OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

You guys are complete idiots if you are doubting Bull.

This is a guy who can make money by trading off any chart, anywhere, anytime.

Be very careful if you are not listening to what he's saying.

lol so true, as the only one on this forum who predicted the collapse of OCA with my superior fundamental and technical analysis skills it would indeed be silly to ignore my calls lol

[Rawz]

lol so true, as the only one on this forum who predicted the collapse of OCA with my superior fundamental and technical analysis skills it would indeed be silly to ignore my calls lol

whats your call now Bull?

[bull....]

whats your call now Bull?

i mentioned it on here the other day 78 - 82 trading range. it still holds ... thats the short term play. long term my position hasnt changed at this point in time. my reasons were well documented on here

[BlackPeter]

Yes Grimey …it’s the story that really matters …..numbers are secondary

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” (Benjamin Graham).

Clearly - it is stories which drive short term share price movements, i.e. what you are saying is correct for anybody with a short time horizon (though - stories sometimes can change quite fast as well - better make sure you keep up with them :);

Investors however better keep the weighing machine functionality of the market in mind ... in the long run it is just the numbers which count. Money and solid assets tend to hang around, it is only aging stories which fade.

That's why they call patience a virtue ...

[Grimy]

Yes Grimey …it’s the story that really matters …..numbers are secondary

I put that bit in especially for you Winner.

[Brain]

lol so true, as the only one on this forum who predicted the collapse of OCA with my superior fundamental and technical analysis skills it would indeed be silly to ignore my calls lol

If the NBR have omitted you from the rich list than that is a substantial oversight.

[SailorRob]

lol so true, as the only one on this forum who predicted the collapse of OCA with my superior fundamental and technical analysis skills it would indeed be silly to ignore my calls lol


This is a big lesson to all of us. Someone like Maverick can do all that incredible work, probably many hundreds of hours, talk to people inside the company and listen to every conference call and have capital invested for years... but it's all a massive waste of time when with the correct skill set, you can just look at a chart of the OCA share price and predict what it will do in the future, while still working your guts out in a full time 'normal job'.

All that wasted effort when it was obvious looking at the chart that it was going to crash. Giving you multiple options including short selling the stock.

The fact that some can make this easy money from any chart, anytime, anywhere and still choose to work very hard at their normal job, well over 40 hours a week, is something we should all take heart in, very impressive indeed.

Maverick my friend you are doing it all wrong.

And Bull while I have doubted you in the past. Those days are gone.

[justakiwi]

Wow. You take today's prize for being the biggest AH here. A disgusting, disrespectful and arrogant post that will win you no friends. Maverick is 100 x the man you clearly are, and nothing he has done has been "wasted time." He literally has zero ego, shares his work with everyone with no expectation of thanks or adulation, and knows this company better than you or your buddy Bull, ever will. He also steps up and admits when he gets it wrong. You are clearly a trader. Mav and the rest of us are in this for the long term, and not remotely interested in day trading.

Welcome to my ignore list you horrible little man :mad ;:



This is a big lesson to all of us. Someone like Maverick can do all that incredible work, probably many hundreds of hours, talk to people inside the company and listen to every conference call and have capital invested for years... but it's all a massive waste of time when with the correct skill set, you can just look at a chart of the OCA share price and predict what it will do in the future, while still working your guts out in a full time 'normal job'.

All that wasted effort when it was obvious looking at the chart that it was going to crash. Giving you multiple options including short selling the stock.

The fact that some can make this easy money from any chart, anytime, anywhere and still choose to work very hard at their normal job, well over 40 hours a week, is something we should all take heart in, very impressive indeed.

Maverick my friend you are doing it all wrong.

And Bull while I have doubted you in the past. Those days are gone.

[Balance]

Wow. You take today's prize for being the biggest AH here. A disgusting, disrespectful and arrogant post that will win you no friends. Maverick is 100 x the man you clearly are, and nothing he has done has been "wasted time." He literally has zero ego, shares his work with everyone with no expectation of thanks or adulation, and knows this company better than you or your buddy Bull, ever will. He also steps up and admits when he gets it wrong. You are clearly a trader. Mav and the rest of us are in this for the long term, and not remotely interested in day trading.

Welcome to my ignore list you horrible little man :mad ;:

Ever occur to you that SailorRob is being sarcastic and ironical towards bull …?

[justakiwi]

That was my initial thought with his previous post, but you don't slag someone else, in order to be sarcastic towards Bull. So .... no, he was not being sarcastic in this post.


Ever occur to you that SailorRob is being sarcastic and ironical towards bull …?

[SailorRob]

Oh my god Sharetrader is hilarious!

JAK????? Forrest Gump would understand perfectly the point of my post and I'm not sure Forest can read!!

I am praying that every single other reader gets it?????

Wow

[bull....]

This is a big lesson to all of us. Someone like Maverick can do all that incredible work, probably many hundreds of hours, talk to people inside the company and listen to every conference call and have capital invested for years... but it's all a massive waste of time when with the correct skill set, you can just look at a chart of the OCA share price and predict what it will do in the future, while still working your guts out in a full time 'normal job'.

All that wasted effort when it was obvious looking at the chart that it was going to crash. Giving you multiple options including short selling the stock.

The fact that some can make this easy money from any chart, anytime, anywhere and still choose to work very hard at their normal job, well over 40 hours a week, is something we should all take heart in, very impressive indeed.

Maverick my friend you are doing it all wrong.

And Bull while I have doubted you in the past. Those days are gone.

yes i have always said mav was a true believer and have never doubted the time he puts in or his skills but sometimes people can get blinded by an investment

i would suggest ( not intended towards mav ) but maybe sailor could apply it to berkshire lol
never fall in love with a stock
read the tea leaves of change and adjust your portfolio as needed
never commit to much of a portfolio to one stock

[dubya]

Yup I got it perfectly SailorRob

[Rawz]

Oh my god Sharetrader is hilarious!

JAK????? Forrest Gump would understand perfectly the point of my post and I'm not sure Forest can read!!

I am praying that every single other reader gets it?????

Wow

Yes it was quite clear in your post lol. You support Mav's work and dont believe in Bulls money making abilities with charting via 18 screens

JAK just very fast to defend her friend Mav because of his hard work and the joke went over her head. But thats okay she means well

[Rawz]

yes i have always said mav was a true believer and have never doubted the time he puts in or his skills but sometimes people can get blinded by an investment

i would suggest ( not intended towards mav ) but maybe sailor could apply it to berkshire lol
never fall in love with a stock
read the tea leaves of change and adjust your portfolio as needed
never commit to much of a portfolio to one stock

Bull you do deserve credit for saying OCA sp was going to the dogs in the short term- you got it right

[justakiwi]

I wouldn't bank on it.

You can stay on my ignore list.



Oh my god Sharetrader is hilarious!

JAK????? Forrest Gump would understand perfectly the point of my post and I'm not sure Forest can read!!

I am praying that every single other reader gets it?????

Wow

[Balance]

I wouldn't bank on it.

You can stay on my ignore list.

Haha - and SailorRob is so torn up about it that he has opened up a bottle of champagne to celebrate! :t_up:

[SailorRob]

Yes it was quite clear in your post lol. You support Mav's work and dont believe in Bulls money making abilities with charting via 18 screens

JAK just very fast to defend her friend Mav because of his hard work and the joke went over her head. But thats okay she means well


Agreed.

But before you publicly got someones throat you gotta make sure you have your facts right!

Mav is one of the most sophisticated members I have ever seen here.

Obviously not as sophisticated as Bull.

[davflaws]

A few deep breaths all round would help. I got SR's irony/sarcasm - JAK didn't, but I think it would improve the "serious" forums discussing specific stocks if we all try to put feelings about other posters aside.

Let's try to save our vitriol and bile for the off market and political discussions. There is plenty of scope for that there.

[SailorRob]

A few deep breaths all round would help. I got SR's irony/sarcasm - JAK didn't, but I think it would improve the "serious" forums discussing specific stocks if we all try to put feelings about other posters aside.

Let's try to save our vitriol and bile for the off market and political discussions. There is plenty of scope for that there.

Very well said, I agree.

It's a reasonable minor point but anyone considered the fact that 80c now is different to 80c around the IPO time due to shares on issue?

[winner69]

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” (Benjamin Graham).

Clearly - it is stories which drive short term share price movements, i.e. what you are saying is correct for anybody with a short time horizon (though - stories sometimes can change quite fast as well - better make sure you keep up with them :);

Investors however better keep the weighing machine functionality of the market in mind ... in the long run it is just the numbers which count. Money and solid assets tend to hang around, it is only aging stories which fade.

That's why they call patience a virtue ...

Be a bit sad if this weighing machine records OCA share price as 81 cents

[justakiwi]

For what it’s worth, I apologise. Clearly I misinterpreted Sailor Rob’s post (as did some others who have acknowledged that via PM).

I was standing up for/supporting a friend whom I thought was being disrespected. While I accept that I was wrong, I am not ashamed to be someone who acts out of care and concern for others.
Contrary to what you believe Sailor Rob, I do not “hate on people” unless they deserve it. I certainly do not hate on people because I am “unhappy with the position I find myself in in life.” I live the lifestyle I live by choice.

[percy]

Anyone who wants to read some sense about the retirement village sector should read www.chrislee.co.nz taking stock.

[winner69]

Anyone who wants to read some sense about the retirement village sector should read www.chrislee.co.nz taking stock.

Think Percy saying you should read this very good bit
https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

[BlackPeter]

Anyone who wants to read some sense about the retirement village sector should read www.chrislee.co.nz taking stock.

good link - cheers.

[winner69]

Much been said about OCA big downturn v last year in new sales, Lots of causes etc given for this

Whatever its a 'problem' for all in the sector. All reported less sales -

SUM -40 -15%
OCA -40 -40%
RYM -41 -29%
ARV -15 -13%

One thing - they'll all sell one day

[Snow Leopard]

Think Percy saying you should read this very good bit
https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock


....4. One day a government will behave intelligently....

What planet is Chris on ?

[SailorRob]

For what it’s worth, I apologise. Clearly I misinterpreted Sailor Rob’s post (as did some others who have acknowledged that via PM).

I was standing up for/supporting a friend whom I thought was being disrespected. While I accept that I was wrong, I am not ashamed to be someone who acts out of care and concern for others.
Contrary to what you believe Sailor Rob, I do not “hate on people” unless they deserve it. I certainly do not hate on people because I am “unhappy with the position I find myself in in life.” I live the lifestyle I live by choice.

No problem, cheers.

I'm definitely horrible, specially to people I perceive as taking advantage of others ignorance.

But come on I'm 6 foot 3 so definitely not horrible and little.

[SailorRob]

Much been said about OCA big downturn v last year in new sales, Lots of causes etc given for this

Whatever its a 'problem' for all in the sector. All reported less sales -

SUM -40 -15%
OCA -40 -40%
RYM -41 -29%
ARV -15 -13%

One thing - they'll all sell one day

Exactly, that's what I was getting at this morning, the earnings are temporarily trapped on the balance sheet.

They WILL sell.

[Balance]

Exactly, that's what I was getting at this morning, the earnings are temporarily trapped on the balance sheet.

They WILL sell.

At what price is the key factor in a down cycle property market.

[Beau]

Anyone who wants to read some sense about the retirement village sector should read www.chrislee.co.nz (http://www.chrislee.co.nz) taking stock.
Thanks Percy that’s more what this thread’s about.

[ronaldson]

The nearest RV to me (RYM not OCA) is offering a 12-month weekly fee waiver and a $10k credit if you settle an occupation rights agreement (villa or apartment) by 22 December. This is further evidence that there is real competition in the marketplace among providers at present to get stock away to customers.

Obviously the population demographic is at its most favourable but the general property market is now not helping folk wishing to sell down, while the build rate within the sector has been steadily rising for some time. Balance is yet to be achieved.

[Bjauck]

Hell of a difference between farm land vs residential ‘future subdividable’ land.

Come to Auckland and have a look at what developers were paying for subdividable land before the market started its bust from Dec 2021. It was par for the course for them to pay 50% to 200% more than CV.

Now we have mortgagee sales of development land all over Auckland. it is quite ridiculous how much we pay for land used for sleeping and watching tv compared to what we pay for land used to actually produce stuff.

[SailorRob]

it is quite ridiculous how much we pay for land used for sleeping and watching tv compared to what we pay for land used to actually produce stuff.

Yes very good point, and the 'hell of a difference' balance talks of is just the stroke of a pen.

[SailorRob]

Think Percy saying you should read this very good bit
https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock


Not a terrible write up on the sector but as with everyone else they miss the forest of the Business model for the trees.

The rest of the article is downright dangerous, I am getting in touch with them to see what their record is as if they can get out at the earliest signs of storm clouds and then presumably back in an an opportune time while stating that anyone saying you cant is a salesman or paid media, then their record will not only be market beating it will be market destroying.

I wont be.

[ronaldson]

OCA getting some traction now, with a market close at 84c despite going ex-dividend earlier in the week. Perhaps the worst is over.

[Getty]

A recent Hawkes Bay example is someone sold their home for $680K, and bought into a retirement village for $570K.

If those % differentials remain, then many will still see retirement villages as an option, despite the annual fee, $5900 in this case.

Correction, Annual fee $7540 incl rates.insurance and maintenance.

[winner69]

Another month and the long term trend remains

Even in a month of carnage for the sector SUM share price outperformed OCA (ie the fall was less worse)

Never mind. Soem will take solace from old friend Ben when he says '“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

What that actually means here I have no idea but it seems to me that the market has been 'weighing' up OCA quite well but I'm sure there are many who will say the market is still voting and this trend will eventually change.

Eventually an interesting word - wonder what will cause 'eventually' to happen and when

Sorry for being boring and bringing up again but it's just one of those 'mathematical' things that fascinate me and to some degree there's some beauty in the chart

[BlackPeter]

Another month and the long term trend remains

Even in a month of carnage for the sector SUM share price outperformed OCA (ie the fall was less worse)

Never mind. Soem will take solace from old friend Ben when he says '“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

What that actually means here I have no idea but it seems to me that the market has been 'weighing' up OCA quite well but I'm sure there are many who will say the market is still voting and this trend will eventually change.

Eventually an interesting word - wonder what will cause 'eventually' to happen and when

Sorry for being boring and bringing up again but it's just one of those 'mathematical' things that fascinate me and to some degree there's some beauty in the chart

Depressing chart. Most charts pointing to the bottom right are. And yes, it clearly shows that market priced SUM over the last 5 years higher than it priced OCA.

Not sure though, how to predict the future based on a trendline of an arbitrary ratio of two share prices.

If we use linear extrapolation, than one OCA share will be in 5 years from now worth 0% of one SUM share.

Does this assumption makes sense? No, of course not ... but hey, this is what linear extrapolation gives you.

Apart from attempts to extrapolate trends without understanding the underlying mathematical model being non-sensical (but I know, we all do this) - do we fall here as well into the trap to equate share price with share value, despite all understanding the difference.

Value is determined by asset base and by future earnings potential.

If we use NTA as asset base ...
OCA does have a NTA of $1.34 per share - i.e. at 84 cents you get a 37% discount.
SUM does have a NTA of $8.36 per share - i.e. at $9.57 you pay a premium of 14%;

I prefer to buy cheap (i.e. with discount) vs dear.

If we look at the earnings potential:
SUM's 3 years forward PE (yes, based on analysts forecasts) is 9.8
OCA's 3 years forwards PE is 7.

But sure - nobody (neither analysts nor markets nor we) can predict the future.

Both good value companies, but OCA clearly seems to be the better deal - but I guess this is what your chart shows as well. You make money when you buy shares the market undervalues, not if you buy them at the peak of market exuberance.

Of course - maybe the market knows something we don't and has a good reason of undervaluing OCA vs SUM ... but lets face it - probably it does not. Markets are due to their power always right (in the present), but as often wrong in predicting the future than anybody else.

[bull....]

Think Percy saying you should read this very good bit
https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

easy to write this in hindsight , but did he warn investors of the sector a yr or more ago?

[Balance]

easy to write this in hindsight , but did he warn investors of the sector a yr or more ago?

Chris Lee famously had his own credit rating system for finance companies & his #1 finance company from memory was South Canterbury Finance.

The rest as they say is history and Chris Lee deleted everything and anything remotely related to his credit rating system.

[percy]

Company.....NTA.......Share Price....discount to NTA...Premium to NTA....Dividend yield
ARV............$1.93........$1.23..............36. 27%.............000....................4.08%...... ..Trading at a discount to NTA
OCA............$1.34.........84 cents..........37.32%...........000............... .....5%..............Trading at a discount to NTA
RYM............$7.134.......$6.70..............000 ..................6.5%.................3.34%...... ....Trading at a premium to NTA
SUM............$8.91.........$9.50..............00 0..................6.62%................2.03%..... ....Trading at a premium to NTA

[bull....]

Chris Lee famously had his own credit rating system for finance companies & his #1 finance company from memory was South Canterbury Finance.

The rest as they say is history and Chris Lee deleted everything and anything remotely related to his credit rating system.

interesting , i never really heard of this person until some people post on here like they are some guru , but if what you say is correct that is terrible :scared:

[percy]

Chris Lee famously had his own credit rating system for finance companies & his #1 finance company from memory was South Canterbury Finance.

The rest as they say is history and Chris Lee deleted everything and anything remotely related to his credit rating system.

Make peace with your past and your future will be peaceful.

[Balance]

interesting , i never really heard of this person until some people post on here like they are some guru , but if what you say is correct that is terrible :scared:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/2161440/Advice-and-adversity

This tells you all you want to know.

"But the Lindsays have been left holding virtually worthless

Babcock & Brown subordinated notes,

as well as capital notes in St Laurence (in moratorium),

debentures in Dorchester Finance (in moratorium),

Hanover Capital preference shares (in moratorium),

debentures in North South Finance (in moratorium) and

two tranches of debentures in Strategic Finance (in moratorium)."

"It appears to be a collection of investments without any structure, and looks more like something from a DIY investor, rather than one put together by an investment professional."

That's the opinion of senior Spicers' financial planner Jeff Matthews on a portfolio created for retired Southland farmers Clare and John Lindsay on the advice of high-profile Kapiti Coast adviser Chris Lee.

[winner69]

Hey BP - you sayf we use linear extrapolation, than one OCA share will be in 5 years from now worth 0% of one SUM share. Does this assumption makes sense? No, of course not ... but hey, this is what linear extrapolation gives you.

Maybe OCA will be taken over soon ...... and then we will never know whether iy got to 0%

Maybe this 'trend' is a predictor of such an event

Maybe those who Inftratil turned away will come to Oceania and find an easier group of people to convince theie offer is a good one

[Balance]

Make peace with your past and your future will be peaceful.

Indeed!

Chris Lee needs to admit to his mistakes rather than spend his time blaming others for clients putting monies into finance companies based upon his 'deleted' credit rating system.

[850man]

Liz added 50K shares to her holding http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/403455/384931.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Hey BP - you sayf we use linear extrapolation, than one OCA share will be in 5 years from now worth 0% of one SUM share. Does this assumption makes sense? No, of course not ... but hey, this is what linear extrapolation gives you.

