OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[warren]

Macquarie Group announces $A2,557 million full year profit

They are not short of a bob! I believe they will hold OCA for quite some time/years until they have a real incentive ($) to sell . As it is they are making --what?-- 4.5% on their money plus-- what?--- 29% CG-..... geez imagine that for 5 years.
gee I like this little share.

[trader_jackson]

Share price down to $1.09 - scary stuff... maybe that $1.14 was as good as it gets for now?
Don't want this to fall into the arvida trap... consistently solid operational and financial results, yet share price moves nowhere.

[dubya]

I recently brought back in taking my average cost per share up a bit.
Earl Gasparich impressed me at the presentation I attended late last year.
Chair,Elizabeth Coutts has impressed me for a number of years as an Ebos director.
Director Gregory Tomlinson has impressed me as a major shareholder/director of HBL.He has a proven history in the retirement sector and has real "skin on the line" with OCA.
As OCA gets more runs on the board I expect I will add to my modest holding.

I went to the same presentation at The Chateau on the Park in Christchurch last year. There were presentations from two other company CEO's / CFO's as well.
Before the presentation started I went to the toilet. When I walked on there was a ‘youngish’ looking gentleman dressed in a suit washing his hands, straightening his tie, and checking his appearance in the mirror. I had no idea who he was but I guessed he was involved with Craig's Partners who had organised the event.
When it was time for the OCA presentation it was given by Earl Gasparich, and he was the person I had seen earlier. He was the only presenter to wear a suit. In my experience, while the cut of the cloth doesn’t always make a man, I have often found people who pay attention to their appearance and presentation; that is often reflected in the detail with which they run their affairs and business.
In any case, I was really impressed with his passion for OCA. He spoke clearly, directly and articulately. When he was asked a question from the floor, “what keeps you awake at night”? His response of ‘a patient being given the wrong medication’ IMHO was right on the money. It would have been easy for a rhetorical type answer of something along the lines of ‘not adding shareholder value’.
Anyway, I’m not sure why I’ve written all this, but I was so suitably impressed I subsequently quadrupled my holding. It is now the largest holding I have in a single company.
While I don’t hold warrens myopic views (I do enjoy reading his comments though :) ) whether the growth comes now or later, I’m content to keep getting the Government Guaranteed dividend twice a year in the meantime while I wait. I can think of far worse places to park my money.

[percy]

Thanks dubya.
Yes that was the presentation.Excellent write up thank you.OCA may be a good fit for NZ Super Fund or IFT.to take a good holding in.?
I was also impressed with MEL's presentation,since added to ,but thought AIA was a share to avoid.

[Beagle]

I went to the same presentation at The Chateau on the Park in Christchurch last year. There were presentations from two other company CEO's / CFO's as well.
Before the presentation started I went to the toilet. When I walked on there was a ‘youngish’ looking gentleman dressed in a suit washing his hands, straightening his tie, and checking his appearance in the mirror. I had no idea who he was but I guessed he was involved with Craig's Partners who had organised the event.
When it was time for the OCA presentation it was given by Earl Gasparich, and he was the person I had seen earlier. He was the only presenter to wear a suit. In my experience, while the cut of the cloth doesn’t always make a man, I have often found people who pay attention to their appearance and presentation; that is often reflected in the detail with which they run their affairs and business.
In any case, I was really impressed with his passion for OCA. He spoke clearly, directly and articulately. When he was asked a question from the floor, “what keeps you awake at night”? His response of ‘a patient being given the wrong medication’ IMHO was right on the money. It would have been easy for a rhetorical type answer of something along the lines of ‘not adding shareholder value’.
Anyway, I’m not sure why I’ve written all this, but I was so suitably impressed I subsequently quadrupled my holding. It is now the largest holding I have in a single company.
While I don’t hold warrens myopic views (I do enjoy reading his comments though :) ) whether the growth comes now or later, I’m content to keep getting the Government Guaranteed dividend twice a year in the meantime while I wait. I can think of far worse places to park my money.

Top post, many thanks for sharing. I agree and notice an increasing tendency for directors to not bother wearing a tie at annual meetings which I think is pretty poor form.

[percy]

Top post, many thanks for sharing. I agree and notice an increasing tendency for directors to not bother wearing a tie at annual meetings which I think is pretty poor form.

Mainfreight's Don Baird is most probably still NZ's best dressed CEO with or without a tie.
Still wearing ties...????.Come on....
Last time I wore one was at a funeral,6 weeks ago.Looked out of place with it....lol.

[dobby41]

I agree and notice an increasing tendency for directors to not bother wearing a tie at annual meetings which I think is pretty poor form.

I wouldn't judge a person too much by what they wear - hustlers are always the best dressed ;)

[Beagle]

Mainfreight's Don Baird is most probably still NZ's best dressed CEO with or without a tie.
Still wearing ties...????.Come on....
Last time I wore one was at a funeral,6 weeks ago.Looked out of place with it....lol.

Shows the slippery slope we've gone down in terms of informality. I usually still wear one to important client meetings.

[dobby41]

Shows the slippery slope we've gone down in terms of informality. I usually still wear one to important client meetings.

Shows the changing times.
Go ways back and they would have been saying the same sorts of things in only having a tie rather than wig etc.

[winner69]

Dubya ..... , I’m content to keep getting the Government Guaranteed dividend twice a year in the meantime -

Your divie mainly comes from running and selling units , not from care activities

The care bit (the Government money) wouldnt give you a divie or if it did a very tiny one

You been listening to Warren too much about all this government
money.

That’s how I see it anyway

[trader_jackson]

Your divie mainly comes from running and selling units , not from care activities

The care bit (the Government money) wouldnt give you a divie or if it did a very tiny one

You been listening to Warren too much about all this government
money.

That’s how I see it anyway

But they don't get any cash flow when they are building those units? In fact the opposite happens (in a big way usually)
I also didn't think they made much of a profit on the 'running' of them either...
Those care activities keep cash coming through the door at least
Whether it is that profitable is another question

[winner69]

But they don't get any cash flow when they are building those units? In fact the opposite happens (in a big way usually)
I also didn't think they made much of a profit on the 'running' of them either...
Those care activities keep cash coming through the door at least
Whether it is that profitable is another question

Those care activities keep cash coming through the door at least .......and it goes out just as fast .....into wages and all those running costs eh

[Baa_Baa]

Your divie mainly comes from running and selling units , not from care activities

The care bit (the Government money) wouldnt give you a divie or if it did a very tiny one

You been listening to Warren too much about all this government
money.

That’s how I see it anyway

Don't forget that the government doesn't pay for everyones care, accomodation etc at these facilities.

Lots of folks that need care who end up in 'homes', or go directly into 'care' facilities are spending their own money, and it's bloody expensive, and often it can go on for a long long long time often until the private money runs out, then and only then does the government step in. Don't forget either that the 'rest homes' cater for the wealthy who can afford care, or the destitute who cannot, and those in the middle who have little choice spend whatever they have left before the government will help.

This is not specific to OCA, it's generic to the sector. Sadly it's commonly thought that a care provider cannot sustain it's business on solely the income of the government or the 'resident', when patently it can, there's heaps of smaller care providers who do. The smaller players just can't do it and be making obscene profits and paying out shareholders unless it has a successful property business underpinning it's care model.

That differentiates the sector. Either way, the resident whether rich or not spends whatever they have left before the government chips in a single cent.

[dabsman]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321282

Boom - say goodbye to the current price levels. $1.20 at close tonight?

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321282

Boom - say goodbye to the current price levels. $1.20 at close tonight? Fantastic result and bullish outlook and unlike SUM others it's still cheap.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321282

Boom - say goodbye to the current price levels. $1.20 at close tonight?

.....and $1.30 by end of next week

Even though we learnt nothing new today

[King1212]

looking good!! Was going to buy more yesterday...but got distracted ...

[percy]

A stunner.
Great outlook in a sector with strong tail winds.

[BobbyMorocco]

Even though we learnt nothing new today

Not sure about that? Build rate for the coming years has been increased significantly has it not?

I was expecting FY19 to be relatively quiet on the development front, with an increase in FY20. Not so now with them planning to deliver 270 odd units this year. Double what they produced last year. I'm pleasantly surprised by this :)

[Valiant]

Great result, happy to continue holding this one. Good to see the build rate increasing in the coming years.
Will look to grab a few more when I can.

[cymonger]

Great result. Sometimes the art is in presenting old information as if it is new. Perception goes a long way. I think this is one we will be really glad to have gotten in so early on in a few years.

[winner69]

Great result. Sometimes the art is in in presenting old information as if it is new. Perception goes a long way. I think this is one we will be really glad to have gotten in so early on in a few years.

Sometimes the art is in in presenting old information as if it is new. Perception goes a long way.

So true cymonger

Today’s presentation is stunningly good ....hope it’s oerceived that way by the likes of Forbar eh

[warren]

[QUOTE=Baa_Baa;722391]Don't forget that the government doesn't pay for everyones care, accomodation etc at these facilities.

Hello Baa. Thanks you for your input. Well my research says the government is rather generous in its payment for care. It pays approx $1140 for care per week and $1489 per week for hospital care (these are very unwell/elderly folks, terminal, and there is a tidal wave coming, me included). And lets not even mention trusts!!!!!!!!!!! or should I say rorts??
So here are some stats from the Department. Also a ring to any of the good care resorts will tell you approx 90% of the care income comes directly from the government---on time and without fail---Facts I could only dream about when I was in business. I accept low margins in this area of care but in hard times it will do me(investor) given brilliant, well dressed :), budget conscious and honest leadership.

Asset thresholds

If you’re 65 years or over, the value of your assets must be equal to or below the threshold for your circumstances.
Single or have a partner in care
The total value of your combined assets must be $227,125 or less if you either:



don’t have a partner
have a partner who is also in long-term residential care.

Have a partner not in care
If you have a partner who is not in care, you can choose whether the total value of your combined assets is either:


$124,379, not including the value of your house and car
$227,125, including the value of your house and car.

Your house is only exempt from the financial means assessment when it is the principal place of residence of the partner who is not in care, or a dependent child.

[winner69]

Warren, oca today said 80% of care income is govt funded

[warren]

Warren, oca today said 80% of care income is govt funded

Payment Facts I could only dream about Winner, when I was in business !!!!!

[winner69]

Hopefully today and next week will be a very rewarding time

OCA hasn’t been much of investment of late

Now is for the time hype to turn into dollars and time to stuff this perceived overhang

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/321282/283328.pdf

First Impressions:-
Solid result slightly beating underlying profit forecast. I get 8.54 cps underlying against IPO forecast of 8.43 cps...so highly credible and a solid effort but not stunning in my opinion.

Outlook:-
Increased build rate, note that the build rate for FY19 is more than double FY18. This augers very well for profit growth.
Note also the embedded value of each unit is around $170K vs $120K per IPO forecast. This also is highly encouraging for future profit growth.
Delivering developments on time and on budget is no mean feat, (its actually incredibly hard in the Auckland market especially).

I need to do a lot more work on my forecast for FY19 but at this stage its fair to say I think we can look forward to quite significant underlying profit growth in 2019 mostly driven by the dramatic uplift in build rate FY19 compared to FY18.

Opinion:-
Rome wasn't built in a day but I really like the way these guys are laying the foundations...

[winner69]

F19 underlying earnings should be about $85to $90m shouldn’t they ...if not more

[winner69]

Maybe the RYM:OCA share price ratio will get back to that 10:1 ratio again

That be good

[Beagle]

F19 underlying earnings should be about $85to $90m shouldn’t they ...if not more


The bean counting hound was slow out of the blocks this morning. Get my snout into this properly, shortly, and should have a forecast later today.
At very first glance I get about $75 -$80m based on development build uplift alone. Then there's resales at higher embedded value...I'll probably get to where you are but need another coffee and some more time to think about it first :) Heck even if they get to my first glance mid point estimate that's 12.6 cps underlying and put a PE of 13 on that and we're off to the races...

Update. Key assumptions in my FY19 forecast. Doubling of build rate gives doubling of development profit, gives $21m uplift, (assume margins the same).
Resale underlying profit to increase in line with embedded value, assume same number of resales) gives $3.5m uplift in underlying profit.
This gives circa $24.5m uplift and suggests 52.1m plus 24.5m = $76.6m.

Sticking with $75-80m underlying profit forecast at this stage, about 12.6 cps underlying and on a PE of 13 this suggests to me a price target of ~ $1.64 12 months out is not unrealisdtic. Stock is presently been held back in a major way by the Macquarie overhang in my opinion. Once we get clarity on that it could really pop, Need to look at balance sheet and funding costs next noting the very strong cash flow over the last year. Disc: Topped up some more on the open this morning at $1.15

[King1212]

The bean counting hound was slow out of the blocks this morning. Get my snout into this properly, shortly, and should have a forecast later today.
At very first glance I get about $75 -$80m based on development build uplift alone. Then there's resales at higher embedded value...I'll probably get to where you are but need another coffee and some more time to think about it first :) Heck even if they get to my first glance mid point estimate that's 12.6 cps underlying and put a PE of 13 on that and we're off to the races...

