OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

^^ surely only a problem if no-one wants to move in?

a worse situation for shareholders (although somewhat unlikely) is all residents living to 150 years old.

just highlighting one potential risk of many around this float thing so many mention. its not risk free as many allude too and diffently is not comparable to an insurance float.

mean you got to hand it to sailor rob and his side kick tattoo ( i mean baa baa ) he spins a good story around float but not intirely accurate.

[Mrbuyit]

For sure there is a liability associated, the last 2 reporting periods show roughly 100m in and 40m out, so there would have to be a fairly fundamental shift in not only the volume of outgoing ORA vs new ORA..

Assuming zero capital gain OCA would have to be incoming ORA at <70% occupancy which would paint a pretty grim picture, where SR's free churn no-longer has the capacity to fund itself.. this could happen i guess under certain circumstances..

I think the bigger risk is unsold / slow to sell stock rather than a mass exodus (unless maybe a strong dose of covid-24 hits our shores)?

[bull....]

For sure there is a liability associated, the last 2 reporting periods show roughly 100m in and 40m out, so there would have to be a fairly fundamental shift in not only the volume of outgoing ORA vs new ORA..

Assuming zero capital gain OCA would have to be incoming ORA at <70% occupancy which would paint a pretty grim picture, where SR's free churn no-longer has the capacity to fund itself.. this could happen i guess under certain circumstances..

I think the bigger risk is unsold / slow to sell stock rather than a mass exodus (unless maybe a strong dose of covid-24 hits our shores)?

yep your highlighting the covid risk of mass exodus and no buyers. why exactly they could have gone bust during covid ( very lucky ).
yes i agree risk is slow sales and liquidity.

[aquaman]

Interesting that on radio today ,noon report, it was mentioned that fund mangers likely selling OCA in anticipation that OCA "may" be removed from index due to re-balancing of index with other stocks coming in. Info re implications
"Being added to an index can boost a stock's price and liquidity because of increased demand, which is often seen as a positive development. Conversely, being removed from an index can lead to a price decline and be perceived negatively. However, these effects are generally short-term and often balance out over time

[aquaman]

An interesting corollary is that a stock can be dropped from an index, not because it's been underperforming, but because the index allows only a set number of stocks and room needs to be made for a new one. This can represent a buying opportunity when a stock whose fundamentals remain strong on the initial selling after being dropped from the index

[ValueNZ]

Interesting that on radio today ,noon report, it was mentioned that fund mangers likely selling OCA in anticipation that OCA "may" be removed from index due to re-balancing of index with other stocks coming in. Info re implications
"Being added to an index can boost a stock's price and liquidity because of increased demand, which is often seen as a positive development. Conversely, being removed from an index can lead to a price decline and be perceived negatively. However, these effects are generally short-term and often balance out over time
Best news I've heard all week.

[mistaTea]

Best news I've heard all week.

Yes. I believe Sailor Bob was also only every going to be truly happy if OCA went to zero. The lower the better anyway :t_up:

[ValueNZ]

Yes. I believe Sailor Bob was also only every going to be truly happy if OCA went to zero. The lower the better anyway :t_up:
I too want the company to be given to me for free!

[Daytr]

just highlighting one potential risk of many around this float thing so many mention. its not risk free as many allude too and diffently is not comparable to an insurance float.

mean you got to hand it to sailor rob and his side kick tattoo ( i mean baa baa ) he spins a good story around float but not intirely accurate.

I think a float for OCA WILL be comparable to the insurance industry.
It's not yet as the DMF only starts to build over the life cycle I.e on average 7 year turnover of stock.
How many units did OCA have 7 years ago?
How many do they have now?

[winner69]

Radius Healthcare share price up today ….their float is pretty titchy

[Balance]

Yes. I believe Sailor Bob was also only every going to be truly happy if OCA went to zero. The lower the better anyway :t_up:

Zero?

Means OCA is bankrupt.

Strange logic.

[mistaTea]

Zero?

Means OCA is bankrupt.

Strange logic.

Yes, that was the joke. :D

[bull....]

I think a float for OCA WILL be comparable to the insurance industry.
It's not yet as the DMF only starts to build over the life cycle I.e on average 7 year turnover of stock.
How many units did OCA have 7 years ago?
How many do they have now?

i see a float from insurance as never being returned compared to this float at oca having to be returned mostly.

[Balance]

Yes, that was the joke. :D

Logic of a newt which climbed out of the primordial soup? :scared:

[Ferg]

The question then becomes what happens to the rest of the ORA money, the remaining 70% when it is handed over to OCA? Can OCA really do what they like with that? My thinking is no they can't, because -as part of the OCA business model- that money, or perhaps more correctly that money plus any complementary bank borrowing that has been raised against it - has been ear marked, and you could argue 'already spent', in developing new village assets.


There are two different treatments of ORAs. New ORAs must be repaid onto the development facility. That can be re-drawn to fund other new developments. Resale ORAs AFAIK do not have to be repaid against the development facility and are part of the general pot of funds. So given ORA receipts can be used to repay debt, build new assets, pay expenses, pay dividends or be held in the bank, OCA can pretty much do what it likes with the ORAs received given there are no other options, subject of course to the new ORA limitation I noted.

[Maverick]

So we now know the issue….NZ herald tonight.
The Warehouse and Oceania Healthcare are falling out of the MSCI Small Caps Index at the end of the month and they were down 9c or 6.21 per cent to $1.36 and 2c or 2.94 per cent to 66c respectively. Oceania last traded at that level on March 30, 2020.

So I guess we just have to endure this selling 2 more weeks…if there is a positive in all of this archaic rebalancing dance, is that it was pleasing to see someone willing to buy up to 900,000 shares at 66c on market close ( left over unfilled orders were withdrawn shortly after closing. ).
That tells me there are folk out there with access to instant big money to soak up these dumped shares at these levels. So maybe , just maybe, it might not get too much worse untill recovery early next month.

I’ve invested very successfully for 3 decades now and have never known such divergence between an unloved company and its share price.

[ronaldson]

Whitianga Care Centre and Village is a smallish but relatively modern facility. According to Oceania it offers 53 care beds ( Rest Home, Hospital, Respite and Palliative/End of Life ) and 10 village units ( 2 bedroom villas ).

You can easily appreciate an influenza outbreak triggering a number of deaths in that context. This will be a facility much valued by the local community for obvious reasons. A number of OCA facilities were/are the subject of insurance claims after Gabrielle/Auckland floods so OCA has had something of a run of bad luck recently.

It isn't clear to me if this has been/is one of OCA's "held for sale" assets. Probably not given it is newish and has the associated units.

It is a reminder that pandemic type risks to this sector have been underestimated/disregarded, at least until the Covid experience.

[bull....]

Whitianga Care Centre and Village is a smallish but relatively modern facility. According to Oceania it offers 53 care beds ( Rest Home, Hospital, Respite and Palliative/End of Life ) and 10 village units ( 2 bedroom villas ).

You can easily appreciate an influenza outbreak triggering a number of deaths in that context. This will be a facility much valued by the local community for obvious reasons. A number of OCA facilities were/are the subject of insurance claims after Gabrielle/Auckland floods so OCA has had something of a run of bad luck recently.

It isn't clear to me if this has been/is one of OCA's "held for sale" assets. Probably not given it is newish and has the associated units.

It is a reminder that pandemic type risks to this sector have been underestimated/disregarded, at least until the Covid experience.

Whitianga rest home: Influenza outbreak, six dead


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/whitianga-rest-home-influenza-outbreak-six-dead/HJUC2B4US5DNTJEOHGJTLUWH6I/

OCA facilty

[Habits]

Whitianga rest home: Influenza outbreak, six dead


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/whitianga-rest-home-influenza-outbreak-six-dead/HJUC2B4US5DNTJEOHGJTLUWH6I/

OCA facilty

Whats going on, 6 out of 60 ish residents and patients, I wouldn't want my father to be in there at that rate. They need a vaccine but after the last 3 years history with jabcinda everyone got vaccine-phobia

[Lego_Man]

Whitianga rest home: Influenza outbreak, six dead


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/whitianga-rest-home-influenza-outbreak-six-dead/HJUC2B4US5DNTJEOHGJTLUWH6I/

OCA facilty

Increased turnover...

[bull....]

Increased turnover...

well yes , but the PR not good. pr can effect valuation of a village.

[mike2020]

Whats going on, 6 out of 60 ish residents and patients, I wouldn't want my father to be in there at that rate. They need a vaccine but after the last 3 years history with jabcinda everyone got vaccine-phobia


I knew of a smaller rest home loosing nearly a third in a fortnight with covid. Beds were filled in no time as its hospital level care.

[Blue Skies]

Whats going on, 6 out of 60 ish residents and patients, I wouldn't want my father to be in there at that rate. They need a vaccine but after the last 3 years history with jabcinda everyone got vaccine-phobia


Don't know what you mean by that, but we do have Flu vaccines which are regularly updated to match whichever strains are prevalent at the time.
Vaccines rely on a good immune system to react to the vaccine & teach the body to produce anti-bodies to give us complete or partial protection from particular pathogens.

Elderly people usually have weakened immune systems or are immunocompromised so their immune systems may only respond weakly to the vaccine meaning they don't work as well & give them the same high level of protection. Like all vulnerable groups, essential they have them though to provide a degree of protection.
Flu kills average of 700 people each year in NZ compared to road deaths of 340 in 2023.

[winner69]

Don't know what you mean by that, but we do have Flu vaccines which are regularly updated to match whichever strains are prevalent at the time.
Vaccines rely on a good immune system to react to the vaccine & teach the body to produce anti-bodies to give us complete or partial protection from particular pathogens.

Elderly people usually have weakened immune systems or are immunocompromised so their immune systems may only respond weakly to the vaccine meaning they don't work as well & give them the same high level of protection. Like all vulnerable groups, essential they have them though to provide a degree of protection.
Flu kills average of 700 people each year in NZ compared to road deaths of 340 in 2023.

So on average about 2 deaths a day across the country

So 6 deaths in 12 days in one location is a very rare event …hmmmm

[Daytr]

i see a float from insurance as never being returned compared to this float at oca having to be returned mostly.

The difference between SailorBoy & I are numerous & in this case we differed as well.
I have always seen the float as approximately 15% of the original sale value i.e retained DMF, plus any profit on the resale.
Targeted profit on resales is 20%.

This should generate around $60M per year, growing to around $12M per year compounding as units are sold and more resales come on stream.

The float that SailorBoy referred to only eventuates once they stop borrowing for development. I.e OCA saves the interest costs, then if they stop all development the float will grow, but that's a much longer term proposition.

[winner69]

REINZ data January

The total number of properties sold across New Zealand in January 2024 4.9% higher than pcp ……so volumes growing although remain at very low levels

But Auckland however lowest sales count month ever recorded (except covid months)

Maybe Brent will have to say sluggish property market holding back sales

Median price down a tad

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Web/Web/News/News-Articles/Market-updates/REINZ_January_data_Golden_weather_sees_confidence_ lift.aspx?name=REINZ_January_data_Golden_weather_s ees_confidence_lift

[Lego_Man]

REINZ data January

The total number of properties sold across New Zealand in January 2024 4.9% higher than pcp ……so volumes growing although remain at very low levels

But Auckland however lowest sales count month ever recorded (except covid months)

Maybe Brent will have to say sluggish property market holding back sales

Median price down a tad

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Web/Web/News/News-Articles/Market-updates/REINZ_January_data_Golden_weather_sees_confidence_ lift.aspx?name=REINZ_January_data_Golden_weather_s ees_confidence_lift

Bid-ask spread too wide. Sellers will have to capitulate soon as rates stay high.

[winner69]

Bid-ask spread too wide. Sellers will have to capitulate soon as rates stay high.

If oldies selling to move into a village will they be able afford what they want …or will village unit prices fall as well

[winner69]

Sales, sales and even more sales is the cry from Oceania shareholders

But Brent probably would like to see the red line heading up faster …going up but not really conducive for booming sales

Annual house sales volumes chart updated

[Rawz]

Best news I've heard all week.

Would have been better if you bought your 70% position after the big drop.

Sailor got you well and truly didn’t he

[ValueNZ]

Would have been better if you bought your 70% position after the big drop.

Sailor got you well and truly didn’t he
Buying dollars for 32 cents is an incredible deal regardless if the following year you can buy them for 28 cents.

Lets hope OCA is even cheaper next year.

[Valuegrowth]

I am thinking about becoming defensive. I'm looking forward to add more and more food stocks and also to buy stocks in other areas like health care and commodities. In good time and bad time people cannot live without food, health care and basic commodities. Boring is beautiful.

[Bjauck]

If oldies selling to move into a village will they be able afford what they want …or will village unit prices fall as well Are ORA prices in lock step with house prices? How much did the prices charged for OCA ORAs increase during the post Covid surge in house prices? Between June 2020 and Jan 2022 the NZ house price index soared by 40%.

[mistaTea]

Another gem from Munger we can all pause and reflect on.

Extremely counterproductive is man’s tendency to bet, time after time, in games of skill, like golf or poker, against people who are obviously much better players. Excessive self-regard tendency diminishes the foolish bettor’s accuracy in appraising his relative degree of talent.
—Charlie Munger

[winner69]

Are ORA prices in lock step with house prices? How much did the prices charged for OCA ORAs increase during the post Covid surge in house prices? Between June 2020 and Jan 2022 the NZ house price index soared by 40%.

They (and analysts) keep on about having a ‘buffer’ v house prices …so no worries, all hunky dory

[Balance]

They (and analysts) keep on about having a ‘buffer’ v house prices …so no worries, all hunky dory

Hunky dory indeed!

Property prices go up, ORAs go up more.

Property prices go down, ORAs do not go down much if at all.

Makes sense!

Same sense as OCA sp going to zero and whole company can be obtained for nothing!

[winner69]

Hunky dory indeed!

Property prices go up, ORAs go up more.

Property prices go down, ORAs do not go down much if at all.

Makes sense!

Same sense as OCA sp going to zero and whole company can be obtained for nothing!

