OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ralph]

You'll get the secret inside info now ....lucky you
Now I have got fomo!!

[winner69]

Now I have got fomo!!

Yep, we’ll all miss out on fish and RTM secret squirrel stuff ;)

[fish]

No secrets
Actually pm related to another company seeking info from shareholders.
FOMO hit me during the week (more like the realisation that Omicron will not affect retirement home profits )and have already bought more

[Grimy]

I also had a little top-up this week. Needed to round my holding up (totals that don't end in 0s annoy me for some reason).

[Poolboy]

I bought a house load of them at 76 cents, so if total mayhem sets in and it drops back to that I'm in for a whole lot more. Otherwise I feel I have enough already. Actually I've bought quite a few of the dreaded opposition, RYM, so LOL as far as I'm concerned I've got my old peoples home bases coved.

[Waltzing]

LVR article.

Some summary numbers on House Price movements in relation to bank lending policies.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300517947/what-has-the-impact-been-of-lvr-rules

[winner69]

From the Genesis thread but sort of relevant to Oceania ‘investors’

Possibly just confirms that ‘investing’ in times of despair is the best time to do so ..maybe

Safer to buy bonds then shares …yes even with Oceania if safer is losing less.

If you had bought OCA shares instead of their bonds your capital would be down 23% on the Oct 20 bonds and 32% down on the Sep21 bonds ...collected a few divies in the process though

Mind you capital value of these bonds are down as well ...the 2.3% bonds down 9% and the 3.3% ones down 5%

Lost heaps on shares .... lost a little on the bonds

But says any recent investment in Oceania has been bad, really bad - can't win either way ...shares or bonds have been duds .... something Oceania management should be proud of ;)

[Grimy]

But you will get your bond capital back if you hold to maturity......
Buying in times of despair/fear is a golden rule isn't it?

[percy]

From the Genesis thread but sort of relevant to Oceania ‘investors’

Possibly just confirms that ‘investing’ in times of despair is the best time to do so ..maybe

Safer to buy bonds then shares …yes even with Oceania if safer is losing less.

If you had bought OCA shares instead of their bonds your capital would be down 23% on the Oct 20 bonds and 32% down on the Sep21 bonds ...collected a few divies in the process though

Mind you capital value of these bonds are down as well ...the 2.3% bonds down 9% and the 3.3% ones down 5%

Lost heaps on shares .... lost a little on the bonds

But says any recent investment in Oceania has been bad, really bad - can't win either way ...shares or bonds have been duds .... something Oceania management should be proud of ;)

This is from USA market.
How much would you have if you had invested $10,000.
.................................................. .................................................. ..Stocks.......................................... .........Bonds
Since the great depression........................................ .....................$43,555,160.................. ........................$1,456,391
Since the dot com bubble............................................ ......................$45,759..................... ............................$39,449
Since the Covid 19 Pandemic.......................................... ....................$14,060....................... ..........................$,9,421
The above figures confirm shares are a far better investment.
I would suggest anyone who has doubts should read "Trillions" by Robin Wigglesworth.
PS.
My mother invested in AGC which was Westpac's finance arm.
She received 6% interest.
After ten years she received her $10,000 back.
Had she bought Westpac shares she would have received 6% interest, and after ten years her shares would have been worth $30,000.Crazy.
The Trust I help out on.
Three years ago the sharemonger wanted us to buy Meridian bonds.
I think the yield from both shares and bonds were about the same.
So just under $16,000 bought us 4,000 MEL shares.Today worth $20,920.
Bonds still worth $16,000...????
Morale of the story.
When a sound business offers bonds,buy their shares,.It really works...lol

[winner69]

Those numbers percy posted makes you wonder why there are/have been so many billions of stupid people who have invested zillions in bonds

[percy]

Those numbers percy posted makes you wonder why there are/have been so many billions of stupid people who have invested zillions in bonds

My thoughts exactly.
Scary...It is called diworsification.
It really does not work.

[BlackPeter]

Those numbers percy posted makes you wonder why there are/have been so many billions of stupid people who have invested zillions in bonds

Who knows - maybe these billions of "stupid" people are just following "the intelligent investor" from Ben Graham.

For anybody who does not know why it makes sense to invest both in shares and in bonds to have a balanced portfolio ... they will find the answer in this investment classic :):

But I am sure, winner - you know that anyway ...

[percy]

Who knows - maybe these billions of "stupid" people are just following "the intelligent investor" from Ben Graham.

For anybody who does not know why it makes sense to invest both in shares and in bonds to have a balanced portfolio ... they will find the answer in this investment classic :):

But I am sure, winner - you know that anyway ...

Yet research results proves other wise.
Canterbury Library has "Trillions" by Robin Wigglesworth.A good place to start.Recommended by John Ryder.
A bit more up to date than Ben Graham's classic,as it was only recently published.

[BlackPeter]

Yet research results proves other wise.
Canterbury Library has "Trillions" by Robin Wigglesworth.A good place to start.Recommended by John Ryder.
A bit more up to date than Ben Graham's classic,as it was only recently published.

I guess the question is whether you want to have high gains and are prepared to accept high risk ... or whether you prefer medium gains with a lower risk of losing capital.

There is no right or wrong - the individual needs just to know what game they get into and be prepared to accept the outcomes, whether the dice roll in their favour or not.

With classic books it is like with classical music or classic cars - they just stay great and you still enjoy them after decades, centuries and some after millennia, while most of the new stuff (music as books) will soon be forgotten.

I prefer classic over new :p;

But hey - I didn't read the book you are referring to, but know it does recommend index funds. Who knows, maybe it will be a classic in some decades, maybe not. I think the jury on index funds is still out. Obviously - past performance looks good, but given that investing lots of money in index funds is still a quite young phenomena, - only time will tell how they survive the next handful of GFC's. Some experts are concerned how a material amount of money invested in index funds might impact on markets in times of downturn - they obviously amplify bubbles and they might as well amplify downturns. In engineering we call this negative feedback loops.

Anyway - time will tell.

[Beagle]

I thought this was the OCA thread ? Big test of the $1.05 support today. Will it hold or will it fold ?

[percy]

I guess the question is whether you want to have high gains and are prepared to accept high risk ... or whether you prefer medium gains with a lower risk of losing capital.

There is no right or wrong - the individual needs just to know what game they get into and be prepared to accept the outcomes, whether the dice roll in their favour or not.

With classic books it is like with classical music or classic cars - they just stay great and you still enjoy them after decades, centuries and some after millennia, while most of the new stuff (music as books) will soon be forgotten.

I prefer classic over new :p;

But hey - I didn't read the book you are referring to, but know it does recommend index funds. Who knows, maybe it will be a classic in some decades, maybe not. I think the jury on index funds is still out. Obviously - past performance looks good, but given that investing lots of money in index funds is still a quite young phenomena, - only time will tell how they survive the next handful of GFC's. Some experts are concerned how a material amount of money invested in index funds might impact on markets in times of downturn - they obviously amplify bubbles and they might as well amplify downturns. In engineering we call this negative feedback loops.

Anyway - time will tell.

Read it,and be informed.
Latest facts, gathered over a very long periods of time, give the true results,and shows up classic errors,and you will always be learning.
You will note in my earlier post I quoted factual figures,not theory.

[Beagle]

There's a whole separate section in the forum for investment strategies.

[percy]

There's a whole separate section in the forum for investment strategies.

I blame Winner69's post #12007 for hijacking this thread,.
He should know better...................... lol

[Beagle]

I blame Winner69's post #12007 for hijacking this thread,.
He should know better...................... lol

He's a naughty dog for sure but his irresistible dry humour makes him a very likeable rogue.

[davflaws]

I blame Winner69's post #12007 for hijacking this thread,.
He should know better...................... lol

When things are this dire, there is always a large flock of "the birds of blame" (Shouldna excrementica) wheeling overhead. The are ready to **** on anyone for any reason or for none.

We are at the age and stage when we are starting to have to use our capital, and it is a real bummer to be caught between the rocketing price of building materials for the long awaited ensuite, and the plummeting price of the portfolio.

And grossly and imprudently overweight in OCA. I wish I could find someone else to blame

[percy]

He's a naughty dog for sure but his irresistible dry humour makes him a very likeable rogue.

Now don't you go side tracking this thread too..............lol.

[Ggcc]

Now don't you go side tracking this thread too..............lol.
We all know Greg Tomlinson will buy a few more after he receives his HGH dividend. Another 2,000,000 shares gulped up.

[Curly]

Could not resist at these prices. Topped up at $1.05. Still got some gun powder if it goes goes lower. Half right or half wrong. Time will tell.

[Beagle]

First trade just gone through at $1.04...breakdown of previous $1.05 support is ominous. $1 here we come ?

I reckon this bear market has real claws and teeth.

[bull....]

yep all the people that brought recently will be the momentum lower again

[RTM]

Yep, we’ll all miss out on fish and RTM secret squirrel stuff ;)

Nah....no secret squirrel stuff Winner. I've been quite clear where I sit on the retirement industry:
There are: 1) Regulatory Risks, 2) COVID Risks and 3) Real Estate risks.
These are the big ones in my view and based on those factors and a decent gain I halved our exposure to the sector some time ago.
I do consider the sector a real estate play, not to worried about the care side of things as I don't expect they will make much there.
The sector now 3.3% of my portfolio. I think it was ~ 10 when I sold down.
If the worst thing happens and the rest homes have a disastrous time with COVID and the real estate prices ease a lot, I will consider buying more when OCA is less than 80c. Other than that...happy with my current holdings.

[Beagle]

Nah....no secret squirrel stuff Winner. I've been quite clear where I sit on the retirement industry:
There are: 1) Regulatory Risks, 2) COVID Risks and 3) Real Estate risks.
These are the big ones in my view and based on those factors and a decent gain I halved our exposure to the sector some time ago.
I do consider the sector a real estate play, not to worried about the care side of things as I don't expect they will make much there.
The sector now 3.3% of my portfolio. I think it was ~ 10 when I sold down.
If the worst thing happens and the rest homes have a disastrous time with COVID and the real estate prices ease a lot, I will consider buying more when OCA is less than 80c. Other than that...happy with my current holdings.

Great minds think alike. I currently have just on 3.6%, (and frankly that feels like a bit much), down from around the same level.

$1.05 support broken...I am no TA expert by any means but that usually means previous support becomes overhead resistance.

[BlackPeter]

First trade just gone through at $1.04...breakdown of previous $1.05 support is ominous. $1 here we come ?

I reckon this bear market has real claws and teeth.

What BEAR market? I guess the bear had a few bad dreams recently, but at the moment it is keeping its head well below the MA200 - just where it belongs :);

13601

[Beagle]

Early stages of a Bear market in my opinion. Might as well lay it all bare and drink some more beer....the wall of worry is too big to climb.

[BlackPeter]

Early stages of a Bear market in my opinion. Might as well lay it all bare and drink some more beer....the wall of worry is too big to climb.

Drinking beer is always good ... as long as you brew it yourself. Don't trust the beer they sell here in the shops :):

Re the bear market ... not sure yet, but you are right - its never wrong to be careful

[JohnnyTheHorse]

What BEAR market? I guess the bear had a few bad dreams recently, but at the moment it is keeping its head well below the MA200 - just where it belongs :);

13601


My definition of a bear market is a monthly downtrend. In my opinion this is far more reliable than relying on moving averages or the classic 20% from the peak. This definition relies on the break of long term support price levels, providing much more technical significance.

The NZ50 index is in a bear market per that definition. I will also note that the NZ50 index provides very reliable technical signals for the rest of the market (which would probably surprise most). Ignore at your peril.

Last two months have been disgustingly profitable for me :)

[Beagle]

The peak for the NZX50 was last August and the tide has been going out for more than 6 months since then. That's a Bear market in my opinion.

[Waltzing]

"Tide was out" at the Mount this evening and the board riders were have an evening in a south pacific paradise.

Not a shark fin seen at shark ally...

If your a bit depressed by markets or the world take in the best NZ has to offer before the winter comes..

[Joshuatree]

Magic evening from on top of Mauao tonite.Take a walk around or up it and exit feeling fine.:)

[RTM]

Great minds think alike. I currently have just on 3.6%, (and frankly that feels like a bit much),

I think if you just wait a few weeks you may find your % reduces all by itself.
No action needed.

[buy_high_sell_lo]

I think if you just wait a few weeks you may find your % reduces all by itself.
No action needed.

I think you're gonna be right

[Bjauck]

"Tide was out" at the Mount this evening and the board riders were have an evening in a south pacific paradise.

Not a shark fin seen at shark ally...

If your a bit depressed by markets or the world take in the best NZ has to offer before the winter comes.. If the tide goes out too far it may mean a tsunami is a-coming.

[Waltzing]

Ok lets call it close enough 102... that a dollar rounded down a bit.

[Poolboy]

A bit quiet around this place... Looks like we all got it wrong.

[Curly]

Expecting a bit of a lift once mandates are lifted. Not expecting further downturn unless Ukraine goes pop and escalates into WW3.

[Beagle]

A bit quiet around this place... Looks like we all got it wrong.

