OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bottomfeeder]

I think you have to be in a position as I have recently where my mother in law needed special care. Getting into the care home that you want is difficult and also getting into the level of accommodation is also difficult. And the cost is astronomical. But when you survey the alternatives you have very little choice. So having this experience, I believe the sector will continue as the best inflation proof investment that you can get.

How can the government legislate for lower costs. There is a cost for this type of care, and it unfortunately has to be accepted. You cant legislate for lower charges when you dont control the costs. You still have to build facilities, you still have to pay wages, you still have to supply food and care of a reasonable standard. And you can not do it at a loss for any length of time. Otherwise you would exit an industry where demand is just reaching such high levels.

Ive seen it and I am in it. Are you?

[Panda-NZ-]

And it will continue forever. But sometimes we do get it right. OCA is an inflation proof investment. It has an aging population intent of getting into its villages. Or perhaps forced into its villages. There are always very few alternatives. Even competition does not take your business away as there is excess demand. I am so overweight in this company its not funny, but I am happy and have levels where I will continue to buy and times where I will sell.


It's not a cost proof investment though. Lots of issues there.

[Rawz]

I don't think the govt will intervene too hard on OCA, SUM, RYM etc. At the end of the day these guys are some of the biggest house builders in the country. Stop that at your peril.

[Panda-NZ-]

One should be thankful that only the care fees portion is subject to a revenue tax, rather than all of it like other businesses.

[Brain]

I am so pleased that you are all so positive that the retirement sector will be left alone and left to prosper. The country also needs landlords so I find it puzzling that tax deductibility of a legitimate business expense has been denied. The government thinks that landlords make too much money and quite possibility the same reasoning may be applied in the future to the retirement sector. My point is that nobody should put too many eggs into the retirement basket. Things can change very quickly. This is not a done deal.

[Panda-NZ-]

Aging is unfortunately a done deal, for the time being.

[Mudfish]

[QUOTE=Brain;888843]I am so pleased that you are all so positive that the retirement sector will be left alone and left to prosper. The country also needs landlords so I find it puzzling that tax deductibility of a legitimate business expense has been denied. The government thinks that landlords make too much money and quite possibility the same reasoning may be applied in the future to the retirement sector. My point is that nobody should put too many eggs into the retirement basket. Things can change very quickly. This is not a done deal.

The new rules seem to favour and encourage new builds which adds to the NZ housing pool. Could be a good thing to try and cool the market for our kids's sake yet keep new homes coming. Aged care facilities create new houses/rooms/whatever too, adding to the NZ housing pool. Nothing is certain, for sure, but it seems unlikely the Government will want to curb building new stuff, they have already demonstrated they are mindful to keep new houses coming. The whole country needs it.

[justakiwi]

And don’t forget, every person moving into a village (villa, apartment, care suite or standard care bed) is usually selling/vacating a 2-3 bedroom house, which will then be available for a couple or family to buy/rent. It is in government’s best interests to support the retirement village/aged care sector - I imagine many more homes will be freed up this way over 12 months, than will be able to be built.

The government needs these providers in more ways than one in actual fact.


Aged care facilities create new houses/rooms/whatever too, adding to the NZ housing pool. Nothing is certain, for sure, but it seems unlikely the Government will want to curb building new stuff, they have already demonstrated they are mindful to keep new houses coming. The whole country needs it.

[Joh13]

Just imagine if the government decide to only make a few minor changes to the RV sector... like a guaranteed time frame that the former occupants family receive the funds after DMFs and/or care fees. Maybe stop charging fees one month after they no longer are occupying the ILU/CS and make the contract slightly easier to understand, like they have suggested. This I think would be a positive outcome for both sides.

But then on top of that the government decides to increase funding for care significantly, because they realise that they need the RV operators, because there is no way that hospitals or the government would be able to handle the growing number of care required for the older generation if operators suddenly decided that it is no longer feasible to offer care.

What then for the RV sector and OCA specifically?

I think these things are plausible, probably and likely to occur, or more likely to happen than not. Of course there's the possibility that it all turns south as well, but if I thought that was the most likely outcome I would not be invested in OCA.

In my opinion this bodes well for the future of OCA... like others have suggested it may take a while to see the fruit, but it'll be pretty darn juicy when it is ripe IMO.

[artemis]

In the 2017 government, Tracey Martin, as Minister for Seniors, said Cabinet was considering requiring (forcing) retirement villages to include 'affordable' units. State housing for seniors, she said. Went nowhere but did it? Or is it still quietly on the table waiting for a captain's call.

[artemis]

Just imagine if the government decide to only make a few minor changes to the RV sector... But then on top of that the government decides to increase funding for care significantly ..... .

The retirement sector is businesses large and small. With owners. They can pivot because they have land, expertise, and did I mention owners? If units subsidise care and the government meddles with the models then the businesses will consider their options. Including across the ditch, alrady underway.

We have already seen some on the care end close down, and some have rearranged their staff roles to make the best of the recent mandated pay rates for some roles

[BlackPeter]

In the 2017 government, Tracey Martin, as Minister for Seniors, said Cabinet was considering requiring (forcing) retirement villages to include 'affordable' units. State housing for seniors, she said. Went nowhere but did it? Or is it still quietly on the table waiting for a captain's call.

I recon this would hurt retirement village providers in a similar way than the provision of "affordable houses" hurts real estate developers?

Would as well work out the same way.

[Bjauck]

In the 2017 government, Tracey Martin, as Minister for Seniors, said Cabinet was considering requiring (forcing) retirement villages to include 'affordable' units. State housing for seniors, she said. Went nowhere but did it? Or is it still quietly on the table waiting for a captain's call. Since then they have introduced policy changes which they hope may flatten price increases and create a soft landing for the housing market. So perhaps affordability generally may improve from now on, especially if interest rates start again to rise?

[Maverick]

Just imagine if the government decide to only make a few minor changes to the RV sector... like a guaranteed time frame that the former occupants family receive the funds after DMFs and/or care fees. Maybe stop charging fees one month after they no longer are occupying the ILU/CS and make the contract slightly easier to understand, like they have suggested. This I think would be a positive outcome for both sides.

But then on top of that the government decides to increase funding for care significantly, because they realise that they need the RV operators, because there is no way that hospitals or the government would be able to handle the growing number of care required for the older generation if operators suddenly decided that it is no longer feasible to offer care.

I think these things are plausible, probably and likely to occur, or more likely to happen than not.
.
I've been thinking the same thing myself Joh. The common perception is that the Govt just 'cut's, but like you I suspect the opposite awaits and a fairly decent catchup pay increase will be forthcoming.

We all acknowledge the profit on pure care (without the ORA or PAC model) is wafer thin and always will be. Its a fine balance the Govt has to calculate to keep resthome doors open while keeping things ultra competitive.
If funding increases overly . OCA wins
If funding is insufficient , rest homes close or at least new ones don't get built. OCA wins.

Here are the DHB funding increases for the last 4 years.

2018 9.7%
2019 5.8%
2020 3%
2021 2.6%

It would not surprise me at all for our current leaders to "be kind" in 2022.

BTW , in case anyone missed it, OCA went ex 2.1c divi this morning

[dobby41]

At the risk of being labelled “emotional” again, I personally have no objection to some kind of capital gains sharing. I’m not talking a 50/50 split or anything like that, but I think there is room for negotiation. But no, I don’t expect anyone to agree with me ;)

I agree with you.
I think it best that the sector voluntarily read the writing on the wall and move in that direction rather than be forced.
That way they will be more in control of the inevitable change.

[Waltzing]

Currently capital gain is the only thing keeping this company afloat and giving it some hope. Why would you invest in this lovely old persons home solution if not for capital gain.

SELL NOW!

If you have ever prepared multiple sets of accounts for Trusts , individuals and private companies year on year you might find you move into the MR B camp sooner than you expect.

Its then you realised how inefficient the tax system really is.

[justakiwi]

Plus, whoever is “first off the blocks” with a plan for voluntary capital gain sharing, will reap the rewards. Instant brownie points, excellent marketing point, and an influx of inquiries and sign-ups. I would be very happy to see OCA take the initiative and get in first.


I agree with you.
I think it best that the sector voluntarily read the writing on the wall and move in that direction rather than be forced.
That way they will be more in control of the inevitable change.

[RTM]

Plus, whoever is “first off the blocks” with a plan for voluntary capital gain sharing, will reap the rewards. Instant brownie points, excellent marketing point, and an influx of inquiries and sign-ups. I would be very happy to see OCA take the initiative and get in first.

If they have enough customers...why would they want to do this ? Its just giving away profit.

[justakiwi]

Does any business ever “have enough customers?” Isn’t the point of most businesses to continue to build their customer base? Especially in this sector where they only have their customers for a limited period of time (until they die). The business is based on a revolving customer base - people out, people in.

Sometimes “giving away” profit, is a sensible way to generate business and create more profit.

Don’t forget that families of “customers” often play a large part in the decision making process. If their mum or dad is looking for a villa/apartment, which provider do you think they will recommend? The one that operates under the current status quo, or the one that thinks outside the square and agrees to a share of capital gain? Even a minimal split is better than none. I know which one I would choose.

I get that these providers are in the business of making money out of real estate. I do. But if they can be seen to be genuinely concerned for their customers, and willing to forego a small percentage of profits for the good of those customers, it will work to their advantage. It is also a much better “look” to do it voluntarily.

Sometimes you need to look at things from a different perspective and think outside the square. Whoever is willing to do this will have the competitive advantage in my opinion.


If they have enough customers...why would they want to do this ? Its just giving away profit.

[Rawz]

...

Don’t forget that families of “customers” often play a large part in the decision making process. If their mum or dad is looking for a villa/apartment, which provider do you think they will recommend? The one that operates under the current status quo, or the one that thinks outside the square and agrees to a share of capital gain? Even a minimal split is better than none. I know which one I would choose.

..

I agree with a lot of what you say JAK but not sure I am with you on this one. CARE is going to be the top priority when choosing a RV for mum and dad (if they need help choosing). Sharing capital gain is going to be a bonus if it comes with it. But wont be a factor in choosing.

An efficient market will keep pricing of all RV operators within cooee of each other. Just like all things business I guess.

[Rawz]

delete repeated post, have a nice day

[justakiwi]

Apologies if it seemed like I was implying capital gain sharing would be top priority - that’s not what I mean’t. I meant in an “all other things being equal” situation - a capital gains sharing plan would be a huge bonus, and quite possibly the deal maker or breaker when deciding between several providers.


I agree with a lot of what you say JAK but not sure I am with you on this one. CARE is going to be the top priority when choosing a RV for mum and dad (if they need help choosing). Sharing capital gain is going to be a bonus if it comes with it. But wont be a factor in choosing.

An efficient market will keep pricing of all RV operators within cooee of each other. Just like all things business I guess.

[peat]

now might be a time when sharing the capital gain might not be so expensive.... not that I expect this to gain traction as it would change the model completely

there is an actual benefit to not sharing the capital gain though , and that is a lessening of risk. Ownership involves risk. Sure , no one knows about downside risk in NZ but it does exist. eg leaky homes. And as you get closer to the end you should under normal rules become more risk averse. So despite it being perceived as a one way street it should not be - there are some benefits to Licenses to Occupy

[Baa_Baa]

now might be a time when sharing the capital gain might not be so expensive.... not that I expect this to gain traction as it would change the model completely

there is an actual benefit to not sharing the capital gain though , and that is a lessening of risk. Ownership involves risk. Sure , no one knows about downside risk in NZ but it does exist. eg leaky homes. And as you get closer to the end you should under normal rules become more risk averse. So despite it being perceived as a one way street it should not be - there are some benefits to Licenses to Occupy

The right to occupy model means that the buyer has no rights to the capital value of the asset. Changing that right to share the value of the asset could be more complicated legally, not less. It would have to include sharing a loss should that eventuate.

