OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Balance]

I'm not convinced JAK is being unkind, JAK is asking a pertinent question.

It’s so so obvious?

[SailorRob]

Also worth noting that instead of thinking like this, you can just watch the 11 minute video posted earlier in this thread and learn a technique that (as the video highlighted) could have avoided both the DOT.com crash and the GFC, while allowing you to participate in all of the upside as well. Thus doubling the market return over that time period and turning you into one of the very best investors in the world.

Replace the word instead and use aswell and you'll do better.[/QUOTE]


If you can get out at/near the top and in at/near the bottom then there is absolutely no point in doing anything else as well.

Except for becoming the worlds richest person very quickly.

[justakiwi]

Because I am sick to death of these threads being filled up with ridiculous game-playing posts. People like you, and posts like yours, are ruining this thread.

If you're that bored, go tidy your room, or mow the lawns for your Mum. And take your buddy Balance with you.

EDIT: welcome to my ignore list.


This is a public forum...I don't even attack or saying harsh things about u....why u like that?

Be kind.... lesson from Our beloved Jacinda

[Fortunecookie]

U forgot one universe rule balance.... people will get old and die. If I had a chance, I would buy a funeral home.

Yep that funeral stock went up 30% in a month. Not bad for a company not correlated with the economy. It's apithy I talked myself out it after a week and settled for 8%.

[X-men]

I am not bored...I bought some OCA shares and gave an great insider news....no CR.

What I done to u....don't treat different because I am a Maori

[SailorRob]

Because I am sick to death of these threads being filled up with ridiculous game-playing posts. People like you, and posts like yours, are ruining this thread.

If you're that bored, go tidy your room, or mow the lawns for your Mum. And take your buddy Balance with you.


It is partly my fault as I always rise to the bait.

I did think of asking him if his Mum bought the 4000 shares for him but didn't want to offend other smaller holders.

[Balance]

Because I am sick to death of these threads being filled up with ridiculous game-playing posts. People like you, and posts like yours, are ruining this thread.

If you're that bored, go tidy your room, or mow the lawns for your Mum. And take your buddy Balance with you.

And deprive posters here of my glistening & pure pearls of profound wisdom and hard earned experience?

You are being most unkind, JAK - read Ryman thread and you will appreciate why some posters saved themselves a lot of grief and money by following my posts.

Please don’t desecrate the legacy of your dear ex-leader Ardern. She may be clueless but she sure knew how to spin a tale/tail or three!!! One source of truth!

[SailorRob]

I am not bored...I bought some OCA shares and gave an great insider news....no CR.

What I done to u....don't treat different because I am a Maori


Nobody here cares if you're a wealthy old white man or a crippled, black, transgender Torres straight islander mate.

We just care if you contribute to the thread or are here to respectfully learn.

Nobody gives a crap about your race.

[X-men]

But I never attacked anyone of u....I am posting the facts and the holders frustration

[Fortunecookie]

X-men I take the comment back.

Nothing against you. It was just a moment of insanity.

Take care.

[Gunner]

[QUOTE=X-men;1000725]But I never attacked anyone of u....I am posting the facts and the holders

Money doesn't care what race you are. Neither should you.

[Balance]

Plenty of advertising all over the place for St Helier.

Whatever happened to the pent up demand and huge wait list for the units in this super luxurious retirement village?

An idea of how much the luxury end of the apartment market in the St Heliers/Mission Bay Area has fallen - $1.3m loss on $5m.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ive-got-to-face-reality-5m-mission-bay-penthouse-sells-at-a-loss-43223

St Helier advert wherever you read :

https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/location/the-helier?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=The_Helier_Phase-1&dclid=CMeXjozjw_4CFamiZgId3ToDcw

[SailorRob]

An idea of how much the luxury end of the apartment market in the St Heliers/Mission Bay Area has fallen - $1.3m loss on $5m.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ive-got-to-face-reality-5m-mission-bay-penthouse-sells-at-a-loss-43223

St Helier advert wherever you read :

https://oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/location/the-helier?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=The_Helier_Phase-1&dclid=CMeXjozjw_4CFamiZgId3ToDcw

Great advert, and what a stunning facility.

I would be happy to supply capital to them to turn a bunch of raw materials into something so useful and exclusive for humanity.

[RupertBear]

Most unlike you, JAK.

Remember our dearly beloved exPM Cindy’s exhortation of ‘Be Kind’!

Poor Cindy will be so gutted that her ‘be kind’ message is so soon forgotten after she left the stage.

You trying to get her to stage a comeback so she can spread her brand of leadership again?

Transparency, kindness and one slice of truth! How we miss her.

Dont waste your breath trying to bait JAK Balance she has had you on ignore for quite sometime :D

[Eden]

Probably a waste of time but when you see it, call it out. SailorRob - your comment carries a pretty clear racial bias - a spectrum that has wealthy old white men at one end and more diverse individuals at the other end. The irony is you were using this comment to suggest that you don't care about race.....

[mistaTea]

Probably a waste of time but when you see it, call it out. SailorRob - your comment carries a pretty clear racial bias - a spectrum that has wealthy old white men at one end and more diverse individuals at the other end. The irony is you were using this comment to suggest that you don't care about race.....

Now hang on a minute!

SB never said the crippled black tranny wasn't wealthy!

You just ASSUMED that you racist, bigotted TERF creep!

Sorry, I saw it and was just compelled to 'call it out' :t_up:

[Curly]

Probably a waste of time but when you see it, call it out. SailorRob - your comment carries a pretty clear racial bias - a spectrum that has wealthy old white men at one end and more diverse individuals at the other end. The irony is you were using this comment to suggest that you don't care about race.....
Find another platform.

[bull....]

Probably a waste of time but when you see it, call it out. SailorRob - your comment carries a pretty clear racial bias - a spectrum that has wealthy old white men at one end and more diverse individuals at the other end. The irony is you were using this comment to suggest that you don't care about race.....

forum full of old cis white males who think they understand oca

[Perky]

Probably a waste of time but when you see it, call it out. SailorRob - your comment carries a pretty clear racial bias - a spectrum that has wealthy old white men at one end and more diverse individuals at the other end. The irony is you were using this comment to suggest that you don't care about race.....

The sailor only cares about ROCE not race.

Did you realise Eden that Mt eden road has a spectrum that has wealthy white men at one end ( the village end) and more diverse individuals at the other end (3 kings). I declare Mt eden road to have a racial bias.

[bull....]

This is a public forum...I don't even attack or saying harsh things about u....why u like that?

Be kind.... lesson from Our beloved Jacinda

dont take it to heart they attack anyone who has a negative take on oca

abanakho ukuqonda ngale ndaba njengathi

[SailorRob]

Probably a waste of time but when you see it, call it out. SailorRob - your comment carries a pretty clear racial bias - a spectrum that has wealthy old white men at one end and more diverse individuals at the other end. The irony is you were using this comment to suggest that you don't care about race.....


Correct. My comment carried the crystal clear racial bias being aggressively promoted by the rabid leftist ideologues who are probably about 3% of the population but seem to be controlling the narrative.

The design of this racial spectrum that is being promoted is to catch the likes of X-men so they can be manipulated for political agenda.

I have never seen a hint of racism on Sharetrader. Whoever said SR cares only about ROCE is exactly right.

For what it's worth the Sailor is not White nor old and not wealthy by the standards of a wealthy old white man. I'm confident I'm browner than X-men. I come from a mixed race family and my Mother was a Refugee. Not a Golriz Ghahraman 747 refugee, a real one who spent 5 Months in a Refugee camp whilst millions around her were killed and left in the streets to rot.

Is anyone prepared to debate or add further the post I wrote this morning about OCA asset financing and the math on the return? Why are we not discussing things like this instead of going on a massive tangent?

Come on lets get some proper discussion going on about OCA.

[X-men]

Man .. leave me alone....be kind to me....I only post facts

[mistaTea]

Is anyone prepared to debate or add further the post I wrote this morning about OCA asset financing and the math on the return? Why are we not discussing things like this instead of going on a massive tangent?



Interesting views on OCA. And everyone will have differet approaches (in terms of 'the math') of how they value the company...

If you understand the business, ultimately you have to write the story "Today, I am buying OCA for half a billion dollars because..."

I think you have explained your 'because' very well over a number of posts, and if you are right then OCA will be worth considerably more than $500M in the future.

[SailorRob]

Arvida, rayman, OCA ..need to be delisted....what a waste...


Man .. leave me alone....be kind to me....I only post facts



Your contributions to this thread are looked forward to by us all X-men.

[SailorRob]

Interesting views on OCA. And everyone will have differet approaches (in terms of 'the math') of how they value the company...

If you understand the business, ultimately you have to write the story "Today, I am buying OCA for half a billion dollars because..."

I think you have explained your 'because' very well over a number of posts, and if you are right then OCA will be worth considerably more than $500M in the future.


Worth considerably more right now! And that is investing for you right there.

Anyone care to opine on what you'd have to pay for OCA in a private transaction?

[X-men]

I was posting the fact....OCA's assets valued around $2.5 b... market is now valuing $500m....

Is it a waste? Yes....I would said.. should be delisted and PE should buy it at $1

[SailorRob]

I was posting the fact....OCA's assets valued around $2.5 b... market is now valuing $500m....

Is it a waste? Yes....I would said.. should be delisted and PE should buy it at $1


Care to opine about ANZ's assets valued at over a Trillion and market value 75 Billion?

In case you don't realise 75 Billion is less than a trillion, 7.5% of a trillion...

Is that also a waste?

[Bjauck]

Now hang on a minute!

SB never said the crippled black tranny wasn't wealthy!

You just ASSUMED that you racist, bigotted TERF creep!

Sorry, I saw it and was just compelled to 'call it out' :t_up:I’d wager that old, European males are the wealthiest group in NZ. However a good point - If you read enough bigotry, It can start to affect you. Although I am not sure if it makes you bigoted though….

’It would be interesting to know the age and ethnic breakdown of OCA individual shareholders. I am always answering those questions when accessing healthcare but not when I buy shares. I think it would be illuminating to show which companies appeal to which category of shareholder.

[X-men]

U must be so deep in loss sailor moon and over invested.. that why u so agitated all the time when the SP falling

[mistaTea]

I’d wager that old, European males are the wealthiest group in NZ.

I mean, that is an established fact? I don't think anyone would take the other side of that bet.

We should stick to discussions about the intrinsic value of OCA.

[mistaTea]

With all the chatter, I couldn't help but start to take a closer look at OCA.

It is interesting to me that their Depreciation charge at the last annual report was only ~$24M when total plant/property was valued at ~$2B.

I would have thought it would be at least double that.

$63M of revenue is based on a change in fair value of investment property. Not really earnings in the true sense?

Assuming I don't deduct any of the other 'earnings' stated (though I think the ~$10M of gain on business assets should probably go too), that would reduce revenue to $245M.

Subtract $252M expenses...and subtract another $26M to get a better reflection of true depreciation...and OCA Owner Earnings is -$33M.

Just some quick back of the envelope to help me form an initial impression - with OCR rises squeezing property values, plus OCA struggling to earn money at the moment - I guess I can see why the market has been tough on her right now.

Cashflow statement makes for grim reading (and I think echoes my income statement workings to a large degree). Paying a $20M dividend is very questionable I think.

[nztx]

With all the chatter, I couldn't help but start to take a closer look at OCA.

It is interesting to me that their Depreciation charge at the last annual report was only ~$24M when total plant/property was valued at ~$2B.

I would have thought it would be at least double that.

$63M of revenue is based on a change in fair value of investment property. Not really earnings in the true sense?

Assuming I don't deduct any of the other 'earnings' stated (though I think the ~$10M of gain on business assets should probably go too), that would reduce revenue to $245M.

Subtract $252M expenses...and subtract another $26M to get a better reflection of true depreciation...and OCA Owner Earnings is -$33M.

Just some quick back of the envelope to help me form an initial impression - with OCR rises squeezing property values, plus OCA struggling to earn money at the moment - I guess I can see why the market has been tough on her right now.

Cashflow statement makes for grim reading (and I think echoes my income statement workings to a large degree). Paying a $20M dividend is very questionable I think.


Very similar to the exercise I did a while back

Interestingly, others in the sector show similar symptoms .. :)

[Sideshow Bob]

With all the chatter, I couldn't help but start to take a closer look at OCA.

It is interesting to me that their Depreciation charge at the last annual report was only ~$24M when total plant/property was valued at ~$2B.

I would have thought it would be at least double that.

$63M of revenue is based on a change in fair value of investment property. Not really earnings in the true sense?

Assuming I don't deduct any of the other 'earnings' stated (though I think the ~$10M of gain on business assets should probably go too), that would reduce revenue to $245M.

Subtract $252M expenses...and subtract another $26M to get a better reflection of true depreciation...and OCA Owner Earnings is -$33M.

Just some quick back of the envelope to help me form an initial impression - with OCR rises squeezing property values, plus OCA struggling to earn money at the moment - I guess I can see why the market has been tough on her right now.

Cashflow statement makes for grim reading (and I think echoes my income statement workings to a large degree). Paying a $20M dividend is very questionable I think.

Whaaaat, some actual analysis and rational discussion of OCA.

This thread is going to the dogs......!!

[bull....]

With all the chatter, I couldn't help but start to take a closer look at OCA.

It is interesting to me that their Depreciation charge at the last annual report was only ~$24M when total plant/property was valued at ~$2B.

I would have thought it would be at least double that.

$63M of revenue is based on a change in fair value of investment property. Not really earnings in the true sense?