Maybe OCA will be taken over soon ...... and then we will never know whether iy got to 0%

Maybe this 'trend' is a predictor of such an event

Maybe those who Inftratil turned away will come to Oceania and find an easier group of people to convince theie offer is a good one

Possible ... smart money always looking for good value (i.e. high value at low price). Not dumb these people. I'd say SUM is currently much safer from being taken over than OCA is.

Time will tell.

[winner69]

Liz added 50K shares to her holding http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/403455/384931.pdf

Good news

Liz averaging down nicely .....average price now $1.06

But still just under $400,000 under water on her punting .... but then dividends and her director fees would have softened the blow

Always good to follow insider buying eh

And good that Directors are feeling the pain (in her case a little pain anyway) as much as retail shareholders

[Brain]

Liz is not a very tidy person. 1859745 shares. personally I would have rounded it up to 1860000 for an extra $204

[Perky]

I think it’s more likely she’s a big fan of the block Australia tv show and she watches it while reading her oca directors notes at night and she saw that fella Danny Wallace bid in random amounts…he really makes the auctioneers work for their fee and generally confuses everyone including himself.

Here’s his latest efforts…
He also bought Tom and Sarah-Jane’s property for $4,100,000.99 – giving them a profit of just $20,000 – and Rachel and Ryan’s for 4,249,999.50,

Surely Liz isn’t trying to confuse us poor oca shareholders anymore than the company reports do . I thinks she doing a Danny and hoping we can’t count.

[winner69]

Liz is not a very tidy person. 1859745 shares. personally I would have rounded it up to 1860000 for an extra $204

but it would unround at the next DRP

[SailorRob]

Great intel on Chris Lee guys and thanks in particular to whoever posted the stuff article.

For anyone that instantly didn't recognise the signs of a massive shyster after reading the first few lines of that 'Taking stock' article, please be careful out there.

[percy]

Great intel on Chris Lee guys and thanks in particular to whoever posted the stuff article.

For anyone that instantly didn't recognise the signs of a massive shyster after reading the first few lines of that 'Taking stock' article, please be careful out there.

I found Chris Lee's comments on the retirement sector first rate.

[SailorRob]

I found Chris Lee's comments on the retirement sector first rate.

It was alright as I said at the time but nothing anyone here couldn't write and nothing anyone here would have learnt had they been reading this thread.

However that wasn't what I was talking about.

As I said if you didn't recognise a Shyster when confronted with one in a very raw fashion be careful out there.

[BlackPeter]

Great intel on Chris Lee guys and thanks in particular to whoever posted the stuff article.

For anyone that instantly didn't recognise the signs of a massive shyster after reading the first few lines of that 'Taking stock' article, please be careful out there.

While it seems to become fashionable to smear others under the protection of a semi anonymous forum, I don't think that anybody needs to be proud of doing this - and it certainly is not "intel", it is smear.

I do know Chris personally - and I consider him a honorable man and a good investment advisor. That's more than I can say about some of the cowards and snipers with a personal agenda.

Chris has a habit of talking straight - and not everybody appreciates that.
He is well connected and knows the tools of his business.
I think he is good in recognising the big picture ...
and I often learn by listening to him another valid perspective.

but ...

he is not able to predict the future, and he makes mistakes as well. We all do.

Similar as everybody else - he is not an infallibel stock picker. And I don't think he ever claimed that.

I propose that his haters either go home and get a life - or approach him in person.

Anything else is just telling us so much more about them than about Chris.

[Gerald]

Some of the maths in the article seem a little sketchy, for example arguing DMF fees have no costs associated with them, and have a 100% net profit margin. Sure there probably is a present value benefit to receiving it upfront, but DMF fees are not 100% margin.

[Snow Leopard]

Some of the maths in the article seem a little sketchy, for example arguing DMF fees have no costs associated with them, and have a 100% net profit margin. Sure there probably is a present value benefit to receiving it upfront, but DMF fees are not 100% margin.

I have always been impressed that the get to call it a deferred management fee.

If you take the 1 (and the first 0 if you are pedantic) off the front then you get closer to the true profit margin.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/2161440/Advice-and-adversity

This tells you all you want to know.

...



I don't think it does. It is a highly emotional and very bad researched article.

I don't know which contractual relationship this couple had with Chris, and if the reporter knows than he chooses not to tell us.

Even a cursory research would have revealed, that Chris Lee offers a number of different contract options starting from a basic interactional client broker relationship looking only into the requested transaction, over advise as requested (incl. some portfolio reviews) through to full portfolio management.

Service level as well as price are naturally different between these options.

Do you know? If not, what exactly do you accuse Chris of?

Some people who had some sort of relationship with Chris lost some money during the GFC. So?

Whatever it takes to smear somebody ...

[SailorRob]

While it seems to become fashionable to smear others under the protection of a semi anonymous forum, I don't think that anybody needs to be proud of doing this - and it certainly is not "intel", it is smear.

I do know Chris personally - and I consider him a honorable man and a good investment advisor. That's more than I can say about some of the cowards and snipers with a personal agenda.

Chris has a habit of talking straight - and not everybody appreciates that.
He is well connected and knows the tools of his business.
I think he is good in recognising the big picture ...
and I often learn by listening to him another valid perspective.

but ...

he is not able to predict the future, and he makes mistakes as well. We all do.

Similar as everybody else - he is not an infallibel stock picker. And I don't think he ever claimed that.

I propose that his haters either go home and get a life - or approach him in person.

Anything else is just telling us so much more about them than about Chris.


Firstly sorry to the OCA thread for going on about this, you don't have to read it.

Well Blackpeter I consideryou complicit and to me that's worse. You should be disgusted in yourself for sticking up for him.

If you're going to accuse me of using anonymity to smear, send me a private message and I will give you my details, send me a envelope with a return address and a stamp and I will sign my name to the comments I have made.

I have approached him already, not yet in person but let see where this goes first, because I can tell you now that the track record I have requested will NOT be coming as it will show that he hasn't come close to beating what a index fund can do.

He is well connected and knows the tools of his business. I think he is good in recognising the big picture ...

What the hell does this even mean? Can he provide more value than an index fund or not Blackpeter? Blackpeter?????

Do you know? If not, what exactly do you accuse Chris of?

What I accuse him of, and you as well for promoting him is writing an article that very strongly implies that he can 'time sales wisely' and avoid sell downs by observing the darkening sky and that anyone who says otherwise are crap investors.

But lets go to some direct quotes from dear misunderstood Chris;

'The smartest and wealthiest are those who see the coming storms earlier than the television weather forecasters and act decisively.
They know that once everyone is enduring the storms there could be mass selling. They prepare for the day when dark clouds produce awful conditions'.


Salesmen and those who are not accountable, like media commentators, will preach the ''do nothing'' philosophy, the salesmen motivated by self-interest, the media commentators fed by salesmen (and advertisers). One wonders what they do with their personal portfolios.
The past 12 months have illustrated this pattern, foreign money leaving NZ, banks withdrawing, the salesmen still urging people to accept growing losses.
Meanwhile the stock pickers, looking for the strongest performers in a falling market, differentiate themselves from the index-huggers.



So the people he claims are not accountable and acting on their own interest or getting paid, who preach 'do nothing' are wrong and he speculates that what they do with their personal portfolios is different...

Essentially he is saying that he can easily avoid the falling market well ahead of time, anyone preaching do nothing is wrong and actually acting against investors best interest and that stockpickers can do better than the index huggers.

You will note that he carefully constructs all of this without claiming he can do any of it.

BUT he totally failed to see the biggest darkest economic storm clouds of our lifetimes coming and left his clients (even if it was ONE that's plenty bad enough) to get cleaned out in the GFC invested in crap that nobody should ever have touched under ANY circumstances, and furthermore he supposedly had a special model that could measure these risks.

Did he tell one single person to invest in a NZ finance company in 2005, 2006 or 2007? If so then he is a total moron and you should be disgusted with yourself for sticking up for him.

So, some money where our mouths are Blackpeter, lets go. Put anything you want on the table that your boy cannot beat a SP500 index fund over the next 10 years. I want your money not his. If he can beat Berkshire I'll double it.

Waiting for your message and waiting for Chris to provide me with evidence of his ability to dodge falling markets.

I'm sick of seeing people getting taken advantage of and others cheering them along.

* EDIT. Do a google search of Chris Lee GFC and see how many results come back of his firm before you get to what he doesn't want you to see. He has populated Google with results from his business so it pushes the dodgy stuff back to at least page 3. And BlackPeter is totally complicit this.

[Joshuatree]

Firstly sorry to the OCA thread for going on about this, you don't have to read it.

Well Blackpeter I consideryou complicit and to me that's worse. You should be disgusted in yourself for sticking up for him.

If you're going to accuse me of using anonymity to smear, send me a private message and I will give you my details, send me a envelope with a return address and a stamp and I will sign my name to the comments I have made.

I have approached him already, not yet in person but let see where this goes first, because I can tell you now that the track record I have requested will NOT be coming as it will show that he hasn't come close to beating what a index fund can do.

He is well connected and knows the tools of his business. I think he is good in recognising the big picture ...

What the hell does this even mean? Can he provide more value than an index fund or not Blackpeter? Blackpeter?????

Do you know? If not, what exactly do you accuse Chris of?

What I accuse him of, and you as well for promoting him is writing an article that very strongly implies that he can 'time sales wisely' and avoid sell downs by observing the darkening sky and that anyone who says otherwise are crap investors.

But lets go to some direct quotes from dear misunderstood Chris;

'The smartest and wealthiest are those who see the coming storms earlier than the television weather forecasters and act decisively.
They know that once everyone is enduring the storms there could be mass selling. They prepare for the day when dark clouds produce awful conditions'.


Salesmen and those who are not accountable, like media commentators, will preach the ''do nothing'' philosophy, the salesmen motivated by self-interest, the media commentators fed by salesmen (and advertisers). One wonders what they do with their personal portfolios.
The past 12 months have illustrated this pattern, foreign money leaving NZ, banks withdrawing, the salesmen still urging people to accept growing losses.
Meanwhile the stock pickers, looking for the strongest performers in a falling market, differentiate themselves from the index-huggers.



So the people he claims are not accountable and acting on their own interest or getting paid, who preach 'do nothing' are wrong and he speculates that what they do with their personal portfolios is different...

Essentially he is saying that he can easily avoid the falling market well ahead of time, anyone preaching do nothing is wrong and actually acting against investors best interest and that stockpickers can do better than the index huggers.

You will note that he carefully constructs all of this without claiming he can do any of it.

BUT he totally failed to see the biggest darkest economic storm clouds of our lifetimes coming and left his clients (even if it was ONE that's plenty bad enough) to get cleaned out in the GFC invested in crap that nobody should ever have touched under ANY circumstances, and furthermore he supposedly had a special model that could measure these risks.

Did he tell one single person to invest in a NZ finance company in 2005, 2006 or 2007? If so then he is a total moron and you should be disgusted with yourself for sticking up for him.

So, some money where our mouths are Blackpeter, lets go. Put anything you want on the table that your boy cannot beat a SP500 index fund over the next 10 years. I want your money not his. If he can beat Berkshire I'll double it.

Waiting for your message and waiting for Chris to provide me with evidence of his ability to dodge falling markets.

I'm sick of seeing people getting taken advantage of and others cheering them along.

* EDIT. Do a google search of Chris Lee GFC and see how many results come back of his firm before you get to what he doesn't want you to see. He has populated Google with results from his business so it pushes the dodgy stuff back to at least page 3. And BlackPeter is totally complicit this.

You are basically right.But all investment advisers do it.They have interesting facts and feel good stats and the message that comes through is the same re " Leave your well earned to us,it's so complex,for a small 1% fee per annum we will invest your funds wisely at your chosen risk profile and see you right.We will provide you with some sort of index where we can match or get close to before or after our fees and commissions are taken out.
We will offer you greenwahed opps then a luxury goods company in the same breath,what ever it takes we will see you right,leave your hard earned with us.

[Grimy]

We seem to be getting further and further away from OCA on this thread.
Only a week and a half until the dividend is paid. I think I will stay with the cash this time around - thereby ensuring a gradual rise in the share price making the DRP the better choice.....
I have a reasonable amount (for me) but will consider buying more if the price drops under 76-78. But adding to my cash holding along with other dividends (thanks WHS) still seems prudent at present.

[SailorRob]

We seem to be getting further and further away from OCA on this thread.
Only a week and a half until the dividend is paid. I think I will stay with the cash this time around - thereby ensuring a gradual rise in the share price making the DRP the better choice.....
I have a reasonable amount (for me) but will consider buying more if the price drops under 76-78. But adding to my cash holding along with other dividends (thanks WHS) still seems prudent at present.


On the contrary I think it is extremely imprudent, but as with gambling doing something stupid may pay off.

My reasoning;

You are choosing to hold Pacific Pesos which are devaluing at a rate far beyond what the CPI will show you (as we all know and some feel more than others) and the government is spraying around like confetti devaluing them even further, even if cash is invested in mid term deposits it is still generating a massive negative rate of return.

You are consciously choosing to hold this paper over holding an amalgamation of real assets consisting of Steel, concrete, glass, land, human capital and a great deal of other stuff which has been expertly crafted into a franchise (another very real asset) which produces a real cash flow and supplies society with a much needed service, both now and into the future AND more importantly you can swap the Pesos for all these assets at around 1/3 of the real value (when you include the float that has been used to produce more of these assets, which is FAR more valuable now in a higher nominal rate environment, and the bond debt is a massive asset too as its priced in old rates).

But you choose instead to hold rapidly depreciating paper as because of some macro insight you believe that in the future you may be able to swap them to some greater fool for even more real assets than you can now (cheaper share prices) when there is zero evidence this is going to be the case, just a 'feeling'. All of those real assets were purchased and built with 'old money' but the revenues and cash flows they produce are priced in new devalued money.

What would be prudent is borrowing paper and vastly negative interest rates and using it to purchase these real cash producing assets for centavos on the Peso. You'll be paying it back with new Pesos which will be much easier to come by.

[peat]

But you choose instead to hold rapidly depreciating paper
actually , tho, as in actual reality, OCA equity paper is depreciating pretty rapidly and has been for nearly two years now with no real sign of a turnaround, so all your words about the future are just reckons. clearly the market has a problem with OCA otherwise it would likely be closer to NTA. And the market is what determines the current price, not the NTA, not your reckons, and not everyones expectations which have been pushed around for years now, hey I'm exposed to this too but thanks to a strong concept of diversification in other markets, other shares, and holding cash in TD's the pain is relatively minimal and acceptable under the view of a long term holding.

So I wouldnt be touting this as the next best thing quite yet especially to people who already have a decent exposure.
14366

[SailorRob]

actually , tho, as in actual reality, OCA equity paper is depreciating pretty rapidly and has been for nearly two years now with no real sign of a turnaround, so all your words about the future are just reckons. clearly the market has a problem with OCA otherwise it would likely be closer to NTA. And the market is what determines the current price, not the NTA, not your reckons, and not everyones expectations which have been pushed around for years now, hey I'm exposed to this too but thanks to a strong concept of diversification in other markets, other shares, and holding cash in TD's the pain is relatively minimal and acceptable under the view of a long term holding.

So I wouldnt be touting this as the next best thing quite yet especially to people who already have a decent exposure.
14366


My friend, volatility is not risk.

Do not take your instruction from Mr market.

Your di worsification will see you get the long term results you deserve.

You must value OCA yourself and not take instruction from 'the market'

Buying OCA at $1.50 and seeing it drop to 78c is the very opposite of pain, this is all very basic stuff.

[SailorRob]

actually , tho, as in actual reality, OCA equity paper is depreciating pretty rapidly and has been for nearly two years now with no real sign of a turnaround, so all your words about the future are just reckons. clearly the market has a problem with OCA otherwise it would likely be closer to NTA. And the market is what determines the current price, not the NTA, not your reckons, and not everyones expectations which have been pushed around for years now, hey I'm exposed to this too but thanks to a strong concept of diversification in other markets, other shares, and holding cash in TD's the pain is relatively minimal and acceptable under the view of a long term holding.

So I wouldnt be touting this as the next best thing quite yet especially to people who already have a decent exposure.
14366


The mistake you have made is thinking OCA equity paper has been depreciating pretty rapidly, when in fact it has been appreciating. You are talking about something totally different... Hint... bigger discount.

[ronaldson]

The DRIP Election Date/Time was 5.00pm on Thursday 1 December, being the next working day after the Record Date. So you need to elect, or have already elected, to participate by then or the question is now academic.

Of course you can choose to participate or to withdraw from participation (in whole or part) at any time from now on, but your choice will only now apply to subsequent dividends (and assuming the Board mandate that the Reinvestment Plan will apply to that particular future dividend).

[SailorRob]

One day you were walking down the street and came across a man selling $10 notes for $9, you bought a bunch and were very happy with yourself.

The next day you are again walking down the street and see the same man now selling $10 notes for $6. You freak out and sprint to the nearest bank and hand all your money over to be safely deposited.

The closer to free OCA gets the more Sharetraders head to the bank in dismay, until the day comes when the chairman of the board calls them and gives them the news that they are giving them the entire company. Sharetraders begin to cry in anguish and turning to their partners say 'we've lost everything'

[Snow Leopard]

For what it is worth the much acclaimed (by me) Tiger and Snow Leopard Algorithmic Artificial Intelligence Technical Analysis of Stocks, Shares and Other Assorted Assets (exc CryptoCurrencies) Real Time Micro-Services Software as a Service, Chardonnay Version is rating OCA as:

The Bottom is in, the Smart Money has realised it's a Bargain and I know I said it before but this time I am definitely right, like I was last time.

[SailorRob]

I'd be very interested to know what Peat and Grimy would be scared of if they owned OCA in a private partnership and had no quoted market price, would they be scared into term deposits then?

Seriously, imagine that since the share price was $1.60 at the start of 2021, if it was privately held, what would you be doing?

Why doesn't everyone stop looking at the share price altogether say for the next 3 years and only base your analysis on the published documents by the company, and perhaps driving round looking at the facilities when time permits.

[Grimy]

I'm not 'scared' of owning OCA shares. I have enough at present. I am taking the cash this time around as I have more than one company on my watchlist that the money will be going into soon enough.
I do happen to own shares in unlisted property (and am not scared of those investments either) and I understand what you are saying.
However, everyone's circumstances are different and I have some expenses coming up, not sure yet exactly how much they will be, so yes, I consider it prudent to hold some cash until I am over that 'hump' and then I will know what is left over for the next investment or top-up.
Thanks for pointing out my illogical methods though.

[SailorRob]

I'm not 'scared' of owning OCA shares. I have enough at present. I am taking the cash this time around as I have more than one company on my watchlist that the money will be going into soon enough.
I do happen to own shares in unlisted property (and am not scared of those investments either) and I understand what you are saying.
However, everyone's circumstances are different and I have some expenses coming up, not sure yet exactly how much they will be, so yes, I consider it prudent to hold some cash until I am over that 'hump' and then I will know what is left over for the next investment or top-up.
Thanks for pointing out my illogical methods though.

