OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

made some nice fish chip money this arvo in OCA .... thx to the rebalance

[Ggcc]

made some nice fish chip money this arvo in OCA .... thx to the rebalance

Good for you. Could you upgrade your fish to Snapper

[Poet]

Hmm, up strongly on high turnover. And just a day after the negative broker analysis. Of course nothing suspicious here is there?

[nztx]

Good for you. Could you upgrade your fish to Snapper


might be a few others doing the same as Bull :)

[winner69]

might be a few others doing the same as Bull :)

Oysters and chips for lunch down on the beach tomorrow for me

Property market turned, sector results pretty good (no disasters) so renewed confidence and enthusiasm for RV stops. The tide has turned

We shall never see the OCA shareprice in the 70s again

[ThaiJohn]

I shall pickle myself in Moet tonight.��

[allfromacell]

The don't catch falling knives and never buy in a downtrend types will start buying now, that's good.

[Curly]

Oysters and chips for lunch down on the beach tomorrow for me

Property market turned, sector results pretty good (no disasters) so renewed confidence and enthusiasm for RV stops. The tide has turned

We shall never see the OCA shareprice in the 70s again

Is it true “you can never have enough OCA shares”. Perhaps a bit of FOMO stirring in the market?

[Ferg]

We shall never see the OCA shareprice in the 70s again
Lol is this the kiss of death?? :)

I very clearly recall such a proclamation "we shall never see $1 again". Now the SP is stuck on the other side of $1....

[Maverick]

Just for fun to join in the celebrations of today.

I sent this to a bestie today , sums up what I am confident is underway. It was done from my small phone and I haven't edited it.

"Sharon zollners research that came out yesterday mark's a paradigm shift that any RV investor ( who knows what to look for) to see. This is what will turn the market. That was the evidence all the instos will have been waiting for. Then a load of sideline folk over the next year or so. If you wanted a champagne moment...yesterday was it."

[SailorRob]

Just for fun to join in the celebrations of today.

I sent this to a bestie today , sums up what I am confident is underway. It was done from my small phone and I haven't edited it.

"Sharon zollners research that came out yesterday mark's a paradigm shift that any RV investor ( who knows what to look for) to see. This is what will turn the market. That was the evidence all the instos will have been waiting for. Then a load of sideline folk over the next year or so. If you wanted a champagne moment...yesterday was it."


Not looking forward to reinvesting my next dividend like I was a few weeks ago.

But conservative 20% CAGR is acceptable.

Just prefer 30.

[RTM]

Lol is this the kiss of death?? :)

I very clearly recall such a proclamation "we shall never see $1 again". Now the SP is stuck on the other side of $1....

I think there was a similar proclamation much higher than that as well !

[Maverick]

Not looking forward to reinvesting my next dividend like I was a few weeks ago.

But conservative 20% CAGR is acceptable.

Just prefer 30.
Sailor , You will recall that chapter in "Irrational Exuberance" about ANCHORS.

So now we are officially plateauing with property sentiment ( therefore naturally heading to normalized turnover activity), that should mean OCA and its peers are worth instantly a lot more than their current value.
While that might be true ( IMO $1.50-$2.00) it will still be a journey to get there.

An "anchor" is the entrenched memory that we have now gotten used to OCA trading well below $1 and at half its asset backing. It will take time for retail investors to drop those accepted "valuations".

However I do wonder whether less emotional investors ( Instos , pension funds and private equity) will be more willing to ramp the price much quicker - as we saw today.

For those that have endured this pain for nearly 2 years and are still here...you have every right to be smug that this is your time. You earned it.

[justakiwi]

Nobody deserves it more than you Mav. You are the reason I bought into OCA, and I am so grateful for your hours of research and analysis, your willingness to share with others, your patient behind the scenes support, your humility, and your friendship.



Sailor , You will recall that chapter in "Irrational Exuberance" about ANCHORS.

So now we are plateauing with property sentiment ( therefore leading to normalized turnover activity), that should mean OCA and its peers are worth instantly a lot more than their current value.
While that might be true ( IMO $1.50-$2.00) it will still be a journey to get there.

An "anchor" is the entrenched memory that we have now gotten used to OCA trading well below $1 and at half its asset backing. It will take a long time for retail investors to drop those accepted "valuations"

However I do wonder whether less emotional investors ( Instos , pension funds and private equity) will be more willing to ramp the price much quicker - as we saw today.

For those that have endured this pain for nearly 2 years and are still here...you have every right to be smug that this is your time. You earned it.

[SailorRob]

Sailor , You will recall that chapter in "Irrational Exuberance" about ANCHORS.

So now we are plateauing with property sentiment ( therefore leading to normalized turnover activity), that should mean OCA and its peers are worth instantly a lot more than their current value.
While that might be true ( IMO $1.50-$2.00) it will still be a journey to get there.

An "anchor" is the entrenched memory that we have now gotten used to OCA trading well below $1 and at half its asset backing. It will take a long time for retail investors to drop that accepted "valuation"

However I do wonder whether less emotional investors ( Instos and private equity) will be more willing to ramp the price much quicker - as we saw today.

For those that have endured this pain for nearly 2 years and are still here...you have every right to be smug that this is your time. You earned it.


Agreed, but with the following edit 'So now we think we are plateauing with property sentiment' Sharon has huge vested interest, Westpac dude seems to be bit more bearish.

Nobody can predict it but we're not even at 2020 prices yet.

Job market still super hot, lets see some sticky inflation and some material job losses and some reluctance by the market to hover up big Grants new bonds and some pulling back of credit offshore.

Things can get WAY worse, but I agree with you that it's all about turnover and the things I highlight as possible above could lead to higher turnover too.

You been around long enough Mav, I am sure, to know that there isn't much pain around at the moment!

[SailorRob]

This is what we're talking about eh? The ANZ report.

https://t.co/2vYvJuIaiN

[Maverick]

You been around long enough Mav, I am sure, to know that there isn't much pain around at the moment!
It has been the most pleasant economy reshape I`ve ever witnessed.
We have all stopped buying jet skis and upgrading our kitchens like good children the Reserve Bank want. In my small world no one has lost ( or even come close to ) losing there jobs or houses.

So our spending is reigned in and no one ( again , in my tiny world) has suffered too much. Text book recession...Job done.

[SailorRob]

It has been the most pleasant economy reshape I`ve ever witnessed.
We have all stopped buying jet skis and upgrading our kitchens like good children the Reserve Bank want. In my small world no one has lost ( or even come close to ) losing there jobs or houses.

So our spending is reigned in and no one ( again , in my tiny world) has suffered too much. Text book recession...Job done.

My thoughts and experience too!

[SailorRob]

Remember, if you want a 6% net yield, with 50% net margin (way higher than Google)

And you're getting $650 a week rent, the MAXIMUM you can pay is...

280k.

[ronaldson]

OCA up 7.69% today. NZX minus 0.55%. It's not all roses out there!

[RTM]

Jeeze Mav & Sailor Boy, sounds like you’ll be voting Labour !

[SailorRob]

Jeeze Mav & Sailor Boy, sounds like you’ll be voting Labour !


I hope Mav was posting his view 'It has been the most pleasant economy reshape I`ve ever witnessed' with a very strong dose of skepticism as that's certainly what I meant with my reply.

What he has witnessed is so far fact, but what I meant to convey is that 'Mav you been round long enough to know that this ain't how things work'

Time will tell, maybe this time is different.

Certainly no reason that prefect landings cannot be engineered.

But if you think Orr and G Robertson can engineer a perfect landing then I have something to sell you.

Remember.

If you want a 6% return and you are getting $650 a week in rent with a massive 50% margin (margin is under unprecedented attack) then you can only pay $280k

In other words 280k is overvalued for most of our provincial housing stock.

[RTM]

Yes....what I was really thinking was....hmmmm remember us recently discussing how accurate these guys were with respect to House Price Forecasts prior to COVID...and now we suddenly believe them. And....do we really, does the gov'ment really want house prices to recover ? A couple of bits highlighted below.



This is what we're talking about eh? The ANZ report.

https://t.co/2vYvJuIaiN


I hope Mav was posting his view 'It has been the most pleasant economy reshape I`ve ever witnessed' with a very strong dose of skepticism as that's certainly what I meant with my reply.

What he has witnessed is so far fact, but what I meant to convey is that 'Mav you been round long enough to know that this ain't how things work'

Time will tell, maybe this time is different.

Certainly no reason that prefect landings cannot be engineered.

But if you think Orr and G Robertson can engineer a perfect landing then I have something to sell you.

Remember.

If you want a 6% return and you are getting $650 a week in rent with a massive 50% margin (margin is under unprecedented attack) then you can only pay $280k

In other words 280k is overvalued for most of our provincial housing stock.

[SailorRob]

Yes....what I was really thinking was....hmmmm remember us recently discussing how accurate these guys were with respect to House Price Forecasts prior to COVID...and now we suddenly believe them. And....do we really, does the gov'ment really want house prices to recover ? A couple of bits highlighted below.


No 'we' don't believe them, seems like Mav likes the work they have presented but perhaps more on a return to normal turnover basis.

I can't see why turnover wont at least move towards more normal levels, but I would not have a clue. Perhaps turnover since the GFC has been higher than what a normal society requires in the from of non speculative transactional volume?

But ANZ have negative predictive ability, in other words if you went opposed to their predictions over the years you would end up having some ability to actually predict what was going to happen.

[Rawz]

I wouldnt trust the bank economists. Probably worried about their security position on loans in arrears. Give a good pump is the answer.

I remember when the previous ANZ NZ CEO David something a few years back did a write up in the NZ herald taking the high road saying the RBNZ needed to put deposit limits on mortgages so that the market didnt overheat. I asked someone one high up near the senior leadership team what that was all about and he laughed and said ANZ was running out of money to lend because if equity requirements and the CEO didnt want to lose market share lol...... answer was to force everyone to lend less

Bank reports are purely for themselves......

[X-men]

Sally Evans... director bought 60000 shares at 79c

[SailorRob]

I wouldnt trust the bank economists. Probably worried about their security position on loans in arrears. Give a good pump is the answer.

I remember when the previous ANZ NZ CEO David something a few years back did a write up in the NZ herald taking the high road saying the RBNZ needed to put deposit limits on mortgages so that the market didnt overheat. I asked someone one high up near the senior leadership team what that was all about and he laughed and said ANZ was running out of money to lend because if equity requirements and the CEO didnt want to lose market share lol...... answer was to force everyone to lend less

Bank reports are purely for themselves......


Great post and should be damned obvious.

These banks are leveraged way more than what people realise, if you look at assets vs equity and don't bother with all Orrs complex tier 1xyz ratios etc.

It only takes a slight mismanagement on the asset side (loan book) to totally wipe them out.

[SailorRob]

Sally Evans... director bought 60000 shares at 79c


Very nice, this is what we want to see.

[RTM]

Really ? Will support the price going up.


Very nice, this is what we want to see.

Not looking forward to reinvesting my next dividend like I was a few weeks ago.

[SailorRob]

Really ? Will support the price going up.


Yes, what would be ideal is large insider purchases with a falling share price.

What I mean is that directors buying shows confidence in the business, I never want a falling share price due to declining business fundamentals, I only want a declining share price with no change or an improvement in the business.

If the present value of net future cash flows falls and the share price falls as well then that is not a desirable outcome.

It 'should' support the price going up, but that's not what I want. And often it has no affect.

[Maverick]

No 'we' don't believe them, seems like Mav likes the work they have presented but perhaps more on a return to normal turnover basis.

Bingo Sailor...its all about turnover returning to normal.

Here some math's to help with this logic.
The selling prices and margin figures stated for the full year mask the even more impressive HY2 figures . By this I mean the 2HY figures are even stronger than presented as the figures in the full year are an average of 1HY and 2HY. When the 1HY prices ( already up nicely) are removed OCAs HY2 are almost unbelievably strong.

OCA new build margins in HY2 23 was 39%.(I jest you not).
Here's the new sales prices 2HY23 compared to PCP
Villas +8.5%
Apartments + 14.5%
Care suites +16%

Resales of villas and apartments continue with a margin of 28%
and cares suits around the usual 14%.
Compared to PCP 2hy they are up;
Villas -1%
Apartments +65% (misleading growth here as they now lump new and resales together- but regardless - its impressive)
Care suites +7%

So the concoction of high Margins x high prices and now as we migrate to NORMAL turnover then that effect on profit is substantial. The holy trinity.

Rawz and RTM, the banks dont have to be right, but the all important mood set by them and the media are what got us into this deeply depressed property market and their reversing of this now is what will take us out. For fun, just look at the property headlines making news today compared to those just 2 months ago.

I'm not only talking only about investors sentiment per se, but also ( perhaps even more importantly) the hunkering down mentality that made house buyers and sellers to sit on their hands to " see what happens"....causing the depressed turnover.

I can clearly see through my workings that OCA as in the prime spot of the RVs to reap the most reward from turnover normalizing. You can see above the apartments are enjoying substantial gains while villas not so much. OCA are sitting on a powder keg of finished apartments ready to go.

...and then there's the Helier...

[SailorRob]

Bingo Sailor...its all about turnover returning to normal.

Here some math's to help with this logic.
The selling prices and margin figures stated for the full year mask the even more impressive HY2 figures . By this I mean the 2HY figures are even stronger than presented as the figures in the full year are an average of 1HY and 2HY. When the 1HY prices ( already up nicely) are removed OCAs HY2 are almost unbelievably strong.

OCA new build margins in HY2 23 was 39%.(I jest you not).
Here's the new sales prices 2HY23 compared to PCP
Villas +8.5%
Apartments + 14.5%
Care suites +16%

Resales of villas and apartments continue with a margin of 28%
and cares suits around the usual 14%.
Compared to PCP 2hy they are up;
Villas -1%
Apartments +65% (misleading growth here as they now lump new and resales together- but regardless - its impressive)
Care suites +7%

So the concoction of high Margins x high prices and now as we migrate to NORMAL turnover then that effect on profit is substantial. The holy trinity.

Rawz and RTM, the banks dont have to be right, but the all important mood set by them and the media are what got us into this deeply depressed property market and their reversing of this now is what will take us out. For fun, just look at the property headlines making news today compared to those just 2 months ago.

I'm not only talking only about investors sentiment per se, but also ( perhaps even more importantly) the hunkering down mentality that made house buyers and sellers to sit on their hands to " see what happens"....causing the depressed turnover.

I can clearly see through my workings that OCA as in the prime spot of the RVs to reap the most reward from turnover normalizing. You can see above the apartments are enjoying substantial gains while villas not so much. OCA are sitting on a powder keg of finished apartments ready to go.

