OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bottomfeeder]

Great post.

The government will step up to make care more viable and have put that into their future plans. However I feel that right now spending is the wisest idea for this government to do and I feel they wont try to make more cuts in spending to keep inflation lower.

Care subsidy side will increase, above inflation for a few more years meaning more payrises for care employees. Great news for short term

Hear hear.

[Ggcc]

Hear hear.
Haha. Nice changes. If only

[winner69]

Another month passes and again the market demonstrates its more 'attracted' to SUM than to OCA .... the trend since OCA listed continues.

I know many of you will say such a measure is useless and meaningless and a load of the proverbial .... but I think it's intriguing and if nothing else its a beautiful chart

Must mean something

Wish OCA would hurry up and get back to $1.60 as SUM will probably be over $20 by then

[SailorRob]

Another month passes and again the market demonstrates its more 'attracted' to SUM than to OCA .... the trend since OCA listed continues.

I know many of you will say such a measure is useless and meaningless and a load of the proverbial .... but I think it's intriguing and if nothing else its a beautiful chart

Must mean something

Wish OCA would hurry up and get back to $1.60 as SUM will probably be over $20 by then

And then what. Wasn't it better at 42c?

[Biscuit]

Another month passes and again the market demonstrates its more 'attracted' to SUM than to OCA .... the trend since OCA listed continues.

I know many of you will say such a measure is useless and meaningless and a load of the proverbial .... but I think it's intriguing and if nothing else its a beautiful chart

Must mean something

Wish OCA would hurry up and get back to $1.60 as SUM will probably be over $20 by then

As one who owns RYM and OCA and has never owned SUM, I'd say I see no beauty in that chart at all! Anyway, OCA is due for a good run, never be this cheap again.

[Curly]

Ok if you held IFT shares @ 8.32 would you sell and buy OCA at .93c?
Chances of OCA to double in price seems Possible, chances of IFT doubling in price ? Not sure. Good div return tho.

[Ggcc]

Ok if you held IFT shares @ 8.32 would you sell and buy OCA at .93c?
Chances of OCA to double in price seems Possible, chances of IFT doubling in price ? Not sure. Good div return tho.
Since they arrived on the market, there are many who doubled down on a theory that OCA would double faster than many shares, including myself and they are all still waiting. Luckily I had to sell some OCA amongst other shares at $1.50-$1.60 to buy a house. Still waiting to see this share bounce higher than $1.80. Maybe 2025, maybe 2035

[Waltzing]

well some cities are experiencing tight land availability should keep those apartment suite prices up ..

Wellington property owners stung with double the average rates increase - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/wellington-property-owners-stung-with-double-the-average-rates-increase/H4AJSN4376MI4ERHN6PQIDQNJY/)

[RTM]

Ok if you held IFT shares @ 8.32 would you sell and buy OCA at .93c?
Chances of OCA to double in price seems Possible, chances of IFT doubling in price ? Not sure. Good div return tho.

Well...I am holding my IFT shares....but would not buy more today. I am not selling.
I also hold some OCA....about half what I had...and am considering buying more.
FWIW.

[Curly]

Me too on current trend. OCA overdue for a lift

[Baa_Baa]

Me too on current trend. OCA overdue for a lift

Nice pop today, TA says 30EMA and 50EMA closed above. If it holds, it's right on 2022 resistance now. Solid volume almost twice average. Probably the Jardens punters piling in on their $1.20 TP. This is also a breakout of a year-long descending price channel. 10% up already from June low. Just saying.

[winner69]

Nice pop today, TA says 30EMA and 50EMA closed above. If it holds, it's right on 2022 resistance now. Solid volume almost twice average. Probably the Jardens punters piling in on their $1.20 TP. This is also a breakout of a year-long descending price channel. 10% up already from June low. Just saying.

Yep baabaa - OCA doing well at +10%

Sector on a roll - RYM +14% and SUM +18% from 26 week lows

OCA always seems to be the laggard - the under performer of the bunch - so frustrating

Just saying

[Old mate]

Getting up towards the dollar. Thought we would never see it again:t_up:

[winner69]

Getting up towards the dollar. Thought we would never see it again:t_up:

Could be today but definitely tomorrow

A dollar :t_up::t_up::t_up:

[BlackPeter]

Could be today but definitely tomorrow

A dollar :t_up::t_up::t_up:

It is the day: closing at 101 - this is above the MA100!

[Baa_Baa]

Yep baabaa - OCA doing well at +10%

14.67% now. How did the other ones you prefer do today, whole sector up?

[Old mate]

Good to see. Funny how it sits around for weeks doing nothing. Then all of a sudden it's off to the races.

[peat]

14.67% now. How did the other ones you prefer do today, whole sector up?

not really
14028

[winner69]

14.67% now. How did the other ones you prefer do today, whole sector up?

Yes OCA was the STAR today


What’s the saying - form is temporary, class is permanent

The classy Oceania really did perform today …hopefully go on with it from here ……Even BP has called a trend change

[Habits]

Could be today but definitely tomorrow

A dollar :t_up::t_up::t_up:

Am a shd again bought yesterday and it feels good. Now just need sky to perform

[Misty]

Yes, very good to see, seems a long time ago it was at 159. Onwards & upwards hopefully!

[Old mate]

House prices falling at fastest rate since gfc. US markets down , going to be interesting to see what price does today.

[Onion]

Getting up towards the dollar. Thought we would never see it again:t_up:

I hope it continues up OM.

But I wonder how many times someone on here has said "We won't see OCA drop below $1 again"!

[winner69]

Into that much discussed 100 to 110 range

Once it breaks free of that ....ie over 110 .....it's all on again ...class will prevail ......and we'll never see $1 again

[mike2020]

Yes much the same spiel was sold when it popped back over a dollar last time only to retreat from $1.12 back to .90. What has changed? Nothing positive as yet externally if you are reading sentiment in the news today. Didn't Beagle say it would hit 60 cents again?

[justakiwi]

Do we care what Beagle said? He is not here anymore. Time for people to do their own thinking now.


Yes much the same spiel was sold when it popped back over a dollar last time only to retreat from $1.12 back to .90. What has changed? Nothing positive as yet externally if you are reading sentiment in the news today. Didn't Beagle say it would hit 60 cents again?

[mike2020]

I am doing my very own thinking you don't need to worry. I am just questioning what has actually changed.

[ralph]

Do we care what Beagle said? He is not here anymore. Time for people to do their own thinking now.

Oh dear someone's got a chip on their shoulder!!

We will never see $1 again
Agree with you big time there

This time is different ……Oceania have confirmed, without doubt, they.are on a roll and numbers wil only get better from here.

Someone's view a couple of months before today so maybe they will be correct & eventually that statement will be true, a clock is right twice a day

[justakiwi]

You are right. I do. And make no apologies for it for reasons previously explained.

But that wasn’t actually the point of my post. As investors it is very easy to fall into the trap of simply following those we see as “gurus” or “experts.” We need to stop doing that. We need to make our own investing decisions based on our own research and analysis or whatever we use. I am as much at fault as anyone. I have my “wise ST friends” too, and I often seek their guidance. But I don’t base all my decisions on what any particular ST member believes.

So what Beagle posted in the past is of no consequence to me now. He was also, not always right.




Oh dear someone's got a chip on their shoulder!!

We will never see $1 again
Agree with you big time there

This time is different ……Oceania have confirmed, without doubt, they.are on a roll and numbers wil only get better from here.

Someone's view a couple of months before today so maybe they will be correct & eventually that statement will be true, a clock is right twice a day

[winner69]

Getting up towards the dollar. Thought we would never see it again:t_up:

Hey Old mate ……phew that was a bit of fright at the close …nearly went sub $1 again

[Old mate]

Jeepers winner I don't know if I could cope watching that again!:t_up:

[Baa_Baa]

Hey Old mate ……phew that was a bit of fright at the close …nearly went sub $1 again

Look what's driving the day trading, within such a tight daily trading spread. https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/oca.nzx/ Heaps of very low value trades, tons of them. They're either bot trades or small punters, but notably the very low value trades are also high frequency trades and didn't really get going until about 1/2 hour before close. But even before then, most of the low value trades throughout the day pulled the price down a pip, check it out. I'm leaning towards bots controlling the SP, protecting the low entry price, then 464k trade in the close. Total trades 3x average daily volume. Open SP = Close SP. Masterful.

Suss? Oh yeah, looks suss alright. Looks like controlled accumulation imo.

[Old mate]

Very interesting baa baa. Some trades $1 :mellow: and plenty under $10

[justakiwi]

Most of those will be Sharesies orders I suspect, and probably also some of the larger small orders, like mine ;)


Very interesting baa baa. Some trades $1 :mellow: and plenty under $10

[Baa_Baa]

Most of those will be Sharesies orders I suspect, and probably also some of the larger small orders, like mine ;)

The reason I doubt that, not that you weren't getting some, is that the very low value trades (most under $10) are very high frequency, like within a few seconds of each other. Exceptionally low value/volume trades less than 10 shares within seconds of each other (before the closing auction), many of them today compressed into a 1/2 hour before close, and within an extremely tight price spread. Humans don't behave like this on market, but machines do. Followed by a slam dunk 464k shares in 29 trades at close only pulling the SP down 1 cent. Open = Close.

Whatever it is, it does seem a bit odd that a boring RV attracts so much trading attention of very low values, very high frequency, within a very tight price range followed by a slam dunk 1/2 million shares at close that only moves the market 1 cent back to open price. Unless the machines are managing a market price for larger accumulation. When the machines stop is because the buyer has their fill, and the price bolts upwards, which is of course what they want.

Might sound fanciful to us common folks, but, read up on who or what is actually buying your sells or selling your buys. Especially the large players acting on behalf of their investors and who pay no fees on their trades.

[Ferg]

Interesting Baa_Baa. Thanks for sharing.

Oh no, here it is....


......and we'll never see $1 again

....the kiss of death! Last time you said that about a higher price winner ($1.50 or $1.60?) it was nothing but carnage that followed.

[RupertBear]

The reason I doubt that, not that you weren't getting some, is that the very low value trades (most under $10) are very high frequency, like within a few seconds of each other. Exceptionally low value/volume trades less than 10 shares within seconds of each other (before the closing auction), many of them today compressed into a 1/2 hour before close, and within an extremely tight price spread. Humans don't behave like this on market, but machines do. Followed by a slam dunk 464k shares in 29 trades at close only pulling the SP down 1 cent. Open = Close.

Whatever it is, it does seem a bit odd that a boring RV attracts so much trading attention of very low values, very high frequency, within a very tight price range followed by a slam dunk 1/2 million shares at close that only moves the market 1 cent back to open price. Unless the machines are managing a market price for larger accumulation. When the machines stop is because the buyer has their fill, and the price bolts upwards, which is of course what they want.

Might sound fanciful to us common folks, but, read up on who or what is actually buying your sells or selling your buys. Especially the large players acting on behalf of their investors and who pay no fees on their trades.

Interesting thoughts thanks Baa Baa. :)

Oh what a small small fish am I in a huge huge sea of bigger smarter fish :mellow:

[Rawz]

Interesting thoughts thanks Baa Baa. :)

Oh what a small small fish am I in a huge huge sea of bigger smarter fish :mellow:
That’s what I was thinking too lol. But then remembered in the long run none of this matters. Only performance matters

[justakiwi]

Remember, those big fish all started out small, like us ;)


Interesting thoughts thanks Baa Baa. :)

Oh what a small small fish am I in a huge huge sea of bigger smarter fish :mellow:



That’s what I was thinking too lol. But then remembered in the long run none of this matters. Only performance matters

[BlackPeter]

Remember, those big fish all started out small, like us ;)

To be fair - we don't know that. Some people start with a big fortune and turn that over time into a small one :) ;

[850man]

To be fair - we don't know that. Some people start with a big fortune and turn that over time into a small one :) ;

Some days I feel like that... shrinkage in investments over the last 2 years has a frightening red figure on the bottom line now. I sometimes question my ride it out strategy :(:scared:

[bottomfeeder]

That’s what I was thinking too lol. But then remembered in the long run none of this matters. Only performance matters

Always thought someone was manipulating the SP, keeping it down to either accumulate or start a takeover, that is if it worked for them. Maybe something is coming up.

[RTM]

Remember, those big fish all started out small, like us ;)

Nah...don't think so JAK, many / most (?) of those big fish had a significant head start in life. I have no illusions about that.

[winner69]

Always thought someone was manipulating the SP, keeping it down to either accumulate or start a takeover, that is if it worked for them. Maybe something is coming up.


Now you are talking ……bring it on ..takeover offer $1.40 would be good

[justakiwi]

I was referring more to ST "big fish" - as in large investors here. Do you really think most of those here in that category, had a hand up? Maybe I'm being naive but I figured the majority probably got where they are today, through sheer hard work and determination, with a bit of good luck along the way.

You've disillusioned me now ;)


Nah...don't think so JAK, many / most (?) of those big fish had a significant head start in life. I have no illusions about that.

[justakiwi]

Might be good for those who got in years ago, but for those who came in later, and have small holdings compared to most, a takeover at that price would not be ideal. I'd rather stick with it for the long term and wait for Mav's $2.



Now you are talking ……bring it on ..takeover offer $1.40 would be good

[RTM]

I was referring more to ST "big fish" - as in large investors here. Do you really think most of those here in that category, had a hand up? Maybe I'm being naive but I figured the majority probably got where they are today, through sheer hard work and determination, with a bit of good luck along the way.