And the float gets bigger and bigger

[mistaTea]

Hunky dory indeed!

Property prices go up, ORAs go up more.

Property prices go down, ORAs do not go down much if at all.

Makes sense!

Same sense as OCA sp going to zero and whole company can be obtained for nothing!

Oh yes, if Bob and some of the others had it their way the SP would go into the negatives! That's where the real money is made :D

[ValueNZ]

mistaTea I want to thank you, it's "investors" like you that allow investors like us (Maverick, SR, Baabaa, Ferg, ect) to earn high equity returns in the long run. So keep doing what you're doing, keep buying high and capitulating at the bottom (point in case SkyTV), and importantly keep spreading your EMH BS around. Makes for greater market inefficiencies.

Thank you :t_up:

[mistaTea]

mistaTea I want to thank you, it's "investors" like you that allow investors like us (Maverick, SR, Baabaa, Ferg, ect) to earn high equity returns in the long run. So keep doing what you're doing, keep buying high and capitulating at the bottom (point in case SkyTV), and importantly keep spreading your EMH BS around. Makes for greater market inefficiencies.

Thank you :t_up:

That is a really lovely note Value, thank you. I live to serve.

[ValueNZ]

Another gem from Munger we can all pause and reflect on.

Extremely counterproductive is man’s tendency to bet, time after time, in games of skill, like golf or poker, against people who are obviously much better players. Excessive self-regard tendency diminishes the foolish bettor’s accuracy in appraising his relative degree of talent.
—Charlie Munger
Are these much better players the same fund managers holding FBU?

[winner69]

Oceania chant is ‘sales, sales and more sales’

Bloody heck, Ryman just came out with a profit downgrade saying ‘ Lower volumes on new sales of occupation right agreements (ORAs)’ a problem. Thought they would have 273 new sales in 2nd half and only going to do about 218

Wonder how Oceania going

[Balance]

Oceania chant is ‘sales, sales and more sales’

Bloody heck, Ryman just came out with a profit downgrade saying ‘ Lower volumes on new sales of occupation right agreements (ORAs)’ a problem. Thought they would have 273 new sales in 2nd half and only going to do about 218

Wonder how Oceania going

And lower margins on lower sales - not a good combination for Ryman.

Cash flow implications?

[winner69]

And lower margins on lower sales - not a good combination for Ryman.

Cash flow implications?

Funny that recently Ryman harped on about cash flow reporting being more important than Underlying Profit ….and this announcement no mention of cash flow ….all about Underlying Profit

[Lego_Man]

Highly concerning

[bull....]

yep and bull was saying the supervisor might have been in contact with OCA

cash crunch :scared:

[winner69]

Summerset report next Monday

Wonder if they’ll say anything about recent sales volumes

[Bjauck]

Funny that recently Ryman harped on about cash flow reporting being more important than Underlying Profit ….and this announcement no mention of cash flow ….all about Underlying ProfitIf the mullet doesn’t cut the mustard, you switch to a buzz cut!

[Balance]

Broker I talked to last week said their firm estimates around 30m OCA shares to be exited on Feb 29th.

Guess the sp is not going to go anywhere until then but down, especially with Ryman's downbeat guidance this morning.

[RTM]

Broker I talked to last week said their firm estimates around 30m OCA shares to be exited on Feb 29th.

Guess the sp is not going to go anywhere until then but down, especially with Ryman's downbeat guidance this morning.

SailorBoy will be happy.

[Balance]

SailorBoy will be happy.

Yes, especially when the sp drops to zero?

Logic of a newt emerging from the primordial soup.

[X-men]

Lol....come guys...stop downramping this dog...

U all know that OCA and Arvida are slightly different with RYM?

OCA and ARV are still getting care fees...not just selling units....

[Balance]

Lol....come guys...stop downramping this dog...

U all know that OCA and Arvida are slightly different with RYM?

OCA and ARV are still getting care fees...not just selling units....

Care fees where they are losing money?

[Maverick]

RYMs update today is bloody unhelpful for OCAs SP amongst the unloading of those index funds shares. I'm starting to wonder if God/Allah, Buddha or whoever , is having a laugh with OCA with new inventive ways of kneecapping this company.

Let's unpack the RYM result ( on this OCA thread as I`m only concerned for its effect on OCA SP during this heavy selling time)

Ok here's the facts…
RYM “NEW sales” are down on expectations and also resale margins are lower.

1.They also expand the NEW sales are sluggish in the 4 big new deliveries where the community facilities are not finished yet.
2. Resale margins are down due the mix of deliveries.
3. Serviced units are not selling as fast.

I'm quite stunned how the RYM folk didn`t get how these things actually work in real life. These lessons should now be well known after observing OCAs effort to build multi level complexes.

Check out the photos, pg 32-35 on the November RYM HY1-2024 report
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/422575/408480.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/422575/408480.pdf)

Who is seriously going to line up and buy in these construction sites? Community facilities aren't done and you`ve got acres of dirt and construction around you ...It should be no surprise “NEW sales” in these half opened complexes are slow…seriously what were they expecting?
Note they say “REsales” are up 7%.
All RV reports elsewhere are saying strong demand. Then consider SUM`s excellent new and re-sales report recently.

This is a RYM specific problem, just like their cash flow, all because they forayed into building apartments ( blindfolded it now seems) .

Fortunately OCA is on the rewarding exit part of this long tunnel. RYM is only 30% of the way through.

Next…lower "resale margins" due to resale product mix. It is well known when you start rapidly churning serviced apartments ( or care suites) then the resale margins reduce . You just don't get time for that higher capital gain margin when the thing is resold after 3 years as opposed to a villa churning every 8.

Again ..what were RYM hoping for? This is normal!

And point 3 above . serviced apartments not selling fast. THEY ARE NEEDS BASED. You deliver 50 to 100 of them all at once they are going to take 2-3 years to fill. We all know that RYM, this isn't rocket science.

Now a bit of good news,
They also tell us their empty stock is the same level as last November…that's good news.. Empty stock is not growing which indicates a steady market.

So to conclude this is a specific RYM problem with their expectations ( and what appears as naivety) of how apartments actually work.

Brent or Kathryn…If you ever read this website would you please consider an update for us long suffering shareholders. Why don't throw us a bone amongst all this… give us an update on sales , margins or whatever ….your consideration would be incredibly welcome. It's been too tough for too long now.

[Balance]

Broker I talked to last week said their firm estimates around 30m OCA shares to be exited on Feb 29th.

Guess the sp is not going to go anywhere until then but down, especially with Ryman's downbeat guidance this morning.

Bid side looking decidedly weak. Retail punters have had enough punishment?

60c by the end of this week?

[Leemsip]

Could happen today (60c). Hitting 63c now.

How do the 30m shares change hands as fundies exit (as per Balance prev).... I dont understand how this will happen. Anyone? Buyers cant absorb this level of selling.

[Muse]

Could happen today (60c). Hitting 63c now.

How do the 30m shares change hands as fundies exit (as per Balance prev).... I dont understand how this will happen. Anyone? Buyers cant absorb this level of selling.

Majority probably change hands in the final closing matches which’ll function as a bit of a book build for the sell down

[Balance]

Majority probably change hands in the final closing matches which’ll function as a bit of a book build for the sell down

Used to be a free for all but these days, funds selling down tend to do the index changes via just one or two brokers to provide for an ‘orderly’ sell down.

[bull....]

covid lows coming ? whats there convenants ?

[winner69]

covid lows coming ? whats there convenants ?

Reports say convenants are secret squirrel stuff between company banks ….banks say OCA can’t disclose some

No worries though as OCA said last report they weren’t in breach of any

[bull....]

Reports say conventante are secret squirrel stuff between company banks ….banks say OCA can’t disclose some

No worries though as OCA said last report they weren’t in breach of any

only to the supervisor if they demand it :scared:

[bull....]

arv down 4%
oca 7%
rym 10%
sum 2%

cash crunch coming

[Curly]

At what share price does OCA become a target for a take over.

[winner69]

Brent or Kathryn…If you ever read this website would you please consider an update for us long suffering shareholders. Why don't throw us a bone amongst all this… give us an update on sales , margins or whatever ….your consideration would be incredibly welcome. It's been too tough for too long now.

Doubt that’ll happen but you never know a miracle might happen

End of May some time away eh

[Muse]

At what share price does OCA become a target for a take over.

I’d be surprised if there weren’t a few groups out there asking themselves the question, even if just half heartedly. Likewise I’d imagine they would be wary of how the Board would react given Arivda’s outright rejection of an indicative bid that carried a chunky premium last year. I think the care component a bit of a hurdle as well - relative to Arvida at least.

[Balance]

Could happen today (60c). Hitting 63c now.

How do the 30m shares change hands as fundies exit (as per Balance prev).... I dont understand how this will happen. Anyone? Buyers cant absorb this level of selling.

Looking grim indeed.

Ryman’s downgrade could not have come at a worse time with the index selldown next week.

No bidders piling up at 60c unlike the last two trigger points of 65c and 70c.

Sp could very well has a 5 in front of it when the MSCI selldown hits.

Ouch!

Retail punters have run out of firepower?

[Snoopy]

At what share price does OCA become a target for a take over.


On the day that both Mav and Sailor Boy sell out. The day of 'ultimate capitulation'!

SNOOPY

[Leemsip]

62c now. The centre cannot hold!
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.

[winner69]

On the day that both Mav and Sailor Boy sell out. The day of 'ultimate capitulation'!

SNOOPY

….but value will still be holding

[Snoopy]

….but value will still be holding

Exactly.... Which is why the takeover offer will turn up on that day.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Mav …good reasons given why it’s. RYM problem and shouldn’t affect OCA

RYM split of new sales by half year interesting

F23 H1 144 and H2 318
F24. H1 216 and H2 218

So huge decrease in H224 v prior 2 reporting periods.

Maybe their expectations were just too optimistic ……and that your reasons have substance

Be interesting what Summerset say next Monday ….and Arvida might put out another ‘newsletter’

[winner69]

At 63 cents trading at 55% discount to NTA

[winner69]

Exactly.... Which is why the takeover offer will turn up on that day.

SNOOPY

But our Liz wouldn’t want to crystallise her paper loss so would get the Board to reject it ……..as opportunistic and doesn’t reflect the real value of the company

[Ggcc]

Really feel for shareholders. The board seem to act like possums staring at headlights. If anyone ever saw South Park. This is the perfect time for Officer Barbrady scene. “Nothing going on here!!!”

[Balance]

Better hope OCA does not do a CR anytime soon!

Could see a hikoi by shareholders to unseat the directors.

[Snoopy]

Really feel for shareholders. The board seem to act like possums staring at headlights. If anyone ever saw South Park. This is the perfect time for Officer Barbrady scene. “Nothing going on here!!!”


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LW6RWSiR88s

SNOOPY

[alokdhir]

When SUM reported good stuff ...OCA hardly moved up but when RYM reported bad stuff then it follows RYM down big time

This behaviour of reacting much more to bad news then sector good news may be conveying something much darker but then it cant keep going down ...sometime it has to turn around like ATM did ...hope keeps world happy place

[Antipodean]

The paucity of updates from OCA, means sentiment will always trend negative. Even is nothing underlying is at issue.

The reality is no one really knows how OCA is tracking since last update. In this case, the market is treating no news as bad news.

[Ggcc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LW6RWSiR88s

SNOOPY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NNOrp_83RU

This seems to be better than that one.

[Bjauck]

Looking grim indeed.

Ryman’s downgrade could not have come at a worse time with the index selldown next week.

No bidders piling up at 60c unlike the last two trigger points of 65c and 70c.

Sp could very well has a 5 in front of it when the MSCI selldown hits.

Ouch!

Retail punters have run out of firepower? Many Retail shareholders have such expensive houses and expensive investor housing to have not much left over for investment in a company investing in yet more NZ real estate in an uncertain market.

Disc: I did make a small switch from SUM into OCA today.

[Rawz]

RYMs update today is bloody unhelpful for OCAs SP amongst the unloading of those index funds shares. I'm starting to wonder if God/Allah, Buddha or whoever , is having a laugh with OCA with new inventive ways of kneecapping this company.

Let's unpack the RYM result ( on this OCA thread as I`m only concerned for its effect on OCA SP during this heavy selling time)

Ok here's the facts…
RYM “NEW sales” are down on expectations and also resale margins are lower.

1.They also expand the NEW sales are sluggish in the 4 big new deliveries where the community facilities are not finished yet.
2. Resale margins are down due the mix of deliveries.
3. Serviced units are not selling as fast.

I'm quite stunned how the RYM folk didn`t get how these things actually work in real life. These lessons should now be well known after observing OCAs effort to build multi level complexes.

Check out the photos, pg 32-35 on the November RYM HY1-2024 report
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/422575/408480.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/422575/408480.pdf)

Who is seriously going to line up and buy in these construction sites? Community facilities aren't done and you`ve got acres of dirt and construction around you ...It should be no surprise “NEW sales” in these half opened complexes are slow…seriously what were they expecting?
Note they say “REsales” are up 7%.
All RV reports elsewhere are saying strong demand. Then consider SUM`s excellent new and re-sales report recently.

This is a RYM specific problem, just like their cash flow, all because they forayed into building apartments ( blindfolded it now seems) .

Fortunately OCA is on the rewarding exit part of this long tunnel. RYM is only 30% of the way through.

Next…lower "resale margins" due to resale product mix. It is well known when you start rapidly churning serviced apartments ( or care suites) then the resale margins reduce . You just don't get time for that higher capital gain margin when the thing is resold after 3 years as opposed to a villa churning every 8.

Again ..what were RYM hoping for? This is normal!

And point 3 above . serviced apartments not selling fast. THEY ARE NEEDS BASED. You deliver 50 to 100 of them all at once they are going to take 2-3 years to fill. We all know that RYM, this isn't rocket science.

Now a bit of good news,
They also tell us their empty stock is the same level as last November…that's good news.. Empty stock is not growing which indicates a steady market.

So to conclude this is a specific RYM problem with their expectations ( and what appears as naivety) of how apartments actually work.