...and then there's the Helier...

Great post thanks Mav.

Could you do a rough hypothetical on where the money would flow if the 370 million of unsold stock sold in one financial year, like what of that drops to bottom line, what is revenue in advance or 'float' etc. Maybe just rough percentages.

Cheers

[nztx]

God forbid .. some of the pressure appears to be escaping .. what's happened now ? :)

[SailorRob]

God forbid .. some of the pressure appears to be escaping .. what's happened now ? :)

When was there any pressure?

[nztx]

When was there any pressure?


must have been some yesterday .. if today has seen reverse gear ..

[SailorRob]

must have been some yesterday .. if today has seen reverse gear ..

Think about 2030. Not today or yesterday.

[nztx]

Think about 2030. Not today or yesterday.


sounds like slow sailing, my friend :)

[winner69]

Sally Evans... director bought 60000 shares at 79c

Her previous purchases have been $1.10 / $1.23 / $1.04 / $1.33 and $1.05. Sally also collected a few more shares in the DRP

Sally must have thought Christmas arrived early being able to get some more at 79 cents

Good timing as well …..champagne time and pivot or whatever Mav called it

Always good to see insiders buying …I’m sure she’ll do better this time

[Maverick]

Great post thanks Mav.

Could you do a rough hypothetical on where the money would flow if the 370 million of unsold stock sold in one financial year, like what of that drops to bottom line, what is revenue in advance or 'float' etc. Maybe just rough percentages.

Cheers
I think what you are wanting is to quantify just how much extra profit will be released when this over hang of stock dissolves?

If OCA sell their current excess completed new apartment build up down to normal inventory levels ( about 100 ) then that will release $30m profit.
Then if their new Care suites reduce to there normal levels of stock (about 250) then that will yield $10m profit.

You decide for yourself how fast this will bleed onto the regular profits. My thinking is 1-1.5 years depending on how quickly normal market turnover resumes.

These profits are over and above the $32-$33m they made on new sales each of the last 2 years.

Then of course this all leads to impressive gains on the DMFs thereafter. "A snowball effect" as Ferg calls it.

Is that what you wanted?

[SailorRob]

I think what you are wanting is to quantify just how much extra profit will be released when this over hang of stock dissolves?

If OCA sell their current excess completed new apartment build up down to normal inventory levels ( about 100 ) then that will release $30m profit.
Then if their new Care suites reduce to there normal levels of stock (about 250) then that will yield $10m profit.

You decide for yourself how fast this will bleed onto the regular profits. My thinking is 1-1.5 years depending on how quickly normal market turnover resumes.

These profits are over and above the $32-$33m they made on new sales each of the last 2 years.

Then of course this all leads to impressive gains on the DMFs thereafter. "A snowball effect" as Ferg calls it.

Is that what you wanted?

That's very helpful yes but I'm just as interested in the DMF and occupation rights money as well.

So was wondering what cash flows the sell down would generate, not just in profit but in money that will be used by OCA while not necessarily belonging to shareholders.

Which I think you're referring to at the end with the snowball reference.

Would be good to just see where that 370 million flows. I assume a lot flows via cash flow to another section of the balance sheet.

[SailorRob]

sounds like slow sailing, my friend :)

Slow and steady wins the race.

Check my post about OCA reaching $2 by 2040 and how wealthy that would make me depending on how long it stays sub $1 for.

[justakiwi]

I don't believe it will take that long. Sorry to disappoint you ;)


Slow and steady wins the race.

Check my post about OCA reaching $2 by 2040 and how wealthy that would make me depending on how long it stays sub $1 for.

[bull....]

Her previous purchases have been $1.10 / $1.23 / $1.04 / $1.33 and $1.05. Sally also collected a few more shares in the DRP

Sally must have thought Christmas arrived early being able to get some more at 79 cents

Good timing as well …..champagne time and pivot or whatever Mav called it

Always good to see insiders buying …I’m sure she’ll do better this time

she read sailor rob's writings and thought if the price stays under a dollar and i keep buying for another 20yrs ill be loaded even if its still 70c

[SailorRob]

she read sailor rob's writings and thought if the price stays under a dollar and i keep buying for another 20yrs ill be loaded even if its still 70c

Exactly. My dividend would be about 100% return on investment and earnings maybe 300%.

Exactly like I am with ARLP right now.

Another term for my writings is 'maths'

[bull....]

Exactly. My dividend would be about 100% return on investment and earnings maybe 300%.

Exactly like I am with ARLP right now.

Another term for my writings is 'maths'

i dont understand your maths

if you invested 10000 in oca at 80c and its paying a lets say .026 cps / annum div ( based on current div of .013 ) that is a div return of $260 gross / annum

so does that mean your going to get a 100% return from your div in approx 30 + yrs ? lol i must be seeing something wrong with this ? surely .. that be without re-investing the div


oh ok so if you re-invest the div it be just under 5yrs ... correct ... you can tell me if my maths is close

[SailorRob]

i dont understand your maths

if you invested 10000 in oca at 80c and its paying a lets say .026 cps / annum div ( based on current div of .013 ) that is a div return of $260 gross / annum

so does that mean your going to get a 100% return from your div in approx 30 + yrs ? lol i must be seeing something wrong with this ? surely .. that be without re-investing the div


oh ok so if you re-invest the div it be just under 5yrs ... correct ... you can tell me if my maths is close


I mean in 20 years my dividend would be more than 80c a share, so in the case that the shares are still under a dollar, that would be a reasonable yield.

[Greekwatchdog]

More positive signs. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/aucklands-biggest-real-estate-agency-reports-big-may-sales-jump/73KMB4NCCJB3JIMMQEP5DZS7OE/

[bull....]

I mean in 20 years my dividend would be more than 80c a share, so in the case that the shares are still under a dollar, that would be a reasonable yield.

yep , but you would make more wouldnt you if stock rises over time + dividends than if stock stays under 1 dollar
( dont really get your thinking about wanting a stock to stay low fore ever , but i get that your get more share's in drp by stock price staying low for a greater lenght of time than zooming away straight away but to me the math's in the long term you want the price to eventually rise dont you )

[Gerald]

yep , but you would make more wouldnt you if stock rises over time + dividends than if stock stays under 1 dollar
( dont really get your thinking about wanting a stock to stay low fore ever , but i get that your get more share's in drp by stock price staying low for a greater lenght of time than zooming away straight away but to me the math's in the long term you want the price to eventually rise dont you )

Isn't the story over the long term 80% of equity returns are dividends vs 20% capital, and the capital is concentrated in the concentrated in the ones that haven't gone bankrupt yet. Interesting how everyone likes to chase that 20% though.

[SailorRob]

yep , but you would make more wouldnt you if stock rises over time + dividends than if stock stays under 1 dollar
( dont really get your thinking about wanting a stock to stay low fore ever , but i get that your get more share's in drp by stock price staying low for a greater lenght of time than zooming away straight away but to me the math's in the long term you want the price to eventually rise dont you )


Yeah, you answered it really but the effects of each scenario need to be seen to be believed. You want to rise eventually but the lower for the longer the better.

Posted this a while back but it explains the math.

From here to $2 over the next 18 years, the share price would produce a compounded 4.1% return. If dividends kept in lockstep (so the yield remained the same and the dividend also grew at 4.1%) and you paid 25% tax on the dividend and then reinvested into the company at the prevailing share price you would compound your investment at 7.92%.


Now if the share price stayed at 97c for the first 10 years and then grew steadily to $2 by the 18th year, you'd compound at 8.75%, but if the share price stayed at 97c for 17 years before jumping to $2, then you'd compound at a phenomenal 9.5%. This would turn a million into 5.5 million. At the original 7.92% it would be 4.41 million.

Obviously the share price staying static while dividends grow is unlikley, but this shows the effect of having a share price go nowhere. The longer it stays lower the better and you can of course commit external capital.

Given the choice 999 of 1000 investors would want and pray for only $3.46 million and reject the $5.5 million, throwing away 2 million dollars as they prey for the share price to go up NOW which would mean only getting a compound 6.92% return.

[justakiwi]

Sometimes money isn't everything ;)

I'd be happy with 1 million - more money doesn't guarantee more happiness.

(But yes, I get what you are saying)




Given the choice 999 of 1000 investors would want and pray for only $3.46 million and reject the $5.5 million, throwing away 2 million dollars as they prey for the share price to go up NOW which would mean only getting a compound 6.92% return.

[SailorRob]

Sometimes money isn't everything ;)

I'd be happy with 1 million - more money doesn't guarantee more happiness.

(But yes, I get what you are saying)

Ok fixed it for you. Changed the numbers so they are relevant.

More money at a certain level doesn't guarantee more happiness, but having a bit lying round for unforeseen circumstances, or to give breathing room if lose job, or if a loved one needs help... It certainly makes life a lot easier.


From here to $2 over the next 18 years, the share price would produce a compounded 4.1% return. If dividends kept in lockstep (so the yield remained the same and the dividend also grew at 4.1%) and you paid 25% tax on the dividend and then reinvested into the company at the prevailing share price you would compound your investment at 7.92%.


Now if the share price stayed at 97c for the first 10 years and then grew steadily to $2 by the 18th year, you'd compound at 8.75%, but if the share price stayed at 97c for 17 years before jumping to $2, then you'd compound at a phenomenal 9.5%. This would turn a thousand into $5,500. At the original 7.92% it would be $4,400.

Obviously the share price staying static while dividends grow is unlikely, but this shows the effect of having a share price go nowhere. The longer it stays lower the better and you can of course commit external capital.

Given the choice 999 of 1000 investors would want and pray for only $3,460 and reject the $5,500, throwing away 2 thousand dollars as they prey for the share price to go up NOW which would mean only getting a compound 6.92% return.

[Ferg]

That's very helpful yes but I'm just as interested in the DMF and occupation rights money as well.

So was wondering what cash flows the sell down would generate, not just in profit but in money that will be used by OCA while not necessarily belonging to shareholders.

Which I think you're referring to at the end with the snowball reference.

Would be good to just see where that 370 million flows. I assume a lot flows via cash flow to another section of the balance sheet.

You are correct. Assuming the $370m is sold in one year and that value is collected, then that adds $370m to cash and $370m to the ORA liability (what you call the 'float'). What happens next depends on a few factors, in particular the mix of sales and the management fee percentages (currently 30%).

Proceeds from new sales must be applied to the development facility (balance at FY23 was $221m). So the first $221m pays off the development facility with the remaining $149m going into general coffers.

The $370m cash will play out over about 8 years. Assuming 32% development margin that gives a boost to the first year underlying profit of $118m. But that is an accounting construct that is not necessarily related to cash (it is indirectly but that is another story).

Assuming sales by value are 10% care suites, 50% apartments and 40% villas, then OCA gets to keep $111m of the float, with the values in the P&L varying each year. Peak P&L contribution from DMF is ~$21m in years 2 and 3.

The values pertaining to the sales of $370m stocks will play out as follows:





debit
credit
credit
credit


Summary Financials $m
Cash
Nett ORA Liab.
Unearned DMF (B/S)
Cum. Profits


Year 1
$370.00
$331.15
$28.28
$10.57


2
$370.00
$294.15
$44.14
$31.71


3
$370.00
$259.00
$58.15
$52.85


4
$344.10
$233.10
$38.86
$72.14


5
$344.10
$233.10
$21.42
$89.58


6
$214.60
$103.60
$9.53
$101.47


7
$214.60
$103.60
$3.19
$107.81


8
$111.00
$0.00
$0.00
$111.00



Please note these values exclude cash expenditure for operations, cost recovery recharges, any premium care income, any residents share of gains and I have ignored GST on the management fees for simplicity purposes. The care suite would be available for sale again in year 4, the apartment would be available for resale in year 6 and the villa in year 8 (working with average expected tenures). The funds needed to repay the nett ORA liability on departure will be sourced from the incoming resident. The incoming resident has historically paid a higher incoming price resulting in a "resale gain" and the DMF accumulation restarts.

Management Fees are charged to clients 15/10/5% in years 1/2/3 for care suites, and 10/10/10% for units. BUT these values are released to the P&L over the expected tenure of the resident. I used 3 years for c/suites, 5 years for apartments and 7 years for villas. So yes there is a lot of shuffling of funds on the Balance Sheet.

Initial accounting entries:
Dr Debtors -> Cash -> Dev Facility $370m
Cr ORA Liability $370m

Annual Management Fee Charge for first 3 years:
Dr Mgmt Fee Receivable (Balance Sheet)
Cr Deferred Management Fee (Balance Sheet)

Monthly Management Fees Earned (based on tenure)
Dr Deferred Management Fee (Balance Sheet)
Cr DMF Income (P&L)

Note the "Mgmt Fee Recievable" on the Balance Sheet is shown as a deduction from the ORA liability. I have presented such Nett figures above.

Combine increased sales of suites and units with an increasing sale price, and there is a snowball effect which can be seen in the history of DMF earned.

Edit: another assumption in the workings above is the average sale takes place half way through the first fiscal year.

[SailorRob]

Incredible thanks Ferg, this really hammers home the model and snowball effect.

Couple of questions in blue;



You are correct. Assuming the $370m is sold in one year and that value is collected, then that adds $370m to cash and $370m to the ORA liability (what you call the 'float'). What happens next depends on a few factors, in particular the mix of sales and the management fee percentages (currently 30%).

Proceeds from new sales must be applied to the development facility (balance at FY23 was $221m). So the first $221m pays off the development facility with the remaining $149m going into general coffers.

The $370m cash will play out over about 8 years. Assuming 32% development margin that gives a boost to the first year underlying profit of $118m. But that is an accounting construct that is not necessarily related to cash (it is indirectly but that is another story). I understand the accounting construct vs cash, but not the boost to underlying profit of 118 mil in the first year. Will it all attribute to that same year of the sales (assuming the whole lot is sold down in one year)?

Assuming sales by value are 10% care suites, 50% apartments and 40% villas, then OCA gets to keep $111m of the float, with the values in the P&L varying each year. Peak P&L contribution from DMF is ~$21m in years 2 and 3.