Update. Key assumptions in my FY19 forecast. Doubling of build rate gives doubling of development profit, gives $21m uplift, (assume margins the same).

Looking forward for your thoughts after well deserved coffee break Beagle!:t_up:

[Joshuatree]

Payment Facts I could only dream about Winner, when I was in business !!!!!

Tell you what with re $1200 a week every week of the year(monthly) coming out to look after a relative in care it sure is a GREAT cashflow for the carers and i dont like being in a minority but thats the way it is, with no hidden assets and am just a little proud about that.

[percy]

Well at 9.45 am this morning when I placed my buy order "at open", it looked as though I would be paying $1.12 per share.In fact I ended up paying $1.15.
Happy at that.

[whatsup]

Well at 9.45 am this morning when I placed my buy order "at open", it looked as though I would be paying $1.12 per share.In fact I ended up paying $1.15.
Happy at that.

Makes yesterdays buyers who had the goulies @ $1.09 look top of class this morning .

[Beagle]

F19 underlying earnings should be about $85to $90m shouldn’t they ...if not more

I am sticking with $75-80m for now. I think it could surprise to the upside of that range but I would rather err on the side of conservatism at this stage mate. At $80m underlying this would give a 80/52.1m = 53.6% increase in underlying EPS to 13.1 cps. I'll let you do the maths if the market decides given this growth and the very robust long term outlook with strong demographic tailwinds that a multiple of 14 times underlying earnings is appropriate this time next year :) Possibly worth noting that the shares currently trade cum a 2.6 cps dividend so one isn't really paying $1.16 for next years earnings, just $1.134 putting the stock on a forward PE of just 8.6...interestingly that's about where it floated too cheaply last year.

I remain of the view that once Macquarie's have clarified their position this has very strong potential to outperform over the year ahead.

[Joshuatree]

Its full steam in Tauranga with a $250 million eco friendly retirement village all go in papamoa. Generus Living Group who already have a 250 house village are just about to start the new 350 house village. I Like the environmental theme . solar power, , composting, commercial climate controlled glasshouse, market garden, fruit trees , charging bays etc. take note OCA,RYM,SUM etc you are behind the trend.

[Beagle]

Its full steam in Tauranga with a $250 million eco friendly retirement village all go in papamoa. Generus Living Group who already have a 250 house village are just about to start the new 350 house village. I Like the environmental theme . solar power, , composting, commercial climate controlled glasshouse, market garden, fruit trees , charging bays etc. take note OCA,RYM,SUM etc you are behind the trend.

Do they offer the full continuum of care including hospital and dementia care and have they earned a stellar reputation over a long period of time for excellent care ? If they don't do all the basics extremely well, (I have no knowledge either way) the environmental stuff is just a creative way to appear to be caring for the environment when I put it to you all that REALLY matters for people at this stage of their life is the quality of the facilities and care. They all have gardens and a pleasant environment.
Could it just be that the eco side to this village is just a marketing gimmick ?

[Nasi Goreng]

I am sticking with $75-80m for now. I think it could surprise to the upside of that range but I would rather err on the side of conservatism at this stage mate. At $80m underlying this would give a 80/52.1m = 53.6% increase in underlying EPS to 13.1 cps. I'll let you do the maths if the market decides given this growth and the very robust long term outlook with strong demographic tailwinds that a multiple of 14 times underlying earnings is appropriate this time next year :) Possibly worth noting that the shares currently trade cum a 2.6 cps dividend so one isn't really paying $1.16 for next years earnings, just $1.134 putting the stock on a forward PE of just 8.6...interestingly that's about where it floated too cheaply last year.

I remain of the view that once Macquarie's have clarified their position this has very strong potential to outperform over the year ahead.

You don't think there is anyone out there with $250M who would buy a stock with a forward PE of 8.6 with huge tailwinds? I don't see this like a large cap dog where a large shareholder is going to dump the stock at any minute. More like there will be a hungry placement done off market... Macquarie will know what they are doing.

[Joshuatree]

Do they offer the full continuum of care including hospital and dementia care and have they earned a stellar reputation over a long period of time for excellent care ? If they don't do all the basics extremely well, (I have no knowledge either way) the environmental stuff is just a creative way to appear to be caring for the environment when I put it to you all that REALLY matters for people at this stage is the quality of the facilities and care.

Its more than creative its reducing their carbon footprint as we all should be(like your tree planting)
I will find out what they will actually be composting.:(

[Beagle]

You don't think there is anyone out there with $250M who would buy a stock with a forward PE of 8.6 with huge tailwinds? I don't see this like a large cap dog where a large shareholder is going to dump the stock at any minute. More like there will be a hungry placement done off market... Macquarie will know what they are doing.

I couldn't agree more. I think there will be very robust demand for any potential placement organised off market, especially if its at a slight discount to the current market price. I for one would really appreciate the opportunity to double down at say $1.10 in any possible placement.

[Food4Thought]

.... if this share price increase carries on... may be the first time I am involved in a "speeding" ticket I am happy about...

Can't wait for the news stories/research to come out

[Joshuatree]

Well at 9.45 am this morning when I placed my buy order "at open", it looked as though I would be paying $1.12 per share.In fact I ended up paying $1.15.
Happy at that.

You've used up the house money and taken out a mortgage for this?. Good idea:t_up:

[Beagle]

You've used up the house money and taken out a mortgage for this?. Good idea:t_up:


EPS growth of 53% would indicate 6.3% gross forecast dividend yield for the year ahead which would make any leveraged position taken using a first mortgage self funding...just saying.

[Joshuatree]

What are you saying that im right and you are more right lol

[44wishlists]

So now RYM, SUM and OCA have been reported accordingly. Do we think the 10:5:1 ratio still applies?

[percy]

You've used up the house money and taken out a mortgage for this?. Good idea:t_up:

Yes just about used up the old house money.Most probably now have the most boring portfolio I have ever had,with reasonable holdings in EBO,GNE,HBL,MCK,MEL,OCA,SPK and TRA.
Still have a few fun ones as well,PAZ [usx.co.nz],ALF,ERD,IKE and RBC.
Mortgage...No,I have been debt free for over 30 years.

[Maverick]

This result couldn't be better. The reason in my mind that the Pe is quite Low is the learned mistrust in private equity listings. Today's result clearly demonstrates moderately increased actual results (on forecasts) and on future growth too that the company is showing it can grow on its own two legs. This result shows Macquarie has not dressed up a dog to flog off.

As as far as the 58% overhang goes, I can't see why Macquarie would either sell at this price or sell at a discount. Surely selling a controlling stake sells at a Premium? Happy to be corrected by the lawyers and accountants out there but I thought people paid extra for control? I would.

[percy]

Makes yesterdays buyers who had the goulies @ $1.09 look top of class this morning .

Yesterday's buyers had a 50.50 chance of being right.
Today's buyers have a 100% chance of being right.
For me that is a no brainer.

[LAC]

Yes just about used up the old house money.Most probably now have the most boring portfolio I have ever had,with reasonable holdings in EBO,GNE,HBL,MCK,MEL,OCA,SPK and TRA.
Still have a few fun ones as well,PAZ [usx.co.nz],ALF,ERD,IKE and RBC.
Mortgage...No,I have been debt free for over 30 years.

Surprised you dont have SUM there. Cant wait for the day I can be mortgage free :)

[Beagle]

So now RYM, SUM and OCA have been reported accordingly. Do we think the 10:5:1 ratio still applies?


I'm going to go out on a limb here, (a very very short one because I know the answer lol). Couta1 when he gets back from skiing will be adamant that his theory still holds water perfectly...that's as safe an assumption as the sun coming up tomorrow morning lol. He will then go on to remind us yet again that SUM is overvalued...(I would say like a cracked record but we're good mates so I better not, hope he doesn't see this last bit lol)

[Joshuatree]

Hee, yes, i think i heard him hit a patch of ice and bounce off a tree just now:t_up:

[Chanchay]

Yesterday's buyers had a 50.50 chance of being right.
Today's buyers have a 100% chance of being right.
For me that is a no brainer.

I was one of those buyers (@1.10 rather than 1.09) after selling my PPH/ATM holding earlier in the week

Quite a nice return over the last 24 hours (especially if you annualise it!)

[percy]

I was one of those buyers (@1.10 rather than 1.09) after selling my PPH/ATM holding earlier in the week

Quite a nice return over the last 24 hours (especially if you annualise it!)

Great timing ,well done.

[percy]

Surprised you dont have SUM there. Cant wait for the day I can be mortgage free :)

I sold both my "free" holdings in SUM and RYM,together with my OCA, to buy the new house.
Only one I have brought back into and then added to, is OCA.
The reason is because of the dividend yield.
I don't know whether being mortgage/debt free is such a big deal today with low interest rates.
I just wanted financial independence.

[trader_jackson]

I was one of those buyers (@1.10 rather than 1.09) after selling my PPH/ATM holding earlier in the week

Quite a nice return over the last 24 hours (especially if you annualise it!)

I was one of those who brought on day 1 of listing just over a year ago at 81c... one of a few, as this thread shows.

Great results today - a nice bit ahead on all aspects.
Share price would be $1.20+ if Mr Market wasn't so fixate on the impending bigly macquarie dump...
Just do the block trade(s) already

[trader_jackson]

Share price down to $1.09 - scary stuff... maybe that $1.14 was as good as it gets for now?
Don't want this to fall into the arvida trap... consistently solid operational and financial results, yet share price moves nowhere.

Share price dropping now - could be back to $1.09, which is now, after today's release, absolutely for sure far too cheap.
I'll be buying if it gets below $1.10, probably buy more even if it doesn't

[Chinesekiwi]

I too topped up yesterday at $1.10.

I have tried to read as much info on this company as I can recently and have the right 'feel' for them and their business. Especially more so with the kind of directors they have on board.

Happy to hold long term and happy to top up along the way.


I was one of those buyers (@1.10 rather than 1.09) after selling my PPH/ATM holding earlier in the week

Quite a nice return over the last 24 hours (especially if you annualise it!)

[Beagle]

I was one of those who brought on day 1 of listing just over a year ago at 81c... one of a few, as this thread shows.

Great results today - a nice bit ahead on all aspects.
Share price would be $1.20+ if Mr Market wasn't so fixate on the impending bigly macquarie dump...
Just do the block trade(s) already


Share price dropping now - could be back to $1.09, which is now, after today's release, absolutely for sure far too cheap.
I'll be buying if it gets below $1.10, probably buy more even if it doesn't

I also started buying at 81 cps as the record on this thread will show, if anyone can be bothered reading back, and agree with your sentiments 100%.
Just get the placement over with already...

[Beagle]

I sold both my "free" holdings in SUM and RYM,together with my OCA, to buy the new house.
Only one I have brought back into and then added to, is OCA.
The reason is because of the dividend yield.
I don't know whether being mortgage/debt free is such a big deal today with low interest rates.
I just wanted financial independence.

I am forecasting 6.3% gross dividend yield for FY19 which means this is the one to own if you want to be paid to enjoy future growth.
Despite the low interest rates that may or may not stay low indefinitely I remain of the view that one of the really important key foundations to enjoying a secure future is a debt free home. Debt is fine in your 30's 40's or maybe even to some extent your 50's but after that...

That said I did notice that the growth to be enjoyed in the years ahead is a free carry with this company if its funded by first mortgage. Something for the young ones to think about and a much better alternative than buying a rental property with all the risks involved with that, in my opinion.

[Joshuatree]

I also started buying at 81 cps as the record on this thread will show, if anyone can be bothered reading back, and agree with your sentiments 100%.
Just get the placement over with already...

There was a cynical roger who trash talked it until after listing comparing it with tegel and feltex but he saw the light.
Kudos to TJ for championing the stock.Foundation buyer here too.

[oldtech]

Seems to have settled down at $1.13 - at least for the time being.

I was also one (of many, it appears!) who topped up yesterday at $1.10.

[Beagle]

There was a cynical roger who trash talked it until after listing comparing it with tegel and feltex but he saw the light.
Kudos to TJ for championing the stock.Foundation buyer here too.

Their balance sheet was a mess back in 2014/5 and the IPO process was nearly 3 years in gestation. Who knows, maybe some of that "trash talk" might have had a small part to play in encouraging the company to purge its balance sheet prior to listing... Nonetheless the record shows I bought at 81 cps. Kudos to those like you that took the punt at the IPO price but there was extra risk with that strategy so you earned your slight extra return in my opinion. The record now shows the IPO projections were not the figment of PE imagination which de-risks the stock significantly further in my opinion.