Brent or Kathryn…If you ever read this website would you please consider an update for us long suffering shareholders. Why don't throw us a bone amongst all this… give us an update on sales , margins or whatever ….your consideration would be incredibly welcome. It's been too tough for too long now.

Hey Mav, when i read this post yesterday I thought you may have had confirmation bias or something. Or maybe you were seeing the RV world with rose tinted glasses.

But then i read the Forbar update on the RYM thread this morning (post by GWD) and it says the same as you. RYM must have been really naive huh. Looks like yes you still know your stuff :cool:


Forbar:.....The relative weakness in new sales (still expected to be up ~+50% from the very weak first half, but down ~-10% versus 2H23) is not that surprising, in particular as it appears to be concentrated in a few villages where the main building is yet to be completed. It is, however, disappointing that it appears to have caught RYM off guard.....

[Daytr]

Hey Mav, if you are confident in the OCA story as you have made out, then these sorts of share price oscillations shouldn't bother you, in fact as SailorBoy & ValueNZ have said, surely these selloffs offer opportunity to buy more.

[X-men]

Any holders will be in despair too....the last 2 years SP has been depleted slowly

No update from the management and constant downramping from all traders here....

I would cut loss and take the money to the mermaid

[Greekwatchdog]

Mav, if you are confident in the OCA story as you have made out, then these sorts of share price oscillations shouldn't bother you, in fact as SailorBoy & ValueNZ have said, surely these selloffs offer opportunity to buy more.


I have been buying, then I am a long term holder so the day to day stuff I couldn't care less about, well thats until its cheap and will continue to accumulate.

This is my biggest position and comfortable with it, thou would prefer Board and Brent to engage with shareholders better.

[Daytr]

I have been buying, then I am a long term holder so the day to day stuff I couldn't care less about, well thats until its cheap and will continue to accumulate.

This is my biggest position and comfortable with it, thou would prefer Board and Brent to engage with shareholders better.

I don't have the BS fear that others have of imminent collapse etc. The metrics just aren't there for that outcome.
The market is the market and at $1.50 the valuation was wrong and imo its now wrong again at 63c.

I wouldn't mind seeing it lower though still has I might be tempted to free up some cash.

[Greekwatchdog]

I don't have the BS fear that others have of imminent collapse etc. The metrics just aren't there for that outcome.
The market is the market and at $1.50 the valuation was wrong and imo its now wrong again at 63c.

I wouldn't mind seeing it lower though still has I might be tempted to free up some cash.

Bloody hard trying to pick the bottom of these things

[ValueNZ]

Just got my buy order filled at 62c.

Heres a fun fact. There were only ten days during the covid crash where you could pick up OCA shares for 62c or less. And consider that OCA as a business has grown in the last four years, aka it's intrinsic value has risen. So OCA's discount to intrinsic value really hasn't ever been cheaper than it is today, except for the couple of days you could pick up OCA in the high 30c and 40c range.

[ValueNZ]

Looking grim indeed.

Ryman’s downgrade could not have come at a worse time with the index selldown next week.

No bidders piling up at 60c unlike the last two trigger points of 65c and 70c.

Sp could very well has a 5 in front of it when the MSCI selldown hits.

Ouch!

Retail punters have run out of firepower?
Hopefully!

[ValueNZ]

RYMs update today is bloody unhelpful for OCAs SP amongst the unloading of those index funds shares. I'm starting to wonder if God/Allah, Buddha or whoever , is having a laugh with OCA with new inventive ways of kneecapping this company.

Let's unpack the RYM result ( on this OCA thread as I`m only concerned for its effect on OCA SP during this heavy selling time)

Ok here's the facts…
RYM “NEW sales” are down on expectations and also resale margins are lower.

1.They also expand the NEW sales are sluggish in the 4 big new deliveries where the community facilities are not finished yet.
2. Resale margins are down due the mix of deliveries.
3. Serviced units are not selling as fast.

I'm quite stunned how the RYM folk didn`t get how these things actually work in real life. These lessons should now be well known after observing OCAs effort to build multi level complexes.

Check out the photos, pg 32-35 on the November RYM HY1-2024 report
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/422575/408480.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/422575/408480.pdf)

Who is seriously going to line up and buy in these construction sites? Community facilities aren't done and you`ve got acres of dirt and construction around you ...It should be no surprise “NEW sales” in these half opened complexes are slow…seriously what were they expecting?
Note they say “REsales” are up 7%.
All RV reports elsewhere are saying strong demand. Then consider SUM`s excellent new and re-sales report recently.

This is a RYM specific problem, just like their cash flow, all because they forayed into building apartments ( blindfolded it now seems) .

Fortunately OCA is on the rewarding exit part of this long tunnel. RYM is only 30% of the way through.

Next…lower "resale margins" due to resale product mix. It is well known when you start rapidly churning serviced apartments ( or care suites) then the resale margins reduce . You just don't get time for that higher capital gain margin when the thing is resold after 3 years as opposed to a villa churning every 8.

Again ..what were RYM hoping for? This is normal!

And point 3 above . serviced apartments not selling fast. THEY ARE NEEDS BASED. You deliver 50 to 100 of them all at once they are going to take 2-3 years to fill. We all know that RYM, this isn't rocket science.

Now a bit of good news,
They also tell us their empty stock is the same level as last November…that's good news.. Empty stock is not growing which indicates a steady market.

So to conclude this is a specific RYM problem with their expectations ( and what appears as naivety) of how apartments actually work.

Brent or Kathryn…If you ever read this website would you please consider an update for us long suffering shareholders. Why don't throw us a bone amongst all this… give us an update on sales , margins or whatever ….your consideration would be incredibly welcome. It's been too tough for too long now.
The gist of your post is that OCA as a business remains totally unimpacted whilst the share price continues to be hammered. Remind me again why that's a bad thing?

Why do you need the market to tell you that you're correct in your valuation of OCA? Just continue holding, and averaging down. Better to be able to reinvest earnings at a higher CAGR than not.

As for your call for Brent or Kathryn to give an update, well if it's for the purposes of boosting the share price I'd be incredibly disappointed as that's not the role of management.

[ValueNZ]

Really feel for shareholders. The board seem to act like possums staring at headlights. If anyone ever saw South Park. This is the perfect time for Officer Barbrady scene. “Nothing going on here!!!”
Not the job of the board to care about what is happening to the share-price, except in the case of raising capital or buying back shares.

[bull....]

sub 60c soon :scared: incredible value ... not

[Greekwatchdog]

Not the job of the board to care about what is happening to the share-price, except in the case of raising capital or buying back shares.

True, however than can pass on information with regular Investor updates like the others do. This will again help getting a better understanding of where things are at. Their communications are ****e.

[ValueNZ]

True, however than can pass on information with regular Investor updates like the others do. This will again help getting a better understanding of where things are at. Their communications are ****e.
It's no coincidence that people are wanting an update now after the share price has been hammered. What they want isn't more information to help understand OCA better but for an update to cause a boost to the share price.

[Rawz]

The gist of your post is that OCA as a business remains totally unimpacted whilst the share price continues to be hammered. Remind me again why that's a bad thing?

Why do you need the market to tell you that you're correct in your valuation of OCA? Just continue holding, and averaging down. Better to be able to reinvest earnings at a higher CAGR than not.

As for your call for Brent or Kathryn to give an update, well if it's for the purposes of boosting the share price I'd be incredibly disappointed as that's not the role of management.

Wow Value you have been drinking the kool-aid huh

Do you have unlimited cashflow to keep averaging down? You have said you have 70% of your portfolio in OCA. OCA dont pay dividends so no cashflow coming to help you buy these future earnings at a greater discount.

Hope you have a good paying job that allows you to substantially increase the number of shares you hold. If not then your whole theory around SP going down is bonkers.

What if a cap raise comes along? Need cash to participate in that or you get diluted.

[Greekwatchdog]

It's no coincidence that people are wanting an update now after the share price has been hammered. What they want isn't more information to help understand OCA better but for an update to cause a boost to the share price.

Its called confidence in what management are doing to ensure they earn the dollars. A sagging share price doesn't give confidence to the market (Psychology) and frankly the contempt at last year annual meeting showed how little respect they have.to shareholders with lack of info on sales and answering questions gives a lot of doubt.

[winner69]

“You want an update ….that’s funny. Trust me, I know what I’m doing”

[Balance]

Wow Value you have been drinking the kool-aid huh

Do you have unlimited cashflow to keep averaging down? You have said you have 70% of your portfolio in OCA. OCA dont pay dividends so no cashflow coming to help you buy these future earnings at a greater discount.

Hope you have a good paying job that allows you to substantially increase the number of shares you hold. If not then your whole theory around SP going down is bonkers.

What if a cap raise comes along? Need cash to participate in that or you get diluted.

It’s ok - he embraces the SR’s doctrine that OCA’s sp at zero would be the best thing ever to happen!

Logic of a newt crawling out of the primordial soup.

[ValueNZ]

Wow Value you have been drinking the kool-aid huh

Do you have unlimited cashflow to keep averaging down? You have said you have 70% of your portfolio in OCA. OCA dont pay dividends so no cashflow coming to help you buy these future earnings at a greater discount.

Hope you have a good paying job that allows you to substantially increase the number of shares you hold. If not then your whole theory around SP going down is bonkers.

What if a cap raise comes along? Need cash to participate in that or you get diluted.
Not my theory, it's Buffetts theory.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNeFtyoZoSI

I am a net buyer of stocks, I want them cheaper. I bought 5k shares just this lunchtime.

[ValueNZ]

It’s ok - he embraces the SR’s doctrine that OCA’s sp at zero would be the best thing ever to happen!

Logic of a newt crawling out of the primordial soup.
Holding OCA as a business constant, I would love to be given the company for free!

[Balance]

Its called confidence in what management are doing to ensure they earn the dollars. A sagging share price doesn't give confidence to the market (Psychology) and frankly the contempt at last year annual meeting showed how little respect they have.to shareholders with lack of info on sales and answering questions gives a lot of doubt.

The directors and management were appointed by Macquarie to maximise Macquarie’s exit price and valuation. That’s where their loyalty lies - current shareholders are but an inconvenience to be tolerated now that they have their money.

[Rawz]

Not my theory, it's Buffetts theory.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNeFtyoZoSI

I am a net buyer of stocks, I want them cheaper. I bought 5k shares just this lunchtime.

Yes but Value what you are forgetting is Buffett has about $2b in cash come across his desk EVERY WEEK to take advantage of lower prices. Of course it works for him the insurance premiums need to be placed somewhere.

SailorBoy has you so jacked up on the theory of it all that you cant think through it properly.

[Balance]

Holding OCA as a business constant, I would love to be given the company for free!

Logic of a newt crawling out of the primordial soup indeed!

[ValueNZ]

The directors and management were appointed by Macquarie to maximise Macquarie’s exit price and valuation. That’s where their loyalty lies - current shareholders are but an inconvenience to be tolerated now that they have their money.
The directors are shareholders.
14958

[ValueNZ]

Yes but Value what you are forgetting is Buffett has about $2b in cash come across his desk EVERY WEEK to take advantage of lower prices. Of course it works for him the insurance premiums need to be placed somewhere.

SailorBoy has you so jacked up on the theory of it all that you cant think through it properly.
Dude... I am in a way better position to increase my portfolio holdings than Buffett. One year of working and I'll double it.

[Balance]

The directors are shareholders.
14958

Showing what a dim bunch they are!

Tomlinson obtained his initial stake via selling his RV business into OCA. He must be wondering now why he did it!

[winner69]

From a NZ Herald article on Brent’s appointment as CEO n 2021 “Pattison says it has the sector's lowest gearing at around 27 per cent following a $100m capital raising” blah blah and the article noted Oceania is trading around $1.46.

a few years on gearing about 40% and share price 63 cents

good job Brent

[ValueNZ]

Just sell whiner69

[mistaTea]

Dude... I am in a way better position to increase my portfolio holdings than Buffett. One year of working and I'll double it.

Oh yes, I am sure Buffett would trade places in a heart beat!

[Balance]

From a NZ Herald article on Brent’s appointment as CEO n 2021 “Pattison says it has the sector's lowest gearing at around 27 per cent following a $100m capital raising” blah blah and the article noted Oceania is trading around $1.46.

a few years on gearing about 40% and share price 63 cents

good job Brent

Used the money and more (read debt) to buy ever more expensive land & fund ever costlier developments, culminating in St Helier.

Dread to think what the next CR will do then! :scared:

[mistaTea]

Just sell whiner69

No, his decsion to buy, sell or hold is not contingent on w69 being in full agreement with managent or sharing the bullish views of others on this forum.

He can own shares (or not) and be as critical as he likes.

[ValueNZ]

No, his decsion to buy, sell or hold is not contingent on w69 being in full agreement with managent or sharing the bullish views of others on this forum.

He can own shares (or not) and be as critical as he likes.
Because management can control the price set by the market?

Whiner is complaining about the share price falling and blaming management.

Such low level thinking it's unreal.

[bull....]

Dude... I am in a way better position to increase my portfolio holdings than Buffett. One year of working and I'll double it.

buffett recommended most people only ever average down into an index fund

[winner69]

Because management can control the price set by the market?

Whiner is complaining about the share price falling and blaming management.

Such low level thinking it's unreal.

Agree management can’t ‘control’ the share price …but they influence market thinking by doing a few raves

If anything value me ol mate I’m blaming management for not doing that ……and to some extent how the company seems to under perform

Nothing to do with whether I hold share or not

[mistaTea]

From a NZ Herald article on Brent’s appointment as CEO n 2021 “Pattison says it has the sector's lowest gearing at around 27 per cent following a $100m capital raising” blah blah and the article noted Oceania is trading around $1.46.

a few years on gearing about 40% and share price 63 cents

good job Brent

Value - he has formed the view that a big part of the reason for the flagging SP over the last 3 years is because of decisions Management have made.