You've disillusioned me now ;)

You might be a bit more correct with respect to ST Big Fish. Even so.
Don't be disillusioned....it is what it is. Doesn't stop everyone doing the best that they can.

[cyclist]

Might be good for those who got in years ago, but for those who came in later, and have small holdings compared to most, a takeover at that price would not be ideal. I'd rather stick with it for the long term and wait for Mav's $2.

$1.40 definitely not, but more generally a takeover of any sort is a firm no from me. I've got a 10 year time frame before I might need the money, and happy to see what they can do with it over that period (unexpected stuff-ups excepted).

[SailorRob]

$1.40 definitely not, but more generally a takeover of any sort is a firm no from me. I've got a 10 year time frame before I might need the money, and happy to see what they can do with it over that period (unexpected stuff-ups excepted).

Exactly.

The 'takeover at 1.40 would be good' comment...

Has to be a joke.

[Maverick]

Might be good for those who got in years ago, but for those who came in later, and have small holdings compared to most, a takeover at that price would not be ideal. I'd rather stick with it for the long term and wait for Mav's $2.
I still standby that expectation too JAK. While none of us can know the mood of the market in a couple of years time , I am confident of my EPS expectations over that time frame.
If the market is still as grumpy as it is now with property then $2 is about right in 22 months (based on projected EPS) but should the mood return to a more historical level of happiness then $3 would be the upper end of the SP range.
Yes, I know that seems pie in the sky stuff based on the last 4 years flat underlying earnings but OCA really has “positioned itself for growth” and to reiterate, we should finally start to see the bottom line lift next 1HY , although remember profits are always greater in 2HY.
(that’s simply because that’s when OCAs prospective clients get out and about when things warm up a bit)

[winner69]

looking forward to the bots getting serious (been quiet so far today) as the week comes to an end so those nasty people 'manipulating' the price get their way

Old mate - wonder what'll happen?

[Old mate]

Been below a dollar a few times today winner. I reckon close at a buck again. Can't go below that:t_up:

[winner69]

Been below a dollar a few times today winner. I reckon close at a buck again. Can't go below that:t_up:

The manipulators played a perfect game again .... getting price down 99 cents

Relatively small volumes though

[Old mate]

Nooooo we are never going to see a dollar again:t_up:

[winner69]

Nooooo we are never going to see a dollar again:t_up:

we need the nasty manipulators to stop manipulating

Unlikely though because they have been manipulating for years

Seems we are at their mercy

[Waltzing]

Winner must take a lot of time posting on both sites unless you have created a personal BOT!!!

[Old mate]

Pretty interesting the manipulation alright. Wonder what the goal is. More shares cheap?:t_up:

[Curly]

Are we beginning to see a change in market sentiment for OCA? A takeover interest would not be such bad thing me thinks. $1,40 does see on the light side perhaps? What it would do is force the market to re-evaluate OCA and come up with a true and realistic market price. Similar to what happened with IFT. Look at IFTs price now, $9+. That would no doubt bring a return of the Beagle to the shores of OCA signalling a “game changer” event and once again OCA being the best thing around before flip flopping on another trade.

[winner69]

I still standby that expectation too JAK. While none of us can know the mood of the market in a couple of years time , I am confident of my EPS expectations over that time frame.
If the market is still as grumpy as it is now with property then $2 is about right in 22 months (based on projected EPS) but should the mood return to a more historical level of happiness then $3 would be the upper end of the SP range.
Yes, I know that seems pie in the sky stuff based on the last 4 years flat underlying earnings but OCA really has “positioned itself for growth” and to reiterate, we should finally start to see the bottom line lift next 1HY , although remember profits are always greater in 2HY.
(that’s simply because that’s when OCAs prospective clients get out and about when things warm up a bit)

Jeez Mav, you are getting bullish now hinting at $3 share price

[mike2020]

Just for fun. If I had a million in cash and I bought a rental in my area I would net 28k before tax at best after rates and insurance, no R@M. An investment in OCA without any of the additional work of owning rental would be 44k on last years divs. I'm sure your all capable of simple math.

[Maverick]

Jeez Mav, you are getting bullish now hinting at $3 share price
Ok, “let’s try to manage expectations “ a bit here Winner, let’s say upper SP range on a good day after 2024 FY could hit $2.99. But to be safe let’s think $2 for now.

There’s some nice shifts in OCAs drivers that have already happened to get us there,
the main ones are,
-The highly disruptive and profit reducing care suite building phase has now bowed and finally made way to the apartment phase ( on the freed up land). OCA now have a ton of the “money making apartments” delivered and are currently selling down as we speak with plenty more being built.
-more Auckland / Hamilton / Tauranga centric deliveries ( as opposed to Chch and Nelson) with their higher pricing and margins.
- the constant juggernaut rise of village and care DMF ( and PAC ).

Then there’s the lessor drivers;
-High corporate cost increases of front footing the increase in build rate from 200 to 300 should likely stabilize.
- $2.5m of covid costs last year are non reoccurring, stated publicly twice by Brent.
- just maybe some accretive acquisition growth chucked in.( but who knows for sure on that one , I haven’t factored any).

notice I have no allowance for improved Govt care funding, that’s just a bonus if it was to magically happen.

Then there are several other tweaks to the positive.
On the potential negative , even if the HPI was to fall 20% peak to trough, that still gives OCA head room to maintain pricing. Whereas SUM has already booked a lot of those rises considering their own massive jump in embedded value last report, OCA has not. Just saying that a decent fall in HPI wont hurt OCA profit nearly ( if at all ) as much as the market seems to be factoring.

So throwing a SP around with a 3 in front would, while possible, mean everything has gone right, which we know from experience seldom does. I realistically expect $1.80-$2.40 based on PE 13-17 by mid 2024

Despite these calculatable “ facts”, the share price could well remain subdued for some time yet as we know the market really isn't interested in looking that far ahead.
This puppy will all but certainly have its day with handsome EPS gains and the SP has to follow.

[percy]

Ok, “let’s try to manage expectations “ a bit here Winner, let’s say upper SP range on a good day after 2024 FY could hit $2.99. But to be safe let’s think $2 for now.

There’s some nice shifts in OCAs drivers that have already happened to get us there,
the main ones are,
-The highly disruptive and profit reducing care suite building phase has now bowed and finally made way to the apartment phase ( on the freed up land). OCA now have a ton of the “money making apartments” delivered and are currently selling down as we speak with plenty more being built.
-more Auckland / Hamilton / Tauranga centric deliveries ( as opposed to Chch and Nelson) with their higher pricing and margins.
- the constant juggernaut rise of village and care DMF ( and PAC ).

Then there’s the lessor drivers;
-High corporate cost increases of front footing the increase in build rate from 200 to 300 should likely stabilize.
- $2.5m of covid costs last year are non reoccurring, stated publicly twice by Brent.
- just maybe some accretive acquisition growth chucked in.( but who knows for sure on that one , I haven’t factored any).

notice I have no allowance for improved Govt care funding, that’s just a bonus if it was to magically happen.

Then there are several other tweaks to the positive.
On the potential negative , even if the HPI was to fall 20% peak to trough, that still gives OCA head room to maintain pricing. Whereas SUM has already booked a lot of those rises considering their own massive jump in embedded value last report, OCA has not. Just saying that a decent fall in HPI wont hurt OCA profit nearly ( if at all ) as much as the market seems to be factoring.

So throwing a SP around with a 3 in front would, while possible, mean everything has gone right, which we know from experience seldom does. I realistically expect $1.80-$2.40 based on PE 13-17 by mid 2024

Despite these calculatable “ facts”, the share price could well remain subdued for some time yet as we know the market really isn't interested in looking that far ahead.
This puppy will all but certainly have its day with handsome EPS gains and the SP has to follow.

Thanks for sharing your superior analysis.
I am pleased you continue to post here.

[justakiwi]

Mav, the time and effort you have put into your analysis of OCA is outstanding. I for one, appreciate everything you have offered to date, more than you can imagine. It is a breath of fresh air to have such a worthy contributor in these forums, who is willing to share, without preaching, and without any need for ego-stroking.

When we hit $2.40, we need to catch up for a celebratory drink or two ;)

(or maybe even $2)


Ok, “let’s try to manage expectations “ a bit here Winner, let’s say upper SP range on a good day after 2024 FY could hit $2.99. But to be safe let’s think $2 for now.

There’s some nice shifts in OCAs drivers that have already happened to get us there,
the main ones are,
-The highly disruptive and profit reducing care suite building phase has now bowed and finally made way to the apartment phase ( on the freed up land). OCA now have a ton of the “money making apartments” delivered and are currently selling down as we speak with plenty more being built.
-more Auckland / Hamilton / Tauranga centric deliveries ( as opposed to Chch and Nelson) with their higher pricing and margins.
- the constant juggernaut rise of village and care DMF ( and PAC ).

Then there’s the lessor drivers;
-High corporate cost increases of front footing the increase in build rate from 200 to 300 should likely stabilize.
- $2.5m of covid costs last year are non reoccurring, stated publicly twice by Brent.
- just maybe some accretive acquisition growth chucked in.( but who knows for sure on that one , I haven’t factored any).

notice I have no allowance for improved Govt care funding, that’s just a bonus if it was to magically happen.

Then there are several other tweaks to the positive.
On the potential negative , even if the HPI was to fall 20% peak to trough, that still gives OCA head room to maintain pricing. Whereas SUM has already booked a lot of those rises considering their own massive jump in embedded value last report, OCA has not. Just saying that a decent fall in HPI wont hurt OCA profit nearly ( if at all ) as much as the market seems to be factoring.

So throwing a SP around with a 3 in front would, while possible, mean everything has gone right, which we know from experience seldom does. I realistically expect $1.80-$2.40 based on PE 13-17 by mid 2024

Despite these calculatable “ facts”, the share price could well remain subdued for some time yet as we know the market really isn't interested in looking that far ahead.
This puppy will all but certainly have its day with handsome EPS gains and the SP has to follow.

[Maverick]

Thanks for your kind response Percy and JAK.
Its only fair to offer some of my work and opinions when you’ve got some really good posters out doing great contributions, such as Winner, Fiordland M, FERG( especially), BP and Baabaa. (Just to name a few on the threads I am personally interested in)

Thanks to all of the contributors ST can be of great value.
Lets hope others too will feel comfortable enough to add to the chat.

….and most defiantly yes to that beer(s)JAK, it’s date!

[RupertBear]

I would like to add my thanks to you as well Maverick. I really appreciate you sharing your work and opinions with us. You are a legend :)

[Beau]

Thanks Maverick always good to read your posts and many others on this thread nothing has changed long term with Oceania a bright future in safe hands with good Management and Board. Good things take time, it has had a lot going against it as have all retirement villages in recent times.

[winner69]

Ok, “let’s try to manage expectations “ a bit here Winner, let’s say upper SP range on a good day after 2024 FY could hit $2.99. But to be safe let’s think $2 for now.

There’s some nice shifts in OCAs drivers that have already happened to get us there,
the main ones are,
-The highly disruptive and profit reducing care suite building phase has now bowed and finally made way to the apartment phase ( on the freed up land). OCA now have a ton of the “money making apartments” delivered and are currently selling down as we speak with plenty more being built.
-more Auckland / Hamilton / Tauranga centric deliveries ( as opposed to Chch and Nelson) with their higher pricing and margins.
- the constant juggernaut rise of village and care DMF ( and PAC ).

Then there’s the lessor drivers;
-High corporate cost increases of front footing the increase in build rate from 200 to 300 should likely stabilize.
- $2.5m of covid costs last year are non reoccurring, stated publicly twice by Brent.
- just maybe some accretive acquisition growth chucked in.( but who knows for sure on that one , I haven’t factored any).

notice I have no allowance for improved Govt care funding, that’s just a bonus if it was to magically happen.

Then there are several other tweaks to the positive.
On the potential negative , even if the HPI was to fall 20% peak to trough, that still gives OCA head room to maintain pricing. Whereas SUM has already booked a lot of those rises considering their own massive jump in embedded value last report, OCA has not. Just saying that a decent fall in HPI wont hurt OCA profit nearly ( if at all ) as much as the market seems to be factoring.

So throwing a SP around with a 3 in front would, while possible, mean everything has gone right, which we know from experience seldom does. I realistically expect $1.80-$2.40 based on PE 13-17 by mid 2024

Despite these calculatable “ facts”, the share price could well remain subdued for some time yet as we know the market really isn't interested in looking that far ahead.
This puppy will all but certainly have its day with handsome EPS gains and the SP has to follow.

Hey Mav - not many downsides

Some commentators are saying the sector will need to face up to pay parity for aged care sector workers.

I've no idea what that might mean - have you thought about the (financial) impact

[Maverick]

Hey Mav - not many downsides

Some commentators are saying the sector will need to face up to pay parity for aged care sector workers.

I've no idea what that might mean - have you thought about the (financial) impact

Hey Winner,
Couple of things there,
First a bit of background, as much as the govt has throttled back the care funding to now be waffer thin, they have not reduced it further than 3 years ago on a ratio basis of just above break even. So this should be as bad as it gets.
I do believe the people in white coats behind the scene who set these rates know they cant reduce it any further.
Brent has stated care profit will still rise from here with no increase in DHB funding solely due to extra private charging ,( ie ever increasing DMF, pac fees). My maths agree.
So I see this is as bad as govt underfunding will get and despite this care profit will still rise. Watch next HY care numbers for confirmation.

