OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

technically a break below 75c looks very bad :scared: lower bollinger says a fall to 70c would be possible on such a breakdown
when technicals match fundamental outlook that is one powerful signal

looks like we are on target still , sailor boy will be very happy lol

[nztx]

looks like we are on target still , sailor boy will be very happy lol


Did someone mention sunken gold somewhere ? :)

[SailorRob]

technically a break below 75c looks very bad :scared: lower bollinger says a fall to 70c would be possible on such a breakdown
when technicals match fundamental outlook that is one powerful signal

Who in the hell is lower bollinger.

Parents must be hard cases coming up with a name like that.

[SailorRob]

looks like we are on target still , sailor boy will be very happy lol

Yep, every time I spend x amount of cash I get more and more shares.

Most people here seem to think that's a tragedy but it makes me happy.

[SailorRob]

How is that russian bank you invested in going? (genuine question)


https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-sberbank-recommends-record-dividend-payout-ceo-2023-03-17/

[Blue Skies]

Yep, every time I spend x amount of cash I get more and more shares.

Most people here seem to think that's a tragedy but it makes me happy.


Well that only works if you can ignore the ones you already hold!

Not afraid to admit am taking a bit of a hammering on these.
Looks like these will be sitting in the bottom drawer for a while yet.
Long term though OCA looks pretty secure to me.

[Sideshow Bob]

Well that only works if you can ignore the ones you already hold!

Not afraid to admit am taking a bit of a hammering on these.
Looks like these will be sitting in the bottom drawer for a while yet.
Long term though OCA looks pretty secure to me.

I've still got my head above water, but needing to swim flat out......!! :scared:

The lockdown dip of 2020 was a bit of a gift.....surely we can't see a repeat??

[SailorRob]

Well that only works if you can ignore the ones you already hold!

Not afraid to admit am taking a bit of a hammering on these.
Looks like these will be sitting in the bottom drawer for a while yet.
Long term though OCA looks pretty secure to me.


Not really, the ones I bought originally had a net present value that I was more than happy with and the ones I have bought subsequently have a a similar net present value but I'm paying much less for them.

You're not taking any hammering at all, if someone yells out to you on the street oi you fat prick, but you're anorexic then you're not going to feel abused are you.

Forget about obsessing over the current market quote and focus on the amount of earnings that your business will generate over the next 10 years and how the assets that you are buying the equity portion of, are funded.

Value the business yourself.

After purchasing any shares, what you should pray for is that they collapse in price on the market while the business either improves or remains the same.

[davflaws]

Fifty years ago I was a serious spearfisherman. For pelagics like kingfish, I would start on the surface pretty close to neutrally buoyant with my weights balancing the buoyancy of my wetsuit. I would dive down to 15m or so and my wetsuit would compress so I was overweight and had to fin a bit to stay level and avoid sinking further underwater. I often looked up at the surface and wondered whether I had overestimated my breathholding capacity. It was important to remind myself that I needed to stay relaxed, because to panic would make things worse. If the worst came to the worst, I knew I could always ditch my weights and become positively buoyant to speed my way back to the surface.

In terms of OCA, I am a long way overweight, and a very long way underwater. Fortunately I have enough in reserve so I don't have to ditch my weightbelt and go for the surface just yet!

[SailorRob]

Fifty years ago I was a serious spearfisherman. For pelagics like kingfish, I would start on the surface pretty close to neutrally buoyant with my weights balancing the buoyancy of my wetsuit. I would dive down to 15m or so and my wetsuit would compress so I was overweight and had to fin a bit to stay level and avoid sinking further underwater. I often looked up at the surface and wondered whether I had overestimated my breathholding capacity. It was important to remind myself that I needed to stay relaxed, because to panic would make things worse. If the worst came to the worst, I knew I could always ditch my weights and become positively buoyant to speed my way back to the surface.

In terms of OCA, I am a long way overweight, and a very long way underwater. Fortunately I have enough in reserve so I don't have to ditch my weightbelt and go for the surface just yet!

Interesting analogy.

So if the board of directors presented the company in it's present form to you as the single owner and even gave up their own shares, instead of celebrating with your family, you would regale them with a tale of being at the bottom of the Mariners trench?


Are UBS shareholders currently crying or is it the former Credit Suisse equity and bondholders?

[ValueNZ]

Not really, the ones I bought originally had a net present value that I was more than happy with and the ones I have bought subsequently have a a similar net present value but I'm paying much less for them.

You're not taking any hammering at all, if someone yells out to you on the street oi you fat prick, but you're anorexic then you're not going to feel abused are you.

Forget about obsessing over the current market quote and focus on the amount of earnings that your business will generate over the next 10 years and how the assets that you are buying the equity portion of, are funded.

Value the business yourself.

After purchasing any shares, what you should pray for is that they collapse in price on the market while the business either improves or remains the same.
Wouldn't you prefer your shares to increase in price, above what you believe their intrinsic value is, so that you can sell them and move onto the next undervalued opportunity?

[bull....]

arv trying to catch up to oca , oca better get a move on.

anyway i think the company should tell us if they use kumera or not ?

[SailorRob]

Wouldn't you prefer your shares to increase in price, above what you believe their intrinsic value is, so that you can sell them and move onto the next undervalued opportunity?


Often, this happens.

Ultimately, over the long term, and because if nothing else of rising dividends and improving and obvious fundamentals, the market will eventually revalue to intrinsic or above.


What you suggest relies on being able to find another opportunity and be as familiar with it, and that the rise to above intrinsic value happens fast enough that you get your required return on capital and then do this again and again, which is entirely possible but very difficult.

You will make a lot more money if a very high quality business goes on sale and remains so for a while and you reinvest dividends and purchase more as you can, than having a one off revaluation.

[ValueNZ]

Often, this happens.

Ultimately, over the long term, and because if nothing else of rising dividends and improving and obvious fundamentals, the market will eventually revalue to intrinsic or above.


What you suggest relies on being able to find another opportunity and be as familiar with it, and that the rise to above intrinsic value happens fast enough that you get your required return on capital and then do this again and again, which is entirely possible but very difficult.

You will make a lot more money if a very high quality business goes on sale and remains so for a while and you reinvest dividends and purchase more as you can, than having a one off revaluation.
Certainly an interesting perspective. Perhaps I'll attempt to adapt the same mindset as you, and see falling asset prices as more of an opportunity for further future gain rather than unrealised losses.

[Baa_Baa]

[...] You will make a lot more money if a very high quality business goes on sale and remains so for a while and you reinvest dividends and purchase more as you can, than having a one off revaluation.

Just saying, you're not talking to yourself, there are people here and presumably some lurkers and watchers, who 'get it' about investing long term. Acquiring/accumulating on-market and/or via dividends/DRP, when the market decides to underprice the equity and the company spews out profits as additional equity or money to shareholders every 3-6-12 months by distributing profits. The long terms maths on this is indisputable, assuming the company remains profitable.

This imho and observation though, is a very mature investment approach and can take many years for share market participants to get a grip of, especially mentally when their capital value is being destroyed on paper. Those that do though, really don't concern themselves too much about their current capital portfolio valuation as they have no intention to sell, realising either capital profits or losses. They didn't buy to sell, they bought to lock-in a long term income and/or equity accumulation. They accumulate more by buying or reinvesting dividends.

Thing is though, there are probably a lot more people who are really only focused on the share price and especially so when it goes against their buy-in price, i.e. they're under their buy-price and trying to decide whether to lock in capital losses and move elsewhere. The share price watchers who don't or didn't realise they were really just capital traders, and didn't react early will be hurting. So many though don't have any tools to help with when to exit a capital trade (or get in). It's all gut feel, emotional, subject to whim. All they will see is the red number on their portfolio and counting how much the will lose if they sell. Professional traders are a lot more nimble and move early, getting in, or out.

This place is 'Sharetrader' and its legacy goes back two decades, the debate between hard core investors, casual investors, momentum traders, short term and day traders, noobs and experienced never stops.

The thing I like the most about your posts is that you are very patient about explaining the maths of long term investing in sound prosperous and long term companies. Though sometimes a bit rude and dismissive towards people who don't get it, regardless of their reasons, for example, they want the trade, the quick buck, the thrill of a win.

OCA is and has been for me a long term investment, the repeated extreme capital volatility which I never expected over the past few years has been a windfall enabling me to accumulate a much larger position on-market and via DRP than originally intended based on the original capital I had to invest. Personally I have no intention to sell OCA.

I think people should ponder your expose' of the power of free money that the RV's build up (debt to ORA's) and how that is leveraged. It's quite unlike most industries and core to understanding long term investing in RV's.

[SailorRob]

Certainly an interesting perspective. Perhaps I'll attempt to adapt the same mindset as you, and see falling asset prices as more of an opportunity for further future gain rather than unrealised losses.


What you are saying also holds merit but what will really highlight the perspective I'm advocating is running some math on the respective numbers. I put together a series of scenarios where I showed the outcomes of reinvesting OCA dividends at different prices, somewhere back in this thread. I'll try dig it out.

Also what will give some insight is looking at how Buffett thought about his original Washington Post purchase and the many times he goes on about wanting a stock to fall after buying.

Another thought exercise is to take the S&P500 so that you're not talking about a single business and there is no risk of total loss... the lower the market goes then the higher your future return will then be, if this was the only investment you could make then if you are still in your saving and investing phase then you'd want lower prices.

The higher the market goes all it means is that you're dragging future returns into the present as the market cannot grow forever at a higher rate than the return on capital it produces.

Obviously in some cases falling asset prices are not going to be an opportunity for future gain and this can be a real killer as well.


'One quick example: The Washington Post Company in 1973 wasselling for $80 million in the market. At the time, that day, youcould have sold the assets to any one of ten buyers for not less than$400 million, probably appreciably more. The company owned thePost, Newsweek, plus several television stations in major markets.Those same properties are worth $2 billion now, so the person whowould have paid $400 million would not have been crazy.

Now, if the stock had declined even further to a price that madethe valuation $40 million instead of $80 million, its beta wouldhave been greater. And to people who think beta measures risk, thecheaper price would have made it look riskier. This is truly Alice inWonderland. I have never been able to figure out why it’s riskier tobuy $400 million worth of properties for $40 million than $80 million. And, as a matter of fact, if you buy a group of such securitiesand you know anything at all about business valuation, there isessentially no risk in buying $400 million for $80 million, particularly if you do it by buying ten $40 million piles for $8 million each.Since you don’t have your hands on the $400 million, you want tobe sure you are in with honest and reasonably competent people,but that’s not a difficult job'

[SailorRob]

Just saying, you're not talking to yourself, there are people here and presumably some lurkers and watchers, who 'get it' about investing long term. Acquiring/accumulating on-market and/or via dividends/DRP, when the market decides to underprice the equity and the company spews out profits as additional equity or money to shareholders every 3-6-12 months by distributing profits. The long terms maths on this is indisputable, assuming the company remains profitable.

This imho and observation though, is a very mature investment approach and can take many years for share market participants to get a grip of, especially mentally when their capital value is being destroyed on paper. Those that do though, really don't concern themselves too much about their current capital portfolio valuation as they have no intention to sell, realising either capital profits or losses. They didn't buy to sell, they bought to lock-in a long term income and/or equity accumulation. They accumulate more by buying or reinvesting dividends.

Thing is though, there are probably a lot more people who are really only focused on the share price and especially so when it goes against their buy-in price, i.e. they're under their buy-price and trying to decide whether to lock in capital losses and move elsewhere. The share price watchers who don't or didn't realise they were really just capital traders, and didn't react early will be hurting. So many though don't have any tools to help with when to exit a capital trade (or get in). It's all gut feel, emotional, subject to whim. All they will see is the red number on their portfolio and counting how much the will lose if they sell. Professional traders are a lot more nimble and move early, getting in, or out.

This place is 'Sharetrader' and its legacy goes back two decades, the debate between hard core investors, casual investors, momentum traders, short term and day traders, noobs and experienced never stops.

The thing I like the most about your posts is that you are very patient about explaining the maths of long term investing in sound prosperous and long term companies. Though sometimes a bit rude and dismissive towards people who don't get it, regardless of their reasons, for example, they want the trade, the quick buck, the thrill of a win.

OCA is and has been for me a long term investment, the repeated extreme capital volatility which I never expected over the past few years has been a windfall enabling me to accumulate a much larger position on-market and via DRP than originally intended based on the original capital I had to invest. Personally I have no intention to sell OCA.

I think people should ponder your expose' of the power of free money that the RV's build up (debt to ORA's) and how that is leveraged. It's quite unlike most industries and core to understanding long term investing in RV's.


I would say extremely rude and dismissive!


Yep if people are in it for the thrill of the win and want to trade I am all for that provided they understand the odds are stacked against them. Gambling after all is a massive industry. It's when people think that it's guaranteed money, or the best way to 'invest' is when I get wound up.

[Baa_Baa]

I think people should ponder your expose' of the power of free money that the RV's build up (debt to ORA's) and how that is leveraged. It's quite unlike most industries and core to understanding long term investing in RV's.

Apologies for quoting myself SailorRob, I tried but can't find your insightful post about how RV's get free money from ORA's (debt income without interest) and leverage it, like insurance company's do by other means. This is the core to the maths of the investment thesis and how RV's distinguish themselves from traditional property developers who have to raise capital, with interest.

[ValueNZ]

I think people should ponder your expose' of the power of free money that the RV's build up (debt to ORA's) and how that is leveraged. It's quite unlike most industries and core to understanding long term investing in RV's.
Perhaps someone on this forum would like to explain this?

[SailorRob]

Perhaps someone on this forum would like to explain this?

I'll find the original post and repost it as it hopefully explains it in detail.

[X-men]

Both OCA and ARV have been shortest by the same fundie. The price movements are almost identical

[Maverick]

Thanks for posting the Forbar debt analysis GreekWD.( On the" retirement village" thread)
Great to put the capital raising fear out there properly to bed.
It surely must make the OCA -CEO and CFO "employees of the month" for their applied prescience.

While I concur with 99% of the report there is one part I disagree with. Oca has never said anywhere , in any form, that they are throttling back construction. ARV certainly has. In fact OCA have clearly stated and tooled up for increased production the last few years with more staff and capital raises.

If anyone has any info on this I'd love to hear it.

[Antipodean]

Apologies for quoting myself SailorRob, I tried but can't find your insightful post about how RV's get free money from ORA's (debt income without interest) and leverage it, like insurance company's do by other means. This is the core to the maths of the investment thesis and how RV's distinguish themselves from traditional property developers who have to raise capital, with interest.

Possibly this...?

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-OCA-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=983973&viewfull=1#post983973

May also be worth reading this also...

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-OCA-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=987037&highlight=free#post987037

[bottomfeeder]

Thanks for posting the Forbar debt analysis GreekWD.( On the" retirement village" thread)
Great to put the capital raising fear out there properly to bed.
It surely must make the OCA -CEO and CFO "employees of the month" for their applied prescience.

While I concur with 99% of the report there is one part I disagree with. Oca has never said anywhere , in any form, that they are throttling back construction. ARV certainly has. In fact OCA have clearly stated and tooled up for increased production the last few years with more staff and capital raises.

If anyone has any info on this I'd love to hear it.

No knowledge specifically. I would think that they would have to wait for an improvement in SP to correctly manage a CR, unless they were desperate or wanted to kill the SP. I am sure the major shareholders would have something to say about that. To help the SP recover throttling back on construction temporarily would have to be on the cards. They would have to make the best and most efficient (profitable) use of the existing assets they have before building more. This would be especially true with the precarious economy, interest rates, property sales demand and prices.

I think that just makes common sense. Must be waiting for end of year results to announce their forward plan.

[SailorRob]

Possibly this...?

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-OCA-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=983973&viewfull=1#post983973

May also be worth reading this also...

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-OCA-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=987037&highlight=free#post987037

Thanks, those are the two I had in mind.

[bull....]

So the $917,647,000 Deferred management fee/refundable occupation license item on the balance sheet is essentially an interest free loan that cannot be called and is only paid back once the next lot of money has come through. It is a thing of immense beauty and the key to understanding the industry.

So it allows them to massively increase the amount of property they own and develop, at no cost or risk. Also worth noting here the terms and rate on their actual conventional debt which is outstanding, one bond is I think 2027 at 2.3% and the other 2028 at 3.3%. So massively negative in real terms.

So a conventional developer like you or I in simple terms, to build a million dollar house, we have to first get a million dollars, then build the house and then to build another one we either have to sell the first, or go to the bank and borrow against the first and maybe get 800k if we are lucky and subject to handing over the title to the first one to the bank and paying interest and introducing all kinds of risk.