Taking into account developments since listing I think the shares are at least as good value now , probably slightly better, as they were when they listed on a risk and forward earnings adjusted basis. The forward PE looks to be about the same as when it listed and the company now has a track record of doing what it says its going to do, therefore simple logic suggests this is better value than the projections from a brand new listing.

A very high degree of skepticism in regard to forecast results should be applied to all new listings (stood me in good stead over the years) in my opinion especially those floated by Private Equity. Now that uncertainty has been removed a prudent risk averse investor might like to increase their invested position like I have today.

Not too late for people to be in at close to the ground floor in my opinion. $2 should be easily achievable within 3-4 years in my opinion.

[Snow Leopard]

Posted: 10-Jul-17.
Last sale at $0.83: 20-Jun-17


I suppose inevitably I must fess up and admit I bought a few of these a while back at 83c mainly as a bit of an each way bet in this sector on the off chance they actually make their forecast target for FY18. Not a high conviction holding as you can see from the tone of this post but I have a few bob on this horse and it might run okay.

[Beagle]

Fair enough 83 cents it was, memory isn't always exact. Done okay but not as well as topping up SUM other company around the same time at just on $5 :)

[bull....]

It's a bit tiring when people are so gleeful
The price is going up everyday and they are rubbing it in

[dobby41]

I don't know whether being mortgage/debt free is such a big deal today with low interest rates.
I just wanted financial independence.

What are mortages?
So long ago I can't remember what they look like :t_up:

[Maverick]

What are mortages?
So long ago I can't remember what they look like :t_up:

There is a wave of significant selling hitting the market. I`m wondering whether its a piece of the Macquarie iceberg being let go? Again, I really don't think they will sell at these levels but someone is keen to unload.

[winner69]

There is a wave of significant selling hitting the market. I`m wondering whether its a piece of the Macquarie iceberg being let go? Again, I really don't think they will sell at these levels but someone is keen to unload.

In theory Macquarie can’t start selling until the first day after the release of the results

It’ll be somebody else selling

I doubt that they would ever drip feed them onto the market

Punters think (and worry) too much

[Maverick]

It's just fun to watch the shenanigans of it all, trying to make sense of it. Just like watching a good chess game.
After this morning's result there is no worrying (but there was a little bit of thinking). This puppy is on its way for loads of years to come, absolutely no doubt about that.

[Beagle]

WOW $1.10 trading cum a 2.6 cent divvy after that result and with that outlook. Opportunity knocks !

[macduffy]

Punters think (and worry) too much

So true, winner. Especially on this thread!

;)

[Ggcc]

WOW $1.10 trading cum a 2.6 cent divvy after that result and with that outlook. Opportunity knocks !
I think we will see what Macquarie announce tomorrow when they are allowed to sell. I don’t see it as a worry as this is a long term investment for me

[Beagle]

Based on what I foresee I think they can approximately replicate this years 53% increase in underlying earnings growth next year.
That gives just over 13 cps for FY19. At theoretical ex divvy price of $1.074, (cum $1.10) that puts OCA on a forward PE of just 8.25 the cheapest they have ever traded on an earnings multiple basis, including the float price which at 79 cps was on a slightly higher multiple then.

If they maintain a 55% dividend payout ratio that suggests 7.2 cps in divvies next year and on $1.074 gives a gross yield of 6.7%.

What these numbers tell me is the market is pricing in massive level's of uncertainty regarding Macquarie's intentions. Once that matter is resolved this could pop in a similar manner to the way it did after the float.

Long term given the dynamics of this industry and the intrinsic strong tailwinds I think this is a truly outstanding long term investment opportunity at this level. It is trading on just one third of RYM's PE by way of comparative example and about half SUM's forward PE. The price doesn't make sense to me so I've done something more about it x 3 today.

[freddagg]

I would like to own some OCA but I don't touch Private Equity and because they still control Oceania the books are suspect.

[Beagle]

I would like to own some OCA but I don't touch Private Equity and because they still control Oceania the books are suspect.

As Joshuatree mentioned I was cynical early on but you've taken it to a new level calling into question the integrity of the independent directors the CEO and CFO who know these accounts will be audited. That's "next level" cynical in my opinion. I'm curious, If you're going to plumb those depth's of cynicism are you calling their increased build rate target's a load of "creative window dressing" too ?

[BlackPeter]

It's a bit tiring when people are so gleeful
The price is going up everyday and they are rubbing it in

If I have a choice, than I'd prefer gleeful over the gloom and doom some concealed bears are dropping all over some threads ...

But hey, just my personal preference :D;

[Beagle]

If I have a choice, than I'd prefer gleeful over the gloom and doom some concealed bears are dropping all over some threads ...

But hey, just my personal preference :D;

I can assure you that you're not the only one !!...anyway back to OCA http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fff127a7/oceania-healthcare-ceo-expects-macquarie-to-start-selling-down-controlling-stake.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Oceania%20Healthcare%20CEO%20expects% 20Macquarie%20to%20start%20selling%20down%20contro lling%20stake&utm_content=Oceania%20Healthcare%20CEO%20expects%2 0Macquarie%20to%20start%20selling%20down%20control ling%20stake+CID_e824819cb4ae6ad962d62a1e277467ff&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefff127a7oceani a-healthcare-ceo-expects-macquarie-to-start-selling-down-controlling-stakehtml

[Ggcc]

I can assure you that you're not the only one !!...anyway back to OCA http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fff127a7/oceania-healthcare-ceo-expects-macquarie-to-start-selling-down-controlling-stake.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Oceania%20Healthcare%20CEO%20expects% 20Macquarie%20to%20start%20selling%20down%20contro lling%20stake&utm_content=Oceania%20Healthcare%20CEO%20expects%2 0Macquarie%20to%20start%20selling%20down%20control ling%20stake+CID_e824819cb4ae6ad962d62a1e277467ff&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlefff127a7oceani a-healthcare-ceo-expects-macquarie-to-start-selling-down-controlling-stakehtml

There will be plenty of institutions looking at the figures hoping to buy those shares..... Maybe at a discount similar to when Infratil sold out of MetLife, maybe at a surplus.....

[winner69]

Shareprice up 2% on the day on pretty solid volumes

That’s pretty good

Tomorrow’s another day ....usually takes a day or two for the numbers to sink in so we’ll be ok

[freddagg]

As Joshuatree mentioned I was cynical early on but you've taken it to a new level calling into question the integrity of the independent directors the CEO and CFO who know these accounts will be audited. That's "next level" cynical in my opinion. I'm curious, If you're going to plumb those depth's of cynicism are you calling their increased build rate target's a load of "creative window dressing" too ?

Hi Beagle,
I am not casting aspersions at anyone in particular.
There is a fair body of opinion on this thread that the current share price should be higher and the point I am trying to make is that there may be many with similar views to mine that will be happy to wait until private equity no longer controls the company.

[Joshuatree]

Yep me too fredd;)

[BobbyMorocco]

Hi Beagle,
I am not casting aspersions at anyone in particular.
There is a fair body of opinion on this thread that the current share price should be higher and the point I am trying to make is that there may be many with similar views to mine that will be happy to wait until private equity no longer controls the company.

In my opinion these people are making a mistake. Private Equity has often done very well in NZ. Ryman, Summerset, Scales and NZ King Salmon all came from private equity. Imagine if you said soon after Ryman was listed "I don't touch private equity." Well you've been made to look a fool!

I'm sure this Macquarie thing is no big deal. In fact if you just keep your eye on the share price and don't worry about any news you may not even know when they sell down - that's how much impact I expect it to have.... zilch!

Check out what happened when Quadrant sold their last remaining 50 million shares of Summerset in October 2013. Shares traded at $3.14 when a trading halt was announced to let the sale proceed. The sale went through to local institutions at $3.10.

If you want to worry about something like that, go right ahead, but this result today tells me that this has the makings of being a wonderful investment opportunity for those who choose to get amongst it.

Disc: I doubled my holding today, so that this now represents 15% of my total portfolio and I plan on having every single share I own for a long long time!

[Beagle]

In my opinion these people are making a mistake. Private Equity has often done very well in NZ. Ryman, Summerset, Scales and NZ King Salmon all came from private equity. Imagine if you said soon after Ryman was listed "I don't touch private equity." Well you've been made to look a fool!

I'm sure this Macquarie thing is no big deal. In fact if you just keep your eye on the share price and don't worry about any news you may not even know when they sell down - that's how much impact I expect it to have.... zilch!

Check out what happened when Quadrant sold their last remaining 50 million shares of Summerset in October 2013. Shares traded at $3.14 when a trading halt was announced to let the sale proceed. The sale went through to local institutions at $3.10.

If you want to worry about something like that, go right ahead, but this result today tells me that this has the makings of being a wonderful investment opportunity for those who choose to get amongst it.

Disc: I doubled my holding today, so that this now represents 15% of my total portfolio and I plan on having every single share I own for a long long time!


Top marks for that post. I couldn't agree more and also approximately doubled my holding today and I have more dry powder if the price gets even sillier. I reckon the smart money was buying this afternoon at the rock bottom forward PE of about 8.2 at $1.10 knowing full well the huge overhang is effectively giving them a free lunch as long as they are patient holders. Pleased to say I had a decent piece of that action.

[limmy]

Surely a good time to buy must be when Macquarie starts to sell ?

[Chanchay]

Surely a good time to buy must be when Macquarie starts to sell ?

When an entity has such a signficant holding like this they will most likely sell to other large organisations so as to not flood the retail market. They have the most to lose if they flood the market with shares.

Neither large organisation (the buyer or seller) wants to fluff around buying small holdings when they can do so more efficiently privately and negotiate with one counterpart.

That's the way I see it anyway, we just saw something similar happen with Eliot Crowthers significant holding in Pushpay, a cool $100 million worth.

[Beagle]

I would like to own some OCA but I don't touch Private Equity and because they still control Oceania the books are suspect.


Hi Beagle,
I am not casting aspersions at anyone in particular.
There is a fair body of opinion on this thread that the current share price should be higher and the point I am trying to make is that there may be many with similar views to mine that will be happy to wait until private equity no longer controls the company.

Of course you're not casting aspersions against anyone in particular as that would be actionable but to allege the books are "suspect" is to effectively imply that there is the possibility that under instructions from Macquarie the company's accountant, CFO and CEO all colluded to produce a set of financial statements (that the directors have to sign off on so they must be in on it too) that are created to assist Macquarie to window dress any potential sell down process. All this pre-supposes that not only have they all colluded but they are all confident that the auditors won't pick up anything untoward. I for one think you are drawing a VERY long bow. I am not so naïve as to suggest that this is completely impossible but I think its highly unlikely. I get it that you don't like the fact that PE is still the major shareholder but as Bobby Morocco has pointed out not investing on that principle has cost others plenty with other floats in this sector. Each to their own investment methodology though but as foe me, I didn't get enough volume in the early days of RYM or SUM and certainly won't be making the same mistake again.

[Joshuatree]

Keeping some powder for an opp if the sell down happens, there is a chance of averaging down , no drama or worrying going on anywhere i can see, so we will see limmy and fredd, im prepared.

[bull....]

OCEANIA HEALTHCARE CEO EXPECTS MACQUARIE TO START SELLING DOWN CONTROLLING STAKE
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fff127a7/oceania-healthcare-ceo-expects-macquarie-to-start-selling-down-controlling-stake.html

also ryman pay increase will put pressure on oceania to match , funding doesnt cover it.

[Xerof]

OCEANIA HEALTHCARE CEO EXPECTS MACQUARIE TO START SELLING DOWN CONTROLLING STAKE


http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/fff127a7/oceania-healthcare-ceo-expects-macquarie-to-start-selling-down-controlling-stake.html

also ryman pay increase will put pressure on oceania to match , funding doesnt cover it.

Well, the sooner the better, if everyone thinks their overhang has held back the SP, then we can get the SUMesque lift that followed Q's exit. The insto's here will be underexposed, just waiting for the day the broker calls, looking for an expression of interest.

So will I

[winner69]

Positive start to the day

A 100,000 transaction a while ago

[couta1]

Positive start to the day

A 100,000 transaction a while ago HaHa winner, keep talking positive enough and you might scare that monster elephant back into the bush, I say come you beautiful creature.

[jg8512]

anyone got their head around this change in revenue recognition. I do find the accounting for rest home operators quite complex generally - this is no exception - but if I understand correctly, the change in revenue recognition means OCA's FY18 results get a double benefit relative to FY17 (and FY19). Ie, FY18 picks up the revenue deferred from FY17 (as FY17 was not restated) as well as any new resales captured by the revenue recognition policy in FY18. In FY19, there will just be any gains occurring in that year. SO an artificial boost to fy18 revenues and profits (by circa $2-3m; which is ultimately value neutral - just makes one year (FY18) look better). the Annual Report says the new policy is better - it may well be - but company could perhaps have explained this more fully.