Lot of people licking their wounds and some like me, have run out of saliva as you can see https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Jdo1S12u&id=7B75FB16761F2715A317BA64E56431F34F434326&thid=OIP.Jdo1S12uW3UeXOFUiEVHMgHaFg&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.2 5da354b5dae5b751e5ce15488454732%3frik%3dJkNDT%252f MxZOVkug%26riu%3dhttp%253a%252f%252fwww.wormsandge rmsblog.com%252ffiles%252f2010%252f11%252fDog-Lick1.jpg%26ehk%3dLM3vtEuzhhXO%252bnvMcq079mUdO20A uqJcA4y50gdXAp0%253d%26risl%3d%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r% 3d0%26sres%3d1%26sresct%3d1%26srh%3d799%26srw%3d10 75&exph=299&expw=402&q=beagle+licking+its+wounds&simid=608047651451525867&FORM=IRPRST&ck=EB81F73ED8D2B4C41DB15723F568745D&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[winner69]

Property market still going nicely .... several regions hitting new records

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2022/Residential/202202/REINZ%20Residential%20Press%20Release%20-%20February%202022.pdf

[Rawz]

How long does it have to sit around $1.05 mark before a base is formed?

Its never going to go to the magical $1 number is it

[Waltzing]

Is industrial and warehousing the new hot land market.

still all those plush retirement villa's will be sort after the more those motor bikes gangs intimidate towns across the country.

you can hear them coming and going.

[850man]

How long does it have to sit around $1.05 mark before a base is formed?

Its never going to go to the magical $1 number is it

I recall a post a while ago "we'll never see $1.30 again" at that time it was referring to a downward move to $1.30! Let's not give this the kiss of death with any predictions around $1 :eek2:

[bottomfeeder]

I feel it could go below $1. After all who can predict the future. But it won't stay there long. Buyers will come in quite quickly. After all the SP has been up to $1.70, and is down to nearly a $1. That is quite a drop. OVERSOLD!

[Rawz]

I recall a post a while ago "we'll never see $1.30 again" at that time it was referring to a downward move to $1.30! Let's not give this the kiss of death with any predictions around $1 :eek2:

Im in this sick twisted state where i want to see $1 even though i am a holder. Dont ask me why

Its like, anything lower than what we are at today is a joke and good buying.

[nztx]

Im in this sick twisted state where i want to see $1 even though i am a holder. Dont ask me why

Its like, anything lower than what we are at today is a joke and good buying.


maybe a buck tomorrow

the way the water is draining from the NZX bath tub of late, everything could look more attractive tomorrow ")

[Waltzing]

a lot of investors will be building up cash when inflation hits for reinvesting when the tide swings.

and that could be a few years hence.

not sure but the banks could be the new hot stock soon if they can keep up the DIV's.

the GFC has a big rebound then a sell off .

As money drains from the system through central bank tightening

[Curly]

The world sentiment across the board is so negative and has been for some time.
Ukraine war has only compounded that coupled with covid, mandates, protests, inflation, interest rates blah, blah. Not the recipe for a robust sharemarket.
When sentiment turns towards this negative of an extreme, it almost always precedes an impending major rally.
Just to present an other view?
What will change the sentiment?
Resolution to Ukraine war.
Learn to live with covid,
Lifting of mandates,
Get everyone back to work.
OCA has not changed, it will adapt to house prices, interest rates, staff wages up or down. Just keep eye on the target of the tsunami of rest home care in the coming years. Proven model that works.

[bull....]

care doesnt produce big profits , if anything the level of care in these places is going to get far worse because of rising inflation eating into profits

[Curly]

care doesnt produce big profits , if anything the level of care in these places is going to get far worse because of rising inflation eating into profits
Agreed, but high turn over of ORAs produces huge profits that more than compensates. If regulated, OCA will adapt. Reality tells me If more die of covid in rest home care (and thats unlikely) then greater the turnover and greater the profit. Sounds harsh but true.

[bull....]

Agreed, but high turn over of ORAs produces huge profits that more than compensates. If regulated, OCA will adapt. Reality tells me If more die of covid in rest home care (and thats unlikely) then greater the turnover and greater the profit. Sounds harsh but true.

true if it happened , maybe less care as well might work in your favour too , also a favourable property market also helps in what you are saying for speed of re-sale

[bottomfeeder]

care doesnt produce big profits , if anything the level of care in these places is going to get far worse because of rising inflation eating into profits
We haven't got a legislative price freeze, as we had in Muldoon times. Inflation will only benefit care homes. I was watching a show on netflix and they put it best. "A sheep can be two things, wool as well as meat". Care homes are a multitude of things, but when inflation really bites, assets such as land and buildings will increase in value according to the cost of new builds. It may take a short time for the flow on effect, but it will come. Prices will increase for other care services as well. Anyone think Inflation is 6 percent, I think it is closer to 15 to 20%. Anyone holding cash will see its value wither in front of your eyes. The share market will boom again as soon as some of the uncertainties are passed. When it does it will be quick. You won't have time to wait for your bonds to be sold, or your deposits to fall due. Holding cash on call will be the only way, but that eats into your savings quicker than you think.

[bull....]

We haven't got a legislative price freeze, as we had in Muldoon times. Inflation will only benefit care homes. I was watching a show on netflix and they put it best. "A sheep can be two things, wool as well as meat". Care homes are a multitude of things, but when inflation really bites, assets such as land and buildings will increase in value according to the cost of new builds. It may take a short time for the flow on effect, but it will come. Prices will increase for other care services as well. Anyone think Inflation is 6 percent, I think it is closer to 15 to 20%. Anyone holding cash will see its value wither in front of your eyes. The share market will boom again as soon as some of the uncertainties are passed. When it does it will be quick. You won't have time to wait for your bonds to be sold, or your deposits to fall due. Holding cash on call will be the only way, but that eats into your savings quicker than you think.

of course each time is different but the most comparable period to now is the 70s maybe and during that time stock investors did terrible. real assets did alright but like i say each time is different with different outcomes and no guarantee's like your suggesting about retirement units. in fact as i suggested in a previous post inflation will eat up most companies profits going forward esp in a stag inflation time

[Waltzing]

" assets such as land and buildings will increase in value according to the cost of new builds."

be interesting to see the EPS going forward and also from the retail, industrial and warehouse property sectors.

Disc: No holdings in this sector at present.

[Beagle]

Middle of the month and I am getting desperate and impatient wondering where the bottom is...no point asking anyone on here including me or Maverick or anyone else, nobody has a clue...so this time I asked for divine inspiration as I tossed my Commonwealth games 1974 dollar coin I asked please let the answer be forthcoming...if its heads I get stuck in when the share price crosses up through the 30 day moving average line, (currently $1.09), its its tails I stay with my modest stake (3.5% portfolio weighting) and wait for it to cross the 100 day MA line to confirm a new uptrend, (currently $1.25).

Drum roll please....and wait for it.....oh dear, sorry folks, it was tails again. Gosh, how depressing is that...(Beagle slinks back to his kennel and curls up again). No more coin tossing until next month.

[thebusinessman]

Middle of the month and I am getting desperate and impatient wondering where the bottom is...no point asking anyone on here including me or Maverick or anyone else, nobody has a clue...so this time I asked for divine inspiration as I tossed my Commonwealth games 1974 dollar coin I asked please let the answer be forthcoming...if its heads I get stuck in when the share price crosses up through the 30 day moving average line, (currently $1.09), its its tails I stay with my modest stake (3.5% portfolio weighting) and wait for it to cross the 100 day MA line to confirm a new uptrend, (currently $1.25).

Drum roll please....and wait for it.....oh dear, sorry folks, it was tails again. Gosh, how depressing is that...(Beagle slinks back to his kennel and curls up again). No more coin tossing until next month.
It's good to know even the pros struggle with these questions, thanks for the 'heads up' Beagle.

[bottomfeeder]

Middle of the month and I am getting desperate and impatient wondering where the bottom is...no point asking anyone on here including me or Maverick or anyone else, nobody has a clue...so this time I asked for divine inspiration as I tossed my Commonwealth games 1974 dollar coin I asked please let the answer be forthcoming...if its heads I get stuck in when the share price crosses up through the 30 day moving average line, (currently $1.09), its its tails I stay with my modest stake (3.5% portfolio weighting) and wait for it to cross the 100 day MA line to confirm a new uptrend, (currently $1.25).

Drum roll please....and wait for it.....oh dear, sorry folks, it was tails again. Gosh, how depressing is that...(Beagle slinks back to his kennel and curls up again). No more coin tossing until next month.
My scientific analysis, that is my yes/no coin says that now is the time to Buy.

13622

[Waltzing]

even though the nice villas are there in the photos and people will want them who in the sector has the best sales team or do these lovely's almost sell themselves.

Mr B likes profits and perhaps not the reval ones but cash ones.

DISC: sectorial holdings in retirement stocks none ATM.

[Beagle]

My scientific analysis, that is my yes/no coin says that now is the time to Buy.


I prefer my 1974 Commonwealth Games coin + Technical analysis which says at best this is a "hold" with an existing modest stake.

[Habits]

I prefer my 1974 Commonwealth Games coin + Technical analysis which says at best this is a "hold" with an existing modest stake.

To me the chart is looking weak.... holding above psycological 1 dollar for now. Could be temporary downdraught, lets see

[Brain]

I prefer my 1974 Commonwealth Games coin + Technical analysis which says at best this is a "hold" with an existing modest stake.

I think you should run with your coin. Just as reliable as TA and requires way less effort.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I think you should run with your coin. Just as reliable as TA and requires way less effort.

Jeez I never realised TA was just a coinflip. Here I was thinking I was quite smart these last few months making stupid amounts of money whilst everyone else is losing money, but turns out it was just luck!!

Made some good money selling OCA short :t_up:

[Poolboy]

Certainly some bargains available. Sadly I don't have any spare cash. Well, I have enough cash to pay for my funeral should I decide to jump.

[BlackPeter]

I think you should run with your coin. Just as reliable as TA and requires way less effort.

Not quite. Flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance to get it right, while most TA-methods (correct and consistently applied) sit around a 60 % hit-rate (60 right - 40 wrong). Has something to do with this "the trend is your friend" ... or just call it inertia :):

[JimmyTrade]

Not quite. Flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance to get it right, while most TA-methods (correct and consistently applied) sit around a 60 % hit-rate (60 right - 40 wrong). Has something to do with this "the trend is your friend" ... or just call it inertia :):

When using TA is it best to sure shorter period moving average when macro economic events like in the existing environment (100 day MA and 20 day MA rather than the typical 200 day MA and 50 day MA) accompanied with the MACD signal.

Just starting to play around with TA to determine appropriate time for long term holding entry to maximize upside and minimize downside accompanied with fundaments. Looks to be a lot of value plays (DCF model) in the US markets but most have only recently crossed the "death cross" with MACD signal also not being favorable. Patiently awaiting the "golden cross".... Are their any other methods I should be applying to support my action.

[BlackPeter]

When using TA is it best to sure shorter period moving average when macro economic events like in the existing environment (100 day MA and 20 day MA rather than the typical 200 day MA and 50 day MA) accompanied with the MACD signal.

Just starting to play around with TA to determine appropriate time for long term holding entry to maximize upside and minimize downside accompanied with fundaments. Looks to be a lot of value plays (DCF model) in the US markets but most have only recently crossed the "death cross" with MACD signal also not being favorable. Patiently awaiting the "golden cross".... Are their any other methods I should be applying to support my action.

There are plenty other methods and indicators around worthwhile to check ... and depending on the stock and your general investment behaviour and risk tolerance you might find some of them more and some of them less useful. You need to find out what works for you.

However - this is clearly not a discussion for the OCA thread.

Have a look through this forum: https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?10-Investment-Strategies

You might find some ideas where to start to learn more :);

[X-men]

Frosty crook is having a cry over NBR..saying investors are overreacted with the cooking housing market. They are over invested in the age care sector?

[dln]

There are plenty other methods and indicators around worthwhile to check ...
You just look for ones that justify the decision you already made ... :)

[Baa_Baa]

You just look for ones that justify the decision you already made ... :)

Well there's the rub isn't it. A noob has preconceived compulsions that they look for affirmation, to convince their resolve to execute a trade. A pro is much more thoughtful, considered and precise. Most of us here though, I think nowadays conjoin FA and TA to inform our decisions and we each have a unique background strategy pointing us in a certain direction.

It depends a lot on whether you bought or are buying an asset that pays you regularly ad infinitum and it's irrelevant what the market thinks the asset is worth right now, or, you bought the asset because you think someone else in the market will pay a higher price for it sometime, it's just when the 'sometime' is right.

Either way, TA is an essential tool for any investor who wants insights into live or delayed market price sentiment, literally down to the minute if you want to.

There is no trader especially, who would not be using TA to inform their decisions.

Some income/value investors use TA to time their conviction to buy, or buy more of their earners.

[BlackPeter]

You just look for ones that justify the decision you already made ... :)

Is this your investment strategy :scared:?

[percy]

You just look for ones that justify the decision you already made ... :)

Well I certainly keep holding a share if the story/reasons I bought it remain the same.

[winner69]

Selling heaps more and making about the same (sometimes less) always a good strategy …that’s from an operational (underlying earnings) perspective.

But if you keep raising capital and keep borrowing more to buy and build things hopefully the value of the company will go up.

[winner69]

Vibes around Oceania are feeling good today

Today is going to be a good day for the OCA share and will signal the end of a 8 month decline which as seen a 30% plus taken off the share price.

Onwards and upwards from here …. A steady uptrend back to $1.60 …that’s about a 50% gain from here.

[bottomfeeder]

Vibes around Oceania are feeling good today

Todaupy is going to be a good day for the OCA share and will signal the end of a 8 month decline which as seen a 30% plus taken off the share price.

