OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bottomfeeder]

Just an afterthought, I will put some widow stays on the first floor windows, just in case the SP keeps going down.

[winner69]

Don’t forget we are past the ‘point of inflection’

Think X marked the inflection point …or was it Y

[Snoopy]

Just an afterthought, I will put some widow stays on the first floor windows, just in case the SP keeps going down.


Sounds a bit morbid. Permanently propping open the first floor windows of widows missing their dear departed husbands. Letting that cold air rush in. Then hoping those widows will jump out committing hari kari, and so freeing up the room for the next resident? But I guess room turnover would bump up the OCA share price?

SNOOPY

[Baa_Baa]

While I'm not enjoying seeing the capital value of my overly large holding reducing daily to well under what the company could wind-up and sell it's assets for, I look to more encouraging thoughts because I have a genuine longer term horizon with this one, possibly past my own time.

Whatever the market decides about the day to day price of the shares:

- the business is sound, it will continue to be successful, grow and profitable.
- the market for it's services just keeps growing and will do for decades.
- the future footprint of revenue generating accomodation is embedded, years in advance.
- earnings will continue to be paid out to shareholders, or just get more cheap discounted shares with the DRP.
- I have no need or desire to return my capital, incurring trading fees and tax, also for some capital loses.

A sell means; share sale price achieved (perhaps a capital loss for some), minus loss of future earnings, minus trade fees which can be substantial for a larger holding, minus tax if in profit. That's a lot of minuses.

Long term investing is a mindset. I consider it a personal achievement to have been able, at least in my own mind, to distinguish between how I manage my longs, versus my momentums, or my punts. Other members here have been influential in all of these areas, it's a privilege to have had so many wise lessons shared.

They're all different investing methods, and only a few of the myriad of others. It helps me to have written down a playbook for each that I can refer to when circumstances happen in each investing situation. My OCA playbook is:

- don't look at the share price every day, it's not important
- except, last time this happened (only a couple of years ago) I got a second truckload for peanuts :O
- tell the broker to say 'shut the **** up' if I panic and call to sell
- ignore almost everything on Sharetrader, except a few bias confirming posts ;)
- find something else to worry about, this isn't worthy of worry.
- check what other RV's are selling at a ridiculous discount, get some.

Have a nice night.

[Rawz]

“ugly mange infested mutt”

lol.. too good.

The SP has become comical. I would sell but can’t see any value elsewhere. OCA looking cheap as chips. Should buy more.. but we are all waiting for $1. Maybe it won’t come. Too much money on the side lines waiting for it ?

[Waltzing]

1 .0 ? SP a BUY?

depends really. If the last 5 years of P&L hasnt returned anything much then unless you have a huge model that is Quant grade its become a high risk stock until proven otherwise.

NTA doesnt mean much at the moment but if the 10's moderate .

wont bet against the Beagle though.

[nztx]

At least with this ugly mange infested mutt, you get a decent discount to NTA unlike all the other mutts in this trashed sector.


Don't whisper too loudly .. the Scandanavian mob that snatched the MetLifeCare collection at discount rates might be looking & hungry again :)

[winner69]

Nothing worse than seeing the cash you gave a company when they held the begging tin out lose so much value so quickly.

Most paid $1.30 didn't they ...whoops

And the last few DRPs haven't been 'profitable' I'd hazard a guess.

Oceania and Arvida 'cheapest' stocks of the sector - maybe it is this ongoing raising of capital for diminishing returns is the reason for this 'cheapness'

Disc never given cash directly to either company..... existing shareholders have got my cash over the years and others have given me cash for shares ....by the popular calculation method used by many well ahead

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/credit-law-impact-reinz-figures-show-house-sales-drop-to-lowest-levels-since-1992-in-some-regions/SJ75GNJCRK3FUTPCSOG6FJ6SRM/

Better not annualise the 6.3% drop in Auckland house prices last month...we don't need any help feeling glum at the moment.
Suppose the near halving of sales volume might get reversed and normalise again when the Govt's investigation into the application of new consumer credit finance laws helps the banks understand them better....or maybe the "rocket scientists" in power have no idea what they're doing ?

Market merely front running a collapse in house prices this year ? You folks be the judge.

Just as well nationwide medium prices only dropped 2.2% last month...we can annualise that without any blood pressure issues, that's only dropping at a rate of 26% per annum which isn't too bad and would only wipe out last year's real estate gains so no worries, nothing to see here, or maybe this is the start of a multi year pullback in real estate as dramatically higher and increasing further still, interest rates cripple recent home buyers ? Interesting times.

Thing is, most people need to sell their house to get into a retirement unit and if sales have halved, that could be a nasty big "fly in the ointment".

[bottomfeeder]

While I'm not enjoying seeing the capital value of my overly large holding reducing daily to well under what the company could wind-up and sell it's assets for, I look to more encouraging thoughts because I have a genuine longer term horizon with this one, possibly past my own time.

Whatever the market decides about the day to day price of the shares:

- the business is sound, it will continue to be successful, grow and profitable.
- the market for it's services just keeps growing and will do for decades.
- the future footprint of revenue generating accomodation is embedded, years in advance.
- earnings will continue to be paid out to shareholders, or just get more cheap discounted shares with the DRP.
- I have no need or desire to return my capital, incurring trading fees and tax, also for some capital loses.

A sell means; share sale price achieved (perhaps a capital loss for some), minus loss of future earnings, minus trade fees which can be substantial for a larger holding, minus tax if in profit. That's a lot of minuses.

Long term investing is a mindset. I consider it a personal achievement to have been able, at least in my own mind, to distinguish between how I manage my longs, versus my momentums, or my punts. Other members here have been influential in all of these areas, it's a privilege to have had so many wise lessons shared.

They're all different investing methods, and only a few of the myriad of others. It helps me to have written down a playbook for each that I can refer to when circumstances happen in each investing situation. My OCA playbook is:

- don't look at the share price every day, it's not important
- except, last time this happened (only a couple of years ago) I got a second truckload for peanuts :O
- tell the broker to say 'shut the **** up' if I panic and call to sell
- ignore almost everything on Sharetrader, except a few bias confirming posts ;)
- find something else to worry about, this isn't worthy of worry.
- check what other RV's are selling at a ridiculous discount, get some.

Have a nice night.

I do all of those bad things. Snoopy, the allusion to first floor windows was relating to people jumping out of high rise buildings in the crash if 1929.

I thought about reducing my exposure to OCA a little while ago, as I was getting increasingly uncomfortable with my accumulations. But where do you put the money. I decided that OCA covers all my bases of investment, such as security, long term growth and success and somewhat inflation proofing. Just wish I could pick where the bottom will be. It must be getting there soon.

[Beagle]

I do all of those bad things. Snoopy, the allusion to first floor windows was relating to people jumping out of high rise buildings in the crash if 1929.

I thought about reducing my exposure to OCA a little while ago, as I was getting increasingly uncomfortable with my accumulations. But where do you put the money. I decided that OCA covers all my bases of investment, such as security, long term growth and success and somewhat inflation proofing. Just wish I could pick where the bottom will be. It must be getting there soon.

I sold two thirds of my holding last year at prices from $1.59 down to $1.31. I put that into cash and its still there.
Would I sell the remaining one third free carry stake at the current price ? - Absolutely Not.
Would I buy more at the current price ? No, not yet. I need to see some encouragement on a TA basis that the ~ 6 month downtrend has finished.

What really disappointed me last year was assurances given by Earl Gasparich in the half year call of 22 January 2021 telling analysts and listeners that he believed in future that the cost of care would move in line with Government funding. It didn't and the rampant rate of human resource cost increase under his watch ever since it listed continued right through 2021.

Can our new CEO turn this around or does the culture of the company run so deep that he gets sucked into the vortex of all that matters is providing first class care irrespective of cost and without cost restraint of any kind and shareholders are little more than an inconvenience to be tolerated. As a shareholder I sometimes feel like I'm little more than a quasi employment agent and philanthropist with this company giving away all the business transformation gains to others and getting left with crumbs.

What I want to see and am hoping to see from Brent is a more communicative style to shareholders with quarterly updates in between the half year reporting, leaning in more on new developments with a much higher level of independent living and a more fulsome level of facilities, (model this off the new Hobsonville village they purchased please) as this is a proven formula that's worked very well for Summerset and Ryman.

There is no concrete earnings evidence after nearly 5 years that OCA's business model works well for shareholders, (all we have is talk) so I believe they need to adapt this going forward as the cost of a high care business model is going to be a systemic headwind, (handbrake on company growth) forever and a day.

The first clue to find out whether they are going to be agile and adaptive is their new greenfield development at Pukekohe. If plans when revealed, still revolve around a high level of care units I will see this as a sign the company are not adapting to the tremendous cost pressures involved in providing care. If that's the case my capital is probably better off invested elsewhere over the long run.

There is a reasonably widely held view in the investment community that in times of high inflation "cash is trash". I disagree and believe that cash in hand has two key advantages in times of extreme market volatility.
1. It confers tremendous peace of mind and acts like a shock absorber cushioning the volatility in your portfolio.
2. It confers the advantage of great optionality around buying shares in the future at cheaper prices.

[Waltzing]

Mr B says it all... right now cash is king...

World wide crisis and 3rd world war...

or at least party pallor games of a 3rd world war...

one slip of the button on some fly boy's HUD and whish off goes a rocket ..

[BlackPeter]

Mr B says it all... right now cash is king...

World wide crisis and 3rd world war...

or at least party pallor games of a 3rd world war...

one slip of the button on some fly boy's HUD and whish off goes a rocket ..

How exactly would this slip impact on the demand of elderlies in NZ to get into care?

Obviously - scaremongering is easy ... for traders it might be useful to pump the hype ... and dependant on ones character it might be even fun to scare less experienced investors - but really, what is the point?

Main impact of World War 2 on the NZ economy was that we had the British here to learn to fly their planes in combination with a certain labour shortage given that some of the boys needed for work have been overseas.

Why would this reduce demand or supply for NZ care facilities?

I guess in the medium term we might have some immigration pressure which would bring house prices further up ...

[Bjauck]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/credit-law-impact-reinz-figures-show-house-sales-drop-to-lowest-levels-since-1992-in-some-regions/SJ75GNJCRK3FUTPCSOG6FJ6SRM/

Better not annualise the 6.3% drop in Auckland house prices last month...we don't need any help feeling glum at the moment.
Suppose the near halving of sales volume might get reversed and normalise again when the Govt's investigation into the application of new consumer credit finance laws helps the banks understand them better....or maybe the "rocket scientists" in power have no idea what they're doing ?
….
Government in panic mode over an unintended (presumably?) consequence of its legislation. Or, maybe it wants to shut out more potential first home buyers in order to boost the disgruntled voters in the electorate.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/credit-law-impact-reinz-figures-show-house-sales-drop-to-lowest-levels-since-1992-in-some-regions/SJ75GNJCRK3FUTPCSOG6FJ6SRM/

Better not annualise the 6.3% drop in Auckland house prices last month...we don't need any help feeling glum at the moment.
Suppose the near halving of sales volume might get reversed and normalise again when the Govt's investigation into the application of new consumer credit finance laws helps the banks understand them better....or maybe the "rocket scientists" in power have no idea what they're doing ?

Market merely front running a collapse in house prices this year ? You folks be the judge.

Just as well nationwide medium prices only dropped 2.2% last month...we can annualise that without any blood pressure issues, that's only dropping at a rate of 26% per annum which isn't too bad and would only wipe out last year's real estate gains so no worries, nothing to see here, or maybe this is the start of a multi year pullback in real estate as dramatically higher and increasing further still, interest rates cripple recent home buyers ? Interesting times.

Thing is, most people need to sell their house to get into a retirement unit and if sales have halved, that could be a nasty big "fly in the ointment".

Market front running? or still to react

I always thought this chart ((from UBS) fascinating ... a year old but still tells the story about changes in house prices and changes in sector share prices

[Beagle]

Pretty close correlation there. Thanks for sharing.

[Ferg]

winner - what is the correlation value?

[winner69]

winner - what is the correlation value?

Apparently Rsquared is .34 ----- meaning changes HPI explains 34% of the change in share price (annually) over time ...from UBS

[nztx]

SP Graph is almost as consistent as the MFB down hill trot ;)


getting difficult to see what's going on at the lower end of the slope ;)


even 'Alfred's trumped up look after a collection of dairy dirt' seems to be held
in higher regard :)

[Ferg]

Apparently Rsquared is .34 ----- meaning changes HPI explains 34% of the change in share price (annually) over time ...from UBS
Thanks for that. This shows we tend to see trends / relationships when presented with a graph, but the maths suggests there is more randomness to the data. If you have the data, a good experiment is to offset the correlation calculations whereby one data set may lead the other by 1 to n periods. If you can find a strong calculation (over say 0.7) then one piece of data might be used as a predictor for the other e.g. one data set is pulled forward by a day/week/month or multiples thereof. I'd be curious to see that with your milk price data versus (was it?) housing.

[bottomfeeder]

Government will want to get house prices down, but the rubber band will burst due to the inflationary pressures. Look at Switzerland. Only the very rich own their own homes, everyone else rents from investor companies and banks. They have been though the ups and downs of property supply and demand and prices for so long, and they still cant control it.

[850man]

Government will want to get house prices down, but the rubber band will burst due to the inflationary pressures. Look at Switzerland. Only the very rich own their own homes, everyone else rents from investor companies and banks. They have been though the ups and downs of property supply and demand and prices for so long, and they still cant control it.

Falling house prices combined with rising interest costs is going to lead to the disaster of the late 1980's where many folks mortgage was more than their house was worth. Let's hope that never happens. I think house prices are being held down by low demand with borders closed, once they open up again prices will stabilise

[winner69]

SP Graph is almost as consistent as the MFB down hill trot ;)



Ha ha - that's mean nztx

On a 6 month chart MFB has outperformed OCA (-17% to -30%)..... that's meaner and rather spooky

What's your next observation mate

[nztx]

Ha ha - that's mean nztx

On a 6 month chart MFB has outperformed OCA (-17% to -30%)..... that's meaner and rather spooky

What's your next observation mate


Just filling in time watching for the balloon to go up elsewhere :)

I'll keep you posted on further observations..

[Waltzing]

"what is the point?"

was referring to MR B having sold and kept it as CASH.


OCA share price more likely to be hit by labour pricing and inflation.

But the NZX will get hit if things go bad in europe and that pressure will trigger some more selling in most stocks.

Cash reserves as MR B has right now are prudent.

draw a list of stocks you might want to buy.

[Beagle]

Thanks Waltzing, it feels prudent.
You're quite right about the geopolitical situation in Europe and might I add, it was well called by you about a year ago, so well done to you Sir !
We're already seeing record fuel prices in N.Z. as a direct result of this which is fueling inflation and hurting virtually all companies on the NZX. As for a possible invasion having no effect on share prices...hmmm, some people might be in for a shock !
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/14/investing/russia-ukraine-oil-prices-inflation/index.html

[Cyclical]

Thanks Waltzing, it feels prudent.
You're quite right about the geopolitical situation in Europe and might I add, it was well called by you about a year ago, so well done to you Sir !
We're already seeing record fuel prices in N.Z. as a direct result of this which is fueling inflation and hurting virtually all companies on the NZX. As for a possible invasion having no effect on share prices...hmmm, some people might be in for a shock !
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/14/investing/russia-ukraine-oil-prices-inflation/index.html

Of course there is also the chance that Russia might back down (or the Ukraine on their NATO aspirations) and that's the end of it, in which case do we see a bounce?