PS. It looks like the sought of change you would make to present the accounts in best light for the majority shareholder to sell and maximise their sales price, IMHO.! GLAH

[winner69]

anyone got their head around this change in revenue recognition. I do find the accounting for rest home operators quite complex generally - this is no exception - but if I understand correctly, the change in revenue recognition means OCA's FY18 results get a double benefit relative to FY17 (and FY19). Ie, FY18 picks up the revenue deferred from FY17 (as FY17 was not restated) as well as any new resales captured by the revenue recognition policy in FY18. In FY19, there will just be any gains occurring in that year. SO an artificial boost to fy18 revenues and profits (by circa $2-3m; which is ultimately value neutral - just makes one year (FY18) look better). the Annual Report says the new policy is better - it may well be - but company could perhaps have explained this more fully.

PS. It looks like the sought of change you would make to present the accounts in best light for the majority shareholder to sell and maximise their sales price, IMHO.! GLAH

Good points. Does look like it boosted F18 earnings eh

[winner69]

FNZC says OUTPERFORM with a 12 month $1.22 target
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/de70a968/first-nz-capital-lifts-oceania-healthcare-to-outperform-12-month-target-price-12.html

So on their methodology today’s price a bit ahead of itself

Stupid eh ...they just don’t get it do they

[dabsman]

I must be next in the buy queue at 1.11... patience is never my strong point

[RupertBear]

I must be next in the buy queue at 1.11... patience is never my strong point

My impatience got the better of me and topped up a few at $1.12 instead of waiting for it to go down to $1.10 ;) it will definitely go down now so you should be ok :cool:

[bull....]

if theres a placement coming insto.s will sell now and buy back cheaper. wonder if first nz capital is pitching for the work.

[RTM]

My impatience got the better of me and topped up a few at $1.12 instead of waiting for it to go down to $1.10 ;) it will definitely go down now so you should be ok :cool:

Interesting isn't it the way different folk work. I had an order in at 109 and have reduced it to 105 to double my stake. Just in case the overhang comes into play. So...basically happy with what I have....but if a bargain comes along..... will have some.
Good luck to all.

[percy]

FNZC says OUTPERFORM with a 12 month $1.22 target
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/de70a968/first-nz-capital-lifts-oceania-healthcare-to-outperform-12-month-target-price-12.html

So on their methodology today’s price a bit ahead of itself

Stupid eh ...they just don’t get it do they

Coming from NZ's top broking house,including No.1 for research, that is a very positive confirmation for OCA's directors and management, that they are on course.Good for us shareholders as well.
Craig's have not updated their research as yet.

[peat]

So...basically happy with what I have....but if a bargain comes along..... will have some.
Good luck to all.

Yeh this is more my approach with this one. Like it but conscious of sectoral imbalance

[trader_jackson]

I'm not fussed with Forbar's FY19 eps guess.

Forsyth says OCA only worth $1.13 in the next 12 months, that's better than $1.07 they had 2 days ago. They still say EPS is going down next year (from 8.5 to 7.9).
No worries - like their ARV valuation, they are waay wrong.
$1.13 is quite a bit different to $1.22 from - they clearly don't care about a block trade(s) from the elephant in the room.

[Beagle]

Forsyth says OCA only worth $1.13 in the next 12 months, that's better than $1.07 they had 2 days ago. They still say EPS is going down next year (from 8.5 to 7.9).
No worries - like their ARV valuation, they are waay wrong.
$1.13 is quite a bit different to $1.22 from - they clearly don't care about a block trade(s) from the elephant in the room.


LOL... Development margin as just one matter on units delivered was $22.1m last year and delivery of units is projected to double in FY19. The caliber of their research is "truly remarkable" Have they even noticed that quite apart from that the embedded value per existing unit is up quite dramatically meaning future re-sales will generate significantly more profit on top of the increased (perhaps doubled) development profit ?
I feel very sorry for people relying on their analysis and paying "full service" brokerage rates.

[stoploss]

LOL... Development margin as just one matter on units delivered was $22.1m last year and delivery of units is projected to double in FY19. The caliber of their research is "truly remarkable" Have they even noticed that quite apart from that the embedded value per existing unit is up quite dramatically meaning future re-sales will generate significantly more profit on top of the increased (perhaps doubled) development profit ?
I feel very sorry for people relying on their analysis and paying "full service" brokerage rates.
Beagle maybe a change of career ? I hear investment banking pays better than accounting :)
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2018/05/31/jp-morgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-salary

[Valiant]

Weekly stock comment from Craigs;
https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/stock-comment-2018/07/oceania-healthcare (https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/stock-comment-2018/07/oceania-healthcare)

[winner69]

OCA at 113 is on a PE ratio of 8.9 (NPAT)

SUM at 780 is on a PE of 7.5

For those who think that OCA is really cheap relative to SUM think about what the above ratios are really telling you.

[trader_jackson]

OCA at 113 is on a PE ratio of 8.9 (NPAT)

SUM at 780 is on a PE of 7.5

For those who think that OCA is really cheap relative to SUM think about what the above ratios are really telling you.

Whats the book values and underlying PE like? That's the real stuff in the retirement village industry to look at apparently.

[freddagg]

PS. It looks like the sought of change you would make to present the accounts in best light for the majority shareholder to sell and maximise their sales price, IMHO.! GLAH

What !!! You cant say that. I had to wash my mouth out with soap for speaking that sort of rubbish.

[Joshuatree]

Hope you got a soapy selfie fredd.:D One needs to be a cynic in this business when it comes to the smell of money by big players, jg8512's comment is appropriate and topical imo .

[RupertBear]

Interesting isn't it the way different folk work. I had an order in at 109 and have reduced it to 105 to double my stake. Just in case the overhang comes into play. So...basically happy with what I have....but if a bargain comes along..... will have some.
Good luck to all.

I think it is safe to say you have a much more mature approach to investing than me. I would like to be more like you. :) While I am much less impulsive than I was I still get sucked into my own little FOMO world. I suspect my holdings are a lot less than most peoples on here so a few cents either way doesnt make a huge $ difference to me and I plan to hold them long term. Cheers

[couta1]

I think it is safe to say you have a much more mature approach to investing than me. I would like to be more like you. :) While I am much less impulsive than I was I still get sucked into my own little FOMO world. I suspect my holdings are a lot less than most peoples on here so a few cents either way doesnt make a huge $ difference to me and I plan to hold them long term. Cheers FOMO can be modified by the fear of being trampled on by an XXXOS sized Elephant coming your way soon. PS-My holding was reduced yesterday morning in anticipation of that.

[BlackPeter]

OCA at 113 is on a PE ratio of 8.9 (NPAT)

SUM at 780 is on a PE of 7.5

For those who think that OCA is really cheap relative to SUM think about what the above ratios are really telling you.

Just curious - what input parameters do you use to get for SUM a PE of 7.5? Is this a backward PE based on one exceptional year (FY2017)? Not sure it makes a lot of sense to compare companies based on one stellar result (particularly lying in the past).

In my books is OCA with a forward PE (3 years averaged) of 9, while SUM commands a forward PE (dto) of 12.2. This makes somehow more sense to me, particularly considering that SUM's CAGR (20) is ways higher than OCA's (~7).

[Beagle]

OCA at 113 is on a PE ratio of 8.9 (NPAT)

SUM at 780 is on a PE of 7.5

For those who think that OCA is really cheap relative to SUM think about what the above ratios are really telling you.

One could make the case that seeing as most of OCA's revenue is from care services the reported NPAT, (not that they pay any tax as they have tax losses) is more relevant than underlying profit which is the more common frame of reference for many of the other operators who's primary activity is property. All depends which way you do your SUM's :) Any way you slice and dice it with SUM's consistently dramatically higher growth rate than RYM, the latter is the one that's the clear outlier of the entire sector in terms of its multiple in my opinion so I actioned that yesterday selling my modest stake and adding to OCA.

If OCA changed their revenue recognition policy to move it into line with normal industry standards and such change is clearly disclosed the accounts including being quantified then I would think its easy enough for most analysts and serious investors to make any adjustment they consider appropriate. Appropriate disclosure of this change means aspersions that accounts are suspect are still unwarranted in my opinion....but people will choose to believe what they want and are perfectly entitled to their own point of view. I hope to get time to read the annual report next week.

[RupertBear]

FOMO can be modified by the fear of being trampled on by an XXXOS sized Elephant coming your way soon. PS-My holding was reduced yesterday morning in anticipation of that.

This bear aint scared of Elephants Couta, bears can run much faster than elephants so there is no fear of being trampled :eek2: Oh and I probably bought some of your shares yesterday as well, oh dear silly bear :cool: How low do you think this will go if the stampeed goes ahead?

[RupertBear]

FOMO can be modified by the fear of being trampled on by an XXXOS sized Elephant coming your way soon. PS-My holding was reduced yesterday morning in anticipation of that.

Knowing you you had an XXXOS sized holding yesterday and now you only have an XOS sized holding :D

[couta1]

This bear aint scared of Elephants Couta, bears can run much faster than elephants so there is no fear of being trampled :eek2: Oh and I probably bought some of your shares yesterday as well, oh dear silly bear :cool: How low do you think this will go if the stampeed goes ahead? Your long little bear so no worries, I think you mearnt to say when the stampede goes ahead not if. PS-I reckon $1.05 has a nice ring to it.

[winner69]

Just curious - what input parameters do you use to get for SUM a PE of 7.5? Is this a backward PE based on one exceptional year (FY2017)? Not sure it makes a lot of sense to compare companies based on one stellar result (particularly lying in the past).

In my books is OCA with a forward PE (3 years averaged) of 9, while SUM commands a forward PE (dto) of 12.2. This makes somehow more sense to me, particularly considering that SUM's CAGR (20) is ways higher than OCA's (~7).

Just used last reported eps (SUM last December and OCA for May). Appreciate some timing differences but that’s the last known numbers we have

SUM stellar result? One of many recent stellar years. And wasn’t the OCA result really stellar?

Sort of understand your methodology but is based on assumptions about the future ...isn’t it?

Anyway my comparison of PEs above was a lead into a question as to why.


We (not just you and me but all of us) will never agree what’s best approach.

[BlackPeter]

Sort of understand your methodology but is based on assumptions about the future ...isn’t it?


Isn't any meaningful investment methodology based on assumptions about the future?

Even if you compare just trailing PE's, than your assumption is that they are a meaningful indicator for future performance, which is an assumption about the future ..

So, yes - my investment methodology is based on assumptions about the future (as any other investment methodology) - otherwise it would be pointless.

[RupertBear]

After gobbling up a few OCA this week it is now worth 5.7% of my portfolio. More than SUM which is worth 3.3%. I am thinking my balance is wrong and I have gobbled up too many OCA :( it is also weighing on my mind so I am thinking I should reduce my OCA holding somewhat. I would be grateful to hear peoples opinions on how much of a ones portfolio one should have in this type of share. :confused:

[percy]

After gobbling up a few OCA this week it is now worth 5.7% of my portfolio. More than SUM which is worth 3.3%. I am thinking my balance is wrong and I have gobbled up too many OCA :( it is also weighing on my mind so I am thinking I should reduce my OCA holding somewhat. I would be grateful to hear peoples opinions on how much of a ones portfolio one should have in this type of share. :confused:

"Stay Calm",under 10% of your portfolio in this sector is not going overboard.
After holding SUM,RYM and OCA,I am now happy just to hold OCA.
So hang onto both your SUM and OCA ,and do not worry about having more of one.

[BlackPeter]

After gobbling up a few OCA this week it is now worth 5.7% of my portfolio. More than SUM which is worth 3.3%. I am thinking my balance is wrong and I have gobbled up too many OCA :( it is also weighing on my mind so I am thinking I should reduce my OCA holding somewhat. I would be grateful to hear peoples opinions on how much of a ones portfolio one should have in this type of share. :confused:

Agree with percy. Both defensive shares - and while I am a fan of diversification, you can overdo everything. Both SUM as well as OCA are more than 10% of my portfolio - and this fact is if anything improving my sleep at night ;);

As far as the balance is concerned - I see OCA as somewhat higher risk (not of going down the drain, but potentially of disappointing shareholders in the future), but I see them as well as having higher chances to be earlier than SUM in doubling their SP from here. Just a wild guess for the double bagger from here: OCA - 3 years, SUM - 5 years?

