OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Rawz]

Well that’s nice to read, Mav. I bought some more yesterday to add to my ever growing pile. Thought $1.52 was reasonable buying

[Mudfish]

What a treat on the iPad this morning! I see an advert pop up for Eden now selling. :)
That just might save the HY1 result to some degree.
I recently recalculated/posted a ho- hum result because of Aucklands longer lockdown but this offers a glimmer of hope and suggests it might not be too bad after all .

SUM said recently 60% of their new offerings were pre sold so logically OCA should have some presales sneak in before month end too . I do know the Sands and Meadow bank sold the most expensive stuff first when they opened. To be clear OCA have never mentioned anything about presales so I'm just joining my own dots here.
Regardless whether they sell many this 1HY , because they delivered on time they will sell a nice bunch this FY no doubt whatsoever.

Looks like despite the lockdown and chronic supply issues that OCA has managed to deliver on its original schedule . (Eden was there only scheduled completion this 1HY.). They have never missed a target yet despite some enormous disruptions, well done guys.

Thanks Mav.. I've just had a wee look on Trade Me. It's certainly all go at Eden. I'm figuring, there's not a.lot of time for sales this half, unless pre sales as you have pointed out, but it certainly looks another classy piece of work. Very impressive. Cheers for heads up.

[Mudfish]

On another note, I've just taken my very elderly mother in law supermarket shopping. Holy heck, what a wake up call for me. It's normally me zipping around the isles getting the job done. When on the other foot, anyone moving faster than a snail seems reckless and hellbent on running my mother in law over. Just walking the length of an isle was mission. It's got me thinking how elderly really can struggle in a fast moving world and how great OCA and other operators are at providing a safe havens for them. I see why they don't care about fee structures and all that. They just want to feel safe. Anyway, OCA and others doing a great service I reckon. As I said, a real wake up for me.

[winner69]

On another note, I've just taken my very elderly mother in law supermarket shopping. Holy heck, what a wake up call for me. It's normally me zipping around the isles getting the job done. When on the other foot, anyone moving faster than a snail seems reckless and hellbent on running my mother in law over. Just walking the length of an isle was mission. It's got me thinking how elderly really can struggle in a fast moving world and how great OCA and other operators are at providing a safe havens for them. I see why they don't care about fee structures and all that. They just want to feel safe. Anyway, OCA and others doing a great service I reckon. As I said, a real wake up for me.

We learnt to avoid the local supermarket on Thursday morning when the minibus from the local Arvida village turns up

[Mudfish]

Weird share price movement today. To me it looks like 2 maybe 3 holders sold a decent parcel which removed price support then a bunch of people have decided they better sell quick and applying downwards pressure. Strange behaviour as no new information. I'm tempted to top up. Any thoughts out there?

[Sideshow Bob]

Weird share price movement today. To me it looks like 2 maybe 3 holders sold a decent parcel which removed price support then a bunch of people have decided they better sell quick and applying downwards pressure. Strange behaviour as no new information. I'm tempted to top up. Any thoughts out there?

Not all bad - had a buy order filled at $1.49 that had been sitting there for a while.

[Greekwatchdog]

Maybe Earl and Stockton selling more shares...

[Beau]

Pick up a few at $1.47 couldn’t resist , be all right long term.

[Onion]

Pick up a few at $1.47 couldn’t resist , be all right long term.

Can everyone just stop selling OCA shares at such low prices. I want the SP to go up and the only way that will happen is if everyone stops giving these away so cheaply! :(

[winner69]

Can everyone just stop selling OCA shares at such low prices. I want the SP to go up and the only way that will happen is if everyone stops giving these away so cheaply! :(

It’ll go up tomorrow …no worries

[justakiwi]

Don't panic. if you can afford to buy more, take advantage of the situation. I wish I had some spare cash to do so.


Can everyone just stop selling OCA shares at such low prices. I want the SP to go up and the only way that will happen is if everyone stops giving these away so cheaply! :(

[Baa_Baa]

Maybe Earl and Stockton selling more shares...

There's nothing I can see that's unusual in the trading data today, no big crossings off-market or any very large on-market trades, just steady downdraft all day and a 2 cent dump into the close.

Volume overall was also modest. There's an increasing number of very small / low value trades each day.

Bit unusual to see chart gaps on OCA, especially on no news (that I'm aware of), last down gap on open was the cap raise announce at $1.30 when the SP was about $1.39 at the time.

So no clues that I can see, maybe some got triggered by the fall through 50EMA and then again through the 100EMA. Interesting it landed perfectly on the 61.8% Fib retrace.

[Onion]

Don't panic. if you can afford to buy more, take advantage of the situation. I wish I had some spare cash to do so.

I already have more than I ought. I got more in March last year at "proper discount" prices and want to "rebalance" ... but being a bit greedy have targeted somewhere in the low 1.60's to do so. But the SP has stubbornly, frustratingly, refused to go there!

[Beagle]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519346/rising-bond-yields-push-shares-down.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+Sep+ 2021

AIR up 3.5% and OCA down about the same. Very strange times. Delta blues sending people a bit loopy ?

My day is best summed up with this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d1_mBBmOZg

[Ggcc]

Don't panic. if you can afford to buy more, take advantage of the situation. I wish I had some spare cash to do so.

I agree longterm this is an amazing share

[justakiwi]

Interesting article I just read, which supports my predictions re a future dementia crisis.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300416659/dementia-cases-expected-to-double-by-2050-costs-to-reach-6b-per-year--report

Providers need to start planning for this now. I also think they need to re-think current models of care for dementia. This would be my dream model. I would love to see OCA take the lead with something like this.

https://thehawthorndale.co.nz/

[Cabinet]

Having tried to get my Dad, suffering from dementia, into a care home in the UK a few years ago, I wish I could have found something like that justakiwi

[bottomfeeder]

Don't panic. if you can afford to buy more, take advantage of the situation. I wish I had some spare cash to do so.

Can only think this sell off is as a result of the threat of increasing interest rates. And if course the future hyperinflation and collapse of the money supply. OCA as I see it is well placed to weather most financial future adjustments. After all they have just raised over a 100mill at 3%, and last I heard people are not going to stop getting older. Hyperinflation will only benefit residential villages as soon they wont be able to build anymore at todays prices.(even though we all think they are currently exorbitant) I believe many older people will preempt selling their properties and moving into residential care while residential property is at a high. So who is selling, perhaps margin traders, borrowers who financed their share purchases, small holders, panickers, etc. When do we start buying? If it gets below $1.40 I am all in, even though I am so overweight in OCA.

[Blue Skies]

In a market where its getting harder to find undervalued stocks, OCA looks like a winner to me.
Not complaining about the current SP, provides an opportunity for a top up.

[Bjauck]

Can everyone just stop selling OCA shares at such low prices. I want the SP to go up and the only way that will happen is if everyone stops giving these away so cheaply! :(
I am wondering if some investors have been spooked by The Retirement Village Residents Ass. Claim that The Retirement Companies run a quasi-Ponzi schem (with respect to ORAs). For some, they may see that as adding an element of political risk if Labour take up the lance to try to supposedly act as a warrior for fairness. Adding in the current hyper-inflated state of residential property values may be enough for some to be cautious.

[BlackPeter]

Can everyone just stop selling OCA shares at such low prices. I want the SP to go up and the only way that will happen is if everyone stops giving these away so cheaply! :(

Quite the opposite - my order has not yet been filled.

Please everyone continue to sell OCA shares at the current price level ... well, actually a bit lower would still be better!

[Onion]

Quite the opposite - my order has not yet been filled.

Please everyone continue to sell OCA shares at the current price level ... well, actually a bit lower would still be better!

Good luck but we are not going to agree on the right price unless you are willing to buy some of mine at $1.61! :)

[Dlownz]

Oceania has definitely passed a great point. Witnessing at a few villages. The hastings branch has sold all of their new villas with half moving in now and the others due for completion soon. Refurbished units have all sold and for the first time they have a waiting list. The next two results are going to be a great sign of whats to come.
Currently I think the share price is undervalued and I see it at around $1.75. By November next year I'd like to see it around $2.40. But I think I'm bring Conservative. 😊

[Beau]

Oceania has definitely passed a great point. Witnessing at a few villages. The hastings branch has sold all of their new villas with half moving in now and the others due for completion soon. Refurbished units have all sold and for the first time they have a waiting list. The next two results are going to be a great sign of whats to come.
Currently I think the share price is undervalued and I see it at around $1.75. By November next year I'd like to see it around $2.40. But I think I'm bring Conservative. 

I like what I’m reading :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

Good luck but we are not going to agree on the right price unless you are willing to buy some of mine at $1.61! :)

Thank you for the friendly offer. I am sure they are worth more than that, but some friendly soul filled my offer already yesterday with a nice discount compared to your price :) - I just couldn't resist ... ;

[Greekwatchdog]

Must be due an update on Acquisition and Land Bank add. Tons of cash in the bank earning sweet FA.

[thegreatestben]

Many of our settlements at work have been delayed purely due to lockdown. Everyone wants to get these deals done but hard to satisfy some of the conditions.

Here’s hoping it’s as simple as that if there are any delays.

[Onion]

Thank you for the friendly offer. I am sure they are worth more than that, but some friendly soul filled my offer already yesterday with a nice discount compared to your price :) - I just couldn't resist ... ;

Good on you BP. I'm happy to be a OCA shareholder alongside you. I'm sure with a bit of patience the right seller will be along to satisfy me.

[dompf]

Must be due an update on Acquisition and Land Bank add. Tons of cash in the bank earning sweet FA.

yeah I’m waiting for what they are buying as well, I’ve been buying while the share price action is ho-hum; I’m overweight on a big fat position - but as a long term holder 5+ years; I can’t see this share letting me down.

And this morning gives another 165k reasons property is going to continue heading north.

[Mel]

yeah I’m waiting for what they are buying as well, I’ve been buying while the share price action is ho-hum; I’m overweight on a big fat position - but as a long term holder 5+ years; I can’t see this share letting me down.

And this morning gives another 165k reasons property is going to continue heading north.
165k reasons? - what am I missing?

[Onion]

165k reasons? - what am I missing?

I think it is the 165k visas being granted. All will need a roof over their heads.

[macduffy]

I think it is the 165k visas being granted. All will need a roof over their heads.

Aren't they already in the country? And, presumably, already have roofs (rooves?) over their heads.
;)

[Onion]

Aren't they already in the country? And, presumably, already have roofs (rooves?) over their heads.
;)

Correct - but they also won't need to vacate those houses and leave the country.

[dompf]

Aren't they already in the country? And, presumably, already have roofs (rooves?) over their heads.
;)

can’t buy a house as a migrant with OIO as a non resident.

I personally like the move for quality applicants that are skilled and work in NZ and have helped Kiwis operate. But I’m sure skilled migrants now will want to purchase as well.

[winner69]

I just have to share this again - my morbid fascination with numbers, trends and weird relativities continues - some say bring in the man in the white coat to see what's wrong me with

Another month and again SUM share price outperforms the OCA share price.... to the point where never before (since OCA listed) as the OCA share price as a % of SUM share price been so low

Market must have some reasons why I loves SUM heaps more than OCA

Logically the line can't continue forever - ie until OCA goes to zero.

I have both SUM and OCA - heaps more SUM than OCA. Apparently this OCA is past the point of inflection, has a great business model, is on the verge of greatness and is very cheap. I sort of believe that and plan to move some SUM to OCA but while this trend continues why bother.