OCA has their cake and eats it, they 'sell' the first house for more than a million while still owning it and don't pay any interest on the money they get and they don't have to pay it back (they keep a ton of it too) until it's been 'sold' again, and they do this until the cows come home and then do it some more. So they can never get into trouble with this type of liability, and it reminds me of float in the insurance industry which is fought over like crazy. Only this is way better as float is heavily regulated and you have to put up your own capital too.

Then as they develop more they get more of this free money and develop more... It's one hell of a business, and everyone is missing it as they think you're buying the net tangible assets but no, you are also buying the free billion dollars. I've never seen it discussed here but it's the real key to the business model.

the problem i see going forward they will not be able to leverage as much your free pool of money as you say
so returns will decline compared to the past

[SailorRob]

Thanks for posting the Forbar debt analysis GreekWD.( On the" retirement village" thread)
Great to put the capital raising fear out there properly to bed.
It surely must make the OCA -CEO and CFO "employees of the month" for their applied prescience.


I'm not complaining, but isn't this just capital allocation 101? They did exactly what they should have done but nothing special.

[Maverick]

I'm not complaining, but isn't this just capital allocation 101? They did exactly what they should have done but nothing special.
Couple of things their Sailor.
Yes, it is 101 in hindsight... BUT.....so was us selling houses and paying down debts last year and selling OCA for $1.50. We all see how obvious that was now but to actually act on it at the time is a different story. That is where the directors shone over their competitors who didn't get around to it at the time.

Second thing is the clever stuff in their loans fineprint that Forbar explain really well to us non bankers. The way OCA constructed the loans ( capex vs expenses treatment of interest costs etc)demonstrates skill of a high level of expertise .

I think my question may have been misunderstood Bottom Feeder. I believe , as does Forbar, that no capital raising is required either now or in the future.
Coupled with the mega development Helier about to sell down there will be sufficient cashflow.

My question on here is has anybody heard that OCA is slowing the build rate as per what Forbar are stating.
I read and listen to everything OCA and this is news to me.

Just wondering if I missed something. Nothing OCA has done or said to date indicates it's not business as usual. I also dont forsee any issues that will cause a change in their plan.

[Sideshow Bob]

Couple of things their Sailor.
Yes, it is 101 in hindsight... BUT.....so was us selling houses and paying down debts last year and selling OCA for $1.50. We all see how obvious that was now but to actually act on it at the time is a different story. That is where the directors shone over their competitors who didn't get around to it at the time.

Second thing is the clever stuff in their loans fineprint that Forbar explain really well to us non bankers. The way OCA constructed the loans ( capex vs expenses treatment of interest costs etc)demonstrates skill of a high level of expertise .

I think my question may have been misunderstood Bottom Feeder. I believe , as does Forbar, that no capital raising is required either now or in the future.
Coupled with the mega development Helier about to sell down there will be sufficient cashflow.

My question on here is has anybody heard that OCA is slowing the build rate as per what Forbar are stating.
I read and listen to everything OCA and this is news to me.

Just wondering if I missed something. Nothing OCA has done or said to date indicates it's not business as usual. I also dont forsee any issues that will cause a change in their plan.

Perhaps worth contacting OCA direct re build rate?? If they have said it they could point you in the right direction? Or otherwise it might be something they told analysts, or that Forbar's might have picked up on or read between the lines??

[justakiwi]

Mav, my guess is if you don't know about it, it's probably just the rumour mill at work ;)



My question on here is has anybody heard that OCA is slowing the build rate as per what Forbar are stating.
I read and listen to everything OCA and this is news to me.

[SailorRob]

Couple of things their Sailor.
Yes, it is 101 in hindsight... BUT.....so was us selling houses and paying down debts last year and selling OCA for $1.50. We all see how obvious that was now but to actually act on it at the time is a different story. That is where the directors shone over their competitors who didn't get around to it at the time.

Second thing is the clever stuff in their loans fineprint that Forbar explain really well to us non bankers. The way OCA constructed the loans ( capex vs expenses treatment of interest costs etc)demonstrates skill of a high level of expertise .

I think my question may have been misunderstood Bottom Feeder. I believe , as does Forbar, that no capital raising is required either now or in the future.
Coupled with the mega development Helier about to sell down there will be sufficient cashflow.

My question on here is has anybody heard that OCA is slowing the build rate as per what Forbar are stating.
I read and listen to everything OCA and this is news to me.

Just wondering if I missed something. Nothing OCA has done or said to date indicates it's not business as usual. I also dont forsee any issues that will cause a change in their plan.


I'm not convinced that selling houses trading at 30 x revenues with paper thin margins (non existent) under attack from all angles after a historically unprecedented run up in prices into the lowest interest rates in recorded history required any special insight, I think owning them beforehand though is pretty impressive and took either idiocy or incredible insight (think bitcoin didn't make any sense to begin with but worked out well).

Terming out debt at those rates would have made more sense than paying down, even current rates are massively negative.

All I am saying is that borrowing money and terming it out at historically low rates and raising equity before you need it is common sense.

The equity they raised was still at an inappropriately low price at the time, looks good now and I'm glad they did.

Clever stuff in the loans maybe but at the time the borrowers had the power, agree skillful though.

They did a much better job than their competitors but nothing special here just classic decent business acumen. I guess I am used to America and in NZ this is probably some kind of never before seen ground breaking achievement.

[Greekwatchdog]

At the half year Brent mentioned they were looking at increasing build rates to 300+ per year. I have seen nothing anywhere that says otherwise.

I look forward to May when they report their Full Year, but mostly look forward to 2023/24 beyond. I love these prices and continue to accumulate much to my Accountants frustration.

[justakiwi]

I think Mav was simply making a point to the many down rampers and doomsayers this thread has been inundated with, for literally years. OCA has been trashed constantly, more than any other RV provider, and the anti-OCA brigade has consistently criticised management and tried to convince the rest of us that we are living in La La Land, holding this company.

We are not. As you said, OCA management are "doing what they should" - but a bucketload of posters have chosen not to see/acknowledge it.


I guess I am used to America and in NZ this is probably some kind of never before seen ground breaking achievement.

[SailorRob]

I think Mav was simply making a point to the many down rampers and doomsayers this thread has been inundated with, for literally years. OCA has been trashed constantly, more than any other RV provider, and the anti-OCA brigade has consistently criticised management and tried to convince the rest of us that we are living in La La Land, holding this company.

We are not. As you said, OCA management are "doing what they should" - but a bucketload of posters have chosen not to see/acknowledge it.

Yeah don't get me wrong, they have done a bloody good job and I have posted about looking at the difference between the capital allocation of Oceania vs Ryman etc.

[Maverick]

Perhaps worth contacting OCA direct re build rate?

I've just done that thanks. I suspect they are not allowed to comment , since we are in the blackout period.
Should they respond, I'll pass it on here.( which I have been clear to them about)

It is a very material peice of information as it effects many aspects.

BTW. The industry throttling back production has to be a good thing as future demand goes unsatisfied. If OCA is maintaining its build rate as usual then that's even better.

[SailorRob]

the problem i see going forward they will not be able to leverage as much your free pool of money as you say
so returns will decline compared to the past

If the CAGR slows from long term 26% per year it's no hardship.

But more importantly, even if the dollar value of the free pool of money hasn't increased a cent, its value has increased dramatically. And I mean dramatically. Very few will appreciate this but it is a massive factor.

[winner69]

Hope yet for a get out of jail card

In the media-
Merger and acquisition activity in Australia sparked the retirement village sector here. US investment firm Bain Capital has made a A$775m (NZ$829m) takeover offer for aged-care provider Estia Health at $3 a share, a 28% premium to its latest price of A$2.66.

A buck a share for OCA might be welcome

[Greekwatchdog]

Hope yet for a get out of jail card

In the media-
Merger and acquisition activity in Australia sparked the retirement village sector here. US investment firm Bain Capital has made a A$775m (NZ$829m) takeover offer for aged-care provider Estia Health at $3 a share, a 28% premium to its latest price of A$2.66.

A buck a share for OCA might be welcome

You would be dreaming. Thats just a stupid thing to say, and the only one hoping for that is a Short Trader/Momentum Trader. It won't happen

[winner69]

You would be dreaming. Thats just a stupid thing to say, and the only one hoping for that is a Short Trader/Momentum Trader. It won't happen

Maybe $1.20 then:)

[Greekwatchdog]

Maybe $1.20 then:)

Not interested. The board will not do what that Gut Less bunch did at Met

[Baa_Baa]

Hope yet for a get out of jail card

In the media-
Merger and acquisition activity in Australia sparked the retirement village sector here. US investment firm Bain Capital has made a A$775m (NZ$829m) takeover offer for aged-care provider Estia Health at $3 a share, a 28% premium to its latest price of A$2.66.

A buck a share for OCA might be welcome

It's not often you make a dick of yourself, but this is scraping the bottom. You must realise that apart from bull****, the 'in crowd' of persistent detractors have moved on elsewhere, and good riddance to them, as they're so poorly informed about the health of OCA, dwelling on myths that are just simply not true.

You reckon the board and management who hold millions of shares would sell for a $1.00? Get real mate, you're losing the plot. By all means post a take over elsewhere, but to extrapolate to OCA and worse, suggest a ridiculous price ... just stop it, it's not doing anything to advance the discussion, or your reputation.

You wanted a reaction, you got it! Post the same drivel on the other RV threads as well, with your acquisition price for them, then I'll know you're not just bashing OCA for some perverse reason or effect.

[SailorRob]

Hope yet for a get out of jail card

In the media-
Merger and acquisition activity in Australia sparked the retirement village sector here. US investment firm Bain Capital has made a A$775m (NZ$829m) takeover offer for aged-care provider Estia Health at $3 a share, a 28% premium to its latest price of A$2.66.

A buck a share for OCA might be welcome

At least state your reasons for believing a dollar a share would be an attractive price to sell at.

If this is jail then I'd better start committing some serious crimes.

Even Bull can come up with some quasi credible bearish reasoning from the perspective of first order thinking.

[Muse]

W69 habitually picks whatever statistic looks worst and posts it as he loves to stir - it's his special thing.

As for informing his hypothetical 'what if this had been OCA' - extrapolating the takeover premium into an OCA shareprice - he could have looked at the implied price to book and what that price per share outcome would have been.

* Bain reported offer of ~$3/shr
* Estia consensus BVPS at 30 june 2023 of $2.0
* implied price to book of 1.5x
* Consensus BVPS for OCA 1.34
* You can do the math (hint, its twice what w69 threw out).

Disc: i'm not even a loyal OCA holder - have a most deminimus shareholding - and don't what the right answer is and dont really care either way - but found his analysis stunted. There will be a variety of other implied valuation metrics coming from Estia's takeover and it may not even be a good comp given its in a different country with a different set of circumstances.

[winner69]

W69 habitually picks whatever statistic looks worst and posts it as he loves to stir - it's his special thing.

As for informing his hypothetical 'what if this had been OCA' - extrapolating the takeover premium into an OCA shareprice - he could have looked at the implied price to book and what that price per share outcome would have been.

* Bain reported offer of ~$3/shr
* Estia consensus BVPS at 30 june 2023 of $2.0
* implied price to book of 1.5x
* Consensus price to book for OCA 1.34
* You can do the math (hint, its twice what w69 threw out).

Disc: i'm not even a loyal OCA holder - have a most deminimus shareholding - and don't what the right answer is and dont really care either way - but found his analysis stunted. There will be a variety of other implied valuation metrics coming from Estia's takeover and it may not even be a good comp given its in a different country with a different set of circumstances.

Interesting that in Oz an outfit like Estia traded at 1 times book value before rumours and takeover offer when (similar?) outfits in NZ trade at significant discounts

[X-men]

Happy to let it this dog go at 80c....lol

[Greekwatchdog]

Happy to let it this dog go at 80c....lol

You be the dog,

[SailorRob]

Happy to let it this dog go at 80c....lol

Is this just because the share price has fallen well below what you paid recently and now you're realising that this is a big boys game and you're out of your depth? You have no idea what you're doing and pray for the day that you can just break even and get out?

Is Oceania Healthcare the 'dog' or is it your lack of understanding of the capital markets that is in fact the mutt?

Better luck next time eh.

[X-men]

The market spoken....72c now...

[SailorRob]

The market spoken....72c now...

So when the market 'spoke' at $1.60 was it right or wrong?

[X-men]

Retail buyers like u guys...too dumb got suck in above $1....🤣🤣🤣

[SailorRob]

I've been going through the phone book looking for this dude bull was talking about, lower bollinger, finally got hold of him. He told me $2 by Christmas.

But he refused to say which Christmas.

[Greekwatchdog]

Retail buyers like u guys...too dumb got suck in above $1....藍藍藍

Nope, My retirement Portfolio Average is $0.5984 per. I have have heaps. This has increased as I have been buying between $0.80 and $0.73.
Maybe your so called dumb retail investors as you called it, are looking at the long term. Why don't you run to your kennel and play with your tail.

[bull....]

Hope yet for a get out of jail card

In the media-
Merger and acquisition activity in Australia sparked the retirement village sector here. US investment firm Bain Capital has made a A$775m (NZ$829m) takeover offer for aged-care provider Estia Health at $3 a share, a 28% premium to its latest price of A$2.66.

A buck a share for OCA might be welcome

i would be very surprised if a t/o happened. nobody wanted bupa , but like you say if it did happen some people might be happy

[bull....]

It's not often you make a dick of yourself, but this is scraping the bottom. You must realise that apart from bull****, the 'in crowd' of persistent detractors have moved on elsewhere, and good riddance to them, as they're so poorly informed about the health of OCA, dwelling on myths that are just simply not true.

You reckon the board and management who hold millions of shares would sell for a $1.00? Get real mate, you're losing the plot. By all means post a take over elsewhere, but to extrapolate to OCA and worse, suggest a ridiculous price ... just stop it, it's not doing anything to advance the discussion, or your reputation.

You wanted a reaction, you got it! Post the same drivel on the other RV threads as well, with your acquisition price for them, then I'll know you're not just bashing OCA for some perverse reason or effect.

no we are not poorly informed ..... we were the smart money and got out at near the top after reading the tea leaves correctly.

Some of your post's , the latest attacking winner come across as someone who is emotionally attached to there stock which is a fundamental mistake in investing , even long term investing
becoming emotional over a stock lead's to irrational decision making in your case you probably brought heaps at the gift of covid lows and now you have lost half your gains because of your love of the stock and failure to read the situation correctly rueing your lost gains in the process and hoping one day you will regain your former riches

[bull....]

The market spoken....72c now...

so correct

[justakiwi]

Keep telling yourself that if it makes you happy, but 99.9% of what you post here is nothing more than **** stirring. You make a great mate for winner69.



no we are not poorly informed ..... we were the smart money and got out at near the top after reading the tea leaves correctly.

[bull....]

Keep telling yourself that if it makes you happy, but 99.9% of what you post here is nothing more than **** stirring. You make a great mate for winner69.

another person emotially attached to the stock who has not read the tea leaves correctly and its not sit stirring it giving an oposing view compared to your bullish ramping lol
thats what makes a market opposing sides , one side is the winner the other the loser

[Greekwatchdog]

another person emotially attached to the stock who has not read the tea leaves correctly and its not sit stirring it giving an oposing view compared to your bullish ramping lol
thats what makes a market opposing sides , one side is the winner the other the loser

Bull, You are only a "loser" on the Sharemarket when you see at a loss, just like a when you a "Winner" you sell at a profit. There are sorts of investors whether it be short, Momentum or Long Term Investor. Each has there own timeline. Nothing to do with tealeaves.

[justakiwi]

The "lol" you often add to the end of many of your sentences, gives you away more than you realise. You do not post in this thread to help anyone. You post here purely for entertainment purposes. If you and your 12 monitors are so incredibly successful, as you claim, why on earth are you wasting your time hanging out in pointless discussions? Surely you'd have more fun on a world cruise, or swimming with sharks or sipping champagne on your private jet.

You are quite possibly the least credible person in these forums.

But you have a wonderful day!


another person emotially attached to the stock who has not read the tea leaves correctly and its not sit stirring it giving an oposing view compared to your bullish ramping lol
thats what makes a market opposing sides , one side is the winner the other the loser

[SailorRob]

no we are not poorly informed ..... we were the smart money and got out at near the top after reading the tea leaves correctly.

Some of your post's , the latest attacking winner come across as someone who is emotionally attached to there stock which is a fundamental mistake in investing , even long term investing
becoming emotional over a stock lead's to irrational decision making in your case you probably brought heaps at the gift of covid lows and now you have lost half your gains because of your love of the stock and failure to read the situation correctly rueing your lost gains in the process and hoping one day you will regain your former riches

How do you bring a stock?