Now onto something more specific to your post....RV nurses get paid about $20k p/a less than DHB nurses. Although they are officially told not to, DHBs have pilfered the rest homes to bolster their own ranks. ( my own sourced info, not from OCA ) Thus creating staffing issues at RVs. Only solution is to address the pay gap with increased funding of which the govt refuse to date.

This parity issue is not a threat to OCA as they already pay their nurses at the higher DHB rates.

Hope that answers what you were asking?

[winner69]

REINZ report HPI down 1.4% in July from June - last 3 months down 4.9% and an an annual basis now negative at 2.9%

At this rate some banks saying 20% decline in property prices is on track

This ialk of Oceania having a 'buffer' against falling property prices is a load of the proverbial - believe it if it makes feel easier though


https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Monthly%20Press%20Release%20Assets/Residential/07%20-%20July/REINZ%20Monthly%20HPI%20Report%20-%20July%202022.pdf

[justakiwi]

You have to be the most puzzling poster here :confused:



This ialk of Oceania having a 'buffer' against falling property prices is a load of the proverbial - believe it if it makes feel easier though

[Rawz]

REINZ report HPI down 1.4% in July from June - last 3 months down 4.9% and an an annual basis now negative at 2.9%

At this rate some banks saying 20% decline in property prices is on track

This ialk of Oceania having a 'buffer' against falling property prices is a load of the proverbial - believe it if it makes feel easier though


https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Monthly%20Press%20Release%20Assets/Residential/07%20-%20July/REINZ%20Monthly%20HPI%20Report%20-%20July%202022.pdf

Remember when the banks said house prices would drop 20% because of covid. Literally did the opposite LOL

[Rawz]

REINZ report HPI down 1.4% in July from June - last 3 months down 4.9% and an an annual basis now negative at 2.9%

At this rate some banks saying 20% decline in property prices is on track

This ialk of Oceania having a 'buffer' against falling property prices is a load of the proverbial - believe it if it makes feel easier though


https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Monthly%20Press%20Release%20Assets/Residential/07%20-%20July/REINZ%20Monthly%20HPI%20Report%20-%20July%202022.pdf

Hey Winner, people believe OCA have a buffer because of the deep NTA discount and the fact that OCA didnt raise their prices bugger all during the recent huge upswing in property prices. Is this not a fair assumption?

[winner69]

Hey Winner, people believe OCA have a buffer because of the deep NTA discount and the fact that OCA didnt raise their prices bugger all during the recent huge upswing in property prices. Is this not a fair assumption?

But then they may follow prices down now that’s the way the markets going

[justakiwi]

Maybe, but if that happens the other big players's projected income will be far more seriously impacted than OCA's will. I have no doubt whatsoever that OCA not raising their prices, was a strategic move, not "stupidity" as some here choose to believe.



But then they may follow prices down now that’s the way the markets going

[Rawz]

Maybe, but if that happens the other big players's projected income will be far more seriously impacted than OCA's will. I have no doubt whatsoever that OCA not raising their prices, was a strategic move, not "stupidity" as some here chose to believe.

You could be right JAK. Its not uncommon for businesses to sacrifice margins for a short period of time for various reasons.

[SailorRob]

You could be right JAK. Its not uncommon for businesses to sacrifice margins for a short period of time for various reasons.

Amazon did it for over 20 years

[winner69]

When you consider the large number of unsold units (a years worth?) I think 'strategic' is code for something is wrong and units aren't selling that well so we better discount them

[Biscuit]

When you consider the large number of unsold units (a years worth?) I think 'strategic' is code for something is wrong and units aren't selling that well so we better discount them

Yeah, I don't think OCA is the Amazon of the NZ retirement sector. Still good value at a dollar though.

[BlackPeter]

When you consider the large number of unsold units (a years worth?) I think 'strategic' is code for something is wrong and units aren't selling that well so we better discount them

Are you sure you understand OCA's business?

From what I see - they sell (mainly) care suites ... 61% of them as Basil / beagle loves to tell us. These care suites won't sell like hot crossed buns to people who don't need them (yet). That's the flip side of their business. On the bright side (for shareholders): There are always people who do need this service, and as soon as they do, they will take it, no matter what.

Given that supply is somewhat lumpy (you finish a handful of hundred units at the same time) but demand a constant flow ... it will always take a bit of time until they filled one of these new buildings.

This is the difference between a needs based service (like e.g. a hospital) and a cruise.

[bull....]

here's the graphical evidence of the sectors demise

peak in sector was when NZ was in lockdown level 4 sept 21 , when NZ alert levels ended it was all down hill and everyone new then there would be no more lockdowns

here the link to time lines

https://covid19.govt.nz/about-our-covid-19-response/history-of-the-covid-19-alert-system/


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[Mrbuyit]

Based on nothing other than my near even percentage movement between arv and oca buy in vs return percentage either ARV needs to drop back a little or OCA should be heading for 105 - 106.

[Biscuit]

here's the graphical evidence of the sectors demise....



**** Bull, you got an apostrophe in the right place!

[justakiwi]

Was that really necessary?


**** Bull, you got an apostrophe in the right place!

[Biscuit]

Was that really necessary?

Are you always looking for an argument JAK?

[justakiwi]

Never looking for one, but will always speak my mind if I see someone being a dick/disrespecting other posters. Especially for things like this because not everyone finds grammar/punctuation/spelling as easy as you and I might.


Are you always looking for an argument JAK?

[Biscuit]

Never looking for one, but will always speak my mind if I see someone being a dick/disrespecting other posters. Especially for things like this because not everyone finds grammar/punctuation/spelling as easy as us.

No JAK, you are just looking for an argument. Much of this thread is a series of petty arguments between you and various other posters.

[justakiwi]

If you say so buddy. The rep votes and positive PMs I received for said "arguments" would say otherwise.

Enjoy the rest of your day.


No JAK, you are just looking for an argument. Much of this thread is a series of petty arguments between you and various other posters.

[Biscuit]

If you say so buddy. The rep votes and positive PMs I received for said "arguments" would say otherwise.

Enjoy the rest of your day.

Thanks buddy, I hope your day is as pleasant and serene as mine.

[mike2020]

If you say so buddy. The rep votes and positive PMs I received for said "arguments" would say otherwise.

Enjoy the rest of your day.
I have to second that, if there is an argument to be found even if it isn't intended you are mad keen to start one. It puts people on the defensive and is totally counter productive.

[justakiwi]

If you disapprove of me and my posts, I suggest you add me to your ignore list.



I have to second that, if there is an argument to be found even if it isn't intended you are mad keen to start one. It puts people on the defensive and is totally counter productive.

[mike2020]

If you disapprove of me and my posts, I suggest you add me to your ignore list.

I don't have an ignore list and I have a much better idea :)

[Biscuit]

If you disapprove of me and my posts, I suggest you add me to your ignore list.

JAK, as an older, and perhaps wiser man, who has been on here for a long time, I hope you won't be offended if I gently offer you some advice. When I feel the urge to rage and vent, to spit and froth, I take a step back from the keyboard. I sit down and think of my grandchildren and my old dog. I centre myself on the room where I am. I take in a slow, deep, long breath right down into the depth of my lungs. Then breathe out, long and slowly. Deep breathing tells your body to calm, to release anxiety. Deep breathing is the basis of most meditation techniques. Breathe in, hold, then breathe out. Often it helps to make a deep, soothing, vibrating sound as you exhale. Any sound or word, it doesn't have to be religious or spiritual, something soothing. Breathe in "aaaahhhhhhhhhhhh"........Breathe out "BBBEEEGGGAAAHHHHHLLLL".... Keep doing that until you feel completely relaxed. Then return to the keyboard. You will find, I think, the community to be a kinder more caring place.

[justakiwi]

Not offended at all, but both you and your buddy mike2020, are now doing exactly what you both accused me of. Starting and continuing an argument, which "puts people on the defensive and is totally counter productive."

I find it interesting that your deep breathing advice will apparently help me find "the community to be a kinder more caring place," yet my comment that started all this, made out of kindness and consideration for a poster who was being made fun of by you, was deemed to be argumentative. Perhaps you should have taken your own advice before having a dig at someone's grammar. More than a little hypocritical on your part.

We are now done. Back to OCA.



JAK, as an older, and perhaps wiser man, who has been on here for a long time, I hope you won't be offended if I gently offer you some advice. When I feel the urge to rage and vent, to spit and froth, I take a step back from the keyboard. I sit down and think of my grandchildren and my old dog. I centre myself on the room where I am. I take in a slow, deep, long breath right down into the depth of my lungs. Then breathe out, long and slowly. Deep breathing tells your body to calm, to release anxiety. Deep breathing is the basis of most meditation techniques. Breathe in, hold, then breathe out. Often it helps to make a deep, soothing, vibrating sound as you exhale. Any sound or word, it doesn't have to be religious or spiritual, something soothing. Breathe in "aaaahhhhhhhhhhhh"........Breathe out "BBBEEEGGGAAAHHHHHLLLL".... Keep doing that until you feel completely relaxed. Then return to the keyboard. You will find, I think, the community to be a kinder more caring place.

[Biscuit]

Not offended at all, but both you and your buddy mike2020, are now doing exactly what you both accused me of. Starting and continuing an argument, which "puts people on the defensive and is totally counter productive."....



Oh, I thought I was your buddy? I'm a bit confused now, I'm pretty sure you started this argument? I'm absolutely certain Mike2020 didn't and I know I didn't, so that's odd. If I didn't start it and you didn't start it and Mike didn't start it, who did? Perhaps we should all agree to blame Bull, after all he has had suspiciously little to say about the whole thing. Anyway now that you have finished the argument for all of us, hopefully we can all go back to being buddies again?

[Snow Leopard]

I would like to invite the lot of you out to a bar and then bang your heads together.

Nice to see the share-price recovering a bit.
Still a way to go to fair value as far as I am concerned.

[Biscuit]

I would like to invite the lot of you out to a bar and then bang your heads together.....

It's not really logical to invite someone to a bar and then bang their heads together. Would we be having a drink before or after the head banging?

[RTM]

It's not really logical to invite someone to a bar and then bang their heads together. Would we be having a drink before or after the head banging?

Jeeeze…you really are argumentative ! Look at what u just wrote !

[Muse]

It's not really logical to invite someone to a bar and then bang their heads together. Would we be having a drink before or after the head banging?

The banging head comes the morning after. Oh ageing, how you rob me of small pleasures

[Curly]

OCA usually runs in tandem with ARV. It has a little way to go to catch ARV up.
OCA Overdue for a run you think?

[Biscuit]

The banging head comes the morning after. Oh ageing, how you rob me of small pleasures

As I've tried to impress, it's about being centred, moderation in all things. You don't need to go full tilt, passions flaring, indulging to the maximum. I used to go out and drink straight vodka, head banging until I was comatose. Now I am happy with a bottle of red sipped quietly over the evening. I think perhaps you and Snow Leopard should hit the bar together. I'm too mellow these days and JAK seems to be in a bit of a mood.

[Curly]

I think the closest OCA ever got to AVR was within .20c. We have been almost 7 months in a down trend. Craigs report average of all bear markets 15 months.
Shortest, 1 month, Feb 2020 - Mar 2020.

[bull....]

gezz just woke after me afternoon nap , all i can say is you too better get a room for the night , making up is so much fun

[mike2020]

It has often been quoted OCA and all the other's follow or mirror the housing market but OCA was heading south well before any property downturn. In the past I have watched it start to gain momentum a couple of moths prior to results, if the market is forward thinking you would have to expect OCA to start a gradual move up between now and the results period.

[Baa_Baa]

It has often been quoted OCA and all the other's follow or mirror the housing market but OCA was heading south well before any property downturn. In the past I have watched it start to gain momentum a couple of moths prior to results, if the market is forward thinking you would have to expect OCA to start a gradual move up between now and the results period.

Maybe have another look. All the listed RV's turned over about the same time late August, early September 2021, pretty much exactly the same time the Housing Price Index turned over. This isn't a unique OCA thing.

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14058

[winner69]

Benjamin Graham saying often touted '.... in the short run, the market is like a voting machine but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine' brings comfort to many .... esp the frustrated patient ones

Apparently even Graham didn't hold stocks forever waiting for that day when the market finally recognises 'intrinsic value'

Many disciples of Graham have come to the conclusion that one should set a limit on their holding period in advance so they don't keep hanging in there because one day it'll come right (weigh correctly). They keep reminding themselves that "If a stock hasn't met your objective by the end of the second calendar year from the time of purchase, sell it regardless of price."

Seems a sensible approach

[alokdhir]

Benjamin Graham saying often touted '.... in the short run, the market is like a voting machine but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine' brings comfort to many .... esp the frustrated patient ones

Apparently even Graham didn't hold stocks forever waiting for that day when the market finally recognises 'intrinsic value'

Many disciples of Graham have come to the conclusion that one should set a limit on their holding period in advance so they don't keep hanging in there because one day it'll come right (weigh correctly). They keep reminding themselves that "If a stock hasn't met your objective by the end of the second calendar year from the time of purchase, sell it regardless of price."

Seems a sensible approach

It should cut both ways ...sometimes voting machine phenomena favours the holders ...so they should be selling then also ...like when FPH reached $ 37 and HGH $ 2.59 etc etc ...Did holders sell then ?? Then why only have limited holding patience when its against holders .

All stocks do get over valued and undervalued but your purpose of holding a stock is just not its value at any particular time but what its doing to your investing strategy and overall financial plan

[winner69]

It should cut both ways ...sometimes voting machine phenomena favours the holders ...so they should be selling then also ...like when FPH reached $ 37 and HGH $ 2.59 etc etc ...Did holders sell then ?? Then why only have limited holding patience when its against holders .