Onwards and upwards from here …. A steady uptrend back to $1.60 …that’s about a 50% gain from here.
There was a thriving market for buying and selling in the $1.60 to $1.70 range not so long ago. You would think that at this SP that buying as much as you can would be a no brainier.
It is human nature that as an SP declines so much that this company is just a dog. It happened in March 2020, where a lot of us took a foothold in this company. Whoever sold in those days really panicked, just as any seller does today. Unfortunately its dicy just what is going on in today's market as I feel most traders are selling and buying on thin margins to consolidate their tax loss at a cost price valuation. So this tends to keep the SP low. Don't be fooled. After March we will see a firm demand taking the SP to at least $1.20 in a short period of time.

[bull....]

hhaaaha probably be all saying back to 1.50 odd when it hits 70c lol

must be plenty of believers in the martingale system on this thread

[Beagle]

Vibes around Oceania are feeling good today

Today is going to be a good day for the OCA share and will signal the end of a 8 month decline which as seen a 30% plus taken off the share price.

Onwards and upwards from here …. A steady uptrend back to $1.60 …that’s about a 50% gain from here.

Nice attempt at a ramp mate. Market sent it to a fresh low instead. Gotta "love" this share. Overseas markets and local market up twice in a row and OCA keeps going down. Promised myself I'd never sell my free carry six figure stake...that was $50,000 ago...:(

[Snoopy]

Nice attempt at a ramp mate. Market sent it to a fresh low instead. Gotta "love" this share. Overseas markets and local market up twice in a row and OCA keeps going down. Promised myself I'd never sell my free carry six figure stake...that was $50,000 ago...:(


Cheer up Beagle. When your 'free carry six figure stake' goes down to a 'free carry five figure stake', then you can sell without breaking your promise ;-P

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Nice attempt at a ramp mate. Market sent it to a fresh low instead. Gotta "love" this share. Overseas markets and local market up twice in a row and OCA keeps going down. Promised myself I'd never sell my free carry six figure stake...that was $50,000 ago...:(

And ARV was up …the indignity of it

[Beagle]

Cheer up Beagle. When your 'free carry six figure stake' goes down to a 'free carry five figure stake', then you can sell without breaking your promise ;-P

SNOOPY

Won't have to wait long lol

I could be interested in a proper sized stake again at half NTA... for a punt... but otherwise I think I'll keep my ticket on this road to who really knows where. Couta1 is known to have a big stake. I guess I should have known that was a sign.

[winner69]

Won't have to wait long lol

I could be interested in a proper sized stake again at half NTA... for a punt... but otherwise I think I'll keep my ticket on this road to who really knows where. Couta1 is known to have a big stake. I guess I should have known that was a sign.

And the capital value bonds going down faster than the shares …..so as you say shares better than bonds lol

Get these at 4.5% now

[percy]

Won't have to wait long lol

I could be interested in a proper sized stake again at half NTA... for a punt... but otherwise I think I'll keep my ticket on this road to who really knows where. Couta1 is known to have a big stake. I guess I should have known that was a sign.

He is in good company.
Gregg Tomlinson.

[Beagle]

He is in good company.
Gregg Tomlinson.
Yes Gregg got stuck in at $1.40. I might be interested in warming up the truck at half that if it gets there again. Made a few quid last time it was there but history never repeats...or does it ;)

[percy]

Yes Gregg got stuck in at $1.40. I might be interested in warming up the truck at half that if it gets there again. Made a few quid last time it was there but history never repeats...or does it ;)

Remember he bought his HGH stake at those sort of prices.
Astute.
Bit bigger holding than thee or me..lol
Interesting to note he has only ever bought more shares in OCA and HGH,never sold any.
Guess that is the way to real wealth.?

[Beagle]

Remember he bought his HGH stake at those sort of prices.
Astute.
Bit bigger holding than thee or me..lol

Yeah, just a "little" bigger lol

[thegreatestben]

Bought some for 1.01 with my HGH div. I’ve got time :)

[Ggcc]

Greg Tomlinson must be adding stock to his collection with his money freshly received from HGH.

[Beagle]

Any TA experts want to opine on this one ?

Are we still looking at an abandoned baby or is someone reaching for some diapers to change its nappies and maybe give it a cuddle ?

[Waltzing]

TAAA says the market "come and get some".

there might be some action here in light of the 2 resent polls showing the centre and right parties polling well and the likely hood of tax roll backs of so called loop holes.

The market is certainly taking the view that it worth a punt. at a dollar. Which if you look at the charts has a lot of support going back to august 2017.

just needs Whinny to make a come back and all those grey power people to get in behind the old battler and you could have change of GOVT and off goes the property market or at least steadies the ship.

[Beagle]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

[Poolboy]

Girlfriend pointed a Rottweiler at me and said "Back away from the keyboard." Ha, as if I'm silly enough to buy some more :rolleyes :

[percy]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

Long overdue...lol

[Louloubell]

Hi Beagle, you are right, you need some therapy. Being a mental health nurse I might be able to help. Over a glass of vino we can discuss OCE and TRA and you can cry on my shoulder.

[Greekwatchdog]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

You make this too hard. You have done your research and we have discussed in length pros/cons and watched in frustration the fall over last 6 months. This was always a invest forget stock. The big issue if your a momentum trader you look daily. Trust your own insights old dog you won't lose any more hair.

Good luck with your decision.

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle, you are right, you need some therapy. Being a mental health nurse I might be able to help. Over a glass of vino we can discuss OCE and TRA and you can cry on my shoulder.

Sounds good, here we go https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU

You're right GWD, I should get a proper job and / or a decent boat and keep more busy and be extremely grateful that I am not in the front line of this Covid mess,,,WOW sobering stuff https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/a-note-from-your-gp-i-commiserate-with-the-pharmacist-who-went-home-and-cried-we-do-that-too/7YPA3SLKF3SZEDF5WFGYWBNZTA/.

[Bjauck]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol
Ha! Abandoned baby or mangy pup? I will go for its being the puppy that has just taken a dump in your favourite moccasins (ah yes I speak from experience!) It’s in your bad books at the moment, but the odds are that it will grow up to be a faithful companion…

[winner69]

…… This was always a invest forget stock…..
..

Maybe a invest Forget stock …..and when you remember you had it you cry out ‘jeez, what happened I’ve lost heaps’

[Greekwatchdog]

Maybe a invest Forget stock …..and when you remember you had it you cry out ‘jeez, what happened I’ve lost heaps’

Maybe winner, but you only lose when you sell. Sometimes in investing you have to lose 1 to have xxx winners. I am sure you are an astute investor to know already. Just like buying a horse at the sales. The best bloodlines aren't always the best investment.

[Maverick]

I think I am going to have to rename this stock OCD. Its doing my head in with obsessive compulsive disorder tendencies.
Yesterday when I saw it close at $1.01 I want to sell this mangy pup to the meat works and today it looks like its a bit more loveable and might deserve a cuddle. Help....I probably should go and get some therapy lol

Too funny Beagle. It's interesting that you currently dislike this “flea infested mutt” and yet you own it and won't/cant walk away.

Here's my uneducated theory for you since it's more or less happy hour right now, grab that tui and lets go…
It seems to me you've morphed from value investing (with TA on the side) to being TA dominant these days (but only trading with value companies.) Now we all know the TA and momentum for RV stocks has been appalling for 7 months now. That's why you loathe it….but there's that part of you that still knows somewhere in this flea infested mutt is value. There's your quandary.

You know I'm all about the value and have a long time horizon but don't you worry , I still feel these falls as keenly as anybody. When you and I get our knickers in such a twist on a few cents movement it tells me 2 things.
Firstly- nearly all other investors will be feeling the same emotions and thinking capitulation -” sending it of to the works” (almost certainly worse than us if they are newer to the game or less familiar with the actual OCA financials)
Secondly- that only a few cents movement can now evoke such a reaction surely suggests incredulity it can fall even further, even by a few cents. I interpret this as we must be at or close to the bottom as there is no remaining logic causing this low level. I suspect you instinctively know that too.

ARV and OCA PE were about 19/20 about 6 months ago when everything was property positive, oil was cheap enough, inflation was transitory and our smug little hermit nation was ticking along fine. See where I'm going with this. So now ARV and OCA have had PE compression all the way down to 12.5-13.Yes, RYM and SUM have too of course but run on different multiples. This is the next clue that the readjustment is now complete as i've never known PEs of ARV or OCA ever to go below this.

Ive done a bit of digging around as a value investor making sure the company has not experienced any operational changes to justify a derating. I am fully re- assured the fundamentals of OCA , deliveries , prices etc have not changed in the slightest. In fact everything is right where it should be as of this week despite potential omicron and labour/supply issues. We know from other companies they too are performing as expected. So it's ALL about perception. As an aside “ finance sector ” is all in TA favour right now hence it's easy to love HGH but hate all things property.

The real dilemma for you I suggest Beagle is not how much more can this fall but for you is when to get back in. You fundamentally can sniff a good feed when Waimarie gets selling ( and I can confirm that through my workings) but it's got to be another 18 months away . So you instinctively know the feed is there to be had but when do you get back on board?... What do you do Jack , what do you do ( fantastic quote from Sandra Bullock's “Speed”).

Market closes in 10 minutes and we will despair or celebrate if it goes up or down a few cents. Time for a second tui to celebrate ( or commiserate.)

Have a great weekend mate, your post has certainly caused quite a stir.

[Poolboy]

Market closes in 10 minutes and we will despair or celebrate if it goes up or down a few cents. Time for a second tui to celebrate ( or commiserate.)



Good thing I'm only eight years old. By the time I'm an old fulla like you guys it may have gone back up to 160.

[850man]

Nice 5% rally today for end of week and a decent volume traded as well :-)

[fish]

106 at close with big volumes and strong buying-looks to have turned as it had to sometime

[Greekwatchdog]

106 at close with big volumes and strong buying-looks to have turned as it had to sometime

Beagle tossed his coin and went shopping...Good dog. Now don't look again until result day

[bottomfeeder]

Beagle tossed his coin and went shopping...Good dog. Now don't look again until result day

Whole sector has had a bit of an uplift. ARV up to $1.58. Should have listened to my Yes/No coin a few days ago. Lets hope the run continues, hate this YoYo in SP.

[Greekwatchdog]

Whole sector has had a bit of an uplift. ARV up to $1.58. Should have listened to my Yes/No coin a few days ago. Lets hope the run continues, hate this YoYo in SP.

An up week. Let me go get my Single Malt 18 year old to celebrate.

[Rawz]

An up week. Let me go get my Single Malt 18 year old to celebrate.

That’s the spirit ;)

Got to celebrate the wins in life.

Will do the same later tonight

OCA will never ever ever go to $1. To much of a bargain even now

[Bjauck]

That’s the spirit ;)

Got to celebrate the wins in life.

Will do the same later tonight

OCA will never ever ever go to $1. To much of a bargain even now
Some big end of trading trades recently - presumably EOFY rebalancing, or is it something else going on?

[Poolboy]

Thank you God. Thank you all of the Gods. I needed the money. The other kids said they were going to throw me out of the sand pit if I didn't pay them protection money - It's not easy being a Titahi Bay boy.

And a particular thanks to the Gods ,AIA went up 5.9% on closing. Phew.

[bottomfeeder]

Those holding stocks on revenue account could be rebalancing, but those 800 thousand odd shares at $1.06 were sold by someone and bought by someone. The buyer sure is in a hurry to accumulate at this higher price, the seller wants to get out. If I didnt know better, it looks like someone is looking for a position from which to launch a takeover. But I think it would be unlikely, as Arvida was up as well. After the selloff over the last few months and the oversold position, I think the sector will come back in favour at these lower prices.

[Greekwatchdog]

SUM and RYM were up 2% and 4% respectively as well. Lets see what next week brings for the sector.

[Beagle]

Too funny Beagle. It's interesting that you currently dislike this “flea infested mutt” and yet you own it and won't/cant walk away.

Here's my uneducated theory for you since it's more or less happy hour right now, grab that tui and lets go…
It seems to me you've morphed from value investing (with TA on the side) to being TA dominant these days (but only trading with value companies.) Now we all know the TA and momentum for RV stocks has been appalling for 7 months now. That's why you loathe it….but there's that part of you that still knows somewhere in this flea infested mutt is value. There's your quandary.

You know I'm all about the value and have a long time horizon but don't you worry , I still feel these falls as keenly as anybody. When you and I get our knickers in such a twist on a few cents movement it tells me 2 things.
Firstly- nearly all other investors will be feeling the same emotions and thinking capitulation -” sending it of to the works” (almost certainly worse than us if they are newer to the game or less familiar with the actual OCA financials)
Secondly- that only a few cents movement can now evoke such a reaction surely suggests incredulity it can fall even further, even by a few cents. I interpret this as we must be at or close to the bottom as there is no remaining logic causing this low level. I suspect you instinctively know that too.

ARV and OCA PE were about 19/20 about 6 months ago when everything was property positive, oil was cheap enough, inflation was transitory and our smug little hermit nation was ticking along fine. See where I'm going with this. So now ARV and OCA have had PE compression all the way down to 12.5-13.Yes, RYM and SUM have too of course but run on different multiples. This is the next clue that the readjustment is now complete as i've never known PEs of ARV or OCA ever to go below this.