[winner69]

Of course there is also the chance that Russia might back down (or the Ukraine on their NATO aspirations) and that's the end of it, in which case do we see a bounce?

Punters will then worry about something else ….the ‘wall of worry’ is standing strong

[Beagle]

Of course there is also the chance that Russia might back down (or the Ukraine on their NATO aspirations) and that's the end of it, in which case do we see a bounce?

My view is that in general the markets decline year to date is predominantly about the wall of worry around other factors.

P.S. Just saw your post Winner and agree that there's still plenty of other bricks in the wall.

[Cyclical]

...draw a list of stocks you might want to buy.

Feel free to share that list, Waltz. Almost a couple of years ago, Beagle had his Covid crash shopping list with target prices...that was fun.

Anyway, decided today that I'd sell a few of my HLG on the bounce and redivert some of that cash to a trodden down OCA. Sold 2 thirds of the OCA last year at about 1.30 and feel 1.06 is a pretty good price to add a few back to the collection, will DCA if it continues to drop.

[Beagle]

The hound did bloody well with that list...got REALLY FAT with profits after that.

[Cyclical]

The hound did bloody well with that list...got REALLY FAT with profits after that.

Indeed, but as recall it, both of us were pretty cautious about going full fang into it early in the piece, still, I no complain.

[winner69]

The hound did bloody well with that list...got REALLY FAT with profits after that.

The Option Value of Cash was pretty high in March 2020 eh

Never discount the Option Value of Cash as a nonsensical thing

[Beagle]

The Option Value of Cash was pretty high in March 2020 eh

Never discount the Option Value of Cash as a nonsensical thing

Sure was mate. March and April 2020 were crazy months.

[startingout]

Thanks for all the views. They are appreciated. I had bought electricity company shares when they were floated by the government. So this is my first Share investment. My OCA order (placed couple of weeks ago) got hit at $1:10 couple of days ago. So very excited to start the investing Journey.

[Waltzing]

Answer is off topic.

suggestion for locals to create a local shopping list.

For NZ specific stocks MR B is far better QD.

Ours will be US , EU and Travel stocks if hit will be a Buy.

There are also other sectors in the US.

[winner69]

Talking of walls I saw this today -

The Berlin Wall stood for 10.316 days. Today it has been gone for 10,316 days

[Beagle]

Talking of walls I saw this today -

The Berlin Wall stood for 10.316 days. Today it has been gone for 10,316 days

That's spooky.

[Bjauck]

Talking of walls I saw this today -

The Berlin Wall stood for 10.316 days. Today it has been gone for 10,316 days A friend of mine said he was born on the day the Wall was statrted and was married on the day in November 1989 when it’s dismantling started! So he must have been married half his life so far today.

[dabsman]

A friend of mine said he was born on the day the Wall was statrted and was married on the day in November 1989 when it’s dismantling started! So he must have been married half his life so far today.

Neally finished the life sentence then ;)

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Waltzing, it feels prudent.
You're quite right about the geopolitical situation in Europe and might I add, it was well called by you about a year ago, so well done to you Sir !
We're already seeing record fuel prices in N.Z. as a direct result of this which is fueling inflation and hurting virtually all companies on the NZX. As for a possible invasion having no effect on share prices...hmmm, some people might be in for a shock !
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/14/investing/russia-ukraine-oil-prices-inflation/index.html

Fair enough. I sometimes forget that not everybody here is an investor ... hey the forum is called "sharetrader" for a reason!

So yes - IF Putin shoots back (a la good old Adolf) and his tanks start rolling, THEN no doubt most indices will drop - for days or weeks. Great opportunities for traders IF they get the timing right.

I doubt however that we will see in three months from an attack still a big dent in the indices ... unless this turns into a full blown world war ...

If it does turn into something big, then it well might take a year or so for stocks to recover (that's the time they needed in WW II). Still - I think that OCA would be one of the less impacted stocks from a potential war in Europe. Obviously - this has nothing to do with the current depression of all retirement stocks ... it is not just Putin worrying investors.

[winner69]

Fair enough. I sometimes forget that not everybody here is an investor ... hey the forum is called "sharetrader" for a reason!

So yes - IF Putin shoots back (a la good old Adolf) and his tanks start rolling, THEN no doubt most indices will drop - for days or weeks. Great opportunities for traders IF they get the timing right.

I doubt however that we will see in three months from an attack still a big dent in the indices ... unless this turns into a full blown world war ...

If it does turn into something big, then it well might take a year or so for stocks to recover (that's the time they needed in WW II). Still - I think that OCA would be one of the less impacted stocks from a potential war in Europe. Obviously - this has nothing to do with the current depression of all retirement stocks ... it is not just Putin worrying investors.

Took 2 years, that's the time they needed in WW II).

Hey BP …you have a great memory for an old bugger …suppose you were a young trader back in those days

[iceman]

Feel free to share that list, Waltz. Almost a couple of years ago, Beagle had his Covid crash shopping list with target prices...that was fun.

Anyway, decided today that I'd sell a few of my HLG on the bounce and redivert some of that cash to a trodden down OCA. Sold 2 thirds of the OCA last year at about 1.30 and feel 1.06 is a pretty good price to add a few back to the collection, will DCA if it continues to drop.

Yes I remember that and recently looked at it. He's back into 70% cash right now, less than 2 years later. . Some people are short term traders and pay tax accordingly, others invest for long term income and capital growth. I sold 3/4 of my small OCA holding in the last 2-4 months realising 150-200% gains.I have no idea what is a good strategy for the next couple of years, but am 90% invested in the market. Cash is not for me.

[ralph]

Anyway, decided today that I'd sell a few of my HLG on the bounce and redivert some of that cash to a trodden down OCA. Sold 2 thirds of the OCA last year at about 1.30 and feel 1.06 is a pretty good price to add a few back to the collection, will DCA if it continues to drop.
Bounced back off 1.050 mayhap its bottomed will it reach One dollar at all ,did you add a few to the collection Cyclical at the bottom !

[Beagle]

Interesting times for this sector. It feels like OCA has been singled out by the market for special treatment, probably because its trading at a material discount to NAV and my perception is coloured with some bias as I'm still holding a six figure stake but the truth is the market in the last 6 months or so has been very tough on all sector participants.
As at close of market today all the sector shares have fallen heavily in the last six months from a high to the current price as follows:-

ARV down 24.2%
SUM down 28.0%
OCA down 31.5%
RYM down 42.3%

There's no way to sugar coat this, its been a really ugly time for this sector and its really hard to say how much further it could fall.

For mine, the only stock I would be prepared to pay a modest premium to NTA for in the current environment based on their track record is SUM, but I am happy to wait as long as it takes for TA to show it has bottomed out in this downtrend. I made the call, (against fairly widespread pushback by others), many years ago when SUM was half the share price of RYM that one day SUM's share price would exceed RYM and so it has come to pass and then plenty more. SUM is the new RYM of this sector and is the only one that deserves a premium to NTA based on their track record of underlying eps growth which has consistently been very, very good unlike all other sector participant's in recent years.

RYM with an NTA of just under $6 and the highest gearing still looks very vulnerable to ongoing underperformance even after underperforming the market for 8 long years already. Their track record ever since Simon Challis left many, many years ago has been anything but stellar so the current >50% premium to NTA is entirely unwarranted.

Forward looking strategy:- If I could get some more OCA around the IPO price of 79 cents that would be nice but better still and possibly even more enticing in the long run is getting back on board SUM at somewhere about $9. I'd be very happy to be on their share register for the long haul. Very high quality stock is that one.

[ralph]

Agree with that Beagle & the 42.3% drop shows that others do as well , but if it got down anywhere near the NTA I would be looking to load up as would most folks

[Beagle]

Agree with that Beagle & the 42.3% drop shows that others do as well , but if it got down anywhere near the NTA I would be looking to load up as would most folks

I'm calling it. RYM is yesterday's market darling and will stay that way. The magic left when Simon Challis left and now they have a new unproven CEO to steer the ship through this stormy sea....good luck with that and I am glad I am not onboard that ship.
If Scott Scouller stays as CEO of SUM, (he's a very bright guy), its quite possible that one day in the years to come we'll see the share price of SUM be double that of RYM ! Now that would be quite SUMthing to see ;)

Brent should do okay with OCA as long as he doesn;t get sucked into the black hole of thinking that the best of care should be provided and cost controls and restraints of any kind doesn't matter one iota :eek2: High quality care needs to be provided on an efficient and effective basis so shareholders get a fair slice of the cake. Surely as a former director of investment banking at Jarden he understands these things ?

[winner69]

Beagle me old mate …. methinks being a former director of investment banking at Jarden actually isn’t the best credentials to run a aged care company….. just methinking.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

With rising rates could we see NTA going backwards? Should any of these trade at a premium to NTA? Given their woeful dividend yields I'd suggest not... More pressure to come for SUM and RYM me thinks.

[dreamcatcher]

Aussie nurses walked of the job today demanding better pay

[Beagle]

With rising rates could we see NTA going backwards? Should any of these trade at a premium to NTA? Given their woeful dividend yields I'd suggest not... More pressure to come for SUM and RYM me thinks.

I'm certainly not going to catch a falling knife with those two but SUM has a fabulous business model and SUM day in the future will be great buying after the new uptrend is confirmed to have started. Lock it in for a truckload in due course when it eventually breaks back up through the 100 day MA I reckon.

[Beagle]

Beagle me old mate …. methinks being a former director of investment banking at Jarden actually isn’t the best credentials to run a aged care company….. just methinking.

From vague memory I think he was involved as part of the IPO process so he probably knew the company really well before he took the CEO position. Time will tell. OCA has an awful LOT to prove in terms of underlying eps.

[Waltzing]

"back on board SUM at somewhere about $9"

:eek2:

[Cyclical]

Bounced back off 1.050 mayhap its bottomed will it reach One dollar at all ,did you add a few to the collection Cyclical at the bottom !
Really not too bothered either way. Happy to scoop up at today's price. Will also be happy to grab more if it continues to slide. One day it will get back to last year's high, even if it has the makings of a mainland cheese advert.

[Brain]

Deleted because I made a mis steak.

[Brain]

Took 2 years, that's the time they needed in WW II).

Hey BP …you have a great memory for an old bugger …suppose you were a young trader back in those days

But how long did it take for the NZ capital Index to recover after 87?

[winner69]

But how long did it take for the NZ capital Index to recover after 87?

NZX50C was 3326 on May 24th 2007 …..went down heaps …and recovered to 3360 on April 18th 2016

So the answer to your question …took nearly nine years for NZX50C to recover post GFC

It’s 4880 at the moment

Bear in mind it was just under 4000 in 1987 before the big crash …took until 2017 to get back there.

[Waltzing]

"4000 in 1987 before the big crash"

to protect you and make your play on OCA safe as Houses...

the legal beagles have been busy pumping out papers on everything in sundry to make the system crash proof.

most of them well intentioned cut and pasted fluff as the legal are worried about there houses and their bank accounts.

AT least to NTA oca looks very attractive but it really needs to show EPS and an increasing NTA.

[Bjauck]

NZX50C was 3326 on May 24th 2007 …..went down heaps …and recovered to 3360 on April 18th 2016

So the answer to your question …took nearly nine years for NZX50C to recover post GFC

It’s 4880 at the moment

Bear in mind it was just under 4000 in 1987 before the big crash It is no wonder that experience added to so many NZ baby boomers preferring investment in residential real estate.

[alokdhir]

It is no wonder that experience added to so many NZ baby boomers preferring investment in residential real estate.

That led to property boom as well as confirmed property as the safest investment on earth ...in last 50 years its proved itself beyond doubt . Property is the safest investment Some individual stocks have done better then property but property people are more comfortable using their maximum leverage while not for shares thus they end up getting much higher returns on their capital . Not easy to shake that truth that property works better for mums and dads investors and easier to sleep too as no daily prices ticking ...its just up and up .... Didn't believe before but had to after seeing its track record of 50 years !!

[BlackPeter]

Took 2 years, that's the time they needed in WW II).

Hey BP …you have a great memory for an old bugger …suppose you were a young trader back in those days

Cheers - but I guess some people are able to learn from history without the need of having lived through the period by themselves :p ;

And yes, it probably depends which index you use and what you take as start of WW2 (annexation of parts of Czechoslovakia in 1938 through to the invasion of Poland in September 1939). It all sounds so familiar in the current context.

Here is the historic DOW Jones ... DOW didn't even drop (but went up slightly) for the first 6 months from the German invasion into Poland. I guess the main message is - nothing terrible happened to the share index in the context of (what we know now) was the worst war the world has seen to date. Sure - Pearl Harbour (i.e. when the war impacted the US) made a bit of a dent to the DOW.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1109BUSM293NNBR

[Curly]

Yet numerous people and companies prospered during the war.

[Bjauck]

Cheers - but I guess some people are able to learn from history without the need of having lived through the period by themselves :p ;

And yes, it probably depends which index you use and what you take as start of WW2 (annexation of parts of Czechoslovakia in 1938 through to the invasion of Poland in September 1939). It all sounds so familiar in the current context.

Here is the historic DOW Jones ... DOW didn't even drop (but went up slightly) for the first 6 months from the German invasion into Poland. I guess the main message is - nothing terrible happened to the share index in the context of (what we know now) was the worst war the world has seen to date. Sure - Pearl Harbour (i.e. when the war impacted the US) made a bit of a dent to the DOW.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1109BUSM293NNBR Yep. American traders probably saw opportunities for profit when hostilities ramped up in Europe, not to mention a possible future boom from increased government spending on arms. After all the USA was mostly neutral (although they made money by selling and leasing equipment and stuff to the UK, the British Commonwealth and allies) until Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in December 1941.

I think Biden has made it clear that US troops won't get involved if Russia attacks the Ukraine.

All Options Are Not on the Table as Biden Moves Troops Closer to Ukraine

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-war.html

[Brain]

NZX50C was 3326 on May 24th 2007 …..went down heaps …and recovered to 3360 on April 18th 2016

So the answer to your question …took nearly nine years for NZX50C to recover post GFC

It’s 4880 at the moment

Bear in mind it was just under 4000 in 1987 before the big crash …took until 2017 to get back there.

Yes and if you adjusted the index for inflation we are still way under it. From a sharemarket perspective a world war is a walk-in the park compared to greed dishonesty and incompetence.

[winner69]

Our Liz (ONZM) having a fabulous run with EBOS and Skellerup this week

Hopefully her run will last a bit longer and Oceania will be her next good news story

[Biscuit]

Our Liz (ONZM) having a fabulous run with EBOS and Skellerup this week

Hopefully her run will last a bit longer and Oceania will be her next good news story

two out of three aint bad

[Beagle]

Nice to see the share price making a very small start towards a bounce back. Have we seen the bottom of this cycle ? Hmmm...I think that's a 50/50 call so I got my super reliable 1974 Commonwealth games dollar coin out, (my very first investment as a kid) and decided to flip it.
Heads we've seen the bottom and its time to start buying this dip.
Tails there's more pain to come and stay away for now...so I flipped it and....drum roll please
It came down...bugger, sorry folks, it was tails.

[Rawz]

Nice to see the share price making a very small start towards a bounce back. Have we seen the bottom of this cycle ? Hmmm...I think that's a 50/50 call so I got my super reliable 1974 Commonwealth games dollar coin out, (my very first investment as a kid) and decided to flip it.
Heads we've seen the bottom and its time to start buying this dip.
Tails there's more pain to come and stay away for now...so I flipped it and....drum roll please
It came down...bugger, sorry folks, it was tails.