But yes, there is no guarantee - and up to the individual how one express this in balancing ones shares. I started with a similar parcel size ($-wise) of OCA and SUM. Both grew well, but at this stage SUM is ahead. Still think OCA might win the race long term, but not too fussed about it.

[Beagle]

No question OCA pricing being affected by the overhang whereas SUM isn't. Some investors will position themselves to take advantage of this short term pricing aberration.

I think anyone hoping for a $1.05 organised placement by Macquarie might be a bit "hopeful" with their pricing but stranger things have happened and you never know.

[winner69]

No question OCA pricing being affected by the overhang whereas SUM isn't. Some investors will position themselves to take advantage of this short term pricing aberration.

I think anyone hoping for a $1.05 organised placement by Macquarie might be a bit "hopeful" with their pricing but stranger things have happened and you never know.

Big end of town might get $1.05 if there’s a rush to the exits — mere mortals a bit higher

[Blue Skies]

After gobbling up a few OCA this week it is now worth 5.7% of my portfolio. More than SUM which is worth 3.3%. I am thinking my balance is wrong and I have gobbled up too many OCA :( it is also weighing on my mind so I am thinking I should reduce my OCA holding somewhat. I would be grateful to hear peoples opinions on how much of a ones portfolio one should have in this type of share. :confused:

I topped up twice last week, once before results & then twice as many post excellent results. Portfolio now sitting at 11% OCA & 9.5% SUM & not worried about the split. See both as excellent companies, defensive stocks & prob continue to add to both on any weakness. The pie (sector) is only going to get bigger driven by hugely increasing ageing pop, so even average performers with stagnant market share are going to grow, let alone these 2 extremely well run, asset rich companies & would be happy having 25 or even 30% of portfolio in this sector.
Now OCA have runs on the board, been once around the track, on current SP my pick would be OCA to double before SUM.

[RupertBear]

Thank you for all your helpful comments. Much appreciated :)

[RupertBear]

I appear to have turned into a Senior Member today :eek2: :lol: :lol::lol: Hmm need to figure out how to get rid of that!

[couta1]

After gobbling up a few OCA this week it is now worth 5.7% of my portfolio. More than SUM which is worth 3.3%. I am thinking my balance is wrong and I have gobbled up too many OCA :( it is also weighing on my mind so I am thinking I should reduce my OCA holding somewhat. I would be grateful to hear peoples opinions on how much of a ones portfolio one should have in this type of share. :confused: Honestly I wouldn't give it a second thought RB, both of those percentages are small. Balance means different things to different people, personally I'm quite happy holding 4 stocks with 25% in each(Currently have about 7 stocks and 3 of them have around 25 % of total in each of them) PS-I think I must be getting more conservative.

[percy]

I appear to have turned into a Senior Member today :eek2: :lol: :lol::lol: Hmm need to figure out how to get rid of that!

Be happy with that.
I am still labelled a percy…...lol.

[RupertBear]

Be happy with that.
I am still labelled a percy…...lol.

Lol :) Winner is an Awesome Cool Cat :cool: I would like to be an Awesome Cool Bear one day :D

[percy]

Lol :) Winner is an Awesome Cool Cat :cool: I would like to be an Awesome Cool Bear one day :D

I can only hope you will be.
Looks as though my lot is once a percy, always a percy.
At least no on else wants to be the same as me,so I remain unique.....

[RupertBear]

I can only hope you will be.
Looks as though my lot is once a percy, always a percy.
At least no on else wants to be the same as me,so I remain unique.....

Once a percy always a percy has a nice honest ring to it and you will always be refreshingly unique percy :) I still smile at the thought of you trying on those modern pants :lol::lol:

[Lewylewylewy]

Oca should grow faster than sum initially because theyre currently cheap

[thestg]

Oca should grow faster than sum initially because theyre currently cheap

Have another look. Which is the cheapest?
SUM
Shares: 224,874,299
Earnings/Share 100.46 cents
Share price $7.76

OCA
Shares 610,254,625
Earnings/Share 13.39 cents
Share price $1.13
(Source ANZ Securities)

[percy]

Recent research I have seen shows.;
…………………………………………...RYM...………………………….SUM...…………………… …….OCA
NTA...………………………………….$3.88...………………………..$3.48...……… ………………$1.04
P/NTA...………………………………….3.2...……………………………2.2...………………… ……...1.1

[Blue Skies]

Recent research I have seen shows.;
…………………………………………...RYM...………………………….SUM...…………………… …….OCA
NTA...………………………………….$3.88...………………………..$3.48...……… ………………$1.04
P/NTA...………………………………….3.2...……………………………2.2...………………… ……...1.1

Thanks Percy & thestg
Wow this is interesting, which is the cheapest now/looking forward?

Correct me if wrong, but think I read OCA's existing 50 sites have significantly lower unit density coverage per site than SUM or RYM, meaning OCA has the potential to increase/double the number of units without the need to find & purchase more land.
Got to be a good thing?

[Joshuatree]

Its full steam in Tauranga with a $250 million eco friendly retirement village all go in papamoa. Generus Living Group who already have a 250 house village are just about to start the new 350 house village. I Like the environmental theme . solar power, , composting, commercial climate controlled glasshouse, market garden, fruit trees , charging bays etc. take note OCA,RYM,SUM etc you are behind the trend.

There are some big players out there besides our NZX companies, jumping in to this lucrative sector and many many small existing players. Possible that there could become an oversupply sometime , but far away hopefully.

[Blue Skies]

Just a reminder of the numbers, by 2036, projected there will be 1.258,500 million NZ'ers over the age of 65, that's an additional 547,300 or 77% increase from 2016. 1 in 4.5 NZ'ers will be over 65.
(Source: NZ SuperSeniors website)
That's one huge headache for govt policy planners.

[stoploss]

Just a reminder of the numbers, by 2036, projected there will be 1.258,500 million NZ'ers over the age of 65, that's an additional 547,300 or 77% increase from 2016. 1 in 4.5 NZ'ers will be over 65.
(Source: NZ SuperSeniors website)
That's one huge headache for govt policy planners.
How many retirement homes can you go into aged 65 ?

[winner69]

Recent research I have seen shows.;
…………………………………………...RYM...………………………….SUM...…………………… …….OCA
NTA...………………………………….$3.88...………………………..$3.48...……… ………………$1.04
P/NTA...………………………………….3.2...……………………………2.2...………………… ……...1.1


Just as well there’s not a ‘rule’ that says they all should have the same multiple (in reality it’ll never be that way anyway)

Otherwise RYM shareprice would be only $4 odd

[Cool Bear]

Lol :) Winner is an Awesome Cool Cat :cool: I would like to be an Awesome Cool Bear one day :D
Hey, that is my future title!

[RupertBear]

Hey, that is my future title!

Lol! Fair enough given you are already a Cool Bear! :cool: Guess I will just have to be happy with Rupert the Awesome Bear :D

[couta1]

Thanks Percy & thestg
Wow this is interesting, which is the cheapest now/looking forward?

Correct me if wrong, but think I read OCA's existing 50 sites have significantly lower unit density coverage per site than SUM or RYM, meaning OCA has the potential to increase/double the number of units without the need to find & purchase more land.
Got to be a good thing? Re the land issue, your correct. In terms of which is cheapest, ask yourself which of the 3 will be the first to double in price from now, correct answer begins with an O.

[BobbyMorocco]

Re the land issue, your correct. In terms of which is cheapest, ask yourself which of the 3 will be the first to double in price from now, correct answer begins with an O.

That's great because that's the same answer I've got! Also my thoughts are that if we entered a sustained downturn (bear market) sometime in the future OCA's share price would hold up the best as it is more defensive in nature due to their higher weighting of earnings coming from aged care compared to the likes of SUM and RYM. Also OCA has lower debt levels and pays a higher dividend. This should also help them out if things started looking gloomy. Not that I'm thinking things are heading that way, I'm just thinking out loud and looking ahead.

[ziggy415]

Re the land issue, your correct. In terms of which is cheapest, ask yourself which of the 3 will be the first to double in price from now, correct answer begins with an O.
Ah of course Orsum

[Patient Panda]

Just as well there’s not a ‘rule’ that says they all should have the same multiple (in reality it’ll never be that way anyway)

Otherwise RYM shareprice would be only $4 odd


Sure if you’re only looking at 1/3 of the business. As we all know theres a lot more to a business and to generating returns than net tangible assets. NTA of course does not reflect or incorporate the people both employees and management, brand and pricing power, etc.. etc...
extremely easy to see where Rym gets its multiple from.

and I know you know this winner but good to keep things balanced

[winner69]

Sure if you’re only looking at 1/3 of the business. As we all know theres a lot more to a business and to generating returns than net tangible assets. NTA of course does not reflect or incorporate the people both employees and management, brand and pricing power, etc.. etc...
extremely easy to see where Rym gets its multiple from.

and I know you know this winner but good to keep things balanced


So right panda


I only said what I did n response to the implied assumption that OCA is 'cheap' because it has a lower multiple than the others and probably that thinking assumes that OCA should trade at multiples much closer or even the same as the others

but you have explained my all are not equals

[moka]

How many retirement homes can you go into aged 65 ?

I presume you mean retirement villages, not retirement homes. Retirement homes are rest homes where you receive care because you can no longer manage in your own home.
There are hundreds of smaller villages that you can go into at age 65, or even 50 or 55. They tend to be the “lifestyle” villages, without care facilities, although they may have a long-term plan to build care facilities. Some are privately owned, others are run by groups such as churches, masons or charitable trusts.

https://www.villageguide.co.nz/retirementvillages/
(https://www.villageguide.co.nz/retirementvillages/)
“At the time of entry, applicants generally need to be over 65 years of age and able to cope with the day-to-day running of their accommodation.”
“The Village offers an affordable coastal lifestyle and is operated by a Registered Charitable Trust. Ideally suited to those who are independent and young at heart (60 years plus),”
“The village is managed by the local community Trust and provides an attractive, affordable lifestyle for residents in the 55+ age bracket”


“You must be 55 years of age or older
At the time of purchase, of an Occupation Right Agreement you must be in good health
In certain circumstances (e.g. ill health or breach of the terms of your Agreement), the Management has the option to repurchase your unit”

[moka]

Also my thoughts are that if we entered a sustained downturn (bear market) sometime in the future OCA's share price would hold up the best as it is more defensive in nature due to their higher weighting of earnings coming from aged care compared to the likes of SUM and RYM. Also OCA has lower debt levels and pays a higher dividend. This should also help them out if things started looking gloomy. Not that I'm thinking things are heading that way, I'm just thinking out loud and looking ahead.

If we have a downturn and property prices drop all retirement villages will suffer because what happened after GFC is that people were reluctant to sell up and move into a retirement village because they would “lose” money on their property if they did so e.g. their property was worth $400K in 2007 and only worth $300K in 2009. So they decide to sit tight and not sell until property prices rise again. Or they couldn't sell their home even at a lower price because the property market just dried up. Units at retirement villages such as Metlifecare often took 1 – 2 years to sell, sometimes longer after the crash.

[percy]

As per www.4-traders.com
………………………………………………..………...ROA...…………………...ROE...…… ………..PE...……………..Yield
Ryman …….....2019e...……………………...4.45%...……………..10.9%...… ………….19.2...…………..1.89%
………………... 2020e...……………………...4.49%...……………...11.4%...…………... 17.1...…………..2.18%
Summerset....2019e...……………………...4.42%...……………...10 .5%...…………...14.4...…………..1.68%
……………….. 2020e...……………………...4.48%...……………….10.8%...…………….13 .1...…………..1.98%
Oceania...……..2019e...………………….4.30%...……………...9.96 %...…………...10.9...…………..4.25%
…………….. ... 2020e...……………………...4.48%...……………..11.2%...……………….9 .7...…………….4.96%

[Patient Panda]

As per www.4-traders.com (http://www.4-traders.com)
………………………………………………..………...ROA...…………………...ROE...…… ………..PE...……………..Yield
Ryman …….....2019e...……………………...4.45%...……………..10.9%...… ………….19.2...…………..1.89%
………………... 2020e...……………………...4.49%...……………...11.4%...…………... 17.1...…………..2.18%
Summerset....2019e...……………………...4.42%...……………...10 .5%...…………...14.4...…………..1.68%
……………….. 2020e...……………………...4.48%...……………….10.8%...…………….13 .1...…………..1.98%
Oceania...……..2019e...………………….4.30%...……………...9.96 %...…………...10.9...…………..4.25%
…………….. ... 2020e...……………………...4.48%...……………..11.2%...……………….9 .7...…………….4.96%


Hey Perc 4traders v useful but their Rym numbers have me skeptical.

https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financial-highlights/RYM.NZ
Rym 5 year ROE is quoted 23.58
ROE for 2018 23.94

5 year av ROA quoted 7.9%
ROA TTM 8%


As far as I know [could easily stand to be corrected) their ROE has been above 20% since I began holding them in 2013 I will be highly surprised if it plummets anywhere south of 15% over the next few years.

i find the past often (not always) a good predictor of the future.

i can’t speak for the others as I’m not as well acquainted with them.

yield and PE on OCA look good

Unrelated, I see BUPA has started tv advertisements for their retirement villages. Competition heating up.