Ive done a bit of digging around as a value investor making sure the company has not experienced any operational changes to justify a derating. I am fully re- assured the fundamentals of OCA , deliveries , prices etc have not changed in the slightest. In fact everything is right where it should be as of this week despite potential omicron and labour/supply issues. We know from other companies they too are performing as expected. So it's ALL about perception. As an aside “ finance sector ” is all in TA favour right now hence it's easy to love HGH but hate all things property.

The real dilemma for you I suggest Beagle is not how much more can this fall but for you is when to get back in. You fundamentally can sniff a good feed when Waimarie gets selling ( and I can confirm that through my workings) but it's got to be another 18 months away . So you instinctively know the feed is there to be had but when do you get back on board?... What do you do Jack , what do you do ( fantastic quote from Sandra Bullock's “Speed”).

Market closes in 10 minutes and we will despair or celebrate if it goes up or down a few cents. Time for a second tui to celebrate ( or commiserate.)

Have a great weekend mate, your post has certainly caused quite a stir.

LOL mate, you know the old dog too well. Its always a pleasure to hear from you buddy.
As you've very astutely noted my value investment strategy has adapted for the extraordinary times we find ourselves in with a very heavy overlay of TA.
In my opinion with everything going on this is not the time for excess confidence in one's fundamental assessment of value but with that said you are quite right that it seems pretty remarkable this is trading at such a deep discount to NAV. I suspect this has come in for more than a little short selling.

Certainly with the quarterly NZX50 rebalance (happens in the closing 15 minute match process of every third Friday of the third month of each quarter), at the close today we saw some significant institutional buying to rebalance.

Its been hard to watch this decline from $1.59 6 months ago to $1.01 yesterday, its certainly tear your hair out stuff, not that I have much left lol
I can't sell my free shares, promised myself I never would so I am captive to this roller coaster journey and on this journey whether I like it or not, (obviously I often don't lol.)

Today's little bounce was not quite enough to lift it up through the 30 day moving average line so its not time to adopt any more of these lonely looking abandoned puppies yet. One day I'll open the door and get some more of them into my warm kennel. We'd need to see them kick onwards and upwards a bit more next week before I'd be tempted.

I'm up for the month to date and the week which is pretty remarkable with all that's going on in the world so its definitely time for a beer !
Motto for the weekend, drink more, think less :t_up:

[Poolboy]

it looks like someone is looking for a position from which to launch a takeover.

He may have been listening to you guys and believes they are worth 160.

Just business I suppose. Someone on AIA bought about 48 million worth at the day's high. Shame he didn't decide to buy first thing in the morning and saved 3 million. Must have been Peter Jackson, small change for him.

[winner69]

Somebody once said the process of losing big gains and recovering them over time is akin to a “long interesting trip to nowhere”

Think he was saying the retreat from high valuations (OCA at 160) acts as a headwind that consumes the return that would have been provided from less speculative more sensibly valued stocks.

Sort of says OCA was never really worth 160 but maybe in 3 years time it maybe ….and holding until it does is that “long trip to nowhere”

At least beagle sort of recognised that by selling some but faces a trip to nowhere but will be happier because the ones he’s buying now will be a trip to somewhere and the dog will be happy as

[alokdhir]

Somebody once said the process of losing big gains and recovering them over time is akin to a “long interesting trip to nowhere”

Think he was saying the retreat from high valuations (OCA at 160) acts as a headwind that consumes the return that would have been provided from less speculative more sensibly valued stocks.

Sort of says OCA was never really worth 160 but maybe in 3 years time it maybe ….and holding until it does is that “long trip to nowhere”

At least beagle sort of recognised that by selling some but faces a trip to nowhere but will be happier because the ones he’s buying now will be a trip to somewhere and the dog will be happy as

That makes me wonder He should have sold lots of his HGH around $ 2.59 as it was clearly over valued and then getting them around $ 2.06 would have added to trips happiness ...but did he ? I am sure he didn't as he liked HGH more then OCA ...point I am trying to make that some are more comfortable and convinced about some stocks and not so for others ...while all stocks do get overvalued from time to time as thats how markets work .

But Guru Lister says coming out of market every time we perceive it to be overvalued will never let u get best out of market . No trader makes more money then well researched and maybe lucky Long Term investor ...IMO

[percy]

That makes me wonder He should have sold lots of his HGH around $ 2.59 as it was clearly over valued and then getting them around $ 2.06 would have added to trips happiness ...but did he ? I am sure he didn't as he liked HGH more then OCA ...point I am trying to make that some are more comfortable and convinced about some stocks and not so for others ...while all stocks do get overvalued from time to time as thats how markets work .

But Guru Lister says coming out of market every time we perceive it to be overvalued will never let u get best out of market . No trader makes more money then well researched and maybe lucky Long Term investor ...IMO

If you look at companies' share register,it is easy to see the real wealthy,Masfen,Tindall,Todds,Goodfellow,Tomlinson are not traders,but long term investors.

[Rawz]

Nobody can time the market.. if they could they wouldn’t be here on sharetrader with the rest of us noobs. They would be in a private jet heading to their private island. I.e they would be a billionaire

[peat]

Nobody can time the market.. if they could they wouldn’t be here on sharetrader with the rest of us noobs. They would be in a private jet heading to their private island. I.e they would be a billionaire

but its fun trying... and if the trades are appropriately sized it doesnt matter that much. I bought some SPX the other day at the low almost to the minute.

good post Mav thanks for reviewing fundamental operations are good.

I'm holding from about 1.40 and starting to consider doubling down on that for the long term. the last few months look like a terminating triangle and there is clear RSI divergence.

[bottomfeeder]

From 1April I am no longer trading, but becoming a long term holder. I have loaded up on OCA so much over the last few weeks. As well as ARV. Too many eggs in one basket you might say, but I feel that the stock has been oversold, and when their current developments come on line, the true value and inflation proofing will reward me handsomely. Unfortunately it's crystal ball stuff, but only time will tell. I wonder how many shares you would need to hit the top 50 shareholders. I don't even know where to look for that sort of information.

[peat]

I don't even know where to look for that sort of information.
Top 20 is in the annual report and you need a few million to get that ranking.
13629
But that info is almost a year old now and there was that cash raising so the list may be quite different now.

[bottomfeeder]

Simply Wall Street, has a good comprehensive review and analysis. Conservative SP is valued at should be $1.43. Hope it doesn't start rising until after 31 March. Oh those capital gains, tax free. I won't make top 25 as you need over 1 mill shares.

[Maverick]

but its fun trying... and if the trades are appropriately sized it doesnt matter that much. I bought some SPX the other day at the low almost to the minute.

good post Mav thanks for reviewing fundamental operations are good.

I'm holding from about 1.40 and starting to consider doubling down on that for the long term. the last few months look like a terminating triangle and there is clear RSI divergence.
It's very nice to have you on board Peat.
After your persistence and excellent research on Ebos a few years ago when it was $20 to what it is now, I consider your opinion of great value.

[Waltzing]

if you get your A4 chart paper out winner(*n) and pastel the line in with the wooden ruler you can see that support set a bottom line between 100 and 105.

now of course if it starts to head down again its all bets off and need 2 A4 chart papers sellotaped together..

[winner69]

if you get your A4 chart paper out winner(*n) and pastel the line in with the wooden ruler you can see that support set a bottom line between 100 and 105.

now of course if it starts to head down again its all bets off and need 2 A4 chart papers sellotaped together..

Got a bit high tech waltz and used an electronic ruler and paintbrush ...cool eh ....but baabaa would be a lot more sophisticated than me.

I made 100 to 110 as support / resistance levels ..... and we in that range now.

Been over 110 a few times but always come back to about that level ....ouch ...what a loser of a stock


Amazing that share price is still what it was nearly 5 years ago -- that surely is one of those 'long trips to nowhere' eh

Just as well this time its going to be different and we'll all be rich as in a couple of years time.

[winner69]

OCA was one of the highest bought stocks by Jarden/DB clients last week ....up there with AIR (and RYM)

Most bought = BUY value traded in that stock exceeded the SELL value traded in that stock

Was 35th the week before - he love is returning to OCA ...that's cool

[Waltzing]

winner(*n) , PERFECT water colouring in there !

thats the line.. now draw one for HLG ! but you have to go back to 2000 for that one as you can see with the addition of AUS its stepped up a range bracket it now topped 6 more than 5 times.

"all be rich "

do you think MR B is still going to be invested in this best of breed grey hound in 5 years time?

DISC: no longer holding any in this sector in NZ in any portfolio.

"up there with AIR "

well that says it ALL!!

AIR is well hot at the moment!!!

[winner69]

Jarden / DB clients buying heaps of OCA ….must be Forbar clients selling ;):):(:mellow::eek2::confused:

[winner69]

Methinks Oceania have a hierarchy - primary focus on residents being looked after then next comes ensuring staff are happy as and they're looked after as well ….and let’s not forget the environment as that’s important as well.

All commendable stuff but I get the impression that shareholders are an after thought. Can’t say they don’t consider them because they’ve borrowed $70m to dish out as dividends (which the shareholders have had to pay $20m tax on). One does tend think we are a pain in the butt but an necessary evil as one day they will be asking for more cash…..more capital raises

I can’t see that hierarchy / culture changing. Shareholders will always be disappointed and frustrated.

Oceania do a great job for the community but investing in them seems to be a rather altruistic activity ……without much satisfaction (warm fuzzies or thanks) in return.

Will pop in at small aged care place up the road (do so regularly) to see if they want a bit of help around the place …..even if it’s mowing their lawn. All covid precautions of course. That probably be more satisfying than being an Oceania benefactor.

[percy]

Methinks Oceania have a hierarchy - primary focus on residents being looked after then next comes ensuring staff are happy as and they're looked after as well ….and let’s not forget the environment as that’s important as well.

All commendable stuff but I get the impression that shareholders are an after thought. Can’t say they don’t consider them because they’ve borrowed $70m to dish out as dividends (which the shareholders have had to pay $20m tax on). One does tend think we are a pain in the butt but an necessary evil as one day they will be asking for more cash…..more capital raises

I can’t see that hierarchy / culture changing. Shareholders will always be disappointed and frustrated.

Oceania do a great job for the community but investing in them seems to be a rather altruistic activity ……without much satisfaction (warm fuzzies or thanks) in return.

Will pop in at small aged care place up the road (do so regularly) to see if they want a bit of help around the place …..even if it’s mowing their lawn. All covid precautions of course. That probably be more satisfying than being an Oceania benefactor.

"If you give people what they want,you will get what you want."
ie The customer [resident] should always come first,then staff.
Just excellent business practice.Think MFT,EBO etc..

[Bjauck]

"If you give people what they want,you will get what you want."
ie The customer [resident] should always come first,then staff.
Just excellent business practice.Think MFT,EBO etc..
Unhappy shareholders can sell up or vote to oust directors.

[Baa_Baa]

OCA 'Drivers' put their own people first, and interestingly the 'customers' don't feature in those 'Drivers' unless customers are lumped in with 'stakeholders', 4th on the list. It seems the combination of those 'Drivers' lead to the 'value Outcomes' which leads to the 'Strategy' and 'Purpose' to achieve the 'Goals'.

It's a bit like trying to read their financial statements, somewhat convoluted and counterintuitive.

Our drivers
- Our people - Highly motivated, passionate and safe staff
- Our expertise - The capability of our people and quality of our systems
- Our villages - The quality of our villages and landbank
- Our relationships - The strength of the relationships we have with our key stakeholders and our brand reputation
- Our financial capital - The combination of shareholder funds, banking facilities and operating cash flow employed to maintain and grow our business
- Our natural capital - The quality of the natural resources we rely on to run our business today and in the future

Our value outcomes
Residents love living in our communities

- We delight our residents with hospitality inspired, customer led services
- We are passionate about the wellbeing of our staff, residents and their families
- We lead the way in how we do things

... leading to the 'Strategy'
We have set our strategy by considering what is important to key stakeholders and which risks and opportunities have the greatest impact on our ability to create value in the short and long term.
This strategy establishes goals and identifies measures to report people, planet and prosperity achievements as we build a better future.

.. and 'Purpose' ...

Our purpose
To reimagine the retirement and aged care living experience in New Zealand

... to achieve the 'Goals' ...

Our goals [abridged]
People:
We delight our residents and staff by caring for them and making a difference to their happiness every day.
Our measure
Employee wellness engagement, resident engagement, health and safety.

[Baa_Baa]

First full year balance date at 31st March reports due in May. They'll already know how well it's going and haven't advised any change in guidance.

[Baa_Baa]

Got a bit high tech waltz and used an electronic ruler and paintbrush ...cool eh ....but baabaa would be a lot more sophisticated than me.

I made 100 to 110 as support / resistance levels ..... and we in that range now.

Chart might be more sophisticated but still comes up with the same result as you re support, most prevalent support band going back years is 1.00 - 1.10.

Agree with Peat as well, RSI divergence to price has been forming for a couple of weeks, signalling a potential bottom reversal.

Anyway, OCA is cheap as chips so making sure I have a few more for the collection. :)

[winner69]

First full year balance date at 31st March reports due in May. They'll already know how well it's going and haven't advised any change in guidance.

They haven't given any guidance (as far as I know) so no need to advise any change ...... shareholders don't really matter anyway

Al that Drivers,Outcomes blah blah is basically what I was saying earlier

[Beagle]

Methinks Oceania have a hierarchy - primary focus on residents being looked after then next comes ensuring staff are happy as and they're looked after as well ….and let’s not forget the environment as that’s important as well.