Come on Beagle there is this thing called a little white lie.. could have said heads!! :p
there is this huge OCA fan base with cash on the sidelines waiting to pile in. This magic coin of yours could have been the final trigger. Now you have pretty much confirmed this is going to 1 buck :ohmy:

[Beagle]

Come on Beagle there is this thing called a little white lie.. could have said heads!! :p
there is this huge OCA fan base with cash on the sidelines waiting to pile in. This magic coin of yours could have been the final trigger. Now you have pretty much confirmed this is going to 1 buck :ohmy:

Trust me I am just as disappointed as you are. I was looking around for the keys to my truck getting ready to back it up.

[nztx]

Gez did some of mysterious upwards thermals floating around AIR migrate elsewhere ? ;)

[clips]

gee i'm not the only one still holding one of those coins ; )

[Waltzing]

In the old days it was called paper.

Owning the Paper Certificate.

[Baa_Baa]

gee i'm not the only one still holding one of those coins ; )

Ha ha, no your not the only one to have one of those, I have a few, they're unfortunately still only worth a bit less than the amount of sterling silver at the melt ;)

But that's not my lucky dollar, mine is a lucky silver Peace dollar. Quite an impressive US coin from the early and pre 1920's, I had a lot of them once but gave most of them away to my friends so they have a lucky silver dollar as well.

But it's never worked for my investing, so I must have duped all my friends it seems, despite the joy of flipping a 27gm 38mm 90% pure silver coin that some cowboy once spent on a whole round of beers for his mates at the pub.

Who knows how many beers those coins bought, that's the thing with money, it is reusable infinitely, though just in someone elses hands. Quite extraordinary if you delve into it.

Anyway, I recommend not using lucky coins to make your investment decisions .. LOL.

[Beagle]

Ha ha, no your not the only one to have one of those, I have a few, they're unfortunately still only worth a bit less than the amount of sterling silver at the melt ;)

But that's not my lucky dollar, mine is a lucky silver Peace dollar. Quite an impressive US coin from the early and pre 1920's, I had a lot of them once but gave most of them away to my friends so they have a lucky silver dollar as well.

But it's never worked for my investing, so I must have duped all my friends it seems, despite the joy of flipping a 27gm 38mm 90% pure silver coin that some cowboy once spent on a whole round of beers for his mates at the pub.

Who knows how many beers those coins bought, that's the thing with money, it is reusable infinitely, though just in someone elses hands. Quite extraordinary if you delve into it.

Anyway, I recommend not using lucky coins to make your investment decisions .. LOL.

They're only useful when you have no idea which way things are going lol

[ralph]

That Beagle magical commonwealth games dollar seems to have a good prediction rate after all as its going down again after another 2000 covid cases today .
Could I have a loan of the B M C G Dollar for next week ,could save a lot of effort .
P s. keep it to ourselves

[winner69]

These bank economists forecasting house prices down 6% to 13%

If we bother look back when prices down 20% we will able to say bank economists wrong again

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127773155/bigger-house-price-falls-expected-but-not-a-crash-commentators-say

[peat]

It still looks corrective and RSI divergence has formed.
Large sellers at close on Friday cemented in that big red candle tho so that looks bad, but offer was back up to 113 now, so maybe its over.
I'd like to think it can turn from here but apart from the divergence need more evidence before I buy more.

[Beagle]

Hoop saying the market darling of this sector SUM is in trouble in its confirmed downtrend should give plenty of pause for thought.

That and my lucky dollar coin also says stay out, also a very important leading indicator along with the housing market which is also coming "up tails" in a big way at present.

As I drove past Waimarie Street's development yesterday it would appear they are making very good progress and I thought to myself there will be some point in the future where this is worth backing up the truck on and maybe SUM other company in this sector too ;) Not even looking for the keys on either truck to warm them up at this point.

[Biscuit]

These bank economists forecasting house prices down 6% to 13%

If we bother look back when prices down 20% we will able to wrong again

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127773155/bigger-house-price-falls-expected-but-not-a-crash-commentators-say

"....If we bother look back when prices down 20% we will able to wrong again...." and that's after you edited it.

[winner69]

"....If we bother look back when prices down 20% we will able to wrong again...." and that's after you edited it.

But you knew what I meant eh

need a bigger phone

[Bjauck]

These bank economists forecasting house prices down 6% to 13%

If we bother look back when prices down 20% we will able to say bank economists wrong again

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127773155/bigger-house-price-falls-expected-but-not-a-crash-commentators-say

If house prices drop 20% they will still be up by about 10% from two years ago, at the beginning of NZ’s covid era. Have OCA Ora’s prices increased by that rate?

Currently I think NZ shares are up by less than 2% over the last two years - way below the current 36% increase in NZ house prices.

[BlackPeter]

These bank economists forecasting house prices down 6% to 13%

If we bother look back when prices down 20% we will able to say bank economists wrong again

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127773155/bigger-house-price-falls-expected-but-not-a-crash-commentators-say

I guess the relevant question would be - how much of this housing price drop is already priced into OCA and the other retirement villages? Given that some of them dropped already by 30% plus to their recent peak, market might be positively surprised if house prices just drop by e.g. 20% (which would be less than 2/3rd of last years gain).

And lets not forget - we start to open the borders (sort of) for the first time in two years and more than a million Kiwis overseas locked out of NZ might want to come home. Will be interesting to see what this does to our housing market?

Remember - markets are forward looking :t_up:

Ah yes - and just remember how good the analysts have been in the past to predict house prices ... while they predicted 10 out of the last 2 slumps, they often don't even get the direction right (though if they say "up", they are much more likely to be correct, then if they say "down" ;) - I guess that's why analysts like to be optimists :) ;

[mcdongle]

I wonder how much their developments are going to be held up due to shortages, i was talking to an old colleague and the GIB shortage is real, 14 week wait and then its rationed after that.

[James108]

I wonder how much their developments are going to be held up due to shortages, i was talking to an old colleague and the GIB shortage is real, 14 week wait and then its rationed after that.

I would assume developers and their contractors on the scale of Oceania are much better placed to deal with these lead times than smaller developers. Although no doubt it will have some impact.

[Beagle]

I would assume developers and their contractors on the scale of Oceania are much better placed to deal with these lead times than smaller developers. Although no doubt it will have some impact.

Yes the team working on the Waimarie development are huge https://www.argon.co.nz/

[Posh]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/ce7bcf31-1d6f-4dba-81c6-aae0cfd7bcbaI went past the Waimarie St development last week and construction is moving along - sorry can't seem to upload photo but looks about 3/4 storeys high already

[bottomfeeder]

Waimarie Development not set to be completed until middle of 2023. Thats why I believe the SP is in the doldrums. Looks like it will be 12 months before it reaches its true potential. Still I also dont believe it will get much cheaper than it is now.

[winner69]

So no more of this 'point of infliction' stuff

The new story is - 'keep the faith - we have Waimarie'

Like that - sounds less painful

[Beagle]

I have come around to thinking the year ended 31 March 2023 is not going to be that crash hot at all with ongoing excessive Covid costs, more disputes with this hapless incompetent Govt over care fees and a very significant decrease in house prices. I think the market is merely front running that reality a bit and OCA is no screaming bargain where its priced right now.

I am more hopeful that FY24 will see some pretty modest eps growth but only if the extraordinary rate of cost pressures with staff can be reasonably controlled. The problem that I foresee is that there's real potential in the healthcare sector for those working in it to think they deserve ongoing MASSIVE annual increases in their pay rates and for management obsessed with all things care being the be all and end all to kowtow to any demands no matter how unreasonable they may be.

In a nutshell, because of this pandemic I think the chances of rampant wage cost inflation really taking off are worse than they have been in the past and management have a very poor track record of trying to control costs. Australian nurses striking despite their pay being heaps more than here may be a potender of trouble coming in the care sector.

The other day, chatting about this to a friend I described Nurses as the "hottest profession in the world" I wasn't referring to how a pretty nurse in uniform can be nice eye candy, rather that the world-wide demand for trained nurses means they can command HUGE money overseas. Implications for pay rates here...?

Maybe $50 per hour pay rates 2 years from now ? seeing annual income before overtime of over $100,000 for nurses, maybe even more ? Sure, few would argue they're not worth it with the risks they are taking but will the Government fund that ?

[iceman]

I guess the relevant question would be - how much of this housing price drop is already priced into OCA and the other retirement villages? Given that some of them dropped already by 30% plus to their recent peak, market might be positively surprised if house prices just drop by e.g. 20% (which would be less than 2/3rd of last years gain).

And lets not forget - we start to open the borders (sort of) for the first time in two years and more than a million Kiwis overseas locked out of NZ might want to come home. Will be interesting to see what this does to our housing market?

Remember - markets are forward looking :t_up:

Ah yes - and just remember how good the analysts have been in the past to predict house prices ... while they predicted 10 out of the last 2 slumps, they often don't even get the direction right (though if they say "up", they are much more likely to be correct, then if they say "down" ;) - I guess that's why analysts like to be optimists :) ;

BP the highlighted part in your post is utter rubbish. Saying all the Kiwis living overseas want to come back home when the borders open. Yes there are about 1 million Kiwis living overseas but NOT many of them will be moving back. Many feel totally disgusted with and disconnected from NZ now and most live a good life where they are. There are many foreign borne people living in NZ that may move back offshore after the last 2 years and so will many young Kiwis. My bet is we will see a significant net outflow of people when the borders properly open.

[BlackPeter]

BP the highlighted part in your post is utter rubbish. Saying all the Kiwis living overseas want to come back home when the borders open. Yes there are about 1 million Kiwis living overseas but NOT many of them will be moving back. Many feel totally disgusted with and disconnected from NZ now and most live a good life where they are. There are many foreign borne people living in NZ that may move back offshore after the last 2 years and so will many young Kiwis. My bet is we will see a significant net outflow of people when the borders properly open.

Your view .... does not mean that a different view must be "utter rubbish". Something in your morning tea which disagreed with you?

I didn't say either that the whole million will come, but I think it is valid assumption that the number coming might be higher than the number going. Take the Kiwis overseas, add all the foreign workers we desperately need (like nurses, doctors, machine operators), add the people who don't want to be close to a war in Europe or in a country which in the blink of an eye can turn again populist and controlled by the alt right (US), or in a country much closer to the impacts of climate change (most tropical regions) - all these people will need a place to live.

I realize that you are frustrated about the current government and the MIQ system (and I share most of these views), but this does not mean that everybody will leave NZ as soon as they can ... there still might be some reasons to stick around as well? Don't forget that it was not just NZ turning more populist, xenophobe and selfish during the Covid times ... we don't have to be anymore as attractive as we used to be, we just need to be more attractive than the other countries.

[Bjauck]

BP the highlighted part in your post is utter rubbish. Saying all the Kiwis living overseas want to come back home when the borders open. Yes there are about 1 million Kiwis living overseas but NOT many of them will be moving back. Many feel totally disgusted with and disconnected from NZ now and most live a good life where they are. There are many foreign borne people living in NZ that may move back offshore after the last 2 years and so will many young Kiwis. My bet is we will see a significant net outflow of people when the borders properly open.Up to about six months ago the Hermit Kingdom and Ardern were put on a pedestal by many (myself too). Then the wheels started getting loose on the Covid Response wagon. I think now when the borders reopen there will be fewer rushing to come back or migrate to NZ.

Most of the returned Kiwis I knew of, have returned overseas*. They were late 20's-30's though. So whereas in previous generations many in that age group would be looking to settle down back in NZ and buy a house, this generation have to a large extent been priced out of that - and now shut out by Labour's ccfa changes.

*The expat Kiwis I know have returned to the the Uk and The USA, which had a difficult time with covid responses. Obviously central and Eastern Europe especially are in uncertain times now and the situation could deteriorate rapidly.

[iceman]

Your view .... does not mean that a different view must be "utter rubbish". Something in your morning tea which disagreed with you?

I didn't say either that the whole million will come, but I think it is valid assumption that the number coming might be higher than the number going. Take the Kiwis overseas, add all the foreign workers we desperately need (like nurses, doctors, machine operators), add the people who don't want to be close to a war in Europe or in a country which in the blink of an eye can turn again populist and controlled by the alt right (US), or in a country much closer to the impacts of climate change (most tropical regions) - all these people will need a place to live.

I realize that you are frustrated about the current government and the MIQ system (and I share most of these views), but this does not mean that everybody will leave NZ as soon as they can ... there still might be some reasons to stick around as well? Don't forget that it was not just NZ turning more populist, xenophobe and selfish during the Covid times ... we don't have to be anymore as attractive as we used to be, we just need to be more attractive than the other countries.

I don't drink tea and it's evening where I am, so no nothing in my morning tea. this is what you said " And lets not forget - we start to open the borders (sort of) for the first time in two years and more than a million Kiwis overseas locked out of NZ might want to come home"

Yes you had the word "might" but it is simply nuts to think every Kiwi overseas "might" want to come "home". I have followed the views of Kiwis overseas a lot in the last couple of years. I am absolutely sure not many of them will return to live and I think more will leave NZ than return. So a net outflow. Your post was about the positive effect a net inflow might have. The opposite could be true if we have a net outflow.

[Beagle]

Case in point. My nephew working in IT just bought a beautiful near new 3 bedroom brick and tile home with a small swimming pool within 15 minutes drive of central Perth for just $375,000 on 2% deposit, (that's not a typo), yes just 2%. The banks have every confidence Perth property is headed north and that 2% deposit is some special scheme.
He earns a lot more over there and they have a good life there with their young family.

If he was here they would be stuck paying enormous rent with very little prospect of escaping the rent trap and have far less disposable income.
There is no chance he will return to N.Z. where he grew up.

[allfromacell]

Case in point. My nephew working in IT just bought a beautiful near new 3 bedroom brick and tile home with a small swimming pool within 15 minutes drive of central Perth for just $375,000 on 2% deposit, (that's not a typo), yes just 2%. The banks have every confidence Perth property is headed north and that 2% deposit is some special scheme.
He earns a lot more over there and they have a good life there with their young family.

If he was here they would be stuck paying enormous rent with very little prospect of escaping the rent trap and have far less disposable income.
There is no chance he will return to N.Z. where he grew up.

I'm in a similar position and will be heading to Sydney for a 40% salary bump. A lot of young Kiwis will be doing the same thing, the opportunity cost of not leaving is becoming too large.

One things for sure is I will be taking my OCA shares with me, fortunately their business model is focused on elderly and we have plenty of them, hopefully we can import the labour needed.

[Cyclical]

...hopefully we can import the labour needed.
The unfortunate reality is that's gonna be the key to this sector's future success. Perhaps coupled with a lot more automation/robots. With the elderly becoming a much larger percentage of our population going forward, we're either going to have to become a whole lot more efficient, or import the labour...others can argue about positive/negative migration flows post border opening, but I think the key tangible thing is making it easier to bolster our care focused foreign labour capacity. Those that wanna go and work in AU can probably do so (I know some that departed recently), without sitting around waiting for our borders to open.

[winner69]

Stockland in Aussie sold their retirement living portfolio to our friends EQT

EQT paid slightly less than book value

Maybe some PE outfit looking at Oceania …..get a bargain even if they offered $1.25 to put us out of our misery

[Cyclical]

Stockland in Aussie sold their retirement living portfolio to our friends EQT

EQT paid slightly less than book value

Maybe some PE outfit looking at Oceania …..get a bargain even if they offered $1.25 to put us out of our misery

There would have to be some synergies, right? Not a bad time for bargain hunting, something those EQT chaps seem to be pretty apt at...