[percy]

Usually www.4-traders.com figures are good.
I used them as they had the same ratios,which made comparisons easy to understand.
Also for me to work out all the same ratios for OCA,RYM and SUM would take me forever.
Recently I was researching KSL in Australia, and found 4-traders figures were wrong,but that was an exception.

[BobbyMorocco]

If we have a downturn and property prices drop all retirement villages will suffer because what happened after GFC is that people were reluctant to sell up and move into a retirement village because they would “lose” money on their property if they did so e.g. their property was worth $400K in 2007 and only worth $300K in 2009. So they decide to sit tight and not sell until property prices rise again. Or they couldn't sell their home even at a lower price because the property market just dried up. Units at retirement villages such as Metlifecare often took 1 – 2 years to sell, sometimes longer after the crash.

Yes, I'm not doubting they will all suffer if we have a similar scenario play out in the future, but my view is that OCA will suffer less. OCA's aged care is not so much about "Hey let's sell our house, move into a unit that's cheaper, and retire in a nice little village." It's more about "Hey Mum is sick, she needs care. Let's find her a place where they'll take care of her." This side of OCA's business is needs based and is somewhat defensive IMO.

[Patient Panda]

Very strange It seems 4 traders have ifrs eps of 77.6 in 2018 falling to an expected 2019 eps of 64.2.

Unlikely that would happen and I think thats what is giving such weird predicted outcomes.

edited for clarity

[percy]

Very strange It seems they have eps of 77.6 in 2018 falling to an expected 2019 eps of 64.2.

Unlikely that would happen and I think thats what is giving such weird predicted outcomes.

Comparing apples to oranges Craigs have RYM "Normalised" eps 2018 ...41 cps.....2018.47cps and 2020 58cps.????????????

[Patient Panda]

Comparing apples to oranges Craigs have RYM "Normalised" eps 2018 ...41 cps.....2018.47cps and 2020 58cps.????????????

Ah the ones I quoted in the last post were IFRS EPS numbers from 4traders. Those ones from Craigs are underlying eps numbers. Both useful and both should show a strong similar trend.

good to keep us on our toes!

[winner69]

Recent research I have seen shows.;
…………………………………………...RYM...………………………….SUM...…………………… …….OCA
NTA...………………………………….$3.88...………………………..$3.48...……… ………………$1.04
P/NTA...………………………………….3.2...……………………………2.2...………………… ……...1.1


One has to be careful.

The NTA used in this table are not comparing apples to apples

For instance the $1.04 quoted for OCA is a thing OCA made up called NAV which is Net Adjusted Value. OCA actual NTA is only $0.86

Changes the multiples a bit but the rankings still remain OCA SUM RYM and that at the end of the day is how the market sees the relative value of each. In a year (or two) I doubt if that order will change.

[winner69]

Lol! Fair enough given you are already a Cool Bear! :cool: Guess I will just have to be happy with Rupert the Awesome Bear :D

Change your profile .....”One awesome bear” is better and more representive than “Senior Member”

[winner69]

FNZC research has a history of being the best in NZ.
I am sure they will be very disappointed you found fault with it.

Was just pointing out something that was wrong ....if going to say NTA why not use reported NTA instead of something else

You keep reminding us to check the facts eh ...I just did that

[percy]

Was just pointing out something that was wrong ....if going to say NTA why not use reported NTA instead of something else

You keep reminding us to check the facts eh ...I just did that

They note;
"We used NAV for OCA as this takes account of the CBRE value of care assets."
I take that to mean they are trying very hard to compare apples to apples.

[RTM]

As per www.4-traders.com
………………………………………………..………...ROA...…………………...ROE...…… ………..PE...……………..Yield
Ryman …….....2019e...……………………...4.45%...……………..10.9%...… ………….19.2...…………..1.89%
………………... 2020e...……………………...4.49%...……………...11.4%...…………... 17.1...…………..2.18%
Summerset....2019e...……………………...4.42%...……………...10 .5%...…………...14.4...…………..1.68%
……………….. 2020e...……………………...4.48%...……………….10.8%...…………….13 .1...…………..1.98%
Oceania...……..2019e...………………….4.30%...……………...9.96 %...…………...10.9...…………..4.25%
…………….. ... 2020e...……………………...4.48%...……………..11.2%...……………….9 .7...…………….4.96%


Thanks Percy. Looking at the yield reminds me why I like Oceania so much. Love getting a decent dividend yield along with a reasonable chance of growth of my capital.
Sums up why many of us bet on the share market rather than having our money in a bank.

[winner69]

They note;
"We used NAV for OCA as this takes account of the CBRE value of care assets."
I take that to mean they are trying very hard to compare apples to apples.

Thanks Percy ...was going to look see if they made explanation notes

Now I have to see if the reported NTAs for RYM and SUM include these sort of items to check if it is indeed apples for apples.

[percy]

Thanks Percy. Looking at the yield reminds me why I like Oceania so much. Love getting a decent dividend yield along with a reasonable chance of growth of my capital.
Sums up why many of us bet on the share market rather than having our money in a bank.

Yes their yield is the highest,and I think there is an added margin of safety for us, buying the share at a modest premium, of only 1.1 times NAV/NTA.
This result proves to me they will be re-rated upwards by the market at some stage.
As we never intend to sell, we can wait for that to happen.!

[RupertBear]

Change your profile .....”One awesome bear” is better and more representive than “Senior Member”

I would if I could Winner...havnt figured out how to yet! :confused:

[winner69]

I would if I could Winner...havnt figured out how to yet! :confused:

Give it a go

Go to Settings at top of screen where you log on

On left under My Settings is Edit Profile ......click on that

Second box down is Custom User Title and you will find a space to type in ‘One Awesome Bear’

Down a bit and there is a SAVE CHANGES button and hopefully all done

[RupertBear]

Give it a go

Go to Settings at top of screen where you log on

On left under My Settings is Edit Profile ......click on that

Second box down is Custom User Title and you will find a space to type in ‘One Awesome Bear’

Down a bit and there is a SAVE CHANGES button and hopefully all done

Cool thank you Awesome Cat. I think I am now an Awesome Bear! :cool: Not sure I am anywhere near being Awesome yet but Senior Member didnt float my boat....although I do miss RupertBear...so he may come back in some form...:D

[RupertBear]

Nope it appears I am still RupertBear...will keep trying ;)

[winner69]

Nope it appears I am still RupertBear...will keep trying ;)

You still will be RupertBear

What should change is the bit under your name from Senior Member to One Awesome Bear

[RupertBear]

You still will be RupertBear

What should change is the bit under your name from Senior Member to One Awesome Bear

Duh thanks winner

[warren]

Yes, I'm not doubting they will all suffer if we have a similar scenario play out in the future, but my view is that OCA will suffer less. OCA's aged care is not so much about "Hey let's sell our house, move into a unit that's cheaper, and retire in a nice little village." It's more about "Hey Mum is sick, she needs care. Let's find her a place where they'll take care of her." This side of OCA's business is needs based and is somewhat defensive IMO.

Hello Bobby. The outline you paint above was my family's exact predicament except we had already tried a care village and as Dad got worse and needed Hospital care we looked around (we were desperate but not penniless) and moved him to OCA. It was the best thing we ever did .We purchased a care suit--- he had his own "apartment", his favorite things around, yet full hospital care. OCA ran entertainment and had music and talks and the professional nursing staff wore their insignia and rank and name --there was zero of that at the previous care facility.

My first rate impressions of OCA thus gained led to a large investment and so far I have every confidence, in good times ahead and bad, in OCA Management and their ability to both run a classy, human, caring business AND grow it.

[percy]

Warren thank you for your post.

[777]

https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/find-a-place/aged-care/gracelands-care-2

The above was on Fair Go tonight. Not happy customers.

[janner]

https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/find-a-place/aged-care/gracelands-care-2

The above was on Fair Go tonight. Not happy customers.

That must be good for another 100 posts.. :-)))))

[trader_jackson]

https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/find-a-place/aged-care/gracelands-care-2

The above was on Fair Go tonight. Not happy customers.

Was it as bad as what happened at sum other village in manakau recently?

[winner69]

Screwed that guy good and proper

Jeez we cant lose can we as shareholders ....just the confirmation I need to buy more tomorrow

How well did we do ...watch here
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/fair-go

[couta1]

Screwed that guy good and proper

Jeez we cant lose can we as shareholders ....just the confirmation I need to buy more tomorrow

How well did we do ...watch here
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/fair-go Actually bringing the contract up to date as the misinformed fair go lady suggested would mean the family would get less than the 159k they got. He would now get the purchase price minus 30% so in this case 179k minus 30% equals 125k, refurbishment costs are now met by the company. You can't bring an old contract up to date because it was a completely different contract being a unit title. That aside someone made a boo boo on the amount of money spent on that refurbishment as that one went well beyond the standard which is strictly policed in terms of costs.

[janner]

Actually bringing the contract up to date as the misinformed fair go lady suggested would mean the family would get less than the 159k they got. He would now get the purchase price minus 30% so in this case 179k minus 30% equals 125k, refurbishment costs are now met by the company. You can't bring an old contract up to date because it was a completely different contract being a unit title. That aside someone made a boo boo on the amount of money spent on that refurbishment as that one went well beyond the standard which is strictly policed in terms of costs.

Excellent post couta. Still leaves many more to come.

[dobby41]

Actually bringing the contract up to date as the misinformed fair go lady suggested would mean the family would get less than the 159k they got. He would now get the purchase price minus 30% so in this case 179k minus 30% equals 125k, refurbishment costs are now met by the company. You can't bring an old contract up to date because it was a completely different contract being a unit title. That aside someone made a boo boo on the amount of money spent on that refurbishment as that one went well beyond the standard which is strictly policed in terms of costs.

Yes they actually did well.
Under the new contracts they'd get next to nothing.

10-15 years ago (from memory, maybe longer) there was a big noise about this sort of thing with council flats and other similar places.
Lot's of people not happy at the imbalance of benefits.

[Ggcc]

Last order of the day at $1.14 was removed...... I maybe reading too much into it, but maybe Macquarie might enlighten us as to their holdings tomorrow and what they intend to do with them. I always thought they would let us wait until after the dividend.? We will have to wait and see

[value_investor]

I am sticking with $75-80m for now. I think it could surprise to the upside of that range but I would rather err on the side of conservatism at this stage mate. At $80m underlying this would give a 80/52.1m = 53.6% increase in underlying EPS to 13.1 cps. I'll let you do the maths if the market decides given this growth and the very robust long term outlook with strong demographic tailwinds that a multiple of 14 times underlying earnings is appropriate this time next year :) Possibly worth noting that the shares currently trade cum a 2.6 cps dividend so one isn't really paying $1.16 for next years earnings, just $1.134 putting the stock on a forward PE of just 8.6...interestingly that's about where it floated too cheaply last year.

I remain of the view that once Macquarie's have clarified their position this has very strong potential to outperform over the year ahead.

I am very pleased with the result and even more pleased with the outlook. I like the uptick in the build rate, as well as the dividend. It also looks like all their current builds are on time. I was just hoping for a DRP to re-invest and give more shares, maybe I'll just have to keep accumulating myself.

Topped up a bit more after the result. I think if you are long term in this share, the share overhang doesn't matter in the short to medium term. The valuation will have to show, and being a retail investor actually helps you out in this situation as you have the ability to go long. Insto's have to report numbers on a short term basis to their clients and can't move as quickly.

[Beagle]

I am very pleased with the result and even more pleased with the outlook. I like the uptick in the build rate, as well as the dividend. It also looks like all their current builds are on time. I was just hoping for a DRP to re-invest and give more shares, maybe I'll just have to keep accumulating myself.

Topped up a bit more after the result. I think if you are long term in this share, the share overhang doesn't matter in the short to medium term. The valuation will have to show, and being a retail investor actually helps you out in this situation as you have the ability to go long. Insto's have to report numbers on a short term basis to their clients and can't move as quickly.

Taking into account the long term tailwinds in this sector, I agree that long term investors should do very well out of OCA.
Building on time and on budget in the Auckland market really is quite a remarkable achievement given the state of the building industry especially in Auckland. !
I like the fact that the vast majority of their future developments are already consented whereas SUM other companies seem to be buying themselves more drama's in that respect.