The sentiment towards OCA is such that when news of a competitor downgrading earnings guidance hits there is a further drop in quoted value for OCA as the worst is assumed. OCA now down ~23% in the last year, and ~7% in the last week.

You see this as a wonderful buying opportunity, in line with your long term buy and hold strategy. All to the good.

If w69 is not quite so bullish on the prospects of the business and has concerns about Management, well that is fine too.

And you don't care what he or anyone else thinks presumably, because your independent analysis has OCA as a screaming BUY right now.

Good luck to all.

[winner69]

That plea of Mavericks the other day -

Brent or Kathryn…If you ever read this website would you please consider an update for us long suffering shareholders. Why don't throw us a bone amongst all this… give us an update on sales , margins or whatever ….your consideration would be incredibly welcome. It's been too tough for too long no


Well, I copied and pasted it into an email to them ……along with some other thoughts

Not expecting a response but at least passed on what some shareholders are asking for

Included the link to this thread as well

[mike2020]

What if they have no good news to share?

[Balance]

What if they have no good news to share?

Probably the truth there! :eek2:

Holy crap - look at Ryman's sp!

OCA next week?

[bull....]

was just reading the anz outlook , i see they predicting 2 more rate hikes and saying this and the fact listings are increasing and days to sell have risen quite a lot point to a potential risk in any house price growth.
:scared:

anyway i reckon directors should offer free shares to people to buy there units

[Ggcc]

Probably the truth there! :eek2:

Holy crap - look at Ryman's sp!

OCA next week?
I still remember Couta had a formula. He even had a wager regarding the share price vs the others. I believe he would have lost that wager.

I do feel though that OCA is a bargain, but I don't have any funds to buy some, nor do I want to sell other shares which are dropping as well to buy these. I do have TRA which is my paper value saving grace right now. It's just going to be a wait and reward strategy for all share holders now. Some will grow slower or faster than others.

[nztx]

How's the witch hunt for the hidden deep unrealised value going in this outfit ? ;)

[Daytr]

was just reading the anz outlook , i see they predicting 2 more rate hikes and saying this and the fact listings are increasing and days to sell have risen quite a lot point to a potential risk in any house price growth.
:scared:

anyway i reckon directors should offer free shares to people to buy there units

ANZ are the only ones making that call. Gets their economist plenty of headlines & even an interview on RNZ this morning.

[Daytr]

Probably the truth there! :eek2:

Holy crap - look at Ryman's sp!

OCA next week?

RYM now lost over 2/3rds of their value since their peak. OCA is doing relatively well I'm comparison. 😉

How much value has the RV sector wiped out of the share market in the last year or so.

[Joshuatree]

I still remember Couta had a formula. He even had a wager regarding the share price vs the others. I believe he would have lost that wager.

I do feel though that OCA is a bargain, but I don't have any funds to buy some, nor do I want to sell other shares which are dropping as well to buy these. I do have TRA which is my paper value saving grace right now. It's just going to be a wait and reward strategy for all share holders now. Some will grow slower or faster than others.

Oceania a bargain? At what point in the future,2,5,10 years,take a punt or better still take a break, have a paddle and read Paul Theroux's,"Paddling The HAPPY Isles of Oceania."

[davflaws]

Oceania a bargain? At what point in the future,2,5,10 years,take a punt or better still take a break, have a paddle and read Paul Theroux's,"Paddling The Isles of Oceania."

Up Sh!t Creek in a Barbed Wire Canoe, and this guy Theroux has taken the paddle!

[bull....]

sub 60 today

[bottomfeeder]

sub 60 today
Some sort of panic has set in, but has it a basis. A CR will be off the cards unless they are really desperate. Who ever is at the helm of this ship is running it aground. Needs some really aggressive management to review all aspects of operations. Yet amongst this turmoil we hear nothing from the board. Lost 15 % in a month or so, yet no announcement. Knock knock, is there anyone home.

[winner69]

Some sort of panic has set in, but has it a basis. A CR will be off the cards unless they are really desperate. Who ever is at the helm of this ship is running it aground. Needs some really aggressive management to review all aspects of operations. Yet amongst this turmoil we hear nothing from the board. Lost 15 % in a month or so, yet no announcement. Knock knock, is there anyone home.

Maybe not ….changed their address a few weeks ago lol

[bull....]

Some sort of panic has set in, but has it a basis. A CR will be off the cards unless they are really desperate. Who ever is at the helm of this ship is running it aground. Needs some really aggressive management to review all aspects of operations. Yet amongst this turmoil we hear nothing from the board. Lost 15 % in a month or so, yet no announcement. Knock knock, is there anyone home.

management or the board are not required to say anything unless its of a material nature i believe. anyway didnt sailor say he believed they like his theory of lower stock price is better

[Balance]

management or the board are not required to say anything unless its of a material nature i believe. anyway didnt sailor say he believed they like his theory of lower stock price is better

He would like the sp to go down to zero.

Logic of a newt emerging from the primordial soup.

[ValueNZ]

management or the board are not required to say anything unless its of a material nature i believe. anyway didnt sailor say he believed they like his theory of lower stock price is better

SR is still buying, so am I. The lower the better.

[winner69]

SR is still buying, so am I. The lower the better.

In the email I sent to Oceania re Mavericks plea I did add that you and others wanted them to come out with bad news so share price would collapse more

Maybe they working on that

[Rawz]

SR is still buying, so am I. The lower the better.

Im curious as to your thinking around buying more of OCA when you already hold 70% of your portfolio in the stock?

Like you could buy a stock in an upward good news cycle such as TWR. To steal one of Sailors lines- its free money lol

Sailorboy has 10% of his portfolio in OCA (if i remember correctly) so i can understand him buying more at these prices.

Like what if you are wrong with your assumptions on OCA? It does happen. The balance sheet isnt exactly strong. And i remember you once said you liked strong balance sheets.

[Balance]

SR is still buying, so am I. The lower the better.

https://media.tenor.com/-bWE2E_hsl4AAAAM/laugh-laughing.gif

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/
paywalled

Enjoy the tour of the over-priced and over-valued St Helier.

[winner69]

https://media.tenor.com/-bWE2E_hsl4AAAAM/laugh-laughing.gif

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/
paywalled

Enjoy the tour of the over-priced and over-valued St Helier.

As long as there are greater fools out there who’ll buy them no worries

[bull....]

https://media.tenor.com/-bWE2E_hsl4AAAAM/laugh-laughing.gif

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-first-look-inside-150m-st-heliers-the-helier-retirement-village/MPWYCFVRNBGOHLWQZUGNIX54IM/
paywalled

Enjoy the tour of the over-priced and over-valued St Helier.

sales are slow im guessing

[Habits]

There was a graph shown of OCA becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of SUM over time. That just shrank a bit more (sobbing emoji)

[SHKWAV]

Hi all. First time poster but have been a keen follower of this thread since initial listing. I have the greatest of respect for all posters who undoubtedly are far more intelligent than myself. As a firm believer Oceania will deliver the goods in due course( 100% of my current portfolio). Call me foolish if you must but I am a born risk taker and content with that. I would like to add a couple of points to the conversation. Although I believe in Oceana I have little to no faith in The Market as a valuer. Mr Market is a very fickle creature and a reactive one at that.
My first point is Warren Buffet is quoted as saying “ When the market is fearful be greedy and when the market is greedy be fearful). The Market at the moment is very jittery and fearful and do I believe it is a great time to buy. Whether it is the best time I’m not sure.
My second point is if we study the Summerset thread way back in their first few years it’s almost a carbon copy of the Oceana thread with the same opposing opinions. And yet now it appears to bd the darling of the retirement stocks and trading at $10-$11. Imagine if Oceana gets to that level Greg Tomlinson will have a $270,000,000 nest egg!

[Muse]

Hi all. First time poster but have been a keen follower of this thread since initial listing. I have the greatest of respect for all posters who undoubtedly are far more intelligent than myself. As a firm believer Oceania will deliver the goods in due course( 100% of my current portfolio). Call me foolish if you must but I am a born risk taker and content with that. I would like to add a couple of points to the conversation. Although I believe in Oceana I have little to no faith in The Market as a valuer. Mr Market is a very fickle creature and a reactive one at that.
My first point is Warren Buffet is quoted as saying “ When the market is fearful be greedy and when the market is greedy be fearful). The Market at the moment is very jittery and fearful and do I believe it is a great time to buy. Whether it is the best time I’m not sure.
My second point is if we study the Summerset thread way back in their first few years it’s almost a carbon copy of the Oceana thread with the same opposing opinions. And yet now it appears to bd the darling of the retirement stocks and trading at $10-$11. Imagine if Oceana gets to that level Greg Tomlinson will have a $270,000,000 nest egg!

Nice to see a new poster. Kudos to you for offering your views on what must be one of the most dysfunctional threads on the internet.

[X-men]

61c is a good entry price ....the last time sp was down to this price was COVID time

[Rawz]

Hi all. First time poster but have been a keen follower of this thread since initial listing. I have the greatest of respect for all posters who undoubtedly are far more intelligent than myself. As a firm believer Oceania will deliver the goods in due course( 100% of my current portfolio). Call me foolish if you must but I am a born risk taker and content with that. I would like to add a couple of points to the conversation. Although I believe in Oceana I have little to no faith in The Market as a valuer. Mr Market is a very fickle creature and a reactive one at that.
My first point is Warren Buffet is quoted as saying “ When the market is fearful be greedy and when the market is greedy be fearful). The Market at the moment is very jittery and fearful and do I believe it is a great time to buy. Whether it is the best time I’m not sure.
My second point is if we study the Summerset thread way back in their first few years it’s almost a carbon copy of the Oceana thread with the same opposing opinions. And yet now it appears to bd the darling of the retirement stocks and trading at $10-$11. Imagine if Oceana gets to that level Greg Tomlinson will have a $270,000,000 nest egg!

Welcome and excellent first post

[Snow Leopard]

...I have the greatest of respect for all posters...

Why :confused:

[Habits]

61c is a good entry price ....the last time sp was down to this price was COVID time

I recall 38 cents... I picked up some then for a slightly higher price. Those were the days if positioned to buy.

[winner69]

There was a graph shown of OCA becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of SUM over time. That just shrank a bit more (sobbing emoji)

Updated for you Habits

Can’t keep going down forever eh …note I haven’t changed the y-scale …left it starting at 5% lol

[winner69]

Hi all. First time poster but have been a keen follower of this thread since initial listing. I have the greatest of respect for all posters who undoubtedly are far more intelligent than myself. As a firm believer Oceania will deliver the goods in due course( 100% of my current portfolio). Call me foolish if you must but I am a born risk taker and content with that. I would like to add a couple of points to the conversation. Although I believe in Oceana I have little to no faith in The Market as a valuer. Mr Market is a very fickle creature and a reactive one at that.
My first point is Warren Buffet is quoted as saying “ When the market is fearful be greedy and when the market is greedy be fearful). The Market at the moment is very jittery and fearful and do I believe it is a great time to buy. Whether it is the best time I’m not sure.
My second point is if we study the Summerset thread way back in their first few years it’s almost a carbon copy of the Oceana thread with the same opposing opinions. And yet now it appears to bd the darling of the retirement stocks and trading at $10-$11. Imagine if Oceana gets to that level Greg Tomlinson will have a $270,000,000 nest egg!

A year ago you commented that the falls in OCA and indeed many other shares has very little to do with the company at all and far more to do with the present war occurring in the Middle East!

Still have that view

[Valuegrowth]

Hi all. First time poster but have been a keen follower of this thread since initial listing. I have the greatest of respect for all posters who undoubtedly are far more intelligent than myself. As a firm believer Oceania will deliver the goods in due course( 100% of my current portfolio). Call me foolish if you must but I am a born risk taker and content with that. I would like to add a couple of points to the conversation. Although I believe in Oceana I have little to no faith in The Market as a valuer. Mr Market is a very fickle creature and a reactive one at that.
My first point is Warren Buffet is quoted as saying “ When the market is fearful be greedy and when the market is greedy be fearful). The Market at the moment is very jittery and fearful and do I believe it is a great time to buy. Whether it is the best time I’m not sure.
My second point is if we study the Summerset thread way back in their first few years it’s almost a carbon copy of the Oceana thread with the same opposing opinions. And yet now it appears to bd the darling of the retirement stocks and trading at $10-$11. Imagine if Oceana gets to that level Greg Tomlinson will have a $270,000,000 nest egg! Thank you for some great ideas. Only very intelligent and smart investors or traders put all eggs in one basket. I also have parked nearly 80% in one basket. If we are in the right basket we are going to get massive compound returns. I like to have future strong balance sheets firms. It's better to park money in known businesses than going behind other businesses. Also should apply:

Don't follow the crowd!

Good luck!

[ValueNZ]

If OCA hits 55c (and I pray it does), then in my opinion OCA will be the cheapest it ever has been as a % of intrinsic value.

[ValueNZ]

Im curious as to your thinking around buying more of OCA when you already hold 70% of your portfolio in the stock?

Like you could buy a stock in an upward good news cycle such as TWR. To steal one of Sailors lines- its free money lol

Sailorboy has 10% of his portfolio in OCA (if i remember correctly) so i can understand him buying more at these prices.

Like what if you are wrong with your assumptions on OCA? It does happen. The balance sheet isnt exactly strong. And i remember you once said you liked strong balance sheets.
I remember AI chatbot Valuegrowth spouting some generic crap about strong balance sheets.

But Oceania has an incredible balance sheet relative to the share price.

[Balance]

If OCA hits 55c (and I pray it does), then in my opinion OCA will be the cheapest it ever has been as a % of intrinsic value.

Your prayer almost answered - 56c.

Indexing selldown next week could be very ugly!

[bull....]

Your prayer almost answered - 56c.

Indexing selldown next week could be very ugly!

yep should be closer to covid lows than price now , as you saying many millions to come

[limmy]

Totally disappointed with the share price today. I thought I did well buying at 66c last week. :mad ;:

[Balance]

Totally disappointed with the share price today. I thought I did well buying at 66c last week. :mad ;:

You knew about the index exit?

[ValueNZ]

Your prayer almost answered - 56c.