So in some respects the chart is some form of crude combined FA / TA analysis which might signal when I should start reweighting holdings in this sector. Cool eh


OCA done OK since listing - up 78% or 14%pa but SUM up 192% or 27% in same time

[Shareguy]

I agree winner69. OCA shows a lot of promise but at the end of the day it is a smaller business than market leader RYM followed by SUM. The premium is justified in my opinion for both of these companies with SUM edging ahead based on growth and premiums achieved in last few years. I have been a long term invester in all 3. OCA has a high proportion of aged care which is less profitable but also gives diversified incomes streams.

[Rawz]

I just have to share this again - my morbid fascination with numbers, trends and weird relativities continues - some say bring in the man in the white coat to see what's wrong me with

Another month and again SUM share price outperforms the OCA share price.... to the point where never before (since OCA listed) as the OCA share price as a % of SUM share price been so low

Market must have some reasons why I loves SUM heaps more than OCA

Logically the line can't continue forever - ie until OCA goes to zero.

I have both SUM and OCA - heaps more SUM than OCA. Apparently this OCA is past the point of inflection, has a great business model, is on the verge of greatness and is very cheap. I sort of believe that and plan to move some SUM to OCA but while this trend continues why bother.

So in some respects the chart is some form of crude combined FA / TA analysis which might signal when I should start reweighting holdings in this sector. Cool eh


OCA done OK since listing - up 78% or 14%pa but SUM up 192% or 27% in same time

Hey W69. Love your work. Very generous to share your data with the plebs.

By chance have you measured how much is just market re-rate? SUM just trading on better and better multiples.. And OCA trading on less maybe?

Don't suppose you have OCA NTA as a % of SUM NTA over the years?

[Ggcc]

And OCA keeps getting cheaper…….. maybe wait a bit longer and people can buy at $1.40

[Beau]

And OCA keeps getting cheaper…….. maybe wait a bit longer and people can buy at $1.40

Better get in quick from what I have read apparently is past the point of inflection and very cheap.

[winner69]

Hey W69. Love your work. Very generous to share your data with the plebs.

By chance have you measured how much is just market re-rate? SUM just trading on better and better multiples.. And OCA trading on less maybe?

Don't suppose you have OCA NTA as a % of SUM NTA over the years?

The table gives you some indication

Gap based on stronger financial performance (increase net assets). Both have been slightly re-rated upwards over the years with SUM P/B now 2.2 v OCA 1.3

[Rawz]

The table gives you some indication

Gap based on stronger financial performance (increase net assets). Both have been slightly re-rated upwards over the years with SUM P/B now 2.2 v OCA 1.3

Looks like 2021 is the year the OCA ship starts to turn around? OCA NTA as a % of SUM nta starts to increase in 2021, previous 4 years it decreased.

Maybe this inflection point talk is true? If FY22 NTA grows quicker again then maybe OCA will be on its journey to 2x nta valuation like SUM

[Dlownz]

OCA is ready for its next run. I'm expecting a 20% slow gain before a small retracment of 5 to 10%. Signs everywhere this company is past the point now. Just outside forces slowing down the move.

[Poet]

Interesting article in NBR

https://nbr.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ba70e1968fc317870f33501d9&id=f3420174ec&e=ed8d49c762

Paywalled but one paragraph in particular struck me

This is Andrew Barclay Head of Goldman Sach - advisers to EQT talking

“A lot of people would have looked at [Metlifecare] and said, ‘Oh, well, that was obvious to anyone’, but actually putting strategies together for how you buy the first thing, and what's the second thing you buy, and the third thing, it all takes a lot of time and a lot of thought.”

[Beagle]

$2.50 and they can have all mine...but Maverick may hold out for $3.

[Waltzing]

Where is it going to be in 10 years with the much talked about shortage in retirement facilities?

[Beagle]

Where is it going to be in 10 years with the much talked about shortage in retirement facilities?

$6. If they grow earnings at 15% per annum every 5 years the share price should double.

[justakiwi]

That would make me very ​happy :t_up:


$6. If they grow earnings at 15% per annum every 5 years the share price should double.

[BlackPeter]

$6. If they grow earnings at 15% per annum every 5 years the share price should double.


That would make me very ​happy :t_up:

Obviously - we don't know how much $6 will buy in 10 years, they say stagflation has arrived.

Anyway - probably nevertheless one of the better investment options (discl: holding lots).

[Waltzing]

Mr B "6"

well., diversify and hold for the long term then.

Recently we sold AUS tourism only to have to buy back in 2 weeks ago as AUS market ignored delta...

And there is the lesson..The market is going to look through the virus as new modified vaccines and treatments arrive over the next 5 years.

NZ failed to do an expensive Dubrovnik and now it plan your own defense.

These retirement villages are sitting ducks until vaccines kill off transmission which they currently dont do 100 percent.

[bottomfeeder]

Mr B "6"

well., diversify and hold for the long term then.

Recently we sold AUS tourism only to have to buy back in 2 weeks ago as AUS market ignored delta...

And there is the lesson..The market is going to look through the virus as new modified vaccines and treatments arrive over the next 5 years.

NZ failed to do an expensive Dubrovnik and now it plan your own defense.

These retirement villages are sitting ducks until vaccines kill off transmission which they currently dont do 100 percent.

Somebody is selling, but from experience, I know that alternatives to retirement villages and in particular, high care units, are few and far between. Kids lead too busy lives, and the houses they own are far too inadequate to house an elderly dependent relative. And even if they could, the care required for an aging increasingly health concerned relatives is far too onerous to consider. We may get some fluctuations in the SP, in the short term, but when it does go up it will be fast. Let us not forget they have locked in a relatively low interest loan, for a considerable period, to enable them to operate in a higher interest rate environment. Not sure how low they will go, but has to be a good long term holding.

[Ggcc]

And OCA keeps getting cheaper…….. maybe wait a bit longer and people can buy at $1.40
I said it before and I’ll say it again

[RTM]

Mr B "6"

well., diversify and hold for the long term then.

Recently we sold AUS tourism only to have to buy back in 2 weeks ago as AUS market ignored delta...

And there is the lesson..The market is going to look through the virus as new modified vaccines and treatments arrive over the next 5 years.

NZ failed to do an expensive Dubrovnik and now it plan your own defense.

These retirement villages are sitting ducks until vaccines kill off transmission which they currently dont do 100 percent.

Yes...there is real risk in this sector...I am pleased to have halved my exposure a few months ago. But still hold a decent sized holding in SUM and OCA. The risks as I see it:
a) Covid 19. With the best will in the world...it will get into some of the villages.
b) Real Estate Prices....which could be impacted by a)
c) Regulatory Exposure....esp if Lab get a third term.
Probably others. Happy holder with reduced exposure and a nice profit reinvested elsewhere.

[Waltzing]

"houses they own are far too inadequate to house an elderly dependent relative."

yes and holding SUM of this sector is a good idea.

Its plan your own defence now..

The mood from an national editor in an email this morning said it all...they had realised the game was up..would have cost billions to keep it out and that would have needed to be invested last may 2021.

Europe will be open next July August in a big way if delta hasnt morphed again.

[justakiwi]

It may, but residents are significantly better protected from covid, than they would be living out in the community. Aged care providers take huge precautions, even when national levels are reduced. We are at Level 2 here in the South Island, but our rest home is operating somewhere between Level 2 and 3. Staff and visitors must wear masks at all times. Visitors are by appointment only, must sign in, use hand sanitiser, and can only visit in the resident's room. All but three of our residents are fully vaccinated. Any resident with cold symptoms is isolated to the room and must have a negative covid test before coming out. Staff with cold symptoms must stay home until they have had a negative test.

If I were an elderly person right now, I would feel far safer living in an OCA facility than in my own home or living with family.


Yes...there is real risk in this sector...I am pleased to have halved my exposure a few months ago. But still hold a decent sized holding in SUM and OCA. The risks as I see it:
a) Covid 19. With the best will in the world...it will get into some of the villages.
b) Real Estate Prices....which could be impacted by a)
c) Regulatory Exposure....esp if Lab get a third term.
Probably others. Happy holder with reduced exposure and a nice profit reinvested elsewhere.

[850man]

It may, but residents are significantly better protected from covid, than they would be living out in the community. Aged care providers take huge precautions, even when national levels are reduced. We are at Level 2 here in the South Island, but our rest home is operating somewhere between Level 2 and 3. Staff and visitors must wear masks at all times. Visitors are by appointment only, must sign in, use hand sanitiser, and can only visit in the resident's room. All but three of our residents are fully vaccinated. Any resident with cold symptoms is isolated to the room and must have a negative covid test before coming out. Staff with cold symptoms must stay home until they have had a negative test.

If I were an elderly person right now, I would feel far safer living in an OCA facility than in my own home or living with family.

Makes facilities like OCA all the more compelling for the elderly and let's face it, covid is well and truly here to stay for some years yet despite what we hear from the throne.

[maclir]

It may, but residents are significantly better protected from covid, than they would be living out in the community. Aged care providers take huge precautions, even when national levels are reduced. We are at Level 2 here in the South Island, but our rest home is operating somewhere between Level 2 and 3. Staff and visitors must wear masks at all times. Visitors are by appointment only, must sign in, use hand sanitiser, and can only visit in the resident's room. All but three of our residents are fully vaccinated. Any resident with cold symptoms is isolated to the room and must have a negative covid test before coming out. Staff with cold symptoms must stay home until they have had a negative test.

If I were an elderly person right now, I would feel far safer living in an OCA facility than in my own home or living with family.

Same with my mum here in Wellington.

[Rawz]

Sheesh OCA taking a hammering. I've been buying the dip as they say you should do.. however the dip keeps dipping!

Looking at the OCA chart ASB provides. Blue SP line looks to have dropped below Red 180MA line. My understanding is thats not good.

[BlackPeter]

Sheesh OCA taking a hammering. I've been buying the dip as they say you should do.. however the dip keeps dipping!

Looking at the OCA chart ASB provides. Blue SP line looks to have dropped below Red 180MA line. My understanding is thats not good.

Jeez - SP is still above MA200 and appears to even bounce back upwards. But of course it will (as any other stock) keep jittering with whatever the international markets do.

MA180 means little to most people, but whatever indicator you choose - you need to give markets a second (or minute, or hour, or day) to sort themselves out before you get jittery. They call this "confirmation of indicator". If you don't it is just the broker who makes the money ... same as in the casino - the bank wins always :);

No need to get excited - yet.

Still better - just imagine the SP in 10 years from now, smile and go for a walk ...

[Beau]

It may, but residents are significantly better protected from covid, than they would be living out in the community. Aged care providers take huge precautions, even when national levels are reduced. We are at Level 2 here in the South Island, but our rest home is operating somewhere between Level 2 and 3. Staff and visitors must wear masks at all times. Visitors are by appointment only, must sign in, use hand sanitiser, and can only visit in the resident's room. All but three of our residents are fully vaccinated. Any resident with cold symptoms is isolated to the room and must have a negative covid test before coming out. Staff with cold symptoms must stay home until they have had a negative test.

If I were an elderly person right now, I would feel far safer living in an OCA facility than in my own home or living with family.

Monday 04 October, 2021

Dear residents and family members,

One more week at Level 2 over and done with.

Let’s keep doing what we’ve been doing to support our friends in Auckland and the Waikato.

Thanks to everyone for following the rules, wearing those masks and keeping your distance – your hard work is paying off.

This week we’ve got some more great speakers lined up for you, with art, exercise and ancestry on the agenda.