The points you have raised and your reasoning make complete sense.

If you have shorter term expenses and other stocks you are looking at purchasing in the short to medium term then it's very prudent doing what you are doing.

[bull....]

The points you have raised and your reasoning make complete sense.

If you have shorter term expenses and other stocks you are looking at purchasing in the short to medium term then it's very prudent doing what you are doing.

Do you own any OCA ?

[Balance]

$90k drop in motu median house prices in 1st year of potential 5 years down cycle :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/a-turbulent-year-house-prices-fall-90k-nationwide-more-risks-on-the-horizon/MBMMUZMOBRFQ3LYEIMFAK7EBXA/

[winner69]

$90k drop in motu median house prices in 1st year of potential 5 years down cycle :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/a-turbulent-year-house-prices-fall-90k-nationwide-more-risks-on-the-horizon/MBMMUZMOBRFQ3LYEIMFAK7EBXA/

Jeez I thought you were going to say that on average every Oceania unit was going to be $90k cheaper

Glad you didn’t

[percy]

From OCA's announcement 23/11/2022
development and resale margins both increased, demonstrating Oceania’s ability to maintain pricing despite residential housing market conditions.

[BlackPeter]

Firstly sorry to the OCA thread for going on about this, you don't have to read it.

Well Blackpeter I consideryou complicit and to me that's worse. You should be disgusted in yourself for sticking up for him.

If you're going to accuse me of using anonymity to smear, send me a private message and I will give you my details, send me a envelope with a return address and a stamp and I will sign my name to the comments I have made.

I have approached him already, not yet in person but let see where this goes first, because I can tell you now that the track record I have requested will NOT be coming as it will show that he hasn't come close to beating what a index fund can do.

He is well connected and knows the tools of his business. I think he is good in recognising the big picture ...

What the hell does this even mean? Can he provide more value than an index fund or not Blackpeter? Blackpeter?????

Do you know? If not, what exactly do you accuse Chris of?

What I accuse him of, and you as well for promoting him is writing an article that very strongly implies that he can 'time sales wisely' and avoid sell downs by observing the darkening sky and that anyone who says otherwise are crap investors.

But lets go to some direct quotes from dear misunderstood Chris;

'The smartest and wealthiest are those who see the coming storms earlier than the television weather forecasters and act decisively.
They know that once everyone is enduring the storms there could be mass selling. They prepare for the day when dark clouds produce awful conditions'.


Salesmen and those who are not accountable, like media commentators, will preach the ''do nothing'' philosophy, the salesmen motivated by self-interest, the media commentators fed by salesmen (and advertisers). One wonders what they do with their personal portfolios.
The past 12 months have illustrated this pattern, foreign money leaving NZ, banks withdrawing, the salesmen still urging people to accept growing losses.
Meanwhile the stock pickers, looking for the strongest performers in a falling market, differentiate themselves from the index-huggers.



So the people he claims are not accountable and acting on their own interest or getting paid, who preach 'do nothing' are wrong and he speculates that what they do with their personal portfolios is different...

Essentially he is saying that he can easily avoid the falling market well ahead of time, anyone preaching do nothing is wrong and actually acting against investors best interest and that stockpickers can do better than the index huggers.

You will note that he carefully constructs all of this without claiming he can do any of it.

BUT he totally failed to see the biggest darkest economic storm clouds of our lifetimes coming and left his clients (even if it was ONE that's plenty bad enough) to get cleaned out in the GFC invested in crap that nobody should ever have touched under ANY circumstances, and furthermore he supposedly had a special model that could measure these risks.

Did he tell one single person to invest in a NZ finance company in 2005, 2006 or 2007? If so then he is a total moron and you should be disgusted with yourself for sticking up for him.

So, some money where our mouths are Blackpeter, lets go. Put anything you want on the table that your boy cannot beat a SP500 index fund over the next 10 years. I want your money not his. If he can beat Berkshire I'll double it.

Waiting for your message and waiting for Chris to provide me with evidence of his ability to dodge falling markets.

I'm sick of seeing people getting taken advantage of and others cheering them along.

* EDIT. Do a google search of Chris Lee GFC and see how many results come back of his firm before you get to what he doesn't want you to see. He has populated Google with results from his business so it pushes the dodgy stuff back to at least page 3. And BlackPeter is totally complicit this.

It is posts like this which can easily destroy a forum. Aggressive, Incompetent, Full of personal attacks, Full of defamations. It appears your hate got the better of you.

Not sure what happened to the Sailor Rob who once used to add value to the forum, but whoever wrote above post - seek help before your hate destroys you.

[peat]

The mistake you have made is thinking OCA equity paper has been depreciating pretty rapidly, when in fact it has been appreciating. You are talking about something totally different... Hint... bigger discount.
You’re deluded

[SailorRob]

Do you own any OCA ?


Yes, I have a few but not nearly enough, I have 95,000 shares at an average of 87c.

I bought a bunch on the 23 March 2020 for 44.5 cents and sold a Month later for 85c which then looked bloody stupid for a while (before you start... I know I know...) this was before I had taken the time to truly appreciate the value of the free billion dollars I was getting but even then I knew 44c was stupid, but it wasn't as stupid as a lot of other stuff for sale at that time.

[SailorRob]

Originally Posted by SailorRob https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=984789#post984789)
The mistake you have made is thinking OCA equity paper has been depreciating pretty rapidly, when in fact it has been appreciating. You are talking about something totally different... Hint... bigger discount.



You’re deluded


Hi Peat, are you suggesting that Oceania AND their auditor is conducting fraud and that this is obvious to everyone and I am thus deluded for not seeing it? Please provide details.

I see a hundred million dollars of extra equity capital on their balance sheet that has been added in cash, I also see it coming in through the cash flow statement. I also notice that the value of their equity capital is 16% higher over the last 18 Months.

This is why I posted that the equity is appreciating.

I'm always willing to learn as I am sure others are too, perhaps I am deluded but some detail would be great.

[ralph]

It is posts like this which can easily destroy a forum. Aggressive, Incompetent, Full of personal attacks, Full of defamations. It appears your hate got the better of you.

Not sure what happened to the Sailor Rob who once used to add value to the forum, but whoever wrote above post - seek help before your hate destroys you.

You should know black peter you are the master of aggressive Incompetent personal attacks' .
Maybe you reap what thee sow B peter

[SailorRob]

It is posts like this which can easily destroy a forum. Aggressive, Incompetent, Full of personal attacks, Full of defamations. It appears your hate got the better of you.

Not sure what happened to the Sailor Rob who once used to add value to the forum, but whoever wrote above post - seek help before your hate destroys you.

Everyone can judge for themselves. I am pretty passionate about calling out shysters. The more research I do (into this) the clearer it gets.

Meanwhile I will sit back and wait for Chris to respond to me with evidence that he has indeed avoided the dark clouds that he so easily sees coming and provided his 'customers' with more value than they could get from buying and HOLDING a simple low cost index fund.

A criterion for defamation is saying something that isn't so.

[Baa_Baa]

Interesting SailorRob, although you've chided the market timers, you perfectly picked your buy on the exact day that OCA bottomed into the covid low.

Then, given a bit of wiggle room as "sold a month later" the price was below your sell price, so can we assume you meant 'sold during the almost perfect three-day peak 14/15/16 April', before it dipped lower for the next four weeks or so? That's incredible market timing, I'd buy your traders timing book!

Did you get your average holding price recently, or way back in 2020 and been holding since?

[peat]

No matter what the value of the equity capital within the books of the company, the value of an investment in OCA 'paper' i.e scrip, shares, equity investment, whatever you want to call it is not currently appreciating, so what you're saying is not so, and yes I think most people looking at their portfolio can indeed judge that for themselves.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marktomarket.asp

But it is interesting your view on why you think the company is appreciating and that reasoning that allows you to have confidence that you're buying deep value. do you think fund managers and professional equity analysts have also figured that out? Why wouldn't the weight of smart money be driving it back up to the value you place on it if that is the case?






Originally Posted by SailorRob https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=984789#post984789)
the equity is appreciating.

I'm always willing to learn as I am sure others are too, perhaps I am deluded but some detail would be great.


Everyone can judge for themselves.


A criterion for defamation is saying something that isn't so.

[SailorRob]

Interesting SailorRob, although you've chided the market timers, you perfectly picked your buy on the exact day that OCA bottomed into the covid low.

Then, given a bit of wiggle room as "sold a month later" the price was below your sell price, so can we assume you meant 'sold during the almost perfect three-day peak 14/15/16 April', before it dipped lower for the next four weeks or so? That's incredible market timing, I'd buy your traders timing book!

Did you get your average holding price recently, or way back in 2020 and been holding since?

What can I say, complete and total luck... No intention of trying to do any timing at all. I remember a director dumping a ton of shares around the same time (over a million $$ for memory) and that rattled me a bit.

Not quite sure what you mean with the 'price was below your sell price' bit, I sold all my OCA on the 20th April 2020 for 85c (all the shares I had bought on the 23/03 as well as a few I had bought on the 20th March for 56c).

Yes my current average holding price was all recently purchased (when I became active on this thread again) and intend to hold for the long term.

So I had followed the company for a while as a trusted friend who understands and follows it to at lease Mavericks level had owned since the IPO and I had seen the Milford beach development and just knew damn well that 40 something cents was ridiculous, but if I had held on I could have sold for much more than 85c. My thinking at the time was that we were far from out of the woods with Covid and I took the quick 100% gain to buy more undervalued stuff in America that I understood better, which I documented on Sharetrader.

As I have often highlighted if I could do what I did with OCA during covid with any kind of regularity then I would be worth hundreds of millions in a very short time.

Yes I absolutely nailed it, but it was sheer luck and actually not that well informed. Anyone claiming skill for picking the exact bottom like I did is a shyster.

I made a huge oil and gas investment through the middle of Covid too which looks now like it was timed perfectly but the truth is I started buying in December 2019, the worst time in history... I was down 60% in less than 3 Months. But I fired a machine gun into the abyss and converted occidental common to warrants at a warrant price of just under $3 and at the exact point where one stock of common bought the most warrants - again total luck. But the averaging down right through the covid dip and recovery wasn't luck at all, anyone could have done it, I bought all the way down and during the recovery.

I am now 100% invested and some natural timing has been forced onto me with redundancy money etc, so again luck getting that right in the middle of a bear market but I certainly didn't wait for things to get better or worse, as soon as I had it I spent it, mostly on Berkshire at and around $265, which could be considered theft.

[SailorRob]

No matter what the value of the equity capital within the books of the company, the value of an investment in OCA 'paper' i.e scrip, shares, equity investment, whatever you want to call it is not currently appreciating, so what you're saying is not so, and yes I think most people looking at their portfolio can indeed judge that for themselves.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marktomarket.asp

But it is interesting your view on why you think the company is appreciating and that reasoning that allows you to have confidence that you're buying deep value. do you think fund managers and professional equity analysts have also figured that out? Why wouldn't the weight of smart money be driving it back up to the value you place on it if that is the case?


Coz it ain't smart money. Fund managers and pro equity analysts get up at 6am to sit in traffic on their way to an office to work for a salary and a boss and they almost all underperform a simple index fund.

If they were smart money then they would be investing their own capital or running a small exclusive partnership and beating the market over time.

I truly believe none of them understand the value of the float and the sheer beauty of the balance sheet.

'Do you think fund managers and professional equity analysts have also figured that out? Why wouldn't the weight of smart money be driving it back up to the value you place on it if that is the case'?

There is a lot of literature around this very point you have raised.

If markets were this efficient then you wouldn't be able to find any value. Fund managers and pro analysts were doing all kinds of incredibly stupid stuff last year whilst shunning the real value that was all over the place.

[SCOTTY]

Thanks for sharing Sailor Rob. Really enjoy your posts :)

[SailorRob]

[QUOTE=peat;984924]No matter what the value of the equity capital within the books of the company, the value of an investment in OCA 'paper' i.e scrip, shares, equity investment, whatever you want to call it is not currently appreciating, so what you're saying is not so

I still disagree, for me the value of the shares is increasing, just the market doesn't agree. This is the very essence of value investing. I'm not just talking about within the books...

This is the quote of the year and yes I think most people looking at their portfolio can indeed judge that for themselves. You are taking your information from Mr Market. Do not do this, don't even look. The market in the short term DOES NOT value your portfolio.

Maybe a takeover offer will settle this.

If you call a dogs tail a leg, it still has 4 legs.

[Curly]

What can I say, complete and total luck... No intention of trying to do any timing at all. I remember a director dumping a ton of shares around the same time (over a million $$ for memory) and that rattled me a bit.

Not quite sure what you mean with the 'price was below your sell price' bit, I sold all my OCA on the 20th April 2020 for 85c (all the shares I had bought on the 23/03 as well as a few I had bought on the 20th March for 56c).

Yes my current average holding price was all recently purchased (when I became active on this thread again) and intend to hold for the long term.

So I had followed the company for a while as a trusted friend who understands and follows it to at lease Mavericks level had owned since the IPO and I had seen the Milford beach development and just knew damn well that 40 something cents was ridiculous, but if I had held on I could have sold for much more than 85c. My thinking at the time was that we were far from out of the woods with Covid and I took the quick 100% gain to buy more undervalued stuff in America that I understood better, which I documented on Sharetrader.

As I have often highlighted if I could do what I did with OCA during covid with any kind of regularity then I would be worth hundreds of millions in a very short time.

Yes I absolutely nailed it, but it was sheer luck and actually not that well informed. Anyone claiming skill for picking the exact bottom like I did is a shyster.

I made a huge oil and gas investment through the middle of Covid too which looks now like it was timed perfectly but the truth is I started buying in December 2019, the worst time in history... I was down 60% in less than 3 Months. But I fired a machine gun into the abyss and converted occidental common to warrants at a warrant price of just under $3 and at the exact point where one stock of common bought the most warrants - again total luck. But the averaging down right through the covid dip and recovery wasn't luck at all, anyone could have done it, I bought all the way down and during the recovery.

I am now 100% invested and some natural timing has been forced onto me with redundancy money etc, so again luck getting that right in the middle of a bear market but I certainly didn't wait for things to get better or worse, as soon as I had it I spent it, mostly on Berkshire at and around $265, which could be considered theft.
Has anyone told you how wonderful you are today Rob?

[bull....]

Coz it ain't smart money. Fund managers and pro equity analysts get up at 6am to sit in traffic on their way to an office to work for a salary and a boss and they almost all underperform a simple index fund.

If they were smart money then they would be investing their own capital or running a small exclusive partnership and beating the market over time.

I truly believe none of them understand the value of the float and the sheer beauty of the balance sheet.

'Do you think fund managers and professional equity analysts have also figured that out? Why wouldn't the weight of smart money be driving it back up to the value you place on it if that is the case'?

There is a lot of literature around this very point you have raised.

If markets were this efficient then you wouldn't be able to find any value. Fund managers and pro analysts were doing all kinds of incredibly stupid stuff last year whilst shunning the real value that was all over the place.

they should aspire to be like bull eh
at home with there 12 screen's raking in the loot , not having to ask the boss to take a toilet break lol and outperforming the index again this yr

[Snoopy]

they should aspire to be like bull eh
at home with there 12 screen's raking in the loot , not having to ask the boss to take a toilet break lol and outperforming the index again this yr

You have screens at home in your toilet as well? Impressive! That is some home setup you have bull.

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

they should aspire to be like bull eh
at home with there 12 screen's raking in the loot , not having to ask the boss to take a toilet break lol and outperforming the index again this yr

*Their....

[Joshuatree]

The divie.Reduced ,or increased?
I had $10,000 to invest in OCA.
When the share price was $1.00 I would have bought 10,000 shares, and received $210 dive ie 2.1 cents x 10,000 shares.
However waiting until the share price hit 80 cents I bought 12,500 with my $10,000 and receiving 1.9 cps, I am getting $237.50 in divies.
A handsome increase of 13%....

Yes i finally bought back in @ 80c cum div
When Beagle is down ramping it raBidly is a helpful indicator :)

[percy]

Just watched Brent Pattison on NZX Virtual investor Event.
Loan term debt including bonds at very low interest rates. [5 to 7 years].
Current [next two years] build at fixed prices.
No need to adjust current unit prices.Compare well with others. [and still a lot lower than surrounding property prices].
Interesting their very upmarket care will attract people who can afford to pay without any Govt help.
Very excited about St Heliers build.
And did mention sale of sites which no longer suited OCA's requirements.
Most impressed with Brent and OCA's prospects.

[Maverick]

Just watched Brent Pattison on NZX Virtual investor Event.
Loan term debt including bonds at very low interest rates. [5 to 7 years].
Current [next two years] build at fixed prices.
No need to adjust current unit prices.Compare well with others. [and still a lot lower than surrounding property prices].
Interesting their very upmarket care will attract people who can afford to pay without any Govt help.
Very excited about St Heliers build.
And did mention sale of sites which no longer suited OCA's requirements.
Most impressed with Brent and OCA's prospects.
Good summary Percy.
It was interesting his comments about the 3month period 1HY were the market “went to sleep” . That’s what killed the profit growth.
He has reaffirmed what has been said previously and by ARV that things are now going well once again. I do like how they arnt reducing prices to try and accelerate sales. (They could both lower the price and entry age to look good for now but those would have poor downstream outcomes).

So provided the market doesn’t “go back to sleep “then those poor HY sales will now occur in 2HY.
It was also pleasing to see when Brent talked about The Helier that he didn’t indicate any delivery date issues. They will have solid handle on delivery date by now and would have changed their language if things were behind schedule.

A nice webcast and it’s good the NZX and OCA made the effort to put it on.

[SailorRob]

Just watched Brent Pattison on NZX Virtual investor Event.
Loan term debt including bonds at very low interest rates. [5 to 7 years].
Current [next two years] build at fixed prices.
No need to adjust current unit prices.Compare well with others. [and still a lot lower than surrounding property prices].
Interesting their very upmarket care will attract people who can afford to pay without any Govt help.
Very excited about St Heliers build.
And did mention sale of sites which no longer suited OCA's requirements.
Most impressed with Brent and OCA's prospects.


When was that released percy?

[ronaldson]

Also, DRIP strike price now announced as $0.8041. This will be a good dividend to have been in the Dividend Reinvestment Program as relative to the current on-market share price of 85c you are benefitting significantly. Such a gap/margin in % terms is rare!

[percy]

When was that released percy?

This is a reminder that "NZX Virtual Investor Event - 6 December" will begin in 1 Hour on:

Tue, Dec 6, 2022 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM NZDT

Add to Calendar: Outlook® Calendar | Google Calendar™ | iCal®

Please send your questions, comments and feedback to: informexchangegrow@nzx.com

How to Join the Webinar

1. Click the link to join the webinar at the specified time and date:


PS.It will be available sometime on youtube.Sorry do not know when or how to provide a link.

[justakiwi]

I think I read somewhere that it was being recorded for anyone who was unable to take part. Any idea where the recording would be posted?