Indexing selldown next week could be very ugly!
Woohoo! I'm taking out a small loan to buy more :t_up:.

[Rawz]

Woohoo! I'm taking out a small loan to buy more :t_up:.

Please god no

[winner69]

Please god no


Don’t worry rawz ….keeping some of the loan money for next week when he can buy at 49 cents

[Mudfish]

Okay, I'm trying to gather facts about this index selling out thing. Maybe people have a few facts to share? 1. Is there actually a timeframe that index managers are working to to sell their OCA stock? 2. I see approximately 15m shares have changed hands since Monday last week. Any quess how many millions need to be sold? Like kids on a road trip, "Are we there yet?" 3.
How about the recovery after the selling has stopped? Ive read some stuff that it can recover well after a month or so. With OCA, who knows. So, I'm just trying to get my head around how much pressure there is to sell. Any thoughts would be appreciated. Cheers

[X-men]

SP will go back up.... perhaps the index finished selling...see GNE case?? Arvida case too...

For those wanting to buy....split it into 3-4 parcels...

Let's say U want to buy 20k shares...do it 4x within 10 days of trading days

So U will get the average SP...

[Baa_Baa]

Woohoo! I'm taking out a small loan to buy more :t_up:.

I can't think of a lender that would loan you the dosh, in your circumstances, unless it was a benevolent benefactor. ASB would probably turn you down, though their margin lending on OCA is 60%, but at a rate of 9.35% p.a. which given OCA aren't paying dividends, and even when they were it was roughly half the margin interest rate, that % will quickly add up to a significant decline in absolute returns. Of course it depends on how long you had the loan, or the margin loan, whether you were called on the loan, and whether the SP substantially increased and you sold a pile of stock to cover the costs, and maybe take the capital gains out.

Maybe you're just pulling our legs?

[ValueNZ]

I can't think of a lender that would loan you the dosh, in your circumstances, unless it was a benevolent benefactor. ASB would probably turn you down, though their margin lending on OCA is 60%, but at a rate of 9.35% p.a. which given OCA aren't paying dividends, and even when they were it was roughly half the margin interest rate, that % will quickly add up to a significant decline in absolute returns. Of course it depends on how long you had the loan, or the margin loan, whether you were called on the loan, and whether the SP substantially increased and you sold a pile of stock to cover the costs, and maybe take the capital gains out.

Maybe you're just pulling our legs?
Not pulling your leg.

My mum said she was willing to lend some cash, so you could call her a benevolent benefactor. But I honestly don't think that's fair, I'll be paying her an interest rate ~10%, more than I think she'd be able to earn anywhere else. So it is mutually beneficial for her and I.

It'll be non-callable, and I'll easily be able to service the debt.

[ValueNZ]

You've been awfully quiet these past few days Baa_Baa, I can only assume you've been buying ;)

[Baa_Baa]

Holders will be hurting for sure, but moreso if they crystallise losses into the sustained selling, buggar all holders will be in capital profits and many will be in very substantial paper losses. As ValueNZ pointed out, and it's more poignant now, there were VERY FEW days that the the Covid low presented buy SP like now or below, very few. Likewise volume was relatively low as well during that time, so it stands to reason that the much larger volume now is selling into a loss, possibly a big loss. You don't have to follow the lemmings off the cliff, even if they are instos forced to sell into a rebalance.

Buy side is falling away, though so is sell side at the margins. This speaks to uncertainty, and hardly surprising as OCA has never (except Covid) had its SP daily go off the cliff like it has these past few days, the decent on the chart is pretty much vertical, although volumes are not as impressive.

Anyone who holds OCA and doesn't want any more, is in for the long haul, that's for sure, especially if they're only in in for capital gains. This is and has never been a capital gains story, that's a scenario is quite far down the track. The traders are loving this, you can see by the shift in posters vocal on this thread, circling like vultures waiting patiently for the lows, good on them, like who would have ever expected a boring RV in a successful turnaround multi year strategy to ever be so volatile, for so long.

Those whether holding or not, who want some, or want more, now is the time to be closely watching the SP. The opportunity might unfold a bit more over the next few weeks, or it might not and slam shut as fast as the Covid lows did.

[Habits]

buy $100,000 of OCA cheap, the problem is if they get even cheaper. I'm glad I dont have $100k available

[Baa_Baa]

Not pulling your leg.

My mum said she was willing to lend some cash, so you could call her a benevolent benefactor. But I don't think that's honestly don't think that's fair, I'll be paying her an interest rate ~10%, more than I think she'd be able to earn anywhere else. So it is mutually beneficial for her and I.

It'll be non-callable, and I'll easily be able to service the debt.

So I was right, no further comment, expect maybe don't rush into the buy side, this has a week or so to play out and you might get a better top up from your mothers money than tomorrow or the next day.

I presume you've done the maths on the interest rate payments versus the returns from OCA (which with no dividends and currently no capital growth are largely unknowable), especially that you bring the downside into the nearer term, versus the longer term without the debt.

[Baa_Baa]

You've been awfully quiet these past few days Baa_Baa, I can only assume you've been buying ;)

I don't usually say much when the Traders (bless them) have taken over the thread. While understandable as OCA is getting smashed by the market (SP), I'd rather keep my powder dry and being predominantly a TA with a decent (learned here) FA, now is a time to be quiet and see how this plays out.

That said, I have a modest incremental stash ready to deploy when I think this has bottomed out. My other stocks, against OCA which is so massively declining has morphed my stock portfolio balance into a weird place, where I can justify investing more in OCA whereas until recently that would be portfolio balancing police inducing incrimination.

Either way, OCA, if you believe it has a long term future, these are close to the times when you'll never regret buying some and owning it (imho). If not though, then it's just a noisy commentary from the sidelines.

[ValueNZ]

I don't usually say much when the Traders (bless them) have taken over the thread. While understandable as OCA is getting smashed by the market (SP), I'd rather keep my powder dry and being predominantly a TA with a decent (learned here) FA, now is a time to be quiet and see how this plays out.

That said, I have a modest incremental stash ready to deploy when I think this has bottomed out. My other stocks, against OCA which is so massively declining has morphed my stock portfolio balance into a weird place, where I can justify investing more in OCA whereas until recently that would be portfolio balancing police inducing incrimination.

Either way, OCA, if you believe it has a long term future, these are close to the times when you'll never regret buying some and owning it (imho). If not though, then it's just a noisy commentary from the sidelines.
Can't say I agree in regards to "seeing how this plays out." There's no reason to believe TA will get you a better price, and you'll be annoyed with yourself if OCA jumps in price whilst you waited around with cash on the sidelines.

All I'll say is 56c is about as cheap as 38c was in 2020 adjusted for the growth of OCA. I wish you luck in getting a lower price than that.

[Baa_Baa]

Can't say I agree in regards to "seeing how this plays out." There's no reason to believe TA will get you a better price, and you'll be annoyed with yourself if OCA jumps in price whilst you waited around with cash on the sidelines.

All I'll say is 56c is about as cheap as 38c was in 2020 adjusted for the growth of OCA. I wish you luck in getting a lower price than that.

I get it, you're not familiar with TA, in the early days of the different techniques for informing investments, it might as well be chicken entrails or tea leaves, that's OK. No respectable TA though ever hit the top or the bottom of SP precisely, except by chance, it's a matter of probability and confidence. Most will be a bit late to the bottom to buy (confidence) and a bit late to the sell (confidence). I'll show you sometime if you want to. I have no ambition to pick the absolute bottom SP in this cycle, a few percent either way is neither here nor there to me over the longer term, but we're talking about market sentiment now, not about intrinsic value, somewhere close would be a win.

I would never borrow money at above average interest rates to accumulate more stock that is not in a seriously unquestionable sustained capital price uptrend. And I'd have hard stop-losses on my account to ensure I didn't get burned by adverse events in the SP. Limit buys and limits sells (stop losses) are straying into traders territory, but they're certainly going to protect your capital (to some extent), especially if you're borrowing to invest.

[troyvdh]

I guess what will be the SP in say 5-10 years time.
KISS I guess.

[ValueNZ]

I get it, you're not familiar with TA, in the early days of the different techniques for informing investments, it might as well be chicken entrails or tea leaves, that's OK. No respectable TA though ever hit the top or the bottom of SP precisely, except by chance, it's a matter of probability and confidence. Most will be a bit late to the bottom to buy (confidence) and a bit late to the sell (confidence). I'll show you sometime if you want to. I have no ambition to pick the absolute bottom SP in this cycle, a few percent either way is neither here nor there to me over the longer term, but we're talking about market sentiment now, not about intrinsic value, somewhere close would be a win.

I would never borrow money at above average interest rates to accumulate more stock that is not in a seriously unquestionable sustained capital price uptrend. And I'd have hard stop-losses on my account to ensure I didn't get burned by adverse events in the SP. Limit buys and limits sells (stop losses) are straying into traders territory, but they're certainly going to protect your capital (to some extent), especially if you're borrowing to invest.
I am familiar with TA, just not the intricacies. Enough to know it's a crock of sh!t.

So you would borrow money in my circumstance if OCA instead rose to $1, or $1.50? But not at 56c. Right... Sorry Baa_Baa, that is totally nonsensical.

I already said my loan is going to be uncallable, so the suggestion of a stop loss seriously makes no sense. I don't get burned if the SP drops dramatically, I get burned if I am forced to sell my shares. Holding the business's future cashflows constant, the SP can drop to 40c, 30c, or 20c and I wont be upset, I'll be ecstatic.

[Snoopy]

Woohoo! I'm taking out a small loan to buy more :t_up:.


Not pulling your leg.

My mum said she was willing to lend some cash, so you could call her a benevolent benefactor. But I honestly don't think that's fair, I'll be paying her an interest rate ~10%, more than I think she'd be able to earn anywhere else. So it is mutually beneficial for her and I.

It'll be non-callable, and I'll easily be able to service the debt.


Well it might be callable if your Mum needs a new set of dentures at her OCA care unit in fifty years time. Or maybe she will claw the money back by getting you to pay rent at home well before then?

Seriously though, borrowing to invest, when there is no cashflow coming in and anything that is spare is to be hoovered up by those greedy banks is foolish IMO. That is because there is a fundamental reason the share price has fallen. Higher interest rates means it is harder to sell houses on the outside at sufficient premium to give you a good life when you go into an OCA villa. And it also means OCA is will be paying higher interest on their borrowings. Basically OCA are facing a cash crunch from both ends for an indeterminate period. Yes I know the commentators are picking the current high interest rates will stick around for a year or so, and then drop and so relieving the OCA double crunch. But as BP would say, prediction is a fraught thing, especially about the future. What happens if interest rates remain high for another year? And what happens when the OAPs income drops in relative terms with superannuation tied to inflation rather than wages? You will find the link between property values outside the village and inside the village will start to break down. That is what will happen.

I know the bond funding issue doesn't arise before 2027, with those OCA010 bonds. But OCA won't let their funding go down to the wire. So a new bond issue or, gulp, discounted share issue could come sooner than you think. And you don't have a good handle on this because OCA have not told you what their banking covenants are. Whatever the long term business targets are at OCA, you still have to survive the rocky road to get there, and there are several significant transient unknowns on the way. By all means follow your convictions and invest your cash as you see fit. But leveraging up to buy OCA shares? I would say that is a step too far, even if your 'bet' (for that is what it is) turns out to be a winner. Of course being of the young generation, I expect you to take no notice of this advice at all. So all I will say to you is, 'good luck', and hopefully you will learn the sharemarket lessons you need to learn while you are still young and there is not really serious money involved.

SNOOPY

[ValueNZ]

Of course being of the young generation, I expect you to take no notice of this advice at all. So all I will say to you is, 'good luck', and hopefully you will learn the sharemarket lessons you need to learn while you are still young and there is not really serious money involved.

You say there's not serious money involved, but I easily have 50 years of compounding ahead of me. Any permanent loss of capital now will have a huge impact on my NW when I'm older. In the millions.

I understand this well which is why I will never speculate, or take on risks that involve permanent loss of capital.

[Habits]

Please ValueNZ don't borrow too much that you have to pay thousands in interest

[Snoopy]

You say there's not serious money involved, but I easily have 50 years of compounding ahead of me. Any permanent loss of capital now will have a huge impact on my NW when I'm older. In the millions.


Only if you imagine your investment balance going up on a nice even slope towards infinity as time marches on. Real world investment returns tend to be lumpy. I would say with your long investment time-frame, you will find plenty of 'surprising' opportunities along the way. - maybe even as good as OCA trading at 59c today.



I understand this well which is why I will never speculate, or take on risks that involve permanent loss of capital.


Don't get me wrong, I am not saying investing in OCA at these prices is a bad idea. I have to admit even my own snout is sensing that whiff of opportunity when the share price starts with a '5'.

But when you are buying something which currently has a zero income stream attached and you are shelling out interest to pay for that opportunity, then that IS speculation in my book. And just to be clear I am not even saying all speculation is necessarily bad. But with those hidden banking covenants, a possible discounted capital raising to fix things and the main customer market facing more austerity than the recent past, I would put OCA as an interesting portfolio hold, rather than a sure fire all in bet to go in with all my cash - and more!

SNOOPY

[nztx]

I recall 38 cents... I picked up some then for a slightly higher price. Those were the days if positioned to buy.


those happy days riding the Rest Home sector listings higher off into the Covid sunsets - huh ? ;)

When MetLifeCare was still being kicked around the field too ..

Think the signal of the end of the party must have been close to time of ARV's CR @ a lofty $1.97

[Habits]

those happy days riding the Rest Home sector listings higher off into the Covid sunsets - huh ? ;)

When MetLifeCare was still being kicked around the field too ..

Think the signal of the end of the party must have been close to time of ARV's CR @ a lofty $1.97

Yep those were the days, the happy halcyon days under Jacinda in 2020 when life and money making was simple and fun. Can it happen again for OCA

[ValueNZ]

Logic of a newt crawling out of the primordial soup indeed!
Hey Balance, just read some of your posts on the other channel. Thought I'd share some of them incase anyone thought you had any credibility.