All stocks do get over valued and undervalued but your purpose of holding a stock is just not its value at any particular time but what its doing to your investing strategy and overall financial plan

Alokdhir …when fph and Hgh reached those dizzy heights the market was in voting mode …like at a beauty contest some say

For a ‘value investor’ it was the time to sell those two stocks ….the value investing criteria (the Graham way) had been met …one had bought ‘value’ and that had been achieved so long a value stock at those prices

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir …when fph and Hgh reached those dizzy heights the market was in voting mode …like at a beauty contest some say

For a ‘value investor’ it was the time to sell those two stocks ….the value investing criteria (the Graham way) had been met …one had bought ‘value’ and that had been achieved so long a value stock at those prices

I know of many many very savvy investors like yourself who did not sell ...Mr B also didnt sell his HGH holding ...lol

But thats exactly the point I was making that we should sell also and hold also depending on our objectives . But we keep holding winners also and losers also

There is a great saying in market ...." Add to your winners and loose the losers ...." Mr Buffet keeps adding to Apple ...didnt sell any at the top so far

[Curly]

Benjamin Graham saying often touted '.... in the short run, the market is like a voting machine but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine' brings comfort to many .... esp the frustrated patient ones

Apparently even Graham didn't hold stocks forever waiting for that day when the market finally recognises 'intrinsic value'

Many disciples of Graham have come to the conclusion that one should set a limit on their holding period in advance so they don't keep hanging in there because one day it'll come right (weigh correctly). They keep reminding themselves that "If a stock hasn't met your objective by the end of the second calendar year from the time of purchase, sell it regardless of price."

Seems a sensible approach

Did exactly that, if only I hadn’t on so many shares would have been on easy street now.
Life however brings up many and various financial needs causing you to cash in. Always easy in hind sight.

[Biscuit]

Did exactly that, if only I hadn’t on so many shares would have been on easy street now.
Life however brings up many and various financial needs causing you to cash in. Always easy in hind sight.

Yes, its easy to point at recent high and say you should have sold. The number of times I sold down "over-priced" FPH shares, I could kick myself in retrospect. Have never regretted selling a crappy company though. For me, I focus more on what I think about the company. Own good companies and stay away from bad companies and don't worry about the share price so much. OCA seems like an ok company with good growth prospects. I'll sell when I think that is no longer the case.

[limmy]

Well spoken !

Yes, its easy to point at recent high and say you should have sold. The number of times I sold down "over-priced" FPH shares, I could kick myself in retrospect. Have never regretted selling a crappy company though. For me, I focus more on what I think about the company. Own good companies and stay away from bad companies and don't worry about the share price so much. OCA seems like an ok company with good growth prospects. I'll sell when I think that is no longer the case.

[bull....]

Reserve Bank now predicting up to 20% house price fall from peak

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129614815/reserve-bank-now-predicting-up-to-20-house-price-fall-from-peak

[X630]

Hey team,

Is anyone with accounting knowledge able to explain why development margins aren't included in reported net profit after tax already?

Could it be because they are accounted for in fair value increases?

14069

[Snow Leopard]

Hey team,

Is anyone with accounting knowledge able to explain why development margins aren't included in reported net profit after tax already?

Could it be because they are accounted for in fair value increases?

14069

I believe you have answered your own question :mellow:

[Ferg]

Hey team,

Is anyone with accounting knowledge able to explain why development margins aren't included in reported net profit after tax already?

Could it be because they are accounted for in fair value increases?

Development margins (and realised resale gains) will not be found in the traditional P&L. This method is used by all RV operators.

Development margin is determined by comparing the value of the ORA sold to the cost of completing the construction of that asset. This happens outside of the P&L and Balance Sheet. Likewise realised resale gains are also not to be found in the traditional P&L and Balance Sheet - these are determined by comparing an ORA sale to the value of the previous ORA sale for that same asset.

This all happens off the books. This is why the RV companies then present an "underlying earnings" P&L which takes into account these off book values and to reverse out anything else that either is not underlying, or gets in the way of the resale gain/development margin calculation.

The RV then periodically reviews its entire portfolio of assets; some of which were recently sold, most were not resold recently but are still occupied by residents, some may be recently vacated and others are newly built and are unsold. With the help of a valuer, and taking into consideration the subset of properties that had an ORA sale and a bunch of rules around occupation, the RV then revalues it's portfolio.

You might ask why do these realised gains not appear in the P&L?

The RV never actually sells the asset - they sell the right to use it hence you won't see any revenues or gains in the traditional P&L (aka "comprehensive income statement"). If you follow these simplistic journal entries it make sense:

1) Build the asset:
Dr Investment Property (Balance Sheet)
Cr Bank/Payables/Loans (B/S)

2) Sell the ORA:
Dr Debtors/Bank (B/S)
Cr ORA Liability (B/S)

Off Book:
Development Margin = ORA Liability - Investment Property Cost for that asset
Realised Resale Gain = Latest ORA Liability - Previous ORA Liability for the same asset

3) Year End Revaluation:
Dr Investment Property (B/S)
Cr Fair Value Adjustment (P&L)

That is basically it. So the development margins and resale gains are (sort of) a subset of the fair value adjustment . They are actually more of an input into the revaluation process. They are not a transaction that hits the P&L when an ORA is sold. Weird I know. Given the asset was not sold, but the right to use it was, it is actually a financial arrangement and non-taxable. Hence the reason we see profits and dividends from RV's but there are no imputation credits given the low (or no) taxes being paid.

Management Fees is a whole other beast which can be explained another time.

Hopefully that helps.

[Maverick]

Development margins (and realised resale gains) will not be found in the traditional P&L. This method is used by all RV operators.

Development margin is determined by comparing the value of the ORA sold to the cost of completing the construction of that asset. This happens outside of the P&L and Balance Sheet. Likewise realised resale gains are also not to be found in the traditional P&L and Balance Sheet - these are determined by comparing an ORA sale to the value of the previous ORA sale for that same asset.

This all happens off the books. This is why the RV companies then present an "underlying earnings" P&L which takes into account these off book values and to reverse out anything else that either is not underlying, or gets in the way of the resale gain/development margin calculation.

The RV then periodically reviews its entire portfolio of assets; some of which were recently sold, most were not resold recently but are still occupied by residents, some may be recently vacated and others are newly built and are unsold. With the help of a valuer, and taking into consideration the subset of properties that had an ORA sale and a bunch of rules around occupation, the RV then revalues it's portfolio.

You might ask why do these realised gains not appear in the P&L?

The RV never actually sells the asset - they sell the right to use it hence you won't see any revenues or gains in the traditional P&L (aka "comprehensive income statement"). If you follow these simplistic journal entries it make sense:

1) Build the asset:
Dr Investment Property (Balance Sheet)
Cr Bank/Payables/Loans (B/S)

2) Sell the ORA:
Dr Debtors/Bank (B/S)
Cr ORA Liability (B/S)

Off Book:
Development Margin = ORA Liability - Investment Property Cost for that asset
Realised Resale Gain = Latest ORA Liability - Previous ORA Liability for the same asset

3) Year End Revaluation:
Dr Investment Property (B/S)
Cr Fair Value Adjustment (P&L)

That is basically it. So the development margins and resale gains are (sort of) a subset of the fair value adjustment . They are actually more of an input into the revaluation process. They are not a transaction that hits the P&L when an ORA is sold. Weird I know. Given the asset was not sold, but the right to use it was, it is actually a financial arrangement and non-taxable. Hence the reason we see profits and dividends from RV's but there are no imputation credits given the low (or no) taxes being paid.

Management Fees is a whole other beast which can be explained another time.

Hopefully that helps.
Outstanding work Ferg, Thanks for the expert run down.
Obviously this "arrangement" assists the cash flow for OCA at the company level but the IRD dont miss out on the dividend part that hits my bank account.

[Ferg]

Outstanding work Ferg, Thanks for the expert run down.
Obviously this "arrangement" assists the cash flow for OCA at the company level but the IRD dont miss out on the dividend part that hits my bank account.

You're welcome! And too right.....the IRD never miss out.....they get you one way or another.

I can't wait to see the financial impact of these "arrangements" with the sales of the St Heliers development and the Remuera Rise acquisition. I imagine pricing for both will match the locale and prospective clientele which bodes well for future DMF. I like OCA's target marketing and boutique approach. There is nothing "exclusive" about being in a village of 500.....

[X630]

Thanks Ferg, really appreciate that explanation.

I was having a hard time understanding how the underlying earnings page in every annual report looks so profitable (when underlying earnings is meant to exclude capital gains) whereas the P&L statement says the company is losing money if you remove fair value gains (eg the screenshots below). The idea that a lot of the income doesn't show up in P&L helps to explain it.

On a side note: I'm still a bit wary of taking underlying earnings at face value given they add back care suite depreciation (removing this from underlying profit decreases UP by ~15% to 48.3m). For my own profitability models, I'm removing care suite depreciation from underlying earnings.


1407914080

[Snow Leopard]

Whilst my answer was not totally correct it was simple.

Ferg's answer is not totally correct either and has confused the heck out of everyone.

So just read the accounts including the notes carefully.
Follow the cash flow.

[Maverick]

Got to love the SUM report that came out today. The commentary on the industry experience is simply outstanding.

Their build margin of 28.1% for their main product of villas is worth consideration. This must be almost a record margin and they achieved it in such difficult circumstances such as skyrocketing construction costs , labour and materials shortages……and in a falling property market.

So back to OCA…..
SUM has achieved this high margin while they are able to produce and pre sell their villa product 4 -5 times faster than a typical OCA apartment block. SUM are working far more with current prices of materials and labour. Whereas OCA has a very slow build time /sell down time that spends 5-7 years to being sold down (generalised) . OCA is currently sitting on a large number of near finished deliveries and currently have a significant amount of new apartments available to sell . Much of these costs already paid for years ago.
What I’m trying to say Is OCAs new build costs are going to be more historic than SUMs . If SUM can achieve such high margins in these modern times then that bodes very well for OCAs margins for their upcoming new sale margins.

Consider how much OCA would have to pay for the Helier now if they had to buy that land and start building on it today. (They broke dirt about 4 years ago and will be delivered this Autumn). Not a single sale has been possible yet so ALL of the last boom will be captured in those 79 new apartments next year.
OCAs Achilles heel for share holders has been how slow it has been to transform its old buildings to new but this has accidentally become a positive as it will capture the modern sell prices that have significantly risen during those long years, while a portion on costs are from years ago. They will capture this value gain on the first new sale rather than the first resale.

SUMs comments and high margins are a very strong indicator of what’s ahead for OCA as it is now well into its apartment delivery and sell down phase.

[bull....]

why i see what ferg's saying i dont really agree ferg's underlying p&l should be relied upon solely as the company publishes these statement's on what it believe's are true figures of accounting profit but these figure's can be adjusted as company see's fit to a degree.
might pay to use in comparison with actual statements as PT has said

[Ferg]

In fairness I'm not saying the underlying P&L should be relied upon. I'm not sure where you got that from bull? But yes there are multiple points at which estimates can be used.

From the last annual report:

Resale Gains:

Resale Gain – Underlying Profit
The Directors’ estimate of realised gains on resales of ORA units and care suites (i.e. the difference between the incoming resident’s ORA licence payment and the ORA licence payment previously received from the outgoing resident)....

Development Margin:

Development Margin – Underlying Profit
The Directors’ estimate of realised development margin is calculated as the ORA licence payment received, and receivable, in relation to the first sale of new ORA units and care suites ... {snip} ... less the development costs associated with developing the ORA units and care suites

Also, the determination of underlying profit from NPAT:

Net Profit after Tax:
Remove Change in fair value of investment property
{snip}
Add back Directors’ estimate of realised gains on the resale of units and care suites sold under an ORA
Add back Directors’ estimate of realised development margin on the first sale of new ORA units or care suites
{snip}
= Underlying Profit

[bull....]

back under a buck :scared: .... again

maybe on the summerset news. wonder how discounting will effect there cashflow

[winner69]

back under a buck :scared: .... again

maybe on the summerset news. wonder how discounting will effect there cashflow

Jeez …market discounting OCA …down to 97 cents

[SailorRob]

After joking with a mate that at this rate OCA would take until 2040 to reach $2, I decided to take a look at what this scenario could look like as an investment.

I was stunned to find that it would be a very decent investment and in all likelihood beat the returns you would get from putting your money with 95% of professional investors over the same 18 year time period. If the shares go to $2 now it will destroy your returns.


From here to $2 in 18 years, the share price would produce a compounded 4.1% return. If dividends kept in lockstep (so the yield remained the same and the dividend also grew at 4.1%) and you paid 25% tax on the dividend and then reinvested into the company at the prevailing share price you would compound your investment at 7.92%.


Now if the share price stayed at 97c for the first 10 years and then grew steadily to $2 by the 18th year, you'd compound at 8.75%, but if the share price stayed at 97c for 17 years before jumping to $2, then you'd compound at a phenomenal 9.5%. This would turn a million into 5.5 million. At the original 7.92% it would be 4.41 million.

Obviously the share price staying static while dividends grow is unlikley, but this shows the effect of having a share price go nowhere. The longer it stays lower the better and you can of course commit external capital.

Given the choice 999 of 1000 investors would want and pray for only $3.46 million and reject the $5.5 million, throwing away 2 million dollars as they prey for the share price to go up NOW which would mean only getting a compound 6.92% return.