The values pertaining to the sales of $370m stocks will play out as follows

The table makes sense to me apart from the cash in the left column remaining at $370 for the first 3 years?




debit
credit
credit
credit


Summary Financials $m
Cash
Nett ORA Liab.
Unearned DMF (B/S)
Cum. Profits


Year 1
$370.00
$331.15
$28.28
$10.57


2
$370.00
$294.15
$44.14
$31.71


3
$370.00
$259.00
$58.15
$52.85


4
$344.10
$233.10
$38.86
$72.14


5
$344.10
$233.10
$21.42
$89.58


6
$214.60
$103.60
$9.53
$101.47


7
$214.60
$103.60
$3.19
$107.81


8
$111.00
$0.00
$0.00
$111.00



Please note these values exclude cash expenditure for operations, cost recovery recharges, any premium care income, any residents share of gains and I have ignored GST on the management fees for simplicity purposes. The care suite would be available for sale again in year 4, the apartment would be available for resale in year 6 and the villa in year 8 (working with average expected tenures). The funds needed to repay the nett ORA liability on departure will be sourced from the incoming resident. The incoming resident has historically paid a higher incoming price resulting in a "resale gain" and the DMF accumulation restarts.

Management Fees are charged to clients 15/10/5% in years 1/2/3 for care suites, and 10/10/10% for units. BUT these values are released to the P&L over the expected tenure of the resident. I used 3 years for c/suites, 5 years for apartments and 7 years for villas. So yes there is a lot of shuffling of funds on the Balance Sheet.

Initial accounting entries:
Dr Debtors -> Cash -> Dev Facility $370m
Cr ORA Liability $370m

Annual Management Fee Charge for first 3 years:
Dr Mgmt Fee Receivable (Balance Sheet)
Cr Deferred Management Fee (Balance Sheet)

Monthly Management Fees Earned (based on tenure)
Dr Deferred Management Fee (Balance Sheet)
Cr DMF Income (P&L)

Note the "Mgmt Fee Recievable" on the Balance Sheet is shown as a deduction from the ORA liability. I have presented such Nett figures above.

Combine increased sales of suites and units with an increasing sale price, and there is a snowball effect which can be seen in the history of DMF earned.

Edit: another assumption in the workings above is the average sale takes place half way through the first fiscal year.

[Ferg]

Yes development gains are booked in the period they are sold - for each unit and care suite. So if all are sold in the period at 32% development margin, that gives a one time boost to underlying profit in that year of $118m. Keep in mind there is a policy/some rules around when a sale can be recognised but that is within the margins.

The cash stays at $370m for the first 3 years given I assumed all sales occurred exactly half way through the first year. Using an average tenure of 3 years for care suites, means the 70% of ORA remaining would be paid out at 3.5 years, assuming there is no delay. Hence the first fall in cash was modelled during year 4. The likelihood is that some clients will depart prior to the 3 years so the reality is some of the ORAs would be repaid earlier - but I was working purely with simple averages of expected tenures and trying to model the impact on an average fiscal year, instead of assuming all sales occurred on day 1.

[SailorRob]

Yes development gains are booked in the period they are sold - for each unit and care suite. So if all are sold in the period at 32% development margin, that gives a one time boost to underlying profit in that year of $118m. Keep in mind there is a policy/some rules around when a sale can be recognised but that is within the margins.

The cash stays at $370m for the first 3 years given I assumed all sales occurred exactly half way through the first year. Using an average tenure of 3 years for care suites, means the 70% of ORA remaining would be paid out at 3.5 years, assuming there is no delay. Hence the first fall in cash was modelled during year 4. The likelihood is that some clients will depart prior to the 3 years so the reality is some of the ORAs would be repaid earlier - but I was working purely with simple averages of expected tenures and trying to model the impact on an average fiscal year, instead of assuming all sales occurred on day 1.


Some top notch work Ferg and exactly the detail I was looking for.

Thank you very much.

[SailorRob]

"With cyclical problems, there is usually an industry-wide or an economy-wide recession in corporate profitability. Assuming we have correctly diagnosed the problems to be cyclical, which isn’t always easy to do, the restoration of past profitability is a matter of when, not if. Typical cycles last anywhere from 12 to 36 months, but there is no way that I know of to predict the length of any specific cycle.


However, that is exactly what most market participants try to do. They sit there, and pointlessly try to guess when the cycle is about to turn. Why? Because they don’t want to buy the stock too far in advance of the turn in profits, for fear of having it not appreciate, or worse, go down further for some period of time. So there they are, using methods not too far removed from reading chicken guts, guessing which quarter or in which half of which year the cycle will turn, so that they can be smart and buy the stock 3-6 months ahead of such a turn and have it appreciate soon thereafter".

How many are trying to do this with OCA?

I am told it is easy using crossing moving averages.

[RTM]

I am told it is easy using crossing moving averages.

You will need to buy some more screens Rob. Hopeless with just one.

[SailorRob]

You will need to buy some more screens Rob. Hopeless with just one.

Yes 2 screens are very useful when populating a spreadsheet from annual reports, or 10k's.

[bull....]

good analysis ferg

now of course its hypothical at this stage weather they will receive all that money but they reall y do need to start investing in AI

Ai can streamline op's
improve efficiency and performance of slack staff
optimize scheduling
data driven decision making
health outcomes can be optimised by data

the list can go on and on but AI is one way OCA can get the costs down on the care side

and yes you will need more than 1 screen to use AI efficiently

[justakiwi]

AI may have a part to play in the administration/finance departments, but as I have said many times before, AI cannot take the place of hands on, on the ground, care staff - regardless of whether you are talking about RNs or caregivers. Have you any idea what caregivers or RNs actually do during the course of a shift? Do you seriously think AI can replace a human for personal care tasks, medication administration, wound care, bed making, answering call bells, serving meals, assisting with mobilising, and the myriad of other aspects of the job. Let alone provide emotional support, companionship, reassurance, and loving consideration.

By the way, decision making and health outcomes are already "data driven" - just so you know.





the list can go on and on but AI is one way OCA can get the costs down on the care side

[ValueNZ]

good analysis ferg

now of course its hypothical at this stage weather they will receive all that money but they reall y do need to start investing in AI

Ai can streamline op's
improve efficiency and performance of slack staff
optimize scheduling
data driven decision making
health outcomes can be optimised by data

the list can go on and on but AI is one way OCA can get the costs down on the care side

and yes you will need more than 1 screen to use AI efficiently
How can AI streamline operations, improve efficiency and all of which you listed? You have to be trolling right...

[Fortunecookie]

How can AI streamline operations, improve efficiency and all of which you listed? You have to be trolling right...

I'm no chess player. But have you seen the AI capability in this game setting.

So apply that in a the workplace setting.

[bull....]

AI may have a part to play in the administration/finance departments, but as I have said many times before, AI cannot take the place of hands on, on the ground, care staff - regardless of whether you are talking about RNs or caregivers. Have you any idea what caregivers or RNs actually do during the course of a shift? Do you seriously think AI can replace a human for personal care tasks, medication administration, wound care, bed making, answering call bells, serving meals, assisting with mobilising, and the myriad of other aspects of the job. Let alone provide emotional support, companionship, reassurance, and loving consideration.

By the way, decision making and health outcomes are already "data driven" - just so you know.

its about ensuring humans are productive as posibble with there time , not about replacing humans although the data may suggest you dont need so many humans

[bull....]

How can AI streamline operations, improve efficiency and all of which you listed? You have to be trolling right...

you answered already ... improve efficiency , automate

RV providers by imbracing AI would possibly make the care side of the operations more profitable to RV operators

never know AI might suggest minced bugs are more protein providing than processed foods served now ( i kid you not about minced bugs , it is being researched and developed now as an alternative food source )

obviously if OCA embraced this AI stuff i believe a re-rating of the stock is possible as OCA is one of the biggest care side businesses

[Curly]

you answered already ... improve efficiency , automate

RV providers by imbracing AI would possibly make the care side of the operations more profitable to RV operators

never know AI might suggest minced bugs are more protein providing than processed foods served now ( i kid you not about minced bugs , it is being researched and developed now as an alternative food source )

obviously if OCA embraced this AI stuff i believe a re-rating of the stock is possible as OCA is one of the biggest care side businesses
Yes, there is much going on in this world that is unbelievably evil.

[justakiwi]

That kind of comment is why some caregivers are focussed solely on tasks and so-called "productivity," rather than quality interactions with the people they care for. Others of us try hard to do both, pushing ourselves to the point where we burn out and end up giving up the job we love, for our own well-being.

You are trolling, and I should know better than to let you wind me up.


its about ensuring humans are productive as posibble with there time , not about replacing humans although the data may suggest you dont need so many humans

[SailorRob]

It's truly astounding that this thread will endlessly debate such nonsense as what the share price will do next, what the fall in share price is telling us about capital raising, the macro economy, house prices and now... How AI will save OCA.

Ferg posted some incredible analysis delving deep into the numbers that actually tell the OCA story and... Crickets.

The fact we are discussing AI and it's relevance to OCA is mind blowing.

How about some deep discussion around Fergs numbers?

Of course it's not hypothetical that OCA will get that cash. Everything will sell it's just a matter of time. And then it will sell again...

[Greekwatchdog]

you answered already ... improve efficiency , automate

RV providers by imbracing AI would possibly make the care side of the operations more profitable to RV operators

never know AI might suggest minced bugs are more protein providing than processed foods served now ( i kid you not about minced bugs , it is being researched and developed now as an alternative food source )

obviously if OCA embraced this AI stuff i believe a re-rating of the stock is possible as OCA is one of the biggest care side businesses

Bull, where do you dream this crap up? This is a peoples business end of story. Nurses/Care Givers will always be no # 1 preference and I would be horrified to think OCA management would think along this line.

[Fortunecookie]

I think there is a place for automation. If you have gone to an airport recently you will have seen those industrial robot mops/vacuum cleaner. Some restaurants have started using robot servers. Some of the work is labourous and routine. So I think there is an opportunity to apply AI in certain areas without sacrificing the personal human care.

[justakiwi]

There isn't. Anyone who believes there is, clearly has no understanding of the realities of ageing, or what "residential aged care" actually is. I honestly think some of you need to spend a day in a rest home, hospital wing or dementia unit.

As Sailor Rob said, this is a ridiculous conversation to even be having. If we got away from the value-less side tracking topics, we might actually be able to have a decent OCA discussion.



I think there is a place for automation. If you have gone to an airport recently you will have seen those industrial robot mops/vacuum cleaner. Some restaurants have started using robot servers. Some of the work is labourous and routine. So I think there is an opportunity to apply AI in certain areas without sacrificing the personal human care.

[ValueNZ]

It's truly astounding that this thread will endlessly debate such nonsense as what the share price will do next, what the fall in share price is telling us about capital raising, the macro economy, house prices and now... How AI will save OCA.

Ferg posted some incredible analysis delving deep into the numbers that actually tell the OCA story and... Crickets.

The fact we are discussing AI and it's relevance to OCA is mind blowing.

How about some deep discussion around Fergs numbers?

Of course it's not hypothetical that OCA will get that cash. Everything will sell it's just a matter of time. And then it will sell again...
Fergs analysis on the unsold stock is great. It would be interesting to estimate the return earned on the float as well as continual reselling of the units/care suites and include that in the profit figures.

[bull....]

I think there is a place for automation. If you have gone to an airport recently you will have seen those industrial robot mops/vacuum cleaner. Some restaurants have started using robot servers. Some of the work is labourous and routine. So I think there is an opportunity to apply AI in certain areas without sacrificing the personal human care.

Robotic's , AI etc etc its the future and like you say all this can free up time where the human's can spend more quality time feeding insect protein to our elder's and having a good chat

[Fortunecookie]

Robotic's , AI etc etc its the future and like you say all this can free up time where the human's can spend more quality time feeding insect protein to our elder's and having a good chat

I think in the medium to long term there will be a huge challenge to acquire the workers due to the changing demographics (yes notice the irony).

I also think there is a greater issue or trade off at play. As much as we need more workers (likely source from overseas), this places pressure on infrastructure i.e housing, roads, services etc. So if robotics, AI etc can address some aspects and assist, surely this is killing two birds with one stone.

Edit: when I think of workers. I think of the different type of workers, just just strictly care workers which is important. I am thinking workers like gardeners who maintain the gardens, cleaners, kitchen staff etc. Tools that will assist.

[bull....]

I think in the medium to long term there will be a huge challenge to acquire the workers due to the changing demographics (yes notice the irony).

I also think there is a greater issue or trade off at play. As much as we need more workers (likely source from overseas), this places pressure on infrastructure i.e housing, roads, services etc. So if robotics, AI etc can address some aspects and assist, surely this is killing two birds with one stone.

Edit: when I think of workers. I think of the different type of workers, just just strictly care workers which is important. I am thinking workers like gardeners who maintain the gardens, cleaners, kitchen staff etc. Tools that will assist.

worker shortages could become common in the future due to declining demographics , AI & robotics will help

[Ferg]

How about some deep discussion around Fergs numbers?

Of course it's not hypothetical that OCA will get that cash. Everything will sell it's just a matter of time. And then it will sell again...

Quite right Rob and thanks for your words.

The maths is quite simple given the Management Fee is 30% of the ORA value. 30% of the ORA value is retained, it's just a question of when the other 70%* is repaid. I don't know if the 30% Management Fee includes GST or if it is charged on top - I imagine it would be on top but it would be nice to have that confirmed. If GST is on top then it is immaterial for cash flow analysis purposes, whereas if 30% includes GST then the management fee retained would be closer to 26%. It is rare to use GST inclusive numbers, unless discussing a retail perspective.

*I say 70% but I imagine there would be additional deductions from the original ORA value. Also keep in mind, this repayment is usually funded by the incoming resident.

The only complicated factor I can see is releasing the Management Fee into the P&L over the expected tenures of the various clients. I believe OCA (and other RVs) use a standard and simple 1/n methodology for each type of thing sold (being a care suite, apartment or villa). The value of the management fee is divided into the average expected tenure and is released to the P&L accordingly. I don't imagine they would do that for each resident like an insurance actuary calculation given a) the admin time, effort and cost involved for what benefit..? and b) imagine the bad PR if a resident found out OCA was running an amortisation/actuarial model on their expected remaining life. The average tenures I used were lifted from a previous annual report - I don't know if those average tenures have changed in the latest report.


It would be interesting to estimate the return earned on the float as well as continual reselling of the units/care suites and include that in the profit figures.
I agree ValueNZ. That is where it gets interesting.

There is a constant flow of thing being sold being new builds and resales. Historically each sale has on average been higher than either the development cost or the previous sale**. This translates to ever higher management fees, but also additional costs (especially for new builds). To model this on a per site basis is relatively complex given the lack of site and stock data we have, so I tend to run with the big numbers. But if you want to model it you overlay annual tranches of new sales and resale values over multiple years. The snowball effect is obvious given expiring ORAs (and by definition the management fee component) are based on average values from 3-7 years ago, depending on what is being sold.