All commendable stuff but I get the impression that shareholders are an after thought. Can’t say they don’t consider them because they’ve borrowed $70m to dish out as dividends (which the shareholders have had to pay $20m tax on). One does tend think we are a pain in the butt but an necessary evil as one day they will be asking for more cash…..more capital raises

I can’t see that hierarchy / culture changing. Shareholders will always be disappointed and frustrated.

Oceania do a great job for the community but investing in them seems to be a rather altruistic activity ……without much satisfaction (warm fuzzies or thanks) in return.

Will pop in at small aged care place up the road (do so regularly) to see if they want a bit of help around the place …..even if it’s mowing their lawn. All covid precautions of course. That probably be more satisfying than being an Oceania benefactor.

Bingo !! I think very few people are aware that many of OCA's facilities were originally acquired from Presbyterian Support Services when they were run as not for profit care facilities. Its not something OCA talk about much, but certainly came out in Q & A when Earl Gasparich presented at the Auckland branch of the shareholders association meeting a few years ago. More often than not the culture never changes.

Sure we're past the previously much hyped, but never talked about these days, point of inflection where we can now enjoy more than 50% of their facilities being either premium rooms, or care suites / independent living units where we hope that the occupation right agreement model gives us a decent return on capital but the way I see it is that currently more than 40% of their business model is ostensibly little different than the not for profit Presbyterian Support services style care facilities that they took over and for all intents and purposes more than 40% of OCA is currently a charity. (I hope my Dad would be proud of me supporting large parts of this business that ostensibly run as a charity).

One thing is for sure, Covid and all the extra costs that come with that is not going away any time soon.

Share price. Back into the $1.00 - $1.10 support zone. Nice chart mate. Objectively, it could be suggested that with no growth whatsoever in earnings per share in the 5 years since they listed maybe that's where the share price belongs until they can prove their business model actually works for shareholders ?, (rather than just delivering all the gains to residents, staff and management).

Until they can prove they can grow earnings I find it difficult to make a convincing case to the contrary. I feel like we've heard them cry wolf for so many years now that the business transformation will deliver gains to shareholders that unless I actually see it, I won't believe it.

How come we never here about the so called magic point of inflection now ? Could it be that the business model is so non commercial all and any gains are eaten away by residents, staff and management and this is likely to be the case going forward as well ? Surely not !...but maybe so...

Isn't philanthropy such fun :)

[Habits]

"because they’ve borrowed $70m to dish out as dividends (which the shareholders have had to pay $20m tax on"

Is that the reval gains distributed to shds with no imp creds. The dividends from retirement companies are pretty low to start with before finding you lose Rwt

[Poolboy]

The reason I bought into OCA is because they actually have some assets - anything goes wrong "I'll have an acre of land and a couple of units thank you." . And from what I've heard they run the operation in a friendly and sensible manner. Much better than a bunch of dickhead directors and managers patting themselves on the back with big bonuses and expensive lunches.

I'm a reasonably long term investor. Not a trader.

[winner69]

One hopes that Oceania’s F22 underlying earnings will be higher than F21 ……they can then say they are a growth company.

[Beagle]

One hopes that Oceania’s F22 underlying earnings will be higher than F21 ……they can then say they are a growth company.

Yep, bet they'll have a few different ways of saying they're growing and what's the bet underlying earnings per share does not even rate a mention. Probably learned that trick from Arvida lol

[BlackPeter]

"If you give people what they want,you will get what you want."
ie The customer [resident] should always come first,then staff.
Just excellent business practice.Think MFT,EBO etc..

I agree - this is the secret of the most successful companies. Obviously - they still need to make some money, but otherwise - if they look after their customers, their customers will look after them. I like to be invested in companies like that.

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/128110078/auckland-city-median-house-price-falls-19-per-cent-since-peak-in-november

19% drop in Auckland median house price since Nov 2021.

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/128110078/auckland-city-median-house-price-falls-19-per-cent-since-peak-in-november

19% drop in Auckland median house price since Nov 2021.

OMG at this rate the saviour of Oceania’s profit being Waimarie apartments will be 30%/40% cheaper than many are hoping for.

[allfromacell]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/128110078/auckland-city-median-house-price-falls-19-per-cent-since-peak-in-november

19% drop in Auckland median house price since Nov 2021.

Wow, a sobering reminder why it's always better to use the HPI as quite rightly pointed out in the article.

[Greekwatchdog]

Wow, a sobering reminder why it's always better to use the HPI as quite rightly pointed out in the article.

Headline always grabs attention.

CoreLogic head of research Nick Goodall said the drop was in part due to a rise in the proportion of flats and apartments selling, and a fall in the number of freestanding homes sold, which was probably driven by house owners’ price expectations being too high.​

[Baa_Baa]

OMG at this rate the saviour of Oceania’s profit being Waimarie apartments will be 30%/40% cheaper than many are hoping for.

Goodness me, you are such a Chicken Little in a bear market, catastrophising every share you have. Chill imho, it's not like we haven't done bear markets a number of times before now. You guru's are supposed to be offering soothing words calming the noobs, not calling 'the sky is falling'.

OCA are and have historically been very slow to recognise market movements in property prices on their balance sheet. By the time they value the asset base again the markets will either be back at their uplift from ages old valuations, or ahead of them regardless of where median houses end up.

It's well past time to draw back from the daily market price movements and focus on whether you think OCA is still a good fit for your investing strategy, and if so, is now a cheap deal for the asset? I think it is. Any more lower just means getting an even better deal.

[Ferg]

It's well past time to draw back from the daily market price movements and focus on whether you think OCA is still a good fit for your investing strategy, and if so, is now a cheap deal for the asset?

Wise words.

I still say "patience my dear fellows, patience".

The more I look at the OCA accounts the more I am peeling away the layers of the onion (no easy task, but I am getting there). Underlying profit is trying to strip away IFRS impacts and focus on what is close to cash accounting based on activity. Looking only at the property side for now given that seems to the focus of this thread, building a new facility adds nothing to underlying profit per se. It is the sales of those new builds that adds to underlying profit (and of course resales). Whereas a new build adds to reported NPAT through revaluations, as in this complex cost "x" to build but it is now worth "y" under IFRS. Much like the brownfield developments are worth "x" when purchased, but are worth "y" once they are consented for multiple units etc. OCA has multiple layers of revaluations, but none of which matter for underlying earnings.

Given the relatively healthy development margins over recent years (where "y" is consistently higher than "x"), and the demand for such facilities seems insatiable, I view the risk to new build margins and the flow of sales as relatively low. Increased construction costs will result in higher property values and I expect Management will do what they can to control costs. This plus resales should maintain underlying profit. Yes there is a signalled dip in new build margins as the mix between cities and regions changes, but population density + demand suggests the mix may change back AND the impact may be insulated somewhat by high resale margins. Keep in mind resale margin is the difference between the new ORA value and the ORA value paid by the previous tenant.

Given the average tenure for units is 7 years and apartments is 5 years, resale margins are calculated versus these old values. Would someone like to check the maths - what are the compounded growth rates for property over the last 5 and 7 years? If some residents are currently living longer than expected due to the pandemic health initiatives, this merely pushes out the resale by a year or more, which will still result in a higher resale value than that tenant paid. Hence I come back to patience my dear fellows, patience. Resale margins are here to stay...but that is not all...

In addition, a higher overall ORA value results in a higher Management Fee given it is a % of the ORA. A higher ORA value means higher deferred management fee (DMF) income for OCA. Whilst these are accrued onto the Balance Sheet according to the ORA contracts, they are released to the P&L based on expected occupancy durations. So a growing "deferred management fee" on the liability side of the Balance Sheet is a GOOD thing. I say it is good because it is not a liability that will ever crystallise through a cash payment, rather it is revenue that has not yet been put into the P&L. Not all reported liabilities will result in a cash outflow for a business. And this growing balance is evidence of higher future DMF revenues (see * below).

In summary more developments = more activity, and inflation + time = higher values; more activity times higher values = higher revenues and profits for OCA. This is what I call the snowball effect. OCA have multiple snowballs in play, where each is at a different stage. Some snowballs take 8 years to extract full value. As to how the developments are funded, and the potential impact on EPS which Beagle touched on, will have to wait for another day.

*Homework: check out the concept of "embedded value" in the OCA annual and interim reports.

That said, if you want a faster return on your money then maybe follow JBMurc's mining picks on the ASX! (not investment advice).

[Beagle]

Had another look at the interim financial statements presentation and I see that they really only just reached the point of inflection at the half year where 50% of their units are premium revenue, care suite, or independent living unit. So the sobering reality with care costs where they are at present is that about 49% of the current units, (grossly Govt underfunded basic care units) is being run as a charity. Given the value of these very small rooms that are grossly underfunded is very modest compared to other premium rooms, care suites and independent living units my estimate is that about 20% of one's capital invested in OCA is basically of a philanthropic nature, supporting the charitable side of their business.

To me this explains the discount to NTA because somewhere around 20% of the NTA is completely unproductive capital.

My contention is its no market accident that OCA is the only one in this sector to trade at a discount to NTA and this discount is genuinely warranted. FOOP (Fear of over paying) is alive and well with OCA as it quite rightly should be.

In five years time as the glacial speed of their business redevelopment program finally starts to transform this company the ~30% of units that are still basic underfunded care will probably amount to something like only 10-12% of the NTA. Hopefully they will move even further away from loss making activities after that.

Does it fit my long term investment objectives ?. Thank you Ferg, that's a timely question. A 4% unimputed dividend yield is absolutely pathetic so its an epic fail in terms of conferring retirement income on me. A slow boat to China with capital gains but maybe another 4%-5% per annum makes it a hold for me but only having a modest SUM of shares seems like the right fit for me. Chasing real capital growth in this sector should be done SUM where else in my opinion and only after watching TA closely on that one.

Disc: I am going to continue holding my modest allocation but I am no longer interested in adding, (no more coin tosses, sorry), unless it goes under the original IPO price. Share price gains from here are probably going to be as exciting as watching grass grow during a drought. Ouch, there I said it !

[Poolboy]

More fun than having money in the bank.

I feel having money in the share market is like horse racing. But (generally -gulp) the money is not all gone at the end of the race. It's all about having a good time.

[ralph]

More fun than having money in the bank.

I feel having money in the share market is like horse racing. But (generally -gulp) the money is not all gone at the end of the race. It's all about having a good time.

You may be better of having the Beagle toss his coin for you double the good time

[Poolboy]

Having a good time thanks to Covid discounts on OCA already thanks Ralph. I bought a house load of them at 76 cents LOL

[bull....]

Having a good time thanks to Covid discounts on OCA already thanks Ralph. I bought a house load of them at 76 cents LOL

if you followed T/A you could have sold up in the 1.50's and be sitting pretty waiting for a re-entry instead of being a long term holder watching there capital for some and capital gains for others slowly disappear

[Bob50]

if you followed T/A you could have sold up in the 1.50's and be sitting pretty waiting for a re-entry instead of being a long term holder watching there capital for some and capital gains for others slowly disappear

How does one ‘follow T/A’. Where do you get the information- charts etc.
Thanks.

[bull....]

How does one ‘follow T/A’. Where do you get the information- charts etc.
Thanks.

sign up for free at tradingview.com or you can use big charts as examples

a very simple way to follow t/a is by using moving averages which display the general consensus of the market on a particular symbol.
the subject is far to big to go into detail on here there are plenty of books on the subject. but using a combo of T/A and fundamentals usually works well i find rather than just one

[Habits]

if you followed T/A you could have sold up in the 1.50's and be sitting pretty waiting for a re-entry instead of being a long term holder watching there capital for some and capital gains for others slowly disappear


But that also makes you a trader for income tax purposes, paying tax on any big gains from 2020.and later. No thanks, I'd rather be a LT holder. I know that it is still possible to be liable for tax on the gains based on intentions, that is less clear cut

[Balance]

if you followed T/A you could have sold up in the 1.50's and be sitting pretty waiting for a re-entry instead of being a long term holder watching there capital for some and capital gains for others slowly disappear

Show us the posts which have T/A indicating OCA as a sell at $1.50.

Note how the T/A posters always post their observations AFTER the fact? Never before.

That's how they seek to build their credibility with the newbies to follow them so they can front run.

You have been warned.

[Poolboy]

if you followed T/A you could have sold up in the 1.50's and be sitting pretty waiting for a re-entry instead of being a long term holder watching there capital for some and capital gains for others slowly disappear

150's yer mean 159. I don't mind. I bought a whole lot of RYM to make up for any shrinkage haha.

[bull....]

Show us the posts which have T/A indicating OCA as a sell at $1.50.

Note how the T/A posters always post their observations AFTER the fact? Never before.

That's how they seek to build their credibility with the newbies to follow them so they can front run.

You have been warned.

balance stirring again

it is widely seen on this thread i am the only one too have called this top with fundamentals opinion and the odd t/a post.

remember my calling 1 before 2 months ago ... and it was so true

you didnt read the post above i use t/a and f/a ... forgot to put your glasses on this morning eh

anyway moving on i dont need to waste my time saying how right i was to you lol

[bull....]

yes i should add i was the only one who called a2 as a top too at the top to much abuse from the thread similar to this thread and many others

so newbies watch out you have been warned when threads is all only one big positive view look out its the rampers in full flight

[Beagle]

Balance and I were right there with you calling the top on ATM. Kudos where its due, well done on reading the tea leaves on this one.