[Baa_Baa]

After joking with a mate that at this rate OCA would take until 2040 to reach $2, I decided to take a look at what this scenario could look like as an investment.

I was stunned to find that it would be a very decent investment and in all likelihood beat the returns you would get from putting your money with 95% of professional investors over the same 18 year time period. If the shares go to $2 now it will destroy your returns.


From here to $2 in 18 years, the share price would produce a compounded 4.1% return. If dividends kept in lockstep (so the yield remained the same and the dividend also grew at 4.1%) and you paid 25% tax on the dividend and then reinvested into the company at the prevailing share price you would compound your investment at 7.92%.


Now if the share price stayed at 97c for the first 10 years and then grew steadily to $2 by the 18th year, you'd compound at 8.75%, but if the share price stayed at 97c for 17 years before jumping to $2, then you'd compound at a phenomenal 9.5%. This would turn a million into 5.5 million. At the original 7.92% it would be 4.41 million.

Obviously the share price staying static while dividends grow is unlikley, but this shows the effect of having a share price go nowhere. The longer it stays lower the better and you can of course commit external capital.

Given the choice 999 of 1000 investors would want and pray for only $3.46 million and reject the $5.5 million, throwing away 2 million dollars as they prey for the share price to go up NOW which would mean only getting a compound 6.92% return.

Maths is a brilliant thing, it shows how value investing over time has little to do with what the market prices the company at right now, except what the current SP discount to long term value is. This might not be the only value play in the market, but it is one of them imo. And, I think the market will re-rate the SP (capital value of the company) long before the value investor thesis plays out, which just adds to the attraction through capital gains which the value investors are unlikely to realise as they don't typically buy appreciating SP, or sell for capital gains unless price exceeds time value (or something goes badly wrong with the company). Though a SP boost does dilute the yield on a cap value basis, that assumes you're buying the increased SP, which value investors aren't. Best to accumulate a decent position at the lowest SP's you can get, before the market decides they've been caught out waiting for a rising SP which it seems most here are focused on.

Thanks SailerRob.

[Habits]

Me like a lot of others will be too old by 2040, though I am expecting to live until 2060 :t_up::D

[Waltzing]

Chart looks terrible.

The way to turn this around is to open up the airport gates and bring in a few million Ukrainains to help with everything from IT to Farming.

That should put a base or Turbo charge house prices and OCA will hit 2 dollars in no time....

When and if FFFF (Fatty FO FO IA from FIJI) opens up immigration all problems solved.

Might run out of Land...

[clearasmud]

Yes there's plenty of health gurus to coach you on YouTube.

[bull....]

After joking with a mate that at this rate OCA would take until 2040 to reach $2, I decided to take a look at what this scenario could look like as an investment.

I was stunned to find that it would be a very decent investment and in all likelihood beat the returns you would get from putting your money with 95% of professional investors over the same 18 year time period. If the shares go to $2 now it will destroy your returns.


From here to $2 in 18 years, the share price would produce a compounded 4.1% return. If dividends kept in lockstep (so the yield remained the same and the dividend also grew at 4.1%) and you paid 25% tax on the dividend and then reinvested into the company at the prevailing share price you would compound your investment at 7.92%.


Now if the share price stayed at 97c for the first 10 years and then grew steadily to $2 by the 18th year, you'd compound at 8.75%, but if the share price stayed at 97c for 17 years before jumping to $2, then you'd compound at a phenomenal 9.5%. This would turn a million into 5.5 million. At the original 7.92% it would be 4.41 million.

Obviously the share price staying static while dividends grow is unlikley, but this shows the effect of having a share price go nowhere. The longer it stays lower the better and you can of course commit external capital.

Given the choice 999 of 1000 investors would want and pray for only $3.46 million and reject the $5.5 million, throwing away 2 million dollars as they prey for the share price to go up NOW which would mean only getting a compound 6.92% return.

nice if it happened , but i for one cant see oca compounding div,s
OCA is a great trading stock so if I trade it sucessfully , capture all the div's and reinvest the proceeds all the time back in i would actually make a lot more than simply buy and hold.

[SailorRob]

nice if it happened , but i for one cant see oca compounding div,s
OCA is a great trading stock so if I trade it sucessfully , capture all the div's and reinvest the proceeds all the time back in i would actually make a lot more than simply buy and hold.

Yes and you would also produce returns that would put you in a class among the very best investors in the world.

[bull....]

Yes and you would also produce returns that would put you in a class among the very best investors in the world.

thats the plan

[SailorRob]

thats the plan

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

Trying to trade in and out of stocks like that, let us know how it goes.

[Balance]

Housing supply/demand dynamics skewed towards over-supply in 2023.

House prices to fall further, according to Kiwibank economists.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/117315/kiwibank-economists-now-see-house-prices-falling-13-end-year-followed-slow-recovery

[RTM]

Chart looks terrible.

The way to turn this around is to open up the airport gates and bring in a few million Ukrainains to help with everything from IT to Farming.

That should put a base or Turbo charge house prices and OCA will hit 2 dollars in no time....

When and if FFFF (Fatty FO FO IA from FIJI) opens up immigration all problems solved.

Might run out of Land...

We really gotta think a bit more carefully about the kind of country we want to live in I think.

[bull....]

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

Trying to trade in and out of stocks like that, let us know how it goes.

obviously im talking in a perfect world just like you were. As in your perfect example you forget to mention a flat yr or 2 of say no div's ( highly possible ) would signicantly effect the return at the end of your time frame. just like a loss in my trading example would effect my end result

[SailorRob]

obviously im talking in a perfect world just like you were. As in your perfect example you forget to mention a flat yr or 2 of say no div's ( highly possible ) would signicantly effect the return at the end of your time frame. just like a loss in my trading example would effect my end result

I do not think that OCA reaching $2 by 2040 is me talking a perfect world. It is almost impossible to imagine such a situation, nobody in their right minds thinks that it would take until 2040 to reach $2. The entire point of my post was that under a scenario that would make most people vomit their breakfast, you could still do very well.

2 years of no dividend would make very very little difference to my scenario, but a couple of bad trades will make a big difference.

[winner69]

Tony Alexander says house prices will start increasing soon ….maybe even +10% in 2023

That should help OCA’s coffers

[Balance]

Tony Alexander says house prices will start increasing soon ….maybe even +10% in 2023

That should help OCA’s coffers

Meanwhile, house prices continue to drop with no signs of stabilising.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/home-values-fall-below-1m-as-downturn-accelerates-in-august/Y5GSUQQAZR4OD7FXWWZ22DP7NY/

As an aside, I was talking to one real estate agent trying to pre-sell some developments in South Auckland for developers. Not one single serious inquiry in 2 months despite the developers dropping their prices from $950,000 to $850,000.

A year ago, he would have pre-sold the whole lot in a weekend but he now has the additional job/problem of trying to find secondary buyers for the pre-sold units from the last year!


FOMO has truly been replaced by FOPTM. :eek2:

[bull....]

Meanwhile, house prices continue to drop with no signs of stabilising.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/home-values-fall-below-1m-as-downturn-accelerates-in-august/Y5GSUQQAZR4OD7FXWWZ22DP7NY/

As an aside, I was talking to one real estate agent trying to pre-sell some developments in South Auckland for developers. Not one single serious inquiry in 2 months despite the developers dropping their prices from $950,000 to $850,000.

A year ago, he would have pre-sold the whole lot in a weekend but he now has the additional job/problem of trying to find secondary buyers for the pre-sold units from the last year!


FOMO has truly been replaced by FOPTM. :eek2:

its getting bad in aus to. i know oca dont have anything going on there but others in sector do

Since peaking in March 2021, dwelling approvals have fallen by 29 per cent as of the latest data for June this year. After hitting an all-time record high in June 2021, dwelling commencements are following approvals down, falling 27.5 per cent as of the March quarter.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/worrying-sign-australian-construction-industry-is-heading-for-a-bust/news-story/8d26b099a7ee535c0775a11ff0e69c31

[676767]

Meanwhile, house prices continue to drop with no signs of stabilising.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/home-values-fall-below-1m-as-downturn-accelerates-in-august/Y5GSUQQAZR4OD7FXWWZ22DP7NY/

As an aside, I was talking to one real estate agent trying to pre-sell some developments in South Auckland for developers. Not one single serious inquiry in 2 months despite the developers dropping their prices from $950,000 to $850,000.

A year ago, he would have pre-sold the whole lot in a weekend but he now has the additional job/problem of trying to find secondary buyers for the pre-sold units from the last year!


FOMO has truly been replaced by FOPTM. :eek2:

Watch developers pile into Kiwibuild... They just raised their price limits to $865,000 and govt guarantees the sale of the whole development (i.e if no one applies, govt buys it)

[thegreatestben]

Watch developers pile into Kiwibuild... They just raised their price limits to $865,000 and govt guarantees the sale of the whole development (i.e if no one applies, govt buys it)

That's untrue regarding sale of the whole development.
The underwrite is agreed on specific homes which most of the time are only a portion of the total delivery in a development that must be sold to KiwiBuild eligible buyers and the agreed buy price is at a discount.

Unsure what the market is going to be like as market values meet parity with price caps but all homes for the last 18 months have sold out in ballots as buying off the plans.

[676767]

That's untrue regarding sale of the whole development.
The underwrite is agreed on specific homes which most of the time are only a portion of the total delivery in a development that must be sold to KiwiBuild eligible buyers and the agreed buy price is at a discount.

Apologies, i didn't word that well. Yea they guarantee the sale of the Kiwibuild and Kainga Ora portion of the development



all homes for the last 18 months have sold out in ballots as buying off the plans.

This was at the old $650,000 price cap, They don't look like such great value anymore at $865,000
I agree, it will be interesting to see how many applicants there are to the new ones just released.

Anyway... back to OCA

[ronaldson]

I live in West Auckland. Almost every edition of the NZ Herald, Sunday Star and our local Western Leader newspaper delivered to our home comes with a glossy leaflet/brochure from one or other of the (many) retirement villages in our wider area touting the availability of villas, apartments, serviced apartments etc. In more than a decade I have never known such a cumulative blizzard of advertising, and I am seriously starting to wonder if sales have got much harder to achieve despite the demographic tailwind. The build rate of the larger players is at least as high as it has ever been, but the general housing market has clearly entered a price decline/lower sales volume phase not encountered in NZ for quite a long time and it could be showing!

[bull....]

and summerset doing specials on there units all add's up to competition is heating up in a slowing market

[ronaldson]

And todays NZ Herald says the Bupa business is under review for divestment, with falling profits from a squeeze in margins. This Government has definitely not invested in the aged care sector so not surprising really. Regular reports of smaller owner operated rest homes all over NZ closing because can't find staff and care subsidies inadequate. Another Andrew Little failure.

[Balance]

And todays NZ Herald says the Bupa business is under review for divestment, with falling profits from a squeeze in margins. This Government has definitely not invested in the aged care sector so not surprising really. Regular reports of smaller owner operated rest homes all over NZ closing because can't find staff and care subsidies inadequate. Another Andrew Little failure.

Article suggests Oceania could be a bidder!?

Could be a capital raising in the offing. 🥵

[bull....]

Article suggests Oceania could be a bidder!?

Could be a capital raising in the offing. 掠

anythings possible but the forsyth's guy didnt think oca would be able to pull it off unless it was a deeply discounted issue is the way i read it

[Ggcc]

And todays NZ Herald says the Bupa business is under review for divestment, with falling profits from a squeeze in margins. This Government has definitely not invested in the aged care sector so not surprising really. Regular reports of smaller owner operated rest homes all over NZ closing because can't find staff and care subsidies inadequate. Another Andrew Little failure.
The current government have totally lost the plot. They have raised caregivers wages in the aged care sector and it was necessary, now do the same for doctors, nurses and specialists in the aged care sector for better longterm incentives for companies to build more villages.

[Balance]

anythings possible but the forsyth's guy didnt think oca would be able to pull it off unless it was a deeply discounted issue is the way i read it

The bigger the entity, the bigger the rewards for the directors and managers.

Bupa is an excellent opportunity for a relatively smaller player like Oceania or Arvida to bulk up.

A heavily discounted rights issue (as long as it is pro-rata) would allow a player like Oceania to raise the necessary capital.

Trying to build up facilities is a much longer road to take.

[winner69]

Another month passes by and this long term trend continues ..... never before has the OCA share price as the %age of the SUM share price been so low.

Sorry but I have a morbid fascination with long term trends that seem to defy hype etc .... but as they say in trend theory to break such long term trends a real shock to the norm has to occur .... and I have difficulty in seeing any shocks (either with OCA or SUM) coming in the near to medium term.

One thing logic says it can't continue to zero ..... but if say if OCA got taken over soon we'll never find out what the bottom is

[winner69]

Don't get me wrong with that beautiful chart

I'm not deriding OCA or calling OCA a dog - after all it started life at 79 cents and has paid a divie every year

All the chart is showing is that SUM has performed better since OCA listed

[Baa_Baa]

Don't get me wrong with that beautiful chart

I'm not deriding OCA or calling OCA a dog - after all it started life at 79 cents and has paid a divie every year

All the chart is showing is that SUM has performed better since OCA listed

SP comparison by itself is less interesting than factoring in net dividend yields + unrealised capital SP gains. With SUM being the worst net dividend in the listed RV sector at 1.67% and OCA the best at 4.40%, that might change the picture a bit. RYM is 2.48% and ARV 3.62%.

[tim23]

The current government have totally lost the plot. They have raised caregivers wages in the aged care sector and it was necessary, now do the same for doctors, nurses and specialists in the aged care sector for better longterm incentives for companies to build more villages.
Your comments seems to make no sense- how do you blame the government?