October 23th - "One of the best risk-adjusted fixed interest investments in the market has to be the SML 2024 bonds imo... I have quietly picked up a parcel in recent times and believe that those who bought the bonds at 3.83% pa yield and sold out at up to 18% pa have not thought through the strategic nature of SML to Bright Foods and ATM."

January 19th - "I have the unsecured subordinated bonds and am perfectly relaxed."

Meanwhile...
14964

LOL. What logic did you use when you bought those bonds at a price way higher than they are now, and do you ever think you'll get anything back for them.

[Rawz]

Oh my

*Rawz grabs popcorn and settles into office chair*

[Lego_Man]

Hey Balance, just read some of your posts on the other channel. Thought I'd share some of them incase anyone thought you had any credibility.

October 23th - "One of the best risk-adjusted fixed interest investments in the market has to be the SML 2024 bonds imo... I have quietly picked up a parcel in recent times and believe that those who bought the bonds at 3.83% pa yield and sold out at up to 18% pa have not thought through the strategic nature of SML to Bright Foods and ATM."

January 19th - "I have the unsecured subordinated bonds and am perfectly relaxed."

Meanwhile...
14964

LOL. What logic did you use when you bought those bonds at a price way higher than they are now, and do you ever think you'll get anything back for them.


TBF it's around a 5% MTM capital loss (due to the nature of yield calculation approaching maturity) and he will have collected coupons along the way.

[ValueNZ]

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/a67b0d43-0289-4bce-8499-0c102eaa8399

The MSCI World Small Cap Index is an index fund with just over $7 billion USD spread over 4,169 different stocks. If the index were equal weighted that'd be 4 million shares of OCA sold by the 29th of February, no where near the 30 million being claimed by Balance.

Does anyone know the fund weighting works? To me it seems unlikely to be a very large sell down, possibly a million shares or less.

[bull....]

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/a67b0d43-0289-4bce-8499-0c102eaa8399

The MSCI World Small Cap Index is an index fund with just over $7 billion USD spread over 4,169 different stocks. If the index were equal weighted that'd be 4 million shares of OCA sold by the 29th of February, no where near the 30 million being claimed by Balance.

Does anyone know the fund weighting works? To me it seems unlikely to be a very large sell down, possibly a million shares or less.

oh no :scared: that makes it even worse the stock not falling because of stock overhang what else is the reason for the fall :scared::scared:

[Balance]

Hey Balance, just read some of your posts on the other channel. Thought I'd share some of them incase anyone thought you had any credibility.

October 23th - "One of the best risk-adjusted fixed interest investments in the market has to be the SML 2024 bonds imo... I have quietly picked up a parcel in recent times and believe that those who bought the bonds at 3.83% pa yield and sold out at up to 18% pa have not thought through the strategic nature of SML to Bright Foods and ATM."

January 19th - "I have the unsecured subordinated bonds and am perfectly relaxed."

Meanwhile...
14964

LOL. What logic did you use when you bought those bonds at a price way higher than they are now, and do you ever think you'll get anything back for them.

Thanks for your concern, ValueNZ (if indeed you are concerned but are willing to learn*).

First and foremost, as Lego_Man has already explained (refer #18926), bonds are valued on a YTM basis so :

At 18% pa in October 23, they were bought for 87c and at 32% pa today, they can be sold for 81.4c. Hardly catastrophic but I guess you looked at the 18% going to 32% only without an understanding of how bonds are priced.

So I can get my money back alright if I decide to sell them today and take a small loss (5.5%) but why would I do that when I can get $1.00 back in Dec 2024?

Secondly, if you bother to read the SML thread properly rather than just the one post (from which you tried to score a stupid point), you will understand why I am perfectly relaxed about my position.

* So have you learnt something today or prefer to continue to be the echo for SailorRob who posts big but is a small fry?

[peat]

Still stand by my di-worsification


My friend, volatility is not risk.

Do not take your instruction from Mr market.

Your di worsification will see you get the long term results you deserve.

You must value OCA yourself and not take instruction from 'the market'

Buying OCA at $1.50 and seeing it drop to 78c is the very opposite of pain, this is all very basic stuff.


actually , tho, as in actual reality, OCA equity paper is depreciating pretty rapidly and has been for nearly two years now with no real sign of a turnaround, so all your words about the future are just reckons. clearly the market has a problem with OCA otherwise it would likely be closer to NTA. And the market is what determines the current price, not the NTA, not your reckons, and not everyones expectations which have been pushed around for years now, hey I'm exposed to this too but thanks to a strong concept of diversification in other markets, other shares, and holding cash in TD's the pain is relatively minimal and acceptable under the view of a long term holding.

So I wouldnt be touting this as the next best thing quite yet especially to people who already have a decent exposure.
14366


You’re deluded

[Balance]

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/a67b0d43-0289-4bce-8499-0c102eaa8399

The MSCI World Small Cap Index is an index fund with just over $7 billion USD spread over 4,169 different stocks. If the index were equal weighted that'd be 4 million shares of OCA sold by the 29th of February, no where near the 30 million being claimed by Balance.

Does anyone know the fund weighting works? To me it seems unlikely to be a very large sell down, possibly a million shares or less.

Showing again you have no idea how indexing works but if you are willing to learn, read on.

The MSCI Index is not just the index fund of US$7 billion but is used by any number of fund managers around the world to track their performances against said Index.

So they buy stocks in the Index to provide a measure of how they perform against the Index. They buy all the stocks if they run tracker funds but some will underweight or overweight stocks in the Index to try & boost their performances vs the Index.

If you want an idea of how many OCA shares are likely to be sold, I suggest you do some homework* and look at the exit of ATM & SUM on Nov 30th 2023, and the exit of SKC & Chorus on May 31st 2023.

*Do the homework and you may learn something but knowing you, you will refer it to your hero, SailorRob so he can give you his view? :D

BTW, the 30m OCA shares were estimated by my broker contact and it's their job to get it as correct as they can. But what would they know vs your hero, SR. :D

[Rawz]

Thanks for your concern, ValueNZ (if indeed you are concerned but are willing to learn*).

First and foremost, as Lego_Man has already explained (refer #18926), bonds are valued on a YTM basis so :

At 18% pa in October 23, they were bought for 87c and at 32% pa today, they can be sold for 81.4c. Hardly catastrophic but I guess you looked at the 18% going to 32% only without an understanding of how bonds are priced.

So I can get my money back alright if I decide to sell them today and take a small loss (5.5%) but why would I do that when I can get $1.00 back in Dec 2024?

Secondly, if you bother to read the SML thread properly rather than just the one post (from which you tried to score a stupid point), you will understand why I am perfectly relaxed about my position.

* So have you learnt something today or prefer to continue to be the echo for SailorRob who posts big but is a small fry?



How does this work Balance?

Is it to do with the p.a rate being quoted? i.e. 32% is a p.a. rate but if you buy today at 81cents its an 10 month investment only.

Like I would have assumed with the near doubling of the yield the bond price would have near halved. I.e. coupon rate stays the same so for the yield to increase the price needed to drop?

[Balance]

How does this work Balance?

Is it to do with the p.a rate being quoted? i.e. 32% is a p.a. rate but if you buy today at 81cents its an 10 month investment only.

Like I would have assumed with the near doubling of the yield the bond price would have near halved. I.e. coupon rate stays the same so for the yield to increase the price needed to drop?

It's yield to maturity in Dec 2024 so :

Buy at 81.4c today gives you :

3.83c interest on 81.4c = 4.7%

18.6c on maturity on 81.4c (ie.$1.00 less 81.4c) = 22.85%

So 4.7% + 22.85% = 27.55% for roughly 10 months etc etc.

[Rawz]

It's yield to maturity in Dec 2024 so :

Buy at 81.4c today gives you :

3.83c interest on 81.4c = 4.7%

18.6c on maturity on 81.4c (ie.$1.00 less 81.4c) = 22.85%

So 4.7% + 22.85% = 27.55% for roughly 10 months etc etc.

I see. Cheers

[Balance]

I see. Cheers

We are all here to learn, share and hopefully, prosper.

Sad that some think that this is a forum to talk big and try to bluff their way with BS and inappropriate references to Buffett as if they actually know something useful to share!

Cheers!

[Balance]

Still stand by my di-worsification


My friend, volatility is not risk.

Do not take your instruction from Mr market.

Your di worsification will see you get the long term results you deserve.

You must value OCA yourself and not take instruction from 'the market'

Buying OCA at $1.50 and seeing it drop to 78c is the very opposite of pain, this is all very basic stuff.

Agreed, Peat - BS of the highest order from SR but embraced by the likes of ValueNZ.

Sad given that ValueNZ actually wrote that he wanted to learn from this forum!

One golden rule learnt over the years (in a painful way) - Never fall in love with a stock so much that you lose all objectivity.

[mistaTea]

One golden rule learnt over the years (in a painful way) - Never fall in love with a stock so much that you lose all objectivity.

Amen to that. And pain the best teacher often - as I know from personal experience too.

[Balance]

Amen to that. And pain the best teacher often - as I know from personal experience too.

You and me both, mT. And probably many others too.

Other lesson learnt the hard way - never double up continuously in a downtrend.

[alokdhir]

Oh my

*Rawz grabs popcorn and settles into office chair*

VN fell into trap ...maybe he shud have brought out Balance's disdain for crypto posts then it wud have been little better outcome for him ...just having fun Balance ...no offence intended ....but I remember Bitcoin at $ 1000 prophesy ...lol ...just cud not resist it ...Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like ....:p

[Balance]

VN fell into trap ...maybe he shud have brought out Balance's disdain for crypto posts then it wud have been little better outcome for him ...just having fun Balance ...no offence intended ....but I remember Bitcoin at $ 1000 prophesy ...lol ...just cud not resist it ...Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like ....:p

A good reminder indeed to stick to what we are comfortable with after we have gone our analysis and assessments.

And not to blindly follow others - especially those who post big but are full of BS.

[alokdhir]

A good reminder indeed to stick to what we are comfortable with after we have gone our analysis and assessments.

And not to blindly follow others - especially those who post big but are full of BS.

Fully endorse your views and respect your wisdom mate ....Never disrespect Mr Market ...its not wrong over longer duration ...cyclical or others patterns it can follow but wont misread the true worth otherwise .

[mistaTea]

Fully endorse your views and respect your wisdom mate ....Never disrespect Mr Market ...its not wrong over longer duration ...cyclical or others patterns it can follow but wont misread the true worth otherwise .

Yes, the fact the Mr Market gets it wrong some of the time should not be confused with the idea that Mr Market gets it wrong most of the time.

In the long run Mr Market is a weighing machine and does a decent enough job.

To gloss over why Mr Market has set a certain price for a stock is to ensure a big blind spot in my view. Especially for stocks like OCA where the allegedly 'undervalued stock' and 'low price' is sustained for 2 years.

Mr Market can get it wrong from time to time*, but do not think him a complete twit!

*The number of times he is truly 'wrong' is probably smaller than a lot of "long term value" guys think. Even when a price goes down, and then up in a short period of time there are often rational explanations. So in hindsight, just looking at a graph may make it look like Mr Market was just off his meds... yet it may turn out that some macro economic force pushed a stock down because the industry is especially susceptible, only to have central bankers drop interest rates which then inflates stock prices.

The number of times in this day and age when Mr Market just completely misprices a stock for absolutely no reason at all is incredibly rare. Most of the time, for most stocks you are paying a fair value on any given trade.

I will probably get labelled a EMT loon now. But I don't think I am. I don't think that markets are perfectly efficient. But I do think they are reasonably efficient, most of the time.

[ValueNZ]

Thanks for your concern, ValueNZ (if indeed you are concerned but are willing to learn*).

First and foremost, as Lego_Man has already explained (refer #18926), bonds are valued on a YTM basis so :

At 18% pa in October 23, they were bought for 87c and at 32% pa today, they can be sold for 81.4c. Hardly catastrophic but I guess you looked at the 18% going to 32% only without an understanding of how bonds are priced.

So I can get my money back alright if I decide to sell them today and take a small loss (5.5%) but why would I do that when I can get $1.00 back in Dec 2024?

Secondly, if you bother to read the SML thread properly rather than just the one post (from which you tried to score a stupid point), you will understand why I am perfectly relaxed about my position.

* So have you learnt something today or prefer to continue to be the echo for SailorRob who posts big but is a small fry?
Good luck actually getting your cash when the bond matures mate.

Either a) there is significant credit risk or b) the market is wrong. Funny, because reading this thread anyone would think you are a stern EMH believer.

[ValueNZ]

Showing again you have no idea how indexing works but if you are willing to learn, read on.

The MSCI Index is not just the index fund of US$7 billion but is used by any number of fund managers around the world to track their performances against said Index.

So they buy stocks in the Index to provide a measure of how they perform against the Index. They buy all the stocks if they run tracker funds but some will underweight or overweight stocks in the Index to try & boost their performances vs the Index.

If you want an idea of how many OCA shares are likely to be sold, I suggest you do some homework* and look at the exit of ATM & SUM on Nov 30th 2023, and the exit of SKC & Chorus on May 31st 2023.

*Do the homework and you may learn something but knowing you, you will refer it to your hero, SailorRob so he can give you his view? :D

BTW, the 30m OCA shares were estimated by my broker contact and it's their job to get it as correct as they can. But what would they know vs your hero, SR. :D
Interesting, and what you say may be true. But please, show me the proof that ~30m shares are likely to be sold!

[Balance]

Good luck actually getting your cash when the bond matures mate.

Either a) there is significant credit risk or b) the market is wrong. Funny, because reading this thread anyone would think you are a stern EMH believer.

The market is NOT wrong - it is simply pricing in the risk of default given the lack of progress on asset sale and capital raising.

And if SML bondholders are going to lose money on maturity, SML's shares will have to drop to zero first as equity holders lose all their money first before debt holders.

Sounds like you have learnt nothing except continue to make a fool of yourself by revealing for all how ignorant you really are.

