FY result in May. OCA have scaled back there build rates and have plenty to sell

You might be right too .. despite the doom & gloom being cast out there .. certain sectors have had their safety rating affirmed in recent times

[winner69]

74 next target - 3c with each Warriors win!

Go you good thing!

Dis. Bought during index sell down at 59c.

Always good buying at 59 cents eh Balance

[ValueNZ]

I personally believe the lows of 2/3 weeks ago are it, Todays ARV Investor update was positive and I personally feel the market will be pleasantly surprised with the FY result in May. OCA have scaled back there build rates and have plenty to sell
You're probably right. OCA has had 2.5 years of their share price being hammered... Still would be nice to pick up more shares though!

Also agree that the ARV newsletter was excellent.

[Baa_Baa]

Momentum trade is in play right now (has been since early March), well done anyone who bought the bottom, though we're past that right now. 50EMA stalled out OCA yesterday, but opened at it today and put on a few cents above. Momentum trade is in play, right now. Resistance above at .66 -.67 and if that breaks, the 200EMA at about .70 and then the range resistance .74 - .80.

Plenty of sector positives emerging (ref ARV today), this could run, and it is the cheapest, smashed below NTA or any other metric you choose.

Still happy getting some in the .6's maybe even .7's but after that, if it happens ... reckon you're chasing it and missed the ... wait for it ... 'inflection point'.

LOL :t_up:

[Greekwatchdog]

Always good buying at 59 cents eh Balance

My last buy was at $0.58 but then my average is $0.61423...... Balance gets me there if his Entry is $0.59 period.

[Greekwatchdog]

Momentum trade is in play right now (has been since early March), well done anyone who bought the bottom, though we're past that right now. 50EMA stalled out OCA yesterday, but opened at it today and put on a few cents above. Momentum trade is in play, right now. Resistance above at .66 -.67 and if that breaks, the 200EMA at about .70 and then the range resistance .74 - .80.

Plenty of sector positives emerging (ref ARV today), this could run, and it is the cheapest, smashed below NTA or any other metric you choose.

Still happy getting some in the .6's maybe even .7's but after that, if it happens ... reckon you're chasing it and missed the ... wait for it ... 'inflection point'.

LOL :t_up:

Oh you tease, here I was thinking "Inflection" had been cast a side for another decade but for you to bring it back lol. Maybe Brent will really show the Inflection....

[winner69]

ARV had a strong second half of year sales wise and a boomer 4th quarter (March Qtr)

They also said….”Into the new financial year there is good momentum with almost 40% of resales inventory at March end sold”

Expect good numbers from SUM on March quarter sales next week

Seems really positive momentum selling stuff in the sector so Oceania should report some really strong numbers in May …it’s all looking good

It’s all about sales sales and even more sales these days

[winner69]

Arvida reported a 11% increase in new sales for F24 v F23

An extra 21 units

But in spite of the increase in numbers realised gains ($ margin) was the same as F23

Hope OCA do better than this …like sell more and make more

[winner69]

Great win Warriors…..thrashed the Rabbitohs 34-4. Bigger win than expected. They are getting better with every game ….real momentum building.

League legend Gorden Tallis said the other night the Warriors are the “real deal”. That’s a heck of an endorsement. Many are convinced that Oceania is the “real deal” as well.

So Warriors on a roll. Momentum is building. BaaBaa said Oceania got momentum at the moment as well.

So all going good …..this is our year

C’MON OCEANIA …..UP THE WAHS …..this is our year

[Rawz]

Missed the game so needed to check the score. Quickest way is to check the OCA thread lol.

Looks like a good win

[Baa_Baa]

So Warriors on a roll. Momentum is building. BaaBaa said Oceania got momentum at the moment as well.

Sure is! Up over 18% already from the lows, like who would've thought OCA would get down to $0.55 late Feb, wasn't that a gift. OCA put in 3x average volume on Friday, probably encouraged by the ARV sales results.

Sales sales sales, and not long to wait now to find out. SUM reporting in-between, they have made a habit of smashing sales. The secret sauce of RV's, develop, sell, resell, resell, resell .. ad infinitum.

[mike2020]

I can only imagine the nautical one reading these posts with glee. A quick flea bath and a trip to the groomers and the love of the canine is palpable. Do you want a rate cut? Do you? Theres a good boy 😁

[winner69]

Warriors thrash the Rabbitohs (who were at home)

Now the call out is out to get rid of the Rabbitohs coach …..not performing to expectations, doing the same old and not talking to disappointed fans.

Couldn’t help but think jeez sounds like Oceania …….not performing to expectations etc etc but the CEO preempting the call for him to be fired by jumping ship. Could be an ominous sign for what’s in (or not) in the May report.

Could be ‘this is our year’ for the Warriors but Oceania will be like the Rabbitohs and languish …..and have to wait for another ‘this is our year’

Parallels between OCA and the NRL getting spooky. Hopefully not playing out differently than I thought it would.

[Daytr]

Warriors thrash the Rabbitohs (who were at home)

Now the call out is out to get rid of the Rabbitohs coach …..not performing to expectations, doing the same old and not talking to disappointed fans.