This is a reminder that "NZX Virtual Investor Event - 6 December" will begin in 1 Hour on:

Tue, Dec 6, 2022 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM NZDT

Add to Calendar: Outlook® Calendar | Google Calendar™ | iCal®

Please send your questions, comments and feedback to: informexchangegrow@nzx.com

How to Join the Webinar

1. Click the link to join the webinar at the specified time and date:


PS.It will be available sometime on youtube.Sorry do not know when or how to provide a link.

[Snow Leopard]

they turn up here ==> https://www.youtube.com/@NzxLimited/videos <== eventually.

[SailorRob]

I think I read somewhere that it was being recorded for anyone who was unable to take part. Any idea where the recording would be posted?


They have a youtube channel where you can find previous ones so I assume it will be posted there.

https://www.youtube.com/@NzxLimited/videos

[justakiwi]

Thank you! I did watch it but good to know where to find future webinars I'm unable to watch.



They have a youtube channel where you can find previous ones so I assume it will be posted there.

https://www.youtube.com/@NzxLimited/videos



they turn up here ==> https://www.youtube.com/@NzxLimited/videos <== eventually.

[Maverick]

One other thing that's worth noting.
Brent has never mentioned throttling back the build rate, in fact hes saying business as usual.

It's well worth recognizing that the main future growth of any RV comes from adding new builds each year.
SUM must be at demand capacity by now of about 500-600 ( in NZ ar least)
RYM have got everyone worried about their ability to finance more things.
ARV has said they are retarding their deliveries.
OCA are maintaining their 300 objective which can be paid for from the medicine they ( we) took the last year or two to shore up their balance sheet in anticipation.

To me given OCAs relatively small size, it is placed ahead of its peers with the greatest growth position.

He also repeated they plan a 30% margin on top of their capital back when a delivery is sold down.
That means they should be forever capital flush once the first deliveries start maturing.
They will have the choice to ramp up deliveries further or pay down debt. Not a bad place to be.

[Snow Leopard]

DRiP shares at $0.8041 ?
Thank you.

[percy]

Today's NZX event presentation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v50PygLI_kI

[Gerald]

One other thing that's worth noting.
Brent has never mentioned throttling back the build rate, in fact hes saying business as usual.


This would seem to be a silly approach? Why would you continue to develop properties only to have the equity market instantly value them at $.60 on the dollar? This would seem to be a value destructive approach.

Surely a wiser way would be to plough proceeds from sales into accretive buybacks that increase NTA per share. That would require some humble pie from the big cheeses and probably won't happen as it lacks the prestige of building flash new shiny buildings and cutting ribbons.

[bull....]

another sign of headwinds for the sector

An ANZ spokesperson told OneRoof the rate is going up to 8.6% next Monday due to it regularly reviewing its stress test rate to ensure it remains responsible and reflects the current interest rate environment

Based on October’s national median house price of $825,000, buyers with a 20% deposit would have last year been eligible to borrow $660,000, but under the new stress test rate this will plunge to $480,000. So instead of being able to buy a $825,000 house, they can now only spend $645,000

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42772

so harder to buy a house , combined with lower house prices ..... hammer time. fancy presentations are just that

[bull....]

another nail in the coffin

New retirement village model shares capital gains with residents

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/retirement/130665523/new-retirement-village-model-shares-capital-gains-with-residents

fletcher building going to disrupt the sector big time

Its Vivid Living villages would have a 15% deferred management fee, which was lower than most traditional villages. Ryman had a fee of 20%, and the sector average was 30%, according to analysts.
Fletchers would pay back 10% of the residents’ advance within five days of an ORA ending, not charge weekly fees after the resident had left, and would buy back the home within four months.

oca cashflows :scared:

[SailorRob]

This would seem to be a silly approach? Why would you continue to develop properties only to have the equity market instantly value them at $.60 on the dollar? This would seem to be a value destructive approach.

Surely a wiser way would be to plough proceeds from sales into accretive buybacks that increase NTA per share. That would require some humble pie from the big cheeses and probably won't happen as it lacks the prestige of building flash new shiny buildings and cutting ribbons.


I don't disagree on the buy backs, that would be a phenomenal capital allocation, would it be better than continued development is a more difficult question to answer.

Specifically on the 'silly approach' developing properties - I never EVER want my managers to change their business decisions (aside from buybacks or equity raisings) based on the share price. That would be idiocy. There is no value being destroyed due to the marking down of asset values in the share price. The only way value is destroyed is if the future cash flows of the business are impaired due to current decisions.

Some bespectacled fund manager waking up in Auckland and realising he has wet the bed again should not affect the build rate that OCA management have decided on as the best course of generating future cash flows.

I'm going to repeat this as there are so many here that don't get this - There is no value being destroyed due to the marking down of asset values in the share price.

[bull....]

I don't disagree on the buy backs, that would be a phenomenal capital allocation, would it be better than continued development is a more difficult question to answer.

Specifically on the 'silly approach' developing properties - I never EVER want my managers to change their business decisions (aside from buybacks or equity raisings) based on the share price. That would be idiocy. There is no value being destroyed due to the marking down of asset values in the share price. The only way value is destroyed is if the future cash flows of the business are impaired due to current decisions.

Some bespectacled fund manager waking up in Auckland and realising he has wet the bed again should not affect the build rate that OCA management have decided on as the best course of generating future cash flows.

I'm going to repeat this as there are so many here that don't get this - There is no value being destroyed due to the marking down of asset values in the share price.

lol only investors capital being destroyed ..... but that alright eh haha as you say you can just keep buying more as it gets cheaper lol cause your getting a bargain :scared:

[SailorRob]

lol only investors capital being destroyed ..... but that alright eh haha as you say you can just keep buying more as it gets cheaper lol cause your getting a bargain :scared:


It all depends on what your 12 screens tell you at the end of the day.

[SailorRob]

another nail in the coffin

New retirement village model shares capital gains with residents

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/retirement/130665523/new-retirement-village-model-shares-capital-gains-with-residents

fletcher building going to disrupt the sector big time

Its Vivid Living villages would have a 15% deferred management fee, which was lower than most traditional villages. Ryman had a fee of 20%, and the sector average was 30%, according to analysts.
Fletchers would pay back 10% of the residents’ advance within five days of an ORA ending, not charge weekly fees after the resident had left, and would buy back the home within four months.

oca cashflows :scared:


Like comparing a Kindergarden with OCA... A totally different business.

[Beau]

another nail in the coffin

New retirement village model shares capital gains with residents

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/retirement/130665523/new-retirement-village-model-shares-capital-gains-with-residents

fletcher building going to disrupt the sector big time

Its Vivid Living villages would have a 15% deferred management fee, which was lower than most traditional villages. Ryman had a fee of 20%, and the sector average was 30%, according to analysts.
Fletchers would pay back 10% of the residents’ advance within five days of an ORA ending, not charge weekly fees after the resident had left, and would buy back the home within four months.

oca cashflows :scared:

No amenities you might well buy into a council flat.

[Antipodean]

another nail in the coffin

New retirement village model shares capital gains with residents

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/retirement/130665523/new-retirement-village-model-shares-capital-gains-with-residents

fletcher building going to disrupt the sector big time

Its Vivid Living villages would have a 15% deferred management fee, which was lower than most traditional villages. Ryman had a fee of 20%, and the sector average was 30%, according to analysts.
Fletchers would pay back 10% of the residents’ advance within five days of an ORA ending, not charge weekly fees after the resident had left, and would buy back the home within four months.

oca cashflows :scared:

Higher initial prices and far fewer facilities or care means this is more of a niche product.

[bull....]

think your all missing the point

as the retirement commission said the other day over 50% of retiree's will be classified as poor in the next 10 yrs in NZ ( inflation cost of living may well speed this up )
So in effect less people will be able to afford the other retirement villages ie market % will decline and all these existing villages will be fighting over a smaller pool of people
FBU is moving in to fill the gap where the most retiree's will sit in the future and i see them eventually offering cheap accomdation options as well

[justakiwi]

Nope. As I said in the other thread, people in that category want the option of care if and when they need it. They do not want to have to move elsewhere if they need rest home or hospital level care at some point. There is not even an indication that this village will provide nursing coverage/oversight. It seems to me that it is a village of units, and nothing more. I will be in your "poor" category down the track. I'd far rather have a standard care bed at OCA than one of these units with no onsite support. Besides which, you are missing the point. Poor people are not going to have the money to get into one of these in the first place. Where are they getting their $700,000 from?

Not going to be hugely attractive in my opinion.


think your all missing the point

as the retirement commission said the other day over 50% of retiree's will be classified as poor in the next 10 yrs in NZ ( inflation cost of living may well speed this up )
So in effect less people will be able to afford the other retirement villages ie market % will decline ,
FBU is moving in to fill the gap where the most retiree's will sit in the future

[Rawz]

think your all missing the point

as the retirement commission said the other day over 50% of retiree's will be classified as poor in the next 10 yrs in NZ ( inflation cost of living may well speed this up )
So in effect less people will be able to afford the other retirement villages ie market % will decline and all these existing villages will be fighting over a smaller pool of people
FBU is moving in to fill the gap where the most retiree's will sit in the future

so doesnt really sound like it competes with OCA then?

Like does Mercedes compete with Honda?

[SailorRob]

think your all missing the point

as the retirement commission said the other day over 50% of retiree's will be classified as poor in the next 10 yrs in NZ ( inflation cost of living may well speed this up )
So in effect less people will be able to afford the other retirement villages ie market % will decline ,
FBU is moving in to fill the gap where the most retiree's will sit in the future


*You're

Ok everyone start allocating your capital based off what the retirement commission has supposedly said. With that insight and 12 screens working for you, it would be hard to mess it up.

[bull....]

*You're

Ok everyone start allocating your capital based off what the retirement commission has supposedly said. With that insight and 12 screens working for you, it would be hard to mess it up.

yes i have started allocating funds to FBU

[Rawz]

there is plenty of consumer surplus above the equilibrium

[bull....]

Nope. As I said in the other thread, people in that category want the option of care if and when they need it. They do not want to have to move elsewhere if they need rest home or hospital level care at some point. There is not even an indication that this village will provide nursing coverage/oversight. It seems to me that it is a village of units, and nothing more. I will be in your "poor" category down the track. I'd far rather have a standard care bed at OCA than one of these units with no onsite support. Besides which, you are missing the point. Poor people are not going to have the money to get into one of these in the first place. Where are they getting their $700,000 from?

Not going to be hugely attractive in my opinion.

i thought OCA and ARV were moving away from only care beds?

[bull....]

there is plenty of consumer surplus above the equilibrium

at the moment but we are talking in like 10yrs time .... sailor rob could use his calculator to see how inflation robs your wealth and how many people will sit above that line with inflation running at say 5% per yr and you not achieving that level or more of investment returns

[winner69]

Bit of a worry that this Brent guy is so adored ….almost like a celestial being …godlike status.

[SailorRob]

at the moment but we are talking in like 10yrs time .... sailor rob could use his calculator to see how inflation robs your wealth and how many people will sit above that line with inflation running at say 5% per yr and you not achieving that level or more of investment returns


Most calculations I do in my head but even my calculator cannot tell me what the future rate of inflation is or even if there will be any.

I seem to remember Orr in 2019 ordering the banks to immediately prepare their systems for negative interest rates.

[BlackPeter]

This would seem to be a silly approach? Why would you continue to develop properties only to have the equity market instantly value them at $.60 on the dollar? This would seem to be a value destructive approach.

Surely a wiser way would be to plough proceeds from sales into accretive buybacks that increase NTA per share. That would require some humble pie from the big cheeses and probably won't happen as it lacks the prestige of building flash new shiny buildings and cutting ribbons.

Maybe its just the view of an investor vs the view of a short term trader?

They say in Palestine: when apricots are cheap, plant apricot trees.

The reason? Nobody is looking after orchards when the fruit are too cheap, farmers will tear the trees out and change to other crops. Guess what happens with the price of apricots when your new trees are mature?

Maybe there is something retirement units and apricots have in common?

[justakiwi]

As I have said in the past, you do not fully understand OCA, and this comment proves that. Brent stated in yesterdays webinar that OCA will always provide some level of standard care beds, because they want all New Zealanders to have access to standard, affordable care should they need it. There was also a comment made about the Waterford site - they will be introducing some care beds (can't remember the exact wording here) and their current residents are already expressing excitement about that. Which confirms my comments that people want to have the option of care provided on site so they can have continuity of care throughout the rest of their life should they, or their spouse, need it.


i thought OCA and ARV were moving away from only care beds?

[justakiwi]

Much more worrying that you seem unable to make your own mind up about this company. Either that, or your constant flipping sides, is nothing more than game playing.


Bit of a worry that this Brent guy is so adored ….almost like a celestial being …godlike status.

[YoungBull]

another nail in the coffin

New retirement village model shares capital gains with residents

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/retirement/130665523/new-retirement-village-model-shares-capital-gains-with-residents

fletcher building going to disrupt the sector big time

Its Vivid Living villages would have a 15% deferred management fee, which was lower than most traditional villages. Ryman had a fee of 20%, and the sector average was 30%, according to analysts.
Fletchers would pay back 10% of the residents’ advance within five days of an ORA ending, not charge weekly fees after the resident had left, and would buy back the home within four months.

oca cashflows :scared:

You're such an interesting poster to follow Bull! You don't present a balanced perspective of the facts, which suggests you may be more interested in appearing 'correct' than actually being correct. Implicit bias can ruin an investor!

In terms of Fletcher's village - quite the interesting update. Have you considered whether sharing capital gains may actually be reasonable in this context, Bull? Are there any distinguishing features to the traditional retirement village?

If we look at the article, we see the shared capital gains approach is (likely) only possible because the village operates on a 'low cost' model. We need to consider whether sharing capital gains would continue to be sustainable if it offered traditional retirement amenities.

Further, the article states these villages are designed to 'plug the hole' between home ownership and a traditional retirement home. This means your target client will need to spend a large sum of money when they finally do move into a traditional retirement home. It will be very hard to convince that person to use your service if you are going to take all the capital gains, as they risk not being able to afford the retirement village when the time comes.

Finally, the village does not offer care, does not offer any ancillary services, and does not offer any amenities. When considering all of these factors, the 'village' appear to be more in line with traditional home ownership than an actual retirement village. In that context Bull, it would almost be unreasonable not to share capital gains with the resident? Otherwise, you are effectively saying: use our service, which is basically like owning a home, but you don't get any of the benefits of owning a home. The article states itself: the Fletcher's village is designed to operate as a 'downsize' option similar to home ownership.

Next, you have implied that this is a nail in the coffin for the retirement sector. Further, you posted this on an Oceania thread, implying this is a threat to Oceania. Have you considered whether these services are actually operating in the same corner of the market, Bull?

Let's examine. Oceania offers a full care, full amenity, high quality premium offering. By contrast, Fletchers village offers no care, no amenities, very few ancillary services and certainly not a premium offering. Do you realistically consider that a potential client of Oceania will actually consider this village as an alternative? Oceania clients use its service because they consider they will eventually require care and want an upmarket service. Fletcher does not offer any of those elements. You could argue that Fletcher could offer these services down the track, but we know they cannot. They have rabbit holed themselves into a low-cost model.

Bull, I notice your post does not consider any of these aspects (regardless of whether they are correct or not). Did you potentially just post it without actually applying any critical thought? Very curious to hear your opinion - always looking for alternative evidence to test my investment thesis.

[Perky]

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot…hold on to your hats..we got 2 Bulls in the ring..

[SailorRob]

Whiskey Foxtrot Tango…hold on to your hats..we got 2 Bulls in the ring..


No we do not.

We have one BULL and one little deformed calf.

Whoever youngbull is... a true legend.

Great post.

[bull....]

You're such an interesting poster to follow Bull! You don't present a balanced perspective of the facts, which suggests you may be more interested in appearing 'correct' than actually being correct. Implicit bias can ruin an investor!

In terms of Fletcher's village - quite the interesting update. Have you considered whether sharing capital gains may actually be reasonable in this context, Bull? Are there any distinguishing features to the traditional retirement village?

If we look at the article, we see the shared capital gains approach is (likely) only possible because the village operates on a 'low cost' model. We need to consider whether sharing capital gains would continue to be sustainable if it offered traditional retirement amenities.

Further, the article states these villages are designed to 'plug the hole' between home ownership and a traditional retirement home. This means your target client will need to spend a large sum of money when they finally do move into a traditional retirement home. It will be very hard to convince that person to use your service if you are going to take all the capital gains, as they risk not being able to afford the retirement village when the time comes.

Finally, the village does not offer care, does not offer any ancillary services, and does not offer any amenities. When considering all of these factors, the 'village' appear to be more in line with traditional home ownership than an actual retirement village. In that context Bull, it would almost be unreasonable not to share capital gains with the resident? Otherwise, you are effectively saying: use our service, which is basically like owning a home, but you don't get any of the benefits of owning a home. The article states itself: the Fletcher's village is designed to operate as a 'downsize' option similar to home ownership.

Next, you have implied that this is a nail in the coffin for the retirement sector. Further, you posted this on an Oceania thread, implying this is a threat to Oceania. Have you considered whether these services are actually operating in the same corner of the market, Bull?

Let's examine. Oceania offers a full care, full amenity, high quality premium offering. By contrast, Fletchers village offers no care, no amenities, very few ancillary services and certainly not a premium offering. Do you realistically consider that a potential client of Oceania will actually consider this village as an alternative? Oceania clients use its service because they consider they will eventually require care and want an upmarket service. Fletcher does not offer any of those elements. You could argue that Fletcher could offer these services down the track, but we know they cannot. They have rabbit holed themselves into a low-cost model.

Bull, I notice your post does not consider any of these aspects (regardless of whether they are correct or not). Did you potentially just post it without actually applying any critical thought? Very curious to hear your opinion - always looking for alternative evidence to test my investment thesis.

You're such an interesting poster to follow Bull! You don't present a balanced perspective of the facts, which suggests you may be more interested in appearing 'correct' than actually being correct. Implicit bias can ruin an investor!


In terms of Fletcher's village - quite the interesting update. Have you considered whether sharing capital gains may actually be reasonable in this context, Bull? Are there any distinguishing features to the traditional retirement village?


If we look at the article, we see the shared capital gains approach is (likely) only possible because the village operates on a 'low cost' model. We need to consider whether sharing capital gains would continue to be sustainable if it offered traditional retirement amenities.


fbu being the builder will have synergies in development other operators would never be able to compete on. so if there model works they can in the future scale up or down the offering

Further, the article states these villages are designed to 'plug the hole' between home ownership and a traditional retirement home. This means your target client will need to spend a large sum of money when they finally do move into a traditional retirement home. It will be very hard to convince that person to use your service if you are going to take all the capital gains, as they risk not being able to afford the retirement village when the time comes.

exactly fbu offering if works will differniate them big time ffrom other operators , other operators may have to change there models to compete if fbu successful which means there cashflows will implode.