[ronaldson]

I thought to expand on my post 14077 above which drew attention to the fact that 10 of OCA's sites are now classified as " held for sale".

The first mention of this was in the CEO's commentary on 23 June at the AGM. He said " As the business matures we also have an eye to those sites that may no longer fit the portfolio or meet return thresholds and divestment of a few sites will likely be part of this year's activity."

After a couple of subsequent acquisitions OCA now has 47 sites, 26 of which are described as existing sites with mature operations,21 as existing sites with current or planned development, and 1 undeveloped. I suspect it is only the rules around accounting treatment that have forced the disclosure in the half-year financials that no less than 10 of these sites have been assessed by the Board as appropriate for disposal (no doubt dependent upon price that can be achieved).

The Chair makes clear that " The strategy is to enable less reliance upon Government funding for ongoing operations, with (remaining) sites free to operate outside the restrictions of the current Government funding model." And there is reference to " recycling cash within the business."

This may beg the question how you successfully dispose of operational sites that are not making an adequate return, to whom you might do that, and what sale price might be achieved in such circumstance. But it is still more than 20% of the portfolio and should have Andrew Little on edge as once the listed and unlisted RV operators effectively abandon ship with regard to basic state funded aged care as policy he is in really big trouble. I would say this is yet another dead canary signaling how it is and is going to be in future.

I wonder what will occur so far as the intended divestments are concerned between now and FY23. That may tell a tale what, if anything, can be achieved and as to the extent of any "haircut" to values.

This is such an active thread that I had to go back to page 1409 for this quote. Does anyone know if any sales have actually been achieved and if so how it is? Anyone aware if properties are listed with a broker and if so which?

Or are we to assume these properties are effectively unsaleable/valueless as operating entities in the current market?

[winner69]

This is such an active thread that I had to go back to page 1409 for this quote. Does anyone know if any sales have actually been achieved and if so how it is? Anyone aware if properties are listed with a broker and if so which?

Or are we to assume these properties are effectively unsaleable/valueless as operating entities in the current market?

You’d have to think that as they noted this in the accounts they were sort of confident it would be all cleared up by end of financial year to have a ‘tidy’ balance sheet at year end.

Maybe an announcement next week

[ronaldson]

You’d have to think that as they noted this in the accounts they were sort of confident it would be all cleared up by end of financial year to have a ‘tidy’ balance sheet at year end.

Maybe an announcement next week

I looked at Note 3.3 to the Interim Financial Statements for the 6 months ended 30 September 2022. Assets are classified as "held for sale" when their carrying amount is to be recovered principally through a sale transaction and a sale is consider highly probable. As at 30 September ten sites " are being actively marketed for sale " and as such meet the definition.

These sites and their respective land, building, investment property, plant and equipment and liabilities are reclassified for reporting purposes. After deducting around $2.5m for "change in fair value" during the period the balance attributed to these assets was $64.784m. These were no sites classified as held for sale as at 31 March 2022. Currently the Oceania website still lists 47 villages as operated by OCA so by implication no sales have occurred in the intervening period.

As I have pointed out these 10 (unidentified) villages are over 20% of the total number operated by OCA. It is unclear if final divestment of one or more of these villages will result in the realisation of further downward change in fair value than that taken when these villages were determined to be appropriate to list for sale or if significant additional adjustment is required upon realisation what that means for the carry value of OCA's other village assets (or for that matter other RV operators).

I believe this aspect is the most determinant of OCA's current share price.

[Balance]

A idea of what’s happening with property market and property prices out there:

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/mortgagee-auction-pain-sandringham-bungalow-suffers-near-1m-loss-in-18-months-43279

Mortgagee sale - 38% drop in less than 1.5 years from $2.56 m to $1.611m.

[Fortunecookie]

A idea of what’s happening with property market and property prices out there:

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/mortgagee-auction-pain-sandringham-bungalow-suffers-near-1m-loss-in-18-months-43279

Mortgagee sale - 38% drop in less than 1.5 years from $2.56 m to $1.611m.

The market was nuts at the time. But if I recall rightly and it is something that hasnt really been mentioned so much. New housing density laws was announced late 2021 that allowed intensification virtually anywhere in the main cities. Supply of development land literally increased overnight. Of course rates have increased since, lending and RBNZ rules have tightened. Let's not forget about CCCFA.

I do believe the concentration of risk are for purchases around early late 2020/early 2021 to late 2021. That's just a small percentage of all of NZ properties. I firmly believe most NZers will do ok.

[bottomfeeder]

A idea of what’s happening with property market and property prices out there:

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/mortgagee-auction-pain-sandringham-bungalow-suffers-near-1m-loss-in-18-months-43279

Mortgagee sale - 38% drop in less than 1.5 years from $2.56 m to $1.611m.
Lookout your place will be up for mortgagee sale soon and it will sell for 38% less than what it was worth a year ago.

Effectively thats what you are suggesting, because it happened once or twice, it going to happen to everyone.

Doom and Gloom based on instances either isolated, or not relevant to most homeowners.

Hate to live in your household, it must be every spare moment in crisis, "Oh my God! Oh No!."

[Balance]

Lookout your place will be up for mortgagee sale soon and it will sell for 38% less than what it was worth a year ago.

Effectively thats what you are suggesting, because it happened once or twice, it going to happen to everyone.

Doom and Gloom based on instances either isolated, or not relevant to most homeowners.

Hate to live in your household, it must be every spare moment in crisis, "Oh my God! Oh No!."

Chill, bottomfeeder.

I posted the article to provide perspective on what's happening out there in the real world where the property market has turned septic for some buyers/speculators.

Real estate valuations are based upon previous sale values so the market is now entering a rapid declining value stage, triggering mortgagee sales as the one in the link.

All except the RVs of course - they just keep posting upward revisions to their valuations?

Are you feeling punch drunk from the fall and fall of OCA's sp, reacting to information which obviously you do not like?

[bottomfeeder]

Chill, bottomfeeder.

I posted the article to provide perspective on what's happening out there in the real world where the property market has turned septic for some buyers/speculators.

Real estate valuations are based upon previous sale values so the market is now entering a rapid declining value stage, triggering mortgagee sales as the one in the link.

All except the RVs of course - they just keep posting upward revisions to their valuations?

Are you feeling punch drunk from the fall and fall of OCA's sp, reacting to information which obviously you do not like?
Maybe, but am getting tired of the quoting of sporadic incidents as bding the norm for the future.

One proven result of increased interest rates is a 40 drop in property sales. Now this can also signal that many people are reluctant to sell at reduced prices, because they dont have to and they feel their properties are worth more. This could also be because you cant build new for anything near what you used to, also rents have not decreased and in fact are increasing thus why sell when you can do your own thing and rent your property out.

[Balance]

Maybe, but am getting tired of the quoting of sporadic incidents as bding the norm for the future.

One proven result of increased interest rates is a 40 drop in property sales. Now this can also signal that many people are reluctant to sell at reduced prices, because they dont have to and they feel their properties are worth more. This could also be because you cant build new for anything near what you used to, also rents have not decreased and in fact are increasing thus why sell when you can do your own thing and rent your property out.

For the umpteenth time, you can build today much cheaper than before - because the biggest component of a new build these days is LAND. And the price of land has dropped hugely in the last 12 months from the absurd levels they reached in 2021.

You have no idea really, do you of property development dynamics?

[Baa_Baa]

For the umpteenth time, you can build today much cheaper than before the biggest component of a new build these days is LAND. And the price of land has dropped hugely in the last 12 months from the absurd levels they reached in 2021.

You have no idea really, do you of property development dynamics?

That may well be the case, who are we to question a property sector participant, conveyor, or whatever your insights are. What we are waiting for is the correlation of the residential property sector, to the RV sector, which the market has already decided is profound, but in reality is not quite as obvious yet.

SUM say it's not as profound as the market seems to believe, Scott has repeated this at least twice. RYM shat on itself with it's dodgy debt having to repay it with huge penalties, so we're still waiting on their sales figures. ARV look a bit exposed to debt and covenants, we'll have to wait for their reporting. OCA, well the FY is about to end and it'll be a few months until we find out how or whether they've been affected.

Trotting out anecdotal and media reports of incidences where some developer or punter took a bath on their property is interesting, but not necessarily reflective of the whole RV sector. Given that you only post these on OCA, maybe we can take it that you're interested to get some but are also waiting until the share price bottoms out. Can't argue with that if you're onto it with your timing. I'd say, all the best and carry on!

[bottomfeeder]

For the umpteenth time, you can build today much cheaper than before - because the biggest component of a new build these days is LAND. And the price of land has dropped hugely in the last 12 months from the absurd levels they reached in 2021.

You have no idea really, do you of property development dynamics?

Well that's a brave statement. I was a Chartered Accountant in public practice for 40 years. I dealt with numerous developments, most very successful. Sure some failed due to undercapitalisation, and demand implications, as well as property values at various states of economic difficulties. But you certainly cant tar all with the same brush as you do. Just because one is a dismal failure not all are going to fail. I also experienced profitabiliyy aspects of property development rising dramatically, and others suffering at the same time, for very small nuanced reasons. As you say property markets and developments are dynamic. Have to agree. When there appears to be a rout, there is also a follow through with an improvement and vica versa. Not as you suggest, a few mortgagee sales and then the whole property market is collapsing.

Doesn't pay to be too optimistic, but I think the worse scenario to investing is overt and continuous pessimism, which will definitely restrict your capabilities to see and judge clearly.

[SailorRob]

Interestingly the market is valuing Argosy, which is a dog of a business model, at 62% of book.

And OCA at 27% of book value (when you understand how to actually measure book value).

Even under GAAP OCA is being valued at 53% of book.

Now I realise 0.62 book for Argosy is probably far too high (I would never pay that) but even so, very interesting.

Two completely different businesses. One far superior to the other.

[bull....]

Debt holding back retirement village sector - report


It said three of the bigger firms in the sector listed on the stock exchange - Ryman Healthcare, Arvida and Oceania Healthcare - have tripled the amount of debt they are carrying over the past five years, more than any other sector.
But analyst and report co-author Aaron Ibbotson said the companies have probably taken on too much debt.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/486807/debt-holding-back-retirement-village-sector-report

get the cash right's issue under way before its too late :scared:

[justakiwi]

Or maybe they simply do what we have already discussed, as mentioned in the article:

"If interest rates and construction costs remain high, we estimate that the sector has an attractive 'out' by not starting any new build projects.
"This could result in the sector becoming largely debt-free."
Forsyth Barr said the three operators had each indicated they would scale back on development and take a more cautious approach.
"If these operators are able… to pay down debt alongside the development rundown… there would be a sizeable upside to the equity value over the next three to four years," it said.


Debt holding back retirement village sector - report


It said three of the bigger firms in the sector listed on the stock exchange - Ryman Healthcare, Arvida and Oceania Healthcare - have tripled the amount of debt they are carrying over the past five years, more than any other sector.
But analyst and report co-author Aaron Ibbotson said the companies have probably taken on too much debt.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/486807/debt-holding-back-retirement-village-sector-report

get the cash right's issue under way before its too late :scared:

[bull....]

Or maybe they simply do what we have already discussed, as mentioned in the article:

"If interest rates and construction costs remain high, we estimate that the sector has an attractive 'out' by not starting any new build projects.
"This could result in the sector becoming largely debt-free."
Forsyth Barr said the three operators had each indicated they would scale back on development and take a more cautious approach.
"If these operators are able… to pay down debt alongside the development rundown… there would be a sizeable upside to the equity value over the next three to four years," it said.

which brings us to what i mentioned less cashflow and lower returns going forward compared to the past. now you get the idea of why the stock prices are so marked down.

forget about nta its rubbish historical figure

[justakiwi]

While I agree with your statement about cashflows, share prices have been down significantly for the past three years. Prices for this sector in particular, have fluctuated up and down between the same general range of price, over that period, so your apparent claim that pulling back on development is the reason for today's prices, is not credible.


which brings us to what i mentioned less cashflow and lower returns going forward compared to the past. now you get the idea of why the stock prices are so marked down.

forget about nta its rubbish historical figure

[Greekwatchdog]

Debt holding back retirement village sector - report


It said three of the bigger firms in the sector listed on the stock exchange - Ryman Healthcare, Arvida and Oceania Healthcare - have tripled the amount of debt they are carrying over the past five years, more than any other sector.
But analyst and report co-author Aaron Ibbotson said the companies have probably taken on too much debt.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/486807/debt-holding-back-retirement-village-sector-report

get the cash right's issue under way before its too late :scared:

This just mirrors what was posted last week you short sighted human. ARV has more concerns than OCA. But hey you hate OCA..

[mike2020]

This just mirrors what was posted last week you short sighted human. ARV has more concerns than OCA. But hey you hate OCA..

I don't think he hates it or anything he's looking at, if the price is right he will be in (and out) like a robbers dog :t_up:

[bull....]

This just mirrors what was posted last week you short sighted human. ARV has more concerns than OCA. But hey you hate OCA..

no i dont get emotional over stock's
the article you posted had some shortcoming's in that it focused mainly on debt
i thought i would highlight the article again because of the analyst's short coming in relation to not spending enough time on cashflow's going forward which of course has some relation to debt among other factors
i dont agree with your statement arv has more to worry about than oca i think they are all equal to worry

[bull....]

I don't think he hates it or anything he's looking at, if the price is right he will be in (and out) like a robbers dog :t_up:

you are correct
if the price is right

[Greekwatchdog]

no i dont get emotional over stock's
the article you posted had some shortcoming's in that it focused mainly on debt
i thought i would highlight the article again because of the analyst's short coming in relation to not spending enough time on cashflow's going forward which of course has some relation to debt among other factors
i dont agree with your statement arv has more to worry about than oca i think they are all equal to worry

Who do you think Aaron Ibbotson works for? For Bar. He co wrote that report I posted.

[SailorRob]

Bull is right, Oceania didn't take on anywhere near enough debt at the rates that they got, this is hindsight but they could have borrowed far more and bought it back again if they wanted, or preferably stock.

Meanwhile I want to take my holding up to 150,000 shares. If I was 95% of people on share trader I would want to pay more for the extra shares I need.

I want to get up to 150k by spending as little as possible.

Before you all pile on Bull, let's remember this is a person who has an astounding long term record and has made enough to easily retire but chooses to put in 60 hours a week working with handicapped children.

They say the kids can relate to him.

[Louloubell]

It is always a good sign/reflection of a person if animals and kids relate well.

[Fortunecookie]

Bull is right, Oceania didn't take on anywhere near enough debt at the rates that they got, this is hindsight but they could have borrowed far more and bought it back again if they wanted, or preferably stock.

Meanwhile I want to take my holding up to 150,000 shares. If I was 95% of people on share trader I would want to pay more for the extra shares I need.

I want to get up to 150k by spending as little as possible.

Before you all pile on Bull, let's remember this is a person who has an astounding long term record and has made enough to easily retire but chooses to put in 60 hours a week working with handicapped children.

They say the kids can relate to him.

Good on ya Bull.

I sense the experience is enriching that's beyond monetary. So it should be.

Any chance you disclosing your track record.
Promise won't accuse you of bragging.
Jokes....all good if you want to keep it to yourself. I understand the purpose is to improve oneself and not compare to us.

[Curly]

Bull is right, Oceania didn't take on anywhere near enough debt at the rates that they got, this is hindsight but they could have borrowed far more and bought it back again if they wanted, or preferably stock.

Meanwhile I want to take my holding up to 150,000 shares. If I was 95% of people on share trader I would want to pay more for the extra shares I need.

I want to get up to 150k by spending as little as possible.

Before you all pile on Bull, let's remember this is a person who has an astounding long term record and has made enough to easily retire but chooses to put in 60 hours a week working with handicapped children.

They say the kids can relate to him.
Contemplating topping up at current price but thinking cash is King at the moment. In other words how low can OCA go and when will sector come back in favour. Guess it will bounce back as soon as it can be shown that real estate values are going up again and an end to the war in Ukraine is eminent. Against that should any more Banks roll over or a manipulated crash occur then there is scope for further downturn. Nothing changes and history repeats. It has been said, falling house prices, rising sharemarket. Interesting times not for the faint hearted.

[X-men]

Arvida, rayman, OCA ..need to be delisted....what a waste...

[BlackPeter]

Arvida, rayman, OCA ..need to be delisted....what a waste...

Do you want to enlarge on that or are you just making a non-sensical statement with spelling mistakes?