Assuming I don't deduct any of the other 'earnings' stated (though I think the ~$10M of gain on business assets should probably go too), that would reduce revenue to $245M.

Subtract $252M expenses...and subtract another $26M to get a better reflection of true depreciation...and OCA Owner Earnings is -$33M.

Just some quick back of the envelope to help me form an initial impression - with OCR rises squeezing property values, plus OCA struggling to earn money at the moment - I guess I can see why the market has been tough on her right now.

Cashflow statement makes for grim reading (and I think echoes my income statement workings to a large degree). Paying a $20M dividend is very questionable I think.

can the div ... yes

[Bjauck]

I mean, that is an established fact? I don't think anyone would take the other side of that bet.

We should stick to discussions about the intrinsic value of OCA.
You are allowed an attack post that deviates, but you want to cancel me? Besides the OCA thread is not limited to intrinsic value discussion. Wondering which group of investor is attracted to an investment in OCA is a relevant post.

[YoungBull]

With all the chatter, I couldn't help but start to take a closer look at OCA.

It is interesting to me that their Depreciation charge at the last annual report was only ~$24M when total plant/property was valued at ~$2B.

I would have thought it would be at least double that.

$63M of revenue is based on a change in fair value of investment property. Not really earnings in the true sense?

Assuming I don't deduct any of the other 'earnings' stated (though I think the ~$10M of gain on business assets should probably go too), that would reduce revenue to $245M.

Subtract $252M expenses...and subtract another $26M to get a better reflection of true depreciation...and OCA Owner Earnings is -$33M.

Just some quick back of the envelope to help me form an initial impression - with OCR rises squeezing property values, plus OCA struggling to earn money at the moment - I guess I can see why the market has been tough on her right now.

Cashflow statement makes for grim reading (and I think echoes my income statement workings to a large degree). Paying a $20M dividend is very questionable I think.

Thanks for this. I am still trying to understand their accounts (and accounting generally).

Is underlying profit a useful metric to assess the financial performance of the Co? This removes changes in asset value etc. Can anyone tell me why underlying is a bad metric to use (in these accounts in particular)?

I also note the directors consider 'underlying profit' (i.e. less change in value of property) when considering the dividend paid (see note 2.1 contd.). Does this mean anything?

[SailorRob]

You are allowed an attack post that deviates, but you want to cancel me? Besides the OCA thread is not limited to intrinsic value discussion. Wondering which group of investor is attracted to an investment in OCA is a relevant post.

Yes but racism, anti transgender bigotry and abelism won't be tolerated and by automatically making assumptions about people falling into these categories your true colours have been shown.

Gotta call it when you see it.

[Leemsip]

Hi Young bull.


I run a sort of complex method of taking operating cashflow, adding in lease payments, add in maintenance capex and try to unmuddle any non-repeatable costs and revenue. Need a spreadsheet and a bit of time to figure out whats what to get to underlying..

Super difficult with these retirement operators as a lot of cashflow is due to buying and selling units and building new ones...

If you want to contact me Ill show you my basic spreadsheet for valuation.....

[YoungBull]

Hi Young bull.


I run a sort of complex method of taking operating cashflow, adding in lease payments, add in maintenance capex and try to unmuddle any non-repeatable costs and revenue. Need a spreadsheet and a bit of time to figure out whats what to get to underlying..

Super difficult with these retirement operators as a lot of cashflow is due to buying and selling units and building new ones...

If you want to contact me Ill show you my basic spreadsheet for valuation.....

That would be really helpful. Will message you now.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for this. I am still trying to understand their accounts (and accounting generally).

Is underlying profit a useful metric to assess the financial performance of the Co? This removes changes in asset value etc. Can anyone tell me why underlying is a bad metric to use (in these accounts in particular)?

I also note the directors consider 'underlying profit' (i.e. less change in value of property) when considering the dividend paid (see note 2.1 contd.). Does this mean anything?

Underlying profit is not defined in the accounting standards, i.e. anybody can make up what they like. It is not comparable and it might change over reporting periods. It might be profit without evaluation gains. It might be profit without one off gains (or more often losses), no matter how often they happen. Underlying profit has nothing to do with the financial position of the company, but sure - some people love it. CFO's belong to this group of people. So easy to hide what you want to hide.

As well - underlying profit is not real. If a buy a house for 1m and it appreciates, than it does not make sense if I only book this profit if I sell the house after say 15 years for twice the price.

Obviously - the alternative is based on valuations, which may or may not capture reality, but ignoring the increase in value instead (as the underlying profit would do) is clearly not sensible.

But anyway - this is as well a discussion where different groups have different and deeply entrenched opinions, i.e. I am sure you get other views as well :) ; Best is - form you own opinion, agree with yourself on one method and use this for your investment activities. You should be fine as long as you understand what your definitions mean and as long as you use them consistently. However - if you use any metrics which is not standardized, never ever trust anybody with an agenda (like the CFO) to calculate these values for you. Do it yourself.

Ah yes - and whatever metrics you use - always remember: Past performance is no indicator for future performance, i.e. maybe we sometimes overestimate the value of these numbers anyway.

[Balance]

68c all taken out.

Next stop 65c and the bid side towards there looks pretty thin!

[BlackPeter]

68c all taken out.

Next stop 65c and the bid side towards there looks pretty thin!

Baseless teasing, as so often ... so far the 68 seem to hold quite comfortably and lots of support considering the thin volumes traded today.

More importantly - did any of the resident scaremongers and teasers notice that both Ryman and Arvida dropped today further down than OCA did?

Looking at the low traded today (well, so far):

ARV low down 2 cents (1.9%)
OCA low down 1 cent (1,4%)
RYM low down 14 cents (2.5%)

Obviously - this is all just jitter and it looks like SP swapping back anyway, but using the OCA data for share specific scaremongering - this is just kindergarten stuff.

Pretty bad style.

[winner69]

The SUM guys at ASM today weren’t too gloomy about the future …that’s good

But from what they said about the last few months it’s hard to see OCA printing a half decent result for F23

[winner69]

Baseless teasing, as so often ... so far the 68 seem to hold quite comfortably and lots of support considering the thin volumes traded today.

More importantly - did any of the resident scaremongers and teasers notice that both Ryman and Arvida dropped today further down than OCA did?

Looking at the low traded today (well, so far):

ARV low down 2 cents (1.9%)
OCA low down 1 cent (1,4%)
RYM low down 14 cents (2.5%)

Obviously - this is all just jitter and it looks like SP swapping back anyway, but using the OCA data for share specific scaremongering - this is just kindergarten stuff.

Pretty bad style.


Jeez Peter ….you really have fallen in love with this Oceania haven’t you.

Defending them to the hilt and getting really grumpy at anybody who berates or is negative about them…a true loyalist

Admire your passion …but please please don’t let it blur your judgement.

[justakiwi]

Better than being the resident **** stirrer.



Jeez Peter ….you really have fallen in love with this Oceania haven’t you.

Defending them to the hilt and getting really grumpy at anybody who berates or is negative about them…a true loyalist

[Balance]

The SUM guys at ASM today weren’t too gloomy about the future …that’s good

But from what they said about the last few months it’s hard to see OCA printing a half decent result for F23

The amount of advertising they are doing on St Helier suggests it’s hard yakka trying to sell luxurious and highly priced units in this kind of market.

Sp just hit 67c.

Any bids at 68c are taken out almost immediately, hence the low volume today.

[Bjauck]

Yes but racism, anti transgender bigotry and abelism won't be tolerated and by automatically making assumptions about people falling into these categories your true colours have been shown.

Gotta call it when you see it. First, I suggest your read the thread before making such an allegation. Otherwise you risk confusing who posted what.

[BlackPeter]

Jeez Peter ….you really have fallen in love with this Oceania haven’t you.

Defending them to the hilt and getting really grumpy at anybody who berates or is negative about them…a true loyalist

Admire your passion …but please please don’t let it blur your judgement.

Nothing to do with falling in love with OCA. I just notice that bullying, harassing and teasing seems to get worse in this forum. Might be related to the lack of moderation, I don't know.

I just wish posters could still behave like somewhat responsible grown ups ... and we could get back to relevant discussions about companies instead of some of this kindergarten stuff, not just on the OCA thread.

There used to be a time when share trader was a valuable resource for people who wanted to learn about investing. And sure, we still have some valuable contributions (Mav comes to mind on this thread with his outstanding analysis of OCA, but there are others as well). However - the general standard of discussions seems to have dropped to hot copper level - and I am not sure, whether it can get much worse without us loosing all real contributors.

Just think about how many promising new posters we had coming in over the last say 12 months. There might be some (I don't see all posts), but the number of good new contributors dropped significantly - I recon most people are just put off by stirrers and worse a number of trolls. Many of the old good contributors turned their back already to the forum ... and many of the people who just hang around are sitting on the fence.

While balance is certainly not the worst of the offenders (and sometimes makes as well quite valuable contributions), this childish stirring has no place on a grown up forum.

[Balance]

Nothing to do with falling in love with OCA.

While balance is certainly not the worst of the offenders (and sometimes makes as well quite valuable contributions), this childish stirring has no place on a grown up forum.

Strong language BP and it cannot go unchallenged for the benefit of those who read my posts (and other posters’ thoughts) objectively without emotional attachment to the stock.

Commenting on the sp and where imo it is heading could be considered stirring, I guess

but

it is extremely pertinent to anyone contemplating investing in the stock surely.

OCA’s sp has been making new lows week by week with institutional selling and retail buying - something is up so I make my comments here in the light of a potential CR by the company, just as I was the first one to make the same observation with Ryman.

Let’s not delude ourselves here that posters on ST can influence OCA’s sp to any meaningful extent - the instos make the market.

[Baa_Baa]

Strong language BP and it cannot go unchallenged for the benefit of those who read my posts (and other posters’ thoughts) objectively without emotional attachment to the stock.

Commenting on the sp and where imo it is heading could be considered stirring, I guess

but

it is extremely pertinent to anyone contemplating investing in the stock surely.

OCA’s sp has been making new lows week by week with institutional selling and retail buying - something is up so I make my comments here in the light of a potential CR by the company, just as I was the first one to make the same observation with Ryman.

Let’s not delude ourselves here that posters on ST can influence OCA’s sp to any meaningful extent - the instos make the market.

I find it refreshing, that you are obviously interested in OCA and have been for some time, but at the right price (preferably capitulation), as we all should be but few seem to have the skills or patience to identify it. I've bought recently a few but very small parcels compared to my holding which is already at an average far below NTA. But the cash stash waiting for the same thing you're looking for is growing and when the time comes it'll be who can get in the entry door at the best price, rather than which suckers are still selling to us.

This is why we love the market, especially decade long opportunities to make decade or longer investments. Good luck to you, the only real difference I feel is that I don't need to talk it down, albeit I take your point that none of us have any material effect on the SP. That said, we've seen situations over the years where the membership here and lurkers here are influenced, they follow, and they buy, they sell, but they are always followers, and that is enough to boost the SP either way.

It takes time to 'balance' (excuse the pun) ones perception of 'investing', versus when it is the best time to buy and sell in the 'market'. One can amplify the other, either way.

[Balance]

Baa Baa,

There may some posters here foolish enough to believe that they can talk stocks down or up and yes, I guess it’s possible if said stocks are illiquid and retail driven. Fact is that we are but little minnows in the market dominated by the big fishes/instos.

I pass on my observations and it’s entirely up to posters here or elsewhere to take heed or not. Don’t blame me for the sp going down or up!

Back to OCA, the stock is certainly worth watching just as Ryman was/is. I don’t believe however that there’s a wall of money waiting to pounce and to scoop up OCA shares in the event of a CR. Just have to look at Ryman’s CR & its aftermath to know that the market is way overweight on RVs and has limited appetite for more stock.

BTW, I am picking a 1 for 3 rights issue at 55c for OCA in the event of a CR to raise $130m.

[Baa_Baa]

Baa Baa,

There may some posters here foolish enough to believe that they can talk stocks down or up and yes, I guess it’s possible if said stocks are illiquid and retail driven. Fact is that we are but little minnows in the market dominated by the big fishes/instos.

I pass on my observations and it’s entirely up to posters here or elsewhere to take heed or not. Don’t blame me for the sp going down or up!

Back to OCA, the stock is certainly worth watching just as Ryman was/is. I don’t believe however that there’s a wall of money wasting to scoop up OCA shares in the event of a CR. Just have to look at Ryman’s CR & its aftermath to know that the market is way overweight on RVs and has limited appetite for more stock.

BTW, I am picking a 1 for 3 rights issue at 55c for OCA in the event of a CR to raise $130m.

I don't blame you, for the reasons you've said but there are more here than you care to consider, but know exist, who are easily influenced, with no real understanding of what they're investing in. Perhaps that's why you feel the need to inform them? There is some gallantry in that.

Some however just like to spread the nonsense because, the lower the entry price the better for momentum traders, and know there's plenty of folks who know nothing, the market is just casino to them, red win, black lose. Surprisingly many of the punters seem to have no appreciation or knowledge of FA, or TA. The followers, they're the ones you are talking to.

Many are here sitting on huge paper losses because once upon a time OCA was the 'cool thing', and now they're wondering why, like why was it, why did they buy, why didn't they sell, why should they buy, or buy more, 'why' eludes them. Gullible is, gullible was.

Personally, I think your hypothesis of a cap raise is very unlikely, as OCA did their debt raises at a good time at low interest rates and it will see them through the short-medium term developments without having to shore up their balance sheets or be exposed to banking covenants like RYM.