[Panda-NZ-]

People would be leaving in droves if wages stayed the same.

[Ggcc]

Your comments seems to make no sense- how do you blame the government?
The government/DHBs set the wages for the retirement sector and the villages have been negotiating for the government to increase care subsidy payment for the DHBs for ages, to pass onto villages. They are running behind on actual costs and have been for a while.

Add that the sector is struggling for nurses, doctors plus other skilled workers and labours advisors have been suggesting they should entering into nz during Covid. In short I believe the thing stopping the retirement sector staff from getting increases in wages is legislation which can only be solved by those writing the legislation.

[Maverick]

I've been saying for a while now that there is a large increase in underlying profit coming in over the next 2 years. I've also posted that the recent SUM result was top class but I still wont switch any OCA to SUM despite how impressive that was. I question myself given SUM`s excellent CAGR and OCAs almost nil CAGR.

So I thought it reasonable to back up why I think like I do . Below is a key graph as to the main driver why things are about to start getting really good for OCA in the next 18 months.
This graph is actual apartment sales and actual apartment deliveries. It does not include care suites, they are their own quandary , nor villas of which OCA have negligible interest in at this point.
I have included FY23 expected deliveries ( OCA always delivers on time) but of course we do not yet know the actual sales so they cannot be included. You don't have to be a genius though, to fill in those blanks for yourself.
What this graph simply demonstrates is the lumpy deliveries of apartment volume and then to see how the sales flow as a result of those deliveries. To me , actual sales simply look like a kind of 18 months moving average of the deliveries. While I have detailed delivery dates, amounts, locations, prices and covid lockdown periods blah blah blah...… those details are unnecessary for this post.

What we can see is that actual delivery numbers have ramped up as expected and as promised. This is logical as they have had to get their care suites side of the business tidied away first so that apartments can be built afterwards on the cleared land. I've always said the apartments are the real money maker. We can see apartment deliveries have nearly doubled over the last 1.5 years and are still increasing.

Remember also that these numbers are just volumes and do not consider new build margins or sales price. So now consider that the deliveries in FY23 are going to be at the high end of historical sales margins and EXTREME high end of pricing also. Yes, This is predominantly “ The Helier”.

So what we have coming in the next 18 months and beyond are high delivery , high prices, and high margin.
There must be some term for this like “ mother of all golden crosses“ or “ holy grail of anything retail” when this rare trilogy occurrence happens and how it impacts the bottom line.
While I'm making simple generalizations you can be assured I've done the detail into the nth degree.

While this is only one aspect to the many with OCA currently in play, this is the most dominant at this time. While it is easy to focus on the “rampant care costs”, govt underfunding and falling HPI ,it risks missing seeing the bigger picture and masking what's really happening of greater importance.

While there are also multiple income streams to the OCA story , the volume of apartments being delivered and sold now ( and especially where) will be the key to the next few years of unprecedented upswing in OCAs profits. Another beauty of this model is these profits are sustainable as they turn into DMF`s coupled with an already increased build rate around the country to continue the momentum forward.

So what we have currently is a company that has demonstrated no bottom line underlying earnings growth and been punished accordingly to a market value 30% below NTA. If my math is true , and it is, then this apparent dog of a company will dumbfound the market with significant growth in a fairly short time frame.
It will go from the ugly duckling to the most popular kid in the classroom.

All these fancy new builds are just giant money pits until they are finally finished before the first sale can be made. This takes years and years but we are about to begin that phase

Large real EPS growth, a large increase in dividend and then the fickle market popularity increase on top of that will reward patient investors handsomely.

SUM have already said" the demand is untethered to the housing market" so while the short term investors are worried about care costs and falling HPI, the share price has become beaten down so excessively that has created a significant opportunity few understand. The one caveat is that one has at least a 1- 2 year horizon.

So there you go , despite SUMS stellar record and recent 1HY result, that's why I'm not selling OCA to buy SUM.

Finally……here's the graph. This is one part of what I'm trying to say….

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/9PmuiaUwG3uC1RwXjzx1D7iYx7qHC6qLic4NiYF1ei7sqIo37w iTm8frlL33-G6tpuRk5Ex6dyay8VeADuWXKhA3ehcBr9M-9FHS1kSXQJcovs-murzIHiqG0C1hKEQCzN7RPBq_UfhrsTvwFzgz83JlQg4cRRc7C d8xwMswEhhoyaiyQm-NJZqDdw

[nztx]

SFA of a dividend 4.4c pa 4.4% - plus suck up the 33% tax deducted on assessment

Profit = basically all creative revaluations and gains - doesn't it for many in the Sector

What's inflation running at now ?

4.4% + Imputation credits looks far more attractive any day of the week .. NZM or STU
might even double that too with cream on top ;)


Or if you play your cards right NTL might even yield 50% before broker fees on a bounce with no tax credits
and probable taxable trade for the punt .. but still better than OCA

[nztx]

Now integrated into previous post

[Grimy]

Thanks for your post Maverick. Appreciated as always.

[winner69]

Hi Maverick -- the blue line will follow the red line

Based on the last few years average selling prices of apartments and your comments about where a lot of the new apartments are it could be that the average could well go over $1.3M in the next few years (it wasn't far off that a couple of years ago)

here's the average selling prices over the last year or so .... geographical mix a driver but this will be favourable the next year or so

[Baa_Baa]

The Heliers will skew the sales revenue significantly as they're likely to be in the $2m-$4m price range, and as Mac says, the DMF is recurring. OCA have a lot of property coming this FY and next.

Backward looking analysis only goes a small way to understanding the investment merits of OCA going forwards.

[Maverick]

Hi Maverick -- the blue line will follow the red line

Based on the last few years average selling prices of apartments and your comments about where a lot of the new apartments are it could be that the average could well go over $1.3M in the next few years (it wasn't far off that a couple of years ago)

Damn you're good Winner with your instinct!
FWIW I break down areas , deliveries , average housing prices in the local area and it all back tests pretty well....So your $1.3m in FY2024 is pretty close to what I've calculated, well done.

BUT,....there's always a But...FY 2023 wont see this climb in average price.. its only when Helier starts selling 2024- 2025.

There is an upside risk that their presales efforts will net them some sales in 2023 .Historically , its always the highly priced ones that sell first with the highest margin. Should we get some early sales this FY that will be a very pleasant surprise to the bottom line indeed.

It is actually highly possible. As it is not well known that these deliveries do not actually happen on one magic day as we normally experience in the domestic housing world. Rather they are progressively finished in order to manage tradesmen work loads- imaging carpet layers and electricians all falling over each other to get 79 units finished at one go. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's not a cheeky unit or 2 already finished at Helier right now. So yeah , I'm pretty confident some sales will actually occur this FY23 and it will be all bonus to my expectations if it does happens.

BTW , thanks for posting that JLL report white paper too Winner, most appreciated.

[winner69]

From recent posts sums up OCA as a great investment for the future -

Backward looking analysis only goes a small way to understanding the investment merits of OCA going forwards.(said BaaBaa)

Large real EPS growth, a large increase in dividend and then the fickle market popularity increase on top of that will reward patient investors handsomely. (Said maverick)

So forget the past …..large increases in profits on way …..share price follows earnings and a rerating all good …and don’t forget the increasing dividends

[Baa_Baa]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's not a cheeky unit or 2 already finished at Helier right now. So yeah , I'm pretty confident some sales will actually occur this FY23 and it will be all bonus to my expectations if it does happens.

Looks more like a luxury hotel! https://thehelier.co.nz

[Bjauck]

Looks more like a luxury hotel! https://thehelier.co.nz Fantastic view from the apartment shown at the top of the page. Balcony rail is invisible.

[justakiwi]

Wow, that is stunning. I love the natural colour scheme. When I win Lotto I'll be happy to move in ;)


Looks more like a luxury hotel! https://thehelier.co.nz

[850man]

Looks more like a luxury hotel! https://thehelier.co.nz
Wow that is flash! It certainly overturns any suggestion that OCA villages are not on a par with the others in this market.

[Maverick]

Wow, that is stunning. I love the natural colour scheme. When I win Lotto I'll be happy to move in ;)
Bad news JAK, you'll need to win lotto twice for one of these.
But the good news it's that you can buy a peice of one at the moment for " more or less" 70 % of the building cost. Just bizarre!

[DonkeyKong]

Bad news JAK, you'll need to win lotto twice for one of these.
But the good news it's that you can buy a peice of one at the moment for " more or less" 70 % of the building cost. Just bizarre!


Looks great eh. Anyone "enquired" into the prices?

[Baa_Baa]

Bad news JAK, you'll need to win lotto twice for one of these.
But the good news it's that you can buy a peice of one at the moment for " more or less" 70 % of the building cost. Just bizarre!

Oneroof reports median sales price $2.08m for Residential Dwelling (down 9.87% from 2021) and $2.30m for Residential Apartment (down 17% from 2021). https://www.oneroof.co.nz/suburb/saint-heliers-auckland-city-89

[Crypto Crude]

Winning lotto is mathematically and financially the worst investment one could make...(unless you win it lol)...to even have winning lotto as a financial outcome speaks a lot about the level of investor involved...

[bull....]

looks like the big ramp on here the other day by posters only resulted in more sellers appearing.

[Waltzing]

when the market starts hating a stock and kicking it in the guts it going to take a shock to move it upwards...

[BlackPeter]

when the market starts hating a stock and kicking it in the guts it going to take a shock to move it upwards...

True ... but I guess good financials might well be such a shock. In my view just a question of time and patience.

The risk is obviously that some overseas retirement fund might realize the potential earlier than the sleepy investors on the NZX. In that case OCA might be a feast for them and Kiwis might get again (like with MET) just the crumbs.

Up to us.

[winner69]

when the market starts hating a stock and kicking it in the guts it going to take a shock to move it upwards...

A famous investor whose name eludes me at the moment once said 'once a market pariah, always a market pariah'

But then there are a few fund managers who like putting pariahs in their fund because one day they'll come right .... they call themselves 'value investors' rather than 'hope for the best investors'

[Waltzing]

Winner , AUS is revamping its immigration and FFFFF( fatty fau (Faafoi) from Fiji ) and (woody) really stuffed up immigration in covid to the point where NZ has run out of employable people?

look at all the new retirement developments just south of hamilton in the new southern auckland outer suburds (Tamahere and Cambridge)...

New staff required and the special offerings to attract staff?

P&L 's likely to try and hide the offerings? Special balance sheet accounts to hide the loans to staff?

goodness knows how they are going to attract staff and make offers that dont hit the profit and loss accounts.

[Baa_Baa]

New staff required and the special offerings to attract staff?

P&L 's likely to try and hide the offerings? Special balance sheet accounts to hide the loans to staff?

goodness knows how they are going to attract staff and make offers that dont hit the profit and loss accounts.

The alternative to not attracting and retaining staff is to close down beds and care facilities which causes loss of revenues. So which is better, to staff at higher costs impacting profit, or shut down beds and care facilities and lose the revenues completely?

[Waltzing]

Ex BA BA ...

its how big an impact its going to be ... and can they hide it...

To move the niiddel requires consistent increases in EBITDA...

Can they even staff this new wave of cruise liners ...

[winner69]

Winner , AUS is revamping its immigration and FFFFF( fatty fau (Faafoi) from Fiji ) and (woody) really stuffed up immigration in covid to the point where NZ has run out of employable people?

look at all the new retirement developments just south of hamilton in the new southern auckland outer suburds (Tamahere and Cambridge)...

New staff required and the special offerings to attract staff?

P&L 's likely to try and hide the offerings? Special balance sheet accounts to hide the loans to staff?

goodness knows how they are going to attract staff and make offers that dont hit the profit and loss accounts.

They could put aside a few units in each village for the new recruits to live ….could be an attractive proposition

[Waltzing]

Good idea winner()->()

see that a new style of Lamda....

well set up a staff recruitment office in Kiev and the PM could open it?

Oh that right shes to busy to go there .... sheeeiiit what the f*****kie was that sound .....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thgDjUA79Yc

a few huts should do it as they will accept anything really... some tents from KMD?

get some recruits ...

damn it winner()<=() your all over this ...

[bull....]

if a business has less staff it could mean more time spent waiting on the toilet ? aussie's going all out for staff apparently same problems

[Waltzing]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0z5G7OXG6MY

[Crypto Crude]

NZ death rates are at all time highs far above averages...
Retirement villages are better off with customers/residents alive

[bull....]

NZ death rates are at all time highs far above averages...
Retirement villages are better off with customers/residents alive

exactly what i have been saying. the demand / supply imbalance will be reached sooner now.

Be interesting with the mask mandate coming up for discussion weather this marks the next down leg in retirement stocks if they do away with it. my time- line graph i posted a while back has worked well so far on these announcements

[Curly]

NZ death rates are at all time highs far above averages...
Retirement villages are better off with customers/residents alive
Tui Add: Safe and effective.

[jagger]

NZ death rates are at all time highs far above averages...
Retirement villages are better off with customers/residents alive

They were below average 3-4 years ago with analysts and commentators linking it to lower resale volumes

There is no bigger bush analysis red herring than making a song and dance about death rates.
Outside of pandemics or some other exogenic shock, it's the ultimate mean reversion variable.

[Snoopy]

They were below average 3-4 years ago with analysts and commentators linking it to lower resale volumes

There is no bigger bush analysis red herring than making a song and dance about death rates.
Outside of pandemics or some other exogenic shock, it's the ultimate mean reversion variable.