I wonder how Metlifecare has progressed since the acquisition?

[RTM]

Stockland in Aussie sold their retirement living portfolio to our friends EQT

EQT paid slightly less than book value

Maybe some PE outfit looking at Oceania …..get a bargain even if they offered $1.25 to put us out of our misery

You really don't think we'll see $1.30 again...do you Winner ?

[winner69]

You really don't think we'll see $1.30 again...do you Winner ?

Think that was said about $1.60 as well

Jeez $1.60 not long ago ……that’s quite a fall eh

[Zaphod]

Up to about six months ago the Hermit Kingdom and Ardern were put on a pedestal by many (myself too). Then the wheels started getting loose on the Covid Response wagon. I think now when the borders reopen there will be fewer rushing to come back or migrate to NZ.

Most of the returned Kiwis I knew of, have returned overseas*. They were late 20's-30's though. So whereas in previous generations many in that age group would be looking to settle down back in NZ and buy a house, this generation have to a large extent been priced out of that - and now shut out by Labour's ccfa changes.

*The expat Kiwis I know have returned to the the Uk and The USA, which had a difficult time with covid responses. Obviously central and Eastern Europe especially are in uncertain times now and the situation could deteriorate rapidly.

We now have a number of qualified staff leaving our firm for foreign shores like the US and UK, despite the difficult (as you put it) covid response of those countries. Career opportunities for highly qualified individuals are extremely limited in New Zealand, and the reward in foreign markets is much higher. One staff member is set to double their salary in the US, which also provides a much lower cost of living, and provides far more networking opportunities to advance their career or build a business. One of my own colleagues works for a major US-based tech firm, earning US$280k +bonus (over US$100K last time) +perks. We can't compete, especially now.

Will these individuals return to NZ to retire and buy into retirement village units? Based on what I see with my colleagues, the answer is no. They have families in these countries, have developed support networks, and enjoy the greater travel and general leisure opportunities available. Some will be in the position that they could pay for the services provided by retirement villages but have them delivered in their own home. So the market for these villages are likely to be for those that have remained here, or perhaps close by (e.g. Australia).

[Cyclical]

You really don't think we'll see $1.30 again...do you Winner ?


Think that was said about $1.60 as well

Jeez $1.60 not long ago ……that’s quite a fall eh

It's crazy to think this one is back to the kind of price it was for the vast majority of 2019...how can that be right?

Actually Ryman fairs even worse...you'd need to go back to 2017 to see the current prices (March 2020 excepted of course).

[Baa_Baa]

It's crazy to think this one is back to the kind of price it was for the vast majority of 2019...how can that be right?

No secret this has been very volatile since covid arrived in 2020 and became a good trading stock for those who know how to play that game. For the genuine long holds, the SP really doesn't matter too much except for those times when you can buy more of a share of all future earnings at discounted prices. I bet there's a few people who are still laughing their heads off after they scored a truckload following the 2020 Covid low. It's just a matter of perspective.

[FatTed]

We now have a number of qualified staff leaving our firm for foreign shores like the US and UK, despite the difficult (as you put it) covid response of those countries. Career opportunities for highly qualified individuals are extremely limited in New Zealand, and the reward in foreign markets is much higher. One staff member is set to double their salary in the US, which also provides a much lower cost of living, and provides far more networking opportunities to advance their career or build a business. One of my own colleagues works for a major US-based tech firm, earning US$280k +bonus (over US$100K last time) +perks. We can't compete, especially now.

Will these individuals return to NZ to retire and buy into retirement village units? Based on what I see with my colleagues, the answer is no. They have families in these countries, have developed support networks, and enjoy the greater travel and general leisure opportunities available. Some will be in the position that they could pay for the services provided by retirement villages but have them delivered in their own home. So the market for these villages are likely to be for those that have remained here, or perhaps close by (e.g. Australia).

I think you may find when people get to retirement age in the US and no longer have worked based health insurance they will not be able to afford to stay. They will elect to move to a country where the health care is "free". such as the UK or NZ

[Panda-NZ-]

I think you may find when people get to retirement age in the US and no longer have worked based health insurance they will not be able to afford to stay. They will elect to move to a country where the health care is "free". such as the UK or NZ

Yes that's a good point.

It will be a problem for returning SCV kiwis in particular.
Free nz super which they don't qualify for in Australia.

[Beagle]

Yeah I backed the truck up at close to the lows in early 2020 and have subsequently normalised my holding to free ride it but laughing my head off at the moment ?...definitely not !!!
Does anyone's head in seeing $1.50 go down to the point where the last two digits are round the other way...must admit when I saw $1.05 this morning I felt like this stock should come with a health warning...something like this seems appropriate

"HEALTH AND SAFETY WARNING - Be Warned, holding this stock is liable to make you feel like beating your head against a brick wall"

Takeover at fair value NAV of $1.42...just show me where to sign because I think management have no idea on how to deliver quality care services in a cost efficient manner. As Winner said, please put us out of our misery.

I suppose I could have another go at backing the truck up if it gets back to the IPO price but that would also involve needing to fits pads to the walls of my kennel lol

[Zaphod]

I think you may find when people get to retirement age in the US and no longer have worked based health insurance they will not be able to afford to stay. They will elect to move to a country where the health care is "free". such as the UK or NZ

Medicare provides a basic level of hospital care for 65+ year olds. We're also talking specifically about highly paid individuals, but your point is a valid one. It really depends upon what work is being undertaken in the US, and whether they seek citizenship. Most of my colleagues who moved there have done so.

[Cyclical]

Takeover at fair value NAV of $1.42...just show me where to sign because I think management have no idea on how to deliver quality care services in a cost efficient manner. As Winner said, please put us out of our misery.

I suppose I could have another go at backing the truck up if it gets back to the IPO price but that would also involve needing to fits pads to the walls of my kennel lol

Agreed on the takeover thinking, and I think the possibility can't be discounted, although the OIO may not like the idea of that being EQT with MET already on their books.

Personally I don't think we'll see much downside from here, maybe it would get down to ~90c if covid sweeping through some of the villages looked ugly in the press, otherwise I think we're already in over correction territory. Happy to be proven wrong though and given a chance to back up another (small) truck.

[ralph]

I disagree Ted ,its not all free dental , non acc covered etc, and the waiting list for us poor folks are horrendous .
I have a different perspectives friends /kiwis waiting for years for knee and hip ops ,others getting it done private the next day or going abroad for cheaper ops .'
Have done the same myself ,certainly not a health system for any one with money to come back for .

[Perky]

Talking of EQT and takeovers…I see they spent $1B buying Stocklands retirement assets in Australia. At least someone still likes the sector.

[ralph]

Talking of EQT and takeovers…I see they spent $1B buying Stocklands retirement assets in Australia. At least someone still likes the sector.
Pretty sure if they where interested they would be waiting like anyone else till covid really starts to ravage this sector and the nz housing bubble bursts .

[Greekwatchdog]

Pretty sure if they where interested they would be waiting like anyone else till covid really starts to ravage this sector and the nz housing bubble bursts .

Really? Housing won't crash. Govt can ill afford to let that happen 19 months before election. What they want xxx people evicted out of there house as the equity is negative? As for Covid, this thing is going everywhere, however the elderly will be safer in these villages with strict protocols and health people available. They will get better service in there than we do outside.

[Cyclical]

Pretty sure if they where interested they would be waiting like anyone else till covid really starts to ravage this sector and the nz housing bubble bursts .

Yeah, nah, I'd suggest in this instance the stock market has been pretty forward looking and most of the discount has already been baked in (~30% down from recent high). Maybe there's another ~10% to go from here, who knows. Suspect we may be sitting around these ~1 buck levels for an extended period though, until there's a bit less uncertainty floating about, unless there is takeover talk that is...

[Bjauck]

I disagree Ted ,its not all free dental , non acc covered etc, and the waiting list for us poor folks are horrendous .
I have a different perspectives friends /kiwis waiting for years for knee and hip ops ,others getting it done private the next day or going abroad for cheaper ops .'
Have done the same myself ,certainly not a health system for any one with money to come back for .
Yes the acc/medical dichotomy results in vastly different outcomes. In addition when dental, hearing and eyesight are to a large extent not covered, NZ health is only partly socialised. However perhaps this would not be an issue for the wealthier returning ex-pats with a medical insurance history?

[ralph]

Yes but wealthy expats returning to the NZ for retirement are like rocking horse poo Bjauck ,unlike uninsured ex pats coming in from Aus going in to state housing .

[ralph]

Yeah, nah, I'd suggest in this instance the stock market has been pretty forward looking and most of the discount has already been baked in (~30% down from recent high). Maybe there's another ~10% to go from here, who knows. Suspect we may be sitting around these ~1 buck levels for an extended period though, until there's a bit less uncertainty floating about, unless there is takeover talk that is...
Maybe only another 10 % but certainly in uncharted territories' ,

[Baa_Baa]

Yeah, nah, I'd suggest in this instance the stock market has been pretty forward looking and most of the discount has already been baked in (~30% down from recent high). Maybe there's another ~10% to go from here, who knows. Suspect we may be sitting around these ~1 buck levels for an extended period though, until there's a bit less uncertainty floating about, unless there is takeover talk that is...

The whole sector has been nailed, it's not just OCA.

A few percent more or less nailed than another player is really not relevant. The question is that, peoples capital is being smashed while they hold this sector, so why would they do that?

Maybe they don't care about their short term market capital on some companies, maybe buy some more and look forward to decades of regular returns?

When the SP is low convert to DRP, but when it is high go for the cash.

Long term is a mindset.

[Beagle]

EQT are vultures as demonstrated when they took over MET at just 85% of NTA and used the fear of the unknown with Covid to their advantage. I also had very serious reservations about the so called independent valuation that was undertaken for MET and a number of other matters I posted about at the time.
EQT wouldn't be interested in paying a fair value for developments in progress of any other aspect of fair net asset value (NAV) of $1.42.
They'd want to only pay 85% of NTA ($1.27) = $1.08. To heck with that, if I want to give them away I can sell them on market for that.

Acknowledge that you are right Baa Baa that all stocks in the sector have had a good haircut but I think the most frustrating thing with this one is its now well and truly underneath fair NAV whereas all the others are still trading at a premium to NTA, in fact quite a significant premium in the case of SUM and RYM. You have to ask yourself why and of course the answer is what I've been dogmatically barking about for ages because it's such a big issue so unless they can fix that problem then quite frankly I think the shares probably deserve to trade at a discount to NTA. I have very little confidence left they can ever control wages costs in line with care fees earned hence I'd welcome a takeover at fair NAV of $1.42 with open arms.

[mike2020]

You would regret that Beagle. It has previously been through similar cycles and will be a bone worth digging up again in the future. I'd hate to see it head off market.

[winner69]

One thing going for OCA is that it could be seen by some as a bargain at $1.05 - you get heaps more shares for a $1,000 than you would with say SUM

Anything to create a bit of buying interest helps;)

[pierre]

Nice result from SUM other RV operator today. with a nice bounce in the SP.

At this stage it looks like nobody is convinced that OCA might be able to report anything nearly as positive in a few months time. :(

[Brain]

Nice result from SUM other RV operator today. with a nice bounce in the SP.

At this stage it looks like nobody is convinced that OCA might be able to report anything nearly as positive in a few months time. :(

consistent doom and gloom on this thread

[mike2020]

Nothing wrong with that when your planning on filling your boots at 85 cents right?

[bottomfeeder]

Nothing wrong with that when your planning on filling your boots at 85 cents right?

How does the song go, "that'll be the day"

[Playa]

consistent doom and gloom on this thread
OCA Any is too many

[Greekwatchdog]

OCA Any is too many

Say that in 18 months when things kick in. Only a short term trader thinks like that.

[BlackPeter]

OCA Any is too many

It depends, but clearly for investors following the well known "buy high, sell low"- strategy ;); Some people just don't like specials ...

For anybody else - accumulation (within a sensible diversification strategy) might well be in order.

[Poolboy]

This is what we have been dreading...

[Cyclical]

This is what we have been dreading...

Have I missed something?

[Baa_Baa]

Have I missed something?

. Covid phase three (everyone fend for yourselves)
. Russia war on Ukraine begins
. Property market peaked and falling

Have I missed something?

Market will have a hissy fit.

[Cyclical]

. Covid phase three (everyone fend for yourselves)
. Russia war on Ukraine begins
. Property market peaked and falling

Have I missed something?

Market will have a hissy fit.

Haha, sure, got that, but was that all new news at 2pm this arvo?

[cyclist]

Haha, sure, got that, but was that all new news at 2pm this arvo?

I imagine Poolboy might clarify, but I suspect it was in reference to the case numbers. An anxiety generating increase if you happen to be wired that way.

[Cyclical]

I imagine Poolboy might clarify, but I suspect it was in reference to the case numbers. An anxiety generating increase if you happen to be wired that way.

Ahh, I see, you're probably right. Pfft.

[dobby41]

This is what we have been dreading...

What have we been dreading?

[Poolboy]

What have we been dreading?

Case numbers mainly. We have spent the last two years hoping it wouldn't happen - and betting against it. And it has happened. Plus Adern holidaying around safe zones instead of facing the angry crowds in Parliament, plus war in Europe, It's pretty bad.

[Curly]

Case numbers now irrelevant. Case numbers were expected to increase with the omicron cold. What is relevant are the hospitalisations and deaths. Both the latter two are down. Bill Gates has said “sadly”????? Omicron has given greater immunity to covid than the jab.
Have 94% of us been coned ? Apparently there are up to eight boosters lined up for us to booster pharma profits.

[Bjauck]

Case numbers mainly. We have spent the last two years hoping it wouldn't happen - and betting against it. And it has happened. Plus Adern holidaying around safe zones instead of facing the angry crowds in Parliament, plus war in Europe, It's pretty bad.
It sounds like a perfect storm.

Who in their right mind would want to associate with trespassers who have been defacing war memorials, blocking streets, harassing pupils and flinging human excrement at police?

[Snoopy]

Case numbers now irrelevant. Case numbers were expected to increase with the omicron cold.


Just because Covid-19 has upper respiratory tract symptoms, that doesn't mean you can call it a cold. What you understand as a cold doesn't directly send active virus to your brain and other vital organs, outside of the lungs



What is relevant are the hospitalisations and deaths. Both the latter two are down.


Hospitalisations are at record highs. Deaths take on average a couple of weeks to feed through the hospital system, so we will see.



Bill Gates has said “sadly”????? Omicron has given greater immunity to covid than the jab.
Have 94% of us been coned ?


'Coned'? Is that like being given a dunces hat to wear? I guess you are speaking for yourself?

I happened to see that interview with Bill Gates. To put it in context, he was referring to the fact that 'big Pharma' had not exactly been equitable with its vaccine distribution globally. So the disease was left to generate its own immunity, as everyone caught it, without the option of getting vacced.



Apparently there are up to eight boosters lined up for us to booster pharma profits.


Not a lie because 'up to eight boosters' includes the subset of 'one booster'.

SNOOPY

[Bill Smith]

It sounds like a perfect storm.

Who in their right mind would want to associate with trespassers who have been defacing war memorials, blocking streets, harassing pupils and flinging human excrement at police?

Don't forget the acid attacks. Ooops, that was police spraying their mates with pepper spray.