[Balance]

Interesting, and what you say may be true. But please, show me the proof that ~30m shares are likely to be sold!

Proof?

Do the homework as I politely asked you to. You may yet learn to do some analysis for yourself.

Otherwise, just ask your hero SR. :t_up:

[ValueNZ]

Agreed, Peat - BS of the highest order from SR but embraced by the likes of ValueNZ.

Sad given that ValueNZ actually wrote that he wanted to learn from this forum!

One golden rule learnt over the years (in a painful way) - Never fall in love with a stock so much that you lose all objectivity.
I have objectivity, I value Oceania with no regard to what the market price is.

Buffett once said something along the lines of, you aren't right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you. And you're not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you. You're right because your facts and reasoning are right.

OCA isn't worth 63% less in 2.5 years, and that's what the market is saying. OCA is worth more than it was in late 2021, but yet this near 2/3 discount has been applied. So you have to determine your own valuation for the business, and compare that to the market price. If the discount is significant enough that even if you're wrong about certain assumptions you still earn a great return over the long run, then there's no reason to not buy (no "it's in a downtrend!!!" BS). That's the Graham-Newman approach and that's the only statistically significant way of beating the market over the long run.

[winner69]

You’re a good soul Balance going to the lengths you do to explain things in a relatively straight forward way

I’m sure most appreciate your efforts

[ValueNZ]

Proof?

Do the homework as I politely asked you to. You may yet learn to do some analysis for yourself.

Otherwise, just ask your hero SR. :t_up:
You made a claim, I said there may be truth in your claim, all I am asking for is proof.

[ValueNZ]

The market is NOT wrong - it is simply pricing in the risk of default given the lack of progress on asset sale and capital raising.
Right. So you own bonds in a company where there is a significant chance of defaulting. Your return is derived from the additional risk you are taking on. Good luck getting your cash when the bond matures.

[winner69]

I have objectivity, I value Oceania with no regard to what the market price is.

Buffett once said something along the lines of, you aren't right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you. And you're not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you. You're right because your facts and reasoning are right.

OCA isn't worth 63% less in 2.5 years, and that's what the market is saying. OCA is worth more than it was in late 2021, but yet this near 2/3 discount has been applied. So you have to determine your own valuation for the business, and compare that to the market price. If the discount is significant enough that even if you're wrong about certain assumptions you still earn a great return over the long run, then there's no reason to not buy (no "it's in a downtrend!!!" BS). That's the Graham-Newman approach and that's the only statistically significant way of beating the market over the long run.

Value ….Are you saying that in your eyes OCA was ‘worth’ $1.60 some 2.5 years ago …..and that’s it ‘worth more’ than $1.60 today.


What is your ‘own valuation’

[ValueNZ]

Value ….Are you saying that in your eyes OCA was ‘worth’ $1.60 some 2.5 years ago …..and that’s it ‘worth more’ than $1.60 today.


What is your ‘own valuation’
Hard to say an exact number but at least $2.50 at a 10% discount rate. But I'd probably sell before that depending on other opportunities in the market.

[Balance]

Right. So you own bonds in a company where there is a significant chance of defaulting. Your return is derived from the additional risk you are taking on. Good luck getting your cash when the bond matures.

I don’t rely on luck but you obviously do with OCA so good luck!

[Daytr]

Hard to say an exact number but at least $2.50 at a 10% discount rate. But I'd probably sell before that depending on other opportunities in the market.

Tell him he's dreamin !
You think the company now is worth circa $2Bln? Wow.

My valuation is more like 99c & I was only using a 7% discount rate.

Anyhoo, if Balance is right and about 10% of the company is about to be sold off on the 29th, you are sweet. Just sit tight, wait and let the shares drop into Ma's loan money until it's all used up.
Hell under your reckoning you will be buying for about 20c in the dollar.

[Balance]

You made a claim, I said there may be truth in your claim, all I am asking for is proof.

I passed on information I received from my broker contact in the interest of helping those contemplating buying or selling OCA - after checking against the volumes of stock sold when SKC, Chorus, ATM and SUM were exited last year from the MSCI index.

You plucked a number (1m shares) based upon the incorrect premise of how the MSCI index system works.

So I asked you to do some homework so you can learn - something which you apparently are incapable of?

So screw you - you stay ignorant and be blissful!

[Balance]

You’re a good soul Balance going to the lengths you do to explain things in a relatively straight forward way

I’m sure most appreciate your efforts

Thanks W69.

We are all here to learn, share and hopefully prosper.

Well, most of us anyway!

[ValueNZ]

Tell him he's dreamin !
You think the company now is worth circa $2Bln? Wow.

My valuation is more like 99c & I was only using a 7% discount rate.

Anyhoo, if Balance is right and about 10% of the company is about to be sold off on the 29th, you are sweet. Just sit tight, wait and let the shares drop into Ma's loan money until it's all used up.
Hell under your reckoning you will be buying for about 20c in the dollar.
Beauty of float. SUM is an interesting case study to look at, like looking into the future with OCA.

[Daytr]

Beauty of float. SUM is an interesting case study to look, like looking into the future with OCA.

What float?
There is no float yet.
They have debt, quite a lot of debt.
Yes over time it's likely a surplus will start building and then they will likely return to paying it out in dividends, not just sit on it like an investment company and compounding it.

If you are banking on that in your valuation then you are making a very large assumption, or I would actually say a figment of SailorBoy's imagination.

[Muse]

What float?
or I would actually say a figment of SailorBoy's imagination.

One in the same, or father & son duo?

Anyway. Has anyone considered this price trend is simply the inverse of an index pop like TRA/HLG? Different dynamics, with this an exclusion, and if true an exclusion from the MSCI index not NZX50. But let's test out some logic.

Traders and instos become aware of the exclusion. They start selling down portions of their shares, swamping the retail buyside, in full anticipation the SP will fall. This situation further exacerbated by Ryman's profit warning. The actual index funds most likely not the sellers - they tend to operate in the final closing match and adjust session before exclusion.

The final closing match operates like a book build for the index funds needing to exit and same traders and instos that had been selling down. Lots of tranches at varying share prices for both the buy and sell side entered, big demand from the instos as a rare opportunity to buy a very large stake at artificially depressed prices, closing match algorithm closes at a price that produces in the highest volume sold.

The index exclusion selling pressure finishes. would have thought normal buy side returns and people start considering the price to NTA which is at incredibly low levels. Probably some profit taking after the first leg up and traders stag their shares. then mkt just does its thing.

Anyway - just wild musings. who knows?

The rumored 30m shares seems like an awful lot. For reference the TRA/HLG nzx50 inclusions were 2.5-3% of shares outstanding, 30m would be over 4%. but i've got no idea what is normal for MSCI index inclusions/exclusions & how shares are individually weighted.

[Daytr]

One in the same, or father & son duo?

Anyway. Has anyone considered this price trend is simply the inverse of an index pop like TRA/HLG? Different dynamics, with this an exclusion, and if true an exclusion from the MSCI index not NZX50. But let's test out some logic.

Traders and instos become aware of the exclusion. They start selling down portions of their shares, swamping the retail buyside, in full anticipation the SP will fall. This situation further exacerbated by Ryman's profit warning. The actual index funds most likely not the sellers - they tend to operate in the final closing match and adjust session before exclusion.

The final closing match operates like a book build for the index funds needing to exit and same traders and instos that had been selling down. Lots of tranches at varying share prices for both the buy and sell side entered, big demand from the instos as a rare opportunity to buy a very large stake at artificially depressed prices, closing match algorithm closes at a price that produces in the highest volume sold.

The index exclusion selling pressure finishes. would have thought normal buy side returns and people start considering the price to NTA which is at incredibly low levels. Probably some profit taking after the first leg up and traders stag their shares. then mkt just does its thing.

Anyway - just wild musings. who knows?

The rumored 30m shares seems like an awful lot. For reference the TRA/HLG nzx50 inclusions were 2.5-3% of shares outstanding, 30m would be over 4%. but i've got no idea what is normal for MSCI index inclusions/exclusions & how shares are individually weighted.


Muse, I think you muse very well.
If this sell off continues next week, I think it could present quite a good buying opportunity.

[bull....]

One in the same, or father & son duo?

Anyway. Has anyone considered this price trend is simply the inverse of an index pop like TRA/HLG? Different dynamics, with this an exclusion, and if true an exclusion from the MSCI index not NZX50. But let's test out some logic.

Traders and instos become aware of the exclusion. They start selling down portions of their shares, swamping the retail buyside, in full anticipation the SP will fall. This situation further exacerbated by Ryman's profit warning. The actual index funds most likely not the sellers - they tend to operate in the final closing match and adjust session before exclusion.

The final closing match operates like a book build for the index funds needing to exit and same traders and instos that had been selling down. Lots of tranches at varying share prices for both the buy and sell side entered, big demand from the instos as a rare opportunity to buy a very large stake at artificially depressed prices, closing match algorithm closes at a price that produces in the highest volume sold.

The index exclusion selling pressure finishes. would have thought normal buy side returns and people start considering the price to NTA which is at incredibly low levels. Probably some profit taking after the first leg up and traders stag their shares. then mkt just does its thing.

Anyway - just wild musings. who knows?

The rumored 30m shares seems like an awful lot. For reference the TRA/HLG nzx50 inclusions were 2.5-3% of shares outstanding, 30m would be over 4%. but i've got no idea what is normal for MSCI index inclusions/exclusions & how shares are individually weighted.

yep i agree reverse of tra gentrack etc etc

[bull....]

Hard to say an exact number but at least $2.50 at a 10% discount rate. But I'd probably sell before that depending on other opportunities in the market.

exactly , anyway i think you and sailor rob are seriously under water on your positions

[aquaman]

Interestingly in the last ten days(from the 12th) approx 16m shares traded which is approx double the previous ten days. The higher volume started prior to the ryman news on the 19th. It also appears that the larger/increase in sales and drop in prices is generally in the last hour of trading which , as bull has mentioned is likely the sales due to removal from index especially as this pattern commenced prior to ryman news and if bull is correct in his estimates another 15m to go over next few days. Then back to normal trading hopefully and there is still some buyers left. I have taken advantage of these lower prices, and will be watching closely over next few days for a further drop with a longer term view of at least 5 years for things to get better

[Daytr]

Interestingly in the last ten days(from the 12th) approx 16m shares traded which is approx double the previous ten days. The higher volume started prior to the ryman news on the 19th. It also appears that the larger/increase in sales and drop in prices is generally in the last hour of trading which , as bull has mentioned is likely the sales due to removal from index especially as this pattern commenced prior to ryman news and if bull is correct in his estimates another 15m to go over next few days. Then back to normal trading hopefully and there is still some buyers left. I have taken advantage of these lower prices, and will be watching closely over next few days for a further drop with a longer term view of at least 5 years for things to get better

That was the day the MSCI rebalancing was announced.

[Greekwatchdog]

exactly , anyway i think you and sailor rob are seriously under water on your positions

Bull, Begging your pardon, but it only matters if your up or down when you sell. If your a long term investor the day dribble mean nothing.
However, to a trader the day to day movements would make more sense in your post.

From what I can tell both SR and VNZ are long term based on there investment Philosophy so current pricing would mean they will be accumulating based on their respective Philosophy towards OCA.

[aquaman]

and just to add to that, someone else is happy with these prices!
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[dubya]

and just to add to that, someone else is happy with these prices!
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/image/

Your link didn't work for some reason aquaman??
Here's what you wanted to show:

14965

[bull....]

Bull, Begging your pardon, but iy=t only matters if your up or down when you sell. If your a long term investor the day dribble mean nothing.
However, to a trader the day to day movements would make more sense in your post.

From what I can tell both SR and VNZ are long term based on there investment Philosophy so current pricing would mean they will be accumulating based on their respective Philosophy towards OCA.

its the opportunity cost for long term investors under water

[Greekwatchdog]

its the opportunity cost for long term investors under water

Again you are only under water if you sell at a lost.

We shall see who is laughing in 12/18 months...

[bull....]

Again you are only under water if you sell at a lost.

We shall see who is laughing in 12/18 months...

i think your missing the point of opportunity cost. meaning if OCA fails to generate div's , cap gains in the future or even if does and these end up being minimal return each yr you will look back in hindsight and go i could have earnt more being in a term deposit say for example. you have to calc the what ifs when underwater

[Entrep]

bull is there a price/chart pattern you would buy OCA?

[Greekwatchdog]

i think your missing the point of opportunity cost. meaning if OCA fails to generate div's , cap gains in the future or even if does and these end up being minimal return each yr you will look back in hindsight and go i could have earnt more being in a term deposit say for example. you have to calc the what ifs when underwater

I knew thats what you meant.

Let me tell you something, my Accountant has those details on a spreadsheet he reminds me of each month what I am missing out on re term deposits, however as a Long Term Investor I personally believe I will make more in the long run...Philosophy hmm

After all if I had listened to my Accountant years ago when I invested in ATM I wouldn't have what I have today and they never paid a divvie...So I was well up on any Term Deposit

[bull....]

bull is there a price/chart pattern you would buy OCA?

not at the moment , but at some stage im sure it will become oversold for a short term bounce and if that means good buying as a long term investment i dont know as i cant predict the property market or peoples choices in life.

[bull....]

I knew thats what you meant.

Let me tell you something, my Accountant has those details on a spreadsheet he reminds me of each month what I am missing out on re term deposits, however as a Long Term Investor I personally believe I will make more in the long run...Philosophy hmm

After all if I had listened to my Accountant years ago when I invested in ATM I wouldn't have what I have today and they never paid a divvie...So I was well up on any Term Deposit

yep thats your choice in any investment. we can all make mistakes and have winners i make them everyday lol but at the end of the day its the balance of your winners vrs losers and the bottom line result we all live with. end of story

[Greekwatchdog]

yep thats your choice in any investment. we can all make mistakes and have winners i make them everyday lol but at the end of the day its the balance of your winners vrs losers and the bottom line result we all live with. end of story

Exactly trading philosophies Bull. Who cares if on paper if SR and VNZ are underwater. or any other long term investor for that matter. Only matters when you sell

[bull....]