**I imagine such gains on resale would be after refurbishment costs . I'm not clear if these are paid for by OCA or the outgoing resident but this is marginal stuff not worth getting hooked up on.

Another really interesting aspect is their infographic that shows the $221m development facility that has been spent, and what those items are currently worth. Look it up. I know new sales must repay the development facility, but I don't know if this is ringfenced to each development or must be repaid off the facility in totality. For instance, the Pukekohe land was funded via the development facility but I don't know if that will be repaid from funding from just Pukekohe sales in future, or whether proceeds from the sale of Awatere & St Heliers (for instance) must be used to repay all of that facility. Again it is marginal stuff but interesting nonetheless. But what I do know is that if development slows then less cash will be needed from the development facility, and if all unsold stock is sold, then that facility will be repaid and OCA starts to produce chunky cash flows. Keep in mind this is only looking at ORAs and Management Fees - I have not addressed any cost escalations and care underfunding.

[SailorRob]

Im a big fan of Tony Alexander’s work on all this . His work is strongly pointing to the property market bottoming about now. So I thinking the recovery of the Share price has already begun.


https://ndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz/delivery/DeliveryManagerServlet?dps_pid=IE79655584


Interestingly this has been removed from Tony Alexanders website. Pretty unbelievable really.

[bull....]

big buyer gone at 78

[Lego_Man]

big buyer gone at 78


I don't like to bag other posters, but these kind of running commentary posts on micro stock price/order book moves add no value, and are more reminiscent of hotcopper which we should try to avoid.

[SailorRob]

I don't like to bag other posters, but these kind of running commentary posts on micro stock price/order book moves add no value, and are more reminiscent of hotcopper which we should try to avoid.


Yes I was going to reply to Bull, and ask how his post was relevant to the earnings and market multiple to OCA 5 years out from now.

[bull....]

the ignorance of you two posters shows in your lack of understanding of markets.

of course is useless info for long term investors , for traders its of relevance

[Entrep]

Not that it excludes investors, but the site is called sharetrader not share5yearinvestor.co.nz

[SailorRob]

Not that it excludes investors, but the site is called sharetrader not share5yearinvestor.co.nz


Fair point.

5 years is far too short a time frame as well.

[Baa_Baa]

the ignorance of you two posters shows in your lack of understanding of markets.

of course is useless info for long term investors , for traders its of relevance

And you think an active trader isn't taking notice of the market price, so they need you to post the movements in the bid/ask depth otherwise they'd miss it? Lol

[bull....]

And you think an active trader isn't taking notice of the market price, so they need you to post the movements in the bid/ask depth otherwise they'd miss it? Lol

ignorance abounds , i was not even talking about depth lol. if you look at my posts middle of may on i kept saying there was a big buyer in the stock.
volume was satisfied on index rebalance day


my comment yesterday was in reference to those comments alluding to the fact now that the big buyer has gone the price at 78c

your not a trader baa baa so ignore my posts cause you dont understand them

[SailorRob]

ignorance abounds , i was not even talking about depth lol. if you look at my posts middle of may on i kept saying there was a big buyer in the stock.
volume was satisfied on index rebalance day


my comment yesterday was in have e to those comments alluding to the fact now that the big buyer has gone the price at 78c

your not a trader baa baa so ignore my posts cause you dont understand them

You have no idea what buyers and sellers there are at any time or bid/ask. What you see is just a little retail glimpse that they want too to see.

You're the product and that's why you consistently lose money trading.

[bottomfeeder]

Sometimes I think in the depth I am the only real buyer/seller, all the others are just set ups to suck me in. Then when I buy or sell all the others in the depth just disappear very quickly. Or perhaps my self and a few others are the only real ones.

Plus I am also a buyer/seller but I dont appear on the depth.

[SailorRob]

Sometimes I think in the depth I am the only real buyer/seller, all the others are just set ups to suck me in. Then when I buy or sell all the others in the depth just disappear very quickly. Or perhaps my self and a few others are the only real ones.

Plus I am also a buyer/seller but I dont appear on the depth.

Yeah, that's exactly what does happen, Flash Boys by Michael Lewis explains it all pretty well.

[Sideshow Bob]

DRP at $0.7754

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412956

[winner69]

DRP at $0.7754

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412956

Jeez 77.54 cents this time ..last time it was 80.41 cents

Some might say just confirms what a dog of a share OCA is

But others will say yippee, that’s good I’m getting 4.5% more shares than if price hadn’t fallen

[ValueNZ]

Jeez 77.54 cents this time ..last time it was 80.41 cents

Some might say just confirms what a dog of a share OCA is

But others will say yippee, that’s good I’m getting 4.5% more shares than if price hadn’t fallen
The share price keeps falling, but the company's balance sheet gets better and better each year. Soon enough, it'll materialise and OCA should do very well. Why would you be upset about getting a better deal on your reinvested dividends?

[Balance]

The share price keeps falling, but the company's balance sheet gets better and better each year. Soon enough, it'll materialise and OCA should do very well. Why would you be upset about getting a better deal on your reinvested dividends?

If it’s getting better, OCA would not have to sell assets and cut back the dividends?

[SailorRob]

If it’s getting better, OCA would not have to sell assets and cut back the dividends?

Thinking wrong way again Balance. They have opportunity to deploy capital at extremely attractive rates.

[nztx]

Will the current better get bettered shortly down the track ? :)

[Balance]

Thinking wrong way again Balance. They have opportunity to deploy capital at extremely attractive rates.

You just keep a thinking that while some of us hitch our wealth creation to stocks like Serko. You can patiently wait for the next 10 years for the return Serko has given us in 6 months!

Horses for courses as they say.

[BlackPeter]

You just keep a thinking that while some of us hitch our wealth creation to stocks like Serko. You can patiently wait for the next 10 years for the return Serko has given us in 6 months!

Horses for courses as they say.

Pretty ridiculous comparison. Just wondering why you took the last 6 months instead of the last 20 months where SKO destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars.

So - they bounced back a bit, didn't they?

Ah, I get it - you are saying SKO is a gamble, and OCA is an investment?

That's true ...

Do you really get a kick out of spreading this non-sense? Maybe you should contribute to the crypto part of this forum. They need people like you.

[Balance]

Pretty ridiculous comparison. Just wondering why you took the last 6 months instead of the last 20 months where SKO destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars.

So - they bounced back a bit, didn't they?

Ah, I get it - you are saying SKO is a gamble, and OCA is an investment?

That's true ...

Do you really get a kick out of spreading this non-sense? Maybe you should contribute to the crypto part of this forum. They need people like you.

So let's compare Serko with OCA :

Since IPO on May 5, 2017 at 79c, OCA has gone nowhere in 6 years (yes, six years) with its sp at 79c today. Ouch!

Since May 5, 2017, Serko has powered on from 35c to today's close at $3.55 - up 1000%.

Envy will get you nowhere, BP so just chill.

Timing is crucial and it’s obvious you have none.

[bull....]

You just keep a thinking that while some of us hitch our wealth creation to stocks like Serko. You can patiently wait for the next 10 years for the return Serko has given us in 6 months!

Horses for courses as they say.

or multi baggers like peb in a couple hrs

[SailorRob]

You just keep a thinking that while some of us hitch our wealth creation to stocks like Serko. You can patiently wait for the next 10 years for the return Serko has given us in 6 months!

Horses for courses as they say.


Of all your pathetic posts Balance, you have found a new low.

Rather than wait 10 years, I can point you to the fact that over the last 6 Months I have owned META in size, around 8% of my entire net worth.

Now META has returned 123% over that time vs your 40%...

Unlike you with Serko where you did not purchase 6 Months ago... (all you're doing is recouping the losses you made with your inheritance) I bought the bulk of my position at $98.

If I could be bothered I could figure out when you bought into Serko from your posts, but it's obvious you've lost money.

Horses for Courses Balance.

[bull....]

Ha sailor followed bull into meta good to see

[SailorRob]

Ha sailor followed bull into meta good to see


Yeah but I actually bought it in the real world...

[Balance]

Of all your pathetic posts Balance, you have found a new low.

Rather than wait 10 years, I can point you to the fact that over the last 6 Months I have owned META in size, around 8% of my entire net worth.

Now META has returned 123% over that time vs your 40%...

Unlike you with Serko where you did not purchase 6 Months ago... (all you're doing is recouping the losses you made with your inheritance) I bought the bulk of my position at $98.

If I could be bothered I could figure out when you bought into Serko from your posts, but it's obvious you've lost money.

Horses for Courses Balance.

So let's compare Serko with OCA :

Since IPO on May 5, 2017 at 79c, OCA has gone nowhere in 6 years (yes, six years) with its sp at 79c today. Ouch!

Since May 5, 2017, Serko has powered on from 35c to today's close at $3.55 - up 1000%.

Good on you with META but poor you with OCA! :scared:

[SailorRob]

So let's compare Serko with OCA :

Since IPO on May 5, 2017 at 79c, OCA has gone nowhere in 6 years (yes, six years) with its sp at 79c today. Ouch!

Since May 5, 2017, Serko has powered on from 35c to today's close at $3.55 - up 1000%.

Good on you with META but poor you with OCA! :scared:


Damn I must have forgot buying OCA on the IPO.

I just remember buying a large chunk at 42c selling at 86 and buying back at 86 about 2 years later.

So Balance, did you buy Serko on May 5th 2017?

Because I didn't buy OCA on the IPO, so why are we comparing?

Are we getting unbalanced again?

[Balance]

Damn I must have forgot buying OCA on the IPO.

I just remember buying a large chunk at 42c selling at 86 and buying back at 86 about 2 years later.

So Balance, did you buy Serko on May 5th 2017?

Because I didn't buy OCA on the IPO, so why are we comparing?

Are we getting unbalanced again?

I actually bought my Serko at 29c ( yes, twenty nine cents).

Whatsup challenged me and said he did the same so I bet him $1,000 to show he didn’t and I did.

He wisely backed down and mumbled something about betting being non-Christian! :p

[SailorRob]

I actually bought my Serko at 29c ( yes, twenty nine cents).

Whatsup challenged me and said he did the same so I bet him $1,000 to show he didn’t and I did.

He wisely backed down and mumbled something about betting being non-Christian! :p


I believe you, I doubt you got your whole position there, was only trading there for a very short time.

But well done nonetheless.

[SailorRob]

I actually bought my Serko at 29c ( yes, twenty nine cents).

Whatsup challenged me and said he did the same so I bet him $1,000 to show he didn’t and I did.

He wisely backed down and mumbled something about betting being non-Christian! :p


Lying isn't exactly good Christian behavior either I hope you pointed out.

[Balance]

I believe you, I doubt you got your whole position there, was only trading there for a very short time.

But well done nonetheless.

Thank you. SR. And well done on your good trades and investments as well.

Peace and goodwill to all.

[bull....]

savage :scared: what happens when sailor rob stops buying

[Gunner]

Respect the trend imo. The 10 and 20 ema on the weekly hasnt crossed. The last time it did, this was at $1.43 in 2021.

[SailorRob]

Just got off the phone to Bollinger, he said wait for the waxing crescent moon and the cross of the 7/13 aaemh pattern.

Then buy with outgoing tide.

Or did he say sell, I forget.

[Gunner]

Riding the stock down from $1.43 to $0.77 is not a good thing. The maths on the drawdown work against you plus the opportunity cost over 18 months.

[Baa_Baa]

Riding the stock down from $1.43 to $0.77 is not a good thing. The maths on the drawdown work against you plus the opportunity cost over 18 months.

That’s true but only if you don’t take into account the dividends or drp. In that scenario both are under water but one is considerably less so. I’m happy to accumulate via drp, another few thousand coming my way soon. Value investors don’t worry about the share price except whether they’re getting some or more at low prices.

[SailorRob]

Riding the stock down from $1.43 to $0.77 is not a good thing. The maths on the drawdown work against you plus the opportunity cost over 18 months.


Presumably being the richest man in NZ is a good thing.

Which if you can avoid drawdowns and participate in the upside only, you will quickly be.

I'm Gunner say you aint.

[Gunner]

Presumably being the richest man in NZ is a good thing.

Which if you can avoid drawdowns and participate in the upside only, you will quickly be.

I'm Gunner say you aint.

Ok but riding it down 50% over 20 months is not a good thing. I think most people would agree.

[SailorRob]

Ok but riding it down 50% over 20 months is not a good thing. I think most people would agree.


Correct and I would be one of them.

One of them to agree with your statement not one who has ridden it down.

[Gunner]

Correct and I would be one of them.



One of them to agree with your statement not one who has ridden it down.

That's good then. It's good to be open to new ideas.

[SailorRob]

That's good then. It's good to be open to new ideas.

It is yes.

Also good to be able to instantly see stupid ideas for what they are.

Good to be able to think rationally, use common sense and question the implications, if what you were being told was actually true.

So if presented with a new idea that the Earth isn't flat it's actually square, it's not good to be open to that idea.

5000 years ago, yes be open to it.

[Gunner]

It is yes.

Also good to be able to instantly see stupid ideas for what they are.

Good to be able to think rationally, use common sense and question the implications, if what you were being told was actually true.

So if presented with a new idea that the Earth isn't flat it's actually square, it's not good to be open to that idea.

5000 years ago, yes be open to it.

Riding a stock down 50% is not a good idea. 100% gain is required to break even and the opportunity cost.

[bottomfeeder]

Riding a stock down 50% is not a good idea. 100% gain is required to break even and the opportunity cost.

Another glass half full guy I see. Stating the obvious. However there are many permutations about buying on the way down, the company is way oversold, the company is valued at a whole lot more, the company is profitable, the company is in a stable industry and amongst other things, just about to benefit in value by the construction cost inflation index pricing its property portfolio through the roof.

Very easy to value a share (not necessarrilly accurately) based on current assumptions such as interest rates and current demand on the market. It is a bit more difficult to value a share basing it on future events which have not materialised. But a drop in SP of 50% for a property holding company which is profitable in an economy in recession would indicate that there is a large propensity for the SP to increase. Buying in now at these bargain basement prices is a no brainier.

[winner69]

ARV RYM and OCA all reported results late May

Since reporting-

RYM share price up 15%
ARV share price up 8%
OCA share price down 5%

Has to be a reflection of what the market thought of the results and future outlook of each

The long entrenched ' pecking order' in the retirement sector remains in place .......market telling us something

I doubt whether that relativity (pecking order) will change any time soon

[bottomfeeder]

ARV RYM and OCA all reported results late May

Since reporting-

RYM share price up 15%
ARV share price up 8%
OCA share price down 5%

Has to be a reflection of what the market thought of the results and future outlook of each

The long entrenched ' pecking order' in the retirement sector remains in place .......market telling us something

I doubt whether that relativity (pecking order) will change any time soon

Thats presuming the market is always right. Even though you have to live by the market, it has been proven many times that in the short term the market is wrong more than it is right. The market suggested that at $1.50 the market was right, but in the longer term it was fundamentally wrong.

