OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[mike2020]

Sounds like a stressful situation... is that why your always moody ..

Totally unwarranted

[Old mate]

No need to be a tool crypto.

[Perky]

What a dick. One of the most offensive comments I’ve read.
I hope you wake up in a better mood today…realise you’ve made a dick of yourself and apologise.

[Brain]

Sharetraders can report bad behaviour by clicking on the triangle with the exclamation mark on the bottom left of the post.

[ralph]

[QUOTE=Perky;975792]What a dick. One of the most offensive comments I’ve read.
I hope you wake up in a better mood today…realise you’ve made a dick of yourself and apologise.[/QUOTE
That's a Rude offensive comment perky ,at what was merely a joke by crypto .
Calm down has no one any humour left now in a Bear market obviously not O C A holders :p

[fish]

[QUOTE=Perky;975792]What a dick. One of the most offensive comments I’ve read.
I hope you wake up in a better mood today…realise you’ve made a dick of yourself and apologise.[/QUOTE
That's a Rude offensive comment perky ,at what was merely a joke by crypto .
Calm down has no one any humour left now in a Bear market obviously not O C A holders :p

Really?
Do you know what else crypto has posted about justakiwi ?

[Bjauck]

What a dick. One of the most offensive comments I’ve read.
I hope you wake up in a better mood today…realise you’ve made a dick of yourself and apologise.[/QUOTE
That's a Rude offensive comment perky ,at what was merely a joke by crypto .
Calm down has no one any humour left now in a Bear market obviously not O C A holders :p Black humour?
Maybe you are right. However in response to what Justakiwi shared with us, it was probably the type of "joke" to share only if they were talking face-to-face though. Hats off to crypto crude though if he/she stoically cares for people with high needs.

[justakiwi]

I posted a while back, telling CC to stop stalking me, and got berated for it by more than a few. But that is exactly what he has been doing. The moment I post anything in any forum, he comes back with a response such as this one. It is intentional. So thank you for recognising that.

Appreciate the supportive comments everyone.

He is a dick, which is why he is now on ignore. Karma will get him some day.




Really?
Do you know what else crypto has posted about justakiwi ?

[bottomfeeder]

I posted a while back, telling CC to stop stalking me, and got berated for it by more than a few. But that is exactly what he has been doing. The moment I post anything in any forum, he comes back with a response such as this one. It is intentional. So thank you for recognising that.

Appreciate the supportive comments everyone.

He is a dick, which is why he is now on ignore. Karma will get him some day.

CC does it to anyone who doesnt agree with his view of the world. He was touting bitcoin a number of months ago. Down 73% now. So if he puts his money where his mouth is, he will be feeling it badly.
See the crypto thread.

[Crypto Crude]

Nothing sinister in my post...
Just stating an observation...
Always being mean to me...

[Crypto Crude]

I'm sorry if anyone thinks my post is that bad... it really is not... but if so, apologies once again...
Fish is not creditable...

Carry on with the topic..

[Perky]

Good man CC. Thanks for apologising. I reacted because this was not the first time you’ve had a crack at her and it just needs to stop. Anyway you’ve apologised and like you say..back to topic.

[bottomfeeder]

Recent news regarding unit licensees getting a share of the gain on sale and non payment of costs when moved out does not mean lower profits to providers. It just changes the metric for purchase, refurbishment, interest on units not being used but awaiting sale, and in a falling market does not stop the provider from making a low all offer of purchase. Can you imagine a resident dying, then their family placing the unit on the market at an inflated price, perhaps in a less than satisfactory condition, and because the pay no costs sitting on it for extended times. Not going to happen. Not even a residential house has those benefits. It's not going to work. The providor has an obligation to the comfort of the next occupier that they have a clean, modern, and comfortable residence. If the elderly tenant controlled the process, they would all become detiorated slums after a period of time.

These proposed changes will never go ahead.

[Curly]

Recent news regarding unit licensees getting a share of the gain on sale and non payment of costs when moved out does not mean lower profits to providers. It just changes the metric for purchase, refurbishment, interest on units not being used but awaiting sale, and in a falling market does not stop the provider from making a low all offer of purchase. Can you imagine a resident dying, then their family placing the unit on the market at an inflated price, perhaps in a less than satisfactory condition, and because the pay no costs sitting on it for extended times. Not going to happen. Not even a residential house has those benefits. It's not going to work. The providor has an obligation to the comfort of the next occupier that they have a clean, modern, and comfortable residence. If the elderly tenant controlled the process, they would all become detiorated slums after a period of time.

These proposed changes will never go ahead.
Would also need to factor in the multitude of running costs carried by the Rest Home. That would also need to be apportioned out to the occupier. Government can not be to harsh otherwise providers will walk away and Government cannot pick up the service of elderly rest home care. It will only be a tweak of the figures and a juggle here and there.
Storm in a tea cup and will have little effect on business model once done and dusted.

[ronaldson]

I thought most of the NZX listed providers already commit to ceasing village fees upon vacancy, and to interest upon the capital (not sure if that is the original investment or that sum less the 20 or 30% deferred management fee - probably the latter) if not reimbursed from sale within 9 months, so really doesn't this debate affect only fringe players?

[Maverick]

On a really different topic to the very good RV discussion lately ...

I've Just tidied up my expectations for OCAs finance cost with the recent sharp run up in NZ borrowing costs. The damage that will do to the underlying profit is meaningful but not as bad as it could have been.

They normally have been expanding their debt costs as they ramp up their building rates at the rate of $1-$2m P/A but I reckon this year it will jump to be around a $3.5m increase ( so roughly an extra $2m on top of the usual increase).

So while it is material, they dodged a small bullet with their bond offers and new shares issued. About 60% of their debt ($225m)is now locked in at at an average of 2.75%.

Definitely a cost head wind to knock off some of the increased profits coming that I've recently written about. But I`ve got to take my hat off to their prescience.

(even the legendary Beagle applauded Brent at the time for it)

[ronaldson]

NZ Herald article today seems to identify the village at issue for not paying out a departing resident for (so far) 10 months as Woodlands Boutique Retirement Village, a family owned 17 villa development in Bethlehem near Tauranga.

I googled it and noted some adverse feedback about management but the actual village, which clearly does not attempt the 'continuum of care' model but simply provides secure private living with limited additional amenities. It certainly looked somewhere I could live, with a relatively cheap entry price and the 30% deferred management cost incurred by 7.5% increments over 4 years. Some angst was evident over the $189 weekly fee, which perhaps was not fixed as is the case with most listed operators.

It seemed the reason for the delay in reimbursing the departing resident was lack of owner capital and the fact that over the period the owner/s allegedly had no fewer than four conditional sales where the intending purchaser could not obtain a sale of their existing home in the current market conditions.

Even if you take the " facts " with a grain of salt the particular issue should probably have been sorted by the owner/s earlier, but the matter is now the subject of complaint to the RVA who are no doubt unimpressed by the industry fallout triggered by a relatively insignificant member of their association from a single instance.

[Maverick]

On a really different topic to the very good RV discussion lately ...

I've Just tidied up my expectations for OCAs finance cost with the recent sharp run up in NZ borrowing costs. The damage that will do to the underlying profit is meaningful but not as bad as it could have been.

They normally have been expanding their debt costs as they ramp up their building rates at the rate of $1-$2m P/A but I reckon this year it will jump to be around a $3.5m increase ( so roughly an extra $2m on top of the usual increase).

So while it is material, they dodged a small bullet with their bond offers and new shares issued. About 60% of their debt ($225m)is now locked in at at an average of 2.75%.

Definitely a cost head wind to knock off some of the increased profits coming that I've recently written about. But I`ve got to take my hat off to their prescience.

(even the legendary Beagle applauded Brent at the time for it)
This projection needs updating already after Ferg pointed out that the remaining 40% of debt is at a lesser rate than I factored. I had made an assumption on that 40% part of the debt based on recent heavy rate rises but turns out OCA have fixed that too. Some of these swap-rates ( just wanted to say that word) are fixed for up to 5 years. Damn those guys are good!

So total jump in finance cost should be around $2.4m increase ( so roughly an extra $1m extra on top of the usual increase).

Thanks for pointing that out Ferg, your expertise is much appreciated.

I know this kind of detail is a but pedantic on this forum but its not right for me to rave on about how good the incomes are going without mentioning the negatives. Then its also not right to not correct anything inaccurate I've said.

[Habits]

This projection needs updating already after Ferg pointed out that the remaining 40% of debt is at a lesser rate than I factored. I had made an assumption on that 40% part of the debt based on recent heavy rate rises but turns out OCA have fixed that too. Some of these swap-rates ( just wanted to say that word) are fixed for up to 5 years. Damn those guys are good!

So total jump in finance cost should be around $2.4m increase ( so roughly an extra $1m extra on top of the usual increase).

Thanks for pointing that out Ferg, your expertise is much appreciated.

I know this kind of detail is a but pedantic on this forum but its not right for me to rave on about how good the incomes are going without mentioning the negatives. Then its also not right to not correct anything inaccurate I've said.

Great in-depth answers from you Mav. I dont always understand the detail, I take it you mean that this is a positive development.

I did buy a parcel at a dollar so am left guessing why the sp keeps sh**ting itself. Rising bond yields I guess

[Ferg]

I take it you mean that this is a positive development.
It is a partial positive on an overall negative. Funding costs will increase off the back of rising interest rates. Maverick assumed all non-bond debt was subject to floating rates. However OCA have fixed some of that debt using interest rate swap agreements per the last annual report. This meant Maverick's original assessment of increased interest costs was too high - his subsequent post is correcting that in light of the swap agreements. Organisations of this size often have a treasury policy which stipulates things like fixing interest rates etc. (and FX) rather than leaving themselves exposed to the whims and fluctuations of various markets.

[Poolboy]

Darn. I'm 8 and was hoping to retire at 12. But it looks like I'm going to have to clean pools for a few more years. Pity those halfwits in government have decided to have a hate campaign against us retirement home people. Oh well, they'll be gone next election.

[Habits]

It is a partial positive on an overall negative. Funding costs will increase off the back of rising interest rates. Maverick assumed all non-bond debt was subject to floating rates. However OCA have fixed some of that debt using interest rate swap agreements per the last annual report. This meant Maverick's original assessment of increased interest costs was too high - his subsequent post is correcting that in light of the swap agreements. Organisations of this size often have a treasury policy which stipulates things like fixing interest rates etc. (and FX) rather than leaving themselves exposed to the whims and fluctuations of various markets.

I see, I was thinking something along those lines and it is good of you to identify it Ferg that they have swap agreements in place. Local lenders and not foreign cash I assume otherwise OCA will need fx hedging or the interest saving would be eaten by the fall in the nzd.

[Maverick]

Perfect summary Ferg!
That's the true beauty of this forum where we can all work together for the best outcome.
" The group is smarter than any individual "

[justakiwi]

Rubbish, they have done no such thing. They have merely listened to some of the current concerns being expressed and have indicated that they need to be looked at. The Aged Care/Retirement sector is already being proactive with their 12 month trial of changes, as discussed previously. Whichever government is in after the election will have to visit these issues, along with the issue of funding. This is not a Labour issue - it is a Government issue, and it needs to be addressed.


Pity those halfwits in government have decided to have a hate campaign against us retirement home people.

Time will tell, but neither "side" should count their chickens just yet.


Oh well, they'll be gone next election.

[allfromacell]

The NZD just hit a fresh 52 week low, fortunately or unfortunately the takeover offer will be here before year end.

[Habits]

Its funny how the election is over a year away yet we have been talking about it for at least the last six months and looking forward to labour being rolled :D


The NZD just hit a fresh 52 week low, fortunately or unfortunately the takeover offer will be here before year end.

Do you think some might get caught out with the ol exchange rate losses?

[Poolboy]

Time will tell, but neither "side" should count their chickens just yet.

Haha, it's a better bet than buying more OCA.

In fact I'll bet you 10 to 1, how does that sound?

[winner69]

I see, I was thinking something along those lines and it is good of you to identify it Ferg that they have swap agreements in place. Local lenders and not foreign cash I assume otherwise OCA will need fx hedging or the interest saving would be eaten by the fall in the nzd.

Swaps are good for planning cash flows and getting some certainty around that ….but many forget that swaps are a zero sum game and that for every ‘winner’ there has to be a ‘loser’

Hope OCA not on the losing side of too many deals ……but then I’m told ‘heck these guys are good’ so no worries

[winner69]

Way share price going it could be the 80s soon.

NZD will probably fall more … Oceania an attractive takeover target?

Comment elsewhere was an offer at $1 could see a deal being done as many punters would be happy to be put out of their misery …….

Ridiculous …but one never knows what might happen

[mike2020]

Get outa here. It was a dollar just weeks ago. If it gets to 80 people will be filling up the diesel tank, dusting the reversing camera and cleaning the decks.

[Poolboy]

Comment elsewhere was an offer at $1 could see a deal being done as many punters would be happy to be put out of their misery …….



I'd be happy with $1 The other kids at school laughed at me when I bought mine at 76 cents. I'm the one laughing now.

[bottomfeeder]

Way share price going it could be the 80s soon.

NZD will probably fall more … Oceania an attractive takeover target?

Comment elsewhere was an offer at $1 could see a deal being done as many punters would be happy to be put out of their misery …….

Ridiculous …but one never knows what might happen

No way, I think any deal would be lucky to even go ahead at $1.50. I don't know who the commentators are, but they certainly are not existing shareholders. I think that such rumours are started by the actual takeover group so when they come up with their $1.25 offer everyone is relieved. It won't work.

Or start the rumour at $1.00, then buyer demand will disappear until the SP drops to 70 cents, when the shady group starts buying to get their foothold. This psychological manipulation with the SP is going on, it's akin to white collar crime.

Dont be fooled. OCA is a much stronger company than it is being credited by the current SP.

[Rawz]

If I got a $1 offer I’d spit on it.

Min $1.35 and I’d feel robbed at that level! But then no more suffering

[Maverick]

Over the last month or so I've started to breakdown why I'm very confident OCAs profit is about to strongly move upwards and onwards from here.
I suspect folk will be getting tired of my long posts about how good this company is while the entire world , other than a few on this forum, says it isn't ( ie. the SP). But let's carry on with a long weekend and get "care" out of the way.

To recap, the biggest driver of this profit increase , covered in post 13407, is the new build margins. We will see them increasing nicely and even more so as The Hell-yeah joins the list and the new build rate has also increased. The second profit increase driver is explained in post 13468, That's is essentially OCAs increase on embedded values that will also start flowing through as higher resale profits come in from higher resale prices.

Lets get onto the third ( of 5) driver , this is the difficult one that has caused so much grief on this forum ...Care profits.

A bit of background first…
OCA used to make reasonable care profit when they listed in 2017 but it has almost halved since then. The care side of the business certainly looks an abject failure on this measure. I think it is widely accepted that it's primarily caused by systematic reduction in Govt funding. It has also been repeatedly highlighted on this forum that “ rampant health care costs” have also largely contributed to the crashing profits. Also stated this will continue to consume any profit increases for many years yet. I strongly disagree on this second point but acknowledge it does look that way if one doesn't do quite intense investigation.

Understanding the reducing care profits beyond the basic numbers is a complicated task since OCA has listed and takes a lot of unpacking. It has been a conglomeration of layers of issues...
A. large numbers of bed decommissions ( one example is they removed 411 beds in one 6 month period alone in 2019- imagine all the considerations for cost/income distortions and what that does to the care profit).
B. Muddying of accounts with wage subsidy receipt and then a year later being fully repaid. A shortened 10 month year to change balance dates.
C. Covid effects of both lockdowns and direct costs.
D. Inefficiencies of care costs and staffing as the newly delivered care suites slowly fill up which takes a few years.
E. Inefficiencies of grandfathering original residents into the newly built care suites as their original premises now need to be demolished.
F. High wage rises.
G. Reducing Govt funding.