Importantly, and in response to the ongoing presence of Delta in the community, we have made a change to visitation arrangements for our residents who are in care.

Please see the details below and contact your Village Manager if you have any questions or concerns.


Arrangements for non-vaccinated visitors to our care residents
At Alert Level 2, we have re-opened our village care centres for visit, but you would have noticed some extra precautionary measures.

As each week passes with the Delta variant in the community, we continue to actively look for ways to ensure we are keeping our residents safe. With this in mind, and out of an abundance of caution, we are now requiring anyone who is unvaccinated who wishes to visit their loved ones in our care centres to contact the Village Manager so a suitable COVID-safe visit can be arranged.

This will include:


The visit occurring in a dedicated and separate space outside of the care centre
Our team providing full PPE for the visitor to wear
Shortened visits only, and
Our team cleaning the visiting area between visits.

We also respectfully request that people do not bring in under 12s to the care centre until we start to see the number of vaccinations in the general population increase.

If you are visiting a resident in palliative care, we will work with you to allow this to happen. Once again, please talk to the Village Manager.

Please be aware that you may be asked for evidence of vaccination when making your entry declaration.

This is a high risk time for us while we wait for better vaccination rates in the community but we want to assure you that we will make every effort to provide a COVID-safe visit while we continue to look for ways to keep our residents safe.

Otherwise, for anyone who is vaccinated who wishes to visit a resident in care, the process remains unchanged. This includes having a temperature check and wearing a mask, with visits limited to two people at a time.

Visitors to our serviced apartment residents are also required to check in, have a temperature check and wear a mask.

This is because our serviced apartments are positioned close to our care centres and many serviced apartment residents receive care services from our team.

Rymans new COVID update / New requirements for non-vaccinated visitors.

[justakiwi]

Yep, safest place to be right now. That's an excellent letter. Very impressed.


Monday 04 October, 2021

Dear residents and family members,

One more week at Level 2 over and done with.

Let’s keep doing what we’ve been doing to support our friends in Auckland and the Waikato.

Thanks to everyone for following the rules, wearing those masks and keeping your distance – your hard work is paying off.

This week we’ve got some more great speakers lined up for you, with art, exercise and ancestry on the agenda.

Importantly, and in response to the ongoing presence of Delta in the community, we have made a change to visitation arrangements for our residents who are in care.

Please see the details below and contact your Village Manager if you have any questions or concerns.


Arrangements for non-vaccinated visitors to our care residents
At Alert Level 2, we have re-opened our village care centres for visit, but you would have noticed some extra precautionary measures.

As each week passes with the Delta variant in the community, we continue to actively look for ways to ensure we are keeping our residents safe. With this in mind, and out of an abundance of caution, we are now requiring anyone who is unvaccinated who wishes to visit their loved ones in our care centres to contact the Village Manager so a suitable COVID-safe visit can be arranged.

This will include:


The visit occurring in a dedicated and separate space outside of the care centre
Our team providing full PPE for the visitor to wear
Shortened visits only, and
Our team cleaning the visiting area between visits.

We also respectfully request that people do not bring in under 12s to the care centre until we start to see the number of vaccinations in the general population increase.

If you are visiting a resident in palliative care, we will work with you to allow this to happen. Once again, please talk to the Village Manager.

Please be aware that you may be asked for evidence of vaccination when making your entry declaration.

This is a high risk time for us while we wait for better vaccination rates in the community but we want to assure you that we will make every effort to provide a COVID-safe visit while we continue to look for ways to keep our residents safe.

Otherwise, for anyone who is vaccinated who wishes to visit a resident in care, the process remains unchanged. This includes having a temperature check and wearing a mask, with visits limited to two people at a time.

Visitors to our serviced apartment residents are also required to check in, have a temperature check and wear a mask.

This is because our serviced apartments are positioned close to our care centres and many serviced apartment residents receive care services from our team.

Rymans new COVID update / New requirements for non-vaccinated visitors.

[Beau]

Yep, safest place to be right now. That's an excellent letter. Very impressed.

Yes and surely all Retirement Villages to follow suit or in process.

[850man]

Sheesh OCA taking a hammering. I've been buying the dip as they say you should do.. however the dip keeps dipping!

Looking at the OCA chart ASB provides. Blue SP line looks to have dropped below Red 180MA line. My understanding is thats not good.

No doubt some selling still ongoing by those departed (Stockton and Gasparich), they had millions of shares. Likely to keep the price depressed until it's all done

[Rawz]

Jeez - SP is still above MA200 and appears to even bounce back upwards. But of course it will (as any other stock) keep jittering with whatever the international markets do.

MA180 means little to most people, but whatever indicator you choose - you need to give markets a second (or minute, or hour, or day) to sort themselves out before you get jittery. They call this "confirmation of indicator". If you don't it is just the broker who makes the money ... same as in the casino - the bank wins always :);

No need to get excited - yet.

Still better - just imagine the SP in 10 years from now, smile and go for a walk ...

Can always rely on wise words from BP, time for that walk.

BTW- i have no idea why ASB gives MA90 and MA180 instead of MA100 and MA200. Weird.

[winner69]

Can always rely on wise words from BP, time for that walk.

BTW- i have no idea why ASB gives MA90 and MA180 instead of MA100 and MA200. Weird.

'Wise words' depend on whether you are holding or not

[couta1]

Monday 04 October, 2021

Dear residents and family members,

One more week at Level 2 over and done with.

Let’s keep doing what we’ve been doing to support our friends in Auckland and the Waikato.

Thanks to everyone for following the rules, wearing those masks and keeping your distance – your hard work is paying off.

This week we’ve got some more great speakers lined up for you, with art, exercise and ancestry on the agenda.

Importantly, and in response to the ongoing presence of Delta in the community, we have made a change to visitation arrangements for our residents who are in care.

Please see the details below and contact your Village Manager if you have any questions or concerns.


Arrangements for non-vaccinated visitors to our care residents
At Alert Level 2, we have re-opened our village care centres for visit, but you would have noticed some extra precautionary measures.

As each week passes with the Delta variant in the community, we continue to actively look for ways to ensure we are keeping our residents safe. With this in mind, and out of an abundance of caution, we are now requiring anyone who is unvaccinated who wishes to visit their loved ones in our care centres to contact the Village Manager so a suitable COVID-safe visit can be arranged.

This will include:


The visit occurring in a dedicated and separate space outside of the care centre
Our team providing full PPE for the visitor to wear
Shortened visits only, and
Our team cleaning the visiting area between visits.

We also respectfully request that people do not bring in under 12s to the care centre until we start to see the number of vaccinations in the general population increase.

If you are visiting a resident in palliative care, we will work with you to allow this to happen. Once again, please talk to the Village Manager.

Please be aware that you may be asked for evidence of vaccination when making your entry declaration.

This is a high risk time for us while we wait for better vaccination rates in the community but we want to assure you that we will make every effort to provide a COVID-safe visit while we continue to look for ways to keep our residents safe.

Otherwise, for anyone who is vaccinated who wishes to visit a resident in care, the process remains unchanged. This includes having a temperature check and wearing a mask, with visits limited to two people at a time.

Visitors to our serviced apartment residents are also required to check in, have a temperature check and wear a mask.

This is because our serviced apartments are positioned close to our care centres and many serviced apartment residents receive care services from our team.

Rymans new COVID update / New requirements for non-vaccinated visitors. Fortunately I stopped being a contractor to RYM homes a few yrs ago, another private home rung me up this morning asking when I was coming as I haven't been for 3 months, I asked what their requirements were and the unit manager said to see each resident in their in own room and handwashing after each one, I said that's standard practice anyway so see you tomorrow. Lol

[Beagle]

Still better - just imagine the SP in 10 years from now, smile and go for a walk ...

Predicting some things about the future, (your signature line) are actually quite easy and almost a dead certainty.
1. The share price in 10 years will be dramatically higher than it is today.
2. The share price will bounce around a bit and be up and down on a daily basis and it is best not to worry about this
3. The sun will come up tomorrow
4. If the Beagle doesn't have regular walks he will be more stressed and much unhealthier and fatter and a fat and unfit dog is not a happy dog ;)

[justakiwi]

So you think the Ryman approach is overkill?


Fortunately I stopped being a contractor to RYM homes a few yrs ago, another private home rung me up this morning asking when I was coming as I haven't been for 3 months, I asked what their requirements were and the unit manager said to see each resident in their in own room and handwashing after each one, I said that's standard practice anyway so see you tomorrow. Lol

[couta1]

So you think the Ryman approach is overkill? For sure and environmentally wasteful to boot with all that PPE which is unnecessary IMO.

[RTM]

And I really hope that all works out JustaKiwi. But I also look at our current outbreak, I guess it came from our MIQ facilities (still not identified ? Can't recall ) These facilities supposedly well managed. And of course then we have people and compliance and becoming to familiar with all the rules after working with them for a while....well...I am not at all confident the industry will be able to avoid it..even with great controls and people. Happy with my 50% sized holding. Good luck,


It may, but residents are significantly better protected from covid, than they would be living out in the community. Aged care providers take huge precautions, even when national levels are reduced. We are at Level 2 here in the South Island, but our rest home is operating somewhere between Level 2 and 3. Staff and visitors must wear masks at all times. Visitors are by appointment only, must sign in, use hand sanitiser, and can only visit in the resident's room. All but three of our residents are fully vaccinated. Any resident with cold symptoms is isolated to the room and must have a negative covid test before coming out. Staff with cold symptoms must stay home until they have had a negative test.

If I were an elderly person right now, I would feel far safer living in an OCA facility than in my own home or living with family.

[Waltzing]

"PPE which is unnecessary"

a science degree friend and health practitioner thought that ...

caught a plane to Thailand, feudal kingdom.... never returned and is still waiting.. his practise closed...

I thought at the time "dont board that plane" but as a health professional and he thought he knew best and i thought he was rolling the dice.

A dutch sport doctor while in rotterdam, said to me "boarders could close" and "its a flue we dont know much about"

I thought hang on, "little flue" , "borders could close" and it was then something in the back of my mind went "get out", walk dont run...

Overkill? id say patients will still be a little nervous.

[Curly]

Mkt has been severe on OCA. ARV still holding at $2.13. A .69c difference between the two stocks. Only . 20c used to seperate them not that long ago. OCA cheap. Been waiting for the OCA surge to $2 but the reverse is happening.

[Beagle]

9 months into 2021 and its not doing too well as an inflation hedge. Inflation at decade high of 3.3% per annum and OCA closed today at $1.44, 1 cent lower than it started the year at $1.45. Thankfully a small dividend was paid so in dividend adjusted terms it might just about be keeping pace with inflation. Rating C- and comment from the Dog. Must try harder.

I guess we get to see the report card next month. After wading through endless self congratulatory rhetoric about how they managed to keep Covid out of their facilities and all residents and staff were well looked after...one wonders what the numbers will look like. Maybe 2021 is not to be OCA's year ?...time will tell.

[couta1]

Mkt has been severe on OCA. ARV still holding at $2.13. A .69c difference between the two stocks. Only . 20c used to seperate them not that long ago. OCA cheap. Been waiting for the OCA surge to $2 but the reverse is happening. Patience with this one, if I didn't have a lot of money in PAZ it would be here (My wife holds quite a few) Take a lesson from SUM when it stagnated around the $3 mark and take a look at it now, this is a classic spray and walk away type investment.