Couldn’t help but think jeez sounds like Oceania …….not performing to expectations etc etc but the CEO preempting the call for him to be fired by jumping ship. Could be an ominous sign for what’s in (or not) in the May report.

Could be ‘this is our year’ for the Warriors but Oceania will be like the Rabbitohs and languish …..and have to wait for another ‘this is our year’

Parallels between OCA and the NRL getting spooky. Hopefully not playing out differently than I thought it would.

I certainly made more out of the Warriors on Saturday night that I have with OCA.
But perhaps I need to buy some shares first. ;-)
Mind you if I had like most punters I would no doubt be in the red!

[winner69]

Balance …OCA at 66 cents yesterday …today could see another cent or two

Nowa+20% from recent lows

[ValueNZ]

Anyone who bought during the index selldown will be feeling happy with themselves. I was happy to pick up shares at 62c, 60c, and 58c.

Although I must admit I am surprised at the arbitrage opportunity that might actually exist with these selldowns...

[mistaTea]

Anyone who bought during the index selldown will be feeling happy with themselves. I was happy to pick up shares at 62c, 60c, and 58c.

Although I must admit I am surprised at the arbitrage opportunity that might actually exist with these selldowns...

AI says you will get 75c so everyone can rest easy…

*****

The current price of Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA.NZ) is NZD 0.6600. Based on the data, the stock has had a 1-year return of 6.82% and a 3-year return of 45.14%. With a recent performance and trend analysis, let's project the future price.

Considering the steady performance and the sector's resilience, along with general market conditions, OCA.NZ could experience moderate growth over the next 12 months. Assuming a continued focus on healthcare services and possible expansion or operational improvements, the stock might see an incremental increase in value. Factoring in these elements and using technical analysis models, my prediction for OCA.NZ over the next 12 months is a target price around NZD 0.75. This estimation considers the historical growth patterns, current market conditions, and the company's sector.

Remember, this is not financial advice but a prediction based on technical analysis and current market trends. For further insights and tips on how to trade options, you might want to click on [https://discord.gg/titantrades](https://discord.gg/titantrades). Also, subscribing to [https://titantrades.substack.com/](https://titantrades.substack.com/) can provide you with valuable prompt engineering tips.

---
Subscribe for prompt engineering tips and for tips on how to trade options.

[Baa_Baa]

AI says you will get 75c so everyone can rest easy…

*****

The current price of Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA.NZ) is NZD 0.6600. Based on the data, the stock has had a 1-year return of 6.82% and a 3-year return of 45.14%. With a recent performance and trend analysis, let's project the future price.

Considering the steady performance and the sector's resilience, along with general market conditions, OCA.NZ could experience moderate growth over the next 12 months. Assuming a continued focus on healthcare services and possible expansion or operational improvements, the stock might see an incremental increase in value. Factoring in these elements and using technical analysis models, my prediction for OCA.NZ over the next 12 months is a target price around NZD 0.75. This estimation considers the historical growth patterns, current market conditions, and the company's sector.

Remember, this is not financial advice but a prediction based on technical analysis and current market trends. For further insights and tips on how to trade options, you might want to click on [https://discord.gg/titantrades](https://discord.gg/titantrades). Also, subscribing to [https://titantrades.substack.com/](https://titantrades.substack.com/) can provide you with valuable prompt engineering tips.

---
Subscribe for prompt engineering tips and for tips on how to trade options.

Based on that, I would cancel my subscription to whatever AI it is:

I don't have 3 year returns, but 2 year returns (from Sharesight analysis) is -17.85% and 5 year returns is -3.82%.

And the advice from the AI on trading 'options' in OCA seems completely bogus, I don't think there is an options chain for OCA, is there?

[mistaTea]

Based on that, I would cancel my subscription to whatever AI it is:

I don't have 3 year returns, but 2 year returns (from Sharesight analysis) is -17.85% and 5 year returns is -3.82%.

And the advice from the AI on trading 'options' in OCA seems completely bogus, I don't think there is an options chain for OCA, is there?

Yes indeed, I have quizzed it and it is adamant it got the figures from Yahoo Finance.

It says it did not calculate the figures but got it from the data source. But I can’t find those numbers anywhere.

Morningstar says the 3 year return is approx -17%.

So whatever numbers it it getting for OCA from Yahoo are way off in this case.

Damn, I thought you guys could take the 75c AI predicted to the bank!

[bull....]

Anyone who bought during the index selldown will be feeling happy with themselves. I was happy to pick up shares at 62c, 60c, and 58c.

Although I must admit I am surprised at the arbitrage opportunity that might actually exist with these selldowns...

you forgot to mention you have been averging down , instead you implied you brought the bottom like many other's on here do.

[ValueNZ]

you forgot to mention you have been averging down , instead you implied you brought the bottom like many other's on here do.
Never implied that at all, I've been buying since 82c. My average is now 69c.

I was just expressing my happiness to be able to buy shares so damn cheaply.

[ValueNZ]

Yes indeed, I have quizzed it and it is adamant it got the figures from Yahoo Finance.

It says it did not calculate the figures but got it from the data source. But I can’t find those numbers anywhere.

Morningstar says the 3 year return is approx -17%.

So whatever numbers it it getting for OCA from Yahoo are way off in this case.