[limmy]

Agree fully with you, BlackPeter. People shouldn't make statements without qualifying their reasons for doing so.
Such statements are not helpful... to anyone.

[bottomfeeder]

Arvida, rayman, OCA ..need to be delisted....what a waste...

OMG. WTF. Just a troll.

[SailorRob]

Contemplating topping up at current price but thinking cash is King at the moment. In other words how low can OCA go and when will sector come back in favour. Guess it will bounce back as soon as it can be shown that real estate values are going up again and an end to the war in Ukraine is eminent. Against that should any more Banks roll over or a manipulated crash occur then there is scope for further downturn. Nothing changes and history repeats. It has been said, falling house prices, rising sharemarket. Interesting times not for the faint hearted.


No offence intended and I understand your thoughts, however if you have the ability to be able to make that choice (holding cash vs OCA until you get a better shot) and you can consistently make these decisions, you will be on the NZ rich list followed shortly by the global one.

If you have that ability then you should go to 100% cash and then when you know the time is right, lever up massively.

If you can prove you have this ability I will give you all of my money as well and pay you a very hansom fee.

[SailorRob]

Too funny Beagle. It's interesting that you currently dislike this “flea infested mutt” and yet you own it and won't/cant walk away.

Here's my uneducated theory for you since it's more or less happy hour right now, grab that tui and lets go…
It seems to me you've morphed from value investing (with TA on the side) to being TA dominant these days (but only trading with value companies.) Now we all know the TA and momentum for RV stocks has been appalling for 7 months now. That's why you loathe it….but there's that part of you that still knows somewhere in this flea infested mutt is value. There's your quandary.

You know I'm all about the value and have a long time horizon but don't you worry , I still feel these falls as keenly as anybody. When you and I get our knickers in such a twist on a few cents movement it tells me 2 things.
Firstly- nearly all other investors will be feeling the same emotions and thinking capitulation -” sending it of to the works” (almost certainly worse than us if they are newer to the game or less familiar with the actual OCA financials)
Secondly- that only a few cents movement can now evoke such a reaction surely suggests incredulity it can fall even further, even by a few cents. I interpret this as we must be at or close to the bottom as there is no remaining logic causing this low level. I suspect you instinctively know that too.

ARV and OCA PE were about 19/20 about 6 months ago when everything was property positive, oil was cheap enough, inflation was transitory and our smug little hermit nation was ticking along fine. See where I'm going with this. So now ARV and OCA have had PE compression all the way down to 12.5-13.Yes, RYM and SUM have too of course but run on different multiples. This is the next clue that the readjustment is now complete as i've never known PEs of ARV or OCA ever to go below this.

Ive done a bit of digging around as a value investor making sure the company has not experienced any operational changes to justify a derating. I am fully re- assured the fundamentals of OCA , deliveries , prices etc have not changed in the slightest. In fact everything is right where it should be as of this week despite potential omicron and labour/supply issues. We know from other companies they too are performing as expected. So it's ALL about perception. As an aside “ finance sector ” is all in TA favour right now hence it's easy to love HGH but hate all things property.

The real dilemma for you I suggest Beagle is not how much more can this fall but for you is when to get back in. You fundamentally can sniff a good feed when Waimarie gets selling ( and I can confirm that through my workings) but it's got to be another 18 months away . So you instinctively know the feed is there to be had but when do you get back on board?... What do you do Jack , what do you do ( fantastic quote from Sandra Bullock's “Speed”).

Market closes in 10 minutes and we will despair or celebrate if it goes up or down a few cents. Time for a second tui to celebrate ( or commiserate.)

Have a great weekend mate, your post has certainly caused quite a stir.


Mavericks post from a year ago, the readjustment was certainly not complete. Timing is so tough that nobody can do it.


While I respect Mavs analysis and input on OCA as much as anyone and freely admit that he knows more about this company than I ever will, I take extreme umbrage at the comment;

'You know I'm all about the value and have a long time horizon but don't you worry , I still feel these falls as keenly as anybody'.

Any long time horizon value investor who understands OCA should not 'feel these falls keenly', the falls should instead get their heart racing and filled with joy. It should be the very best outcome they could hope for.

Maverick is smart and I am right, this is why he will agree with me.

[Entrep]

Arvida, rayman, OCA ..need to be delisted....what a waste...

That’s the spirit!

[Louloubell]

I think X-men felt deprived of attention. We love you bro and you are a valuable member of our community.

[bull....]

Any long time horizon value investor who understands OCA should not 'feel these falls keenly', the falls should instead get their heart racing and filled with joy. It should be the very best outcome they could hope for.



you know the funny thing about all your analysis about how lovely it is to have the price lower and lower and to keep buying cause this wonderful amazing company is so cheap long term is the fact in all your analysis you fail to mention one risk where it could all go wrong and you will lose a very large amount of money. no investment is risk free
how about you enlighten us of the risks you see where you could lose your money

[SailorRob]

you know the funny thing about all your analysis about how lovely it is to have the price lower and lower and to keep buying cause this wonderful amazing company is so cheap long term is the fact in all your analysis you fail to mention one risk where it could all go wrong and you will lose a very large amount of money. no investment is risk free
how about you enlighten us of the risks you see where you could lose your money


Ok, good question Bull.

Firstly, the lower the price is then the less risk there is, provided there hasn't been a major change in the business.

As far as losing a very large amount of money - this cannot happen to me with OCA as it is sized such that even a total loss would be relatively inconsequential and on top of that I believe the risk of total loss to be virtually non existent.

Having said that, why am I not more invested in this company then? Well a couple of reasons, one being opportunities elsewhere and the other being what you are talking about which is OCA specific risks (and NZ) which of course exist.

The main risk that I see is regulation, if any regulation is put in place that effects the 'float' or the billion dollars of interest free non callable unconditional financing then that's a change that would make me no longer interested in the business. Given that many people don't understand this aspect of it, including the pros and how much negativity is already in the price, if these types of regulations were implemented then possibly would not have too dramatic short term effect? I don't know.

The second risk is of industry overbuilding, which I think has been dramatically de risked of late.

Third risk is of the type that we have recently seen at Ryman, god awful capital allocation. I think we can quantify that risk reasonably well.

Fourth risk is of fraud or some major financing screw up - again easily quantifiable.

And then another major risk factor for me is having any investment in a quasi communist country where profit is a dirty word and the government can and does pass any law they like overnight under urgency and more importantly the populace does not care or perhaps even understand. We could easily see a massive debasement in our currency or a true financial crisis here the likes of which cannot be imagined.

I control this risk by having only one single investment in the commie paradise which is OCA.

Speaking of risk, damn will you look at that Russian banks share price!

[SailorRob]

Bull, the share trader with his screens so bright,
His fingers move with speed, his eyes alight.
He knows each chart like the back of his hand,
With precision he trades across the land.

No matter the time or the place he may be,
Bull can make money, just wait and see.
From London to Tokyo, his trades take flight,
Profit and success are always in sight.


The numbers, the trends, they all speak to him,
With every tick he feels the market's whim.
He's a master of the game, a true pro,
In the world of trading, he's a hero.

His twelve screens are his windows to wealth,
Bull's expertise and skill are his greatest wealth.
He knows the tricks of the trade, the secrets too,
His knowledge and instincts always guide him true.


So if you're ever in need of some stock advice,
Seek out Bull, the master of the financial slice.
His charts and graphs will show the way,
To riches and success every single day.

[bull....]

Bull, the share trader with his screens so bright,
His fingers move with speed, his eyes alight.
He knows each chart like the back of his hand,
With precision he trades across the land.

No matter the time or the place he may be,
Bull can make money, just wait and see.
From London to Tokyo, his trades take flight,
Profit and success are always in sight.


The numbers, the trends, they all speak to him,
With every tick he feels the market's whim.
He's a master of the game, a true pro,
In the world of trading, he's a hero.

His twelve screens are his windows to wealth,
Bull's expertise and skill are his greatest wealth.
He knows the tricks of the trade, the secrets too,
His knowledge and instincts always guide him true.


So if you're ever in need of some stock advice,
Seek out Bull, the master of the financial slice.
His charts and graphs will show the way,
To riches and success every single day.

very witty

he who understands it earns it ... he who doesnt pays it ...

[bull....]

Ok, good question Bull.

Firstly, the lower the price is then the less risk there is, provided there hasn't been a major change in the business.

As far as losing a very large amount of money - this cannot happen to me with OCA as it is sized such that even a total loss would be relatively inconsequential and on top of that I believe the risk of total loss to be virtually non existent.

Having said that, why am I not more invested in this company then? Well a couple of reasons, one being opportunities elsewhere and the other being what you are talking about which is OCA specific risks (and NZ) which of course exist.

The main risk that I see is regulation, if any regulation is put in place that effects the 'float' or the billion dollars of interest free non callable unconditional financing then that's a change that would make me no longer interested in the business. Given that many people don't understand this aspect of it, including the pros and how much negativity is already in the price, if these types of regulations were implemented then possibly would not have too dramatic short term effect? I don't know.

The second risk is of industry overbuilding, which I think has been dramatically de risked of late.

Third risk is of the type that we have recently seen at Ryman, god awful capital allocation. I think we can quantify that risk reasonably well.

Fourth risk is of fraud or some major financing screw up - again easily quantifiable.

And then another major risk factor for me is having any investment in a quasi communist country where profit is a dirty word and the government can and does pass any law they like overnight under urgency and more importantly the populace does not care or perhaps even understand. We could easily see a massive debasement in our currency or a true financial crisis here the likes of which cannot be imagined.

I control this risk by having only one single investment in the commie paradise which is OCA.

Speaking of risk, damn will you look at that Russian banks share price!

good to see someone controlling there risk and admitting there is risk.
One risk you have not mentioned taking in regard you say this company is truely amazing is the risk of the price continuing to fall and then there is a takeover of this truely amazing company

sailor says 75c is a bargain even cheaper is better
eg lets say the price falls to 40c your underwater 50% on your initial investment ( which is probably true for sailor) but no worries sailor says cheaper shares i love that :t_up:
then a suitor comes along and offers to takeover the company at 60c a 50% premium to the prevailing price :scared: of 40c , 50% premium wow

the company succeeds and takeover is complete of this truely amazing company , poor sailor has lost even though he thought buying lower was amazing value

[Grumble]

5th risk is the entire business model works on appreciating capital value.

[SailorRob]

5th risk is the entire business model works on appreciating capital value.

No, I am very comfortable this isn't a risk, not at the price I paid.

I detest property 'investment' it's a giant ponzi.

Has to be able to produce cash.

[SailorRob]

good to see someone controlling there risk and admitting there is risk.
One risk you have not mentioned taking in regard you say this company is truely amazing is the risk of the price continuing to fall and then there is a takeover of this truely amazing company

sailor says 75c is a bargain even cheaper is better
eg lets say the price falls to 40c your underwater 50% on your initial investment ( which is probably true for sailor) but no worries sailor says cheaper shares i love that :t_up:
then a suitor comes along and offers to takeover the company at 60c a 50% premium to the prevailing price :scared: of 40c , 50% premium wow

the company succeeds and takeover is complete of this truely amazing company , poor sailor has lost even though he thought buying lower was amazing value

Yes, agree this is a risk and one I didn't highlight.

But really this risk is one of ignorant shareholders.

The shares the directors own strongly mitigates this risk.

Yes you're about right with 40c level, think my average is around 85c currently.

[SailorRob]

Don't worry, I've been stung hard with averaging down before, but I did know the risks too at the time.

There are some companies I believe that buying lower is risk free, but not many.

[Curly]

Bull, the share trader with his screens so bright,
His fingers move with speed, his eyes alight.
He knows each chart like the back of his hand,
With precision he trades across the land.

No matter the time or the place he may be,
Bull can make money, just wait and see.
From London to Tokyo, his trades take flight,
Profit and success are always in sight.


The numbers, the trends, they all speak to him,
With every tick he feels the market's whim.
He's a master of the game, a true pro,
In the world of trading, he's a hero.

His twelve screens are his windows to wealth,
Bull's expertise and skill are his greatest wealth.
He knows the tricks of the trade, the secrets too,
His knowledge and instincts always guide him true.


So if you're ever in need of some stock advice,
Seek out Bull, the master of the financial slice.
His charts and graphs will show the way,
To riches and success every single day.
Clever that.

[winner69]

Rob average ‘around 85 cents’ so he’s hoping for a recovery

GWD says their average is $0.5984 so they well ahead at the moment ….we’ll done

The ones I still have cost me an average of -55 cents …negative 55 cents (could say I got paid to keep them). Was a lot higher a while ago so I’m not doing that well at the moment……should have sold the lot but as Peter says no one can predict the future

[Greekwatchdog]

GWD says their average is $0.5984 so they well ahead at the moment ….we’ll done

I don't worry about this down turn W69. As I have said before I am a long term holder and find it exceptional value. Value is in eye of the beholder.

[SailorRob]

Rob average ‘around 85 cents’ so he’s hoping for a recovery

GWD says their average is $0.5984 so they well ahead at the moment ….we’ll done

The ones I still have cost me an average of -55 cents …negative 55 cents (could say I got paid to keep them). Was a lot higher a while ago so I’m not doing that well at the moment……should have sold the lot but as Peter says no one can predict the future

Can you read?

Not hoping for recovery. Praying for crash.

[Leemsip]

So SailorRob has a pretty good case I think when saying the balance sheet of these companies are amazing. Huge interest free loan from residents, which makes the whole business viable. Ive had a quick look at the annual report and couldnt agree more. $800m free $$. Nice. Low liabilities and boat loads of equity built on increasing valuations and new developments.

Times have changed though and we now have a housing market on the slide. I think the big question for OCA and the other retirement companies is whether they can be profitable without increasing valuations and a much lower development prog.

So here are the last 2 sets of accounts from OCA. See the valuation uplift - as per pg 61 of the annual report - thats all increases in fair value of property (incl new developments less costs of new developments).





Mar-22
Mar-21


Income
Revenue
184
143



Deferred mgmt fee
47
32



Valuation uplift
63.4
79.9



other
13.8
4.3



Total
308.2
259.2








Expenses
Employees
156.4
115.7



Finance costs
9.38
6.8



Depreciation
18.6
13.534



other
67.82
48.466



Total
252.2
184.5









Gross profit
56
74.7



tax
4.9
10.4



NPAT
51.1
64.3



So, Im not an expert here at all, but we should probably consider that this wont be around for the next few years. Any valuations will be down. New developments might add a bit but cost increase and value decrease on these as well.

This would bring the whole operation back close to break even at best and likely a small loss each year.

Some might argue that depreciation is non-cash and so doesnt count. I would say that this expense is pretty legit and should count, $18m depreciation on $2b of property seems fine, and they will have to spend this amount every year to keep the properties up to spec.

Interested to hear from the bulls on this super high level take.

[SailorRob]

So SailorRob has a pretty good case I think when saying the balance sheet of these companies are amazing. Huge interest free loan from residents, which makes the whole business viable. Ive had a quick look at the annual report and couldnt agree more. $800m free $$. Nice. Low liabilities and boat loads of equity built on increasing valuations and new developments.

Times have changed though and we now have a housing market on the slide. I think the big question for OCA and the other retirement companies is whether they can be profitable without increasing valuations and a much lower development prog.

So here are the last 2 sets of accounts from OCA. See the valuation uplift - as per pg 61 of the annual report - thats all increases in fair value of property (incl new developments less costs of new developments).





Mar-22
Mar-21


Income
Revenue
184
143



Deferred mgmt fee
47
32



Valuation uplift
63.4
79.9



other
13.8
4.3



Total
308.2
259.2








Expenses
Employees
156.4
115.7



Finance costs
9.38
6.8



Depreciation
18.6
13.534



other
67.82
48.466



Total
252.2
184.5









Gross profit
56
74.7



tax
4.9
10.4



NPAT
51.1
64.3



So, Im not an expert here at all, but we should probably consider that this wont be around for the next few years. Any valuations will be down. New developments might add a bit but cost increase and value decrease on these as well.

This would bring the whole operation back close to break even at best and likely a small loss each year.

Some might argue that depreciation is non-cash and so doesnt count. I would say that this expense is pretty legit and should count, $18m depreciation on $2b of property seems fine, and they will have to spend this amount every year to keep the properties up to spec.

Interested to hear from the bulls on this super high level take.

Actually more than $800 mil, well over 900.

Think of how low a return on assets they would need to generate to only break even.

Look back at my term deposit example.

[Leemsip]

Yeah, its a funny business. $800 or $900 or whatever sort of the same thing. Asset base is so massive that who cares about small losses in the P&L. You can keep building forever as the balance sheet just keeps growing and growing.