[Balance]

yes i should add i was the only one who called a2 as a top too at the top to much abuse from the thread similar to this thread and many others

so newbies watch out you have been warned when threads is all only one big positive view look out its the rampers in full flight

Only one?

Bull = Bullshxt

[Balance]

A property deal just fell over today due to developer’s inability to source bank funding and our group has just been offered the development land (zoned for apartments) in a prime Auckland location for 21% less than the price agreed to.

Vendor is keeping the 10% non refundable deposit so his price is actually only 11% lower and being an experienced vendor, he is cutting and running. He is not hanging out to get anything remotely close to the previous deal price.

Worse yet to come for the property market in the year ahead imo.

[Waltzing]

Those tax loop holes again.... once your down one you just cant see the light of day ....

[Habits]

A property deal just fell over today due to developer’s inability to source bank funding and our group has just been offered the development land (zoned for apartments) in a prime Auckland location for 21% less than the price agreed to.

Vendor is keeping the 10% non refundable deposit so his price is actually only 11% lower and being an experienced vendor, he is cutting and running. He is not hanging out to get anything remotely close to the previous deal price.

Worse yet to come for the property market in the year ahead imo.

Just wait until houses and t/houses are factory built more efficiently or by giant 3D printers. The build cost will drop but end cost to consumer wont reflect entirely as land price increases and fatter margins will make the difference. We usually buy land in bulk so dont pay the 2 to 10k per sqm

[bottomfeeder]

Too many futuristic theories and comparisons to dodgy developers. OCA, does not lack funds, and has a stable and secure financial position. They have good assets and a good business. Their product and services are well in demand. Nothing speculative about their operation.

[Balance]

Too many futuristic theories and comparisons to dodgy developers. OCA, does not lack funds, and has a stable and secure financial position. They have good assets and a good business. Their product and services are well in demand. Nothing speculative about their operation.

Agreed except that the assets of OCA & the other retirement village operators are valued to property market conditions.

In fact, that is the single biggest driver of their valuations.

And property conditions will stabilise and go back up again - question of when.

[bottomfeeder]

Agreed except that the assets of OCA & the other retirement village operators are valued to property market conditions.

I think that model of pricing will change in a falling market. People have been used to a rising market for quite a while now. But now that the consensus is that the market is falling other models will be looked at. On a falling market development of new self care units will stop. Resales are based on recovery of refurbishment costs and commissions, the balance is paid to the licence holder. Licence holders will certainly get less money.

[Habits]

Just wait until houses and t/houses are factory built more efficiently or by giant 3D printers. The build cost will drop but end cost to consumer wont reflect entirely as land price increases and fatter margins will make the difference. We usually buy land in bulk so dont pay the 2 to 10k per sqm

One of the first sections we looked at was asking 80k for 1000sqm in kingsland near the shops. Not sure the zoning but it ended with 2 x duplex ie 4 homes. That was 1993. Todays value would be good buying at $2m at 2000 per sqm. Even that is do-able but still crazy.

[Beagle]

Agreed except that the assets of OCA & the other retirement village operators are valued to property market conditions.

In fact, that is the single biggest driver of their valuations.

And property conditions will stabilise and go back up again - question of when.

Property downturns as you know usually last years not months. More likely is that in nominal terms the market will fall slightly this year and next maybe 10-20% in total, perhaps a bit more or less but in inflation adjusted terms with inflation running at maybe 7% this year and 5-6% next year the real loss in value is considerably higher.

OCA reasonably well positioned to weather any correction given they haven't increased their unit prices anywhere near in line with the last 2 years rampant increases in house prices.

[Habits]

Property downturns as you know usually last years not months. More likely is that in nominal terms the market will fall slightly this year and next maybe 10-20% in total, perhaps a bit more or less but in inflation adjusted terms with inflation running at maybe 7% this year and 5-6% next year the real loss in value is considerably higher.

OCA reasonably well positioned to weather any correction given they haven't increased their unit prices anywhere near in line with the last 2 years rampant increases in house prices.

I do not think this is a a downturn such as the likes of GFC or asian crisis or 80s sharemarket crash. All of those happened late in each respective decade... is that a coincidence or cyclic? We had our cyclic downturn for the 2010s from 2017 to 2019, those dates could be arguable, but again late in the decade. Causes of the downturn are also debatable, such as low business confidence, Jacinda govt elected, foreign buyer ban etc. Currently we have full, practical employment with rising income levels so apart from low consumer confidence causing a problem I think this is a pause. Yes with some slight retraction in asset prices.

Going back into my minds recesses the best comparison I recall was in 1994. Inflation and hence interest rates were rising, the sharemarket and bond prices were up and down and there was a lot of discussion. It followed a period when interest rates had fallen a lot and shares had benefited through comparative returns. I just kept a general watch of financial markets in those days as we had bought our first home 6 months before that but what followed was few years of growth. Does all of that ring a bell with others

[Beagle]

I do not think this is a a downturn such as the likes of GFC or asian crisis or 80s sharemarket crash. All of those happened late in each respective decade... is that a coincidence or cyclic? We had our cyclic downturn for the 2010s from 2017 to 2019, those dates could be arguable, but again late in the decade. Currently we have full, practical employment with rising income levels so apart from low.consumer confidence causing a problem I think this is a pause. Yes with some slight retraction in asset prices.

Going back into my minds recesses he best comparison I recall was in 1994. Inflation and hence interest rates were rising, the sharemarket and bond prices were up and down and there was a lot of discussion. It followed a period when interest rates were falling and shares were benefitting through comparative returns. We had bought our first home 6 months before that but what followed was few years of growth. Does all of that ring a bell

Yes it does sort of ring a bell. We bought our first home in 1991, I saved really hard for 3 years and put down a $30K deposit on a $137K home. Within a year as I recall it I was seriously concerned most of the equity had been eroded so 1991 and 1992 must have been really bad years for real estate. 7 years later we sold it for $179K so there were not huge gains back then like people have become accustomed too in recent years.

I think we are definitely going to see some serious pressure coming on people who bought in very recent times who have locked in huge mortgages at 2.0-2.5% and are faced with an interest rate of about double that when their first fixed mortgage term comes to an end. Sheeting this back to OCA is not so problematic as there's no way their unit prices have gone up by anything like the general market in recent years. That said, the huge increase in real estate listings for sale and increasing time to sell and lower sales volumes will make transacting retirees home sales a fair bit slower as well as at lower prices. All of this is baked into the current price in my view as well as the degree to which this is a charity that I have recently been talking about. Its all baked in there but the question is what is the catalyst if any for the share price break out of the doldrums ? I struggle to see what's going to do that ?

[Habits]

Yes it does sort of ring a bell. We bought our first home in 1991, I saved really hard for 3 years and put down a $30K deposit on a $137K home. Within a year as I recall it I was seriously concerned most of the equity had been eroded so 1991 and 1992 must have been really bad years for real estate. 7 years later we sold it for $179K so there were not huge gains back then like people have become accustomed too in recent years.


Similar experience two years later in 1993. Paid 130k with 25 to 30k deposit. We did some work and a new garage built and one year later we had a reg valuation at 180k. Used that equity and bought a couple of high yield rentals...aka dumps... yikes what was I thinking

[Balance]

Its all baked in there but the question is what is the catalyst if any for the share price break out of the doldrums ? I struggle to see what's going to do that ?

Real estate downturns do indeed last years rather than months and unless there is a takeover, it is hard to see what will turn sentiment around on the retirement village sector.

Talked to a 2nd tier financier today and he said that he has approached by any number of developers who have been turned down by the banks for their land purchases which are coming up for settlement.

The game has been too easy up until 6 months ago when land values just kept rising and rising - putting a non-refundable 10% deposit and paying up for development land was such an easy game. The music just came to a stop and the tide has just gone out. Who have been swimming naked?

[BlackPeter]

Real estate downturns do indeed last years rather than months and unless there is a takeover, it is hard to see what will turn sentiment around on the retirement village sector.

Talked to a 2nd tier financier today and he said that he has approached by any number of developers who have been turned down by the banks for their land purchases which are coming up for settlement.

The game has been too easy until 6 months ago when land values just kept rising and rising - putting a non-refundable 10% deposit and paying up for development land was such an easy game. The music just stopped and the tide has just gone out.

Mmh ... you are saying that all the people currently living in cars, caravans and holiday parks are more than happy to keep it that way? Happy campers, so to speak.

Really surprised about the number of caravans and (stationary) motor homes which popped up over the last 18 months or so in our area. They sort of came out of nowhere, but now every second house seems to have such an appendix (and - if empty - advertising for $250 +/- per week);

Great you are telling us the people living there are all happy campers. I started to get concerned that they might look at some stage for some more permanent place to live and drive the property prices further up.

So glad you sorted this problem, the homeless will be thankful to you :p;

[Balance]

Mmh ... you are saying that all the people currently living in cars, caravans and holiday parks are more than happy to keep it that way? Happy campers, so to speak.

Really surprised about the number of caravans and (stationary) motor homes which popped up over the last 18 months or so in our area. They sort of came out of nothing, but now every second house seems to have such an appendix (and - if empty - advertising for $250 +/- per week);

Great you are telling us the people living there are all happy campers. I started to get concerned that they might look at some stage for some more permanent place to live and drive the property prices further up.

So glad you sorted this problem, the homeless will be thankful to you :p;

You lost me - what about the homeless?

[Beagle]

Lost me too...no idea where that socialist rant came from or what it has to do with OCA :confused:

[Habits]

Lost me too...no idea where that socialist rant came from or what it has to do with OCA :confused:

Something relevant is having a bigger and bigger pool of those who cannot buy in to a retirement village unit that may eventually bite the RV company profits. At the moment RV companies are on a roll as pensioner numbers increase and lots of them are homeowners with a house to sell. Possibly another separate issue is the increasingly large DMF as property values have grown. Relatives may begin to see that as too big of a cost to bear and start to look for alternatives. Time to go... feed the cats and off to work :D

[Beagle]

Something relevant is having a bigger and bigger pool of those who cannot buy in to a retirement village unit that may eventually bite the RV company profits. At the moment RV companies are on a roll as pensioner numbers increase and lots of them are homeowners with a house to sell. Possibly another separate issue is the increasingly large DMF as property values have grown. Relatives may begin to see that as too big of a cost to bear and start to look for alternatives. Time to go... feed the cats and off to work :D

There's a wide range of different villages out there at different price points. Even in Remuera you can get a serviced apartment, (not an OCA facility) for only $320K that doesn't look too bad https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/retirement-villages/auckland/auckland-city/remuera/listing/3524431439?bof=PmAK7Ylb
Villages can't be expected to be all things to all people. Yeah I am aware that in many countries there's an uptick in people living in motorhomes, some by choice and for lifestyle and others through necessity but I don't see how that's relevant to the retirement village sector.

In my opinion its the Governments job to provide housing for those at the bottom of the economic ladder.

[Habits]

Beagle
Have a look at this, about 1994 bond market crash. I did not know there was a name for it but it tallies with what we were discussing. Apology for wrong thread

1994 bond market crisis - Wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_bond_market_crisis#:~:text=The%201994%20bond% 20market%20crisis,the%20rest%20of%20the%20world.

[bull....]

Balance and I were right there with you calling the top on ATM. Kudos where its due, well done on reading the tea leaves on this one.

ok maybe you beagle but balance followed us loudly after the downgrades

[Balance]

ok maybe you beagle but balance followed us loudly after the downgrades

Hindsight Bull = bullshxt

[Beagle]

My recollection is the 3 B's made a great and sustained team effort to help try and help people avoid cremating their capital with our really sustained efforts on the ATM thread to highlight the increasing risks. I think it was a fabulous team effort and all three of us can feel proud and really satisfied we made a real difference for good for some people. It feels really good to contribute in a meaningful way and do good for others without in any way profiting from it yourself.

I am still trying to think of a catalyst that will spring this out of the doldrums and all that comes to mind is a possible takeover at some point.

[davflaws]

[QUOTE=Beagle;948378]

It feels really good to contribute in a meaningful way and do good for others without in any way profiting from it yourself.

[QUOTE]

Careful! You are in grave danger of slipping into a "socialist rant"

[Beagle]

[QUOTE=Beagle;948378]

It feels really good to contribute in a meaningful way and do good for others without in any way profiting from it yourself.

[QUOTE]

Careful! You are in grave danger of slipping into a "socialist rant"

:lol: :lol:

[peat]

wow Beagle we both bought our first house in 1991, mine was on Dec 4th. In Kingsland I paid 130 It was totally a buy in gloom period, I'd been saving hard out since before the crash of 87 (which I averted).
Sold that house 10 years later for 360 so it would appear I did better than you for CAGR haha

I wanted to say takeover several pages back of this thread, but now see it has been broached. That possibility will act as a support for price at these levels maybe. Someone can then rationalise it and change the culture and get the price back up to 1.50 easy.

I think its easy to see the possibility of a bottom formation taking place here. a bit of an inverted H& Sh. One strong almost bullish engulfing candle and then a few corrective days. Its all set for a resolution very soon
13639

[Rawz]

Thank you for your post, Peat.

So it is decided. We shall never see $1. Too bad, it would have been nice.

It’s a big fat BUY

Beagle- flip that coin again, just one more time plz. It is the last omen we require to back up the truck. Keys are in, tank is full, gear stick is in reverse, just need to release the clutch

[Beagle]

Thank you for your post, Peat.