We'll see about that. Good luck again, capitulation might not be too far away, then we can rejoice together.

[Balance]

You are right, Baa Baa, about some posters sitting on huge losses on OCA & the other RV stocks, because the RV stocks were the flavour of several years before 2022.

They should then be extra mindful of the dynamics currently driving the RVs’ sp surely!

ST provides some useful insights if they care to sort out the trading posters like bull… from the fundamentalists like Mav.

Or if they are long term investors, simply ignore the market noise and like Buffett advised, imagine the market is closed for 5 years and look away.

Me? I like to try to know what’s going on at all times if at all possible.

[Muse]

Balance - rightly or wrongly I’ve always regarded OCA as a retail driven stock. Volumes are tiny, scant SSHs, low insto holdings, low turnover of outstanding shares.

Not sure your assertion that there is this wall of institutional holders selling out to retail holds up, though I haven’t done a proper register analysis and benchmarked it to its sector or companies with large insto coverage.

Is it not possible its just retail selling to retail? The minuscule volumes seem to imply this. The lack of liquidity and small trades to me reek a bit more of retail sentiment and as Baa Baa notes many who didnt understand what they bought selling for reasons predicated its on a downtrend.

When I can be arsed might do a proper review of its turnover of shares, register, and benchmark it to other RVs and market aves.

Reckon sentiment features more in illiquid stocks. And yes its not out of the question a thread like this can feature in short term movements - look at the thread views, watch daily thread counts, ive seen nearly 70 people looking at it just at one point today. In the context of just ~$163k traded today - with several hundred individuals who are potential sellers and buyers - its not inconceivable that it can have a short term impact. Its a feature of a low turnover stock.

As to the CR you may be right or wrong I simply dont know. Big RV research report out today - ICRs looked good. But there may be other reasons why equity may need to feature more in funding future developments.

[davflaws]

Better than being the resident **** stirrer.
Nah - unworthy of you. Lets all take a few deep breaths and reserve the brawling for the Off Market and Elections forums

[bull....]

Balance - rightly or wrongly I’ve always regarded OCA as a retail driven stock. Volumes are tiny, scant SSHs, low insto holdings, low turnover of outstanding shares.

Not sure your assertion that there is this wall of institutional holders selling out to retail holds up, though I haven’t done a proper register analysis and benchmarked it to its sector or companies with large insto coverage.

Is it not possible its just retail selling to retail? The minuscule volumes seem to imply this. The lack of liquidity and small trades to me reek a bit more of retail sentiment and as Baa Baa notes many who didnt understand what they bought selling for reasons predicated its on a downtrend.

When I can be arsed might do a proper review of its turnover of shares, register, and benchmark it to other RVs and market aves.

Reckon sentiment features more in illiquid stocks. And yes its not out of the question a thread like this can feature in short term movements - look at the thread views, watch daily thread counts, ive seen nearly 70 people looking at it just at one point today. In the context of just ~$163k traded today - with several hundred individuals who are potential sellers and buyers - its not inconceivable that it can have a short term impact. Its a feature of a low turnover stock.

As to the CR you may be right or wrong I simply dont know. Big RV research report out today - ICRs looked good. But there may be other reasons why equity may need to feature more in funding future developments.

mostly retail i would guess as share register does not look that loaded with institutions , only couple of outfits with more than 5%

[Entrep]

You are right, Baa Baa, about some posters sitting on huge losses on OCA & the other RV stocks, because the RV stocks were the flavour of several years before 2022.

They should then be extra mindful of the dynamics currently driving the RVs’ sp surely!

ST provides some useful insights if they care to sort out the trading posters like bull… from the fundamentalists like Mav.

Or if they are long term investors, simply ignore the market noise and like Buffett advised, imagine the market is closed for 5 years and look away.

Me? I like to try to know what’s going on at all times if at all possible.

I think Balance's posts in this thread are a great reminder to have patience when investing, especially stocks in a downtrend. It's hard to sit on your hands when something is perceived to be so cheap, but it can always go down more.

[Balance]

Balance - rightly or wrongly I’ve always regarded OCA as a retail driven stock. Volumes are tiny, scant SSHs, low insto holdings, low turnover of outstanding shares.

Not sure your assertion that there is this wall of institutional holders selling out to retail holds up, though I haven’t done a proper register analysis and benchmarked it to its sector or companies with large insto coverage.

Is it not possible its just retail selling to retail? The minuscule volumes seem to imply this. The lack of liquidity and small trades to me reek a bit more of retail sentiment and as Baa Baa notes many who didnt understand what they bought selling for reasons predicated its on a downtrend.


Annual Report 2022 showed :

Top 20 shareholders own 68% of the company with institutions owning 60.7% of the stock.
83% or 412 shareholders own 100,000 shares or more.

The low volumes seen to date are a function of institutions running out of retail investors taking the stock that they are attempting to sell off.

[BlackPeter]

Strong language BP and it cannot go unchallenged for the benefit of those who read my posts (and other posters’ thoughts) objectively without emotional attachment to the stock.

Commenting on the sp and where imo it is heading could be considered stirring, I guess

but

it is extremely pertinent to anyone contemplating investing in the stock surely.

OCA’s sp has been making new lows week by week with institutional selling and retail buying - something is up so I make my comments here in the light of a potential CR by the company, just as I was the first one to make the same observation with Ryman.

Let’s not delude ourselves here that posters on ST can influence OCA’s sp to any meaningful extent - the instos make the market.

Look, you well might underestimate the influence of forums like these. While I agree that it will likely have little impact on the big stocks, many stocks on the NZX are quite illiquid - and even with the others, there are many less financially experienced holders mainly following the forum - and if your teasing drives some of them into selling at low points, than I would classify this at least as irresponsible.

Your status and visibility on share trader give you a certain amount of "clout" over some novice ... and clout should be used responsible. Of course, this forum is for highlighting and discussing the pros and cons of any investment and this is what we should do. Nothing wrong with pointing out the risks as well as opportunities, but making absolutely baseless "predictions" (i.e. throwing random numbers around) in order to make other people feel bad (or to encourage them to take risks - you are not the only culprit throwing absolutely senseless random numbers around) and by consistently highlighting one of the race horses without even mentioning that it is actually running not too bad compared with the rest of the field - look, a novice might make mistakes like that because they are unexperienced. Given however that this excuse does not work for you - what is it in your case?

Really just the desire to tease people and make them squirm? - or the desire to get some more "reef fish" to sell out in despair to allow you to pick up some cheaper shares?

I hope you have a better explanation ...

[Antipodean]

Fact:


Annual Report 2022 showed :

Top 20 shareholders own 68% of the company with institutions owning 60.7% of the stock.
83% or 412 shareholders own 100,000 shares or more.

Speculation:


The low volumes seen to date are a function of institutions running out of retail investors taking the stock that they are attempting to sell off.

Edit: Interesting to note this went up between 2021 annual report (67.51) and 2022 annual report (68.42).

[Muse]

Annual Report 2022 showed :

Top 20 shareholders own 68% of the company with institutions owning 60.7% of the stock.
83% or 412 shareholders own 100,000 shares or more.

The low volumes seen to date are a function of institutions running out of retail investors taking the stock that they are attempting to sell off.

That's not entirely accurate. The top 20 table reflects registered holders, most of which are custodians holding underlying beneficial interests on account of others. Some of those will be instos, and some of those will be broker custodians holding on behalf of their retail client base. Some are nominees holding on behalf of other nominees (eg NZCSDL) and its difficult to trace through. But many on the top 20 list are custodians for retail funds. Many/most of the custodians shown in the top 20 - FNZ, Custodial Services, Forbar, Hobson Wealth, ASB, JB Were nom, hold for retail. OCA employees trustee holds for staff (retail). Tomlinson #6 and Harrogate #14 its own special class. And a few high net wealths. Most of the insto holdings probably in NZCSD - ACC, some kiwisaver, a few funds, and more nominees. There aren't many SSFs and the last one filed from ANZ showed them increasing their holding.

I'm not disputing there aren't institutions - I was questioning how the level of institutional ownership compares to say Summerset, Arvida, Ryman, and the market more broadly. And it's a question not a statement as I haven't done the work and was interested if you had.

You could be right on instos selling down to retail but I was curious if you had done work in support of it or if it was more acting on a hunch informed by experience. I only became interested as you alluded to a wall of insto selling and that price was being driven by the instos, and on a day where like only $160k traded.

I was dabbling with turnover metrics yesterday for Smartpay - an absolute microcap - 26% of its shares have turned over in the last year. OCA only 18% and the lowest of the RVs. Higher turnover often implies higher institutional coverage.

It's a worthy issue to consider whatever the factset is - retail and insto coverage - and how that feeds into low volume downtrends and high volume breakouts.

[Balance]

That's not entirely accurate. The top 20 table reflects registered holders, most of which are custodians holding underlying beneficial interests on account of others. Some of those will be instos, and some of those will be broker custodians holding on behalf of their retail client base. Some are nominees holding on behalf of other nominees (eg NZCSDL) and its difficult to trace through. But many on the top 20 list are custodians for retail funds. Many/most of the custodians shown in the top 20 - FNZ, Custodial Services, Forbar, Hobson Wealth, ASB, JB Were nom, hold for retail. OCA employees trustee holds for staff (retail). Tomlinson #6 and Harrogate #14 its own special class. And a few high net wealths. Most of the insto holdings probably in NZCSD - ACC, some kiwisaver, a few funds, and more nominees. There aren't many SSFs and the last one filed from ANZ showed them increasing their holding.

I'm not disputing there aren't institutions - I was questioning how the level of institutional ownership compares to say Summerset, Arvida, Ryman, and the market more broadly. And it's a question not a statement as I haven't done the work and was interested if you had.

You could be right on instos selling down to retail but I was curious if you had done work in support of it or if it was more acting on a hunch informed by experience. I only became interested as you alluded to a wall of insto selling and that price was being driven by the instos, and on a day where like only $160k traded.

I was dabbling with turnover metrics yesterday for Smartpay - an absolute microcap - 26% of its shares have turned over in the last year. OCA only 18% and the lowest of the RVs. Higher turnover often implies higher institutional coverage.

It's a worthy issue to consider whatever the factset is - retail and insto coverage - and how that feeds into low volume downtrends and high volume breakouts.

Put it this way - I talk to brokers and instos out there on a regular basis.

How many posters here do so and more to the point, bother to share that infor?

[Muse]

Put it this way - I talk to brokers and instos out there on a regular basis.

How many posters here do so and more to the point, bother to share that infor?

Gotcha - all good. And appreciate you sharing your perspectives.

Re your second point - I think more than you'd expect.

[X-men]

Which broker balance, my broker said no CR

[Balance]

Which broker balance, my broker said no CR

Which broker, x-men?

[Balance]

As posted on the RV operators thread :

Next potential blow to hit the RV industry :

Capital Gains Tax arising from the 'Ground breaking IRD Report on Taxes Paid by the Uber Rich' released yesterday.

Well worthwhile for shareholders and investors to think through carefully what how it will impact the profitability and cash flow of the industry if introduced.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ground-br...-to-tax-debate

This is going to hang around like a bad smell over the RV stocks until it's clarified one way or the other.

[Lego_Man]

Baa Baa,

There may some posters here foolish enough to believe that they can talk stocks down or up and yes, I guess it’s possible if said stocks are illiquid and retail driven. Fact is that we are but little minnows in the market dominated by the big fishes/instos.

I pass on my observations and it’s entirely up to posters here or elsewhere to take heed or not. Don’t blame me for the sp going down or up!

Back to OCA, the stock is certainly worth watching just as Ryman was/is. I don’t believe however that there’s a wall of money waiting to pounce and to scoop up OCA shares in the event of a CR. Just have to look at Ryman’s CR & its aftermath to know that the market is way overweight on RVs and has limited appetite for more stock.

BTW, I am picking a 1 for 3 rights issue at 55c for OCA in the event of a CR to raise $130m.

Ryman's big raise was hard for the market to digest, being of such large size. And that's a large and liquid name where everyone can own meaningfully. As always you want to be early in the cycle...but if OCA do need to raise just over $100m though, that's a lot more digestible in today's markets.

If you consider what needs to be raised potentially by the REITs in the next 12 months, i don't think it would be a dumb move to do a precautionary raise now. Cutting the dividend would have a worse SP impact.

[Baa_Baa]

Arvida no CR....a lot of ST members believe no CR. Recent insider said no CR


I am not bored...I bought some OCA shares and gave an great insider news....no CR.

What I done to u....don't treat different because I am a Maori


Which broker balance, my broker said no CR

So X-men, is your broker the "insider" that you referred to in previous posts?

[Balance]

Gotcha - all good. And appreciate you sharing your perspectives.

Re your second point - I think more than you'd expect.

A handful and I believe I can name & we should all thank them but that would be highly inappropriate.

The brokers out there get pretty aggro at times when their ‘infor’ be them good or bad are shared.

[winner69]

Share price having an up day today

That’s good

[Rawz]

Share price having an up day today

That’s good

Just the insto's pushing the price up to finish the day before further selling tomorrow into the retail suckers.

thought id save Balance from having to remind everyone whats going on

[X-men]

Wow.. finally price action

I could not disclose my broker name. But if u all wanted to know.. it starts with F

[nztx]

Share price having an up day today

That’s good


What ? .. up 1 down 1 ? :)

[X-men]

Come bro..I am in profit now....don't let my spirit run off

[Baa_Baa]

So X-men, is your broker the "insider" that you referred to in previous posts?

X-Men, did you understand the question?