Finally, the village does not offer care, does not offer any ancillary services, and does not offer any amenities. When considering all of these factors, the 'village' appear to be more in line with traditional home ownership than an actual retirement village. In that context Bull, it would almost be unreasonable not to share capital gains with the resident? Otherwise, you are effectively saying: use our service, which is basically like owning a home, but you don't get any of the benefits of owning a home. The article states itself: the Fletcher's village is designed to operate as a 'downsize' option similar to home ownership.
if there model works they can scale up or down offerings and target other companies


Next, you have implied that this is a nail in the coffin for the retirement sector. Further, you posted this on an Oceania thread, implying this is a threat to Oceania. Have you considered whether these services are actually operating in the same corner of the market, Bull?

as above if there model works cashflows will implode if others are forced to adopt no cap gains , less fees etc


Let's examine. Oceania offers a full care, full amenity, high quality premium offering. By contrast, Fletchers village offers no care, no amenities, very few ancillary services and certainly not a premium offering. Do you realistically consider that a potential client of Oceania will actually consider this village as an alternative? Oceania clients use its service because they consider they will eventually require care and want an upmarket service. Fletcher does not offer any of those elements. You could argue that Fletcher could offer these services down the track, but we know they cannot. They have rabbit holed themselves into a low-cost model.


no they have the synergies ... massive being the builder


Bull, I notice your post does not consider any of these aspects (regardless of whether they are correct or not). Did you potentially just post it without actually applying any critical thought? Very curious to hear your opinion - always looking for alternative evidence to test my investment thesis.

have to look at the big picture , ie in the future not the short term for long term investing. market will be carved up even more if fbu model works meaning less customers for the others to fight over and cashflow problems if the y have to change there fee model's combined with what i say about covid and financials of retiree's in 10 yr due to inflation etc. fbu has the power to disrupt the sector big time

[Rawz]

YoungBull laying the smackdown on dad lol

[SailorRob]

I've reposted Bulls reply here with a different color, makes it easier to read.

To figure out Bulls reply from Young Bulls post was not difficult, I simply separated the sentences that appeared to be written by a dyslexic child out from the rest




You're such an interesting poster to follow Bull! You don't present a balanced perspective of the facts, which suggests you may be more interested in appearing 'correct' than actually being correct. Implicit bias can ruin an investor!


In terms of Fletcher's village - quite the interesting update. Have you considered whether sharing capital gains may actually be reasonable in this context, Bull? Are there any distinguishing features to the traditional retirement village?


If we look at the article, we see the shared capital gains approach is (likely) only possible because the village operates on a 'low cost' model. We need to consider whether sharing capital gains would continue to be sustainable if it offered traditional retirement amenities.


fbu being the builder will have synergies in development other operators would never be able to compete on. so if there model works they can in the future scale up or down the offering

Further, the article states these villages are designed to 'plug the hole' between home ownership and a traditional retirement home. This means your target client will need to spend a large sum of money when they finally do move into a traditional retirement home. It will be very hard to convince that person to use your service if you are going to take all the capital gains, as they risk not being able to afford the retirement village when the time comes.

exactly fbu offering if works will differniate them big time ffrom other operators , other operators may have to change there models to compete if fbu successful which means there cashflows will implode.


Finally, the village does not offer care, does not offer any ancillary services, and does not offer any amenities. When considering all of these factors, the 'village' appear to be more in line with traditional home ownership than an actual retirement village. In that context Bull, it would almost be unreasonable not to share capital gains with the resident? Otherwise, you are effectively saying: use our service, which is basically like owning a home, but you don't get any of the benefits of owning a home. The article states itself: the Fletcher's village is designed to operate as a 'downsize' option similar to home ownership.
if there model works they can scale up or down offerings and target other companies


Next, you have implied that this is a nail in the coffin for the retirement sector. Further, you posted this on an Oceania thread, implying this is a threat to Oceania. Have you considered whether these services are actually operating in the same corner of the market, Bull?

as above if there model works cashflows will implode if others are forced to adopt no cap gains , less fees etc


Let's examine. Oceania offers a full care, full amenity, high quality premium offering. By contrast, Fletchers village offers no care, no amenities, very few ancillary services and certainly not a premium offering. Do you realistically consider that a potential client of Oceania will actually consider this village as an alternative? Oceania clients use its service because they consider they will eventually require care and want an upmarket service. Fletcher does not offer any of those elements. You could argue that Fletcher could offer these services down the track, but we know they cannot. They have rabbit holed themselves into a low-cost model.


no they have the synergies ... massive being the builder


Bull, I notice your post does not consider any of these aspects (regardless of whether they are correct or not). Did you potentially just post it without actually applying any critical thought? Very curious to hear your opinion - always looking for alternative evidence to test my investment thesis.

[YoungBull]

You're such an interesting poster to follow Bull! You don't present a balanced perspective of the facts, which suggests you may be more interested in appearing 'correct' than actually being correct. Implicit bias can ruin an investor!


In terms of Fletcher's village - quite the interesting update. Have you considered whether sharing capital gains may actually be reasonable in this context, Bull? Are there any distinguishing features to the traditional retirement village?


If we look at the article, we see the shared capital gains approach is (likely) only possible because the village operates on a 'low cost' model. We need to consider whether sharing capital gains would continue to be sustainable if it offered traditional retirement amenities.


fbu being the builder will have synergies in development other operators would never be able to compete on. so if there model works they can in the future scale up or down the offering

Further, the article states these villages are designed to 'plug the hole' between home ownership and a traditional retirement home. This means your target client will need to spend a large sum of money when they finally do move into a traditional retirement home. It will be very hard to convince that person to use your service if you are going to take all the capital gains, as they risk not being able to afford the retirement village when the time comes.

exactly fbu offering if works will differniate them big time ffrom other operators , other operators may have to change there models to compete if fbu successful which means there cashflows will implode.


Finally, the village does not offer care, does not offer any ancillary services, and does not offer any amenities. When considering all of these factors, the 'village' appear to be more in line with traditional home ownership than an actual retirement village. In that context Bull, it would almost be unreasonable not to share capital gains with the resident? Otherwise, you are effectively saying: use our service, which is basically like owning a home, but you don't get any of the benefits of owning a home. The article states itself: the Fletcher's village is designed to operate as a 'downsize' option similar to home ownership.
if there model works they can scale up or down offerings and target other companies


Next, you have implied that this is a nail in the coffin for the retirement sector. Further, you posted this on an Oceania thread, implying this is a threat to Oceania. Have you considered whether these services are actually operating in the same corner of the market, Bull?

as above if there model works cashflows will implode if others are forced to adopt no cap gains , less fees etc


Let's examine. Oceania offers a full care, full amenity, high quality premium offering. By contrast, Fletchers village offers no care, no amenities, very few ancillary services and certainly not a premium offering. Do you realistically consider that a potential client of Oceania will actually consider this village as an alternative? Oceania clients use its service because they consider they will eventually require care and want an upmarket service. Fletcher does not offer any of those elements. You could argue that Fletcher could offer these services down the track, but we know they cannot. They have rabbit holed themselves into a low-cost model.


no they have the synergies ... massive being the builder


Bull, I notice your post does not consider any of these aspects (regardless of whether they are correct or not). Did you potentially just post it without actually applying any critical thought? Very curious to hear your opinion - always looking for alternative evidence to test my investment thesis.

have to look at the big picture , ie in the future not the short term for long term investing. market will be carved up even more if fbu model works meaning less customers for the others to fight over and cashflow problems if the y have to change there fee model's combined with what i say about covid and financials of retiree's in 10 yr due to inflation etc. fbu has the power to disrupt the sector big time

Hi Bull - thanks for your prompt response.

You certainly raise some valid points.

Effectively, you are saying that Fletcher's development margins on new builds would be much higher than other retirement operators. Of course, capital gains, fees and ORAs are all repeating sources of income. As Maverick points out, the real money in a retirement village is made on resales.

Based on your logic, Fletchers would initially make more money on a build (compared to other operators), but that same build would become less and less profitable (compared to other operator models) each time it is resold. Other operators would eventually catch up, and then overtake Fletchers profitability over the life of the village. Fletchers may recover some of that ground by saving costs on the building maintenance, but I would expect that amount to be negligible.

Amenities are an ongoing cost. Under Fletchers model, a village's profitability would gradually decrease (in comparison to other models) while their amenities costs stay constant.

Are these assumptions correct? If so, would Fletchers (over the long term) actually not be able to fund amenities in their villages? If so, would their villages therefore not be able to offer the same service as OCA?

Keen to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

[Walter]

I can't really see an advantage to these Fletcher houses over any other low maintenance unit on the market. What am I missing?

[bull....]

Hi Bull - thanks for your prompt response.

You certainly raise some valid points.

Effectively, you are saying that Fletcher's development margins on new builds would be much higher than other retirement operators. Of course, capital gains, fees and ORAs are all repeating sources of income. As Maverick points out, the real money in a retirement village is made on resales.

correct at the moment
but my assumptions are that if fletcher's model proves successful the pool of people available may well decline substantially for the other operators to fight over, which would mean in the long run smaller pool of profits for each operator to fight over as they increase supply and demand declines. i know for a fact from living in a rest home as a young person ( 1 of 4 who lived there ) that most of the residents in the homes loved having younger people around and some even suggested they wished they could escape being surrounded by half zombie like residents. having amenities in these other villages means jack if your are a zombie or surrounded by half zombies which helps speed up the process of you becoming a zombie.
thats the gap fbu is filling retirement village living with younger more able people who will help you stay younger and live longer. while there re-sale profits may be lower initially i imagine as scale builds that become's less important

Based on your logic, Fletchers would initially make more money on a build (compared to other operators), but that same build would become less and less profitable (compared to other operator models) each time it is resold. Other operators would eventually catch up, and then overtake Fletchers profitability over the life of the village. Fletchers may recover some of that ground by saving costs on the building maintenance, but I would expect that amount to be negligible.

your assuming that public pressure ( which is increasing ) and fletcher's new model dont pressure current operators to have to change there fee structure's in some way or share cap gain's. if it occurs and current operator's have to change there fee model like i say they will never be able to compete against fbu

Amenities are an ongoing cost. Under Fletchers model, a village's profitability would gradually decrease (in comparison to other models) while their amenities costs stay constant.

only for the current operators. as fbu gets scale they become more profitable. by the way fbu do have care available for residents as an outsourced model available as you need it

Are these assumptions correct? If so, would Fletchers (over the long term) actually not be able to fund amenities in their villages? If so, would their villages therefore not be able to offer the same service as OCA?

looks like fbu will do outsourced model ie pay as you need for extra amenities which makes better sense as why pay for something your never use ie how many people actually use a pool?

Keen to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

i put some thoughts in the reply above ... these are my thought's only and as such it is how i position my portfolio .

anyway this is not going affect current operators in the short term ( unless regulatory action happens around fee's etc ) but over time as fbu scale up and if there model is successful.
investing is about making assumptions and positioning correctly. ie selling out of retirement sector when headwind's were evident and being patient to re-enter when tail wind's become evident again. in this case for me it's about how the regulatory environment plays out and now how fbu model goes. there's no rush headwind's at the moment are not going away quickly. in the meantime current operator's will continue to see there cashflows sqeezed by cost inflation and falling property value's so dont bank on share price's going to the moon anytime soon.

[Bjauck]

Nope. As I said in the other thread, people in that category want the option of care if and when they need it. They do not want to have to move elsewhere if they need rest home or hospital level care at some point. There is not even an indication that this village will provide nursing coverage/oversight. It seems to me that it is a village of units, and nothing more. I will be in your "poor" category down the track. I'd far rather have a standard care bed at OCA than one of these units with no onsite support. Besides which, you are missing the point. Poor people are not going to have the money to get into one of these in the first place. Where are they getting their $700,000 from?

Not going to be hugely attractive in my opinion. I think they offer monthly medical checks. It is definitely not a full service type village - more independent accommodation with a minimum age limit. Also, it is unlikely that we will see the same level of house price appreciation for a long time, as previously there was a systemic drop in interest rates. So the capital gains sharing (after refurbishment costs) model could be a moot point for many years. The lower deferred management fee percentage is not so comparatively attractive if the original buy in price does not have as big a discount to freehold house values as other Villages anyway.

If you have an ORA unit at an Oceania village, do they guarantee that you can move into that village’s rest home or hospital when you need to? Some people who need extra care would probably need that extra care quickly (like after a fall or deteriorating medical condition) and may not be able to sit very long on a waiting list until a vacancy opens up.

[justakiwi]

No, I doubt they can guarantee you a rest home or hospital level bed, but I assume you might go to the top of the waiting list as an existing ORA client?

Either way, if someone had a major fall requiring transport to hospital, they may go to an AT&R (Assessment, treatment and rehab) ward to rehabilitate, before returning to their unit. It may be that if they were then assessed as needing hospital level care, that care could be provided in their unit temporarily, until a care bed/care suite became available.

This is why the care suite model is going to be a game-changer. If you go with the care suite you are guaranteed increasing levels of care will be provided within that suite, which means you can effectively stay there until you die. The only exception to that rule, will (I think) be if you required dementia level care at some point. If someone developed issues with wandering, aggressive behaviours etc, this would probably not be able to be managed in a care suite situation. A lot would depend on the level of dementia and whether or not the person was living with a spouse. Some people with dementia would be OK staying in a care suite, but a lot would not be.

All of this is just guesswork on my part, so I could be way off base. Mav and Ferg might have some actual knowledge of how this would work.




In any case, if you have an ORA unit at an Oceania village, do they guarantee that you can move into that village’s rest home or hospital when you need to? Some people who need extra care would probably need that extra care quickly (like after a fall or deteriorating medical condition) and not be able to sit very long on a waiting list until a vacancy opens up.

[Ferg]

I can't really see an advantage to these Fletcher houses over any other low maintenance unit on the market. What am I missing?
I don't think you are missing anything. I see this as a vertical integration play by FBU whereby they cut out the middlemen. Nothing more or less and it is possibly aiming at a slightly different target market to the RVs.

[Habits]

Hi Bull
You sign off your posts with "hammertime". Strangely it only shows when I am logged out.
Are you saying something about capitulation or a plunge in shares/markets
Thnks

[BlackPeter]

Hi Bull
You sign off your posts with "hammertime". Strangely it only shows when I am logged out.
Are you saying something about capitulation or a plunge in shares/markets
Thnks

I think it is just one of his favorite words and activities. He loves to hammer down any stock on a down trend.

[SailorRob]

i put some thoughts in the reply above ... these are my thought's only and as such it is how i position my portfolio .

anyway this is not going affect current operators in the short term ( unless regulatory action happens around fee's etc ) but over time as fbu scale up and if there model is successful.
investing is about making assumptions and positioning correctly. ie selling out of retirement sector when headwind's were evident and being patient to re-enter when tail wind's become evident again. in this case for me it's about how the regulatory environment plays out and now how fbu model goes. there's no rush headwind's at the moment are not going away quickly. in the meantime current operator's will continue to see there cashflows sqeezed by cost inflation and falling property value's so dont bank on share price's going to the moon anytime soon.


Wrong... Investing is about having 12 screens and being able to make money off any chart, anywhere, at any time.

Call it 'dial a dollar'

[SailorRob]

Bull*&%$ - thats the gap fbu is filling retirement village living with younger more able people who will help you stay younger and live longer.

Haha like.... building apartments?? Wow what a genius idea.

[bull....]

sailor you dont need to take your frustrations about your faulty investment calculator out on me im only posting my assumptions , and as some of us know making correct assumptions and being an early bird and right in those assumptions makes you the most money unlike being part of the herd

[nztx]

Is it safe to be reading this thread yet .. or is a diving suit, hard helmet and deflector shield needed ? ;)

[Maverick]

No, I doubt they can guarantee you a rest home or hospital level bed, but I assume you might go to the top of the waiting list as an existing ORA client?

Either way, if someone had a major fall requiring transport to hospital, they may go to an AT&R (Assessment, treatment and rehab) ward to rehabilitate, before returning to their unit. It may be that if they were then assessed as needing hospital level care, that care could be provided in their unit temporarily, until a care bed/care suite became available.

This is why the care suite model is going to be a game-changer. If you go with the care suite you are guaranteed increasing levels of care will be provided within that suite, which means you can effectively stay there until you die. The only exception to that rule, will (I think) be if you required dementia level care at some point. If someone developed issues with wandering, aggressive behaviours etc, this would probably not be able to be managed in a care suite situation. A lot would depend on the level of dementia and whether or not the person was living with a spouse. Some people with dementia would be OK staying in a care suite, but a lot would not be.

All of this is just guesswork on my part, so I could be way off base. Mav and Ferg might have some actual knowledge of how this would work.
Said like you worked there JAK. OCA is not structured at all well towards dementia. Your guesswork is spot on:t_up:.

[SailorRob]

sailor you dont need to take your frustrations about your faulty investment calculator out on me im only posting my assumptions , and as some of us know making correct assumptions and being an early bird and right in those assumptions makes you the most money unlike being part of the herd


Yeah the calculator is really misfiring at the moment.

It's been an AWFUL year having 25% of my entire net worth in Berkshire, 16% in Occidental Petroleum warrants, 7% in ExxonMobil and Alliance resources and 12% in Markel, 4% In ASX Mader, Esquire, Progressive, All State... (Mostly all documented AT time of purchase on Sharetrader)

Only outperforming the market by around 32% this year.

Super frustrating.

I often wish I could just have 12 Screens and make money off ANY chart, ANY time ANY where.

Then I wouldn't have to work 60 hours a week.

[Rawz]

Yeah the calculator is really misfiring at the moment.

It's been an AWFUL year having 25% of my entire net worth in Berkshire, 16% in Occidental Petroleum warrants, 7% in ExxonMobil and Alliance resources and 12% in Markel, 4% In ASX Mader, Esquire, Progressive, All State... (Mostly all documented AT time of purchase on Sharetrader)

Only outperforming the market by around 32% this year.

Super frustrating.

I often wish I could just have 12 Screens and make money off ANY chart, ANY time ANY where.

Then I wouldn't have to work 60 hours a week.

How is that russian bank you invested in going? (genuine question)

[SailorRob]

How is that russian bank you invested in going? (genuine question)


No worries, always happy to share. So the situation is that I can't sell my shares currently but retain full ownership as I purchased them on the Moscow exchange (many people got burned owning them under a different structure on other exchanges).

The company is going from strength to strength and retaining all capital they would usually pay out, if and when I'm able to sell I almost definitely wont. Now I imagine the question was more related to the share price!

I paid an average price of just under 200 Roubles and currently they're sitting at 142 trading locally only. BUT the Rouble has appreciated so much I'm down less than 6% in NZD and thus dramatically outperforming the market over the same period.

Now I had started buying long before the war began, but I used the classic Buy on the Cannon Sell on the trumpet (yet to do that obviously) for my partners account, I was literally buying on nightshift as the missiles were flying and she's up 72% currently.

But as only locals can sell the market prices perhaps not fully reflective.

It's a classic case of Buffett's comment on buying things that you wouldn't care if the market closed down for 10 years. I still have full confidence that it will be a spectacular investment over time but it could also be a 100% loss as well easily enough. I'm glad I limited it to a very small position.

I have significant exposure in Hong Kong too at present and if you are not currently looking there then I suggest you do, some of the companies that supply the world and are exceptionally well managed and have large insider ownership and little exposure to China are selling for PE's of under 2. The Hang Seng right now is America in 1982, absolute washed out multiples on washed out margins, the recipe for getting rich.