[mike2020]

Or the market was right at $1.61 and then externals changed the outlook. Does anyone remember the banks being told to prepare for negative interest rates? We will all laugh about it one day. I don't see OCA as any different from 4 years ago, just the share price. Same issues, same potential.

[Baa_Baa]

ARV RYM and OCA all reported results late May

The RV sector SP's may have finished falling and bottomed out, all RV's are up since the date that each of them bottomed out. The relative performance is RYM, then ARV, SUM and OCA. The point is though, the best buying is behind us now, so don't miss out on the sector sale of the century.

RV Sector SP Relative Performance Since Bottoming:


Date Bottomed
What Bottomed
RYM since
ARV since
SUM since
OCA since



16-Mar

RYM

30.80%


16%


6.70%


0%




31-Mar

ARV

22.90%


32.30%


4.30%


1.40%




18-Apr

SUM

21.50%


16%


13.30%


4.20%




21-Apr

OCA

21.20%


18.30%


12.50%


8.80%




14641

[bottomfeeder]

Or the market was right at $1.61 and then externals changed the outlook. Does anyone remember the banks being told to prepare for negative interest rates? We will all laugh about it one day. I don't see OCA as any different from 4 years ago, just the share price. Same issues, same potential.

Could be the same now, market is right but externals are changing, recession does not usually breed higher interest rates. I wonder, in this economic climate its the chicken and egg story. Is it the market that is right or wrong, our are the future fundamentals that have been misjudged. Perhaps a bit of both. At different times more of one than the other.

[Maverick]

....the company is way oversold, the company is valued at a whole lot more, the company is profitable, the company is in a stable industry and amongst other things, just about to benefit in value by the construction cost inflation index pricing its property portfolio through the roof....
Well said Bottom feeder, great post.

The 5-7 years it takes to build and sell down an apartment block is what has frustrated any shareholder with a short time horizon. Villas can be built and sold in a year.

Its a classic "3 little pigs" tale when they build a wood house v`s the brick house.

The good news from here , as you imply Bottom feeder, is that the c. $400m of unsold new stock was build at yesteryear prices . Hence OCA achieving 38% new sales margin.

The CFO said 6 months ago..." imagine what it might cost to build the Helier if it was to start today".

With so many " brick house' now finished ready to sell down , all we need now is the market turnover to return to normal and it seems pretty clear that is currently underway.

[winner69]

My original comment was that the ‘pecking order’ (relative performance) nearly always has OCA at the bottom.

Not just now but been like it for years …no matter what you are measuring.

For this discussion when OCA share price takes off it is very likely that the RYM, SUM and ARV share price will do even better

I wonder why OCA is nearly always at the bottom of the pile ……..the market per se must have a reason.

[BlackPeter]

ARV RYM and OCA all reported results late May

Since reporting-

RYM share price up 15%
ARV share price up 8%
OCA share price down 5%

Has to be a reflection of what the market thought of the results and future outlook of each

The long entrenched ' pecking order' in the retirement sector remains in place .......market telling us something

I doubt whether that relativity (pecking order) will change any time soon

No doubt - Rymans capital rise (which brought the share price down) and the trolls postulating that OCA needs a capital rise as well has nothing to do with that?

[winner69]

No doubt - Rymans capital rise (which brought the share price down) and the trolls postulating that OCA needs a capital rise as well has nothing to do with that?

Trolls possibly might be correct … you never know capital raise could be announced just prior to ASM

[ValueNZ]

Trolls possibly might be correct … you never know capital raise could be announced just prior to ASM
Do you know when that meeting is, and how we can access it? Thanks.

[winner69]

Do you know when that meeting is, and how we can access it? Thanks.

They don’t seem to have come up with a date yet

Last couple of been late June.

So obviously later this year …probably August now ……..maybe delayed to get the cap raise organised?

[X-men]

Come on folks....once the sales of assets go through in August...the debts gearing is down to around 30-32%...very conservative really.

Not to mention most of OCA debts are locked in at 4% and mature in 2028

I called my insider again...he said u all talking sheet porky about CR...get a life people

Oceania has
entered into an agreement to sell two of its Auckland care sites to a
smaller, experienced operator. This agreement is conditional on the
purchaser obtaining the consent of the Ministry of Health and Te Whatu Ora to
the transfer and the sale is expected to settle in August 2023.

[justakiwi]

Stop stirring! :t_down:


They don’t seem to have come up with a date yet

Last couple of been late June.

So obviously later this year …probably August now ……..maybe delayed to get the cap raise organised?

[Baa_Baa]

Stop stirring! :t_down:

Agree, it's tedious and boring. Some can't help themselves though, they hang on a false 'reputation' (which is based on number posts, not the wisdom of posts) and enjoy winding up other shareholders by posting innuendo and sarcasm. To give them the benefit of the doubt, they do it for sport, for fun, because to not give that benefit of doubt, they could only being doing it to try and influence opinion of others to buy or sell so that they can better their own circumstances.

[bull....]

My original comment was that the ‘pecking order’ (relative performance) nearly always has OCA at the bottom.

Not just now but been like it for years …no matter what you are measuring.

For this discussion when OCA share price takes off it is very likely that the RYM, SUM and ARV share price will do even better

I wonder why OCA is nearly always at the bottom of the pile ……..the market per se must have a reason.

your right winner market is always right

the only trolls on this thread are the ones who keep saying its the best investment ever ,,, just keep buying lol so say the troll's

anyway are we heading back to new lows ? :scared::scared:

[SailorRob]

your right winner market is always right

the only trolls on this thread are the ones who keep saying its the best investment ever ,,, just keep buying lol so say the troll's

anyway are we heading back to new lows ? :scared::scared:


*you're

Bull. Professor of efficient market hypothesis.

Hopefully back to new lows soon, sub 39 cents or whatever it got down to would be ideal.

[winner69]

OCA ends week at 74 cents ……3 consecutive down weeks

Market telling us something, eso as others doing OK

But then getting closer to Rob’s 39 cents

[nztx]

OCA ends week at 74 cents ……3 consecutive down weeks

Market telling us something, eso as others doing OK

But then getting closer to Rob’s 39 cents



39c .. dat sound good but will there be a Div give back attached ? :)

[SailorRob]

OCA ends week at 74 cents ……3 consecutive down weeks

Market telling us something, eso as others doing OK

But then getting closer to Rob’s 39 cents


Just like what the market told me when META dropped to $89

What was it telling me again?

[bottomfeeder]

Market is telling us the SP is 74cents. Dont read too much into it. Its now ex dividend, next dividend in six months. Why buy now. The market will pick up in a several months.

[SailorRob]

Market is telling us the SP is 74cents. Dont read too much into it. Its now ex dividend, next dividend in six months. Why buy now. The market will pick up in a several months.


Exactly, why buy now when you can easily predict a better time to buy.

Having the ability to be able to tell when to buy and what the market will do over 'a' several Months will allow the compounding of capital at exceptionally high rates.

This is good.

[bull....]

Exactly, why buy now when you can easily predict a better time to buy.

Having the ability to be able to tell when to buy and what the market will do over 'a' several Months will allow the compounding of capital at exceptionally high rates.

This is good.

exactly , as proved in all history timing is important. OCA isa prime example if you brought at 1.40 +
will you ever get your money back ?
and if you do how many yr's is it going to take ?
of course no - one knows the answer to these questions precisely but they are valid questions in regards to your
likely % return in the long run , compounding when you have negative returns in the mix is not a very good situation to be in so i would suggest all the people who raVE on about long term compounding on this thread do some home work in regard s to yr's which involve negative compounding. you will realize this makes a huge difference to your long term returns

anyway back to my timing the market's .... still on track to reach nz rich list lol

[SailorRob]

Remember, you brought the beers you bought to the party.

[SailorRob]

exactly , as proved in all history timing is important. OCA isa prime example if you brought at 1.40 +
will you ever get your money back ?
and if you do how many yr's is it going to take ?
of course no - one knows the answer to these questions precisely but they are valid questions in regards to your
likely % return in the long run , compounding when you have negative returns in the mix is not a very good situation to be in so i would suggest all the people who raVE on about long term compounding on this thread do some home work in regard s to yr's which involve negative compounding. you will realize this makes a huge difference to your long term returns

anyway back to my timing the market's .... still on track to reach nz rich list lol


Not really, the price you pay will have little effect over the long term unless you pay an immense multiple.

Your results will be determined by returns on capital and ability to reinvest.

All simple math.

Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you’re not going to make much different than a 6% return even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with a fine result. So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.

[winner69]

Not really, the price you pay will have little effect over the long term unless you pay an immense multiple.

Your results will be determined by returns on capital and ability to reinvest.

All simple math.

Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you’re not going to make much different than a 6% return even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with a fine result. So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.

Well, that rules out OCA in getting a ‘fine result’

[SailorRob]

Well, that rules out OCA in getting a ‘fine result’


Well on the contrary no, it virtually guarantees it.

If I were you I'd spend a few weeks examining the 'ability to reinvest' aspect and the method of financing.

Or, like other sub performing imbeciles you can just watch the stock price and form conclusions based on that.

[ValueNZ]

exactly , as proved in all history timing is important. OCA isa prime example if you brought at 1.40 +
will you ever get your money back ?
and if you do how many yr's is it going to take ?
of course no - one knows the answer to these questions precisely but they are valid questions in regards to your
likely % return in the long run , compounding when you have negative returns in the mix is not a very good situation to be in so i would suggest all the people who raVE on about long term compounding on this thread do some home work in regard s to yr's which involve negative compounding. you will realize this makes a huge difference to your long term returns

anyway back to my timing the market's .... still on track to reach nz rich list lol
Negative price returns on a stock that is compounding capital isn't bad for shareholders, it's great. Your reinvested dividends provide you with a greater amount of future benefit.

[bull....]

Negative price returns on a stock that is compounding capital isn't bad for shareholders, it's great. Your reinvested dividends provide you with a greater amount of future benefit.

i agree with your point as regards steady reliable or even growing dividends but we are talking about a company with declining dividends , perhaps even no dividends so the negative compounding is very relivant even if you buy at 76c

[davflaws]

Well, that rules out OCA in getting a ‘fine result’
At this point I'm confused. I understood that SR was basing his calculations on a "free use of capital" analysis, arising from the business model OCA has adopted. Did I misunderstand?

[bottomfeeder]

i agree with your point as regards steady reliable or even growing dividends but we are talking about a company with declining dividends , perhaps even no dividends so the negative compounding is very relivant even if you buy at 76c

Just Temporary. Back to normal dividend payouts after they settle on surplus properties.

[ronaldson]

Holders should note that the Board and Senior Executive Officers all participated in the DRIP applying to the recent dividend payment, as per the Disclosure Notices filed today. Seems a good sign of confidence to me.

I would be even happier if more of the current properties presently "held for sale" reach the status of an unconditional agreement at prices that don't force a lowering of valuations of the stock intended to be retained long term on the balance sheet. Just two to settle in August so far, from 9 or 10 in that category, indicates disposal isn't easy at this time. But the reweighting of OCA's portfolio of properties away from those that are care/labour intensive in circumstances where the Government is less than generous in subsidy support is definitely the correct strategy to benefit holders going forward.

[winner69]

Holders should note that the Board and Senior Executive Officers all participated in the DRIP applying to the recent dividend payment, as per the Disclosure Notices filed today. Seems a good sign of confidence to me.


………
.

Yep, good sign Directors take the DRP

Liz Coutts doing well ….has managed to get her average down to $1.042 (has paid between $0.56 and $1.53 over the years)

She is now $584,824 under water on her investment in OCA

But SailorRob would say she doing the right thing and will be ‘fine’

[winner69]

Liz Coutts beside taking the DRP has been a regular buyer on market over the years as well.

Hasn’t acquired any on market recently …maybe her confidence is waning.

[SailorRob]

Yep, good sign Directors take the DRP

Liz Coutts doing well ….has managed to get her average down to $1.042 (has paid between $0.56 and $1.53 over the years)

She is now $584,824 under water on her investment in OCA

But SailorRob would say she doing the right thing and will be ‘fine’


One thing is for sure, I'm not stupid enough to second guess Liz Coutts. She'd wipe her backside with you.

Yes she is absolutely doing the right thing and will be more than fine.

[Habits]

Yep, good sign Directors take the DRP

Liz Coutts doing well ….has managed to get her average down to $1.042 (has paid between $0.56 and $1.53 over the years)

She is now $584,824 under water on her investment in OCA

But SailorRob would say she doing the right thing and will be ‘fine’

So Liz has a holding of 2.3m... maybe that was before she went and made $584k disappear.

[bull....]

Just Temporary. Back to normal dividend payouts after they settle on surplus properties.

you think , not me they stated in there results cashflow and capital management due to margin pressure coming are more important than dividends

[Sideshow Bob]

you think , not me they stated in there results cashflow and capital management due to margin pressure coming are more important than dividends

Divvy cost them about $9.4m, and then after tax, got back about $2.6m in the DRP.

I think from memory it looks like less participated in the DRP than in the past?

[bull....]

Divvy cost them about $9.4m, and then after tax, got back about $2.6m in the DRP.

I think from memory it looks like less participated in the DRP than in the past?

yep and those who didnt participate in the drp got diluted

[winner69]

Divvy cost them about $9.4m, and then after tax, got back about $2.6m in the DRP.

I think from memory it looks like less participated in the DRP than in the past?

Jeez …$9.4m ……hardly seems worth the bother when everytalks billions when they talk about Oceania

[Curly]

yep and those who didnt participate in the drp got diluted
And those that did get allocated shares at a price above the now current price. While I appreciate the merits of DRP, I prefer to direct credit all divs to an investment fund and allow it to accumulate so I can make a play on a stock when I think the price is right. Like OCA now price. Sometimes I will invest div upon receipt if the opportunity presents itself. Each to their own.

[Ggcc]

yep and those who didnt participate in the drp got diluted

I have taken myself off all DRP in any share I own as most of the time they go below that and then I just top up manually. It has saved me thousands over the years doing it that way. DRP are good for those that have a very small shareholding or can’t be bothered.

Of course in certain shares this may be different, but the shares I own it has a bad history.