[RTM]

Case numbers now irrelevant. Case numbers were expected to increase with the omicron cold. What is relevant are the hospitalisations and deaths. Both the latter two are down. Bill Gates has said “sadly”????? Omicron has given greater immunity to covid than the jab.
Have 94% of us been coned ? Apparently there are up to eight boosters lined up for us to booster pharma profits.

If you think the profits are substantial, you can of course buy shares in the vaccine companies.
Hold some Pfitzer.

[dobby41]

This seems to be moving away from OCA and into a general thread?

[Curly]

This seems to be moving away from OCA and into a general thread?I agree.
Snoops
Talking to hospital people, they tell me they are being inundated with people having adverse affects from jab. In my work place 4 out of 21 have permanent life time adverse affects.
In my immediate family we have 3 with adverse affects, and yes they feel coned and none at work or home are dunces but are being fobbed off by the health system. All are refusing boosters.

[winner69]

I agree.
Snoops
Talking to hospital people, they tell me they are being inundated with people having adverse affects from jab. In my work place 4 out of 21 have permanent life time adverse affects.
In my immediate family we have 3 with adverse affects, and yes they feel coned and none at work or home are dunces but are being fobbed off by the health system. All are refusing boosters.

So likely Oceania could have quite a few staff affected by this

[bottomfeeder]

I agree.
Snoops
Talking to hospital people, they tell me they are being inundated with people having adverse affects from jab. In my work place 4 out of 21 have permanent life time adverse affects.
In my immediate family we have 3 with adverse affects, and yes they feel coned and none at work or home are dunces but are being fobbed off by the health system. All are refusing boosters.

Where are you posting from - parliament grounds. Take your rhetoric somewhere else.

[Ggcc]

On another note from someone on the inside. Potentially 5-10 Oceania sites have reports of Covid. No fatalities yet.

[bottomfeeder]

On another note from someone on the inside. Potentially 5-10 Oceania sites have reports of Covid. No fatalities yet.

Add this to the other providers, and we have got to an unavoidable situation, that affects all retirement villages. Not that the protestors in Wellington care, as long as they feel they are OK. Ahh ignorant bliss.

[850man]

On another note from someone on the inside. Potentially 5-10 Oceania sites have reports of Covid. No fatalities yet.

All providers are equally at risk of covid. The risk is not much different to living elsewhere, it's all down to how people choose to interact with each other

[Beau]

All providers are equally at risk of covid. The risk is not much different to living elsewhere, it's all down to how people choose to interact with each other

Majority of retirement villages if not all villages visitors to resthome care / special care / apartments have to have rat test at village which takes about 15 minutes prior to going in. That should make a difference, my sister works at a resthome and is tested every morning prior to work.

[Ggcc]

Majority of retirement villages if not all villages visitors to resthome care / special care / apartments have to have rat test at village which takes about 15 minutes prior to going in. That should make a difference, my sister works at a resthome and is tested every morning prior to work.
OCA It was mentioned as of today OCA have started to rat test my contractor mate. A bit behind the eight ball.

I must admit OMICRON looks far less of a concern than DELTA or ALPHA

[ralph]

Where are you posting from - parliament grounds. Take your rhetoric somewhere else.
I think & know that the side effects issue is absolutely correct that is from my own interactions with the booster not affiliated to the antis & supportive of anti vaccines persons .ps I also work in hospitals deal with doctors whom are getting sacked in the south Island Dunedin & Oamaru for not having ? the jab being anti vaxers etc

[Joshuatree]

Please take your opinion to the Coronavirus thread,thankyou.

[Maverick]

Bit of good news coming for the sector for the first time in years. There's a tremendous article article in the NZ Herald today with this....

"Health Minister Andrew Little told the Weekend Herald he had instructed officials to work on a massive pay deal for aged care and other nurses that would, with other changes, ease staffing shortages."

Oca does still make a slither of a profit of about 2% on pure care without the PAC or DMF fees added. So this promised "extra " will go straight to the bottom line....this news is significant (and must happen ). DHB fees get reset mid year.

For the first time in ages we are past the relentless set backs and now there is strong evidence the light is coming;
-covid units being dismantled in Aussy now- they pave our way,
-tons of stored $ embedded value ready to wash through- HPI gains about to happen as per SUMS profit this week.
-construction rates ramping up,- leads to high growth 1.5 years later.
-the derisking of care suit model,- plenty of history to prove the entire model if one looks deep into the numbers.
-the beginning of the high growth of OCA appropriate ageing population starts about now
......and now a "massive pay deal coming"

If an OCA investor has had the fortitude to hang in this far , well done - it has been a most difficult journey. I'm saying the hard yards are now behind.

[Waltzing]

"hard yards are now behind you."


or some investors may have already banked the profits!

Special report: Rest homes 'on verge of collapse' as Omicron threatens - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/special-report-rest-homes-on-verge-of-collapse-as-omicron-threatens/QGX7OOZ6BZG5CPXREB2GVNDAQQ/)

May be investable again down the track.

[dubya]

Here's the whole article.
Little's comments are interesting.

It took only a few nursing vacancies to close Wharekaka rest home and upend the lives of its elderly residents.
Aged care homes across the country are grappling with a severe nursing shortage that in recent months has forced 20 facilities like Wharekaka in South Wairarapa to close all or some of their hospital-level beds.
The sector is short 1000 registered nurses out of a workforce that should number about 5000.
Covid-19 shut borders and created fierce competition for nurses, who can earn much more in public hospitals or working in other DHB roles, including as vaccinators.
The trust that runs Wharekaka, a 20-bed care home in Martinborough, can’t replace three nurses, including two who left after refusing to get vaccinated against Covid-19.
As a result, it couldn’t accept residents needing hospital-level care, and the associated loss of funding was a tipping point.
Elizabeth Kershaw, 91, was days away from moving in when news came of the closure.
Her son, Richard, scrambled to get her on the wait list for a home in Greytown, but without other options in the area she will, in the meantime, keep living in a granny flat on his farm.
That’s despite her needing someone close by around the clock, because of ill health that puts her at risk of falls.
“She needs to be there, and she wants to be there,” says Richard of Wharekaka, a community mainstay where Elizabeth’s own mother lived.
“We were taking her in twice a week for day visits. Singers come in to perform, they have exercise groups, that sort of thing. She loved that, she loved going in there and meeting up with people. They love that contact when they get a bit older.
“That’s what a community is all about — babies, kindergarten, all the way through — you make sure that you provide. But unfortunately, we’re not now. It’s sad the way society has gone.”
The Weekend Herald has obtained government documents and emails about the unfolding crisis, reviewed hundreds of rest home audits and reports, and spoken to frontline workers, unions and facility owners
Even aged care homes that manage to stay open can do so with unsafe staffing levels.
Authorities were notified of 851 incidents last year when a facility didn’t have enough nurses to ensure the safety of residents — a 227 per cent increase from 2020.
Nurses have worked triple shifts — 24 hours straight — because there’s nobody to relieve them and they won’t leave residents without cover.
Simon Wallace, the chief executive of the Aged Care Association, which represents most companies and owners, says staffing shortages are worsening by the day.
“I don’t use the language that I am about to use very lightly at all. Quite frankly, we are on a precipice in aged care right now. We are on the verge of collapse.”
A lack of nurses has caused more than 400 hospital-level beds to close in the past six months, he says.
“In Whanganui, an older person cannot get into an aged residential care facility, because there are no beds. In Taranaki, there are now only three rest homes that can take admissions. This is being repeated all over the country,” Wallace says.
“We are going to close more beds and these people will start clogging up the public hospitals because there won’t be anywhere else for them to go. The Government does not want to have that on their hands with Omicron.”

Health Minister Andrew Little told the Weekend Herald he had instructed officials to work on a massive pay deal for aged care and other nurses that would, with other changes, ease staffing shortages.
“I accept there is a degree of urgency to it. And that is why I have been pressing officials to get on with it.
“All parts of the health sector are suffering a shortage of nurses. It has been a long-building problem but I am satisfied at the measures we are taking to address it.”
AGED CARE facilities provide different types of care, including more intensive hospital-level beds, for people who mostly need help to move and do daily tasks.
Funding contracts with DHBs stipulate that a registered nurse must work in hospital-level areas at all times.
However, documents obtained under the Official Information Act reveal multiple facilities recently breached that obligation. That occurred with the knowledge of DHBs, who accepted vacancies simply couldn’t be filled.
The Government last September developed a “registered nurse risk assessment tool”, to judge the risk of ongoing nurse shortages at an aged care facility, and agree on mitigations like nurses sleeping onsite to be roused if needed, and moving residents out.

Managers at greater Wellington DHBs worried “this situation of uncovered shifts is no longer rare but an ongoing sustained situation”, emails show, and that not having a nurse working “may result in delayed access to required level of assessment and care” if a patient fell ill: “If an ambulance is called they would need a registered nurse to do assessments for them to help with triage ... how will they manage controlled drugs/dangerous drugs?”

The law requires aged care homes to notify the director-general of health if a lack of registered nurses puts, or could put, residents at risk.

Last year those “Section 31” notifications more than tripled to 851.

The Ministry of Health called a crisis meeting with DHBs, who warned there was no easy solution because public hospitals were also short of nurses.

“DHB hospitals can’t staff as well, so it is not possible to staff [aged residential care],” reported Auckland DHB, a position supported by Canterbury DHB’s representative, who argued it was now time for “a strategy on what we stop doing and what we prioritise”.

A survey of homes in Southern DHB found more than half didn’t have enough nurses for safe staffing. “We’re in strife down here,” the DHB told the meeting, giving the example of a facility that wouldn’t have an overnight nurse for the next three months.

Recent feedback from facilities gathered by the Aged Care Association and released under the OIA reveals despair and frustration.

It could take longer than half a year to fill vacancies, many said, and when overseas nurses finally got through the border, DHBs poached them by exploiting a difference in government funding that means aged care nurses are generally paid less.

One home said its staff worked even when unwell because “they have a duty of care knowing there is no other person to do their work”.

“We are down two nurses and I have had multiple advertisements running for a month now with zero applicants,” another facility reported. “We are just running out of options. It has been like this since Covid.”

The Government “neglected us at the start of the pandemic and that cost lives”, warned a manager who had nurses leave to become vaccinators. “What could happen if we have fewer staff working longer hours while tired and stressed?”

THOSE HOURS can be extreme: both the Nurses Organisation and Aged Care Association told the Weekend Herald that nurses are working double and even triple shifts — 24 hours — to plug gaps.

Lynda Boyd, an organiser for the Nurses Organisation (NZNO), which represents both aged care nurses and caregivers, says triple shifts are rare, but had been reported by workers at a South Island facility.

“They are not sleeping on shift. They are expected to be awake and working for 24 hours. These shifts are not rostered or pre-planned and occur as a result of there not being enough staff coming on to shift to cover those who are leaving. Our members don’t want residents to suffer so they stay on.

“It’s horrifying. Employers are not meeting their health and safety responsibilities and they are breaking good practice guidelines. And, I would argue, common sense.”

Aged care is heavily reliant on migrant workers, and Boyd says they are less likely to refuse unreasonable shifts because their residency can rely on their job.

Pay parity with DHB nurses is urgently needed, she says, as well as mandatory staff-to-resident ratios (presently there are only guidelines).

“Pre-pandemic there was a staffing crisis in aged care. Now we are in a pandemic — and we are about to see the worst of it in New Zealand — and there is a serious, serious problem.”
Aged care workers and managers are finalising “life-preserving” plans, to be activated during a serious Omicron outbreak.
Christchurch nurse Natalie Seymour, who has worked in aged care for 26 years and chairs NZNO’s College of Gerontology Nursing, says that includes calling on family members of residents to help with tasks like feeding and cleaning, so staff are free to deliver healthcare.
The workforce is already nearing “total burnout”, she says.

“It is becoming pretty dire. Everybody is just trying to pull together ... a lot of staff feel they are failing their residents at the moment because they are not providing the care that they feel the residents deserve.

“The resources are not available. We are having to split ourselves into three people to achieve daily routines.”

STAFFING PRESSURE has been linked to substandard care in complaint decisions released by the Health and Disability Commissioner, the Government’s health watchdog.

The Weekend Herald has read reports released since 2018 and found staffing and training problems identified in 27 cases when a resident died after substandard care. Investigators generally couldn’t say whether or how that contributed to the deaths, given residents were often unwell with a range of health conditions and near the end of life.

In one example, proper checks weren’t made on a dementia patient who fell repeatedly, and died soon afterwards. A nurse told investigators staffing levels meant “it was very difficult for the registered nurses to be as vigilant in attending to the needs of all 50 plus residents as they ought to have been”.

Fourteen residents died with infected bedsores and wounds that weren’t treated or monitored properly, with investigators finding staffing issues including high turnover, heavy workloads for nurses and lack of training. In one case, nurses claimed they were ordered to complete care plans and other assessments in their own time if necessary.

A man had maggots hatch in his wounds after dressings were changed infrequently, and a nurse told investigators her workload was “impossible”.

A woman died after her 6cm deep ulcer wasn’t treated properly, and a nurse working as the clinical manager revealed she was on call 24 hours, seven days a week and the “fulcrum point of the natural tension between the owners’ interests and their financial constraints, and maintaining nursing standards”.
Another home was ordered to review nursing levels after no action was taken when a man complained of stomach pain. He died the next day from a perforated intestine.
The HDC investigates only a fraction of complaints, and can take more than a year to do so, meaning there is a significant lag-time before events turn up in reports.
Aged care homes are also regularly audited by companies contracted by the Government. Most are found to be in good shape, but staffing issues are being noticed, including at an Auckland rest home that had 15 occasions over a single month when a nursing shift was instead worked
by a healthcare assistant, which resulted in call bells not being answered quickly enough.
A high rate of falls among residents was linked to short staffing at a Taranaki home. Staff at another facility were increasingly working double shifts and extra days, and they and families were concerned about workload.
Wallace, of the Aged Care Association, told the Weekend Herald the vast majority of the 37,000 people in aged care were well looked after.
“[But] going forward, I think it is inevitable that we will have more cases of substandard care. And that is regrettable. It is not through any lack of effort to try to get help on this stuff. It does come down to the nursing workforce.”
Aged care nurses are generally paid about $10-15,000 less than a hospital nurse, Wallace says. That will widen to as much as $20,000 when a DHB nursing pay equity deal rolls out in July, at which point, “none of our nurses will want to stay ... rest homes will just close”.
Some larger companies can pay their nurses more using income from retirement villages often located on the same site, he says, but most in the sector cannot.
LITTLE RECENTLY met with Wallace and other aged care representatives, and told the Weekend Herald he’s made it clear “the pathway to [pay] parity” for all nurses “is now being intensively worked on”.
Wallace is “utterly wrong” to say the Government isn’t responding, says Little.
He also took issue with the statement that aged care is on the verge of collapse.
“I think when Simon says those sorts of things he is catastrophising, and he puts his own credibility at risk. I met with him as recently as a few weeks ago [and] he didn’t catastrophise in the way he seems to be to you.”
(Wallace says Little told an aged care conference in 2020 that pay parity was a top priority, but nurses needed certainty. “The minister may say I’m catastrophising the situation but if the sector is not able to provide aged care services for our most vulnerable, I have no hesitation in saying so.”)
Little couldn’t give a timeframe for when pay parity would happen, or what it might cost (the Aged Care Association says previous government modelling indicated about $113 million a year).
One complication, Little says, is that aged care is made up of large companies as well as “charitable and small family-owned facilities who are in genuine need of additional support”.