I’m all for residents or their beneficiaries getting paid out quickly, less deferred maintenance, but as a part owner of the asset, I see no reason or obligation to share gains or losses on the asset.

[peat]

less deferred maintenance

lets not get carried away ;+)

[Beagle]

I've been thinking the same thing myself Joh. The common perception is that the Govt just 'cut's, but like you I suspect the opposite awaits and a fairly decent catchup pay increase will be forthcoming.

We all acknowledge the profit on pure care (without the ORA or PAC model) is wafer thin and always will be. Its a fine balance the Govt has to calculate to keep resthome doors open while keeping things ultra competitive.
If funding increases overly . OCA wins
If funding is insufficient , rest homes close or at least new ones don't get built. OCA wins.

Here are the DHB funding increases for the last 4 years.

2018 9.7%
2019 5.8%
2020 3%
2021 2.6%

It would not surprise me at all for our current leaders to "be kind" in 2022.

BTW , in case anyone missed it, OCA went ex 2.1c divi this morning

I don't disagree with the overall thrust of what you've said mate but the facts that I have highlighted do not give any encouragement that what you are hoping for will come to fruition.
The trend downwards in the rate of those increases is crystal clear and in the last 2 years are nowhere near keeping up with annual average wage cost inflation prevailing at OCA that's averaged nearly 8% per annum since it listed.
RYM's CEO (Gordon McLeod's) concerns that something has to give are very real but as this stage, looking at those figures, all you can conclude is that the Govt thinks the retirement village sector will have to keep sucking it up in an ever increasing way. The reality of the situation is really quite stark. Cindy is quite happy to trample over landlords rights to achieve the right look for her socialist agenda so it should be clear that in the short term there's no political capital for Cindy in acquiescing to retirement village companies demands.

[Beagle]

................website playing up again with double post.

[Panda-NZ-]

Look over the ditch to see widespread neglect being uncovered from their royal commision.

We're perhaps world leading in retirement care. More should be spent on keeping people out of these homes in my view.

People don't want to be in a retirement village if they can help it.

[James108]

People don't want to be in a retirement village if they can help it.

Really disagree with this statement. Some people might not want to but a lot of people do love the village life. Retirement villages and especially those that offer care provide a lot of value and I don't begrudge them making money from it.

[Panda-NZ-]

It can be provided outside the retirement village format I think if people want more social support.

[Panda-NZ-]

Wouldn't you want to be around some young people too?

Being exclusively around people of my age would be rather daunting. Feed off the youthful energy and it will help to provide a healthier life :)

[Panda-NZ-]

Plus having friends pass away every month / year. It's a bleakway of living unless you need the medical support.

[BlackPeter]

Plus having friends pass away every month / year. It's a bleakway of living unless you need the medical support.

Probably more a reflection on one's own age, rather than where one lives, isn't it?

Agree however, that it would be nice to have (as well) younger people around. That's what it used to be when generations still lived together - there was no need and no market for retirement villages.

Maybe an idea for the providers of this service? Can't be that hard to e.g. combine retirement villages with student accommodation and possibly some child care - the retirees could even help with the child care ... rent a grandma :):

[justakiwi]

It’s actually not - well at least not from my small rest home perspective. Most of our residents are not with us because they need medical support. Most are here because they could no longer manage the tasks that go with owning a house. Gardening, lawn mowing, maintenance, housework etc. Some have had falls at home so for them, living in rest home gives them added security and peace of mind. They no longer need to worry about cooking, doing laundry, paying the bills or rates.

The other thing to remember is, what we call “old” is actually a wide range of ages. Our oldest resident is coming up 105 at Christmas. Our youngest is 71. We have many in their 90s and the rest are mid 80s. The youngest residents are young enough to be the son/daughter of the oldest residents!

Yes, people die (I hate the term “pass away”) but guess what? It is part of life, and our elderly know that. When a resident dies, we offer their family a Guard of Honour farewell. Most take this offer up. We set up seats just outside the front doors (or inside if raining) where residents who want to be part of it sit on either side. One of our 90+ year old residents plays his keyboard. We have flowers or sprigs of herbs etc for residents/family/staff to place on the coffin as the funeral directors bring it out. Sometimes we sing a song (sometimes in Maori). Sometimes a staff member will say a few words about the person who has died. Often, their family members will take the time to express their gratitude and appreciation for the care we gave their loved one. There are tears and hugs, and sometimes laughs. They provide us all with a way to say goodbye to the person and express our grief. They are very special moments and something our residents really value.

I know many of you will have visited a relative or friend in some form of aged care facility. It probably didn’t feel like somewhere you would ever want to be. I used to feel the same until I worked in one. It feels like home and it feels like family.


Plus having friends pass away every month / year. It's a bleakway of living unless you need the medical support.

[Panda-NZ-]

It’s actually not - well at least not from my small rest home perspective. Most of our residents are not with us because they need medical support. Most are here because they could no longer manage the tasks that go with owning a house. Gardening, lawn mowing, maintenance, housework etc. Some have had falls at home so for them, living in rest home gives them added security and peace of mind. They no longer need to worry about cooking, doing laundry, paying the bills or rates.



I'd consider those health issues too. There's something wrong when they can't do those tasks.

My own elderly relative is not interested in nursing homes and has been to them when her friend had dementia. I would think it's a relatively common attitude so it's good there's people who are changing that perception in nz.

Farmers are said to live longer on average so maybe retiring to a small farm or something would be the retirement choice for me.

[justakiwi]

Falls related - fair enough. But if you seriously expect all 80 or 90 year olds to be able to or want to, still mow lawns, do gardens, maintain a household, you are a tad delusional. Some will be physically able to but many will not. That is simply a fact of growing older. It doesn’t automatically imply the person has “something wrong with them.”

I am not saying everyone should move into a rest home or other aged care facility. I’m saying we need options for them to do this should they need or wish to. One size doesn’t fit all, anymore than it does in other areas or stages of life.

I don’t think it helps that members of the general public often express negative views about aged care, without having all the facts, open minds, and preferably personal experiences that consist of more than just “visiting” a facility.




I'd consider those health issues too. There's something wrong when they can't do those tasks.

My own elderly relative is not interested in nursing homes and has been to them when her friend had dementia. I would think it's a relatively common attitude so it's good there's people who are changing that perception.

Farmers can live without health issues according to medical studies on average so maybe retiring to a small hobby farm or something would be the retirement choice for me :P

[Panda-NZ-]

I didn't say that anywhere. I said it's a health issue which is the opposite of what you said even if there is no treatment currently.

[Brain]

It’s actually not - well at least not from my small rest home perspective. Most of our residents are not with us because they need medical support. Most are here because they could no longer manage the tasks that go with owning a house. Gardening, lawn mowing, maintenance, housework etc. Some have had falls at home so for them, living in rest home gives them added security and peace of mind. They no longer need to worry about cooking, doing laundry, paying the bills or rates.

The other thing to remember is, what we call “old” is actually a wide range of ages. Our oldest resident is coming up 105 at Christmas. Our youngest is 71. We have many in their 90s and the rest are mid 80s. The youngest residents are young enough to be the son/daughter of the oldest residents!

Yes, people die (I hate the term “pass away”) but guess what? It is part of life, and our elderly know that. When a resident dies, we offer their family a Guard of Honour farewell. Most take this offer up. We set up seats just outside the front doors (or inside if raining) where residents who want to be part of it sit on either side. One of our 90+ year old residents plays his keyboard. We have flowers or sprigs of herbs etc for residents/family/staff to place on the coffin as the funeral directors bring it out. Sometimes we sing a song (sometimes in Maori). Sometimes a staff member will say a few words about the person who has died. Often, their family members will take the time to express their gratitude and appreciation for the care we gave their loved one. There are tears and hugs, and sometimes laughs. They provide us all with a way to say goodbye to the person and express our grief. They are very special moments and something our residents really value.

I know many of you will have visited a relative or friend in some form of aged care facility. It probably didn’t feel like somewhere you would ever want to be. I used to feel the same until I worked in one. It feels like home and it feels like family.

Nice post Justakiwi

[justakiwi]

Rubbish. You said “if they can’t do these things, there’s something wrong” (or words to that affect). Ageing itself is a natural profession of life. It is not a “health condition.” We have residents who take no medication for anything - who do not have a specific health condition. They are simply growing older/approaching end of life, with bodies that are wearing out. Simple, straightforward reality.


I didn't say that anywhere. I said it's a health issue which is the opposite of what you said and I don't expect them to do those things. No one does.

It's still a health issue even if there isn't a treatment.

[Panda-NZ-]

It is simply a fact of growing older. It doesn’t automatically imply the person has “something wrong with them.”



IF you ask people they would want these functions back probably.

[justakiwi]

OMG. Are you for real? We are talking about ageing. This is how it works.


IF you ask people they would want these functions back probably.

[Panda-NZ-]

Does someone who is 100 years old appear healthy?

That is your argument essentially and I don't entirely agree.

[justakiwi]

Yes! Sometimes. If you met our 105 year old gentleman, you would have no idea he was that old. He is mentally as sharp as a tack - easily the most mentally agile resident in our home. He is on a couple of medications but has no major, serious “illnesses or conditions.” He is probably healthier than most of us. But his body is physically declining simply because it is now 105 years old! He’s not sick. He’s just dying - as are we all.

I honestly don’t know how to better explain this to you. Old age does not automatically equal “unhealthy.”


Does someone who is 100 years appear old healthy?
That is your argument

[Panda-NZ-]

That's great. but his physical health is poor.

Maybe he could work again if the physical issues were solved (assuming the world is perfect).

[justakiwi]

I think you’re just being pedantic for the sake of it. I’m out.


That's great. but his physical health is poor.

Maybe he could work again if the physical issues were solved (assuming the world is perfect).

[Panda-NZ-]

Fair enough.. the point here is that there's maybe more effective things to do than throwing $millions per person at the end of life.

[bull....]

Fair enough.. the point here is that there's maybe more effective things to do than throwing $millions per person at the end of life.

once a lawyer told me old people in a rest home are not of any economic value , when i was questioning the state of care provided

[RTM]

Look over the ditch to see widespread neglect being uncovered from their royal commision.

We're perhaps world leading in retirement care. More should be spent on keeping people out of these homes in my view.

People don't want to be in a retirement village if they can help it.

I have spoken to quite a few people in villages and they love it. Wished they’d moved their earlier.
We all have different perspectives I guess. It’s not for me, that’s for sure.

[Old mate]

I have found through life as you get older your views and opinions change greatly:)

[Panda-NZ-]

Can you exercise often in a rest home?

It's probably essential to maintain good health and function especially at an older age.

[Snow Leopard]

Can you exercise often in a rest home?

It's basically essential to maintain good health and function especially at an older age.

They untie the residents twice a day so they can get out of their chairs.

What is the matter with you?

[Panda-NZ-]

Well in some cases that's true isn't it (look at the australian RC into this industry).

It's a pretty bad situation in most countries I would say.


Isocrates lived until 98 and only died in 338BC when he wanted to. Maybe its time to aim for more with our technology.