This list makes OCA care look pretty damned, however, there is now some good news;
A+E All “disruptive” bed decommissions and client grandfathering are now all but done and dusted.
B+C Also fully behind us now.
D, OCA have passed the inflection point (2020 as per chart below ) where their earlier deliveries are now optimizing at a rate that is offsetting the newer temporarily inefficient deliveries coming on stream. I understand there are only 2 recent deliveries now without a wait list. Note, of the deliveries are 100% full , some have grandfathered clients. This makes OCAs empty stock level look disastrous as grandfathered care suites are registered as “unsold”. ( A crucial point to understand- they are not empty.)
F+G. This does appear to be a massive and ongoing problem. The rest of this post is to help demonstrate why OCA have got a good handle on this and why it's all about to seemingly magically come right.

Here goes…
Govt funding has reduced over the years to now only leave a slither of profit for OCA ( as per the graph below) after expenses. It seems that the Govt people in white coats have decided how many “$ Jenga pieces” they can remove without collapsing the industry - well at least so far. They appear to have reached that low level 3 years ago.

BUT, IT HAS STABILIZED. Over the last 3 years OCA has now consistently only made about 2% of the $160m govt revenue to keep as profit after expenses.
To put this in perspective; OCA makes almost as much out of their “care training facility” now as they do looking after its entire NZ care operation of 2600 beds.

So OCA makes virtually nothing out of the Govt DHB fees after costs. The good news is that it has not gotten any worse for 3 years now. One has to make a slight mental adjustment that OCA spent an extra (non recurring as stated by Brent at the AGM) $2.5m on covid in 2022 which causes the slight dip on blue line on the chart below. I believe that the Govt knows they can not reduce their pay out any more without doors closing. They may have already gone too far which will need unwinding at some point. So that has put a floor on any more funding cuts. God knows how the 40% of NZ rest homes (those outside of the big 6 operators ) without care suits get by.
So as nurses etc have cost more recently , the Govt has also recently kept pace with their annual DHB rate rises, they even chucked in an extra surprise one off increase too. I believe they will continue to do so as what other choice do they have from here?

The good news for investors though is that for every dollar the Govt no longer supplies, OCA are now making almost as much by premium fees plus their training facility.
This year my 2023 forecast, included also on the chart below, says the almost linear increase in premium fees are just about at the point where they are going to exceed what has since been withheld from our good ol` kind Govt. Onwards and upwards from there.
One can generally say the government is now virtually only paying for all OCA care expenses and any actual profit now comes only from premium care charges, plus the school ( which is always flat around $1.5m) . The increase on extra charging , therefore profit, from here just keeps rising linearly.

As an aside….there is talk that OCA won't even bother the government for care fees at the Helier at all as their clients won't get the DHB subsidy anyway. IMO, its pretty cool when they can work their model to completely sidestep the govt as a business partner. Especially after the entire sector has been shafted so badly.- I digress.

It is also my opinion, that there are more risks to care profit to the upside as costs proportionality reduce slightly as efficiencies grow ( one example -OCA occupancy is only 92% while ARV achieves around 95%), borders opening to more labour and there's always a slight chance Govt has to increase funding at some stage as a crisis evolves - that will all be cream that OCA has learned to live without. These pleasant potential upsides are of course not in my workings.

Care profit is the most difficult part to untease about OCA and so I have tried to keep it brief. I said at the beginning that care profit is very difficult to unpack but here's the short cut method going forward…
(DHB fees x 2%) +PAC fees+DMF fees + $1.5m school profit +- one offs = care profit.

The only remaining key factors left to consider for OCAs overall underlying profit are;
1. the ever increasing village DMFs
2. Additional profit of the acquisitions after contributing for a full year
3. On the negative side, increased corporate + interest costs.
All of these remaining factors are pretty straight forward and
aren't particularly time consuming to put together. They can be for another day unless someone else wants to write them up.

So there you go folks, the five drivers of income are simultaneously rising, the key ones strongly. There will be some offset in increased corporate / interest expenses (discussed recently) but be assured that I've done plenty of work in that area and there's a lot left on the plate. The next 2 years especially are going to be very rewarding for those who have hung in this long, especially 2024
Here's the chart that will help it all make sense.( 2023 is my forecast) and why care is going to be ok.
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/LrExlszH5A5oJFt-ycmf6gvMN26P-t3icvsYtVvamlTzH0fvYapeChKtkJEJ-v5IeokGs3tDNlvOvtsZv8S99mP519_J1DtFAOzZ_sGyE3E_seu 5aChKeIrlijoaXu-sQQdeOPdQI1cZ1qV_vsRwNZYVcVaMjmx821N6MbR2og17BYDhu x7f5gsm9A

[justakiwi]

I'd be seriously pissed off if there was a takeover. I have faith in the company and nothing has changed for me in that regard. No "suffering" involved.

[Ferg]

Nice work Maverick. IMO realised gains on care suites should also be factored into the underlying profit for "Care". They currently sit in the village P&L. Such gains could not be made in the absence of the care model. I'm guessing they are not part of the "other" in your numbers? However, normally one needs to back out depreciation on care suites to be consistent with the OCA presentation, but I think they could be added together from a simplistic perspective.

Realised gains for care suites were:
FY17 $2.6m
FY18 $3.7m
FY19 $10.5m
FY20 $16.1m
FY21 $15.6m (10 months)
FY22 $15.6m
FY23: ?

[Maverick]

Nice work Maverick. IMO realised gains on care suites should also be factored into the underlying profit for "Care". They currently sit in the village P&L. Such gains could not be made in the absence of the care model. I'm guessing they are not part of the "other" in your numbers? However, normally one needs to back out depreciation on care suites to be consistent with the OCA presentation, but I think they could be added together from a simplistic perspective.


Hey Ferg,
My base model is laid out exactly as per their layout in the "investor presentation" - not "Annual report" which I'm guessing is the more correct layout that a man of your caliber would use.
So while , in principle ,I agree that care profit should actually read higher than it does when these extra earnings are included. But lets park that to the side for now and just work with how OCA present it for this conversation.

Accordingly the care suite resale gains are already accounted for in my second of this series under "embedded value" ( the one about profit is set to increase because of increased resale prices- this includes the care suites).

The same logic applies to depreciation. That they lump it all as just one number the end on the investor presentation.
I do know in the AR they charge this then give back that etc but that confuses the hell out of me. ( Basically care stuff depreciates faster than village stuff but itemizing all that makes the figures seem out of step compared with their peers so that's why they present it as one net number in the investor presentation - as you suggest, for simplicity.)

All I need to know is the overall final depreciation rate that comes off the underlying profit as long as it is consistent and predictable- which it is. So by doing this , it now seems in line with the other RV`s. ....You will know all this of course but if any one else is interested then it should help - or send them to sleep.

[Bjauck]

Thanks for your post Maverick. As an aside….there is talk that OCA won't even bother the government for care fees at the Helier at all as their clients won't get the DHB subsidy anyway. IMO, its pretty cool when they can work their model to completely sidestep the govt as a business partner. Especially after the entire sector has been shafted so badly.- I digress

That would certainly be an interesting development. At the moment if residents are ineligible for a subsidy the rest homes still need to co-operate with government departments and private funding residents pay up to the maximum contribution as set by the MoH, with premium services charged additionally. I imagine if “exclusive” rest homes still wanted to offer their services, they would still need to registered and regularly examined by a government body.

‘Even at the Helier, I would imagine there could be a few residents, who had been long-time residents in the neighbourhood of the Eastern Bays, whose affairs are such, that they could be eligible for subsidies. Also some residents may have rich family assisting with the costs of purchasing an accommodation ORA, and would like access to the on-site rest home if needed..

[BlackPeter]

Great post, Mav. Thanks for putting this together. Where is the reputation button when you need it?

I bookmarked this post and will use it as reference.

Anyway - I am glad that your view on the details shows the same picture as my high level view. Turning cr*ppy old sites in great locations into luxury care suites and sell them will first cost a lot of money (and this is what we have seen so far) and then make a lot of money (this is the bit coming now)."

Some of the posters here forget the most important trait of any investor: Patience! But hey, at the end of the day this site is called sharetrader, so this might be understandable ;) ;

Back to your post ... the blowing out of carer wages combined with a government philosophy which prefers to spend other peoples money (though, at the end, that's what every government does) did somewhat delay the process ... but you are absolutely right - they are clearly now scrapping along the bottom. Unless this (or the future government) wants to see care providers turning belly up in droves up like the salmon in NZK's much too warm waters ... they need to start to increase their care subsidies in step with the increased (often government generated) cost - right NOW.

Great post - cheers.

[Panda-NZ-]

A future govt could embark on cost cutting - esp when health funding doesn't increase by more than CPI this subsidy will be at risk.

[BlackPeter]

A future govt could embark on cost cutting - esp when health funding doesn't increase by more than CPI this subsidy will be at risk.

Just wait until they need to move the mongrel mob out of the Rotorua 5 star hotels to fill them instead with all the homeless care patients (whose retirement homes went broke).

Unless you propose that this future government you are talking about turned NZ into the next Russia or China ... I suggest that no democratic future government will be able to survive the pictures of homeless care patients lying in the streets.

They need to find a way to appropriately fund the level of care they (and we all) want.

[Panda-NZ-]

Unless you propose that this future government you are talking about turned NZ into the next Russia or China ... I suggest that no democratic future government will be able to survive the pictures of homeless care patients lying in the streets.

The standards of care could be cut (esp when combined with a deregulatory "reform").

[BlackPeter]

The standards of care could be cut (esp when combined with a deregulatory "reform").

Sure ... but where is the problem for the retirement sector?

Wealthy customers will be able to afford for themselves the care standards they want and deserve.

The less wealthy will get the care standards as chosen appropriate by the government they elected. If the government money is only enough to live in a tent village with self care, than this is what they will get.

Maybe another business unit for THL?

OCA (and others) will be able to provide better services for the ones who are able to pay.

Fair enough, isn't it? ... I guess if people really want to live that way (otherwise they would pick another government) - where exactly is the problem?

[ronaldson]

Not to mention the need to fund the new Maori Health Authority and all its associated initiatives, which will undoubtedly constrain all other health expenditures for years to come.

[Balance]

Sure ... but where is the problem for the retirement sector?

Wealthy customers will be able to afford for themselves the care standards they want and deserve.

The less wealthy will get the care standards as chosen appropriate by the government they elected. If the government money is only enough to live in a tent village with self care, than this is what they will get.

Maybe another business unit for THL?

OCA (and others) will be able to provide better services for the ones who are able to pay.

Fair enough, isn't it? ... I guess if people really want to live that way (otherwise they would pick another government) - where exactly is the problem?

Excellent response, BP.

Very revealing though about the woolly and socialist thinking of the current government - as articulated from the likes of panda who is an avowed Ardern & Labour supporter.

They prefer systems which deliver the same low and miserable standard to everyone - be it health, education or any services. If necessary, take from those who study hard, work hard and save hard to those who don't to achieve the great leveling and dumbing down.

[Panda-NZ-]

Excellent response, BP.

Very revealing though about the woolly and socialist thinking of the current government - as articulated from the likes of panda who is an avowed Ardern & Labour supporter.

They prefer systems which deliver the same low and miserable standard to everyone - be it health, education or any services. If necessary, take from those who study hard, work hard and save hard to those who don't to achieve the great leveling and dumbing down.

People who have worked all their lives (and paid income tax through PAYE compared to the wealthy who often pay nothing) deserve dignity in their last years.

[Balance]

People who have worked all their lives (and paid income tax through PAYE compared to the wealthy who often pay nothing) deserve dignity in their last years.

Ardern & Labour takes from those who study hard, work hard and save hard to those who don't.

Those who don't = Ardern voters.

[Panda-NZ-]

Ardern & Labour takes from those who study hard, work hard and save hard to those who don't.

If people vote for that, then who cares really.

[Bjauck]

Ardern & Labour takes from those who study hard, work hard and save hard to those who don't.

Those who don't = Ardern voters.
Another poster on a political thread coined the word Jacindanoia . It looks like it has afflicted non-political* threads too.

*Sure, politics and government can affect most aspects of business and life in general!

[Balance]

If people vote for that, then who cares really.

Really?

Ardern does not deliver on promises she made to get voted into power but delivers what nobody votes for.

Like people voted for the housing disaster and $1 billion spent on emergency housing?

Like people voted for Hipkins inciting abuse & odium against a pregnant woman because she challenged the pulpit of truth?

[Baa_Baa]

Take your politics to the appropriate threads, thank you.

[Balance]

Take your politics to the appropriate threads, thank you.

You realise of course that the biggest negative impact on businesses currently is big government policies under Ardern?

[justakiwi]

Taking you off ignore temporarily to second Baa_Baa's request. We are perfectly capable of recognising for themselves the impact government policies have on our investments. Regardless of which government's policies they might be. We do not need you and your cohorts to continually hijack investment related threads with your political diatribes. You are like a cracked record, with nothing new to say, and it is not only mind-blowingly boring, it is nauseating. I am hitting the report button this time, and I suggest anyone else who has had enough, does the same.


You realise of course that the biggest negative impact on businesses currently is big government policies under Ardern?

[Balance]

Taking you off ignore temporarily to second Baa_Baa's request. We are perfectly capable of recognising for themselves the impact government policies have on our investments. Regardless of which government's policies they might be. We do not need you and your cohorts to continually hijack investment related threads with your political diatribes. You are like a cracked record, with nothing new to say, and it is not only mind-blowingly boring, it is nauseating. I am hitting the report button this time, and I suggest anyone else who has had enough, does the same.

Not my fault you voted for Ardern & her ruinous housing policies which created an unsustainable boom and now, a disastrous collapse in property prices flowing into ever lower retirement villages valuations.

Yet you profess to understand how big government policies affect stocks?

[850man]

Not my fault you voted for Ardern & her ruinous housing policies which created an unsustainable boom and now, a disastrous collapse in property prices flowing into ever lower retirement villages valuations.

Yet you profess to understand how big government policies affect stocks?

Being this is a forum for share traders and investors, seems fair to comment on things that impact on outcomes for those involved with these activities. Without a doubt impact has come and continues to come from government policy and decisions emanating from socialist ideology and a complete lack of even fundamental business experience and economic knowledge.

[justakiwi]

I have no objection to political impacts being discussed maturely and rationally, providing they don't venture off subject. What I do object to is the constant hijacking of investment related threads (as opposed to off-topic threads) by repetitive, emotional outbursts accompanied by personal attacks and insults (directed at politicians and other posters). Balance has been on his bandwagon for literally years. He has nothing new to contribute. It is a never-ending stream of the same "story" and the same insults, over and over again. Ad infinitum. It contributes nothing to our discussion about OCA. As I said in my previous post, we are all capable of coming to our own conclusions about the impacts of political decisions on our investment. Whether Balance believes that or not, it is fact. I want to discuss OCA, not politics, and take advantage of some of the in depth research being done by one or two posters. There are a number of alternative threads available for Balance (and others) to take his anger and ranting to. All I am asking is that he does that.


Being this is a forum for share traders and investors, seems fair to comment on things that impact on outcomes for those involved with these activities. Without a doubt impact has come and continues to come from government policy and decisions emanating from socialist ideology and a complete lack of even fundamental business experience and economic knowledge.

[Ggcc]

You realise of course that the biggest negative impact on businesses currently is big government policies under Ardern?

Amen. I don't mind as I understand where you come from in the discussion.

In the last few years this government have been sitting with their hands under their bottoms and are not sure how they got out of this rubbish they got themselves into. They seem to want to spend, but they don't send it onto the areas requiring it the most. The healthcare sector is one of these areas.