[X-men]

Me...no understanding but I am in the moon now ..

[SailorRob]

Put it this way - I talk to brokers and instos out there on a regular basis.

How many posters here do so and more to the point, bother to share that infor?


Why the hell would we, or admit to it?

Be better off talking to street girls on K road.

[SailorRob]

Share price having an up day today

That’s good


No that's bad.

[winner69]

No that's bad.

Didn’t you buy as many as you wanted yesterday Rob

Knew your absence was buying like no yesterday or whatever the phrase

[justakiwi]

It definitely makes me feel bad, as I have no spare cash to take advantage of it.


No that's bad.

[SailorRob]

Didn’t you buy as many as you wanted yesterday Rob

Knew your absence was buying like no yesterday or whatever the phrase


Sold most of my META this morning that I started buying at $211.

If it had gone from $211 to current price of $240 with my small position, would be pretty average.

But.

It dropped to 89.

And I loaded the gun bigly in the low 90's.

And I made bank.

So now need to find somewhere for capital to go.

And.

Lower prices are better than high.

[SailorRob]

It definitely makes me feel bad, as I have no spare cash to take advantage of it.


You have no spare cash now.

But you have dividends coming in and you're working so over time you can deploy more capital into OCA.

Would you rather do this at 40c or $2.

[ValueNZ]

You have no spare cash now.

But you have dividends coming in and you're working so over time you can deploy more capital into OCA.

Would you rather do this at 40c or $2.

I wouldn't be purchasing Oceania shares at $2, I'd be selling. I understand your point regardless as a lower price means more shares

[SailorRob]

I wouldn't be purchasing Oceania shares at $2, I'd be selling. I understand your point regardless as a lower price means more shares


I certainly would not be a seller at $2. Not unless I was in desperate need of cash.

[ValueNZ]

I certainly would not be a seller at $2. Not unless I was in desperate need of cash.
What do you estimate OCA's value to be? At what point would you be willing to sell?

[bull....]

looks like balances institutional sellers have finished ?

[SailorRob]

What do you estimate OCA's value to be? At what point would you be willing to sell?


Intrinsic value around 2 billion, so four times the current cap, maybe around $2.80. This is a rough estimate.

I'd be unwilling to sell while they continue to compound the float at at 26% CAGR, I mean that's just insane, show me one other business in the world doing that.

And this is the thing with OCA, what I am saying is that I'm attracted most because their liabilities are exploding... If liabilities don't continue to grow I'm no longer interested.

Very few people will understand this.

The schoolboy who's parents loan him more and more money with no strings attached interest free while interest rates explode around the world, he's a popular fellow.

[RTM]

It definitely makes me feel bad, as I have no spare cash to take advantage of it.

Wait ‘till they stop paying the dividend……you may get another chance.

[Entrep]

It definitely makes me feel bad, as I have no spare cash to take advantage of it.

Do you have a strategy with OCA? Like how much of it you'd like to own, what % of your portfolio it should take up, how far it could drop/rise before you stop buying?

[justakiwi]

As most here are aware, I am a very small investor, who only started investing about 5 years ago. I am 62. So my investing began way too late to ever be a "get rich" project. It has simply been a way to make what disposable income I have, work for me, in an effort to provide myself with a little more financial security in my retirement. I own no property and have no non-cash assets. Up until last week I was working part time on a below average income, but I am now "between jobs" so all investing is currently on hold.

If am so far out of you guys league it's ridiculous, but I'm ok with that. I have faith in this company, and I have patience. I just don't have any disposable income to invest now. If I did, I'd be following Sailor Rob's lead and buying more at these prices.


Do you have a strategy with OCA? Like how much of it you'd like to own, what % of your portfolio it should take up, how far it could drop/rise before you stop buying?

[Leemsip]

I also bought META at $90.. bought way too much and couldnt sleep at night... sold for a small profit... huge miss...

[SailorRob]

I also bought META at $90.. bought way too much and couldnt sleep at night... sold for a small profit... huge miss...


Oh you poor bugger!

I bought many times on the way to 90 and by complete luck loaded the boat in the low 90's but no way was that my average price, but allowed me to put a lot of capital in.

It's not just about returns it's about sizing as well and although it wasn't my highest return it was by far the biggest $ amount.

[SailorRob]

As most here are aware, I am a very small investor, who only started investing about 5 years ago. I am 62. So my investing began way too late to ever be a "get rich" project. It has simply been a way to make what disposable income I have, work for me, in an effort to provide myself with a little more financial security in my retirement. I own no property and have no non-cash assets. Up until last week I was working part time on a below average income, but I am now "between jobs" so all investing is currently on hold.

If am so far out of you guys league it's ridiculous, but I'm ok with that. I have faith in this company, and I have patience. I just don't have any disposable income to invest now. If I did, I'd be following Sailor Rob's lead and buying more at these prices.


For full disclosure, I'm not currently buying. Last lot I bought about a Month ago at 72c.

There are so many opportunities currently, Q1 letter after letter I am reading things like;

'Despite thisquarter’s gain, the gulf between our securities’ trading prices and their intrinsic values is as largeas I have ever observed. Fourth quarter 2022 earnings were very good overall'

And

'Fund Holdings are at Incredibly Attractive PricesOn the whole, as of the end of March 2023, the fund’s holdings were trading at 5.1times our estimate of earnings for the coming year, and 4 times expected earningsnet of cash at the respective businesses'.

While the general market remains expensive we are also in a generational buying opportunity for value and small cap type stuff.

I would buy more here, but am looking at a few other opportunities as well. Any dividends will be going back in for sure.

[bottomfeeder]

Bit of a run this afternoon. If this is based on some insider knowledge, the naysayers and panic merchants who are basing their comments on speculation (even though there may be some small basis for the speculation) have scared buyers who may have purchased at 67 or 68.

We will see.

[Balance]

Bit of a run this afternoon. If this is based on some insider knowledge, the naysayers and panic merchants who are basing their comments on speculation (even though there may be some small basis for the speculation) have scared buyers who may have purchased at 67 or 68.

We will see.

Closed at 69c today - where was the run? A long way from the $1.00 which some punters here held out to be the floor for the sp.

If anyone believes that OCA is going to go back to $1.00 and is holding out to buy at 1c cheaper at 68c vs 69c where they have been trading today, they need their head read! As they say, being a dick for a tick!

[winner69]

Closed at 69c today - where was the run? A long way from the $1.00 which some punters here held out to be the floor for the sp.

If anyone believes that OCA is going to go back to $1.00 and is holding out to buy at 1c cheaper at 68c vs 69c where they have been trading today, they need their head read! As they say, being a dick for a tick!


Bit of a dump at end of the day /week eh

[bottomfeeder]

Closed at 69c today - where was the run? A long way from the $1.00 which some punters here held out to be the floor for the sp.

If anyone believes that OCA is going to go back to $1.00 and is holding out to buy at 1c cheaper at 68c vs 69c where they have been trading today, they need their head read! As they say, being a dick for a tick!

Feeling guilty? Yes you. Ran up to 71 today. Your speculation may have scared those off who felt it was time to buy in. Lets just see where we end up in the coming weeks before your speculations run wild again.

[Baa_Baa]

You think Balance affects the market? Think again, there’s bigger forces at play here, today was them challenging the bottom, a few cents on a lot of shares. None of us are significant in the market, it helps to realise this truth.

[Entrep]

If people are scared off buying they need to take some responsibility for their own financial decisions. Such talk is nonsense.

[bottomfeeder]

If people are scared off buying they need to take some responsibility for their own financial decisions. Such talk is nonsense.

Everything you read even from definite trolls, affects your decision making to some extent. It's just human nature. I am not saying the pessimistic speculaters, are treated as investment advisors and decisions are based on their 'propaganda'.

I would suggest your wife's comments on your investment decisions affects future decisions somewhat as well.

[SailorRob]

Everything you read even from definite trolls, can but doesn't have to and shouldn't affect your decision making to some extent. It's just human nature. I am not saying the pessimistic speculaters, are treated as investment advisors and decisions are based on their 'propaganda'.

I would suggest your wife's comments on your investment decisions affects future decisions somewhat as well.


It's the ability to rationalise human nature and emotion that is what counts in this game.

[SailorRob]

If you have just built a high quality and obviously brand new house in one of Auckland's most exclusive locations and (using round numbers to keep it easy, multiply by 3 if you wish) it cost you $800,000 to buy the land and build just before inflation took off and repriced all the materials and labour you used by + 20%, and now the market value for what you have created is $1 million and dropping by the day,

And you have got a permanent interest free loan on the house for $500,000 that you never have to pay back, this loan was super cool when all your mates were borrowing any amount they liked at 2.5% but it's even cooler now when fa people can get money and when they can it's 5+% and then you have another loan of around 200k that is locked in at around 3%.

And you can rent the house out at a very good yield on the amount of money you have put down after all expenses.

If a multitude of people came to your front door and offered you 250k cash for this whole thing you have (including the interest free loan which will go with the house)

And your wife told you that you're stupid and you should sell.

And a dude called 'Balance' from the internet said the same.

And all the people offering you the 250k said the same.

Should you let these people affect how you see reality and make you feel like you should sell your hose with interest free loan

Or should you call the nearest mental institution and have them all committed.

If everyone tells you that Black is white, what difference does it make to you?

Now what if an identical house was available next door on the same terms? Do you buy it or do you take instruction from people that live in an asylum?

[Entrep]

The key to analysing and potentially using ANY information on the internet is developing a good sense of who to follow and believe and who not to.

99.9% of the information online is BS and a complete waste of time. This is information about ANYTHING, as I said.

[SailorRob]

The key to analysing and potentially using ANY information on the internet is developing a good sense of who to follow and believe and who not to.

99.9% of the information online is BS and a complete waste of time. This is information about ANYTHING, as I said.


Yep, so in finance, on economy and interest rates follow people who have a long term track record of predictive ability even if only slight.

Here is a list of people that meet this criteria.

[X-men]

Very good post sailormoon.....one of your best posts so far ..

Go OCA.... don't let all the trolls bash your SP

[SailorRob]

Nasty piece of share ...... The management should be sacked....


Oca is stuffed.. despite of many holders here believe no CR...but yet fundies are still playing with the fear


Very good post sailormoon.....one of your best posts so far ..

Go OCA.... don't let all the trolls bash your SP

Cheers X-men appreciate the feedback, particularly coming from you.

[X-men]

My posts were a frustration reflection of non holder as a result of falling sp

[SailorRob]

My posts were a frustration reflection of non holder as a result of falling sp


With the exception of semi literate cretinous idiocy, do you have anything to add to this forum X-men?

[X-men]

Yes I did. The insider news...no CR...

[SailorRob]

Yes I did. The insider news...no CR...


Your broker. Do you consider them an insider? If so, why?

[SailorRob]

Yep, so in finance, on economy and interest rates follow people who have a long term track record of predictive ability even if only slight.

Here is a list of people that meet this criteria.

No predictive ability but highly recommend this fellow.

He speaks what cannot be spoken.

https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1651875133647142913?s=20

[X-men]

Can not discuss further....that information is classified

[Entrep]

Can not discuss further....that information is classified

What is the procedure to de-classify? Only upon Presidential order?

[SailorRob]

Interestingly I'm just reading through some of the detail of the Purchase of Alleghany by Berkshire for $11.6 Billion, for that they got 20 billion worth of investment assets and 13 Billion of float. Or roughly twice assets and just over 113% more than purchase price of float. This was an incredible deal.

Buying OCA we get 4 times the assets and 200% more than purchase price of float.

You're putting down 500 million and getting a billion free money.

[X-men]

Need a Jacinda Approval....shame she is not our PM now. Her fxk up, is American problem now

[Balance]

1,000 nurses short in the rest home/aged care system.

Something has to give.

Government busy fiddling with Centralisation strategy while the sector struggles.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/489023/shortage-of-rest-home-beds-putting-pressure-on-health-system-providers-say

[Ggcc]

1,000 nurses short in the rest home/aged care system.

Something has to give.

Government busy fiddling with Centralisation strategy while the sector struggles.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/489023/shortage-of-rest-home-beds-putting-pressure-on-health-system-providers-say

I feel the problem is too great when nurses need just under a 30% increase to be on the same level as Australia.

[Balance]

I feel the problem is too great when nurses need just under a 30% increase to be on the same level as Australia.

A government which can spend billions of $$$ on centralisation with bugger all positive outcomes or results, $1 billion on consultants, $1 billion on emergency housing and $3 billion on the Provincial Growth Fund cannot find the money to increase nurses’ pay?

Question of priority.

[BlackPeter]

A government which can spend billions of $$$ on centralisation with no results, $1 billion on consultants, $1 billion on emergency housing and $3 billion on the Provincial Growth Fund cannot find the money to increase nurses’ pay?

Question of priority.

Don't forget - we spent all this money already to keep professionals out ... our glorious government even employed the anti immigration service under Kris Faafoi to make it as hard as possible for anybody who would like to come to NZ to get here and they even removed medical staff from the country.

Of course, there is now no more money left to pay nurses ...

[Balance]

Don't forget - we spent all this money already to keep professionals out ... our glorious government even employed the anti immigration service under Chris Faafoi to make it as hard as possible for anybody who would like to come to NZ to get here and they even removed medical staff from the country.

Of course, there is now no more money left to pay nurses ...

Depressing.

So very very depressing.

And Faafoi is now a lobbyist trying to influence government policies!