Exactly trading philosophies Bull. Who cares if on paper if SR and VNZ are underwater. or any other long term investor for that matter. Only matters when you sell

lol you dont get it
opp cost man
i rest my case

[mistaTea]

lol you dont get it
opp cost man
i rest my case

Yeah opportunity cost is massive.

Never gets accounted anywhere, but the cost is very very real.

[Greekwatchdog]

lol you dont get it
opp cost man
i rest my case

I do my accountant tells me all about it.

[Greekwatchdog]

Yeah opportunity cost is massive.

Never gets accounted anywhere, but the cost is very very real.

Depends if your smart to calculate these things, that my accountants job as he loves doing it for me then I just remind him so he pulls hid head in a little to check ATM spreadsheet.

I guess you had the issue that Bulls talking about with SKY TV. Hard lesson for you I guess.

[mistaTea]

Depends if your smart to calculate these things, that my accountants job as he loves doing it for me then I just remind him so he pulls hid head in a little to check ATM spreadsheet.

I guess you had the issue that Bulls talking about with SKY TV. Hard lesson for you I guess.

Yes, opportunity cost for me over that time was huge.

A very hard lesson to learn. But pain is the best teacher sometimes.

[Greekwatchdog]

Yes, opportunity cost for me over that time was huge.

A very hard lesson to learn. But pain is the best teacher sometimes.

Quite true. Apologies wasn't rubbing it in, just used it as an example as I liked your analysis of SKY and how you explained your Thesis.

[Maverick]

One in the same, or father & son duo?

Anyway. Has anyone considered this price trend is simply the inverse of an index pop like TRA/HLG? Different dynamics, with this an exclusion, and if true an exclusion from the MSCI index not NZX50. But let's test out some logic.

Traders and instos become aware of the exclusion. They start selling down portions of their shares, swamping the retail buyside, in full anticipation the SP will fall. This situation further exacerbated by Ryman's profit warning. The actual index funds most likely not the sellers - they tend to operate in the final closing match and adjust session before exclusion.

The final closing match operates like a book build for the index funds needing to exit and same traders and instos that had been selling down. Lots of tranches at varying share prices for both the buy and sell side entered, big demand from the instos as a rare opportunity to buy a very large stake at artificially depressed prices, closing match algorithm closes at a price that produces in the highest volume sold.

The index exclusion selling pressure finishes. would have thought normal buy side returns and people start considering the price to NTA which is at incredibly low levels. Probably some profit taking after the first leg up and traders stag their shares. then mkt just does its thing.

Anyway - just wild musings. who knows?

The rumored 30m shares seems like an awful lot. For reference the TRA/HLG nzx50 inclusions were 2.5-3% of shares outstanding, 30m would be over 4%. but i've got no idea what is normal for MSCI index inclusions/exclusions & how shares are individually weighted.
Excellent post Muse….there’s definitely a style of intentional price control going on for the last 3 weeks. Your ideas seem to playing out as you've tabled . Seems very logical to me. Only got 4 trading days to go.

Thanks too Ballance for those companies excluded last year. Ive graphed them plus TRA , HLG too.
Im very comfortable now that within 2-14 days after exclusions the SP revert reliably to whatever it used to sit at. In OCAs case that’s 71-75c . Looks like an easy opportunity for some loose cash.

Of note was the SUM exclusion last year. Got sold down quite some and 2 weeks later it fully reverted started it decent assent based on actual company performance once again.

I also see WHS SP trading very similar to OCA as it too is being dropped…..in 2 weeks this should all be reverted as if nothing happened.

Looking ahead a few weeks ahead from here when OCA SP will be valued once again according to it’s business, there has been NO reason for me to change any expections of a very solid second half result coming up. I’m still seeing $1.00-$1.10 mid year on a PE of about 9-10

[mistaTea]

Quite true. Apologies wasn't rubbing it in, just used it as an example as I liked your analysis of SKY and how you explained your Thesis.

No offence taken. And sky was not the only example of opportunity cost for me, but def the most public.

All well documented on the SKT forum, but the lessons learnt have paid in dividends since. And of the lessons I learned, one is that it is more profitable long term to not think I know more than Mr Market.

That has to be the starting point I think.

[Greekwatchdog]

No offence taken. And sky was not the only example of opportunity cost for me, but def the most public.

All well documented on the SKT forum, but the lessons learnt have paid in dividends since the lessons learned. And of the lessons I learned is that it is more profitable long term to not think I know more than Mr Market.

That has to be the starting point I think.

Point taken about Mr Market, but I trust my own analysis and research. I prefer to fall on my own sword rather than someone else's. My money in the end.

[Entrep]

I also see WHS SP trading very similar to OCA as it too is being dropped…..in 2 weeks this should all be reverted as if nothing happened.



WHS has very valid reasons to be rekt right now

[mistaTea]

Point taken about Mr Market, but I trust my own analysis and research. I prefer to fall on my own sword rather than someone else's. My money in the end.

Yes, that is all to the good - and I am not indicating that we do not need to do any analysis/research and just blindly accept the current SP when deciding what to buy.

Best to just index if that is the case.

But understanding that Mr Market is often on the money for an approximation of what a business is currently worth is liberating I feel.

So, with respect to OCA... it is not about being smarter than everyone else per se...

You do your research etc and then you might end up saying something like... "I can see why the business is currently valued somewhere in the vicinity of $400M- $450M. That is the fair value today due to x-y-z reasoning, however due to my special insight into the industry etc, I am confident that the business will be worth $2B in x number of years. These are my assumptions, this is my rationale. So I am happy to pay what is probably a fair market value today of $420M because of what I think OCA will be worth in the future".

Versus "Everyone is a dumbarse, OCA is totes worth at least a bil today if not more. What muppets, anyone who can't see OCA is ON SALE today is a moron".

For one thing, finding truly undervalued/mispriced stocks in this day and age is very diffcult because they are so rare (Buffett, Munger et al have admitted this). And for another, that kind of thinking muddies your thinking over time and you end up viewing your investment less and less objectively over time - which can be costly (either in realised losses, opportunity cost of both).

I see this as a fine tuning of my thinking, and if nothing else - it is a much more peaceful way of investing!

[Maverick]

WHS has very valid reasons to be rekt right now

Check out the turnover in conjunction with the SP. ...matches nicely despite today's $1 torpedo sale . To my eye it's the same chart and today's announcement seems irrelevant at this moment.

[Greekwatchdog]

Yes, that is all to the good - and I am not indicating that we do not need to do any analysis/research and just blindly accept the current SP when deciding what to buy.

Best to just index if that is the case.

But understanding that Mr Market is often on the money for an approximation of what a business is currently worth is liberating I feel.

So, with respect to OCA... it is not about being smarter than everyone else per se...

You do your research etc and then you might end up saying something like... "I can see why the business is currently valued somewhere in the vicinity of $400M- $450M. That is the fair value today, however due to my special insight into the industry etc, I am confident that the business will be worth $2B in x number of years. These are my assumptions, this is my rationale. So I am happy to pay what is probably a fair market value today of $420M because of what I think OCA will be worth in the future".

Versus "Everyone is a dumbarse, OCA is totes worth at least a bil today if not more. What muppets, anyone who can't see OCA is ON SALE today is a moron".

For one thing, finding truly undervalued/mispriced stocks in this day and age is very diffcult because they are so rare (Buffett, Munger et al have admitted this). And for another, that kind of thinking muddies your thinking over time and you end up viewing your investment less and less objectively over time - which can be costly (either in realised losses, opportunity cost of both).

I see this as a fine tuning of my thinking, and if nothing else - it is a much more peaceful way of investing!

Absolutely. And I am very happy to keep accumulating at these levels for the next week.

In the end OCA Board/Management need to deliver before Mr Market re prices this. 3 months we shall find out unless the stun investors with an update.

****e, Best I have some toilet paper handy just in case that ever happens..

[Flugenbear]

RYM recently posted a pretty ugly trading update which sent the SP tumbling. I can't see OCA posting a positive update in any shape of form.
I'm wondering how much of that us factored into the current SP.

[alokdhir]

No amount of real analysis or even forensic level accounting by many experts have managed to nail this dog ...it keeps going down and down for no apparent reason but for sector malaise and its underperform nature

But there comes a time that even a weak dog needs fight back ...seems like we need now guess work ...$ 1 before 50 Cents ?

Remember Bull said once $ 1 before $ 2 when it was trading around $ 1.50 ....now here we are ....not all his predictions come true but this did more then required

[ValueNZ]

Im very comfortable now that within 2-14 days after exclusions the SP revert reliably to whatever it used to sit at. In OCAs case that’s 71-75c . Looks like an easy opportunity for some loose cash.

Of note was the SUM exclusion last year. Got sold down quite some and 2 weeks later it fully reverted started it decent assent based on actual company performance once again.

I also see WHS SP trading very similar to OCA as it too is being dropped…..in 2 weeks this should all be reverted as if nothing happened.
Sorry Maverick, there is no possible way you can say with such confidence that within 2 weeks Oceania's share price will go up ~25% just because SUM did after their index exclusion (actually don't know but I'll take your word for it).

That would be the easiest trade ever, buy now sell in two weeks and earn a return 2.5x that of the average SP500 return...

[Perky]

RYM recently posted a pretty ugly trading update which sent the SP tumbling. I can't see OCA posting a positive update in any shape of form.
I'm wondering how much of that us factored into the current SP.

Remember SUM report on Monday. Their last sales update was pretty good. If that trend continues might put a floor under OCA and give clarity if RYM issues are company and timing specific.

Lots of negative noise in market at present, Rym poor sales, anz saying interest rates going up, index rebalancing, slow residential sales to start year.

I think we all know what OCA need to do…sell more stock.

Im hearing and seeing more OCA advertising so I guess their trying. Problem is the business run by bean counters who don’t communicate how sales are going very often…so market left to drift in between their reports.

Next week we’ll get some certainty with Sum update, ocr decision and get the index rebalancing thingy done.




I’ve starting buying again at 0.57c…might of shot my load a bit early with index rebalance to come but have some more ammunition in the chamber just in case OCA hits the rocks and sinks some more next week but happy to accumulate anywhere in mid to low 0.50s as a long term hold.

Also starting to wonder at what stage some consolidation or M &A activity in this sector.

[Balance]

Sorry Maverick, there is no possible way you can say with such confidence that within 2 weeks Oceania's share price will go up ~25% just because SUM did after their index exclusion (actually don't know but I'll take your word for it).

That would be the easiest trade ever, buy now sell in two weeks and earn a return 2.5x that of the average SP500 return...

All things being equal, I believe Mav’s assessment is a fair assumption. It is a case of supply exceeding demand at a particular period/point in time. Likewise, demand exceeds supply when a stock is included in the index.

But all things are not equal however, stock to stock.

It also depends on whether there’s any developments, positive or negative, post the indexing change.

So do be careful!

[winner69]

Metlife half year results out

Huge operating loss ($32m) and cash burn. Hope Oceania not doing this bad …. But you worry when Metlife are also going through transformation …in their case towards Full Potential

They said -

The increase in operating revenue was due to growth in deferred
management fees from resales and new development village sales, higher care and village fees. The decrease in the total revenue is due to a lower gain in fair value movement on investment properties compared to the previous reporting period.

The loss from continuing operations and the total net loss can be attributed to the lower gain, in addition to significant investment in employee, property, digital and other expenses.



http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/426700/413249.pdf

[bull....]

Metlife half year results out

Huge operating loss ($32m) and cash burn. Hope Oceania not doing this bad …. But you worry when Metlife are also going through transformation …in their case towards Full Potential

They said -

The increase in operating revenue was due to growth in deferred
management fees from resales and new development village sales, higher care and village fees. The decrease in the total revenue is due to a lower gain in fair value movement on investment properties compared to the previous reporting period.

The loss from continuing operations and the total net loss can be attributed to the lower gain, in addition to significant investment in employee, property, digital and other expenses.



http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MET/426700/413249.pdf


cash crunch time :scared: who will survive ? If ORR raises OCR :scared: more losses coming for OCA

[winner69]

cash crunch time :scared: who will survive ? If ORR raises OCR :scared: more losses coming for OCA

Bull ….Metlife debt ratio gone from 32% a year ago to 35% in June 23 to current 38%

OCA was about 38% last Sept ….

…..probably now about 40% …..that’s RYM disaster levels

But let’s wait and see eh

[Perky]

You worry a lot Bull for someone who does not own any OCA…you should let us actual shareholders do the worrying and enjoy your life.

They will all survive…Essential service…looking after the oldies.
These places taking the heat off the govt. Winny will look after the oldies….

If you pay tax…you’ll be helping pay via govt contributions if the cash crunch arrives. May as well hold some shares lol

[Entrep]

I see a CR as the greatest risk to OCA price in the short-term

[bull....]

You worry a lot Bull for someone who does not own any OCA…you should let us actual shareholders do the worrying and enjoy your life.

They will all survive…Essential service…looking after the oldies.
These places taking the heat off the govt. Winny will look after the oldies….

If you pay tax…you’ll be helping pay via govt contributions if the cash crunch arrives. May as well hold some shares lol

you need differing views to balance the ramps of holders who are one eyed in there views. i personally welcome any view of a company even when i hold it as it could give me some info i missed in my thinking.

i have been a stock holder in OCA many times

[ronaldson]

I thought the MET half year reporting to 31 December was quite a positive update in the current economic climate.

Since then the main facility at Orion Point in Hobsonville, Auckland, has opened and I intend to schedule a visit in the near future. I made an early stage visit some months ago and it is a lovely location and quality offering, albeit pricey.

MET intend to deliver over 300 units and care beds in FY24 so development spend is ongoing and they also purchased Springlands Lifestyle Village and a co-located care facility in Blenheim to add to the portfolio. The announcement signals clearly they intend to keep their foot on the pedal, which is a sign of confidence.

Despite some commentary above I think optimism should prevail over pessimism for the sector generally, but that doesnt translate to immediate returns and patience will be a requirement.