At some point though, these guys will have to run a profit on operations surely. I dont see how they can do it without jacking the fees. Can they do this?

Where would a dividend come from? Paid out of what?

[winner69]

Yeah, its a funny business. $800 or $900 or whatever sort of the same thing. Asset base is so massive that who cares about small losses in the P&L. You can keep building forever as the balance sheet just keeps growing and growing.

At some point though, these guys will have to run a profit on operations surely. I dont see how they can do it without jacking the fees. Can they do this?

Where would a dividend come from? Paid out of what?

The question really is where has the dividend come from? Paid out of what?

[SailorRob]

Yeah, its a funny business. $800 or $900 or whatever sort of the same thing. Asset base is so massive that who cares about small losses in the P&L. You can keep building forever as the balance sheet just keeps growing and growing.

At some point though, these guys will have to run a profit on operations surely. I dont see how they can do it without jacking the fees. Can they do this?

Where would a dividend come from? Paid out of what?

What's the percentage difference between 800 and 900 sport?

Funny business, how so?

[bull....]

Yeah, its a funny business. $800 or $900 or whatever sort of the same thing. Asset base is so massive that who cares about small losses in the P&L. You can keep building forever as the balance sheet just keeps growing and growing.

At some point though, these guys will have to run a profit on operations surely. I dont see how they can do it without jacking the fees. Can they do this?

Where would a dividend come from? Paid out of what?

as with all property developers .... leverage is great on the way up and destroys on the way down

[SailorRob]

This company needs to get with the program and start doing their job properly. Their job is to run the company and allocate capital in the best interest of the shareholders, NOT do what shareholders think should be done.

Like a doctors job is not to do what the patient thinks they should do or will keep the patient happy...

Cut the dividend NOW and start buying in the stock BIG time. Anyone care to do the math on what it will look like if that money, instead of being paid out for us to pay tax on, is used to buy these tangible assets at 27 cents on the dollar? Yes the stock would drop, that's a feature not a bug.

A lot of investors, particularly here, mistakenly believe that receiving dividends automatically makes them wealthier. Truth is that while dividends provide a useful source of cash flow (that some people need), they actually reduce the value of your shares. So, in reality, receiving dividends does not create new wealth, since you are essentially just receiving something you already had through your shares. Taking from one hand and then getting even less in the other.

This belief in the "dividend fallacy" is a common mistake made by people and it can be difficult (read impossible) to explain the concept to them. Companies like OCA choose to pay dividends without fully considering whether it is the best decision for the long term benefit of shareholders (which as above is their ONLY job). Dividend policies are usually established in advance and super rigid. Having a fixed payout ratio etc.. While these policies may be designed to provide investors with a sense of predictability and stability, they are not always be the best use of the company's capital..

Managements do this knowing that investors (and analysts) like things to be regular and predictable, and while understanding full well that dividends often have a special status in the eyes of investors due to their lack of understanding. Investors would interpret a dividend cut or even its elimination as a concern about the company’s future. This does not make much sense from the viewpoint of companies and their capital allocation. If management has a better opportunity to invest capital in a more attractive manner, it should prioritise that opportunity over paying dividends.

If OCA buys back its own shares at their actual value, it simply shifts ownership among shareholders without creating any new value. But if they back shares at a price much lower than their actual value, the value of the remaining shares goes way up, since the same total value is now distributed among fewer shares. This transfers wealth from the ignorant selling shareholders to those who retain their shares.

[ValueNZ]

This company needs to get with the program and start doing their job properly. Their job is to run the company and allocate capital in the best interest of the shareholders, NOT do what shareholders think should be done.

Like a doctors job is not to do what the patient thinks they should do or will keep the patient happy...

Cut the dividend NOW and start buying in the stock BIG time. Anyone care to do the math on what it will look like if that money, instead of being paid out for us to pay tax on, is used to buy these tangible assets at 27 cents on the dollar? Yes the stock would drop, that's a feature not a bug.

A lot of investors, particularly here, mistakenly believe that receiving dividends automatically makes them wealthier. Truth is that while dividends provide a useful source of cash flow (that some people need), they actually reduce the value of your shares. So, in reality, receiving dividends does not create new wealth, since you are essentially just receiving something you already had through your shares. Taking from one hand and then getting even less in the other.

This belief in the "dividend fallacy" is a common mistake made by people and it can be difficult (read impossible) to explain the concept to them. Companies like OCA choose to pay dividends without fully considering whether it is the best decision for the long term benefit of shareholders (which as above is their ONLY job). Dividend policies are usually established in advance and super rigid. Having a fixed payout ratio etc.. While these policies may be designed to provide investors with a sense of predictability and stability, they are not always be the best use of the company's capital..

Managements do this knowing that investors (and analysts) like things to be regular and predictable, and while understanding full well that dividends often have a special status in the eyes of investors due to their lack of understanding. Investors would interpret a dividend cut or even its elimination as a concern about the company’s future. This does not make much sense from the viewpoint of companies and their capital allocation. If management has a better opportunity to invest capital in a more attractive manner, it should prioritise that opportunity over paying dividends.

If OCA buys back its own shares at their actual value, it simply shifts ownership among shareholders without creating any new value. But if they back shares at a price much lower than their actual value, the value of the remaining shares goes way up, since the same total value is now distributed among fewer shares. This transfers wealth from the ignorant selling shareholders to those who retain their shares.
Tangible assets at 27 cents on the dollar? Are you calculating NTA differently?

Certainly I agree OCA needs to buyback shares instead of payout dividends, it makes sense when a stock is undervalued to do so.

[SailorRob]

Tangible assets at 27 cents on the dollar? Are you calculating NTA differently?

Certainly I agree OCA needs to buyback shares instead of payout dividends, it makes sense when a stock is undervalued to do so.

And the more undervalued the more sense. Pointless just shipping that cash out to shareholders to pay tax on when you can give it to the weak hands to get them out.

Yes, if you read this - https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post983973

I'm counting the 'float' as equity and to me it's even better. So you get that for 'free' as if it was your own asset.

So you command much more tangible asset than your own equity can provide, but at no cost.

[Leemsip]

I don't think they have any cash.... lots of assets but nothing to buy shares with.

Sailor, do you mean take some more debt out to do this? If so I'm intrigued from a risk management point of view why this is a good idea.

If not can you point to the cash on a balance sheet they have released lately. (Can't be the float as that is in the liability/payables column. The float is gone and they have used the cash to build stuff).

Hmmm funny old business this retirement business... possible that the accounts are too complex and I'm misunderstanding it.

Agree on the dividends! Madness to keep paying

[SailorRob]

I don't think they have any cash.... lots of assets but nothing to buy shares with.

Sailor, do you mean take some more debt out to do this? If so I'm intrigued from a risk management point of view why this is a good idea.

If not can you point to the cash on a balance sheet they have released lately. (Can't be the float as that is in the liability/payables column. The float is gone and they have used the cash to build stuff).

Hmmm funny old business this retirement business...

Agree on the dividends! Madness to keep paying


No, this specific example was to stop the dividend and use that cash, that would otherwise be paid out as dividend, to fund the buyback.

Agree the taking on more debt/risk management is more complex a question.

But one thing is for sure, they are still expanding and developing and building, so they are allocating capital to those activities. Would this cash generate a higher return going into buybacks? I'd have to say certainly.

[SailorRob]

I don't think they have any cash.... lots of assets but nothing to buy shares with.

Sailor, do you mean take some more debt out to do this? If so I'm intrigued from a risk management point of view why this is a good idea.

If not can you point to the cash on a balance sheet they have released lately. (Can't be the float as that is in the liability/payables column. The float is gone and they have used the cash to build stuff).

Hmmm funny old business this retirement business... possible that the accounts are too complex and I'm misunderstanding it.

Agree on the dividends! Madness to keep paying


Yeah and a lot of people will disagree with me on the dividend vs buyback and won't necessarily understand it all perfectly, and that's fine.

But ask yourselves what one Earth is going on when a company puts its hand out for EQUITY capital from shareholders while a the same time dishing EQUITY capital back out to them as a dividend.

Madness as you say. But they're more interested in being seen to be doing what is regarded as the right thing than actually doing the right thing.

[Leemsip]

Agree.... buy back would be amazing value. Why build at all at the current shareprice.

Still its a long game they are playing so maybe it does make sense

[SailorRob]

Agree.... buy back would be amazing value. Why build at all at the current shareprice.

Still its a long game they are playing so maybe it does make sense


Putting the buyback argument aside, the current share price should have no affect on their internal capital allocation decisions. They should build if they think that they will be getting a adequate return on the capital they employ.

Aside from the need to raise equity capital or buy back stock, the company should be completely agnostic about the share price, at least in the short term. If the share price is the market telling them that what they are doing is s*^&house then that is different.

[justakiwi]

You’re jumping the gun there a bit. Until they tell us otherwise, we have zero reason to believe they are planning a CR. In the meantime, it’s pretty pointless speculating.




But ask yourselves what one Earth is going on when a company puts its hand out for EQUITY capital from shareholders while a the same time dishing EQUITY capital back out to them as a dividend.

[SailorRob]

You’re jumping the gun there a bit. Until they tell us otherwise, we have zero reason to believe they are planning a CR. In the meantime, it’s pretty pointless speculating.

It is you that is jumping the gun.

I'm talking about the LAST cap raise.

I have recently stated on this forum multiple times that I very much doubt they are planning another one and if they did I would drop the stock like wet socks on a chicken.

[ValueNZ]

You’re jumping the gun there a bit. Until they tell us otherwise, we have zero reason to believe they are planning a CR. In the meantime, it’s pretty pointless speculating.
I didn't interpret that as OCA planning to to a CR, just a general statement about companies who choose to do that. A capital raise now would be a terrible time for OCA anyway with its share price so low.

[SailorRob]

I didn't interpret that as OCA planning to to a CR, just a general statement about companies who choose to do that. A capital raise now would be a terrible time for OCA anyway with its share price so low.


Yes that's right, general statement with OCA being one specific example seeing as this is the OCA thread.

Basically the entire retail offer was paid out in the same financial year as a dividend.

So they took in 20 million in the year ended March 22 in the retail offer and paid out $19.418 million in dividends that same year.

Of the total 100 million they took in (which cost 2.5 million to raise the money) they will pay out 70% of all that money between 2020 and this year. But told us it was for acquisitions.

Of the 100 million, so far since it was raised 25% has gone out as a dividend.

Madness.

[justakiwi]

Ok then. My bad. Apologies.


It is you that is jumping the gun.

I'm talking about the LAST cap raise.

I have recently stated on this forum multiple times that I very much doubt they are planning another one and if they did I would drop the stock like wet socks on a chicken.

[SailorRob]

What investors say when stocks are going up:

"I would love to buy more of what I own lower."

When stocks actually go lower: "No, I'm good."

Everyone loves a bargain until it's staring them in the face.

[Balance]

What investors say when stocks are going up:

"I would love to buy more of what I own lower."

When stocks actually go lower: "No, I'm good."

Everyone loves a bargain until it's staring them in the face.

Tell that to the shareholders of MFB, ATM, WHS, Lehman Bros etc etc etc etc etc.

One man's honey could be another man's poison.

[SailorRob]

Tell that to the shareholders of MFB, ATM, WHS, Lehman Bros etc etc etc etc etc.

One man's honey could be another man's poison.


Yes, yes.

That wasn't the point though.

Point was people saying they would love to buy more at lower prices as the price rises, but when it falls they do nothing.

In your examples this behavior would have saved them.

So telling that to the shareholders you mentioned would be pointless as they already knew what to do which was the correct action.

[Balance]

Yes, yes.

That wasn't the point though.

Point was people saying they would love to buy more at lower prices as the price rises, but when it falls they do nothing.

In your examples this behavior would have saved them.

So telling that to the shareholders you mentioned would be pointless as they already knew what to do which was the correct action.

Not true as you can see from the ATM thread - many jumped in and bought more (including one big player who admitted his health suffered due to the huge exposure he built up in ATM even as the sp kept falling).

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Milk-Corporation-Limited/page1805

In fact, those of us who dared to post warnings were roundly condemned and abused for having the audacity to question the credibility of the management and fundamentals of ATM.

Jury is obviously out on OCA and the RV stocks but I will make one observation about the credibility of the NTAs behind their valuations :

- NZ property market has fallen very sharply in the last 18 months but the RVs believe they are immune from valuation falls as seen with their reported results. Simply does not stand up to any kind of scrutiny.

I agree wholeheartedly however with you on this point - if the directors and management genuinely believe in their valuations and in creating shareholders' value, they must defer any new developments, stop paying dividends and use all available funds to buy back their shares.

Will they?

[SailorRob]

Not true as you can see from the ATM thread - many jumped in and bought more (including one big player who admitted his health suffered due to the huge exposure he built up in ATM even as the sp kept falling).

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Milk-Corporation-Limited/page1805

In fact, those of us who dared to post warnings were roundly condemned and abused for having the audacity to question the credibility of the management and fundamentals of ATM.

Jury is obviously out on OCA and the RV stocks but I will make one observation about the credibility of the NTAs behind their valuations :

- NZ property market has fallen very sharply in the last 18 months but the RVs believe they are immune from valuation falls as seen with their reported results. Simply does not stand up to any kind of scrutiny.

I agree wholeheartedly however with you on this point - if the directors and management genuinely believe in their valuations and in creating shareholders' value, they must defer any new developments, stop paying dividends and use all available funds to buy back their shares.

Will they?


Yes understood, you're quite right.

I agree that doesn't stand up to any scrutiny and NTA's have never had any credibility in my view. I know I often post about discount to NTA but the reality is that I look at the value of the assets as being directly related to the CASH they can generate and WHEN they can generate it. I also look to replacement cost as a secondary (as who cares what it costs to build assets that can't produce cash).

So we are not disagreeing on anything really.

The value of NZ property has changed very little, the price has changed a lot.

Any property in NZ (or any asset at all) that is used to generate cash through rental income can easily be valued (annual rent/2) / 8%. So for a rental stream of $1000 a week you can only pay $325,000 anything else is Bull*&^%, unless you lever it up with very low cost funds.

But OCA doesn't generate cash this way and doesn't fund the assets with equity.

The Jury is not out, the business model is phenomenal. Just finished reading up a report on a French company in the same sector - totally different model, no float. No good.

Without the float I would not touch OCA though it would still be an ok business.

[SailorRob]

Not true as you can see from the ATM thread - many jumped in and bought more (including one big player who admitted his health suffered due to the huge exposure he built up in ATM even as the sp kept falling).

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Milk-Corporation-Limited/page1805

In fact, those of us who dared to post warnings were roundly condemned and abused for having the audacity to question the credibility of the management and fundamentals of ATM.

Jury is obviously out on OCA and the RV stocks but I will make one observation about the credibility of the NTAs behind their valuations :

- NZ property market has fallen very sharply in the last 18 months but the RVs believe they are immune from valuation falls as seen with their reported results. Simply does not stand up to any kind of scrutiny.

I agree wholeheartedly however with you on this point - if the directors and management genuinely believe in their valuations and in creating shareholders' value, they must defer any new developments, stop paying dividends and use all available funds to buy back their shares.

Will they?


No. They will not.

[Balance]

No. They will not.


Which to me means the company is being run for the benefit of the directors and management - lots and lots of fees and salaries for eternity at shareholders’ expense.

Have a look at KPG if you want an example.

[SailorRob]

Which to me means the company is being run for the benefit of the directors and management - lots and lots of fees and salaries for eternity at shareholders’ expense.

Have a look at KPG if you want an example.


It will take a lot of fees for the directors who have massive skin in the game to recoup the money they put in at the equity raise and before.

Strongly disagree that this is the motive, while agreeing that with most companies this is true.

[Aaron]

Which to me means the company is being run for the benefit of the directors and management - lots and lots of fees and salaries for eternity at shareholders’ expense.

Have a look at KPG if you want an example.

So you reckon KPG has bottomed out?

I reckon .85cents might have been the low. About the same price it was 20 years ago.

[SailorRob]

So you reckon KPG has bottomed out?

I reckon .85cents might have been the low. About the same price it was 20 years ago.


Look at the last 10 years of cash flow statements, you'll soon see what it's worth.

[Balance]

Look at the last 10 years of cash flow statements, you'll soon see what it's worth.

KPG is run for the benefit of the directors and managers right from day 1.

I discussed this fact years ago with Ross Green and Richard Didsbury, the original managers, when they kept unleashing rights issue one after another (at discounts to NTA) whenever the sp trended 20% above NTA.