When you get margins and multiples expanding together it is immensely powerful.

Here is a bone, I don't want to know what it tastes like.

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/the-20-per-centayear-stock-picker-who-wishes-his-edge-would-disappear-20190103-h19nfo (https://www.afr.com/world/asia/the-20-per-centayear-stock-picker-who-wishes-his-edge-would-disappear-20190103-h19nfo)

[justakiwi]

Thank you! :)


Said like you worked there JAK. OCA is not structured at all well towards dementia. Your guesswork is spot on:t_up:.

[bull....]

Yeah the calculator is really misfiring at the moment.

It's been an AWFUL year having 25% of my entire net worth in Berkshire, 16% in Occidental Petroleum warrants, 7% in ExxonMobil and Alliance resources and 12% in Markel, 4% In ASX Mader, Esquire, Progressive, All State... (Mostly all documented AT time of purchase on Sharetrader)

Only outperforming the market by around 32% this year.

Super frustrating.

I often wish I could just have 12 Screens and make money off ANY chart, ANY time ANY where.

Then I wouldn't have to work 60 hours a week.

lucky bets eh , if you can keep doing that for the next 15 - 20 yrs you will be very wealthy indeed. I notice though you didnt mention your losing bets ? ie such as oca :scared:

[bull....]

hope everyone got out on the trade 78 -82 as i mentioned implied a move to 86 which we got
now it's hammer time

[Bjauck]

No, I doubt they can guarantee you a rest home or hospital level bed, but I assume you might go to the top of the waiting list as an existing ORA client?

Either way, if someone had a major fall requiring transport to hospital, they may go to an AT&R (Assessment, treatment and rehab) ward to rehabilitate, before returning to their unit. It may be that if they were then assessed as needing hospital level care, that care could be provided in their unit temporarily, until a care bed/care suite became available.

This is why the care suite model is going to be a game-changer. If you go with the care suite you are guaranteed increasing levels of care will be provided within that suite, which means you can effectively stay there until you die. The only exception to that rule, will (I think) be if you required dementia level care at some point. If someone developed issues with wandering, aggressive behaviours etc, this would probably not be able to be managed in a care suite situation. A lot would depend on the level of dementia and whether or not the person was living with a spouse. Some people with dementia would be OK staying in a care suite, but a lot would not be.

All of this is just guesswork on my part, so I could be way off base. Mav and Ferg might have some actual knowledge of how this would work. It does make sense, that the the waiting list for a rest home bed would be prioritised for villagers. The wait for a standard rest home bed as opposed to a premium rest home suite may be a bit longer perhaps. That is just supposition on my part - I have no idea. It could be frustrating for non-villagers on the waiting list, especially in the scenario where rest homes are increasingly provided in villages.

Dementia care is another kettle of fish and very challenging for all. Let's hope that recent Alzheimer's breakthrough leads to further treatments.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/commentisfree/2022/dec/04/this-latest-alzheimers-drug-breakthrough-is-reason-for-hope-and-further-funding

[justakiwi]

Again, this is guesswork, I imagine OCA would retain those standard, government subsidised beds, for those who do not have the financial means to pay for care. Someone coming from a unit or apartment, would probably choose to move to a care suite at that point, for continuity of care without having to move again (excluding dementia scenario).

Yep, dementia is an absolute bitch. The future need for dedicated dementia care facilities, is going to be mind blowing.

Dementia is my greatest fear as I get older.


It does make sense, that the the waiting list for a rest home bed would be prioritised for villagers. The wait for a standard rest home bed as opposed to a premium rest home suite may be a bit longer perhaps. That is just supposition on my part - I have no idea. It could be frustrating for non-villagers on the waiting list, especially in the scenario where rest homes are increasingly provided in villages.

Dementia care is another kettle of fish and very challenging for all. Let's hope that recent Alzheimer's breakthrough leads to further treatments.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/commentisfree/2022/dec/04/this-latest-alzheimers-drug-breakthrough-is-reason-for-hope-and-further-funding

[Panda-NZ-]

One could also expand euthanasia to include longer term degenerative conditions (assuming appropriate safegaurds).

Or cure it (hard ask with overly restrictive FDA regulations).

[justakiwi]

............ Deleted. Waste of precious air.



One could also expand euthanasia to include long-term degenerative conditions (assuming appropriate safegaurds).

Or cure it (hard ask with overly restrictive FDA regulations).

[Panda-NZ-]

Here's a 2005 example where a panel of doctors approve a voluntary euthanasia request for Alzhiemers disease so there is a precedent.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC557252/

[BlackPeter]

One could also expand euthanasia to include longer term degenerative conditions (assuming appropriate safegaurds).

Or cure it (hard ask with overly restrictive FDA regulations).

I hope you are still able to realise that this is the OCA thread? Alzheimer is a bitch.

It is dangerous to throw stones when you are sitting in a glass house. You never know who is reading this. Just hope, they never apply this to you when its your turn :scared:

[Walter]

Dad had dementia and was a lifelong supporter of euthanasia. He would have been very keen to have that option.

[BlackPeter]

Dad had dementia and was a lifelong supporter of euthanasia. He would have been very keen to have that option.

Look, - this is the OCA thread.

... but given you already annoyed everybody and while you are here: Euthanasia is a bit like sex. In my view OK with informed consent. Problem is - anybody with dementia is not any longer able to give an informed consent - i.e. now we are talking about legalising murder.

And it is not even about taking dementia patients out of their misery. Maybe you should propose to euthanize the relatives. It is difficult for them, and they do suffer (and I know what I am talking about, my father had dementia as well). However - dementia patients (if well cared for) can be some of the happiest people you can imagine.

I met a number of people with dementia (and obviously accompanied my father these last five years). None of them (when well cared for) was unhappy, and my dad enjoyed these last five years of his life very much. Nice place to live, nice care staff, no need to worry about money, family or anything else. Just enjoying the care, the company - and not even annoyed when we told him three times a day the same story, because he didn't remember.

I find the proposal to euthanise dementia patients uninformed and disgusting - and clearly not in the best interest of the patients. It is plain murder.

But maybe we should move back to OCA, shouldn't we?

[Walter]

Wow, the power, two comments in a month and I annoyed everybody.
Dad was always a supporter, would have eagerly signed documents while he was still legally able to, and he was miserable in his dementia. He got very angry with his loved ones that would not "give him the pillow treatment"
How is this relevant to OCA? Shorter stays for those that opt out of suffering could alter the business model.
Justakiwi is a valuable contributor to this forum and offers incite at a much more knowledgeable level than the few hundred hours I have spent in the company of those with dementia. It is a growing issue, that has long term funding implications. It is also personal as there are genetic links.

[justakiwi]

My last comment before we get back to more specific OCA discussion.

I am a supporter of Assisted Dying as it currently stands, but as much as I hate the realities of dementia that I see in my job, and in my mother, I am not sure that assisted dying for dementia is something I would support. Lots of reasons for this, which I won't go into here, but am happy to elaborate via PM.

I would never want to see OCA, or any other provider, benefitting from "shorter stays for those who opt out of suffering" or to allow themselves to fall into that line of thinking. We are all shareholders looking for returns, but for me, care comes first. Money/returns second. My number one reason for holding OCA is because I want to be a small part of a business that shares my passion for providing quality care. Of course I want a return too, but not at the expense of people. In that respect, I am [going to be the better person and delete this comment.]

Now, I respectfully think we need to get back to OCA. As I said, happy to discuss further behind the scenes if anyone wishes to.


Wow, the power, two comments in a month and I annoyed everybody.
Dad was always a supporter, would have eagerly signed documents while he was still legally able to, and he was miserable in his dementia. He got very angry with his loved ones that would not "give him the pillow treatment"
How is this relevant to OCA? Shorter stays for those that opt out of suffering could alter the business model.
Justakiwi is a valuable contributor to this forum and offers incite at a much more knowledgeable level than the few hundred hours I have spent in the company of those with dementia. It is a growing issue, that has long term funding implications. It is also personal as there are genetic links.

[Curly]

Look, - this is the OCA thread.

... but given you already annoyed everybody and while you are here: Euthanasia is a bit like sex. In my view OK with informed consent. Problem is - anybody with dementia is not any longer able to give an informed consent - i.e. now we are talking about legalising murder.

And it is not even about taking dementia patients out of their misery. Maybe you should propose to euthanize the relatives. It is difficult for them, and they do suffer (and I know what I am talking about, my father had dementia as well). However - dementia patients (if well cared for) can be some of the happiest people you can imagine.

I met a number of people with dementia (and obviously accompanied my father these last five years). None of them (when well cared for) was unhappy, and my dad enjoyed these last five years of his life very much. Nice place to live, nice care staff, no need to worry about money, family or anything else. Just enjoying the care, the company - and not even annoyed when we told him three times a day the same story, because he didn't remember.

I find the proposal to euthanise dementia patients uninformed and disgusting - and clearly not in the best interest of the patients. It is plain murder.

But maybe we should move back to OCA, shouldn't we?
I agree with you Pete, especially your penultimate paragragh

[blackie]

My last comment before we get back to more specific OCA discussion.

I am a supporter of Assisted Dying as it currently stands, but as much as I hate the realities of dementia that I see in my job, and in my mother, I am not sure that assisted dying for dementia is something I would support. Lots of reasons for this, which I won't go into here, but am happy to elaborate via PM.

I would never want to see OCA, or any other provider, benefitting from "shorter stays for those who opt out of suffering" or to allow themselves to fall into that line of thinking. We are all shareholders looking for returns, but for me, care comes first. Money/returns second. My number one reason for holding OCA is because I want to be a small part of a business that shares my passion for providing quality care. Of course I want a return too, but not at the expense of people. In that respect, I am the total antithesis of the barking hound. Thank God.

Now, I respectfully think we need to get back to OCA. As I said, happy to discuss further behind the scenes if anyone wishes to.

this diminishes you

[SailorRob]

lucky bets eh , if you can keep doing that for the next 15 - 20 yrs you will be very wealthy indeed. I notice though you didnt mention your losing bets ? ie such as oca :scared:


Perhaps that's because I don't make bets, I'm not gambling.

I would not characterise having bought OCA for an average price well South of 90c over the last few weeks and already having had a dividend and seeing the market price a few cents lower than my average as a 'losing bet' particularly when I hope to hold for the next decade.

I would far prefer the price to go to 10c than $1 for obvious reasons as long as it wasn't accompanied by a dramatic change in the intrinsic value of the business.

There is no chance I will be able to continue to compound at the rate I have over the last few years and I've had some luck with encountering this bear market where a lot of things I'm buying are marked down far more than the market, as well as Covid opportunity in Energy.

I'm not sure there's much luck involved in spending thousands of hours reading annual reports and analysing 15 plus years of financial statements of many different companies, reading hundreds of investor letters and following the movement of the super investors very closely. Hundreds of hours alone have gone into Occidental.

Forward returns are looking better than ever from here, the whole portfolio trades around 8 x earnings and thus should do something like 13 -15% providing retained earnings are allocated properly and earnings are sustained and grow at a modest rate.

One thing is for certain, it would be much easier and less time consuming for me if I could make money from any chart, anywhere at any time using a 12 screen proprietary trading system. But I can't do that.

[bull....]

Perhaps that's because I don't make bets, I'm not gambling.

I would not characterise having bought OCA for an average price well South of 90c over the last few weeks and already having had a dividend and seeing the market price a few cents lower than my average as a 'losing bet' particularly when I hope to hold for the next decade.

I would far prefer the price to go to 10c than $1 for obvious reasons as long as it wasn't accompanied by a dramatic change in the intrinsic value of the business.

There is no chance I will be able to continue to compound at the rate I have over the last few years and I've had some luck with encountering this bear market where a lot of things I'm buying are marked down far more than the market, as well as Covid opportunity in Energy.

I'm not sure there's much luck involved in spending thousands of hours reading annual reports and analysing 15 plus years of financial statements of many different companies, reading hundreds of investor letters and following the movement of the super investors very closely. Hundreds of hours alone have gone into Occidental.

Forward returns are looking better than ever from here, the whole portfolio trades around 8 x earnings and thus should do something like 13 -15% providing retained earnings are allocated properly and earnings are sustained and grow at a modest rate.

One thing is for certain, it would be much easier and less time consuming for me if I could make money from any chart, anywhere at any time using a 12 screen proprietary trading system. But I can't do that.

still dont really get why you want a share to go to 10c :confused: that would mean to my understanding the company had it. i prefer it going to $1 with increasing div's

[Entrep]

"I hope it goes lower so I can buy more" is a phrase often seen on rekt Hotcopper share forums.

[850man]

not often that you get to buy something valued at $1.34 for 80c. Better than buying SUMthing valued at $8.91 for $9.25

[BlackPeter]

not often that you get to buy something valued at $1.34 for 80c. Better than buying SUMthing valued at $8.91 for $9.25

True, though this comment might restart a discussion about the difference of value and price and how meaningful the NTA is as a measure of the value of a company.

Obviously - at the end the only thing which counts is how much somebody else is prepared to pay you for your company (no matter what's in the books) when you need to sell it - and this "something" will depend on the buyers assessment at that time of how much of the book value they can recover when they are selling it, but as well on their assessment of the future earnings capability of the company plus whatever the current vibe is ..

Having said that - I think as well that OCA is currently cheap. However - some companies can be "cheap" for a long time.

Discl: hold OCA;

[winner69]

True, though this comment might restart a discussion about the difference of value and price and how meaningful the NTA is as a measure of the value of a company.

Obviously - at the end the only thing which counts is how much somebody else is prepared to pay you for your company (no matter what's in the books) when you need to sell it - and this "something" will depend on the buyers assessment at that time of how much of the book value they can recover when they are selling it, but as well on their assessment of the future earnings capability of the company plus whatever the current vibe is ..

Having said that - I think as well that OCA is currently cheap. However - some companies can be "cheap" for a long time.

Discl: hold OCA;


Some companies can be ‘cheap’ for a very long time …….and sometimes companies can be ‘cheap’ forever

Bit like Re Remmers v Otara

[Entrep]

Bit like Re Remmers v Otara

Funny you say that, someone used a similar analogy when telling me why SUM trades at a premium vs OCA and why SUM is also their preferred pick.

[SailorRob]

Some companies can be ‘cheap’ for a very long time …….and sometimes companies can be ‘cheap’ forever

Bit like Re Remmers v Otara


Wasn't Ponsonby 'cheap forever' for a very long time?

[SailorRob]

still dont really get why you want a share to go to 10c :confused: that would mean to my understanding the company had it. i prefer it going to $1 with increasing div's

I would prefer it to go lower than 10c or even better get a call from the board asking if I will accept 100% of the equity for free and take it private.

I add the caveat that as 'long as it wasn't accompanied by a dramatic change in the intrinsic value of the business'.

Not sure whether you didn't read that bit, read it but didn't comprehend it or neither.

I painstakingly went through the math on this forum a while back.

[SailorRob]

True, though this comment might restart a discussion about the difference of value and price and how meaningful the NTA is as a measure of the value of a company.

Obviously - at the end the only thing which counts is how much somebody else is prepared to pay you for your company (no matter what's in the books) when you need to sell it - and this "something" will depend on the buyers assessment at that time of how much of the book value they can recover when they are selling it, but as well on their assessment of the future earnings capability of the company plus whatever the current vibe is ..

Having said that - I think as well that OCA is currently cheap. However - some companies can be "cheap" for a long time.

Discl: hold OCA;

For many companies NTA is totally meaningless (Google for one) for others it means a lot more. With companies like OCA the valuation is based more on what you could realise from an asset sale rather than the discounted value of future cash flows, which as you say is ok until that changes...

But then future cash flow estimates can change too.

[Bjauck]

Some companies can be ‘cheap’ for a very long time …….and sometimes companies can be ‘cheap’ forever

Bit like Re Remmers v Otara You need to look at which suburbs have the greater proportion of owner-occupiers to determine “cheapness.”
“Cheapness” is a comparative concept. Remuera is cheaper for the people who live there. Otara is way too expensive, as fewer of the people of the neighbourhood can afford to buy their own homes there (and have the increased security of tenure and “belonging” that buys in NZ)

I think that the houses in less expensive suburbs in NZ tend to be investment destinations for wealthier people. Gentrifying suburbs are cheap for the wealthier and high paid folk moving in, but not for the long-established residents already there.

[SailorRob]

You need to look at which suburbs have the greater proportion of owner-occupiers to determine “cheapness.”
“Cheapness” is a comparative concept. Remuera is cheaper for the people who live there. Otara is way too expensive, as fewer of the people of the neighbourhood can afford to buy their own homes there (and have the increased security of tenure and “belonging” that buys in NZ)

I think that the houses in less expensive suburbs in NZ tend to be investment destinations for wealthier people. Gentrifying suburbs are cheap for the wealthier and high paid folk moving in, but not for the long-established residents already there.


Great points, thanks.

This circles back to the NTA and valuation discussions as well.

[BlackPeter]

Funny you say that, someone used a similar analogy when telling me why SUM trades at a premium vs OCA and why SUM is also their preferred pick.

Problem is - you can't rely either on some stocks being too dear (or too cheap) forever. Just look at XRO, FPH, ATM, ...

At some undefined point in time the market wakes up and rerates the company. Some get rated up and others get rated down.

[Balance]

Seems to me that some posters accept the published NTAs of the retirement village as gospel truth.

What we know however that is the institutional market (especially overseas instos) prices in premiums or discounts to the NTAs, depending on their collective view of the property market and values are going.

Hence, the huge premiums to published NTAs during the boom years.

Now that the boom has turned to bust, hardly surprising that there are huge discounts to NTAs.

Why?

As one fundie put it to me a few months ago, they decided to get out of the sector as it was clear that the tide has gone out of the sector and the leverage from 'free equity' & debt that RVs enjoy to rising property values is now going into reverse.

Take OCA as a case in point - 30 Sept 2022:

Total land & buildings - $2.285b
Equity - $964m
'Free equity' - $889m (ror)
Debt - $493m

As can be seen, a 10% drop in property values will wipe 23.6% off NTA ($228m/$964m).

How about a 20% drop? 45.2% off NTA to 73.5c.

So market is pricing in an 18% drop in property values on OCA's sp of 79c vs NTA of $1.34 - realistic?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/130742323/housing-markets-rough-ride-continues-with-prices-down-124-nationally

Median house price to Nov 2022 - nationally down 12.4%

Auckland down 18.4% (some suburbs down 24.8%)

Wellington down 17.4% (some suburbs down 26.6%).

Leverage is a wonderful thing on the way up - it is nasty and un-nerving on the way down. Make sure you have the stomach for it if you ever use leverage or play leverage!

[bull....]

looks poised to tumble to new lows :scared:

[SailorRob]

looks poised to tumble to new lows :scared:


Best news I have heard all day, I hope you're right.

Being able to look at the chart and easily predict the future is an incredible skill and asset to have. You can essentially print money at ant time, anywhere. You just need an open market somewhere and a dozen screens.

[SailorRob]

Seems to me that some posters accept the published NTAs of the retirement village as gospel truth.

What we know however that is the institutional market (especially overseas instos) prices in premiums or discounts to the NTAs, depending on their collective view of the property market and values are going.