[Lewylewylewy]

I am very pleased with the result and even more pleased with the outlook. I like the uptick in the build rate, as well as the dividend. It also looks like all their current builds are on time. I was just hoping for a DRP to re-invest and give more shares, maybe I'll just have to keep accumulating myself.

Topped up a bit more after the result. I think if you are long term in this share, the share overhang doesn't matter in the short to medium term. The valuation will have to show, and being a retail investor actually helps you out in this situation as you have the ability to go long. Insto's have to report numbers on a short term basis to their clients and can't move as quickly.

I think the action on the overhang does matter because it shows their opinion on the value and future. Did they own before it was listed? In which case they might have had info shared to them that could otherwise not be disclosed due to listing regulations.

[Blue Skies]

Cheerful outlook from across the Tasman in Aust Finance News (26 July),on OCA's soaring profit, 45% higher than IPO forecast.

https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network180166 (http://<font color=&quot;#545454&quot;><span style=&quot;font-family: arial&quot;>https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network180166.html</span></font>)

[macduffy]

I think the action on the overhang does matter because it shows their opinion on the value and future. Did they own before it was listed? In which case they might have had info shared to them that could otherwise not be disclosed due to listing regulations.

Yes, they did own it. But there are other considerations in guessing as to when they might want to unload their interest, eg. How is it financed and how much is it costing? What other use/s do they have for the proceeds?

[winner69]

Cheerful outlook from across the Tasman in Aust Finance News (26 July),on OCA's soaring profit, 45% higher than IPO forecast.

https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network180166 (http://<font color="#545454"><span style="font-family: arial">https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network180166.html</span></font>)

Article starts ‘Oceania Healthcare (ASX:OCA) reported a lift in all key financial results for the 12 months to 31 May 2018, with its net profit soaring 72 per cent on the back of higher resale profits and new development sales.’ NPAT was $77m

If you adjust for the horrendous interest expense from the pre IPO days NPAT only ‘soared’ about 25%

Not too bad ...but need to keep the hype up

[Ggcc]

It seems $1.15 is what Macquarie want to sell some of their shares for. Good thing is they don’t seem in a rush.

Only guessing of course

[couta1]

It seems $1.15 is what Macquarie want to sell some of their shares for. Good thing is they don’t seem in a rush.

Only guessing of course HaHa, take the 2.6c divvy off plus a few more cents and you might be close to their sale price.PS-They will bank a nice big divvy and still get the price they want, so why hurry.

[Ggcc]

HaHa, take the 2.6c divvy off plus a few more cents and you might be close to their sale price.PS-They will bank a nice big divvy and still get the price they want, so why hurry.
I hope so and I will be ready to buy more!! I own a lot and can’t wait to buy more

[Maverick]

Macquarie will never sell these on the market. If they unload them at $1,000,000 every working day it will take them just over 1.6 years to do it.
Its been said many times here it will be an off market transfer while we are sleeping.
Now for the crystal ball stuff.... and let's face it , this is what keeps the forum interesting in between the actual facts...
"the deal is already done, and post this dividend an announcement will come saying its done and dusted at market price between x and y dates".
Now there's the real reason the price is being suppressed at $1.15.
We ALL know this share is worth well north of $1.25 right now.

[Food4Thought]

Macquarie will never sell these on the market. If they unload them at $1,000,000 every working day it will take them just over 1.6 years to do it.
Its been said many times here it will be an off market transfer while we are sleeping.
Now for the crystal ball stuff.... and let's face it , this is what keeps the forum interesting in between the actual facts...
"the deal is already done, and post this dividend an announcement will come saying its done and dusted at market price between x and y dates".
Now there's the real reason the price is being suppressed at $1.15.
We ALL know this share is worth well north of $1.25 right now.

I like what you are putting down Maverick. I also ponder about the potential for them to keep the bulk shares for another year or two and longer. In the mean time. Bank divies, Share price appreciation. They may even have suppressed current results to make the next one more glamorous and show the management excellent ability and performance. They are playing a very good hand. We won't know, until too late... then again... you lot (me included eyeballs deep) in this for long term will be grinning ear to ear. I'm very excited about this one. Like a pig in... ✌

[Beagle]

Macquarie will never sell these on the market. If they unload them at $1,000,000 every working day it will take them just over 1.6 years to do it.
Its been said many times here it will be an off market transfer while we are sleeping.
Now for the crystal ball stuff.... and let's face it , this is what keeps the forum interesting in between the actual facts...
"the deal is already done, and post this dividend an announcement will come saying its done and dusted at market price between x and y dates".
Now there's the real reason the price is being suppressed at $1.15.
We ALL know this share is worth well north of $1.25 right now.

SUM people reckon its 1:10 for these to RYM so yes they should be at least $1.25.

[Blue Skies]

Article starts ‘Oceania Healthcare (ASX:OCA) reported a lift in all key financial results for the 12 months to 31 May 2018, with its net profit soaring 72 per cent on the back of higher resale profits and new development sales.’ NPAT was $77m

If you adjust for the horrendous interest expense from the pre IPO days NPAT only ‘soared’ about 25%

Not too bad ...but need to keep the hype up




Hi Winner, reviewing the last 12 months, just wondering why it's necessary to make an adjustment to get NPAT 'only soared about 25%' compared to PCP.

Looking at published PCP figures (which I presume are based on same metrics & standard adjustments every co uses) NPAT increased by 71.5%, Assets increased by 24.9%, & even underlying NPAT increased by 53.1%.
Are you saying they're wrong?

Not doubting you, but could you please explain to this confused poster as I can't work this out?


Postscript' Ok I've realised/worked out what you're saying, thanks Winner, always appreciate your insights & comments (& also humour).

[Antipodean]

SUM people reckon its 1:10 for these to RYM so yes they should be at least $1.25.

Or perhaps 1:5 for these to SUM was the other part of that theorem I believe? 7.67 / 5 = 1.53

[Beagle]

Or perhaps 1:5 for these to SUM was the other part of that theorem I believe? 7.67 / 5 = 1.53

Split the difference ? ($1.53 + $1.25 / 2) = $1.39 :)

[winner69]

Oceania spending plenty of money on TV ads touting business

Is competition heating up a bit in the sector ands it’s getting a bit harder to get new clients?

Just an observation

[percy]

Oceania spending plenty of money on TV ads touting business

Is competition heating up a bit in the sector ands it’s getting a bit harder to get new clients?

Just an observation
Successful businesses are big advertisers.
Ryman have spent a great deal on advertising over the years .
Still do,as do all the majors in this sector.
Newspaper inserts,Lifestyle mags,TV,Mall stands/displays,open days etc.

[Patient Panda]

Oceania spending plenty of money on TV ads touting business

Is competition heating up a bit in the sector ands it’s getting a bit harder to get new clients?

Just an observation

Have also seen a few BUPA ads. Competition definitely increasing. Of course best advertising is by word of mouth from happy residents and families

[trader_jackson]

Of course best advertising is by word of mouth from happy residents and families

That's why Arvida don't need to advertise much, yet have one of the highest occupancy rates.

[percy]

That's why Arvida don't need to advertise much, yet have one of the highest occupancy rates.

"Fake News" Arvida are big advertisers.

[winner69]

That's why Arvida don't need to advertise much, yet have one of the highest occupancy rates.


I've noticed a lot of Oceania advertising .....but a heck of a lot more from Arvida

[trader_jackson]

"Fake News" Arvida are big advertisers.

I have not seen that much pamphlet material, if any, around my area, but have seen sum others, from met, oca, rym and sum almost weekly (especially met).

Ah well - with a (near) sector leading occupancy rate (that has vitally only ever increased, despite expansion and integration etc), what ever Arvida are doing must be working pretty dam well
But ARV's share price ain't convinced

In an unrelated matter, I'll be trying to buy more OCA before the ex date (monday 5pm)

[JoeM]

I have not seen that much pamphlet material, if any, around my area, but have seen sum others, from met, oca, rym and sum almost weekly (especially met).

Ah well - with a (near) sector leading occupancy rate (that has vitally only ever increased, despite expansion and integration etc), what ever Arvida are doing must be working pretty dam well
But ARV's share price ain't convinced

In an unrelated matter, I'll be trying to buy more OCA before the ex date (monday 5pm)


You might be too late, pretty sure its Ex tomorrow.

[percy]

In an unrelated matter, I'll be trying to buy more OCA before the ex date (monday 5pm)
[/SIZE]

I note all quotes for OCA are off the board at ANZ Securities site.
So if you are buying tomorrow make sure you are buying CD.
I am sure JoeM is correct,ex tomorrow..

[trader_jackson]

ASB Securities is the same... maybe I am/was to late...

[777]

They are xd tomorrow.

[dabsman]

I picked up more today assuming it was the last day. The t + 2 settlement process doesn't effect this right?

[777]

I picked up more today assuming it was the last day. The t + 2 settlement process doesn't effect this right?

No. Look at your contract note. It will have cd on it.

[dabsman]

Awesome thank you. This will be my biggest single dividend I've ever received. Says a lot about a reasonable yield and a lot of buying from listing up till today

[Maverick]

I`m not understanding why OCA is a dual listed stock. It hardly trades on the ASX and nor does it have a presence there either. Seems like an unnecessary expense to me?

[winner69]

I`m not understanding why OCA is a dual listed stock. It hardly trades on the ASX and nor does it have a presence there either. Seems like an unnecessary expense to me?

Standby vehicle for Macquarie

[Maverick]

Standby vehicle for Macquarie
YES yes , that does make sense. Cheers winner

[Beagle]

Had a good read of the annual report over the weekend. I was reminded that they really are quite a different company to the other retirement stocks. A real emphasis on care suites which are considerably more affordable than the typical independent living units the others are doing. I think they're doing okay...share price should double within 5 years I reckon and pay about 5-6% divvy yield along the way.

[warren]

Had a good read of the annual report over the weekend. I was reminded that they really are quite a different company to the other retirement stocks. A real emphasis on care suites which are considerably more affordable than the typical independent living units the others are doing. I think they're doing okay...share price should double within 5 years I reckon and pay about 5-6% divvy yield along the way.

Hello Beagle.
That was my family's experience with OCA compared to -------. As my Dad became increasing ---lets say old --couldn't walk then couldn't get to the toilet at all, but was bright and cheerful but CERTAINLY needed hospital care we were able to buy a small but very nice OCA care suit that was "his" apartment ,where he could still get full care . That was approx 165 g and upon Dads passing the estate lost( not certain but lets say 30 g) . It was the Single best decision we ever made. 5 years of a degree of independence and dignity and a feeling of ownership and we could all rest easy knowing he had full hospital care. Ever tried to toilet a heavy grown man say 12 times a day who really cant move?? And I say it again REAL hospital care for the elderly really infirm is a coming tidal wave. And good medical care means even these folks live longer.

[Beagle]

Hello Beagle.
That was my family's experience with OCA compared to -------. As my Dad became increasing ---lets say old --couldn't walk then couldn't get to the toilet at all, but was bright and cheerful but CERTAINLY needed hospital care we were able to buy a small but very nice OCA care suit that was "his" apartment ,where he could still get full care . That was approx 165 g and upon Dads passing the estate lost( not certain but lets say 30 g) . It was the Single best decision we ever made. 5 years of a degree of independence and dignity and a feeling of ownership and we could all rest easy knowing he had full hospital care. Ever tried to toilet a heavy grown man say 12 times a day who really cant move?? And I say it again REAL hospital care for the elderly really infirm is a coming tidal wave. And good medical care means even these folks live longer.

Hi Warren,
Its a tough gig watching your old man wither away. I have been there done that and its not easy at all so please accept my sympathy. In my Dad's case it was a small unit at a Ryman secure dementia facility with care at well less than a standard anyone in our family was happy with. Every day he spent almost all of the day in a recliner chair in the common room. I hear what you're saying about full hospital level care in their own care suite and am 100% supportive of this concept as it also gives the extended family privacy when visiting. Not easy visiting and coping with your emotions of watching one's father pass away in a common room in front of 40 other dementia patients their relatives and all the staff I tell ya ! Not even a chair for visitors to sit in..just stand there like a dumb upset dog watching your father withering away, drugged up to the eyeballs so he wouldn't cause any extra work for Ryman's staff... most of whom didn't seem to speak much English...

Ask me if I think RYM's care standards are the gold standard some people make them out to be and if I hold some resentment ! Its years ago and I know I should move on.... but there must be a better way.... and oh yes wait....there is !!!!

I think this whole care suite concept allows everyone to have the most dignity possible in what are very difficult circumstances so I am very pleased to support this company with a decent sized investment.

[couta1]

Unfortunately in this industry you get rogue Managers/Nurses/Caregivers and axillary staff who are out of step with the 99, even with the best of systems you will never eliminate the problems that these type of staff cause. PS-I rank RYM and OCA at the top for their level of care.