What they were doing was of course to build up the asset base and their management fees with zero heed of the interests of existing shareholders. They sold their management rights for hundreds of millions of dollars to Colonial who then, sold the rights back to the company for hundreds of millions of dollars! Internalising property management is what they termed it!

Something shareholders must watch very very carefully.

[SailorRob]

KPG is run for the benefit of the directors and managers right from day 1.

I discussed this fact years ago with Ross Green and Richard Didsbury, the original managers, when they kept unleashing rights issue one after another (at discounts to NTA) whenever the sp trended 20% above NTA.

What they were doing was of course to build up the asset base and their management fees with zero heed of the interests of existing shareholders. They sold their management rights for hundreds of millions of dollars to Colonial who then, sold the rights back to the company for hundreds of millions of dollars! Internalising property management is what they termed it!

Something shareholders must watch very very carefully.

Hardly need to watch carefully, it's bloody obvious. Just a casual glance is enough to see the reality.

[Balance]

Hardly need to watch carefully, it's bloody obvious. Just a casual glance is enough to see the reality.

And you are still so very confident of the directors and management of the RVs!?

I must admit I have my doubts.

[SailorRob]

And you are still so very confident of the directors and management of the RVs!?

I must admit I have my doubts.

Only because they have large portions of their net worth invested alongside us.

One of the directors has 40 million or so doesn't he?

You think he's taking any crap from management?

[Curly]

OCA and ARV share price has not altered with the SUM result. That would indicate to me that any down turn is already factored in to OCAs current SP. OCA March result to be announced 24 May.

[Maverick]

After the ARV newsletter and SUM`s sales report yesterday there's some new industry info that means a slight re-tweak OCAs my upcoming profit expectations.

Care profit- key adjustments;
This should be up due to increased occupancy ( ARV said nursing pressures have eased slightly allowing them to regain some quite reduced occupancy which was also experienced by RYM and OCA).
Kathryn - CFO said at HY1 that there's an extra $5/day/bed funding at the beginning of HY2.
ARV have now moved past the bulk of the Covid phase which surely must mean $$ savings.
I expect care profit to rise from $22.1 to $24.9m ( up 13%)

Village profit- key adjustments;
No changes needed for OCA`s profit engine, the DMF.
ARV have indicated prices and margins remain very healthy
Interest rate changes are negligible with OCAs debt being fixed ( as Ferg said, just under 3%)
SUM now takes much longer to complete sales- this needs unpacking further to compare with OCAs offerings...
While SUM had a sluggish 3 month sale period ( see chart over on the SUM thread) the preceding 3 months was excellent. So those combined 6 months - to match OCAs HY2 period- were actually up 8% up PCP.

Now let's break down expected OCA sales.

Care suites resale and new sales shouldn't be affected by house prices nor longer lead times- they are needs based and affordable to many without needing to sell the family home. They are far more dependent currently on finding staff to run them than HPI. This is something ARV say is getting slightly better.

Villa resales and new sales;
OCA only delivered 8 this year and their resales are always pretty small anyway (half yearly y around 28) so nothing material will result if sales are slower.

Apartments resales and new sales…This is the biggie;
I know that Christchurch - Bellevue is way behind from being delivered 2 weeks ago. Looking from the street, I estimate it's got another 4-6 months to go. I do note though that they have started their advertising for this site.
We know Hamilton was selling very slowly at 1HY but at the time Brent said things had turned a corner.
We also know OCA were getting good margins and were not considering dropping prices.
The delay of Christchurch and whatever stage Helier is at right now is immaterial to FY23 as far as I'm concerned there was never going to be any sales from these projects anyway. So it really comes down to how Hamilton / Tauranga and Eden (Auckland) are selling.
I have estimated 36 new apartment sales for this 2HY. Here is the sequence of HY sales over the last 5 HY periods to give this context. 44-11-44-48-28-36 .

Resales I think will be an easy 24. I have conservatively copied 1HY even though apartment churn has started on their new deliveries from 4-5 years ago. Here is the sequence of apartment resales in HY periods. 22-16-18-19-24-24

With these adjustments all woven in I get a FY23 underlying profit of $61.2m up 8% PCP ( EPS 8.5c).
If this profit is close then that's a PE of 8.5

While this is not a stunning profit lift, it was never going to be. The real rewards show up when The Helier starts selling down which should be happening now.

[Greekwatchdog]

After the ARV newsletter and SUM`s sales report yesterday there's some new industry info that means a slight re-tweak OCAs my upcoming profit expectations.

Care profit- key adjustments;
This should be up due to increased occupancy ( ARV said nursing pressures have eased slightly allowing them to regain some quite reduced occupancy which was also experienced by RYM and OCA).
Kathryn - CFO said at HY1 that there's an extra $5/day/bed funding at the beginning of HY2.
ARV have now moved past the bulk of the Covid phase which surely must mean $$ savings.
I expect care profit to rise from $22.1 to $24.9m ( up 13%)

Village profit- key adjustments;
No changes needed for OCA`s profit engine, the DMF.
ARV have indicated prices and margins remain very healthy
Interest rate changes are negligible with OCAs debt being fixed ( as Ferg said, just under 3%)
SUM now takes much longer to complete sales- this needs unpacking further to compare with OCAs offerings...
While SUM had a sluggish 3 month sale period ( see chart over on the SUM thread) the preceding 3 months was excellent. So those combined 6 months - to match OCAs HY2 period- were actually up 8% up PCP.

Now let's break down expected OCA sales.

Care suites resale and new sales shouldn't be affected by house prices nor longer lead times- they are needs based and affordable to many without needing to sell the family home. They are far more dependent currently on finding staff to run them than HPI. This is something ARV say is getting slightly better.

Villa resales and new sales;
OCA only delivered 8 this year and their resales are always pretty small anyway ( annually around 28) so nothing material will result if sales are slower.

Apartments resales and new sales…This is the biggie;
I know that Christchurch - Bellevue is way behind from being delivered 2 weeks ago. Looking from the street, I estimate it's got another 4-6 months to go. I do note though that they have started their advertising for this site.
We know Hamilton was selling very slowly at 1HY but at the time Brent said things had turned a corner.
We also know OCA were getting good margins and were not considering dropping prices.
The delay of Christchurch and whatever stage Helier is at right now is immaterial to FY23 as far as I'm concerned there was never going to be any sales from these projects anyway. So it really comes down to how Hamilton / Tauranga and Eden (Auckland) are selling.
I have estimated 36 new apartment sales for this 2HY. Here is the sequence of HY sales over the last 5 HY periods to give this context. 44-11-44-48-28-36 .

Resales I think will be an easy 24. I have conservatively copied 1HY even though apartment churn has started on their new deliveries from 4-5 years ago. Here is the sequence of apartment resales in HY periods. 22-16-18-19-24-24

With these adjustments all woven in I get a FY23 underlying profit of $61.2m up 8% PCP ( EPS 8.5c).
If this profit is close then that's a PE of 8.5

While this is not a stunning profit lift, it was never going to be. The real rewards show up when The Helier starts selling down which should be happening now.



Mav, thank you for taking time out to put your thoughts on FY 23. I have no real expectations myself and have always been looking forward to 2024 FY and beyond. Be interesting to see where Cash Flows and Debt are as that's where most of the Bears keep talking about. Build rates will also be of interest going forward to see if they target 300 or reduce this down.

[SailorRob]

After the ARV newsletter and SUM`s sales report yesterday there's some new industry info that means a slight re-tweak OCAs my upcoming profit expectations.

Care profit- key adjustments;
This should be up due to increased occupancy ( ARV said nursing pressures have eased slightly allowing them to regain some quite reduced occupancy which was also experienced by RYM and OCA).
Kathryn - CFO said at HY1 that there's an extra $5/day/bed funding at the beginning of HY2.
ARV have now moved past the bulk of the Covid phase which surely must mean $$ savings.
I expect care profit to rise from $22.1 to $24.9m ( up 13%)

Village profit- key adjustments;
No changes needed for OCA`s profit engine, the DMF.
ARV have indicated prices and margins remain very healthy
Interest rate changes are negligible with OCAs debt being fixed ( as Ferg said, just under 3%)
SUM now takes much longer to complete sales- this needs unpacking further to compare with OCAs offerings...
While SUM had a sluggish 3 month sale period ( see chart over on the SUM thread) the preceding 3 months was excellent. So those combined 6 months - to match OCAs HY2 period- were actually up 8% up PCP.

Now let's break down expected OCA sales.

Care suites resale and new sales shouldn't be affected by house prices nor longer lead times- they are needs based and affordable to many without needing to sell the family home. They are far more dependent currently on finding staff to run them than HPI. This is something ARV say is getting slightly better.

Villa resales and new sales;
OCA only delivered 8 this year and their resales are always pretty small anyway ( annually around 28) so nothing material will result if sales are slower.

Apartments resales and new sales…This is the biggie;
I know that Christchurch - Bellevue is way behind from being delivered 2 weeks ago. Looking from the street, I estimate it's got another 4-6 months to go. I do note though that they have started their advertising for this site.
We know Hamilton was selling very slowly at 1HY but at the time Brent said things had turned a corner.
We also know OCA were getting good margins and were not considering dropping prices.
The delay of Christchurch and whatever stage Helier is at right now is immaterial to FY23 as far as I'm concerned there was never going to be any sales from these projects anyway. So it really comes down to how Hamilton / Tauranga and Eden (Auckland) are selling.
I have estimated 36 new apartment sales for this 2HY. Here is the sequence of HY sales over the last 5 HY periods to give this context. 44-11-44-48-28-36 .

Resales I think will be an easy 24. I have conservatively copied 1HY even though apartment churn has started on their new deliveries from 4-5 years ago. Here is the sequence of apartment resales in HY periods. 22-16-18-19-24-24

With these adjustments all woven in I get a FY23 underlying profit of $61.2m up 8% PCP ( EPS 8.5c).
If this profit is close then that's a PE of 8.5

While this is not a stunning profit lift, it was never going to be. The real rewards show up when The Helier starts selling down which should be happening now.



Thanks for the detailed update. Any reason you forecast to the tenth of a million, like care profit to 24.9, not 25? Seems overly precise.

[Maverick]

Haha...You're right ! Just copied it straight from the sheets. Let me round the underlying too ..$61m

[SailorRob]

Haha...You're right ! Just copied it straight from the sheets. Let me round the underlying too ..$61m

No that's fair, I was just wondering what your process was.

I'm surprised there hasn't been any insider nibbling actually.

[Balance]

Met a valuer today who specialises in valuing units in retirement villages.

Must admit that the methodology & formula he uses for valuing units are heck of a lot more complicated and involved than I expected!

Actuarial calculations form a large part of the valuations.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks for the detailed update. Any reason you forecast to the tenth of a million, like care profit to 24.9, not 25? Seems overly precise.

Mav is a very decent bloke who graciously shares his analysis with the rest of the internet connected world, demonstrating his intense insights like few here or elsewhere have, or would bother to have researched, even though as investors they probably should have. My advice to him would be to save his numbers for an Oasis and let the great unwashed dwell on the macro story, which is generally quite insightful even without the precise detail.

Thanks Mav, for sharing here, as you do, but don't need to.

[Baa_Baa]

Actuarial calculations form a large part of the valuations.

Now there you go. There is a difference between generic property REITS and retirement property, although they look very similar at first glance. SailorRob has graciously opened the pandora's box by alluding to "the float", which is worthwhile considering deeply, in terms of the integrity and sustainability of the RV business. No other sector, reliant on property investing/development, has this, that I'm aware of. Such is the brilliance of the RYM founders who figured it out .. which others have copied. It's a brilliant model. It lends itself to actuarial valuation, and diminishes the value of traditional property valuations, despite all the RV's still using that assets based approach to valuation.

[Fortunecookie]

Now there you go. There is a difference between generic property REITS and retirement property, although they look very similar at first glance. SailorRob has graciously opened the pandora's box by alluding to "the float", which is worthwhile considering deeply, in terms of the integrity and sustainability of the RV business. No other sector, reliant on property investing/development, has this, that I'm aware of. Such is the brilliance of the RYM founders who figured it out .. which others have copied. It's a brilliant model. It lends itself to actuarial valuation, and diminishes the value of traditional property valuations, despite all the RV's still using that assets based approach to valuation.

Actually there is. The funeral business.
They have investment managers to manage the float. In some indirect way it is a property management/development business. Similar to RV as they rely on leverage.

I think airlines to a degree. They received prepayments upfronts and credits.

[Rawz]

.. My advice to him would be to save his numbers for an Oasis and let the great unwashed dwell on the macro story, which is generally quite insightful even without the precise detail.

Thanks Mav, for sharing here, as you do, but don't need to.

theres many on sharetrader who dont post, maybe cant be bothered, maybe dont have the courage... Better for all sharetraders if posts are shared with the entire community rather than a small group... even if away from this Oasis it attracts the flies there is still benefit to many out here in the wilderness

[Fortunecookie]

theres many on sharetrader who dont post, maybe cant be bothered, maybe dont have the courage... Better for all sharetraders if posts are shared with the entire community rather than a small group... even if away from this Oasis it attracts the flies there is still benefit to many out here in the wilderness

I'm a relatively new member. It's exactly that. Nothing to lose and more to gain by having a discussion.

[percy]

theres many on sharetrader who dont post, maybe cant be bothered, maybe dont have the courage... Better for all sharetraders if posts are shared with the entire community rather than a small group... even if away from this Oasis it attracts the flies there is still benefit to many out here in the wilderness

Yes there are a great number of people who read Sharetrader who do not post.
There is also a number of former Sharetrader members who no longer post.
I can not speak for all of them,but only for myself and a couple of friends.
Trolls,and rude vile negative posts,do nothing for the site.Others sharing their political views ruin a lot of threads.
I have often spent time doing research and looked to post and decided why bother.
So I do not post,however I share it with a wide circle of investors.This has resulted in them joining me in further research,which leads to better investing results.
Therefore if we want a better site ,we need people to put more time and effort into their posts,and have discussions rather than rude vile hate posts.
Perhaps more effort is required from moderators.?

[Leemsip]

Good call Percy. Gets pretty personal on here from time to time which detracts form the value. I just want to see what others are buying or selling and what the rationale is, so I can make my own mind up.

[Entrep]

Perhaps more effort is required from moderators.?

This site has mods?

[bull....]

lower bollinger looking good still

[Balance]

Heading towards 70c.

Is that a CR sounding in the background?

[Greekwatchdog]

Heading towards 70c.

Is that a CR sounding in the background?

I am positive you like reading your own dribble just like the other B. Go do some real research and explain without you using the same reasons you do as you have no foundation apart from speculating recycled garbage.

[nztx]

I am positive you like reading your own dribble just like the other B. Go do some real research and explain without you using the same reasons you do as you have no foundation apart from speculating recycled garbage.


55c in no time after Cap Raise ? ;)

Financiers might be getting Lender's indigestion on Revaluation Cook Ups (or lack thereof)

Who's next in line to plumb for some extra coin ?

Have a read of Chris Lee's newsletter today ..

[Greekwatchdog]

55c in no time after Cap Raise ? ;)

Financiers might be getting Lender's indigestion on Revaluation Cook Ups (or lack thereof)

Who's next in line to plumb for some extra coin ?

Have a read of Chris Lee's newsletter today ..

Yeah read it and seriously you lot need to do some real research, seriously $0.55? I will be all in.

[bull....]

sailors got his big buy order in at 63c to average his total holding down

[nztx]

Yeah read it and seriously you lot need to do some real research, seriously $0.55? I will be all in.


How much external debt would it be prudent to wipe out ?

Nothing like a free shareholder loan, but probably won't help with Imputation credits or the taxman still
grabbing a usual chomp of the pie assuming the pie is still sitting high enough ..

[SailorRob]

55c in no time after Cap Raise ? ;)

Financiers might be getting Lender's indigestion on Revaluation Cook Ups (or lack thereof)

Who's next in line to plumb for some extra coin ?

Have a read of Chris Lee's newsletter today ..

Isn't he the con artist that I exposed? Still waiting to hear back from him regarding his market timing track record.

Taking longer to get together than Bulls.

[bull....]

Isn't he the con artist that I exposed? Still waiting to hear back from him regarding his market timing track record.

Taking longer to get together than Bulls.

yes he has a vested interest in telling the world of his track record , being in that line of work. maybe has to much eggs in oca ?

[Balance]

I am positive you like reading your own dribble just like the other B. Go do some real research and explain without you using the same reasons you do as you have no foundation apart from speculating recycled garbage.

Chill, Greekwatchdog. You are starting to sound like the Ryman posters who became aggro with the speculation and expectation of a CR as its sp fell.