[Dcm]

Remind me why we are looking at how bad it is in other countries

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372535/346452.pdf

Come on guys, too much sadness and talk of death in this thread today. Have a look at page 11 and 12 Waimarie Street and the new village out at Hobsonville with nice views out over the harbor. Mrs B and I drove past the Waimarie development today and they're certainly cracking on with construction and that village will have absolutely sunning views out over the inner harbor and Hauraki gulf.

I can just imagine Mrs B and I in an upmarket independent living apartment there waddling down to the local St Heliers cafe's with our two Beagles in tow, marveling at the views and ambience. All the gardening and maintenance done for us, having the grandkids come around for a visit and shouting them nice treats at one of the local cafe's ...where do we sign ?

Alternatively there's the new Waterford with bowling green and swimming pool and nice views https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/location/waterford Doesn't look too bad either

Nice break up through the 100 day moving average despite going ex a 2.1 cent divvy. https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=hIYy0FFq&id=61506B60806C9AEB811B8DFDE2926072EB639A9C&thid=OIP.hIYy0FFqaqH7rVAPtvIupQHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fwooftiny.com%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2020%2f04%2f10-Pictures-Beagle-Make-Me-So-Happy-03.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR8486 32d0516a6aa1fbad500fb6f22ea5%3frik%3dnJpj63JgkuL9j Q%26pid%3dImgRaw&exph=858&expw=858&q=happy+beagle&simid=608036651891379395&ck=D9E1EA402EF10339944DBFFB6E2572D1&selectedIndex=16&qpvt=happy+beagle&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[bottomfeeder]

Yep cant understand the market. Goes ex div and the SP increases. Something is up. Someones buying and trying to keep the SP low. Not worried about a few cents. Could be a takeover. I might say $1.60.

[Leftfield]

Yep cant understand the market. Goes ex div and the SP increases. Something is up. Someones buying and trying to keep the SP low. Not worried about a few cents. Could be a takeover. I might say $1.60.

Takeover!? Crikey who would have thought.......the OCA thread is beginning to sound like the SKT thread.

[Greekwatchdog]

Was just thinking the same thing. What Earl and MET making an early bid....I hope not.

[aperitif]

Takeover!? Crikey who would have thought.......the OCA thread is beginning to sound like the SKT thread.

Thus why this forum is the ultimate gauge of sentiment, and only that. People on here change their mind’s more often than their underwear.

“Investors too bite on what’s moving and can’t sit on a stock that isn’t going anywhere”.

Chris Mayer - 100 baggers

[Guild]

Panda just so you get an idea of a regular week in a rest home this one Arvida in Christchurch, but i am sure Oceania is similar.
My 93yr old Mother plays cards, word games, crafts, and generally goes on one outing each week, sometimes to a restaurant for lunch, or to a show or just a scenic drive and an ice cream stop. Has the option of yoga, exercise class, bowls and going shopping, they also have entertainers in. Occasionally they have celebration parties ie high tea for the queens birthday. BBQ's and picnics.
As well as still being able to drive herself she is mentally sharp.
I believe that a lot of this is to do with the stimulation that she has both with staff and residents.
She is receiving a lot more stimulation than when she was in her own house despite many visitors and visits out, and good neighbours. Her mental health and physical health are better.
Like Just a Kiwi said, she knows death is a part of life, and perhaps being in a retirement village, also takes away some of the fear, there is a revolving door of new residents coming in and residents passing on. She sees the tolerance and help for those that are unable to physically or mentally interact, and knows if or when she gets to that stage she will be cared for and respected.
There is a constant of conversations and laughter, a thing she had lost with people of her own age as her friends had passed away.
Panda-NZ you mentioned about having young people around, she meets and interacts with more young people now than before, from pre school age groups to young staff.
It took my Mum quite a long time to consider moving into a village, now she recommends it to everybody.
We don't care about capital gain on her apartment or how long it takes to be paid back, all we care about is that she feels valued as a resident.

[Panda-NZ-]

My grandmother can still drive at 89 which is good.
She hates aging though, laments it even and the health effects which spring out of nowhere.

Men did not get this chance until recently and I don't think any man in my family line has lived past 72. It was probably the smoking which was common back in the day.

Living past the retirement age is amazing though and a recent development for society but much more is needed.

[Panda-NZ-]

Oceania Healthcare is obviously top class along with some others. Even in NZ though there some which have issues.

[Beagle]

Yep cant understand the market. Goes ex div and the SP increases. Something is up. Someones buying and trying to keep the SP low. Not worried about a few cents. Could be a takeover. I might say $1.60.


Was just thinking the same thing. What Earl and MET making an early bid....I hope not.

Relax guys, we're nearly half way through 2021 and the share price is still below where it started the year. IF we stay Covid free for the vast majority of FY22 and IF the housing market stays fairly strong despite the draconian tax measures of the Labour Govt then we might see it gradually head up over the next year or so towards the brokers average 12 month target price of $1.68.

I think Earl has so much work to do fixing MET's business it'll keep him busy for many years.

[bottomfeeder]

Panda just so you get an idea of a regular week in a rest home this one Arvida in Christchurch, but i am sure Oceania is similar.
My 93yr old Mother plays cards, word games, crafts, and generally goes on one outing each week, sometimes to a restaurant for lunch, or to a show or just a scenic drive and an ice cream stop. Has the option of yoga, exercise class, bowls and going shopping, they also have entertainers in. Occasionally they have celebration parties ie high tea for the queens birthday. BBQ's and picnics.
As well as still being able to drive herself she is mentally sharp.
I believe that a lot of this is to do with the stimulation that she has both with staff and residents.
She is receiving a lot more stimulation than when she was in her own house despite many visitors and visits out, and good neighbours. Her mental health and physical health are better.
Like Just a Kiwi said, she knows death is a part of life, and perhaps being in a retirement village, also takes away some of the fear, there is a revolving door of new residents coming in and residents passing on. She sees the tolerance and help for those that are unable to physically or mentally interact, and knows if or when she gets to that stage she will be cared for and respected.
There is a constant of conversations and laughter, a thing she had lost with people of her own age as her friends had passed away.
Panda-NZ you mentioned about having young people around, she meets and interacts with more young people now than before, from pre school age groups to young staff.
It took my Mum quite a long time to consider moving into a village, now she recommends it to everybody.
We don't care about capital gain on her apartment or how long it takes to be paid back, all we care about is that she feels valued as a resident.

She is very lucky. Many her age cant walk, are incontinent and lack a few brain cells. Watching someone age like that is depressing and deeply sorrowful. May the force remain with her.

[Beagle]

Reality check, sorry to be dogmatic but this is really concerning and I fear its never going to end. Nurses striking today wanting a MASSIVE 17% pay increase, (for goodness sake) hard on the back of a multi year accord reached several years ago whereby they have enjoyed several years of wage increases well and truly above the rate of inflation. If they're successful next will come the pay relativity claims from all levels of caregivers and after that cleaners and administration staff.
https://peoplesdispatch.org/2021/06/08/30000-nurses-prepare-for-strike-action-in-new-zealand/ Basically they want danger money for working with the risk of Covid and its hard to come up with a credible reason why they shouldn't get it, however there are serious implications for high late stage care providers if annual wage cost inflation is going to accelerate from ~ 8% per annum to anything like 17% per annum and Govt funding increase stays in the 2-3% per annum range.

Might be interesting to question the team at the annual meeting about where this increasing imbalance between cost and funding for staff is at right now and what their plans are to mitigate this pressure going forward.

[bottomfeeder]

Reality check, sorry to be dogmatic but this is really concerning and I fear its never going to end. Nurses striking today wanting a MASSIVE 17% pay increase, (for goodness sake) hard on the back of a multi year accord reached several years ago whereby they have enjoyed several years of wage increases well and truly above the rate of inflation. If they're successful next will come the pay relativity claims from all levels of caregivers and after that cleaners and administration staff.
https://peoplesdispatch.org/2021/06/08/30000-nurses-prepare-for-strike-action-in-new-zealand/ Basically they want danger money for working with the risk of Covid and its hard to come up with a credible reason why they shouldn't get it, however there are serious implications for high late stage care providers if annual wage cost inflation is going to accelerate from ~ 8% per annum to anything like 17% per annum and Govt funding increase stays in the 2-3% per annum range.

Might be interesting to question the team at the annual meeting about where this increasing imbalance between cost and funding for staff is at right now and what their plans are to mitigate this pressure going forward.

Wages Push Inflation is a recognised economic principle. When wages go up, businesses have to charge more for their goods and services. If nurses receive more than the inflation rate as an increase, it creates more inflationary pressures in the economy. I can see rampant inflation, with the only result is higher interest rates.

[Panda-NZ-]

There are little efficiencies to be gained unlike every other industry. Maybe more workers per person will be needed when second-tier "cures" come onto the market which extend things for only a few months but do not deliver gains in function or health.

[Beagle]

Wages Push Inflation is a recognised economic principle. When wages go up, businesses have to charge more for their goods and services. If nurses receive more than the inflation rate as an increase, it creates more inflationary pressures in the economy. I can see rampant inflation, with the only result is higher interest rates.

A real worry, good example, this boat was $249,000 in February, now $279,000 https://www.profileboats.com/models/profile-boats-800hw/ 12% cost increase in just 4 months !

My understanding is they're having to pay a lot more for skilled welders and boat builders, higher aluminum sheet prices and much higher freight costs. Trouble is OCA can't pass on price increases like this to its customers, whereas the boat manufacturers have rampant demand AND can and are passing on the full cost increase and probably a bit more for good measure.

[percy]

A real worry, good example, this boat was $249,000 in February, now $279,000 https://www.profileboats.com/models/profile-boats-800hw/

Must be putting the cost of per fish caught over the $1,000 mark.>.>>..lol.

[Beagle]

Must be putting the cost of per fish caught over the $1,000 mark.>.>>..lol.

LOL $800 a kilo for snapper at Westhaven marina was the standing joke years ago when I had a boat berthed there, probably is $1,000 a kilo now :)

[Ferg]

Wages Push Inflation is a recognised economic principle. When wages go up, businesses have to charge more for their goods and services. If nurses receive more than the inflation rate as an increase, it creates more inflationary pressures in the economy. I can see rampant inflation, with the only result is higher interest rates.

One of my clients pushed through a substantial price increase last week. We have already started work on the next one which will come within the next 6 months. Our increase with one merchant was delayed a week due to a backlog of other supplier price increases. Inflation is coming.

[winner69]

A real worry, good example, this boat was $249,000 in February, now $279,000 https://www.profileboats.com/models/profile-boats-800hw/ 12% cost increase in just 4 months !

My understanding is they're having to pay a lot more for skilled welders and boat builders, higher aluminum sheet prices and much higher freight costs. Trouble is OCA can't pass on price increases like this to its customers, whereas the boat manufacturers have rampant demand AND can and are passing on the full cost increase and probably a bit more for good measure.

Jeez .....hat ever was needed to recover increases surely the market price should be minimum of $299,000

Whose going to worry about that extra 20k

[Habits]

Jeez .....hat ever was needed to recover increases surely the market price should be minimum of $299,000

Whose going to worry about that extra 20k

You could get a nice ocean-going fishing boat through the police auctions pretty soon

[Habits]

Along with the nurses wage push and the construction cost increases, Retirement Commissioner Jane Wrightson is sinking her teeth into a juicy bit of OCA profit

"Wrightson, Consumer NZ, the Retirement Village Residents Association, the Law Society and many others are making louder calls for a review of the Retirement Villages Act 2003."