So it is decided. We shall never see $1. Too bad, it would have been nice.

It’s a big fat BUY

Beagle- flip that coin again, just one more time plz. It is the last omen we require to back up the truck. Keys are in, tank is full, gear stick is in reverse, just need to release the clutch
Hold your horses mate, its too early.

I think its easy to see the possibility of a bottom formation taking place here. Peat
Agreed but it hasn't happened yet. MET took three months for a proper bottom formation process to be completed and many of us saw that properly formed and only then backed up the truck in the low $4's and then the rest is history. Agree about the takeover possibility providing support at about these level's. No question a change of culture to a more commercial focus and the removal of huge amounts of duplicated head office overhead would see this as being eps accretive to the likes of say MET especially if it was debt funded by their parent company.

[bottomfeeder]

Just get the feeling with the housing market slowing down, that the market is taking in the loose money. ARV has up 25 percent from a few weeks ago. Next it will be OCA. Let's see 25percent is $1.30.

[Beagle]

I don't think the market takes any comfort from them looking to expand the care side of their business with some possible public private partnership with a DHB they mentioned at the interim result briefing. I reckon that part of their business that's already run as a charity is already too big and expanding it is not in shareholders best interests. Until they start running this company with a genuine focus on what's really in the best interests of shareholders its likely this will remain the runt of the litter. Bottoming process still has a way to run in my opinion.

[bottomfeeder]

I don't think the market takes any comfort from them looking to expand the care side of their business with some possible public private partnership with a DHB they mentioned at the interim result briefing. I reckon that part of their business that's already run as a charity is already too big and expanding it is not in shareholders best interests. Until they start running this company with a genuine focus on what's really in the best interests of shareholders its likely this will remain the runt of the litter. Bottoming process still has a way to run in my opinion.

Got to have some respect for your opinion, from past posts, but this really seems like a downramping to buy in at a lower price. Run as a charity? Doubt it. Bottoming process has a way to run? Doubt it.
I have said it before it may get back to $1, but not for long,, buyers will come in and load up very quickly. No doubt Beagle is one of them.

[couta1]

Got to have some respect for your opinion, from past posts, but this really seems like a downramping to buy in at a lower price. Run as a charity? Doubt it. Bottoming process has a way to run? Doubt it.
I have said it before it may get back to $1, but not for long,, buyers will come in and load up very quickly. No doubt Beagle is one of them. Running with the hares and hunting with the hounds comes to mind.

[Beagle]

Had another look at the interim financial statements presentation and I see that they really only just reached the point of inflection at the half year where 50% of their units are premium revenue, care suite, or independent living unit. So the sobering reality with care costs where they are at present is that about 49% of the current units, (grossly Govt underfunded basic care units) is being run as a charity. Given the value of these very small rooms that are grossly underfunded is very modest compared to other premium rooms, care suites and independent living units my estimate is that about 20% of one's capital invested in OCA is basically of a philanthropic nature, supporting the charitable side of their business.

To me this explains the discount to NTA because somewhere around 20% of the NTA is completely unproductive capital.

My contention is its no market accident that OCA is the only one in this sector to trade at a discount to NTA and this discount is genuinely warranted. FOOP (Fear of over paying) is alive and well with OCA as it quite rightly should be.

In five years time as the glacial speed of their business redevelopment program finally starts to transform this company the ~30% of units that are still basic underfunded care will probably amount to something like only 10-12% of the NTA. Hopefully they will move even further away from loss making activities after that.

Does it fit my long term investment objectives ?. Thank you Ferg, that's a timely question. A 4% unimputed dividend yield is absolutely pathetic so its an epic fail in terms of conferring retirement income on me. A slow boat to China with capital gains but maybe another 4%-5% per annum makes it a hold for me but only having a modest SUM of shares seems like the right fit for me. Chasing real capital growth in this sector should be done SUM where else in my opinion and only after watching TA closely on that one.

Disc: I am going to continue holding my modest allocation but I am no longer interested in adding, (no more coin tosses, sorry), unless it goes under the original IPO price. Share price gains from here are probably going to be as exciting as watching grass grow during a drought. Ouch, there I said it !


Got to have some respect for your opinion, from past posts, but this really seems like a downramping to buy in at a lower price. Run as a charity? Doubt it. Bottoming process has a way to run? Doubt it.
I have said it before it may get back to $1, but not for long,, buyers will come in and load up very quickly. No doubt Beagle is one of them.

I think you may have overlooked this post of mine from 3 days ago. Clearly I think these are a very slow burn and I'm not especially enthusiastic about them. If you bring up a 3 month chart you will see that the 30 day moving average has yet to be broken through to the upside. If the shares can get to $1.07 and stay above that for a few days then in my opinion after that you could make the case there's a fairly good argument that the bottoming process has been reasonably well established.
MET took just on 3 months to establish a firm bottom in the low $4's. We're just over one month into this is how I read the chart.

[ralph]

Got to have some respect for your opinion, from past posts, but this really seems like a downramping to buy in at a lower price. Run as a charity? Doubt it. Bottoming process has a way to run? Doubt it.
I have said it before it may get back to $1, but not for long,, buyers will come in and load up very quickly. No doubt Beagle is one of them.

I think they are good solid reasons/opinions for beagles pessimism / lack off enthusiasm for the current potential bottoming out hoped for by holders myself Included .
A true downramper a few of them about in this forum would call it a dog and say it was worth a lot less( some silly price ) in their opinion without any good reasons for backing up that most of the time .
I aint saying he is 100% correct but its not bouncing back yet ! and when or if it goes below one dollar you are correct buyers will emerge bigtime me included and happen the beagle !!! unless the covid or something else hits hard .

[winner69]

Stuffed it up

[winner69]

Wise words.

I still say "patience my dear fellows, patience".

The more I look at the OCA accounts the more I am peeling away the layers of the onion (no easy task, but I am getting there). Underlying profit is trying to strip away IFRS impacts and focus on what is close to cash accounting based on activity. Looking only at the property side for now given that seems to the focus of this thread, building a new facility adds nothing to underlying profit per se. It is the sales of those new builds that adds to underlying profit (and of course resales). Whereas a new build adds to reported NPAT through revaluations, as in this complex cost "x" to build but it is now worth "y" under IFRS. Much like the brownfield developments are worth "x" when purchased, but are worth "y" once they are consented for multiple units etc. OCA has multiple layers of revaluations, but none of which matter for underlying earnings.

Given the relatively healthy development margins over recent years (where "y" is consistently higher than "x"), and the demand for such facilities seems insatiable, I view the risk to new build margins and the flow of sales as relatively low. Increased construction costs will result in higher property values and I expect Management will do what they can to control costs. This plus resales should maintain underlying profit. Yes there is a signalled dip in new build margins as the mix between cities and regions changes, but population density + demand suggests the mix may change back AND the impact may be insulated somewhat by high resale margins. Keep in mind resale margin is the difference between the new ORA value and the ORA value paid by the previous tenant.

Given the average tenure for units is 7 years and apartments is 5 years, resale margins are calculated versus these old values. Would someone like to check the maths - what are the compounded growth rates for property over the last 5 and 7 years? If some residents are currently living longer than expected due to the pandemic health initiatives, this merely pushes out the resale by a year or more, which will still result in a higher resale value than that tenant paid. Hence I come back to patience my dear fellows, patience. Resale margins are here to stay...but that is not all...

In addition, a higher overall ORA value results in a higher Management Fee given it is a % of the ORA. A higher ORA value means higher deferred management fee (DMF) income for OCA. Whilst these are accrued onto the Balance Sheet according to the ORA contracts, they are released to the P&L based on expected occupancy durations. So a growing "deferred management fee" on the liability side of the Balance Sheet is a GOOD thing. I say it is good because it is not a liability that will ever crystallise through a cash payment, rather it is revenue that has not yet been put into the P&L. Not all reported liabilities will result in a cash outflow for a business. And this growing balance is evidence of higher future DMF revenues (see * below).

In summary more developments = more activity, and inflation + time = higher values; more activity times higher values = higher revenues and profits for OCA. This is what I call the snowball effect. OCA have multiple snowballs in play, where each is at a different stage. Some snowballs take 8 years to extract full value. As to how the developments are funded, and the potential impact on EPS which Beagle touched on, will have to wait for another day.

*Homework: check out the concept of "embedded value" in the OCA annual and interim reports.

That said, if you want a faster return on your money then maybe follow JBMurc's mining picks on the ASX! (not investment advice).


I bring this great post of Ferg to the top because it seems that this will be the last company related post Ferg makes on Sharetrader

Something seems to have happened behind the scenes on here. See his last few posts on the Fergs Playlist - Music I Work To thread.

We will be poorer for his absence

Thanks Ferg fir your input

[Beagle]

Really really :( :( if Ferg stops sharing his excellent thoughts on here. He's made so many awesome posts so far in his short time with us what he's shared with us in just a few hundred posts must surely be of all time record value in terms of the size and value of the contribution's he's made. Please keep posting Ferg, we who really value your posts will make sure you get your rightful reputation back in no time at all !

[Rawz]

Well said Beagle- Agree!!

[Muse]

I bring this great post of Ferg to the top because it seems that this will be the last company related post Ferg makes on Sharetrader

Something seems to have happened behind the scenes on here. See his last few posts on the Fergs Playlist - Music I Work To thread.

We will be poorer for his absence

Thanks Ferg fir your input

I would be gutted if Ferg leaves - very astute, analytical and funny.

Ferg dont go!

[ralph]

Don't go ferg solid poster the forum needs you & posters like you & whats going on is he being cyber bullied !!!!

[RupertBear]

Agree with everything that has been said so far. It would be a HUGE loss if you stopped posting Ferg, :( You have shared many valuable insights for which we are very grateful. Personally I have always found your posts to be exceptionally reasoned and helpful so I cant for the life of me fathom what has gone on. Please stay!

[couta1]

With an avg price of $1.40 its time to start selling parcels of these pups for a loss and buying back cheaper with the goal of ending up with more shares (Not a strategy for the faint hearted but better than watching paint dry for the next year or so) Should help keep the price in a tight trading range for a while longer. Lol

[ralph]

With an avg price of $1.40 its time to start selling parcels of these pups for a loss and buying back cheaper with the goal of ending up with more shares (Not a strategy for the faint hearted but better than watching paint dry for the next year or so) Should help keep the price in a tight trading range for a while longer. Lol
Someone advocated that a couple of months ago on this thread and got advised to hold tight by everyone , we all make that mistake once or twice

[couta1]

Someone advocated that a couple of months ago on this thread and got advised to hold tight by everyone , we all make that mistake once or twice Well it is holding tight but just adding more shares in the mean time by shorting your own shares.

[Beagle]

Brought up a 3 month chart this morning. This is making progress in building a base, no question but more work is required. Getting very close to the 30 day moving average but not really breaking up through it yet.

Just for others benefit, I have more than enough of these pups already, I tossed my super reliable 1974 Commonwealth games coin this morning, heads its a BUY, tails its a hold...drum roll please.....it came up HEADS !

[percy]

Brought up a 3 month chart this morning. This is making progress in building a base, no question but more work is required. Getting very close to the 30 day moving average but not really breaking up through it yet.

Just for others benefit, I have more than enough of these pups already, I tossed my super reliable 1974 Commonwealth games coin this morning, heads its a BUY, tails its a hold...drum roll please.....it came up HEADS !

"No surprises here.".............................lol.

[Beagle]

I was surprised it came up heads after several tails lol

[percy]

I was surprised it came up heads after several tails lol

I am not....lol.

[winner69]

Brought up a 3 month chart this morning. This is making progress in building a base, no question but more work is required. Getting very close to the 30 day moving average but not really breaking up through it yet.

Just for others benefit, I have more than enough of these pups already, I tossed my super reliable 1974 Commonwealth games coin this morning, heads its a BUY, tails its a hold...drum roll please.....it came up HEADS !

Good news Beagle --- the covariances of OCA/SUM share prices has turned and mathematically it looks as if drom here on in OCA shareprice will outperform SUM share price ..... deep dive into the data for that graph I post regularly that has shown SUM consistently out SUM (OCA % SUM trend)

So going OCA good move .... as long as sector doesn't remain in the doldrums ....but if that happens then OCA shouldn't go down as fast as SUM

[Beagle]

Good news Beagle --- the covariances of OCA/SUM share prices has turned and mathematically it looks as if drom here on in OCA shareprice will outperform SUM share price ..... deep dive into the data for that graph I post regularly that has shown SUM consistently out SUM (OCA % SUM trend)

So going OCA good move .... as long as sector doesn't remain in the doldrums ....but if that happens then OCA shouldn't go down as fast as SUM

I'm waiting for SUM to break out of its current downtrend. $9 would be nice.

End of the financial year for OCA on Thursday and reporting will be late May. Maybe if they believe they have fair value $1.42 NAV per the half year analysts briefing, or whatever it is when they report in May 2022 they should announce a share buyback of their own because its seems there's no shortage of sellers who think its only worth $1.05

[davflaws]

I'm overweight and underwater - I'd tell you all to BUY! but I'm probably no better as a ramper than I am as a trader.