[dompf]

Patience with this one, if I didn't have a lot of money in PAZ it would be here (My wife holds quite a few) Take a lesson from SUM when it stagnated around the $3 mark and take a look at it now, this is a classic spray and walk away type investment.

Im accumulating. Anything in the 1.4's is a steal long term.

This is one of my favourites in my portfolio but its actually behind every other stock that i hold. Ive got a TD coming up next month and if this is still in the 1.40's or even 1.30's im going to get a bigger position.

[fiasco]

Accumulating, been a while! Love this company

[Baa_Baa]

Im accumulating. Anything in the 1.4's is a steal long term.

This is one of my favourites in my portfolio but its actually behind every other stock that i hold. Ive got a TD coming up next month and if this is still in the 1.40's or even 1.30's im going to get a bigger position.

I would need counselling if I bought any more OCA, from a balanced portfolio perspective. Mmuuhahahahahaaaahhaha!

If there's a cure discovered for old age, I'm really up sh1t creek.
:mellow:

[Waltzing]

only go over weight if you have information that is factual and supports your convictions.


Chart looks a buy with support levels at 1.30-35.

[sb9]

only go over weight if you have information that is factual and supports your convictions.


Chart looks a buy with support levels at 1.30-35.

Looks to be heading sub 1.40 in the short term

[Onion]

Looks to be heading sub 1.40 in the short term

Are you people deliberately trying to upset me?

I only want to read positive OCA stories. More of the $2 by Christmas variety please.

[Rawz]

Are you people deliberately trying to upset me?

I only want to read positive OCA stories. More of the $2 by Christmas variety please.

Sometimes the glorious share market in all its wisdom offers up a gift. Happened not so long ago on EBO dropping to $30 before pushing to $35 real quick. It was discussed as a gift then. Easy 15% gain for those that bought.

I believe OCA is a gift now and easy 15% short term gain on the table.

[fiasco]

Back on board been a few years away, have always loved OCA's value proposition.

[850man]

Sometimes the glorious share market in all its wisdom offers up a gift. Happened not so long ago on EBO dropping to $30 before pushing to $35 real quick. It was discussed as a gift then. Easy 15% gain for those that bought.

I believe OCA is a gift now and easy 15% short term gain on the table.

Keen to know what underpins your "gift and 15% short term gain" please. The market seems a bit dark on OCA compared to the others.

[Rawz]

Keen to know what underpins your "gift and 15% short term gain" please. The market seems a bit dark on OCA compared to the others.

I see it back at $1.60 soon

[Beagle]

I bought a few more today.

[Waltzing]

"Are you people deliberately trying to upset me?"

if your not overweight in the sector it might be worth buying a few more.

Some people think its a bargain right here.

1.30 might be hard to get as they garden borrows will line up along with dump trucks and have to be quick.

Put some orders in now just in case something silly happens in the markets like US fails to lift debt ceiling.

[alokdhir]

When is its Results date ? No such info on NZX website ... Must be in Oct end or Nov ?

[777]

When is its Results date ? No such info on NZX website ... Must be in Oct end or Nov ?

January....Last years notice

Oceania Healthcare Limited will announce its half year results for the period
to 30 November 2020 on the morning of Friday 22 January 2021.

[alokdhir]

January....Last years notice

Oceania Healthcare Limited will announce its half year results for the period
to 30 November 2020 on the morning of Friday 22 January 2021.

Now they changed to 31st March ending ...so 6 monthly results to 30th Sept should be in Oct / Nov ....I reckon ...but could not find the exact date on NZX site

[bull....]

Looks to be heading sub 1.40 in the short term

yep sitting right on the 200d ma , break down will send it to last support at 1.30 again. fundamental headwinds with the rbnz raising rates means valuations on this are declining. like i said way back 1 before 2 lol

[Beagle]

Doggy's keen for lots more right on NTA. The fact is there are VERY few real value opportunities on the NZX so we NEED something to really get our teeth into !

[baaantom]

Doggy's keen for lots more right on NTA. The fact is there are VERY few real value opportunities on the NZX so we NEED something to really get our teeth into !

Thoughts on where NTA might be at the moment? $1.30-$1.40?

[Baa_Baa]

Thoughts on where NTA might be at the moment? $1.30-$1.40?

$1.20 according to NZX and ASB Sec

[winner69]

$1.20 according to NZX and ASB Sec


NAV (real value) was $1.28 share as at March ……six months on about $1.38 by my sums

So share price $1,45 really really CHEAP

Market continues to not like Oceania …..the gunna company past its inflection point

[RTM]

NAV (real value) was $1.28 share as at March ……six months on about $1.38 by my sums

So share price $1,45 really really CHEAP

Market continues to not like Oceania …..the gunna company past its inflection point

I have this vague idea Winner, that I recall a post from you that said we would never see $1.50 again...or something like that...in quite an authoritive manner. Do you recall that ?

[winner69]

I have this vague idea Winner, that I recall a post from you that said we would never see $1.50 again...or something like that...in quite an authoritive manner. Do you recall that ?


Yes I did

Market not being nice to OCA ….treating a gunna be great company like it doesn’t believe the story.

How many can be so wrong

Maybe it’s disliked so much we’ll never see 150 again :scared: lol

[Waltzing]

You know the tune winner(n)

Its NPAT , NPAT ,NPAT ..

[850man]

$1.20 according to NZX and ASB Sec

Back in the day MET went below NTA.... are we watching MET mk 2 unfolding?

[Waltzing]

"MET mk 2"

the number of times stock sell off before hitting its numbers or a market moving event occurs and a perfectly rational decision was made to sell.

Something is making the horses nervous.

[Beagle]

Coming up to half year reporting date next month...maybe the company can't find any new greenfield opportunities and just buys its own shares back and mops up some of the keen sellers ?

[winner69]

Coming up to half year reporting date next month...maybe the company can't find any new greenfield opportunities and just buys its own shares back and mops up some of the keen sellers ?

Share buy back would be an admission of failure

[Curly]

Compared to other Health Care providers OCA is currently about .40c under valued in my view. Deluded covid mania seems to be adversely affecting share price.

[Beagle]

Share buy back would be an admission of failure

This is the standout dog of my portfolio in 2021. Shares have gone backwards after starting the year at $1.45 we are now underwater for 2021 and going nowhere....I feel a song coming on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFgayzZ5KTM

2021 the year OCA bounces up and down and every day feels like groundhog day...watching grass grow would be more exciting !

Suppose I have to hang in there and grind it out.

[winner69]

Compared to other Health Care providers OCA is currently about .40c under valued in my view. Deluded covid mania seems to be adversely affecting share price.

Wouldn't 'deluded covid mania' affect all sector stocks, not just OCA

Must be something else stopping it being 1.81

[Rawz]

What’s up with this thread? So bearish.

Nothing has changed. No negative announcement.

Just buy more and hold for long term.

[Beagle]

What’s up with this thread? So bearish.

Nothing has changed. No negative announcement.

Just buy more and hold for long term.

Its called venting your spleen. Must admit I am perplexed. All the analysts love it and the average target price is $1.71 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/ more than 21% north of the closing price today. Why isn't some big institution taking this by the scruff of the neck and buying it up ?

Beagle might have to simply play possum in the headlights for a while, (his most loathed game).

Come in Couta1...you know you want some at this bargain price, get into it mate !

[justakiwi]

My sentiments exactly. Analysts are rating it as a "buy" so they do not seem to be concerned about the share price. I'm more than happy to take advantage of the situation and drip feed in small orders as finances permit. I have faith in OCA.


What’s up with this thread? So bearish.

Nothing has changed. No negative announcement.

Just buy more and hold for long term.

[Greekwatchdog]

Its hard to fathom how this was trading at $1.32 Dec 31, 2020 with all the increase in housing over the last 18 months. Its up $0.09 cents in this period. I am left scratching my head if we have got this so wrong or there is just a big holder just selling. Still $100m in the bank from bond offer so we must be due some announcement soon on where they are spending. One thing I wish the board would approve is quarterly updates too market.

[Beagle]

Its hard to fathom how this was trading at $1.32 Dec 31, 2020 with all the increase in housing over the last 18 months. Its up $0.09 cents in this period. I am left scratching my head if we have got this so wrong or there is just a big holder just selling. Still $100m in the bank from bond offer so we must be due some announcement soon on where they are spending. One thing I wish the board would approve is quarterly updates too market.

Yeah, I couldn't agree more. 6 months is too long to wait. Arvida have quarterly investor news updates updating on a number things and SUM have quarterly sales data. OCA desperately need to lift their game on engagement with shareholders because the natives are getting restless.

[couta1]

Its called venting your spleen. Must admit I am perplexed. All the analysts love it and the average target price is $1.71 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/ more than 21% north of the closing price today. Why isn't some big institution taking this by the scruff of the neck and buying it up ?

Beagle might have to simply play possum in the headlights for a while, (his most loathed game).

Come in Couta1...you know you want some at this bargain price, get into it mate ! Yes your right i do want some (Actually I want a lot) but all my shares are in the red except PAZ and I don't want to sell any of them. Long game and a trance like state required for these and PAZ. Lol

[850man]

Its hard to fathom how this was trading at $1.32 Dec 31, 2020 with all the increase in housing over the last 18 months. Its up $0.09 cents in this period. I am left scratching my head if we have got this so wrong or there is just a big holder just selling. Still $100m in the bank from bond offer so we must be due some announcement soon on where they are spending. One thing I wish the board would approve is quarterly updates too market.
Gaspsrich and Stockton possibly the big holders continuing to sell

[Joh13]

A lot of selling pressure. I am expecting a disclosure notice very soon for Earl and or Mark, also surprised that OCA hasn't made an announcement about any acquisitions, considering they raised money through the bond issue quite quickly... Covid delay?

TA wise, I see that OCA is around 3.0 Standard deviations from the 150 day linear regression line and is also showing bullish regular divergence on the daily chart (CCI) and hitting the linear regression line for the weekly chart. I topped up a little more ($1.41), I see this as an overdone sell-off. Other operators haven't seen their SP move, so can only put it down too aggressive selling by the guys mentioned above, fundamentals haven't changed as far as we have been made aware.

Quarterly updates would be nice. As you mentioned in a post a while back Beagle, expect this year to be slow and painful with the SP and that it has been.

[Waltzing]

Been very wary of this stock from the first sets of published accounts and the chart just doesnt look right.

if the P&L required numerous break outs that require study and then questions back to the company accountants if starts to set off little bells.

And every set published after that changes it format, well.

If they are transparent great but they dont look it. Looks a mess.

[DonkeyKong]

Now they changed to 31st March ending ...so 6 monthly results to 30th Sept should be in Oct / Nov ....I reckon ...but could not find the exact date on NZX site

It will be by the 30th of November but nothing more specific than that has been announced as far as I know. See “Key Dates” in https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre

[Maverick]

I must say how rational and together everyone has been during this fall. ALL excellent posts and opinions guys.

Yes, it's all a bit of a mystery why the SP is currently so low. It's in the same market as the others, particularly ARV which it usually is lumped with, are doing just dandy. I'm going over my workings and can't see why OCA might turn in a poor report.

Its Care profit is very predictable and while not overly profitable in isolation, it is a stable income.
I've got the care profit at $13.5m (up 28% from PCP).