Damn, I thought you guys could take the 75c AI predicted to the bank!
Your AI sucks. Stop making posts with it, it really is unbearable to read.

[mistaTea]

Your AI sucks. Stop making posts with it, it really is unbearable to read.

Come on now, don’t be like that honey.

You are going to hurt my AI’s feelings with talk like that!

[winner69]

Come on now, don’t be like that honey.

You are going to hurt my AI’s feelings with talk like that!

You should ask AÍ something along the lines of ‘is Oceania a good stock tor a true value investor like Valuenz to follow’

[Daytr]

you forgot to mention you have been averging down , instead you implied you brought the bottom like many other's on here do.

Not sure what ValueNZ meant by arbitrage opportunity either?

[mistaTea]

You should ask AÍ something along the lines of ‘is Oceania a good stock tor a true value investor like Valuenz to follow’

Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA.NZ) is currently priced at NZD 0.6600, showing a steady performance in its latest trading session. With a market capitalization of NZD 477.942 million and a P/E ratio of 33.00, it operates in a sector that has seen varied institutional and retail investor interest over time. The stock has a dividend yield of 4.13%, offering a forward dividend of NZD 0.03. Over the past year, OCA.NZ has demonstrated a 13.16% year-to-date return and a 6.82% one-year return, which are significant compared to the broader S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS performance. The company has a diverse operation in care centers and retirement villages across New Zealand, indicating a stable presence in the healthcare and retirement living sectors.


For a true value investor like Valuenz from Sharetrader.co.nz, Oceania Healthcare presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. The steady dividend yield and the stock's performance in a resilient sector could be attractive. However, the P/E ratio of 33.00 might signal a relatively high valuation, suggesting that investors are paying a premium for its earnings. This could be a point of caution for value investors, who typically seek undervalued stocks with the potential for significant appreciation. Given these factors, Oceania Healthcare could be a stock to follow, with a detailed analysis required to ascertain its true value proposition in the context of a long-term investment strategy.


Remember, the stock market is inherently unpredictable, and investing in stocks involves a degree of risk. It's essential to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

[winner69]

Nice on AI …so Valuenz needs to take caution

Suppose AI hasn’t heard about the float :)

[Baa_Baa]

Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA.NZ) is currently priced at NZD 0.6600, showing a steady performance in its latest trading session. With a market capitalization of NZD 477.942 million and a P/E ratio of 33.00, it operates in a sector that has seen varied institutional and retail investor interest over time. The stock has a dividend yield of 4.13%, offering a forward dividend of NZD 0.03. Over the past year, OCA.NZ has demonstrated a 13.16% year-to-date return and a 6.82% one-year return, which are significant compared to the broader S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS performance.

This is absolute BS, geez, what use is AI if you have to fact check it:

P/E 12.07
Gross Div yield 1.97%
Forward Div 0% (suspended)
YTD return -13.16%
One year return -6.51%

Throw away your AI, it's making you look foolish.

[Bjauck]

Your AI sucks. Stop making posts with it, it really is unbearable to read. OCA’s SP is half of what it was three years ago. Rather than any other source, including brokers, I am going to throw a dart at a dart board to estimate what it will be in three years from now!

[mistaTea]

This is absolute BS, geez, what use is AI if you have to fact check it:

P/E 12.07
Gross Div yield 1.97%
Forward Div 0% (suspended)
YTD return -13.16%
One year return -6.51%

Throw away your AI, it's making you look foolish.


All of this AI stuff for stock analysis is tongue in cheek. Nobody is going to use a bot to determine how a stock is going to perform.

It is using Yahoo Finance for its info - and YF has the PE at 33 and forward divvy and yield at 0.03 (4.13%).

So the AI is not being 'stupid' but is relying on YF for its primary source of info.

[winner69]

All of this AI stuff for stock analysis is tongue in cheek. Nobody is going to use a bot to determine how a stock is going to perform
……..

Maybe some already do and more will use AÍ instead of bpguru analysts …but then guru analysts might already be using AÍ

After all Musk reckons AÍ will overtake human intelligence next year

[limmy]

Didn't OCA stop paying dividends ?
The dividend yield should be 0%

[Greekwatchdog]

Didn't OCA stop paying dividends ?
The dividend yield should be 0%

Yes in the first half. Not sure about Full year

[ValueNZ]

Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA.NZ) is currently priced at NZD 0.6600, showing a steady performance in its latest trading session. With a market capitalization of NZD 477.942 million and a P/E ratio of 33.00, it operates in a sector that has seen varied institutional and retail investor interest over time. The stock has a dividend yield of 4.13%, offering a forward dividend of NZD 0.03. Over the past year, OCA.NZ has demonstrated a 13.16% year-to-date return and a 6.82% one-year return, which are significant compared to the broader S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS performance. The company has a diverse operation in care centers and retirement villages across New Zealand, indicating a stable presence in the healthcare and retirement living sectors.


For a true value investor like Valuenz from Sharetrader.co.nz, Oceania Healthcare presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. The steady dividend yield and the stock's performance in a resilient sector could be attractive. However, the P/E ratio of 33.00 might signal a relatively high valuation, suggesting that investors are paying a premium for its earnings. This could be a point of caution for value investors, who typically seek undervalued stocks with the potential for significant appreciation. Given these factors, Oceania Healthcare could be a stock to follow, with a detailed analysis required to ascertain its true value proposition in the context of a long-term investment strategy.