[Muse]

I'm overweight and underwater - I'd tell you all to BUY! but I'm probably no better as a ramper than I am as a trader.

classic post davflaws - enjoyed that

[aperitif]

The great Rob Vinall recently talking about Ryman, but very specific to OCA and the industry. From 1:28

https://youtu.be/uGDmvRWAgy8

Enjoy

[BlackPeter]

The great Rob Vinall recently talking about Ryman, but very specific to OCA and the industry. From 1:28

https://youtu.be/uGDmvRWAgy8

Enjoy

Cheers for this link. While Robert Vinall's QA session has no references to OCA - and only the last question to Ryman (and retirement villages in general) - he is a great speaker and very capable to convey the investor perspective ...

This Q/A might belong into a thread "how to become a better investor". There are definitly worse ways to spend an hour and a half :):

[winner69]

Did i just see that Harbour/Jarden lower their stake in OCA and increase their stake in My Food Bag

That’s funny

[Poolboy]

Did i just see that Harbour/Jarden lower their stake in OCA and increase their stake in My Food Bag

That’s funny

Wow, how to lose your money LOL

[bull....]

no its called sell the high one buy the low one

[couta1]

no its called sell the high one buy the low one No its called punting, sell a solid stock with long term tailwinds and buy a random mutt with no wind.

[bottomfeeder]

Out on a limb here. I feel the rebalancing prior to 31 March is finished for those with that balance date. Also those holding on revenue account will have sold their more cost holdings and bought lower cost holdings thus getting their tax deduction and new cost price for their holdings. From now we should see steady increase in SP to 1.10 over the next two weeks.
Could be wrong, but all this means is don't sell in the short term. No fault no foul.

[ralph]

No its called punting, sell a solid stock with long term tailwinds and buy a random mutt with no wind.
I could think of many better punts than sick bag

[Poolboy]

Not a good idea when the low one is the low one for a big reason.

It was a success when there was no competition. But now there is lots of (better) competition, hence the sad looking line on the graph and poor sales.

[Greekwatchdog]

Really depends if your a long term investor vs a short term trader/momentum trader on what your views are. If you keep looking at this daily then it looks like a sick pup, but if you have long term views then it doesn't. Each to there own on how you view respective stocks including this one.

[winner69]

Really depends if your a long term investor vs a short term trader/momentum trader on what your views are. If you keep looking at this daily then it looks like a sick pup, but if you have long term views then it doesn't. Each to there own on how you view respective stocks including this one.

I have a long term view (and held for a while) and Oceania is still a sick pup …..one that might not fully recover ….but its adoring owners think it’s the most beautiful dog in the world and hoping it’ll get better

[Greekwatchdog]

I have a long term view (and held for a while) and Oceania is still a sick pup …..one that might not fully recover ….but its adoring owners think it’s the most beautiful dog in the world and hoping it’ll get better

Same as you Winner, but worrying about this sick pup daily does ones head in. Time will tell on this. Guess you just need to decide how much time your prepared to play.

[couta1]

Same as you Winner, but worrying about this sick pup daily does ones head in. Time will tell on this. Guess you just need to decide how much time your prepared to play. Well the TA peoples have failed to observe that the bollie bands are sqeezing together and the MACD is on a positive move, just saying.

[Greekwatchdog]

Well the TA peoples have failed to observe that the bollie bands are sqeezing together and the MACD is on a positive move, just saying.

All these Technical's just drive a man/dog to throw a coin and hope. I will just trust my research and insight just like I did with ATM. Heads you win, Tails you win.

[Beagle]

All these Technical's just drive a man/dog to throw a coin and hope. I will just trust my research and insight just like I did with ATM. Heads you win, Tails you win.

Broke up through the 30 day moving average today. That's good !

[winner69]

Broke up through the 30 day moving average today. No more coin tosses required. Not interested in adopting any more, I have more than enough already.
I'm expecting more punters to adopt this sad unloved mutt based on the technical's next week and they'll be hoping this will race along the beach of life like a speedy greyhound so I have posted a helpful video to show what sort of progress people can expect. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQ3Q9SJDgsE

I assumed you saw thse tight bolly bands as well ……break out ……price will spring up like a released rubber band ……could be 120 by Easter

[Waltzing]

Breaking out from its 2017 mid point OCT....

gosh what a hound....:eek2:

as winner(^n) says.... speedy as a ?

is it simply like the increased buying in the COMP PROPs this week.

Money seeking safe havens in a storm.

WHS performance last week looked more interesting.

Some drops in residential property prices last week.

[Beagle]

I assumed you saw thse tight bolly bands as well ……break out ……price will spring up like a released rubber band ……could be 120 by Easter

Who knows, stranger things have happened before. Often when something builds a base and breaks out through the 30 day moving average the price really does spring up with remarkable speed. They're reporting next month so maybe the excitement is building and people are looking forward to prospects for the current FY23 year ? Waimarie coming in 23, that's bound to give them a real springboard to growth.
Gosh, maybe the base for a springboard has been built ?

[winner69]

Who knows, stranger things have happened before. Often when something builds a base and breaks out through the 30 day moving average the price really does spring up with remarkable speed. They're reporting next month so maybe the excitement is building and people are looking forward to prospects for the current FY23 year ? Waimarie coming in 23, that's bound to give them a real springboard to growth.
Gosh, maybe the base for a springboard has been built ?

Last time the price broke through 110 it sprung to 140 and after a short pause another spring to 160

Probably do this again ..... esp if punters buy before the expected boomer report in May

[Beagle]

Last time the price broke through 110 it sprung to 140 and after a short pause another spring to 160

Probably do this again ..... esp if punters buy before the expected boomer report in May

I'm starting to worry I might not have enough. Could be a great trade, (even if it does have an issue or two) $1.07 to $1.60, ~ 50% upside WOW !
Brokers all think its worth $1.60 ! https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

[ralph]

I'm starting to worry I might not have enough

Beagle gets F O M O

[YoungBull]

I'm starting to worry I might not have enough. Could be a great trade, (even if it does have an issue or two) $1.07 to $1.60, ~ 50% upside WOW !
Brokers all think its worth $1.60 ! https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

Absolutely no offence intended with this Beagle, I understand you’re quite a brilliant investor. I find it very very interesting watching over the past few years how you are impacted by market sentiment. Just one day of upward movement on the TA side and suddenly you’re citing facts that existed well before the movement. Both a 50% upside and optimistic broker estimations are not fundamental strengths in the stock. The facts/issues faced by OCA prior to this movement were actual fundamental considerations. What has changed your mind so much?

[mike2020]

Don't question it just follow the herd, it's always the one trailing the pack that gets picked off.

[YoungBull]

I’ve been accumulating heavily at 1.05. I’ve held since 70 cents. But I believe in this long term.

[mike2020]

Yes it is a long term hold but sentiment drives the market and OCA has extreme tidal movements and people love to pick high and low tide. It has seemed like slack water for quite a while but it has done that for years at a time in the past. While it is a buy at the moment how long it stays that way is the question. FOMO on OCA seems quite amusing really.

[Beagle]

Absolutely no offence intended with this Beagle, I understand you’re quite a brilliant investor. I find it very very interesting watching over the past few years how you are impacted by market sentiment. Just one day of upward movement on the TA side and suddenly you’re citing facts that existed well before the movement. Both a 50% upside and optimistic broker estimations are not fundamental strengths in the stock. The facts/issues faced by OCA prior to this movement were actual fundamental considerations. What has changed your mind so much?

Post was a bit tongue in cheek, not sure that came out very well. No more coin tossing either. I'll put my serious hat on now. Here's my updated view.

Challenges I've alluded to at quite some length are enduring but if you bring up a 3 month chart its clear that there's now a reasonable chance that over about the last 2 months a base may have been built and it may be reasonable to now say all known headwinds are built into the current price. Don't fight TA is something I have learned from long experience. There's a clear break up through the 30 day moving average and they're reporting next month. It could be a speculative accumulate here for a moderate rerate into the late May reporting date or it might just range trade here for some further period of time. Time will tell but I think the chances of a big fall below $1 are looking a bit slimmer than they were several weeks ago.

First signs are emerging that we might be past the Covid peak so on a risk reward basis on say a 2-3 year view the playing field looks ever so slightly tilted towards the reward side. I note on a 5 year chart, apart from when Covid first hit this has a reasonable looking baseline of about $1. I'm not expecting great things but it would be nice if this could get back to around $1.40 sometime in the next year or two.

We've also ticked over into a new financial year and I'm always trying to sniff around the next corner so I'm thinking not so much about what this year (FY23), might look like but what FY24 could be like with sales of the new Waimarie development in full swing.

Obviously you're right that there is nothing new in the analysts views, they have been at $1.60 for quite some time but maybe in the medium term, say 3-4 years, they will be right ?

[winner69]

Summerset March quarter sales data out in next few days

Tough quarter for sales but if the Summerset numbers look pretty good investor confidence in the sector could return pretty quick

Oceania will ride this wave until they come out with their own numbers …….and unless half two has been a disaster expect to see underlying earnings well over $60m…….and Oceania not disclosing anything for a while would say no disasters have happened.

[winner69]

Oceania haven't come out and said Underlying Earnings won't be about $60m (they gave the impression that was about what they going to do in F22)

Arvida haven't come out and said Underlying Earnins won't now be in excess of $67m (the number they gave when they raised all that capital)

So Oceania earnings up 20% and Arvida earnings up 30% plus - announcements to come soon

Won't be long before the dogs of the sector share prices will take off ...... in next week or so I reckon

And we'll all be happy except those waiting for sub $1 or even 80 cents

[Rawz]

Well I got top up at $1.04 and now thinking buy as much as possible on Monday. The doom and gloom is over.

Never can hold enough of these

[Waltzing]

Chart aligns with OCT 2017 ... W(>=n) might be on the money with that call if you draw the lines with your pastels.


and they make earnings..worth a punt.

Sub 80 can be removed from the chart W(<=n) as it was a global near Force majeure.

[Beagle]

Well I got top up at $1.04 and now thinking buy as much as possible on Monday. The doom and gloom is over.

Never can hold enough of these

LOL well it turns out you can. Lets be real here, the fall over the last 6-7 months from $1.59 has been pretty brutal and anyone holding heaps all the way down has been really busy licking their wounds. Maybe they might heal up nicely over the next few years ?

$60m plus underlying sounds really good Winner but what we're really looking for is that total comprehensive income to be over $100m.

[Waltzing]

"total comprehensive income"

what will inflation do for labour demands over the next 12 months?

will there be nursing strikes once the pressure comes off hospitals if it does?

right now it saving lives but one wonders if there will be a major threat of strikes come the spring?

They may want some major money and patience might run out over the winter months.

still see rising cost pressures limiting the profits in this sector going forward.

sometimes when the numbers are flashing red one wants to believe its all going to turn green soon.

[Beagle]

Always a good idea to hedge your bets mate, as per my signature line.

[nztx]

LOL well it turns out you can. Lets be real here, the fall over the last 6-7 months from $1.59 has been pretty brutal and anyone holding heaps all the way down has been really busy licking their wounds. Maybe they might heal up nicely over the next few years ?

$60m plus underlying sounds really good Winner but what we're really looking for is that total comprehensive income to be over $100m.

Looking at the trajectory - a wee bounce then downwards some more, or now on the bottom ? :)

Pre Covid times SP may suggest more move to lower bottom than now .. but who knows

Think best to wait to see if there's new recent low appearing in a week or two's time ;)

[Waltzing]

"Always a good idea to hedge your bets mate"

just saying as MR B has often hinted that labour cost pressures exist.

and will they have to cut prices or discount stock on hand going forward?

[Beagle]

Looking at the trajectory - a wee bounce then downwards some more, or now on the bottom ? :)

Pre Covid times SP may suggest more move to lower bottom than now .. but who knows

Think best to wait to see if there's new recent low appearing in a week or two's time ;)
One thing is for absolute certain mate. It will either go up, down, sideways, get delisted or taken over lol


"Always a good idea to hedge your bets mate"

just saying as MR B has often hinted that labour cost pressures exist.

and will they have to cut prices or discount stock on hand going forward?

That's not in the frame in my opinion.

[winner69]

The much touted point of inflection was only management talking about care earnings growing (after that point in time)

There was always going to be a delay / lag before this point of inflection had any point on the share price

Well, its happened -- as far as share price is concerned the point of inflection occurred at 1.30pm last Thursday when share price hit 103

Si its all up, up and away from then ..... almost +4% since ..... probably another 10% this week

[Rawz]

I think you’ll be right (again) Winner.

Having thought about it more it was way oversold. Management and major shareholders were happy to buy big around $1.40.

I posted a week or so ago to back the truck up but Beagle said no. Instead I only increased my holding a measly 15% at $1.04. Wasted opportunity?

[Greekwatchdog]

I think you’ll be right (again) Winner.

Having thought about it more it was way oversold. Management and major shareholders were happy to buy big around $1.40.

I posted a week or so ago to back the truck up but Beagle said no. Instead I only increased my holding a measly 15% at $1.04. Wasted opportunity?

Depends on how long your in for. Bloody hard to pick bottom unless you have a crystal ball. You have to ask yourself, are you a long term investor or a trader?

[Beagle]

I think you’ll be right (again) Winner.

Having thought about it more it was way oversold. Management and major shareholders were happy to buy big around $1.40.

I posted a week or so ago to back the truck up but Beagle said no. Instead I only increased my holding a measly 15% at $1.04. Wasted opportunity?

Difference between then and now is that its broken up through the 30 day MA so we have some real TA support for not just the bottom being in but also the prospect of a new uptrend. From memory, last week I did comment it was getting very close.