[tim23]

Unfortunately in this industry you get rogue Managers/Nurses/Caregivers and axillary staff who are out of step with the 99, even with the best of systems you will never eliminate the problems that these type of staff cause. PS-I rank RYM and OCA at the top for their level of care.
Probably in every industry...

[couta1]

Probably in every industry... True, but this industry involves your loved ones in various levels of declining health and all the extra emotions that go with that, rogue staff can cause a lot of misery to the residents and their families on a deeply personal level.

[couta1]

The Elephant in the room is well and truly in control of the SP at the moment.

[dabsman]

The Elephant in the room is well and truly in control of the SP at the moment.

Why do you say that? I thought the overhang wasn't a concern as any deal will be off market?

[Maverick]

Completely agree with you Couta. Those significant parcels at 1.14 have been there all week unchanged. The sellers obviously aren't interested in selling , just making real sellers work are a lower price. I don't mind personally because it will end one day, and I'm in no hurry. In the meantime units are being built. the business absolutely humming and huge growth right on track. When this short term game plan (I suspect by the new owners to be of the Macquarie holding) is played out it will be a big and rapid win for those who have stood their ground.
One plus of the manipulated lower price is that it makes it easy to hold such a quality share at such a reduced price.
I note the conflict in the stalwart HLG shareholders starting to sell a few (HLG shares) now that that share price has risen to be closer to more fairly priced. Easy to hang onto OCA at 1.13

[couta1]

Why do you say that? I thought the overhang wasn't a concern as any deal will be off market? Yep, off market at a discount.

[allfromacell]

Has anybody received their dividend yet? I haven't but I then I can't remember filling out a bank details form for theses.

[Ggcc]

Has anybody received their dividend yet? I haven't but I then I can't remember filling out a bank details form for theses.
Mine went in yesterday. Cheque should come through snail mail

[percy]

Mine went in yesterday. Cheque should come through snail mail

So did mine,but after they took out tax of 33% I did not receive a great deal.
Well I guess it was tax.?.Will have to wait for the dividend advice slip to check.

[Xerof]

Yes, Resident Withholding Tax rate is fixed at 33% for dividends.

[Lawstudent05]

Yes received mine yesterday in bank account. Shame no div reinvestment policy exists! Nonetheless, I put it into another allocation about to go out.

[RTM]

Yes received mine yesterday in bank account. Shame no div reinvestment policy exists! Nonetheless, I put it into another allocation about to go out.

Quite happy no div reinvestment exists. We live off our dividends so not an option for me. And don’t really want the number of shares increased if I am not participating. I guess we are at different stage of our investment cycle.

[Valiant]

I'd be interested if OCA were to do a DRP. Any indications that people know of that this may be on the horizon?

[Lawstudent05]

Quite happy no div reinvestment exists. We live off our dividends so not an option for me. And don’t really want the number of shares increased if I am not participating. I guess we are at different stage of our investment cycle.

Great comment - and in 40 years time I will be in that mindset. Thanks for the different perspective.

[couta1]

Any build up on the buy side at $1.12 gets smashed, the market is waiting for Macs to come forward, get your skates on guys.

[Grimy]

Quite happy no div reinvestment exists. We live off our dividends so not an option for me. And don’t really want the number of shares increased if I am not participating. I guess we are at different stage of our investment cycle.
Same here. I used to use DRPs when available, but now we are also using dividend income to live on we have no need of it. And for the small % advantage of using one I'd rather have the money and decide if/where I want to reinvest. Great though for those with enough income and a real commitment to a company.

[whatsup]

AGM today at 2.00

[couta1]

AGM today at 2.00 SP looks like it's rising in anticipation, however the Elephant hasn't moved.

[Beagle]

SP looks like it's rising in anticipation, however the Elephant hasn't moved.

Elephant is bigger than Kashin https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=kashin+the+elephant&id=B5EE9C7ACA6A6C8F16C80F482C52374A77950F6D&FORM=IQFRBA
and everyone wondering when Macquarie will cashin...you see what I did there :)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322929

Sum investors have learned that consistent growth delivers consistent SP gains over time. Maybe the elephant in the room just hangs around for the growth ?

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322929

Sum investors have learned that consistent growth delivers consistent SP gains over time. Maybe the elephant in the room just hangs around for the growth ? Did SUM Quandrant Elephant hang around for the growth, nope.PS-Elephants love their peanuts.

[Beagle]

Agree that are their core Merchant bankers are transaction orientated but obviously Quadrant and Macquarie may have had, / have different agenda's and or level's of patience.

Anyway... anyone heard when this antiquated market will open ? This is like being on a car journey and the kids asking are we there yet ?...except this time we are the kids lol

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322929

Sum investors have learned that consistent growth delivers consistent SP gains over time. Maybe the elephant in the room just hangs around for the growth ?

Any guidance given?

[Beagle]

Any guidance given?

Consistent growth is all the guidance they gave. Might as well settle in for a long term hold I reckon and when Kashin cashes in, that's the time to double down !

[couta1]

Agree that are their core Merchant bankers are transaction orientated but obviously Quadrant and Macquarie may have had, / have different agenda's and or level's of patience.

Anyway... anyone heard when this antiquated market will open ? This is like being on a car journey and the kids asking are we there yet ?...except this time we are the kids lol Lol, give them a chance, they are only one and a half hours late on their 12pm update time.

[Maverick]

Had a good read of today's meeting notices. I am very impressed with the pragmatic and clearly broken down progress in the pipeline in all the levels of care accommodation developments. I feel the management team have very good processes and time tabeling that will provide the consistent growth investors are looking for.
I was particularly pleased to see the care beds are now being sold under the well known villa ORA model. That's the trick to the whole industries profitability. Plus the occupant pays high rent for the weekly care bed use where the villas are about $100/wk.
Its win win for everyone including the occupants.
Loving the comments about the care beds being needs based (and urgently)rather than a lifestyle choice ie villa.
So here we have a business that has increasing: assets, cashflow, profitability. Very low debt levels. It has long term high growth while paying a decent dividend. Guaranteed growing customer base. It supplies an award winning, quality service/product in an industry that is just too hard to start from scratch into.
And whatever way the PE is measured (I see it as 13.5).........its bargain basement cheap.
Why would Macquarie give its majority shareholding away at this level? Not saying that they won`t, who knows their mind, but I can't see why they would need to offer it at a discount.

[Arthur]

Macquarie "owns" this as manager for an infrastructure fund which has numerous smaller investors. They were talking of winding the fund up next year, but the fund also has a larger illiquid asset - an unlisted port in Poland DCT Gdansk. I am guessing that until they have an exit strategy for the port, they will hold the retirement care.

[couta1]

Someone is still capping the SP went to $1.15 then quickly slammed down to $1.12, must be Elephant whispers.

[Beagle]

Had a good read of today's meeting notices. I am very impressed with the pragmatic and clearly broken down progress in the pipeline in all the levels of care accommodation developments. I feel the management team have very good processes and time tabeling that will provide the consistent growth investors are looking for.
I was particularly pleased to see the care beds are now being sold under the well known villa ORA model. That's the trick to the whole industries profitability. Plus the occupant pays high rent for the weekly care bed use where the villas are about $100/wk.
Its win win for everyone including the occupants.
Loving the comments about the care beds being needs based (and urgently)rather than a lifestyle choice ie villa.
So here we have a business that has increasing: assets, cashflow, profitability. Very low debt levels. It has long term high growth while paying a decent dividend. Guaranteed growing customer base. It supplies an award winning, quality service/product in an industry that is just too hard to start from scratch into.
And whatever way the PE is measured (I see it as 13.5).........its bargain basement cheap.
Why would Macquarie give its majority shareholding away at this level? Not saying that they won`t, who knows their mind, but I can't see why they would need to offer it at a discount.

Great post Mav. Fundmentals are all there and I for one am ready and waiting to double down...just waiting to see if Kashin lives up to the name I've given them...

[Lawstudent05]

Someone is still capping the SP went to $1.15 then quickly slammed down to $1.12, must be Elephant whispers.

Hi All,

Could you please explain the Elephant Whispers analogy and the background to it?

[Valiant]

Hi Beagle. From what I've read on the thread the general consensus is that "Kashin" will be sold off in an off market transaction(s) and its likely we won't know untill after its done. With that in mind, aren't we all best to double down sooner than later as the share price is currently held down by this big ol Elephant or would you expect the share price to drop following the sell off, thus, waiting till then to snap some up?

Or additionally, your captial is best spent elsewhere untill the sell off has been completed as the share price isn't going to be doing much untill Macquarie make their move.

[dubya]

Macquarie "owns" this as manager for an infrastructure fund which has numerous smaller investors. They were talking of winding the fund up next year, but the fund also has a larger illiquid asset - an unlisted port in Poland DCT Gdansk. I am guessing that until they have an exit strategy for the port, they will hold the retirement care.

Thanks for that Arthur. I wasn't aware of the details of Macquarie's ownership.

Apparently two infrastructure funds (GIF ii and iii) according to their website.

https://www.macquarie.com/sepas/serve?TAM_OP=login&USERNAME=unauthenticated&ERROR_CODE=0x00000000&URL=%2Fmgl%2Fcom%2Fgif%2Fgif-2&HOSTNAME=www.macquarie.com&PROTOCOL=https

https://www.macquarie.com/sepas/serve?TAM_OP=login&USERNAME=unauthenticated&ERROR_CODE=0x00000000&URL=%2Fmgl%2Fcom%2Fgif%2Fgif-3&HOSTNAME=www.macquarie.com&PROTOCOL=https

And they are now in the process of selling off the Polish port in GIF ii. They don't appear to be wanting to sell it too cheaply either according to this:

https://inframationgroup.com/emea-macquarie-readies-major-port-sale

I reckon they won't be selling OCA off too cheaply either, but just that's my opinion.

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle. From what I've read on the thread the general consensus is that "Kashin" will be sold off in an off market transaction(s) and its likely we won't know untill after its done. With that in mind, aren't we all best to double down sooner than later as the share price is currently held down by this big ol Elephant or would you expect the share price to drop following the sell off, thus, waiting till then to snap some up?

Or additionally, your captial is best spent elsewhere untill the sell off has been completed as the share price isn't going to be doing much untill Macquarie make their move.

Gidday mate. I'm hoping to get some of the action in a possible future private placement. Probably miss out because I'm just a modest retail investor so will probably double down one way or the other either through the private placement or more likely immediately thereafter on market. The present SP suppression does present quite a conundrum doesn't it ! Does one buy now knowing they're already getting a good price or hang out and hope the price is affected by the placement and buy immediately thereafter ? I really don't know so I have a half way, (to where I want to be), position in this one at present.

[44wishlists]

My strategy on OCA is buying it in small parcels. It's a steady stock that moves one or two cents in a reasonable (Subject to person) timeframe. Plus it is giving out dividend constantly, so make it a good long term hold in my portfolio.

Disc. Holder since IPO. Currently making up 10% of my portfolio.

[Blue Skies]

Hi Beagle, another question for you, re MacQ selling the 250M shares, do you think the predicted future fall in the NZD may be causing some hesitation by foreign buyers, & may be why the elephant is still in the room?

[Maverick]

I would never assume to answer for Beagle but my 2 cents is that "McCashin" has always been there. While the share price is obviously hamstrung by the overhang it has still consistently risen from .98 cents to 1.14. ($1.16 by the weekend?)
The share price is easily worth $1.40 all day long at present but the overhang continues to suppress it.
Those that have been waiting for the "McCashin sell off time" to get a bargain aare already 17% behind.
It's just like getting your garden pruning done. "you can wait for the right month of year to prune,or.... you can just do it when you are in the mood, at least you got it done." (quote from Mrs Maverick)

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle, another question for you, re MacQ selling the 250M shares, do you think the predicted future fall in the NZD may be causing some hesitation by foreign buyers, & may be why the elephant is still in the room?

Gidday mate. Kiwi weakness has at least to a fair extent actually been a US strength story. Cross rate with the $A hasn't changed a lot and I think the most likely buyers from Kashin doing its thing will be Kiwi and Australian institutions so I doubt the perception of a major currency change is a huge factor but I certainly wouldn't rule it out as ANZ for example have a forecast of US 62 cents and they could be right ! I think in general terms the fluidity of the policy of the current Government is a concern. They have over 100 different working groups looking at all sorts of things so despite Jacinda saying that she understands business's need for policy certainty the number of working groups badly undermines that and makes it mere lip service. She did look good getting cosy with Chris Luxon though but is this merely "suitwashing" as Simon Bridges claims ?

At the end of the day institutions have to invest their ongoing incoming Kiwisaver funds somewhere and I think that fundamentally the case for investment in OCA at the current price is very strong.