Village profit is the tricky one this period as they are predominantly selling down Nelson and Christchurch apartments. These are not that lucrative as far as new sales margin goes (when compared to Auckland) but will come into their own downstream as resales much later. This has been well signaled by OCA.
They did get Eden-Auckland delivered early this HY but Auckland's lockdown and winter will be dragging on that delivery`s new sales progress. This however will have time to shine in HY2. So these sales will be the big variable in this HY1.
Village profit will most likely be flat ( but higher prices and Eden sales just may surprise to the upside ) Whatever the lockdown effect is on HY1 we can assume will just transfer into HY2 so overall this the full year should still be up at least 20% YOY at $60m.( analysts are saying around about the same thing too)I have had to make no changes to my workings for this FY.
I also maintain mid next year at a PE20 expectations of the SP is still $1.90

So while I am still unwavering on the fundamental value of OCA I do find the current market trading activity surprising but also fascinating.
For several weeks now the average “buy” order sizes are tiny, around 1,500-3,000 per parcel ( most unusual - is it just Sharesies orders making it to market?) While the average “sells” lined up are the usual amounts on average around at least 15,000 .
This tells me a big seller/s have got off market “sell” orders sitting on the desks at the broking houses that are being satisfied “off market” by any semi decent sell order that comes in and gets hoovered up at a broker's desk before going to market - thus avoiding NZX fees. Notice the big regular daily off market trades happening. This has the effect of frustrated sellers having to accept whatever they can get on market from the tiny “buy” nibbles on the NZX platform. Even a few sell orders quickly overwhelms any small buyers causing constant downward pressure.

We have seen this behavior a few times before but usually only last about a week. This time its 2 weeks and counting so it must be a big order. Logically at some point this big order will complete and normal “buys”' will make it to market again and then all functioning efficiently once again. IMO the share price will rise rapidly at this time.

But despite my pointless little theory, it is still essentially a big seller/s however the process is being executed.

We can see from all the many clues amongst its peers that industry wide things are going gangbusters. All NZ results on any measure are stronger than ever.

I have studied to great depth all aspects of this company and when broken down to small parts it's very logical and predictable. Other than one of its new acquisitions sitting on a pile of asbestos I personally don't fear OCA has some dark secret and someone else knows something that we don't. (Greg T doesn't seem worried either).

Whatever happens over the next month ,on late November results day, I'm expecting to see it in the early $1.60s

[Waltzing]

sorting this stock out is almost a full time job and from MR M posts it must be his near full time occupation.

Almost need a development magazine of their own as these retirement villages become bigger and bigger.

[Maverick]

sorting this stock out is almost a full time job and from MR M posts it must be his near full time occupation.

Waltz, you hit the nail on the head, it is. Its taken me 3 years to get it dailed in.

it's only fair to share some of that hard work as my contribution in exchange for the many excellent posters on Sharetrader offering their own expertise and opinions.

[Beau]

Thanks Maverick for putting in the time again. As you put it certainly is a mystery having purchased Oceania and Arvida shares at the same time some time ago and both working on similar models just can’t see why there is such a vast difference in gain in share price. Have noted there has been big orders off market and someone constantly feeding for sale side and lots of buyers on small amounts. Having purchased a couple of top ups myself I’m amazed that purchases aren’t in droves, there isn’t much else on market at present at a reasonable price. If Greg T doesn’t seem worried that’s peace of mind that man knows his stuff only have to look at his background. Thanks again Maverick.

[winner69]

Doggy's keen for lots more right on NTA. The fact is there are VERY few real value opportunities on the NZX so we NEED something to really get our teeth into !

My mate Richard says ‘value is a scarcity. That’s not surprising in a bubble environment, and history shows scarcities tend to outperform. ‘

[Bjauck]

....
For several weeks now the average “buy” order sizes are tiny, around 1,500-3,000 per parcel ( most unusual - is it just Sharesies orders making it to market?) While the average “sells” lined up are the usual amounts on average around at least 15,000 ....

It is good to read your post for a bit of perspective.

From the recent dividend payment from another company, I topped up yesterday with a purchase of 2,100 shares via Direct broking (satisfied by 3 transactions!). While not a large purchase I didn't think it was tiny...

However it is all relative :cool:

[justakiwi]

It's not tiny. Tiny is the three $20 orders I've place this week :laugh:



It is good to read your post for a bit of perspective.

From the recent dividend payment from another company, I topped up yesterday with a purchase of 2,100 shares via Direct broking. While not a large purchase I didn't think it was tiny...

However it is all relative :cool:

[Waltzing]

An investor may go over weight on a stock if their research has the depth to match the percentage of their portfolio allocations.

No doubt about it MR M has but in the "Mahi".

[Waltzing]

" three $20 orders"

ok .......:confused:

[Bjauck]

It's not tiny. Tiny is the three $20 orders I've place this week :laugh: Thats the good thing about sharesies - that could become 3 tiny orders per week without penalising fees.

Yep Ironman, Maverick has put in the research and great detailed posts!

[thegreatestben]

Unsure if anyone has posted these before but quite cool to see pics of the flagship location.

https://www.argon.co.nz/portfolio-item/oceania-waimarie/

[alokdhir]

It will be by the 30th of November but nothing more specific than that has been announced as far as I know. See “Key Dates” in https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre

Thanks buddy :t_up:

[Bjauck]

Unsure if anyone has posted these before but quite cool to see pics of the flagship location.

https://www.argon.co.nz/portfolio-item/oceania-waimarie/ Thanks for that. Good to see recent photos of progress on the site. The main building certainly looks big for that area of St Heliers!

[winner69]

From marketscreener

SUM share price currently 1% higher than average target / ARV 5% lower and OCA 18% lower.

Guru analysts pretty clued up ..... seem about right with ARV and SUM but obviously totally optimistic and had their judgement clouded by the hype generated

If they took their rose tinted glasses of they probably come up with something like $1.50 as a target and be in line reality (like with SUM and ARV)

don't we only believe 'consensus' average targets when we want to

[justakiwi]

Not everyone has buckets of cash sitting around ready to use when an opportunity arises like this one. If you have ever read anything I have posted, you know my situation. Sharesies made it possible for me to get back into investing, on a below average income. Not all my orders are this small, but if I have a spare $20 or $30, why would I not use it to buy additional shares?

Every dollar invested is a dollar working for me. My portfolio has grown from $2000 just over two years ago, to $22,000 today. I could never have achieved that without the ability to place small orders.




" three $20 orders"

ok .......:confused:

[couta1]

Not everyone has buckets of cash sitting around ready to use when an opportunity arises like this one. If you have ever read anything I have posted, you know my situation. Sharesies made it possible for me to get back into investing, on a below average income. Not all my orders are this small, but if I have a spare $20 or $30, why would I not use it to buy additional shares?

Every dollar invested is a dollar working for me. My portfolio has grown from $2000 just over two years ago, to $22,000 today. I could never have achieved that without the ability to place small orders. And sometimes small is better, after all if you want to make a small fortune in the share market then start with a large one. Lol

[Beagle]

From marketscreener

SUM share price currently 1% higher than average target / ARV 5% lower and OCA 18% lower.

Guru analysts pretty clued up ..... seem about right with ARV and SUM but obviously totally optimistic and had their judgement clouded by the hype generated

If they took their rose tinted glasses of they probably come up with something like $1.50 as a target and be in line reality (like with SUM and ARV)

don't we only believe 'consensus' average targets when we want to

Price relativity to NTA is a big factor to be considered here. Profit is driven off the back of property gains so bang for your buck buying really close to NTA seems like the best strategy to me. Mav tells us OCA are building more independent living apartments in the years ahead which I see as a good thing. Other operators are building more care suites...ironic wouldn't you say ?

[Mista_Trix]

Not everyone has buckets of cash sitting around ready to use when an opportunity arises like this one. If you have ever read anything I have posted, you know my situation. Sharesies made it possible for me to get back into investing, on a below average income. Not all my orders are this small, but if I have a spare $20 or $30, why would I not use it to buy additional shares?

Every dollar invested is a dollar working for me. My portfolio has grown from $2000 just over two years ago, to $22,000 today. I could never have achieved that without the ability to place small orders.

I buy in '$5' increments on 12 shares, every... single... day. I say '$5' as its higher or lower depending on the movement - more if its lower, less if its higher, as I'm value averaging in. Allows you to act like a bot to get a low average buy price (only takes 3 minutes a day to get all the trades done). I dont have a lump sum either (for this portfolio) - so invest slowly what you've got when you can. You'd get slaughtered in fees on any other platform.

I think the Sharesies type platforms are underrated with how many more strategies you can try.

[Waltzing]

average trade this morning is about vol 15000.

to make money on the platforms likes Direct you need to buy at the best rate.

bigger buying support starting to play in.

[winner69]

Price relativity to NTA is a big factor to be considered here.

Value is a scarcity.........history shows scarcities tend to outperform. ‘

[Beagle]

Value is a scarcity.........history shows scarcities tend to outperform. ‘

Yes. Premium to NTA of OCA as at 31/03/21 of $1.20 and not including work in progress on developments 8 cps and discount on unsold units about another 8 cps, so adjusted fair value NTA as at 31 March 2021 was about $1.36 and the real estate market has gone up very strongly since then so OCA trading right on, or very close too fair normalized value NTA at $1.41. On the other hand the closest is ARV at 46% premium to NTA, (will be a bit lower if you normalise it like for OCA) and SUM 2.1 x NTA and RYM 2.7 x NTA.

We know the real earnings with OCA is the net increase in NTA + dividends paid during the year ;)

[alokdhir]

Continuous supplier @ 1.42 .... in lots of 50,000

[jimdog31]

Continuous supplier @ 1.42 .... in lots of 50,000

Mark Stockton still had 1,700,000 shares not long ago, Earl 1,000,000 - I honestly think this is just overhang and they've both decided to sell.

Marks Linkedin mentions he resigns from his role to pursue other exciting opportunities - needs the money most likely.

[Shareguy]

I have just spoken to my broker who said that their well respected analyst is not so positive on Oceania and thinks that there is institutional selling due to the risks that he’s highlighted. Unlike Rym or Sum it’s a high care model (was nearly half) so real pressure on wages plus the added CVD costs. Also the risks of capital gain are to the downside with interest rates on the move. He thinks it will continue to go down in price.

[Baa_Baa]

Mark Stockton still had 1,700,000 shares not long ago, Earl 1,000,000 - I honestly think this is just overhang and they've both decided to sell.

Marks Linkedin mentions he resigns from his role to pursue other exciting opportunities - needs the money most likely.

You could well be right though it seems odd to me that they would sell by slowly drip feeding into the market, which has such low daily volume (relatively), when any reputable broker could find buyer(s) for a few million shares - only 0.38% of the total float.

[Muse]

Not everyone has buckets of cash sitting around ready to use when an opportunity arises like this one. If you have ever read anything I have posted, you know my situation. Sharesies made it possible for me to get back into investing, on a below average income. Not all my orders are this small, but if I have a spare $20 or $30, why would I not use it to buy additional shares?

Every dollar invested is a dollar working for me. My portfolio has grown from $2000 just over two years ago, to $22,000 today. I could never have achieved that without the ability to place small orders.

I say good on you! Small orders compound over time if fees kept in check (thanks to sharsies) and they keep you mentally engaged on the market and your investments. Kudos.