Extra funding shouldn’t “line the pockets of the large corporates who just use it to pay an extra dividend to their shareholders”.
“There’s a difference between the big corporate players and the rest, and we have to have a policy that distinguishes between them.”
The nursing workforce grew in the past three years. The ministry says measures to boost numbers include a voluntary bonding scheme, funding for study, a one-off residency pathway, and major recruitment campaigns.
DHBs have also been told to stop hiring nurses allowed into NZ to specifically work in aged care, by supporting the alteration of visa conditions.
That message was delivered late last year by Southern DHB chief executive Chris Fleming, who leads aged care work for the country’s 20 health boards.
However, poaching continued.
“I’ve had to remind my [chief executive] colleagues on a number of occasions, because individual events do get flagged with me,” Fleming says.
“DHBs are quite large, complex organisations, so sometimes it takes a period of time for what had been agreed to get all the way through.”
Southern has more than 200 nursing vacancies and, like elsewhere, is trying to clear elective backlogs and cope with rising demand from an ageing population.
That requires hiring more staff, Fleming says, but, “we have made a call we are not going to do that at the expense of seeing an aged residential care facility fall over, or face even more significant risk issues”.
About 60 aged care beds have already closed in his region alone. That has caused “bed block”, when an older person who needed ongoing and professional care stayed in hospital with nowhere to go.

REST HOMES accounted for most Covid-19 deaths during earlier outbreaks, and staffing became a major problem at some facilities.
At Rosewood rest home in Christchurch, which had 12 deaths, staff went into isolation and for three days there weren’t enough DHB volunteers to replace them, meaning residents received only basic care. “Skin integrity issues developing,” stated one DHB document summarising problems. “Medication adherence issues.”

Many of the patients were bed-bound, incontinent and couldn’t talk. If a person needed changing, three workers donned new PPE and then, together, hoisted the patient into bed and cleaned them carefully — to manage the infection risk, and to not cause distress by appearing rushed.
A nurse later said there were days when half a dozen patients needed changing, hourly — she could change PPE 50 times on those shifts.
“Patients’ symptoms would spring up left, right and centre like holes in a dam ... diarrhoea, back pain, dry cough, delirium, the occasional high temperatures, lungs filling up fast with thick mucus, and plummeting oxygen saturations ... for some, positioning became a matter of life and death.”
During an outbreak at an Auckland rest home some of the DHB nurses who replaced stood-down facility staff reported being brought to tears by floors dirtied with “stinking” urine and faeces and overflowing bins. Residents suffered falls and waited too long for feeding and toileting.
The Aged Care Association in April 2020 called for the Government to develop a surge workforce plan to be used in case of future outbreaks.
That doesn’t appear to have happened, Wallace says. Up till now that hasn’t mattered, including because aged care staff and residents are triple vaccinated (the association lobbied for a vaccine mandate, with which 98 per cent of workers complied).
However, Wallace has watched as Omicron outbreaks in Australia have claimed hundreds of lives in aged care. The army has been sent into some rest homes to help with workload.
“I’m worried about what’s going to happen,” Wallace says of the situation here. “We were told at a recent meeting of ministry and DHB officials that, ‘we will literally just have to manage ourselves’.”
That’s strongly rejected by Little — “DHBs have been planning for months” — and by Fleming, who says his and other DHBs are working with aged care homes on contingency planning.
“Is it enough? I think it would be fair to say, no. It is never going to be enough, because nobody knows exactly where the peak of Omicron will occur,” Fleming told the Weekend Herald of Southern’s contingency planning.

“[But] if DHBs don’t respond and a care facility does fall over, the end result will be that the residents will turn up at the hospital anyway.”
Feedback from people in aged care made clear that staffing was “absolutely” a concern as Omicron threatens, Fleming says.
“The sector is in a much more tenuous position than they were in 2020 with the original lockdowns. They were much better staffed. The staffing shortages were not as acute as they are now.”
THE FIRST resident moved out of Wharekaka on Wednesday and the doors will shut for good by March 31.
“Somebody sent me an angry email saying, ‘Why didn’t you announce the closure six months ago, it would have given the community time to find a solution,’” says Joy Cooper, chairwoman of its governing board. “Well, six months ago we were doing fine. We were fine up until early November, when we suddenly realised we were going to lose nurses.”
Two left over the vaccine mandate and another for more money at another rest home similarly desperate for staff.
Job advertisements had no response. Wairarapa DHB (which has nearly 20 nursing vacancies itself) gave extra money, but the home is losing up to $40,000 a month.
Wharekaka was built as a maternity home and since the 1970s has been used as an aged care facility, run by a community not-for-profit. Villas for independent living will continue and the trust hopes to keep doing meals on wheels
The DHB expects to find aged care beds for the 13 residents remaining. Some will go to Wellington, others to Masterton. “It’s very distressing for the residents. The nearest places are some distance away,” Cooper says.
“The community is very upset, because it serves a need. But we just can’t keep it going. It’s a model that’s not supported in the current system.”

[Poet]

Gotta love this bit

One complication, Little says, is that aged care is made up of large companies as well as “charitable and small family-owned facilities who are in genuine need of additional support”.

Extra funding shouldn’t “line the pockets of the large corporates who just use it to pay an extra dividend to their shareholders”.

Good old-fashioned socialism eh?

[Baa_Baa]

Gotta love this bit

One complication, Little says, is that aged care is made up of large companies as well as “charitable and small family-owned facilities who are in genuine need of additional support”.

Extra funding shouldn’t “line the pockets of the large corporates who just use it to pay an extra dividend to their shareholders”.

Good old-fashioned socialism eh?


That article is a shocking insight into an unfolding humanitarian crisis. Minister Little also said:

“There’s a difference between the big corporate players and the rest, and we have to have a policy that distinguishes between them.”

[Waltzing]

"old-fashioned socialism "

"policy that distinguishes between them"

Capital Gains Taxes and maybe wage subsidies will have specific applications.

This government spends all its time on trying to controlling every aspect of your lives and your money.

Your money is their money.

Its going to be specific to the entity business structure.

A high speed private enterprise society is not on their agenda..

Nothing has been done by this government to expand the listed capital markets in NZ.

[Beagle]

That article is a shocking insight into an unfolding humanitarian crisis. Minister Little also said:

“There’s a difference between the big corporate players and the rest, and we have to have a policy that distinguishes between them.”

That's deeply concerning. Pure socialism right there. I put it to you folks this Govt does not care that core care services for companies like OCA are underfunded and their so called new policy will continue this active approach of discrimination against retirement village companies. OCA are in dispute with the Govt for 4.8% underfunding of basic care services.

With care services cost inflation probably running at well north of normal inflation of ~ 6%, (maybe 8-9% per annum), I think that 4.8% underfunding dispute is more likely to grow even worse this year rather than be resolved in any meaningful way. We are in the eye of the storm with extra Covid costs and MASSIVE challenges with staffing issues. I think this will get MUCH, MUCH worse before its gets better.

For what its worth I visited a friend at an Arvida village yesterday, and she told me they need 5 nurses but they only have 3 and have had no joy in trying to hire the missing two for over a year. How will they possibly cope if they get Covid in the village and one or more nurses has to be stood down ?

[Monarch]

Surely some types of care patient require more nurse/staff time than others. If the government isn't going to play ball, either OCA needs to raise prices or stop offering its services to demanding patients. This problem is never going to go away, purely because every other developed country has the same problem and NZ has some of the lowest wages in the OECD. Management cannot maintain this fixation on care, so long as they do we are all going to pay for it.

[Ggcc]

As a business you cannot be reliant on government handouts or subsidies. Maybe it’s time to pay nurses more in rest homes and charge the customer far more money.

[allfromacell]

As a business you cannot be reliant on government handouts or subsidies. Maybe it’s time to pay nurses more in rest homes and charge the customer far more money.

Which is exactly what OCA has been doing with its transformation to more premium care.

The government has a very short sighted approach, they need these 'corporations' more than they realise, there is a public health crisis on the horizon as this tsunami of elderly will almost all need care over the next decade.

These corporations are actually competent in building hospitals and all the other infrastructure needed in taking care of the elderly, NZ governments on the other hand have a woeful track record of building infrastructure, abandoning this sector is such an obvious mistake.

NZ really is becoming a difficult place to choose to invest in, let alone live and work.

[Louloubell]

Sorry Maverick and others, but I don't think the dark days are behind us.

The increased funding will be totally gobbled up by the new pay rates for nurses.

This will be another legislated Pay Equity deal, similar to those made for support workers in the aged care and mental health sectors.

Pay equity is all about ensuring that female-dominated professions earn the same money as males in comparable jobs of complexity.

Don't shoot the messenger please.

[Ggcc]

Which is exactly what OCA has been doing with its transformation to more premium care.

The government has a very short sighted approach, they need these 'corporations' more than they realise, there is a public health crisis on the horizon as this tsunami of elderly will almost all need care over the next decade.

These corporations are actually competent in building hospitals and all the other infrastructure needed in taking care of the elderly, NZ governments on the other hand have a woeful track record of building infrastructure, abandoning this sector is such an obvious mistake.

NZ really is becoming a difficult place to choose to invest in, let alone live and work.
Pay nurses more than they get in the public sector (~$30,000 more) and charge the customer the difference split between residents

[Beagle]

Pay nurses more than they get in the public sector (~$30,000 more) and charge the customer the difference split between residents
That would be wonderful if it could happen.

I respect my friend Maverick when he says that basic care is still marginally profitable but all my instincts as a bean counter tell me it all depends upon the cost base you use. If you amortize a fair proportion of managements time and head office overhead and costs to the basic underfunded care side of their business, (which is still a big component of their existing business model), I would respectfully suggest they make a significant loss on the provision of those services. What is completely without debate is that it does not give a satisfactory return on capital employed.

Even after the complete scheduled transformation of their business model which is still about 5 years away basic care that is woefully underfunded by Govt makes up about 30% of their business model, (from memory), and its clear in this very socialist political environment Oceania will never get an acceptable return and is statute barred from charging those customers more as I understand it.

Therefore OCA's business model for the foreseeable future is analogous to driving a pretty good car with the handbrake partially on. I say a pretty good car because I believe most people really want a full feature retirement village with all the bells and whistles not a boutique one like OCA generally provide. The evidence with SUM backs this up with many units presold long before delivery and long wait lists at many of their established villages. SUM is in effect, the Mercedes-Benz of this sector. With OCA you can't take that pretty good car down to the mechanic and get the handbrake to release properly straight away and that's why this car is cheap and will probably stay cheap for the foreseeable future.

Over time my hope is that they will continue their business model transformation such that they move further and further away and eventually completely eliminate the provision of basic care services. The handbrake will be fixed then but that's maybe 10 years away and only if management continue to transform their business model.

Sadly, the time is coming in N.Z. when if all you can afford is affordable Govt funded basic level late stage care, its probably going to be a case of good luck finding a decent operator to provide it. That is the future this socialist Govt is setting old folks up for...hurting the very people they are supposed to represent...oh the irony !

I will try and remain a shareholder for a few more years and see if they can make any meaningful progress but my patience to see acceptable returns to shareholders on their risk capital employed is not infinite. One supposes that with the massive explosion in Covid cases in N.Z. (over 13,000 today) its inevitable we will see some deaths in care facilities for the various listed operators soon and that's not going to help market sentiment !

[Panda-NZ-]

Muldoon and his lot called enforced private savings plans a socialist conspiracy.

So today most elderly rely heavily on the govt for nearly all aspects of life.

[Baa_Baa]

Just probing a bit, are you suggesting that OCA abandon the continuum of care part of the business model because the late care part of that strategy is marginal profit or in your analysis a loss leader?

I can't see that happening TBH, the whole thing is underpinned by a 'care theme'. It has also un-apologetically targeted the rich or wealthy folks who want a posh home - in Auckland anyway. Or high to very high living standards elsewhere. Top end niche accommodation. I'm ok with that, it is what differentiates OCA. The ageing population will present enough percentage to those who can afford to pay for it, the RYMs and SUMs can have the rest.

There are lots of companies who have parts of their business that draw in customers but are not very profitable, or even make a loss, in favour of all the other components of the business and services that are profitable, resulting in an overall successful and profitable business.





That would be wonderful if it could happen.

I respect my friend Maverick when he says that basic care is still marginally profitable but all my instincts as a bean counter tell me it all depends upon the cost base you use. If you amortize a fair proportion of managements time and head office overhead and costs to the basic underfunded care side of their business, (which is still a big component of their existing business model), I would respectfully suggest they make a significant loss on the provision of those services. What is completely without debate is that it does not give a satisfactory return on capital employed.

Even after the complete scheduled transformation of their business model which is still about 5 years away basic care that is woefully underfunded by Govt makes up about 30% of their business model, (from memory), and its clear in this very socialist political environment Oceania will never get an acceptable return and is statute barred from charging those customers more as I understand it.

Therefore OCA's business model for the foreseeable future is analogous to driving a pretty good car with the handbrake partially on. I say a pretty good car because I believe most people really want a full feature retirement village with all the bells and whistles not a boutique one like OCA generally provide. The evidence with SUM backs this up with many units presold long before delivery and long wait lists at many of their established villages. SUM is in effect, the Mercedes-Benz of this sector. With OCA you can't take that pretty good car down to the mechanic and get the handbrake to release properly straight away and that's why this car is cheap and will probably stay cheap for the foreseeable future.

Over time my hope is that they will continue their business model transformation such that they move further and further away and eventually completely eliminate the provision of basic care services. The handbrake will be fixed then but that's maybe 10 years away and only if management continue to transform their business model.

Sadly, the time is coming in N.Z. when if all you can afford is affordable Govt funded basic level late stage care, its probably going to be a case of good luck finding a decent operator to provide it. That is the future this socialist Govt is setting old folks up for...hurting the very people they are supposed to represent...oh the irony !

I will try and remain a shareholder for a few more years and see if they can make any meaningful progress but my patience to see acceptable returns to shareholders on their risk capital employed is not infinite. One supposes that with the massive explosion in Covid cases in N.Z. (over 13,000 today) its inevitable we will see some deaths in care facilities for the various listed operators soon and that's not going to help market sentiment !

[Maverick]

I fully agree with you Beagle that it would be an easy job to demonstrate that care loses money. With just a few tweaks and reallocations of expenses as you rightly suggest it can be as ugly as one needs. But as the accounts are officially laid out here are the figures to date. (reprinted from an earlier post)

The ratio of operations expense /care fees tells a grim picture:
2017-83%...2018-87%..2019-.90%...2020-97%...2021-97%...2022-(inc estimated 2hy) 97%.


I got ahead of myself in excitement this morning when I read Andrew Littles intention to finally chuck a lot of money at the problem. I was anticipating a move like this as funding cuts as above have created an unsustainable industry that we simply cannot do without.
I've tried to imagine how the govt can funnel money to just the mom and pop operations and I can't see how they can do it . It's just too messy and manipulatable. The current system is already region and crudely needs specific and works well, it's just underfunded. Neither charity nor corporates are making proper (if any) money out of care.

And yes, I have to agree with you too louloubell, however it is restructured on how the extra money is handed out, it will be done in a style to just match any required pay rises as you suggest. So my first reaction this morning that any of the extra $ going to the bottom line is incorrect.

Anyhows...as said a load times, care does not, nor ever will make money. We ALL agree on that.

In saying that , OCA is tactically correct to persevere with the care component, profitable or not.