Remember, the stock market is inherently unpredictable, and investing in stocks involves a degree of risk. It's essential to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Aw man couldn't give you more negative rep. A block will have to do I think.

[ValueNZ]

OCA’s SP is half of what it was three years ago. Rather than any other source, including brokers, I am going to throw a dart at a dart board to estimate what it will be in three years from now!
... OCA has become a bargain, and that is exactly why I became a shareholder ~1.5 years ago.

[ValueNZ]

Not sure what ValueNZ meant by arbitrage opportunity either?
Arbitrage doesn't have to be instantaneous. Buying during the sell down and selling now (or in the near future) could be considered arbitrage. But I'm not convinced entirely that an index selling down consistently creates an arbitrage opportunity... Seems too good to be true.

[Daytr]

Arbitrage doesn't have to be instantaneous. Buying during the sell down and selling now (or in the near future) could be considered arbitrage. But I'm not convinced entirely that an index selling down consistently creates an arbitrage opportunity... Seems too good to be true.

Nope that's just buying & selling.
Not arbitrage.
Anyway best of luck.

[mistaTea]

Aw man couldn't give you more negative rep. A block will have to do I think.

Awww, diddums!

[Habits]

... OCA has become a bargain, and that is exactly why I became a shareholder ~1.5 years ago.

Dead money

[mistaTea]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/502982/oceania-healthcare-reports-35-point-2m-half-year-net-profit

AI’s take on this article:

The article reports that Oceania Healthcare, an aged care service provider, has announced a significant increase in its half-year net profit, reaching $35.2 million compared to $11.2 million in the same period last year. This increase is largely attributed to a gain in the value of its property portfolio. Revenue also rose to $131.6 million from $122.1 million, while underlying profit slightly decreased from $38.1 million to $37.6 million.

Notably, the company has decided not to pay an interim dividend, opting instead to reinvest in its growth and portfolio transformation. This decision underscores the company's focus on developing its property assets, which have grown by 6% to a total of $2.7 billion. This growth includes a fair value movement of $61.6 million and other developments.

The company highlights its success in developing and selling premium, bespoke residences, especially in regions outside Auckland, with total sales volumes increasing by 13% and a 38% increase in new sale volumes of independent living units and care suites.

Potential investors should consider several factors:
- **Growth Strategy**: The company's decision to reinvest profits into its growth and portfolio transformation suggests a long-term strategy focused on asset development.
- **Portfolio Value Increase**: The significant gain in portfolio value, contributing to the net profit, may reflect well on the company's asset management capabilities but also indicates that profit is notably influenced by property market fluctuations.
- **Dividend Policy**: The decision not to pay an interim dividend might concern investors looking for regular income, although it indicates a prioritization of growth investment.
- **Market Dependence**: The increase in sales volumes, especially outside Auckland, shows market expansion but also suggests potential vulnerability to regional market dynamics.

Overall, while Oceania Healthcare's recent performance indicates strong growth and strategic asset development, potential investors should be cautious of its reliance on property value gains and regional market conditions, as well as the current lack of dividend payments .

[mistaTea]

Arbitrage doesn't have to be instantaneous. Buying during the sell down and selling now (or in the near future) could be considered arbitrage. But I'm not convinced entirely that an index selling down consistently creates an arbitrage opportunity... Seems too good to be true.

LOL. And you say AI is stupid! Ha! :D

[mistaTea]

Nope that's just buying & selling.
Not arbitrage.
Anyway best of luck.

Yep, that is literally just buying and selling at a future point.

Worthless may as well say I can buy some BRK stock today and if ya think about it...when I sell 20 years later it is sorta like arbitrage in a way! he he he.

Just have to look at it the 'right way' dummies!!

[mistaTea]

Thinking more about that arbitrage comment.

I can sort of see how these guys have landed in the doo doo here a bit.

It’s like when they took the insurance concept of float and have built a whole model around how resident loans are ‘kinda like float if ya really look at it in just the right way’.

When really it is not.

The majority of insurance customers pay their premiums for years, decades even and either never claim or claim very little. So all that money builds up and provided the cash coming in is, on average, higher than the money going out for the smaller number of clients who do claim …you have float. Lovely.

OCA first have to build a very expensive facility and then try to market and sell their units. Once they do sell a unit it is all but certain that they are going to have to pay a chunk of it back … either to the resident if they decide to move out or whatever is left of the loan to the beneficiaries once the resident kicks the bucket.

It’s not even remotely comparable to insurance float.

But by Christ these guys have latched onto this as though it is real and sit here year in, year out scratching their balls wondering why Mr Market just doesn’t ’get it’ 🤭

[Poet]

MistaTea wrote
''Once they do sell a unit it is all but certain that they are going to have to pay a chunk of it back … either to the resident if they decide to move out or whatever is left of the loan to the beneficiaries once the resident kicks the bucket.''

Yes, but they don't have to pay that chunk of it back until they have resold the unit to new resident (at a higher price). That's the concept of the float

[ValueNZ]

Thinking more about that arbitrage comment.