[Mrbuyit]

And those that did get allocated shares at a price above the now current price. While I appreciate the merits of DRP, I prefer to direct credit all divs to an investment fund and allow it to accumulate so I can make a play on a stock when I think the price is right. Like OCA now price. Sometimes I will invest div upon receipt if the opportunity presents itself. Each to their own.

I think this is a good ploy for some, (I don't bother myself though as I'm only dealing with less than 1000 shares allocated from DRP) historically you have been able to pick up shares on market within a few days of the dividend at a better discount than that offered by the DRP.
Small holders the difference may be absorbed by brokerage fees, so maybe the DRP makes sense.

[winner69]

yep and those who didnt participate in the drp got diluted

Doubt most small to medium retail investors would even notice the dilution ……like if one had 20,000 shares and took cash their percentage of company reduces from 0.002775% to 0.002763% ..ouch

But punters like SailorRob would definitely notice the dilution

[Sideshow Bob]

I have taken myself off all DRP in any share I own as most of the time they go below that and then I just top up manually. It has saved me thousands over the years doing it that way. DRP are good for those that have a very small shareholding or can’t be bothered.

Of course in certain shares this may be different, but the shares I own it has a bad history.

Also OCA only has a discount on the DRP of 1%, which is less that what many others are.

[Ggcc]

Also OCA only has a discount on the DRP of 1%, which is less that what many others are.
The only one I have not participated in is TRA so far. Even with discount I have bought shares well below 20% DRP (HGH).

[thegreatestben]

Yep same here, occasionally I'll put my dividend into another dividend paying share, as long as I compounding :)

[dibble]

yep and those who didnt participate in the drp got diluted

Seriously? This worries you?
Recurring theme it seems...the DRP cash doesnt evaporate, it stays inside the company. If you dont take up the DRP you have some dividend cash and own a slightly smaller piece of a slightly larger pie. A DRP discount is typically less than a share price oscillates in a week so it doesnt seem fruitful to get uptight about it until e.g. a broker gets a 20% discount on a placement.

Politically though your voting power indeed decreases. I wonder how many everyday stockholders really care about voting rights shrinking by 1%. Maybe they do, certainly if one aspires to taking control of the company one ought take up the DRP.

[bottomfeeder]

Probably not going to be material, but am against the DRP based on a cum dividend SP. OK 1% discount and no brokerage. But better to take control yourself. If an investor was so worried about minor dilution they could either keep buying shares or never sell any shares. So its always a dynamic situation.

[bull....]

Seriously? This worries you?
Recurring theme it seems...the DRP cash doesnt evaporate, it stays inside the company. If you dont take up the DRP you have some dividend cash and own a slightly smaller piece of a slightly larger pie. A DRP discount is typically less than a share price oscillates in a week so it doesnt seem fruitful to get uptight about it until e.g. a broker gets a 20% discount on a placement.

Politically though your voting power indeed decreases. I wonder how many everyday stockholders really care about voting rights shrinking by 1%. Maybe they do, certainly if one aspires to taking control of the company one ought take up the DRP.

not at all , my comment was only a point in that if you dont take up drp you get diluted. of course as winner pointed out it probably wont matter to most on here as there holdings are so small but to big holders it is material factor

[winner69]

Liz Coutts beside taking the DRP has been a regular buyer on market over the years as well.

Hasn’t acquired any on market recently …maybe her confidence is waning.

Ha ha …hope I didn’t ‘coerce’ her into buying a few on market …..35,000 of them

Always good sign when Directors buy ….esp the Chair

[winner69]

Probably not going to be material, but am against the DRP based on a cum dividend SP. OK 1% discount and no brokerage. But better to take control yourself. If an investor was so worried about minor dilution they could either keep buying shares or never sell any shares. So its always a dynamic situation.

DRP based on ex-dividend prices ……but I think I get the gist of the point you were making.

[Greekwatchdog]

Liz Coutts spending wisely for the long term https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413817

[Ggcc]

We all know this share will rise over time with interest rates dropping and if sales targets are met. People will live on and OCA will shine. Just which year will they shine 2025 or 2026

[Joh13]

I've managed to build a significant position in OCA, holding 1M shares at an average price of 85 cents. My key concern is a potential early takeover at around $1.00 per share, which, despite offering a slight profit, doesn't reflect the company's true value. I believe MET, SUM, or RYM could be interested in OCA for industry consolidation. A takeover at a higher share price would be ideal, capturing OCA's intrinsic value and the efficiencies of a combined entity. Patience is my strategy as I wait for the market to recognise OCA's potential.

[SailorRob]

I've managed to build a significant position in OCA, holding 1M shares at an average price of 85 cents. My key concern is a potential early takeover at around $1.00 per share, which, despite offering a slight profit, doesn't reflect the company's true value. I believe MET, SUM, or RYM could be interested in OCA for industry consolidation. A takeover at a higher share price would be ideal, capturing OCA's intrinsic value and the efficiencies of a combined entity. Patience is my strategy as I wait for the market to recognise OCA's potential.


Your key concern is not a concern at all, think it through.

We are owners alongside the directors.

Well done on the accumulation.

[Joshuatree]

"I believe " this share will rise over time with interest rates dropping and if sales targets are met. People will live on and OCA will shine. Just which year will they shine 2025 or 2026
There I fixed it for you.

[X-men]

Joh13...not wise put all your money in one stock. Spread your risk!!!

Takeover??? Where SuM, Ryman and Met get the money from...all of them are in 30-35% gearing...

$1 takeover offer will be around $800million!!

Gosh....stop dreaming n talking porky....maybe private fundies

[Joh13]

Joh13...not wise put all your money in one stock. Spread your risk!!!

Takeover??? Where SuM, Ryman and Met get the money from...all of them are in 30-35% gearing...

$1 takeover offer will be around $800million!!

Gosh....stop dreaming n talking porky....maybe private fundies

Thanks for the advice X-men, luckily, I still have a bit more dry powder for other opportunities.

[bull....]

I've managed to build a significant position in OCA, holding 1M shares at an average price of 85 cents. My key concern is a potential early takeover at around $1.00 per share, which, despite offering a slight profit, doesn't reflect the company's true value. I believe MET, SUM, or RYM could be interested in OCA for industry consolidation. A takeover at a higher share price would be ideal, capturing OCA's intrinsic value and the efficiencies of a combined entity. Patience is my strategy as I wait for the market to recognise OCA's potential.

maybe the least of your concerns considering 850k you have invested will earn you a little over 2% after tax return while you wait and hope for your takeover/ yr compared to a 6% term deposit before tax current opportunity :scared: madness ?
basing your gamble on an unlikely takeover ( in my opinion ) when all participate's are conserving cash :scared: madness

anyway good luck maybe the price will rise one day over a dollar and you will do very well or maybe it will be 70c and you will have lost big in time and money that is the stock market

[mistaTea]

Thanks for the advice X-men, luckily, I still have a bit more dry powder for other opportunities.

Munger would always advocate to go ‘all in’ when you find opportunities that your analysis leads you to believe are a sure thing (or as close to a sure thing as is possible given the vicissitudes of life).

[SailorRob]

Joh13...not wise put all your money in one stock. Spread your risk!!!

Takeover??? Where SuM, Ryman and Met get the money from...all of them are in 30-35% gearing...

$1 takeover offer will be around $800million!!

Gosh....stop dreaming n talking porky....maybe private fundies


When and where did they say that they had put all money in one stock?

A significant position could be 10% of equity funds, meaning a 8/9 million dollar equity portfolio, then property and other stuff.

We don't know.

I would not assume as a holder of 4000 shares to be giving advice to a holder of a million.

[SailorRob]

maybe the least of your concerns considering 850k you have invested will earn you a little over 2% after tax return while you wait and hope for your takeover/ yr compared to a 6% term deposit before tax current opportunity :scared: madness ?
basing your gamble on an unlikely takeover ( in my opinion ) when all participate's are conserving cash :scared: madness

anyway good luck maybe the price will rise one day over a dollar and you will do very well or maybe it will be 70c and you will have lost big in time and money that is the stock market


Is that what they said they were doing?

[Rawz]

maybe the least of your concerns considering 850k you have invested will earn you a little over 2% after tax return while you wait and hope for your takeover/ yr compared to a 6% term deposit before tax current opportunity :scared: madness ?
basing your gamble on an unlikely takeover ( in my opinion ) when all participate's are conserving cash :scared: madness

anyway good luck maybe the price will rise one day over a dollar and you will do very well or maybe it will be 70c and you will have lost big in time and money that is the stock market

Jon said his concern is OCA gets taken over. I.e. his intrinsic value is above $1 and his concern is it doesnt get realised due to a takeover..

[SailorRob]

Jon said his concern is OCA gets taken over. I.e. his intrinsic value is above $1 and his concern is it doesnt get realised due to a takeover..


Exactly right and he stated that clearly.

Bulls cognitive ability is deteriorating as fast as Biden.

What post was he reading??

[winner69]

Exactly right and he stated that clearly.

Bulls cognitive ability is deteriorating as fast as Biden.

What post was he reading??

Bulls cognitive ability still pretty sharp …..probably got Wordle today on 2nd row

[justakiwi]

:laugh::laugh::laugh:


Bulls cognitive ability still pretty sharp …..probably got Wordle today on 2nd row

[bull....]

Jon said his concern is OCA gets taken over. I.e. his intrinsic value is above $1 and his concern is it doesnt get realised due to a takeover..

lol my instrinsic value might be 70c so im saying his valuation is wrong and market agree's with me more otherwise it would already be over $!
thats why i said he's basing it on takeover gamble .... madness

[Bjauck]

Joh13...not wise put all your money in one stock. Spread your risk!!!

Takeover??? Where SuM, Ryman and Met get the money from...all of them are in 30-35% gearing...

$1 takeover offer will be around $800million!!

Gosh....stop dreaming n talking porky....maybe private fundies
I haven’t read all past posts but Has Joh13 put all his funds in just the one stock? 850,000 NZD is a significant position but it may not be all his funds. They could have a multi million real estate portfolio and a multi-million stock portfolio too..

[ValueNZ]

lol my instrinsic value might be 70c so im saying his valuation is wrong and market agree's with me more otherwise it would already be over $!
thats why i said he's basing it on takeover gamble .... madness
Are you saying your valuation of the company is influenced by the market price? Perhaps you'd like to explain how you got to a 70c intrinsic value calculation.

[Curly]

Munger would always advocate to go ‘all in’ when you find opportunities that your analysis leads you to believe are a sure thing (or as close to a sure thing as is possible given the vicissitudes of life).
Spread your risk a bit of a share market cliche. I’m a Munger man. If you have done your due diligence and researched fully back yourself and thump it. You won’t be right all the time so long as you get it right most of the time which is not to hard.
Currently I hold positions in three companies which is easy to manage.

[bull....]

Are you saying your valuation of the company is influenced by the market price? Perhaps you'd like to explain how you got to a 70c intrinsic value calculation.

70c was an example it might actually be 60c get the drift its all guessing , some are actually better than others at it thats the only difference and no i wont be sharing how i work out valuations as that is like the kfc or coke giving there secret sauce away

[SailorRob]

70c was an example it might actually be 60c get the drift its all guessing , some are actually better than others at it thats the only difference and no i wont be sharing how i work out valuations as that is like the kfc or coke giving there secret sauce away


What discount rate are you using?

[SailorRob]

70c was an example it might actually be 60c get the drift its all guessing , some are actually better than others at it thats the only difference and no i wont be sharing how i work out valuations as that is like the kfc or coke giving there secret sauce away

How much do you think you could make selling your valuation method to the American investment institutions, like 'the' KFC or 'the' coke selling there (their) secrets?

[X-men]

My rule with the stock market....u only invest what u can afford to lose...

I might only have 4000 shares on this dog....but I spread my $10m fund across all the markets

[SailorRob]

My rule with the stock market....u only invest what u can afford to lose...

I might only have 4000 shares on this dog....but I spread my $10m fund across all the markets

So you can afford to lose 10 million then by your definition. That you learned from your grandmother.

[winner69]

I've managed to build a significant position in OCA, holding 1M shares at an average price of 85 cents. My key concern is a potential early takeover at around $1.00 per share, which, despite offering a slight profit, doesn't reflect the company's true value. I believe MET, SUM, or RYM could be interested in OCA for industry consolidation. A takeover at a higher share price would be ideal, capturing OCA's intrinsic value and the efficiencies of a combined entity. Patience is my strategy as I wait for the market to recognise OCA's potential.


Was good buying in the covid panic time of 2020 eh Joh

Suppose you bought heaps in the early stages of OCA being listed in 2017/2018

Like many the last couple of years must have been a bit painful for you. You were touting $1.90 not that long ago and added you were not concerned with the short term price because $7.00 in 10 years is what I’m looking at.

Never mind …..stick with it as your day will come and you’re still young.

[bull....]

How much do you think you could make selling your valuation method to the American investment institutions, like 'the' KFC or 'the' coke selling there (their) secrets?

the only time stuff gets disclosed is when it no longer works ..... you should know this from all your very in depth readings on buffett you have done
if he had disclosed his secret sailor rob may well be one of the richist people on the planet but alas you are not

[X-men]

All the markets...aka properties, shares, deposit, gold, weeds, women etc

[Curly]

The topic is “OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages:” If posters want to keep taking the piss out of other posters can they please open a new thread elsewhere. Back to reasoned respectful debate please.

[X-men]

We are all debating ethically....

[bull....]

All the markets...aka properties, shares, deposit, gold, weeds, women etc

you would be the richist person on the planet if you sold the secret to get any woman you wanted at any time

[X-men]

Sugar babes... money talks man

[justakiwi]

These comments speak volumes about both of you.

Just stop with the objectification of women, and get back to OCA.


you would be the richist person on the planet if you sold the secret to get any woman you wanted at any time


Sugar babes... money talks man

[golzern]

Hi team, my very first post in any forum. Thought I jump into the fair value discussion.
In case someone cares, I bought during COVID and held for too long and sold with no profit or loss. But watching the stock closely.

I calculated a fair value of $0.72 per share. (based on margin of safety calculation that I adopted from the book 'Payback Time')
Assumptions
EPS = $0.09 (not a TTM value as proposed, but rather a realistic value based on previous years)
Growth rate = 8% (hard to calculate for this company atm, yahoo finance has much higher values)
PE Ratio = 15%
MARR = 15% (minimum acceptable rate of return)
MOS = 50% (Margin of safety)

Based on that my MOS price would be $0.36 which seems really unrealistic. Plus I can't really see an uptrend yet (based on moving averages)
I found other operators to match my calculations better atm, so I will wait and watch Oceania for now.