This government have sent money to multiple people I know that didn't need it, but hey they were entitled to it, so I don't blame them if they hire a great accountant.

[Bjauck]

Amen. I don't mind as I understand where you come from in the discussion.

In the last few years this government have been sitting with their hands under their bottoms and are not sure how they got out of this rubbish they got themselves into. They seem to want to spend, but they don't send it onto the areas requiring it the most. The healthcare sector is one of these areas.

This government have sent money to multiple people I know that didn't need it, but hey they were entitled to it, so I don't blame them if they hire a great accountant.
The initial fight against Covid led by Ardern was very successful mostly in helping keep the dreaded lurgie out of our rest homes - to the benefit of OCA. However why didn’t the govt make sure the flood of cheap Covid money was channeled into industry and business instead of into boosting the price of residential real estate? They could have raised higher the LTV requirements etc. as other countries did.

[Ferg]

To get this back on track, here is the OCA's P&L presented in a more traditional format that I posted elsewhere:

14182

And some high level KPIs: (red triangles indicate an annualised figure)

14183

Take from these what you will...but an interesting observation is the total DMF revenue divided into the prior year "Management Fee Receivable" figure per the notes in the accounts shows a nice trend and IMO a predictable value. I can already see $57m in DMF revenues in the coming fiscal year, but that is before taking into account any DMF fees from the recent Bream Bay and Remuera/Newmarket acquisitions. This means my $57m will be lower than the actual DMF revenues.

[Baa_Baa]

A lot is said about EPS but in the RV sector they all have poor dividend returns compared to CPI and other established payers, with OCA the best, SUM and RYM the worst. EPS is nothing if it cannot be realised by an investor without having to sell their stock. All RV's need to realise that their investor returns are less than can be achieved by a bank term deposit (yes, it's changed fairly quickly but it is what it is). I'd not weight my investment in the RV's, which I have diversified across the sector, by EPS, as I have no intention of realising the EPS by selling my shares. Such a conundrum, EPS is a useless measure if it cannot be realised by anything other than disposing of the asset/equity. If EPS doesn't reflect in earnings distributions, then EPS is a bogus measure. OCA is still the highest paying dividend, the others are pathetic by comparison, consuming their EPS in growth and ignoring their shareholders interests in income, forcing the focus onto share price and the awkward realisation of that by having to sell to achieve it, and be taxed and fee'd, rather than underlying profit and constant growing distributions.

[nztx]

Thanks folks for the views .. mostly supporting why I'm elsewhere actively banking real returns and
large dividends from real companies engaged in perhaps some of the less green activities..

It is what it is and I dont mind parting with a few bucket fills of tax on distributions from real activities
rather than 33% DWT on concocted internal funny money revaluations which may or may not have
generated any real cash, before parts thereof are arbitarily divided up for distribution as a feel good
exercise.. What happens when the revaluations across companies in the sector mostly start going south ? ;)

How many in the sector are any better than Cashflow neutral - perhaps to the point where revaluations
are no longer the big notional revenue, then real Occupant activities will pick up and pay similar dividend yields in an economy which is increasingly bobbing in between the passing storm clouds, with capsizes expected to become more frequent ? :)

For what it's worth I see little point in paying excessive DWT on mediocre dividend yield returns in an inflationary climate while the SP continues sailing south along with business confidence locally .. that can also be said of many NZX listed companies not just this sector.

[bull....]

Thanks folks for the views .. mostly supporting why I'm elsewhere actively banking real returns and
large dividends from real companies engaged in perhaps some of the less green activities..

It is what it is and I dont mind parting with a few bucket fills of tax on distributions from real activities
rather than 33% DWT on concocted internal funny money revaluations which may or may not have
generated any real cash, before parts thereof are arbitarily divided up for distribution as a feel good
exercise.. What happens when the revaluations across companies in the sector mostly start going south ? ;)

How many in the sector are any better than Cashflow neutral - perhaps to the point where revaluations
are no longer the big notional revenue, then real Occupant activities will pick up and pay similar dividend yields in an economy which is increasingly bobbing in between the passing storm clouds, with capsizes expected to become more frequent ? :)

For what it's worth I see little point in paying excessive DWT on mediocre dividend yield returns in an inflationary climate while the SP continues sailing south along with business confidence locally .. that can also be said of many NZX listed companies not just this sector.

too true better options in a bank account. esp with rates here heading higher no good for companies in this sector that rely on debt for expansion

[Poolboy]

Funny thing is, it doesn't matter how much analysis you do, and how well the company should be doing, it doesn't make any difference when the markets are tuning to crap.

[777]

Funny thing is, it doesn't matter how much analysis you do, and how well the company should be doing, it doesn't make any difference when the markets are tuning to crap.

Totally correct.

[Balance]

Funny thing is, it doesn't matter how much analysis you do, and how well the company should be doing, it doesn't make any difference when the markets are tuning to crap.

Disagree.

That’s when superior analysis and research allow the smart investors to snap up bargains and make serious gains WHEN markets recover.

[BlackPeter]

Funny thing is, it doesn't matter how much analysis you do, and how well the company should be doing, it doesn't make any difference when the markets are tuning to crap.

Well, the right answer is - as always ... "it depends".

And no matter what you invest in ... better learn to embrace uncertainty!

However - some things are more predictable than others.

If you go through an economic crisis, than as a rule transport companies are more likely to benefit earlier than others. Just check the last handful of economic crisis.

If you are going into a housing crisis, than companies providing housing are more likely to do better than others.

If you are moving towards a top heavy population pyramid with increased need for care, than companies providing professional care are more likely to do better than others.

I think they are well positioned, but - whether it takes another year or handful of years until the market realizes that, who (but a trader) would care?

But of course ... we are talking likelihoods and nobody can predict the future of any individual stock or element. This is statistics for you.

[Habits]

Funny thing is, it doesn't matter how much analysis you do, and how well the company should be doing, it doesn't make any difference when the markets are tuning to crap.

The trend is what counts and you can clearly see where this stock is headed... at least to the 88 cent low... sad though

[Balance]

The trend is what counts and you can clearly see where this stock is headed... at least to the 88 cent low... sad though

I pick 80c before it bottoms out - property sector is not going anywhere and there is bugger all yield support with the RV stocks.

[RTM]

A lot is said about EPS but in the RV sector they all have poor dividend returns compared to CPI and other established payers, with OCA the best, SUM and RYM the worst. EPS is nothing if it cannot be realised by an investor without having to sell their stock. All RV's need to realise that their investor returns are less than can be achieved by a bank term deposit (yes, it's changed fairly quickly but it is what it is). I'd not weight my investment in the RV's, which I have diversified across the sector, by EPS, as I have no intention of realising the EPS by selling my shares. Such a conundrum, EPS is a useless measure if it cannot be realised by anything other than disposing of the asset/equity. If EPS doesn't reflect in earnings distributions, then EPS is a bogus measure. OCA is still the highest paying dividend, the others are pathetic by comparison, consuming their EPS in growth and ignoring their shareholders interests in income, forcing the focus onto share price and the awkward realisation of that by having to sell to achieve it, and be taxed and fee'd, rather than underlying profit and constant growing distributions.

I feel the same as this about many stocks, not just RV’s.
Given we are relying on dividends to pay our bills, I really don’t want to be needing to sell shares to fund our lifestyle. So far so good. We also maintain decent sized cash buffer in case dividends diminish.

[Habits]

I pick 80c before it bottoms out - property sector is not going anywhere and there is bugger all yield support with the RV stocks.

That price would be a shock to many... in the meantime i guess you will be hated by a few.

[850man]

paying 80c for something with an asset value of $1.30, how is that not a bargain. Then there's the 5% divvy as well!

[Lease]

I'll be all in if it's down to 80C. Even the property value goes down and its NTA will be down, say, by 30%, then 80C is still less than its adjusted NTA plus attractive dividend yield.

[ralph]

paying 80c for something with an asset value of $1.30, how is that not a bargain. Then there's the 5% divvy as well!
If the asset values are over Inflated property prices Rather than the core business its got to come under pressure & heading to 80 c is very likely

[Lease]

If the asset values are over Inflated property prices Rather than the core business its got to come under pressure & heading to 80 c is very likely

How about its asset value down by 30% to 0.92? I reckon property value down 30% is maximum then 80C is still a good bargain.

[ralph]

How about its asset value down by 30% to 0.92? I reckon property value down 30% is maximum then 80C is still a good bargain.

You could be right at this instance ,then again property prices do go down as well as up in price especially during a recession ,& then again kpg apl rym vhp & the rest all looking like bargains now .
What to do :confused:

[Lease]

You could be right at this instance ,then again property prices do go down as well as up in price especially during a recession ,& then again kpg apl rym vhp & the rest all looking like bargains now .
What to do :confused:

That will be happy troubles:). I have holdings of OCA, RYM and SUM, and will split funds to add more on each of them if all go down substantially.

[Poolboy]

That will be happy troubles:). I have holdings of OCA, RYM and SUM, and will split funds to add more on each of them if all go down substantially.

Me too. By the end of the school holidays I'll have another 10k to spend on OCA. Providing those lazy kids in my class turn up for work.

[Poolboy]

Bloodbath. RYM 845. without rhyme or reason I might buy Ryman instead. Mum says they are all the same and she should know, she's really old. 40 or something.

[Maverick]

Over the last month I've broken down some areas of my expectations of some of the main increased incomes and expenses. Anybody reading through them will most likely be wondering ,”when all these add together what does it all mean?”

In the most simplest form , after all of these considerations,here are last year's underlying EPS and my forecast for the HY that just ended last weekend.

1HY22 3.9c
2HY22 4.15c
1HY23 4.6c
So if I'm correct enough…
Pcp EPs is up 18%, from last HY its up 10% (in only 6 months)
While this growth is not super amazing remember all RVs report stronger second halves (winter vs summer ) so this growth in EPS during a winter HY will be quite an achievement.
Also this improvement in EPS does not include anything of the Helier yet.
Certainly an impressive potential result considering the market currently rates it as to have no growth prospects at all with a PE of 11.4

So while my forcast is not going to be perfect it should be very close. It should prove at last the plan is coming together and finally the snowball( to use Ferg’s term) has started rolling. The drivers that have created this growth are sustainable and the growth will be ongoing . Then the turbo effect of The Helier will be some serious, ongoing cream on top of this.

What the mood of the market (ie SP) will be in mid November when this is reported is anybody's guess. For those of us in it for growing dividends a ~ 15% pay rise will be none too shabby. Mostly though it will be a strong waypoint of the next leg ,as many of the new caresuites start maturing and we enter the apartment phase.

[Habits]

Bloodbath. RYM 845. without rhyme or reason I might buy Ryman instead. Mum says they are all the same and she should know, she's really old. 40 or something.

That old already :(

[winner69]

Over the last month I've broken down some areas of my expectations of some of the main increased incomes and expenses. Anybody reading through them will most likely be wondering ,”when all these add together what does it all mean?”

In the most simplest form , after all of these considerations,here are last year's underlying EPS and my forecast for the HY that just ended last weekend.

1HY22 3.9c
2HY22 4.15c
1HY23 4.6c
So if I'm correct enough…
Pcp EPs is up 18%, from last HY its up 10% (in only 6 months)
While this growth is not super amazing remember all RVs report stronger second halves (winter vs summer ) so this growth in EPS during a winter HY will be quite an achievement.
Also this improvement in EPS does not include anything of the Helier yet.
Certainly an impressive potential result considering the market currently rates it as to have no growth prospects at all with a PE of 11.4

So while my forcast is not going to be perfect it should be very close. It should prove at last the plan is coming together and finally the snowball( to use Ferg’s term) has started rolling. The drivers that have created this growth are sustainable and the growth will be ongoing . Then the turbo effect of The Helier will be some serious, ongoing cream on top of this.

What the mood of the market (ie SP) will be in mid November when this is reported is anybody's guess. For those of us in it for growing dividends a ~ 15% pay rise will be none too shabby. Mostly though it will be a strong waypoint of the next leg ,as many of the new caresuites start maturing and we enter the apartment phase.




EPS Forecast for H123 of 4.9 cents implies underlying earnings of $32.9m

That's 20% higher than last years pcp of $27.5m

That's incredible growth

No wonder the headline in last full year announcement was 'Oceania positioned for growth'

Wonder what the headline in November will be?

[justakiwi]

Mav, you have my admiration and sincere gratitude for not only the time and effort you dedicate to this, but also for your willingness to share with us. Your contributions are invaluable and I appreciate them, and you, immensely. Thank you :)


Over the last month I've broken down some areas of my expectations of some of the main increased incomes and expenses. Anybody reading through them will most likely be wondering ,”when all these add together what does it all mean?”

In the most simplest form , after all of these considerations,here are last year's underlying EPS and my forecast for the HY that just ended last weekend.

1HY22 3.9c
2HY22 4.15c
1HY23 4.6c
So if I'm correct enough…
Pcp EPs is up 18%, from last HY its up 10% (in only 6 months)
While this growth is not super amazing remember all RVs report stronger second halves (winter vs summer ) so this growth in EPS during a winter HY will be quite an achievement.
Also this improvement in EPS does not include anything of the Helier yet.
Certainly an impressive potential result considering the market currently rates it as to have no growth prospects at all with a PE of 11.4

So while my forcast is not going to be perfect it should be very close. It should prove at last the plan is coming together and finally the snowball( to use Ferg’s term) has started rolling. The drivers that have created this growth are sustainable and the growth will be ongoing . Then the turbo effect of The Helier will be some serious, ongoing cream on top of this.

What the mood of the market (ie SP) will be in mid November when this is reported is anybody's guess. For those of us in it for growing dividends a ~ 15% pay rise will be none too shabby. Mostly though it will be a strong waypoint of the next leg ,as many of the new caresuites start maturing and we enter the apartment phase.

[davflaws]

I am ridiculously overweight and a long way underwater. I continue to appreciate your posts.

I am sure this is partly because they give me hope to hold my breath, ignore the distant baying of the hound of doom and hang on, but it is mainly because they are closely reasoned and sufficiently well explained so that I can follow them.

Thank you again.

[Louloubell]

I fully and completely and totally agree with justakiwi.

[Curly]

I fully and completely and totally agree with justakiwi.
Thats a yes from me also, Mav, go you good thing. Well spoken Justakiwi.

[bull....]

that arv update doesnt look good in relation to care profits and sustainable dividends. guess it applies to oca since there in the care business

[bottomfeeder]

When the SP drops sentiment changes to cautious. As I am no longer trading, I am willing to hold for the next two years to see the SP take off when inflation starts to realise the real value of OCA assets.

[Poolboy]

It's not my idea, but Mum said to say that if you boys aren't doing too well in the markets you can come and clean pools for me. I pay $6 an hour and Mum will pick you up and drop you back home at the end of the day.

[kiora]

It's not my idea, but Mum said to say that if you boys aren't doing too well in the markets you can come and clean pools for me. I pay $6 an hour and Mum will pick you up and drop you back home at the end of the day.

Your mum is a smart lady. Sounds like a hand full
:cool:

[BlackPeter]

It's not my idea, but Mum said to say that if you boys aren't doing too well in the markets you can come and clean pools for me. I pay $6 an hour and Mum will pick you up and drop you back home at the end of the day.

What happend to minimum salary? I understand that even the stop and go sign flippers at roadworks get between 25 and 27 dollars per hour with free travel thrown in :) ;

[winner69]

What happend to minimum salary? I understand that even the stop and go sign flippers at roadworks get between 25 and 27 dollars per hour with free travel thrown in :) ;

Oceania can't afford much more than $6/hour for pool boys to keep their numerous pools clean

[Poolboy]

What happend to minimum salary?

They are contractors. Each kid from school gets paid $25 to clean the pool. Takes them all day.