I can sort of see how these guys have landed in the doo doo here a bit.

It’s like when they took the insurance concept of float and have built a whole model around how resident loans are ‘kinda like float if ya really look at it in just the right way’.

When really it is not.

The majority of insurance customers pay their premiums for years, decades even and either never claim or claim very little. So all that money builds up and provided the cash coming in is, on average, higher than the money going out for the smaller number of clients who do claim …you have float. Lovely.

OCA first have to build a very expensive facility and then try to market and sell their units. Once they do sell a unit it is all but certain that they are going to have to pay a chunk of it back … either to the resident if they decide to move out or whatever is left of the loan to the beneficiaries once the resident kicks the bucket.

It’s not even remotely comparable to insurance float.

But by Christ these guys have latched onto this as though it is real and sit here year in, year out scratching their balls wondering why Mr Market just doesn’t ’get it’ 來
I found this report recently by a guy by the name of Geoff Gannon, he is pretty small but listening to his podcasts seems very intelligent, and has outperformed the market.

https://focusedcompounding.com/summerset-sum-a-new-zealand-retirement-village-developer-with-float/ (https://focusedcompounding.com/summerset-sum-a-new-zealand-retirement-village-developer-with-float/)



Thesis Point 2: Float

Operators in the retirement village industry generate costless float with every sales cycle which they can use to fund new developments without using large amounts of equity. This is especially effective when there is already a large, mature base that can generate the float to fund newer developments
The float is booked as a liability called “Resident Loans” on the balance sheet. By selling what are effectively timeshares in retirement units, developers can finance over 80% of capital for new property developments at zero interest rates. At the same time, the DMF portion pays for ongoing operating costs at existing villages

https://focusedcompounding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/007_Summerset.jpg


A look at the balance sheet confirms that $735MM in completed villages are currently generating $867MM in resident loan float. Summerset is borrowing an additional $315MM from banks to build out $777MM in additional retirement villages currently under development as well as a $293MM Landbank for future propsed villages. The astute reader will note that the $ value of properties under development is currently larger than the $ value of completed villages
As shown in Thesis Point 1, the development of new villages is generating a ~4% ROA per annum through development margins. If, at some point Summerset stopped growing, it could invest its float into bonds and probably generate a similar ROA. At this point, growing the float by building out further retirement villages is, however, more value accretive

[mistaTea]

I found this report recently by a guy by the name of Geoff Gannon, he is pretty small but listening to his podcasts seems very intelligent, and has outperformed the market.

https://focusedcompounding.com/summerset-sum-a-new-zealand-retirement-village-developer-with-float/ (https://focusedcompounding.com/summerset-sum-a-new-zealand-retirement-village-developer-with-float/)



Thesis Point 2: Float

Operators in the retirement village industry generate costless float with every sales cycle which they can use to fund new developments without using large amounts of equity. This is especially effective when there is already a large, mature base that can generate the float to fund newer developments
The float is booked as a liability called “Resident Loans” on the balance sheet. By selling what are effectively timeshares in retirement units, developers can finance over 80% of capital for new property developments at zero interest rates. At the same time, the DMF portion pays for ongoing operating costs at existing villages

https://focusedcompounding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/007_Summerset.jpg


A look at the balance sheet confirms that $735MM in completed villages are currently generating $867MM in resident loan float. Summerset is borrowing an additional $315MM from banks to build out $777MM in additional retirement villages currently under development as well as a $293MM Landbank for future propsed villages. The astute reader will note that the $ value of properties under development is currently larger than the $ value of completed villages
As shown in Thesis Point 1, the development of new villages is generating a ~4% ROA per annum through development margins. If, at some point Summerset stopped growing, it could invest its float into bonds and probably generate a similar ROA. At this point, growing the float by building out further retirement villages is, however, more value accretive


I’m just stoked you didn’t really block me honey!

Geoff must use ST as his main analysis source.

[mistaTea]

I found this report recently by a guy by the name of Geoff Gannon, he is pretty small but listening to his podcasts seems very intelligent, and has outperformed the market.

https://focusedcompounding.com/summerset-sum-a-new-zealand-retirement-village-developer-with-float/ (https://focusedcompounding.com/summerset-sum-a-new-zealand-retirement-village-developer-with-float/)



Thesis Point 2: Float

Operators in the retirement village industry generate costless float with every sales cycle which they can use to fund new developments without using large amounts of equity. This is especially effective when there is already a large, mature base that can generate the float to fund newer developments
The float is booked as a liability called “Resident Loans” on the balance sheet. By selling what are effectively timeshares in retirement units, developers can finance over 80% of capital for new property developments at zero interest rates. At the same time, the DMF portion pays for ongoing operating costs at existing villages

https://focusedcompounding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/007_Summerset.jpg


A look at the balance sheet confirms that $735MM in completed villages are currently generating $867MM in resident loan float. Summerset is borrowing an additional $315MM from banks to build out $777MM in additional retirement villages currently under development as well as a $293MM Landbank for future propsed villages. The astute reader will note that the $ value of properties under development is currently larger than the $ value of completed villages
As shown in Thesis Point 1, the development of new villages is generating a ~4% ROA per annum through development margins. If, at some point Summerset stopped growing, it could invest its float into bonds and probably generate a similar ROA. At this point, growing the float by building out further retirement villages is, however, more value accretive


As the whole float thing doesn’t quite pass the sniff test, I asked my ‘personal consultant’ to review that 21 page document for me and comment on the idea of ‘float’ in the retirement village context.