Yes but we are in a pandemic (two actually if you count Monkeypox which is officially a pandemic now as well). Which surely was CC's point?

SNOOPY

[Snow Leopard]

Now I thought an increased death rate was 'good' for OCA as it meant a faster turn-over and more DMF (was it?) paid.

Seems that whatever happens there is some doom merchant telling you it is bad.

[bull....]

Now I thought an increased death rate was 'good' for OCA as it meant a faster turn-over and more DMF (was it?) paid.

Seems that whatever happens there is some doom merchant telling you it is bad.
true but the supply of the people can reduce , meaning less people for everyone too fight over.

and i know everyone will say the baby boom ensures an endless supply of people ... yawn its not so black n white.

[RTM]

They were below average 3-4 years ago with analysts and commentators linking it to lower resale volumes

There is no bigger bush analysis red herring than making a song and dance about death rates.
Outside of pandemics or some other exogenic shock, it's the ultimate mean reversion variable.

I may have this wrong....but I really don't see the relatively small changes in death rates as being significant in comparison to the increasing number of people retiring and eventually a % of them wanting to move into a village. Could try to find some data to support this, but don't think it's worth the effort. More significant concerns are short term interest rate rises, dropping house prices, and perhaps regulatory risks in this sector.

[Snow Leopard]

true but the supply of the people can reduce , meaning less people for everyone too fight over.

and i know everyone will say the baby boom ensures an endless supply of people ... yawn its not so black n white.

I did not realise that humans were an endangered species:

Snow Leopard: Why Is It Endangered? (https://www.ourendangeredworld.com/species/snow-leopard/)

[Curly]

Now I thought an increased death rate was 'good' for OCA as it meant a faster turn-over and more DMF (was it?) paid.

Seems that whatever happens there is some doom merchant telling you it is bad.
Pretty much on the button. Not wanting to sound harsh, but the higher the turn over the greater the profit. With retiring boomers the demand will be huge. OCA will be perfectly positioned to meet that demand.

[jagger]

true but the supply of the people can reduce , meaning less people for everyone too fight over.

and i know everyone will say the baby boom ensures an endless supply of people ... yawn its not so black n white.


Yes, resales still take time/energy to execute and stock can sit vacant for months in the interim, but the "supply of people" is most certainly not reducing (and won't for at least a decade or two).

[bull....]

I did not realise that humans were an endangered species:

Snow Leopard: Why Is It Endangered? (https://www.ourendangeredworld.com/species/snow-leopard/)

ya never know with all the s... happening in the world

[jagger]

I may have this wrong....but I really don't see the relatively small changes in death rates as being significant...

That's my point, they are very much not.

[bull....]

Yes, resales still take time/energy to execute and stock can sit vacant for months in the interim, but the "supply of people" is most certainly not reducing (and won't for at least a decade or two).

thats the point im trying to make covid has brought forward the peak

[justakiwi]

Rubbish! You (and others) clearly have no understanding of the scale of our elderly population, or the current chronic shortage of standard care/hospital level care/dementia care beds. The numbers of deaths (elderly folk) from Covid will have next to no affect on anything. As many have been spouting here for the past two years - we lose more to the flu every year. There is no "peak" and won't be for decades (if ever).


thats the point im trying to make covid has brought forward the peak

[jagger]

thats the point im trying to make covid has brought forward the peak

I'm not a sector spruiker (small exposure), but we're no where close to the demographic peak for entering RV.

The first boomers only just hit 75 last year (1946 +75 = 2021).
We're only at the bow wave, and even so NZ experienced hardly any COVID deaths, nothing got "brought forward"

[Waltzing]

Pfizer will bring out a Pill just as the Bow wave hits and you get boosters with breakfest and there is a mass break out from the RV's as they party like its 19.... something...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG4F_LlSvJw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLcgjTiS45w)

a more powerful version of Viagra ...

whole market implodes....

Job market is flooded with over blue rinse applicants and tourism take off world wide...

its a total world wide problem ... and the SP's of drug companies sky rocket....

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2013/08/06/to-count-our-days-the-scientific-and-ethical-dimensions-of-radical-life-extension/

[ronaldson]

Agree that the minor increase in the death rate of our elderly due to Covid is statistically not significant in this case given the demographic tailwind now that the first of the postwar babes are 75+. What may be more concerning is the quite sharply rising proportion entering retirement without the fail-safe of home ownership compared to the previous generation, the fact that the average kiwi saver balance is currently only $26k, and that the Government has control of the purse strings for much of the sector. In my experience the latter never ends well for those on the receiving end - teachers, nurses, midwives et al, and Andrew Little for one is not sympathetic to the private providers so nothing good will happen while Labour is around despite (or maybe because of) the ever-escalating need for care services.

[justakiwi]

This is a very legitimate concern, but reinforces what I have said about the "care" side of things. These people (I am one of them) will never be in the market for a villa or an apartment, probably not even a care suite. Financially, our only option will be a standard, government subsidised care bed. No frills accommodation but in most cases, still with excellent care and support provided. Whichever government is in power in the future, they will have no choice but to adequately fund these beds. They cannot provide this standard care themselves so rely fully on aged care providers to do so. Providers will happily meet that need, but cannot be expected to do it with insufficient government funding, as they are right now.

Private providers are better equipped to provide this care, than the smaller NGO's/NFP organisations are. OCA in particular is in a prime position to take advantage of this, and I believe they have far better insight into the potential future needs for "care" (at all levels) than the rest do. Yes, they are now focussing more on care suites (with associated "add ons") than they are standard care beds, but once funding levels increase, standard beds will become an added source of revenue and the market for them will increase over the long term, given that many Kiwis will now never be in a position to buy a house.


.....What may be more concerning is the quite sharply rising proportion entering retirement without the fail-safe of home ownership compared to the previous generation, the fact that the average kiwi saver balance is currently only $26k, and that the Government has control of the purse strings for much of the sector. In my experience the latter never ends well for those on the receiving end - teachers, nurses, midwives et al, and Andrew Little for one is not sympathetic to the private providers so nothing good will happen while Labour is around despite (or maybe because of) the ever-escalating need for care services.

[jagger]

This is a very legitimate concern, but reinforces what I have said about the "care" side of things. These people (I am one of them) will never be in the market for a villa or an apartment, probably not even a care suite. Financially, our only option will be a standard, government subsidised care bed. No frills accommodation but in most cases, still with excellent care and support provided. Whichever government is in power in the future, they will have no choice but to adequately fund these beds. They cannot provide this standard care themselves so rely fully on aged care providers to do so. Providers will happily meet that need, but cannot be expected to do it with insufficient government funding, as they are right now.

Private providers are better equipped to provide this care, than the smaller NGO's/NFP organisations are. OCA in particular is in a prime position to take advantage of this, and I believe they have far better insight into the potential future needs for "care" (at all levels) than the rest do. Yes, they are now focussing more on care suites (with associated "add ons") than they are standard care beds, but once funding levels increase, standard beds will become an added source of revenue and the market for them will increase over the long term, given that many Kiwis will now never be in a position to buy a house.

100% correct.
Care is non-discretionary so the demand wave is far more certain.

ILUs look like the hero strategic play at the moment but only because we've had so much house price inflation in recent years. So cashed up home owners at the start of the demographic wave are making ILUs look stellar on relatively low industry penetration.
Operators are pivoting away from care right when they need to be adding care to their pipelines in order to have enough beds available when boomers hit that level of acuity.
If we're not building/planning now then it simply won't be there when we inevitably will need it.

MET appears to understand this - their buying spree in the last 12 months or so has been adding care to their portfolio and pipeline.
They have the luxury of doing this away from the short termist scrutiny of public markets.

[bull....]

100% correct.
Care is non-discretionary so the demand wave is far more certain.

ILUs look like the hero strategic play at the moment but only because we've had so much house price inflation in recent years. So cashed up home owners at the start of the demographic wave are making ILUs look stellar on relatively low industry penetration.
Operators are pivoting away from care right when they need to be adding care to their pipelines in order to have enough beds available when boomers hit that level of acuity.
If we're not building / planning now then it simply won't be there when we inevitably will need it.

MET appears to understand this - their buying spree in the last ~12 months has been adding care to their portfolio and pipeline.
They have the luxury of doing this away from the short termist scrutiny of public markets.

your in favour then of OCA buying bupa for the care scale ?

[Poet]

your in favour then of OCA buying bupa for the care scale ?

OCA isn't in a position to buy anything at the moment - unless they can raise more debt to fund the purchase.
It would be madness to try to raise equity in this environment when the share price is at such a discount to NAV. Any discounted cash raise would be highly valued destructive and couldn't be justified. I think shareholders would revolt as they did with SKT recently

Just my opinion of course and we have certainly seen companies make bad decisions recently.

[jagger]

your in favour then of OCA buying bupa for the care scale ?

I'm in favour of MET buying OCA.

[Maverick]

I'm in favour of MET buying OCA.
On the takeover thing, that's a fun idea to kick around.

On one hand Brent is obviously ambitious when one considers his numerous aquistions made since taking the helm. I've had the pleasure to meet him several times over the years and he definitely comes across as wanting to expand the company and really stamp OCA on the map. Plus IMO there are few greater natural motivators in business than when there is semi-personal competition between close industry adversaries. Especially when the apprentice has taken over from the master. Nothing untoward at all intended here, I'm sure Brent and Earl have large mutual respect for each other.

On the other hand , it has been long suggested that Earl always had an ambition to combine MET when he ran OCA. Just maybe with his pension fund owners he has enough resources behind him to finally scratch that itch.

My first bet is neither will take over the other but if it was a dual MET will buy OCA.

this is only my pointless opinion based on gossip , hearsay and just the general vibe really.. Just an interesting idea to knock around on a fab sunny afternoon.

[bull....]

Rubbish! You (and others) clearly have no understanding of the scale of our elderly population, or the current chronic shortage of standard care/hospital level care/dementia care beds. The numbers of deaths (elderly folk) from Covid will have next to no affect on anything. As many have been spouting here for the past two years - we lose more to the flu every year. There is no "peak" and won't be for decades (if ever).

might be more people lost soon too the state of food served in these places with the way costs are increasing

[jagger]

On one hand Brent is obviously ambitious when one considers his numerous aquistions made since taking the helm.

Earl has made multiple times the number of acquisitions and additions to his pipeline in the same time period.
He's been on a spree.

[ronaldson]

What is for sure is that the share price is beaten down just now for whatever reasons, and trading at a lot below NTA too. So is the time right?

[jagger]

What is for sure is that the share price is beaten down just now for whatever reasons, and trading at a lot below NTA too. So is the time right?

Good time to do it before they get sales (and therefore valuation uplift) on The Helier.

[BlackPeter]

What is for sure is that the share price is beaten down just now for whatever reasons, and trading at a lot below NTA too. So is the time right?

If your question is whether OCA is good value at the current price, then I think the answer needs to be yes.

If your question is whether this is the cheapest price for all times to come to buy the share, then the answer needs to be "it depends". While I would not expect the value to drop, SP can do all sorts of thinks. Just remember that it was just 2 and a half years ago when one could buy these shares for 38 cents (well, for a very short time). Hype and fear can do amazing things to share prices ... and some of the resident fearmongers work hard (I assume) to get a repeat of this situation.

Still - might be a high risk strategy to wait for a double bottom at 38 cents :) ;

[ronaldson]

MET could offer a 30% premium to the closing price this afternoon and look to get OCA's stock of land and buildings for less than the most recent valuation, and as well the entire operating business as a going concern for less than nothing! Sure beats incrementally buying up owner operators on the verge of going bust and bulking up that way.

In fact, some of our larger listed property entities might be better following that strategy in the current marketplace rather than paying inflated prices on market for individual acquisitions!

[SailorRob]

MET could offer a 30% premium to the closing price this afternoon and look to get OCA's stock of land and buildings for less than the most recent valuation, and as well the entire operating business as a going concern for less than nothing! Sure beats incrementally buying up owner operators on the verge of going bust and bulking up that way.

In fact, some of our larger listed property entities might be better following that strategy in the current marketplace rather than paying inflated prices on market for individual acquisitions!

Excellent point. Leads one to wonder why this isn't happening.

[Brain]

Excellent point. Leads one to wonder why this isn't happening.

Because OCA shareholders understand that it is worth way more than the current market price and it would take a substantially higher offer for a takeover to succeed.

[SailorRob]

Because OCA shareholders understand that it is worth way more than the current market price and it would take a substantially higher offer for a takeover to succeed.

Yes agreed, but doesn't stop a cheeky offer, even at 40% higher than here. I guess they know they wouldn't stand a chance so why bother?

[Baa_Baa]

The Helier launch event (https://www.linkedin.com/company/oceania-nz/posts/?feedView=all) (on LinkedIn)

14145

https://thehelier.co.nz

https://peddlethorp.co.nz/projects/the-helier/

[Maverick]

Recently I laid out the new apartment sales rates that are imminent and the strong statement that that is the main driver for the upcoming profit growth. (post 13407). This is turbo charged by the "Hell yeah!" about to be delivered as per Baa Baa`s posts.

So , because it s raining cats and dogs outside, here's reason No2 the upcoming profits are going up…

Essentially OCA have put their prices up. Check out this sequence of numbers. They are annual “embedded values for resales” for the last 4 years. What that is is the expected value gains of the combined villas, apartments and care suits next time they get sold as measured by current market pricing. Also I have adjusted the numbers to strip out all acquisitions.