One prize idiot, panda-nz, even posted that Ryman should in fact load up with more debt and did a share buyback!

OCA’s sp is following the same pattern as Ryman - attempts by the sp to recover are taken advantage of by some players to sell down and out.

Looks to me like a CR in the offing.

In any case, OCA reports next month so it will become clear by then.

We good?

[mfd]

It's strange that all this cap raise and debt talk occurs primarily on OCA's thread, when they were the ones locking in long term debt at 2-3% and raising equity in 2020-21. Meanwhile, the threads of other companies with less foresight and preparation are barely touched.

[Greekwatchdog]

Chill, Greekwatchdog. You are starting to sound like the Ryman posters who became aggro with the speculation and expectation of a CR as its sp fell.

OCA’s sp is following the same pattern as Ryman - attempts by the sp to recover are taken advantage of by some players to sell down and out.

Looks to me like a CR in the offing.

Hardly Balance. RYM had no choice and was easy to see coming. OCA doesn't have too. Next ....May 24!!!!

[bull....]

2022 annual report says 10 mil cash to service 400 mil debt :scared:

if they6 do a 400 mil cap raise take the shares outstanding over 1 billion :scared:

would that mean a div going forward of .00006c per share ?

[Balance]

2022 annual report says 10 mil cash to service 400 mil debt :scared:

if they6 do a 400 mil cap raise take the shares outstanding over 1 billion :scared:

would that mean a div going forward of .00006c per share ?

Now that is GARBAGE.

[nztx]

2022 annual report says 10 mil cash to service 400 mil debt :scared:

if they6 do a 400 mil cap raise take the shares outstanding over 1 billion :scared:

would that mean a div going forward of .00006c per share ?


Asset revaluations if they head south might put pay to dividend

that is what dividends have been paid from across the sector in most cases ..

[JeffW]

I'd personally rather they didn't declare unimputed dividends - the only beneficiary of unimputed dividends is the taxman

[SailorRob]

Chill, Greekwatchdog. You are starting to sound like the Ryman posters who became aggro with the speculation and expectation of a CR as its sp fell.

One prize idiot, panda-nz, even posted that Ryman should in fact load up with more debt and did a share buyback!

OCA’s sp is following the same pattern as Ryman - attempts by the sp to recover are taken advantage of by some players to sell down and out.

Looks to me like a CR in the offing.

In any case, OCA reports next month so it will become clear by then.

We good?

Share price dropping, must need a CR...

Great analysis there Balance, well done. Any other insights?

[SailorRob]

Mavericks numbers must be a fair bit off if Oceania need to raise capital.

How about Balance gives us his rundown of the upcoming earnings and cash flows and then relates the numbers he gives to why and when they will need to raise capital.

Extremely unbalanced, a clear fraud of the forum.

[Balance]

Share price dropping, must need a CR...

Great analysis there Balance, well done. Any other insights?

Posters know me very well on this forum and I make & stand by my calls, based on fundamental assessment and share price dynamics.

Let’s see what the next 4 weeks bring with OCA, shall we?

[SailorRob]

Posters know me very well on this forum and I make & stand by my calls, based on fundamental assessment and share price dynamics.

Let’s see what the next 4 weeks bring with OCA, shall we?

Why don't we stop messing about mate and put a bet on it. Name your price.

You really standing behind your call?

[justakiwi]

You two need to "get a room."


Posters know me very well on this forum and I make & stand by my calls, based on fundamental assessment and share price dynamics.

Let’s see what the next 4 weeks bring with OCA, shall we?


Why don't we stop messing about mate and put a bet on it. Name your price.

You really standing behind your call?

[Balance]

Why don't we stop messing about mate and put a bet on it. Name your price.

You really standing behind your call?

I don’t deal with frauds.

[Baa_Baa]

Mavericks numbers must be a fair bit off if Oceania need to raise capital.

How about Balance gives us his rundown of the upcoming earnings and cash flows and then relates the numbers he gives to why and when they will need to raise capital.

Extremely unbalanced, a clear fraud of the forum.

The reason this thread has gone to the dogs is, imo because of the conflict between trading and investing, in OCA. But the thing that will unite us again is a SP that plumbs the depths of capitulation then turns, and then we'll all be happy to help some unfortunate distressed seller by buying their shares, regardless of our investing/trading motivations. Cruel? Well yes I suppose it is, but both trading and investing are very selfishly motivated, we all rely on someone to sell to us at a price we think is going to serve up value or opportunity.

[peat]

Your logic with the share price is astounding. I would say that the lower it goes the obvious conclusion would be the less likely a CR would be. That would go way over your head though I guess.


while acknowledging that cash raising is less effective when share prices are lower, that doesn't make it less logical. I'm sure Ryman were spewing having to raise cash after their share price fell but they still had to do it.

Personally I don't think OCA will raise cash imminently, but if it is necessary or considered to be then a low share price wont prevent it from happening.

[SailorRob]

while acknowledging that cash raising is less effective when share prices are lower, that doesn't make it less logical. I'm sure Ryman were spewing having to raise cash after their share price fell but they still had to do it.

Personally I don't think OCA will raise cash imminently, but if it is necessary or considered to be then a low share price wont prevent it from happening.

Of course it does. By definition.

Certainly does not mean that they won't, I agree a low share price won't prevent it.

But by the definition of the word it is less logical. If the need for capital was identical under 2 different share price scenarios then the lower one would be less logical than the higher.

At some point it would be illogical.

[peat]

If the need for capital was identical under 2 different share price scenarios then the lower one would be less logical than the higher.

At some point it would be illogical.

price one factor, time another.......

[whatsup]

Q, Is a C R priced in ( yet ? ) !!

[BlackPeter]

Q, Is a C R priced in ( yet ? ) !!

Great question.

If we look at the relative SP development of OCA (didn't had a CR - blue line) and RYM (had already a CR - yellow line), than both are highly correlated and have basically the same endpoint. Given that RYM had this CR already (i.e. clearly priced in) and OCA did not ... if everything else is equal, the markets clearly price in an OCA CR.

14538

Meaning - if there is no CR (and I would not know, why they need one - not aware of them having USD debts with funny conditions, do they?), than OCA is clearly currently under priced.

Looks like the wide spread down ramping and fear mongering might have created a great buying opportunity :t_up: !

[percy]

When stocks are low in their cycle, shares move from weak hands to strong hands. Strong hands are accumulating shares; weak hands are still liquidating losing positions.

[bull....]

Great question.

If we look at the relative SP development of OCA (didn't had a CR - blue line) and RYM (had already a CR - yellow line), than both are highly correlated and have basically the same endpoint. Given that RYM had this CR already (i.e. clearly priced in) and OCA did not ... if everything else is equal, the markets clearly price in an OCA CR.

14538

Meaning - if there is no CR (and I would not know, why they need one - not aware of them having USD debts with funny conditions, do they?), than OCA is clearly currently under priced.

Looks like the wide spread down ramping and fear mongering might have created a great buying opportunity :t_up: !

lol if you overlay sum and arv and oca and rym they probably all project the same trajectory which has nothing to do with crap raising its just a reflection of sector trend

if oca do a cap raise at 40c say price will fall to reflect that plain and simple , anyway it looks like people want to own arv instead of oca if you look at the rise and fall of arv / oca last week

[Balance]

Had a chat with a property conveyancing lawyer (based in double grammar zone Auckland) this morning who does a lot of work for retirees selling their homes to move into retirement villages.

I asked her about her thoughts about why the RVs stocks are struggling so badly.

She said that work has dried up in the conveyancing space in the last 6 months as retirees are unable to get the (high) home prices they need to buy/move into the RVs.

RV unit prices are going to have to come down to meet market unless property prices go up (highly unlikely).

[winner69]

Had a chat with a property conveyancing lawyer (based in double grammar zone Auckland) this morning who does a lot of work for retirees selling their homes to move into retirement villages.

I asked her about her thoughts about why the RVs stocks are struggling so badly.

She said that work has dried up in the conveyancing space in the last 6 months as retirees are unable to get the (high) home prices they need to buy/move into the RVs.

RV unit prices are going to have to come down to meet market unless property prices go up (highly unlikely).

That’s an interesting insight Balance

Bit at odds with what is said by the retirement sector but then you wouldn’t expect them to come out and say big discounts are needed.

Cheers

[nztx]

That’s an interesting insight Balance

Bit at odds with what is said by the retirement sector but then you wouldn’t expect them to come out and say big discounts are needed.

Cheers



How many revisited revaluations coming up soon ? :)

shakey dividend territory might be coming up soon to the eager awaiting up and down the land :)


As old Granny used to say .. "What goes up can come crashing down"




----


Incoming Sheep Pellets detected:


"Stop posting your rubbish on this thread. Try adding some value for a change." Baa Baa

[BlackPeter]

lol if you overlay sum and arv and oca and rym they probably all project the same trajectory which has nothing to do with crap raising its just a reflection of sector trend

if oca do a cap raise at 40c say price will fall to reflect that plain and simple , anyway it looks like people want to own arv instead of oca if you look at the rise and fall of arv / oca last week

Interesting statement. While you might love the brown smelly stuff - this is usually not what companies are rising :p ! Freudian mistake?

Anyway - you can see as well in the chart that RYM SP went further down during its actual cap raise and bounced back, so - sure, you are right, OCA would short time go down further as well and bounce back.

Try to understand the chart, even if the timeframe might be beyond your short traders attention span ... and maybe try to talk in future less of the stuff you claim companies are rising.

You must love Freud - great psychologist!

[bull....]

Interesting statement. While you might love the brown smelly stuff - this is usually not what companies are rising :p ! Freudian mistake?

Anyway - you can see as well in the chart that RYM SP went further down during its actual cap raise and bounced back, so - sure, you are right, OCA would short time go down further as well and bounce back.

Try to understand the chart, even if the timeframe might be beyond your short traders attention span ... and maybe try to talk in future less of the stuff you claim companies are rising.

You must love Freud - great psychologist!

any comparison of rym duriing cap raise is worthless , it all smelt of the brown stuff the way the price was behaving

[BlackPeter]

any comparison of rym duriing cap raise is worthless , it all smelt of the brown stuff the way the price was behaving

Well, isn't it what you guys are trying to tell us about OCA as well? Which means the comparison is highly relevant ... for anybody who believes (for whatever reason) that OCA might need more money now.

For everybody else is OCA clearly a low price - high value game.

[bull....]

here's a picture for the cap raising prospectus


14539

[winner69]

"……………………….

[bottomfeeder]

Rather than a rights CR, which will bring the SP down. ( No way they would do it at 40 to 50 cents, as the above scaremongers will want you to believe.) Bringing the SP down would still stuff up their debt to market cap percentage. I think they will issue shares of $50 mill to several of the largest shareholders at 65cents. Just enough to help the cashflow, but not enough to upset the SP too much. Combined with deferring the dividend and selling some surplus property, will put them up where they belong (in 12 months time)

[bull....]

Rather than a rights CR, which will bring the SP down. ( No way they would do it at 40 to 50 cents, as the above scaremongers will want you to believe.) Bringing the SP down would still stuff up their debt to equity percentage. I think they will issue shares of $50 mill to several of the largest shareholders at 65cents. Just enough to help the cashflow, but not enough to upset the SP too much. Combined with deferring the dividend and selling some surplus property, will put them up where they belong (in 12 months time)


there debt to underlying ebitda is high ... really reliant on those sales to generate cashflow to service the debt load is how i see it and like i said yesterday to which balance said garbage only 10 m in the bank :scared:

[Balance]

there debt to underlying ebitda is high ... really reliant on those sales to generate cashflow to service the debt load is how i see it and like i said yesterday to which balance said garbage only 10 m in the bank :scared:


2022 annual report says 10 mil cash to service 400 mil debt :scared:

if they6 do a 400 mil cap raise take the shares outstanding over 1 billion :scared:

would that mean a div going forward of .00006c per share ?

Garbage and BS from Bull ....

[Greekwatchdog]

Garbage and BS from Bull ....

I agree with you Balance, shock horror.

Hey Bull I have told you before go use your 12 screens and do some real study on the OCA business. You will learn something about the business instead of spouting Bull ****e..

[SailorRob]

He come on guys, give the Bull a break.

Someone who can make money off any chart any time anywhere, while reinventing the English language at the same time is to be revered, not insulted.

[Baa_Baa]

Agreed on the emoticons, however to me they seem to present as gormless.

Ha ha, "gormless", is such an expressive insightful term. Thanks SR and JAK, I'm just sick and tired of the irritating trolls who add nothing meaningful or useful to the discussion and degrade the value of Sharetrader as a discussion group. They have no idea about the rich history of Sharetrader, or the subject matter which is most irritating, that has hosted brilliant minds over many years, with exceptionally insightful and informed contributions but they sully it with utter rubbish in the name of satire and innuendo, which adds no value to anyone. If I was a Mod, well, lucky for them I'm not.

[bull....]

there debt to underlying ebitda is high ... really reliant on those sales to generate cashflow to service the debt load is how i see it and like i said yesterday to which balance said garbage only 10 m in the bank :scared:

obviously balance and company think my statement is garbage but cannot provide any reasoned argument why it is

[Balance]

obviously balance and company think my statement is garbage but cannot provide any reasoned argument why it is

Which letter of the word GARBAGE do you not get?


2022 annual report says 10 mil cash to service 400 mil debt :scared:

if they6 do a 400 mil cap raise take the shares outstanding over 1 billion :scared:

would that mean a div going forward of .00006c per share ?

[BlackPeter]

obviously balance and company think my statement is garbage but cannot provide any reasoned argument why it is

Just wondering - did you read note 4.4 of the annual report before making your statement? Only roughly 1% of the $380m borrowings are "current", the reminder is not. So - why would they need more cash to cover the "current" $3.2 m in liabilities?

[Balance]

Just wondering - did you read note 4.4 of the annual report before making your statement? Only roughly 1% of the $380m borrowings are "current", the reminder is not. So - why would they need more cash to cover the "current" $3.2 m in liabilities?

Financials as at 30 Sept 2022 :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/402826/384012.pdf

Note 4.3 Bank development facility $265m
Drawn $165m
Undrawn & Available (subject to no breach of covenants 'a' to 'd') $100m

Note 5.3 Development commitment $160m

Let that sink in first.

More later.

[SailorRob]

When stocks are low in their cycle, shares move from weak hands to strong hands. Strong hands are accumulating shares; weak hands are still liquidating losing positions.



best put the orders in for HMY & MFB on Monday using that logic, you reckon ? :)





Incoming Sheep Pellets detected:


i see what you said went straight over the heads of those very clever folks who commented afterwards



I think percy was talking about actual businesses, not frauds. A cycle goes up and down... The examples the brains trust used are just straight down...

There is no cycle.

[bull....]

Just wondering - did you read note 4.4 of the annual report before making your statement? Only roughly 1% of the $380m borrowings are "current", the reminder is not. So - why would they need more cash to cover the "current" $3.2 m in liabilities?

we are talking total debt , anyway read the arv announcement on ther bank facility announcement and you will see the banks gave them more headroom on there debt to ebitda for a few more period's




now you can see why people selling oca last week and going into arv in the last week
arv up 5%
oca down 5%

oca have to do similar or raise cash in my mind and it all ties in with for-bar saying all the rv will now slow development and pay down debt

[Maverick]

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”
Joseph Goebbels.


I'm not saying anyone here is lying but you get my point

After a month of this capital raising fear thing being tossed around relentlessly it is starting to feel like fact…just maybe it actually is. I thought it was time to absolutely put this to bed , for my mind at least, and do some real work to prove whether this is actually a thing or not.

I've made a spreadsheet that draws from my main work. My main body of work has evolved over 5 yrs now and incorporates every scrap of information out there supplemented with countless site visits, blah blah. These s/sheets and projections have now become a very reliable source of everything OCA to draw from meaning they can be trusted on for exercises like this.

It isn't easy using OCAs own published cashflow numbers over the years as they too have evolved making their reporting unsuitable to simply "plug and play" YOY. Plus the main point of this exercise requires adding accurate forecasting of sales -rates and values

My simple cash flow (HY) set up is as follows;


add-new sales and resales ORAs
add-all other cash incomes (DHB fees , PAC fees, village fees, their school income etc)
less- all cash expenses ( wages, maintenance etc)



less-old ORA payouts
less-finance costs
less-Dividends
less-Capex

Note: to keep it simple I have not included;
-New loans,
-Bond issues,
-Acquisitions of other businesses or paddocks,
-Buy backs- which they used to do but have completed now.