[bull....]

when delta infects the retirement villages and it will ( big risk factor ) , stocks in the sector will re-act downwards

In australia the latest outbreak has been led by unvaxed workers

Delta variant drives concerns about outbreaks at long-term care facilities

the unvaxed workers are spreading it rife

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/delta-variant-drives-concerns-about-outbreaks-long-term-care-facilities-n1275566


Retirement village operators have been advised that they cannot require staff to be vaccinated, unless the staff member occupies a “high risk” role

Some large villages require new employees to be vaccinated. Ryman Healthcare introduced that in April last year and Summerset Group also now requires that of new employees

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126537878/retirement-villages-advised-to-assess-staff-roles-for-high-risk-of-covid-to-residents


the market will re-act to the first signs of contagion in villages and in fact it already is with the sector not per-forming at all the last mth since the govt change of strategy from elimination to living with it






Officials in some states have begun sounding the alarm about outbreaks among long-term care facilities and nursing homes as delta variant fuels cases.

[justakiwi]

Deleted ..... letting it go

[whome]

Fair comment, bull. .. and investors live with the consequences. Vaccination for new employees only is dumb.

[Cricketfan]

Hopefully our government will mandate vaccinations for all aged-care workers. Seems stupid not to.

[Waltzing]

"He thinks it will continue to go down in price."

Mr M might have done more work on this than the insto's. Its a very difficult one to call unless you have very well developed models and you almost have to know every site developed and the speed of conversion.

Its so complex it almost like the PM's advise on visiting friend level 3 against Dr Blowfelds advise.

More scenarios then Einstein can model.

[alokdhir]

Situation is surely risky for the retirement villages then before thats why they giving u this opportunity SP ...Can go lower if it becomes more ugly or reality is more bad then whats built in current SP .

Investors at present need think ahead ...Will they come out only bruised or fully intact or badly hurt with current CVD situation in NZ ...other countries examples are showing that this will turn out to be minor blip and things will return to normal after we at NZ also get used to CVD around ...its new for us at the moment .

[Sideshow Bob]

Not everyone has buckets of cash sitting around ready to use when an opportunity arises like this one. If you have ever read anything I have posted, you know my situation. Sharesies made it possible for me to get back into investing, on a below average income. Not all my orders are this small, but if I have a spare $20 or $30, why would I not use it to buy additional shares?

Every dollar invested is a dollar working for me. My portfolio has grown from $2000 just over two years ago, to $22,000 today. I could never have achieved that without the ability to place small orders.

Fantastic post! :t_up: Well done JK.

It is all relative to each persons situation.

I have a small portion of my holdings through Sharsies, perhaps around 10-15%. Some of the companies I hold in Sharsies are the same as other holdings, but use it for bit of a play and follow companies with a XS holding that might have an eye on. Probably will also use it more for ASX/US holdings.

Also have it for my daughter, and while she doesn't have alot of interest in it currently, the money would be in the bank earning next-to-nothing. Some of the holdings and divvies are really quite small, but can re-invest cheaply and easily. Some have been as small as a couple of bucks.

Bought her another couple hundy dollars of OCA this morning as long term hold.

[winner69]

".

Its so complex it almost like the PM's advise on visiting friend level 3 against Dr Blowfelds advise.

More scenarios then Einstein can model.

And Hipkins clarified not allowed to go to friends toilet ……hope friends have plenty of bushes

[justakiwi]

There is always a risk that covid will get in. But as I have said before, the vast majority of residents and staff will already be fully vaccinated. Hopefully, that will reduce the risk of anyone who gets it, getting seriously ill. Yes, no doubt some will, but I am hopeful that most will not.

Secondly, also as I have said before, providers will continue to put restrictions in place as needed, regardless of what is happening outside in terms of levels. They will always err on the side of caution.

And finally, even if the worst scenario happens, the people living in these villages/care facilities, have nowhere else to go. This is their home. So, the likes of RYM, SUM and OCA will continue to exist. They provide an aged care service that is needed. We cannot do without them. So yes, there may be temporary "set backs" but in the long run, they will be fine.

JMHO for what its worth.



Situation is surely risky for the retirement villages then before thats why they giving u this opportunity SP ...Can go lower if it becomes more ugly or reality is more bad then whats built in current SP .

Investors at present need think ahead ...Will they come out only bruised or fully intact or badly hurt with current CVD situation in NZ ...other countries examples are showing that this will turn out to be minor blip and things will return to normal after we at NZ also get used to CVD around ...its new for us at the moment .

[alokdhir]

Short term down trend is showing ....wall of sellers @ 1.42 ....Will they try to break 140s ??

Shall we buy the dip ? Keeping adding in small lots ...all the way to what ? 1.30 or 1.20 ....Bull says $ 1.00 !!!! :scared:

[dabsman]

I buy in '$5' increments on 12 shares, every... single... day

What does that cost per day? I typically buy $10,000 blocks unless depth is a problem like BRM and MLN warrants and Harmoney etc. Bigger blocks lower fee per share

[Rawz]

What does that cost per day? I typically but $10,000 blocks unless depth is a problem like BRM and MLN warrants and Harmoney etc. Bigger blocks lower fee per share

Sharesies charge 0.5% of the amount being purchased. So when DCA'ing for us new investors its best to use sharesies but when buying over $6k worth best to use ASB.

[couta1]

Mark Stockton still had 1,700,000 shares not long ago, Earl 1,000,000 - I honestly think this is just overhang and they've both decided to sell.

Marks Linkedin mentions he resigns from his role to pursue other exciting opportunities - needs the money most likely. Not sure about that, about 5 mill shares have sold so far this week, I reckon there are other sellers at work here also.

[jimdog31]

Not sure about that, about 5 mill shares have sold so far this week, I reckon there are other sellers at work here also.

Yes - im not saying they are the only ones, but definitely contributing

[winner69]

I have just spoken to my broker who said that their well respected analyst is not so positive on Oceania and thinks that there is institutional selling due to the risks that he’s highlighted. Unlike Rym or Sum it’s a high care model (was nearly half) so real pressure on wages plus the added CVD costs. Also the risks of capital gain are to the downside with interest rates on the move. He thinks it will continue to go down in price.

Hope he’s not one of these ‘analysts’ that are setting up a big short

Like those evil ones who produce outrageous reports mentioning things like obscure financials hiding accounting discrepancies, overstating asset value, holding land that can’t be developed etc etc and other bad things that they can think up.

Target companies have seen share prices collapse on the back of these reports …..objective achieved by the author / analyst

[couta1]

Back on board and going long on this one, had to sell some power shares at a loss to do so but hey I'm used to that, it was just too tempting at these prices.

[Waltzing]

"already be fully vaccinated."

not so, new study out shows fully vaccinated for over 65 is 3 jabs not 2.

Applies to the PHIZZY juice!

OOOPS!!!!!

[justakiwi]

That figure is in relation to all people over 65 - not specifically people over 65 in aged care facilities. The vast majority of residents in OCA (and others) facilities have been fully vaccinated.



"already be fully vaccinated."

not so, new study out shows fully vaccinated for over 65 is 3 jabs not 2.

Applies to the PHIZZY juice!

OOOPS!!!!!

[dabsman]

Back on board and going long on this one, had to sell some power shares at a loss to do so but hey I'm used to that, it was just too tempting at these prices.

That certainly gives me some comfort. Welcome back. I'm not buying more at this point. I am way overweight in this and SUM from the stellar gains the last 18 months.

[alokdhir]

Back on board and going long on this one, had to sell some power shares at a loss to do so but hey I'm used to that, it was just too tempting at these prices.

Hopefully FPH holding is still intact ?

[couta1]

Hopefully FPH holding is still intact ? Yep leaving that one, utilities under pressure from interest rate rises which will be ongoing for some time.

[Beagle]

Back on board and going long on this one, had to sell some power shares at a loss to do so but hey I'm used to that, it was just too tempting at these prices.

Welcome back mate. Throw these in the bottom drawer for 10 years. Better still, transfer them over to Mrs Couta1 so you're not tempted to touch them.

[winner69]

Welcome back mate. Throw these in the bottom drawer for 10 years. Better still, transfer them over to Mrs Couta1 so you're not tempted to touch them.

Yep, $3 in 10 years will be good

[Waltzing]

"Yep, $3 in 10 years will be good"

if thats all SELL.

[couta1]

Welcome back mate. Throw these in the bottom drawer for 10 years. Better still, transfer them over to Mrs Couta1 so you're not tempted to touch them. Haha what an excellent idea, her avg price is about 80c.

[justakiwi]

Feel free to do so. More available for the rest of us - who are significantly more positive about the company than you clearly are.


"Yep, $3 in 10 years will be good"

if thats all SELL.

[Waltzing]

"positive about the company than you clearly are."

Mr M might be expecting more than 3 dollars in 10 years?

Mr B might also be expecting a little more?

If your looking for a slow growth company than 3 dollars in 10 years is a good return if your expecting stagflation for a long period. Oh thats Sri-Kumar!

Right now the DIV is what?

If their is a healthy cash surplus for the next DIV plus imputation credits then your in the money.

COMPANY->DIVRECEIVED = ?;

[alokdhir]

This is one stock all Bs are not together ...Mr B positive and has equal holding , Bull is super negative ...looking for $ 1 ...Balance not interested ...W69 seems negative ...not very clear with his intentions here . Couta is positive so Mr B and Mr C along with our best analyst Mav ...BP is also positive and holds lots as per his last disclosure .

Overall a mixed bag ...but I think its a safe bet in long and medium term too ... $ 1.65 by Nov end after results very possible . By then NZ will get used to CVD around too so will be less scared and more prepared :D

[Waltzing]

"BP is also positive and holds lots as per his last disclosure "

Mr P is missing ...

[alokdhir]

"BP is also positive and holds lots as per his last disclosure "

Mr P is missing ...

How about your intentions or views Mr W ?

[couta1]

How about your intentions or views Mr W ? Very difficult to fathom an enigma.

[couta1]

This is one stock all Bs are not together ...Mr B positive and has equal holding , Bull is super negative ...looking for $ 1 ...Balance not interested ...W69 seems negative ...not very clear with his intentions here . Couta is positive so Mr B and Mr C along with our best analyst Mav ...BP is also positive and holds lots as per his last disclosure .

Overall a mixed bag ...but I think its a safe bet in long and medium term too ... $ 1.65 by Nov end after results very possible . By then NZ will get used to CVD around too so will be less scared and more prepared :D When bull is super negative, you buy.

[Waltzing]

Well Mr C may we defer to Mr M.

After all he appears to have done as much or more work on this one as any insto and would be happy to attend his on line paid for webnar on the stock.

Mr M appears to know the exact location and progress on each site and any site he doesnt know about there might be a drone over head soon.

suggest we just refer to him as M.

[alokdhir]

Very difficult to fathom an enigma.

I think I found out where Mr W stands on OCA ...he prefers WHS to OCA ...thinks its better bet ...so that makes him negative on OCA ...:p

[bull....]

Back on board and going long on this one, had to sell some power shares at a loss to do so but hey I'm used to that, it was just too tempting at these prices.

:scared: couta back on board with all his talking lately of losing trades on stuff is this as good an indicator to get out ?

[alokdhir]

ohhh what have I done ...I made sleepy OCA thread like SKT one ...:eek2:

[couta1]

:scared: couta back on board with all his talking lately of losing trades on stuff is this as good an indicator to get out ? Mrs C knows this company better than anyone on here and she says buy and that ain't no bull. In fact if I had listened to Mrs C 10 yrs ago with SUM and RYM I wouldn't be posting on here now.

[Waltzing]

"negative on OCA "

I have no view at present and defer to M.

Based on the price the markets pays for a Net return on Equity assuming the capital has no cost except opportunity (remember your economics units) WHS is returning a high yield.

If the present WHS and OCA yields continue then MR B might move WHS from a HOLD to a BUY.