[Habits]

Shortage of rest home beds putting pressure on health system, providers say
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/shortage-of-rest-home-beds-putting-pressure-on-health-system-providers-say/IH6RFZMKLRBIJGCPVTUULQS2SY/

Pressure building

[Greekwatchdog]

Shortage of rest home beds putting pressure on health system, providers say
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/shortage-of-rest-home-beds-putting-pressure-on-health-system-providers-say/IH6RFZMKLRBIJGCPVTUULQS2SY/

Pressure building

Why would you not paste that on the "Retirement Thread"? I mean really...

[Balance]

Why would you not paste that on the "Retirement Thread"? I mean really...

Because OCA has the largest exposure to the aged care market?

[bull....]

Bit of a run this afternoon. If this is based on some insider knowledge, the naysayers and panic merchants who are basing their comments on speculation (even though there may be some small basis for the speculation) have scared buyers who may have purchased at 67 or 68.

We will see.

yes some oscillators have turned positive which may have encouraged some buying pressure and oca does historically have a bit of a run into announcement

[Habits]

Because OCA has the largest exposure to the aged care market?

Spot on Balance

[Sideshow Bob]

Why would you not paste that on the "Retirement Thread"? I mean really...

Because the OCA thread has had over 3.7 million views, but the retirement village thread has only had 300,000....!! :lol::blink::lol:

[Ggcc]

A government which can spend billions of $$$ on centralisation with bugger all positive outcomes or results, $1 billion on consultants, $1 billion on emergency housing and $3 billion on the Provincial Growth Fund cannot find the money to increase nurses’ pay?

Question of priority.
I totally agree that they have wasted a lot over time, but you could say that over any government as none have increased nurses pay, as much as they should have over the years.

[Balance]

I totally agree that they have wasted a lot over time, but you could say that over any government as none have increased nurses pay, as much as they should have over the years.

You could say that except that this clueless and useless government slammed the door shut in the last 3 years on immigrants - no planning ahead in the hermit kingdom of Ardern & Hipkins.

[Ggcc]

You could say that except that this clueless and useless government slammed the door shut in the last 3 years on immigrants - no planning ahead in the hermit kingdom of Ardern & Hipkins.
That we can both agree on. There are multiple things I feel this government did wrong over the last two to three years, but hey now we have had Gabrielle to add something new to the list and forget about what happened before that time. People’s memories are short and we are too forgiving as a nation. Money wasted, no decisions, wrong decisions.

Also isn’t the government still being taken on by lawyers for the nurses sector for back pay that never arrived, just to keep on OCA track?

[winner69]

Because the OCA thread has had over 3.7 million views, but the retirement village thread has only had 300,000....!! :lol::blink::lol:

Jeez …3.75 million views and 15,600 posts in 8 years of and share price lower than what it was when listed

Still a way to beat PEB with its 6.4/million views but then PEB thread been going for nearly 20 years

More chatter ……worse a company performs?

[percy]

Jeez …3.75 million views and 15,600 posts in 8 years of and share price lower than what it was when listed

Still a way to beat PEB with its 6.4/millionth views but then PEB thread been going for nearly 20 years

More chatter ……worse a company performs?

Take care with HLG..?...lol

[winner69]

Take care with HLG..?...lol

……that chatter seems to give positive results though :t_up:

[percy]

……that chatter seems to give positive results though :t_up:

Certainly is doing that..lol.

[SailorRob]

Jeez …3.75 million views and 15,600 posts in 8 years of and share price lower than what it was when listed

Still a way to beat PEB with its 6.4/million views but then PEB thread been going for nearly 20 years

More chatter ……worse a company performs?

Company or share price?

[Balance]

Jeez …3.75 million views and 15,600 posts in 8 years of and share price lower than what it was when listed

Still a way to beat PEB with its 6.4/million views but then PEB thread been going for nearly 20 years

More chatter ……worse a company performs?

All said and done, PEB has had its moments of excitement, exuberance and astounding sp performance. So no problem there at all with posters and punters keeping an ongoing interest with the stock.

OCA is quite a difference kettle of fish - it is one of several in a previously favoured sector so attention is bound to be spread across several RV stocks. OCA attracts more attention however as it is more of a ‘retail’ stock.

[dobby41]

You could say that except that this clueless and useless government slammed the door shut in the last 3 years on immigrants - no planning ahead in the hermit kingdom of Ardern & Hipkins.

Net migration running strong now.
Net +52,000 for the year to Feb this year.

14566

[BlackPeter]

Net migration running strong now.
Net +52,000 for the year to Feb this year.

14566

Well, this gummit still lost us at least two annual cohorts of trained and urgently needed immigrants. These are doctors, nurses and specialists we will miss for many years to come, because thanks to a braindead Labour government they didn't started their professional career here, but they live now with their families somewhere else.

Thanks Kris (and Labour), your stench will hang around for decades to come.

It is really incredible to see, how cruel Labour was in hanging vulnerable people (with valid visas) out to dry, but as well how incredibly stupid they have been to kick out essential workers under their anti immigration minister Kris Faafoi (who always only looked after himself - a real Labour man, just preparing his lobbying business).

[dobby41]

Well, this gummit still lost us at least two annual cohorts of trained and urgently needed immigrants. These are doctors, nurses and specialists we will miss for many years to come, because thanks to a braindead Labour government they didn't started their professional career here, but they live now with their families somewhere else.

Thanks Kris (and Labour), your stench will hang around for decades to come.

It is really incredible to see, how cruel Labour was in hanging vulnerable people (with valid visas) out to dry, but as well how incredibly stupid they have been to kick out essential workers under their anti immigration minister Kris Faafoi (who always only looked after himself - a real Labour man, just preparing his lobbying business).

Currently, 4k more nurses under Te Whatu Ora than 2017, being paid 35% more.
Could do with more.

[BlackPeter]

Currently, 4k more nurses under Te Whatu Ora than 2017, being paid 35% more.
Could do with more.

You have any evidence for this statement?

If we really would have 4k nurses more than in 2017, as you claim, than I am wondering why our health system is breaking apart?

I hear nurses have to work double shifts and are leaving in droves to Ossie. Maybe you should drink less Labour Cool Aid and look instead at reality.

[Balance]

You have any evidence for this statement?

If we really would have 4k nurses more than in 2017, as you claim, than I am wondering why our health system is breaking apart?

I hear nurses have to work double shifts and are leaving in droves to Ossie. Maybe you should drink less Labour Cool Aid and look instead at reality.

And minimum wage under this Clueless government increased 44% while nurses only increased by 35% - shows just how un-valued nurses are by Hipkins and Ardern.

[bull....]

sounds like a few of you are worried about who's going to chaNGE your incontinance pads

[Balance]

sounds like a few of you are worried about who's going to chaNGE your incontinance pads


More like cleaning up your prolific BS.

[justakiwi]

Just another FW troll who has no clue what caregiving actually involves, or how disrespectful comments like that are to the people we care for.


sounds like a few of you are worried about who's going to chaNGE your incontinance pads

[Louloubell]

I can tell you that I'm a nurse and the increase nurses received was around 15% and this was part of the Pay Equity Deal.

[bull....]

Just another FW troll who has no clue what caregiving actually involves, or how disrespectful comments like that are to the people we care for.

you attack me as usual for having grave concerns about who is going to wipe my a.se ... on ignore you go

[Balance]

Interesting close on the market today for OCA?

Trading at 69c pretty much the whole day until the last minute when someone bought everything at 70c and a few at 71c to close the share as 1c up at 71c. :ohmy:

Now why would anyone be so gung ho?

[Balance]

I can tell you that I'm a nurse and the increase nurses received was around 15% and this was part of the Pay Equity Deal.

How dare you contradict the 'One source of Truth'?

Doddy41 is quoting straight out of the Labour Party & Government playbook of Excuses, BS and Spin.

[Baa_Baa]

Interesting close on the market today for OCA?

Trading at 69c pretty much the whole day until the last minute when someone bought everything at 70c and a few at 71c to close the share as 1c up at 71c. :ohmy:

Now why would anyone be so gung ho?

Not sure what you mean by "interesting" or "gung ho". Quite unremarkable volume (average has been very low since the dividend last December), only a modest volume into the close spread over 16 trades, to finish at the same close as yesterday.

What are you seeing that makes it interesting?

[Curly]

I can tell you that I'm a nurse and the increase nurses received was around 15% and this was part of the Pay Equity Deal.
Can you tell me what is happening to all the nurses who lost their jobs because of stupid Government mandates and refused to take the jab. Common sense would say they should be re-employed or is there a rift between jabbed and unjabbed nurses thanks to Ardern & Co.

[Louloubell]

Hi Curly, I prefer not to answer your question as this is the Oceania thread and there is too much chat already on this forum, which is not relevant to Oceania. I made my statement only as the 35% Increase in nurses pay was blatantly wrong.

[bull....]

you know things must be tough when you get a puff piece of news

So it’s disappointing and frustrating for existing residents and retirement village operators to hear the continuing misinformation and misguided claims, which are not backed up by any evidence.
The residents I talk to every day are upset at the suggestion they are subjected to some form of “consumer abuse” and that they have been somehow hoodwinked into moving into a village.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300867000/lets-give-people-living-in-retirement-villages-some-credit-please

[justakiwi]

For once, we are in total agreement. Excellent article.



So it’s disappointing and frustrating for existing residents and retirement village operators to hear the continuing misinformation and misguided claims, which are not backed up by any evidence.
The residents I talk to every day are upset at the suggestion they are subjected to some form of “consumer abuse” and that they have been somehow hoodwinked into moving into a village.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300867000/lets-give-people-living-in-retirement-villages-some-credit-please

[SailorRob]

Imperative that OCA investors study this section very closely.

It is the key to understanding the investment and 99% of people don't.

OCA is FAR better than what is highlighted here.

https://www.youtube.com/live/UKw_NjWtg5w?feature=share&t=4440

[SailorRob]

Imperative that OCA investors study this section very closely.

It is the key to understanding the investment and 99% of people don't.

OCA is FAR better than what is highlighted here.

https://www.youtube.com/live/UKw_NjWtg5w?feature=share&t=4440


Trust me Mr Buffett's head would spin off his shoulders if he saw OCA balance sheet.

He's spent a lifetime building that system to get hold of that 'float' money that he can use for free. But in his world, it's highly regulated and it's fought over so it's very hard to actually get and keep.

OCA has way more of this funding per dollar of our (shareholders) money than Berkshire does.

I hope you heard him say that almost nobody thinks of it like they do.

OCA is growing this free cash at 26% per year too which is WAY faster than Buffett ever has.

So the key is that most of OCA liabilities are actually extremely valuable assets, worth MORE than their equity.

And as interest rates go up this becomes far more valuable.

[ValueNZ]

Do you think there's a risk of OCA making a loss on this float, amplifying losses as leverage does?

[SailorRob]

Do you think there's a risk of OCA making a loss on this float, amplifying losses as leverage does?


That is a very good question, you have to look at the business model and see how it works to answer it properly, given their ability to develop very efficiently and churn the assets I think it's very unlikely over time.

The float is only generated by signing agreements where they really make money at the time of signing, deferred management fees and no pay back until on sold etc.

But it's possible yes.

[Leemsip]

Boring day on the share market. OCA only down a cent or so...... guess we have to wait for some decent carnage in this turd till later on....

[justakiwi]

Do you ever​ have anything constructive or even remotely useful to say? Welcome to my growing ignore list.


Boring day on the share market. OCA only down a cent or so...... guess we have to wait for some decent carnage in this turd till later on....

[dobby41]

Do you ever​ have anything constructive or even remotely useful to say? Welcome to my growing ignore list.

Don't feed the troll.

[justakiwi]

It is becoming harder and harder to do, given that this thread in particular, is now overrun with them :angry:


Don't feed the troll.

[bull....]

Boring day on the share market. OCA only down a cent or so...... guess we have to wait for some decent carnage in this turd till later on....

testing the lows at the moment :scared: bollinger saying 63c on the downside possible

[Balance]

2 weeks away (24 May) from OCA reporting its 2023 results and worthwhile considering the following as the market awaits this crucial results :

1. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/large-aged-care-provider-faces-liquidation

Excerpt : "Staffing shortages and funding shortfalls have made aged care difficult to stack up financially. An aged care provider with nearly 300 beds in six rest homes across the country is in financial difficulty and facing insolvency proceedings later this month."

As OCA is the largest provider of (& most exposed to) care units among the RV stocks, the development above augers badly for OCA. Could mean that the normal negative drag from operating the care units on cashflow and profitability has increased hugely.

2. Anecdotal evidence that RV operators are now accepting reality and discounting their units to meet the depressed residential property market.

This is on the other share discussion site on Ryman but is pertinent to understanding what is happening at a ground level with the RV operators trying to sell newly completed units :


Soo, I am back looking at retirement villages lol

So here's an interesting titbit. Ryman is selling a brand new build townhouse for $710k with a $20k cash back offer. The exact same townhouse that had already been built and lived in briefly but is now available as a resale due to the occupier moving into assisted living, is being sold for $795k. And exiting residents wonder why they cant get their money back quickly. If there is a loss on resale, who should wear it? And does this mean that Ryman has been forced to drop the prices of retirement units to meet the market. Of the 7 townhouses that were released this week, only 2 have been sold. The other five are available to walk ins off the street like my Dad lol.

So a relatively new unit is being offered at $690k vs $795k for a resale unit - 13% discount - with Ryman obviously putting its cashflow interest above that of the estate/resale unit. That's a very bad sign.