Sorry to say this but the sector will lag its previous good performance imo

[oldtech]

A real worry, good example, this boat was $249,000 in February, now $279,000 https://www.profileboats.com/models/profile-boats-800hw/ 12% cost increase in just 4 months !

Think that's expensive, wait until they have to replace that Yamaha or Mercury 350 HP motor with an electric one, in order to meet the Climate Change Commission requirements. :p

[winner69]

Oceania ASM next week

Seems no live coverage online .....physical meeting only :t_down:

Poor show when going online seems pretty easy to do these days

One way of avoiding most shareholders ...and tricky questions.

[Beagle]

I might go along and might ask and awkward question or two.

[Dotbond]

I might go along and might ask and awkward question or two.
Please do, on behalf of those of us who live in the deep south, and else where that's not near Auckland. Forever grateful for you efforts and contribution Mr B.

Trev

[winner69]

I might go along and might ask and awkward question or two.

Even more reasons why there should be live coverage ........so we can see the directors squirm at questioning by a dog with a bone.

“I’ll get Brent to answer that one’ says The Chair :eek2:

Or

‘Directors and management are available after the meeting to discuss such matters’. :t_down:

[Maverick]

Just one small point lads, the meeting isn't this week , it's the following Thursday.
Don't want Beagle showing up for the free sandwiches and getting turned away.....sad dog!
See you there mate.

[bottomfeeder]

All rest homes are revising their prices as from 1 July. Government subsidies will also be revised. Wages increases should be factored into the new charges.

[Beagle]

Even more reasons why there should be live coverage ........so we can see the directors squirm at questioning by a dog with a bone.

“I’ll get Brent to answer that one’ says The Chair :eek2:

Or

‘Directors and management are available after the meeting to discuss such matters’. :t_down:

Remember the time I barked loud and clear that I was going to the Turners annual meeting and was really fired up and ready to chew their heads off...Chairman was so scared he made some lame excuse and didn't even turn up lol Talk about a dog with a mission and no bone to chew on...I gnawed my fingernails to the bone that day lol
Nothing quite so dramatic to bark about here and of course all is forgiven with Turners seeing as they are filling my dog bowl up so well these days :D

[Beagle]

remove double post.

[aperitif]

Sold my profits from OCA this morning and rotated them into a2. Held since July 2020. Still holding a decent amount and my preferred company in this sector by some margin.

[Old mate]

A2 your brave:t_up:

[Beagle]

The crafty Beagle always makes accurate forward diary notes of when and where free sausage rolls are on offer and has never been known to get the date wrong yet :D

[Benny1]

Last time I went to Eden Park for an ASM they had bloody nice doughnuts! Think it was FRE... Worth going to just for them!Will go along to hopefully to taste test a couple more

[Beagle]

Keep an eye out for Maverick and I.

Getting FOMO so bought some more today...hoping my super long range food sniffer is still working properly and this is not a bout of irrational exuberance...

Must be getting close to fully priced now....but then again...maybe they will tell us at the annual meeting that their build rate next year is well over 250 units ?...or maybe they don't know yet...or maybe Brent has another acquisition in mind to be announced soon ?

Chart looks very bullish now...nice clean break above 100 day MA, suggesting buying even more is a good idea !

[winner69]

Not likely to get a hint as to what half year earnings are likely to be are we?

Nearly half way through H1

Guaranteed to be a boring affair I reckon .... lots of pictures we've seen before and the same words

You guys could give them a standing ovation for getting a through a tough year in fine fettle .... maybe not as Synlait shareholders gave board and management one a few years ago.

[Joh13]

All rest homes are revising their prices as from 1 July. Government subsidies will also be revised. Wages increases should be factored into the new charges.

Hi Bottomfeeder, Thanks for the reminder...

For reference these were the 2020 changes.

Residential Care Subsidy changes
On 1 July 2020, some key annual changes to the Residential Care Subsidy came into effect.
If you need long-term residential care in a rest home, you may now qualify for the Residential Care Subsidy. The asset thresholds have increased to:

$236,336 for a single person
$236,336 for a couple where both partners are in long-term residential care
$236,336 for a couple where one person is in long-term residential care, including the value of their house and car
$129,423 for a couple where one partner is in long-term residential care, not including the combined value of their house and car (the house is only exempt when it is the main place where your partner who is not in care, or a dependent child, lives).

The income-from-assets exemptions have increased to:

$1,027 for a single person
$2,054 for a couple who are both in long-term residential care
$3,081 for a couple where one partner is in long-term residential care.

Your assets and income will be assessed by Work and Income. All other eligibility is assessed by the Ministry of Health.

There is also a helpful flow chart that outlines what residents can expect to pay for each of their own situations.

https://cffc-assets-prod.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/public/Uploads/Retirement-Villages/Resources/Care-pathways-for-retirement-village-residents-diagram-May-2017.pdf

Looking forward to hearing about the ASM... really should be live streamed, unfortunately I can't make it to Auckland.

Thanks to those going along, I'm looking forward to the feedback.

[Beagle]

Not likely to get a hint as to what half year earnings are likely to be are we?

Nearly half way through H1

Guaranteed to be a boring affair I reckon .... lots of pictures we've seen before and the same words

You guys could give them a standing ovation for getting a through a tough year in fine fettle .... maybe not as Synlait shareholders gave board and management one a few years ago.

Always good to attend these sort of events. You never know what little nuggets of gold might be dropped during off the record discussions with senior management or directors after the official proceedings have concluded. If nothing else you get more clarity on where the company is at. For the life of me I cannot recall ever attending an annual shareholders meeting and coming away thinking my time was wasted, not even once.

[BlackPeter]

Ah well, given that we used this thread to beat up the governments attempts to curb house price inflation, we can use it as well to check how their much feared and bedeviled methods actually work:

12608Newest ANZ REINZ report on the housing market is out. They use for the month to month inflation the word "unprecedented", I suppose this must be good for the OCA party.

Sales numbers (not prices) however dropping - take care?

[Beagle]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ce1fd700bf20400017d3a30/t/60c7cfb63fd8004686a2308a/1623707617072/REINZ+Monthly+Property+Report+-+May+2021.pdf

Latest REINZ stat's are just out. Highlights. No slow down in property prices due to Govt tax changes. National median price up 1.9% in May 2021 v April 2021.
Bigger picture is the National median is up a whopping 32.3% in May 2021 v May 2020, fastest rate of house price growth ever !
These dramatically higher figures will flow through to asking and resale prices of OCA units over time. OCA's share price is closest to NAV of any in the sector.
Despite the handicap of wages rising at much higher than Govt funding increases I am feeling more comfortable about OCA's medium and long term prospects now that we have seen the radical Govt tax socialism having little impact.

Disc: Bought a few more this morning.

[TobyPascoe92]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ce1fd700bf20400017d3a30/t/60c7cfb63fd8004686a2308a/1623707617072/REINZ+Monthly+Property+Report+-+May+2021.pdf

Latest REINZ stat's are just out. Highlights. No slow down in property prices due to Govt tax changes. National median price up 1.9% in May 2021 v April 2021.
Bigger picture is the National median is up a whopping 32.3% in May 2021 v May 2020, fastest rate of house price growth ever !
These dramatically higher figures will flow through to asking and resale prices of OCA units over time. OCA's share price is closest to NAV of any in the sector.
Despite the handicap of wages rising at much higher than Govt funding increases I am feeling more comfortable about OCA's medium and long term prospects now that we have seen the radical Govt tax socialism having little impact.

Disc: Bought a few more this morning.

Do need to keep some context though about that 32.3% increase year on year. That figure goes back to May 2020 where the NZ median price was at its lowest point in the "Covid Aftermath". If you go back one month further to April 2020, it brings the 13 month increase to 20.6%. The most interesting stats are going to be July 2020 - 2021 & August 2020 - 2021. This is where the market started its boom cycle. If there are large year on year increases from there, there is no way and no excuse that OCA can't be re-pricing their stock inline with the market.

[Bjauck]

Ah well, given that we used this thread to beat up the governments attempts to curb house price inflation, we can use it as well to check how their much feared and bedeviled methods actually work:

12608Newest ANZ REINZ report on the housing market is out. They use for the month to month inflation the word "unprecedented", I suppose this must be good for the OCA party.

Sales numbers (not prices) however dropping - take care? OCA is now my largest shareholding but I am nervous for the time when the music will stop at the residential land investment party. When will investment funds stop pouring into the housing vortex?

[RTM]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ce1fd700bf20400017d3a30/t/60c7cfb63fd8004686a2308a/1623707617072/REINZ+Monthly+Property+Report+-+May+2021.pdf

Latest REINZ stat's are just out. Highlights. No slow down in property prices due to Govt tax changes. National median price up 1.9% in May 2021 v April 2021.
Bigger picture is the National median is up a whopping 32.3% in May 2021 v May 2020, fastest rate of house price growth ever !
These dramatically higher figures will flow through to asking and resale prices of OCA units over time. OCA's share price is closest to NAV of any in the sector.
Despite the handicap of wages rising at much higher than Govt funding increases I am feeling more comfortable about OCA's medium and long term prospects now that we have seen the radical Govt tax socialism having little impact.

Disc: Bought a few more this morning.

Jacinda needs to get on top of the housing thing...otherwise its curtains for her Government. IMO this is the single biggest issue they face. Don't discount additional measures should the ones in play not gain more traction. This might not be obvious for a bit longer. We went to an open house a couple of weekends ago. We were the only ones there. The agent said the market had definitely pulled back.
Disc: Holding....but at a lower % of Portfolio.

[RTM]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ce1fd700bf20400017d3a30/t/60c7cfb63fd8004686a2308a/1623707617072/REINZ+Monthly+Property+Report+-+May+2021.pdf

Latest REINZ stat's are just out. Highlights. No slow down in property prices due to Govt tax changes. National median price up 1.9% in May 2021 v April 2021.
Bigger picture is the National median is up a whopping 32.3% in May 2021 v May 2020, fastest rate of house price growth ever !
These dramatically higher figures will flow through to asking and resale prices of OCA units over time. OCA's share price is closest to NAV of any in the sector.
Despite the handicap of wages rising at much higher than Govt funding increases I am feeling more comfortable about OCA's medium and long term prospects now that we have seen the radical Govt tax socialism having little impact.

Disc: Bought a few more this morning.

Double dipping

[justakiwi]

The housing crisis has been ongoing, and getting worse, for years. Another one of those issues neither government has ever addressed or solved. It’s time whichever government happens to be in power, started thinking outside the square. There are many people who would be happy living in some version of a tiny house. You only have to look at the semi-permanents currently living in holiday parks, like me. We are not all here because we are poor. We have chosen this lifestyle because it suits us better and we don’t need or want the stress and cost of living alone in a 2,3,4 bedroom house. If government and local councils put their heads together, they could provide alternative housing for people like this, and free up traditional housing for families. At a significantly lower cost than anything they are doing or proposing now. Other countries have successfully done this. There is no reason why we can’t do the same.


Jacinda needs to get on top of the housing thing...otherwise its curtains for her Government. IMO this is the single biggest issue they face. Don't discount additional measures should the ones in play not gain more traction. This might not be obvious for a bit longer. We went to an open house a couple of weekends ago. We were the only ones there. The agent said the market had definitely pulled back.
Disc: Holding....but at a lower % of Portfolio.