What the care is about and why it must stay is 3 fold:
1. building high density vertical care suits on the corner of the acreage unlocks free prime land for $$$premium apartments.(the real money spinner)
2. It gives OCA a point of difference in its brand, culture and offering.
3. Continium care is the NO1 reason folk choose a village. (That can only get more important).

What I don't agree with you on Beagle is that things will get worse. (As far as cost and market sentiment) IMO we have well and truely already reached that space.

I am standing by my comments this morning, that those who have endured the ongoing share price pain and negative market sentiment of this company to this point have done the hard yards already and when the FY comes out it will be much prettier than nearly all are expecting.

[Waltzing]

An investor can buy back in at any point in time or exit as the market is not the old ticker tape paper certificate. You can always place an off market order and have it filled if its or a reasonable size.

Investors are not limited to just buying retail on market even in NZ.

[percy]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Maverick again.
Well I tried.
Another excellent post Maverick.Thank you.

[Beagle]

Baa Baa Just probing a bit, are you suggesting that OCA abandon the continuum of care part of the business model because the late care part of that strategy is marginal profit or in your analysis a loss leader?

Definitely not abandon care altogether. Abandon basic care, (small rooms with no facilities such as on-suite) that is underfunded by the Govt) YES !
An acceptable return for shareholders can be made from their care suites with possibly some tweaks to the DMF model, (I think 15% 15%, 10%) for a total of 40% is probably going to be needed in the future rather than the 30% model they use now and significantly increase the cost of premium rooms for those that don't want to engage in the care suite model. Leave basic care as the Government's problem, they're not funding it so sheet the problem back where it belongs. I know that sounds harsh but if the Govt are going to treat so called greedy corporate retirement villages as pariah's, (which seems to be the general overtone of their most recent statement), then there's going to be pushback sooner or later and those looking for basic level late stage care are going to be caught between a rock and a hard place.

Maverick - Mate my thesis is that the nursing shortage is going to get worse as more and more have to isolate due to catching Covid and they are going to have to pay them more because at present the nursing profession is in the hottest demand one in the world and there's HUGE money on offer overseas. The Govt is not going to properly fund nurses here when, (not if) they start costing $100,000 per annum so I'll give you one guess who is going to have to pick up the shortfall in care costs, that's right, shareholders.

Maverick What I don't agree with you on Beagle is that things will get worse. (As far as cost and market sentiment) IMO we have well and truely already reached that space.
We are going to have to agree to disagree mate. Wait until the bodies start piling up and the nurse and caregiver shortage gets even more critical. You won't have to wait long. Nobody can call the bottom, not you and not I. My very recent 1974 Commonwealth Games coin toss is just as likely to be right as it is wrong and has certainly been right so far $1.11 down to $1.05 in a very short space of time.

Who's to say there's isn't another 6 cent decline in short order or 2 or 3 times that ? What I do note is there is no TA signal that I am aware of that suggests a bottom is in...just the "abandoned baby" look to the chart.

Disc: I still hold a 6 figure sized stake but I am not going to try and delude myself this storm is over. I am happy to ride the storm out for as long as it takes but fasten your seat belts folks, more turbulence ahead ! Not backing the truck up yet and not even looking for the keys to warm it up.
Probably toss that coin again in late March if and only if there's some glimmer of hope indicated by TA signals.

[Ferg]

The aged care element is an attraction for some people. A number of businesses have what is called a "loss leader" to bring in clients - yes they might lose on one part of the business but that is more than made up for in other parts of the business. But to cut off the loss leader might have a bigger impact on the business than just what the books say for that one part.

But more importantly, OCA will be walking a tightrope on the provision of aged care services. They can't show super profits for fear of getting less Government funding. But they can't show losses for fear of getting shareholders offside (plus they will genuinely NOT want to lose money on these services). They will want to be "in step" with similar service providers nationally. I have no doubt Management are aware of this and we should give them some credit for having to walk this tightrope.

The DHB will know exactly what it costs to run this sort of service, even with differing levels of service based on patient needs. Health contracts often have financial adjusters for exactly these sorts of things. The DHB will also know COVID issues and mandates will be impacting upon the demands on and recruitment of staff - they face the exact same problems. The DHBs are not silly, and nor is Management. An advantage for OCA is they will likely work across multiple DHBs so they will know what they are doing. Plus it is a symbiotic relationship where each needs the other. The DHB do not want to provide the service, but the service is needed so it has to be funded correctly, otherwise private sector capacity will be reduced. I expect there will be increased funding from 1 July.

Before we jump to conclusions about the fairness of giving extra funding for small charity providers, there are already equivalent adjusters in the health sector. For instance, rural practices get upwards financial adjusters given they do not have the benefit of scale like city practices. There are also adjusters in various contracts based on patient needs. In other words, not everything is vanilla and it has not been for some time. And whilst Andrew Little might espouse his socialist views on the industry, I'm not worried about it given the private sector have shown they are better than central Government at building aged care capacity and providing such services. Plus there have been various financial adjusters in health contracts for many years. Let's give Management and the Board some credit for knowing what they are doing - we are working off minimal information compared to them and they are looking forward a lot more than we are.

[Beagle]

Good post Ferg and fair enough. I guess after nearly 5 years I am impatient to see eps growth. Heck, just getting underlying eps back to where it was in 2018 seems like an enormous challenge at this stage.

[Ferg]

Patience my dear fellow, patience.

Some basic stats:

2017:

Care Beds 2,580 (income = Government funding + some premium payments)
Care Suites 242 (income = Government funding + premium payments + DMF fees)
Units 1,054 (income = gains on sale/resale + DMF + activities + opex recovery)


2022 half year:

Care Beds 1,803 (down 777 or -30% since 2017)
Care Suites 849 (up 607 or +251% since 2017)
Units 1,509 (up 455 or +43% since 2017)


We can already see the numbers shifting as premium care revenues increase. Projections put the number of care suites more than the number care beds some time in the next 2-3 years.

The half year development pipeline under construction increased by 150 units and suites over the last year end presentation.

Per their last half year report they said "CEO and GGM of Nursing & Clinical Strategy lobbying on behalf of the industry" under "Industry Advocacy" and they put the cost of COVID requirements at around $1m, which included a $350k one off gratitude payment to staff.

Also "Oceania has entered into an exclusive partnership with Bay of Plenty DHB to explore and develop a new service model for high needs and complex aged care residents."

OCA are not being passive or being passengers through this process - they are proactively seeking to solve the issues the industry faces.

I see a snowball effect coming but it requires patience.

[Maverick]

Ferg, thanks for those most excellent posts! particularly the refreshing point of giving credit to the many competent people in the process of these price settings that they are beavering away behind the scenes.

Just for fun Beagle, in regards to not knowing the bottom or top, of course that's true. But OCA is not some far off foreign IT company we are talking about here. We all know the NZ culture and specific stage we are at with covid and are in the luxurious position of knowing almost exactly what will happen and how its going to play out thanks to Aussy being 2 months ahead of us. As intelligent investors we will see through the media headlines and public fear to have a pretty darn good guess at what's coming. No need for coin tossing at all.

I loosely follow a few Aussy care stocks ( they don't have many and they run different models , but "aged care" they are.) One got taken over last year which leaves pretty well just Regis (REG). Check outs its SP chart for the last 2 years during all this, particularly the last 4 months when omicron surfaced.

It seems obvious to me NZ is now 1-2 weeks away from peak NZ infection. Something Aussy delt with late December. By overlaying the REG share price action and their covid timeline to ours, then one could easily say OCA has reached its own covid fear induced bottom last week or so ( sure, Ukraine muddies things) . Last week REG also came out with a profit report and what do you know...(just like SUM last week) everything is sailing along just dandy.

IMO this is an exceptional case where this is more science rather than "baby bottoms" and "heads and shoulders" charting stuff . I seriously think we can say with some confidence "about now is likely to be the optimum time to buy."

For any future readers the SP is $1.05.

[Greekwatchdog]

Slightly off OCA, but ARV should issue their "Newsletter" in the next week or so. After SUM's result earlier last week this should give us further update how the sector is going.

[winner69]

What's this talk of Oceania making no money on care beds

They proudly say that EBITDA per care bed is about $10,000 - and that's before dev margins and resale gains.

[Beagle]

Maybe people should look up the 6 month chart and ask themselves what sign is there that the bottom is already in ? When we eventually break back above the 30 day moving average line (currently just over $1.15), there is a reasonable chance the downtrend is over.

I have learned from bitter experience there's no money in trying to pick bottom's.

~ 15,000 cases today...what could possibly go wrong :eek2:

[Greekwatchdog]

Only numbers Beagle, the only numbers we need to worry about are people in Hospital and ICU.

[Waltzing]

"I see .... patience."

in the mean time if the presentation of FA and the result isnt clear the market might put a sub 1 handle on it.

[BlackPeter]

...

Maverick - Mate my thesis is that the nursing shortage is going to get worse as more and more have to isolate due to catching Covid and they are going to have to pay them more because at present the nursing profession is in the hottest demand one in the world and there's HUGE money on offer overseas. The Govt is not going to properly fund nurses here when, (not if) they start costing $100,000 per annum so I'll give you one guess who is going to have to pick up the shortfall in care costs, that's right, shareholders.

We are going to have to agree to disagree mate. Wait until the bodies start piling up and the nurse and caregiver shortage gets even more critical. You won't have to wait long. Nobody can call the bottom, not you and not I. My very recent 1974 Commonwealth Games coin toss is just as likely to be right as it is wrong and has certainly been right so far $1.11 down to $1.05 in a very short space of time.

Who's to say there's isn't another 6 cent decline in short order or 2 or 3 times that ? What I do note is there is no TA signal that I am aware of that suggests a bottom is in...just the "abandoned baby" look to the chart.

Disc: I still hold a 6 figure sized stake but I am not going to try and delude myself this storm is over. I am happy to ride the storm out for as long as it takes but fasten your seat belts folks, more turbulence ahead ! Not backing the truck up yet and not even looking for the keys to warm it up.
Probably toss that coin again in late March if and only if there's some glimmer of hope indicated by TA signals.

Sounds like you expect Armageddon to arrive over the next couple of weeks. Who knows, maybe it does and NZ is the only country in the world which crashes under Omicron ... most other countries (like US. UK, Australia) are already over it. Sure - there might be a handful of "interesting" weeks to come, but what difference does this do exactly to anybody with a time horizon longer then a fruit fly?

But lets assume you are right and the world as we know it goes under - what I can't understand is why you still would bother under these circumstances about financial returns? I am sure we all have enough funds to cover the coming weeks ... and hey, after the end of the world we won't need the money any more. It even could be a disadvantage if you remember Matthew 19.24: "Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.” According to the good book should we all buy OCA and hope that beagle is right that it will loose in value, assuming we want to enter the kingdom of god.

With all due respect, but I think you might be overestimating the long-term impact of Omicron. This is a short term issue, quite irrelevant for any investor, though the hype ripple might well offer traders some interesting opportunities ...

[Waltzing]

Note 3.1 in the FA is where all the action appears to be then.

Else the PL would look like another year of costs keeping up with profit as pointed out by MR B...

[dobby41]

Sounds like you expect Armageddon to arrive over the next couple of weeks. Who knows, maybe it does and NZ is the only country in the world which crashes under Omicron ... most other countries (like US. UK, Australia) are already over it. Sure - there might be a handful of "interesting" weeks to come, but what difference does this do exactly to anybody with a time horizon longer then a fruit fly?

A good point there.

[Beagle]

TA has to be a worry - In a nutshell what I am saying is that the chart shows the share price is in a steady downtrend for the last 6 months. No TA indicator is signaling the downtrend is over.

Why is this the only stock in the sector to trade at a huge discount to NAV ? There's good reasons that I have made very clear.

In my experience when anyone claims they are able to pick the bottom and their analysis is better than what TA is telling you I have learned even if such a person is your friend and well respected on here it is best to ignore that person's bold claim. The old dog knows this from long experience.

From a fundamental analysis perspective underlying eps has gone backwards since this listed. There is no way to debate this unfortunate fact.

Rather than trying to pick a bottom maybe a more astute move on a risk-reward basis is to wait for a new uptrend to emerge as hopefully confirmed by a break up through the 30 day moving average in due course ?

Armageddon ? - well, NSW had more than 80 deaths a day at the peak...that's pretty gnarly in anyone's book. https://www.bing.com/search?q=nsw+covid+deaths+update&cvid=1b78f4d4392d49d8a92b2c86fb26f8cd&aqs=edge.1.0l9.10391j0j1&pglt=43&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=U531&ntref=1

[Waltzing]

On the basis of Periodic reporting isnt expenses tracking 3.6% ahead of Increases in Income?

but that means income will have to rise even faster.

[Beagle]

On the basis of Periodic reporting isnt expenses tracking 3.6% ahead of Increases in Income?

but that means income will have to rise even faster.

Been a problem for a long time now.

[Waltzing]

Yes the proportional variances should start to move the other way if the model and the machinery of their business is working.

In the mean time if the SP handle price get to low then they do become a take over target.

[Baa_Baa]

Good discussion folks, thanks. A few references to TA are right to point out that there is no 'bottom' locked in, it could still easily go either way.

The only things offering some glimmer of encouragement on the chart is that $1.05 has appeared six times in the past two weeks as support. Backing out to a big picture monthly chart (https://invst.ly/xih0x) and $1.03 is the 61.8% fib retrace from the March 2020 monthly Covid closing price, that suggests some technical support.

On the other hand, it's still tracking down on the 9-day EMA which is as short term as I care to look, and is miles below the long-EMA's, a bit like miles below NAV/NTA.

[Cyclical]

Armageddon ? - well, NSW had more than 80 deaths a day at the peak...that's pretty gnarly in anyone's book. https://www.bing.com/search?q=nsw+covid+deaths+update&cvid=1b78f4d4392d49d8a92b2c86fb26f8cd&aqs=edge.1.0l9.10391j0j1&pglt=43&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=U531&ntref=1

Not wishing to trivialise covid deaths, but some perspective wouldn't go astray...there was one day when it hit 84 deaths, which was head and shoulders above every other day. The 7 day average was 40 at the time.

Armageddon for in my view would be this Ukraine thing sparking WW3, in which case losing a few bucks is likely to be the least of our worries.

Thanks all, there have been some excellent posts in this thread over the weekend. I'll reiterate my thinking from a couple of weeks ago...at these prices, it's accumulate. And if it dips further, great, DCA it is. If there's not an opportunity to sell these for at least a 10% profit in the next 12 months, I'll eat my hat.

[Habits]

Good discussion folks, thanks. A few references to TA are right to point out that there is no 'bottom' locked in, it could still easily go either way.

The only things offering some glimmer of encouragement on the chart is that $1.05 has appeared six times in the past two weeks as support. Backing out to a big picture monthly chart (https://invst.ly/xih0x) and $1.03 is the 61.8% fib retrace from the March 2020 monthly Covid closing price, that suggests some technical support.

On the other hand, it's still tracking down on the 9-day EMA which is as short term as I care to look, and is miles below the long-EMA's, a bit like miles below NAV/NTA.

Just looking at the recent OCA chart, it immediately stood out as going lower and cracking below 1.05 ... not tomorrow surely as we should follow the dow and move higher.

[ralph]

No Opinion's there Thanks, just facts josh .

[BlackPeter]

TA has to be a worry - In a nutshell what I am saying is that the chart shows the share price is in a steady downtrend for the last 6 months. No TA indicator is signaling the downtrend is over.

Why is this the only stock in the sector to trade at a huge discount to NAV ? There's good reasons that I have made very clear.