Happy for advise and opinions. Cheers

No investment advise but rather my opinion.

[bull....]

Sugar babes... money talks man

it certainly does. money rules the world. hopefully if i reach the richlist ( from owning OCA lol ) i shall endulge

[X-men]

4000 shares ... nothing to lose bull!!!

[bull....]

4000 shares ... nothing to lose bull!!!

with the power of compounding the world will be yours

[SailorRob]

the only time stuff gets disclosed is when it no longer works ..... you should know this from all your very in depth readings on buffett you have done
if he had disclosed his secret sailor rob may well be one of the richist people on the planet but alas you are not

Yes but your method could be sold for 100 million or so, there would be a large number of institutions that would be very interested, have you never considered selling it?

[SailorRob]

you would be the richist person on the planet if you sold the secret to get any woman you wanted at any time

And possibly the richest.

[ThaiJohn]

Fun at parties.
These comments speak volumes about both of you.

Just stop with the objectification of women, and get back to OCA.

[davflaws]

Fun at parties.

At the parties I go to, sexist objectification of women is called out. Feel free to stay away.

[Bjauck]

4000 shares ... nothing to lose bull!!!
You’re playing a fine game of monopoly where $3,100 is “ nothing to lose”!

[bull....]

At the parties I go to, sexist objectification of women is called out. Feel free to stay away.

you have obviously never worked in a bank dealer room

[SailorRob]

you have obviously never worked in a bank dealer room

How many times have you read 'how to win friends and influence people'?

[bull....]

How many times have you read 'how to win friends and influence people'?

great book , nothing like enjoying a beer with the boy's down at show girls after a winning day on the market

[RTM]

How many times have you read 'how to win friends and influence people'?

I must have missed that thread. Where is it ?
Have you read it Sailor Boy ? Do you post there too ?
Bet there are some good tips.

[Cottagestyles]

Hell in a hand cart is where sharetrader.co.nz is heading IMO. This thread is a pretty good indication where things are at.
Anything goes.
The odd bright moment exists on this site but rapidly being overtaken by trolly BS. Folks pop up now and then trying to get things back on track but the usual suspects drown out the more moderate souls.
What on earth is with all the childish oneupmanship?! Pretty low rent behaviour 😔

[SailorRob]

Hell in a hand cart is where sharetrader.co.nz is heading IMO. This thread is a pretty good indication where things are at.
Anything goes.
The odd bright moment exists on this site but rapidly being overtaken by trolly BS. Folks pop up now and then trying to get things back on track but the usual suspects drown out the more moderate souls.
What on earth is with all the childish oneupmanship?! Pretty low rent behaviour 😔

Fair points.

Of your total 29 posts on sharetrader, this is your first on OCA.

Over 50% of your 29 total posts are complaining about other posts.

All fair enough.

But why don't you share some thoughts with the thread on OCA to get us back on track.

[Habits]

And possibly the richest.

Have just enough to survive and stay hungry. The 100 to 200 big ones of Sir James Wallace only made him weird

[mike2020]

Fair points.

Of your total 29 posts on sharetrader, this is your first on OCA.

Over 50% of your 29 total posts are complaining about other posts.

All fair enough.

But why don't you share some thoughts with the thread on OCA to get us back on track.

Or at least try making up a song about it right?

[Baa_Baa]

Or at least try making up a song about it right?

(Verse 1)Fair points, my friend, I hear what you say,In this online realm where opinions sway.On Sharetrader, you've had your say,But on OCA, you're yet to convey.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Verse 2)Amongst your 29 posts, complaints reside,But now's the time to turn the tide.Open your mind, let the words unfold,Contribute to OCA, let your story be told.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Bridge)For in diversity, wisdom is found,Different perspectives, a rich ground.Let's build bridges, let understanding bloom,And let our words shine away the gloom.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Outro)So, my friend, let your voice be heard,Contribute to OCA, spread your word.Let's foster dialogue, let's rise above,And together, create a community we love.

and the music soundtrack might be:

Intro: Soft piano chords or acoustic guitar strumming
Verse 1: Gentle percussion, subtle bassline, and light electric guitar riffs
Chorus: Full band instrumentation with catchy melodies, driving drums, and uplifting chord progressions
Bridge: Transition to a slightly more subdued section with a focus on piano or acoustic guitar, building up gradually with strings or synth pads
Chorus: Return to the energetic full band arrangement, possibly with additional layers and harmonies
Outro: Gradual fade-out with the instruments slowly fading away, leaving space for a gentle piano or acoustic guitar outro.
Overall, the musical arrangement should complement the heartfelt lyrics and convey a sense of positivity, growth, and unity.

---AI---

[SailorRob]

(Verse 1)Fair points, my friend, I hear what you say,In this online realm where opinions sway.On Sharetrader, you've had your say,But on OCA, you're yet to convey.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Verse 2)Amongst your 29 posts, complaints reside,But now's the time to turn the tide.Open your mind, let the words unfold,Contribute to OCA, let your story be told.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Bridge)For in diversity, wisdom is found,Different perspectives, a rich ground.Let's build bridges, let understanding bloom,And let our words shine away the gloom.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Outro)So, my friend, let your voice be heard,Contribute to OCA, spread your word.Let's foster dialogue, let's rise above,And together, create a community we love.

and the music soundtrack might be:

Intro: Soft piano chords or acoustic guitar strumming
Verse 1: Gentle percussion, subtle bassline, and light electric guitar riffs
Chorus: Full band instrumentation with catchy melodies, driving drums, and uplifting chord progressions
Bridge: Transition to a slightly more subdued section with a focus on piano or acoustic guitar, building up gradually with strings or synth pads
Chorus: Return to the energetic full band arrangement, possibly with additional layers and harmonies
Outro: Gradual fade-out with the instruments slowly fading away, leaving space for a gentle piano or acoustic guitar outro.
Overall, the musical arrangement should complement the heartfelt lyrics and convey a sense of positivity, growth, and unity.

---AI---


This is exactly what was in my head as I wrote the post, just couldn't put it into words like this.

Even the instruments are as I heard them in my head.

[Valuegrowth]

Thankyou Baa Baa for your poem. I'll share some thoughts.

Just like human beings personality of a stock can change at any Time. Not only volatility, I have experienced mini-cycles in stocks as well.

https://www.polencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Voting-VS-Weighing-Machine-720x405.png


(Verse 1)Fair points, my friend, I hear what you say,In this online realm where opinions sway.On Sharetrader, you've had your say,But on OCA, you're yet to convey.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Verse 2)Amongst your 29 posts, complaints reside,But now's the time to turn the tide.Open your mind, let the words unfold,Contribute to OCA, let your story be told.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Bridge)For in diversity, wisdom is found,Different perspectives, a rich ground.Let's build bridges, let understanding bloom,And let our words shine away the gloom.
(Chorus)Oh, let's redirect the conversation's flow,Share some thoughts, let new ideas grow.Let's get back on track, ignite the flame,Engage with the thread, for we're all the same.
(Outro)So, my friend, let your voice be heard,Contribute to OCA, spread your word.Let's foster dialogue, let's rise above,And together, create a community we love.

and the music soundtrack might be:

Intro: Soft piano chords or acoustic guitar strumming
Verse 1: Gentle percussion, subtle bassline, and light electric guitar riffs
Chorus: Full band instrumentation with catchy melodies, driving drums, and uplifting chord progressions
Bridge: Transition to a slightly more subdued section with a focus on piano or acoustic guitar, building up gradually with strings or synth pads
Chorus: Return to the energetic full band arrangement, possibly with additional layers and harmonies
Outro: Gradual fade-out with the instruments slowly fading away, leaving space for a gentle piano or acoustic guitar outro.
Overall, the musical arrangement should complement the heartfelt lyrics and convey a sense of positivity, growth, and unity.

---AI---

[Joh13]

Jon said his concern is OCA gets taken over. I.e. his intrinsic value is above $1 and his concern is it doesnt get realised due to a takeover..

Exactly my concern is that OCA might be taken over at a price that undervalues its true worth. My approach is to be patient and let the market realise OCA's actual value. Meanwhile, I'll keep participating in the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP).

Some might get frustrated when investments don't immediately pay off, but I'm in a position where I don't need the funds from this investment for at least the next 20 years. Even if the value dropped to zero, it wouldn't affect me financially - it would only be a hit to my pride.

In my view, investing in OCA represents a situation where the potential gains outweigh the risks, (asymmetric risk-to-reward). It might take time, IMO this investment will prove beneficial in the long run. Remember, investing isn't about quick returns; it's about long-term growth. Patience is a key part of this process.

Adding onto my previous points, I find it intriguing that Elizabeth Coutts, has also been purchasing shares on the open market. Her decision to buy could be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the company's prospects. If she wasn't confident, such a move would essentially be a "gamble" which is unlikely for someone in her position. This further solidifies my belief in the company's potential for long-term growth.

[Valuegrowth]

JOh13 wrote:

"Remember, investing isn't about quick returns; it's about long-term growth. Patience is a key part of this process.

I had that same idea.Discipline is also a key part of this process(success). Successful investors will stay out of the market, if they see some warning signals.Similarly, they will come to the market when they see great opportunities. Good luck!

[bull....]

Exactly my concern is that OCA might be taken over at a price that undervalues its true worth. My approach is to be patient and let the market realise OCA's actual value. Meanwhile, I'll keep participating in the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP).

Some might get frustrated when investments don't immediately pay off, but I'm in a position where I don't need the funds from this investment for at least the next 20 years. Even if the value dropped to zero, it wouldn't affect me financially - it would only be a hit to my pride.

In my view, investing in OCA represents a situation where the potential gains outweigh the risks, (asymmetric risk-to-reward). It might take time, IMO this investment will prove beneficial in the long run. Remember, investing isn't about quick returns; it's about long-term growth. Patience is a key part of this process.

Adding onto my previous points, I find it intriguing that Elizabeth Coutts, has also been purchasing shares on the open market. Her decision to buy could be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the company's prospects. If she wasn't confident, such a move would essentially be a "gamble" which is unlikely for someone in her position. This further solidifies my belief in the company's potential for long-term growth.

im getting back on track now about OCA

im not a great believer in instrinsic value stuff , obviously you are based on your very large investment in OCA
perhap's you may share with us your workings on how you valued the company to achieve your over $1 valuation.


anyway why we wait for joh fundamental valuation analysis here's a take on the technical's


after posting lows around 68c it punched up to 84c , currently it has found support at 74c which was roughly 61.8% retracement level down from 84c and has pivoted up from this level which implies 74c is also pivot support
going forward if we take out 79c would be considered bullish short term
on a optiimistic note today is quarter end which hopefully may attract some additional buying , a close over 80c would look good on a weekly chart , a close over 84c would be great on a mthly and quarterly chart

of course technical analysis can be viewed in the same light as instrinsic valuation ie garbage in garbage out lol

[SailorRob]

im getting back on track now about OCA

im not a great believer in instrinsic value stuff , obviously you are based on your very large investment in OCA
perhap's you may share with us your workings on how you valued the company to achieve your over $1 valuation.


anyway why we wait for joh fundamental valuation analysis here's a take on the technical's


after posting lows around 68c it punched up to 84c , currently it has found support at 74c which was roughly 61.8% retracement level down from 84c and has pivoted up from this level which implies 74c is also pivot support
going forward if we take out 79c would be considered bullish short term
on a optiimistic note today is quarter end which hopefully may attract some additional buying , a close over 80c would look good on a weekly chart , a close over 84c would be great on a mthly and quarterly chart

of course technical analysis can be viewed in the same light as instrinsic valuation ie garbage in garbage out lol

Very optiiimiiistic fanks bull.

[Bjauck]

Deleted for irrelevance.

[Entrep]

Exactly my concern is that OCA might be taken over at a price that undervalues its true worth. My approach is to be patient and let the market realise OCA's actual value. Meanwhile, I'll keep participating in the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP).

Some might get frustrated when investments don't immediately pay off, but I'm in a position where I don't need the funds from this investment for at least the next 20 years. Even if the value dropped to zero, it wouldn't affect me financially - it would only be a hit to my pride.

In my view, investing in OCA represents a situation where the potential gains outweigh the risks, (asymmetric risk-to-reward). It might take time, IMO this investment will prove beneficial in the long run. Remember, investing isn't about quick returns; it's about long-term growth. Patience is a key part of this process.

Adding onto my previous points, I find it intriguing that Elizabeth Coutts, has also been purchasing shares on the open market. Her decision to buy could be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the company's prospects. If she wasn't confident, such a move would essentially be a "gamble" which is unlikely for someone in her position. This further solidifies my belief in the company's potential for long-term growth.

Did you have any other shares you looked at when considering investing that money?
Any other retirement villages?
If so, how come you specifically chose OCA over them?

[BlackPeter]

Did you have any other shares you looked at when considering investing that money?
Any other retirement villages?
If so, how come you specifically chose OCA over them?

Great we are back to the thread theme. Long may it last! And, btw, good questions (not just yours) as well for Joh13.

While he is typing, maybe I might talk about my reasons to invest into OCA.

But first, lets put that into context ... I am a fan of diversification with a set limit of roughly 10% for high confidence stocks. For OCA I extended this limit somewhat - I invested roughly 15% of our NZ share portfolio into OCA. Holding as well some other retirement stocks (RYM, ARV and INA on the ASX), but in smaller amounts.

So - what are my main reasons to favour OCA?

1) Location, location, location: I saw (and see) in OCA the amazing potential which you get in real estate when buying the most run down house in the best street. You get the benefit of the great location for a discounted price. This is where OCA started - a lot of old run down old people homes in amazing locations ... Obviously - it does cost a lot of money (some people call this investment) to renovate (or in this case) to tear old houses down and build new ones while still operating a retirement village. I see that OCA moved by now through the majority of the transition - I expect them in the years to come to reward their investors better than the other retirement villages reward theirs.

2) Offering a service people need (focus on care) vs. competing for the best cruise ship experience for able bodied clients: Just looking at the population pyramid and our health stats, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to predict an increased need for good quality care. The grey tsunami still coming in and you don't need to visit a KFC to notice that the number of obese and in general unhealthy people is going up.

While many of them won't be able to afford an OCA care place (unless politics rethinks), I do see as well the number of old people in need for care increasing who can afford to pay for it. OCA is ready to provide this service.


While I do see a healthy potential and tailwind for the whole industry - I think that OCA is at current one of the better bets, when looking at their future perspective.