[James108]

I am surprised house prices reached a record in April. For a few reasons:

More houses are now being built than in a very long time. The Auckland Unitary Plan is actually doing a great job at increasing density. Although has driven up the cost of land a lot, but that is the price you pay for more density.

Immigration is very low and looks like will be quite low into 2022.

Housing supply is now eating into excess demand at pace.

Long term interest rates are now rising, albeit 1 year rates falling still.

Existing houses now significantly less attractive to investors due to tax changes.

I can't help but feel that house price inflation cannot last much longer maybe the change will occur if/when 1 year interest rates start increasing. Still hold a lot of Summerset and Oceania but wouldn't be upset if house prices fell.

[Greekwatchdog]

Its simply supply demand. If no one is selling then no one can buy. New House demand is going crazy as per this yesterday in Chch. https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/buying/125436119/clamour-crashes-site-as-wouldbe-buyers-snap-up-100plus-sections-in-minutes

[Greekwatchdog]

And this just off the press. https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/auckland-property-prices-hit-record-high-upward-trend-continues-around-country

[winner69]

Heard one political commentator say this government should apologise on behalf of governments over the years to NZers (esp those struggling to get a home) for failing to address the housing issues in NZ

Apologies the in thing I’m told

[Zaphod]

Heard one political commentator say this government should apologise on behalf of governments over the years to NZers (esp those struggling to get a home) for failing to address the housing issues in NZ

We're the ones who are willfully creating the issue, and the ones who would also vote out any government that attempted to meaningfully intervene. Maybe we should be apologising to them for a change? Nah.


Apologies the in thing I’m told

Yes, that's part of the cultural meme of the 2020's unfortunately!

[Baa_Baa]

I'm annoyed that the ASM will not be online Live Webcast this year. Why not? If you want an online webcast too, send an email to enquiry@oceaniahealthcare.co.nz

:t_down:

[winner69]

Even the Gold Standard HPI is up 29.8% over the last 12 months

They say retirement sector share prices lag HPI by a few quarters

So this is what the OCA share price chart will look like as it rockets past $2 before years end

[justakiwi]

I emailed them two days ago but have not yet had a reply.


I'm annoyed that the ASM will not be online Live Webcast this year. Why not? If you want an online webcast too, send an email to enquiry@oceaniahealthcare.co.nz

:t_down:

[Bjauck]

We're the ones who are willfully creating the issue, and the ones who would also vote out any government that attempted to meaningfully intervene. Maybe we should be apologising to them for a change? Nah.

Yes, that's part of the cultural meme of the 2020's unfortunately!Apologies are employed as lip service to pacify some groups and to avoid meaningful action on the issue which may upset vested interests. The main aim is to remain on the Treasury benches?

[Panda-NZ-]

I can't help but feel that house price inflation cannot last much longer maybe the change will occur if/when 1 year interest rates start increasing. Still hold a lot of Summerset and Oceania but wouldn't be upset if house prices fell.

Is Rym a better bet? I dont like being lumped with overly expensive care costs.

There should be a fund which is focused on residential housing without the anchor of the above.
Though.... I suppose the long term revenue stream makes up for it.

[winner69]

I'm annoyed that the ASM will not be online Live Webcast this year. Why not? If you want an online webcast too, send an email to enquiry@oceaniahealthcare.co.nz

:t_down:

I sent my dismay to investor@oceaniahealthcare.co.nz and copied Anna Thorburn in

[James108]

Is Rym a better bet? I dont like being lumped with overly expensive care costs.

There should be a fund which is focused on residential housing without the anchor of the above.
Though.... I suppose the long term revenue stream makes up for it.

Haven't compared in a while but whenever I have in the past I have thought Rym was the least attractive operator to own.

[Joh13]

Seems the SP has climbed recently on decent volume... is it getting re-rated or is there something going on behind the scenes hmmmmm.

The volume has mostly come in the later part of the day.

[Beagle]

Haven't compared in a while but whenever I have in the past I have thought Rym was the least attractive operator to own.

RYM has badly under performed the others and the NZX 50 in recent years and is still very, very expensive on any comparative metrics.

[Maverick]

Yeah Joh , that's got my curiosity too.
Seems the last few weeks we've gone from very significant off market trades and small on market trades to this pattern of the last few weeks being consistent and unabating small trades only done on market.(very little off market)
And it only really gets cranking after lunch.
From this pattern it would seem that a rerating has occurred with the mum and dad Aussy investors??? Of course that's not true , buggered if I know.
But it's nice to see the little ol` company being popular for a change regardless of whoever it is wanting in.

Are there any traders out there with some theory to fit this pattern?

[James108]

RYM has badly under performed the others and the NZX 50 in recent years and is still very, very expensive on any comparative metrics.

Not to mention they are the largest operator so achieving earnings growth is quite a bit harder.

[bottomfeeder]

Over 1 and half mill changed hands just at closing. I see a takeover coming at 1.60 maybe. Something is up. Just waiting for the notice to see who it is.

[Baa_Baa]

Over 1 and half mill changed hands just at closing. I see a takeover coming at 1.60 maybe. Something is up. Just waiting for the notice to see who it is.

Total volume was 2.9m shares traded. I think that's about 0.4% of shares on issue, although that's up on average volume of about 888k shares, it's still no big deal really, probably just some insto buying some more for their clients (like Forbar who currently pitch it at TP $1.80).

If it was a 2%, 5% move or more I'd be wondering. What makes you think a T/O is coming?

[winner69]

Over 1 and half mill changed hands just at closing. I see a takeover coming at 1.60 maybe. Something is up. Just waiting for the notice to see who it is.

Strong buying across retirement sector today (ARV included)

Property prices report maybe?

[Beagle]

Agents starved for listings https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-great-property-drought-agents-buyers-starved-for-choice-after-289-listings-drop/KHOXS5GAOZL2IJNXEV4F7MLGBE/

[winner69]

Total volume was 2.9m shares traded. I think that's about 0.4% of shares on issue, although that's up on average volume of about 888k shares, it's still no big deal really, probably just some insto buying some more for their clients (like Forbar who currently pitch it at TP $1.80).

If it was a 2%, 5% move or more I'd be wondering. What makes you think a T/O is coming?

Bottomfeeder maybe wanting out and hoping for a takeover to give him that 20% bonus

[calledone]

Over 1 and half mill changed hands just at closing. I see a takeover coming at 1.60 maybe. Something is up. Just waiting for the notice to see who it is.

I think that was some index balancing at close. Same thing happened with many other stocks today.

[mike2020]

And he suggested 1.60 as a TO price? I think it's possible we will finish this week back at 1.60

[Beagle]

Talk of a takeover is nothing but idle speculation. Wouldn't fly at $1.60 in my opinion. I would hope Liz and other directors would tell EQT and MET to "go away" if they came knocking at the door with one of their highway robbery scams, opps sorry, scheme implementation agreements, and tell them, if you want the shares buy them on market like anyone else.

[tim23]

Talk of a takeover is nothing but idle speculation. Wouldn't fly at $1.60 in my opinion. I would hope Liz and other directors would tell EQT and MET to "go away" if they came knocking at the door with one of their highway robbery scams, opps sorry, scheme implementation agreements, and tell them, if you want the shares buy them on market like anyone else.

Agree need to be $1.90+

[Beagle]

Yeap agreed Tim, at least $1.90 as a premium for control and the synergies involved.
All the drunk monkey's have woken up and this is an emphatic BUY according to all the professional analysts.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

[mike2020]

I don't think either of you played monopoly as a kid. If you want the set you REALLY have to pay. If the market really is forward looking you are giving it away cheap. Also, do we really want one less listed company?

[Beagle]

I think the point is EQT used Covid to "cheat" shareholders out of MET. Nobody wants to see one less listed company especially if there's highway robbery involved again.

[bottomfeeder]

Its not takeover at any price, its takeover at my price. One matter which really points to something is that the SP rose dramatically since we went ex div. That points to someone loading up and trying to hide it. Talk about a takeover is idle speculation, perhaps you should go on the Sky TV thread, that takeover talk is idle speculation, this is a bit more substantive. Oh well it wont be long something is going to show sooner or later.

[Joh13]

Hi all, here’s an email from OCAs corporate development manager.

Looks like there will be a live stream.

Thank you for your email.

Apologies for the delayed response, there will be a live stream of the event which we are organising at the moment.
Once we have the link available we will announce it to the market and I'll send you an email just in case you miss the announcement.

However, just so you are aware, the AGM will not be a virtual event for the purposes of voting.
We had a virtual AGM last year due to circumstances surrounding COVID but we understand the technology is somewhat unreliable.
Unfortunately we are aware of other companies being impacted to the level that the AGM was cut short and investors were unable to vote.

We would rather not take this risk and as a result will be holding an in person AGM this year.

[Beagle]

Volumes have been picking up and are certainly well above average since late May. The share price has been recovering nicely, but is still below the peak of $1.60 in early February and only 7 cents above where it started the year at $1.45.
I guess people will read into that what they want to see. As far as I am concerned I am pleased to be back on board in a more meaningful way @ 6% portfolio allocation which feels spot on the mark as a sensible allocation is a well diversified portfolio as far as I am concerned and happy to see where this goes long term.

[Bjauck]

Agree need to be $1.90+ However this is NZ, and it wouldn't be the first good company to be sold away to overseas buyers for a song, as we need ever greater amounts to be put back into housing. I hope this time will be different too.

[Curly]

Simply Wall St are saying OCA are currently 36.1% below fair market value. That puts them at approx $2.05. Good things coming one expects. Simply Wall St rarely wrong.

[justakiwi]

Really????


Simply Wall St rarely wrong.

[dabsman]

Simply Wall St are saying OCA are currently 36.1% below fair market value. That puts them at approx $2.05. Good things coming one expects. Simply Wall St rarely wrong.

I'm putting OCA fair value around $1.60 but I am expecting $2 in the next 12 months. I am regularly wrong thou

[buddha stix]

Simply Wall St are saying OCA are currently 36.1% below fair market value. That puts them at approx $2.05. Good things coming one expects. Simply Wall St rarely wrong.

Simply Wall St. currently have Fair Value of OCA at $2.38 (36.1 % above recorded trading price of $1.52)

[BlackPeter]

Simply Wall St are saying OCA are currently 36.1% below fair market value. That puts them at approx $2.05. Good things coming one expects. Simply Wall St rarely wrong.

You are kidding, aren't you?

[FatTed]

You are kidding, aren't you?

SWS also have HLG Fair value @ $34.27 (that would be nice!)

[tommy_d]

I am pleased to be back on board in a more meaningful way @ 6% portfolio allocation which feels spot on the mark as a sensible allocation is a well diversified portfolio as far as I am concerned and happy to see where this goes long term.
i'm struggling with where OCA has landed as a % portfolio allocation, I blame buying a bunch in may last year and then doubling down with a combo of buys just before the capital raise, and then getting some allocation through that too. Haven't sold any, my $1.97 offer never went anywhere.
25% of my portfolio right now. A lot more than 6%. Ugh, eggs and baskets - but hard to sell when I feel that it's still undervalued. Won't be buying any more. Confused about selling something that I think is undervalued, concerned about risk.

[Beagle]

i'm struggling with where OCA has landed as a % portfolio allocation, I blame buying a bunch in may last year and then doubling down with a combo of buys just before the capital raise, and then getting some allocation through that too. Haven't sold any, my $1.97 offer never went anywhere.
25% of my portfolio right now. A lot more than 6%. Ugh, eggs and baskets - but hard to sell when I feel that it's still undervalued. Won't be buying any more. Confused about selling something that I think is undervalued, concerned about risk.