Meanwhile, I see that OCA is advertising its St Helier super premium (and super high cost debt funded) units - definitely a sign that the long waiting lists (so loudly trumpeted by the industry in past years) are long gone.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sp hitting a new 67c low (leaving out the March 2020 Covid melt down of all stocks) suggests market is mindful of the above factors at work.

[winner69]

OCA share price generally pretty strong in run up to announcements …a couple of weeks to go

RYM first cab off rank next week … that’ll give an indication of what OCA might print

[Rawz]

2 weeks away (24 May) from OCA reporting its 2023 results and worthwhile considering the following as the market awaits this crucial results :

1. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/large-aged-care-provider-faces-liquidation

Excerpt : "Staffing shortages and funding shortfalls have made aged care difficult to stack up financially. An aged care provider with nearly 300 beds in six rest homes across the country is in financial difficulty and facing insolvency proceedings later this month."

As OCA is the largest provider of (& most exposed to) care units among the RV stocks, the development above augers badly for OCA. Could mean that the normal negative drag from operating the care units on cashflow and profitability has increased hugely.

2. Anecdotal evidence that RV operators are now accepting reality and discounting their units to meet the depressed residential property market.

This is on the other share discussion site on Ryman but is pertinent to understanding what is happening at a ground level with the RV operators trying to sell newly completed units :



So a relatively new unit is being offered at $690k vs $795k for a resale unit - 13% discount - with Ryman obviously putting its cashflow interest above that of the estate/resale unit. That's a very bad sign.

Meanwhile, I see that OCA is advertising its St Helier super premium (and super high cost debt funded) units - definitely a sign that the long waiting lists (so loudly trumpeted by the industry in past years) are long gone.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sp hitting a new 67c low (leaving out the March 2020 Covid melt down of all stocks) suggests market is mindful of the above factors at work.

thanks for the post. a good post.

You still reckon there will be a cap raise?

[Balance]

thanks for the post. a good post.

You still reckon there will be a cap raise?

Yes, I do. For eg. St Helier is 100% debt funded and that’s not a good place to be in with the squeeze on unit prices and increased costs.

As a minimum OCA should can the dividend but with its relatively large retail base, OCA could persist with paying a small token dividend to keep the faith.

[SailorRob]

Yes, I do. For eg. St Helier is 100% debt funded and that’s not a good place to be in with the squeeze on unit prices and increased costs.

As a minimum OCA should can the dividend but with its relatively large retail base, OCA could persist with paying a small token dividend to keep the faith.


If you search for Balances old posts in this thread, he has clearly highlighted the cash flow numbers as he sees them for OCA and given a very well put together mathematical explanation on why a CR will be necessary. His numbers are impeccable and hard to argue with, he's been through the financials with a fine toothed comb and obviously has his head around the numbers. Work of this quality is hard to come by.

Or am I mistaken.

[X-men]

Why u are so confident balance? My insider broker convinces OCA is ok won't do any raising..

[whatsup]

2 weeks away (24 May) from OCA reporting its 2023 results and worthwhile considering the following as the market awaits this crucial results :

1. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/large-aged-care-provider-faces-liquidation

Excerpt : "Staffing shortages and funding shortfalls have made aged care difficult to stack up financially. An aged care provider with nearly 300 beds in six rest homes across the country is in financial difficulty and facing insolvency proceedings later this month."

As OCA is the largest provider of (& most exposed to) care units among the RV stocks, the development above augers badly for OCA. Could mean that the normal negative drag from operating the care units on cashflow and profitability has increased hugely.

2. Anecdotal evidence that RV operators are now accepting reality and discounting their units to meet the depressed residential property market.

This is on the other share discussion site on Ryman but is pertinent to understanding what is happening at a ground level with the RV operators trying to sell newly completed units :



So a relatively new unit is being offered at $690k vs $795k for a resale unit - 13% discount - with Ryman obviously putting its cashflow interest above that of the estate/resale unit. That's a very bad sign.

Meanwhile, I see that OCA is advertising its St Helier super premium (and super high cost debt funded) units - definitely a sign that the long waiting lists (so loudly trumpeted by the industry in past years) are long gone.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sp hitting a new 67c low (leaving out the March 2020 Covid melt down of all stocks) suggests market is mindful of the above factors at work.

Bal, If what you say is correct and I dont doubt it why isnt this " news " reflected in the S P of the aged care shares ?

[Balance]

Why u are so confident balance? My insider broker convinces OCA is ok won't do any raising..

The jaws of the hippo is closing, X-men.

Upper jaw (revenues) is closing down while costs (lower jaw) is going up.

Industry conditions are going to be tough for a while yet so prudent thing for OCA to do is to strengthen its balance sheet to ride out the storm.

The way the sp behaves also point towards the intos keeping clear until a CR is out of the way imo.

[X-men]

Oca locke on low interest rate. Also care services generate cash flow.... oldies always come and die...n rinse n repeat

Arvida sp bounced back after the announcement of debt facility

[Balance]

Bal, If what you say is correct and I dont doubt it why isnt this " news " reflected in the S P of the aged care shares ?

Have a look at the sp of Radius Care.

[Balance]

Oca locke on low interest rate. Also care services generate cash flow.... oldies always come and die...n rinse n repeat

Arvida sp bounced back after the announcement of debt facility

OCA is a buying opportunity then.

[whatsup]

Have a look at the sp of Radius Care.

wow !!!!!!!!!!!!

[bull....]

testing the lows again will sailor be able to support the price much longer

[X-men]

What about this bull

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/nine-house-sales-in-nine-days-10m-dropped-in-auckland-buying-blitz-43547

[nztx]

wow !!!!!!!!!!!!

indeed .. 2 years graph looks even more inspiring .. :)

[X-men]

Something cooking on this stock..smell like a curry

[SailorRob]

testing the lows again will sailor be able to support the price much longer

Praying for 40c not trying to support.

Or better still if other shareholders give me their shares for free.

[nztx]

Something cooking on this stock..smell like a curry


someone's lunch on fire ? :)

[nztx]

testing the lows again will sailor be able to support the price much longer


the oldies might have to borrow to get in the gate soon ..

[Balance]

Looking like stock will be 67c offer soon?

Institutional selling building up at 68c (178,000) while retail buyers at 67c (67,500) are running out of firepower.

Results will be out however on 24 May - 9 days of anxiety for holders?

[justakiwi]

Nope. No anxiety. OCA is a long term hold for me and I have zero doubt that they will serve me well over time. Just wish I had the money to add more at these prices.


9 days for anxiety for holders?

[SailorRob]

Looking like stock will be 67c offer soon?

Institutional selling building up at 68c (178,000) while retail buyers at 67c (67,500) are running out of firepower.

Results will be out however on 24 May - 9 days for anxiety for holders?

What is there to be anxious about?

Remind me when OCA locked in their construction prices and how many 15% increases happened since then, when did they get all their consents?

How much more valuable is their billion dollars of float now than it was during ZIRP.

[Baa_Baa]

Looking like stock will be 67c offer soon?

Institutional selling building up at 68c (178,000) while retail buyers at 67c (67,500) are running out of firepower.

Results will be out however on 24 May - 9 days of anxiety for holders?

Not anxious at all.

How do you know it's insto's on the sell side when the average Ask average is only 16,200 (11 sellers)? Can you see Level 2 Depth?

[SailorRob]

Not anxious at all.

How do you know it's insto's on the sell side when the average Ask average is only 16,200 (11 sellers)? Can you see Level 2 Depth?

Nobody can see the actual depths, all kinds of dark pools and other systems behind the scenes.

Anyone who thinks the bids/offers they can see is the whole picture or anything close needs a reality check.

[tango]

Nobody can see the actual depths, all kinds of dark pools and other systems behind the scenes.

Anyone who thinks the bids/offers they can see is the whole picture or anything close needs a reality check.

Yeah. The brokers drip feed in big orders so as to not spook the market and many large parcels are sold privately.

[bull....]

Nobody can see the actual depths, all kinds of dark pools and other systems behind the scenes.

Anyone who thinks the bids/offers they can see is the whole picture or anything close needs a reality check.

exactly its nonsense someone thinks they knows who's selling ... unless there the broker doing it

[Balance]

Yeah. The brokers drip feed in big orders so as to not spook the market and many large parcels are sold privately.

Exactly right.

[X-men]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/132019923/the-housing-market-downturn-wont-be-as-bad-as-expected

Housing market touched the button?

[Balance]

Exactly the problem highlighted in NZ Herald article this morning that OCA, with its exposure to aged care and new development projects like St Helier, faces :

“The sector still has to prove up the sustainable cash margins it can generate in a competitive sector from a business model largely financed by interest-bearing debt through the development phase (to now) and resident debt through the operating phase.”

Eg. St Helier is 100% funded by debt and is going to struggle to sell at the sort of premium prices imo built into the project given the high land price paid by OCA.

[SailorRob]

Exactly the problem highlighted in NZ Herald article this morning that OCA, with its exposure to aged care and new development projects like St Helier, faces :

“The sector still has to prove up the sustainable cash margins it can generate in a competitive sector from a business model largely financed by interest-bearing debt through the development phase (to now) and resident debt through the operating phase.”

Eg. St Helier is 100% funded by debt and is going to struggle to sell at the sort of premium prices imo built into the project given the high land price paid by OCA.


And they're probably wondering why they ended up as a journalist!

My god, with analytical skills like that that journo will be head hunted by the investment banking industry!

[ronaldson]

The journalist merely quoted Jarden analysts Arie Dekker and Vishal Bhula. The observation regarding St Helier is Balances. That said, I had the impression that the premium occupation offered in that instance had been well received in the marketplace by folk well able to fund the price of admission. It isn't long now before all will be revealed/confirmed.

That same article also indicates the analysts believe Ryman should lift its current deferred management fee back to levels charged by competitors to better monetise its product offering, which is telling.

I noted the Commerce Commission has commenced an investigation into the industry, following the decision by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development in December to initiate a similar review into the sector. Frankly when you look at all the things this Government/the Commission could be doing I would think this is the least appropriate/most unnecessary area to commit resources.

[X-men]

aged care companies in for a much-needed share price boost this reporting season, if retirement sector leaders prove they can generate more cash and keep a lid on debt and costs, Forsyth Barr analysts say.

Investors have sold out of the aged care sector recently, devaluing the listed names by around 25 per cent in the past year, as falling property prices and interest rate rises hurt their balance sheets - but they were due some optimism.

“If they have boring results, that could definitely be enough to be even a small-ish catalyst to push them a bit higher,” senior equity analyst and director Aaron Ibbotson said on Markets with Madison.

[SailorRob]

The journalist merely quoted Jarden analysts Arie Dekker and Vishal Bhula. The observation regarding St Helier is Balances. That said, I had the impression that the premium occupation offered in that instance had been well received in the marketplace by folk well able to fund the price of admission. It isn't long now before all will be revealed/confirmed.

That same article also indicates the analysts believe Ryman should lift its current deferred management fee back to levels charged by competitors to better monetise its product offering, which is telling.

I noted the Commerce Commission has commenced an investigation into the industry, following the decision by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development in December to initiate a similar review into the sector. Frankly when you look at all the things this Government/the Commission could be doing I would think this is the least appropriate/most unnecessary area to commit resources.


Yeah just shows how clueless they are.

Resident Debt... The greatest ASSET in the world...

[SailorRob]

aged care companies in for a much-needed share price boost this reporting season, if retirement sector leaders prove they can generate more cash and keep a lid on debt and costs, Forsyth Barr analysts say.

Investors have sold out of the aged care sector recently, devaluing the listed names by around 25 per cent in the past year, as falling property prices and interest rate rises hurt their balance sheets - but they were due some optimism.

“If they have boring results, that could definitely be enough to be even a small-ish catalyst to push them a bit higher,” senior equity analyst and director Aaron Ibbotson said on Markets with Madison.


Why is a share price boost needed? I don't get that bit.

[Balance]

66c - heading towards 60c at this rate by results announcement date?

Sp is defintely building in a CR imo so those who disagree, OCA is a buy as it will bounce in the event of no CR.

Interesting days ahead with the announcements coming out :

Ryman 19 May
OCA 24 May
ARV 30 May

[SailorRob]

66c - heading towards 60c at this rate by results announcement date?

Sp is defintely building in a CR imo so those who disagree, OCA is a buy as it will bounce in the event of no CR.

Interesting days ahead with the announcements coming out :

Ryman 19 May
OCA 24 May
ARV 30 May


Let's hope and pray that it drops sub 40c and remains there for the next decade.

[Balance]

The journalist merely quoted Jarden analysts Arie Dekker and Vishal Bhula. The observation regarding St Helier is Balances. That said, I had the impression that the premium occupation offered in that instance had been well received in the marketplace by folk well able to fund the price of admission. It isn't long now before all will be revealed/confirmed.

That same article also indicates the analysts believe Ryman should lift its current deferred management fee back to levels charged by competitors to better monetise its product offering, which is telling.

I noted the Commerce Commission has commenced an investigation into the industry, following the decision by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development in December to initiate a similar review into the sector. Frankly when you look at all the things this Government/the Commission could be doing I would think this is the least appropriate/most unnecessary area to commit resources.

Interesting to note the risks highlighted by JLL (Angela Webster) :

Such rapid growth is not without its dangers, which Webster lists as:

• An oversupply in the Auckland region, in the short to medium term

• Negative publicity regarding the ORA (occupation right agreement, also called the deferred management fee). Ryman Healthcare charges 20 per cent and Metlifecare 30 per cent - this is the loss of capital which village unit buyers suffer when they buy into a retirement complex)

• Risks from the general housing market affecting potential village residents' equity holdings.