Come on, you gotta admit this is fun?

****

Geoff Gannon's application of the 'float' concept to the retirement village sector, particularly in the case of Summerset, is innovative and presents an interesting financial perspective. However, there are critical points and nuances that suggest this might not be a precise or fully applicable comparison to the traditional understanding of 'float'. Here's why the analogy may be considered incorrect or overly simplistic:

1. **Nature of 'Float'**: In its most common financial context, particularly in insurance, 'float' refers to money collected from premiums before claims are paid out. This money can be invested for the benefit of the insurer during the interim. The critical aspect is that this money is, theoretically, not the company's but will be used to cover future claims. In contrast, the money collected from residents in retirement villages, while it does serve as upfront capital (akin to interest-free loans), represents a contractual obligation to provide housing and services, not to cover claims or losses. This fundamental difference in the nature of obligations makes the retirement village 'float' conceptually different from insurance float.

2. **Risk Profile**: The risks associated with managing 'float' in insurance are significantly different from those in operating a retirement village. Insurers use the 'float' to make investments that can cover the future claims and still generate profit. For retirement villages, the collected funds (considered 'float') are primarily used for development and operational costs. The risk of real estate market fluctuations and the demographic shifts affecting demand for retirement villages do not parallel the insurance industry's investment and claim risks

3. **Return and Utilization**: Insurance companies can invest 'float' in a wide range of assets, aiming for returns that exceed their claims and operational expenses. For retirement villages, the use of funds is more restricted, primarily funneling into real estate and operational services. This limitation impacts the potential for generating additional income from these funds, unlike 'float' in the insurance sector, where investments can lead to significant profits beyond the core business model.

4. **Accounting and Financial Implications**: 'Float' in insurance is an understood and accepted financial concept with clear accounting practices for handling these funds. Applying the 'float' concept to retirement villages introduces complexity into financial statements, as these funds must be accounted for differently, reflecting obligations to residents rather than potential claims payouts. This complexity could lead to challenges in financial analysis and valuation.

5. **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory oversight for insurance companies managing 'float' is stringent, with specific requirements for reserves to ensure claims can be paid. The regulatory environment for retirement villages, while also stringent, operates under different principles, focusing on consumer protection and quality of service rather than financial solvency related to claims payouts. This difference highlights another area where the analogy between insurance 'float' and retirement village funds breaks down.

In conclusion, while the comparison can offer interesting insights into the financial management of retirement villages, the fundamental differences in obligation nature, risk profile, utilisation of funds, and regulatory considerations suggest that equating retirement village funds to 'float' in the traditional sense may not be entirely accurate or appropriate.

[ValueNZ]

As the whole float thing doesn’t quite pass the sniff test, I asked my ‘personal consultant’ to review that 21 page document for me and comment on the idea of ‘float’ in the retirement village context.

Come on, you gotta admit this is fun?

****

Geoff Gannon's application of the 'float' concept to the retirement village sector, particularly in the case of Summerset, is innovative and presents an interesting financial perspective. However, there are critical points and nuances that suggest this might not be a precise or fully applicable comparison to the traditional understanding of 'float'. Here's why the analogy may be considered incorrect or overly simplistic:

1. **Nature of 'Float'**: In its most common financial context, particularly in insurance, 'float' refers to money collected from premiums before claims are paid out. This money can be invested for the benefit of the insurer during the interim. The critical aspect is that this money is, theoretically, not the company's but will be used to cover future claims. In contrast, the money collected from residents in retirement villages, while it does serve as upfront capital (akin to interest-free loans), represents a contractual obligation to provide housing and services, not to cover claims or losses. This fundamental difference in the nature of obligations makes the retirement village 'float' conceptually different from insurance float.

2. **Risk Profile**: The risks associated with managing 'float' in insurance are significantly different from those in operating a retirement village. Insurers use the 'float' to make investments that can cover the future claims and still generate profit. For retirement villages, the collected funds (considered 'float') are primarily used for development and operational costs. The risk of real estate market fluctuations and the demographic shifts affecting demand for retirement villages do not parallel the insurance industry's investment and claim risks

3. **Return and Utilization**: Insurance companies can invest 'float' in a wide range of assets, aiming for returns that exceed their claims and operational expenses. For retirement villages, the use of funds is more restricted, primarily funneling into real estate and operational services. This limitation impacts the potential for generating additional income from these funds, unlike 'float' in the insurance sector, where investments can lead to significant profits beyond the core business model.

4. **Accounting and Financial Implications**: 'Float' in insurance is an understood and accepted financial concept with clear accounting practices for handling these funds. Applying the 'float' concept to retirement villages introduces complexity into financial statements, as these funds must be accounted for differently, reflecting obligations to residents rather than potential claims payouts. This complexity could lead to challenges in financial analysis and valuation.