$115.6m…$90.5m…$106.5m…$169.4

Yep, last year's price increases means each unit's profit has gone up 45% from $66k to $94k per aggregated unit.

Next bit of info is that historically turnover of the amalgamated residents averages out very smoothly to just over 16% per year.

So at a very basic level all you have to do is multiply last year's “total resale embedded value” by 16.2% ( back tested historical annual feed-out portion of that total) and wallah!... there you have this year's resale profit. Or you can multiply $94k per unit by the expected resale volume - My calcs have that around 285 ( excluding acquisitions) . Either way you get a similar number.
While I have a very convoluted system for working this out in detail, the first basic formula above is all one needs to do these days with so much historical data to back test and work from. Also as OCA grows larger its numbers start to smooth out and this simple rule of thumb is plenty sufficient these days. ( I still do my complex way as it's all set up and necessary for long term projections rather than just next year).

How important is this? …Well if one looks at the recent Summerset result and how it too has ramped up its pricing, it's clear to see the staggering effect it has on the bottom line.

But to make it too easy for you ( which risks devaluing the importance of the short and longs term effects of this information) I've done more maths.

This full year we will see about an extra $4m profit for resales, that's up 17% on PCP.

Points to remember ;
-This jump up in profit continues for another 5 years afterwards too.
- I have stripped out all the acquisitions for the above calculation so this is an apples for apples comparison. Therefore actual resales will be higher than my workings as the results will include these extra acquired units .
- This profit increase is additional to the imminent increase of “apartment new sales” profit as per my previous post.
- the only way this cannot happen is that selling prices go lower, demand dries up, or people don't move on.
- Resale increases proportionately increase DMFs thereafter.

So there's yet another one contributor ( of many) as to why this year's profit is going to rise nicely ( and stay risen ). That's when we really see OCA start to prove to the market that its plan is all coming together. You will note so far I have not mentioned anything about the "care profit", I've always said that arm of the business ( and the misplaced focus on how much nurses get paid etc) is a red herring at this point.

I do worry though that a takeover could actually happen. I know that seems an outlier but this gem is getting easier and easier to see the value coming.

[Poolboy]

Thanks for doing the maths on our behalf Maverick.

Much appreciated as I'm not really one for maths, being only 8 I have more pools to clean, but do admire those who can do maths.

[clips]

thanks Maverick, appreciate you sharing your views/knowledge, cheers

[winner69]

REINZ August data out

HPI down 1.3% from July - last 3 months down 4.7% and 5.8% from a year ago

Sharon from ANZ commented The August data are consistent with our (very uncertain) forecast that house prices will fall 15% peak to trough – they are down 9.5% already.

Just as well Oceania has to this buffer - so no worries

But I would hazard a guess that if they recalculated the Embedded Value that Mav highlighted with these current trends it would now be lower

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Monthly%20Press%20Release%20Assets/Residential/08%20-%20August/REINZ%20Monthly%20HPI%20Report%20-%20August%202022.pdf

[winner69]

Jeez, maybe the 'buffer' won't save Oceania after going by this headline in BusinessDesk

'Biggest' six-monthly drop in house prices in 30 years – REINZ


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/biggest-six-monthly-drop-in-house-prices-in-30-years-reinz

[bottomfeeder]

Jeez, maybe the 'buffer' won't save Oceania after going by this headline in BusinessDesk

'Biggest' six-monthly drop in house prices in 30 years – REINZ


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/biggest-six-monthly-drop-in-house-prices-in-30-years-reinz

There is no law that says Oceania and all other Retirement village operators must follow the news assessments and kowtow to a lower sale value of units. Costs of rebuilding new, refurbishing and upgrading are influenced by inflation which England is looking to double figures. Perhaps here as well. There is a demand for retirement units not connected to the financial implications but to necessity. Also while we all like to leave some money to our kids when we leave this mortal coil, the higher level of duty for most retirees is to themselves first. You cant take it with you, and in this modern age your kids mostly have just too busy lives to interrupt them to look after their parents, especially when serious care is required.

So I am not concerned about the current SP, it is a blip by overly worried investors, and wont last long.

[jagger]

Jeez, maybe the 'buffer' won't save Oceania after going by this headline in BusinessDesk

'Biggest' six-monthly drop in house prices in 30 years – REINZ


https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/property/biggest-six-monthly-drop-in-house-prices-in-30-years-reinz


Jeez, they went up 30% or whatever in the 12 months before that.
The sky is hardly falling.

People have some outlandish loss aversion bias on housing.
It's become a really ugly part of kiwi culture.

[winner69]

Those property related headlines adversely impacted retirement stocks today

OCA, RYM, RAD down a few per cent and SUM a little bit

Market must be thinking that sales might struggle a bit and that those embedded values are going to fall

[Curly]

Those property related headlines adversely impacted retirement stocks today

OCA, RYM, RAD down a few per cent and SUM a little bit

Market must be thinking that sales might struggle a bit and that those embedded values are going to fall
Something about storms and tea cups

[Baa_Baa]

Those property related headlines adversely impacted retirement stocks today

OCA, RYM, RAD down a few per cent and SUM a little bit

Market must be thinking that sales might struggle a bit and that those embedded values are going to fall

Overly dramatic as usual lately, not sure what's got up your nose with OCA, it is down 1 cent today, 1.03%. Still the highest dividend yield of the sector listed RV's.

[Baa_Baa]

Something about storms and tea cups

Exactly, not sure why he doesn't post exactly the same things in every RV thread and the combined Retirement thread and the other site. Surely it relates to them as well? Even if OCA was only 1 cent down, 1.03%. OCA the whipping boy.

[winner69]

Overly dramatic as usual lately, not sure what's got up your nose with OCA, it is down 1 cent today, 1.03%. Still the highest dividend yield of the sector listed RV's.

Down 2 cents today …2.06%

Just highlighting that such a drop reported in property prices will probably reduce that much touted ‘embedded value’ which as the lead indicator of future profits is not good.

But I should realise it’s not the thing to say anything that could upset the believers ….but I don’t think I’ll apologise for this.

this thread is a proxy thread for the sector in general anyway so just a good as any place to share my thoughts

[850man]

Overly dramatic as usual lately, not sure what's got up your nose with OCA, it is down 1 cent today, 1.03%. Still the highest dividend yield of the sector listed RV's.
And only RV trading at a significant discount to NTA.

[Rawz]

Down 2 cents today …2.06%

Just highlighting that such a drop reported in property prices will probably reduce that much touted ‘embedded value’ which as the lead indicator of future profits is not good.

But I should realise it’s not the thing to say anything that could upset the believers ….but I don’t think I’ll apologise for this.

this thread is a proxy thread for the sector in general anyway so just a good as any place to share my thoughts

Keep the posts coming W69

Disc. Hold OCA

[bottomfeeder]

Tough economy these days. Hard to tell where we are going to end up in the next year or so with inflation, interest rates etc.

I think it would be only panic that would make one sell at this SP.

[bull....]

Down 2 cents today …2.06%

Just highlighting that such a drop reported in property prices will probably reduce that much touted ‘embedded value’ which as the lead indicator of future profits is not good.

But I should realise it’s not the thing to say anything that could upset the believers ….but I don’t think I’ll apologise for this.

this thread is a proxy thread for the sector in general anyway so just a good as any place to share my thoughts

too true winner guess the nta might fall in time

[bull....]

forgot to add guess the us inflation figure last night probably making investors in NZ think is our inflation going to get better ? of course if it doesnt rbnz will have to keep hiking making property stocks less attractive

[Rawz]

forgot to add guess the us inflation figure last night probably making investors in NZ think is our inflation going to get better ? of course if it doesnt rbnz will have to keep hiking making property stocks less attractive

USA 100% going to export their inflation to the world. hard to see NZ dodging it. Hard to see rates not go higher.

[Ggcc]

forgot to add guess the us inflation figure last night probably making investors in NZ think is our inflation going to get better ? of course if it doesnt rbnz will have to keep hiking making property stocks less attractive

All stocks that are dividend bearing will be less attractive if the OCR increases, unless the business is growing above rate of inflation.

[MauroNZ]

All stocks that are dividend bearing will be less attractive if the OCR increases, unless the business is growing above rate of inflation.

Probably this is a good text:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/08-09-2022/whats-going-to-stop-the-rocketing-cost-of-living

[bottomfeeder]

https://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=361929

Looks like housing demand is set to increase, as well as prices, as well as inflationary pressures. OCA is poised to meet SP predictions, up up and away. It all depends which news you are prepared to believe.

[RTM]

All stocks that are dividend bearing will be less attractive if the OCR increases, unless the business is growing above rate of inflation.

That may be true...however...what is the alternative ?
A deposit with General Finance ?

[Baa_Baa]

That may be true...however...what is the alternative ?
A deposit with General Finance ?

It's been a long time, but the dividend payers will be realising their attraction to investors wanes when the returns on cash deposits and bonds increases, so they start increasing dividends to compete, move to quarterly dividends, buy-back stock, etc.

[bull....]

Be interesting with the mask mandate coming up for discussion weather this marks the next down leg in retirement stocks if they do away with it. my time- line graph i posted a while back has worked well so far on these announcements

wonder if the next down leg is starting , would be right on cue with the mask mandate having ended

[Baa_Baa]

wonder if the next down leg is starting , would be right on cue with the mask mandate having ended

Mask mandates in healthcare settings, including rest homes have not been lifted.

[ralph]

wonder if the next down leg is starting , would be right on cue with the mask mandate having ended
Looking grim and bear for Oceania, Bull

[ronaldson]

BB is correct, but it is clear retirement village stocks are under real pressure. OCA, RYM, ARV, RAD all showing % declines today, with only SUM marginally up. When it is all said and done the reported death rates from Covid are still notable, house prices are in obvious freefall, and new builds by operators continue to come on-stream in higher volumes than ever before.

[bull....]

Mask mandates in healthcare settings, including rest homes have not been lifted.

true but all the workers , delivery people etc mingle with everyone in the outside world who dont where masks

[justakiwi]

People who work in rest homes/retirement villages, are very protective of the people they care for. Not sure what other facilities are doing now, but staff where I work no longer need to do RATs before every shift. We are however, expected to test if we develop any symptoms that could be covid related. Some of us are choosing to continue testing as a personal choice. We are still wearing masks 24/7 and I can't see that changing anytime soon. Visitors are back in, unrestricted, but must also wear masks.

Our residents are (all but two) fully vaccinated and most have had a second booster. They were involved in the decision to remove previous restrictions, and made it clear they want to be able to live a "normal" life again. Most are not actually even worried about staff wearing masks now. They have seen how they have impacted on staff, and often say "Just take it off dear! I won't tell anyone." :laugh: (we don't of course).

Aged care has done an incredible job of caring for residents throughout Covid. It has been tough on them, but they have supported all decisions made for them, and have been incredibly appreciative. We have been very fortunate, with only around 12 cases in total, none of which were worse than a light dose of the flu or a common cold. I can tell you however, that the post covid effect on those with dementia/cognitive impairment, has been significant. Covid most definitely affects cognitive function, and physical ability, in these residents.



true but all the workers , delivery people etc mingle with everyone in the outside world who dont where masks

[Raven74]

People who work in rest homes/retirement villages, are very protective of the people they care for. Not sure what other facilities are doing now, but staff where I work no longer need to do RATs before every shift. We are however, expected to test if we develop any symptoms that could be covid related. Some of us are choosing to continue testing as a personal choice. We are still wearing masks 24/7 and I can't see that changing anytime soon. Visitors are back in, unrestricted, but must also wear masks.

Our residents are (all but two) fully vaccinated and most have had a second booster. They were involved in the decision to remove previous restrictions, and made it clear they want to be able to live a "normal" life again. Most are not actually even worried about staff wearing masks now. They have seen how they have impacted on staff, and often say "Just take it off dear! I won't tell anyone." :laugh: (we don't of course).

Aged care has done an incredible job of caring for residents throughout Covid. It has been tough on them, but they have supported all decisions made for them, and have been incredibly appreciative. We have been very fortunate, with only around 12 cases in total, none of which were worse than a light dose of the flu or a common cold. I can tell you however, that the post covid effect on those with dementia/cognitive impairment, has been significant. Covid most definitely affects cognitive function, and physical ability, in these residents.

Thank you for your efforts to protect those who need it.

[bull....]

People who work in rest homes/retirement villages, are very protective of the people they care for. Not sure what other facilities are doing now, but staff where I work no longer need to do RATs before every shift. We are however, expected to test if we develop any symptoms that could be covid related. Some of us are choosing to continue testing as a personal choice. We are still wearing masks 24/7 and I can't see that changing anytime soon. Visitors are back in, unrestricted, but must also wear masks.

Our residents are (all but two) fully vaccinated and most have had a second booster. They were involved in the decision to remove previous restrictions, and made it clear they want to be able to live a "normal" life again. Most are not actually even worried about staff wearing masks now. They have seen how they have impacted on staff, and often say "Just take it off dear! I won't tell anyone." :laugh: (we don't of course).

Aged care has done an incredible job of caring for residents throughout Covid. It has been tough on them, but they have supported all decisions made for them, and have been incredibly appreciative. We have been very fortunate, with only around 12 cases in total, none of which were worse than a light dose of the flu or a common cold. I can tell you however, that the post covid effect on those with dementia/cognitive impairment, has been significant. Covid most definitely affects cognitive function, and physical ability, in these residents.

thankyou for the update

[Crypto Crude]

Sounds like a stressful situation... is that why your always moody ..

[fish]

Sounds like a stressful situation... is that why your always moody ..

Personal attacks against people gets you banned .