Everyone has a different appetite for risk. What is right for someone like me near retirement may be too conservative for someone quite young.
The "sleep test" is the acid test in my opinion. If something is keeping you up at night then its probably your intuition telling you that you have a problem that needs fixing.

[thegreatestben]

Beagle, coming from my early 30’s I’m running a much higher concentration. I’ve taken some perspective from various users on here to pick my play and I can say there was a time when my play kept me up at night and my dentist will probably have words with me but at my particular position a bit more risk is reasonable and I think you have a sound position on oca. If I take a hit it will be a measured decision and I will likely take it on the chin and live to fight another day.

[tommy_d]

Everyone has a different appetite for risk. What is right for someone like me near retirement may be too conservative for someone quite young.
The "sleep test" is the acid test in my opinion. If something is keeping you up at night then its probably your intuition telling you that you have a problem that needs fixing.

great post, and thank you. No lost sleep, considered buying more a couple of weeks ago - only thing stopping me was that i felt like i had enough. I just placed a small sell order at $1.97 again :)

[Beagle]

Early 30's is a great time of life to take moderately aggressive investment positions that concentrate on high capital growth over the long run. With more than 30 years to go before retirement there's plenty of opportunity to recover if you get "a haircut".

[Panda-NZ-]

Early 30's is a great time of life to take moderately aggressive investment positions that concentrate on high capital growth over the long run. With more than 30 years to go before retirement there's plenty of opportunity to recover if you get "a haircut".

Ahem, "tqqq" and the other leveraged funds.:)

[tim23]

i'm struggling with where OCA has landed as a % portfolio allocation, I blame buying a bunch in may last year and then doubling down with a combo of buys just before the capital raise, and then getting some allocation through that too. Haven't sold any, my $1.97 offer never went anywhere.
25% of my portfolio right now. A lot more than 6%. Ugh, eggs and baskets - but hard to sell when I feel that it's still undervalued. Won't be buying any more. Confused about selling something that I think is undervalued, concerned about risk.

What about the DRP are you in that?

[percy]

Everyone has a different appetite for risk. What is right for someone like me near retirement may be too conservative for someone quite young.
The "sleep test" is the acid test in my opinion. If something is keeping you up at night then its probably your intuition telling you that you have a problem that needs fixing.

Exactly right.!

[Gerald]

The annual number of new homes consented in the year ended January 2021 was 39,881, up 5.8 percent from the year ended January 2020, Stats NZ said today.
The all-time high for any 12-month period was 40,025 in the year ended February 1974, which is 144 more than the current year-ended figure.

12619
12620

Record supply coming, almost nil population growth, unsustainable price gains surely make it a little risky to be backing up the truck like you guys for a company with a disappointing history that is tied at the hip to house prices?

[Snow Leopard]

The annual number of new homes consented in the year ended January 2021 was 39,881, up 5.8 percent from the year ended January 2020, Stats NZ said today.
The all-time high for any 12-month period was 40,025 in the year ended February 1974, which is 144 more than the current year-ended figure.

12619
12620

Record supply coming, almost nil population growth, unsustainable price gains surely make it a little risky to be backing up the truck like you guys for a company with a disapointing history that is tied at the hip to house prices?

You spelled disappointing incorrectly but your table looks very pretty.

Still a few cents till fair value in my opinion.

[Biscuit]

The annual number of new homes consented in the year ended January 2021 was 39,881, up 5.8 percent from the year ended January 2020, Stats NZ said today.
The all-time high for any 12-month period was 40,025 in the year ended February 1974, which is 144 more than the current year-ended figure.

12619
12620

Record supply coming, almost nil population growth, unsustainable price gains surely make it a little risky to be backing up the truck like you guys for a company with a disappointing history that is tied at the hip to house prices?

Last edited by Gerald; Today at 12:51 AM. Reason: Got an edication



"edication" is either almost a pun (congratulations), a humorous, self-deprecating comment or an incorrect spelling of "education". Annoyingly, I cannot tell which one.

[Brain]

The annual number of new homes consented in the year ended January 2021 was 39,881, up 5.8 percent from the year ended January 2020, Stats NZ said today.
The all-time high for any 12-month period was 40,025 in the year ended February 1974, which is 144 more than the current year-ended figure.

12619
12620

Record supply coming, almost nil population growth, unsustainable price gains surely make it a little risky to be backing up the truck like you guys for a company with a disappointing history that is tied at the hip to house prices?

The housing stock and population was a lot less in 1974 so percentage wise so we are way off an all time high.

[mike2020]

great post, and thank you. No lost sleep, considered buying more a couple of weeks ago - only thing stopping me was that i felt like i had enough. I just placed a small sell order at $1.97 again :)

A sell order at $1.97 is no sell order at all, if you saw greater opportunity elsewhere you would take market price. And 25% is not crazy with a bricks and mortar type company if you have plenty of time up your sleeve, small ups and downs won't matter much.

[fish]

The annual number of new homes consented in the year ended January 2021 was 39,881, up 5.8 percent from the year ended January 2020, Stats NZ said today.
The all-time high for any 12-month period was 40,025 in the year ended February 1974, which is 144 more than the current year-ended figure.


Record supply coming, almost nil population growth, unsustainable price gains surely make it a little risky to be backing up the truck like you guys for a company with a disappointing history that is tied at the hip to house prices?

In my opinion population growth does not equate to housing demand-babies do not buy houses .
Supply is increasing but house prices have risen 29% in the past year so if the company is tied at the hip to house prices is that not exciting ?
When units are resold will not massive profits be made?

[artemis]

The annual number of new homes consented in the year ended January 2021 was 39,881, up 5.8 percent from the year ended January 2020, Stats NZ said today. The all-time high for any 12-month period was 40,025 in the year ended February 1974, which is 144 more than the current year-ended figure.......

Can't live in a consent and it is not uncommon for projects to be delayed or cancelled. Specially higher density developments where the bank is not happy with off the plan sales or due to lack of construction capacity. Finance Minister seems to have plenty of taxpayer money for social housing though.

[Ohdoyle]

So a reversal of the last weeks trade. Some serious volume on a drop..... hard to make head or tails of.

[850man]

Crikey what happened there? End of day, over 5M shares and down 4%!

[Beagle]

NZX50 rebalancing occurred at close of trade but like others I was very surprised by the weight of selling pressure. Maybe Australian institutions rebalancing ?

[dubya]

Crikey what happened there? End of day, over 5M shares and down 4%!

Yeah.....big sell orders at the close.

12623

[Ohdoyle]

Still struggling to understand reballances..... end of the day all that matters is money in and money out of the index surely?

Why has oca been affected so dramatically

[winner69]

Takeover that was telling us about is off ....potential acquirer who had been accumulating threw in the towel :p:mellow::sleep::(:eek2::t_down:

[850man]

Takeover that was telling us about is off ....potential acquirer who had been accumulating threw in the towel :p:mellow::sleep::(:eek2::t_down:

Speculation or fact?

[winner69]

Speculation or fact?

Bottomfeeder was speculating so I unspectulating

[winner69]

NZX50 rebalancing occurred at close of trade but like others I was very surprised by the weight of selling pressure. Maybe Australian institutions rebalancing ?

Volume too high just to be rebalancing I would say

What else?

[Beagle]

Volume too high just to be rebalancing I would say

What else?

Maybe Maverick decided to sell out lol (joke).

[Snow Leopard]

There will be:
Strong recovery on Monday;
Slight retracement Tuesday when we all sell our $1.40 DRP shares;
Close over $1.60 on Friday.

Snow Leopard Dreams
12624

18 snow leopard pictures (http://photographyblogger.net/18-pictures-of-snow-leopards-by-tambako-the-jaguar/)

http://photographyblogger.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Snow-Leopard-1.jpg
http://photographyblogger.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Snow-Leopard-1.jpg
https://external-preview.redd.it/lynOvqPUl25raYX2YV2lZOiRX-5qqKokV54kTJIyQJA.jpg

[bottomfeeder]

Bottomfeeder was speculating so I unspectulating

Oh ye of little faith. It is the classic "Pump and Dump" When conducting a takeover, you want to get the initial shares as cheap as possible. If you buy continuously the price keeps increasing. But if all of a sudden you withdraw demand, or even sell, that brings the price back quickly. You have to work with that people. After all as small investors we dont control the market we have to work within, what we think the large players are doing. I sold 10 k at $1.53 an few days ago, and have just bought back the same number at $1.44 today. Thats better than getting a dividend. Same shares back again. Of course I dont have that much confidence so fully in my theory to put all of my holding into this pattern, but every dollar counts. Keep cunning guys, and try and keep one step ahead of the big boys, they are not as smart as they think they are.

[Beagle]

Sounds great. Lets all cuddle a big cat, what could possibly go wrong :D...as long as the cat doesn't hit the factory reset button :eek2: we should be all good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75wnlpbOi_k

[bottomfeeder]

Sounds great. Lets all cuddle a big cat, what could possibly go wrong :D...as long as the cat doesn't hit the factory reset button :eek2: we should be all good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75wnlpbOi_k

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, what does that all mean. Friday night and I have had a bacardi and lime. So getting a bit aggressive. Its all a clever plan to bamboozle the shareholders who the smarter asses think they are just too clever for. There will rarely be a continuous upward SP, when someone is in takeover mode, or establishing a large position. So you have to try and judge the pump and dump, as best you can.

[Beagle]

Yeah it was a bit random...sorry about that. The big cat was meant as a metaphor for the big institutions hopefully playing nice with us mere mortals but they certainly bit a chunk out this little doggie today. Back to OCA....hopefully normal "service" will resume on Monday.

[Maverick]

Maybe Maverick decided to sell out lol (joke).
All this talk of diversification lately , I decided to take a just a few off the table (yeah right)

[Baa_Baa]

There will be:
Strong recovery on Monday;
Slight retracement Tuesday when we all sell our $1.40 DRP shares;
Close over $1.60 on Friday.

Snow Leopard Dreams
https://external-preview.redd.it/lynOvqPUl25raYX2YV2lZOiRX-5qqKokV54kTJIyQJA.jpg

Sounds like irrational emotional attachment, three large words, to me :p

[tommy_d]

What about the DRP are you in that?

i'm holding through sharesies, don't think that's an option - will check though

[Maverick]

I've got absolutely no idea on why these big trades get done in such a hurry when they can be done over a few weeks at a better price.

This is interesting, On the 29th of May 2020 the NZX was kept open an extra 1/2 hour so the big boys could rebalance their holdings. That day was a Friday too.
ARV Turnover was flat, SP stayed flat. (poor ol` ARV never seems to get any attention)
SUM turnover went up 4x and the SP stayed flat.
OCA Turnover went up 15x and the SP went up 6%. It was in a solid uptrend anyway and this carried on for a few more weeks.
RYM turnover went up 10x and the SP went down 6%. It was in a short up trend. The day after this 6% SP fall the SP recovered immediately and resumed its up trend.

Today OCA turnover went up 7x and the SP went down 4%. It was in an uptrend.

I think the RYM pattern last year is the most comparable to OCA today. If so , the SP fall today will fully reverse on Monday and the uptrend will continue .


I`m with Snow Leopard and he will be pretty close with his "dream scenario."
12625

[bottomfeeder]

I've got absolutely no idea on why these big trades get done in such a hurry when they can be done over a few weeks at a better price.