[Habits]

They are contractors. Each kid from school gets paid $25 to clean the pool. Takes them all day.

As they are contractors you dont pay employer acc or 8 percent holiday pay. That works. Come to think of it when I was that age and did an after school job it was a similar setup. Now I feel cheated.

[bull....]

fresh lows today :scared:
following the sector down on so many macro factor headwinds against this sector at the moment
my modelling suggests re-sales might be a issue sometime next yr for the sector

[Poolboy]

Ukraine (dirty Russia) and Liz Truss aren't going way. So things will get cheaper. My mum says to wait a bit longer and see what happens to the prices. I have six pools clean this school holidays so lots of cash to spend :)

[SailorRob]

OCA hit 83 cents on the first day of trading.

[ronaldson]

I think resales are already an issue, judging by the unprecedented number of brochures and advertisements in my letterbox/the NZ Herald and local community paper, and the regular open days around and about. People are reluctant to sell their existing home under current market conditions, so I suspect numbers entering villages via resales have slowed and given the volume of new builds in the sector.

On the other hand, we are reaching peak demographic momentum. I am an early post-war baby boomer (born 1947) so 75, and I have started looking at the opportunities in Auckland and in several of the provinces too. Not at all ready to act, but it's good to know how it is. My generation is increasingly reaching a critical age, and we were granted a good life and mostly became homeowners, which seems to be the necessary prerequisite to consider this retirement option.

[bull....]

OCA hit 83 cents on the first day of trading.

issued at 80c ipo ?

anyway on your long term compounding i believe oca was a good investment untill last yr. that is last yr your returns per yr were roughly 13% per year ( includes capital gain + div ) so yes it was a good investment.
however now with the price at 88c that return is roughly 4% per yr which is not that good
so i guess if price stays where it is for a number of yrs it be very bad long term investment or if it falls more :scared: however if it went back to 1.50 quickly say it again could turn into a good investment.
point being nobody know's how good an investment will turn out until time comes to sell

[SailorRob]

issued at 80c ipo ?

anyway on your long term compounding i believe oca was a good investment untill last yr. that is last yr your returns per yr were roughly 13% per year ( includes capital gain + div ) so yes it was a good investment.
however now with the price at 88c that return is roughly 4% per yr which is not that good
so i guess if price stays where it is for a number of yrs it be very bad long term investment or if it falls more :scared: however if it went back to 1.50 quickly say it again could turn into a good investment.
point being nobody know's how good an investment will turn out until time comes to sell


If you are talking about if you had purchased on IPO yes. But for a buyer here the question is moving forward.

Exactly the opposite to what you wrote which I marked red is in fact true - as I described in August (below in blue), the longer the price stays low will make for the better long term investment provided the business does ok. Even if it takes until 2040 to reach $2 it will destroy just about every pro investor in the world.

After joking with a mate that at this rate OCA would take until 2040 to reach $2, I decided to take a look at what this scenario could look like as an investment.

I was stunned to find that it would be a very decent investment and in all likelihood beat the returns you would get from putting your money with 95% of professional investors over the same 18 year time period. If the shares go to $2 now it will destroy your returns.

From here to $2 in 18 years, the share price would produce a compounded 4.1% return. If dividends kept in lockstep (so the yield remained the same and the dividend also grew at 4.1%) and you paid 25% tax on the dividend and then reinvested into the company at the prevailing share price you would compound your investment at 7.92%.

Now if the share price stayed at 97c for the first 10 years and then grew steadily to $2 by the 18th year, you'd compound at 8.75%, but if the share price stayed at 97c for 17 years before jumping to $2, then you'd compound at a phenomenal 9.5%. This would turn a million into 5.5 million. At the original 7.92% it would be 4.41 million.

Obviously the share price staying static while dividends grow is unlikely, but this shows the effect of having a share price go nowhere. The longer it stays lower the better and you can of course commit external capital.

Given the choice 999 of 1000 investors would want and pray for only $3.46 million and reject the $5.5 million, throwing away 2 million dollars as they prey for the share price to go up NOW which would mean only getting a compound 6.92% return.

[Poolboy]

Ah, I remember back in the good old days, probably half a lifetime ago, it was worth $1.60. Bring back the good old days I say.

Mum says STFU and wants it to be 76 cents again so I can buy more.

[BlackPeter]

Ah, I remember back in the good old days, probably half a lifetime ago, it was worth $1.60. Bring back the good old days I say.

If you would be that young, that 13 months would be half your lifetime, than you couldn't write and nobody would pay you for cleaning pools :p

[bottomfeeder]

I think resales are already an issue, judging by the unprecedented number of brochures and advertisements in my letterbox/the NZ Herald and local community paper, and the regular open days around and about. People are reluctant to sell their existing home under current market conditions, so I suspect numbers entering villages via resales have slowed and given the volume of new builds in the sector.

On the other hand, we are reaching peak demographic momentum. I am an early post-war baby boomer (born 1947) so 75, and I have started looking at the opportunities in Auckland and in several of the provinces too. Not at all ready to act, but it's good to know how it is. My generation is increasingly reaching a critical age, and we were granted a good life and mostly became homeowners, which seems to be the necessary prerequisite to consider this retirement option.

I understand that many retirees would like to sell their homes at top dollar and buy a retirement unit at a reduced price. Not going to happen. But there will be those that will want to hold on as long as possible until their house price recovers. However regret to say and as I said to my mother in law, you are not getting any better. Your health and mobility will deteriorate. Get your unit now, before the option is not available to you and you have a drop in health, which precludes you from a unit and sends you direct to an internal "room" only.

Unfortunately older people have no choice and need to make their decision to move into a retirement home sooner rather than later. Again people of this age are not in control of their situation for any particular long period of time. Their window of opportunity is short.

[Habits]

I think resales are already an issue, judging by the unprecedented number of brochures and advertisements in my letterbox/the NZ Herald and local community paper, and the regular open days around and about. People are reluctant to sell their existing home under current market conditions, so I suspect numbers entering villages via resales have slowed and given the volume of new builds in the sector.

On the other hand, we are reaching peak demographic momentum. I am an early post-war baby boomer (born 1947) so 75, and I have started looking at the opportunities in Auckland and in several of the provinces too. Not at all ready to act, but it's good to know how it is. My generation is increasingly reaching a critical age, and we were granted a good life and mostly became homeowners, which seems to be the necessary prerequisite to consider this retirement option.

There are boomers in their mid 50s too. The generation has a long tail. It's a pity the RV companies like to portray their ILU occupants as full of life and they will live forever in an ILU when that's not the reality or aim.
On the advertising, yes I have noticed a lot of it. There are listings on trademe as well

[Poolboy]

If you would be that young, that 13 months would be half your lifetime, than you couldn't write and nobody would pay you for cleaning pools :p

I may be 8 but I'm as smart as a 10 year old.

Miss Smith from room 3 told me that.

[justakiwi]

Can I respectfully ask that we cut the crap in this thread and get back to discussing OCA. I enjoy a bit of light hearted humour as much as anybody, but this is getting tired.


I may be 8 but I'm as smart as a 10 year old.

Miss Smith from room 3 told me that.

[Poolboy]

As I mentioned earlier we are flogging a dead horse. I doesn't matter how many units are available or OCA's rate of return, it's the other factors that dictate what the value of the shares are.

[BlackPeter]

As I mentioned earlier we are flogging a dead horse. I doesn't matter how many units are available or OCA's rate of return, it's the other factors that dictate what the value of the shares are.

Do you mean the value of the shares, or do you mean the share price? Big difference.

While nobody can predict the future ... I am reasonable confident that we will see the price chasing the (in my view) higher value soon. House prices will bottom out in 2023 and the grey tsunami only started to come in. Give it another year or two and even the market might wake up.

[SailorRob]

As I mentioned earlier we are flogging a dead horse. I doesn't matter how many units are available or OCA's rate of return, it's the other factors that dictate what the value of the shares are.


The other factors dictate what the PRICE of the shares are.

They are two different things and this is the essence of investing.

[Habits]

Do you mean the value of the shares, or do you mean the share price? Big difference.

While nobody can predict the future ... I am reasonable confident that we will see the price chasing the (in my view) higher value soon. House prices will bottom out in 2023 and the grey tsunami only started to come in. Give it another year or two and even the market might wake up.

The share price.

Wait a year or two ... on the sidelines

[Poolboy]

Do you mean the value of the shares, or do you mean the share price? Big difference.


Surely you are not that stupid you can't figure that out via the context?

[BlackPeter]

The share price.

Wait a year or two ... on the sidelines

I guess where to wait is a personal preference. Personally I prefer in times of high inflation to be invested in good solid companies (and OCA is one of them) rather than in fiat money guarded by reserve banks with a huge conflict of interest ...

Sure - investing cash at the absolute bottom (and before the money goes bust) is always best ... only thing is - recognizing this bottom in real time is impossible and hitting it is sheer luck, and good luck based investment strategies are not sustainable.

[SailorRob]

I guess where to wait is a personal preference. Personally I prefer in times of high inflation to be invested in good solid companies (and OCA is one of them) rather than in fiat money guarded by reserve banks with a huge conflict of interest ...

Sure - investing cash at the absolute bottom (and before the money goes bust) is always best ... only thing is - recognizing this bottom in real time is impossible and hitting it is sheer luck, and good luck based investment strategies are not sustainable.


Incredible post BlackPeter.

I strongly agree.

Guarded by reserve bank academics focused on Kauri trees and 'Climate change' with a political master who's former leader of World communist youth and don't get me started on our finance minister.

Bu far the best inflation protection is owning the means of production through good solid businesses.

[nztx]

Incredible post BlackPeter.

Guarded by reserve bank academics focused on Kauri trees and 'Climate change' with a political master who's former leader of World communist youth and don't get me started on our finance minister.

Bu far the best inflation protection is owning the means of production through good solid businesses.


Thanks for confirming my impressions on regarding many of the NZX listed outfits with a long barge pole

In times of recessionary utterings coming from far and wide, the ultimate insurance appears to be elsewhere among the very profitable spheres which the bunch of blind spinning twits locally here are trying to cover their desperate behinds over on why their ramblings wont work now, tomorrow or any time soon on muted mostly poorly thought out shallow backwards policies :)

OCA may warrant a future look back in, but IMO not in the current economic times, or under the current political
reign of gross stupidity, which could easily be washed out tomorrow or next week :)

[SailorRob]

Thanks for confirming my impressions on regarding many of the NZX listed outfits with a long barge pole

In times of recessionary utterings coming from far and wide, the ultimate insurance appears to be elsewhere among the very profitable spheres which the bunch of blind spinning twits locally here are trying to cover their desperate behinds over on why their ramblings wont work now, tomorrow or any time soon on muted mostly poorly thought out shallow backwards policies :)

OCA may warrant a future look back in, but IMO not in the current economic times, or under the current political
reign of gross stupidity, which could easily be washed out tomorrow or next week :)


Agreed, it's extremely tough stomaching owning anything at all in this country at present.

Fortunately I came to this conclusion early enough to get my capital out. OCA is all I have and kind of a hedge where I have at least something where I am going to be living for the next 18 Months.

[justakiwi]

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/health/sector-crisis-dementia-care-unit-closure-%E2%80%98distressing%E2%80%99?fbclid=IwAR0GXYwT3Rc WCi9cKtioTO9FtyDA2Tj1OHNoWH2oB5h2y26TSmcXBxSLv1c

This is precisely why it is vital that providers in this sector continue to provide standard care, hospital level care, and dementia care. The only providers who can afford to provide this long term, are the big players. Small private or NFP organisations will not be able to continue providing it long term. They simply don't have the money. OCA is in a prime position to take advantage of this dire need. Yes, there is currently a serious shortage of RNs, but OCA's training initiative puts them at an advantage I believe.

I can't emphasise enough how huge the need for care (of one kind or another) is right now, and how much this need is going to explode in the future. Continuity of care within the same facility is also going to be vitally important. Right now, our rest home has a resident who recently came out of hospital and has not "picked up" as well as we had hoped. He is already needing a level of care we can't provide long term, so unless he improves, he will be reassessed and moved to somewhere that has hospital level care. This lovely man has a relationship with a woman in our home. They adore each other and are engaged. They are planning a commitment ceremony sometime in the future. If he has to move, they will be separated, and it will destroy both of them. It breaks my heart when we have to send people away from their home because they need a higher level of care. It is gut wrenching. Nine times out of ten, those people die within a short period of time, after leaving. Sometimes it is health related, but I am 100% sure that sometimes it is an emotional reaction to being torn away from "home" and their rest home "family." I have no way to prove that of course, but as the people who have cared for them and loved them, often for many years, we just "know."

I don't care what a certain dog thinks about care. He is wrong and he has no understanding of aged care. I also don't care, as an OCA shareholder, if OCA never makes any money from their care branch. As long as they don't make a loss, I am fine with care being subsidised by the rest of the business. In the long run, providing all levels of care on one site wherever possible, will be a huge advantage for OCA. People do not want to leave their home base, and families don't want them to either. Our elderly folk deserve this and it is up to providers to recognise that and meet that need. If the big players don't do it, nobody will. If National gets in next year, they will have to address this, and ensure funding is increased so providers can achieve this.

We cannot and must not abandon our elderly people.

[Grimy]

Thanks for that JAK. Dying of a broken heart is certainly a reality, have seen it with people I know.

[Poolboy]

Someone I know worked for Oceania and he said they were very kindly genuine people.

[Rawz]

I miss the certain dog and his posts.

Anyways, good post JAK and don’t think anyone will disagree. Jacinda and co should stop attacking the backbone of our economy (farmers) and start addressing the labor and funding shortages in your industry.

[Gunner]

Buy above the 200 day moving average

[SailorRob]

Buy above the 200 day moving average


Yeah like in the Summer of 2020.

Should be able to just build a program that 'buys above the 200 day moving average' and then sit back and get another program to count all the money.

[Gunner]

A couple of simple rules will save you where there is a potentially long and slow bear market like now.

A short sharp crash like covid requires a different set of rules.

[bull....]

As I mentioned earlier we are flogging a dead horse. I doesn't matter how many units are available or OCA's rate of return, it's the other factors that dictate what the value of the shares are.

spot on , even compounding a handicapped horse doesnt work if it doesnt pay dividends

[winner69]

Yeah like in the Summer of 2020.

Should be able to just build a program that 'buys above the 200 day moving average' and then sit back and get another program to count all the money.

Amended that for you

that 'buys above the 200 day moving average' and then sit back and get another program to work out what you've lost

but forgive me if your comment was in some way cryptic and clever and I didn't get it

[Gunner]

Amended that for you

that 'buys above the 200 day moving average' and then sit back and get another program to work out what you've lost

but forgive me if your comment was in some way cryptic and clever and I didn't get it

Why would you lose money buying above the 200 day ma?

[BlackPeter]

Yeah like in the Summer of 2020.

Should be able to just build a program that 'buys above the 200 day moving average' and then sit back and get another program to count all the money.

Off topic. However - these programs do exist (often looking at a bunch of other indicators as well) ... and they are moderately successful during bull runs (but not more than any decent investor) and pretty pathetic during downturns. There is no silver bullet, otherwise everybody would use them ;p :

[BlackPeter]

Why would you lose money buying above the 200 day ma?

Buy high sell low?

[Gunner]

Buy high sell low?

It has crossed only once since 2020. Selling at the 200 ma would have saved over 60% from last October.

[winner69]

It has crossed only once since 2020. Selling at the 200 ma would have saved over 60% from last October.