And obviously (but this is true for all REITS) - as soon as we get off the current interest rate peak, REITS will go up. They always do. This is a good reason to buy at the current time REITS, including OCA.

[Habits]

Good rational and fair input BP

[SailorRob]

Yes good post apart from comparing OCA with REIT rubbish that doesn't produce anything.

[BlackPeter]

Yes good post apart from comparing OCA with REIT rubbish that doesn't produce anything.

Well, it appears you don't understand the nature of retirement villages, but this is ok. Maybe you don't understand the nature of REITS either, but this is ok as well. Everybody is here welcome to comment.

On the other hand are you amazingly proficient to spice your ignorance with strong words. Some might call this providing spice for the discussion, others might have stronger words to describe your contribution, but anyway - cheers for your comment.

They certainly provide colour.

[SailorRob]

Well, it appears you don't understand the nature of retirement villages, but this is ok. Maybe you don't understand the nature of REITS either, but this is ok as well. Everybody is here welcome to comment.

On the other hand are you amazingly proficient to spice your ignorance with strong but words. Some might call this providing spice for the discussion, others might have stronger words to describe your contribution, but anyway - cheers for your comment.

They certainly provide colour.

REITS and OCA are two very different things.

It's extremely important you understand this.

[Entrep]

Thanks BP.

In terms of assessing SUM vs OCA, OCA has always underperformed SUM share price significantly. I take it you think this will resolve in the future and that OCA is comparatively undervalued?

[SailorRob]

SUM has compounded earnings at a higher rate than virtually any company anywhere in the world anytime in history. Starting off a low base.

Was a 10 year CAGR close to 50%

[BlackPeter]

REITS and OCA are two very different things.

It's extremely important you understand this.

Different things? - Yes and no. It depends very much on your viewpoint and which definition of REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) you choose.

Very important? It does add no value at all what definition of REIT you use, as long as you understand what your investment is doing.

If you take the basic definition of a REIT (from investopedia): "A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company that owns, operates, or finances income-generating real estate."

Isn't this exactly what OCA is doing? They own Real estate (tick) and they operate real estate (tick), which generates an income (tick). They charge their clients for the use of this real estate using various fees and charges, and part of this operation is to add some for this special customer group essential services (like care).

Of course - there is no point in just buying any REIT, you need to look at what you want from it and what it is specifically doing.

Lets look at a different example. You want to buy a car. If you want an economical shopping basket, than might buy a Ford Fiesta (and lets avoid to start discussing the benefits of various cars here, shall we). If you want a car which is able to pull your boat from one lake to the next, you might prefer something bigger and with 4WD.

Both vehicles however would be cars and useful for the intended purpose.

So, there are REITS (like e.g. ARG and KPG) focussing on providing space for a certain clientele. Often buildings for special customers, but as well providing rental accommodation. Different type of REIT business, but they are REITS.

Other REITS are buying land, subdividing it and selling it on (e.g. CDI). Different type of REIT business, but they are REITS.

Some REITS are owning and operating hotels (like MCI). Again - different type of REIT business, but they are REITS.

And than there are the retirement villages. They do provide an important service to their clients, but the core of their business is owning and renting out real estate. Any retirement village not owning their real estate would need a totally different business model, and I am not aware of any successful retirement company which does not get most of its cashflow from owning and renting out real estate. Do you?

But no matter which definition you choose for REITS and how you would like to call Retirement Villages - it is important to understand that the market treats retirement villages as REITS (and there are some people who say the market is always right).

Interest rates up - REITS down, Interest rates down REITS up. Did it ever occur to you there might be a reason for this correlation?

And yes, there are some REITS who do better than others ... but this does not mean that they are no REITS.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks BP.

In terms of assessing SUM vs OCA, OCA has always underperformed SUM share price significantly. I take it you think this will resolve in the future and that OCA is comparatively undervalued?

Looking at the current valuations - correct.

If you go some years back, you will find that SUM used to be at some stage as well one of the underdogs, but they managed already to climb out of this hole - different start time and start conditions than OCA and a different business (cruise ship experience for healthy clients).

[BlackPeter]

SUM has compounded earnings at a higher rate than virtually any company anywhere in the world anytime in history. Starting off a low base.

Was a 10 year CAGR close to 50%

Most planes have an amazing CAGR while they ascend. As far as I am concerned - SUM is now pretty much on cruising level. I would not expect that their past CAGR is of any relevance for their future.

[SailorRob]

Most planes have an amazing CAGR while they ascend. As far as I am concerned - SUM is now pretty much on cruising level. I would not expect that their past CAGR is of any relevance for their future.

Absolutely right yes. Part of the question I replied to was talking about past comparative performance.

[SailorRob]

Different things? - Yes and no. It depends very much on your viewpoint and which definition of REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) you choose.

Very important? It does add no value at all what definition of REIT you use, as long as you understand what your investment is doing.

If you take the basic definition of a REIT (from investopedia): "A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company that owns, operates, or finances income-generating real estate."

Isn't this exactly what OCA is doing? They own Real estate (tick) and they operate real estate (tick), which generates an income (tick). They charge their clients for the use of this real estate using various fees and charges, and part of this operation is to add some for this special customer group essential services (like care).

Of course - there is no point in just buying any REIT, you need to look at what you want from it and what it is specifically doing.

Lets look at a different example. You want to buy a car. If you want an economical shopping basket, than might buy a Ford Fiesta (and lets avoid to start discussing the benefits of various cars here, shall we). If you want a car which is able to pull your boat from one lake to the next, you might prefer something bigger and with 4WD.

Both vehicles however would be cars and useful for the intended purpose.

So, there are REITS (like e.g. ARG and KPG) focussing on providing space for a certain clientele. Often buildings for special customers, but as well providing rental accommodation. Different type of REIT business, but they are REITS.

Other REITS are buying land, subdividing it and selling it on (e.g. CDI). Different type of REIT business, but they are REITS.

Some REITS are owning and operating hotels (like MCI). Again - different type of REIT business, but they are REITS.

And than there are the retirement villages. They do provide an important service to their clients, but the core of their business is owning and renting out real estate. Any retirement village not owning their real estate would need a totally different business model, and I am not aware of any successful retirement company which does not get most of its cashflow from owning and renting out real estate. Do you?

But no matter which definition you choose for REITS and how you would like to call Retirement Villages - it is important to understand that the market treats retirement villages as REITS (and there are some people who say the market is always right).

Interest rates up - REITS down, Interest rates down REITS up. Did it ever occur to you there might be a reason for this correlation?

And yes, there are some REITS who do better than others ... but this does not mean that they are no REITS.

No it's not what OCA is doing. There are only two posters who truly understand what OCA is doing and that's Maverick and Baa_Baa.

If REITS are about income producing real estate then they had better find some! Net Cash flows produced by their 'assets' are extremely thin vs prices they pay. Very ugly situation that will only ever look marginal in a ZIRP world.

Nobody can predict what rates will do, one could say they're not high right now, only in comparison to post GFC ZIRP.

Agree that OCA is trading with the dog REIT model.

And there's the opportunity.

[Cottagestyles]

Fair points.

Of your total 29 posts on sharetrader, this is your first on OCA.

Over 50% of your 29 total posts are complaining about other posts.

All fair enough.

But why don't you share some thoughts with the thread on OCA to get us back on track.

Have spent many years here SailorRob and have immensely enjoyed following the discourse. I'm not one to participate much (my Vodafone email address actually prevented that for some time) but will freely call out bad behaviour when I feel I've reached my limit with various crap. It just feels the "various crap" seems to be more prevalent recently and may explain my high percentage of complaining posts that you decided to do some analysis on.
It may be that I yearn too much for the gool old days when there was a certain general level of restraint and respect for others.

[justakiwi]

You are not alone. You also do not need to post unless you wish to, or justify yourself if you choose not to.

Sailor Rob - your implication that one should not complain about other people’s posts, unless they are willing to contribute something themself, is something you have expressed before. It is unfair and unacceptable in my book. Everyone has the right to complain/pull other posters up, for trolling, personal attacks or any other post that is inappropriate or intended to side track a thread. At the same time, there is zero requirement to post - if people wish to use the forums as a “read only” source of information or support, that is perfectly fine.


Have spent many years here SailorRob and have immensely enjoyed following the discourse. I'm not one to participate much (my Vodafone email address actually prevented that for some time) but will freely call out bad behaviour when I feel I've reached my limit with various crap. It just feels the "various crap" seems to be more prevalent recently and may explain my high percentage of complaining posts that you decided to do some analysis on.
It may be that I yearn too much for the gool old days when there was a certain general level of restraint and respect for others.

[SailorRob]

You are not alone. You also do not need to post unless you wish to, or justify yourself if you choose not to.

Sailor Rob - your implication that one should not complain about other people’s posts, unless they are willing to contribute something themself, is something you have expressed before. It is unfair and unacceptable in my book. Everyone has the right to complain/pull other posters up, for trolling, personal attacks or any other post that is inappropriate or intended to side track a thread. At the same time, there is zero requirement to post - if people wish to use the forums as a “read only” source of information or support, that is perfectly fine.


Well your book could be (is) very wrong.

Only a very certain type of pathetic individual will have the audacity to complain when they are consuming a free service that they can simply just not read if they don't like.

Otherwise perhaps they can feel free to bring back on topic with their own thoughts.

In popular culture these types of people are called 'Karens' and this is NOT a personal go at you and I'm not talking about you.

I think if we conducted a mass analysis of those who think it's a god given right to go round whining and complaining about things that they contribute nothing to and consume for free we would find they perhaps fall far behind those who 'do' rather than 'cry'

Zero requirement to post, exactly. So don't post whiney crap.

[SailorRob]

Have spent many years here SailorRob and have immensely enjoyed following the discourse. I'm not one to participate much (my Vodafone email address actually prevented that for some time) but will freely call out bad behaviour when I feel I've reached my limit with various crap. It just feels the "various crap" seems to be more prevalent recently and may explain my high percentage of complaining posts that you decided to do some analysis on.
It may be that I yearn too much for the gool old days when there was a certain general level of restraint and respect for others.


Well maybe there are more Morons around now.

Do you have any thoughts worth sharing or debating on OCA?

Perhaps we can start with, do you own the company. If so why, if not why not.

If you can participate to whine you can participate to add value.

[X-men]

Back to OCA plz....this thread is not for koro s to mourn....

[ValueNZ]

In an ideal world, all posts made on this thread would be in-depth analysis about OCA, debates, updates ect. But we don't live in that ideal world and occasionally the thread will go slightly off topic, but still will usually pertain to general finance. I have no problem with "trolling" nor so called personal attacks and the better way to approach such posts would be to explain in detail why that poster is wrong.

Ironically the posts complaining about trolling have taken the thread off topic again.

[justakiwi]

Wow. Guess you’re not the person I thought you were if that is how you truly feel.

Sharetrader is currently a free forum. There is no charge to belong and no requirement anywhere that I can see, for anyone to post. There are heaps of members here who never or rarely post. I was one of them until I got the confidence to do so. We are not all as knowledgeable and experienced as you are. I have nothing to contribute in terms of analysis or financial skills or experience. I post only on subjects I have some knowledge of, which is usually from a personal experience perspective such as aged care discussions. If it were not for that experience I would have nothing of any value to contribute.

As for your “Karen” reference, you have no idea how tiresome that becomes. I get it constantly - usually by men who can’t come up with anything original. The fact that you referenced the Karen meme here - regardless of the “not directed at you” clarification, makes you no better than them.

If the constant trolling, and other frustrating behaviours in this thread in particular, don’t bother you, that’s fine. They bother many of us, and we are entitled to complain.

I have a fair amount of respect for you most of the time, but you are arrogant and intolerant of others. Which is also getting tiresome. There is little of value in this thread now, so I will leave you to it.



Well your book could be (is) very wrong.

Only a very certain type of pathetic individual will have the audacity to complain when they are consuming a free service that they can simply just not read if they don't like.

Otherwise perhaps they can feel free to bring back on topic with their own thoughts.

In popular culture these types of people are called 'Karens' and this is NOT a personal go at you and I'm not talking about you.

I think if we conducted a mass analysis of those who think it's a god given right to go round whining and complaining about things that they contribute nothing to and consume for free we would find they perhaps fall far behind those who 'do' rather than 'cry'

Zero requirement to post, exactly. So don't post whiney crap.

[SailorRob]

Wow. Guess you’re not the person I thought you were if that is how you truly feel.

Sharetrader is currently a free forum. There is no charge to belong and no requirement anywhere that I can see, for anyone to post. There are heaps of members here who never or rarely post. I was one of them until I got the confidence to do so. We are not all as knowledgeable and experienced as you are. I have nothing to contribute in terms of analysis or financial skills or experience. I post only on subjects I have some knowledge of, which is usually from a personal experience perspective such as aged care discussions. If it were not for that experience I would have nothing of any value to contribute.

As for your “Karen” reference, you have no idea how tiresome that becomes. I get it constantly - usually by men who can’t come up with anything original. The fact that you referenced the Karen meme here - regardless of the “not directed at you” clarification, makes you no better than them.

If the constant trolling, and other frustrating behaviours in this thread in particular, don’t bother you, that’s fine. They bother many of us, and we are entitled to complain.

I have a fair amount of respect for you most of the time, but you are arrogant and intolerant of others. Which is also getting tiresome. There is little of value in this thread now, so I will leave you to it.


You might 'get it constantly' but not from me. As I said nothing to do with you.

Everything you say is technically true.

As my old boss used to say, he and his mate are perfectly entitled to ride 2 abreast on the road (road cycling). He's not breaking any laws.

But.

Doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Just because people are allowed to behave in a certain manner does not mean they should. That goes for me as well.

As I said, if you are going to consume a service for free that you don't contribute to and you have the audacity to complain in 15 out of your 29 posts, hey yes you can do that, but it doesn't mean it's a good idea. Nor is it a great use of time to defend this behavior.

I LOVE it when I come across road cyclists riding 2 abreast.

All I hear about is ENTITLEMENT and RIGHTS all the time, usually from these types of people, but what I never hear about is obligations.

[winner69]

Future share price expectations should be based on dreams. Dreams often come true

[ValueNZ]

Future share price expectations should be based on dreams. Dreams often come true
Future share price expectations should be based on fundamental analysis... That is analysing the available financial statements, forecasting what you believe to be likely outcomes for the company, and therefore projecting out future cash flows.

You could call that dreaming I suppose, but I certainly wouldn't. Dreaming is when someone decides to purchase stock in a company like Tesla because the share price has risen 100% since January with no real knowledge of accounting, and have never read a financial statement in their life.