If Mrs C has insider information then your conviction on this stock might indeed be high.

For a company that main function is to service a demographic where BOWLS is the hottest sport on closed circuit TV and the LOUNGE goes WILD every friday morning tea time.

Have to say its a credit to the company it has the highest attention rate in the retirement sector on sharetrader.

[Panda-NZ-]

:scared: couta back on board with all his talking lately of losing trades on stuff is this as good an indicator to get out ?

The Spain model... build lots of apartments only to sell them below expectations.

[bull....]

Mrs C knows this company better than anyone on here and she says buy and that ain't no bull. In fact if I had listened to Mrs C 10 yrs ago with SUM and RYM I wouldn't be posting on here now.

how many millions do you need not to post on here ? lost 2 million on atm you say

[alokdhir]

"negative on OCA "

I have no view at present and defer to M.

Based on the price the markets pays for a Net return on Equity assuming the capital has no cost except opportunity (remember your economics units) WHS is returning a high yield.

If the yield continues then MR B might move WHS from a HOLD to a BUY.



If yield continues is the catch here ...Even upcoming divvy is conditional ...Mr B got out as he knows the outcomes of conditions ...like ATM gave in AGM 2020 ...full of conditions and we all know what happened in Dec 2020

WHS is getting these multiples for good reason . So u cant take conditional stand " If yield continues " ...then even I will switch all money to WHS as it will pay 10% back every year ...

[justakiwi]

That was out of line. Unacceptable :angry:


how many millions do you need not to post on here ? lost 2 million on atm you say

[bull....]

That was out of line. Unacceptable :angry:

no offence intended

[Waltzing]

"So u cant take conditional stand " If yield continues ""

amended statement.

Well afternoon tea and perhaps M could ask OCA what there Bowls attendance and zumba? number are doing.

A happy bunch of settlers in the villages will make for a successful company that will at least hopefully not lose much money.

[couta1]

how many millions do you need not to post on here ? lost 2 million on atm you say I never mentioned dollar amounts so why bring it up? I was just giving credit to my wife.

[Baa_Baa]

"So u cant take conditional stand " If yield continues ""

amended statement.


Almost 2000 posts and no reputation points. Ever wondered why?

[Waltzing]

"Almost 2000 posts and no reputation points. "

they are turned off.

check your general settings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_the_Courtier

[Panda-NZ-]

If you're not liked among a bunch of out-of-touch elites then you're doing something right.

Though WZ.. the grammar could be improved.

[Old mate]

Reading Waltzingironmansinlgesculs posts like doing a crossword. Mostly I find the crosswords easier:t_up:

[Waltzing]

GAMMA ..

i agree ..

but im busy with french conjugation.

now back to OCA.

M is the person with the numbers and therefore i suggest its a contest between the insto and M.

Was in Nelson recently and it was simply stunning.

Is MR P therefore Panda. If Mr Percy is P and Panda is PD.

[bull....]

i like wz posts they are good for keeping the brain active

[Waltzing]

think having both long and short views expressed is what investing is about isnt it.

[Panda-NZ-]

GAMMA ..

Was in Nelson recently and it was simply stunning.

Is MR P therefore Panda. If Mr Percy is P and Panda is PD.

How about cutting your name to just waltz :)

I'm averse to copy and pasting links given I have to remove hyperlinks.

[Waltzing]

Most of the day is spent debugging CPP written by experts that cant be understood; that processes transactions.

After 30 years of programming languages i dont even remember the english language.

Id Field length.

actually i was hoping they extend the field.

For those wondering why reputation is missing in action it's in your profile setting's.

Note: If you set a flag in a database it doesnt mean its going to be accessed by software every time an API runs.

Thats why on FB your data setting might get bypassed if an rest API is bypassed ; should never happen of course. But how else did all that data get into cambridge ATL hands.

[Joshuatree]

hear hear would appreciate it too

[Panda-NZ-]

After 30 years of programming languages i dont even remember the english language.

Simply dump it into grammarly then paste it here.

Automate your life using your computer skills.

[pierre]

Reading Waltzingironmansinlgesculs posts like doing a crossword. Mostly I find the crosswords easier:t_up:

Yep - even the cryptic crosswords are simpler to comprehend - but not as much fun.:)

[bull....]

think having both long and short views expressed is what investing is about isnt it.

exactly. my posts are ruled by my time constraints

[Waltzing]

Ok i will type it up first before slapping around the characters.

[jimdog31]

i like wz posts they are good for keeping the brain active

I agree, theres usually some nuggets amongst it all, i for one appreciate the overseas perspective he brings

[jimdog31]

theres definitely some big player selling . i managed to sneak in a chunky order at 4.59 which prob should have missed the cutoff but got filled after

[couta1]

theres definitely some big player selling . i managed to sneak in a chunky order at 4.59 which prob should have missed the cutoff but got filled after Yep some of my many orders today got cross matched by the broking company and didn't hit the depth chart, I reckon there are a few big sellers currently.

[jimdog31]

Yep some of my many orders today got cross matched by the broking company and didn't hit the depth chart, I reckon there are a few big sellers currently.

They could have easily driven the price down further today, plenty of buyers sitting at 1.40. Probably want to exit around this price.

[Waltzing]

"overseas perspective he brings"

Born here, 3rd generation to a family of accountants, lawyers and military. If I did not have an NZ passport; I would not have been lucky enough shelter here in the waka too.

It is just having spent time overseas and first landed in Holland in my early 20's, one adjusts to one’s environment. I was sent to Europe by Swedish and Dutch immigrants in the early 1980’s.

Amsterdam was a wonderful city to live in before the tourists over ran it a decade or so later.

OCA:

OCA is a very interesting stock. Thank you to M for sharing his extremely well researched information here on the forum.

[jimdog31]

"overseas perspective he brings"

Born here, 3rd generation to a family of accountants, lawyers and military. If I did not have an NZ passport; I would not have been lucky enough shelter here in the waka too.

It is just having spent time overseas and first landed in Holland in my early 20's, one adjusts to one’s environment. I was sent to Europe by Swedish and Dutch immigrants in the early 1980’s.

OCA is a very interesting stock. Thank you to M for sharing his extremely well researched information here on the forum.

I meant the perspective you bring in regards to the overseas markets you trade in.

[Beagle]

OCA - BBB - Beagle busy buying :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

I think I found out where Mr W stands on OCA ...he prefers WHS to OCA ...thinks its better bet ...so that makes him negative on OCA ...:p

Looks like the line is pretty clear drawn between traders (favoring WHS) and investors with a long term horizon (favoring OCA).

Actually - I think they both might well be right :):

[couta1]

That MACD indicator thingummy not looking flash at the moment, same as a lot of other shares though.

[winner69]

Hope the good SUM sales numbers out today reignites interest in the sector and this flows over to Oceania

OCA needs all the help it can get -- going nowhere by itself

[alokdhir]

Hope the good SUM sales numbers out today reignites interest in the sector and this flows over to Oceania

OCA needs all the help it can get -- going nowhere by itself

Next months results are the best hope ...all know OCA model vs SUM model difference ....So OCA has been separated in the eyes of market at the moment

[winner69]

Next months results are the best hope ...all know OCA model vs SUM model difference ....So OCA has been separated in the eyes of market at the moment

Sector sentiment a (key) driver to share price still though

[alokdhir]

Sector sentiment a (key) driver to share price still though

Hardly rubs on OCA ...past experience

Though now Couta and Mr B buying big time ...so I am expecting 1.45 soon lol

[Waltzing]

Demand at this price for OCA by certain individual's could be high as they have cash to deploy after selling WHS.

They are the sort of trading rotations one would often execute in the GFC.

When your mind is processing a lot of information in a crisis your Gamma's waves will swamp your Alpha and Beta.

The question for the current fair value is the expected NTA value?

[alokdhir]

Demand at this price for OCA by certain individual's could be high as they have cash to deploy after selling WHS.

They are the sort of trading rotations one would often execute in the GFC.

When your mind is processing a lot of information in a crisis your Gamma's waves will swamp your Alpha and Beta.

The question for the current fair value is the expected NTA value?

Easily 135 possible ...if CVD reaches any care home then maybe golden opportunity of 130 possible

[couta1]

Buyers and sellers in equilibrium so all good.

[DonkeyKong]

Hopefully our government will mandate vaccinations for all aged-care workers. Seems stupid not to.

Announced at todays update.

”Sweeping vaccine mandate for teachers and most healthcare workers … including aged residential care staff“

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300427213/covid19-live-mandatory-jabs-for-education-health-staff-while-alert-level-3-extended-in-auckland-waikato-northland

[alokdhir]

Buyers and sellers in equilibrium so all good.

Now that bulk seller moved to 1.41 ...still selling in 50k lots ...

[couta1]

Now that bulk seller moved to 1.41 ...still selling in 50k lots ... Whats a cent or three between friends and who will care once the sp eventually doubles.

[justakiwi]

deleted .................................................. ...............

[Bjauck]

Apologies for detracting from the thread but .... how somebody believes is it OK/justified to give me a negative rep vote for this post, is beyond me. I don't give a rat's a*** about rep votes, but using them like this makes a mockery of the rep vote system. Save them for when they are genuinely needed buddy.

<resuming normal transmission> Perhaps someone took offence at the reference to "buckets of cash sitting around"?

[percy]

Apologies for detracting from the thread but .... how somebody believes is it OK/justified to give me a negative rep vote for this post, is beyond me. I don't give a rat's a*** about rep votes, but using them like this makes a mockery of the rep vote system. Save them for when they are genuinely needed buddy.

<resuming normal transmission>

Disgraceful.
You are going great guns.
I enjoy reading your posts, and noting how much you are achieving .

[justakiwi]

No, it wasn't that, but it doesn't matter. I'll go back and delete my post - should have counted to 10 before posting.


Perhaps someone took offence at the reference to "buckets of cash sitting around"?

[Baa_Baa]

I think it is a terrific move by the government to mandate full vaccination for ALL health care workers, including retirement/elder care (and education for that matter). Removes any doubt, that from December 1st, all workers in health care are fully vaccinated and have the best protection available for our most vulnerable population. No jabs no job.

I expect this will alleviate some of the tension in the market around concern for Covid getting into the retirement/care sector.


There is always a risk that covid will get in. But as I have said before, the vast majority of residents and staff will already be fully vaccinated. Hopefully, that will reduce the risk of anyone who gets it, getting seriously ill. Yes, no doubt some will, but I am hopeful that most will not.

Secondly, also as I have said before, providers will continue to put restrictions in place as needed, regardless of what is happening outside in terms of levels. They will always err on the side of caution.

And finally, even if the worst scenario happens, the people living in these villages/care facilities, have nowhere else to go. This is their home. So, the likes of RYM, SUM and OCA will continue to exist. They provide an aged care service that is needed. We cannot do without them. So yes, there may be temporary "set backs" but in the long run, they will be fine.

JMHO for what its worth.

[Baa_Baa]

Disgraceful.
You are going great guns.
I enjoy reading your posts, and noting how much you are achieving .

I agree completely and am shocked as there is nothing in justakiwi's post that is offensive imo. I would like to know who would stoop to giving bad rep for something so innocuous, not to mention it being a great story. I'm very proud of justakiwi and I don't even know them, their story I have recounted to my children, as motivation for what can be achieved in building ones wealth by investing, from nothing. The only thing justakiwi has ever hinted at being remorseful about is to not have started sooner.