....so not good buying over the 200ma

[bull....]

latest covid / retirement stock comparison ... stocks turn down roughly same time as new trend in covid cases start

14245

https://twitter.com/phydyn/status/1580380128143896576/photo/1

14246

and all this coincides with the announcement by the govt of full border opening from 1/9/2022
Also michael baker today saying his modelling suggests hundreds more may die in the wave just underway
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-another-wave-risks-hundreds-more-deaths-this-year-michael-baker/2NONUIJWK7QN4LCGNIJHTYKFKA/

which by my analysis add's more to my model of demand matching supply much quicker due to covid and retirement unit build rate
https://ibb.co/KsynjSN

[Gunner]

....so not good buying over the 200ma

I'd buy above the 200ma

[SailorRob]

I'd buy above the 200ma


May I suggest you just form some estimate of the intrinsic value and buy if there is some kind of discount to this and then sit on your backside.

[Poolboy]

Today - yikes.

[winner69]

Wow - Oceania industry leaders - even Ryman following their business model.

Included in an article headed Ryman to cut care beds in new villages by up to two-thirds'
this snippet

Ryman told investors it is also looking at introducing new care suites – in that, it appears to be taking a leaf out of the business-model book of another listed operator, Oceania Healthcare, which has been developing standard care beds into suites with more amenities and services that the resident pays for and above the requirements to attract government funding.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/policy/ryman-to-cut-care-beds-in-new-villages-by-up-to-two-thirds-1
prob paywalled

[justakiwi]

It was only a matter of time before they caught on. OCA has been the "industry leader" for some time, but very few people have recognised it.


Wow - Oceania industry leaders - even Ryman following their business model.

Included in an article headed Ryman to cut care beds in new villages by up to two-thirds'
this snippet

Ryman told investors it is also looking at introducing new care suites – in that, it appears to be taking a leaf out of the business-model book of another listed operator, Oceania Healthcare, which has been developing standard care beds into suites with more amenities and services that the resident pays for and above the requirements to attract government funding.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/policy/ryman-to-cut-care-beds-in-new-villages-by-up-to-two-thirds-1
prob paywalled

[Poolboy]

Wow, shows how little we know. Share price about half what it was a year or two ago. No point in analysing the details when it's the bigger picture that needs to be looked at.

Shame on all you people who voted Labour in.

[Bjauck]

Wow, shows how little we know. Share price about half what it was a year or two ago. No point in analysing the details when it's the bigger picture that needs to be looked at.

Shame on all you people who voted Labour in. I wonder how many Sharetrader browsers and OCA residents wouldn’t be here if Ardern and Labour had not been In office during the first year or so of Covid.

Luckily that cannot be answered.

[Poolboy]

Oh yes, our Glorious Leader has saved us.

[Baa_Baa]

Wow - Oceania industry leaders - even Ryman following their business model.

Included in an article headed Ryman to cut care beds in new villages by up to two-thirds'
this snippet

Ryman told investors it is also looking at introducing new care suites – in that, it appears to be taking a leaf out of the business-model book of another listed operator, Oceania Healthcare, which has been developing standard care beds into suites with more amenities and services that the resident pays for and above the requirements to attract government funding.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/policy/ryman-to-cut-care-beds-in-new-villages-by-up-to-two-thirds-1
prob paywalled

Thanks winner, this is very interesting, that Ryman are getting on board with the OCA strategy implemented 3 years ago, for similar reasons of underfunded govt care.

Some people might have struggled with the definition of 'care bed' versus 'care suite' and the business model and financials around that, but hopefully this clarifies that and vindicates OCA's early mover initiative to reorient their business model, before the other RV's get on board.

OCA are even moving on from that now (the inflection point) to exceptional quality high end apartments and acquisition of brown fields properties. As JAK says, OCA are an industry leader but relatively few seem to have realised this.

I suggest everyone goes back and reads Maverick and Fergs insightful posts for a glimpse of the not too distant future. They get it, are deeply researched, model it and graciously share it. Looking to the future rather than the rear view mirror.

[ronaldson]

The " bigger picture " across the ditch, as reported today in The Australian, is headlined " Emergency Funding needed as aged-care sector at risk of collapse ". It states 2 in 3 nursing homes operated at a loss in 21/22, with residential aged-care homes losing $15 per bed per day.

The solution postulated is that essentially reform is needed so that those who can pay more for the accommodation component and for the costs of everyday living that those outside aged care homes would be required to pay, such as food, utilities, cleaning and laundry, need to do so.

The cost of aged care spending in the budget needs to rise from $29.8b in 2022/23 to $52.5b in 2032/33. That is a staggering increase, but the report notes baby boomers are marching inexorably into old age.

There is going to be a test of political will, both here and in Australia. I have no confidence that Andrew Little "gets it" with regard to the contribution made by the listed retirement village sector. The writing is clearly on the wall given the Ryman decision noted above. But the OCA care suite model is a prescient example of how it will need to be.

[Rawz]

There needs to be like a boomer tax or something to help pay for all this. There’s nothing in the coffers! Maybe when you are 50+ you pay 40% tax rate until 65.

Otherwise a country saddled with debt will be passed onto the next generation

[Bjauck]

There needs to be like a boomer tax or something to help pay for all this. There’s nothing in the coffers! Maybe when you are 50+ you pay 40% tax rate until 65.

Otherwise a country saddled with debt will be passed onto the next generation Care subsidies are means tested. There are residents who must privately fund the maximum contribution rate.

Good luck getting the voting population to support tax reform in NZ. Even Labour had to shelve its tax reform to a National-lite tax policy to remain electable.

[850man]

Care subsidies are means tested. There are residents who must privately fund the maximum contribution rate.

Good luck getting the voting population to support tax reform in NZ. Even Labour had to shelve its tax reform to a National-lite tax policy to remain electable.

No need for more tax, just less wastage of tax money on sh*t and there will be plenty to go around

[justakiwi]

I would be very interested to know how many government care subsidies OCA (and the others) actually receive, as a percentage of their total care provision. I seriously doubt the majority of their "care" residents are receiving the subsidy. To qualify for it one must have less than $230,000 in cash assets (that figure may have changed but that's what it was when Mum went into care). Which would rule out anyone selling a house to move into care, in almost every location in NZ. Those residents must fund their own care until such time as their assets drop below that figure. They can then apply for a government subsidy.

For anyone with significant wealth, it will take many years to reduce their assets to that qualifying level (if ever, depending on their age at entry). For those who have no cash assets other than the house they sold, they may get to that level, depending on the value of their house.

Standard care beds are for people with no house to sell and no assets. Nobody else would choose that option, they would go with a care suite. So, every standard bed will be receiving the government subsidy, and probably nothing else, unless family can pay for small "add ons." As we have seen, standard care beds are reducing in number and care suites are increasing.

The point I'm making is, the total number of fully subsidised residents across any facility, will be low, compared to the rest of their care (and apartment/villa) operations. So while they may not be making much money from these, I believe they can afford to provide that service. The smaller not for profits or privately owned facilities, can not, as they have no other source of revenue - just standard care/hospital level or dementia beds (no care suites, villas, apartments). Their primary source of income is the government subsidy. It is entirely different for the big players.

It may well be that the government of the day will need to significantly increase the care subsidy, to ensure that providers will continue to provide a minimum number of standard beds. Because those residents can never pay for a care suite, and someone has to provide them with care. I have no idea what National's policy on this is, as I have been unable to find any reference to it anywhere on their website or in their policy documents. I suspect they will be no different from Labour and will be reluctant to play ball. Social conscience is not their forte.

As far as the increased tax suggestion goes ... dream on. How the hell do you think the average Kiwi over 50 could possibly afford to pay a 40% tax rate??? It's a ridiculous suggestion.

Time will tell how this all pans out, but regardless, OCA will survive and do very well as the new "industry leader."

​P.S I have mentioned politics but as BP has said, let's keep the political attacks out of it.


Care subsidies are means tested. There are residents who must privately fund the maximum contribution rate.

Good luck getting the voting population to support tax reform in NZ. Even Labour had to shelve its tax reform to a National-lite tax policy to remain electable.

[BlackPeter]

Wow, shows how little we know. Share price about half what it was a year or two ago. No point in analysing the details when it's the bigger picture that needs to be looked at.

Shame on all you people who voted Labour in.

Lets try and avoid turning this into just another political thread, shall we? And never forget the choice voters had at the last election. Picking the smaller evil is not a good choice, but clearly the majority saw it as the best available choice last election, and while I didn't vote Labour, I can understand the rational of those who did.

[777]

Here is the current maximums that have to be paid towards care.

https://gazette.govt.nz/notice/id/2022-go3691

From 1 July 2021, asset thresholds for Residential Care Subsidy are as follows:

$239,930 for a single or widowed person in care
$239,930 for a couple with both partners in care
$131,391 for a couple with one partner in care (house and car remain exempt). Couples can choose to be tested under the $239,930 threshold, but the house and car will not be exempt.
Asset thresholds increase on July 1st every year.

[Snoopy]

I would be very interested to know how many government care subsidies OCA (and the others) actually receive, as a percentage of their total care provision. I seriously doubt the majority of their "care" residents are receiving the subsidy. To qualify for it one must have less than $230,000 in cash assets (that figure may have changed but that's what it was when Mum went into care). Which would rule out anyone selling a house to move into care, in almost every location in NZ. Those residents must fund their own care until such time as their assets drop below that figure. They can then apply for a government subsidy.


I found the above paragraph difficult to understand. But after reading it several times I think what you are saying is that almost everyone will have to sell their house to get into care, -which is the opposite of what you wrote- (because there aren't many houses around valued at less than $230k). That means almost every former home owner will have a balance significantly higher than $230k (the minimum cut off asset value balance before a subsidy kicks in), before they move into care, and that 'excess cash balance' in excess of $250k must be used up before any subsidy is granted.



For anyone with significant wealth, it will take many years to reduce their assets to that qualifying level (if ever, depending on their age at entry). For those who have no cash assets other than the house they sold, they may get to that level, depending on the value of their house.


If I may make a couple of observations about the assumptions you are making.

1/ You are assuming that those who own their house own it 'mortgage free'. The way house prices are these days, there are people reaching retirement still with a mortgage. And there are those who have paid off their mortgage but have taken out a reverse mortgage. So just because a retiree has a house worth $x, that doesn't mean they will get $x in their bank account when they sell it.

2/ You are assuming that homeowners move directly into care. But it is much more common now for people to take the intermediate step of moving into an independent living unit based in a retirement village first. They may be in that place for ten or even twenty years in some instances. Thus the market price they received for their house in 2012 - remember most ILUs do not give residents any capital gain on that unit during their occupation- , must fund their care unit costs in 2022. So for most people in care suites their 'house gains' are undermined by several years of capital erosion from house price inflation.



The point I'm making is, the total number of fully subsidised residents across any facility, will be low, compared to the rest of their care (and apartment/villa) operations. So while they may not be making much money from these, I believe they can afford to provide that service. The smaller not for profits or privately owned facilities, can not, as they have no other source of revenue - just standard care/hospital level or dementia beds (no care suites, villas, apartments). Their primary source of income is the government subsidy. It is entirely different for the big players.


I hear your call on how difficult it is to make the funding model work for smaller privately owned facilities. But the big guys are facing issues with their care facilities too.

You are right in pointing out that care residents are but a small portion of total retirement village occupants, and that ILU people can be used to subsidise those needing higher levels of care. But what you don't mention is that the ILU people and the people in care are usually actually the same people, but time shifted. So really it is the ILU people who are subsidising themselves. There is no 'extra bucket of money' from an external source to subsidise the care suites.

I had a talk with the manager of what I would call a 'well to do' retirement village a few years ago on just this subject. The problem with the 'self funding care suite model' is that most occupants are in these units for a relatively short time. So even if you start with a full complement of 'self funded care suite occupants' you can't be sure that when some of these residents are 'promoted upstairs', so to speak, that there will be a steady stream of replacement self funded retirees to replace them. Thus you can hope for self funded retirees. But you have to plan for them not to be self funded, or the business model doesn't work.



As far as the increased tax suggestion goes ... dream on. How the hell do you think the average Kiwi over 50 could possibly afford to pay a 40% tax rate??? It's a ridiculous suggestion.


They are probably already doing it. If the average tax on all your wages works out at 25%, add 15% GST and you get to 40%.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

bupa called off sale talks according to the australian

no one wants to buy these assets

[justakiwi]

Now I'm confused ;)

I think the confusion lies with the fact that there are different levels of "care" so we have to ensure we know which level we are talking about. My fist paragraph was related to standard care beds. A basic room with no frills, for people who have been assessed as needing assistance with daily activities of life. I assume that these beds are deemed as "hospital level" beds, but I am not 100% sure about that (hospital level just means the person requires additional medical/health related care, assistance with mobility, and sometimes two carers to shower/mobilise/assist with toileting etc).

What I meant was this:

1. How many residents within OCA for example, qualify for the government subsidy? My guess would be that it is the minority.
2. People in those standard beds, will be most likely be people like me. Who own no property, have no significant cash assets, but who require residential care. The government subsidy covers the full cost of those beds - they are no frills care rooms.
3. To qualify for the government subsidy one must be assessed as being in need of residential care. As I said, you must have less than the $230,000 to qualify. There is no partial subsidy. You either get it all or none, so if your cash assets are higher than the cut-off, you get no subsidy until you've reduced your cash assets to that figure. You can then apply for the subsidy.
4. If you don't qualify for the subsidy you pay the full cost of your care - whether it be a standard care bed or a care suite.
5. I assume if one qualifies for the subsidy that could be applied to the weekly costs of a care suite, with your family paying the difference if they are able/choose to. But again, I am not sure about that. People like me will never be in a care suite because we simply can't afford it.
6. You have to remember that a significant number of people who require residential care have never owned a house. So they have no cash assets from a house sale.



I found the above paragraph difficult to understand. But after reading it several times I think what you are saying is that almost everyone will have to sell their house to get into care, -which is the opposite of what you wrote- (because there aren't many houses around valued at less than $230k). That means almost every former home owner will have a balance significantly higher than $230k (the minimum cut off asset value balance before a subsidy kicks in), before they move into care, and that 'excess cash balance' in excess of $250k must be used up before any subsidy is granted.

No, I wasn't making that assumption. When I said "people with significant wealth" I wasn't just referring to their house. I meant people with significant wealth, outside of their home. If you have a million dollar portfolio, or investment property, or a priceless collection of classic cars, those things are classed as cash assets. So even if you have a mortgage which means your house returns less "cash" when sold, you are still going to be way over the threshold for the government subsidy.

With regards to your second point below - that is a valid comment. But depending on location, I doubt many in that category would come in under the cut-off point. They might if they are a couple.


If I may make a couple of observations about the assumptions you are making.

1/ You are assuming that those who own their house own it 'mortgage free'. The way house prices are these days, there are people reaching retirement still with a mortgage. And there are those who have paid off their mortgage but have taken out a reverse mortgage. So just because a retiree has a house worth $x, that doesn't mean they will get $x in their bank account when they sell it.

2/ You are assuming that homeowners move directly into care. But it is much more common now for people to take the intermediate step of moving into an independent living unit based in a retirement village first. They may be in that place for ten or even twenty years in some instances. Thus the market price they received for their house in 2012 - remember most ILUs do not give residents any capital gain on that unit during their occupation- , must fund their care unit costs in 2022. So for most people in care suites their 'house gains' are undermined by several years of capital erosion from house price inflation.


For every person who moves up the chain from ILU to a care suite - there is someone waiting to move into their unit. So yes, I guess you could argue that they are subsiding themselves, but that's just semantics. Having said that, those people are unlikely to be moving to a care bed. They will go to a care suite. The other thing to remember is that some providers provide a care suite that is for life. If you move into one, you can stay there until you die, and receive a higher level of care without moving, or being separated from your spouse. Those suites are set up for this purpose and in my view, are the absolute ideal solution to care - but again, only affordable by some.