All coming to pass - pertinent point to note is that the Report was prepared 5 years ago!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/risks-in-rampant-retirement-village-growth-study/4SED735UKTSWITVPPAOJHXEDBQ/

[SailorRob]

Interesting to note the risks highlighted by JLL (Angela Webster) :

Such rapid growth is not without its dangers, which Webster lists as:

• An oversupply in the Auckland region, in the short to medium term

• Negative publicity regarding the ORA (occupation right agreement, also called the deferred management fee). Ryman Healthcare charges 20 per cent and Metlifecare 30 per cent - this is the loss of capital which village unit buyers suffer when they buy into a retirement complex)

• Risks from the general housing market affecting potential village residents' equity holdings.

All coming to pass - pertinent point to note is that the Report was prepared 5 years ago!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/risks-in-rampant-retirement-village-growth-study/4SED735UKTSWITVPPAOJHXEDBQ/


All good and valid points.

[X-men]

Something is cooking and burning...maybe balance hair?

[SailorRob]

The irony is that the sectors share price performance will be the biggest defence against any 'probe'

[SailorRob]

Something is cooking and burning...maybe balance hair?

Have you checked between your ears?

[SailorRob]

Arie Dekker looking might flash in his suit there but can the results of his research department beat the returns provided by a 3 basis point fee market index fund after the costs of running the department.

Answer;

No.

[SailorRob]

And this is key;

'Buyback timeframes had been a systemic issue and changing this could “test” some smaller private operators, the note said'.

Any changes they make are going to destroy the smaller private operators...

It's like DaVita dialysis provider stateside, any reduction in state fees will destroy the hundreds of smaller providers, so therefore they cannot do it.

[bottomfeeder]

The irony is that the sectors share price performance will be the biggest defence against any 'probe'

Old people will complain, because it cost them 10 cents to buy a bottle of coke in 1965, and it costs so more now. Plus the more they complain, the more they get. This "review" is a patronising step by government prior to an election in an attempt to garner votes. Realistically the supply of units and the purchase of a licence to occupy is a commercial reality and very difficult to control. However the supply of care units on a monthly basis is a different kettle of fish. The review will highlight that more DHB subsidies are needed and current levels will need to be increased due to inflationary pressures least of which is the phenomenal increases in wages.

I looked carefully at a licence to occupy situation and its pros and cons. Certainly it is costly. No doubt those moving out will want to share in capital gains and dont want to pay for refurbishment costs just as they wont want to lose in capital losses, or dont want to pay for repainting , roof replacement, exterior refurbishment. Also those moving in want to have a virtually new or refurbished unit to move into. Thd dont want to move into a damaged, tired, or uncared for interior. They want it all ways. It just wont happen. A similar thing happenned when the Nats floated contact and other power companies. Labour said when the get in they will conduct a review of electricity markets. It was a fizzer but they managed to get the SP down to less than the IPO for some time until it was all forgotten. A lot of cronies no doubt made good money buying at all time lows and holding until it was all over.

[SailorRob]

Old people will complain, because it cost them 10 cents to buy a bottle of coke in 1965, and it costs so more now. Plus the more they complain, the more they get. This "review" is a patronising step by government prior to an election in an attempt to garner votes. Realistically the supply of units and the purchase of a licence to occupy is a commercial reality and very difficult to control. However the supply of care units on a monthly basis is a different kettle of fish. The review will highlight that more DHB subsidies are needed and current levels will need to be increased due to inflationary pressures least of which is the phenomenal increases in wages.

I looked carefully at a licence to occupy situation and its pros and cons. Certainly it is costly. No doubt those moving out will want to share in capital gains and dont want to pay for refurbishment costs just as they wont want to lose in capital losses, or dont want to pay for repainting , roof replacement, exterior refurbishment. Also those moving in want to have a virtually new or refurbished unit to move into. Thd dont want to move into a damaged, tired, or uncared for interior. They want it all ways. It just wont happen. A similar thing happenned when the Nats floated contact and other power companies. Labour said when the get in they will conduct a review of electricity markets. It was a fizzer but they managed to get the SP down to less than the IPO for some time until it was all forgotten. A lot of cronies no doubt made good money buying at all time lows and holding until it was all over.


Great post, thanks.

[X-men]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new-migrant-numbers-up-greatly-despite-net-loss-of-nz-citizens/NBWGS2RZUJFW7MHLDQTPBDZFWE/

I rekon housing market touched the button. Will go up slowly from now

[nztx]

Something is cooking and burning...maybe balance hair?


He hasn't complained or noticed yet :)

[SailorRob]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new-migrant-numbers-up-greatly-despite-net-loss-of-nz-citizens/NBWGS2RZUJFW7MHLDQTPBDZFWE/

I rekon housing market touched the button. Will go up slowly from now

Thanks for your insight X-men.

[nztx]

The irony is that the sectors share price performance will be the biggest defence against any 'probe'


Depends how desperate the envy Increw get, or if their skates hit thin ice first, which is possible ..

[Habits]

I wonder if there will be funds in the budget for care beds / care suites

[justakiwi]

I seriously doubt Labour has given any thought whatsoever, to addressing the current funding situation, or any other aspect of the aged care crisis we are currently in. I have zero expectation of anything in the budget.

But before the usual players decide to make that about Labour, don’t waste your breath. I don’t for one minute believe this will be on National’s radar either. Aged care is simply not a priority for either party. They have both dumped it in the “too hard” basket and I have zero confidence in either of them to address it.

I hope I am wrong but I am not holding my breath.


I wonder if there will be funds in the budget for care beds / care suites

[Greekwatchdog]

I don't see there being any change, however I will be interested to see how much the Covid costs have depreciated

[Maverick]

I wonder if there will be funds in the budget for care beds / care suites
Habits…”careful what you wish for”. ..
It all comes down to what hat you wear. Are you an investor, a participant or involved at the coal face?
For me , obviously a huge investor but I'm also a participant ( as a spoiled child watching my inheritance fall). My mum is in a RYM dementia unit through whom I've learnt such MASSIVE respect for the amazing ladies( sorry lads, that's how it is) that dedicate themselves to her care. So 2 very opposing hats.

My first hat ( but not the most important) … Investor;
The current underfunding that has been happening for about 4 years now is playing progressively into OCAs hands. Rest homes are closing and absolutely no new bed construction.
My -NZ 3rd most-affordable town - Whanganui, just lost another older rest home that's been running for decades.
If you are mortgage free, sick and need assistance now, what are you going to do? I tell ya..around here , you pay the price asked by whoever is still operating.
OCA average caresuite sells for $310k ( that's both new and resales-no difference). Think about that for a moment, some will be less but others much more.
Taupo , for example, a pretty benign place real estate wise, is selling theirs for over $300k and there's a waiting list .. Auckland now has some for sale for $500k!
So the dearth of options means pretty well anyone mortgage free has a real easy choice to make. Care suite or your place.
Commercially , this is shooting fish in a barrel. That's an awful term to use but remember we are just talking purely commercial.

Next point is that Government funding is asset tested.Here's something some will not be aware of. If you choose to go into a care suite you will almost certainly NOT qualify for any Govt assistance. Your ORA is considered an asset by DHB. Fun fact…Helier aims to run completely outside of any govt framework.
So regardless of potential budget Govt help increases this week, if you buy a OCA caresuite, you will still most likely be paying the full unsubsidized cost of everything until you're down to your last $200k ish.
Heads up Habits-may as well buy that Mustang or Surtees now…. fishing emoji here.

Continued Govt underfunding will cause even more traditional care bed home closures. Remember OCA have 1000 care suits with 700 to come. Thats a sh*t load , let me calibrate that, ARV - its closest cousin-has only 100 to date.

Now the homework part- OCA gets 15% DMF for the first year. 10% yr 2 then 5% the 3rd year. ( tenure of a care suite is 3 years) If you do the math on an industry standard $600-800k villa that the tenure is 8 years at 30% then you easily work out caresuites are nothing to be sneezed at. ( if you have the scale,infrastructure and human care component to make it all work)

Last 1HY23 the headline was ….”Care suites premiumization delivering results.”
This is one of the 3 drivers to look out for in next week's result. Brent was right to identify it. It's something that is material and increasing in a slow juggernaut kind of way. I'm expecting about care-$2-3 m increase in 2hy23. This will underscore an increasing bulletproof cash flow. That's almost regardless of government budgets and HPI falls.

I've always said OCAs 10 year transformation / profits is about the apartments- that hasn't altered. The caresuite strength is just a really nice booster - the real show is the apartments that are being built and being sold down…again speaking purely as an investor.

As a son of a mum in RYM dementia care;
WOW,.. I was there again today with mum after 6 months of this , and seeing the real , human , genuine, caring interaction with the nurses, carers, whatever their rank…just WOW!
If you don't have a parent with dementia then you wont understand. RYM and their team are doing a stunning job. These women genuinely care for mum and are doing a job that I am not capable of. I can show up with a mothers day thingy…oooohh, ahh , but they are there every hour until I choose to call in next.

Jusk A Kiwi…you guys are legends.

[Beau]

Habits…”careful what you wish for”. ..
It all comes down to what hat you wear. Are you an investor, a participant or involved at the coal face?
For me , obviously a huge investor but I'm also a participant ( as a spoiled child watching my inheritance fall). My mum is in a RYM dementia unit through whom I've learnt such MASSIVE respect for the amazing ladies( sorry lads, that's how it is) that dedicate themselves to her care. So 2 very opposing hats.

My first hat ( but not the most important) … Investor;
The current underfunding that has been happening for about 4 years now is playing progressively into OCAs hands. Rest homes are closing and absolutely no new bed construction.
My -NZ 3rd most-affordable town - Whanganui, just lost another older rest home that's been running for decades.
If you are mortgage free, sick and need assistance now, what are you going to do? I tell ya..around here , you pay the price asked by whoever is still operating.
OCA average caresuite sells for $310k ( that's both new and resales-no difference). Think about that for a moment, some will be less but others much more.
Taupo , for example, a pretty benign place real estate wise, is selling theirs for over $300k and there's a waiting list .. Auckland now has some for sale for $500k!
So the dearth of options means pretty well anyone mortgage free has a real easy choice to make. Care suite or your place.
Commercially , this is shooting fish in a barrel. That's an awful term to use but remember we are just talking purely commercial.

Next point is that Government funding is asset tested.Here's something some will not be aware of. If you choose to go into a care suite you will almost certainly NOT qualify for any Govt assistance. Your ORA is considered an asset by DHB. Fun fact…Helier aims to run completely outside of any govt framework.
So regardless of potential budget Govt help increases this week, if you buy a OCA caresuite, you will still most likely be paying the full unsubsidized cost of everything until you're down to your last $200k ish.
Heads up Habits-may as well buy that Mustang or Surtees now…. fishing emoji here.

Continued Govt underfunding will cause even more traditional care bed home closures. Remember OCA have 1000 care suits with 700 to come. Thats a sh*t load , let me calibrate that, ARV - its closest cousin-has only 100 to date.

Now the homework part- OCA gets 15% DMF for the first year. 10% yr 2 then 5% the 3rd year. ( tenure of a care suite is 3 years) If you do the math on an industry standard $600-800k villa that the tenure is 8 years at 30% then you easily work out caresuites are nothing to be sneezed at. ( if you have the scale,infrastructure and human care component to make it all work)

Last 1HY23 the headline was ….”Care suites premiumization delivering results.”
This is one of the 3 drivers to look out for in next week's result. Brent was right to identify it. It's something that is material and increasing in a slow juggernaut kind of way. I'm expecting about care-$2-3 m increase in 2hy23. This will underscore an increasing bulletproof cash flow. That's almost regardless of government budgets and HPI falls.

I've always said OCAs 10 year transformation / profits is about the apartments- that hasn't altered. The caresuite strength is just a really nice booster - the real show is the apartments that are being built and being sold down…again speaking purely as an investor.

As a son of a mum in RYM dementia care;
WOW,.. I was there again today with mum after 6 months of this , and seeing the real , human , genuine, caring interaction with the nurses, carers, whatever their rank…just WOW!
If you don't have a parent with dementia then you wont understand. RYM and their team are doing a stunning job. These women genuinely care for mum and are doing a job that I am not capable of. I can show up with a mothers day thingy…oooohh, ahh , but they are there every hour until I choose to call in next.

Jusk A Kiwi…you guys are legends.


Thanks Mav. Appreciate what you are saying My Mums in Rymans as well been from Townhouse to Resthome then Demntia Care now Hospital Care.Looked after every step of the way with great care and compassion not thinking you will need all those stages along the way but one never knows taken a load off family and much appreciated.The system if needed works well if on board with Resthome. You’re right people like Just A Kiwi are legends.

[clip]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/132025911/elderly-man-dies-after-fight-at-auckland-rest-home?cid=app-android

Wonder if this will have any impact on OCA

[SailorRob]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/132025911/elderly-man-dies-after-fight-at-auckland-rest-home?cid=app-android

Wonder if this will have any impact on OCA

How so Clip. State what your thesis here is.

[clip]

How so Clip. State what your thesis here is.


This article is about an OCA care home where patients where supposed to be supervised at all times, they weren't, resulting in two residents fighting, one of which was killed by being punched, falling over and hitting his head on the ground.

Sometimes events like these can trigger other articles and further reputational damage.