This is interesting, On the 29th of May 2020 the NZX was kept open an extra 1/2 hour so the big boys could rebalance their holdings.
ARV Turnover was flat, SP stayed flat. (poor ol` ARV never seems to get any attention)
SUM turnover went up 4x and the SP stayed flat.
OCA Turnover went up 15x and the SP went up 6%. It was in a solid uptrend anyway and this carried on for a few more weeks.
RYM turnover went up 10x and the SP went down 6%. It was in a short up trend. The day after this 6% SP fall the SP recovered immediately and resumed its up trend.

Today OCA turnover went up 7x and the SP went down 4%. It was in an uptrend.

I think the RYM pattern last year is the most comparable to OCA today. If so , the SP fall today will fully reverse on Monday and the uptrend will continue .

I`m with Snow Leopard and he will be pretty close with his "dream scenario."

You have to work with your own judgement, I am not an insider so I dont know really what is coming up, but you have to have some theories based on the apparent irrational or perhaps rational trading patterns. Something is up and I dont know what it is. but so far the pump and dump theory has made me an extra $800. I have 250k shares so I have a vested interest in my theories. Made $800 on the trade but down $22,500 on the drop. So its not all just fantastic news. Unless of course you have the confidence of the pump and dump, and the SP will get back to $1.53 very soon.

[justakiwi]

Unfortunately not.


i'm holding through sharesies, don't think that's an option - will check though

[Beagle]

Extract from closing market report.

Turnover was $424 million due to an extended trading session to allow for the quarterly rebalance of the S&P/NZX and FTSE Russell Indices.

Maybe that had something to do with OCA getting smacked at the close ?

[Panda-NZ-]

made the correct decision to go into SUM instead. :)

[Cyclical]

made the correct decision to go into SUM instead. :)
True. What was it, about a 6.7% spread between their respective market movements today?

[blackie]

here's me 'ol mate Josh giving his thoughts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bl_gOfkVDg

[tim23]

Oh ye of little faith. It is the classic "Pump and Dump" When conducting a takeover, you want to get the initial shares as cheap as possible. If you buy continuously the price keeps increasing. But if all of a sudden you withdraw demand, or even sell, that brings the price back quickly. You have to work with that people. After all as small investors we dont control the market we have to work within, what we think the large players are doing. I sold 10 k at $1.53 an few days ago, and have just bought back the same number at $1.44 today. Thats better than getting a dividend. Same shares back again. Of course I dont have that much confidence so fully in my theory to put all of my holding into this pattern, but every dollar counts. Keep cunning guys, and try and keep one step ahead of the big boys, they are not as smart as they think they are.

Well done but you got lucky

[Snow Leopard]

Sounds like irrational emotional attachment, three large words, to me :p

Imitation is, they say, the sincerest form of flattery.

12626

Calvin & Hobbes (https://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/1988/03/10)

[winner69]

here's me 'ol mate Josh giving his thoughts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bl_gOfkVDg

Hope many watch that and follow Josh ....would push share price up next week

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bl_gOfkVDg[/QUOTE]

Nice work Josh. For what its worth I think a 20% portfolio allocation is fine for a young chap like yourself.

[Panda-NZ-]

Looked into funds like "tqqq" josh? They are available on sharesies.

[Joh13]

Josh has some pretty good content on YouTube, I always watch it. FYI I’m not Josh… don’t even know if he uses ST.

[Brain]

Josh has some pretty good content on YouTube, I always watch it. FYI I’m not Josh… don’t even know if he uses ST.

He would be a mug not to.

[Brain]

Josh has some pretty good content on YouTube, I always watch it. FYI I’m not Josh… don’t even know if he uses ST.

Duplicate post

[Waltzing]

More housing developments and retirement villages sprinkled around the towns in the central North Island.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125469817/house-hunters-from-hamilton-auckland-and-tauranga-buy-into-500m-housing-estate-in-rural-waikato

[kiora]

More housing developments and retirement villages sprinkled around the towns in the central North Island.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125469817/house-hunters-from-hamilton-auckland-and-tauranga-buy-into-500m-housing-estate-in-rural-waikato

Sad
Is this really what we need?

High commuter costs
More productive farm land gone

[dobby41]

Sad
Is this really what we need?

High commuter costs
More productive farm land gone

Just about all the land in the Waikato is (could be) productive so expanding Hamilton will eat productive land also.
The retirement village won't create a lot of 'commuters' but the other houses might.

[Waltzing]

land use pressures in the central North island will increase and perhaps retirement village prices wont decrease in this area along with houses.

[alokdhir]

Hope many watch that and follow Josh ....would push share price up next week

Looks like his followers could do only that much ...now it needs more help ...maybe trying to make higher bottom over last times 137 I reckon ...

[justakiwi]

Anyone got a link to the ASM live stream yet?

[JW Invests]

here's me 'ol mate Josh giving his thoughts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bl_gOfkVDg

Thanks for the shoutout and everyone for the feedback. Looking forward to the ASM this Thursday.

[Grimy]

DRP $1.404. A nice lift to SP today, so looking like the right way to get the dividend this time.

[winner69]

DRP $1.404. A nice lift to SP today, so looking like the right way to get the dividend this time.

Pity the government takes 33% of it

I’d prefer Oceania retained the earnings and turned it even more gold.

[Panda-NZ-]

Pity the government takes 33% of it


Which goes back into the elderly's care and welfare provision as most of NZs spending is on that.

Not great for shareholders though.

[Snow Leopard]

Pity the government takes 33% of it

I’d prefer Oceania retained the earnings and turned it even more gold.

Even though the nice government takes less of me, I also believe that paying out dividends that you can not fully impute is a very silly idea.

[BlackPeter]

Pity the government takes 33% of it

I’d prefer Oceania retained the earnings and turned it even more gold.


Even though the nice government takes less of me, I also believe that paying out dividends that you can not fully impute is a very silly idea.

This makes already three of us (and in agreement :): Maybe worthwhile to raise this issue in the next AGM? Highly tax inefficient way to return shareholders capital ...

[Sideshow Bob]

Pity the government takes 33% of it

I’d prefer Oceania retained the earnings and turned it even more gold.

At least they didn't take 39%.... :confused:

[777]

At least they didn't take 39%.... :confused:

There will be some that have find the extra 6c at tax time next year.

[Ggcc]

This makes already three of us (and in agreement :): Maybe worthwhile to raise this issue in the next AGM? Highly tax inefficient way to return shareholders capital ...
People generally want an income and older New Zealanders love, or depend on dividend bearing stocks. Sure the dividend from Oceania is not something to boast about, but some are dependant on it, rather than selling shares to live. Plus does the company not pay 28% tax on profit regardless if it didn't pay a dividend?

[bottomfeeder]

No imputation at all, aren't we making any taxable profit. Yep have to agree, keep the dividend, pay off debt, have a buyback, wait for some imputation credits.

Not efficient to pay divvies without imps.

[BlackPeter]

People generally want an income and older New Zealanders love, or depend on dividend bearing stocks. Sure the dividend from Oceania is not something to boast about, but some are dependant on it, rather than selling shares to live. Plus does the company not pay 28% tax on profit regardless if it didn't pay a dividend?

LOL - didn't you read the annual report? Have a re-check of page 76 and tell us how much tax they are paying ... and what percentage this would be off the income :p;

However - here is a hint - the fact that their dividend is not imputed clearly shows they don't pay income taxes in NZ. Issue is - a significant part of their "income" are re-valuation gains which they don't need to pay taxes for (due to not realized).

[BlackPeter]

System must have liked my post and duplicated it. I removed the duplicate for easier readability of the thread :p:

[Ggcc]

LOL - didn't you read the annual report? Have a re-check of page 76 and tell us how much tax they are paying ... and what percentage this would be off the income :p;

However - here is a hint - the fact that their dividend is not imputed clearly shows they don't pay income taxes in NZ. Issue is - a significant part of their "income" are re-valuation gains which they don't need to pay taxes for (due to not realized).
I don’t pretend to understand all that is written in the report, but I do understand deferred taxes. On page 77-78.

Anyway my whole thing was more about dividends for people who want/need dividends somewhat guaranteed higher than what banks currently provide. I reinvest mine dividends as I don’t need the cash, but I only pay 17.5% due to earning below $48,000 go figure. I would get out if you don’t like the way they do things

[justakiwi]

All dividends are taxed at 33% when paid out, regardless of your personal tax rate. How do you figure that you only pay 17.5% on yours?


I reinvest mine dividends as I don’t need the cash, but I only pay 17.5% due to earning below $48,000 go figure.

[Ggcc]

All dividends are taxed at 33% when paid out, regardless of your personal tax rate. How do you figure that you only pay 17.5% on yours?
It is taxed at 33% tax, but when my accountant works out my end of year taxes I get back overpaid taxes.

[justakiwi]

Figured that’s what you must have meant. Me too.


It is taxed at 33% tax, but when my accountant works out my end of year taxes I get back overpaid taxes.

[Waltzing]

the fuel that feed the housing market is still burning hot apparently.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300339283/house-prices-havent-yet-got-the-hint-anz

[thegreatestben]

Put my dividend back in at 1.44, no DRP with sharesies...

[Sideshow Bob]

Put my dividend back in at 1.44, no DRP with sharesies...

So did my daughter with her $6.13.....

[Sideshow Bob]

NZX are running their next investor webinar on Tuesday 6th of July at 2pm.

Features Brent Pattison from OCA (and also NZ Automotive Investments and Blis).

[Cool Bear]

LOL - didn't you read the annual report? Have a re-check of page 76 and tell us how much tax they are paying ... and what percentage this would be off the income :p;

However - here is a hint - the fact that their dividend is not imputed clearly shows they don't pay income taxes in NZ. Issue is - a significant part of their "income" are re-valuation gains which they don't need to pay taxes for (due to not realized).

Can someone (SNOW LEOPARD?) please help? Isn't revaluation gains considered capital gains and thus will be excluded (non taxable) income in Dividends payout?

[thegreatestben]

Just incase anyone misses it:
OCA
23/06/2021 15:13
MEETING
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1513 HRS Oceania Healthcare Limited

MEETING: OCA: Annual Meeting of Shareholders - Livestream

OCEANIA HEALTHCARE 2021 ANNUAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS LIVESTREAM

Thursday 24 June 2021
2.00pm (NZ time)

The Annual Meeting of Shareholders of Oceania Healthcare Limited will be held
at South Stand Lounge, Level Four, Eden Park, Reimers Avenue, Kingsland,
Auckland on Thursday 24 June 2021 commencing at 2.00pm.

We have arranged for the meeting to be livestreamed so that shareholders
unable to attend the meeting in person can watch. The livestream will be
available at:
https://livestream.com/vidcom/oceania-healthcare-2021-annual-meeting/

Shareholders are warmly invited to either attend in person, or to watch the
livestream.

ENDS

[Sideshow Bob]

Wasn't there a rumour wasn't going to be streamed??

Hmmmm, only thing is that need to supply your own sausie rolls......:mellow:

[850man]

I'm unable to attend either in person or virtually. If anyone is able to, would really appreciate a summary of what OCA's plan is please and any other observations. In some areas OCA would appear to have an edge over their competitors hoping they have a plan to capitalise on this and grow earnings

[kiwico]

Can someone (SNOW LEOPARD?) please help? Isn't revaluation gains considered capital gains and thus will be excluded (non taxable) income in Dividends payout?