You are right in pointing out that care residents are but a small portion of total retirement village occupants, and that ILU people can be used to subsidise those needing higher levels of care. But what you don't mention is that the ILU people and the people in care are usually actually the same people, but time shifted. So really it is the ILU people who are subsidising themselves. There is no 'extra bucket of money' from an external source to subsidise the care suites. I had a talk with the manager of what I would call a 'well to do' retirement village a few years ago on just this subject. The problem with the 'self funding care suite model' is that most occupants are in these units for a relatively short time. So even if you start with a full complement of 'self funded care suite occupants' you can't be sure that when some of these residents are 'promoted upstairs', so to speak, that there will be a steady stream of replacement self funded retirees to replace them. Thus you can hope for self funded retirees. But you have to plan for them not to be self funded, or the business model doesn't work.



Yes, but the suggestion made had nothing to do with removing GST - and many of us are earning incomes low enough to be currently paying 17.5%. I sure as hell couldn't afford to pay any more. And yes, I realise I'm the exception to the rule here.


They are probably already doing it. If the average tax on all your wages works out at 25%, add 15% GST and you get to 40%.


EDIT: I accept that my assumptions may be wrong/off base, in which case I hope Mav or Ferg will set me straight.

[Bjauck]

...


They are probably already doing it. If the average tax on all your wages works out at 25%, add 15% GST and you get to 40%.

SNOOPY In an era of higher interest rates, it is unlikely that even NZ will see the same level of house price increases in the next 10 years, that we saw in the previous ten years.

Certainly those that rely solely on taxable income, will be experiencing tax of 40% plus. Those who also have untaxed capital gains as well could have tax levels on their economic income significantly less that. If you factor in the sale of the family home, then the untaxed capital gains from that would push the tax rate on economic income even lower.

[justakiwi]

I just found this on the OCA website. Which seems to confirm my comments above re care suites for life.

These unique suites offer exceptional Rest Home and Hospital care, evolving as your needs increase so you don’t have to move again

[Poolboy]

OCA and RYM going down and (generally) everything else here and afar going up :(

[Bjauck]

Here is the current maximums that have to be paid towards care.

https://gazette.govt.nz/notice/id/2022-go3691

From 1 July 2021, asset thresholds for Residential Care Subsidy are as follows:

$239,930 for a single or widowed person in care
$239,930 for a couple with both partners in care
$131,391 for a couple with one partner in care (house and car remain exempt). Couples can choose to be tested under the $239,930 threshold, but the house and car will not be exempt.
Asset thresholds increase on July 1st every year. It is quite ridiculous to have only a $108k approx. addition in the asset test for those in a couple who don’t own a house. With houses these days often worth well in excess of $1m, does this further encourage retired couples to remain in large expensive dwellings as a store of wealth? All part of the inbuilt NZ fiscal efficiency (bias) of building up wealth, for those that can afford it, in residential property I guess.

[bottomfeeder]

News tonight says new house inflation is running at 17%.. It is only a matter of time that existing house prices start to increase to reflect the values of houses..

[BlackPeter]

News tonight says new house inflation is running at 17%.. It is only a matter of time that existing house prices start to increase to reflect the values of houses..

Exactly! No need to worry about dropping house prices when their is rampant inflation in the construction industry.

[alokdhir]

Exactly! No need to worry about dropping house prices when their is rampant inflation in the construction industry.

House prices have two components ...Land Value and Improvement Value ...So if construction costs are adding to improvement value part then Land values can still be going down to compensate for overall affordability issues due to higher rates ?

[850man]

House prices have two components ...Land Value and Improvement Value ...So if construction costs are adding to improvement value part then Land values can still be going down to compensate for overall affordability issues due to higher rates ?
Are land values really going down? It's the one thing they are not making a lot more of.

[winner69]

deleted --- keeping politics out of it

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Are land values really going down? It's the one thing they are not making a lot more of.

Yes. The cost of money trumps all.

[Balance]

Exactly! No need to worry about dropping house prices when their is rampant inflation in the construction industry.

Incorrect assumption - biggest impact on property prices is the exorbitant price of land which is falling.

Friend just bought a 500 m2 piece of dirt in Auckland Manukau district for $700k which has a CV of $940k (July 2021) and which had a price tag of $1m beginning of the year.

And there are developers and land bankers desperately trying to get rid of land and sections all around the place.

The number of advertisements of mortgagee sale grow month by month.

[Balance]

Are land values really going down? It's the one thing they are not making a lot more of.

Friend just bought a 500 m2 piece of dirt in Auckland Manukau district for $700k which has a CV of $940k (July 2021) and which had a price tag of $1m beginning of the year.

And there's plenty more sections being released in that area!

[Entrep]

Friend just bought a 500 m2 piece of dirt in Auckland Manukau district for $700k which has a CV of $940k (July 2021) and which had a price tag of $1m beginning of the year.

And there's plenty more sections being released in that area!

When does the bleed stop in your opinion? When rates reverse direction?

[Balance]

When does the bleed stop in your opinion? When rates reverse direction?

Historically the property cycle revolves around 5 years up and 5 years down.

We are but in the first year of the down cycle!

I pick another 2 years of pain.

[BlackPeter]

Incorrect assumption - biggest impact on property prices is the exorbitant price of land which is falling.

Friend just bought a 500 m2 piece of dirt in Auckland Manukau district for $700k which has a CV of $940k (July 2021) and which had a price tag of $1m beginning of the year.

And there are developers and land bankers desperately trying to get rid of land and sections all around the place.

The number of advertisements of mortgagee sale grow month by month.

If you want to make a point you can always find one example to support it. Does not mean, that your point is right.

Say -
Improvements are in average 60% of the total GV (I don't know, but it seems a sensible number and reflects the situation in our area)

Average property: $1m, 400k land and 600k improvements;

The price of improvements currently inflating with 17% p.a.
600k -> 702k


Price of land (nationally) dropping by 10% p.a.
400k -> 360k

702k + 360k = 1062k; Oops.

Results still in an overall price increase at the end of the year, doesn't it?

But sure - we first need to see the hype premium disappear, but then building costs will drive up property value.

On top of that - while you can inflate the price of improvements every year by 17% or more (and this will significantly pump up the total value - exponential growth), you can't really deflate the price of land every year by 10% - otherwise land is quickly worthless and anyway, the price change would soon not be material anymore to the overall price of the property (logarithmic decline).

So - sure, while you always will be able to find some outrageous example, where hype pushed the price for the location into the stratosphere (and hype deflation crashed it down afterwards) - the price for run of the mill sections never was that high, and it won't drop that much either. You still need to buy a section to build a house - remember? Price is a function of supply and demand.

[Balance]

BP - you need to come to Auckland and look at the absurd prices that were being paid for slivers of land around the city.

Try 60% land, 30% construction costs & 10% council charges etc.

[winner69]

If you want to make a point you can always find one example to support it. Does not mean, that your point is right.

Say -
Improvements are in average 60% of the total GV (I don't know, but it seems a sensible number and reflects the situation in our area)

Average property: $1m, 400k land and 600k improvements;

The price of improvements currently inflating with 17% p.a.
600k -> 702k


Price of land (nationally) dropping by 10% p.a.
400k -> 360k

702k + 360k = 1062k; Oops.

Results still in an overall price increase at the end of the year, doesn't it?

But sure - we first need to see the hype premium disappear, but then building costs will drive up property value.

On top of that - while you can inflate the price of improvements every year by 17% or more (and this will significantly pump up the total value - exponential growth), you can't really deflate the price of land every year by 10% - otherwise land is quickly worthless and anyway, the price change would soon not be material anymore to the overall price of the property (logarithmic decline).

So - sure, while you always will be able to find some outrageous example, where hype pushed the price for the location into the stratosphere (and hype deflation crashed it down afterwards) - the price for run of the mill sections never was that high, and it won't drop that much either. You still need to buy a section to build a house - remember? Price is a function of supply and demand.

when we have killed off the suburbs and put rows and rows of high density housing close to the centre of town what will the relative price of 'land' be then?

[BlackPeter]

BP - you need to come to Auckland and look at the absurd prices that were being paid for slivers of land around the city.

Try 60% land, 30% construction costs & 10% council charges etc.

So many reasons not to move to Auckland ... and you just raised another one! Good decision we moved in 1995 to Canterbury!

Still - With the cost mix you are proposing for Auckland overall property price might go a bit lower, but still not by much. Just put it into a spreadsheet and you will see :):

Obviously - if all the Aucklanders finally realise that they made a terrible mistake and all of them move at the same time to us ... In this case Auckland prices will crash and our land prices will go up into the stratosphere!

But even then it will balance out on a national level ;) ;

No panic - while a recession might come, I don't expect a house price crash ...

[Bjauck]

So many reasons not to move to Auckland ... and you just raised another one! Good decision we moved in 1995 to Canterbury!

Still - With the cost mix you are proposing for Auckland overall property price might go a bit lower, but still not by much. Just put it into a spreadsheet and you will see :):

Obviously - if all the Aucklanders finally realise that they made a terrible mistake and all of them move at the same time to us ... In this case Auckland prices will crash and our land prices will go up into the stratosphere!

But even then it will balance out on a national level ;) ;

No panic - while a recession might come, I don't expect a house price crash ... No doubt the stock of unsold expensive new houses that Dublin in Ireland experienced won't happen in Auckland....as NZ will open the doors wider for migrants to replace the young Kiwis heading overseas for good jobs and cheaper accommodation.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592

[Poolboy]

.as NZ will open the doors wider for migrants

The trouble is most migrants who come here are poor people who want the social welfare NZ provides.

[justakiwi]

I assume you have actual facts to back that statement up?



The trouble is most migrants who come here are poor people who want the social welfare NZ provides.

[bottomfeeder]

BP - you need to come to Auckland and look at the absurd prices that were being paid for slivers of land around the city.

Try 60% land, 30% construction costs & 10% council charges etc.

Staistics, statistics and dammn statistics. When I was an accountant, I remember when doing budgets, after a while I started to believe my own figures. Also when valuing businesses, small differences in required rates of return, and various adjustments for size, years in business and other factors, small changes in percentages made large differences in final figures. So subjective to small movements in percentage differences.

Probably why these days valuations always come in a range. Years ago, quotable value started using, for the basis of their valuations the premise that land value continues to go up, and second hand buildings must always depreciate in value, after all land - they are not making any more of it and buildings - they are deteriorating so must be worth less. Then the economics start to change and with lower interest rates other factors become more predominant. It all changes again. But you cant get away from inflationary facts. It just costs so much more to build.

Let us face facts, if the cost of new builds are increasing, then the existing stock of second hand houses must increase in value.There are so many variables which change the premise of value. But one main one is that over history, the value of property has always been increasing, even though there were hiccups on the way. How long they last and what effect they have is very subjective.

But what effect has this on retirement villages. Maybe some time in the past the "value of a licence to occupy" was tied to average house prices in various areas, but that is not set in stone. Retirement villages are becoming a standout investment apart from residential housing, with their own demand curve increasing rapidly. After all what is being sold is not just a residential unit. It has other important variables and factors affecting attractiveness, such as safety, proximity to specialist care, similar people, less requirements for exterior maintenance. Lets face it, I just spend $40,000 on a new roof and next I have to spend $5,000 on new guttering, then I am repainting the interior. I had to spend $700 because the tempering valve in the hot water system is not working correctly. These are costs you dont have with a licence to occupy. Its not just capital cost but costs of maintenance, periodic large items of refurbishment. So I would say retirement villages have a lot going for them and they need not be tied to residential house prices. They will have models all of their own.

Rather I would want my money in something like Oceania that many other investments out there. Dont let me get started on elderly moaning about why they should share in capital gain on licence to occupy units. What is going to happen when they have to make extra contributions for losses in property values, then we will hear the crying and moaning.

[Poolboy]

I assume you have actual facts to back that statement up?

Yep, get out of ever so safe and white Cantubury Mr Wokey and drive down Queen Street Auckland or Look around Wellington.

[Bjauck]

I am intrigued. For a couple who purchase an ORA in a village, with one of them later requiring rest home care, would the value of the ORA be included in the care subsidy asset means test and thus be liable to be sold if it is worth more than $239,930. After all, the couple would not “own” their home, yet the loan to The Village is an asset.

[Baa_Baa]

I am intrigued. For a couple who purchase an ORA in a village, with one of them later requiring rest home care, would the value of the ORA be included in the care subsidy asset means test and thus be liable to be sold if it is worth more than $239,930. After all, the couple would not “own” their home, yet the loan to The Village is an asset.

https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/products/a-z-benefits/residential-care-subsidy.html .. go to Step 2 of the application process.

[justakiwi]

Firstly, I'm not "Mr" anything.
Secondly, I'm not ashamed to be what you consider "woke" so thanks for the compliment!

Thirdly, I said "actual facts" - coming to a conclusion about people just by seeing them walk down the street, isn't facts buddy. Not even close.

Now lets get back to OCA shall we?


Yep, get out of ever so safe and white Cantubury Mr Wokey and drive down Queen Street Auckland or Look around Wellington.

[Bjauck]

https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/products/a-z-benefits/residential-care-subsidy.html .. go to Step 2 of the application process.
It does not answer my question. The value of the payment made to the RV company for the ORA less management fee fallen due is a loan and therefore an asset of the couple. Loans are part of the asset test. However is the value of the loan allowed to be classed as “a family home” for exemption purposes even though the RV actually owns the home?

Would couples be able to claim a prepaid lease on a leased/ rented home as an exempt “family home”? Would they be able to claim the assets put aside to pay for a rental house from their after-tax income as the “family home” exemption?

[BlackPeter]

The trouble is most migrants who come here are poor people who want the social welfare NZ provides.


Yep, get out of ever so safe and white Cantubury Mr Wokey and drive down Queen Street Auckland or Look around Wellington.

This is quite disgusting trash you are spreading.

Our point based immigration system always made sure that immigrants are employable and that they have relevant job experience, most of them actually do need a job offer to get a visa and on top that they do have to prove that they are financially independent. Remember as well - the first two years in NZ they are not even elegible for unemployment benefits and similar.

International studies show as well that immigrants in the first generation always have a lower unemployment rate as well as a lower crime rate than the comparable resident population.

[Baa_Baa]

It does not answer my question. The value of the payment made to the RV company for the ORA less management fee fallen due is a loan and therefore an asset of the couple. Loans are part of the asset test. However is the value of the loan allowed to be classed as “a family home” for exemption purposes even though the RV actually owns the home?

Would couples be able to claim a prepaid lease on a leased/ rented home as an exempt “family home”? Would they be able to claim the assets put aside to pay for a rental house from their after-tax income as the “family home” exemption?

I suppose as a last resort you could call MSD, and ask them?

[Curly]

After 5 & 1/2 years OCA up .07c on current SP. Who would of thought that when applying for the IPO? Will the crazy bear market turn into a grizzly bear or does November offer some hope for improvement.

[Gunner]

This is quite disgusting trash you are spreading.

Our point based immigration system always made sure that immigrants are employable and that they have relevant job experience, most of them actually do need a job offer to get a visa and on top that they do have to prove that they are financially independent. Remember as well - the first two years in NZ they are not even elegible for unemployment benefits and similar.

International studies show as well that immigrants in the first generation always have a lower unemployment rate as well as a lower crime rate than the comparable resident population.

Agreed, it's a lazy attack to negatively stereotype immigrants.

Often the migrants are in the good half of the best and brightest of where they come from. They want more for themselves and are often educated and skilled. Nz is not an easy place to emigrate to.

[SailorRob]

After 5 & 1/2 years OCA up .07c on current SP. Who would of thought that when applying for the IPO? Will the crazy bear market turn into a grizzly bear or does November offer some hope for improvement.


Actually traded at 83c intraday on the first day.