Hence, the huge premiums to published NTAs during the boom years.

Now that the boom has turned to bust, hardly surprising that there are huge discounts to NTAs.

Why?

As one fundie put it to me a few months ago, they decided to get out of the sector as it was clear that the tide has gone out of the sector and the leverage from 'free equity' & debt that RVs enjoy to rising property values is now going into reverse.

Take OCA as a case in point - 30 Sept 2022:

Total land & buildings - $2.285b
Equity - $964m
'Free equity' - $889m (ror)
Debt - $493m

As can be seen, a 10% drop in property values will wipe 23.6% off NTA ($228m/$964m).

How about a 20% drop? 45.2% off NTA to 73.5c.

So market is pricing in an 18% drop in property values on OCA's sp of 79c vs NTA of $1.34 - realistic?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/130742323/housing-markets-rough-ride-continues-with-prices-down-124-nationally

Median house price to Nov 2022 - nationally down 12.4%

Auckland down 18.4% (some suburbs down 24.8%)

Wellington down 17.4% (some suburbs down 26.6%).

Leverage is a wonderful thing on the way up - it is nasty and un-nerving on the way down. Make sure you have the stomach for it if you ever use leverage or play leverage!


Good points, this is why you always value things on cash flows not on property values which are just the price at which one moron will transact with another at on a given day.

[bull....]

Best news I have heard all day, I hope you're right.

Being able to look at the chart and easily predict the future is an incredible skill and asset to have. You can essentially print money at ant time, anywhere. You just need an open market somewhere and a dozen screens.

yes yes i know your be happy your 10c price is coming might not be this yr but next yr maybe esp with fbu ramping up production

[winner69]

Property market still stuffed

Low number of sales a worry for OCA


https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Monthly%20Press%20Release%20Assets/Residential/11%20-%20November/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20November%202022.pdf

[bull....]

Property market still stuffed

Low number of sales a worry for OCA


https://reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Monthly%20Press%20Release%20Assets/Residential/11%20-%20November/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20November%202022.pdf

yea that NTA thingee going to be alot smaller surely next yr .... wonder who will beat who in the race to the bottom .... cashflow or NTA ?

[SailorRob]

yes yes i know your be happy your 10c price is coming might not be this yr but next yr maybe esp with fbu ramping up production


Yes ibee hapi your be fbu rampz upps they be wrek oca be me goodz

[Balance]

Yes ibee hapi your be fbu rampz upps they be wrek oca be me goodz


yea that NTA thingee going to be alot smaller surely next yr .... wonder who will beat who in the race to the bottom .... cashflow or NTA ?

Come on guys - you cannot control the market but you certainly can control how you react to the market.

One plays long term, the other short term - bit like a chicken talking to a goose?

[Poolboy]

It could be worse. We could be RYM boys. $6.20 right now - yikes.

I'm down 49.6% on my RYM. Good thing I don't have many...

[SailorRob]

For all the regular posters/viewers on this thread;

If we owned OCA in a private partnership and thus had no quoted price but still had a internet forum or chat group, what types of things would we be posting and discussing and why?

I would say that it would be very different from what we are all discussing and I'm very confident about that, the question is why would it be?

[SailorRob]

[QUOTE=peat;984786]actually , tho, as in actual reality, OCA equity paper is depreciating pretty rapidly and has been for nearly two years now with no real sign of a turnaround, so all your words about the future are just reckons. clearly the market has a problem with OCA otherwise it would likely be closer to NTA. And the market is what determines the current price, not the NTA, not your reckons, and not everyones expectations which have been pushed around for years now, hey I'm exposed to this too but thanks to a strong concept of diversification in other markets, other shares, and holding cash in TD's the pain is relatively minimal and acceptable under the view of a long term holding.

So I wouldnt be touting this as the next best thing quite yet especially to people who already have a decent exposure.

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. If you — students of America go to these elite business schools and law schools and they learn corporate finance the way it’s now taught and investment management the way it’s now taught.

And some of these people write articles in the newspaper and other places and they say, “Well, the whole secret of investment is diversification.” That’s the mantra.

They’ve got it exactly back-ass-ward. The whole secret of investment is to find places where it’s safe and wise to non-diversify. It’s just that simple. Diversification is for the know-nothing investor; it’s not for the professional.

[justakiwi]

Because for some unfathomable reason, the discussion on OCA has always ended up focusing on the share price. For discussions on most other companies, most posters acknowledge that the market sets the share price, and unless something significant has changed for the company, share price is irrelevant. But not for OCA. Somewhere along the way OCA became the ST whipping boy for the sector, which brought out the usual stirrers/down rampers, who simply enjoy winding people up.

You are 100% correct. If OCA was a private company we held shares in, the discussion would be vastly different, and of much greater value. Without any doubt whatsoever.





For all the regular posters/viewers on this thread;

If we owned OCA in a private partnership and thus had no quoted price but still had a internet forum or chat group, what types of things would we be posting and discussing and why?

I would say that it would be very different from what we are all discussing and I'm very confident about that, the question is why would it be?

[SailorRob]

Because for some unfathomable reason, the discussion on OCA has always ended up focusing on the share price. For discussions on most other companies, most posters acknowledge that the market sets the share price, and unless something significant has changed for the company, share price is irrelevant. But not for OCA. Somewhere along the way OCA became the ST whipping boy for the sector, which brought out the usual stirrers/down rampers, who simply enjoy winding people up.

You are 100% correct. If OCA was a private company we held shares in, the discussion would be vastly different, and of much greater value. Without any doubt whatsoever.


Well said.

My guess is it would be based around;

Earnings and the outlook and the best way to improve them

Retained earnings - what the management is doing with OUR money that is flowing into the company and whether it should be paid out to us or retained within.

Management

Staffing issues

Government policy

Sales rates

Source of funds, as with retained earnings, should we borrow more or raise equity, if so do we want more partners? Why/why not?

Build rates, acquisitions and what else we own and where

Competition

[peat]

wise to non-diversify. It’s just that simple. Diversification is for the know-nothing investor; it’s not for the professional.
Pretty strong words and quite frankly very insulting. Tempted to let it go coz arguments on the internet never result in anything, and you certainly, argue black is white. eg denying the point that the share price has halved and that this affects the current value of portfolios

I've had this divers-diworse discussion with Mav, and each to their own, but mathematically diversification has proven benefits on a risk reward basis of investing. Imagine how you'll be if say, some massive fraud was uncovered at OCA (I am not suggesting it is true, just a hard core hypothetical here), and the company goes bankrupt, or say they have been using a particular product that is discovered to be dangerous, and their buildings become worthless (and their insurance claim fails) - just say! Hows your non-diversification gonna work out then when you've backed the truck up.
What I am saying is , no one knows mate, not even you. **** happens.

I seem to recall Beagles tag was stating the biblical version of diversification - "thou shalt divide ones pile into eight" or something like that , so are you calling him a know-nothing investor too?

[bull....]

For all the regular posters/viewers on this thread;

If we owned OCA in a private partnership and thus had no quoted price but still had a internet forum or chat group, what types of things would we be posting and discussing and why?

I would say that it would be very different from what we are all discussing and I'm very confident about that, the question is why would it be?

load of s..t , it doesnt matter if its public or private everyone is looking to make money so valuation of the entity is always on people's mind

[justakiwi]

It should be, and neither SailorRob or are are disputing that. But as I said in my previous post, the focus of the discussion in this thread, has been on share price, above anything else. For months, if not years.

Which has not been the case for other companies, in this sector or otherwise.

SR is correct. If this were a private company, the discussion would focus on the important stuff, not the "noise."


load of s..t , it doesnt matter if its public or private everyone is looking to make money so valuation of the entity is always on people's mind

[BlackPeter]

They’ve got it exactly back-ass-ward. The whole secret of investment is to find places where it’s safe and wise to non-diversify. It’s just that simple. Diversification is for the know-nothing investor; it’s not for the professional.

Look, I don't want to start here the next discussion which has nothing to do with OCA, but above statement is so plainly wrong that we can't leave it just unopposed.

It is not unusual that investors with a few home runs think they are invincible and don't need diversification - but the ones I remember paid dearly for his folly. Just check out how some of the big mouth investors did who thought that ATM or (on the other side of the spectrum Cryptocurrencies) might be a one way road to richness. Apparently no diversification required.

It is not just about putting all eggs into one basket and watching it carefully. You never know who might run over this basket and create lots of scrambled eggs.

Of course - diversification alone is not an investment strategy, you still need to do due diligence on any of your investments and pick the best. However - nobody is able to predict the future, and this alone is a good reason to diversify. Successful farmers diversify their crops, because they don't know whether a late frost might destroy some of them (no matter how careful they planned).

Even the bible (which, by the way contains many sensible rules and statements, no matter what your view on religion might be) recommends diversification:

Ecclesiastes 11:2

Give a portion to seven, and also to eight; for thou knowest not what evil shall be upon the earth.

I suggest however we go on one of the investment strategy threads if we want to continue this discussion ...

[Rawz]

maybe not diversification but a concentrated portfolio. 5-10 stocks.

[SailorRob]

Pretty strong words and quite frankly very insulting. Tempted to let it go coz arguments on the internet never result in anything, and you certainly, argue black is white. eg denying the point that the share price has halved and that this affects the current value of portfolios

I've had this divers-diworse discussion with Mav, and each to their own, but mathematically diversification has proven benefits on a risk reward basis of investing. Imagine how you'll be if say, some massive fraud was uncovered at OCA (I am not suggesting it is true, just a hard core hypothetical here), and the company goes bankrupt, or say they have been using a particular product that is discovered to be dangerous, and their buildings become worthless (and their insurance claim fails) - just say! Hows your non-diversification gonna work out then when you've backed the truck up.
What I am saying is , no one knows mate, not even you. **** happens.

I seem to recall Beagles tag was stating the biblical version of diversification - "thou shalt divide ones pile into eight" or something like that , so are you calling him a know-nothing investor too?


For a proper indication of the results of diversification as suggested by you in your original post (which was 'but thanks to a strong concept of diversification in other markets, other shares, and holding cash in TD's the pain is relatively minimal)' Look at the results you have had so far 'investing' and compare them to what you would have achieved by just investing in a index fund representing the whole market.

These 'pretty strong words' are not mine, as you will know because I referenced the words to Charlie Munger and they are echoed by Warren Buffett, the greatest investor of all time.

'The whole secret of investment is to find places where it’s safe and wise to non-diversify'

They both recommend that almost everyone just invests in a index fund with the maximum diversity you can get as they don't have the skills to do otherwise.

'but mathematically diversification has proven benefits on a risk reward basis of investing' This is classic, this is exactly what Charlie is saying, all corporate finance nonsense that you've been sucked into (again look at your results).

Beagle is FAR superior to Warren and Charlie you're right, you should hold him in much higher regard. Everything Beagle says is true. Now look again at your results.

If you're concentrated in OCA and it goes bust then you sure haven't found somewhere safe and wise to non diversify. Have you spent a thousand hours on OCA? No? Well don't take a big position then.

'denying the point that the share price has halved and that this affects the current value of portfolios' I'm not denying it. OCA at 78c is far more valuable than at $1.50. And far less risk.

If you actually invest as you have highlighted here 'strong concept of diversification in other markets, other shares, and holding cash in TD's' I will GUARUNTEE that you dramatically underperform a simple index fund and so the question is then why don't you do yourself a favor and just index.

[SailorRob]

Look, I don't want to start here the next discussion which has nothing to do with OCA, but above statement is so plainly wrong that we can't leave it just unopposed.

It is not unusual that investors with a few home runs think they are invincible and don't need diversification - but the ones I remember paid dearly for his folly. Just check out how some of the big mouth investors did who thought that ATM or (on the other side of the spectrum Cryptocurrencies) might be a one way road to richness. Apparently no diversification required.

It is not just about putting all eggs into one basket and watching it carefully. You never know who might run over this basket and create lots of scrambled eggs.

Of course - diversification alone is not an investment strategy, you still need to do due diligence on any of your investments and pick the best. However - nobody is able to predict the future, and this alone is a good reason to diversify. Successful farmers diversify their crops, because they don't know whether a late frost might destroy some of them (no matter how careful they planned).

Even the bible (which, by the way contains many sensible rules and statements, no matter what your view on religion might be) recommends diversification:

Ecclesiastes 11:2


I suggest however we go on one of the investment strategy threads if we want to continue this discussion ...


Oh Blackpeter...

NO investors ever invested in ATM or crypto my friend. They were speculators and deserve everything they got.

Look if you're going to quote the bible then I don't have much comeback to that!

I guess Charlie Munger and Warren are 'so plainly wrong.'

I am certainly not advocating anyone invests everything into one company (although this is how 95% of the fortunes of the world have been made, perhaps 98%)

I am simply saying that this - but thanks to a strong concept of diversification in other markets, other shares, and holding cash in TD's the pain is relatively minimal' is idiocy and will guarantee that you have at best very average results.

I am nowhere near good enough or confident enough to have the concentration that Charlie talks about.

[SailorRob]

load of s..t , it doesnt matter if its public or private everyone is looking to make money so valuation of the entity is always on people's mind


Interesting, so every private business owner is looking to make money by selling their business and thus what someone will pay them in exchange for it is always on their mind.

IS it possible that there are people who don't look to make money buy buying and selling businesses?

IS there another way to make money?

So if we had a OCA in a private partnership, we would always have entity valuation on our minds, would we get it valued every 6 Months, a year? Would we run a system of quotes between each other?

[bull....]

It should be, and neither SailorRob or are are disputing that. But as I said in my previous post, the focus of the discussion in this thread, has been on share price, above anything else. For months, if not years.

Which has not been the case for other companies, in this sector or otherwise.

SR is correct. If this were a private company, the discussion would focus on the important stuff, not the "noise."

ok.
but as i do some short term trading which many others on sharetrader do too
price is important as i need to know what price my loss limit is or even what price my profit level is so i guess at the end of the day everyone just has to live with the diversity of views and opinions and accept price matters.
it certainly does when im working out what i need for my retirement

[bull....]

Interesting, so every private business owner is looking to make money by selling their business and thus what someone will pay them in exchange for it is always on their mind.

IS it possible that there are people who don't look to make money buy buying and selling businesses?

IS there another way to make money?

So if we had a OCA in a private partnership, we would always have entity valuation on our minds, would we get it valued every 6 Months, a year? Would we run a system of quotes between each other?

why does anyone go into business ? make money
you are correct though you might not discuss it everyday
but you would discuss all those other things your talking about to be able to discuss your higher valuation at the end of the day

[Balance]

FACT - OCA is a public listed company listed on the NZX precisely because it wants a market for its shares.

The market prices the stock daily and that's precisely what the NZX is for.

Anyone who ignores the sp and what the market is trying to tell you should NOT invest in the market.

[SailorRob]

why does anyone go into business ? make money
you are correct though you might not discuss it everyday
but you would discuss all those other things your talking about to be able to discuss your higher valuation at the end of the day


Yep but most go into business to generate income/earnings from businesses and a resulting higher valuation is secondary.

'i need to know what price my loss limit is'

Stop losses...

'Which, you know, has always struck me as like having a house that you like, and you’re living in, and, you know, it’s worth $100,000 and you tell your broker, you know, if anybody ever comes along and offers 90, you want to sell it. I mean, it doesn’t make any sense to me'. - WEB

[SailorRob]

FACT - OCA is a public listed company listed on the NZX precisely because it wants a market for its shares.

The market prices the stock daily and that's precisely what the NZX is for.

Anyone who ignores the sp and what the market is trying to tell you should NOT invest in the market.


Wrong. It's because it wants equity capital.

Never never ever let the SP tell you anything about the business, that is the very definition of idiocy and you should NOT invest in the market if you are taking instruction from the SP.

Use the SP to purchase when it becomes much lower than the intrinsic value.

[SailorRob]

FACT - OCA is a public listed company listed on the NZX precisely because it wants a market for its shares.

The market prices the stock daily and that's precisely what the NZX is for.

Anyone who ignores the sp and what the market is trying to tell you should NOT invest in the market.


Hell it's raining here, I'll play a silly little game with you.

So lets focus on the SP and what the market is trying to tell us, you'll have to help me though.

What is the market telling us and how do we react? What do we do?

Also - what was the market telling us recently at $1.60? And what should we have done with that info then??

Also - during Covid at 43c?

[justakiwi]

If you are a trader then yes, price matters a great deal more than it does for long term investors. I think we all understand that. But the continual, obsessive focus on OCA's share price (and care costs) is completely irrational. Which puzzles me, given the wealth of experience in these forums. Sometimes I come to check this thread and wonder if I have come to the Sharesies Share Club FB page by mistake.

You do not judge the value of a company by its share price.

I will say this - I am convinced that many people holding OCA and/or posting in this thread, do not actually understand Aged Care. I realise that most of you are more concerned with the property aspect of the sector, but all of these providers are providing Aged Care. Whether that is in a villa, an apartment, a care suite or a standard care bed, it is all aged care to one degree or another. Some of the biggest critics of OCA (both here and in other "places") clearly, just do not "get it."



ok.
but as i do some short term trading which many others on sharetrader do too
price is important as i need to know what price my loss limit is or even what price my profit level is so i guess at the end of the day everyone just has to live with the diversity of views and opinions and accept price matters.
it certainly does when im working out what i need for my retirement

[Balance]

Wrong. It's because it wants equity capital.

Never never ever let the SP tell you anything about the business, that is the very definition of idiocy and you should NOT invest in the market if you are taking instruction from the SP.

Use the SP to purchase when it becomes much lower than the intrinsic value.

If it wants equity capital, it needs and wants a market for its shares.

One comes before the other - you need to get the sequence right.

What is OCA's intrinsic value?

Its sp today is the market's current intrinsic value - FACT.

What anyone and you perceive to be its intrinsic value sometime in the future (be it short term or long term) is based upon a whole series of assumptions which may or may not play out.

[SailorRob]

If you are a trader then yes, price matters a great deal more than it does for long term investors. I think we all understand that. But the continual, obsessive focus on OCA's share price (and care costs) is completely irrational. Which puzzles me, given the wealth of experience in these forums. Sometimes I come to check this thread and wonder if I have come to the Sharesies Share Club FB page by mistake.

You do not judge the value of a company by its share price.

I will say this - I am convinced that many people holding OCA and/or posting in this thread, do not actually understand Aged Care. I realise that most of you are more concerned with the property aspect of the sector, but all of these providers are providing Aged Care. Whether that is in a villa, an apartment, a care suite or a standard care bed, it is all aged care to one degree or another. Some of the biggest critics of OCA (both here and in other "places") clearly, just do not "get it."


Extremely wise words. In saying that this is the very fundamental concept of all investing.

So few understand it however.

[SailorRob]

If it wants equity capital, it needs and wants a market for its shares.

One comes before the other - you need to get the sequence right. Not necessarily - easy to get equity capital without the market - but yes they obviously also want a market for their shares as well.

What is OCA's intrinsic value?

Its sp today is the market's current intrinsic value - FACT. Are you saying the SP today is the businesses intrinsic value?