[justakiwi]

I don't know the details of this incident obviously - none of us do. But what I can tell you is this. It doesn't matter which rest home/care suite/dementia unit/hospital wing someone is in, the reality is that no provider can ever guarantee that incidents will not happen. We, as caregivers do our very best to keep a close eye on our residents, and our focus is always on keeping them safe. But unless you have staff ratios that allow one-to-one supervision, we cannot possibly supervise every resident 24/7. It literally cannot be done. This is not an OCA "thing" - it is the reality of aging and living with other people. When you add dementia into the mix, it simply increases the chance of an event - a fall, someone wandering off site (not everyone with dementia is in a secure unit), wandering into places they are not supposed to be such as other resident's rooms etc, or even an altercation/fight like this one.

The fact that (according to the article) the OCA policy is for one staff member to always be in the lounge, is impressive. There is no way we could ever meet that requirement in the rest home I worked in, nor was it possible in the secure dementia wing my Mum used to go to for respite. An emergency call bell may alarm, which in most cases means all staff have to respond initially, and if they are not required they can return to what they were doing. There are so many possible scenarios that could mean a lounge is unattended for a few minutes. In actual fact, it makes very little difference. That particular incident could have occurred while a staff member was in attendance. We have training on how to de-escalate these kinds of situations, especially with people with dementia, but I can tell you, it is damned difficult to step into an altercation, and it is also very scary. We had no male staff. Places like OCA most likely do, but smaller homes are generally staffed solely by women.

I am not making excuses for what happened here, and it may be that the staff member concerned, made an error of judgment. But she also may not have. The fact that she no longer works there means nothing - if that happened on my watch, I would not come back to work either. We do not know. But of course the media had to jump on it, sensationalise it as always, without any consideration for the realities of aged care. As long as the media focuses on the negative, and rarely bothers to report on the "good news" stories, the general public will always have a misguided and mis-informed opinion of aged care providers.

The fact that I am no longer working as a caregiver, but here I am still posting about aged care (and not from an investor point of view) shows just how passionate most caregivers are about the work they do. The expectation that we can prevent every ​incident, and if we don't, it is our fault, is completely unrealistic.



This article is about an OCA care home where patients where supposed to be supervised at all times, they weren't, resulting in two residents fighting, one of which was killed by being punched, falling over and hitting his head on the ground.

Sometimes events like these can trigger other articles and further reputational damage.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/132025911/elderly-man-dies-after-fight-at-auckland-rest-home?cid=app-android

Wonder if this will have any impact on OCA

[SailorRob]

This article is about an OCA care home where patients where supposed to be supervised at all times, they weren't, resulting in two residents fighting, one of which was killed by being punched, falling over and hitting his head on the ground.

Sometimes events like these can trigger other articles and further reputational damage.

OK cheers, good observation and valid points for sure.

Certainly not going to have any positive impact!

[Habits]

Beautiful response to my question Mav
Can I also ask: you said "$600-800k villa that the tenure is 8 years". Am just wondering if 8 years is the average tenure of residents. If so, then a 30% DMF on 800k purchase price translates to under $600pw over the full 8 years. In that case, the RVs definitely need capital gain for the model to be successful and make feasible ROI

[Maverick]

Beautiful response to my question Mav
Can I also ask: you said "$600-800k villa that the tenure is 8 years". Am just wondering if 8 years is the average tenure of residents. If so, then a 30% DMF on 800k purchase price translates to under $600pw over the full 8 years. In that case, the RVs definitely need capital gain for the model to be successful and make feasible ROI
This could open up a bottomless rabbit hole but put simply ...

The ROI is acceptable without capital gains due to several reasons.
Firstly , OCA has 2 other income steams : new build margins of around 30% per delivery and care profit - which is where having lots of care suites is vital.
Secondly , as Sailor Rob has strongly and correctly highlighted, is the magic of the ORA. The 30% DMF is profit on the residents capital, not OCA`s.

The ORA means RVs make money on other peoples money so a 4% return on some one else's $800k suddenly looks good.

My own spreadsheet assumptions looking 8 years ahead are 0% capital gain for the next 2 years then 2% after that. The bottom line results are very acceptable.

Hope that helps Habits.

[SailorRob]

Habits…”careful what you wish for”. ..
It all comes down to what hat you wear. Are you an investor, a participant or involved at the coal face?
For me , obviously a huge investor but I'm also a participant ( as a spoiled child watching my inheritance fall). My mum is in a RYM dementia unit through whom I've learnt such MASSIVE respect for the amazing ladies( sorry lads, that's how it is) that dedicate themselves to her care. So 2 very opposing hats.

My first hat ( but not the most important) … Investor;
The current underfunding that has been happening for about 4 years now is playing progressively into OCAs hands. Rest homes are closing and absolutely no new bed construction.
My -NZ 3rd most-affordable town - Whanganui, just lost another older rest home that's been running for decades.
If you are mortgage free, sick and need assistance now, what are you going to do? I tell ya..around here , you pay the price asked by whoever is still operating.
OCA average caresuite sells for $310k ( that's both new and resales-no difference). Think about that for a moment, some will be less but others much more.
Taupo , for example, a pretty benign place real estate wise, is selling theirs for over $300k and there's a waiting list .. Auckland now has some for sale for $500k!
So the dearth of options means pretty well anyone mortgage free has a real easy choice to make. Care suite or your place.
Commercially , this is shooting fish in a barrel. That's an awful term to use but remember we are just talking purely commercial.

Next point is that Government funding is asset tested.Here's something some will not be aware of. If you choose to go into a care suite you will almost certainly NOT qualify for any Govt assistance. Your ORA is considered an asset by DHB. Fun fact…Helier aims to run completely outside of any govt framework.
So regardless of potential budget Govt help increases this week, if you buy a OCA caresuite, you will still most likely be paying the full unsubsidized cost of everything until you're down to your last $200k ish.
Heads up Habits-may as well buy that Mustang or Surtees now…. fishing emoji here.

Continued Govt underfunding will cause even more traditional care bed home closures. Remember OCA have 1000 care suits with 700 to come. Thats a sh*t load , let me calibrate that, ARV - its closest cousin-has only 100 to date.

Now the homework part- OCA gets 15% DMF for the first year. 10% yr 2 then 5% the 3rd year. ( tenure of a care suite is 3 years) If you do the math on an industry standard $600-800k villa that the tenure is 8 years at 30% then you easily work out caresuites are nothing to be sneezed at. ( if you have the scale,infrastructure and human care component to make it all work)

Last 1HY23 the headline was ….”Care suites premiumization delivering results.”
This is one of the 3 drivers to look out for in next week's result. Brent was right to identify it. It's something that is material and increasing in a slow juggernaut kind of way. I'm expecting about care-$2-3 m increase in 2hy23. This will underscore an increasing bulletproof cash flow. That's almost regardless of government budgets and HPI falls.

I've always said OCAs 10 year transformation / profits is about the apartments- that hasn't altered. The caresuite strength is just a really nice booster - the real show is the apartments that are being built and being sold down…again speaking purely as an investor.

As a son of a mum in RYM dementia care;
WOW,.. I was there again today with mum after 6 months of this , and seeing the real , human , genuine, caring interaction with the nurses, carers, whatever their rank…just WOW!
If you don't have a parent with dementia then you wont understand. RYM and their team are doing a stunning job. These women genuinely care for mum and are doing a job that I am not capable of. I can show up with a mothers day thingy…oooohh, ahh , but they are there every hour until I choose to call in next.

Jusk A Kiwi…you guys are legends.




Great post, couple of comments;

One on the investor vs customer being two 'very opposing hats', are they not the exact same hat? That the value being created is of equal benefit to both, as well as society as a whole. That's what I'd like to think and what I see. Without the economic benefits to shareholders, the service and continued buildout can't be provided.

Two, the comment about 'new and resales-no difference' A very interesting point that I was recently also discussing and worth thinking through across the whole range of offerings.

Three, the level of information and analysis in this post and your sequel... Compared to most others who post, share price going down, capital raise on the way and cash flow problems (despite cash flow from operations pouring in).

As Warren says - The difference between real investing and the crap most here do... Is whether you care if the stock market is open tomorrow or not, if you're making a good investment in a company it should not bother you if they close down the stock market for 5 years. All the ticker tells me is the price, prices don't tell me anything about a business. Business figures themselves tell me something about a business but the price of the stock doesn't tell me anything about a business.

Are the people here really smarter than he is and they can deduce all they need to know from the price?

[Bjauck]

OK cheers, good observation and valid points for sure.

Certainly not going to have any positive impact!
A dreadful situation. My family member was in a good care home but was knocked out of their wheelchair by another resident storming into the corridor from his room. The result was a hip fracture and cuts. Carers saw it happening but could not intervene in time. They were so upset over it. Nothing and nowhere is perfect.

[ronaldson]

Great post by justakiwi (#15719) and Maverick above. Need to keep perspective how it really is at the coalface in this industry and not be distracted by media reporting of the outcome of an unfortunate incident that actually happened in 2019.

OCA, ARV and SUM rallying on-market today. RYM results due Friday, OCA on 24 May and ARV on 30 May. These, and the budget announcement, will help everyone clarify views on the sector. So let's wait and see.

[bull....]

Great post by justakiwi (#15719) and Maverick above. Need to keep perspective how it really is at the coalface in this industry and not be distracted by media reporting of the outcome of an unfortunate incident that actually happened in 2019.

OCA, ARV and SUM rallying on-market today. RYM results due Friday, OCA on 24 May and ARV on 30 May. These, and the budget announcement, will help everyone clarify views on the sector. So let's wait and see.

buying interest in RV stocks today .... must be ahead of results. OCA generally rallies before results on past occasions

[bull....]

run up to announcement on ? depth on the sell has reversed considerably since yesterday

oscillators on short term readings have turned positive

[RTM]

run up to announcement on ? depth on the sell has reversed considerably since yesterday

oscillators on short term readings have turned positive

Hey Sailor Boy...hope you keeping an eye on the oscillators !

[SailorRob]

Hey Sailor Boy...hope you keeping an eye on the oscillators !

Waiting for the fibonacci double tripple death cross retractable then I'll get on the line to bolger, I mean bollinger.

If it's a full moon criss waxing gibbon, then it's time to buy.

Or is it sell, can't remember.

[SailorRob]

Moon phases are way underestimated by investors.

[bull....]

depends which house the moon sits in .... but the current positioning of the moon to uranus highlights potential for a surprise in the budget tomorrow

[SailorRob]

depends which house the moon sits in .... but the current positioning of the moon to uranus highlights potential for a surprise in the budget tomorrow

I prefer not thinking about the crossing of Grant Robertson and uranus!

But all this reminds me of Buffett pulling up to Las Vegas in the 50's on his honeymoon and looking around at the mathematically nonsensical behaviour and telling his wife they would get rich without a doubt.

[bull....]

yep robinson might have decided he didnt want to have to wipe his own ar.e when he gets to old ... something seems to be brewing all aged care stocks on the lift last 2 days

[Curly]

Market beginning to click on that OCA over sold. RV sentiment changing or is there something in the budget?

[bull....]

just hit 79c must be cause there the biggest care bed outfit ? if robinson takes money from the consultants to spend on more care bed funding how much is that worth to oca ?

[justakiwi]

If this is people expecting anything major in the budget, I think they will be disappointed. More likely just investors who believe in the company, expecting a decent result.

[SailorRob]

I'm confused, can someone help me. Is 66c the right price or is it 79c? A 20% or over 100m swing in a couple of days...

What does this mean for Balances CR?

What about all the theories with the price tanking, what does the aggressive bounce up mean?

[Rawz]

I'm confused, can someone help me. Is 66c the right price or is it 79c? A 20% or over 100m swing in a couple of days...

What does this mean for Balances CR?

What about all the theories with the price tanking, what does the aggressive bounce up mean?

This is the big instos behind the CR pushing the price up so when it goes at 67 cents it doesnt seem too bad. Just like with RYM. Classic insto trick

Or maybe something else

[SailorRob]

This is the big instos behind the CR pushing the price up so when it goes at 67 cents it doesnt seem too bad. Just like with RYM. Classic insto trick

Or maybe something else

Got it, share price up CR, DOWN, also CR.

[Rawz]

Got it, share price up CR, DOWN, also CR.

Lol yep basically

[justakiwi]

......:laugh:......


Got it, share price up CR, DOWN, also CR.

[Louloubell]

What about the line of thinking that Oceania is being re-rated to, a bit more, of it's true value while at the same time some of the big players are still off-loading? That theory does not involve a capital raising.

[bull....]

or that fbu is going to take them over

[ValueNZ]

This is the big instos behind the CR pushing the price up so when it goes at 67 cents it doesnt seem too bad. Just like with RYM. Classic insto trick

Or maybe something else
How do you see who is placing the orders?

[Curly]

To me, recent movement displays how this stock is going to take off once it comes in favour again. Hope you all stocked up at .72 and under. Hold all tickets and enjoy the ride.

[bull....]

big buyer on the close .... sailor ?

[mshierlaw]

Good upward moves with reasonable volume today.
Still has not broken the downtrend.
I look forward to the announcement in 7 days
I have a good feeling about this & yes I topped up last week

[winner69]

Good upward moves with reasonable volume today.
Still has not broken the downtrend.
I look forward to the announcement in 7 days
I have a good feeling about this & yes I topped up last week

The numbers in the result won’t matter that much next week ….it’ll be all about the narrative

Our good rave from Brent and share price will head to $1 plus

[Sideshow Bob]

The numbers in the result won’t matter that much next week ….it’ll be all about the narrative

Our good rave from Brent and share price will head to $1.50 plus

There you go Winner - just fixed it for you!!

[bull....]

big volumes ( a days worth in the first hr ) going thru today