The current share price is a massive improvement if you are an investor.

If the board of directors contacted you and asked you if you would like to be given the entire company for free you would be ecstatic. Well it's a similar thing isn't it, if you would like to have it for free then by definition 86c is better than $1.60. It's closer to free now than it was recently.

If you are the seller though it really really sucks.

[Bjauck]

The trouble is most migrants who come here are poor people who want the social welfare NZ provides.

Yep, get out of ever so safe and white Cantubury Mr Wokey and drive down Queen Street Auckland or Look around Wellington. My apologies if my post gave you the inclination for these bigoted and racist posts.

[Poolboy]

Oh really. If they are losers in their own country they are hardly going to succeed here. You really think they come here for the mountains, the rivers and the trout fishing. It's the free medical dental dole and a free house. Or lowly paid Indians getting a tax payer funded education for their kids and free medical for their parents. But back to OCA. Even lower today although the average shares are up.

[Dcm]

Calling other people losers....this from the guy that posts in the guise of a child half of the time...hmmm

[rimu75]

Oh really. If they are losers in their own country they are hardly going to succeed here. You really think they come here for the mountains, the rivers and the trout fishing. It's the free medical dental dole and a free house. Or lowly paid Indians getting a tax payer funded education for their kids and free medical for their parents. But back to OCA. Even lower today although the average shares are up.

Absolutely racist. So racist it may drive some contributors from the forum. There's a difference between robust debate or having an opinion and just spouting your own racist ideology. Really awful. So many interesting ideas and approaches are posted on this thread. It's a shame to debase all the healthy discussion with a racist diatribe.

[mike2020]

Absolutely racist. So racist it may drive some contributors from the forum. There's a difference between robust debate or having an opinion and just spouting your own racist ideology. Really awful. So many interesting ideas and approaches are posted on this thread. It's a shame to debase all the healthy discussion with a racist diatribe.

I agree. The guy should be banned. I know MANY immigrants and they contribute hugely. Some have paid 100s of thousands to get an education here and or bring needed skills. Plus since I moved to Christchurch a couple of years ago I can tell you it is very multicultural. Ignorance at it's finest. Plus the effort and risk they take to build a new life most here will never appreciate. I don't think the forum needs a pool boy.

[Panda-NZ-]

The parent category visa needs added scrutiny given what NZ super costs.

Remember that many expats in Australia will be coming back here and claming super too which needs to be planned for.

[Poolboy]

Factually correct though. Move out of your comfort zone and walk past state houses and council houses. They are just about all foreign people. We have our own poor people who should be housed and given money first.

Bless them. Good on them. But I don't really want my tax payer money going to pay for some other countries problem people when we have enough problems here.

[justakiwi]

It is not factually correct at all. Did it ever occur to you that perhaps the people you have see seen, are immigrants brought out to NZ under the refugee quota/program? People in that category will be receiving government assistance until they can get on their feet and find employment. If you object to your tax dollars being spent on that, you are a selfish, uncaring human being.

The vast majority of immigrants are here because they have met the criteria for residency. That includes having a job offer and/or skills in particular employment sectors. They have a work ethic that is sadly lacking amongst many Kiwis. They are people who value and appreciate higher education and are probably amongst the “smartest” in both their own country and ours. Some of those “immigrants” to choose to disparage, have been here for many years. Plus, you literally have no way of knowing if someone from a different culture, that you met on the street was actually born here, making them a citizen, like you and I.

It is attitudes like yours that are dividing this country and destroying our history of being a caring and welcoming country. Just pack up your pool cleaning gear and go clean pools elsewhere. Your racism is not wanted or needed here.

Your mother must be so proud of you.

Now go away and let the rest of us get back on topic! :mad ;:


Factually correct though. Move out of your comfort zone and walk past state houses and council houses. They are just about all foreign people. We have our own poor people who should be housed and given money first.

Bless them. Good on them. But I don't really want my tax payer money going to pay for some other countries problem people when we have enough problems here.

[Bjauck]

Factually correct though. Move out of your comfort zone and walk past state houses and council houses. They are just about all foreign people. We have our own poor people who should be housed and given money first.

Bless them. Good on them. But I don't really want my tax payer money going to pay for some other countries problem people when we have enough problems here. While I am reluctant to give this more Oxygen, there are some who do not realise that the Realm of NZ includes NZ as well as the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau. Also, when you walk by, how do you judge if someone you see is "foreign"?

[dln]

Also, when you walk by, how do you judge if someone you see is "foreign"?
Easiest way to tell is, if their skin is white.

[850man]

Yes back on topic folks, none of this is helpful and plenty is offensive.

Back to business - lets line up the players in this market:
OCA closed at 86c against an NTA of 1.32 (65%) and a divvy of 5.12%.
SUM closed at $9.80 against an NTA of $8.91 (101%) and divvy of 1.97%
RYM closed at $8.40 against NTA of $6.76 (124%) and divvy of 2.67%

Yes those NTA's probably need adjusting down with current market values but they are all essentially comparable. The question is - at what price does OCA becoming a compelling buy? Feels that way already based on just this view alone.

[Rawz]

the lower the sp goes the more the knives come out :(

[justakiwi]

If I had the funds, I would be buying more, without any qualms whatsoever. Unfortunately, I don't.


Yes back on topic folks, none of this is helpful and plenty is offensive.

Back to business - lets line up the players in this market:
OCA closed at 86c against an NTA of 1.32 (65%) and a divvy of 5.12%.
SUM closed at $9.80 against an NTA of $8.91 (101%) and divvy of 1.97%
RYM closed at $8.40 against NTA of $6.76 (124%) and divvy of 2.67%

Yes those NTA's probably need adjusting down with current market values but they are all essentially comparable. The question is - at what price does OCA becoming a compelling buy? Feels that way already based on just this view alone.

[Poolboy]

I agree. The guy should be banned.

If you are cruely planning my execution; please remember I have always loved you like were my brother.

[Poolboy]

While I am reluctant to give this more Oxygen, there are some who do not realise that the Realm of NZ includes NZ as well as the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau. Also, when you walk by, how do you judge if someone you see is "foreign"?

If they are middle eastern or Chinese. NZ is a long way from these countries and there are plenty of safe places in between. Maybe not with free social welfare for them.

[SailorRob]

the lower the sp goes the more the knives come out :(

And the happier long term investors are.

[Mrbuyit]

Should we be expecting a dividend in December? I dont see a date listed. I wouldn't mind a few more shares whilst they are still on sale.

[850man]

If they are middle eastern or Chinese. NZ is a long way from these countries and there are plenty of safe places in between. Maybe not with free social welfare for them.
This has nothing to do with OCA, take it somewhere else but it's not welcomed here. You get this don't you?

[Poolboy]

This has nothing to do with OCA, take it somewhere else but it's not welcomed here. You get this don't you?

Yes, exactly, but I was just replying to Bjauk 13667 comments. You need to relax more. It's spring time and the birds are singing ♪♪ ♪♪

[Poolboy]

Should we be expecting a dividend in December? I dont see a date listed. I wouldn't mind a few more shares whilst they are still on sale.

December? I hope so. I need the money. Favourable words on TV3's Milford Asset Management's talk this morning regarding the markets. Yes, I may buy some more on this lovely pre-Christmas sale.

[bottomfeeder]

Funny how people are changing their sentiment on OCA simply based on price action .

Might be worthwhile remembering current price action isn’t a representation of the underlying business
Sorry to go back to March 2020. There was a lot of sentiment at the time that 60 cents was a bad investment. It's always the way when the price is down, a lot of doom and gloom and it will never recover. But it managed to get up to $1.70, some time later. Let's not get disheartened. They raised 100 mill at 3.3% and raised what was it 130 mill at 1.30, since then. Got to be a hold for when the good times come.

[Biscuit]

Yes back on topic folks, none of this is helpful and plenty is offensive.

Back to business - lets line up the players in this market:
OCA closed at 86c against an NTA of 1.32 (65%) and a divvy of 5.12%.
SUM closed at $9.80 against an NTA of $8.91 (101%) and divvy of 1.97%
RYM closed at $8.40 against NTA of $6.76 (124%) and divvy of 2.67%

Yes those NTA's probably need adjusting down with current market values but they are all essentially comparable. The question is - at what price does OCA becoming a compelling buy? Feels that way already based on just this view alone.

Apart from the fact it is in a well established down-trend, it looks like a compelling buy to me on fundamentals. Growth company in a sector with significant tail-winds, good yield and, apart from a major property crash (when has that ever happened) recession-proof. Question is whether you are a fundie or a TA investor. No TA investor will buy now at any price.

[Biscuit]

.... No TA investor will buy now at any price.

That's the advantage long-term fundamental investors have.

[Entrep]

Apart from the fact it is in a well established down-trend, it looks like a compelling buy to me on fundamentals. Growth company in a sector with significant tail-winds, good yield and, apart from a major property crash (when has that ever happened) recession-proof. Question is whether you are a fundie or a TA investor. No TA investor will buy now at any price.

Well put. Fundamentals to pick a stock, TA when to enter.

[Ggcc]

Well put. Fundamentals to pick a stock, TA when to enter.

Geez. Every day I look at this share fall and wonder how much lower it can go. I am wondering whether the next report comes out we may see some gains but until then it might keep dropping. I have money to spend but don’t want to catch the falling knife during these economic times.

My mate owns a building company here and everything is stalled all the time due to materials or contractors. Currently loads of work for ACC which don’t need quotes for. Plus Kaianga Ora is really pumping out the developments paying whatever the tradies bill them for. It’s good to be a contractor for the government.

One needs to think what retirement villages can offers to pay contractors for their services and how much these new builds are costing or what future builds will cost.

I feel this is a great longterm investment but how low will the price go?

[Biscuit]

Geez. Every day I look at this share fall and wonder how much lower it can go. I am wondering whether the next report comes out we may see some gains but until then it might keep dropping. I have money to spend but don’t want to catch the falling knife during these economic times.

My mate owns a building company here and everything is stalled all the time due to materials or contractors. Currently loads of work for ACC which don’t need quotes for. Plus Kaianga Ora is really pumping out the developments paying whatever the tradies bill them for. It’s good to be a contractor for the government.

One needs to think what retirement villages can offers to pay contractors for their services and how much these new builds are costing or what future builds will cost.

I feel this is a great longterm investment but how low will the price go?

It's not really about OCA, we are just in a Bear market and the market will keep on falling until it's had enough of going down. Since none of us know when that will be, I personally wouldn't let that determine whether I buy or sell.

[Poolboy]

"How do you make a small fortune in OCA shares?"

"You start off with a large fortune."

[bull....]

plenty of potential bag holder's entering the country to sell too

[winner69]

Love Jarred at the 10th Man. Here's a few bits from todays newsletter

- Earnings don’t matter?
- it is sentiment that matters
- It pains me to see this. It pains me to see people spend their entire lives manipulating numbers in a spreadsheet, thinking it’s going to give them some insight into what the stock market will do
- Earnings don’t matter. Fundamental analysis does not matter. What matters is how people feel about a stock
- etc etc.

Market sentiment about OCA these days sucks eh ...... really bad ..... so until that sentiment changes little hope of a much improved OCA share price ---- and don't overlook that generally people don't behave rationally'

Same applies to other stocks in this sector but on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is 'really sucks' and 10 is 'sort of sucks' you's have to put OCA at 1 (2 if being nice) ... ARV at 2 and RYM and SUM at 5 to 6


Latest The 10th Man here
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/earnings-dont-matter

[bull....]

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118188/anz-nz-ceo-antonia-watson-says-banks-monitoring-mortgage-borrowers-whose

ANZ New Zealand will soon be increasing its mortgage serviceability interest rate, the rate it tests mortgage applicants' ability to repay at, to above 8%.

must be concerned property market going to fall more

[justakiwi]

The market sentiment about OCA shows just how little "the market" understands about this company, and about Aged Care in general.


Love Jarred at the 10th Man. Here's a few bits from todays newsletter

- Earnings don’t matter?
- it is sentiment that matters
- It pains me to see this. It pains me to see people spend their entire lives manipulating numbers in a spreadsheet, thinking it’s going to give them some insight into what the stock market will do
- Earnings don’t matter. Fundamental analysis does not matter. What matters is how people feel about a stock
- etc etc.

Market sentiment about OCA these days sucks eh ...... really bad ..... so until that sentiment changes little hope of a much improved OCA share price ---- and don't overlook that generally people don't behave rationally'

Same applies to other stocks in this sector but on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is 'really sucks' and 10 is 'sort of sucks' you's have to put OCA at 1 (2 if being nice) ... ARV at 2 and RYM and SUM at 5 to 6


Latest The 10th Man here
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/earnings-dont-matter

[BlackPeter]

Love Jarred at the 10th Man. Here's a few bits from todays newsletter

- Earnings don’t matter?
- it is sentiment that matters
- It pains me to see this. It pains me to see people spend their entire lives manipulating numbers in a spreadsheet, thinking it’s going to give them some insight into what the stock market will do
- Earnings don’t matter. Fundamental analysis does not matter. What matters is how people feel about a stock
- etc etc.

Market sentiment about OCA these days sucks eh ...... really bad ..... so until that sentiment changes little hope of a much improved OCA share price ---- and don't overlook that generally people don't behave rationally'

Same applies to other stocks in this sector but on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is 'really sucks' and 10 is 'sort of sucks' you's have to put OCA at 1 (2 if being nice) ... ARV at 2 and RYM and SUM at 5 to 6


Latest The 10th Man here
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/earnings-dont-matter

Well, he just repackaged Ben Grahams old saying "“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine".

Obviously - this has nothing to do with OCA and all retirement stocks are more or less in the doldrums. However - OCA is as well a good example for a stock which will do well, when the reweighing happens.

Good stock for investors ... :) ;

[Baa_Baa]

The market sentiment about OCA shows just how little "the market" understands about this company, and about Aged Care in general.

And market sentiment presents opportunities to buy or accumulate value at beaten up prices. It wasn't so long ago people were moaning about everything being over-priced for the perceived value, now it's the opposite. Not just for OCA or the other RV's, but all over the market.

[Rawz]

The market sentiment about OCA shows just how little "the market" understands about this company, and about Aged Care in general.

Hey JAK, do you ever ask yourself, maybe the market is right and i am wrong?

i say that holding OCA and in the red heaps.

[winner69]

Well, he just repackaged Ben Grahams old saying "“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine".

Obviously - this has nothing to do with OCA and all retirement stocks are more or less in the doldrums. However - OCA is as well a good example for a stock which will do well, when the reweighing happens.

Good stock for investors ... :) ;

OCA is as well a good example for a stock which will do well, when the reweighing happens.

You not 'predicting' that are you ... or just 'hoping'

What happens if this 'weighing machine' is showing the correct weight today?

[Baa_Baa]

FY2023 interim results will be published in a few weeks (late Nov last year), of course they already know the numbers for H1, and no changes to guidance, so all good. Happy to patiently accumulate OCA. Next divi/DRP will be nice at these low SP's, unless world peace and happiness breaks out sometime soon. 5.28% gross div yield at current SP, best in sector.

[BlackPeter]

OCA is as well a good example for a stock which will do well, when the reweighing happens.

You not 'predicting' that are you ... or just 'hoping'

What happens if this 'weighing machine' is showing the correct weight today?

Well, it is today a great investment based on fundamentals (that's the weighing bit): At 84 cents it pays you a juicy dividend yield of 6% and comes with an earnings CAGR of 10.

Nobody can predict the future, but history shows that companies who provide essential services in a growing market tend to do well - I guess age care is basically just another part of essential infrastructure.

Not sure about your play with words ... if you watch the tide going out, are you "hoping" that it comes back, or do you "forecast" that it comes back?