[justakiwi]

It will be interesting for sure. I didn't see any mention of exemptions for those with medical reasons not be be vaccinated. I can't imagine they could force staff in that category to be vaccinated OR to have their employment terminated. Perhaps they will get around it by mandating masks (to be worn always, not just at certain lock down levels).

I will be interested to see what happens at work as there is one staff member I know of who has made it very clear they will not be vaccinated (not for health reasons). Going to be very interesting to see how upper management handles it.

I think it is a terrific move by the government to mandate full vaccination for ALL health care workers, including retirement/elder care (and education for that matter). Removes any doubt, that from December 1st, all workers in health care are fully vaccinated and have the best protection available for our most vulnerable population. No jabs no job.

I expect this will alleviate some of the tension in the market around concern for Covid getting into the retirement/care sector.

[dompf]

Whats a cent or three between friends and who will care once the sp eventually doubles.

I like to see you post again Couta, I hope you are right but love the enthusiasm.

still someone selling a lot at the moment. Keep in mind average price is @1.71 on marketscreener.

an announcement for the 100m and financials are around the corner.

[couta1]

The negative rep was given by Crypto Crude simply because he has bucket loads of cash and JAK doesn't, check it out for yourself and be disgusted, i see he also gave you another one not long ago for similar reasons, extremely uncool.

[justakiwi]

I appreciate the support but let's not go there. I wasn't going to name names, but forgot everyone can see rep votes.

OCA is a much more interesting and positive topic of discussion ;)


The negative rep was given by Crypto Crude simply because he has bucket loads of cash and JAK doesn't, check it out for yourself and be disgusted, i see he also gave you another one not long ago for similar reasons, extremely uncool.

[couta1]

I appreciate the support but let's not go there. I wasn't going to name names, but forgot everyone can see rep votes.

OCA is a much more interesting and positive topic of discussion ;) After having received a couple myself for random reasons recently its name and shame from me going forward, cowardly covert personal attacks via bad rep comments need to be called out.

[FatTed]

The only contraindication to vaccination with the Pfizer jab is anaphylaxis to the vaccination. To be clear we need as many people vaccinated as possible, 15% of the population are under 12, we need 5 year old and upwards to get vaccinated, awaiting FDA report later this month. Also to get the job done properly we all need a third vaccination 6-9 months after the second one.

[justakiwi]

There are some other legit reasons one might choose not to have the vaccination. We have a gentlemen in our rest home who is turning 105 at Christmas. He chose to pass on it, and I feel that is a legitimate decision for him. We have another resident who has had negative reactions to various vaccines in the past, so she too has chosen not to have it. Again, a legitimate reason for not having it.

Every other resident has had both doses.

My concern is visitors. Down the track, are we going to check visitors vaccination status, and insist that they always wear a mask and continue to only visit their family/friend, in their rooms - forever? Vaccinated visitors to have the freedom to visit anywhere in the home, and no need for masks?


The only contraindication to vaccination with the Pfizer jab is anaphylaxis to the vaccination. To be clear we need as many people vaccinated as possible, 15% of the population are under 12, we need 5 year old and upwards to get vaccinated, awaiting FDA report later this month. Also to get the job done properly we all need a third vaccination 6-9 months after the second one.

[Curly]

The only contraindication to vaccination with the Pfizer jab is anaphylaxis to the vaccination. To be clear we need as many people vaccinated as possible, 15% of the population are under 12, we need 5 year old and upwards to get vaccinated, awaiting FDA report later this month. Also to get the job done properly we all need a third vaccination 6-9 months after the second one.
What’s more dangerous, the jab or Russian roulette, and they are giving it to our kids.

[FatTed]

There are some other legit reasons one might choose not to have the vaccination. We have a gentlemen in our rest home who is turning 105 at Christmas. He chose to pass on it, and I feel that is a legitimate decision for him. We have another resident who has had negative reactions to various vaccines in the past, so she too has chosen not to have it. Again, a legitimate reason for not having it.

Every other resident has had both doses.

My concern is visitors. Down the track, are we going to check visitors vaccination status, and insist that they always wear a mask and continue to only visit their family/friend, in their rooms - forever? Vaccinated visitors to have the freedom to visit anywhere in the home, and no need for masks?

Sure those are choices not contraindications.

[DonkeyKong]

It will be interesting for sure. I didn't see any mention of exemptions for those with medical reasons not be be vaccinated. I can't imagine they could force staff in that category to be vaccinated OR to have their employment terminated. Perhaps they will get around it by mandating masks (to be worn always, not just at certain lock down levels).

I will be interested to see what happens at work as there is one staff member I know of who has made it very clear they will not be vaccinated (not for health reasons). Going to be very interesting to see how upper management handles it.

If I recall correctly, at the 4pm press conference, Ashley Bloomfield mentioned there would be some exemptions for those with medical reasons but didn’t go into much detail.

Edit: here it is https://youtu.be/IibIYDX533o?t=2289

[Blue Skies]

Extremely pleased to see govt mandated vaccination for health workers.

Many anti-vaxers who think they will qualify for a medical exemption to the Pfizer vaccine, in fact won't, was reading maybe 100 people in whole of NZ.

Heard of 1 Aucklander who's still refusing to get vaccinated assume their asthma will give them an exemption. Absurd!

The vaccine even safe for people having chemo, surgery, organ or bone marrow transplants, though with appropriate timing.

The only possible reason is an extremely unusal allergic reaction to 1 of the ingredients (PEG) which is common in most cosmetics and soaps, shampoos, skin creams etc, so they would be well aware of it.

Attached Herald article referencing almost no one in Australia medically exempt.




https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-almost-no-one-in-australia-medically-exempt-from-coronavirus-vaccinations-health-expert/TLNOOEJD2VCUVCAZACHN5HSAZY/

[Dlownz]

Extremely pleased to see govt mandated vaccination for health workers.

Many anti-vaxers who think they will qualify for a medical exemption to the Pfizer vaccine, in fact won't, was reading maybe 100 people in whole of NZ.

Heard of 1 Aucklander who's still refusing to get vaccinated assume their asthma will give them an exemption. Absurd!

The vaccine even safe for people having chemo, surgery, organ or bone marrow transplants, though with appropriate timing.

The only possible reason is an extremely unusal allergic reaction to 1 of the ingredients (PEG) which is common in most cosmetics and soaps, shampoos, skin creams etc, so they would be well aware of it.

Attached Herald article referencing almost no one in Australia medically exempt.




https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-almost-no-one-in-australia-medically-exempt-from-coronavirus-vaccinations-health-expert/TLNOOEJD2VCUVCAZACHN5HSAZY/

I think myocarditis (inflammation of the heart) is one of the more serious side effects. But it's a 1 in 50000 chance and most that get it are fine and recover. But from what I understand is if you were to get this reaction you would have had the same thing happen if you caught the virus. It's just exposing a flaw in your body

[2EXTREME]

You are correct. My daughters cardiologist (when checking with him before she had the vaccine, which she was all good to) said that in his professional opinion that any reaction to the vaccine would pale in comparison to what would happen from actually getting the virus, including longer term resulting effects.

[alokdhir]

I think myocarditis (inflammation of the heart) is one of the more serious side effects. But it's a 1 in 50000 chance and most that get it are fine and recover. But from what I understand is if you were to get this reaction you would have had the same thing happen if you caught the virus. It's just exposing a flaw in your body

Doctors advise not to exercise or better rest for 2-6 hrs after the jab in UK to avoid this risk ...especially in young males

[mike2020]

Doctors advise not to exercise or better rest for 2-6 hrs after the jab in UK to avoid this risk ...especially in young males
A friend in Singapore said take it easy for a couple of days, I saw no harm in it and it seemed like common sense. Not like Russian roulette where one in six die :confused:

On a related subject, has covid made it into any retirement villages in Aus lately? Does anyone know?

[bottomfeeder]

I dont believe Covid is a large threat to the successful operation of OCA.

[justakiwi]

Me neither. Those living in OCA facilities know very well that they are being taken good care of, and that OCA is taking every precaution to keep them as safe as possible. Their families also know this. As do shareholders.

There is always a chance covid might get in, but there will be a comprehensive plan in place for how to manage that, which will kick in immediately, should a case be identified. I have much greater faith in the likes of OCA etc, to manage it efficiently, than I do in my own place of work.

As I have said before, these providers are essential. Nobody else can provide the services/care they are providing. Residents will stay because it is their home. The government will continue to pay subsidies, residents/families will continue to pay their fees, and units/care beds will continue to be sold. The elderly who are currently living in the community will see OCA (and others) as a safer and supported place to live, especially those who currently have no family for support.

I do think OCA and others will have to give thought to how to manage unvaccinated visitors, but I'm sure they are already working on that.



I dont believe Covid is a large threat to the successful operation of OCA.

[Beagle]

Me neither. Those living in OCA facilities know very well that they are being taken good care of, and that OCA is taking every precaution to keep them as safe as possible. Their families also know this. As do shareholders.

There is always a chance covid might get in, but there will be a comprehensive plan in place for how to manage that, which will kick in immediately, should a case be identified. I have much greater faith in the likes of OCA etc, to manage it efficiently, than I do in my own place of work.

As I have said before, these providers are essential. Nobody else can provide the services/care they are providing. Residents will stay because it is their home. The government will continue to pay subsidies, residents/families will continue to pay their fees, and units/care beds will continue to be sold. The elderly who are currently living in the community will see OCA (and others) as a safer and supported place to live, especially those who currently have no family for support.

I do think OCA and others will have to give thought to how to manage unvaccinated visitors, but I'm sure they are already working on that.

Thank you, I agree and by the way well done on the growth rate of your portfolio. Young or old, much or little, you sharing your investing journey was refreshing because its encouragement to others that its never to late to start investing to build a more resilient financial future for your wellbeing.

Folks, here is the right thread to discuss general Covid matters.
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11704-Coronavirus/page520

[Bjauck]

A friend in Singapore said take it easy for a couple of days, I saw no harm in it and it seemed like common sense. Not like Russian roulette where one in six die :confused:

On a related subject, has covid made it into any retirement villages in Aus lately? Does anyone know? I think standard advice is to take it easy for the next day at least after a vaccination. The poster who wondered which was worse - the jab or Russian roulette - was being mischievous.

[oldtech]

I think standard advice is to take it easy for the next day at least after a vaccination. The poster who wondered which was worse - the jab or Russian roulette - was being mischievous.


Several work colleagues have reported feeling quite exhausted after the second vaccine, and pretty much sleeping for the entire day. On the other hand, my wife who is in her 60s had absolutely no ill-effects at all.

[couta1]

I dont believe Covid is a large threat to the successful operation of OCA. Absolutely not since Covid will be just part of life like the common flu given time, next please.

[alokdhir]

OCA becoming more and more attractive ...1.39 is better then 1.42 to buy :D

[777]

Absolutely not since Covid will be just part of life like the common flu given time, next please.

Yes, as a result of those getting vaccinated. No thanks to those that don't.

[Waltzing]

WHS ahead today...

long run different story of course. Sky could fall tomorrow.

[alokdhir]

WHS ahead today...

long run different story of course. Sky could fall tomorrow.

Like your modesty ..lol :D

[Beagle]

OCA becoming more and more attractive ...1.39 is better then 1.42 to buy :D

The big seller(s) is / are surprisingly aggressive. Opportunity knocks for those that haven't already got their fill ?

[couta1]

OCA becoming more and more attractive ...1.39 is better then 1.42 to buy :D Get amongst it, a few FPH are going out the door as we speak. Lol