It might be non-taxable to the company but it's taxable when it comes to us as dividend income. That's where imputation credits help as they look to cancel out the tax the company has already paid.

[Snow Leopard]

Can someone (SNOW LEOPARD?) please help? Isn't revaluation gains considered capital gains and thus will be excluded (non taxable) income in Dividends payout?

Two seperate items:

The 'profit' on the revaluation of investment property is not taxed in any form, because of its intended use. :t_up:

Dividends currently have no imputation credits attached because the company otherwise makes no profit. :t_up: :t_up:

[Waltzing]

"Dividends currently have no imputation credits attached because the company otherwise makes no profit."

for goodness sake everyone is trying to keep this market up otherwise this will turn into KPG, a tradable stock only...

try to put anything bad under the bed , err carpet please, errr hide it behind the curtains...

how do you think FoBar sells stocks in the regional centres....

gosh we never saw THAT coming...

you guys are not stock salemen...persons..

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125537921/fewer-investors-in-property-market-after-rule-changes

[justakiwi]

I literally have no idea what you just said. Care to translate?


"Dividends currently have no imputation credits attached because the company otherwise makes no profit."

for goodness sake everyone is trying to keep this market up otherwise this will turn into KPG, a tradable stock only...

try to put anything bad under the bed , err carpet please, errr hide it behind the curtains...

how do you think FoBar sells stocks in the regional centres....

gosh we never saw THAT coming...

you guys are not stock salemen...persons..

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/125537921/fewer-investors-in-property-market-after-rule-changes

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/374475/348914.pdf

Skim read the Chair's and CEO's report. Just a boring restating of obvious things already stated in annual report. No new insights that I can see. Only fresh insight for me is the wonderful parkland in front of the new Waimarie Street development, see page 12 of the attached presentation. Residents could really enjoy walking their dogs around there and enjoy the stunning north facing views out to the Hauraki Gulf. Where do I sign ? Opps, sadly, you need to be 70. Good to have something to look forward too though isn't it :) http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/374475/348914.pdf

Didn't bother attending the annual meeting out of an abundance of caution regarding possible covid delta variant transmission ex Wellington. Might skip the live stream and ask Mrs Beagle to warm up the sausage rolls now :)

[peat]

considerable heavy lifting to do by Directors !!

sounds like the starting point of an increase in Dir's fees ;+)

[winner69]

Said in AR they would complete 221 things in F22. …latest is theybexpect to complete 221 if my maths right.

Suppose thats pretty good

[Beagle]

Said in AR they would complete 221 things in F22. …latest is theybexpect to complete 221 if my maths right.

Suppose thats pretty good

Okay and predicable. I'm bored already...at least NTA is increasing at decent pace since listing unlike some other property company where it declines at pace over the years ;)
Wonder how Mrs B is getting on with the sausage rolls ?

[winner69]

Love the way they always thank us for ongoing support ….warm fuzzy stuff

Suppose if one fronted up with real cash at capital raises that’s supporting them to some extent …otherwise in reality we just a number in the register who gave our cash to somebody who gave up them supporting them….and probably a pain in the butt forbthem

[thegreatestben]

Good question Mav!

[Baa_Baa]

Good question Mav!

Maverick is on a roll! Worth listening just for his questions :)

[winner69]

No pictures …just audio

Takes all the fun out of things ….esp monotonic voices

[Joh13]

Good work Maverick :-) good questions!! Thanks heaps

[Snow Leopard]

I literally have no idea what you just said. Care to translate?


No pictures …just audio

Takes all the fun out of things ….esp monotonic voices

Should help the pair of you:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU-np8zS4HQ

Or not.

[Beagle]

Well...I am certainly going to want a car park space for my new Mercedes-Benz EQS when we move into out stunning independent living north facing apartment at Waimarie Street so I think they have the car parking situation wrong. John should have asked if they're putting in fast chargers.

[Ggcc]

Good question Mav!
Agreed. The question before about wages was not answered that well though. Rather talking how they pay the nurses above requirement $29 for graduate nurses and I believe $35 for senior nurses (correct me if I am wrong on that last fact), but kitchen staff/cleaners are only worth $20-22.50 dependant where they live I guess. The rest are all paid in line with legislation.

[winner69]

Well, are we any the wiser after that hour or so of talking.

[Mudfish]

Good question Mav!

Yip, good questions Mav. When answering your question on CS sales' volumes, Brent didn't sound worried about CS numbers moving around a bit at all. He then went on to state that going forward, 'we are seeing very strong demand for our product.' Was worth listening to just for that alone IMO. Thanks for your efforts Mav. Very much appreciated.

[Baa_Baa]

Well, are we any the wiser after that hour or so of talking.

Yes absolutely wiser. Like so many say, the nuggets come from attending ASM's. The Q&A is most enlightening, personally I wish I could have attended in person but cancelled my flights after the recent covid news.

Hey @Maverick, no need to be nervous, they were very insightful questions and I was pretty happy with the fullness of the answers given. The person who gave them a serve about cap raises vs rights issues had me smiling.

[thegreatestben]

My connection died then I had to take a phone call, right as that person was asking about mandatory something something haha...
Did anyone catch whether the livestream was being recorded?

[Beagle]

Yes absolutely wiser. Like so many say, the nuggets come from attending ASM's. The Q&A is most enlightening, personally I wish I could have attended in person but cancelled my flights after the recent covid news.

Hey @Maverick, no need to be nervous, they were very insightful questions and I was pretty happy with the fullness of the answers given. The person who gave them a serve about cap raises vs rights issues had me smiling.

Don't blame you. I didn't attend for the same reason out of an abundance of caution.

[Beagle]

Well, are we any the wiser after that hour or so of talking.

Apparently not, the market is having a BIG yawn.

[winner69]

Hey maverick good questions but answers a bit vague I thought

What was body language like - enthusiastic glad to.be here? Or the well I'm glad that annual chore is over?

[Beagle]

Hey maverick good questions but answers a bit vague I thought

What was body language like - enthusiastic glad to.be here? Or the well I'm glad that annual chore is over?

Mav's big day out...don't expect a reply anytime soon as he's too busy schmoozing with Liz and Greg.

[Greekwatchdog]

Been in a meeting of my own. Was there any indication given on how Quarter 1 sales have gone. Thanks GWD.

[winner69]

Well...I am certainly going to want a car park space for my new Mercedes-Benz EQS when we move into out stunning independent living north facing apartment at Waimarie Street so I think they have the car parking situation wrong. John should have asked if they're putting in fast chargers.

Good points Beagle

You'd think that a PEOPLE, PLANET, PROSPERITY ethos would include encouraging residents getting EVs and providing charging facilities

Talking of the PLANET at least they are honest by saying in the Annual Report ' ......delaying wide-scale gas boiler conversion is advisable while gas prices remain low.' ....hmmm

[winner69]

Been in a meeting of my own. Was there any indication given on how Quarter 1 sales have gone. Thanks GWD.

If there was it would have been a slip of the tongue while chatting post meeting

Oceania not in habit of giving guidance / indications

After all it is a long term story and updates evry half year are more than sufficient

Trust them

[Beagle]

If there was it would have been a slip of the tongue while chatting post meeting

Oceania not in habit of giving guidance / indications

After all it is a long term story and updates evry half year are more than sufficient

Trust them

Very true that. NTA has increased very nicely over the years.

Any thoughts and reflections you'd care to share on the meeting Maverick ?

[Greekwatchdog]

Thanks W69. Stuck in bottom draw not too be seen for 5 years.

[Maverick]

Well all.....just a quick response from the meeting from some mall somewhere in Auckland.
The meeting was perhaps the most positive and helpful I've ever attended.
The directors were free and willing to engage after the show.
Taken away a good 10 nuggets from several private discussions.
I'm not prepared to go into detail now and maybe not even when I get home but suffice to say that the directors, the vibe amongst them and some figures mentioned privately are most impressive.
The overall single summary from the multiple interactions is that things are exceeding expectations.
I know the oca numbers well and I didnt detect a scrap of BS . In fact these guys really are knowledgable and accurate.
Brent was most impressive on and off display.
I remain just as bullish on this company as I have been.

I'll no doubt get back next week to spill a few beans ( but not all as some I think are meant to stay private).

Disc. One very , very happy holder.

[justakiwi]

That’s great to hear! Thanks for the update, and it was nice to hear your questions at the meeting, and put a voice to your name :)


Well all.....just a quick response from the meeting from some mall somewhere in Auckland.
The meeting was perhaps the most positive and helpful I've ever attended.
The directors were free and willing to engage after the show.
Taken away a good 10 nuggets from several private discussions.
I'm not prepared to go into detail now and maybe not even when I get home but suffice to say that the directors, the vibe amongst them and some figures mentioned privately are most impressive.
The overall single summary from the multiple interactions is that things are exceeding expectations.
I know the oca numbers well and I didnt detect a scrap of BS . In fact these guys really are knowledgable and accurate.
Brent was most impressive on and off display.
I remain just as bullish on this company as I have been.

I'll no doubt get back next week to spill a few beans ( but not all as some I think are meant to stay private).

Disc. One very , very happy holder.

[jimdog31]

Well all.....just a quick response from the meeting from some mall somewhere in Auckland.
The meeting was perhaps the most positive and helpful I've ever attended.
The directors were free and willing to engage after the show.
Taken away a good 10 nuggets from several private discussions.
I'm not prepared to go into detail now and maybe not even when I get home but suffice to say that the directors, the vibe amongst them and some figures mentioned privately are most impressive.
The overall single summary from the multiple interactions is that things are exceeding expectations.
I know the oca numbers well and I didnt detect a scrap of BS . In fact these guys really are knowledgable and accurate.
Brent was most impressive on and off display.
I remain just as bullish on this company as I have been.

I'll no doubt get back next week to spill a few beans ( but not all as some I think are meant to stay private).

Disc. One very , very happy holder.

I appreciate it Mav, but wouldn't those conversations be in breach of their disclosure duties?!

[Maverick]

I appreciate it Mav, but wouldn't those conversations be in breach of their disclosure duties?!

85% of human comunication is not the words used and some numbers used may or may not be " breaching" anything. The directors were careful but slips always happen and I wouldnt want to discourage that.

[jimdog31]

85% of human comunication is not the words used and some numbers used may or may not be " breaching" anything. The directors were careful but slips always happen and I wouldnt want to discourage that.

Haha so there was plenty of wink, wink, nudge nudge.......

[Beagle]

Thanks for attending, asking questions and for your feedback Mav, much appreciated. OCA is a sound way to build wealth over the long term. I'm expecting good eps growth in FY23 and beyond, not very much in FY22 but this is a good year to be building one's position gradually for the future while the shares are at a very modest premium to NAV.

My concerns about human resource cost growing much faster than Govt funding remain but the ongoing transformation of OCA's business model with gradually overtake this headwind over time. Slow and steady wins the race !

Hound dog's rating : Accumulate on any untoward share price weakness.

P.S. I think I've found a new home for my KPG money realized the other day. Very safe bet that OCA's NTA growth is going to outperform KPG's NTA growth in the next 5 years.

[Curly]

Thx Mav, looking forward to your up coming posts. OCA very under rated by market currently when you look at Arvida sp. at one point only 20c separated the two. Now its around 50c. Just received OCA div advice, nice.

[winner69]

Haha so there was plenty of wink, wink, nudge nudge.......

Must have a lot of wink wink nudge nudge after all as those who got the nuggets push the share price up today

Hope it continues next week