Similar with OCA and other retirement providers, At the moment the tide is going out (though it might be already at its bottom) and unless Putin or the other dear leader play there next nuclear demo over NZ (or some other black swan event), I am sure it will come back.

[BlackPeter]

FY2023 interim results will be published in a few weeks (late Nov last year), of course they already know the numbers for H1, and no changes to guidance, so all good. Happy to patiently accumulate OCA. Next divi/DRP will be nice at these low SP's, unless world peace and happiness breaks out sometime soon. 5.28% gross div yield at current SP, best in sector.

Hmm - my calculator says that 5 cents dividend divided by 84 cents Share price equate roughly (give or take) 5.952%.

Do I need to buy a new calculator - or how do you get to just 5.28%?

[Rawz]

4.4/84=5.2%

[justakiwi]

No. Not with respect to OCA.


Hey JAK, do you ever ask yourself, maybe the market is right and i am wrong?

i say that holding OCA and in the red heaps.

[BlackPeter]

4.4/84=5.2%

Fair enough .... I noticed the 5 cents I used are the prediction for this years dividend, which is obviously (as anything in the future) uncertain.

So yes, dividend for the past FY was 4.4 cents. My fault. Withdraw, apologize and will keep my trusted table calculator in employment.

[Entrep]

Love Jarred at the 10th Man. Here's a few bits from todays newsletter

- Earnings don’t matter?
- it is sentiment that matters
- It pains me to see this. It pains me to see people spend their entire lives manipulating numbers in a spreadsheet, thinking it’s going to give them some insight into what the stock market will do
- Earnings don’t matter. Fundamental analysis does not matter. What matters is how people feel about a stock
- etc etc.

Market sentiment about OCA these days sucks eh ...... really bad ..... so until that sentiment changes little hope of a much improved OCA share price ---- and don't overlook that generally people don't behave rationally'

Same applies to other stocks in this sector but on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is 'really sucks' and 10 is 'sort of sucks' you's have to put OCA at 1 (2 if being nice) ... ARV at 2 and RYM and SUM at 5 to 6


Latest The 10th Man here
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/earnings-dont-matter

Can't say I agree. As when these things often pump, you are left wondering why didn't I buy/more. If sentiment was the only thing that mattered, there would never be peaks or toughs, everything would go in one direction.

[bull....]

every stock needs bag holders if things dont work out as hoped

[Entrep]

Are OCA/retirement stocks in the doldrums until the property market recovers? Or at least stops dropping?

[Rawz]

Are OCA/retirement stocks in the doldrums until the property market recovers? Or at least stops dropping?

yes, yes, after that we will all double our money

[BlackPeter]

Hey JAK, do you ever ask yourself, maybe the market is right and i am wrong?

i say that holding OCA and in the red heaps.

They say the market is always right, don't they? And yes, they are right ... only the market determines the price, which means that at any point in time the price the market determines is the price you can get or have to pay.

It is the same right the Russian soldiers have when raping Ukrainian women and killing Ukrainian children. They do have the guns and the bombs, so yes, they are always right, aren't they?

However - if you mean with "being right" that the market is able to determine the value and predict the future price of a stock, then (just look at any stock price trend) you will see, that the market is never "right." Otherwise stock prices would not jitter like crazy but move in very smooth and at any point in time rational explainable ways.

The same market who paid for OCA (to stay with the thread) 40 cents on 23/3/20 was as well right when it paid for the same share three weeks later 86 cents and two and a half months later $1.03 (without any fundamental changes, just the Covid hype started to drop). That's what the market paid - no quarrels over it. The same market was right when it paid 9/2/21 $1.59 for the same share (was this exuberance?). Can you imagine a more pathetic ability to predict future value? Market is never right predicting the future, but, so are we.

One thing however I learned is that market mood is moving in cycles ... and, unless there are terrible fundamentals (which nobody, despite the bitching of some posters, yet could show me) after a downcycle always will follow an upcycle.

Market is as right as any bipolar person going through their cycles ... they always think they are right, and if they have enough power over you, than they are - for the moment. However - they are not able to determine the future ... well, not better than the well known broken clock.

[justakiwi]

Depends what one means by "right" I guess. If you are talking about the share price on any given day, that's one thing. But if you mean the market's apparent belief that OCA is a dog and at the bottom of the sector heap, that belief is so far from being "right" it is ridiculous.


They say the market is always right, don't they? And yes, they are right ... only the market determines the price, which means that at any point in time the price the market determines is the price you can get or have to pay.....

[Maverick]

Here's an interesting graph which kind of proves that sentiment is not just in the driver's seat but in fact the only person in the car.
Of these 5 squiggles over the year to date, 4 are RVs in NZ;
RYM, SUM, ARV and OCA…plus the DJIA home construction index.
I wanted to see how correlated the NZ RV Share prices are together an then to the USA home construction market.
My thinking is that offshore fund managers probably see our RVs as simple property developers. ( being unaware or uninterested in the magic of the ORA contract).
Ive purposely left off the key to which line is which to stop instantly looking for whatever favourite team we might be predisposed to.

To my eye the graphs firstly does say the international investor view of our RVs are indeed seen as just home construction companies. Therefore dumped by the fundies in accordance.
Secondly, all our RV companies despite their various models i.e care/villa % , NTA, yields , CAGR, etc they are being ultimately treated as one and the same. (over time).
There seems to be have been no point over this period on picking one company over another.

One small highlight is that the DJI home construction index has got no worse than 4 months ago ( despite fluctuating somewhat) and even been slightly rising recently. Perhaps , touch wood , we are already at the floor. ok , that's the light blue line.

For the record. As hard as I look for errors in my workings and real economic changes to the inputs I have found no reason to change my earlier expectation of the upcoming underlying profit of approx EPS 4.5c. It wont be perfect but until proven otherwise there is no known real information out there that I can unearth that things have got tougher out there for RVs. In fact , covid and supply issues have gotten relatively easier.

Anyone can come up with reasons to justify why a shareprice did whatever it did ( both ways) but on a fundamental level, if anyone has any REAL information that RV units arn`t selling as well or their prices are falling, or anything else note worthy, Id really love to hear it. I just cant find ANY hard evidence myself things arn`t carrying on just as expected for all the operators.

Fundamentally it comes down to ones own expectations of a housing crash or global meltdown. But should neither of these occur Im of the strong opinion the market has this very very wrong.
https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/fT0TxjWcWXPpmnWb3dS6BmjhSGrgzSWYsDGbYCko367k4zqlUo uxWZR9Z8G1t64sYbg527J-k9iyfQM81TwvYdey8ZRX0VR2n_6yoZWakYENEI2tIlje8iiBlg tGEZsi4e_RXvmL66u4FoIYdnsuixgxk4UXMqIacJ68JbwdCd4N rB4WtLT6JJrPng

[winner69]

That's an intriguing correlation maverick

[Swala]

Fascinating insight. Thank you!

[bull....]

they are property developers who leverage there gains to rinse and repeat. thats how they make most of there money
dare i say the gig is up for property developers for the near future

[Bjauck]

Surely overseas fund managers would have research assistants to look into prospective NZ investments. A cursory analysis reveals the ORA effect. Maybe I am being naive.

[iceman]

Surely overseas fund managers would have research assistants to look into prospective NZ investments. A cursory analysis reveals the ORA effect. Maybe I am being naive.

Hopefully, for OCA investors, not TA focused ;)

[Baa_Baa]

Hopefully, for OCA investors, not TA focused ;)

This is a sector wide issue, anything to do with property. Not just OCA.

[winner69]

Was an interesting correlation Maverick but I note it's only since beginning of this year


To test your thinking that offshore fund managers probably see our RVs as simple property developers it would be good if you looked at the trends say over 5 years

Can you do that?

[Baa_Baa]

To test your thinking that offshore fund managers probably see our RVs as simple property developers it would be good if you looked at the trends say over 5 years

Generally it seems to, though whether that proves the 'fund manager' theory is debatable. This chart is our RV's relative performance with DOW Jones U.S. Real Estate Index (DJUSRE) since 2017 https://invst.ly/zcwr4

After the Covid lows, DJUSRE peaked about 3-4 months later than our RV's, then went into a similar decline. Might be nothing in that, but it's perked up already on this chart whereas our RV's haven't yet.

[BlackPeter]

Hopefully, for OCA investors, not TA focused ;)

Ever seen a (reasonably large sized and successful) fund buying or selling based on TA (i.e. with the tide)? That's something only couta's reef fish can do. A fund can only buy meaningful into a downturn and sell into an upswing - otherwise they just create their own technicals which have nothing to do with market mood.

[winner69]

Generally it seems to, though whether that proves the 'fund manager' theory is debatable. This chart is our RV's relative performance with DOW Jones U.S. Real Estate Index (DJUSRE) since 2017 https://invst.ly/zcwr4

After the Covid lows, DJUSRE peaked about 3-4 months later than our RV's, then went into a similar decline. Might be nothing in that, but it's perked up already on this chart whereas our RV's haven't yet.

Thanks baabaa

SUM been an 'outlier' most of the time ..... top in the pecking order eh

[Entrep]

SUM is a favourite of the brokers, they push it over OCA to their clients I know that first hand.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks baabaa

SUM been an 'outlier' most of the time ..... top in the pecking order eh

Certainly has been relatively, note the data is SP relative performance, which doesn't include earnings paid out. SUM has a pitiful gross dividend yield at 1.99% compared to OCA at 5.24%. Hard to see why a dividend hound would like that, unless they're banking solely on continuing SP outperformance.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks baabaa

SUM been an 'outlier' most of the time ..... top in the pecking order eh

They certainly are.

However the old saying "the higher they climb the harder they fall" springs to mind. Just remember what happened with RYM, XRO and FPH so much loved by fund managers at times.

Some people prefer to buy cheap (i.e. unloved) and sell dear (i.e. pushed by fund managers), but each to their own ...

[Poolboy]

SUM is a favourite of the brokers, they push it over OCA to their clients I know that first hand.

Well, I hope the brokers didn't promote it too much a year ago. Another lame duck.

[Maverick]

Hi Winner,
I see BaaBaa has already sorted it.
In fact his use of the real estate index is more relevant than the home construction index I used. ( Cheers for that)
Personally I cant see , nor would expect to see a correlation over 5 years. I would expect that each company over that large time frame has time to settle on its own merits - as per SUMs outlying.( you know, the "weighing machine" thing).
The reason I selected the YTD timeframe for comparisons is that's when inflation became the only story in town and rose rapidly enough for global players to shoot first and ask questions later. See graph below.

I think BaaBaa`s "real estate index" is even more correlated to our RV share price falls. Seeing it fall to its newest low a few weeks ago which is more in keeping with NZ RV stocks. But it is good to see it on a nice rebound over there in the USA. ( as we continue to fall)

It seems pretty clear from the chart below that the US housing market ( blue line) has finally managed to decouple and not be dependent on the OCA share price. ..."jeez I crack myself up"
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/LUvQbnb_I_SPeYJxeDdxBzK7F8fBN3CAdCdjioQlVv5zig5-JNGKfKRm1cmjLcjAQCBf8by2gd2mVRp38gZQQruJzh9D9-sIjBTnfqr9ba788N5jHvX_Jnt2PzrZcAbhFcbeoABoLWpUgMSb Gh2rZVNJAEbg-04mOdZYvYKP1AgEY0fwj8nhrtVnOQ

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/rWorivHJGKd0eIl1WvZIsEOF85wsOP195IgqIsJ7zVccqHyMAw-qGCVIkgJI03V3mmfG9zkLvXA7_0cdCQCVpZoOhRar8p0RtM-ip7gs2lNlXa-UdNQE5o9M43yCXySn6rsSZGyl0iqC2lBuYgJc6PAi1N8XQx6ld X15VHKdFw2rGrdEFZYXW04uDQhttps://www.sharetrader.co.nz/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAA7YAAAGWCAYAAAB MyR HAAAgAElEQVR4nOzdeYwk533m eeNiLyqurp5tNRFmyLFEWWb7Yt2SYSoAXcX4pQ8WAwLWnJlQxS 5s4KBWSyE7l54bIBeyZqFJa4I0GOA7OECu4AhGKQowIRkojTAj FUmAa9tNW2pZNnSNNcSbYpNalhNN9nddeUVEe/ ERlZkVmZlUdlZkRmfz9Ak3Xk8WZkVlU8 fu972sqlYq11spaK0lq/zj5/6ROXwMAAAAAYNI8Y8y LxpjZK1V/D2CLQAAAAAgq5rBNhlm20Ntp/BLsAUAAAAAZMGBFdv441gyzHa6HgAAAAAAk9YSbNsDbXtVtluY pXoLAAAAAEiLJ6lr23GncNsJ1VsAAAAAQFq8XnNpAQAAAADIMi/ oD3UdppjCwAAAABA1njdtvQh0AIAAAAApkHXiq3EolAAAAAAgO zzDvomVVsAAAAAQNY5aQ8AAAAAAIDD8LotGgUAAAAAwDTY14rc rf2YwAsAAAAAyKID59gmMd8WAAAAAJBFzLEFAAAAAEw1gi0AAA AAYKoRbAEAAAAAU41gi5Rt6NlfNTKm7d/nz3W/ykuPtl72V5/VhiS98aweaLmdR3VO0rnPt11uEInbfPSlwR/doe57YhLPwUHHfVKj 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[winner69]

Wonder which one of the dozen or so profit measures they have Brent will headline in a few weeks .... probably the one that puts them in good light and possibly even compared to a 'restated adjusted' number last year

Anyway my guess is that'll they would have sold 240 contracts for realised gains of $45m and then had a $5m shortfall/loss on care giving them Underlying Earnings of $40m - not bad v $27.5m last year.

Wonder what Stat NPAT will be - that's key - last year was $36.9m last year

But at the end of the day numbers are only a measure of whats happened in the past .... its the story that Brent tells that's important

[Poolboy]

86 cents. That's a bit more positive :)

[RTM]

86 cents. That's a bit more positive :)

Or a bit less negative… depending on when / where u entered.

[bottomfeeder]

Or a bit less negative… depending on when / where u entered.

Reminds me of a book I read once, "I've been down so long, it looks like up to me"

But I have confidence that when construction inflation is taken into account, and valuations are carried out as at 31 March, the NAV will be at least $1.50.

I'm in there for the long haul. The government and the DHB's cannot let the sector fail, as there are very few alternatives for the tsunami of the elderly coming soon to utilise the services and property that retirement villages provide.

The world economies are in disarray. Retirement is the only sector we can count on.

[winner69]

Reminds me of a book I read once, "I've been down so long, it looks like up to me"

But I have confidence that when construction inflation is taken into account, and valuations are carried out as at 31 March, the NAV will be at least $1.50.

I'm in there for the long haul. The government and the DHB's cannot let the sector fail, as there are very few alternatives for the tsunami of the elderly coming soon to utilise the services and property that retirement villages provide.

The world economies are in disarray. Retirement is the only sector we can count on.

Just as well Gen Z and Millenials have taken the responsibility to ensure the elderly are cared for to the highest standards

[allfromacell]

Just as well Gen Z and Millenials have taken the responsibility to ensure the elderly are cared for to the highest standards

I think you'll find most of us are planning our exits accordingly. NZ is no longer a safe place to live, the elderly are going to continue needing more and more public hospital resources.

[Baa_Baa]

I think you'll find most of us are planning our exits accordingly. NZ is no longer a safe place to live, the elderly are going to continue needing more and more public hospital resources.

Sad but true, that we all have to face that eventually. Though it would be a great success and a sweet irony if my retirement shares paid for my 'retirement', including some day a nice village to live in, then a safe and friendly place to get really old, and a safer place to look after me when I'm incapable of looking after myself. I don't want to be a burden on my children, they already have a lot more to worry about than paying for my old age needs.