5. **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory oversight for insurance companies managing 'float' is stringent, with specific requirements for reserves to ensure claims can be paid. The regulatory environment for retirement villages, while also stringent, operates under different principles, focusing on consumer protection and quality of service rather than financial solvency related to claims payouts. This difference highlights another area where the analogy between insurance 'float' and retirement village funds breaks down.

In conclusion, while the comparison can offer interesting insights into the financial management of retirement villages, the fundamental differences in obligation nature, risk profile, utilisation of funds, and regulatory considerations suggest that equating retirement village funds to 'float' in the traditional sense may not be entirely accurate or appropriate.
Did SkyTV pass the sniff test?

You're right that OCA's float is not like insurance float, it's actually far superior.

[Baa_Baa]

You're right that OCA's float is not like insurance float, it's actually far superior.

He's not right, it's his AI that is right. The RV float (which even the AI acknowledges does exist) only has similarities to Insurance floats. It was a useful analogy though that SR raised, to get people thinking about how these RV's fund their development and sustain their growth, however it appears on the balance sheet.

[Meister]

I am afraid to say it as well mistaTea but I find the AI posts neither fun nor interesting. I do think all members should refrain from copying and pasting AI output here.

Regarding the float concept, I suspect there is something in it.
The fact that the amount paid back when a resident leaves is replenished by the subsequent resident means for every unit we basically have its full value in cash on hand at any time. It is an interest free loan we have to repay that we can repay by just taking out another interest free loan. We perpetually have someone else's money at our disposal, which can be used to our benefit. If things are going well each subsequent loan is also bigger than the last one. After many cycles we end up with far more loaned from residents than we ever had cash initially that set the ball rolling.

I have seen a lot of flak thrown at Sailor around this but I think most of that was really due to his personality. I have yet to see a particularly convincing take-down of the float concept that triggers an 'aha' moment for me, but certainly would like to see both sides of the argument properly. What am I missing?

There are potential concerns with it that might stop it working as well as Sailor made it sound.
The DMF being adequate enough to cover expenses or not makes a big difference to the equation.
The growth engine here is also quite tied to selling the unit for more to the next resident than we did for the last one. The less this happens, the less potent the cycle is of course.
The ability to actually sell units quickly is critical, as is getting the replenishing renewals in quickly. If the stream of new residents coming in is disrupted or not as forthcoming as expected, then the cycle can breakdown. In the worst case the liability could become a big problem. I suspect the covid lows were reflecting this disaster possibility.

[Daytr]

I found this report recently by a guy by the name of Geoff Gannon, he is pretty small but listening to his podcasts seems very intelligent, and has outperformed the market.

https://focusedcompounding.com/summerset-sum-a-new-zealand-retirement-village-developer-with-float/ (https://focusedcompounding.com/summerset-sum-a-new-zealand-retirement-village-developer-with-float/)



Thesis Point 2: Float

Operators in the retirement village industry generate costless float with every sales cycle which they can use to fund new developments without using large amounts of equity. This is especially effective when there is already a large, mature base that can generate the float to fund newer developments
The float is booked as a liability called “Resident Loans” on the balance sheet. By selling what are effectively timeshares in retirement units, developers can finance over 80% of capital for new property developments at zero interest rates. At the same time, the DMF portion pays for ongoing operating costs at existing villages

https://focusedcompounding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/007_Summerset.jpg


A look at the balance sheet confirms that $735MM in completed villages are currently generating $867MM in resident loan float. Summerset is borrowing an additional $315MM from banks to build out $777MM in additional retirement villages currently under development as well as a $293MM Landbank for future propsed villages. The astute reader will note that the $ value of properties under development is currently larger than the $ value of completed villages
As shown in Thesis Point 1, the development of new villages is generating a ~4% ROA per annum through development margins. If, at some point Summerset stopped growing, it could invest its float into bonds and probably generate a similar ROA. At this point, growing the float by building out further retirement villages is, however, more value accretive


Or simply put, they raise capital, use that capital to build units, sell the units & use the proceeds & debt to build more units, rinse & repeat.

Pretty standard developer practice, or any business really, who sells widgets to buy & sell more widgets.

No magic float.

Even SailorBoy finally agreed the 'float' doesn't even-tempered until they stop building and build a pile of cash from the DMF on resales.

[ValueNZ]

Or simply put, they raise capital, use that capital to build units, sell the units & use the proceeds & debt to build more units, rinse & repeat.

Pretty standard developer practice, or any business really, who sells widgets to buy & sell more widgets.

No magic float.

Even SailorBoy finally agreed the 'float' doesn't even-tempered until they stop building and build a pile of cash from the DMF on resales.

Yeah Daytr, it's standard practice for property developers to recieve cash upon sale of a unit and retain ownership of that unit. :confused:

[Baa_Baa]

Or simply put, they raise capital, use that capital to build units, sell the units & use the proceeds & debt to build more units, rinse & repeat.

Pretty standard developer practice, or any business really, who sells widgets to buy & sell more widgets.

No magic float.

Not really, that's the standard property developer model. OCA don't really have to "raise capital' before they develop, that's only done when they want to accelerate development. There is plenty of capital available at no interest to develop their properties.