In my experience when anyone claims they are able to pick the bottom and their analysis is better than what TA is telling you I have learned even if such a person is your friend and well respected on here it is best to ignore that person's bold claim. The old dog knows this from long experience.

From a fundamental analysis perspective underlying eps has gone backwards since this listed. There is no way to debate this unfortunate fact.

Rather than trying to pick a bottom maybe a more astute move on a risk-reward basis is to wait for a new uptrend to emerge as hopefully confirmed by a break up through the 30 day moving average in due course ?

Armageddon ? - well, NSW had more than 80 deaths a day at the peak...that's pretty gnarly in anyone's book. https://www.bing.com/search?q=nsw+covid+deaths+update&cvid=1b78f4d4392d49d8a92b2c86fb26f8cd&aqs=edge.1.0l9.10391j0j1&pglt=43&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=U531&ntref=1

Fair enough ... the trend so far does not look pretty though there seems to be some sort of local bottom / support line. I agree however that nobody can predict whether this is just the bottom before the next ripple down or the change of the trend.

That's the thing with TA - it does not predict the future, but it gives you some sense of the current mood in the market ... and this is clearly undecided.

Looking back at Covid dip mach 1 I started the slow averaging in with a planned 12 month window and found out that I still had most of my cash when the markets had already recovered. The fast recovery (which many, including myself thought a dead cat bounce) just surprised me. Tough luck.

Learning from that am I this time earlier buying, not in BEAR and more in shares. Obviously - nobody can tell how this dip is going to behave - are we still on the way down or already up again? Will it be the same V-shaped recovery like last time? Anybody who says he (she) knows is kidding him (or her-) self.

Personally do I think the worst Covid jitters of the market are over (but hey, this is a personal view) and while I have no means of knowing whether the madman Putin is going to start WW III in earnest (which clearly could kill millions on both sides of the iron curtain and contaminate worst case significant parts of Europe and Northern Asia) ... I am sure that the world economy will do just fine without Russia. Excellent motivation to help the Western world to wean themselves off gas and oil doing a cold turkey. So yes - I am more optimistic and yes, I might be as wrong (or wronger) as the pessimists may or may not be.

Learned however some decades ago in a management course that while optimists are not more often right then pessimists, they do tend to live longer.

I like this idea :p :t_up:;

[Waltzing]

Looks like MR B was right after all... again..they better lock the doors in the rest homes.

Herald this morning.

"More than 800 Counties Manukau DHB staff are not at work because they're sick or a member of their household has Covid-19, as case numbers in hospitals rise."

[Beau]

Looks like MR B was right after all... again..they better lock the doors in the rest homes.

Herald this morning.

"More than 800 Counties Manukau DHB staff are not at work because they're sick or a member of their household has Covid-19, as case numbers in hospitals rise."



Don’t know about the other rest homes but Rymans have already shut the doors to visitors.I would think the others have as well or will follow on.

[Waltzing]

well take overs are off for while.

Hard to inspect the foundations when the gates are locked.

you can only sniff from the curb and bark.

[thebusinessman]

My grandad is in a BUPA home and as of today all visitors must RAT test on the way in, and visiting hours have been halved... Glad they're taking it seriously.

[Beagle]

well take overs are off for while.

Hard to inspect the foundations when the gates are locked.

you can only sniff from the curb and bark.

I've temporarily gone hoarse from all the barking, I am sure some will be pleased lol

[Greekwatchdog]

well take overs are off for while.

Hard to inspect the foundations when the gates are locked.

you can only sniff from the curb and bark.

You can get into Building sites following correct protocols. You can't just walk in if your visiting loved ones etc..

[James108]

Construction is still occurring. Albeit a lot of sites have high Covid absences.

[Beagle]

Maybe the company could consider a share buy-back ?

[winner69]

Maybe the company could consider a share buy-back ?

they borrow to pay the divie so why not borrow zillions more for a buyback ....cool

[Waltzing]

Brilliant idea, Buy Back, they WILL MAKE IT WORK.

dont think they would allow a take over offer specialists just wander all over the sites being built would they?

Guided tour?

Note 3.1 has been made to work.

[Habits]

I "wonder" if you mean wander? This has me wondering

[Waltzing]

Thanks for that habits... yes :eek2:

i was wondering if they would let the Oppo just wander all over the site..

[winner69]

Tockland hocked off their villages for about a billion the other day. Infratil/NZ Super doing the rounds to hock off RetireAustralia, probably worth about a billion.

Interested buyers might look further afield and say that Oceania looks a good / better buy

Let’s hope so ….$1.40 would be good.

[Waltzing]

it would be hard to increase any holdings; the fingers on the buttons would be pressing down so fast...

[winner69]

Suppose we need to wait until late May before we will told what a stellar year Oceania have had

And then we will wonder how come the OCA share price ever went below $1 (in Aussie that is)

[thebusinessman]

My grandad is in a BUPA home and as of today all visitors must RAT test on the way in, and visiting hours have been halved... Glad they're taking it seriously.

It lasted one day. Some visitors complained and two nurses were off wards testing visitors (in a nursing shortage). They've gone back to no RAT tests for visitors... Not sure how I feel about it.

[dobby41]

It lasted one day. Some visitors complained and two nurses were off wards testing visitors (in a nursing shortage). They've gone back to no RAT tests for visitors... Not sure how I feel about it.

But RATs were going to solve everything - or so said the opinionists. :lol:

[Ggcc]

It lasted one day. Some visitors complained and two nurses were off wards testing visitors (in a nursing shortage). They've gone back to no RAT tests for visitors... Not sure how I feel about it.

Couldn’t family just wait for rats to hit the stores and out of courtesy test themselves before they see their loved ones. Self ownership rather than victim mentality.

[850man]

Couldn’t family just wait for rats to hit the stores and out of courtesy test themselves before they see their loved ones. Self ownership rather than victim mentality.

That would be too sensible, taking personal responsibility. Certainly not the sort of decision our gov't thinks people are capable of making

[dobby41]

Couldn’t family just wait for rats to hit the stores and out of courtesy test themselves before they see their loved ones. Self ownership rather than victim mentality.

A friend of mine is a close contact or family member - tested negative 3 days in a row (RAT) despite having a sore throat.
Tested positive on the 4th day - they have variable accuracy.

[850man]

A friend of mine is a close contact or family member - tested negative 3 days in a row (RAT) despite having a sore throat.
Tested positive on the 4th day - they have variable accuracy.

A work colleague has a sore throat, lost all sense of smell and developed a fever. he had a PCR test and it was negative. Very much a surprise. Can we trust either or is it that we are just too paranoid and need to exit the covid fear mindset that this government has brainwashed us with

[dobby41]

A work colleague has a sore throat, lost all sense of smell and developed a fever. he had a PCR test and it was negative. Very much a surprise. Can we trust either or is it that we are just too paranoid and need to exit the covid fear mindset that this government has brainwashed us with

Has he since tested positive?
Maybe he is negative.

I have no covid fear mindset - do you?
Veering away from OCA now.

[Cyclical]

Couldn’t family just wait for rats to hit the stores and out of courtesy test themselves before they see their loved ones. Self ownership rather than victim mentality.


That would be too sensible, taking personal responsibility. Certainly not the sort of decision our gov't thinks people are capable of making

Not an easy concept to grapple with in this nanny state unfortunately. People are sick of the endless rules, but have also forgotten how to be sensible and think for themselves and of others.

[Cyclical]

A work colleague has a sore throat, lost all sense of smell and developed a fever. he had a PCR test and it was negative. Very much a surprise. Can we trust either or is it that we are just too paranoid and need to exit the covid fear mindset that this government has brainwashed us with

Accordingly to Bloomfield in the Herald, loss of sense of smell (or taste) doesn't appear to be a symptom of Omicron. Could be Delta I spose.

[thebusinessman]

but have also forgotten how to be sensible and think for themselves and of others.
This is exactly right, and when we've forgotten how to think of others in a global pandemic it's unfortunate but necessary for the powers to give us a push.

[Ggcc]

A friend of mine is a close contact or family member - tested negative 3 days in a row (RAT) despite having a sore throat.
Tested positive on the 4th day - they have variable accuracy.

I think if you had a sore throat you already have a reason not to visit.

[bull....]

sons got covid or omnicron sore throat , headache tiredness spread thru all 6 of his flatmates super quick. they are all very young

[fish]

10 cases at a local rest home.
Only one really sick-the only one unvaccinated.
Family now want him admitted to hospital-hospital refused the admission request .
they are now feeling very guilty for their decision not to vaccinate

[thebusinessman]

It lasted one day. Some visitors complained and two nurses were off wards testing visitors (in a nursing shortage). They've gone back to no RAT tests for visitors... Not sure how I feel about it.

I apologise if this is close to off-topic but I mention it with respect to the challenges rest-homes are facing.

Following a management directive, the visiting hours have been cut again and back to everyone needing a RA test to visit. This is not an OCA home, it's a BUPA one, but they are clearly responding to perceived risk.

[dabsman]

I apologise if this is close to off-topic but I mention it with respect to the challenges rest-homes are facing.

Following a management directive, the visiting hours have been cut again and back to everyone needing a RA test to visit. This is not an OCA home, it's a BUPA one, but they are clearly responding to perceived risk.

My daughter took 2 RA tests before third was positive. We already knew she had COVID as she was with her best friend for the whole week and the friend got COVID a few days earlier. Testing before entering rest homes is just for perception - doubt it will stop anything really

[Greekwatchdog]

Can we please talk about OCA. This thread is a damn mess.

[fish]

Can we please talk about OCA. This thread is a damn mess.
The underlying theme to recent posts is that Omicron is not going to have a devastating effect on rest homes.
IMHO Oca is oversold

[BlackPeter]

Can we please talk about OCA. This thread is a damn mess.

I second that ...

[bull....]

$1 before $2

[Rawz]

$1 before $2
I was waiting for $1 but now starting to think it won’t get there.

May never get another chance to buy this low again. Hmmm

[winner69]

I was waiting for $1 but now starting to think it won’t get there.

May never get another chance to buy this low again. Hmmm

Spot on rawz

We'll never see $1.00 again .... never again

[Sideshow Bob]

Spot on rawz

We'll never see $1.00 again .... never again

Never again....until next time......;)

[RTM]

Spot on rawz

We'll never see $1.00 again .... never again

Pretty risky Winner....we all know what happened with $1.30 and we are hoping you are not right again.

[Beagle]

I am not tempted to get my Commonwealth games coin out again just yet, (maybe mid - late this month), even though I think its just as likely to be right as Winner, Maverick, myself or anyone else on here about where the bottom is.

I think Baa Baa made a good point the other day that its bounced off the $1.05 level many times so this is some sort of modest initial indication that this possibly might be a support level but I need to see more than that. I note that the 30 day moving average is now just on $1.13. I want to see a break above that before thinking about adopting any more of these motley flea infested puppies. When it gets right onto the 30 day MA support level, that's the time to see what the coin says.

[winner69]

Pretty risky Winner....we all know what happened with $1.30 and we are hoping you are not right again.

I was wrong at 160 as well …..maybe never get it right eh

[Rawz]

What bad news is to come that will knock it below $1?

The Ukraine war and covid already priced in I reckon

Im starting to get FOMO that this is the bottom. And i dont want to miss out

[fish]

I am not tempted to get my Commonwealth games coin out again just yet, (maybe mid - late this month), even though I think its just as likely to be right as Winner, Maverick, myself or anyone else on here about where the bottom is.

I think Baa Baa made a good point the other day that its bounced off the $1.05 level many times so this is some sort of modest initial indication that this possibly might be a support level but I need to see more than that. I note that the 30 day moving average is now just on $1.13. I want to see a break above that before thinking about adopting any more of these motley flea infested puppies. When it gets right onto the 30 day MA support level, that's the time to see what the coin says.
I have been buying throughout the day at 106.
As I feel the big drop in sp has been mainly fueled by omicron fear .
Early reports Indicate to me that triple vaccination renders omicron less severe than expected but more transmissible than typical winter flu .
It has spread rapidly in an old poorly ventilated rest home/dementia unit.
In a nearby modern retirement home-good a/c and individual rooms-no cases
looks to me that we will reach peak omicron soon(before end of March)
Lots of cases in Auckland or Northland and very few in icu-cases in icu dropped today !

[Cyclical]

What bad news is to come that will knock it below $1?

The Ukraine war and covid already priced in I reckon

Im starting to get FOMO that this is the bottom. And i dont want to miss out

Just make a well considered toe dip. Regardless of where the price of these "motley flea infested puppies" go in the short term, they are still cheap in the broad scheme of things ;-)

[Poolboy]

This is what we have been dreading...


Have I missed something?

Haha, have you noticed anything yet? Today I mean? Pays to red they news if you're gonna play this game.

[Baa_Baa]

The only things offering some glimmer of encouragement on the chart is that $1.05 has appeared six times in the past two weeks as support.

On the other hand, it's still tracking down on the 9-day EMA which is as short term as I care to look, and is miles below the long-EMA's, a bit like miles below NAV/NTA.

Nothing changed, another week and $1.05, 10 times in 15 days, still support and tracking under the short 9EMA. Slow MACD crossed up on the 28th Feb. A bottoming pattern is forming. Encouraging volume green today.

[Rawz]

Nothing changed, another week and $1.05, 10 times in 15 days, still support and tracking under the short 9EMA. Slow MACD crossed up on the 28th Feb. A bottoming pattern is forming. Encouraging volume green today.

Looking good BaaBaa.

Get the keys guys and gals… start the truck up..

[bull....]

i certainly wont be backing the truck up. As pretty much the only person who was saying dont buy retirement sector stocks mths ago and proven right i must say , it definitely is not the bottom in these stocks.

[Rawz]

i certainly wont be backing the truck up. As pretty much the only person who was saying dont buy retirement sector stocks mths ago and proven right i must say , it definitely is not the bottom in these stocks.
It’s true you called it.

But my question is master bull, why is this not the bottom? What news is there to knock it below $1.

The ‘waiting for $1’ crowd, which I am part of, may miss out, meanwhile cheap shares are being snapped up on the daily

[winner69]

It’s true you called it.

But my question is master bull, why is this not the bottom? What news is there to knock it below $1.

The ‘waiting for $1’ crowd, which I am part of, may miss out, meanwhile cheap shares are being snapped up on the daily

So many ‘losers’ ….selling at giveaway prices …..irrational

[850man]

If FOMO is your motivator that should be setting off an alarm bell

[Beagle]

I was reading the other day in some real estate publication that in the real estate market FOMO has been replaced by FOPT (fear of paying too much).
Probably the same going on here.

[ralph]

I was reading the other day in some real estate publication that in the real estate market FOMO has been replaced by FOPT (fear of paying too much).
Probably the same going on here.
And Quite rightly so ,I am guilty

[Rawz]

I have FOMOOTB

[RTM]

I have FOMOOTB

Hmmm…to hard for me. I can imagine:
FOMOFOPT

[Rawz]

Hmmm…to hard for me. I can imagine:
FOMOFOPT
I have ‘fear of missing out on the bottom’ lol

Very different from FOMO

[fish]

Hmmm…to hard for me. I can imagine:
FOMOFOPT

Your pm inbox is full and not accepting new pm

[Joshuatree]

I have no FOFIP!:t_up:

[RTM]

Your pm inbox is full and not accepting new pm

Thanks. I’ve cleared it out a bit, should be fine now.

[winner69]

Thanks. I’ve cleared it out a bit, should be fine now.

You'll get the secret inside info now ....lucky you