What anyone and you perceive to be its intrinsic value sometime in the future (be it short term or long term) is based upon a whole series of assumptions which may or may not play out.


Its sp today is the market's current intrinsic value - FACT. Are you saying the SP today is the businesses intrinsic value?

Please define 'the markets intrinsic value'

[bull....]

If you are a trader then yes, price matters a great deal more than it does for long term investors. I think we all understand that. But the continual, obsessive focus on OCA's share price (and care costs) is completely irrational. Which puzzles me, given the wealth of experience in these forums. Sometimes I come to check this thread and wonder if I have come to the Sharesies Share Club FB page by mistake.

You do not judge the value of a company by its share price.

I will say this - I am convinced that many people holding OCA and/or posting in this thread, do not actually understand Aged Care. I realise that most of you are more concerned with the property aspect of the sector, but all of these providers are providing Aged Care. Whether that is in a villa, an apartment, a care suite or a standard care bed, it is all aged care to one degree or another. Some of the biggest critics of OCA (both here and in other "places") clearly, just do not "get it."


i know OCA do care but it only provides a tiny part of there profits , the main profit driver is property therefore for me whats happening with property prices is more relevant to the future of OCA. dare i say if OCA was only about care the share price would most probvably be 10c

[Entrep]

If you buy a share and don't care about the price on any given day (or cherry pick certain days) I don't know what to tell you. Absolutely non-sensical.

[Balance]

Its sp today is the market's current intrinsic value - FACT. Are you saying the SP today is the businesses intrinsic value?

You need to read carefully, SR - "Its sp is the market's CURRENT intrinsic value".

It is the value placed on the company by the market today, after taking into consideration all pertinent factors including demand and supply of the shares.

As for easy to get equity capital without the market, that is so well contradicted by the growth and growth of markets.

[SailorRob]

You need to read carefully, SR - "Its sp is the market's CURRENT intrinsic value".

It is the value placed on the company by the market today, after taking into consideration all pertinent factors including demand and supply of the shares.

As for easy to get equity capital without the market, that is so well contradicted by the growth and growth of markets.


I think we can just say the market value eh.

Yep often easier to get equity at a better price in public markets but for anything decent, always easy off market too.

Please answer post 114456

[justakiwi]

The "value placed by the market, on the company today" is not the same thing as the "intrinsic value of the company."

But you know that.




It is the value placed on the company by the market today, after taking into consideration all pertinent factors including demand and supply of the shares.

[Balance]

I think we can just say the market value eh.

Yep often easier to get equity at a better price in public markets but for anything decent, always easy off market too.

Intrinsic value at the end of the day is in the eyes of the beholder.

It will always be a moving feast and to me, that is the absolute beauty of the market.

[SailorRob]

Intrinsic value at the end of the day is in the eyes of the beholder.

It will always be a moving feast and to me, that is the absolute beauty of the market.


Yes, yes.

But;

What is the market telling us and how do we react? What do we do?

Also - what was the market telling us recently at $1.60? And what should we have done with that info then??

Also - during Covid at 43c?

[Balance]

Yes, yes.

But;

What is the market telling us and how do we react? What do we do?

Also - what was the market telling us recently at $1.60? And what should we have done with that info then??

Also - during Covid at 43c?

Depends on one’s perception of what lays ahead.

At 43c, the world was all dark and gloomy dealing with a huge unknown. The market certainly did not expect governments to recklessly pump in unlimited amount of stimuli which caused interest rates to crash towards zero.

At $1.60, the market perceived interest rates to continue to remain low and demand for RVs to be immune from any housing market bust.

Both assumptions and perceptions proved to be wrong.

[SailorRob]

Depends on one’s perception of what lays ahead.

At 43c, the world was all dark and gloomy dealing with a huge unknown. The market certainly did not expect governments to recklessly pump in unlimited amount of stimuli which caused interest rates to crash towards zero.

At $1.60, the market perceived interest rates to continue to remain low and demand for RVs to be immune from any housing market bust.

Both assumptions and perceptions proved to be wrong.


Agreed.

And intrinsic value changed very little between these three points (43c $1.60 and now).

[Balance]

Agreed.

And intrinsic value changed very little between these three points (43c $1.60 and now).

Intrinsic value changed a lot imo - economic conditions, the company’s direction & management, demand & supply dynamics and factors determining cost of capital (interest rates, company’s capital & debt structure and volatility) all changed.

[percy]

Intrinsic value changed a lot imo - economic conditions, the company’s direction & management, demand & supply dynamics and factors determining cost of capital (interest rates, company’s capital & debt structure and volatility) all changed.
The tsunami of aging retirees just keeps on getting bigger.
The issue may turn out to be on the supply side in the not to distant future.

[Balance]

The tsunami of aging retirees just keeps on getting bigger.
The issue may turn out to be on the supply side in the not to distant future.

They do and that’s certainly one compelling reason to have exposure to the sector.

The key issue is still house prices which affects RVs - the price retirees can get for their exiting properties to buy into RVs.

[Balance]

I had MetLife shares and thank goodness someone else had an intrinsic value for my shares at a much higher level at the time than my perception of value!!!! So they were most welcome to my shares at the price they offered in the takeover!

[Snow Leopard]

Ithaka

BY C. P. CAVAFY
TRANSLATED BY EDMUND KEELEY

As you set out for Ithaka
hope your road is a long one,
full of adventure, full of discovery.
Laistrygonians, Cyclops,
angry Poseidon—don’t be afraid of them:
you’ll never find things like that on your way
as long as you keep your thoughts raised high,
as long as a rare excitement
stirs your spirit and your body.
Laistrygonians, Cyclops,
wild Poseidon—you won’t encounter them
unless you bring them along inside your soul,
unless your soul sets them up in front of you.

Hope your road is a long one.
May there be many summer mornings when,
with what pleasure, what joy,
you enter harbors you’re seeing for the first time;
may you stop at Phoenician trading stations
to buy fine things,
mother of pearl and coral, amber and ebony,
sensual perfume of every kind—
as many sensual perfumes as you can;
and may you visit many Egyptian cities
to learn and go on learning from their scholars.

Keep Ithaka always in your mind.
Arriving there is what you’re destined for.
But don’t hurry the journey at all.
Better if it lasts for years,
so you’re old by the time you reach the island,
wealthy with all you’ve gained on the way,
not expecting Ithaka to make you rich.

Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey.
Without her you wouldn't have set out.
She has nothing left to give you now.

And if you find her poor, Ithaka won’t have fooled you.
Wise as you will have become, so full of experience,
you’ll have understood by then what these Ithakas mean.


https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/51296/ithaka-56d22eef917ec

[percy]

They do and that’s certainly one compelling reason to have exposure to the sector.

The key issue is still house prices which affects RVs - the price retirees can get for their exiting properties to buy into RVs.

Most [all] retirement villages price their units well below the average local house values.So most retirees have money to spare once their house is sold.
The slow down means it takes longer to sell their house,as buyers have finance issues.
I think we must also remember it is a lifestyle decision ,rather than a financial one for most.

[SailorRob]

Intrinsic value changed a lot imo - economic conditions, the company’s direction & management, demand & supply dynamics and factors determining cost of capital (interest rates, company’s capital & debt structure and volatility) all changed.

I think we can both agree that intrinsic value has changed a small fraction of the market value from 43c to $1.60.

[thegreatestben]

Unsure if anyone has posted this (https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118869/forsyth-barr-research-analysts-see-five-potential-positive-macro) yet - bottom of this article has 5 stocks to watch from ForBarr for 2023 and OCA is one of them.

"The analysts say in choosing their five stocks to watch in 2023 they have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas - (Infratil [IFT (https://www.interest.co.nz/nzx50/ift)], Vulcan Steel [VSL (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/VSL)], KMD Brands [KMD (http://www.interest.co.nz/nzx50/kmd)]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA (http://www.interest.co.nz/nzx50/oca)], SkyCity [SKC (http://www.interest.co.nz/nzx50/skc)]) "where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price"."We have done our best to avoid companies that we see as particularly exposed to labour shortages, or have debt concerns."

[ronaldson]

Like everyone else subscribing to the DRIP I had shares allotted today at $0.8041c - disappointing that market closed at $0.79c after ranging up to $0.85c earlier in the period after the ex-date. That 6c range seems excessive given the sub $1 pricing, so sentiment has fluctuated even thou turnover remains heavy.

I see the main driver lower now being constant media repetition regarding falling house prices but agree with Percy's comments above. The tsunami of aging retirees has indeed arrived as the boomers have begun to reach 75+ but it is wise to remember peak demand for care suites is maybe still at least five more years away.

And I know there is no alternative presently to the gross dividend being abated by 33c RWT (some holders will be able to retrieve some of that in due course) but still have not got over the mean spiritedness of the Board in reducing the previous interim dividend of 2.1cps to the current 1.9cps given the generally acceptable half year result and the prevailing rate of inflation. Yield is king at the moment in underpinning share pricing so why apply further pressure?

[SailorRob]

but still have not got over the mean spiritedness of the Board in reducing the previous interim dividend of 2.1cps to the current 1.9cps given the generally acceptable half year result and the prevailing rate of inflation. Yield is king at the moment in underpinning share pricing so why apply further pressure?

Are we really saying that the board should be allocating capital to support the share price?

I mean they are asking for equity on one hand and paying it out of the other. Crazy.

[Baa_Baa]

Are we really saying that the board should be allocating capital to support the share price?

I mean they are asking for equity on one hand and paying it out of the other. Crazy.

I've avoided this traders versus investors discussion so far, but your question is ridiculous as you already know the answer. OCA Board has no effect on the market SP, unless they're doing a buy-back. Which they're not. Even if they were, there should not be directly affecting the market SP. And they're not.

The circular arguments of traders vs investors is really quite boring and tedious imo, traders like momentum in the SP and position accordingly to buy and sell when it suits them, whereas investors like the occasionally low SP to get some more. Now's the time for investors, value investors. Traders take their chances, will the SP go up from here, or not. It's of no concern to me. Good luck to them.

Everything else is noise, the debate will never convert a trader to an investor, or visa versa. Some get over it and move on. We trade if we want to, we invest if want to, neither can be be compared, they're poles apart strategies.

[SailorRob]

I've avoided this traders versus investors discussion so far, but your question is ridiculous as you already know the answer. OCA Board has no effect on the market SP, unless they're doing a buy-back. Which they're not. Even if they were, there should not be directly affecting the market SP. And they're not.

The circular arguments of traders vs investors is really quite boring and tedious imo, traders like momentum in the SP and position accordingly to buy and sell when it suits them, whereas investors like the occasionally low SP to get some more. Now's the time for investors, value investors. Traders take their chances, will the SP go up from here, or not. It's of no concern to me. Good luck to them.

Everything else is noise, the debate will never convert a trader to an investor, or visa versa. Some get over it and move on. We trade if we want to, we invest if want to, neither can be be compared, they're poles apart strategies.

I disagree.

I agree with Ronaldson that the dividend policy can and certainly will effect the SP.

I just don't agree that they should manage the dividend policy to try and protect the SP.

And I don't think they do.

[SailorRob]

You say the only way they can effect the share price is with a buy back??

OK. Cut the dividend completely and see what happens.

Did the board just affect the share price or what??

[ronaldson]

It seems that for y/e 31/03/2022 the actual dividends paid during that 12 months were Final (for FY21) 2.1c and Interim 2.1c for a total of 4.2cps. Now for y/e 31/03/2023 the actual dividends paid are Final (for FY 22) 2.3c and Interim 1.9c for a total of 4.2cps - so unchanged albeit the higher Final dividend implied that if the Interim just paid today had been maintained at 2.1c the total would be 4.4cps.

In FY22 the dividends required an aggregate $29.3m against UNPAT of $56m. In FY23 with a marginally higher number of shares on issue the dividends will require an aggregate close to $30m. The half year UNPAT was $27.8m so full year should adequately cover that total figure. So I still believe the Board were meanspirited in not carrying through the increase implied.

[bull....]

they cut the dividend because cashflow has reduced .... plain and simple ..... they are conserving cash for the downturn.
Im expecting more dividend cuts too come

[Sideshow Bob]

It seems that for y/e 31/03/2022 the actual dividends paid during that 12 months were Final (for FY21) 2.1c and Interim 2.1c for a total of 4.2cps. Now for y/e 31/03/2023 the actual dividends paid are Final (for FY 22) 2.3c and Interim 1.9c for a total of 4.2cps - so unchanged albeit the higher Final dividend implied that if the Interim just paid today had been maintained at 2.1c the total would be 4.4cps.

In FY22 the dividends required an aggregate $29.3m against UNPAT of $56m. In FY23 with a marginally higher number of shares on issue the dividends will require an aggregate close to $30m. The half year UNPAT was $27.8m so full year should adequately cover that total figure. So I still believe the Board were meanspirited in not carrying through the increase implied.

That is probably assuming the whole lot goes out as cash?

Last dividend there was roughly $3.8m cash retained - or about 23% went into the DRP.

[ronaldson]

Yes, we are still awaiting the Capital Change Notice for yesterday's allotment from the DRIP to see how much cash has been retained from the gross dividend, but the % will be interesting. Of course, the offset is that the aggregate of shares on issue increases and NTA will be basically unaffected (ignoring the 2% discount calculation). It's like a mini equity raise.

[ronaldson]

O No - there it is! 5,352,547 shares issues or just over $4.3m cash retained in lieu. I was distracted by the World Cup football semi-final and took my eye off the ball!

[Sideshow Bob]

O No - there it is! 5,352,547 shares issues or just over $4.3m cash retained in lieu. I was distracted by the World Cup football semi-final and took my eye off the ball!

That is a higher proportion going into the DRP for this current divvy compared to the June one, which was about $3.8m retained based on a higher divvy of 2.3cps.

Actually, I mentioned in the prior post it was 23% went into the DRP. That would be wrong because 2.3cps is the gross amount, and the funds into the DRP would be after tax.

Regardless there is a decent portion of the divvy cash that stays within the company.

[ithaka]

Ithaka

BY C. P. CAVAFY
TRANSLATED BY EDMUND KEELEY

As you set out for Ithaka
hope your road is a long one,
full of adventure, full of discovery.
Laistrygonians, Cyclops,
angry Poseidon—don’t be afraid of them:
you’ll never find things like that on your way
as long as you keep your thoughts raised high,
as long as a rare excitement
stirs your spirit and your body.
Laistrygonians, Cyclops,
wild Poseidon—you won’t encounter them
unless you bring them along inside your soul,
unless your soul sets them up in front of you.

Hope your road is a long one.
May there be many summer mornings when,
with what pleasure, what joy,
you enter harbors you’re seeing for the first time;
may you stop at Phoenician trading stations
to buy fine things,
mother of pearl and coral, amber and ebony,
sensual perfume of every kind—
as many sensual perfumes as you can;
and may you visit many Egyptian cities
to learn and go on learning from their scholars.

Keep Ithaka always in your mind.
Arriving there is what you’re destined for.
But don’t hurry the journey at all.
Better if it lasts for years,
so you’re old by the time you reach the island,
wealthy with all you’ve gained on the way,
not expecting Ithaka to make you rich.

Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey.
Without her you wouldn't have set out.
She has nothing left to give you now.

And if you find her poor, Ithaka won’t have fooled you.
Wise as you will have become, so full of experience,
you’ll have understood by then what these Ithakas mean.


https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/51296/ithaka-56d22eef917ec

Great poem.

[RTM]

Great poem.

Sure is. Thank you Snow Leopard.

[Baa_Baa]

ANZ backed up the truck (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/404163/385730.pdf).

[ronaldson]

I had a quick look at the Substantial Holder Disclosure Notice referenced above by Baa Baa. The biggest transactor scheduled is ANZ New Zealand Investments Limited. Off market Buy trades in December 2021 were at $1.28 whereas in December 2022 the buys were at $0.80.4cps. On Market purchases from Sept 21 to Dec 22 totaled 12.66m at an average $0.92 and On Market sales over the same period totaled 4.66m at an average of $1.47.

The on-market outcome suggests the trading desk did a good job albeit the current pricing has perhaps regressed further than folk could reasonably have anticipated. It's unlikely they are stressing unduly holding an additional 8m bundle at $0.92 net especially when they profited significantly on the sales volume recorded above.

[BlackPeter]

ANZ backed up the truck (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/404163/385730.pdf).

not quite sure, though whether these are funds ANZ are actively managing (i.e. decided to buy), or whether this just means that individual ANZ customers who happen to have their shares in ANZ depots decided to buy OCA shares.

Anyway - looks like a good buy to me! And I guess somebody must start to buy to end a down trend :) ;

[Balance]

not quite sure, though whether these are funds ANZ are actively managing (i.e. decided to buy), or whether this just means that individual ANZ customers who happen to have their shares in ANZ depots decided to buy OCA shares.

Anyway - looks like a good buy to me! And I guess somebody must start to buy to end a down trend :) ;

So who have been selling?

ANZ bought big into PEB and for a while looked really good.

[Brain]

Why would any body think that ANZ are expert/infallible? Are there any experts in the sharemarket? I think that we are all in the same boat with our decisions, lucky at times and unlucky at other times. As an intellectually challenged alley cat I think I belong here.

[Entrep]

Why would any body think that ANZ are expert/infallible? Are there any experts in the sharemarket? I think that we are all in the same boat with our decisions, lucky at times and unlucky at other times. As an intellectually challenged alley cat I think belong here.

ANZ is more Officer Dibble imo.

[Baa_Baa]

Why would any body think that ANZ are expert/infallible? Are there any experts in the sharemarket? I think that we are all in the same boat with our decisions, lucky at times and unlucky at other times. As an intellectually challenged alley cat I think I belong here.

Well, if you're a customer of ANZ New Zealand Investments Limited, you'd hope they were experts. Anyhoo, they snaffled about 10m shares at a decent average and have around 7.5% of the company. If you had that much fire power, and vested interest, you'd be careful what you chose to invest in. Always nice to know who's on the buy side when the lemmings are being panicked out of their holdings. When the insto's are accumulating stock, it's some solace for the minnows like us, who are doing the same thing.

[Balance]

Why would any body think that ANZ are expert/infallible? Are there any experts in the sharemarket? I think that we are all in the same boat with our decisions, lucky at times and unlucky at other times. As an intellectually challenged alley cat I think I belong here.

ANZ should know the property sector well.

Your point is valid however - My Food Bag shows us what a bunch of amateurs some of the fund managers are when it comes to managing other people’s monies! All care and no responsibility.

[winner69]

All these fixed price contracts for building stuff OCA have

Hope not too many contractors / subbies go broke and leave OCA in the lurch.

[winner69]

Collapse of RYM share price the talk of the town at the moment

Since listing on the average the relativity between RYM and OCA has been 11 OCA shares for 1 RYM share. Its been like this most of the time (around the stupid times around the beginning of covid it got out of skew) and even this time last year it wasn't far away from that average.

Occassionally I'm tempted to buy a few more OCA but heck at the current relativity between RYM and OCA I reckon RYM is a much better bet going forward .....so that's on the buy list - probably around the time of the capital raise that punters are speculating on

I'm sure higehr returns from RYM over the next few years than from OCA