Look, people buy an ORA, OCA gets the whole amount including DMF, they can use that however they want to. When the resident departs, OCA pay back to the resident estate ORA-30%, when the ORA is re-sold. That 30% is never repaid while in meantime 100% of it is available for leveraging development.

Who cares wether it's called a 'float' or not, it is a very successful business model and about 95% of clients are satisfied with it. It's very similar across the whole RV sector. There's about 480 'retirement villages' in NZ and a large proportion of them sell ORA's for their independent living 'units'. It's just that not all of them are as focused on growth by development as the listed RV's are.

Really, the only question on my mind is whether OCA can convert all of their backlog of property into ORA's (sales), and start rewarding their shareholders.

It's not about SailerRob, though credit to him for expanding our minds as to strength and the sustainability of the business model through leverage of the large and ever growing pile of cash that will never be repaid, never incurs interest, is the foundation of growth. Time to move on.

[Baa_Baa]

Yeah Daytr, it's standard practice for property developers to recieve cash upon sale of a unit and retain ownership of that unit. :confused:

This is the big difference, but to be fair, a lot of the big developers (the listed ones) don't 'sell' their properties, they lease them out to renters and do retain ownership. The underlying difference between the RV's and the listed property developers is the upfront sale of an ORA (RV's), and how that can be leveraged, versus the build it-lease it model of the property developers. Both retain the assets, but the RV's realise substantially more cash upfront and can recycle it, than the regular listed property developers, who rely on payback over a much longer period.

[Snow Leopard]

There are some pretty weird beliefs on this thread. :mellow:

But then I still believe in HGH. :t_up:


AIR has a better 'float' than OCA.*

*subtle

[mistaTea]

There are some pretty weird beliefs on this thread. :mellow:

But then I still believe in HGH. :t_up:


AIR has a better 'float' than OCA.*

*subtle

The only ‘float’ OCA has is akin to my turd after a couple of pints of Guinness.

[Daytr]

Yeah Daytr, it's standard practice for property developers to recieve cash upon sale of a unit and retain ownership of that unit. :confused:

That ownership is only worth the DMF i.e the 30% plus the margin between buying back and reselling, less any refit costs.

And as I discussed with Sailorboy, that is the float, not the 100% of what they sell a unit for on day one.

[Daytr]

Not really, that's the standard property developer model. OCA don't really have to "raise capital' before they develop, that's only done when they want to accelerate development. There is plenty of capital available at no interest to develop their properties.

Look, people buy an ORA, OCA gets the whole amount including DMF, they can use that however they want to. When the resident departs, OCA pay back to the resident estate ORA-30%, when the ORA is re-sold. That 30% is never repaid while in meantime 100% of it is available for leveraging development.

Who cares wether it's called a 'float' or not, it is a very successful business model and about 95% of clients are satisfied with it. It's very similar across the whole RV sector. There's about 480 'retirement villages' in NZ and a large proportion of them sell ORA's for their independent living 'units'. It's just that not all of them are as focused on growth by development as the listed RV's are.

Really, the only question on my mind is whether OCA can convert all of their backlog of property into ORA's (sales), and start rewarding their shareholders.

It's not about SailerRob, though credit to him for expanding our minds as to strength and the sustainability of the business model through leverage of the large and ever growing pile of cash that will never be repaid, never incurs interest, is the foundation of growth. Time to move on.

The capital I refer to is the equity initially raised to float the company i.e what is owed to shareholders. They built the first lots, sold them & reinvest that capital & debt again, to develop more & so on.

That 30% is the DMF and this is the key to the ever expanding value or 'float', that plus any margin made on sales & resales.
Less any refit costs on the resales of course.

[mistaTea]

The capital I refer to is the equity initially raised to float the company i.e what is owed to shareholders. They built the first lots, sold them & reinvest that capital & debt again, to develop more & so on.

That 30% is the DMF and this is the key to the ever expanding value or 'float', that plus any margin made on sales & resales.
Less any refit costs on the resales of course.

Ever expanding is a big call, as construction costs have exploded while property prices have taken a hit as we have seen. Perhaps over the long run that figure will increase, but there are a lot of variables at play. And we should stop bandying around the term float, because I think it is incorrect and misleading.

Refit costs is another issue. Do RV operators fit the whole bill for this or do they charge departing residents for some of it?

Anyway, unlike the insurance industry (which actually does produce float, and can reinvest that money into anything they want) RV operators can only really invest their earnings (which is all the DMF is) from reselling units to build more units and hope the ponzi scheme can continue forever. In the meantime, using their earnings (plus a lot of debt) to build more units is expensive, takes a lot of time, is subject to all sorts of regulation, and depreciates.

The only companies that do produce float - insurers - have none of that. Another key difference.

But anyway, I will probably just get more -ve rep for not agreeing that OCA has float and is the most undervalued and awesome company on the NZX!

[winner69]

AIRflost is over $2 billion

And they get to keep a fair chunk of that when they cancel flights

So as Snowie says AIR has a better float than OCA ….subtle

[Valuegrowth]

AIRflost is over $2 billion

And they get to keep a fair chunk of that when they cancel flights

So as Snowie says AIR has a better float than OCA ….subtle AIR will go up once cost of doing business come down.