Key assumptions looking ahead;
-New deliveries now take 4 x HY to sell down.( Used to be 3)
-Average Helier price assumed is $2.1m. The other deliveries are known.
-Helier does actually welcome in residents this HY.
-Capex will maintain at $80m/HY.

This is a simple graph but in my mind accurate projection of what OCA needs as cash to keep doing its building program and existing operations at its current level. These workings do not consider any future acquisitions or capital changes which are obviously discretionary.

The graph is pasted below .

It is clear that in 1hy24 ( the period we are currently in) the cashflow goes to neutral for the very first time, and holds there. As Brent stated , we are in about peak OCA debt now and the behemoth Helier will finally reverse the cash flow drain it has been for so long now.( not exactly his words but that's the jist)

For me, it is a clear answer that OCA does NOT need to raise capital for the foreseeable future unless it intends going on a buying spree.

It appears the CFO and her team have done a great job that these numbers work out to almost perfection for their current ambitions.
It also demonstrates, as we have now experienced , just how slow and capital intensive brownfield and apartment building really is to get to the pay back phase.
Also on a positive note, it demonstrates that should OCA stop its $80m capex/HY program they would be rolling in surplus cash henceforth.
More clear good news is that we are at the cash flow inflection point.
( also in my workings , but not shown here , underlying profit also shoots up too this HY onwards).

So as far as I'm concerned , OCA has managed their cash flow very well and there will be no capital raise needed.





14545

[winner69]

Mav. good work. Admire people who love doing this sort of work. Keep at it

That is an incredible turnaround / change in fortunes you paint a picture off

Hope it all turns out that way

[Maverick]

Mav. good work. Admire people who love doing this sort of work. Keep at it

That is an incredible turnaround / change in fortunes you paint a picture off

Hope it all turns out that way
I really appreciate that Winner coming from you. Yes I do love doing this kind of work but crickey it takes a very large effort.

Some do wonder why I do share this stuff here, which I would like to comment on.
-Firstly it motivates my full effort as others will quickly spot faults if I'm tardy or half arse with my research.
-Then the other reason is this is OUR community and it will only thrive if we all contribute GOOD value where we can in our own areas of expertise.
- ah yes...People only really watch the share price anyway so this stuff isn't really that helpful to most folk anyway...haha ...

I am super grateful for the many reports and links from friends here behind the scenes and it is respect for them that I publicly table my work rather than being exclusive through private messages( although that does go on of course - as it should).
So thanks to all you folk who send me your stuff. Its very helpful and I really appreciate it.

[percy]

Yes great Mav shares his work with us.

[850man]

Yes great Mav shares his work with us.

I second that. Mav has skills here that I don't have so I really appreciate this type of analysis - well explained too. Thanks Mav :t_up:

[RupertBear]

Yes great Mav shares his work with us.

I agree, very generous to share his hours of work with us, much appreciated :)

[Blue Skies]

Yes great Mav shares his work with us.


Add my thanks to Mav for this, so generous to share this analysis with us & very encouraging.

[Beau]

Thanks yet again Mav for putting in time and for sharing very much appreciated

[Greekwatchdog]

Well done Mav for your careful explanation, hopefully this answers the people on here who have been playing the CR tune for sometime.

However in a galaxy far far away I am sure they will dream up more Balanced Bull.

[Curly]

Yeah thanks for the reality check Mav.
You’re a legend. Hope you have been topping up.

[SailorRob]

Balance, awful quite there squire?

Great points Mav,

Let's assume that things are a little tighter than we think, please examine the math behind the decision to continue capex at circa 80 mil and have to raise capital at current equity prices to do so, vs cutting back on capex until cash becomes available.

To the shysters who've been pushing the capital raise narrative, you need to do a little more work to show us how you come to your conclusion, it's not just a matter of looking at a share price chart...

To anyone who can go through the cash flow statements and forecast future net flows based on actual facts that we have in hand now as well as conservative assumptions that you can show your working for, and via this work you can conclude that a CR is necessary, then you may get some respect.

But you can't.

Goebbels eh, I always thought that quote was Arderns.

[Cabinet]

And another 'thank you' from me, I have learnt so much from your posts Mav. Very grateful.

[Rawz]

Notice Bull and Balance gone quiet lol

[SailorRob]

Notice Bull and Balance gone quiet lol

A little out of their depth I'd imagine.

[limmy]

Thanks Mav. for your contribution to our community.

[Balance]

Mav can do all the analysis with all the assumptions - the logical and market sense reason behind the steep sp fall of OCA is what he has missed.

Not that long before we find out, one way or the other.

[Greekwatchdog]

Mav can do all the analysis with all the assumptions - the logical and market sense reason behind the steep sp fall of OCA is what he has missed.

Not that long before we find out, one way or the other.

Its gone down with the rest of the sector, Mav and others like my self are aware of this re Housing market correction.

What he has given you is reasons why OCA don't need to raise cash re C.R. and he is right.

OCA can't control the market they control their business. You and a number of others have continued to play your C.R tune without going into the depth and analysis to prove it.

Your very Egotistical when you get something right and when your wrong if you will do the opposite be show some courage and say you guys were right. May 24 we will find out.

[Curly]

Its gone down with the rest of the sector, Mav and others like my self are aware of this re Housing market correction.

What he has given you is reasons why OCA don't need to raise cash re C.R. and he is right.

OCA can't control the market they control their business. You and a number of others have continued to play your C.R tune without going into the depth and analysis to prove it.

Your very Egotistical when you get something right and when your wrong if you will do the opposite be show some courage and say you guys were right. May 24 we will find out.
Beagle was highly skilled in this area to. Then once he had backed the truck up it becomes the best thing around. Await May 24 with interest. SP may rally slightly between now and then in anticipation.

[bull....]

love mav's work and he has been quite accurate at times forecasting results but have to agree with balance his one flaw was failing to take into account macro conditions and add these into his forecasts a yr ago ... obviously he doesnt listen to bull :p

as for cap raising i gave my reasons before mav's post and im not saying shortly im saying at some time if macro conditions persist. this is different to balance view ... i think

[SailorRob]

Once there were two people, Mav and Bull,
Their friendship strong, their bond so full,
But a year ago, Bull saw the signs,
Economic trouble, looming in lines.

He warned his friend,"Take heed, my dear,
The markets shaky, and risks are near."
But Mav brushed it off, with a wave of his hand,
"I know better, Bull, I've got a plan."

But time passed on, and Bull was right,
The economy stumbled, a terrible sight,
Mav's investments faltered, his wealth took a hit,
He wished he had listened, to Bull's warning bit.

And Mav learned a lesson, he won't forget,
To listen to friends, and not just to bet,
For advice and guidance, can go a long way,
In avoiding mistakes, and making a brighter day.

[X-men]

What a great kid bedtime story..love it...

U should publish it!!

[Balance]

On Sharetrader's forums, the posters gather,
To discuss stocks and share their thoughts with each other.
Some are bullish, some are bearish,
But all are passionate, that's for sure.

Yet there are some who cannot stand,
When others post views that are contrary,
They blame them for their poor stock performances,
As if they had some control over market circumstances.

They call them trolls, and they rant and rave,
As if negativity alone could cause a stock to cave.
But markets are fickle, they rise and fall,
And blaming others won't solve the problem at all.

Instead, they should listen and learn,
To the views that others have to discern.
For in the diversity of opinion lies the truth,
And only by considering it can they find their proof.

So let them post their negative views,
And let the bulls and bears debate what to choose.
For in the end, it's the market that decides!

[SailorRob]

On Sharetrader's forums, the posters gather,
To discuss stocks and share their thoughts with each other.
Some are bullish, some are bearish,
But all are passionate, that's for sure.

Yet there are some who cannot stand,
When others post views that are contrary,
They blame them for their poor stock performances,
As if they had some control over market circumstances.

They call them trolls, and they rant and rave,
As if negativity alone could cause a stock to cave.
But markets are fickle, they rise and fall,
And blaming others won't solve the problem at all.

Instead, they should listen and learn,
To the views that others have to discern.
For in the diversity of opinion lies the truth,
And only by considering it can they find their proof.

So let them post their negative views,
And let the bulls and bears debate what to choose.
For in the end, it's the market that decides!


Your poem was pretty crap so I rewrote it for you.


On Sharetrader's forums, posters do gather,
To share thoughts on stocks and discuss with each other.
Some are bullish, some are bearish, it's true,
But passion for trading is what they pursue.

Yet some can't stand views that differ from their own,
And blame them for market drops, their anger is shown.
They call them trolls, and they shout and rave,
As if one person's negativity could cause a stock to cave.

But markets are fickle, they rise and they fall,
Blaming others won't help, not one bit at all.
Instead, they should listen and learn from the rest,
Diverse opinions can help traders invest their best.

So let them post their negative views without shame,
Bulls and bears will debate, and that's not a bad game.
in the end, the market has the final say,
So let's trade smart, and learn from every day.

[Balance]

Your poem was pretty crap so I rewrote it for you.


On Sharetrader's forums, posters do gather,
To share thoughts on stocks and discuss with each other.
Some are bullish, some are bearish, it's true,
But passion for trading is what they pursue.

Yet some can't stand views that differ from their own,
And blame them for market drops, their anger is shown.
They call them trolls, and they shout and rave,
As if one person's negativity could cause a stock to cave.

But markets are fickle, they rise and they fall,
Blaming others won't help, not one bit at all.
Instead, they should listen and learn from the rest,
Diverse opinions can help traders invest their best.

So let them post their negative views without shame,
Bulls and bears will debate, and that's not a bad game.
in the end, the market has the final say,
So let's trade smart, and learn from every day.

Bravo!

Well done!

[SailorRob]

With virtually every single company in the property industry GLOBALLY is trading at large discounts to NAV and showing a high correlation to OCA share price.

The geniuses Bull and Balance have confounded this to mean that the market is pricing in a need for a CR for this specific company.

So they are hypothesising that rather than OCA having just done what every other property sector company in the world has done, in fact the market has done the same or more detailed cash flow analysis as Maverick and NOT ONLY that, but they have drawn a different conclusion to what he has highlighed.

Good work boys.

[X-men]

Not that I hold any but insider confirm no CR required...

Good luck holders

[SailorRob]

Not that I hold any but insider confirm no CR required...

Good luck holders


Yeah I wonder what Bull and Balance think Tomlinson who owns $20 million of stock would say at the board meeting when a CR at current prices was suggested.

Well I can tell you they haven't thought about that as looking at a line on a graph is the only thought process that has gone into their analysis.

[Balance]

Yeah I wonder what Bull and Balance think Tomlinson who owns $20 million of stock would say at the board meeting when a CR at current prices was suggested.

Well I can tell you they haven't thought about that as looking at a line on a graph is the only thought process that has gone into their analysis.

So much aggro about CR.

Feel the fear?

[Curly]

So much aggro about CR.

Feel the fear?

Nah, no fear. Know the reality. Topping up big time.

[bull....]

Yeah I wonder what Bull and Balance think Tomlinson who owns $20 million of stock would say at the board meeting when a CR at current prices was suggested.

Well I can tell you they haven't thought about that as looking at a line on a graph is the only thought process that has gone into their analysis.

wonder what he thinks when he looks at the line on the chart lol

[SailorRob]

wonder what he thinks when he looks at the line on the chart lol


'What utter morons'

That's what I'd imagine.


I loved buying his cash and Lizzies at cents on the buck.

[Balance]

'What utter morons'

That's what I'd imagine.


I loved buying his cash and Lizzies at cents on the buck.

And that’s from Tomlinson who paid $1.30 for his last block of shares.

Good one!

[bull....]

'What utter morons'

That's what I'd imagine.


I loved buying his cash and Lizzies at cents on the buck.

whats his track record ? sailor rob quote

[Greekwatchdog]

And that’s from Tomlinson who paid $1.30 for his last block of shares.

Good one!
Your an egg. Just imagine if he sold as an Independent Director, imagine if he traded like you short term traders do. I wonder what you would say then? You'd be saying something else ridiculous. He is a Long Term Investor.

[bull....]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CH_ebri0rc

[bottomfeeder]

Your an egg. Just imagine if he sold as an Independent Director, imagine if he traded like you short term readers do. I wonder what you would say then? You'd be saying something else ridiculous. He is a Long Term Investor.

Yep a sure way to make money. Buy high and sell low. I think he has more brains than that.

[Balance]

Your an egg. Just imagine if he sold as an Independent Director, imagine if he traded like you short term readers do. I wonder what you would say then? You'd be saying something else ridiculous. He is a Long Term Investor.

And on what basis do you assert I am a short term trader?

Because I did not invest in OCA at over $1.00+ and continued to hold as the sp went ever lower?

I think many would say that makes me smart or at worse, lucky?

[SailorRob]

whats his track record ? sailor rob quote

From what I understand, exceptional.

[SailorRob]

And on what basis do you assert I am a short term trader?

Because I did not invest in OCA at over $1.00+ and continued to hold as the sp went ever lower?

I think many would say that makes me smart or at worse, lucky?

At best lucky.

Look at your returns over the last few years, that will tell you.

[X-men]

Oca is stuffed.. despite of many holders here believe no CR...but yet fundies are still playing with the fear

[Balance]

Oca is stuffed.. despite of many holders here believe no CR...but yet fundies are still playing with the fear

Retail buying (47 buyers averaging 4,000 shares at 70c) vs institutional selling with one fundie after another taking turns to unload volume to retail punters.

Exactly the same situation as was seen with Ryman before the CR.

Thing is this - the brokers/underwriters typically sound out instos on a ‘confidential’ basis their sub-underwriting appetite and price for most CR.

Word inevitably leaks out and the instos pull out of the market. The more aggressive ones sell down fully expecting to get reset at a much lower price. Hence the ever falling sp as instos wait for the CR.

Meanwhile, retail punters blissfully buy as stock looks cheaper and cheaper!

But X-men, all good as your OCA insider said NO CR. Buying opportunity!

[Muse]

Retail buying (47 buyers averaging 4,000 shares at 70c) vs institutional selling with one fundie after another taking turns to unload volume to retail punters.

Exactly the same situation as was seen with Ryman before the CR.

Thing is this - the brokers/underwriters typically sound out instos on a ‘confidential’ basis their sub-underwriting appetite and price for most CR.

Word inevitably leaks out and the instos pull out of the market. The more aggressive ones sell down fully expecting to get reset at a much lower price. Hence the ever falling sp as instos wait for the CR.

Meanwhile, retail punters blissfully buy as stock looks cheaper and cheaper!

But X-men, all good as your OCA insider said NO CR. Buying opportunity!

Without taking a view on OCA either way, I’d say yes thats how it works. Also tends to happen when post IPO escrows come off…instos let a share price sink and demand a discount off that (a discount off a discount) when the block is placed out. Doesnt mean a share doesnt have fundamental value that will get rerated higher if you get caught out by this but is something to be alive when trying to pick your moment.

Those are general statements I don’t know much about OCA.

[Balance]

Without taking a view on OCA either way, I’d say yes thats how it works. Also tends to happen when post IPO escrows come off…instos let a share price sink and demand a discount off that (a discount off a discount) when the block is placed out. Doesnt mean a share doesnt have fundamental value that will get rerated higher if you get caught out by this but is something to be alive when trying to pick your moment.

Those are general statements I don’t know much about OCA.

Now observe the venom forthcoming from some posters soon - they prefer to post abusive tirades at me for having the audacity to explain market dynamics to them!

Rather than learn how market works.

[Muse]

Methinks it's not necessarily what you say, it's how you say it.

And I prefer to stay out of it.

[X-men]

Not saying OCA will definitely does a CR, but the pattern or trend looks like a CR pattern. However sometimes it is also fundies tactic to push down the SP. To get more share bases on the market fear. Many stocks behave like OCA and RYM...some end up with CR and some did not.

The management should do an update like ARV

[SailorRob]

Retail buying (47 buyers averaging 4,000 shares at 70c) vs institutional selling with one fundie after another taking turns to unload volume to retail punters.

Exactly the same situation as was seen with Ryman before the CR.

Thing is this - the brokers/underwriters typically sound out instos on a ‘confidential’ basis their sub-underwriting appetite and price for most CR.

Word inevitably leaks out and the instos pull out of the market. The more aggressive ones sell down fully expecting to get reset at a much lower price. Hence the ever falling sp as instos wait for the CR.

Meanwhile, retail punters blissfully buy as stock looks cheaper and cheaper!

But X-men, all good as your OCA insider said NO CR. Buying opportunity!


That's some extremely serious allegations you're making Balance. Doesn't mean they aren't true but insider trading by our large institutions with all they have on the line... Very interesting.